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Speaker 2: Game Time? Immediate reaction, Holy shit, what a night of sports?
Speaker 2: May have been the best Thursday night football game I've
Speaker 2: ever seen. Thirty six thirty Kirk Cousins. Oh my god,
Speaker 2: five hundred plus yards for Kirk Cousins. Was it four
Speaker 2: touchdown passes? Baker had what three touchdown passes? It's just
Speaker 2: a flurry. I lost count. Jeez, what a night. I
Speaker 2: mean this, I'm doing this on the fly here, I'm
Speaker 2: just looking thirty six thirty, Yeah, Baker nineteen and twenty four,
Speaker 2: three touchdowns. Listen to these numbers for Kirk Cousins forty
Speaker 2: two of fifty eight, four touchdowns, five hundred and nine yards, Colin.
Speaker 2: I can't believe that Lena paid Kirk Cousins and drafted
Speaker 2: Michael Pennix.
Speaker 3: It should be fired.
Speaker 2: Yeah, having two quarterbacks, it's terrible thing in the NFL,
Speaker 2: Just terrible. So first of all that that game was crazy.
Speaker 2: October has arrived and SOA's offense. I mean, this just
Speaker 2: shows you how close this league is. So Atlanta. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, they get Darnell Mooney drops that ball six
Speaker 2: minutes left, and you're thinking they just blew it wide
Speaker 2: open Darnell Mooney. But Rahe Morris, like good coaches, kept
Speaker 2: his timeouts. They were able to stop tamp on that drive.
Speaker 2: Time out, time out, time out, get it back, ball
Speaker 2: punted in the end zone, get it back. And this
Speaker 2: is what Captain Kirk does. He's a professional quarterback in
Speaker 2: this and this shows you. We talked about this on
Speaker 2: FS one today. The middle class quarterbacks. You know, your
Speaker 2: uppercross is five or six guys, and then you get
Speaker 2: into look at all these middle class quarterbacks. Andy Dalton,
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold, Gino Smith, Baker Mayfield. Kirk Cousins is on
Speaker 2: the higher end of that, but you don't pay him
Speaker 2: a fortune. They make good money. Kirk makes good money.
Speaker 2: But look at all the quarterbacks that don't make the
Speaker 2: biggest money. Kirk Cousins a lot of weapons, Baker Godwin,
Speaker 2: Mike Evans, Gino Darnold. You notice that if you're gonna
Speaker 2: have a B to a B plus quarterback and you
Speaker 2: don't pay him Dak money, look at the weapons. Dak's
Speaker 2: a B plus quarterback a minus, you pay him big money.
Speaker 2: They got one receiver, okay, and they can't. They probably
Speaker 2: gonna afford Devonte Adams, but they have the worst running
Speaker 2: back room in the league and the worst run defense.
Speaker 2: So if you're gonna pay a quarterback the Mahomes money,
Speaker 2: Josh Allen Lamar. I'm for it, but that's why Kansas
Speaker 2: City never has a fully formed wide receiver group. But
Speaker 2: that game tonight's just a I mean, I got notes here.
Speaker 2: I've been watching it for hours and I'm sitting here
Speaker 2: and forget my notes. It was just a great wild
Speaker 2: NFC South football game and you were watching two really
Speaker 2: good quarterbacks. You know, it's funny about Baker Mayfield. We
Speaker 2: talked about this today on the show. If you give
Speaker 2: Baker a pocket and Atlanta doesn't have much of a
Speaker 2: pass rush, I think al Michaels said to Night or
Speaker 2: Kirk Krbstreet said tonight that they just all season long,
Speaker 2: they have generated like no pass rush in the first half,
Speaker 2: and I forget what the stat was, But you give
Speaker 2: Baker time to throw and let him step into it.
Speaker 2: Dude's got a big arm. Same with Gino Smith, big arm.
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins doesn't have that arm, but his ability to
Speaker 2: melt the clock. He is a classic professional quarterback. He
Speaker 2: is a just a pro. That final drive is just
Speaker 2: so smart, you know what I mean? And give Atlanta
Speaker 2: backs and receivers Kyle Pitts credit out of bounds, Get
Speaker 2: out of bounds that's a team, you know. Raheem Morris
Speaker 2: got that job in Tampa, wasn't quite ready for it.
Speaker 2: Goes eventually to Sean McVay. They become tight friends. Watches McVeigh.
Speaker 2: He becomes a very offensive, friendly defensive coach like Demiko
Speaker 2: Ryans with Kyle Shanahan a very offensive, friendly defensive coach
Speaker 2: Demiko Brans. Raheem Morris watched those teams situationally with their offense.
Speaker 2: You know, I thought just the way Atlanta preserved their
Speaker 2: timeouts tonight in the game, they could have easily lost.
Speaker 2: You don't waste timeouts. They had them late. You know,
Speaker 2: it was funny when they gave the ball to Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 2: I forget, was like a minute twenty six left, and
Speaker 2: I'm thinking, you know, he's not Brady, but I'm thinking
Speaker 2: this is Kirk. They'll be fine. They'll get into field
Speaker 2: goal range, you know. I mean, you got and something
Speaker 2: has happened in the NFL. I can't explain it. It's
Speaker 2: happened overnight. Fifty yard field goals are suddenly no big deal,
Speaker 2: no idea. I have no idea what's happened, But I mean,
Speaker 2: this thing tonight, it's just like fifty three yard field
Speaker 2: goals are made with ease. So God, the NFL's crazy.
Speaker 2: It's just nuts. Tonight's game was nuts. And the other
Speaker 2: thing where you have to give the Falcons major credit,
Speaker 2: and this is Kirk Cousins, because Atlanta's got a pretty
Speaker 2: young team. I mean there's a lot of younger players, backs,
Speaker 2: wide receivers. Drake London's a younger player. Kirk's captain, Kirks
Speaker 2: the veteran. Did you notice? And this is coaching and
Speaker 2: it's Kirk Cousins. How little time the Falcons had and
Speaker 2: how quickly they got to the line of scrimmage to
Speaker 2: get the ball down it one second left, Okay, that's execution.
Speaker 2: Atlanta had so many opportunities to lose this game. They
Speaker 2: preserved their timeouts. The two minute drill was magical. They
Speaker 2: rushed to the line to stop the clock. That is
Speaker 2: a well coached team. How about that Kirk Cousins Raheem
Speaker 2: Morris meeting in the end. I mean they just looked
Speaker 2: at each other like I need you. This is why
Speaker 2: we got you. I love it. All these all these
Speaker 2: quarterbacks Dalton Gino Baker, Cousins, Sam Darnold, they don't get
Speaker 2: all the high in love classic Thursday night football game,
Speaker 2: and I also Blazing five tomorrow. It's a crafty week.
Speaker 2: You're gonna hear from Chad Millman in about five minutes.
Speaker 2: I also have to talk about this baseball series. So,
Speaker 2: you know, the New York Mets. I don't think they
Speaker 2: have the talent of the Padres overall, or the Dodgers,
Speaker 2: or probably the Yankees. But the fact that Pete Alonso,
Speaker 2: you know, he's a classic slugger, he goes into extended slumps.
Speaker 2: Home run Derby guy hits the biggest home run of
Speaker 2: his career tonight in the ninth for the Mets as
Speaker 2: they go on to beat the Brewers. But this is
Speaker 2: what's crazy about it. So the New York Mets has
Speaker 2: been a franchise since nineteen sixty two. I went and
Speaker 2: looked it up and that was like the Casey Stengle
Speaker 2: Polo Grounds nineteen sixty two. The Philadelphia Phillies were formed
Speaker 2: in the late eighteen hundreds, So the first baseball team ever,
Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Red Stockings, was like eighteen sixty nine. Phillies
Speaker 2: were in the National League like fifteen years later. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think they were playing in a street corner. I mean,
Speaker 2: who knows. I don't know it was it Connie Max
Speaker 2: Stadium or something like that. I don't know. Some baseball
Speaker 2: historian will know it. So just think about that. The
Speaker 2: Phillies have been around since the eighteen hundreds. The Mets
Speaker 2: have been around since nineteen sixty two. I'm reading it
Speaker 2: on a piece of paper right now. The Phillies have
Speaker 2: been to eight World Series. These two teams, Mets Phillies'
Speaker 2: rivals have never met in the playoffs. What they have
Speaker 2: never met in the playoffs before tonight? Have you ever
Speaker 2: wanted to win a beer at a bar with trivia?
Speaker 2: They've never met in the playoffs. I think the Phillies
Speaker 2: is a better team. But you know, the Mets have
Speaker 2: been red hot since mid June. A lot have come
Speaker 2: from behind victories, and there is a magic to it,
Speaker 2: you know, these teams. I mean, there's a reason you've
Speaker 2: heard comeback kids, cardiac kids. You see it in football
Speaker 2: and baseball at the time. They're just these teams that
Speaker 2: get on rolls. They're very comfortable playing from behind. They
Speaker 2: often have power in the lineup. So I mean, listen,
Speaker 2: outside of the NFL, almost all sports are somewhat dependent
Speaker 2: on who gets into the finals. You know, you're Wimbledon's
Speaker 2: going to be rated higher if it has its biggest
Speaker 2: stars in it. You know, the US Open in golf, obviously,
Speaker 2: Tiger in some of the big hitters, now Brooks Kepka
Speaker 2: can drive a number. Nobody questions that. Or it's the
Speaker 2: Masters or the US Open at Pebble Beach or Pinehurst.
Speaker 2: Obviously there are you know, Ohio State meet to Texas
Speaker 2: in a national championship. That's going to get a twenty
Speaker 2: Buckeys and Longhorns have two of the biggest, most rabid
Speaker 2: fan bases. You know, Michigan last year planned for Natty
Speaker 2: got a huge rating. It matters situationally, anfl kind of
Speaker 2: bulletproof beyond brand. So, I mean, Green Bay is one
Speaker 2: of your more popular franchises. So is Pittsburgh, and they're
Speaker 2: considered smaller markets. But in baseball, Mets Phillies, that's who
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball Center over to London to play. That
Speaker 2: was an o marquee, big power hitters, marquee big major markets.
Speaker 2: And Padres Dodgers, which is a really used to be
Speaker 2: Dodger San Francisco, but the Podres Dodgers over the last
Speaker 2: four or five years become a great, great series. You know,
Speaker 2: Dodgers big brother, Padres little brother. But the Podres now
Speaker 2: they pay like I mean, they have a salary cap
Speaker 2: that feels more Boston than it does historically San Diego.
Speaker 2: So that's going to be a great series. The National League,
Speaker 2: I mean, Major League Baseball could not have picked four
Speaker 2: better teams to get in. Northeast rivals, West Coast rivals.
Speaker 2: You know, population centers so good for baseball. I mean
Speaker 2: I came home tonight, I thought, yeah, I'll watch an
Speaker 2: NFC South game, a little baseball game and Pete Alonzo's homer.
Speaker 2: I have never heard of stadium get quieter faster than
Speaker 2: in Milwaukee. Great fans, by the way, great fans.
Speaker 1: Team.
Speaker 2: I mean, they got a lot of young players. Okay,
Speaker 2: I gotta go to bed. I gotta go to bed.
Speaker 2: If I had Champagne, I'd pop an open just to
Speaker 2: celebrate the night of sports. We'll see it tomorrow. Let's
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Speaker 2: your life. This is a paid advertisement. Time for another
Speaker 2: edition of Sharper Square. Chad Milman, CEO of the Action Network.
Speaker 2: All odds provided by DraftKings. It was last year I
Speaker 2: got off to a dubious start O nine to one,
Speaker 2: weeks three four OK, caught fire in week five, had
Speaker 2: a five and oh several four and ones similarly this year,
Speaker 2: I'm done messing around.
Speaker 1: Okay, you know what I do think and I feel
Speaker 1: said this before. I think is betters whether we are
Speaker 1: novices or professionals. It's taking two to three weeks to
Speaker 1: figure out who these teams are, whereas if we had
Speaker 1: more preseason games, we might have more of an assessment
Speaker 1: and so we can make better decisions faster. I also
Speaker 1: have a really cool stat for you that I think
Speaker 1: is making it a little bit harder to make accurate
Speaker 1: prediction protectively.
Speaker 2: Let me hear, Let me hear that, Let me hear that.
Speaker 1: So this year, this year, the average spread in games.
Speaker 2: Crazy, there's no big spreads.
Speaker 1: Four point two points per game is the spread I
Speaker 1: think this weekend, let me see if I can find
Speaker 1: this like there have been I think there's two games
Speaker 1: where the spread is seven or more. This is one
Speaker 1: of the most parody examples that we've had in the
Speaker 1: spread yep, in history, like going back to the nineteen sixties,
Speaker 1: So there are huge challenges. What it means is every
Speaker 1: half point matters that much more. Right. Think about the
Speaker 1: Cowboys game this past week against the Giants on two
Speaker 1: Thursdays ago.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, the spread.
Speaker 1: Opened at five and a half. Then it went down
Speaker 1: to five. Then it went down to four and a half,
Speaker 1: then it went down to four, then it went up
Speaker 1: to four and a half. They went up to five,
Speaker 1: five and a half, someplaces six. The game landed on five.
Speaker 1: And while that happens all the time, it's happening more often.
Speaker 1: It means those half points means so much more as
Speaker 1: a percentage of value.
Speaker 2: Well, and also when I do my blazing five, I
Speaker 2: often get the worst of the number. It's not an excuse,
Speaker 2: it's a reality. I'm betting Thursday and Friday. It is
Speaker 2: what it is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so.
Speaker 2: You know, I'll give you a game, a prime example
Speaker 2: that I think part of me thing you take the game.
Speaker 2: But this is my dilemma. So Cleveland getting three and
Speaker 2: a half against Washington, they get Nick Chubb back. But
Speaker 2: I wonder if two things, Deshaun Watson is washed. Secondly,
Speaker 2: though they haven't faced great competition, Washington's domination of Arizona
Speaker 2: makes me think, do we have the next Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: in Washington. There's a certain harmony with Cliff Kingsbury and
Speaker 2: Jade Daniels. It's not like they're completing seventy percent of
Speaker 2: the throws, it's like eighty two. So my gut, my
Speaker 2: history says, Cleveland plus three and a half against a
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback feels like a really smart side. Sharper square.
Speaker 1: It's there's gonna be games, Colin, and we've talked about this.
Speaker 1: We'll do the sharp Calls segment on the favorites where
Speaker 1: the wise guys, professional betters will weigh in with their
Speaker 1: feedback on the games that we talk about. We talk
Speaker 1: about them on Tuesday. On Thursday, we go over sharp calls.
Speaker 1: Four or five games this week. Washington is one of them.
Speaker 1: Massive split. The right side is to play Cleveland at
Speaker 1: three and a half, You're one hundred percent right. It's
Speaker 1: not because of the rookie quarterback. Jaden Daniels has already
Speaker 1: proven he's preternaturally gifted. Like what he has done in
Speaker 1: the first four weeks of the season is indicative of
Speaker 1: what you will do over the course of a season. Right,
Speaker 1: and his accuracy stats, as you mentioned, they are not
Speaker 1: just good for a rookie, they are good historically in
Speaker 1: the history of quarterbacking. This is a bi low cell
Speaker 1: high situation. Right, you want to get off the commanders
Speaker 1: right now, because they had that big win against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Then they went and blew out Arizona in a game
Speaker 1: a lot of professional bettles. We're betting in Arizona. Meanwhile, Cleveland,
Speaker 1: they're fading. The line flipped last week when Max Crofty
Speaker 1: was out and DeVante Adams was out for the Raiders
Speaker 1: and the brown went from being underdogs to being favorites
Speaker 1: and then they still lost. Here's the challenge, and it's
Speaker 1: why the game is so split, and it's why a
Speaker 1: lot of wise guys are taking the half point, but
Speaker 1: a lot of people they're just passing. This offensive line
Speaker 1: for Cleveland is in shambles, and now Ethan Pozick, who
Speaker 1: was the center who went out last week, there are
Speaker 1: questions about his ability to play this week. And they
Speaker 1: are already lacking other offensive linemen that has been killing
Speaker 1: their running game, which has always been good. Forget about
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb, Is David and Joku gonna play. If Djoku plays,
Speaker 1: that makes Deshaun Watson a little bit better. But generally
Speaker 1: this team is struggling at every single position on the
Speaker 1: field defensively as well, like they have not been playing
Speaker 1: well defensively. Miles Garrett has already said he's got injuries
Speaker 1: to his feet that are going to require surgery. To listen,
Speaker 1: I want to bet the Browns so bad in this game.
Speaker 1: I do, I really do, Like I can't pull the
Speaker 1: trigger yet. I might, I might, the wise guys still
Speaker 1: might come in. It's not one of my favorite plays.
Speaker 2: So I believe two things are true simultaneously. That quarterbacking
Speaker 2: matters more now than ten years ago, and coaching does.
Speaker 2: I think there's a gap in coaching in this league,
Speaker 2: and you're seeing it on a regular basis. I think
Speaker 2: Minnesota has the best coaching staff in the league, Brian
Speaker 2: Flores arguably the best defensive coordinator, where top quarterback C. J.
Speaker 2: Stroud Brock pretty acknowledge. I don't know what I saw.
Speaker 2: Minnesota doesn't even have to give off a field goal. Oh,
Speaker 2: by the way, massive pressure on a team I think
Speaker 2: is one of the most poorly coached between Nat Hackett
Speaker 2: and Robert Sala. If it's three, I stay away. If
Speaker 2: I only have to swallow two and a half Darnold
Speaker 2: and Aaron Rodgers, it's a lot closer right now than
Speaker 2: you think. I would swallow the two and a half
Speaker 2: in London and take minutes soda sharper square.
Speaker 1: So historically you're on the right side. I think their
Speaker 1: record for favorites in London just straight up thirty four
Speaker 1: to ten and one, Yes, thirty and fifteen against the spread.
Speaker 1: So that is the right side. The wise guys have
Speaker 1: a they can't quit Annie Rodgers. They can't quit the
Speaker 1: Jets right now, so they have been coming in on
Speaker 1: the Jets. But I agree with you. The right side
Speaker 1: is the Vikings. It's not a sharp side by any measure,
Speaker 1: but it is the side where you probably are going
Speaker 1: to have a better opportunity because of what's happened historically.
Speaker 2: Okay, something that I believed for a long time, a
Speaker 2: little zigzag theory. When a really good team is humiliated
Speaker 2: in a standalone game, take them the following week. Yes,
Speaker 2: Buffalo minus one at Houston without Joe Mixon, C J.
Speaker 2: Strout all you. All quarterbacks need run games, young quarterbacks especially,
Speaker 2: it's not quite the same without Joe Mixon. A healthy
Speaker 2: Joe Mixon, Buffalo is an excellent team, much more depth,
Speaker 2: more layered offensively than years before. The linebackers are healthier,
Speaker 2: completely utterly humiliated. I would swallow the point and take
Speaker 2: Buffalo Sharper square.
Speaker 1: Square, totally square. This is a massive public game where
Speaker 1: the fans are coming in and they love the Bills
Speaker 1: and normally and there are stats to back this up,
Speaker 1: which I'm sure we will get to. You get blown out.
Speaker 1: You want to be the team that is being bet
Speaker 1: on in the next game. Here's what's challenging for this game.
Speaker 1: Number One, the line has flipped. It's gone from Buffalo
Speaker 1: being the underdog Buffalo being the favorite. That is a
Speaker 1: side where you want to be on the underdog. That
Speaker 1: is a historical trend where when the line flips, you
Speaker 1: bet the underdog number one, number two on the field.
Speaker 1: The challenge with the Bills is that the middle of
Speaker 1: their defense, from their linebackers to their safeties is just trash. Right.
Speaker 1: Matt Milano has been out since before the season started.
Speaker 1: His backup out tomorrow. Hamlin is not a top notch
Speaker 1: safety in the way they have had top notch safeties
Speaker 1: in the past. Nico Collins is a game wrecker right now.
Speaker 1: So CJ. Shroud improves his third down efficiency just a
Speaker 1: little bit and will probably have that opportunity to take
Speaker 1: advantage of the middle of the field against that Bill's defense.
Speaker 1: Then all of a sudden, you're playing yourself out of
Speaker 1: a game. So the wise guys are on the Texans
Speaker 1: and they're hoping to keep getting plus one and a
Speaker 1: half so they can get a little bit of a cushion.
Speaker 1: But again, what's interesting that half point means everything in
Speaker 1: these games where the spreads are between one and four, right,
Speaker 1: So that's a massive, massive edge.
Speaker 2: So Green Bay and I said, I didn't bet the
Speaker 2: Packers Vikings because my guest was there were two possible
Speaker 2: outcomes and I actually saw both in the Vikings Packers game. Yeah,
Speaker 2: Brian Flores first half against Jordan Love, Jordan looked like
Speaker 2: he hadn't played a lot. Second half gets his feet
Speaker 2: under him. Green Bay pivots at half, and then you
Speaker 2: see the real Packers team that can play with anybody.
Speaker 2: So I think the second half Packers is the team
Speaker 2: I'm getting. There's still a major problem with the Rams.
Speaker 2: With no Pokah and Cooper Cup, they can't get touchdowns
Speaker 2: in the red zone. They have no playmaker, Tyler Higbee
Speaker 2: out Pooka out, Cooper Cup out, Blake Korum not playing much,
Speaker 2: missing their best offensive lineman on the interior. So the
Speaker 2: Rams even when they outplay you, they're just settling for
Speaker 2: field goals. I think the second half Green Bay team
Speaker 2: minus three, I don't think it's a strong play, but
Speaker 2: I take the Packers. There is no home field advantage.
Speaker 2: It'll be sixty five thirty five. Packer fan Sharper Square.
Speaker 1: Ailed the biggest Pros Joe's game on the board with
Speaker 1: the Pros playing the Los Angeles Rams. So on Tuesday,
Speaker 1: me and my co host Simon Hunter, you're always trying
Speaker 1: to put us against each other. We like to bring
Speaker 1: we like to bring love to the Volume podcast network.
Speaker 1: But you're trying to, you know, create animosity.
Speaker 2: I like conflict.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you like conflict. Listen, That's why you're a content genius.
Speaker 1: You know, conflict creates really great ratings. I came in
Speaker 1: and I'm like, Simon, the Packers are the side here.
Speaker 1: We saw the second half they were in that game
Speaker 1: against the Vikings. Brian Flores has been making CJ. Stroud
Speaker 1: and Brock Purty see Ghosts and Jordan love. When it
Speaker 1: was coming down to it was right there, like that
Speaker 1: was a scary, scary game. If you were a Vikings Packer,
Speaker 1: you got to take the Packers here against a team
Speaker 1: in the Rams that can't put anyone in the field.
Speaker 1: It has comment to me it was don't get cocky,
Speaker 1: and sure enough, as the week went on, this was
Speaker 1: the game that all the wise guys were coming in on.
Speaker 1: You saw the line move from three and a half
Speaker 1: down to three. Even with all the tickets coming in
Speaker 1: on the Packers, it stayed exactly where it is. It's
Speaker 1: pretty astonishing how much the wise guys like the Rams. Here,
Speaker 1: I'm going to be on the Rams. I'm hoping that
Speaker 1: I can wait until Sunday and get three and a
Speaker 1: half again when everybody is coming in and the public
Speaker 1: comes in on the Packers. One stat I can give you,
Speaker 1: and similar to why wise guys are thinking about the Browns,
Speaker 1: is when you're playing a team covering the spread by
Speaker 1: more than five points per game. So then, in this
Speaker 1: case the Packers, they only cover about forty five percent
Speaker 1: of the time when facing a team with a win
Speaker 1: percentage of less than sixty. So I know it's a
Speaker 1: lot of numbers, but basically, when bad teams play good teams,
Speaker 1: bad teams cover.
Speaker 2: Giant Seahawks. Rarely have I ever been more impressed with
Speaker 2: a losing team on Monday Night Football. So Seattle in
Speaker 2: Detroit standalone game, missing their top four defensive linemen, you
Speaker 2: knew they couldn't stop Detroit. Seattle has two things going
Speaker 2: for it. Their skill players Walker dk Metcalf tight ends
Speaker 2: Gino's playing. I mean, he's completing seventy seven percent of
Speaker 2: his throws, and I think Mike McDonald's excellent. They're getting
Speaker 2: a couple of their defensive linemen back New York. If
Speaker 2: Malik Neighbors doesn't play in this environment, I don't know
Speaker 2: how the Giants moved the ball. McDonald is really clever,
Speaker 2: and he's been really good against averaged to below average quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: I came out of that Seahawks game and I'm like,
Speaker 2: I would not want to play them. I think if
Speaker 2: those two teams met again and Seattle was reasonably healthy,
Speaker 2: I wonder if I'd take Seattle. I'm gonna swallow the six.
Speaker 2: I know I'm a dullered, but sharper square.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're a duller because you're on the right side
Speaker 1: at a bad number. And what is the theme of
Speaker 1: today's show, Get the best of the number? Right? This
Speaker 1: game opened at five, I think maybe five and a half.
Speaker 1: That lasted for maybe seventeen and a half seconds before
Speaker 1: the wise guys took the five and a half took
Speaker 1: the six. By the time most of America got up
Speaker 1: on Monday morning, it was at six and a half,
Speaker 1: where it's been sitting except for today, where it's starting
Speaker 1: to creep up to seven. You are seeing some sevens
Speaker 1: out there. Don't do it. There's a lot of games
Speaker 1: like you're just setting yourself up for disaster because there's
Speaker 1: so much variance in these games, and teams that have
Speaker 1: been seven point favorites or more this year are crushing it.
Speaker 1: So you're hoping there's some aggression, but this is like
Speaker 1: they're eight and five straight up this year, So you're
Speaker 1: really playing with fire to bet the worst of the
Speaker 1: number on a big underdog.
Speaker 2: Divisional rival game, a desperate team Cincinnati plus two and
Speaker 2: a half facing a Baltimore team that played perfect football.
Speaker 2: Division rival underdog great quarterback Joe Burrow Ravens played a
Speaker 2: perfect football game. The numbers tell me, history tells me.
Speaker 2: You take the dog in Cincinnati in a desperate spot.
Speaker 2: Sharper square book it.
Speaker 1: Finally you got one. It's totally sharp. This game was
Speaker 1: that two and a half. The public bettered up to three.
Speaker 1: It's been back back down to two and a half.
Speaker 1: I wish you could say that, you know, if you're
Speaker 1: going to put this in blazing five, you're saying you're
Speaker 1: going to get it at plus three. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: you'll get there. But look, it's not a by low
Speaker 1: sell high situation, but it is a sell high on
Speaker 1: the Ravens. And take advantage of the public sentiment that
Speaker 1: people don't think the Bengals are very good because they
Speaker 1: just won their first game and it was against the Panthers,
Speaker 1: and even that the Panthers had a chance to be
Speaker 1: in the game. The Bengals defense is just not very
Speaker 1: good right now. But Joe Burrow is playing MVP quality football.
Speaker 1: You look at what he's doing throwing touchdowns, he's not
Speaker 1: turning the ball over like he's having a great year.
Speaker 1: This team is getting better. Like you said, they're desperate.
Speaker 1: They're at home these games in the division for the
Speaker 1: AFC North against teams that are of hype equal quality,
Speaker 1: they are always really close. Home Division dogs fifty four
Speaker 1: percent against the spread since twenty twenty. In the last decade,
Speaker 1: Home Division dogs in September October sixty percent against the spread.
Speaker 1: The reason why that matters is because that's when every
Speaker 1: team is competitive. Right. So sometimes you get to the
Speaker 1: end of the year, you've got these division games, teams
Speaker 1: might be out of it. There might be playoff contention
Speaker 1: where they're no longer which is no longer a possibility.
Speaker 1: So it's a very good representation when teams in the
Speaker 1: division play about the intensity of those games.
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Speaker 2: Okay, I like Pittsburgh minus two and a half of
Speaker 2: the Cowboys TJ Watt against the rookie left tackle. It's
Speaker 2: a standalone game justin fields under Arthur Smith is not
Speaker 2: as turnover prone. And I mean this is a classic
Speaker 2: example to me of what the Steelers can do offensively
Speaker 2: is run the ball, and the Cowboys defensive run defense
Speaker 2: is thirty second in the league. I don't have to
Speaker 2: love the Pittsburgh Steelers offensively, but there are things they're
Speaker 2: excellent at doing. I'm not sure what Dallas does well
Speaker 2: at this point, I would swallow the two and a
Speaker 2: half in Pittsburgh Sharper square.
Speaker 1: Totally sharp wise, guys love this game. It's sort of
Speaker 1: a reverse raw ra on Mike Tomlin spot. Normally you
Speaker 1: don't like back in Mike Tomlin as a favorite, right,
Speaker 1: and we saw that last week. I was all over
Speaker 1: the cults last week when this Steelers were on the
Speaker 1: road playing in Indie. But he's coming off a loss.
Speaker 1: So even though he's a favorite, it's a good rob
Speaker 1: Ross spot for the coach who has been enormal successful
Speaker 1: motivating his team. But they all, let's look at the field.
Speaker 1: Dallas was already thin and bad defensively. Now they are
Speaker 1: thinner and worse. No Micah Parsons, no DeMarcus Lawrence on offense.
Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks is out in the backfield. They really have
Speaker 1: no running game to speak up. From a matchup point
Speaker 1: of view, it lines up perfectly for the Steelers in
Speaker 1: every way they have an edge. You want to be
Speaker 1: able to run the ball, you want to get the
Speaker 1: ball out of Justin Field's hands, or you want to
Speaker 1: peep the ball in his hands for RPOs. Arthur Smith,
Speaker 1: Steelers offensive coordinator, has been amazing this year a game
Speaker 1: planning to put Justin Fields in a position to succeed.
Speaker 1: The only time that hasn't worked is when they were
Speaker 1: losing and all of a sudden he had to start
Speaker 1: making plays throwing the ball down field, and that's when
Speaker 1: he's fumbling. He's making bad decisions. They will likely have
Speaker 1: a lead in this game. They will likely be able
Speaker 1: to nurse a lead in this game, and then it's
Speaker 1: going to be up to Dak Prescott to throw the
Speaker 1: Cowboys back into the game, and he's going to be
Speaker 1: going against TJ. Watt, and that's when the Steelers really
Speaker 1: cycle up the opportunity to win. So yeah, we're all
Speaker 1: over the Steelers in this game.
Speaker 2: Saints plus five and a half at Kansas City with
Speaker 2: no Rashi Rice, So it's not a great offensive line
Speaker 2: but Checko still not back, not as formatable a run game.
Speaker 2: You lost your number one receiver. Xavier Worthy could become
Speaker 2: a volume receiver, He's certainly not that now. I think
Speaker 2: the Saints can hang around. Chiefs will win, But five
Speaker 2: and a half seems really really rich.
Speaker 1: Sharper Square totally sharp. The Saints of the right side here,
Speaker 1: and don't be sort of dissuaded by the outings they've
Speaker 1: had the past couple of weeks. They were incredibly unlucky.
Speaker 1: We've talked about the luck rankings on this show, which
Speaker 1: is basically a formula our math geniuses have devised to
Speaker 1: separate the signal from the noise and identify regression either
Speaker 1: positively or negatively. Right. So last week, the last two weeks,
Speaker 1: the Saints have been incredibly unlucky. The Chiefs have still
Speaker 1: been lucky, right, and they will acknowledge that they are
Speaker 1: playing at a higher level than their talent because Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes is so much better than everybody else. This is
Speaker 1: the biggest difference in luck we have in our luck
Speaker 1: rankings this week, twenty eight spots separating them. That number
Speaker 1: if a difference in the luck rankings of twenty eight
Speaker 1: or more sixty five percent against the spread. If the
Speaker 1: team that's unlucky is on the road seventy eight percent
Speaker 1: against the spread, I'll throw even more at you, Colin.
Speaker 1: Think about Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of more than
Speaker 1: a field goal under five hundred against the spread. You
Speaker 1: want to talk about Derek Carr. Derek Carr gets a
Speaker 1: lot of hate from everybody, deservedly so, but as an
Speaker 1: underdog the past twenty years, if he is playing a
Speaker 1: team that scores less than twenty one points in a game,
Speaker 1: he has a top five against the spread record with
Speaker 1: guys like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees. How many
Speaker 1: points a game are the Kansas City Chiefs averaging eighteen
Speaker 1: something like that? So the stars are aligning for New
Speaker 1: Orleans to cover against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 2: I don't know what the over under should be for
Speaker 2: Denver in Las Vegas, but in a game that could
Speaker 2: end up seventeen fourteen, I'm going to take the points
Speaker 2: with the Raiders two and a half against bone Knicks.
Speaker 2: I like bon Knicks. There's limitations. I just don't see
Speaker 2: the points here. I think Denver's defense has actually paid
Speaker 2: really well, and I think it will hold brock Bowers
Speaker 2: DeVante Adams. I don't think that trade happens till after
Speaker 2: this weekend. I have to take the points here with
Speaker 2: the Raiders in a division rivalry game. Sharper Square.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's why you do take the points is because
Speaker 1: it's the division rivalry game. Because why would you take
Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback as a favorite when he just came
Speaker 1: off a game where he literally had the most putrid
Speaker 1: offensive stats that have happened since the nineteen sixties. You know,
Speaker 1: minus seven yards passing at one point. But the challenge
Speaker 1: here and the wise guys are totally split, so you're
Speaker 1: not going to get like a definitive Sharper Square. Personally,
Speaker 1: I have bet the Raiders at plus two and a half.
Speaker 1: But I know a lot of guys who are taking
Speaker 1: the Broncos here. Their defense isn't just good, their defense
Speaker 1: is elite, like they're playing at a top five level.
Speaker 1: And you're going against a Raiders team where Max Crosby
Speaker 1: we still don't know what kind of health he will
Speaker 1: be in for the game. They have offensive line issues
Speaker 1: as well. Obviously Devonte Adams will not be playing in
Speaker 1: that game. I don't know that that matters to me.
Speaker 1: That's not a reason to bet or not bet. But
Speaker 1: I do think Gardner Mischew under pressure about sixty two
Speaker 1: percent QBR and he's not under pressure. He's in the nineties.
Speaker 1: So something the Broncos do really well is pressure the
Speaker 1: quarterback top five, So that's going to be a challenge.
Speaker 1: I think I'm still gonna be on the Raiders because
Speaker 1: ultimately I like the trend of betting the division the
Speaker 1: dogs in the division. But it's a tricky one. It's
Speaker 1: not like a definitive Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Okay. I always ask you for a game that I
Speaker 2: did not bet, but I kind of have a weird
Speaker 2: feeling about it. So it's Panthers plus three and a
Speaker 2: half at the Bears. So Caleb's gotten better every week,
Speaker 2: And I ask you about a game that I feel
Speaker 2: like the number tells me bet Carolina. Not that they'll
Speaker 2: be regression, but Andy Dalton is moving the ball. You know,
Speaker 2: these middle class quarterbacks, forget politicians. They have saved the
Speaker 2: middle class in America. Darnald Baker, Gino Dalton. I mean, really,
Speaker 2: these middle guys who are good at their craft, you
Speaker 2: don't pay a ton. They all have good weapons, I
Speaker 2: take Carolina here right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on Carolina now. This is another one to
Speaker 1: bring it full circle. Sunday night. Sunday night, we'll do
Speaker 1: a show the Favorites Podcast at seven thirty. We will
Speaker 1: do it as soon as the late afternoon East Coast
Speaker 1: games end will be off the air before the Sunday
Speaker 1: night football game. The point of the show is to
Speaker 1: preview the early lines that we already like where we
Speaker 1: want to get an edge. This line Sunday Night, seven thirty,
Speaker 1: Carolina plus five. I bet it right away. It went
Speaker 1: down to four and a half, It went down to four,
Speaker 1: it went down to three and a half. Wise guys
Speaker 1: took it at three and a half. I still think
Speaker 1: you're getting half a point of value on Carolina at
Speaker 1: three and a half. I don't think the Bears in
Speaker 1: a position to be four point favorites over anybody, even
Speaker 1: though Kayla Williams is three and one against the and
Speaker 1: has done this in an unprecedented way for rookie quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: This is really coming down to Carolina being an incredibly
Speaker 1: good run blocking team. Pro Football Focus does these great
Speaker 1: ratings and rankings of every player, but also every unit
Speaker 1: in every kind of style. Carolina is run blocking this
Speaker 1: year is top two in the league. The Bear's run
Speaker 1: defense is mediocre. And I do think with Andy Dalton,
Speaker 1: who is going to have a harder time throwing against
Speaker 1: the Bears coverage which is really excellent, and throwing against
Speaker 1: their pass rush, which has also been excellent, they are
Speaker 1: going to try to change the pace of this game,
Speaker 1: make it a slower game, which will be probably lower scoring,
Speaker 1: be a little bit closer. So I still like anything
Speaker 1: with Carolina over a field goal.
Speaker 2: Do you look as we move into October at weather
Speaker 2: in Chicago, because if it's choppy and windy, it helps
Speaker 2: Carolina totally.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, Andy Dalton, this is what's interesting about
Speaker 1: the Panthers, and every professional better loved the Panthers coming
Speaker 1: into this season. They felt like they had made huge
Speaker 1: improvements on their offensive line primarily, that is why. And
Speaker 1: they thought Dave knelis coming in. He had done wonders
Speaker 1: with Gino in Seattle, he had done wonders with Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield in Tampa. We thought that he would do well
Speaker 1: with Bryce Young. It's amazing to me two weeks in,
Speaker 1: whether it was David Tepper, the owner, or Canalis himself
Speaker 1: pulling the cord on Bryce Young, saying our team is
Speaker 1: too good, We've got opportunities to win. Let's go with
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton. That's when a quarterback like Andy Dalton start
Speaker 1: to help you, as in circumstances like that.
Speaker 2: All right, what's the game I missed that you like?
Speaker 2: It's usually an egregiously bad watch on television.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I can't believe I'm going to say
Speaker 1: this to you. You actually hit most of the games.
Speaker 1: You missed one. I'm looking down at my notes here.
Speaker 2: Miami New England, No.
Speaker 1: Come on, come on. I did explain to my son
Speaker 1: the other day. We were watching a bunch of games,
Speaker 1: and I forget which game it was. I'm like, this
Speaker 1: is the corner TV game and I sort of indoctrinated him.
Speaker 1: Like nobody gets it anymore because they got red Zone
Speaker 1: and you can, you know, do four boxes of games
Speaker 1: or you put up multiple screens in your house. But
Speaker 1: like they don't remember that back in the day in
Speaker 1: the sports book, there's a game on in the corner
Speaker 1: that nobody wants to watch, but they have to put
Speaker 1: it up because somebody bet it. I don't have a
Speaker 1: corner that in Miami New England game is the corner
Speaker 1: TV game. I am gonna see if I can entice
Speaker 1: you on a little bit of Arizona at plus seven
Speaker 1: and a half against Samprusco forty.
Speaker 2: Well McBride, the tight end is healthy. It's a division game.
Speaker 2: They've actually had a few moments where they've given the
Speaker 2: Niners trouble. I get that. That's again like Burrow, I
Speaker 2: don't get a good team. I get a good quarterback
Speaker 2: with weapons and points. It's hard not to take it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and plus teams to lose by twenty eight like
Speaker 1: the Cardinals the previous week twenty eight or more, and
Speaker 1: then our dogs are four or more the following week
Speaker 1: sixty two percent against the spread the past twenty years,
Speaker 1: not just that. If a team that lost by seventeen
Speaker 1: is playing a team that won by seventeen or more
Speaker 1: the previous week, sixty percent against the spread the past
Speaker 1: twenty years. These division dogs fifty six percent since twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: like NFL dogs. This year we've talked about the dogs
Speaker 1: and fade, you know, all that kind of stuff. NFL
Speaker 1: Dogs is six six plus points nine and eighth straight
Speaker 1: up fourteen and two against the spread through the first
Speaker 1: four weeks. So either that trend is going to end,
Speaker 1: but I'm willing to ride it in this spot.
Speaker 2: Chad Millman All lads provided by DraftKings Sharper Square. First
Speaker 2: of all, if we get we're going to get the
Speaker 2: Podreis Dodgers, great series, insane, we may get Mets Phillies.
Speaker 2: What are the odds makers say on Dodgers' Podreys Because
Speaker 2: the Dodgers have had pitching injuries all year. This is
Speaker 2: probably the most talented Padres team of my life, including
Speaker 2: the World Series Padres team between Machado Tatis. They're batting
Speaker 2: Champ leading off Jackson Merrill, the rookie. They made moves
Speaker 2: to the trade deadline to bolster their staff. What are
Speaker 2: the odds makers think?
Speaker 1: Well, look, the Dodgers are going to be favored, not
Speaker 1: heavy favorites, like I'm looking right now. Like even in
Speaker 1: the first game, it's minus one thirty plus one fourteen,
Speaker 1: so like, and that's a home game for the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: It's it's not break even, but it's as close as
Speaker 1: it can get without being even. So you're not going
Speaker 1: to get a huge edge, but it's definitely gonna be
Speaker 1: The Dodgers, don't forget as amazing as the Padres have been,
Speaker 1: and you know, the best team in Major League Baseball
Speaker 1: the second half of the year, and a lineup that
Speaker 1: is just cranking right now. And obviously the Dodgers have
Speaker 1: had injury and especially with their rotation, it's still the Dodgers.
Speaker 1: It's still one of the two most popular teams in
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball, and it's still, to use NFL betting parlance,
Speaker 1: they're the public team. So the bookmakers are going to
Speaker 1: shade it in favor of the Dodgers if there is
Speaker 1: ever even a remote possibility that two teams are even now.
Speaker 1: Also the fact they won, there's going to be some
Speaker 1: kind of home field advantage if there needs to be,
Speaker 1: so you're going to get the Dodgers as slight favorites.
Speaker 2: As Olas Sharper Square Chad Millman, thank.
Speaker 1: You see your brother the volume.
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