1
00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:05,160
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

2
00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:10,400
Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All right, here we go

3
00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:16,960
Speaker 1: Probes throwing a job. Spe We're sitting up to cash Toto.

4
00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,920
Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

5
00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:21,360
Speaker 2: go to win.

6
00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:23,720
Speaker 1: God, that's incredible.

7
00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:25,840
Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks.

8
00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,400
Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right, this is the

9
00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:34,240
Speaker 1: ultimate kabak you want to bet? And we are.

10
00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:40,800
Speaker 2: Underway and welcome to another edition of the Action Network podcast.

11
00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:43,600
Speaker 3: This is an NFL Week one betting edition.

12
00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:48,400
Speaker 2: I am Chris Raybon, joined by the Prime Minister of

13
00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:50,760
Speaker 2: Degenerate Nation, mister Stuckey.

14
00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:51,760
Speaker 3: How you doing stuff?

15
00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:52,880
Speaker 1: What's going on? Brother?

16
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:58,080
Speaker 4: I'm excited for NFL aka Roger Ball to get started here.

17
00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,200
Speaker 4: I think we're going to be here for what the

18
00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:05,199
Speaker 4: episodes or so every Thursday coming at you previewing Thursday

19
00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:06,640
Speaker 4: Night Football and Sunday.

20
00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:07,200
Speaker 1: I can't wait.

21
00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is gonna be the ultimate gambling breakdowns for

22
00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,959
Speaker 2: every NFL side from Thursday Night Football through Sunday Night Football.

23
00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,320
Speaker 2: If you're listening, you should be able to take away

24
00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:20,000
Speaker 2: a couple bets. Maybe even if you're adventurous. A moneyline

25
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,600
Speaker 2: parlay will give a teaser. We're gonna go through, you know,

26
00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:24,640
Speaker 2: our top six bets and then and then give you

27
00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:26,720
Speaker 2: a bunch of other picks, our favorite totals.

28
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:27,360
Speaker 3: Stay tuned.

29
00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,920
Speaker 2: We'll run through every game and we're gonna kick it

30
00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:34,440
Speaker 2: off with the Thursday night football game. That is the

31
00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,720
Speaker 2: Greemay Packers. They're going to visit the Chicago Bears. The

32
00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,840
Speaker 2: Bears are currently three point favorites. Total is sitting right

33
00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,440
Speaker 2: now at forty six and a half.

34
00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:45,840
Speaker 1: Stuck.

35
00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:47,240
Speaker 3: How you feeling about this game?

36
00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,320
Speaker 2: You know, does Green Bay benefit from losing Mike McCarthy,

37
00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:51,520
Speaker 2: you know they got rid of him at the end

38
00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:53,520
Speaker 2: of last year. Or is this Chicago team, you know,

39
00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:55,840
Speaker 2: tough to beat week one at home, Matt Naggy.

40
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,760
Speaker 4: Look, the NFL season, they say starts tomorrow night at

41
00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:02,520
Speaker 4: but the official start of the NFL season is when

42
00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:04,040
Speaker 4: Eddie Pinero attempts his first.

43
00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:05,920
Speaker 1: Field goal in the NFL.

44
00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,960
Speaker 4: Regression excuse my language is a bitch, right, and regression

45
00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:11,800
Speaker 4: comes at you hard and teams, you know, it's a

46
00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:12,720
Speaker 4: parody field league.

47
00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:13,560
Speaker 1: I always tell people this.

48
00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:15,720
Speaker 4: For the most part, most teams are within three to

49
00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,080
Speaker 4: four points of each other on a neutral field, right,

50
00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:19,919
Speaker 4: so then it might be seven point favorite at home.

51
00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:21,560
Speaker 4: But most teams are you know that you have some

52
00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:23,920
Speaker 4: really bad teams and then some elite teams, but for

53
00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,240
Speaker 4: the most part, you know, eighty percent, depending on the year,

54
00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,480
Speaker 4: are really close. So what happens is look at the Jags,

55
00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:31,480
Speaker 4: for example, who will get to but two years ago,

56
00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:33,320
Speaker 4: you know, they're in the AFC Championship game.

57
00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:34,480
Speaker 1: Then last year they're terrible.

58
00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,040
Speaker 4: You know, all it takes is some bad injury luck.

59
00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 4: They had, fumble luck, turnover lock, and that can happen

60
00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,399
Speaker 4: on both sides. The Bears, our team that I think

61
00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,239
Speaker 4: is of you know, their win total was seven last

62
00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:45,720
Speaker 4: year even after they got mac and then they won

63
00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,400
Speaker 4: twelve games. Great injury lock, great turnover lock, the one

64
00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:50,800
Speaker 4: of the easiest schedules in the NFL.

65
00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:51,080
Speaker 1: You know.

66
00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:52,400
Speaker 4: So I think that this team and they didn't real

67
00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,760
Speaker 4: approve their team outside of running back, but they're really

68
00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,760
Speaker 4: going to feel the you know, coming back down to

69
00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,120
Speaker 4: earth from last year's run if they can make a

70
00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,079
Speaker 4: kick is in their secondary, their secondary, which is still

71
00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,280
Speaker 4: lead it's still one of the top five in the NFL,

72
00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,359
Speaker 4: but losing amos to the Packers, and by the way,

73
00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,640
Speaker 4: the Packers, their secondary, their safeties were horrendous last year,

74
00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,760
Speaker 4: probably the worst safeties maybe with San Fran in the NFL.

75
00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,760
Speaker 4: And now they got Amos and then the Savage they draft,

76
00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,600
Speaker 4: who will fit right into that system really well. But Chicago.

77
00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:23,440
Speaker 4: Then they also lost one of the best slot corners

78
00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:24,920
Speaker 4: in the NFL and replaced them with one of the

79
00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,639
Speaker 4: worst in buster screeds. So I think their secondary is

80
00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:29,600
Speaker 4: going to take a step back. I think the Bears

81
00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:31,639
Speaker 4: in general, they're just due for some negative regression. And

82
00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:33,520
Speaker 4: then the flip side the Packers. You know, everything went

83
00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,400
Speaker 4: wrong they obviously, you know, they had a ton of

84
00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,920
Speaker 4: bad injury block especially on defense. Rodgers was never healthy,

85
00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,400
Speaker 4: and they really needed a coaching change. It just wasn't working.

86
00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,280
Speaker 4: They needed a new message and they needed a more

87
00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:44,880
Speaker 4: modern offense, which I think they're going to get now.

88
00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:46,600
Speaker 1: If you know, how's it all going to work out?

89
00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:48,800
Speaker 4: I'm not sure, And I think it's going to be positive,

90
00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:50,720
Speaker 4: and I think Aaron Jones will fit in the system.

91
00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:52,520
Speaker 1: What I mean by how's it going to work out? Initially,

92
00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,520
Speaker 1: I'm not sure, especially since Roders didn't play in the preseason.

93
00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:56,320
Speaker 1: It's a new scheme.

94
00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:58,680
Speaker 4: You know, they might be working out some kinks and

95
00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,080
Speaker 4: there might be some rust early. So I'm targeting the

96
00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:06,040
Speaker 4: Packers live for that reason, and also because Mitch Trubisky,

97
00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,680
Speaker 4: who I'm not that high on. He's excellent in the

98
00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:11,480
Speaker 4: first quarter. The reason is he's great in the scripted plays,

99
00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:13,560
Speaker 4: and then as soon as you get to the second quarter.

100
00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,360
Speaker 4: In a third quarter, he starts to struggle. You know,

101
00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:17,200
Speaker 4: he was fifth in quarterback rating last year in the

102
00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,080
Speaker 4: first quarter one hundred and eleven point seven, second quarter

103
00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,480
Speaker 4: eighty five point six, third quarter eighty eight point seven.

104
00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,279
Speaker 1: You're talking bottom third of the league.

105
00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:27,400
Speaker 4: Fourth quarter he's ninety five to seven, which was seventeenth

106
00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,120
Speaker 4: in the legue a little higher if you're playing from

107
00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,760
Speaker 4: behind or ahead. So you know, I think that the

108
00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:33,479
Speaker 4: Bears might get off to a fast star he maybe

109
00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,400
Speaker 4: get a touchdown early. But I think this Packers team

110
00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:37,560
Speaker 4: is going to win this game, but I want to

111
00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:38,920
Speaker 4: catch them live. I think their defense can to be

112
00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,279
Speaker 4: much improved because of those safeties. You got healthy corners.

113
00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:43,920
Speaker 4: You know, two rookies last year that got a ton

114
00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,600
Speaker 4: of playing time in their second year now, So I

115
00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:48,559
Speaker 4: think Packers are going to be one of the biggest

116
00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:50,640
Speaker 4: turnarounds as long as they stay healthy. And the Bears

117
00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:52,840
Speaker 4: are just due for so much regression. I think they're

118
00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,600
Speaker 4: a seven eight win team, So I like the Packers

119
00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:57,560
Speaker 4: might get a little pregame if I can get three

120
00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,680
Speaker 4: and a half for four, but I actually prefer to

121
00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:00,960
Speaker 4: wait for live.

122
00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:02,000
Speaker 1: For some of the reasons I just mentioned.

123
00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,480
Speaker 2: I think you're crazy. I think you're absolutely crazy. I

124
00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:06,160
Speaker 2: think the Bears are much better than a seven eight

125
00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:08,760
Speaker 2: win team. You know, last year was tough for them.

126
00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,200
Speaker 2: Mitch Trubisky coming off of a year his first year

127
00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,240
Speaker 2: in the NFL under John Fox. That's almost like you're

128
00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,480
Speaker 2: better off just coming, you know, straight off the streets

129
00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,240
Speaker 2: and being homeless for a year than playing quarterback under Fox.

130
00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:23,320
Speaker 3: Yes, they lost Vick Fangio. I think that was big, but.

131
00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,440
Speaker 2: Ten of eleven starters weremain This is one of the

132
00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:27,600
Speaker 2: top defenses in the league a year ago.

133
00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:28,760
Speaker 3: And at home.

134
00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe if the line was still plus four for

135
00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,520
Speaker 2: Green Bay or something like that, you'd even consider it.

136
00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:38,000
Speaker 3: But I think the Bears are better than the Green.

137
00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,800
Speaker 2: Bay Packers, and they're treating them like essentially they're equal

138
00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,039
Speaker 2: right now with the Bears being a three point favorite

139
00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:44,360
Speaker 2: at home, I do agree.

140
00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,280
Speaker 3: I think the kicking is the one issue you worry about.

141
00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:48,119
Speaker 2: But I think, you know, having that whole off season

142
00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,560
Speaker 2: for Trubisky in Naggi system, that's a real big benefit.

143
00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:55,560
Speaker 2: And I think you mentioned the scripted plays. Well, it's

144
00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:57,719
Speaker 2: not only the scripted plays in this situation. He's gonna

145
00:05:57,760 --> 00:05:59,520
Speaker 2: he's gonna have a whole off season, a whole year

146
00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,040
Speaker 2: to kind of whole off season prepare for this one game,

147
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:02,640
Speaker 2: this week one.

148
00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:04,480
Speaker 3: So I think this is where the Bears will be

149
00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:05,080
Speaker 3: at their best.

150
00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,320
Speaker 2: I do agree maybe twelve and four isn't quite in

151
00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,960
Speaker 2: the cards, but I do think that they come out

152
00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,320
Speaker 2: strong in this game. And like, listen, Matt, you know,

153
00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,480
Speaker 2: mattl Floor in his first head coaching job.

154
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,440
Speaker 3: He's supposed to be an offensive guy, a McVeigh guy.

155
00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:19,440
Speaker 3: With Tennessee.

156
00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,640
Speaker 2: Last year, their offense actually got worse. You know, their

157
00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:24,480
Speaker 2: DVOA declined last season. The Packers were seventh in offense.

158
00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,080
Speaker 2: Offense is not the issue for them. But I don't

159
00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,400
Speaker 2: know about Mike Petting and how well his defense is

160
00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,600
Speaker 2: going to kind of gel in Week one. I mean,

161
00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,359
Speaker 2: I still think that yes, Amos is a big addition,

162
00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:37,920
Speaker 2: but these cornerbacks still some of the greenest in the

163
00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:39,719
Speaker 2: league in terms of if you even look at their

164
00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,920
Speaker 2: route yards per route run numbers in the PFF matchup charts,

165
00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:45,680
Speaker 2: they're both outside the top eighty in terms of the

166
00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:48,320
Speaker 2: ninety six cornerbacks. So I think it's gonna be tough,

167
00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,880
Speaker 2: and with time to prepare, I trust this Bears team

168
00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:51,840
Speaker 2: at home.

169
00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:53,360
Speaker 1: I see we were coming from. I mean, we're gonna

170
00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:54,719
Speaker 1: find out over the first couple of weeks.

171
00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,440
Speaker 4: But I think just think the Packers, like, look, they're

172
00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,279
Speaker 4: two corners who were rookies last year. Then you had

173
00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,200
Speaker 4: Kevin king Is. This is in the second year last year,

174
00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:03,400
Speaker 4: and he's been hurt for the past two years. These

175
00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,960
Speaker 4: young corners in the NFL, which is a nightmare when

176
00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:11,600
Speaker 4: you have horrific safeties and sixty five safeties that got

177
00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,520
Speaker 4: at least three hundred snaps. The Packers' safeties last year

178
00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:19,040
Speaker 4: were ranked sixty fifth and sixty second in coverage. Traymont

179
00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:23,240
Speaker 4: Williams he allowed a quarterback rating of one hundred and

180
00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,720
Speaker 4: fifty last year, and he had the most snaps on

181
00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 4: their team. I think the next highest the next verse

182
00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,160
Speaker 4: is like one hundred and twenty seven or some that's staggering,

183
00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:33,040
Speaker 4: and you you know the safety position is so important

184
00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,240
Speaker 4: in any defense, but especially Pattens. Putting Amos back there

185
00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,400
Speaker 4: is such an enormous upgrade, and then you have Savage

186
00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,720
Speaker 4: who can play his robber position. But they also added

187
00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,040
Speaker 4: two good edge rushers in the two Smiths, Zadarian and Preston.

188
00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:49,960
Speaker 4: Edge rushing pressure that helps your secondary as well. So

189
00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,920
Speaker 4: with the safeties, the defensive pressure, that's going to help

190
00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,240
Speaker 4: these corners, which got a lot of experience. It wasn't

191
00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,920
Speaker 4: great last year. The safeties were churches. The corners weren't great,

192
00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:02,080
Speaker 4: but they were rookies playing corner. From a futureist perspective,

193
00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,360
Speaker 4: as of right now, it's my only Super Bowl future

194
00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:06,280
Speaker 4: because I don't want any part of the win total.

195
00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:08,240
Speaker 4: Their schedule is really hard and they have this new

196
00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,120
Speaker 4: offensive scheme, but the upside is high. But if it

197
00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,920
Speaker 4: doesn't work early, they could be two and six, and

198
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:16,760
Speaker 4: you know, because of their schedule, it's really difficult on

199
00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,040
Speaker 4: the front end. But if they do and it clicks,

200
00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:20,520
Speaker 4: I think they get off to a hot start. The

201
00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:22,520
Speaker 4: back end of their schedule is easy, and then you

202
00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,480
Speaker 4: get Rogers into the playoffs. I'm buying the Packers selling

203
00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,000
Speaker 4: the Bears. So we'll find out here tomorrow night. Which

204
00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:29,880
Speaker 4: one of us is right now? That doesn't mean we're

205
00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:31,800
Speaker 4: right right away. I guess we will probably know about

206
00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:32,160
Speaker 4: a month in.

207
00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:34,760
Speaker 2: This is a good time to get the coaches pep

208
00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:37,560
Speaker 2: talk segmenting because I think Aaron Rodgers and matter fact,

209
00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,240
Speaker 2: I think that Green Bay defense Actually, I think those

210
00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:44,880
Speaker 2: guys are going to need the pep talk for this week, right.

211
00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:45,840
Speaker 3: Everybody in the NFL.

212
00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,360
Speaker 1: I have a dream of winning a super Bowl. I'm

213
00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:51,679
Speaker 1: really not into dreams, Okay, I'm into nightmares. We're not

214
00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,520
Speaker 1: trying to go to the Gator Bowl. We're trying to

215
00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:54,319
Speaker 1: go to the super Bowl.

216
00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,120
Speaker 3: And to do that you got to really try to

217
00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:57,120
Speaker 3: end somebody's dream.

218
00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:57,800
Speaker 1: So get into that.

219
00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:03,120
Speaker 2: Okay, let's move on to the Sunday six Pack. This

220
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:07,360
Speaker 2: will be a weekly segment where Stuck and myself draft

221
00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,080
Speaker 2: our three favorite sides.

222
00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:11,640
Speaker 3: We'll have six picks in total.

223
00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,800
Speaker 2: Essentially the three sides were most confident in each but

224
00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 2: the one catches.

225
00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,760
Speaker 3: We cannot draft the same side, so if.

226
00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,080
Speaker 2: Stucky takes a pick that I like, I have to

227
00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,240
Speaker 2: find my fourth best pick or something like that.

228
00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:24,679
Speaker 3: So should be interesting.

229
00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:26,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, and a couple things to add there. We're going

230
00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:28,680
Speaker 4: to do a season on contest. Well, we'll keep track.

231
00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,160
Speaker 4: We'll do it for a steak dinner up in New York,

232
00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,960
Speaker 4: where your top pick is worth two points, and then

233
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,000
Speaker 4: your other two picks are worth one point. And then

234
00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:38,280
Speaker 4: we'll also give our favorite total after this segment, and

235
00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:39,680
Speaker 4: that'll be worth one points. You can get a max

236
00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,400
Speaker 4: of five points per week. Lat them up and see

237
00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:44,160
Speaker 4: who wins. And then you know, I'll start this week

238
00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:47,599
Speaker 4: and then get a little competitive juices flowing in the podcast.

239
00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,840
Speaker 3: Let's jump right in, Stucky, who is your number one pick?

240
00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,840
Speaker 1: Look, my first pick, my first debt of the NFL

241
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:58,040
Speaker 1: season is on Jacksonville, the Jaguars and Blake Board.

242
00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,080
Speaker 4: Oh wait, no, Blake Portals is no longer that we

243
00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,800
Speaker 4: want to talk about. One of the biggest upgrades at

244
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,640
Speaker 4: the quarterback position in the NFL in the off season

245
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,720
Speaker 4: was going from Blake Portals to anybody.

246
00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:10,600
Speaker 3: You've just been bortaled.

247
00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:12,760
Speaker 4: They went to Nick Foles. But I don't care who

248
00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,120
Speaker 4: they went to. There's no longer one of the biggest

249
00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,679
Speaker 4: liabilities in the NFL under center for Jacksonville.

250
00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:20,840
Speaker 1: Look, I mean, look at this Chiefs game last year.

251
00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,440
Speaker 4: Now you want to talk about overreactions from one year

252
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:27,160
Speaker 4: to the other and regression. These teams played in Arrowhead

253
00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,240
Speaker 4: last year when the Kansas City was five to zero.

254
00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,720
Speaker 4: Kansas City at home was a three point favorite at home.

255
00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:35,560
Speaker 4: They are now a three and a half point favorite

256
00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:38,000
Speaker 4: in Jacksonville, and I have Kansas City's own field worth

257
00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,840
Speaker 4: more than three points. So if nothing changed from then,

258
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,560
Speaker 4: you know, Jacksonville should be about a four point favorite here.

259
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:44,120
Speaker 1: Now.

260
00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:46,319
Speaker 4: Obviously the Chiefs ended up being better than we thought,

261
00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:51,680
Speaker 4: Jacksonville was worse. But I think Jacksonville got significantly better

262
00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,480
Speaker 4: in the offseason. But I think that they know shored

263
00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:56,520
Speaker 4: up some of their play in the trenches. I think

264
00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:58,440
Speaker 4: they'll be stronger. They're they're just going to be healthier.

265
00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,440
Speaker 4: I mean, they were tormented injuries last year. I just

266
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:04,600
Speaker 4: think that it's an overreaction to the line. Now, look,

267
00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,000
Speaker 4: if you look at the Jaguars last year, yes they

268
00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:08,679
Speaker 4: were bad, but a lot of it was bortals. They

269
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,240
Speaker 4: were two and six in games decided by six points

270
00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,680
Speaker 4: or less, three losses by three points.

271
00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:15,880
Speaker 1: I hate to do this because of you know all

272
00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:16,520
Speaker 1: the trends.

273
00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:18,680
Speaker 4: Red is seventeen and three after a by Whenever you

274
00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:20,800
Speaker 4: give them a lot of time to prepare. They've never

275
00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,319
Speaker 4: lost a road opener with the Chiefs and Red I

276
00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,640
Speaker 4: think three of the last three have been against playoff teams.

277
00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,920
Speaker 1: But just this line I think is crazy. I did

278
00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,439
Speaker 1: the Chiefs defense really improved losing Houston and Ford. A

279
00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,600
Speaker 1: lot of people are saying it improved. I don't necessarily

280
00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:33,880
Speaker 1: see it.

281
00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:35,440
Speaker 4: I think still think it's a You know, there are

282
00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,800
Speaker 4: a lot of holes, especially off the middle. I think

283
00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,480
Speaker 4: you can run on them. The Jaguars defense is healthy

284
00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,760
Speaker 4: now and they have the corners. They have Boy who

285
00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:44,560
Speaker 4: I think is going to be a lot healthier. They

286
00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,640
Speaker 4: have one of the only corners in the NFL who

287
00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:48,520
Speaker 4: can stick with Tyreek Kill. Now they're going to play

288
00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,640
Speaker 4: a lot of Cover three, Cover four, but Jalen Ramsey

289
00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:53,080
Speaker 4: can stick them. Last year, I think he'll had two

290
00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,240
Speaker 4: catchers for twenty yards. Now over the middle and safety

291
00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,440
Speaker 4: there is some questions and Kelsey could go nuts hundred

292
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,280
Speaker 4: yards in a touch I think last year. But last

293
00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,199
Speaker 4: year the game looked like a blowout. But I think

294
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,480
Speaker 4: Bortals turned it over four times. There was a pick six,

295
00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:07,959
Speaker 4: get another fumble. I think there was a pickoff a helmet.

296
00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,120
Speaker 4: I think the Jaguars gonna be significantly improved as a

297
00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:13,760
Speaker 4: huge home opener. I'm on the Jags here. Anything over

298
00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:15,920
Speaker 4: a field goal, I think they went out right. The

299
00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:17,920
Speaker 4: only thing I hate is they're starting to get trendy,

300
00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:19,800
Speaker 4: and I just don't want anyone else to say they

301
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:20,640
Speaker 4: like the Jags now.

302
00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:22,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I hear you.

303
00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:23,720
Speaker 2: I think a lot of the value has kind of

304
00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:24,880
Speaker 2: been bet out of this line.

305
00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:26,600
Speaker 3: In my opinion, it's up to it's up to.

306
00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:28,200
Speaker 2: Looks like it's a three and a half now, but

307
00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:30,360
Speaker 2: you could have if you got it earlier in the offseason,

308
00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:32,360
Speaker 2: you could have got it at four or something like that.

309
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,080
Speaker 2: So De Filippo, the OC two will be a much

310
00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:36,920
Speaker 2: more balance. You know, this is a team that they

311
00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,160
Speaker 2: had their whole mission with high blay Bortles try to

312
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:40,880
Speaker 2: run the ball, and that really hurt for Nett even

313
00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:41,760
Speaker 2: when he was healthy.

314
00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:42,960
Speaker 3: He is healthy now.

315
00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,920
Speaker 2: Not my style to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs, though,

316
00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:47,600
Speaker 2: we'll see how it goes before.

317
00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:48,400
Speaker 1: You just give your other pick.

318
00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,200
Speaker 4: One thing that I'll say is getting to the parody

319
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:52,560
Speaker 4: and how close teams are. The Jags last year recovered

320
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,199
Speaker 4: thirty nine percent of their fumbles the year before, when

321
00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,920
Speaker 4: they went the NSC Championship game, they recovered almost sixty percent.

322
00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,480
Speaker 4: I gave you the record in one possession games even

323
00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,880
Speaker 4: with Bortles. They were in a lot of games, and

324
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:05,559
Speaker 4: you get rid of Bortles, and I think things are

325
00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:06,719
Speaker 4: going to go better for him this year.

326
00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,400
Speaker 1: Big Dick Nick Ryan with him in Week one. I mean, hey, I'll.

327
00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:11,960
Speaker 3: Just say this. They put up thirty one points on

328
00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:12,840
Speaker 3: that Jags defense.

329
00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:14,160
Speaker 2: I don't know if they put up any West and

330
00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:15,920
Speaker 2: I don't know if the Jaguars can score that much

331
00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:17,000
Speaker 2: right off the bat.

332
00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:18,439
Speaker 3: So we will see.

333
00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,880
Speaker 2: Speaking of a team that you know quarterback, just complete

334
00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,040
Speaker 2: one pint eighty, I'm going with the Arizona Cardinals plus

335
00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,640
Speaker 2: two point five at home against the Detroit Lions. Listen,

336
00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:33,600
Speaker 2: last season, the Cardinals quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen,

337
00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,920
Speaker 2: who of course is now in Miami, they combined for

338
00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:40,040
Speaker 2: a bottom five passer rating over the past half decade,

339
00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:41,400
Speaker 2: so one of the five worst.

340
00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:42,280
Speaker 1: It was horrible.

341
00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,160
Speaker 2: They could not score. It made everything about the team

342
00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:47,559
Speaker 2: look even worse. It magnified all of their issues on

343
00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:49,520
Speaker 2: the old line on defense and whatnot.

344
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,680
Speaker 3: Now, Listen, I don't think this is this team.

345
00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,920
Speaker 2: Is going to be magically like a playoff team right

346
00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,880
Speaker 2: off the bat. But at home against the Detroit Lions,

347
00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,679
Speaker 2: I think that they can this game close and went

348
00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,440
Speaker 2: out right because the Lions are kind of, I think,

349
00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,880
Speaker 2: in some ways moving backwards in terms of their philosophy.

350
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,240
Speaker 2: They you know, they hired Darryl Bevel. They want to

351
00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:10,520
Speaker 2: run the ball more, they want.

352
00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,040
Speaker 3: To hide their defense, they want to do all these things.

353
00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:13,280
Speaker 3: They want to slow the game down.

354
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:15,360
Speaker 2: They want to do all these things that you know

355
00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,839
Speaker 2: dudes from the nineteen seventies that that played in the

356
00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:22,280
Speaker 2: NFL then and coach then that that won then and I.

357
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,080
Speaker 3: Don't know no, but see but they have Lamar Jackson.

358
00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,200
Speaker 2: That's a total Like they built their offense around Lamar

359
00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,480
Speaker 2: Jackson when it came to that, they are they understood

360
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 2: how to be forward thicket and they actually planned that

361
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,640
Speaker 2: in the offseason. You know what they would do if

362
00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:36,720
Speaker 2: they had to switch. So like they're forward thinking team.

363
00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,240
Speaker 2: That's just that just kind of adapted to what they had,

364
00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,960
Speaker 2: what their cards were dealt. Whereas the Lions, we you know,

365
00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,280
Speaker 2: we saw Matt Patricia. The team kind of came out

366
00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,680
Speaker 2: slow out of the gate last year, don't I don't

367
00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,880
Speaker 2: know how much the players truly buy in. I just

368
00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,960
Speaker 2: don't know that this is actually a better team than

369
00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,520
Speaker 2: Arizona on a neutral field and Arizona being at home

370
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,320
Speaker 2: just in cris Wan that way, with the the number

371
00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 2: one thing that's going to predict and it's going to

372
00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:02,080
Speaker 2: be predictive of when besides turnovers, but you can't predict

373
00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:05,720
Speaker 2: in the NFL. They're really difficult to predict is quarterback play.

374
00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,600
Speaker 2: An efficient quarterback playing. At this point, I think Kyler

375
00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:11,200
Speaker 2: Murray is going to be better and this offense is

376
00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,640
Speaker 2: going to be better than this Lion's offense. And I

377
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:15,080
Speaker 2: think the defense is going to be better. You know,

378
00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 2: I think, I mean, I think they can outscore the

379
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,120
Speaker 2: Lion defense. Like I think both of these defenses are bad.

380
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:20,640
Speaker 2: I think the Lions know how to stop the run,

381
00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:22,680
Speaker 2: but the Cardinals they're gonna spread them out.

382
00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:23,920
Speaker 3: They're going to go four wide.

383
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:25,840
Speaker 2: That Lion run defense is not going to come into

384
00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:27,560
Speaker 2: play enough on What is going to happen is the

385
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:29,440
Speaker 2: same defense that Matt Patricia said, Hey, we got to

386
00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:32,560
Speaker 2: hide these guys anyway that past defense, they're gonna get exposed.

387
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:34,960
Speaker 3: We haven't seen anything from the Cardinals in the preseason.

388
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,240
Speaker 2: So I think that the Lion is kind of set

389
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,280
Speaker 2: in such a way where it's kind of like, hey,

390
00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,400
Speaker 2: we don't know much about this car, this Cardinal team.

391
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:43,440
Speaker 2: We're kind of, you know, putting Kyler Murray as like

392
00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,000
Speaker 2: the default rookie quarterback. We're not really giving him credit

393
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,520
Speaker 2: for being as good as he is. And if you

394
00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,440
Speaker 2: look back at like if you look at some more

395
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,920
Speaker 2: advanced models that predict NFL success, Kyler Murray essentially right

396
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,760
Speaker 2: up there with Russell Wilson ninety eighth percentile. So I

397
00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,600
Speaker 2: think this team is being undervalue on the market. I

398
00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,080
Speaker 2: still think their flaws are probably what everyone thinks they're

399
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,120
Speaker 2: you know, their defenses is not going to be good,

400
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:05,520
Speaker 2: especially without Patrick Peterson.

401
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 3: However, against the.

402
00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:09,360
Speaker 2: Team that wants to slow it down, that wants to

403
00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:11,800
Speaker 2: run the ball, they're not going to know what hit him.

404
00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,160
Speaker 2: So I love the Cardinals at home. I think this

405
00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,640
Speaker 2: might be the best value you get on the Cardinals

406
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:17,040
Speaker 2: all year.

407
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:17,440
Speaker 1: Yeah.

408
00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,600
Speaker 4: I mean, look, I think your most intelligent point there

409
00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:22,480
Speaker 4: among many, not saying you didn't have.

410
00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:25,800
Speaker 1: Many that came off kind of like a backhanded covement.

411
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:28,720
Speaker 1: I just think the point that stuck out was the

412
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 1: first game.

413
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,280
Speaker 4: So what is Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray are going

414
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,000
Speaker 4: to show there's really no tape.

415
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:35,560
Speaker 1: They can come out.

416
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:37,840
Speaker 4: They can have all their added wrinkles now in four

417
00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 4: to five weeks, you know, teams are going to have

418
00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:41,120
Speaker 4: that on them. You know, I just want no part

419
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:42,440
Speaker 4: of this game. But I don't want to bet the

420
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,920
Speaker 4: Lions as roadchhawk. I just don't know who's blocking for

421
00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:47,880
Speaker 4: the Cardinals. I don't know who's going to defend in

422
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,480
Speaker 4: their secondary. I also don't know what they're going to run.

423
00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,240
Speaker 4: I've never been been a big Cliff Kingsbury guy, but

424
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,160
Speaker 4: if he has you know, these innovative offenses and then

425
00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 4: he has someone else making the defensive decisions, it could work.

426
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,000
Speaker 4: This is more of a learned something you know about

427
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,400
Speaker 4: both teams game for me. But that is the key

428
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,080
Speaker 4: right there. You said home opener and they have the

429
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,600
Speaker 4: advantage of the unknown. You put a gun to my

430
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:12,960
Speaker 4: head and make me bet this game. I'd side with

431
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:14,040
Speaker 4: you and go with the Cardinals.

432
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:14,840
Speaker 3: There you go.

433
00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:18,440
Speaker 1: So for my second pick, this was tough.

434
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,600
Speaker 4: And you know Week one is all about you know,

435
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,920
Speaker 4: NFL people have been following on Twitter and covers forever.

436
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,440
Speaker 1: I'm always about buying low, selling high.

437
00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:28,760
Speaker 4: You know, there's such overreactions the NFL market and so

438
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:30,240
Speaker 4: much money, and everyone bets the NFL.

439
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,240
Speaker 1: Your your mailman, he bets the NFL.

440
00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,840
Speaker 4: Now, this is a game that was very difficult for

441
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:36,560
Speaker 4: me to bet because I'm a Ravens fan.

442
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 1: But money first. For my second pick, I'm going with

443
00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:39,440
Speaker 1: the Steelers.

444
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,360
Speaker 4: You know, plus five and a half, plus six, preferably

445
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,240
Speaker 4: if you can get it week one against the Patriots. Now,

446
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 4: there are a lot of misconceptions out there in the NFL,

447
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 4: and one of them is about the Steelers and their defense.

448
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 1: I used to lead the charge of this. I used

449
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,520
Speaker 1: to say, the Steelers cannot beat the Patriots. They never will.

450
00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,919
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter because they used to run a zone

451
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,400
Speaker 4: predominant and you cannot run a zone against Tom Brady.

452
00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:06,240
Speaker 4: It is the dumbest thing you can do because they'll

453
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:07,679
Speaker 4: just pick you off with short passes.

454
00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 1: Read it.

455
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,120
Speaker 4: They'll find the holes. You need corners, and you need

456
00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,240
Speaker 4: to press up and then you need to get pressure. Look,

457
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 4: Mike Tomlin comes from the Tampa two tree, and this

458
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 4: was his influence. And once Dick Lebau left, this is

459
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,200
Speaker 4: what he wanted to do, and the Steelers were a

460
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:24,400
Speaker 4: zone defense. Well last year they finally changed. I think

461
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 4: it was smart and I think their second new secondary

462
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:27,800
Speaker 4: coach last year, Tom Bradley, had a lot to do

463
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,920
Speaker 4: with this. But they were the third highest man team

464
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,560
Speaker 4: in the NFL, which is shocking. Changed all the trends

465
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:34,439
Speaker 4: from the years before. And you know, I think the

466
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,639
Speaker 4: Patriots number one, Broncos were number two something like that.

467
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,680
Speaker 4: The Patrio's number one with like fifty eight percent. Colts

468
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 4: were the lowest of twenty three percent. We'll touch with

469
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,520
Speaker 4: them later. So the Steeers play man now, Brady, if

470
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:46,280
Speaker 4: you look at brady stats, you don't want any part

471
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 4: of this bet against the Steelers. Right He's You'll see

472
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,920
Speaker 4: people say Tom Brady versus Mike Tomlins defenses. Since he started,

473
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 4: Brady's seven to two, two hundred and thirty two for

474
00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,080
Speaker 4: three eighteen, it's a seventy three percent completion rate, twenty

475
00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,640
Speaker 4: eight hundred yards, twenty four touchdowns, two picks at home.

476
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:01,399
Speaker 1: He's five and oh.

477
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,040
Speaker 4: But last year, you know when they finally started playing

478
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,560
Speaker 4: more man two years ago, remember that was the Jesse

479
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 4: James game. Pitch should have won last year, pit won

480
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,959
Speaker 4: seventeen to ten. That was their Manda Man year and

481
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:14,359
Speaker 4: Brady threw one touchdown one pick. Jalen Samuels ran wild.

482
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 4: This Patriots team, they're hurt and they I mean they

483
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:18,720
Speaker 4: lost their center. They have no tight end. I don't

484
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 4: know who their tight end is. I'm doing this NFL poker.

485
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 4: I've been preparing NFL and reading about NFL just every

486
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,440
Speaker 4: minute in college football for the last two three weeks.

487
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think it's a guy that the Falcons.

488
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 2: Tra I don't I don't think Eric Salbert made the team.

489
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 2: I think it's Matt Lacosse if he's healthy. If not,

490
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 2: Ryan Izzo. And then they have Lance Kendricks on the

491
00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 2: roster suspended, as well as Ben Watson.

492
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,159
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that was a big weak spot of the

493
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 4: Steelers lasture, the tight end. So not having Gronk for

494
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 4: this game in particular, with you know, Kendricks and Watson suspended.

495
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 1: It's a big deal.

496
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 4: Steeers excellent offensive line, excellent defensive line. I mean, they

497
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,919
Speaker 4: have the most sacks NFL over the last two years.

498
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 4: They can pressure Brady this.

499
00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 1: You know, this offensive line, I think it still has

500
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,440
Speaker 1: to come together, still some strong points. It'll still be

501
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,680
Speaker 1: a very strong offense line and Brady gets rid of

502
00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:04,160
Speaker 1: the ball quick.

503
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,880
Speaker 4: But now they can play more man. They have man corners.

504
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 4: And this is just a classic Tomlin spot. And I'm

505
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 4: not a big trends player, but look Tomlin twenty two

506
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 4: and thirteen against the spread in his career as a

507
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 4: road underdog. And he's fourteen and five as against the

508
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,240
Speaker 4: spread as a road underdog versus teams that are over

509
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 4: five hundred, good teams, which the Patriots are. That's the

510
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 4: most profitable out of one hundred and fifteen coaches since

511
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 4: two thousand and three. In those games where he's fourteen

512
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 4: to five against the spread, he's thirteen and six on

513
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 4: the money line, about seventy two percent ROLI. On the

514
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 4: flip side, Tomlin is the worst coach by far in

515
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,439
Speaker 4: the NFL as a road favorite. He's thirteen and twenty

516
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 4: seven against the spread. He's only twenty three and eighteen

517
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 4: straight up as a favorite against teams that are under

518
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 4: five hundred. This is a classic Tomlin spot. He's not

519
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 4: the best x's and o's guy, but he is. He

520
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 4: will fire that locker room up. We're going to war

521
00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 4: mentality and that team, I think initially until things fall apart,

522
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 4: if they do, they should be I think more united

523
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 4: as a team. And I think the Steelers hang throughout,

524
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 4: and the defensive scheme change has a lot to do

525
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 4: with it.

526
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 1: I'd say Patriots by three.

527
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 3: I'm with you.

528
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,920
Speaker 2: I think if I had to bet this game, I'm

529
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 2: probably going with the under, though, like like over any

530
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,439
Speaker 2: of the sides, just because I think he made some

531
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,919
Speaker 2: great points about the Steelers defense. I think, you know,

532
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 2: with Brady having to throw against man coverage, it's not

533
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 2: going to be quite as easy to Obviously, you know,

534
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 2: the Patriots tend to come out run the ball a

535
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:34,880
Speaker 2: little bit more at home. But but the reason I'm

536
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 2: a little weary is I think, you know, there are

537
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 2: always a team that kind of defies whatever whatever you

538
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,159
Speaker 2: think you know about the Patriots, especially when they're in Foxborough,

539
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 2: they just kind of defy that. If you go back

540
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,360
Speaker 2: to when Brady came back from from the injury, this

541
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 2: is the best record at home against the spread of

542
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 2: any team. So I do think that this will be

543
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,360
Speaker 2: a close game. I think it will be a low

544
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 2: scoring game, but you know, the Patriots win by three

545
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 2: or five or seven. I'm not as confident, but I

546
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:01,919
Speaker 2: do think it will go under. I have a lot

547
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 2: of respect for their defense and what they did scheme

548
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: wise against top receivers, So I don't think Juju will

549
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 2: get off on this game. And you know they held

550
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:12,120
Speaker 2: both Juju and ab under fifty yards oh man.

551
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 3: Oh yeah in the scheme.

552
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 2: So I think that it kind of leads me to, like,

553
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,159
Speaker 2: I get while you're picking the dog here. You know

554
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 2: it's a five point five spread, probably be a closer

555
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 2: to contested game that Pittsburgh won last season. Yeah, I'd

556
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: probably go with the under fifty in this game. Let's

557
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,120
Speaker 2: move it along here. My next pick, I am going

558
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,360
Speaker 2: with the Cleveland Browns minus five point five at home

559
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:33,479
Speaker 2: against the Tennessee Titans.

560
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 3: Down. This is not the style of pick that I

561
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 3: usually like here.

562
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 2: I usually like to go with underdogs, but again, the

563
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,159
Speaker 2: most predictive thing for winning in the NFL is going

564
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:47,160
Speaker 2: to come down a quarterback efficiency. This is another team

565
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 2: in the Cleveland Browns, and I think quarterback efficiency wise

566
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 2: because we know that is what it's going to go

567
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,880
Speaker 2: into Vegas models and the way they kind of set

568
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 2: the spread.

569
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 3: The Browns are another one of these teams.

570
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 2: That's probably going to be the most undervalued here in

571
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: Week one because Baker Mayfield over the second half of

572
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 2: the season once Freddie Kitchens took over, this guy was

573
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 2: a tenth of a yard per attempt behind Patrick Mahomes

574
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 2: over that span for the league lead in yards per attempt.

575
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 2: Over his last seven games, he took only four sacks,

576
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 2: and sack rate is a quarterback trade. It's a lot

577
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 2: of people think it's all offensive line.

578
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 3: Now.

579
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 2: An offensive line gives up can give up pressure, but

580
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 2: it's how a quarterback reacts to pressure. And quarterbacks can

581
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 2: also prevent pressure by just getting rid of the ball quick.

582
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 2: So Baker Mayfield four sacks over his last seven games.

583
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,400
Speaker 3: Spread the ball around. Everyone was efficient.

584
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 2: I mean Jarvis Landry went from under six yards to

585
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 2: target to over eight. He targeted ten percent less. He

586
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 2: spreads it around to Peerman and Calaway and all these guys, Higgins,

587
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,120
Speaker 2: They're all over nine yards of target. Now he's got

588
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 2: better weapons with Baker Mayfields, with the Odell Beckham. Jarvis

589
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 2: Landry is now the number two, which I think suits

590
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 2: him better. It's going to be difficult to match up

591
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 2: to Nadjoku. Higgins has showed really good chemistry with Mayfield

592
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,679
Speaker 2: dating back to last season, and this tight defense. I

593
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 2: think they are a good defense, but they're better suited

594
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,199
Speaker 2: to play against teams without this many weapons because you

595
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: know they're gonna have their cornerbacks out there. They have

596
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 2: Dori Jackson. You know, these guys can cover Logan Ryan.

597
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 2: But those guys, they were targeted at the highest rate

598
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 2: schedule adjusted in the league last season. We're their cornerbacks

599
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,360
Speaker 2: and Cleveland has the receivers that can be though. And

600
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 2: I don't think on the other side of the ball

601
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 2: that the Tennessee Titans has the offense to keep up

602
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 2: with the Cleveland Browns if they even you know, get

603
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 2: down by seven. Like you know, Cleveland has great players

604
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 2: at key positions on defense, you know, pass rusher Miles Garrett,

605
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 2: you got cornerback play in Denzel Ward and whatnot. So

606
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 2: this Cleveland team, I think, and let's not forget they

607
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: played against one of the fourth toughest schedule in the

608
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 2: league last season, so you didn't quite see you know,

609
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 2: mayfield efficiency paying off in terms of the win loss

610
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 2: record as much as you might have otherwise. But I

611
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 2: think this team is a lot better than Tennessee. I

612
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 2: think this is more like a team that's about seven

613
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 2: better than Tennessee. So I want to get this line

614
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 2: minus five to five before it even hits that key

615
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 2: number of six.

616
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:05,360
Speaker 1: Yeah.

617
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 4: I don't have a strong I've been drinking at this

618
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,680
Speaker 4: game trying to figure it out. I mean, the only

619
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 4: thing that I come up with is I have some

620
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 4: friends that are Browns fans. I'm a Ravens fans. I've

621
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,199
Speaker 4: seen their futility for years and years and years, and

622
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 4: I think they're the most talented roster in our division

623
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 4: and the rightful favorite. But everything I know about the

624
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 4: Browns is something's gonna go wrong. And the thing I

625
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 4: keep coming back for I don't it's not worth noting

626
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 4: to make a debt one way the other in this

627
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 4: game is the special team for the Browns. They got

628
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 4: a rookie punter and or rookie kicker. It's just something

629
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 4: to keep in mind to see what happens. That's something

630
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 4: to note. I want to see other offensive line plays.

631
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 4: I'll think the Titans. If it gets a seven, I'll

632
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 4: tell you that, Yeah, that's.

633
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 3: That's a good call.

634
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 2: I don't think it matters in this but I think

635
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:44,880
Speaker 2: the Browns are so much better, and I think people

636
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 2: are thinking about that futility, which is why the line

637
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 2: is kind of stuck where it was, because I mean,

638
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 2: this is all narrative based, not like no one's modeling.

639
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,400
Speaker 3: Past futility, just to be clear, but.

640
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 2: Like everyone thinks they're gonna take Darnold or Allen or Bought. Like,

641
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: they take the right quarterback, they fire, they finally fired

642
00:25:59,040 --> 00:25:59,400
Speaker 2: their coach.

643
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 3: They put thequarterback in. He's amazing.

644
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 2: Then they look into the Giants trading Odell but like

645
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 2: everything's actually been going right for them lately, so.

646
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 4: Or it's just a big trick. Football gods have more

647
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 4: evil and they're just setting it up for Yeah.

648
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 2: No, Like, don't get me wrong, I have I have

649
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 2: mistakenly bet against the Titans at time, so like I'm

650
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 2: prepared for this pick to lose. But at the same time,

651
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 2: the public's not really you know, running out to bet

652
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 2: this game, so the line's not really like shifting too much.

653
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 2: But I think you're going to see just an offense

654
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 2: that Tennessee is gonna have a lot of trouble.

655
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 4: If you have the Titans of this game, you need

656
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 4: them the ugly up control the clock. They they're kicker,

657
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 4: by the way, just got put on the ir But

658
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 4: the Titans got to ugly this game up because they're

659
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 4: not going.

660
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: To hit too many explosive plays in that offense.

661
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 4: And the Browns have potential for explosive plays all over

662
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 4: the place where they could be down by three at

663
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 4: their own thirty and all of a sudden it's boom

664
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 4: seventy to beck them for a touchdown, where the Titans

665
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 4: really don't have that ability at all.

666
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 2: I don't think this one's going to be close, but yeah,

667
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: give us the next pick secular.

668
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 4: All right, Yeah, for my last pick, I'm going with. Look,

669
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 4: I picked the Jags, and look, I'm afraid and I'm

670
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 4: petrified of Mahomes obviously, and then I picked the Steelers

671
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 4: going against Brady and Fox bars. Let's make it a

672
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 4: TRIFECTAM pick the Bills and Josh Allen on the road.

673
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 1: You mentioned pressure.

674
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 4: By the way, if you look at Sam Darnald last year,

675
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,919
Speaker 4: you have thirty nine quarterback grading under pressure.

676
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 1: The only one worse was Josh Frozen.

677
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 4: Josh Allen was actually third worst, but he was at

678
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 4: forty seven point four. Still absolutely horrendous, but not as

679
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 4: bad as Darnald. And what I think this comes down

680
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 4: to is the Jets have they really suspect offensive line

681
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 4: and they don't have any chemistry. And the Bills front

682
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 4: seven is good and I know that. You know they

683
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 4: have Left Bell and a bunch of backs. Now, Bill's

684
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 4: are defensive line number one stuff for eight last year.

685
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 4: Bill's also upgraded at receiver from last year. There's still

686
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 4: some questions at corner for the Jets. I think Johnson

687
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 4: is healthy to tremain. Johnson is healthy to play, but

688
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,719
Speaker 4: there's a couple other factors. The Jets are banged up.

689
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:57,959
Speaker 4: I mean, Robbie Anderson's supposed to play, but he's banged up,

690
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 4: probably you know, the calf, probably not healthy. There's some suspensions.

691
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 4: You know, Chris Herndon's not playing. You know, they lost

692
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 4: Avery will Williamson for the season. Their linebackers are a mess.

693
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 4: I just think the Bills are more solid. And the

694
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 4: wild card here is the special teams. Last year, and

695
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 4: and you might say what that would favor the Jets,

696
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 4: but not so fast as the corso would say. The

697
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 4: Jets were the number one special teams un in the

698
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 4: NFL last year. The Bills were the worst I think

699
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 4: the Bills will be much better than special teams this year.

700
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 4: Number one the Jets special teams are all Pro returner

701
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 4: last year was Andre Roberts. Well, now he's a Bill,

702
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:32,479
Speaker 4: so he's gonna be a returning for them. You know,

703
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 4: they also had Jason Myers, who went seven of seven

704
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 4: and one of their wins last year and one of

705
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 4: their other wins over the Bills, Andre Roberts had like

706
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 4: a ninety yard return. Well, Roberts on the Bills, Jason

707
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 4: Myers is gone. Those are two Pro bowlers. They're out.

708
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 4: Now they're replacing them. Their new punt returner was gonna

709
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 4: be Greg Dortch.

710
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 2: The most electrifying player in college football.

711
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 1: Guess who Greg Torch. He's got torch wide open, torch

712
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: individual of Greg George. It's time to get torched with

713
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: Greg George.

714
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 4: And he didn't get He's on the practice squad house.

715
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 4: Braxton Barrios. They signed off waivers, but he's hurt. Now

716
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 4: the return game is gonna take a huge step back.

717
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 4: Their new kicker was just claimed off waivers. Who when

718
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 4: you get released by the Vikings, you're bad at kicker.

719
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 4: And now he's gonna be the Jets kicker. I mean,

720
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 4: it's it's just bade Sean Peak. He has recently caught

721
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 4: Eric Tomlinson, who picked up from the Giants. Those are

722
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 4: two of their best special teams contributors in like the

723
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 4: coverage units, So this unit's gonna be bad.

724
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 1: You know.

725
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 4: The Bills still have questions that punner major questions. But

726
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 4: Stephen Hauschka had a off year, but he had a

727
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 4: bunch of different holders. He was hurt towards the end

728
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 4: of the year. He'll be fine. Andre Roberts makes their

729
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 4: return units just exponentially better. So in a game that

730
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 4: should be tight and ugly, I think the Bills will

731
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 4: get more pressure.

732
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 1: On Donald when he's where he's horrible. I think that's

733
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: gonna be the difference and the Bill the Jets spot.

734
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 4: The Bills are fully healthy besides Andre Roberts and Cross

735
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 4: at tight end. The Jets are of suspensions injury, so

736
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 4: it's not they're not fielding a full team here. And

737
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 4: this what I think Mike decided to keep in mind

738
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: that special team's edge. So go with the Buffalo Bills

739
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 4: plus three in a game that probably should go under

740
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 4: as well.

741
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: I mean, I just got to congratulate you on naming

742
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 2: the most players for the reason you're betting a team

743
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 2: that probably no listener has ever heard of. I mean,

744
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 2: this was Sharon Peek, Andre Robert like that. Eric Tomlinson

745
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 2: like this was classic.

746
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 1: It's a giant man. You gotta you gotta get No

747
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: Eric Tomlinson.

748
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 3: Didn't even uh, and you didn't even name kare Vedvicks.

749
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 2: I mean you mentioned it, but you didn't even say

750
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: him by name, so that would have been another one

751
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: the kicker. Uh. Yeah, you know, this is kind of

752
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: a tough one for me personally because I don't I

753
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 2: really don't know what what's gonna happen in this game,

754
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 2: not like most Division games where you kind of have

755
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: a history to go off of. Adam Gase you know,

756
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 2: has played in this division some uh, but you know,

757
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 2: it's hard to get a feel. I do think that

758
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 2: the Jets I am more worried with with Anderson banged up,

759
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 2: and I will be monitoring his health because uh, Sam

760
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: Garner was one of.

761
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 3: The worst deep ball throwers in the league.

762
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 2: Awest struggled mightily uh when playing as an outside receiver,

763
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 2: which he'll have to do and have to you know,

764
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 2: make some catches if they're gonna move the ball and

765
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: if not her, yeah, right, So it's like this could

766
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 2: quickly devolve into like, uh, you know a lot of checkdowns.

767
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 2: And the Bills have you know, pretty good safeties back

768
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 2: there and Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer Poyer, so you

769
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 2: know they will kind of they could kind of scheme

770
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 2: to take things away underneath, and I don't know if

771
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 2: the Jets can beat them over the top. I think

772
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 2: there will be a wrinkle or two in there for

773
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 2: Madam Gase, Like I could see like a time Montgomery

774
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: sixty yard touchdown on like something scheme that they you'll

775
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 2: never see again because it's weak one.

776
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 3: But I have a lot of respect for Sean McDermott.

777
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 2: And just what he's done every single year both years

778
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 2: that he's been here with this Buffalo team. If I

779
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 2: did have to bet this game, I would be going

780
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: with the Buffalo Bills. For my last pick, I am

781
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: going to go with the Atlanta Falcons plus four at

782
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 2: the Minnesota Vikings. Now, this game is is one where

783
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 2: I just don't think that the I think that these

784
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 2: teams are more even than the line suggests. I think

785
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 2: that the numbers should really be plus three it's plus four,

786
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 2: So that's it pretty much comes down to being as

787
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 2: simple as that for me. A couple of changes I

788
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: think are going to help the Atlanta Falcons, one on

789
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 2: each side of the football. On offense, they are going

790
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 2: from Steve Starkejian who kind of fumbled around like they

791
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 2: had some good numbers that did the Falcons last year offensively,

792
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 2: but you know, they weren't a great team, and they

793
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 2: kind of struggled in key situations, you know, to kind

794
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 2: of put the ball in the end zone.

795
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 3: They were sloppy.

796
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 2: Just not what you'd expect for a team putting up

797
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 2: those kind of of numbers otherwise. So I think it's

798
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 2: going to help. Going back to Dirt Cutter, who has

799
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 2: familiarity with Matt Ryan, you know in the past. So

800
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 2: this is not like before when Matt Ryan kind of

801
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 2: struggled out of the gate a little bit kind of

802
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: you know with new offensive coordinators. Is a guy who's

803
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 2: worked with already for three years, had some of his

804
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 2: best years, you know, efficiency wise. You know, the NFL

805
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 2: wasn't throwing quite as much back then, but you know

806
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 2: was really good with Cutter gonna play more up tempo

807
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: where Matt Ryan has really excelled, and they haven't really

808
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 2: done as much as they as they needed to. Cutter

809
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 2: played about five percent more of his time both with

810
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: the Falcons and then the Bucks, then did Ryan with

811
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 2: since he left. So Ryan's efficiency jumps up in the

812
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 2: no huddle, I think you're going to see a lot

813
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 2: of that and only and also for some reason, they

814
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 2: abandoned the run when they were in close inside the

815
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 2: ten yard line. Their rate of running the ball on

816
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 2: first and second down dipped into the forties that was

817
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 2: previously in the fifties, and so it just put them

818
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 2: in tough situations and made them easier to defend at

819
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 2: times when the run actually, do you know, can be effective.

820
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 3: I think Minnesota's defense.

821
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 2: A little bit overrated by the public just compared to

822
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 2: you know, it did fall off a little bit.

823
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 3: E Xavier Roads was pretty poor.

824
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 2: The secondary just wasn't They weren't as good as they

825
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 2: had previously been. And then on the other side of

826
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 2: the ball, I think what's really going to help for

827
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: the Falcons is Dan Quinn taking over as defensive coordinator.

828
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 2: You know, the Falcons have a certain philosophy, you know,

829
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 2: they kind of bring it from Seattle They're going to

830
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 2: play a lot of Cover three that they can play man,

831
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: but they have more talent, Like their defense shouldn't be

832
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 2: as bad as it has been over these past few years,

833
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 2: considering the way you know that, the speed they have

834
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 2: at linebacker and whatnot. So I think dan Quinn taking

835
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 2: over those play calling duties is going to help. And

836
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 2: so I think this is a lot more of an

837
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 2: even team with the Vikings. And I'm getting that extra point,

838
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,320
Speaker 2: which I think is key, Like if the line is

839
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 2: just down to three, then I'm staying away, but above three, three,

840
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 2: three and a half four, I like it. The Falcons also,

841
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,240
Speaker 2: as you like to say, Stucky, they solidify their special

842
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 2: teams a little. You know, when they brought Matt Bryant

843
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 2: back because they were going to go into the season

844
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 2: with Gorgio to Vecchio who had been troubled.

845
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 1: Yeah.

846
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then the Vikings still have issues at kicker.

847
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 4: I'm probably not gonna bet this game. I agree with

848
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 4: you in Sark. Steve Starkey's in the leaving it offensive coordinator.

849
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 4: There were some hard things they were doing in Atlanta

850
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,359
Speaker 4: last year. Terrible injury luck last year as well. I

851
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,839
Speaker 4: expect to bounce back year for the Falcons, I think

852
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 4: the two things I want to watch here. Can the

853
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 4: Vikings offensive line, which is atrocious up the middle, can

854
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 4: they block Grady Jarrett, who's just a monster or is

855
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 4: he just going to blow up everything? I also want

856
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 4: to see if the Vikings go with two tight end

857
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 4: sets this year. Kyle Rudolph is back and the kid

858
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 4: they drafted from Alabama or Smith, So I want to

859
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 4: see it that they use them.

860
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,240
Speaker 1: But as long as.

861
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 4: The right side of the Falcons offensive line, which is

862
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 4: one of the major question marks of the entire team,

863
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 4: if they're healthy, and they can, you know, stop Daniel

864
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,280
Speaker 4: Hunter from just getting in the backfield and murdering Matt Ryan.

865
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:21,399
Speaker 4: You mentioned a player, Xavier Roads. He is living off

866
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 4: of his name now, just like Josh Norman. These corners,

867
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 4: elite corners are like major league center fielders. It takes

868
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 4: one running backs, it takes one year. You hit thirty

869
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 4: or thirty one, your step is gone, Boom, You're done.

870
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 4: Xavier Roads last year was atrocious. He's looked atrocious in

871
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 4: preseason and he's just no longer the lockdown corner that

872
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 4: he was. PFF grades last three years, Roads seventy three,

873
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 4: eight seventy two, four fifty eight too plummet. He's gonna

874
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 4: probably be locked up in shadowing Julio Jones. And if

875
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 4: you give Matt Ryan time, Jones is going to burn him.

876
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 4: I think the foul and they're gonna get some huge

877
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 4: plays down the field.

878
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a great point.

879
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 2: And again I just come back to this and you're

880
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 2: kind of laying it out, but passing efficiency is a

881
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 2: major predictor of winning football games. And the bottom line

882
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 2: is all their struggles, the Falcons had offensive line. The Falcons,

883
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 2: for all their struggles seventh in the league in yards

884
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 2: in attempt at a tooh. The Minnesota Vikings they were

885
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 2: number twenty three at seven to one, and that's in

886
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 2: yards per attempt and in net yards the Falcons were

887
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 2: also number seven.

888
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 3: The Vikings were eighteenth.

889
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 2: So you know, even with its good of stealing and

890
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,360
Speaker 2: digs were you know, it wasn't translating into you know,

891
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 2: efficient offense for them. I think they're gonna kind of

892
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 2: want to run more, which I always worry about. They

893
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 2: got away with it last year against in some cake

894
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: matchups against I think it was the Dolphins, and they

895
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: played the Lions after they fired de Filippo.

896
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 3: So it was like, oh, hey, you know, running more

897
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:50,760
Speaker 3: it works.

898
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 2: I don't know if it works against dan Quinn taking

899
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 2: over and these guys. I think that the Falcons can

900
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 2: keep it closes's not went out right, Yeah.

901
00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good point to see what they're gonna

902
00:36:59,960 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 4: douse they you know, they obviously fired Tim or fired

903
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 4: that he said I want to run more. They fired

904
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 4: the off supportinator and the name ram Moore. What do

905
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,839
Speaker 4: they do this year? You'll know that by the first

906
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 4: game or two. That's obviously something interesting to keep in mind.

907
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, now, let's let's go to the best

908
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 3: of the rest.

909
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 2: In this segment, we will run through the remaining games

910
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 2: that we that we did not discuss in the Sunday

911
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 2: six packs. So these will be all of the remaining

912
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 2: Sunday games. Stucky, you will be covering breaking down the

913
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,879
Speaker 2: Monday night football game with Colin Wilson. So let us

914
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 2: run through these games. Starting with the one pm Eastern games,

915
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 2: we have the Washington Redskins going to Philadelphia to take

916
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 2: on the Eagles. The Eagles are ten point favorite. Stuck

917
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:40,839
Speaker 2: the away the points.

918
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 4: By the way trivia a good trivia for everyone out

919
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 4: there listening. Name to Washington Redskins starting receivers this year.

920
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say it's gonna be Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn,

921
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 2: and probably Terry McLaren.

922
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 4: I bet ninety percent of listeners and I don't blame

923
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 4: them couldn't name one.

924
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 1: It's crazy.

925
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:57,839
Speaker 4: I mean, they spent all that money for Richardson too,

926
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 4: but do you lay it? Probably the line is probably

927
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 4: about right. Would you take what I take?

928
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 1: The Redskins? Nope?

929
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 4: Uh, the Redskins are a mess, and the biggest thing

930
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 4: with them is they're gonna they play single high free

931
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,879
Speaker 4: safety with Nicholson. He's atrocious. You can't do it with him,

932
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 4: So they could get beat deep here. The Eagles are

933
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 4: so solid in every phase. This team could be really

934
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 4: special this year. They really don't have any weaknesses. Maybe

935
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 4: the linebacker when staying healthy. Maybe so No, I think

936
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 4: the line is about right. I hate Lank ten or

937
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 4: more in the NFL, so I'm staying away.

938
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would definitely take the Eagles in this spot.

939
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 2: You know who's the most proven guy, Like like, when

940
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 2: he comes to your team, he's raising your passing efficiency.

941
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 3: That's to Shawn Jackson.

942
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,799
Speaker 2: I mean everywhere he goes quarterback yard per attempt skyrocket.

943
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 2: When he's on the fields, he's scaring the defense. He's

944
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 2: making things happen for other people. He's an upgrade on

945
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 2: what they've had over these past couple of years. Whether

946
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 2: they're trying agalar outside. You know, it's just, uh, we're

947
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 2: gonna We're.

948
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 1: Just gonna watch Norman get him messed up. Yeah, host him.

949
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 4: I think it's the biggest discrepancy between a receiver and

950
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 4: corner forty wise or something.

951
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we got to move on.

952
00:38:57,840 --> 00:38:59,359
Speaker 2: But I'll just say this, you know, get an article

953
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,359
Speaker 2: and Action network. The myth that you need to sit

954
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:04,399
Speaker 2: a quarterback in year one, it's a myth.

955
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 3: So you know, the.

956
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 2: Giants are just silly because we obviously know Daniel Jones

957
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 2: should be taken over. But the Redskins Dwayne Haskins did

958
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 2: not clearly state his case for that job. I think

959
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 2: that's worried some case. Keenum is not good. The Rams

960
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 2: are good. They're going to Carolina. Carolina is a two

961
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 2: point two and a half point underdog. Cam Newton looks

962
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 2: like he's going to give it a go. Should have

963
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 2: no restrictions. What do you think about this one stuff.

964
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 4: Look, this is going to go back to what I

965
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:32,759
Speaker 4: said before and regression and teams aren't that good, and

966
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 4: the Rams and the Panthers.

967
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: The Rams are excellent team. The Panthers are not as

968
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 1: bad as they were last year.

969
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 4: Remember there were six and two or everyone was talking

970
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 4: about Super Bowl and then Cam Newton got hurt. Then

971
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 4: he can basically throw out the rest of their season.

972
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 4: But just look at these two teams last year. Rams

973
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:48,399
Speaker 4: had won score games last year were six and one.

974
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 4: There were four to zero field goal games, plus eleven

975
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 4: turnover March four more return touchdowns you know, defensive touchdowns

976
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 4: than their opponents. Panthers three and seven and one score games,

977
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 4: one in three field goal games, dead even in turnovers.

978
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 4: I think the Panthers improved in the trenches overall with

979
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 4: some draft picks and some signings. Newton is now healthy

980
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 4: his shoulder, you can actually throw the ball downfield. The

981
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 4: Rams are weaker on their offensive line, still have excellent tackles,

982
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,800
Speaker 4: but in the middle, and it comes down the pressure.

983
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 4: If the Panthers can get pressure, then Jared Goff Jared

984
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 4: Goff under pressure. He doesn't have that strong of an

985
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,439
Speaker 4: arm Mechanically, if he gets time to throw it, he's

986
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:32,240
Speaker 4: great and accurate. But if you pressure him, he's Josh Rosen.

987
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 4: I mean, look last year he was thirty fourth in

988
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 4: the league at fifty nine point eight quarterback grating under pressure.

989
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 4: If you pressure Golf, I think the Panthers are going

990
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 4: to scheme this. I mean you saw it in the

991
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 4: Super Bowl as well. When he was under pressure. He

992
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 4: looked awful. But the other thing I will say is,

993
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 4: you know what to talk about the Rams last year

994
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 4: when they won all those close games, they were covered

995
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 4: sixty six percent of the fumbles in their games. That

996
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 4: was the highest the NFL. Two years ago, it was

997
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 4: forty seven percent, right around average. They were just getting

998
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 4: lucky all over the place. They also lost Mikah Kaiser,

999
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 4: was supposed to start at linebacker. They now they have

1000
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 4: Bryce Hagard's basically a special teamer starting at linebacker. I

1001
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 4: think this team is a lot worse, and the market

1002
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 4: is implying just because of how much success.

1003
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:12,879
Speaker 1: They had last year.

1004
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 4: I really like the Panthers here, but I prefer them

1005
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 4: in the first half unless I can get a three.

1006
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 4: The Rams didn't play anyone again in the preseason. I

1007
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 4: think it's a smart move long term, but there's gonna

1008
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 4: be rouss. I mean Eric Weddo, who came into the

1009
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 4: Rems one of their best offseason signing, said look, he's like,

1010
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 4: I'm sure the first couple of quarters, maybe even game,

1011
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 4: my timing's going.

1012
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 1: To be off.

1013
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,359
Speaker 4: You might say, oh, last year, but they blew out

1014
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 4: the Raiders. The Raiders number one were atrocious. Number two,

1015
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 4: the Rams are trailing at the half in that game

1016
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,359
Speaker 4: before they went off in the second half, but they

1017
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 4: came out flat and rusty as hell.

1018
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 1: It's going to take some time. I like the Panthers

1019
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: in the first half here.

1020
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,279
Speaker 4: I think the Panthers find a way to win, and

1021
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 4: I really like them for the first half for their

1022
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 4: game if you can get three.

1023
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,720
Speaker 2: I struggle with this one because a lot of smart

1024
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 2: people I know are on the Carolina Panthers. And if

1025
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 2: you look back at at the Rams and some of

1026
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 2: their road games last season, they were solid, but as

1027
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,879
Speaker 2: you mentioned, a lot of they were two point wins.

1028
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 2: I mean, they had a two point win I believe

1029
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 2: it was against Seattle on the road, and another game

1030
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 2: so they only really.

1031
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:06,919
Speaker 3: Blew out backs.

1032
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:10,919
Speaker 2: However, I do think that people are underrate, like overrating

1033
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 2: the potential for regression, and a lot of things that

1034
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 2: happened last year in the context of the fact that

1035
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 2: Cooper Cup was not on the fields for a large

1036
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 2: portion of that season. With Cooper Cup in the lineup,

1037
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 2: twenty three games, so passing attempt stabilized after about four

1038
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 2: or five hundred attempt So this is beyond that twenty

1039
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 2: three games with Cooper Cup in the lineup, Jared Goff

1040
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 2: yards per pass attempt eight point six without Cup seven

1041
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 2: point three.

1042
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 3: All those games without Cup essentially were last year. So

1043
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 3: I think that that's.

1044
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 1: Also when Todd Gurley was actually a running back. Is

1045
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 1: he still actually a running back?

1046
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 3: But with a listen Todd Gurley. A lot of people

1047
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 3: don't know.

1048
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 2: This not good in the shotgun over the course of

1049
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 2: the McVeigh tenure. So these two years just two point

1050
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 2: eight yards per carry out of the gun. That's why

1051
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,760
Speaker 2: they drafted Darrell Henderson so they can literally give Gurley

1052
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 2: a breather and be.

1053
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 3: More efficient in doing so.

1054
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,760
Speaker 2: At the Saint like they accomplished so much, and I think,

1055
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 2: what like what kind of tilts me toward the rams,

1056
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 2: especially at the two point five number, you know, but

1057
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 2: you know below three. Is that with Cut being back, like,

1058
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a lot harder to

1059
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 2: kind of like out scheme this team or just outplay

1060
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,280
Speaker 2: this team. So I don't think the pressure will really

1061
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 2: like manifest itself, because there's gonna be the whole thing

1062
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 2: with Cup is he gives you options, opens the offense

1063
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 2: up so much. I think you see it in the numbers.

1064
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 2: So I would wean Rams if I had to bet it,

1065
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:27,800
Speaker 2: But I do agree it's it's a tough one because

1066
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 2: you know the Rams have played a ton of close games.

1067
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,760
Speaker 2: Let's let's keep it moving. Let's go a little bit quicker.

1068
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 2: We got the Ravens visiting the Miami Dolphins. Ravens are

1069
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 2: a seven point favorite there. How do you feel about

1070
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:38,839
Speaker 2: this game?

1071
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 1: I think the line's about right. The Dolphins are the

1072
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 1: worst team the NFL. They're tanking.

1073
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,359
Speaker 4: The Ravens should be able to move the ball down

1074
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 4: the field on the ground. I mean everything where you

1075
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 4: look on the Dolphins is terrible. I don't know how

1076
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 4: the Dolphins are gonna score. I do like the higher

1077
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 4: Flores and he's a great schemer. We saw that in

1078
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 4: New England and Ryan Fitzpatrick's a gunslinger, but I think

1079
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 4: they're just gonna run the ball. They don't have receivers,

1080
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 4: and the Ravens have an elite secondary. The Ravens aren't

1081
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 4: going all throw the ball either. The strength of the

1082
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 4: Dolphins is in their secondary. Clock's gonna be bleeding. The

1083
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 4: totals low. I think it's low scoring. The Ravens find

1084
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 4: a way to win. Justin Tucker as a bunch of

1085
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 4: field goals. Bet the under. We'll see how bad the

1086
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 4: Dolphins really are, but the offensive line, there's nothing really good.

1087
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 1: About this team.

1088
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 4: In Spurs free to be my favorite under, and as

1089
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 4: you said, your favorite under is New England.

1090
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 2: We talked about this on the Fantasy Pod, but I

1091
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 2: have Lamar Jackson fourteenth, kind of middle of the pack,

1092
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 2: and one of the reasons is that, well total, you

1093
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 2: just don't really know if either team is going to

1094
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 2: really be able to push the other to score a

1095
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 2: ton of points in this one. So I'm with you

1096
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 2: there nothing really more to add. Would take the Ravens

1097
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 2: if forced, but do agree that there is some uncertain team.

1098
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,720
Speaker 2: With Slorees taken over as the new head coach from Miami,

1099
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 2: this should be a more interesting one Colts plus six

1100
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 2: and a half at the La charges Da Kobe Brissett

1101
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 2: of course starting at quarterback for the Colts for the

1102
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 2: retired Andrew Luck.

1103
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is all about the seven. If

1104
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,319
Speaker 4: you can get seven or more, I think you have

1105
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 4: to look at the Colts. The more I look at

1106
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 4: this game, Russell o'kung not being available is huge. I

1107
00:44:58,160 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 4: think the Colts are going to have a huge advantage

1108
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 4: the trenches on both sides of the ball, especially on

1109
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 4: the defensive side of the ball. Now, I mentioned before,

1110
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 4: the Colts play zone more than any team in the NFL.

1111
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:09,439
Speaker 4: They want to keep you in front of him, prevent

1112
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 4: big plays. They drop two safeties of uh you know,

1113
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:14,719
Speaker 4: mofo for some of you familiar, the middle of the

1114
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:16,359
Speaker 4: field is going to be open. The thing is, if

1115
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 4: you can't get pressure against an elite quarterback with an

1116
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 4: elite receivers, they can pick apart the Colts. You can

1117
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:24,280
Speaker 4: pick apart the Colts. And if you don't get pressure,

1118
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 4: that's the biggest question though. Can Indianapolis get pressure? I

1119
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:30,359
Speaker 4: think yes because this Charter's offensive line now al Kun

1120
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 4: is atrocious as bad as the Maybe the Dolphins, maybe

1121
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 4: not as bad as the Dolphins, but the Bengals, and

1122
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 4: it's a bad offensive line.

1123
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 1: I mean, Sam Tevy a right tackles, a joke, o'coon

1124
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 1: is out. I don't even know. There's some fire maybe

1125
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 1: a fireman at left tackle. I don't know. I don't

1126
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 1: forget his name. But it's bad.

1127
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 4: So I think the Colts can get pressure, then their

1128
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 4: their scheme works. If that's the case, the Charter's offensive

1129
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 4: line is a mess.

1130
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: Uh But if not.

1131
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 4: If Rivers gets time, he's going to pick apart that offense.

1132
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 4: If it's I think if it's under seven, which it

1133
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 4: is now, maybe look at the Charters.

1134
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 1: But I think you should see a seven again. I

1135
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 1: think you gotta look at the Colts. I think, because

1136
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:03,800
Speaker 1: their advantage in the trenches, they're obviously all going to

1137
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 1: be up for it like us against the world without luck.

1138
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 1: So I lean, I lean Colts, But wait for that seven.

1139
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:11,840
Speaker 3: I think this is, you know, the right number essentially.

1140
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 2: I mean, the one thing Rivers has going in his

1141
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 2: favor is that you know.

1142
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:15,919
Speaker 3: He can get the ball out quick.

1143
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 2: Hunter Henry back helps that they have Eckler, who you know,

1144
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:20,760
Speaker 2: even without Gordon Ecker, a great passcatcher out of the background.

1145
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 3: I think it was a lot of dumping it down

1146
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 3: the line.

1147
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 2: Moved to seven, and it kept getting bet back by

1148
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:26,839
Speaker 2: you know, Sharp actually kept hitting it, you know, back

1149
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,400
Speaker 2: down to six to five. I don't think it should,

1150
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:30,959
Speaker 2: you know, go to six. I don't think it should

1151
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 2: go to seven. I think is the right number. I

1152
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:35,919
Speaker 2: think we're going to move on the Cincinnati Bengals, Zach

1153
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 2: Taylor taking over there for long time coach Marvin Lewis

1154
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 2: in Seattle. Seattle nine and a half point favorites as

1155
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 2: we record this Thursday.

1156
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 3: What do you think about this one?

1157
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 1: If it gets to ten, I would look at the Bengals,

1158
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 1: for no.

1159
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 4: The Bengals are terrible, by the way, and their offensive

1160
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 4: line well, a bunch of injuries is terrible.

1161
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 1: So ten, there's a lot to cover in the NFL.

1162
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 1: If this gets ten, of le the Bengals, But this is

1163
00:46:58,200 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 1: a game I went to zero part.

1164
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 2: Of yeah, I would still take Seattle anything before ten

1165
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:04,839
Speaker 2: as well. I think they're clear of the better team,

1166
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 2: but they are going to run a ton, so you

1167
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 2: do worry about that high spread and Seattle's defense, you know,

1168
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 2: starting to get a little bit better. Don't know if

1169
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 2: the Venals will be able to score. You can have

1170
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 2: a team that struggled to score. That was a New

1171
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 2: York Giants for much of last season. They did get

1172
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 2: a little better towards the end, of course, now no

1173
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 2: Odell Beckham Giants in Dallas. Zeke Back looks like he's

1174
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 2: going to play about half of the game, maybe a

1175
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 2: little less. Could still touch the ball a lot though

1176
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 2: when he's on the field. Dallas minus seven. How are

1177
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 2: you feeling about this one?

1178
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 1: You know it's a divisional game seven.

1179
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 4: Cowboys have struggled at home against the spread, especially as

1180
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 4: a favorite under Garrett. You know these teams know each

1181
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 4: other well. Cowboys in the trenches, they have one of

1182
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 4: the best offensive lines football. Now that they're healthy, they

1183
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 4: should be able to line up run the ball.

1184
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 1: You know, short easy best. They'll be able to move

1185
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 1: the sticks with much more ease than the Giants. I

1186
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 1: think that's the difference. I think the Giants can hang

1187
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 1: around seven plus.

1188
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 4: Maybe I look at the Giant, but I'll personally be

1189
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 4: throwing the Cowboys in a teaser as a teaser to

1190
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 4: our teaser segment.

1191
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the line is correct at seven for

1192
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 2: the Cowboys. May see it even go up, not that

1193
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 2: it should, but you know, Ezekiel Elliott being back, I

1194
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 2: think may inflate the line. Cowboys tend to be a

1195
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 2: public darling, so we'll see how that goes. San Francisco

1196
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers going to Tampa Bay. Jimmy Garoppolo finally

1197
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 2: back regular season action for him. Bruce Arians taken over

1198
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 2: for the Bucks. This game is now a pick them.

1199
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:33,399
Speaker 2: The Bucks were previously favored, so the line has moved

1200
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 2: against them.

1201
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 3: How do you feel about this one?

1202
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: And stuff? This is a game I want to watch.

1203
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily know if I want to bet.

1204
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 4: Forty nine Ers are intriguing to me because if their

1205
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,319
Speaker 4: defensive front is awesome and they should be able to

1206
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:45,840
Speaker 4: create a lot of pressure, and they might have one

1207
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 4: of the best defensive lines in all football, but their

1208
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:52,399
Speaker 4: secondary is horrendous. Their safeties last year, we're horrendous. Their

1209
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 4: corners are not anything the right home about. They're going

1210
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 4: to play with, you know, one deep safety. They're gonna

1211
00:48:57,560 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 4: bring a lot in the box.

1212
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:01,240
Speaker 1: But if they can't get pressure their corner, their safeties

1213
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 1: and quarters are gonna get burnt to all help.

1214
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 4: But they should be able to get pressure against this

1215
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 4: Tampa offensive line, which is not great. But if Winston

1216
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:12,279
Speaker 4: gets any time, Mike Evans is gonna have a field day.

1217
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 4: You know, God whin They're gonna have a field day

1218
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 4: down the field against these safeties and corners and the

1219
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:18,239
Speaker 4: San France scheme. So I need to see what this

1220
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,319
Speaker 4: Tampa offensive line is gonna do. It's a really fascinating

1221
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,719
Speaker 4: game because of the stand friend defense is so fascinating

1222
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 4: to me, just a you know, a really questionable back

1223
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:29,239
Speaker 4: end and then an awesome front end. You put a

1224
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:31,919
Speaker 4: gun on my head. I'm gonna say Winston makes enough

1225
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 4: plays and wins. I don't have any confidence in it.

1226
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:35,040
Speaker 4: Those I'm staying away.

1227
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kind of on board with you. I am

1228
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 2: actually a little lower on Tampa Bay. I think everyone's

1229
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 2: kind of thinking, hey, Bruce arians is here, they're gonna

1230
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 2: open it up. They're gonna go downfield well Byron Left,

1231
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:46,399
Speaker 2: which is actually the o C. It's been talking about, Hey,

1232
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,720
Speaker 2: Jamis needs to make smarter plays because you know, obviously

1233
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 2: the turnovers just got the benched a few times last season.

1234
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 2: So I don't necessarily know that they can take it.

1235
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 2: They're gonna take advantage of it. Like they would have

1236
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 2: a season ago maybe or always try to.

1237
00:49:58,440 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 3: And I do agree with too.

1238
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 2: I think part of the reason that you saw such

1239
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 2: bad safety play with the forty nine ers and just

1240
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:06,319
Speaker 2: the secondary kind of underperforming was because of that lack

1241
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:06,720
Speaker 2: of pressure.

1242
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:09,680
Speaker 3: I think they have at least the pieces in place to.

1243
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 2: Get it, and they're they're in the right matchup, so

1244
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:14,439
Speaker 2: I think we could see at least for a week

1245
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 2: kind of a somewhat improved San Francisco defense relative to

1246
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 2: what the expectation is. So yeah, this is one I

1247
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:24,399
Speaker 2: probably lean niners, and if I had to overend this game,

1248
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:26,359
Speaker 2: I don't think I would feel as confident about it

1249
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 2: as as you might think for this kind of a matchup.

1250
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 2: So you know that that was the last game here

1251
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 2: for Sunday. Of course you'll be breaking down with colin

1252
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 2: the Monday games, which would be interesting. You have Deshaun Watson,

1253
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:40,560
Speaker 2: the Texans going to Warwans and the Broncos visiting the

1254
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 2: Oakland Raiders.

1255
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 3: But let's get into we're gonna do a teaser, We're

1256
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:43,879
Speaker 3: gonna do a.

1257
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 2: Total a money line parlay, and then close out get

1258
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,720
Speaker 2: you guys out of here with our top survivor pool

1259
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 2: pick for this week.

1260
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 3: So let's start with the total and this will count twitter.

1261
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:59,040
Speaker 2: We're gonna keep track of our best bets and the

1262
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:00,799
Speaker 2: six back and the toll is going to be worth

1263
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 2: one point as well, So I'll go first for the total.

1264
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 1: For me, I am.

1265
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:08,359
Speaker 2: Going to go with the Pittsburgh New England under. As

1266
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 2: I mentioned an underrated reason. You know, New England runs

1267
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,840
Speaker 2: the ball about seven eight percent more at home, and

1268
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:15,759
Speaker 2: they've done this over the.

1269
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:16,840
Speaker 3: Past three seasons.

1270
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 2: Just you know, usually you don't see tendencies with New England,

1271
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 2: but this is just something where when they come out

1272
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 2: at home, they want they want to run the football

1273
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:24,840
Speaker 2: and see if you can stop it. And that's just

1274
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 2: kind of how they go about things and then they

1275
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 2: open it up as needed.

1276
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:30,760
Speaker 3: So I expect them to try to do that again.

1277
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:33,359
Speaker 2: I think Pittsburgh, you know they only score ten points

1278
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:36,720
Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh last year. Mentioned how how well New England

1279
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 2: has played in terms of stopping top receivers, and I

1280
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:42,719
Speaker 2: think it gets harder without ab So like the under

1281
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 2: fifty in the Patriots and Steelers who you got stuff?

1282
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 1: I like that by the way, that Patriots under.

1283
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:51,360
Speaker 4: I think the Patriots with their Corners can match up

1284
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 4: against the Steels.

1285
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:53,440
Speaker 1: Seronis got to run it. They're gonna to find Vance

1286
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 1: McDonald over the middle.

1287
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 4: They're got to run the ball ten And like I

1288
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 4: said before, the Steelers can now match up with the

1289
00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 4: Patriots because of their scheme and no grow and no

1290
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 4: tight ends down to whatever their eighth tight end is

1291
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:04,640
Speaker 4: going to hurt against the Steelers. And I mentioned before

1292
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 4: the Ravens underwaight on it, I should get to thirty eight,

1293
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:07,520
Speaker 4: thirty and a half thirty nine.

1294
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 1: Maybe, I like the under there of the game should

1295
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:09,439
Speaker 1: be ugly.

1296
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:11,839
Speaker 4: I'll probably split it between first half and game because

1297
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 4: with a total that low, if you get one fluke,

1298
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,719
Speaker 4: you know, one fluke touchdown, you know, you're kind of

1299
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,479
Speaker 4: diversifying your risk by splitting up first half in game under.

1300
00:52:19,760 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 4: So just to sum up our picks for this week

1301
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 4: in the contest, my top pick, which is where two

1302
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 4: points the Jags and then I'm going with the Steelers

1303
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 4: and the Buffalo Bills is my second and third pick.

1304
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:33,439
Speaker 4: My total is the Ravens under. My other second paper

1305
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 4: one just to say it is Bills Jets under.

1306
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:37,320
Speaker 1: And what's your recap for the contest?

1307
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,800
Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinals plus two point five, the Cleveland Browns minus

1308
00:52:40,840 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 2: five and a half, and the Atlanta Falcons plus four

1309
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 2: with Patriots Steelers under fifty points. So we'll give our

1310
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 2: favorite six point two team teither our favorite underdog for

1311
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 2: betting on the money line, and we'll combine that into

1312
00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 2: a parway and see if it hits. We'll kind of

1313
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 2: track that as well, and then a survivor put pool.

1314
00:52:59,880 --> 00:53:00,239
Speaker 1: So let's go.

1315
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:01,840
Speaker 3: Let's get through these quick stuck.

1316
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 2: Who is your favorite teaser two team teaser for this week?

1317
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll have a piece out there on the Action

1318
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 4: Network this week and I did it last year too.

1319
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:13,840
Speaker 4: On six point teasers in the NFL, you actually have

1320
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 4: an edge over the book if you do a sixteen

1321
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 4: teaser in the NFL that crosses through the three and

1322
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 4: the seven. So you know, in order to win money

1323
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 4: with a sixteen teaser, you need to hit at a

1324
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 4: greater than seventy two point four percent chance both you know,

1325
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 4: both teams have to have. So if we look back,

1326
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 4: you know, on our bat Labs database, but if you

1327
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 4: look back, all NFL spreads would have covered only sixty

1328
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 4: nine percent of the time. Nice if you tease them

1329
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 4: six points but that's not more than seventy two point

1330
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 4: four percent, But if they cross through the three and seven,

1331
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 4: then it does. It's actually seventy five percent. So favorites

1332
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 4: between seven and a half and eight a half, if

1333
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 4: you tease them down seventy five percent. And then if

1334
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 4: you tease one and a half and two and a

1335
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 4: half point underdogs up over seven, those are about seventy

1336
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 4: four percent of the time. So that's if you know nothing.

1337
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 4: If you just blindly tease these two and a half

1338
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 4: or two and a half two point underdogs up over seven,

1339
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 4: and then you know seven and a half point favorites

1340
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 4: under three eight point works as well. You would, you

1341
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:14,319
Speaker 4: blindly have an edge over the books. And that's why

1342
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 4: in Vegas, you know, during the NFL plasant Suns, they

1343
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 4: won't let you do it. The six point t's are

1344
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 4: crossing through the three and seven, but most of most

1345
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 4: places you can, and it's really smart to do it.

1346
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 4: And then if you do, you know, teasers have more

1347
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:27,399
Speaker 4: value with lower totals, and you know, there's all kinds

1348
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 4: of things that I you know, tips for doing you

1349
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:31,719
Speaker 4: can increase your you know, win probability even more so,

1350
00:54:32,080 --> 00:54:34,440
Speaker 4: I'm following my own advice here. My favorite teaser of

1351
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:36,800
Speaker 4: the week is teasing a favorite down from seven and

1352
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 4: a half to one and a half. That's the Cowboys,

1353
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 4: so I think, find a way to win. And then

1354
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 4: I'm teasing the Panthers from two up to eight, and

1355
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 4: I'll also be on them first half, but I think

1356
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 4: that's a one possession game and the Cowboys win and

1357
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 4: it meets all my criterias.

1358
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:51,960
Speaker 1: That's my favorite teaser.

1359
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:54,440
Speaker 3: I'm teasing the Buffalo Bills.

1360
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 2: I wish they were at two five if they're at three,

1361
00:54:57,280 --> 00:55:02,040
Speaker 2: and then the Seattle Seahawks from nine to five to

1362
00:55:02,120 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 2: three five, so you know, not quite as not quite

1363
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:06,280
Speaker 2: through the three and the seven, but there aren't many

1364
00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 2: you know, spreads I wipe in that range. Like I'm

1365
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:11,720
Speaker 2: betting the Cardinals, we'll straight up, you know, decide.

1366
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:14,359
Speaker 3: I don't want to necessarily throw them in a teaser there.

1367
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:15,960
Speaker 4: So yeah, And the next best thing you can do,

1368
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:18,239
Speaker 4: if you you know, not teasing through the three and

1369
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 4: seven is if you have a team on three and

1370
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:23,879
Speaker 4: you're teasing them up, you're basically cheasing through the three

1371
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:24,400
Speaker 4: as well.

1372
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 1: That is the next best thing. Just never don't ever

1373
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 1: tease through a zero, Right, So don't you're just there's

1374
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:31,839
Speaker 1: just you're just losing so much value. Yep.

1375
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 2: Now we're each essentially going to choose our favorite underdog

1376
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:36,799
Speaker 2: who we think has a shot to win outright, So

1377
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 2: essentially our favorite underdog on the money line. We're gonna

1378
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 2: combine them and see if the parway hits.

1379
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:47,480
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1380
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1381
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 2: Uh, you can start it off. Which underdog are you

1382
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 2: taking this week?

1383
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:53,239
Speaker 3: And what's the line?

1384
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 4: I am going with my beloved, Well, well, we might

1385
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:01,279
Speaker 4: not be saying that next week. My beloved Axionville Jaguars

1386
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:03,759
Speaker 4: at plus one sixty. I think they get it done

1387
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:05,279
Speaker 4: this week of the Chiefs. I think that's just a

1388
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,960
Speaker 4: huge aggression one eighty for the Jags, and I think

1389
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 4: they match up well.

1390
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 2: You know, that's gonna be one of the games I'm

1391
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 2: looking forward to the most. I'm actually gonna go with

1392
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 2: my first pick in our six pack as well, the

1393
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinals at plus one point thirty. I think this

1394
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:22,240
Speaker 2: team is just getting underrated. They're at home, they're against

1395
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 2: a mediocre it's a poor team. If we combine those

1396
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 2: into a parway the odds would pay out right about

1397
00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:29,839
Speaker 2: five to one.

1398
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:31,279
Speaker 1: We'll track it all year, see how we do.

1399
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:34,400
Speaker 2: You know, you'll it'll probably be my fault that we

1400
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:37,839
Speaker 2: go oh to seventeen, but let's hope we don't. And

1401
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 2: this is one where we feel confident in this segment,

1402
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:42,640
Speaker 2: this last segment before we get out of here, our

1403
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 2: Survivor Pool pick of the week. We actually didn't share

1404
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 2: our picks first of this is not like we're not

1405
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 2: competing here, so if we both like the same team,

1406
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:51,960
Speaker 2: we can kind of, you know, talk about it.

1407
00:56:52,000 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 3: But I'll start it off.

1408
00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 2: I got the Seattle Seahawks highly confident and they'll win

1409
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 2: the game. You know, I think Cincinnati is going to

1410
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:00,719
Speaker 2: be one of the easiest opponent they face all year.

1411
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 2: They're in a really tough division, so I don't actually

1412
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 2: mind getting them out of the way in week one.

1413
00:57:06,400 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 3: What about you?

1414
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:08,719
Speaker 1: When he said we don't share these ahead of time,

1415
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:10,439
Speaker 1: we actually send them to our producer so we can

1416
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:12,160
Speaker 1: we're going to compete against each other just in this

1417
00:57:12,360 --> 00:57:14,880
Speaker 1: so we'll always give out our Survivor picks no matter what.

1418
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 4: But we'll see how far we can advance. In some weeks,

1419
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:18,800
Speaker 4: we might have the same one, but we're doing it

1420
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 4: like a real survivor. But where we send our picks

1421
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:22,440
Speaker 4: in because then we can talk about the strategy and

1422
00:57:22,480 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 4: game theory of it going against each other, We'll do

1423
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 4: it for a lunch. I'm going with the Eagles. I

1424
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 4: think that there. I just can't see any way that

1425
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 4: this absolutely laughable Redskins roster, which is also banged up,

1426
00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 4: wins in Philly. Philly always seems to have these weird

1427
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 4: clunkers at home once or twice a year to a

1428
00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 4: bad team, or they either lose or they're close to losing.

1429
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 1: I don't see it here, So I'm going with the Eagles.

1430
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people might have it, and

1431
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:53,400
Speaker 4: sometimes in Week one I like to, you know, go

1432
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:55,720
Speaker 4: with a non popular pick and just hope the masses

1433
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 4: fall out.

1434
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 1: But in this case, I'm going with what I think

1435
00:57:59,480 --> 00:58:01,800
Speaker 1: is the safest pick in the Eagles.

1436
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 2: These divisional games worried me a little, just because if

1437
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 2: a team is going to have a wet down, it

1438
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 2: tends to be in those games. Versus you know, when

1439
00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:11,040
Speaker 2: there's a clear talent disparity and the teams haven't played,

1440
00:58:11,040 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 2: it's it's usually little easier. So that's kind of why I

1441
00:58:12,520 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 2: want to see US. I mean, the lines are about

1442
00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 2: the same. I expect the Seahawks to eventually get to

1443
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 2: ten as well, though two are clearly the top two

1444
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 2: picks in terms of the odds. If you are making

1445
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:25,280
Speaker 2: a survivor pick this weekend, this will do it for

1446
00:58:25,720 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 2: the week one episode number one of the Action Network

1447
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:33,760
Speaker 2: podcast NFL Betting. Addition, for Stucky, I'm Chris Raybomb. Be

1448
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:37,280
Speaker 2: sure to stay tuned to the Action Network podcast as

1449
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:40,320
Speaker 2: Stucky will break down Monday night game with Colin Wilson

1450
00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 2: and of course recap everything that happened in college football

1451
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 2: until next time.

1452
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:46,920
Speaker 3: Let's get this sh money, go pack up.