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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by a bet

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Speaker 1: three six Vibe. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, live from

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Speaker 1: my Tommy John home studio. I'm joined as always by

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Speaker 1: my co host Mike Companion, Mike Badra, my BFF Professional

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Speaker 1: Better Simon Hunter, Elosaimon.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Chad. How are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Dude? I feel like I'm excited for the show because

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Speaker 1: by the end of yesterday, you know, the rhythm is

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Speaker 1: like Monday, we're digging in deep. Tuesday, we're talking about everything.

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Speaker 1: But by the end of Wednesday, I've done a lot

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Speaker 1: more research, as have you. By about five o'clock yesterday afternoon,

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Speaker 1: I just felt like the whole puzzle came together and

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Speaker 1: I had such clarity on every game, and you can

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Speaker 1: see what I put into the app already, Like I

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Speaker 1: put in a bunch of picks yesterday based on how

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Speaker 1: lines were moving and where I thought they were going

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Speaker 1: to go, and what I was seeing in betting percentages

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Speaker 1: and some of the matchup research I had done. I

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Speaker 1: slacked you and Mitch this morning and I'm like, I'm

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Speaker 1: not mushing it. I don't care. I feel strong and

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Speaker 1: I feel powerful. That's how I feel.

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Speaker 2: I love the confidence.

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Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Week ten Best Bets Episodes. Simon

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Speaker 1: and I will narrow down our five picks in the

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Speaker 1: Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest

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Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five. Sign up now still

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Speaker 1: wins some weekly prizes Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot Com. We

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Speaker 1: will get into our foxhul We'll give out our Tommy

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Speaker 1: John big Ball's bet of the week. We'll discuss Simon's

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Speaker 1: biggest bets are boosted money line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog

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Speaker 1: Round Robin, and so much more. Bets are rolling in,

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Speaker 1: lines are moving, Decisions need to be made. As our

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Speaker 1: volume podcasts, Boss Colin Coward like to say.

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Speaker 3: There's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code.

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Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars

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Speaker 1: to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.

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Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. A bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. All right, it is Thursday,

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Speaker 1: and like we to do like we'd like to do

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Speaker 1: on Thursday. We'll hear how the wise guys are responding

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Speaker 1: to our Tuesday conversation. We move lines, and the wise

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Speaker 1: guys like to tell us what we're doing right, what

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Speaker 1: we're doing wrong. Simon, it's time four sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range.

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Speaker 4: Somebody's saying, maybe what you do man, Let's go the

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Speaker 4: biggest disagreement off the top chat.

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Speaker 2: I like the rams. The professionals love Miami.

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Speaker 1: I'm so glad you said that. And we're like, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go deeper into that one it's when I was

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Speaker 1: doing my notes yesterday, it was the one like I

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Speaker 1: couldn't wait, it's clear fox Like we can say right

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Speaker 1: now if we're doing that, it's a foxle because I

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Speaker 1: knew the wise guys. Love this game? Go ahead?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I love it because it's giving me a better number.

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Speaker 4: One of Rams seam I love, so I'm happy for it. Uh,

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Speaker 4: they got the value. I guess at two and a half.

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Speaker 4: That was a good number to them. That was a

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Speaker 4: key number for them. I get the movement and the

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Speaker 4: bed for them, but I just view it as these

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Speaker 4: are two totally different teams going to totally different directions.

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Speaker 4: The Rams last week couldn't have played any worse, but

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Speaker 4: Stafford showed up in a big spot with a big throw,

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Speaker 4: and that's another reason I love them.

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Speaker 2: This game.

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Speaker 4: It's just it's really about Stafford and yeah a game

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Speaker 4: like you said, we're gonna dive into it, so I

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Speaker 4: don't want to spoil too much. But man, was I

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Speaker 4: like calling everyone figured out what the hell is going

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Speaker 4: on here? Why is this number moving so much? So

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Speaker 4: that was definitely a shocker. After our show Tuesday, I

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Speaker 4: don't know what I was doing, but I remember I

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Speaker 4: checked up the app, the Action app again, all of

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Speaker 4: a sudden, I saw that it was down to two

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Speaker 4: and then I saw was moving to.

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Speaker 2: One and a half. I was like, WHOA, is someone

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Speaker 2: hurt that I missed something?

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Speaker 4: So that was definitely a game that was pretty shock

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Speaker 4: and all the movement on that money on for that

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Speaker 4: Rams and Miami game.

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Speaker 2: The next one is the Jets. We talked about.

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Speaker 4: I didn't even know what's going on here the professionals

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Speaker 4: of the Jets. So that's a game we might have

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Speaker 4: to take. I've been I've kind of been talked into

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Speaker 4: the Jets here in this spot at this number. So

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Speaker 4: that's again I'm looking forward to talking to Cowboys. We

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Speaker 4: loved and a half. Still a couple sevens out there.

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Speaker 4: The professionals love that number, especially because a J. Brown

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Speaker 4: might not play. We know how bad that offense is

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Speaker 4: without him. Hurts is banged up, right. He didn't practice

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Speaker 4: this week. Devonte Smith didn't practice either, So there is

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Speaker 4: reason to take this big number with this Cowboys team,

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Speaker 4: even though it is no doubt about it. Cooper rush

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Speaker 4: behind this bad offensive line. So that's that's gonna be

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Speaker 4: a fun game to break down again.

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Speaker 2: When you loved the Colts. Professionals love it. We saw

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Speaker 2: that touch three, three and a half of a couple

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Speaker 2: of books. Now it's back up to four. Still love it.

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Speaker 2: If you can get the four right. We talk all

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Speaker 2: the time about key numbers.

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Speaker 4: That seems like that's gonna be a game that's gonna

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Speaker 4: either land right on three or right on four. Right,

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Speaker 4: that feels like a really tough game, especially for a

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Speaker 4: desperate's Colts team. But yeah, that was not that shock

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Speaker 4: and the last one a game I really liked.

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Speaker 2: You really like the Saints.

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Speaker 4: No shock here, right, the pros versus shows and this

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Speaker 4: is this matchup. It's kind of the same thing with

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Speaker 4: this Houston and Detroit game, even though we're on Detroit.

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Speaker 4: That's just exact same thing as this one.

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Speaker 2: It's all professionals on the dog Home Dog, and it's

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Speaker 2: all the public coming on this really team shocked to

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Speaker 2: no One. So I was hoping this would go up.

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Speaker 2: We've seen a couple force pop with this Saints number.

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Speaker 2: That would be great for us.

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Speaker 4: I would love to get more value here, just because

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Speaker 4: we both agree this Saints team is banged up.

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Speaker 2: They are not that good.

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Speaker 4: We're really just playing the spot in the number here,

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Speaker 4: So any more value we can get on this number,

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Speaker 4: I feel more confident about it. But at the end

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Speaker 4: of the day, it's it's a nice spot to be

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Speaker 4: to be fading this Falcons team on a home divisional dog.

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Speaker 1: So here's what I love. The Jets to me were

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Speaker 1: the Jets were the swing state of this of this

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Speaker 1: particular slate to me, whereas like, bye, you know, we

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Speaker 1: were wishy washy on it.

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Speaker 4: I know, read on it. Honestly, I made Cardinals a favorite.

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Speaker 4: I thought they were the right side. But yeah, I

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Speaker 4: was definitely wrong on that.

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Speaker 1: We We're going to go deeper, and by by the

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Speaker 1: end of yesterday, I'm like, I feel like I like

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Speaker 1: the Jets here. So I'm glad we're going to have

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Speaker 1: a conversation about it. The first game up. Let's get

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Speaker 1: into the slate. This was your signmon, says game the

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at two and a half plus two and

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Speaker 1: a half against Washington. It moved from three to two

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Speaker 1: and a half. As you predicted.

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Speaker 2: We all talked too much. Sharp dues can just see

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Speaker 2: it because sharp dues don't care what you say anyway.

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Speaker 2: They just watching. You know what I mean.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised it wasn't part of the sharp

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Speaker 1: calls Rundown. I'm a little worried about it because I

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Speaker 1: love the Steelers. Here it's a public dog. But what

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Speaker 1: I do like with this game is forty eight hours

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Speaker 1: ago it was the money was sort of split. Now

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Speaker 1: there's a preponderance of money on the Steelers, and there's

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Speaker 1: more money on the Steelers than there is tickets. So

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Speaker 1: like when we look in the action app, we see

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Speaker 1: the betting ticket percentage difference and we see the money

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Speaker 1: percentage difference, sixty one percent of the bets are on

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Speaker 1: the Steelers, So that's the public is the bets. Sixty

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Speaker 1: seven percent of the money is on the Steelers. So

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Speaker 1: what that tells me is that while all of that

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Speaker 1: sixty seven percent captures the public betting market, there's also

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a lyft because the wise guys

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Speaker 1: came in, which is why the line moved from three

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Speaker 1: to two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Simon, there are twenty seven teams in Pro football and

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Speaker 2: then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I didn't throw it in there just because it's

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Speaker 4: not a game that like it's consent, Like all the

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Speaker 4: pros are betting right. I've talked to multiple groups and

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Speaker 4: it just seems like it's it's us and a couple

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Speaker 4: other guys that like this spot where a couple of

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Speaker 4: people are like, I'm either on Washington or I'm not

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Speaker 4: bet this at all, because Washington has been good to

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Speaker 4: the betters, right, Like most pros you talk to, you know,

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Speaker 4: they love this Washington team, just like we talked about

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Speaker 4: we love Washington too.

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Speaker 2: But at some point we have to sell at this value.

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Speaker 4: And you know, right now, Jane Daniels, who's five and

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Speaker 4: oh is a favorite against the spread, and straight.

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Speaker 2: Up like, come on now, that's it's when does it

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Speaker 2: go the other way?

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Speaker 4: This is insane. I don't think we've seen anything like this.

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Speaker 4: I mean, everyone know better than me. I can't remember

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Speaker 4: the last time seeing a rookie do this. Maybe Roethlisberger

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Speaker 4: or someone rain him like that. But to be five

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Speaker 4: and oh from the start of the season like he

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Speaker 4: started game one of the year. It's not like Perdy

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Speaker 4: coming in late in the season on to a great team.

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Speaker 4: This is a guy uplifting this team this season to

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Speaker 4: be five and oh against the spread. You know, eventually

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Speaker 4: the value is gonna be too much, so I agree

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Speaker 4: with you. I was shocked this wasn't a more professional,

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Speaker 4: better heavy thing, But like you just said, the money

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Speaker 4: says otherwise. Seems like there is a lot of professional

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Speaker 4: money coming in.

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Speaker 2: So I still like it.

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Speaker 4: But you, like you just said, you probably gonna have

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Speaker 4: to take this at two and a half in the contest, brother,

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Speaker 4: I mean, that's where it's going to be at.

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Speaker 2: And it's like, I really like it still, but a

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Speaker 2: few have other games you like more.

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Speaker 1: I totally get it, But right now it's the top

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Speaker 1: five for me.

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Speaker 3: I get there.

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Speaker 1: It's really going to be the Jets on the outside,

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Speaker 1: and we'll see if we there for me. But what's

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Speaker 1: interesting about the Commanders is, and I understand why there's

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Speaker 1: a sentiment to bet on Jayden Daniels we've passed through,

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Speaker 1: similar to CJ. Stroud last year, that all right, his

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Speaker 1: performance is fluky into his performance is real, and he's

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Speaker 1: made what was supposed to be a terrible offensive line

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Speaker 1: look better. He's made mediocre talent outside of Terry McLaurin

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Speaker 1: look better. What's really interesting to me is the Marshawn

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Speaker 1: Latimer trade. Not that this is something that moves the

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Speaker 1: line or gives them any more of an advantage against

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Speaker 1: the Steelers team that you know they're outside talent as

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Speaker 1: George Pickens and now Mike Williams. It's because the Commanders

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Speaker 1: are recognizing the new reality of the NFL, which is,

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Speaker 1: you've got a high performing rookie on a rookie contract.

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Speaker 1: This could be their window. Like the Lions are clearly

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Speaker 1: best in the NFC, but after that, the Eagles, they're

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Speaker 1: competing with the Commanders. The Niners they've been struggling, so

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Speaker 1: the Commanders see like in the standings, they got a

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Speaker 1: shot and they got a quarterback whose window is wide open.

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Speaker 1: You go and get the best available talent. Like to me,

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Speaker 1: that speaks to their confidence, which also is you know

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Speaker 1: you said the other day you love this commander's team.

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Speaker 1: It's hard not to love him for that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but at the end of the day, like we

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Speaker 4: both love Pittsburgh and it's all about Tomlin and him

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Speaker 4: being twenty six and six straight up against rookie quarterbacks,

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Speaker 4: like he just shines in this exact spot and it's

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Speaker 4: a rare opportunity. It's Tomlin as a dog against a

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Speaker 4: rookie quarterback, so it's I can't pass on it.

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Speaker 1: Tomlin is a road dog sixty one percent against the spread,

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Speaker 1: most profitable coach in the NFL the past twenty years.

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Speaker 1: I also think, and I said this on Tuesday, this

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Speaker 1: is the best defense the Commanders have faced. The best

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Speaker 1: the Steelers stats or mediocre, but TJ. Watt, Alex high

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Speaker 1: Smith on the edges playing together there, that's easily the

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Speaker 1: best combination. Jayden Danley's face.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they're basically not that this game will decide them

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Speaker 4: win the division, but they literally have this game and

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Speaker 4: then they play the Egos in a short week like

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Speaker 4: they could in the next two games basically lock up

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Speaker 4: the division in a playoff spot.

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Speaker 2: If they can perform.

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Speaker 4: In these spots, and it's the toughest spot you can

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Speaker 4: possibly imagine. You're going against Tomlin, then you're going against

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Speaker 4: the Eagles on the road. It's it's pretty I mean,

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Speaker 4: we've had high praise for Jane Daniels. I know people

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Speaker 4: talked about MVP. This is literally where he can make

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Speaker 4: himself actual into the MVP conversation. He wins back to

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Speaker 4: back these type of games, and what we perceive is

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Speaker 4: I think he's gonna lose both of them, just incredibly

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Speaker 4: tough spots. It's just this feels like a big, big

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Speaker 4: deal of the tone setter for Washington for the rest

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Speaker 4: of the season.

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Speaker 2: These next two games.

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman will be taking his son Owen to his

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Speaker 1: first NFL game Eagles Commanders next Thursday night.

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Speaker 2: That's sick. That's good.

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Speaker 3: Cool is that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: How cool is that?

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Speaker 1: We have a he just turned eighteen. We're going to

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Speaker 1: Nix Bowls at MSG Wednesday night. Take the train down

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Speaker 1: in Philly late Thursday, go to dinner with my kid

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Speaker 1: who's in Philly at Drexel. Then we go to the game,

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Speaker 1: and then we get up the next morning going to

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Speaker 1: visit University of Maryland and that night going to the

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Speaker 1: Maryland Marquette basketball game. Three games, three nights, blowing it out,

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Speaker 1: super friend style.

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Speaker 4: Look at you that and your kid miss school? I

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Speaker 4: think the like time I ever miss school is and

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Speaker 4: I was gonna suspended. So prop Steve for being a

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Speaker 4: cool dad.

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Speaker 1: Dude. It's it's he's a senior in high school. He's

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Speaker 1: applied to all the colleges, like three days, not gonna matter.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo at in three days to go see three premier

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Speaker 1: sporting events. You gotta do it.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm jealous.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo at Indianapolis. We just talked about it. This was

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Speaker 1: your second shot, for Simon says, and on Tuesday we

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Speaker 1: were still digging into it. I don't think we had

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Speaker 1: the same confidence you pegged it as Simon says. Really,

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Speaker 1: I think we looked at it as a by low

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Speaker 1: Sell high. We were selling high on the road fa

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Speaker 1: that coming off the last second division win, that puts

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Speaker 1: them in the driver's seat for their division. Basically in November.

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Speaker 1: You know, Josh Allen is odds on for MVP. Their

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds are improving. We're buying low on a

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Speaker 1: team that looked really bad against the Vikings in prime time.

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Speaker 1: But this line actually got up to four and a

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Speaker 1: half and then it's like it got to four and

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Speaker 1: a half and it was streaking down the second it hit. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: four and a half, Like bet three six five is

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Speaker 1: at four, but a lot of places are at three

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Speaker 1: and a half. I now not only like it as

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Speaker 1: a by low Sell high. I like the matchup too.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that's playing into your thinking here.

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Speaker 4: Love the matchup and all the other bs off field, right,

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Speaker 4: all those stuff we always talk about the look ahead

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Speaker 4: spot that the Chiefs coming up. I mean, this is

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Speaker 4: like we just talked about the Washington decide in this season.

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Speaker 4: This is like this little run here will decide if

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Speaker 4: the Bills can get that one seed. Right, they got

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Speaker 4: the Colts here, then the Chiefs, then a bye, then

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Speaker 4: they have.

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Speaker 2: Forty nine ers rams Detroit. I mean, talk about.

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Speaker 4: An insane, brutal run here, a little stretch for this

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Speaker 4: Bills team. And me and you talk about like this

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Speaker 4: Bill's team. We think they're really good. We've seen them

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Speaker 4: struggle this season against teams that are kind of at

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Speaker 4: the same level as them.

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Speaker 2: Man. That's what this to me will really decide here

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Speaker 2: is are the Colts an actual playoff team or do

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Speaker 2: what we see to start the year was kind of

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Speaker 2: fluking a lot of luck with them because you said

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Speaker 2: it right, they're four and zero. I guess it's spread

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Speaker 2: at home this year.

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Speaker 4: And me and you have been a lot on the

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Speaker 4: I've been on those games and that we always felt

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Speaker 4: like we got away with one, especially that week one

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Speaker 4: against Houston with Anthony Richardson.

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Speaker 2: So we we love this spot.

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Speaker 4: It's also this the the whole thing of Flacco is

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Speaker 4: not as bad as he was in that previous game,

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Speaker 4: like that was the worst start we've seen by Flaco

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Speaker 4: in the last two years, including you know what he's

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Speaker 4: obviously doing with that Browns team last year, and looking

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Speaker 4: at the matchup with this Bills team. You can't attack

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Speaker 4: the middlefield. You can run it down their throat if

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Speaker 4: you can establish it, and that's what the Colts.

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Speaker 2: Want to do there.

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Speaker 4: That's that's literally what their identity is built around. This

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Speaker 4: team is the basically right down your throat. Once you

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Speaker 4: have the safety step up, they just take deep shots.

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Speaker 4: And we've seen that even Anthony Richardson now Joe Flacko

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Speaker 4: is happy to run that same exact type of offense

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Speaker 4: where it's like, okay, bring the safeties down to stop

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Speaker 4: the run. That's when we'll attack these teams deep and offensively.

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Speaker 4: Obviously we're scared of this Bills team. You know they're

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Speaker 4: going to be able to move the ball. It's ken

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Speaker 4: the Colts keep up with them offensively. I think that

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Speaker 4: can in this matchup. So another game, me and you

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Speaker 4: were just really playing the number. I think this number

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Speaker 4: should be three. It's four to three and a half.

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Speaker 4: We're happy to still take the four if you can

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Speaker 4: find it so.

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Speaker 1: Uh you mentioned the offense for the Bills. The strength

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Speaker 1: of the Bills is their rushing game, and Ian Coleman

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Speaker 1: is going to be out. Amari Cooper's you know, has

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Speaker 1: not been playing, so their ability to throw the ball

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Speaker 1: is a little bit diminished. But the one thing that

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Speaker 1: I do think the Colts have been getting better at

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Speaker 1: is stopping the run. Right since Buckner came back. We've

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Speaker 1: seen Stuart Grover Stewart, like how dominant he was against

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs the other night. I do think I'm not

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Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, but this past weekend he played really

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Speaker 1: well against the Vikings. I do think that's an opportunity

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Speaker 1: for them. And on the flip side, you just mentioned

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Speaker 1: it like the Colts running game offensively, that's their strength.

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Speaker 1: Like they are fourth and one yards per play, fourth

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Speaker 1: in rushes of ten plus yards, eighth in rush yards

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Speaker 1: over expected, the number one ranked offensive line for run

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Speaker 1: blocking according to Pro Football Focus. The Bill's rush d

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Speaker 1: is just not very good. So a lot of matchup

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Speaker 1: stuff in addition to the spot, in addition to the

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Speaker 1: public perception, like all the things that we like to

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Speaker 1: bet from public perception to number to match up, our

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Speaker 1: lining up here, I can see this definitely making the contest.

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Speaker 1: By the way, By the way, road favorites with a

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Speaker 1: winning percentage of seventy five or more seventy five percent

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Speaker 1: or more the past decade forty three percent against the spread.

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Speaker 1: That said, let's not forget this season road favorites are

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Speaker 1: what are they sixteen games over five hundred against the

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Speaker 1: spread this season, best ever the past five weeks forty

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Speaker 1: six twenty nine and one against the spread road favorites.

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Speaker 1: So our favorites overall, so like the trends are valuable

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Speaker 1: for historical context, has not been a play this year,

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Speaker 1: which has been part of our struggles.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 4: It's been brutal, but it's like I always say that

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Speaker 4: I don't want to overadjust because it's like once we do,

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Speaker 4: that's when it comes back around the other side. And

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Speaker 4: that's that's something I tried doing last week and it

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Speaker 4: clearly didn't work. So I'm just trying to stick to

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Speaker 4: it where it's like, can't overadjust, They'll come back around.

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Speaker 4: It's just been a little bit of a fluky year

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Speaker 4: with everything that's going on.

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Speaker 1: I think it's worth explaining the idea of adjustment. I

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Speaker 1: don't want to make Matt Mitchell's head pop off, because

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Speaker 1: I know he wants us to keep moving. But I've

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Speaker 1: seen like some of these comments, and I do go

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Speaker 1: and like rewatch the shows and I will see the

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Speaker 1: comments in the YouTube channel on that shed No, and

401
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Speaker 1: like we get stuff on Twitter, and so people are

402
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Speaker 1: asking like why aren't you adjusting and things like that,

403
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 1: So bookmakers don't overadjust like you can't and your power rating,

404
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 1: just explain for like sixty seconds why it's a bad

405
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Speaker 1: idea to overadjust based on four weeks six week sample

406
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Speaker 1: sizes of data.

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Speaker 4: I do say, you do want to adjust, but what

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Speaker 4: you're saying about overadjusting is just your basically just totally

409
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Speaker 4: throwing out everything you believe in you work on to

410
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Speaker 4: go with what's happening right now. And we always talk about,

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Speaker 4: like the thing that makes the professionals is better is

412
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Speaker 4: different than the public better is they don't overreact to

413
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Speaker 4: small samples. Right, You don't overreact to just you know,

414
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Speaker 4: three four bad weeks, which is very rare if it happens.

415
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Speaker 4: I can't totally throw out what's gotten me to where

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Speaker 4: I'm at in life.

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Speaker 2: I'm betting and I can't just throw away all the

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Speaker 2: data numbers.

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Speaker 4: I always use to try to adjust it now, Like

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Speaker 4: I mean you talked years ago, the spread offense totally

421
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Speaker 4: changed the NFL. I was ahead of it, right, I

422
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Speaker 4: was using a college model to do professional betting, and

423
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Speaker 4: it was a big adjustment. Where like you know, guys

424
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Speaker 4: who have only strictly bet NFL, they need to adjust

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Speaker 4: to the spread coming into the NFL. Like that was

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Speaker 4: a huge change from twenty ten to say twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 4: twenty eighteen. Then we saw the read option came in,

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Speaker 4: which is again you had to adjust your model to

429
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Speaker 4: these running quarterbacks are running these read options.

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Speaker 2: So that stuff I do.

431
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Speaker 4: Make adjustment to to the the home field mean you

432
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Speaker 4: talked about, I made adjustment to that. I moved it

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Speaker 4: down for most guys had it at three. Some teams

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Speaker 4: I only have them at one and a half for

435
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Speaker 4: home field advantage, like good teams, I make them two points.

436
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Speaker 4: That's a big adjustment. Us just blindly betting these road

437
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,959
Speaker 4: favorites because they've been covering too.

438
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:19,400
Speaker 2: That's too much of an over adjustment.

439
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 4: So that to me is the biggest thing of we

440
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 4: agree with it. Maybe it's I don't put as much

441
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 4: on some of these lines. But it's like like the

442
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 4: Rams last week that honestly before that wouldn't have been

443
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 4: one of my bigger bets. Right the Rams are on

444
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 4: the road in a divisional game against a desperate Seahawks team,

445
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,120
Speaker 4: But I adjusted this year being like, Okay, this shouldn't

446
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 4: just be minus one half, this should be three because

447
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 4: these road teams have been performing better divisionally. But on

448
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 4: the flip side, you have games like the Saints, which

449
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 4: was a total miss right against Carolina, where it's like,

450
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 4: that's where I did over adjust that number. I should

451
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 4: have made it six and a half. I made it

452
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:54,479
Speaker 4: seven and a half. So I was like, Okay, I

453
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 4: like this number for the Saints team that was way off.

454
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 4: So that's been the biggest issue with me is I'm trying,

455
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 4: like you talked about earlier the year, the divisional home

456
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 4: dogs have not been hitting like they have before me

457
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 4: in the past, and it's been hard not to overadjust

458
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 4: to that because it's what's happening this season. I'm not

459
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 4: trying to just that basically what happened off the previous years.

460
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 4: I am trying to bring into the.

461
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 2: New data of like, Okay, my old way of thinking

462
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 2: is not what it used to be. I need to

463
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 2: adjust to what the market is doing right now.

464
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,880
Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned home divisional or divisional dogs. I'm

465
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 1: glad you mentioned road favorites. We do have a road

466
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 1: favorite that we're going to talk about. I love it.

467
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 1: We talked about it on Tuesday. I love it even more.

468
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 1: We'll get to that. The next bed up is a

469
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 1: divisional game Denver Kansas City. Kansas City is an eight

470
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 1: point favorite. We end in hod a bit on Tuesday

471
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 1: because of how bad the Broncos looked against the Ravens.

472
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 1: And excuse me, I feel like we were a little

473
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: bit bummed because the line was at nine and a

474
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 1: half on Sunday when we first talked about it. We

475
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 1: were hoping it would get to and I think because

476
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,400
Speaker 1: of that, we missed a little bit of the take

477
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: a bite at the nine and a half. This is

478
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,680
Speaker 1: a Pros Joe's game. The Pros are on the Broncos,

479
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 1: the Joe's are on the Chiefs. It went from eight

480
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: and a half down to eight yesterday. It was actually

481
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. I bet at eight and

482
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 1: a half. It's in the Action Network AAP. It's now

483
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 1: at eight. I like the Broncos here. I'm not afraid

484
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 1: of it in any way.

485
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 2: I'm not either. I've come around on it because I

486
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 2: was with you.

487
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 4: I honestly wanted to be on the Chiefs here, but

488
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 4: because I do think the Hopkins addition, it's it's a

489
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 4: big deal to this team, like he is. Clearly, once

490
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 4: he builds a rhythm with Mahomes, that's gonna be a

491
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 4: game shot.

492
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 2: Because right now him and Kelsey are peaking like that.

493
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 4: Since Rice has got injured every week, Kelsey has just

494
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,360
Speaker 4: gotten better and more comfortable than Mahomes. You can really

495
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 4: tell that, like whatever happened earlier the year, he clearly

496
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 4: came not I don't want to say out of shape

497
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,680
Speaker 4: into the season, but it wasn't the else we all knew,

498
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 4: and we all thought it was the age thing. Now

499
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 4: we've seen him in good shape, it's it was not

500
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 4: an age thing. I mean, Kelsey is back to being

501
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 4: a top three tight end. So that that s hesitation

502
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 4: of me is that I don't know if the books

503
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 4: have adjusted enough to this. I mean, you talked about

504
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 4: that bon Nicks was just I don't want to say

505
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 4: unlucky against the Ravens, but it kind of felt like

506
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 4: they were right, like all the little things that could

507
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 4: have gone wrong went wrong for them, and the public

508
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 4: racted over too too much to it.

509
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 2: So at eight and a half trot, I would would

510
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 2: take it. But it's down to seven and a half

511
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: in a lot of books now.

512
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, I think it'll be interesting in

513
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: the contest.

514
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 4: Right, And at what point do I want to take

515
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 4: the Chiefs, Like if this touch is seven, I'd much

516
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 4: rather have more money on the Chiefs of the seven.

517
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 2: I would the BRONC was eight and a half just.

518
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 4: Because we did see last week they looked like a

519
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 4: young team that had beaten up on bad teams and

520
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 4: once they once they played a veteran good team, they

521
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 4: did get dominated. I mean, Lamar he could have done

522
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 4: whatever he wanted against that defense, Like once he figured

523
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 4: them out, it was it was totally over for them.

524
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 4: So that's why I'm happy this is not giving one

525
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 4: of our five and we don't have to because I'm

526
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 4: I did bet the BRONC was eight and a half,

527
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 4: But if it does get to seven, that's where all

528
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 4: my money will be on this Chiefs team.

529
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 1: When I was looking at our five, this was this

530
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: is either last one in or first one out to me,

531
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: and the Jets are sort of the the replacement.

532
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd rather the Jets on them.

533
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: I will say Division favorites plus seven seven or more

534
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 1: covering it just a forty nine percent clip the past

535
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 1: twenty years. We know Mahomes record as a favorite of

536
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 1: more than three.

537
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 2: Short rest too this week short.

538
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 1: Rest more than three tweaked ankle. I was watching some

539
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: video yesterday, Like at the end of that game, he

540
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 1: was really limping. He you know, he was barely moving

541
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 1: on that ankle. I know he says it'll be fine,

542
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: he'll be ready. But I also like teams coming off

543
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: a blowout plus points fifty seven percent against spread the

544
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 1: following week, a lot of a lot of trends and

545
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,719
Speaker 1: a lot of on field stuff to favor the Broncos.

546
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Broncos, don't. Evan just had a good note

547
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 4: in our app. It's like, and they're off ot in

548
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 4: a short week.

549
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:14,640
Speaker 1: It's yeah, that's what I mean.

550
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 2: Man, I had to think of Broncos, don't I.

551
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 1: Yes, Like I would not be betting the Chiefs here

552
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,880
Speaker 1: at all. Look, the Chiefs. The Chiefs are dominant. They've

553
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 1: won what fourteen fifteen in a row. But they win

554
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 1: their games by five or six points per game. You know,

555
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 1: they're methodical. They are not throwing the ball downfield twenty

556
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 1: plus yards explosive plays. That's just not their game. And

557
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,919
Speaker 1: I agree with you with DeAndre Hopkins. They're a different

558
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: team with him playing, but he's not an explosive downfield receiver.

559
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:51,360
Speaker 1: What he is is one more outlet who knows how

560
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: to play in space and find the pocket to give

561
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes a target.

562
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 4: So he's got like top five hands in the league.

563
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 4: Though like that that makes a difference maker for Mahomes.

564
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 4: He's got a guy throw it to him. He'll catch anything, right,

565
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 4: that's great.

566
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 1: But to me, the way they're going to utilize that

567
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 1: ten yards down the field, ten yards down the field,

568
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 1: it's third and eight, there're DeAndre Hopkins for fourteen yards. Right,

569
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: It's not like they're gonna have short drives that end

570
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 1: in seven points and they're going to score eight times

571
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 1: in a row.

572
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: So we'll see.

573
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 4: Because again, the Hopkins thing was he had this play

574
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 4: in that game where he was coming back, he saw

575
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 4: Mahomes scrambling and he knew.

576
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 2: To turn it upfield. And that was his second game

577
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 2: on that team, Chad.

578
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 4: That's that's like crazy, crazy good, Like I can't believe

579
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 4: how good Hopkins is still that he saw Mahomes going

580
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 4: out and he left his round and was like, I'm

581
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 4: just gonna go deep because Mahomes will give me a chance,

582
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 4: and he did. He threw it, perfect ball up, perfect catch.

583
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 4: So yeah, that's just that's my view of it. Like,

584
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 4: you're right, I'm thinking long term here. I got to

585
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 4: just think this week and obviously the Broncos is the

586
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 4: play this week.

587
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: Simon, just time. Are you ready? It is time for

588
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: big balls. Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John.

589
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 1: If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.

590
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 1: Great games start with great underwear and Tommy John makes

591
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 1: the greatest guy. We need all the support we can

592
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 1: get to hold our very big balls on this bet.

593
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints plus three and a half at home

594
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 1: against the Atlanta Falcons. Look the line move from three

595
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 1: to four. It touched four. I grabbed it at four yesterday.

596
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 1: I had already bettered at three and a half. It's

597
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 1: not a huge surprise that it got up to four

598
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: and then went back down to three and a half

599
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 1: At three sixty five there are fours out there if

600
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 1: people want to look for them. This is the biggest

601
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: luck side of the week in our luck rankings, which

602
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 1: you know love Derek Carr. He's lost four games this year,

603
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: you know, he missed three games during their seven game

604
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: losing streak. Three of those games they lost to the

605
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: Chiefs by thirteen. Other than that, they've lost by three points,

606
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: two points, one point. Obviously, one of those games was

607
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 1: against the Falcons. Well, this is a team that was

608
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 1: so embarrassed against the Panthers. Their most popular player, Cam

609
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: Jordan apologized, apologized, But we're taking the Saints like it's

610
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 1: one of those games where it it actually makes no

611
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: sense to me not to take the Saints.

612
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 4: But it's a game you hate yourself because you have

613
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 4: to take it. That's how I feel about it.

614
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 1: Whereas I don't even you know what I actually don't.

615
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on this week. I'm loaded

616
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: up on different kinds of steroids for this cough that

617
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 1: I've had for three weeks, and so maybe I'm just

618
00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 1: feeling more energetic than usual, or maybe you know, seeing

619
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: the light. Not once have I been afraid to bet

620
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 1: the Saints team.

621
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, my only fear of it is just if this

622
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 4: turns into a track meet, we're done though, because now

623
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 4: we have Derek Carr throwing to backup receivers, Like I

624
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 4: really hope a lot of A's back we need him.

625
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: For He's He's definitely not planning, no never, So.

626
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is just we're we're trusting the number, trusting

627
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 4: the spot. But yeah, like matchup wise, when I was

628
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 4: diving into a chat, it's not ideal. Honestly, the biggest

629
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 4: takeaway to me is that Elena doesn't get pressure. Derek

630
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 4: Carr is great when he's not getting pressured. You can

631
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 4: run the ball against obviously Stilanta front.

632
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 2: You know.

633
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 4: The fear for me is just that, you know, they

634
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 4: just got rid of their best corner on this New

635
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 4: Orleans team, and now we're getting Drake London, who's been

636
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 4: great this year.

637
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 2: So that's like the movement to me is interesting that

638
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 2: it even got up.

639
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 4: To four because it just shows that there is some

640
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 4: professional money on the Atlanta side, where I thought this

641
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,719
Speaker 4: was going to be a total pros game where it's

642
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 4: gonna be all professional money on the Saints. So like

643
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 4: you just said that people out there, you don't need

644
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 4: a rush to get This is the reason I didn't

645
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 4: make this. Simon says either, it's like you don't need

646
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 4: a rush got to three and a half. I still

647
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:12,479
Speaker 4: think it could go back up to four to four

648
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 4: and a half by game time. But this is what

649
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 4: me and Chad love to do, like this exact team

650
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 4: Like this is like the Lily. The bias of low

651
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 4: on this Saints team. They've lost seven straight games, but

652
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 4: against a Falcons team that has a big leading in

653
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 4: the division, everyone thinks of the best team this division,

654
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 4: where I still think the Bucks even though they lost

655
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 4: them twice, like if they were healthy, this would have

656
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 4: been their division.

657
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 2: Right. The Bucks clearly were the.

658
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 4: Better team this year, but they just haven't had the

659
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 4: luck this Atlanta team has. So I'm happy to sell

660
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 4: on this Atlanta team, especially this number in this matchup

661
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 4: Saints at home, Historically, this is a good spot to

662
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 4: take them. And now the factor in the fact they

663
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 4: fired their coach, who seems like most of the guys

664
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 4: in the team absolutely hated That's just what I've read online,

665
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 4: So usually this is a nice spot for us.

666
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 2: Evan had in his article.

667
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 4: I think it's twenty two seventeen against the spread teams

668
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 4: after firing their head coach. So we'll take that number

669
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 4: at plus three and a half.

670
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 1: You're not wrong about Derek Carr, like he looks like

671
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: a decent quarterback if you look just at the stats.

672
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 1: But as very famous her ferd resident and American treasurer

673
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 1: Mark Twain once said, there are three kinds of lies, lies,

674
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: damned lies, and statistics. Derek Carr gains a lot of yards,

675
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: does not win a lot of games. That makes his

676
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 1: whole career a facade. So we're betting on a guy

677
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 1: we hate to bet on, but it's exactly what we

678
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 1: have to do in our Big Balls bet of the Week.

679
00:32:55,680 --> 00:33:00,640
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680
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:04,840
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681
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 1: you can bet better. That's why we can bet on

682
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints. If you love Simon and I,

683
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: you love this show, you love Tommy John, get twenty

684
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 1: five percent off your first order right now at Tommy

685
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Speaker 1: John dot com slash favorites. Save twenty five percent at

686
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All Right, we talked

687
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 1: about road favorites, San Francisco six point road favorite at

688
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. As I sort of did more and more

689
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 1: work on this game yesterday, I just loved it more

690
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 1: and more love the Niners here. It was at five

691
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: and a half yesterday. I betted at five and a half.

692
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: It's in the app. I still like it at six.

693
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 1: I actually don't know if it'll get back to five

694
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 1: and a half. Like the public had been betting on

695
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: the box. It was one of these weird pros Joe's

696
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: games where the public was betting the box, probably because

697
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: of how they played against the Chiefs and thinking about

698
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 1: the Niner struggles. But the wise guys have been coming

699
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: in on San Francisco Simon. I got a lot of

700
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: reasons I like it, but I want to hear your

701
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: take before I dig into them.

702
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, and actually a few professionals I talked to they

703
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 4: take they've taken the Bucks. If you like the Bucks,

704
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 4: they've taken them first half. They think that's the spout

705
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 4: to take this team because you basically have a four

706
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 4: nights team coming off of buy into this matchup where

707
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 4: you know this might be McCaffrey's first start of the year.

708
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 4: All of it is just if that's where you want

709
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 4: to attack this foreigners team, try to attack the first

710
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 4: half because you just nailed it. Like, this is the

711
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 4: same scenario the Chiefs, Right, it's a team on a

712
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 4: short week. They played into overtime, then they had to

713
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 4: fly back home to play this match up against a

714
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 4: team off.

715
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 2: Of bye week.

716
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 4: So it's like five and a half chat, this is

717
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 4: our five. We get five and a half in contest.

718
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 4: We put it in and McCaffrey is cleared and he's

719
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 4: gonna play, no doubt a not.

720
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 2: I'd take it. If McCaffrey is.

721
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 4: Out again for this game, I wouldn't honestly put this

722
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 4: in our contest and this this wouldn't be one of

723
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 4: my bigger bets. Like that's how important I think he

724
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 4: is to this offense. Because you know, as good as

725
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 4: the other guys have done, we always talk McCaffrey is

726
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 4: such a difference maker. Even the other day I was

727
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 4: watching highlights from them from last season. It was like

728
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 4: every time they needed a big play, he was there.

729
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 4: Anytime they needed a first down carry for five or

730
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 4: six runs to give pretty a short field, he would

731
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 4: do it. So I can't wait to have them back.

732
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 4: It's obviously a game change of this foty nine ers team,

733
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,439
Speaker 4: and he nailed it five and a half. People try

734
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 4: to find that number, grab it. If he does get clear,

735
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 4: this goes up to what six and a half seven

736
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,720
Speaker 4: If McCaffrey's cleared before kickoff.

737
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 1: I don't actually know. Like, to me, every indication is

738
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 1: that he's playing, and so I wonder if that's already

739
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 1: priced into the line a little bit. I mean, it

740
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: did get up to six and a half, it came

741
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 1: back down to six and then five and a half

742
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 1: a little bit yesterday, so there's some buy it back.

743
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 1: But to me, it might get back to six and

744
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 1: a half on Sunday when people who are you know

745
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: you and I live in a world where we're tracking

746
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 1: this from Sunday to Sunday, we forget that there's the

747
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 1: majority of the betting community is not really paying attention

748
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 1: to this until Sunday morning at eleven am Eastern, and

749
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 1: so it could get some heavy aggressive action when they

750
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 1: realize Christian McCaffrey is playing. Like if he is playing

751
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 1: and he's fresh against a run defense that is twenty

752
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 1: ninth in success rate, which, for those who don't know

753
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 1: it basically calculates how much yardage a team gains on

754
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 1: each down, so that they gain twenty percent of the

755
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: yardage they need for a first down on first down

756
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 1: forty percent on second down. Like it scales up. The

757
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 1: bucks D is terrible at success rate. The bucks D

758
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: is terrible at lineyards twenty seventh in line yards, which

759
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 1: means their D line basically gives up a lot of

760
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:48,359
Speaker 1: rushing yards and without getting any contact on the running back.

761
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 1: So I like McCaffrey against this defense. Over the past

762
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 1: two decades, road fades off of a by covered a

763
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 1: sixty percent clip. By the way, that number, that number

764
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 1: is seventy when the spread is five and a half

765
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:02,280
Speaker 1: or higher.

766
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 2: Wow.

767
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: So when you've got a good team coming off a

768
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 1: bye as a favorite, they overperform because they're a good

769
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: team coming off a bye. So good spot for us here.

770
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 1: I feel like this is going to be in the contest.

771
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: I do think we'll get five and a half. I

772
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:17,839
Speaker 1: haven't looked at the numbers yet, but.

773
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, say now you've convinced me.

774
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 4: Now, if we can get the five and a half

775
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 4: and then Sunday McCaffrey is playing, this is a guaranteed

776
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 4: to be one of our five.

777
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, and I think like it hasn't been

778
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: at six and a half enough that it'll be at

779
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 1: six and a half in the contest, so I think

780
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 1: we'll get a good number there. Uh, this is to me,

781
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: this is a this is the inter and out game.

782
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 1: New York Jets plus one at Arizona at bet three

783
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: six five. I will say most places have the Jets

784
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 1: as a one point favorite. We had a long Jet

785
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 1: chat about the Jets on Tuesday. They were dogs at

786
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: like one and a half, so we missed that. But

787
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 1: over the course of twenty four hours yesterday, I just

788
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 1: decided the Jets with the side I get. Everything made

789
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 1: sense to me, even as like a one point favorite.

790
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: I know we hate betting against the line flip, but

791
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 1: we did it. You know we've done it. We did

792
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 1: with the Rams last week. I just think the Cardinals

793
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,760
Speaker 1: are streaky. They've gotten the right teams in the right spots.

794
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 1: The Jets have had pen days. I think they're the

795
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:31,479
Speaker 1: better team.

796
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do.

797
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 4: I told you ive Arizona is slightly better, graded higher

798
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 4: and I do the Jets right now. I'm my model,

799
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 4: but as the human my view of it's kind of

800
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 4: the same thing. Like thrown out all the model and

801
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 4: everything out. Like you just talked about, I feel like

802
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 4: the Jets on paper and just visually are the better team.

803
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 4: They've just been unlucky this season where Arizona has been lucky.

804
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 2: That's why obviously they have so many more wins.

805
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 4: And this is another telling line where I was way

806
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 4: off on it and maybe I haven't adjusted enough to

807
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 4: devant the Adams coming over. Right, that's obviously a big

808
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 4: deal to this team. And we'll see how Rogers does now.

809
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 4: Back to back weeks. You know, he was banged up

810
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:14,959
Speaker 4: coming to that game. He got a little more banged

811
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 4: up on Thursday. I saw you an interview the other day.

812
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 4: He said he's fine, he's feeling great. I mean, that's

813
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 4: just football talks. We really don't know. But yeah, looking

814
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 4: at this matchup on paper, there should be a great

815
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 4: matchup for the Jets.

816
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 2: Offensive.

817
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,479
Speaker 4: The question is defensively a team that struggles against the run.

818
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 4: That seems like that's Arizona's identity this year, right, they

819
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:35,879
Speaker 4: kind of just been running the ball down team's threats.

820
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,399
Speaker 4: I mean Kyler Murray, he might be second or third

821
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 4: in the league right now, and rushing for quarterbacks He's

822
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 4: been great running the ball as well, so there are

823
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 4: obviously his ways for Arizon to attack it. But you

824
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 4: just nailed It's like, isn't this peak Arizona? Haven't they

825
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 4: just been on this insane around these last couple of

826
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 4: weeks where they've won a bunch of close games and

827
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 4: they just blew out that Bears team on the at home.

828
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 4: Now this is the letdown spot, right, Like, isn't this

829
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 4: where they kind of have that where the Jets they

830
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 4: can't afford it. They're probably the most one of the

831
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:04,879
Speaker 4: most desperate teams in football right now. They know every

832
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 4: week is basically a playoff game, so we can ride

833
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 4: it with the pros.

834
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 2: We can bet it.

835
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 4: I honestly have a small bet on this so far.

836
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 4: Like you just said, it was really about being the

837
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 4: plus one. It was like, okay, I'll grab the plus

838
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 4: one now before it does flip. It hasn't even moved

839
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 4: since I bet it yesterday. Like it's still you can

840
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 4: still get the plus one out there if you want it.

841
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 4: But like Chad said, most books now have the Jets

842
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:26,720
Speaker 4: as a favorite.

843
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,479
Speaker 1: All right, well it's on the list. We got six

844
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 1: games on the list right now. PHILLYO Dallas. Dallas is

845
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 1: a seven point dog right now. This was my exec decision.

846
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 1: When it was at seven and a half, I had four.

847
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:44,240
Speaker 1: I was interested in heading into Tuesday Dallas, New Orleans,

848
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 1: Denver and the Jets, And at the time I chose

849
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 1: the Cowboys largely because of the number, and being at

850
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 1: seven and a half was like my own little version

851
00:40:55,760 --> 00:41:00,280
Speaker 1: of Simon says. The Jets were just confusing us Saints.

852
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 1: We're only at three of the Broncos. We still kind

853
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,360
Speaker 1: of hoped it would go up. So I grabbed Dallas

854
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:08,919
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. It's moved to seven. I'm

855
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:12,439
Speaker 1: hopeful Micah Parsons plays. Gotten every indication that he will.

856
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:16,839
Speaker 1: AJ Brown I think is going to play. You had

857
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 1: mentioned AJ Brown. He practiced yesterday, looked fine.

858
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 3: So I.

859
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 1: To me, this is a spot we're playing. The number

860
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 1: got the half point. I don't think this is a

861
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 1: contest play. I don't know that we'll get seven and

862
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: a half in the contest. It's a hook and their

863
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 1: spot is a bigger division job.

864
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked. Hurts has struggled on the road in

865
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 2: his career. He struggled as a big favorite as an

866
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 2: Eagles fan, I don't think we've ever won in.

867
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 4: Dallas with Hurts as a quarterback. I could be wrong,

868
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 4: is that right, Evan? I'm not sure, but I don't

869
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:58,240
Speaker 4: think he's ever won in Dallas. And that's obviously Dallas

870
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 4: have some great teams, and they're not a great team

871
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 4: right now. But there's something to do that in these

872
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 4: divisional games. And you said though the base it's just

873
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:08,839
Speaker 4: playing the number seven and a half is just too

874
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 4: much for this Eagles team that just keeps letting teams

875
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 4: get back in the game, doesn't matter if the team's

876
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 4: good or bad. They find a way to kind of

877
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 4: shoot themselves on the foot and let these teams come

878
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 4: back in. And looking at this matchup, obviously Eagles across

879
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 4: the board are a much better team.

880
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it Hurts is over three in his career.

881
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:30,439
Speaker 4: In Dallas, but at seven and a half, I don't

882
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 4: mind taking the number. I bet this number six and

883
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 4: a half no play for me, would not put in

884
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 4: the contest.

885
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:38,880
Speaker 1: I agree one hundred percent it's going to be. I

886
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 1: don't have this making our final five right now. We'll

887
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 1: see what we get in the contest. If it's seven

888
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 1: and a half, it might make it a harder conversation,

889
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 1: it would.

890
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,399
Speaker 2: Like I'd much rather put the Rams or Detroit over this.

891
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,879
Speaker 1: Uh good, you know what. I'm glad because I don't

892
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 1: want to. I don't want to put it on the

893
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 1: line with the Cowboys. I like the seven and a

894
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 1: half number. I'm glad to have made it an exact

895
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 1: decision and made it it will be.

896
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 2: Our divisional dog in the Saints. We don't need two

897
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 2: of them exactly.

898
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 1: All Right, you just mentioned Detroit three and a half

899
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 1: point favorite over Houston. Yeah, I don't know. I like

900
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 1: this game. Worries me. I know we were talking a

901
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:16,720
Speaker 1: lot about Detroit on Tuesday. From a betting point of view,

902
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 1: it's really got to be at three. I think we

903
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:25,359
Speaker 1: need to show some discipline here. Nicocollins is eligible to

904
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 1: come back. Wow, he didn't practice yesterday, but they did

905
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 1: run him through all these physical tests. They had him

906
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 1: running twenty miles per hour on a treadmill. That's deep

907
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 1: research right there. That's what I'm bringing to the podcast, Okay,

908
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: spending my time trying to figure out our key player

909
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: is going to play, bringing it to our audience. Will

910
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: Anderson did not practice. We both know this was a

911
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: different team against the Jets. As soon as he went out,

912
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 1: they were winning, and then they lost. As I keep

913
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 1: looking at this game, my biggest fear for betting the

914
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:05,400
Speaker 1: Lions in this game is their rush defense stopping Joe Mixon,

915
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 1: who's just he's playing pissed four straight games one hundred

916
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 1: yards in a touchdown ever since he came back from

917
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 1: an injury. If Nico is back and Joe Mixon is

918
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 1: doing what he does against a middling Lions rush defense,

919
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 1: that feels like a recipe for pain if we're betting

920
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 1: the Lions.

921
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, but this also feels like when you talk a

922
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 4: lot of time trying to catch a falling knife. It's like,

923
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 4: we know Detroit's gonna get burned eventually, Like they can't

924
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 4: keep up the space. But we had two straight weeks

925
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 4: of their offense putting up what two hundred and fifty

926
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:44,800
Speaker 4: yards against Tennessee.

927
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 2: They're special teams at for him.

928
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 4: Last week, same thing, they put up like two fifty

929
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 4: seven or two hundred and fifty fifty six, I forget

930
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 4: what it was exactly, but they shirted offensively, their defense

931
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 4: showed up, and defensively, they've been one of the best

932
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:00,759
Speaker 4: teams on third and fourth downs in the like they've

933
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 4: really shut teams down, even after they aiden Hutchison injury.

934
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 4: You know, their defense is being able to attack this

935
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 4: Houston team, like you just said, like they have a

936
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 4: bad offensive line. Yes, their biggest weakness is gonna be

937
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 4: against the run. But if there's no Nico Collins, why

938
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 4: would they not stack the box if they know that's

939
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 4: what they're going to need to do here with Houston.

940
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 4: So Detroit breaks all the rules like golf, We've never

941
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 4: seen anything like this. How he basically every week is

942
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 4: the public favorite, biggest public bet, and he just covers.

943
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 4: And it's not just because of him, it's the whole

944
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 4: team right now, they're just playing at such a high levels.

945
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 4: So your hesitation is warranted. I want to be under

946
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 4: I wanted to be on Houston and coming into this

947
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 4: it's like another week of trying to fade this Detroit team.

948
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 4: But I think last week was just a much better

949
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 4: spot and that is where I wanted to do it.

950
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 2: And this one it's like I told you, I got

951
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:47,879
Speaker 2: this line a little higher. I think there's value three

952
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 2: and a half.

953
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 4: If you're scared off, you don't want to put it,

954
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 4: and I get it. But yeah, I actually still like

955
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 4: Detroit at this number in the spot, and it's really

956
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 4: like you just said, we'll no Will Anderson, no Nico Collins.

957
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 4: This will become one of my bigger bets.

958
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:07,399
Speaker 1: Sunday Football is a physical, violent game, physical travels. Right.

959
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:11,400
Speaker 1: The reason why we've loved the Lions all year is

960
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 1: because we love their offensive line, like it's just something

961
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 1: that it's not. Offensive lines are not streaky. No, the

962
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 1: way quarterbacks are, the way receivers are, the way running

963
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 1: backs can be. Offensive lines are consistent. That's what you're

964
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: betting on. I think that's why we fall in love

965
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: with the Lions and why we back them in certain spots,

966
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 1: even when that was sort of chalky. I think there's

967
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 1: too much running against their defensive line as a run

968
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 1: stopping team to make me super super comfortable. Miami at

969
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Rams, It's time to explain yourself, mitter Hunter.

970
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:53,799
Speaker 2: What do you mean by that? Why do I like

971
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:54,280
Speaker 2: the Rams?

972
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 1: Like this is a This is a pros Joe's game,

973
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:03,240
Speaker 1: and we are decidedly on the public team. The number

974
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 1: has moved aggressively in the direction of the Dolphins. Maybe

975
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 1: one of the biggest moves of the week. You know,

976
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:14,279
Speaker 1: other than Denver in Seattle, Denver and Kansas City which

977
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 1: moved from nine and a half down to seven and

978
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:19,719
Speaker 1: a half, there haven't been games unless there have been

979
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 1: injuries that have had massive moves like this.

980
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 2: So what you're thinking, Yeah, and clearly there's professional but

981
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,359
Speaker 2: a result. I just do not simply believe in this

982
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 2: Rams team.

983
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 4: They bought heavy on them against that Vikings team, a

984
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 4: spot I loved the following week against the Seahawks.

985
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 2: They were not on our side. They were all in

986
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 2: the Seahawks. I mean that number went.

987
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,319
Speaker 4: From two to two and a half all the way

988
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 4: back on a one to one and a half. I

989
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 4: kickoff like money came in very late on that Seahawks

990
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 4: team looked like it was a.

991
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 2: Pretty good read.

992
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 4: Right Stafford did not have a good game, and then

993
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 4: we got to pick six from Gino and then insane

994
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 4: overtime touchdown to get us that cover. So we know

995
00:47:56,239 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 4: fortunately were But I look at this Rams team, it's

996
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 4: just aren't they the better team. I don't really get

997
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:04,319
Speaker 4: the line movement here where it's like I get it

998
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 4: too as desperate, the Rams not gonna be as desperate

999
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 4: as Miami team coming off the divisional game. But Evan

1000
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 4: has a bunch of trends at point two, it's actually

1001
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 4: nice to play this Rams team after that divisional game.

1002
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 4: McVeigh eleven and seven against the spread after playing divisional

1003
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 4: games after a win, and uh, you know this is

1004
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 4: another matchup of this. This Miami's defense is terrible. Like,

1005
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 4: who like Ramsy's gonna shut down Cooper Cupp or Pooka.

1006
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 4: I don't think so, Like, I don't think he's the

1007
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 4: same guy we think of in the past. And we

1008
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:39,280
Speaker 4: know their run defense has struggled as well. So maybe

1009
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 4: the review of it is this is a shootout and

1010
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 4: that's why they took the two and a half, and

1011
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 4: it's like Miami's gonna be able to stay in this game.

1012
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 2: But I still think their offense is off.

1013
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 4: And yeah, two had that great last drive against the Bills,

1014
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 4: but overall in that game, didn't really feel like that

1015
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 4: was the Miami team of old, right. That feels like

1016
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 4: they were lucky to be in that game against the Bills.

1017
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 4: So I have no issues here, but there's clearly a

1018
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 4: blind spudyer or I just maybe love this Rams team

1019
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 4: too much and that the professionals are making a good

1020
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:08,280
Speaker 4: read here on taking the Rams, I mean taking Miami,

1021
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 4: especially at plus two and a half.

1022
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 1: Simon, you and I.

1023
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,399
Speaker 2: We're in the foxhole, you know me, regardless of what's

1024
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 2: going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team,

1025
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 2: I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

1026
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 1: I'm with you on the Rams. I love the Rams.

1027
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:25,479
Speaker 1: I like the Rams not because of Cooper Cup and

1028
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 1: Pookin Naku and Matthew Stafford. I love him because of

1029
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:31,760
Speaker 1: Kyrin Williams. And I love him because Sean McVay runs

1030
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 1: so much motion and at the end of the day,

1031
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 1: he's a coach who just wants to run the ball

1032
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 1: up the middle. And in Kyrien Williams, he's got a

1033
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 1: guy who's gaining four or five six years per carry

1034
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 1: against They mind the Dolphins defense that isn't very good.

1035
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:47,560
Speaker 1: And to your point about the Dolphins offense against the Bills,

1036
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 1: that was a Devin h And drive that won them,

1037
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 1: that got them into that game and tied them in

1038
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 1: that game against the Bill. So I like everything you're

1039
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 1: saying here. I like it even more that we're getting

1040
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: a much lower.

1041
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 2: Number getting grave value now in the Rams of this.

1042
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 1: Great value on the Rams like, I could see the

1043
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 1: Rams making it in here into the contest for sure.

1044
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 1: I could see them getting in there for me over Detroit,

1045
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 1: possibly over the Broncos. If the line is seven and

1046
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 1: a half. We'll see, we'll see. That's exciting. I felt

1047
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:22,399
Speaker 1: good about all of them today, though I really did.

1048
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:26,720
Speaker 1: Each week Simon, we give out a two team money

1049
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 1: line underdog parlay Bet three sixty five boost the odds

1050
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:32,839
Speaker 1: and highlights it on their site all week and long

1051
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 1: under both game pages. And remember, both games will be

1052
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 1: eligible for bet three six five's early payout promo, where

1053
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,799
Speaker 1: your money line pick gets marked as a win if

1054
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:47,360
Speaker 1: your team takes a seventeen point lead, even if they lose.

1055
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 1: I've benefited from this no sweat money line offer. If

1056
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 1: you want to bet this, bet it at bet three

1057
00:50:54,600 --> 00:51:02,720
Speaker 1: sixty five. This week's boosted parlay is Steelers and Colts.

1058
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:06,439
Speaker 1: Find the boost under either the Steelers or Colts game

1059
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:10,279
Speaker 1: pages on bet three sixty five. Let's talk about our

1060
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 1: money line underdog round Robin h there will come up

1061
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:18,120
Speaker 1: pay day, Holla, lou Yo, wanna pay day.

1062
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 2: There will come up.

1063
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:23,840
Speaker 5: Payday someday some day there will come up payday.

1064
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 3: Holla, lou Yo, wanna payday? I will come up payday

1065
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 3: some day.

1066
00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:35,320
Speaker 1: These are my entries. Tell me if you feel differently ready,

1067
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 1: Steelers yep, Saints yep, Colts yeah, Texans mm hmmm, I'm

1068
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 1: gonna disagree. Gimme, gimme, gimme.

1069
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,359
Speaker 2: How do we not go? I mean, I know this

1070
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 2: is we just talked about it, but how do we

1071
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:02,480
Speaker 2: not go?

1072
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:04,880
Speaker 1: Cowboys interesting?

1073
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:06,640
Speaker 4: I want to go with a big one. We've seen

1074
00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 4: some of these big spreads come through. It feels like

1075
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 4: this is the type.

1076
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:12,479
Speaker 2: Of game that no one sees coming.

1077
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 4: And the Eagles pope of upset right now in the

1078
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 4: Action Network ap less than nine percent of the money,

1079
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,000
Speaker 4: and the bets right now in the Cowboys money line.

1080
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 4: So this is definitely no one's gonna be joining us

1081
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:24,359
Speaker 4: here unless they listen to this show.

1082
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:26,320
Speaker 1: Who's your fifth?

1083
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:29,839
Speaker 4: I want to do the Jags. That's clearly gone now

1084
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 4: that Mac Jones is going to be the starter.

1085
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:34,080
Speaker 1: I had it on the list off because of Trevor.

1086
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, for those.

1087
00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 1: Who don't know, Trevor Lawrence is out. It's gonna be

1088
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 1: Mac Jones starting for the Jags against the Vikings.

1089
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 4: I want to do the Panthers, but I talked about

1090
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:48,319
Speaker 4: I don't do international games on the dog, so that

1091
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 4: that's unfortunate because that number is now up to two

1092
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 4: plus two forty on their money line, the Carolina Panthers,

1093
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:56,879
Speaker 4: which is insane that it's got up that high.

1094
00:52:57,360 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 2: I'm taking the cheap way out, chat. I was gonna

1095
00:52:59,080 --> 00:52:59,720
Speaker 2: throw the jetson.

1096
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 4: I mean right now they're minus they're even money basically,

1097
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 4: and that can that technically works for a money line

1098
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:06,279
Speaker 4: around Robin all right, I.

1099
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 1: Can take I was gonna say, we can do the

1100
00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:11,799
Speaker 1: Jets or like we could also do the Dolphins, but.

1101
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 2: No, don't do it to me.

1102
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:15,720
Speaker 4: One the biggest one is if the Cowboys come through.

1103
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 4: That would be you basically just need to go two

1104
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:21,239
Speaker 4: for three on this thing to get money, because that's

1105
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:23,840
Speaker 4: how big of a dog right now the Cowboys.

1106
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 1: Are all right, who are your biggest bets right now?

1107
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, right off the top, Pittsburgh plus three if you

1108
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 4: can still find it, love it.

1109
00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 2: Obviously, the Giants at five and a half.

1110
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:36,360
Speaker 4: It's gone. So now that's not gonna be one of

1111
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 4: my bigger bets. It's up to six and a half.

1112
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,759
Speaker 4: Colts right now. Them in Pittsburgh. I would say my

1113
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:44,920
Speaker 4: two biggest lines on waiting on Detroit. That's gonna be

1114
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 4: my bigger bets, depending on who's healthy for Houston.

1115
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 2: Rams will probably get up there because it is the

1116
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:51,319
Speaker 2: money night game.

1117
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 4: And then obviously we just talked about it, this forty

1118
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 4: nine Ers team at five and a half, six even

1119
00:53:57,840 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 4: McCaffrey gets cleared and he's good to go. Even had

1120
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 4: six and a half, I would still be pritting this

1121
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 4: pretty heavy on Sunday.

1122
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 2: So as long as it's below seven for that forty

1123
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 2: nine Ers game, I really love that matchup this week.

1124
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 1: Biggest bets Colts, Steelers, Rams, waiting on Detroit, waiting on

1125
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 1: San Francisco. When all hope is lost, all that's left

1126
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: is relief.

1127
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 2: Let's play Scoots Roulette.

1128
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,799
Speaker 1: Simon, you're six and three and Scoot Roulette. I am

1129
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:33,720
Speaker 1: not who is your cruelette pick? I have two listed

1130
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 1: in the script. I am hoping you don't choose either

1131
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 1: of those. I will choose the opposite if you do.

1132
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:44,840
Speaker 2: I mean, I want to go Colts or Pittsburgh, but

1133
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 2: I feel like I need to trust my brethren on

1134
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 2: my big miss this week, and I'll go with the

1135
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:53,600
Speaker 2: Jets minus one or plus one whatever.

1136
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 1: Wow, you're getting bullied into a scoot Rulette pick.

1137
00:54:57,040 --> 00:54:58,880
Speaker 4: Well, I want I want to give out something that

1138
00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:01,839
Speaker 4: I already haven't given out. So I'm hoping people maybe

1139
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 4: this pushes them over the edge to take this Jets

1140
00:55:03,600 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 4: number here and trust the professionals.

1141
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:09,239
Speaker 1: My choices were between San Francisco and the Colts, and

1142
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Colts. I mean, I'm I'm going

1143
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:16,359
Speaker 1: with the Niners. I'm going with the Niners. The only

1144
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:19,240
Speaker 1: reason I said Colts is because that's the first team

1145
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 1: name that I saw when I was in the script.

1146
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:24,800
Speaker 1: And I'm going with the Niners. All right, scoot Roulette,

1147
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:27,840
Speaker 1: you're on the Jets. I'm on the Niners. Before we

1148
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 1: get out of here, let's bring in Director of Research

1149
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. Make us feel better about everything we've said.

1150
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:41,280
Speaker 1: Please the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.

1151
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,080
Speaker 5: You guys going back and forth on which picture, liking

1152
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:45,840
Speaker 5: which picture throwing away? This is just going to be

1153
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 5: so much fun. But on the tip of the tongue

1154
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 5: right now is Mac Jones. So I did look up

1155
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 5: a few things as I was kind of doing things

1156
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 5: on my own here. Mac Jones three and fifteen against

1157
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 5: the spread as an underdog, and his last eighteen starts.

1158
00:55:57,800 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 5: Now that line is up to about six and a

1159
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 5: half right now now, and I was trying to get

1160
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:03,799
Speaker 5: a good comp from Mac Jones. So since twenty twenty two,

1161
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:07,840
Speaker 5: he has the EPA per play of Josh Dobbs, he

1162
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 5: has the completion percentage over expected of Bryce Young, and

1163
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:14,800
Speaker 5: he has the success rate of HAYLEB Williams. I'm sorry,

1164
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:17,319
Speaker 5: but that is actually what it is, and I apologize

1165
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:17,520
Speaker 5: for that.

1166
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 3: Okay, let's go into the funeral.

1167
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 1: That was a low blow.

1168
00:56:21,080 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 5: I honestly, when I saw it on the screen, I

1169
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:25,479
Speaker 5: was like, oh, well, this is exactly what has to happen.

1170
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:28,719
Speaker 5: But I apologize Tomlin as a dog. We understand that,

1171
00:56:28,719 --> 00:56:30,920
Speaker 5: we've heard that millions of times. I took another layer

1172
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:32,720
Speaker 5: into it, which I thought was kind of interesting.

1173
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:34,839
Speaker 2: Lets the greatest of all time, look at you work.

1174
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 5: So how does he do against stopping elite offenses? He

1175
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:40,720
Speaker 5: is twenty one fifteen and one against the spread, fifty

1176
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 5: eight percent versus opponents, averaging twenty eight plus points per game.

1177
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:46,360
Speaker 5: When he's a dog in that spot, he's fourteen and

1178
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:49,839
Speaker 5: seven against the number and because I was curious, even

1179
00:56:49,880 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 5: without Big Ben, that's still four to two and one

1180
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:53,839
Speaker 5: against the spread, because I know a lot of those

1181
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,320
Speaker 5: numbers are juiced because of it. So kind of interesting.

1182
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 5: You guys have been flip flopping back and forth a

1183
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:01,359
Speaker 5: little bit with that Eagle Dallas line, a little scared

1184
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:04,320
Speaker 5: of what's going on if you do land on Dallas.

1185
00:57:04,600 --> 00:57:06,799
Speaker 5: This is probably the reason why you'll get the cover.

1186
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,719
Speaker 5: So last two seasons, when Philly is a favorite and

1187
00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:12,080
Speaker 5: leads by ten plus points at any point in the game,

1188
00:57:12,360 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 5: they are still just five six and two against the spread.

1189
00:57:16,120 --> 00:57:19,360
Speaker 3: They are the only team in the NFL below five

1190
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 3: hundred ats in that spot after leading by ten plus

1191
00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:25,800
Speaker 3: points as a favorite, So something usually happens. They make

1192
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 3: a dumb mistake, Dallas gets back in the game, see

1193
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 3: what happens, and I'll leave you with one more. This

1194
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:33,600
Speaker 3: is simply just a numbers play at four because I

1195
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 3: knew you guys were interested in Indy. Trying to figure

1196
00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:39,160
Speaker 3: out a reason why Indy might cover this game isn't

1197
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:41,280
Speaker 3: exactly easy when they don't do a lot of the

1198
00:57:41,320 --> 00:57:43,960
Speaker 3: things right that Buffalo does. But let's just put it

1199
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 3: this way. INDI's played eleven straight games decided by one score.

1200
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 3: INDI's played sixteen straight home games where the line is

1201
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 3: under four either way, so three or less either side,

1202
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:58,920
Speaker 3: sixteen straight. They've played six in a row at home

1203
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:03,400
Speaker 3: one score of sixteen one score, so at four it's

1204
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:06,240
Speaker 3: a very, very valuable number. I don't think there's anyone's

1205
00:58:06,240 --> 00:58:08,320
Speaker 3: going to tell you differently, and I know Chad's going

1206
00:58:08,360 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 3: to be like, this doesn't matter, but I did find

1207
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 3: it interesting. Historically, Indy isn't the easiest place to play

1208
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:18,720
Speaker 3: for good teams sixty six plus plus win percentage going

1209
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 3: into Indy culture thirty fifteen and one against the spread

1210
00:58:22,040 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 3: last twenty years and three and oh against the spread

1211
00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:28,840
Speaker 3: last three seasons, so kind of working both ways. Difficult

1212
00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 3: place to play, that's a situation for us.

1213
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:34,320
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I'm gonna take it because it's confirmation biased,

1214
00:58:34,680 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 1: but really historical context for teams.

1215
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 3: Who cares correct correct. But I liked it, and I

1216
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 3: added it, and I knew I get that feedback, and

1217
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:45,280
Speaker 3: I love it.

1218
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:50,280
Speaker 1: Everything about that Eagles stat just says, wow, is Nick

1219
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:54,840
Speaker 1: Sirianni a terrible, terrible in game coach? That is that

1220
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 1: is that that's honestly what we're betting on. We hate

1221
00:58:57,360 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy. We don't think he's very good either, and

1222
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 1: he doesn't have any players right now. But we're really

1223
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 1: betting against Nick Siriani being able to make the right

1224
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 1: decisions as the game goes on if they have a

1225
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:11,880
Speaker 1: big lead. As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented

1226
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:14,160
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1235
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1238
00:59:54,000 --> 00:59:55,920
Speaker 1: and I will return with our next episode of The

1239
00:59:55,960 --> 00:59:58,320
Speaker 1: Favorites on the Action Network. You two page Sunday night,

1240
00:59:59,080 --> 01:00:04,320
Speaker 1: seven thirty Eastern to recap NFL Week ten. Download us

1241
01:00:04,320 --> 01:00:08,560
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1242
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:10,720
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1243
01:00:10,720 --> 01:00:20,360
Speaker 1: a gift. Until next time, Love you. Action Network reminds

1244
01:00:20,440 --> 01:00:24,280
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1245
01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:27,440
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