WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend: Shutdown, SBF, UK Politics 0:00:02.640 --> 0:00:05.240 This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 0:00:05.240 --> 0:00:07.680 the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:10.360 anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.920 a jobs report or maybe not, we get a preview 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:16.479 of what to expect. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:19.040 I'm Caroline Hepe. You here in London, where we're looking 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:22.000 ahead to the UK's party political conferences. 0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:24.560 I'm Kaylie Lyons, getting ready to make the trip from 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:27.160 Washington to New York for the start of the trial 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:28.440 of Sam Bankman Freed. 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:31.160 I'm Doug Prisner, the first woman to lead the Reserve 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:34.320 Bank of Australia, will guide a decision on interest rates 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:34.880 this week. 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:41.479 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, the business 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:43.839 news you need to wrap up your week in just 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:48.560 one fifteen minute podcast available on Apple, Spotify, The Bloomberg 0:00:48.600 --> 0:01:00.000 Business Appen everywhere you get your podcasts. 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.200 Who I'm Tom Busby. We begin today's program with a 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:04.880 look at the September jobs report coming out this Friday 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.160 or is it. With the government shut down, a lot 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:11.200 of data critical to Wall Street investors will not be 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:14.040 released until a bill, even a short term stopgap bill 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:17.520 to fund the federal government is passed. To talk about 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:19.959 what we can expect with Washington and to stand still, 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:24.280 we welcome Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent Michael McKee. Michael, 0:01:24.319 --> 0:01:24.680 thank you. 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:26.839 Happy to be here. At least I'm here. 0:01:27.120 --> 0:01:31.119 Yeah, yeah, that's right. Someone's working well, Michael, we've all 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:34.720 been here before. Twenty government shutdown since nineteen seventy seven, 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:37.120 the latest one thirty five days long. That was in 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:44.280 late twenty eighteen. It's horrible, but let's talk. Let's start 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:49.360 with what is not affected. Social Security and the Postal Service. 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:56.480 Right right, well, and Medicare goes forward. The programs that 0:01:56.600 --> 0:02:01.720 our entitlements are funded separately from all of this. There 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:06.520 is no mechanism to reauthorize them, so they will go out. 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:12.200 The problem is if enough people at the Social Security 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:13.720 Administration come in to lick. 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:14.520 The stamps, I guess. 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:19.880 But the Postal Service is also self funded. The Federal 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:23.120 Reserve will be open because they are self funded, so 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:27.280 not everything is closed, and most parts of the government 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:30.720 that the public would interact with will be closed, although 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:36.320 there are exceptions for workers in what they call public 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:41.400 safety facing or jobs like air traffic controllers. 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:42.200 People like that. 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:45.079 Well, that's I think that's a good thing. But there 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:48.600 are nearly three million workers who will be out of 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:50.040 work or told to stay. 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:53.280 Home essentially, whether it's just over two point nine million 0:02:53.280 --> 0:02:58.560 federal workers and about the guess is eight hundred thousand 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:00.720 or so will be told to stay home. Others will 0:03:00.720 --> 0:03:03.960 come to work but will not get paid. Now that 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:07.880 includes one point three members of the active duty military 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:10.160 who are going to be putting their lives on the 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.440 line for you for free for the time being. Now, 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:17.680 everybody gets paid according to law that was actually adopted 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:22.440 after that last government shutdown. It was customary before. Now 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:25.200 it's a law that back pay is made up, so 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:27.400 they will get paid eventually. But it does create a 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:29.359 hardship for all those people because they have to tell 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:31.720 the credit card company, I don't have the money this month. 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:33.320 I'll have it maybe next month. 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:35.680 Yeah, call me next month. I mean, that's a lot 0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:38.200 of spending power as we enter the fourth quarter of 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:40.760 people who and these people need that money. 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:44.680 Yeah, that's a problem for the economy if it goes 0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:49.800 that long. I'm not the political correspondent in Washington these days, 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:52.520 but there does seem to be a feeling that this 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:55.200 one could be longer than the ones in the past, 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:57.720 and if that's the case, then you have an issue 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:00.720 for the economy. Now, what we find in the past 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.680 is that most of that is made up right away 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:05.240 because people get their back. 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:08.320 Pay and they go out and spend the things. 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:10.960 The people who get hurt are the people who might say, 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:13.360 run a restaurant or something like that because you don't 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:14.800 have money, you're not going to go out to dinner. 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:18.360 Well you can't redo that dinner because the day is passed. 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:21.400 So there will be hardships around the country. 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:25.040 And one of the things that people don't realize is 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:27.320 that the federal government has spread all over These two 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:31.159 point nine million people are in every fifty states, every 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:33.239 one of the fifty states. They're all across the country, 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:35.520 so you'll feel it in your own state. 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:38.920 Well, there's also you know, like you say, the restaurant 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:43.440 right outside Elgin Air Force Base, you know, the store 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:45.360 right outside where everybody gets you know. 0:04:46.920 --> 0:04:49.160 One of the big problems, of course we laugh about it, 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:51.600 is that they always close the national parks because that 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:54.400 provides a sign that says closed that the TV people 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:57.599 can take a picture of and represent the shutdown. But 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:00.440 there are a lot of tourist businesses outside of national 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:01.440 parks that. 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:04.760 Will be in trouble. And in California they're talking. 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:08.680 About using some of the money that they get from 0:05:08.760 --> 0:05:11.919 a state lottery to keep some of those places open 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:16.039 because they will be in trouble if this goes on 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:16.680 for a long time. 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:19.360 Yeah, it's a real hardship for a lot of business owners, 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:21.480 not congress members, though they still get paid. 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:26.640 Congress members get paid, and the President gets paid because 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:30.719 there are constitutional provisions that would keep them from. 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:33.200 Not getting paid. 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:36.240 But everybody else at the White House and all the 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:40.240 staffers on Capitol Hill are not getting paid. The interesting 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:44.000 thing about the law time too, is that people can't volunteer. 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:46.840 You're not allowed to volunteer to work for free. If 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:48.920 they send you home, your home. 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:51.920 Your home, that's it, and you'll wait until it's over. 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:56.200 Until it's over. Let's talk about how this could impact 0:05:56.520 --> 0:06:00.279 Wall Street investors and the economy. And let's talk about 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:01.599 we'll start with Wall Street. 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:04.479 The SEC. You know there's going to be well, the SEC. 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:07.960 Most of their work will shut down. You'll still be 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:10.560 able to if you have to file, You'll still be 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:14.320 able to upload files to Edgar and so that work 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:16.400 will go on, but there won't be anybody in the 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:19.400 office at the SEC, and so a lot of their 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:23.000 enforcement stuff will go by the boards for. 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:23.840 The time being. 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:27.720 If you want to get a passport, you're not going 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:30.039 to be able to do that while it's shut down 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:34.200 or anything like that. Government records will not. 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:37.080 Be accessible if you need to get. 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:40.760 Your military retirement or a new Medicaid care card or 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:44.160 something like that. So a lot of things that are 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:48.680 sort of day to day mundane things won't be happening, 0:06:48.960 --> 0:06:52.159 and that'll start to build up some frustration. But history 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:55.799 shows Wall Street tends to overlook all of this, and 0:06:56.440 --> 0:06:59.800 the last two, which were the longest ones that we've 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:05.359 had shutdowns, the market's finished up from the time that 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:08.480 they shut down to the time that they reopened. So 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:11.560 it's kind of the figure this is a temporary thing 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:15.000 that won't last. If it lasts longer, then maybe you 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:19.520 do have an effect because investors start thinking that consumers 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:21.760 aren't going to be able to spend as much money, 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:23.440 and corporate profits go down. 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:27.920 Big concern. Also, I mean there's some critical data coming out. 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:30.000 I mean it's always coming out from the government, But 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:32.880 next week, you know, including the biggie, the jobs report, 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:36.400 and after a very dismal I would say September for 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:39.240 the markets, I mean investors accounting on some of this 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:41.120 coming out, but we may not see. 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:41.640 We may not see it. 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:47.400 All of the September data after today is in, and 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:51.800 they could release it on time if they got a 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:54.960 quick deal, or they could release it with only a 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:59.240 few days delay if they don't, but still get settled 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:02.240 in the coming way. But if it goes longer than that, 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:04.360 then we won't get the jobs report for a while. 0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:07.880 You've got the CPI coming up on October twelfth, the 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:13.360 PCE inflation data on October twenty seventh. Those numbers could 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:16.440 in theory not come out, and then the FED is 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:21.119 going to be left flying blind at their November first meeting. 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:25.360 And as one observer said, quite accurately, how are you 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:29.520 supposed to have a soft landing if the pilots are blind? 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:31.760 And so for the Fed it'd be difficult. 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:37.559 Probably means that they don't they don't move on November 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:39.800 first because they might feel they don't have enough data. 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:42.920 All the private sector data comes out, the isms, the ADPs, 0:08:43.000 --> 0:08:46.360 things like that, but the government data will not come out, 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:49.120 and that could be a problem. And then longer term, 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:54.520 if everybody's off work, then nobody's collecting data. The way 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:59.200 the jobs numbers work, most of that data would come in. 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:03.320 But inflation data is what a price is on a 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:07.600 particular date, and if they don't have that, then if 0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:09.600 they don't collected that date, it would be hard to 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:12.520 backfill it. So we could end up seeing a month 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:16.440 without without inflation data, which only makes the fed's job 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:17.000 even harder. 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:19.679 That's not good, and we've actually gotten some encouraging data 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:20.480 about inflation. 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:24.480 And yeah, last week. Last week the PCE numbers came 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:29.200 in very low. The core PC was up only tenth 0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:32.040 of a percent, and on an annualized basis, that would 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:35.480 be inflation of about one percent for the year. So 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:40.120 we've had a dramatic drop in the Fed's favorite inflation indicator. 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:44.640 And if that continues, then that may mean the Fed 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:47.000 is done and may mean the higher for longer longer 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:47.920 becomes a little shorter. 0:09:48.320 --> 0:09:50.200 But the problems we may not know. 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:53.400 No, and also, jobless claims have been you know, to 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:55.840 four to five for a couple of weeks, and we 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:56.880 haven't seen that in a while. 0:09:57.040 --> 0:10:00.640 Well, that's probably going to change because if you're on strike, 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.840 you can't file for job as claims. But if some 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:06.160 workers at your plant are on strike and that means 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:09.520 your plant shuts down so you're just furloughed, then you can. 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:13.760 And so we will probably see distortions start to come 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:16.280 in that as the UAW strike expands. 0:10:17.040 --> 0:10:19.080 Well, we got a lot to look forward to and 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:22.280 a lot to be worried about. Michael, thank you so much. 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:24.520 In coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we look 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:28.679 ahead to the UK's political party conferences. I'm Tom Busby 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:41.360 and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:43.800 our global look ahead of the top stories for investors 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:46.200 in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:49.400 Up later in our program the rise and fall of 0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:52.160 FTX and a preview of the trial of its founder 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.920 and former CEO, Sam Bankman Freed. But first, the UK 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:58.960 has had a turbulent time with four prime ministers in 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:03.679 four years and significant economic challenges. Now a general election 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:06.560 emerging into view in the next sixteen months, so the 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:10.480 annual party political conference season is getting extra attention. Let's 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:14.520 bring in Bloomberg Radio anchor Caroline Hepger and Anna Edwards 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:16.880 in London, with more tom. 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:20.239 Party leaders, activists, press and all sorts of politicos dispersed 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:23.160 to various cities across the UK in October for these 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.439 annual party conferences. In the next few days, the Conservatives 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:29.680 gather in Manchester, and Bloomberg Radio will be there to 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:32.520 cover it all, including the set piece speeches from the 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:35.480 Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.400 Well ahead of that, we've been speaking to Bloomberg Opinion 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:42.559 columnist Adrian Wooldridge about why this year may be different, 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:46.120 what Wooldridge describes as a feeling of profound change in 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:49.600 the air in Britain, and we began by asking him firstly, 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:52.320 what party conference season is really like. 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:54.720 Well, it used to be something that was really serious, 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.760 particularly on the Labour side, that policy was actually made 0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:01.720 at the party conferences. Now they don't make policy, policies 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:05.600 made in secret enclaves, but they do so some quite 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:10.040 important things. One is that they create a certain momentum. 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:12.320 You know, if you have a good party conference, that's 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:15.160 good for you. Another is that they create enthusiasm amongst 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:17.160 the party base, the people who actually knock on the 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:21.240 doors do all the work. You know, the party conference 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:24.280 is fun, you know, you get that, you have hi 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:28.160 japes and you come away enthused. And it's also a 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:31.880 sort of talent show. The Prime Minister or the leader 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:35.840 of the opposition has to prove themselves with their speech 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.240 that matters, and also all the other people who are 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:43.160 maneuvering for a preferment also have to show their wares. 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:45.320 Okay, so a bit of a showcase then, very much. 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:47.760 When I've been at these conferences and I've been in 0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:51.000 the sort of large rooms, the larger auditory of where 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:54.439 they're doing these big set piece speeches, it's really interesting 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:56.400 because they're talking to the converted, so you'd expect there 0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.760 to be lots of applause and appreciation, but sometimes there isn't. 0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:02.640 And I wonder this year with some divisions within the 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.440 Conservative Party, what it is that Suna can Hunt really 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:07.880 have to get across in their speech is to try 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:08.960 and win the rooms over. 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:11.960 I think what Hunt has to get over is the 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:15.600 idea that things are on the mend. That's the process 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:20.640 of mopping up the mess that was left by predecessor 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:23.680 has gone on and they have a vision for the 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:27.640 future that it's not just an endless process of cleaning 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:31.600 up and cutting people's living standards. What reci has to do. 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.200 What Sunak has to do is to introduce himself to 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:38.480 the party. This is his first party speech and people 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.000 don't have a very clear idea of who he is. 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.240 They know a few cliches about him, but they don't 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:46.720 have a sense of him as a person. And he 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.200 needs to introduce himself to the party but also to 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:52.240 the country, both as a person but also somebod who 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:53.800 has a vision of where we need to go in 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:56.040 the future, not just five things to be ticked off, 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:57.480 but a natural vision of the country. 0:13:57.600 --> 0:13:59.640 Yeah, of course there's five pleasures from the start of 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:01.840 this year about what is going to do with the economy. Okay, 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:04.480 So look, he's not just the Conservatives. The lib Dems 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:06.480 have already had their party conference in Born, with the 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:10.360 SMP also a significant force in UK politics overall. And 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:14.840 then there's Kiss Darma, the Labor Party, very hotly tipped 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:16.840 in the polls at least for now. What is he 0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:18.640 going to be focused on at conference. 0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:21.000 We have a sense of who he is because he's 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:23.600 been around for some time. We know his sort of 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:26.640 conventional Stade fairly boring, but a decent sort of guy. 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:31.480 And he's more avoiding mistakes than doing anything else. So 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:37.120 he has to create confidence that he's capable of delivering change, 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.840 that he won't give in to the to the left 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.400 of the party, that he's a safe pair of hands, 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:46.720 and that he knows how to translate his general vision 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:50.760 of things into a set of policies that might work. 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:54.520 His great mistake or his great weakness, I think he's 0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:56.760 talked for too long. I mean the last conference speech 0:14:56.800 --> 0:15:00.440 that I ever that I saw of his life life speech, 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:02.280 it was a good speech, as a well written speech, 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:04.680 but just went on and on and on and on. 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:06.120 You're just waiting for it to end and then you 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:06.760 start again. 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:08.680 Well, that's a danger for the whole. 0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:12.760 It is, and I think soon next speeches is being 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:14.520 trailed as being a very long speech. I think that's 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:16.920 a mistake. You know, this is not North Korea. You 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.280 know we're supposed to We're supposed to have some sort 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:24.320 of democratic right to a short attention span. 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:29.640 But I'm sure that's somewhere an unwritten constitution. Absolutely, let 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:31.680 me ask you about comparisons with Blair. As we're talking 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:33.840 about labor. We did a big piece just this week 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:38.240 on the Big Take Peace. On comparisons with Blair, there 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:40.560 are some, but then there's also a very different fiscal 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:42.080 situation that he'll be inheriting. 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:44.200 I mean, how far do those comparisons get. 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.320 Not very far, really, partly because they're very different people. 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:51.000 I mean they're both lawyers and they're both middle of 0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:54.000 the road. Tony Blair is more to the right, but 0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:57.960 both sensible politicians. But they're really quite different people. Blair 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:01.440 was a showman, you know. He you know, he played 0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:04.560 in a rock band at Oxford. He liked as an actor, 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:06.920 he liked to perform. Kir Starmer isn't like that. He 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:09.680 is somebody who you know, is more of a sort 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:13.200 of backroom man in some ways. He doesn't like the 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:15.120 stage naturally. 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:16.240 A lot for a back room man. He's picked a 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:17.120 lot of front room. 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:22.760 Jobs he has, indeed, But I don't think it's you know, 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:25.360 he wants power, but I think, and you know, to 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:27.400 get power you have to do this sort of thing. 0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:30.280 But I think that actually appearing before large groups of 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:33.440 people is not natural metire in the way that it 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:37.040 obviously is with Blair. I think the other big difference 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:41.440 is that the circumstances in nineteen ninety seven were right 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.920 for Blair. They're right for a progressive realignment, both in 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:48.720 terms of you know, you had a young president of 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:50.800 the United States with a new set of ideas. You 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:53.080 had the talk of the Third Way, You had a 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:57.240 lot of economic room for an sort of expansionist policy. 0:16:57.360 --> 0:16:59.640 All of those things don't exist. We have Joe Biden, 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:03.120 who's not exactly young in the United States, and we 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:07.920 have a real shortage of money, not very much room 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:11.399 to do things. So they keep talking, you know, about 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.359 progressive moment or spending forty billion a year on a 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.280 green revolution and things like that, or you know, getting 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.280 rid of not getting rid of but shoving taxes on 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:24.280 public schools. And then they come backreat, they retreat, they 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:29.560 keep retreating, and basically, it's not time for a progressive realignment. 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:31.960 It's time for a set of pragmatic policies to deal 0:17:32.000 --> 0:17:35.359 with with with with particular problems. 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:39.240 Well, no doubt, we'll hear this phrase working people many 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:43.360 many times, hard working people indeed, and who doesn't want 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:46.879 to be that? But I've heard it. We hear a 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:50.720 lot from the Labor Party. But actually increasingly. I've heard 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:52.919 that phrase now from the Prime Minister themselves. So this 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.480 seems to be taking on what are working people and 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.080 voters in the UK do you think, you know, in 0:17:58.119 --> 0:17:59.879 as far as we can take of reading, what do 0:17:59.920 --> 0:18:01.960 you think they're thinking about now? Will they pay any 0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:03.680 attention to party conference? 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:07.919 Well, one of Tony Blair's great statements was that people 0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.960 spend about thirty seconds a year thinking about politics. People 0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:13.920 don't think about politics as much as politicians think that 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:16.760 they do. And also we're getting a general turn off 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:20.160 from politics at the moment. I just saw the host 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:22.920 of the Today program, you know, complaining that people were 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:26.640 just turning off politics because it's too too awful. So 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.520 I think that people are basically worried about their living 0:18:29.560 --> 0:18:31.920 standards and they want somebody to address those living stats 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:34.400 that they're want inflation to be brought under control. They 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:38.080 want the price of food to be more reasonable than 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:40.440 it might seem at the moment, and I think more broadly, 0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:44.760 they want a sense of order in society. And they 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:46.679 says if you look at politics, this is chaotic. You know, 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:49.639 things are falling apart. We go through prime ministers like 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:53.320 some people go through wives it's. 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:55.520 Well four and four years, yeah, exactly. 0:18:56.680 --> 0:18:59.919 It's an incredibly unstable environment, so I think people do 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:03.160 wants stability in a sense of practical policy, right. 0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:05.040 And one thing we'll be watching for, I suppose as 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:08.119 the conferences get underway is some of the wedge issues 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:11.280 that will likely feature in the campaigns towards the next election. 0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:14.840 We've heard a bit about net zero from the Conservatives 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.440 and a different take, shall we say on net zero 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:20.359 around certainly on EV's is this going to be an 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:24.760 effective wedge issue? Do you think for dividing the population? 0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:26.720 Adrian? Is that is this going to be the one 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:27.919 that works for the Tories? 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.159 Yes, but I don't think it will work in the 0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:33.000 sense that they'll win the next election. That seems very 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:33.600 unlikely to me. 0:19:33.720 --> 0:19:35.880 Thanks to Bloomberg's Adrian Wooldridge, I'm Anna. 0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:37.960 Edwards and I'm Kroin Hepker here in London and you 0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:41.000 can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak. You're 0:19:41.040 --> 0:19:43.320 at beginning at six am in London. That's one am 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:44.040 on Wall Street. 0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:47.280 Tom, Thanks Caroline and Anna, and coming up on Bloomberg 0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:50.600 Daybreak weekend. Sam Bankman Freed is import this week we'll 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:53.720 get you the latest. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. 0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:06.320 I'm Tom Busby in New York with your global look 0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:08.720 ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. 0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:11.720 Sam Bankmin Freed is accused of orchestrating one of the 0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:15.919 biggest white collar crime cases in US history this week. 0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:19.280 The trial starts on Tuesday. For what we can expect, 0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:21.479 let's head to our Bloomberg ninety nine to one newsroom 0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:25.520 in Washington and Bloomberg Sound On. Co host Kaylee lines. 0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:28.800 Yeah, Tom, that's right. Next week, I won't be spending 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:30.840 the whole week here in Washington because there is a 0:20:30.840 --> 0:20:34.760 big event going on in New York City. Sam Bankman Freed, 0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:39.600 the once billionaire founder of FTX, the now fallen crypto exchange, 0:20:40.119 --> 0:20:44.080 is going to be on trial. It starts this coming Tuesday. 0:20:44.440 --> 0:20:46.960 Ava Benny Morrison, who's one of our great legal reporters 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:50.000 here at Bloomberg, is joining me to talk about this 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:53.360 case and what it could mean for Bankman Freed. But first, 0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:56.320 I feel like I need to remind everyone about how 0:20:56.359 --> 0:21:00.320 we got here. Remember, Bankman Freed founded FTX in May 0:21:00.320 --> 0:21:03.560 of twenty nineteen. By October of twenty twenty one, the 0:21:03.600 --> 0:21:07.840 company raised capital out of valuation of twenty five billion dollars, 0:21:08.160 --> 0:21:09.919 and at the end of that year it said it 0:21:09.960 --> 0:21:12.640 had more than five million users globally, about one point 0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:15.480