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Speaker 2: Game Time? Immediate reaction, Holy shit, what a night of sports?

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Speaker 2: May have been the best Thursday night football game I've

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Speaker 2: ever seen. Thirty six thirty Kirk Cousins. Oh my god,

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Speaker 2: five hundred plus yards for Kirk Cousins. Was it four

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Speaker 2: touchdown passes? Baker had what three touchdown passes? It's just

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Speaker 2: a flurry. I lost count. Jeez, what a night. I

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Speaker 2: mean this, I'm doing this on the fly here, I'm

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Speaker 2: just looking thirty six thirty, Yeah, Baker nineteen and twenty four,

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Speaker 2: three touchdowns. Listen to these numbers for Kirk Cousins forty

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Speaker 2: two of fifty eight, four touchdowns, five hundred and nine yards, Colin.

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Speaker 2: I can't believe that Lena paid Kirk Cousins and drafted

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Speaker 2: Michael Pennix.

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Speaker 3: It should be fired.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, having two quarterbacks, it's terrible thing in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: Just terrible. So first of all that that game was crazy.

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Speaker 2: October has arrived and SOA's offense. I mean, this just

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Speaker 2: shows you how close this league is. So Atlanta. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you know, they get Darnell Mooney drops that ball six

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Speaker 2: minutes left, and you're thinking they just blew it wide

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Speaker 2: open Darnell Mooney. But Rahe Morris, like good coaches, kept

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Speaker 2: his timeouts. They were able to stop tamp on that drive.

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Speaker 2: Time out, time out, time out, get it back, ball

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Speaker 2: punted in the end zone, get it back. And this

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Speaker 2: is what Captain Kirk does. He's a professional quarterback in

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Speaker 2: this and this shows you. We talked about this on

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Speaker 2: FS one today. The middle class quarterbacks. You know, your

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Speaker 2: uppercross is five or six guys, and then you get

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Speaker 2: into look at all these middle class quarterbacks. Andy Dalton,

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Speaker 2: Sam Darnold, Gino Smith, Baker Mayfield. Kirk Cousins is on

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Speaker 2: the higher end of that, but you don't pay him

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Speaker 2: a fortune. They make good money. Kirk makes good money.

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Speaker 2: But look at all the quarterbacks that don't make the

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Speaker 2: biggest money. Kirk Cousins a lot of weapons, Baker Godwin,

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Speaker 2: Mike Evans, Gino Darnold. You notice that if you're gonna

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Speaker 2: have a B to a B plus quarterback and you

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Speaker 2: don't pay him Dak money, look at the weapons. Dak's

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Speaker 2: a B plus quarterback a minus, you pay him big money.

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Speaker 2: They got one receiver, okay, and they can't. They probably

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Speaker 2: gonna afford Devonte Adams, but they have the worst running

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Speaker 2: back room in the league and the worst run defense.

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Speaker 2: So if you're gonna pay a quarterback the Mahomes money,

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen Lamar. I'm for it, but that's why Kansas

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Speaker 2: City never has a fully formed wide receiver group. But

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Speaker 2: that game tonight's just a I mean, I got notes here.

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Speaker 2: I've been watching it for hours and I'm sitting here

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Speaker 2: and forget my notes. It was just a great wild

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Speaker 2: NFC South football game and you were watching two really

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Speaker 2: good quarterbacks. You know, it's funny about Baker Mayfield. We

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Speaker 2: talked about this today on the show. If you give

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Speaker 2: Baker a pocket and Atlanta doesn't have much of a

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Speaker 2: pass rush, I think al Michaels said to Night or

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Speaker 2: Kirk Krbstreet said tonight that they just all season long,

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Speaker 2: they have generated like no pass rush in the first half,

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Speaker 2: and I forget what the stat was, But you give

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Speaker 2: Baker time to throw and let him step into it.

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Speaker 2: Dude's got a big arm. Same with Gino Smith, big arm.

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Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins doesn't have that arm, but his ability to

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Speaker 2: melt the clock. He is a classic professional quarterback. He

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Speaker 2: is a just a pro. That final drive is just

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Speaker 2: so smart, you know what I mean? And give Atlanta

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Speaker 2: backs and receivers Kyle Pitts credit out of bounds, Get

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Speaker 2: out of bounds that's a team, you know. Raheem Morris

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Speaker 2: got that job in Tampa, wasn't quite ready for it.

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Speaker 2: Goes eventually to Sean McVay. They become tight friends. Watches McVeigh.

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Speaker 2: He becomes a very offensive, friendly defensive coach like Demiko

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Speaker 2: Ryans with Kyle Shanahan a very offensive, friendly defensive coach

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Speaker 2: Demiko Brans. Raheem Morris watched those teams situationally with their offense.

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Speaker 2: You know, I thought just the way Atlanta preserved their

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Speaker 2: timeouts tonight in the game, they could have easily lost.

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Speaker 2: You don't waste timeouts. They had them late. You know,

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Speaker 2: it was funny when they gave the ball to Kirk Cousins.

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Speaker 2: I forget, was like a minute twenty six left, and

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Speaker 2: I'm thinking, you know, he's not Brady, but I'm thinking

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Speaker 2: this is Kirk. They'll be fine. They'll get into field

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Speaker 2: goal range, you know. I mean, you got and something

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Speaker 2: has happened in the NFL. I can't explain it. It's

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Speaker 2: happened overnight. Fifty yard field goals are suddenly no big deal,

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Speaker 2: no idea. I have no idea what's happened, But I mean,

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Speaker 2: this thing tonight, it's just like fifty three yard field

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Speaker 2: goals are made with ease. So God, the NFL's crazy.

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Speaker 2: It's just nuts. Tonight's game was nuts. And the other

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Speaker 2: thing where you have to give the Falcons major credit,

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Speaker 2: and this is Kirk Cousins, because Atlanta's got a pretty

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Speaker 2: young team. I mean there's a lot of younger players, backs,

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Speaker 2: wide receivers. Drake London's a younger player. Kirk's captain, Kirks

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Speaker 2: the veteran. Did you notice? And this is coaching and

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Speaker 2: it's Kirk Cousins. How little time the Falcons had and

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Speaker 2: how quickly they got to the line of scrimmage to

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Speaker 2: get the ball down it one second left, Okay, that's execution.

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Speaker 2: Atlanta had so many opportunities to lose this game. They

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Speaker 2: preserved their timeouts. The two minute drill was magical. They

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Speaker 2: rushed to the line to stop the clock. That is

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Speaker 2: a well coached team. How about that Kirk Cousins Raheem

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Speaker 2: Morris meeting in the end. I mean they just looked

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Speaker 2: at each other like I need you. This is why

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Speaker 2: we got you. I love it. All these all these

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks Dalton Gino Baker, Cousins, Sam Darnold, they don't get

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Speaker 2: all the high in love classic Thursday night football game,

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Speaker 2: and I also Blazing five tomorrow. It's a crafty week.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna hear from Chad Millman in about five minutes.

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Speaker 2: I also have to talk about this baseball series. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, the New York Mets. I don't think they

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Speaker 2: have the talent of the Padres overall, or the Dodgers,

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Speaker 2: or probably the Yankees. But the fact that Pete Alonso,

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Speaker 2: you know, he's a classic slugger, he goes into extended slumps.

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Speaker 2: Home run Derby guy hits the biggest home run of

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Speaker 2: his career tonight in the ninth for the Mets as

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Speaker 2: they go on to beat the Brewers. But this is

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Speaker 2: what's crazy about it. So the New York Mets has

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Speaker 2: been a franchise since nineteen sixty two. I went and

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Speaker 2: looked it up and that was like the Casey Stengle

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Speaker 2: Polo Grounds nineteen sixty two. The Philadelphia Phillies were formed

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Speaker 2: in the late eighteen hundreds, So the first baseball team ever,

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Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Red Stockings, was like eighteen sixty nine. Phillies

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Speaker 2: were in the National League like fifteen years later. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think they were playing in a street corner. I mean,

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Speaker 2: who knows. I don't know it was it Connie Max

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Speaker 2: Stadium or something like that. I don't know. Some baseball

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Speaker 2: historian will know it. So just think about that. The

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Speaker 2: Phillies have been around since the eighteen hundreds. The Mets

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Speaker 2: have been around since nineteen sixty two. I'm reading it

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Speaker 2: on a piece of paper right now. The Phillies have

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Speaker 2: been to eight World Series. These two teams, Mets Phillies'

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Speaker 2: rivals have never met in the playoffs. What they have

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Speaker 2: never met in the playoffs before tonight? Have you ever

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Speaker 2: wanted to win a beer at a bar with trivia?

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Speaker 2: They've never met in the playoffs. I think the Phillies

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Speaker 2: is a better team. But you know, the Mets have

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Speaker 2: been red hot since mid June. A lot have come

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Speaker 2: from behind victories, and there is a magic to it,

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Speaker 2: you know, these teams. I mean, there's a reason you've

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Speaker 2: heard comeback kids, cardiac kids. You see it in football

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Speaker 2: and baseball at the time. They're just these teams that

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Speaker 2: get on rolls. They're very comfortable playing from behind. They

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Speaker 2: often have power in the lineup. So I mean, listen,

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Speaker 2: outside of the NFL, almost all sports are somewhat dependent

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Speaker 2: on who gets into the finals. You know, you're Wimbledon's

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Speaker 2: going to be rated higher if it has its biggest

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Speaker 2: stars in it. You know, the US Open in golf, obviously,

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Speaker 2: Tiger in some of the big hitters, now Brooks Kepka

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Speaker 2: can drive a number. Nobody questions that. Or it's the

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Speaker 2: Masters or the US Open at Pebble Beach or Pinehurst.

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Speaker 2: Obviously there are you know, Ohio State meet to Texas

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Speaker 2: in a national championship. That's going to get a twenty

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Speaker 2: Buckeys and Longhorns have two of the biggest, most rabid

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Speaker 2: fan bases. You know, Michigan last year planned for Natty

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Speaker 2: got a huge rating. It matters situationally, anfl kind of

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Speaker 2: bulletproof beyond brand. So, I mean, Green Bay is one

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Speaker 2: of your more popular franchises. So is Pittsburgh, and they're

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Speaker 2: considered smaller markets. But in baseball, Mets Phillies, that's who

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Speaker 2: Major League Baseball Center over to London to play. That

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Speaker 2: was an o marquee, big power hitters, marquee big major markets.

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Speaker 2: And Padres Dodgers, which is a really used to be

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Speaker 2: Dodger San Francisco, but the Podres Dodgers over the last

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Speaker 2: four or five years become a great, great series. You know,

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Speaker 2: Dodgers big brother, Padres little brother. But the Podres now

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Speaker 2: they pay like I mean, they have a salary cap

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Speaker 2: that feels more Boston than it does historically San Diego.

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Speaker 2: So that's going to be a great series. The National League,

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Speaker 2: I mean, Major League Baseball could not have picked four

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Speaker 2: better teams to get in. Northeast rivals, West Coast rivals.

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Speaker 2: You know, population centers so good for baseball. I mean

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Speaker 2: I came home tonight, I thought, yeah, I'll watch an

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Speaker 2: NFC South game, a little baseball game and Pete Alonzo's homer.

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Speaker 2: I have never heard of stadium get quieter faster than

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Speaker 2: in Milwaukee. Great fans, by the way, great fans.

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Speaker 1: Team.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they got a lot of young players. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I gotta go to bed. I gotta go to bed.

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Speaker 2: If I had Champagne, I'd pop an open just to

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Speaker 2: celebrate the night of sports. We'll see it tomorrow. Let's

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Speaker 2: got off to a dubious start O nine to one,

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Speaker 2: weeks three four OK, caught fire in week five, had

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Speaker 2: a five and oh several four and ones similarly this year,

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Speaker 2: I'm done messing around.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you know what I do think and I feel

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Speaker 1: said this before. I think is betters whether we are

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Speaker 1: novices or professionals. It's taking two to three weeks to

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Speaker 1: figure out who these teams are, whereas if we had

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Speaker 1: more preseason games, we might have more of an assessment

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Speaker 1: and so we can make better decisions faster. I also

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Speaker 1: have a really cool stat for you that I think

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Speaker 1: is making it a little bit harder to make accurate

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Speaker 1: prediction protectively.

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Speaker 2: Let me hear, Let me hear that, Let me hear that.

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Speaker 1: So this year, this year, the average spread in games.

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Speaker 2: Crazy, there's no big spreads.

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Speaker 1: Four point two points per game is the spread I

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Speaker 1: think this weekend, let me see if I can find

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Speaker 1: this like there have been I think there's two games

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Speaker 1: where the spread is seven or more. This is one

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Speaker 1: of the most parody examples that we've had in the

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Speaker 1: spread yep, in history, like going back to the nineteen sixties,

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Speaker 1: So there are huge challenges. What it means is every

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Speaker 1: half point matters that much more. Right. Think about the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys game this past week against the Giants on two

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Speaker 1: Thursdays ago.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, the spread.

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Speaker 1: Opened at five and a half. Then it went down

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Speaker 1: to five. Then it went down to four and a half,

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Speaker 1: then it went down to four, then it went up

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Speaker 1: to four and a half. They went up to five,

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Speaker 1: five and a half, someplaces six. The game landed on five.

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Speaker 1: And while that happens all the time, it's happening more often.

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Speaker 1: It means those half points means so much more as

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Speaker 1: a percentage of value.

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Speaker 2: Well, and also when I do my blazing five, I

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Speaker 2: often get the worst of the number. It's not an excuse,

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Speaker 2: it's a reality. I'm betting Thursday and Friday. It is

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Speaker 2: what it is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'll give you a game, a prime example

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Speaker 2: that I think part of me thing you take the game.

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Speaker 2: But this is my dilemma. So Cleveland getting three and

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Speaker 2: a half against Washington, they get Nick Chubb back. But

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Speaker 2: I wonder if two things, Deshaun Watson is washed. Secondly,

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Speaker 2: though they haven't faced great competition, Washington's domination of Arizona

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Speaker 2: makes me think, do we have the next Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 2: in Washington. There's a certain harmony with Cliff Kingsbury and

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Speaker 2: Jade Daniels. It's not like they're completing seventy percent of

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Speaker 2: the throws, it's like eighty two. So my gut, my

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Speaker 2: history says, Cleveland plus three and a half against a

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Speaker 2: rookie quarterback feels like a really smart side. Sharper square.

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Speaker 1: It's there's gonna be games, Colin, and we've talked about this.

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Speaker 1: We'll do the sharp Calls segment on the favorites where

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Speaker 1: the wise guys, professional betters will weigh in with their

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Speaker 1: feedback on the games that we talk about. We talk

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Speaker 1: about them on Tuesday. On Thursday, we go over sharp calls.

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Speaker 1: Four or five games this week. Washington is one of them.

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Speaker 1: Massive split. The right side is to play Cleveland at

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Speaker 1: three and a half, You're one hundred percent right. It's

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Speaker 1: not because of the rookie quarterback. Jaden Daniels has already

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Speaker 1: proven he's preternaturally gifted. Like what he has done in

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Speaker 1: the first four weeks of the season is indicative of

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Speaker 1: what you will do over the course of a season. Right,

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Speaker 1: and his accuracy stats, as you mentioned, they are not

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Speaker 1: just good for a rookie, they are good historically in

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Speaker 1: the history of quarterbacking. This is a bi low cell

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Speaker 1: high situation. Right, you want to get off the commanders

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Speaker 1: right now, because they had that big win against the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Then they went and blew out Arizona in a game

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Speaker 1: a lot of professional bettles. We're betting in Arizona. Meanwhile, Cleveland,

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Speaker 1: they're fading. The line flipped last week when Max Crofty

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Speaker 1: was out and DeVante Adams was out for the Raiders

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Speaker 1: and the brown went from being underdogs to being favorites

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Speaker 1: and then they still lost. Here's the challenge, and it's

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Speaker 1: why the game is so split, and it's why a

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Speaker 1: lot of wise guys are taking the half point, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of people they're just passing. This offensive line

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Speaker 1: for Cleveland is in shambles, and now Ethan Pozick, who

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Speaker 1: was the center who went out last week, there are

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Speaker 1: questions about his ability to play this week. And they

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Speaker 1: are already lacking other offensive linemen that has been killing

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Speaker 1: their running game, which has always been good. Forget about

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Speaker 1: Nick Chubb, Is David and Joku gonna play. If Djoku plays,

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Speaker 1: that makes Deshaun Watson a little bit better. But generally

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Speaker 1: this team is struggling at every single position on the

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Speaker 1: field defensively as well, like they have not been playing

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Speaker 1: well defensively. Miles Garrett has already said he's got injuries

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Speaker 1: to his feet that are going to require surgery. To listen,

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Speaker 1: I want to bet the Browns so bad in this game.

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Speaker 1: I do, I really do, Like I can't pull the

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Speaker 1: trigger yet. I might, I might, the wise guys still

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Speaker 1: might come in. It's not one of my favorite plays.

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Speaker 2: So I believe two things are true simultaneously. That quarterbacking

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Speaker 2: matters more now than ten years ago, and coaching does.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a gap in coaching in this league,

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Speaker 2: and you're seeing it on a regular basis. I think

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Speaker 2: Minnesota has the best coaching staff in the league, Brian

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Speaker 2: Flores arguably the best defensive coordinator, where top quarterback C. J.

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Speaker 2: Stroud Brock pretty acknowledge. I don't know what I saw.

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Speaker 2: Minnesota doesn't even have to give off a field goal. Oh,

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Speaker 2: by the way, massive pressure on a team I think

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Speaker 2: is one of the most poorly coached between Nat Hackett

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Speaker 2: and Robert Sala. If it's three, I stay away. If

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Speaker 2: I only have to swallow two and a half Darnold

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Speaker 2: and Aaron Rodgers, it's a lot closer right now than

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Speaker 2: you think. I would swallow the two and a half

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Speaker 2: in London and take minutes soda sharper square.

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Speaker 1: So historically you're on the right side. I think their

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Speaker 1: record for favorites in London just straight up thirty four

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Speaker 1: to ten and one, Yes, thirty and fifteen against the spread.

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Speaker 1: So that is the right side. The wise guys have

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Speaker 1: a they can't quit Annie Rodgers. They can't quit the

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Speaker 1: Jets right now, so they have been coming in on

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Speaker 1: the Jets. But I agree with you. The right side

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Speaker 1: is the Vikings. It's not a sharp side by any measure,

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Speaker 1: but it is the side where you probably are going

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Speaker 1: to have a better opportunity because of what's happened historically.

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Speaker 2: Okay, something that I believed for a long time, a

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Speaker 2: little zigzag theory. When a really good team is humiliated

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Speaker 2: in a standalone game, take them the following week. Yes,

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Speaker 2: Buffalo minus one at Houston without Joe Mixon, C J.

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Speaker 2: Strout all you. All quarterbacks need run games, young quarterbacks especially,

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Speaker 2: it's not quite the same without Joe Mixon. A healthy

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Speaker 2: Joe Mixon, Buffalo is an excellent team, much more depth,

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Speaker 2: more layered offensively than years before. The linebackers are healthier,

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Speaker 2: completely utterly humiliated. I would swallow the point and take

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Speaker 2: Buffalo Sharper square.

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Speaker 1: Square, totally square. This is a massive public game where

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Speaker 1: the fans are coming in and they love the Bills

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Speaker 1: and normally and there are stats to back this up,

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Speaker 1: which I'm sure we will get to. You get blown out.

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Speaker 1: You want to be the team that is being bet

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Speaker 1: on in the next game. Here's what's challenging for this game.

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Speaker 1: Number One, the line has flipped. It's gone from Buffalo

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Speaker 1: being the underdog Buffalo being the favorite. That is a

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Speaker 1: side where you want to be on the underdog. That

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Speaker 1: is a historical trend where when the line flips, you

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Speaker 1: bet the underdog number one, number two on the field.

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Speaker 1: The challenge with the Bills is that the middle of

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Speaker 1: their defense, from their linebackers to their safeties is just trash. Right.

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Speaker 1: Matt Milano has been out since before the season started.

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Speaker 1: His backup out tomorrow. Hamlin is not a top notch

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Speaker 1: safety in the way they have had top notch safeties

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Speaker 1: in the past. Nico Collins is a game wrecker right now.

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Speaker 1: So CJ. Shroud improves his third down efficiency just a

357
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Speaker 1: little bit and will probably have that opportunity to take

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Speaker 1: advantage of the middle of the field against that Bill's defense.

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Speaker 1: Then all of a sudden, you're playing yourself out of

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Speaker 1: a game. So the wise guys are on the Texans

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Speaker 1: and they're hoping to keep getting plus one and a

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Speaker 1: half so they can get a little bit of a cushion.

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Speaker 1: But again, what's interesting that half point means everything in

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Speaker 1: these games where the spreads are between one and four, right,

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Speaker 1: So that's a massive, massive edge.

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Speaker 2: So Green Bay and I said, I didn't bet the

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Speaker 2: Packers Vikings because my guest was there were two possible

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Speaker 2: outcomes and I actually saw both in the Vikings Packers game. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Brian Flores first half against Jordan Love, Jordan looked like

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Speaker 2: he hadn't played a lot. Second half gets his feet

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Speaker 2: under him. Green Bay pivots at half, and then you

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Speaker 2: see the real Packers team that can play with anybody.

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Speaker 2: So I think the second half Packers is the team

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Speaker 2: I'm getting. There's still a major problem with the Rams.

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Speaker 2: With no Pokah and Cooper Cup, they can't get touchdowns

376
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Speaker 2: in the red zone. They have no playmaker, Tyler Higbee

377
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 2: out Pooka out, Cooper Cup out, Blake Korum not playing much,

378
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 2: missing their best offensive lineman on the interior. So the

379
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 2: Rams even when they outplay you, they're just settling for

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Speaker 2: field goals. I think the second half Green Bay team

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Speaker 2: minus three, I don't think it's a strong play, but

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Speaker 2: I take the Packers. There is no home field advantage.

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Speaker 2: It'll be sixty five thirty five. Packer fan Sharper Square.

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Speaker 1: Ailed the biggest Pros Joe's game on the board with

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Speaker 1: the Pros playing the Los Angeles Rams. So on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: me and my co host Simon Hunter, you're always trying

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Speaker 1: to put us against each other. We like to bring

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Speaker 1: we like to bring love to the Volume podcast network.

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Speaker 1: But you're trying to, you know, create animosity.

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Speaker 2: I like conflict.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you like conflict. Listen, That's why you're a content genius.

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Speaker 1: You know, conflict creates really great ratings. I came in

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, Simon, the Packers are the side here.

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Speaker 1: We saw the second half they were in that game

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Speaker 1: against the Vikings. Brian Flores has been making CJ. Stroud

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Speaker 1: and Brock Purty see Ghosts and Jordan love. When it

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00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 1: was coming down to it was right there, like that

398
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: was a scary, scary game. If you were a Vikings Packer,

399
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Speaker 1: you got to take the Packers here against a team

400
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 1: in the Rams that can't put anyone in the field.

401
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 1: It has comment to me it was don't get cocky,

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00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 1: and sure enough, as the week went on, this was

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Speaker 1: the game that all the wise guys were coming in on.

404
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 1: You saw the line move from three and a half

405
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Speaker 1: down to three. Even with all the tickets coming in

406
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: on the Packers, it stayed exactly where it is. It's

407
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Speaker 1: pretty astonishing how much the wise guys like the Rams. Here,

408
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 1: I'm going to be on the Rams. I'm hoping that

409
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: I can wait until Sunday and get three and a

410
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 1: half again when everybody is coming in and the public

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00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 1: comes in on the Packers. One stat I can give you,

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Speaker 1: and similar to why wise guys are thinking about the Browns,

413
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Speaker 1: is when you're playing a team covering the spread by

414
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Speaker 1: more than five points per game. So then, in this

415
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Speaker 1: case the Packers, they only cover about forty five percent

416
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: of the time when facing a team with a win

417
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: percentage of less than sixty. So I know it's a

418
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 1: lot of numbers, but basically, when bad teams play good teams,

419
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Speaker 1: bad teams cover.

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Speaker 2: Giant Seahawks. Rarely have I ever been more impressed with

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Speaker 2: a losing team on Monday Night Football. So Seattle in

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00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: Detroit standalone game, missing their top four defensive linemen, you

423
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 2: knew they couldn't stop Detroit. Seattle has two things going

424
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: for it. Their skill players Walker dk Metcalf tight ends

425
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 2: Gino's playing. I mean, he's completing seventy seven percent of

426
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 2: his throws, and I think Mike McDonald's excellent. They're getting

427
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 2: a couple of their defensive linemen back New York. If

428
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 2: Malik Neighbors doesn't play in this environment, I don't know

429
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 2: how the Giants moved the ball. McDonald is really clever,

430
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 2: and he's been really good against averaged to below average quarterbacks.

431
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 2: I came out of that Seahawks game and I'm like,

432
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 2: I would not want to play them. I think if

433
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,679
Speaker 2: those two teams met again and Seattle was reasonably healthy,

434
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 2: I wonder if I'd take Seattle. I'm gonna swallow the six.

435
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 2: I know I'm a dullered, but sharper square.

436
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're a duller because you're on the right side

437
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: at a bad number. And what is the theme of

438
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 1: today's show, Get the best of the number? Right? This

439
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 1: game opened at five, I think maybe five and a half.

440
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 1: That lasted for maybe seventeen and a half seconds before

441
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: the wise guys took the five and a half took

442
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: the six. By the time most of America got up

443
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 1: on Monday morning, it was at six and a half,

444
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,199
Speaker 1: where it's been sitting except for today, where it's starting

445
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: to creep up to seven. You are seeing some sevens

446
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: out there. Don't do it. There's a lot of games

447
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: like you're just setting yourself up for disaster because there's

448
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: so much variance in these games, and teams that have

449
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 1: been seven point favorites or more this year are crushing it.

450
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 1: So you're hoping there's some aggression, but this is like

451
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: they're eight and five straight up this year, So you're

452
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 1: really playing with fire to bet the worst of the

453
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 1: number on a big underdog.

454
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 2: Divisional rival game, a desperate team Cincinnati plus two and

455
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 2: a half facing a Baltimore team that played perfect football.

456
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 2: Division rival underdog great quarterback Joe Burrow Ravens played a

457
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 2: perfect football game. The numbers tell me, history tells me.

458
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 2: You take the dog in Cincinnati in a desperate spot.

459
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 2: Sharper square book it.

460
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: Finally you got one. It's totally sharp. This game was

461
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 1: that two and a half. The public bettered up to three.

462
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 1: It's been back back down to two and a half.

463
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: I wish you could say that, you know, if you're

464
00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 1: going to put this in blazing five, you're saying you're

465
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: going to get it at plus three. I'm not sure

466
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: you'll get there. But look, it's not a by low

467
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: sell high situation, but it is a sell high on

468
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: the Ravens. And take advantage of the public sentiment that

469
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 1: people don't think the Bengals are very good because they

470
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,440
Speaker 1: just won their first game and it was against the Panthers,

471
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 1: and even that the Panthers had a chance to be

472
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 1: in the game. The Bengals defense is just not very

473
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:30,120
Speaker 1: good right now. But Joe Burrow is playing MVP quality football.

474
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,719
Speaker 1: You look at what he's doing throwing touchdowns, he's not

475
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 1: turning the ball over like he's having a great year.

476
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 1: This team is getting better. Like you said, they're desperate.

477
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: They're at home these games in the division for the

478
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: AFC North against teams that are of hype equal quality,

479
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 1: they are always really close. Home Division dogs fifty four

480
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 1: percent against the spread since twenty twenty. In the last decade,

481
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: Home Division dogs in September October sixty percent against the spread.

482
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 1: The reason why that matters is because that's when every

483
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 1: team is competitive. Right. So sometimes you get to the

484
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: end of the year, you've got these division games, teams

485
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: might be out of it. There might be playoff contention

486
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: where they're no longer which is no longer a possibility.

487
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: So it's a very good representation when teams in the

488
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: division play about the intensity of those games.

489
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,280
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Speaker 2: Okay, I like Pittsburgh minus two and a half of

520
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 2: the Cowboys TJ Watt against the rookie left tackle. It's

521
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 2: a standalone game justin fields under Arthur Smith is not

522
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 2: as turnover prone. And I mean this is a classic

523
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 2: example to me of what the Steelers can do offensively

524
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 2: is run the ball, and the Cowboys defensive run defense

525
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 2: is thirty second in the league. I don't have to

526
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 2: love the Pittsburgh Steelers offensively, but there are things they're

527
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: excellent at doing. I'm not sure what Dallas does well

528
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 2: at this point, I would swallow the two and a

529
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 2: half in Pittsburgh Sharper square.

530
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 1: Totally sharp wise, guys love this game. It's sort of

531
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 1: a reverse raw ra on Mike Tomlin spot. Normally you

532
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 1: don't like back in Mike Tomlin as a favorite, right,

533
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: and we saw that last week. I was all over

534
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 1: the cults last week when this Steelers were on the

535
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 1: road playing in Indie. But he's coming off a loss.

536
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 1: So even though he's a favorite, it's a good rob

537
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: Ross spot for the coach who has been enormal successful

538
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: motivating his team. But they all, let's look at the field.

539
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 1: Dallas was already thin and bad defensively. Now they are

540
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 1: thinner and worse. No Micah Parsons, no DeMarcus Lawrence on offense.

541
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks is out in the backfield. They really have

542
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 1: no running game to speak up. From a matchup point

543
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 1: of view, it lines up perfectly for the Steelers in

544
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 1: every way they have an edge. You want to be

545
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 1: able to run the ball, you want to get the

546
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: ball out of Justin Field's hands, or you want to

547
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: peep the ball in his hands for RPOs. Arthur Smith,

548
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: Steelers offensive coordinator, has been amazing this year a game

549
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 1: planning to put Justin Fields in a position to succeed.

550
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: The only time that hasn't worked is when they were

551
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: losing and all of a sudden he had to start

552
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 1: making plays throwing the ball down field, and that's when

553
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: he's fumbling. He's making bad decisions. They will likely have

554
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 1: a lead in this game. They will likely be able

555
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 1: to nurse a lead in this game, and then it's

556
00:32:58,080 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: going to be up to Dak Prescott to throw the

557
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: Cowboys back into the game, and he's going to be

558
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: going against TJ. Watt, and that's when the Steelers really

559
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: cycle up the opportunity to win. So yeah, we're all

560
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 1: over the Steelers in this game.

561
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 2: Saints plus five and a half at Kansas City with

562
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 2: no Rashi Rice, So it's not a great offensive line

563
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 2: but Checko still not back, not as formatable a run game.

564
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 2: You lost your number one receiver. Xavier Worthy could become

565
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 2: a volume receiver, He's certainly not that now. I think

566
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 2: the Saints can hang around. Chiefs will win, But five

567
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 2: and a half seems really really rich.

568
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: Sharper Square totally sharp. The Saints of the right side here,

569
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 1: and don't be sort of dissuaded by the outings they've

570
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 1: had the past couple of weeks. They were incredibly unlucky.

571
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: We've talked about the luck rankings on this show, which

572
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: is basically a formula our math geniuses have devised to

573
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 1: separate the signal from the noise and identify regression either

574
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:03,479
Speaker 1: positively or negatively. Right. So last week, the last two weeks,

575
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 1: the Saints have been incredibly unlucky. The Chiefs have still

576
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 1: been lucky, right, and they will acknowledge that they are

577
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: playing at a higher level than their talent because Patrick

578
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 1: Mahomes is so much better than everybody else. This is

579
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: the biggest difference in luck we have in our luck

580
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 1: rankings this week, twenty eight spots separating them. That number

581
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,399
Speaker 1: if a difference in the luck rankings of twenty eight

582
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 1: or more sixty five percent against the spread. If the

583
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,280
Speaker 1: team that's unlucky is on the road seventy eight percent

584
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 1: against the spread, I'll throw even more at you, Colin.

585
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: Think about Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of more than

586
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 1: a field goal under five hundred against the spread. You

587
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 1: want to talk about Derek Carr. Derek Carr gets a

588
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 1: lot of hate from everybody, deservedly so, but as an

589
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: underdog the past twenty years, if he is playing a

590
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: team that scores less than twenty one points in a game,

591
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: he has a top five against the spread record with

592
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 1: guys like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees. How many

593
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: points a game are the Kansas City Chiefs averaging eighteen

594
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: something like that? So the stars are aligning for New

595
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: Orleans to cover against the Kansas City Chiefs.

596
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 2: I don't know what the over under should be for

597
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 2: Denver in Las Vegas, but in a game that could

598
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:35,280
Speaker 2: end up seventeen fourteen, I'm going to take the points

599
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 2: with the Raiders two and a half against bone Knicks.

600
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 2: I like bon Knicks. There's limitations. I just don't see

601
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 2: the points here. I think Denver's defense has actually paid

602
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 2: really well, and I think it will hold brock Bowers

603
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 2: DeVante Adams. I don't think that trade happens till after

604
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 2: this weekend. I have to take the points here with

605
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 2: the Raiders in a division rivalry game. Sharper Square.

606
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's why you do take the points is because

607
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: it's the division rivalry game. Because why would you take

608
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,399
Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback as a favorite when he just came

609
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 1: off a game where he literally had the most putrid

610
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 1: offensive stats that have happened since the nineteen sixties. You know,

611
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 1: minus seven yards passing at one point. But the challenge

612
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 1: here and the wise guys are totally split, so you're

613
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 1: not going to get like a definitive Sharper Square. Personally,

614
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: I have bet the Raiders at plus two and a half.

615
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 1: But I know a lot of guys who are taking

616
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: the Broncos here. Their defense isn't just good, their defense

617
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: is elite, like they're playing at a top five level.

618
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: And you're going against a Raiders team where Max Crosby

619
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: we still don't know what kind of health he will

620
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 1: be in for the game. They have offensive line issues

621
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 1: as well. Obviously Devonte Adams will not be playing in

622
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 1: that game. I don't know that that matters to me.

623
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 1: That's not a reason to bet or not bet. But

624
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:58,439
Speaker 1: I do think Gardner Mischew under pressure about sixty two

625
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 1: percent QBR and he's not under pressure. He's in the nineties.

626
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 1: So something the Broncos do really well is pressure the

627
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 1: quarterback top five, So that's going to be a challenge.

628
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,720
Speaker 1: I think I'm still gonna be on the Raiders because

629
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 1: ultimately I like the trend of betting the division the

630
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 1: dogs in the division. But it's a tricky one. It's

631
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: not like a definitive Sharper square.

632
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 2: Okay. I always ask you for a game that I

633
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 2: did not bet, but I kind of have a weird

634
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 2: feeling about it. So it's Panthers plus three and a

635
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 2: half at the Bears. So Caleb's gotten better every week,

636
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 2: And I ask you about a game that I feel

637
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 2: like the number tells me bet Carolina. Not that they'll

638
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 2: be regression, but Andy Dalton is moving the ball. You know,

639
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 2: these middle class quarterbacks, forget politicians. They have saved the

640
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:56,320
Speaker 2: middle class in America. Darnald Baker, Gino Dalton. I mean, really,

641
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 2: these middle guys who are good at their craft, you

642
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 2: don't pay a ton. They all have good weapons, I

643
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 2: take Carolina here right.

644
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on Carolina now. This is another one to

645
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 1: bring it full circle. Sunday night. Sunday night, we'll do

646
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: a show the Favorites Podcast at seven thirty. We will

647
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: do it as soon as the late afternoon East Coast

648
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: games end will be off the air before the Sunday

649
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 1: night football game. The point of the show is to

650
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 1: preview the early lines that we already like where we

651
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 1: want to get an edge. This line Sunday Night, seven thirty,

652
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: Carolina plus five. I bet it right away. It went

653
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,399
Speaker 1: down to four and a half, It went down to four,

654
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 1: it went down to three and a half. Wise guys

655
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 1: took it at three and a half. I still think

656
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 1: you're getting half a point of value on Carolina at

657
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: three and a half. I don't think the Bears in

658
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 1: a position to be four point favorites over anybody, even

659
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 1: though Kayla Williams is three and one against the and

660
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: has done this in an unprecedented way for rookie quarterbacks.

661
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 1: This is really coming down to Carolina being an incredibly

662
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 1: good run blocking team. Pro Football Focus does these great

663
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 1: ratings and rankings of every player, but also every unit

664
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 1: in every kind of style. Carolina is run blocking this

665
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 1: year is top two in the league. The Bear's run

666
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,320
Speaker 1: defense is mediocre. And I do think with Andy Dalton,

667
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: who is going to have a harder time throwing against

668
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 1: the Bears coverage which is really excellent, and throwing against

669
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: their pass rush, which has also been excellent, they are

670
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: going to try to change the pace of this game,

671
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 1: make it a slower game, which will be probably lower scoring,

672
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 1: be a little bit closer. So I still like anything

673
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 1: with Carolina over a field goal.

674
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: Do you look as we move into October at weather

675
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,919
Speaker 2: in Chicago, because if it's choppy and windy, it helps

676
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 2: Carolina totally.

677
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 1: I mean, look, Andy Dalton, this is what's interesting about

678
00:39:55,960 --> 00:40:01,800
Speaker 1: the Panthers, and every professional better loved the Panthers coming

679
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,959
Speaker 1: into this season. They felt like they had made huge

680
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 1: improvements on their offensive line primarily, that is why. And

681
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 1: they thought Dave knelis coming in. He had done wonders

682
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:13,919
Speaker 1: with Gino in Seattle, he had done wonders with Baker

683
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 1: Mayfield in Tampa. We thought that he would do well

684
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 1: with Bryce Young. It's amazing to me two weeks in,

685
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 1: whether it was David Tepper, the owner, or Canalis himself

686
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 1: pulling the cord on Bryce Young, saying our team is

687
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 1: too good, We've got opportunities to win. Let's go with

688
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:31,240
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton. That's when a quarterback like Andy Dalton start

689
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 1: to help you, as in circumstances like that.

690
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 2: All right, what's the game I missed that you like?

691
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 2: It's usually an egregiously bad watch on television.

692
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:43,839
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I can't believe I'm going to say

693
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,320
Speaker 1: this to you. You actually hit most of the games.

694
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 1: You missed one. I'm looking down at my notes here.

695
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 2: Miami New England, No.

696
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 1: Come on, come on. I did explain to my son

697
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 1: the other day. We were watching a bunch of games,

698
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 1: and I forget which game it was. I'm like, this

699
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 1: is the corner TV game and I sort of indoctrinated him.

700
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 1: Like nobody gets it anymore because they got red Zone

701
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:08,959
Speaker 1: and you can, you know, do four boxes of games

702
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 1: or you put up multiple screens in your house. But

703
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 1: like they don't remember that back in the day in

704
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: the sports book, there's a game on in the corner

705
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 1: that nobody wants to watch, but they have to put

706
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 1: it up because somebody bet it. I don't have a

707
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 1: corner that in Miami New England game is the corner

708
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: TV game. I am gonna see if I can entice

709
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,959
Speaker 1: you on a little bit of Arizona at plus seven

710
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 1: and a half against Samprusco forty.

711
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 2: Well McBride, the tight end is healthy. It's a division game.

712
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 2: They've actually had a few moments where they've given the

713
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:40,719
Speaker 2: Niners trouble. I get that. That's again like Burrow, I

714
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:43,320
Speaker 2: don't get a good team. I get a good quarterback

715
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 2: with weapons and points. It's hard not to take it.

716
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, and plus teams to lose by twenty eight like

717
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 1: the Cardinals the previous week twenty eight or more, and

718
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 1: then our dogs are four or more the following week

719
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 1: sixty two percent against the spread the past twenty years,

720
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 1: not just that. If a team that lost by seventeen

721
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 1: is playing a team that won by seventeen or more

722
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 1: the previous week, sixty percent against the spread the past

723
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: twenty years. These division dogs fifty six percent since twenty twenty,

724
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,720
Speaker 1: like NFL dogs. This year we've talked about the dogs

725
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 1: and fade, you know, all that kind of stuff. NFL

726
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,720
Speaker 1: Dogs is six six plus points nine and eighth straight

727
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 1: up fourteen and two against the spread through the first

728
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 1: four weeks. So either that trend is going to end,

729
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 1: but I'm willing to ride it in this spot.

730
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 2: Chad Millman All lads provided by DraftKings Sharper Square. First

731
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 2: of all, if we get we're going to get the

732
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 2: Podreis Dodgers, great series, insane, we may get Mets Phillies.

733
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 2: What are the odds makers say on Dodgers' Podreys Because

734
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 2: the Dodgers have had pitching injuries all year. This is

735
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 2: probably the most talented Padres team of my life, including

736
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 2: the World Series Padres team between Machado Tatis. They're batting

737
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 2: Champ leading off Jackson Merrill, the rookie. They made moves

738
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 2: to the trade deadline to bolster their staff. What are

739
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 2: the odds makers think?

740
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 1: Well, look, the Dodgers are going to be favored, not

741
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: heavy favorites, like I'm looking right now. Like even in

742
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 1: the first game, it's minus one thirty plus one fourteen,

743
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 1: so like, and that's a home game for the Dodgers.

744
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 1: It's it's not break even, but it's as close as

745
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 1: it can get without being even. So you're not going

746
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 1: to get a huge edge, but it's definitely gonna be

747
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 1: The Dodgers, don't forget as amazing as the Padres have been,

748
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: and you know, the best team in Major League Baseball

749
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 1: the second half of the year, and a lineup that

750
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 1: is just cranking right now. And obviously the Dodgers have

751
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 1: had injury and especially with their rotation, it's still the Dodgers.

752
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: It's still one of the two most popular teams in

753
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball, and it's still, to use NFL betting parlance,

754
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 1: they're the public team. So the bookmakers are going to

755
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 1: shade it in favor of the Dodgers if there is

756
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 1: ever even a remote possibility that two teams are even now.

757
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 1: Also the fact they won, there's going to be some

758
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 1: kind of home field advantage if there needs to be,

759
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 1: so you're going to get the Dodgers as slight favorites.

760
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:36,840
Speaker 2: As Olas Sharper Square Chad Millman, thank.

761
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:41,280
Speaker 1: You see your brother the volume.

762
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,

763
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 2: take a moment, rate and review