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Speaker 4: All right, we'll get an M and a trade here today,
Speaker 4: which I think it's near and dear to a lot
Speaker 4: of folks that are particularly through seven eleven fans. I'm
Speaker 4: a wah wah guy myself.
Speaker 5: Crystal cover that story as well this morning. I mean
Speaker 5: seven to eleven has the Icy, which I like versus
Speaker 5: the Slurpie.
Speaker 6: What's the slur The Slurpy is? I think.
Speaker 5: Grainier? You know, the Icy is a lot smoother. Yep,
Speaker 5: And I'm a bigger fan of the Icy. Had one
Speaker 5: last night that my drive home from Gray State of Ohio.
Speaker 6: You were in Ohio? Yeah, what'd you drive?
Speaker 5: I drove back in my Dodge Challenger RT scat pack
Speaker 5: wide body on I eighty. Yeah that's a good cruiser.
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. Diana Rossettopania joints us here in our studios.
Speaker 4: She's a Bloomberg Intelligence consumer Staples Anos who is couch
Speaker 4: Tard and why are they buying seven eleven for thirty
Speaker 4: one billion dollars.
Speaker 7: Well, Cushtard is the second largest convenience store in the
Speaker 7: United States. They manage circle K, yes, and.
Speaker 5: That's why they have a French name that sounds funny
Speaker 5: to American years.
Speaker 7: Yes, it took me actually a while to be able
Speaker 7: to pronounce their name. But yeah, so they're very inquisitive.
Speaker 7: We're not that surprised that they are, you know, their stocks,
Speaker 7: that they want to buy something. But sevent eleven is
Speaker 7: actually a big name. There's valuations going from like fifty
Speaker 7: billion dollars to as much as like eighty five billion dollars.
Speaker 7: So for them to be able to do that, it's
Speaker 7: it's quite impressive. If they are able to.
Speaker 5: It's always surprising, I think to people who aren't in
Speaker 5: the know that seven to eleven is owned by a
Speaker 5: Japanese holding company, and I think they own Speedway as well.
Speaker 5: These seem like such American brands. So does Circle K
Speaker 5: and it's owned by a Canadian company. Is there going
Speaker 5: to be anti trust issues here?
Speaker 7: Well, for sure, the FDC, I mean, ask Kroger. They
Speaker 7: have been trying to purchase Albertson's for a couple of
Speaker 7: years now. So if they actually come up with the
Speaker 7: numbers and there's acceptance, I'm sure the FDC will have
Speaker 7: something to say. Seven eleven has like about fourteen percent
Speaker 7: of market share in the United States, whereas Skushtar with
Speaker 7: their Circle K brand, they have about five percent. So
Speaker 7: it definitely will be you know, up for again.
Speaker 6: I'm a wah wah guy, but you know I can.
Speaker 5: See is wah wah just like a New Jersey.
Speaker 6: No, no, but it is.
Speaker 7: What is it's the It's in the Northeast. There's mostly
Speaker 7: in the Northeast. So but yeah, there's.
Speaker 4: Explained to me this convenient store business. What's the economics
Speaker 4: of a convenience store?
Speaker 6: I just see people going in and out all the time.
Speaker 6: What's the economics?
Speaker 7: Well, basically, they want you to go in for your gas.
Speaker 7: They're very competitive in gas prices. Fuel margins have been
Speaker 7: improven in the past few years. Kush Star actually has
Speaker 7: about forty cents per gallon in terms of fuel margins.
Speaker 7: But what they're making money on is when you go
Speaker 7: into the store, particularly if you buy their sandwich sandwiches.
Speaker 7: The margins for that is like fifty percent.
Speaker 6: It's true.
Speaker 5: I was, by the way, I was filling up on
Speaker 5: the way there and back for more than four dollars
Speaker 5: and fifty cents a gallon.
Speaker 6: O because you're putting in the super duper high.
Speaker 5: I go with ninety three, and then I go in
Speaker 5: and I pick up a Snickers bar for my kid brother,
Speaker 5: and I got I don't know, like a TwixT. Each
Speaker 5: of those candy bars was more than two dollars and
Speaker 5: fifty cents.
Speaker 6: That's margin there.
Speaker 5: And I'm starting to feel like a really old man,
Speaker 5: you know, because when I was a kid, fifty cents
Speaker 5: is what you paid for these things.
Speaker 6: So are these good businesses?
Speaker 7: I mean, oh yeah, if they're buying, I'm sure you know.
Speaker 7: They they they think that there's some good business. I mean,
Speaker 7: Kushtart has Usually they they do big acquisitions. The last
Speaker 7: acquisition that they did was for eleven billion dollars for
Speaker 7: the total energy is in the in Europe, but they
Speaker 7: usually in the US they usually buy smaller operators. For example.
Speaker 7: Also this morning they announced that they bought get Go
Speaker 7: from Giant Eagle. So that's another convenience store which is
Speaker 7: in the you know, with.
Speaker 5: The delicious cold pork sandwich by the way.
Speaker 7: Oh well, I actually haven't tried it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I had one to go this weekend. H where's
Speaker 5: the get go? I had them in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's it's regional.
Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, all.
Speaker 6: Right, it's the Midwest. It's part of the world.
Speaker 3: I don't go to.
Speaker 5: I skipped the what's the one you like the cracker barrel?
Speaker 4: Cracker barrel, I declined, But you probably drove through past
Speaker 4: like one hundred of them month.
Speaker 5: Yes, yes, a lot of that. And I used to
Speaker 5: always stop because you get a books books on tape
Speaker 5: at one and then you'd return it at the next
Speaker 5: But you know, longer.
Speaker 4: What else were seeing in your space than in a
Speaker 4: retail space? What are some of the key things people
Speaker 4: are looking atuse you cover a.
Speaker 7: Lot of retail, Yeah, I mean, obviously, this is like
Speaker 7: the biggest thing that has happened today.
Speaker 5: It's one of the biggest deals of the year, right well, yeah,
Speaker 5: even Dollars puts it like number two.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, obviously the Kruger Albertson's acquisition. It's also
Speaker 7: the talk of the town. There's like likelihood that it
Speaker 7: might not happen. The FDC might object So what.
Speaker 4: Are we going to hear about that deal, because we've
Speaker 4: been talking about Kruger's and Albertson's for a long time.
Speaker 7: Yeah, honestly, like it really depends on, you know, what
Speaker 7: happens with the election and how you know, M and
Speaker 7: A friendly the FDC will be afterwards, all.
Speaker 4: Right, Well, seven to eleven by the numbers, and this
Speaker 4: is according to Bloomberger reporting eighty five thousand stores. That's huge,
Speaker 4: and they've got one hundred and fifty seven thousand employees.
Speaker 6: That's a big business. Yeah, you know cushcharges.
Speaker 4: I mean it's cure Start's got a bigger valuation fifty
Speaker 4: eight billion dollars valuation versus thirty eight for the seven
Speaker 4: and eleven, so much higher valuation using that stock in cash,
Speaker 4: I guess to get bigger.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think, you know, definitely, I mean, obviously I
Speaker 7: see this as an Asia play, to be honest with.
Speaker 5: You, which we've seen more and more and more of, right,
Speaker 5: I mean, if you look at activists investors involved in
Speaker 5: Japanese stocks, for example, it goes from fifteen and twenty
Speaker 5: twenty two to twenty five last year to twenty eight
Speaker 5: so far this year, and we're only in the first half.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean seven eleven has like thirty one percent
Speaker 7: of the Asia Pacific market share.
Speaker 6: So yeah, now we're talking.
Speaker 4: Now we're talking, Diana, Thank you so much for joining us. Diana, Orstopena,
Speaker 4: another one I hired back in today. She's blossomed into
Speaker 4: this great analyst. Very cool to see consumer staples analysts
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Intelligence joining us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio,
Speaker 4: not mailing it in from like Nantucket or dear Value.
Speaker 5: Work from home.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so BI Management, we know what's going on.
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Speaker 4: All right, our good friend Carl Icon in the news,
Speaker 4: but I don't think for reasons he wants to be.
Speaker 4: Crystal c joins us Bloomberg US Deals reporter Crystal. What's
Speaker 4: going on with our good friend Carl Icon? He had
Speaker 4: some some issues with the SEC.
Speaker 8: I think, yeah, I think he's probably quite glad about
Speaker 8: today's news This is like coming to an end something
Speaker 8: that's hungover, like hangover his head on its friends for
Speaker 8: a while. Today's news is that Hits firm and him
Speaker 8: are settling a charge with the SEC and paying a
Speaker 8: fine of two million dollars combined. And that is an
Speaker 8: investigation on the back of the Hindenburg recent report from
Speaker 8: twenty twenty three saying that they've inflated some of their
Speaker 8: asset values and quote unquote operate like a ponse scheme.
Speaker 8: So this is actually in some way good news, even
Speaker 8: though the stock doesn't quite reflect that today.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 5: No, the stock took a hit I think was last
Speaker 5: year in May when we first learned about these investigations,
Speaker 5: and short sellers started questioning what carl Icon's loans were
Speaker 5: really based on. Does this wrap it up? Is this
Speaker 5: the end of it?
Speaker 8: It looks like the end of it. So there are
Speaker 8: two investigations, if you remember this. One is the SEC
Speaker 8: investigation at settlement. The other one they had previously disclosed
Speaker 8: that they were contacted by the US Attorney's Office, and
Speaker 8: today they put out a statement IEP and I competitive
Speaker 8: statement saying that they haven't received any substantive communication from
Speaker 8: the US Attorney's office since the initial approach, so they,
Speaker 8: I guess you can take it as a good sign
Speaker 8: no news and sometimes good news and off us reporter,
Speaker 8: but for like them.
Speaker 5: You know that fifty dollars company, you know, fifty dollars
Speaker 5: plus and now it's a fifteen dollars company.
Speaker 8: Yeah, all right, and shares it down today as well.
Speaker 6: What's the all right?
Speaker 4: I'm just looking at the stock here, as Matt saying,
Speaker 4: it's down seven percent today, down about eight percent year
Speaker 4: to date, and down thirty.
Speaker 6: Percent over the trailing twelve months. So not a great
Speaker 6: move there, Crystal.
Speaker 4: Thanks so much for joining us, Crystal, see just giving
Speaker 4: us the update there. Carl Icon settling it what is
Speaker 4: for him, I'm sure a very small number, couple of
Speaker 4: million dollars to settle some issues with.
Speaker 6: The se c i EP. Carl Ion is eighty eight
Speaker 6: years old.
Speaker 5: Icon, he's in good shape for eighty eight. That is
Speaker 5: still a very sharp guy. His company, I mean, this
Speaker 5: is a diversified holding company. They hold automotive investments, energy, gaming, railcar,
Speaker 5: food packaging, Marcus real estate, medals, home fashion.
Speaker 6: Market cap seven point five billion dollars.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 4: Matthew Miller sitting in for Al Steel today in our
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Speaker 4: and search Bloomberg Podcast and that's where you will find us.
Speaker 6: Green on the screen today. Boy, that two weeks.
Speaker 4: Ago today when we had that big sell off and
Speaker 4: that man fixed jumping above sixty, you know, we got
Speaker 4: the vix back down below fifteen. It's just amazing the
Speaker 4: round trip we've had. So I don't know what to
Speaker 4: make of it, but I think our next guest might.
Speaker 4: Carl Schleife, chief investment officer at a Bimoh Family office,
Speaker 4: joined us via that Zoom thing. Carol, what's your opinion
Speaker 4: on what we've seen over the past couple of weeks again,
Speaker 4: starting with two weeks ago today when we had that
Speaker 4: panic sell off.
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's not necessarily unusual for August to be exceedingly volved.
Speaker 9: All we've got a lot of senior people on the beach,
Speaker 9: and it can very frequently lead to some choppy trading,
Speaker 9: like we saw. It was a little eye popping back then,
Speaker 9: but having lived through the nineteen eighty seven issue, which
Speaker 9: was October, but still did a Friday to Monday, if
Speaker 9: that Monday had been similar, it would have been down
Speaker 9: nine thousand points on the Dow, not just a mere thousand.
Speaker 5: That's great, but.
Speaker 9: It's not unusual at all to see that kind of volatility.
Speaker 9: I actually would have expected it to have to follow
Speaker 9: through for a few days, and I wouldn't write off
Speaker 9: that we're done seeing volatility, especially if we get into
Speaker 9: Friday and people don't like what Paul says in the speech,
Speaker 9: and or we're just in between earnings and now we're
Speaker 9: off a good earning seats and we don't have much
Speaker 9: going until the Fed meets again after this week in September.
Speaker 5: So well, we get to continuing claims out before that,
Speaker 5: and it seems like every little data point has become
Speaker 5: a big event for markets with I guess, you know,
Speaker 5: low volume, that's that's going to happen. But what could
Speaker 5: Powell say that would disappoint.
Speaker 9: If he pushed off the likelihood of a September card,
Speaker 9: because I think most of the expectations are you'll see
Speaker 9: a cut in September. The question is just how much
Speaker 9: twenty five basis points, fifty basis points will he be
Speaker 9: able to structure commentary that actually, FED policy currently is
Speaker 9: very restrictive given where the economic data is coming in.
Speaker 9: And yes, the FED has made us all very data
Speaker 9: dependent and data watchers on every single point trying to
Speaker 9: figure out which way the Fed's going to go. But
Speaker 9: there is a rationale and an ability for the FED
Speaker 9: to be able to say, hey, our policy is restrictive.
Speaker 9: We could actually chunk it down a time or two
Speaker 9: and it wouldn't be indicative of a softening economy. You've
Speaker 9: also got some retail numbers coming out this week which
Speaker 9: people will be watching closely at the biggest retailer report
Speaker 9: last week. And you've also got Nvidia coming out and
Speaker 9: if people don't like that, they haven't knocked it out.
Speaker 10: Of the park.
Speaker 9: Over and above where the expectations are, you could see
Speaker 9: that volatility in the markets in the short run.
Speaker 4: All right, Carol, we've done this round trip over the
Speaker 4: past couple of weeks.
Speaker 6: What do I do now in the equity markets.
Speaker 9: Well, I think you stay invested. Hopefully you were invested
Speaker 9: through all of that and set tight. You know, we
Speaker 9: were advising clients.
Speaker 8: You know.
Speaker 9: The interesting thing is is if you had a diversified portfolio,
Speaker 9: even on that Friday and Monday that were very volatile,
Speaker 9: your bonds did well because the rates came down to
Speaker 9: the bond prices went up, so you had that durability
Speaker 9: built into the portfolio. You also look more broadly at
Speaker 9: things that should benefit if the FED does start to cut, right,
Speaker 9: small caps should benefit, mid cap should benefit. Lots of
Speaker 9: different industries here in the US should continue to benefit.
Speaker 9: And we do suspect that once those rates come down,
Speaker 9: you'll see a consumers continue to spend because they're employed.
Speaker 9: You'll see businesses we suspect spend more than is expected
Speaker 9: right now. And maybe the biggest surprise out there is
Speaker 9: how low that tenure yield is, because we suspect it'll
Speaker 9: drift higher over the intermediate longer term.
Speaker 5: All right, So once the FED, I mean, I guess
Speaker 5: we're all on the same page that they are going
Speaker 5: to cut and buyk So twenty five basis points do
Speaker 5: they continue to do that? Carol? Because we're growing still
Speaker 5: at two and a half plus percent, and unemployment, although
Speaker 5: it ticked up, is still only four point three percent,
Speaker 5: which is very low. Inflation is also well under three
Speaker 5: percent now, which is back to well less than even
Speaker 5: its historical average. So does the Fed really need to
Speaker 5: be moving interest rates around? Why don't they just hold
Speaker 5: tight so that they have more powder left if something
Speaker 5: bad happens.
Speaker 9: They still have an incredible amount of powder if you
Speaker 9: think through that. For ten to fifteen years, they had
Speaker 9: basically no powder because there was zero to zero point
Speaker 9: five percent. They're at five and a quarter five point
Speaker 9: three percent right now, so they've got substantial policy room
Speaker 9: and still leaving policy room even if they brought it
Speaker 9: down one hundred basis points over the next six months
Speaker 9: or so, You've still got got room in there to
Speaker 9: be able to cut if things really did tail off.
Speaker 9: And the last thing they want to do is be
Speaker 9: caught behind the curve too, especially on that employment market,
Speaker 9: because you've seen the momentum tick up there, and granted
Speaker 9: it's from people coming into the market, but one question
Speaker 9: you have for yourself is are they coming into the
Speaker 9: market because of the they're being pinched by inflation? And
Speaker 9: really feel a need.
Speaker 4: Carol, I know in your notes here you've got industrials
Speaker 4: and materials as a couple sectors you're looking at.
Speaker 6: That's not very exciting. Why are you guys looking at that?
Speaker 9: Well, the thing of it is you look at the
Speaker 9: charts on some of those industrials and materials, and they've
Speaker 9: looked the charts actually look a lot like in videos
Speaker 9: chart does in terms of there's a lot of fiscal
Speaker 9: stimulus or a lot of fiscal spending plans still in
Speaker 9: the works. Much of that money has been allocated but
Speaker 9: not necessarily spent, and a lot of that's not necessarily
Speaker 9: going to be pulled back. And the reindustrialization that bringing
Speaker 9: manufacturing back to the United States. A lot of those
Speaker 9: plans are in process, they had to work through local permitting,
Speaker 9: and we don't think they're going to be turned back.
Speaker 9: You've also got infrastructure spent, so there's a lot of
Speaker 9: reasons to think through that. But you've also got the
Speaker 9: notion where if you go back and look over the
Speaker 9: last twenty or thirty years, the industrial component of the
Speaker 9: S and P is shrunk, and given the attention and
Speaker 9: the spending, we're focusing on that sector or those sectors.
Speaker 9: We expect you'll see them expand and perhaps as a
Speaker 9: percentage of the S and P as well as the
Speaker 9: leadership shifts to a more broad group of participating industry.
Speaker 5: Carol, when you look at your portfolio, do you need
Speaker 5: to change anything if Donald Trump wins this election?
Speaker 9: We're feeling pretty comfortable about where the portfolios are, and
Speaker 9: a lot of it would depend on if mister Trump
Speaker 9: wins the election and what does the composition of House
Speaker 9: and Senate look like. So there's a big piece of that,
Speaker 9: and we typically have always advised people not necessarily to
Speaker 9: trade on potential who wins who doesn't. You know, the
Speaker 9: theory have been, for example, that energy stocks should do
Speaker 9: better under Trump presidency than a Biden presidency, but the
Speaker 9: opposite to be the fact. So building sturdy portfolios for
Speaker 9: intermediate long term investment always is the wise and being
Speaker 9: able to adjust your tweak at the margins after we
Speaker 9: see what the outcome is.
Speaker 5: There.
Speaker 9: We might make some adjustments, but most likely not because
Speaker 9: we tend to build really sturdy portfolios and think the
Speaker 9: economy is going to do quite well under either president.
Speaker 4: All right, Carol, thank you so much for joining us
Speaker 4: as always Kyle Schleich, chief investment Officer for Bemo Family Office.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 6: We've got Matthew Miller sitting in for Alex Steele.
Speaker 5: Here.
Speaker 4: I'm Paul Sweeney. We're live here in our Bloomberg Interactive
Speaker 4: Broker Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube's ahead over to
Speaker 4: YouTube dot com search Bloomberg Podcast, and that's where you
Speaker 4: will find us. Matt you want to talk about evs.
Speaker 5: I would love to. Yeah.
Speaker 6: Okay.
Speaker 4: It's great timing that you're here, because we today we're
Speaker 4: gonna talk a little bit about EV's with our good
Speaker 4: friend Corey Kanter. He's the lead US Electric Vehicle Analyst. Yes,
Speaker 4: there is such a thing. At Bloomberg and New Energy Finance,
Speaker 4: they prefer bn EF.
Speaker 6: I don't care.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 6: He joins us here on our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio.
Speaker 6: Corey give us a state of the market.
Speaker 4: These days about where we are in this long evolution
Speaker 4: from you know, internal combustion engines to getting to an
Speaker 4: all electric world.
Speaker 6: Where kind of are we on that spectrum today? Yeah,
Speaker 6: we're We're in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 11: We're in a bit of i'd say a bumpy moment,
Speaker 11: bumpy first half of the year. If we step back
Speaker 11: and look at twenty twenty three compared to twenty twenty two,
Speaker 11: you saw in the US about fifty percent year on
Speaker 11: year growth for electric vehicles in the US. First half
Speaker 11: of this year, you're looking more at that kind of
Speaker 11: ten to fifteen percent, depending on where you get your numbers.
Speaker 5: We were fifty percent growth last year and we're fifteen
Speaker 5: percent this year.
Speaker 11: So basically, if you take out the largest automaker, Tesla,
Speaker 11: which has had a very difficult first half of this year,
Speaker 11: you're still seeing amongst the automakers, your high endie your
Speaker 11: Ford thirty forty percent year on year growth, more.
Speaker 5: In the trajectory of what we saw last year.
Speaker 11: But Tesla's stagnation and kind of i'd say aging lineup
Speaker 11: has brought down that US average more to that kind
Speaker 11: of ten to twenty percent.
Speaker 5: Well, and elon Trump's pandering love for Elon Musk's pandering
Speaker 5: love for Donald Trump. Did you listen to that interview
Speaker 5: the other day? I think interviews the wrong word. Did
Speaker 5: you listen to that conversation conversation? I mean it was
Speaker 5: pretty crazy. Trump was like, you make great cars, but
Speaker 5: we don't all need electric vehicles, and Musk didn't even
Speaker 5: really go go up against them.
Speaker 11: I saw some clips from the conversation. I think less
Speaker 11: of the overall listening. I'm on Twitter maybe too much,
Speaker 11: but more for sports and less for spaces. With Tesla
Speaker 11: in particular, there's been some challenges in California, as Bloomberg
Speaker 11: News his own down to Hall has covered. You've seen quarter,
Speaker 11: you know, on quarter reduction of overall sales compared.
Speaker 6: To the previous year.
Speaker 11: So Tesla may have a California problem. Actually, my sister
Speaker 11: just got a Tesla Model Why, which continues to be
Speaker 11: the best selling vehicle amongst TVs, and Ludlow.
Speaker 5: Just got one, the co host of Bloomberg Technology, I mean,
Speaker 5: Marian just got one, who runs the makeup room back here.
Speaker 5: It's a hot vehicle in terms of sales, right, but
Speaker 5: it's not I guess, helping the overall number.
Speaker 11: It's also they haven't released a new vehicle excluding the
Speaker 11: cyber truck, which has had very limited production, and all
Speaker 11: of those vehicles over one hundred thousand dollars. That kind
Speaker 11: of expected more affordable Tesla, which you know, if you
Speaker 11: talk to me a year ago, we would have expected
Speaker 11: in twenty twenty five, has been kicked back to you know,
Speaker 11: a couple of years afterwards. Tesla is aiming to introduce
Speaker 11: some low cost models, but I think, just like anything,
Speaker 11: Tesla's a moving target.
Speaker 5: It's pretty low cost. You can get into a model.
Speaker 3: Why.
Speaker 5: I think after all rebates are said and done, for
Speaker 5: about thirty four grand, which you know it's not less
Speaker 5: than thirty I know that's where they want to go,
Speaker 5: but it's near as damn it to it. It's a
Speaker 5: problem though, when the governor of California asks people please
Speaker 5: not to charge your electric vehicles because the grid can't
Speaker 5: handle it, right, I mean, can we really get much
Speaker 5: bigger if we're already warning people not to charge.
Speaker 11: I think I'm a you know, it's going to continue
Speaker 11: to be I think a challenge for electric vehicles in
Speaker 11: this particular year. That being said, California has had a
Speaker 11: lot of batter storage, right and if you look at
Speaker 11: how they're handling their grid, it's completely different than three
Speaker 11: four years ago. Utilities have to get more I think structured.
Speaker 11: I'm more concerned about EV charging on the public side
Speaker 11: compared to the vva G element of it. But sohos California,
Speaker 11: so goes the nation. They've also had a stagnation there
Speaker 11: around twenty five percent EV shriff sale in the first
Speaker 11: half of this year. That's pretty much where they were
Speaker 11: at at the end of last year.
Speaker 6: Really high, Yeah, it is high.
Speaker 5: Are we seeing more chargers put in? I live in Scarsdale,
Speaker 5: and I've had problems with multiple EV charging stations either
Speaker 5: broken or too full. It would make sense to me
Speaker 5: for every gas station owner to just put in a
Speaker 5: couple chargers, but they don't seem to be doing it.
Speaker 11: There is a challenge with what's called demand charges, which
Speaker 11: is then pulling from the grid. It may theoretically sound
Speaker 11: like a great idea, but if you're adding for those
Speaker 11: grid upgrades and those additional costs, it might not be
Speaker 11: worth it for the gas station operator. I think the
Speaker 11: good news is a lot of the federal money hasn't
Speaker 11: been spent. I think there's been a misconception that you know,
Speaker 11: the five billion dollars the nationally V infrastructure program has
Speaker 11: actually gone out. It's gone to states, and they have
Speaker 11: to actually begin to deploy those chargers. So it's it's
Speaker 11: still moving too slow. In terms of the consumer, they
Speaker 11: want to see a charging network that they feel comfortable
Speaker 11: with them. Until you get to that point, you can
Speaker 11: hardly say that it's going well enough. You're also seeing
Speaker 11: this kind of NACS North American Charging Standard transition, the
Speaker 11: Tesla supercharging network that has also been stymied by all
Speaker 11: the firings of that supercharging team. So it's messy and
Speaker 11: bumpy here in the US. I think in terms of
Speaker 11: good news, we can point out the Inflation Reduction Act
Speaker 11: investments beginning to actually come online and bear fruit if
Speaker 11: we want to talk about that too.
Speaker 6: Samantha writes in and says, is hybrid the way to go?
Speaker 11: Oh okay, Well, hybrid hybrids have done well in the
Speaker 11: first half of this year. You're looking at Toyota even
Speaker 11: aiming to go at full hybrid. I think plug in
Speaker 11: hybrids have maybe been overhyped in terms of the kind
Speaker 11: of focus and attention that's when you have both the
Speaker 11: battery electric engine and the kind of gas engine. There's
Speaker 11: not too many models besides the Jeep Wrangler P have
Speaker 11: that does well, so wait and see. I think both
Speaker 11: and hybrid are going to play a major role in
Speaker 11: the US market going forward. I think with plug and hybrid,
Speaker 11: you need them to get a lot better.
Speaker 2: I think.
Speaker 5: I mean, my wife had the Volvo XC nine d T,
Speaker 5: a plug in hybrid for two years.
Speaker 6: Doesn't have anymore.
Speaker 5: That was a lease and we got we got out
Speaker 5: of that lease. But she loved it because for the
Speaker 5: most part she was just around town on electric power
Speaker 5: the whole time. In fact, in the first year that
Speaker 5: we had the car, she only filled it up with
Speaker 5: gas twice.
Speaker 11: Yeah, that's pretty remarkable.
Speaker 5: But is that like a niche use case or I mean,
Speaker 5: I feel like there's a lot of suburban that's.
Speaker 11: Probably the idealized use case right of a smart PEF driver.
Speaker 11: And I think when we've done our reports and analysis
Speaker 11: on pvs, just as you have the more savvy BEV
Speaker 11: drivers battery electric vehicle drivers to you know, the more
Speaker 11: mass market, it doesn't mean that future PF drivers would
Speaker 11: would drive that way. They might just say, oh, we're
Speaker 11: going to fill it up with gas because we're used
Speaker 11: to it with the hybrid experience. What we want to
Speaker 11: see more of is in China, the all electric mode
Speaker 11: is about twice the volume weighted average all electric mode
Speaker 11: here in the US. So you want to see more
Speaker 11: of those kind of like Toyota, you have ranged fifty
Speaker 11: miles forty miles less of this like eighteen because then
Speaker 11: are you really going to fill it up on electric.
Speaker 5: My favorite hybrid that I've test driven recently for my podcast,
Speaker 5: which is called Hot Pursuit exactly. You can download that
Speaker 5: on Bloomberg dot com or wherever your podcast.
Speaker 6: Of course.
Speaker 5: I drove the Corvette E Ray really, which has the
Speaker 5: six point two liters V eight behind you and an
Speaker 5: electric motor on the front axle, and that eliminates any
Speaker 5: kind of lag that you might get, like zero to ten.
Speaker 5: So as a result, six hundred and fifty five host
Speaker 5: power zero to sixty and two and a half seconds.
Speaker 6: Wow, how often you need to do that? Of course?
Speaker 6: Cory Canter, thanks so much for joining US.
Speaker 4: Corey Canter, lead US Electric Vehicle analyst at BNF.
Speaker 6: He's still talking.
Speaker 4: I'm not going there, but these guys can go out
Speaker 4: and talk about it all they want, you know, but
Speaker 4: maybe I'll go hybrid at some point.
Speaker 5: I think it's the way to go. I think it's
Speaker 5: the way forward for now, until we deal with the
Speaker 5: grid and the charging issues. You know, depends on your
Speaker 5: specific use case.
Speaker 6: You're not driving the Volvo anymore.
Speaker 5: Way, No, we switched over to uh. I'm actually I
Speaker 5: wish we'd kept it. I'm a little bit disappointed.
Speaker 6: All right, we have to figure that out.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 4: We're here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. We're streaming
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Speaker 4: We have a season professional like a trader investor, like
Speaker 4: a person who does this stuff for a living, in
Speaker 4: studio Frank Moncam Senior Portfolio Manager and Timo in our
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.
Speaker 6: Frank, what are you doing? In this market. Where do
Speaker 6: you see opportunities today?
Speaker 4: I mean, I got the FEDS going out to Wyoming
Speaker 4: or something and they're gonna have some economists out there.
Speaker 6: What do you how are you approaching this market these days?
Speaker 10: Well, thanks thanks for having me on today. You know,
Speaker 10: I think that you know, the FED here is is
Speaker 10: probably getting everything he needs here to be able to
Speaker 10: pivot a little bit into into the easing cycle. We
Speaker 10: were looking at is just trying to be mindful of
Speaker 10: the volatility. It's still plague in markets here. I mean,
Speaker 10: we get into this Jackson Hole meeting at the end
Speaker 10: of the week with a FED that's basically going to
Speaker 10: look at you know, what's going on in finishing conditions,
Speaker 10: right obviously we know to September rate cut that's not
Speaker 10: baked ten and for for for obvious reasons, in plats
Speaker 10: come down. We've seen this decceleration and growth. You know,
Speaker 10: we had a little bit of an NFP scare here,
Speaker 10: but you know, we got we got to remind remind
Speaker 10: ourselves that this market has been super bowl though in
Speaker 10: terms of pricing. You know, the easing cycle. We went
Speaker 10: from seven cuts in the first quarter yeh to about
Speaker 10: three and a half. I mean it was five and
Speaker 10: a half two weeks ago. You know, I think one
Speaker 10: thing I really want to watch is the FED is
Speaker 10: really not going to you know, come out with anything
Speaker 10: really decisive as far as the pace of right cuts
Speaker 10: between nine end of the year. But it's mostly there
Speaker 10: the tone with which they describe the current environment. So
Speaker 10: what I want to keep my eyes on really is UH,
Speaker 10: what they're going to say about UH financial conditions easing
Speaker 10: UH and potentially our star right and you know, it's
Speaker 10: it's it's really one of those things where in terms
Speaker 10: of what we're seeing in the markets and how we
Speaker 10: should be positioning with with this spread meeting and and
Speaker 10: also the d n C. Right, there's there's there's a
Speaker 10: couple of vital catalysts that are on that kind of
Speaker 10: this week. It's it's really to think about the fact
Speaker 10: that we're at a very liquid, you know market right now.
Speaker 10: I was joking with friends of the weekend saying, you know,
Speaker 10: the liquidity has migrated away from capital markets into into
Speaker 10: rose and at this time of the.
Speaker 6: Year, it's typical.
Speaker 10: So you know, the the the NFB print print for
Speaker 10: for August is going to be very critical. My my, my,
Speaker 10: view in this market is that the way that we've
Speaker 10: seen the Vics kind of retrace so quickly, to me,
Speaker 10: it's not really a sign a healthy market. So I
Speaker 10: continue to want to be watchful of volatility ahead of
Speaker 10: us with the election cycle, with a geopolitical cycle, and
Speaker 10: I think with the Vicks having collapsed basically from sixty
Speaker 10: five to about sub fifteen today, I think it's an
Speaker 10: opportunity to look for some downslaw protection again as we
Speaker 10: get into the fall.
Speaker 12: You know, Frank, you mentioned that sort of typical August
Speaker 12: liquidity problem that we've run into a million times before.
Speaker 12: Paul and I were talking about it before. Is that
Speaker 12: the main story of that correction we saw from you know,
Speaker 12: the first half of August that in the carry trade.
Speaker 6: Was there anything else more there?
Speaker 12: Do you think, you know, we're back almost.
Speaker 5: To where we were before that that really nasty sell off.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think definitely. I mean it had to do
Speaker 10: with it. But I also think that, you know, I've
Speaker 10: been on the record saying that you know, you know,
Speaker 10: protection was really really cheap. I thought volatility was cheap.
Speaker 10: I thought, you know, skew was really cheap. It did materialize,
Speaker 10: it was shortly, but it did materialize. But to your point,
Speaker 10: I think there's also the fact that the market is
Speaker 10: really over extending to the to the to the upside
Speaker 10: in terms of positioning, right, I mean, positioning was super overstretched,
Speaker 10: not just for the broader market, but also for you know,
Speaker 10: within the mega megacap tech sector. And you know, whenever
Speaker 10: you get you get to these levels, even with a
Speaker 10: bullish market, you're kind of due for a bit of
Speaker 10: a of correction. And and it's funny when the market
Speaker 10: is is really overextended on technicals, which was the case,
Speaker 10: because positioning is a technical indicator. All it takes is
Speaker 10: just one little technical place to happen for things to unravel.
Speaker 10: And I think that's what took place in addition to
Speaker 10: you know the obviously the the the GPUI carry onlind
Speaker 10: and and also just you know, the SAM rule has
Speaker 10: has been triggered for a for a lot of augos
Speaker 10: out there that that trade around these types of signals.
Speaker 10: I mean, all these things kind of all happened at
Speaker 10: the same time and in a period of time where
Speaker 10: the liquidity is very thin, So you know, I think
Speaker 10: it made a lot of sense for the market to
Speaker 10: pull back the way it did.
Speaker 4: How about on the commodities. I mean a lot of
Speaker 4: people to say buy gold and short everything else. What
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, Mike McGall and I'm coding.
Speaker 10: Yeah, sure, yeah, Mike, Mike's Mike's a front I you know,
Speaker 10: I it's hard to disagree with that, right, I mean,
Speaker 10: when you look at the commodities complex where we are
Speaker 10: right now, when you look at things like oil and copper,
Speaker 10: you're still getting a lot of mixed signals. You know,
Speaker 10: for the take the case of oil for instance, you know,
Speaker 10: we we've we've got we've stayed into this range on
Speaker 10: let's use brent as a as a benchmark, between seventy
Speaker 10: five and ninety dollars a bow, and you can you
Speaker 10: can clearly see that it's it's it's it's a range
Speaker 10: that's that's been basically kept intact because you've got offsetting caalysts.
Speaker 10: So it's really market that's really.
Speaker 6: Hard to read.
Speaker 10: On the one side, you don't really want to short
Speaker 10: it because there's a cycular shortage of investment and crewd
Speaker 10: and all that stuff. But it's cyclical, is really fair
Speaker 10: fairly bearish, to be honest with you, And you know, opek,
Speaker 10: Now the OPEC put to me, is getting softer and
Speaker 10: softer and moving lower and lower. I think the Saudis
Speaker 10: need cash. I mean there's a little bit of a
Speaker 10: fiscal distress in Saudi's right now. I mean they've run
Speaker 10: they've only run a fiscal surplus, you know one of
Speaker 10: the last ten years, says a lot. So for them
Speaker 10: now it's it's no longer trying to fight you know,
Speaker 10: the the you know, the flat price as much as
Speaker 10: they used to. But when we look at the market
Speaker 10: like gold, you know, it's really all starts, you know,
Speaker 10: being online. You know, there's there's I think there's additional
Speaker 10: momentum here with central banks continue to buy. You know,
Speaker 10: this Chinese I'm hearing are kind of looking for a
Speaker 10: little bit of a pull back, you know, ten to
Speaker 10: fifteen percent to probably add add more, you know, the
Speaker 10: PBOC that is, which is the main buyer in this market.
Speaker 10: So you know, gold looks really really good, and only
Speaker 10: thing there it's it's it's a bit it's a slightly
Speaker 10: overextended to be upside, but there could be momentum there.
Speaker 10: So I think the strategy really in commodities is I
Speaker 10: would want to ride this momentum and and you know,
Speaker 10: potentially it keeps on dry powder on the side to
Speaker 10: add on dips and also just just continue to look
Speaker 10: for a relative value of dis locations within commodities. You know,
Speaker 10: you know oil versus gold as in bullish bullish gold
Speaker 10: kind of bearish or oil. There is these kind of
Speaker 10: RB plays, and you know gold versus copper also. Yeah,
Speaker 10: so you know, I think I think oil gold here
Speaker 10: is the you know, the main game in town, and
Speaker 10: the way to play really is to perhaps look for
Speaker 10: dips and look for ob players versus other commodities.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 12: To get back to the FED for a minute, you know,
Speaker 12: I'm looking at our world interest rate probability function. It
Speaker 12: basically just susses out how many interest rate cuts the
Speaker 12: Fed funds futures traders are expecting.
Speaker 6: It's look at it, like three and a half, maybe
Speaker 6: almost four cuts this morning.
Speaker 12: Yeah, yeah, by the end of you know, and we
Speaker 12: only have three meetings coming up, so that's even thinking
Speaker 12: people are thinking we'll get a fifty basis points at
Speaker 12: one of them, I guess. But what's the risk there,
Speaker 12: I mean, is the is the market in Fed fund's
Speaker 12: futures just bracing for more bad eco news? And is there,
Speaker 12: you know, a risk one way or the other that
Speaker 12: they'll get this wrong.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I you know, I thought five and a half
Speaker 10: cuts two weeks ago was over stretched. In fact, we're
Speaker 10: we're kind of we kind of took the other side
Speaker 10: of that, which is worked out so far. I mean
Speaker 10: we're down to three point eight that's roughly almost four
Speaker 10: cuts between and the end of the year. I think
Speaker 10: the real wager here is around the August jobs data.
Speaker 10: Right if we were to break the one hundred k
Speaker 10: jobs mark and the unemployment rate to take up maybe
Speaker 10: to four point four percent or four point five percent,
Speaker 10: and I think, you know, there's a chance that we
Speaker 10: could get a fifty basis point cut in September. And
Speaker 10: I think what the market is really getting at here
Speaker 10: is that if we get fifty in September, we're probably
Speaker 10: going to get fifty on the next one because the
Speaker 10: Fed then realizes that maybe it's a little bit of
Speaker 10: mind curve. So I think this whole wager is around
Speaker 10: this August NFP, which my my view on that is
Speaker 10: based on the seasonality of the data. I think the
Speaker 10: July print could could easily have been it could have
Speaker 10: easily been a bit of a an out liar here
Speaker 10: because of seasonality right.
Speaker 6: In Houston to correct, and then some of the heat waves.
Speaker 10: There's been a lot of you know, activities being canceled
Speaker 10: in the summer because of heat waves in a couple
Speaker 10: of states. So that's all playing into that. So I
Speaker 10: think it's one of those things where it could be
Speaker 10: kind of almost binary, where we either get the fifty
Speaker 10: to fifty twenty five, which gets you to the to
Speaker 10: the what you know, what works is w rb S
Speaker 10: pricing right now, or we might even get to a
Speaker 10: point where we only get one or two cuts, right.
Speaker 10: It could be one of those things where it's kind
Speaker 10: of if if we realize July was a blip and
Speaker 10: we get it one, we might get it one and
Speaker 10: done with. I FED just makes an adjustment cuts because
Speaker 10: I think this thing is super telegraphed. They can't really
Speaker 10: backtrack on the September cut. I think it was spoop markets,
Speaker 10: which is not what the FED wants to do. So
Speaker 10: I think it might just deliver a twenty five and
Speaker 10: kind of wait and see post election if that's if
Speaker 10: we get a strong or decent NFB, you know in
Speaker 10: the early.
Speaker 12: So no taking off on the Friday's payroll day. No,
Speaker 12: no summer Friday. Summer Fridays are over.
Speaker 4: I'm for me, all right, Frank, thanks so much for
Speaker 4: joining us. Frank Monham, he's a senior portfolio manager and
Speaker 4: then team off. This whole money management thing doesn't work
Speaker 4: after you you get a voice for radio. I mean
Speaker 4: that's like, I mean incredible. I just told my producer,
Speaker 4: let's get this guy in right.
Speaker 6: In our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. We appreciate getting some
Speaker 6: of his time.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card Play and
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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: Paul Swynn here and Michael Reagan sitting and for Alex
Speaker 4: Steele said, day, Stay Lauder, el's a ticker symbol. Stocks
Speaker 4: down like thirty five percent that year to date turnaround
Speaker 4: change in management. Red Brown Joints earnings reporter for Bloomberg News,
Speaker 4: read what's going on with that stay Launder?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 1: I think today you know, the highest level is just
Speaker 1: like this is a clean slate I think for this company.
Speaker 1: We saw obviously CEO stepping away at the end of
Speaker 1: this year. CFO is actually also leaving on the same time,
Speaker 1: so you know, a new management team. And also if
Speaker 1: we look at the guidance that they gave out for
Speaker 1: their fist with twenty twenty five today, it came in
Speaker 1: much lower than what an elks we're expecting and else
Speaker 1: we're expecting to see constant currency growth. They were expecting
Speaker 1: to see earnings about the whole dollar higher than what
Speaker 1: the company guided for. So again just kind of setting
Speaker 1: a low bar for this company going forward, clean slate,
Speaker 1: let's go from here, I think is kind of the
Speaker 1: message that they're going to be trying to change the
Speaker 1: narrative to going forward.
Speaker 12: Red How big of a deal is China to Estay Lauder.
Speaker 12: I know they have a pretty decent sized business. There
Speaker 12: was that part of the sort of disappointing results this quarter.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think that is the main culprit
Speaker 1: of the issues that they're they're going through. I mean,
Speaker 1: we've seen throughout this earning season a lot of these companies,
Speaker 1: especially in the luxury space, that have tied their fortunes
Speaker 1: to China are paying the price of that at the moment.
Speaker 1: So China came in really soft again this quarter and
Speaker 1: als we're expecting for around three or four percent growth
Speaker 1: in the Asia region, which is dominated by China obviously,
Speaker 1: and what they saw was a four percent contraction in
Speaker 1: that market. So yeah, again paying the paying the price
Speaker 1: for the investment in that region. As China sales demand
Speaker 1: for these luxury products, whether it's LVMH's goods or you know, fashion,
Speaker 1: anything like that. And then also skincare, fragrance, things like
Speaker 1: that are also weak as the demand waivers there.
Speaker 4: Just reading some of the reporting on this here company
Speaker 4: in the midst of a turnaround, I'm not sure necessarily
Speaker 4: what it has to be turned around, but the stock's
Speaker 4: down thirty five percent, so that tells me that a
Speaker 4: year to date, So that tells me whatever they're doing
Speaker 4: ain't working.
Speaker 6: So when you get it, presumably a new management team
Speaker 6: coming in.
Speaker 4: Do they want somebody from inside or maybe some fresh
Speaker 4: set of eyes coming from the outside.
Speaker 6: What's the thinking there?
Speaker 1: I think you know, both the CEO CFO have been
Speaker 1: there for over a decade now, so I mean it's
Speaker 1: always good to have somebody within the company knows the company,
Speaker 1: but it might be time for some fresh eyes.
Speaker 6: The company has.
Speaker 1: Missed guidance or cut guidance several times over the last
Speaker 1: few years. Analysts start to get when that happens, analysts
Speaker 1: starts to feel they starts to lose comp It's in
Speaker 1: in that management group's ability to understand or grapple with
Speaker 1: the business dynamics at the moment. So I think there
Speaker 1: could be some calls for an outside look. The company
Speaker 1: says they're already undertaking the next CEO search. Obviously they're
Speaker 1: going to say they're they're considering internal and external candidates.
Speaker 1: But yeah, definitely might be time for a for a
Speaker 1: fresh look.
Speaker 12: I'm smirking here a little bit looking back on a
Speaker 12: story we had out in February on Esta Lauter, where
Speaker 12: CEO Fabrizio Freda said, I'm not going anywhere precedent, but Red,
Speaker 12: you know, I don't know how much of an expert
Speaker 12: you are on the beauty care market and skincare, but
Speaker 12: you know, are they an outlier here? As far as
Speaker 12: you know, you go through a million earnings reports every
Speaker 12: quarter year? Are they are they an outlier as far
Speaker 12: as that you know, consumer discretionary space or are we
Speaker 12: seeing similar stories from other you know, companies that depend
Speaker 12: on I don't know whether it's beauty care or you know,
Speaker 12: high fashion, you know, is is there.
Speaker 5: A theme here?
Speaker 1: I don't know what gave it away that I'm not
Speaker 1: ANX but you have good skin. No, I don't think
Speaker 1: they're an outlier. Look, I think it's you see something
Speaker 1: for me. The similar trend that I'm picking up across
Speaker 1: all of the retail, even you know, something as far
Speaker 1: away as home depot is that people are focused on needs,
Speaker 1: not once and this luxury space skincare especially.
Speaker 5: Is a want, it's not a need.
Speaker 1: A fragrance is a want, not a need. So consumers
Speaker 1: are cutting back where they can, whether it's you know,
Speaker 1: fixing your house up or yeah, making yourself appear a
Speaker 1: little bit better, it doesn't matter. That's that's kind of
Speaker 1: the the macro pressure is gonna win out in this
Speaker 1: this this this scenario.
Speaker 4: But as our good friend Samantha writes in Alex Steele
Speaker 4: has always told us that you have to invest in
Speaker 4: your face, which she does and Michael John Tucker and
Speaker 4: I do not.
Speaker 12: So I mean, clearly, my face is a value stock
Speaker 12: right now.
Speaker 4: But all I know is during the lockdown across the street,
Speaker 4: the Spore store packed.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, no matter what, people need to get
Speaker 6: that stuff.
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, I guess in the pandemic people had
Speaker 12: a few extra bucks they weren't spending on concerts and movies.
Speaker 6: It was just it shocked me how strong that category is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then right after the pandemic as well, they
Speaker 1: did really well because people were like, I'm.
Speaker 6: Emerging from the world.
Speaker 1: I want to make sure, Yeah, I haven't shaped my
Speaker 1: face in six months, I might as well get moisturized
Speaker 1: or something.
Speaker 6: But yeah, it's there.
Speaker 1: There's trends have just fallen off now and they haven't
Speaker 1: really returned to like pre pandemic.
Speaker 6: Levels of growth.
Speaker 10: You know, excuse me.
Speaker 1: Este later was a was a company that was like
Speaker 1: really you know, flying into the pandemic and through the pandemic.
Speaker 1: And then yeah, just the the fall off of China
Speaker 1: and then the United States as well is kind of
Speaker 1: not getting a lot of attention at the moment. But
Speaker 1: like US sales contracted as well this quarter. It's maybe
Speaker 1: hidden because there's been so much emphasis on China. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but those are the two biggest markets and both are
Speaker 1: are are underperforming I think at the moment.
Speaker 12: So it still seems like China's consumer economy is a
Speaker 12: bit of a black box to analyst, Do you find
Speaker 12: a lot of surprise is either upside or downside on
Speaker 12: companies as far as their their business in China goes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's hard to get a read because if you think,
Speaker 1: like there was so much worry and again jumping around here,
Speaker 1: but I just connecting all the different kind of earnings threads,
Speaker 1: Like there was so much worry going into Apple's report
Speaker 1: of like where where's the Chinese consumer? Are they buying iPhones?
Speaker 1: Things like that? You know, it's the same dollar that's
Speaker 1: going towards these things. But yeah, it's really hard to
Speaker 1: get a read because Apple well performs, Esday Lauder underperforms.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it is.
Speaker 1: It is just a kind of you know, most of
Speaker 1: the analysts, they said here in New York, they're just
Speaker 1: looking at data points, so it is kind of a
Speaker 1: tough read.
Speaker 4: I'm looking at the stock of Esday Lauder and looking
Speaker 4: at the chart here at Pete at about three hundred
Speaker 4: and seventy dollars literally on the last trading day of
Speaker 4: twenty twenty one, down seventy five percent since then, Wow,
Speaker 4: from three seventy to here we are at ninety four,
Speaker 4: So a big move here, And I guess the next
Speaker 4: you know, in Vidia is coming up.
Speaker 6: That's still not for another week or so, right.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's next Wednesday.
Speaker 6: I mean, they're so late in the earning cycle. I
Speaker 6: don't know why. I'm sure there's a story there, but man,
Speaker 6: it feels like the market's going to be hanging on
Speaker 6: that one.
Speaker 4: Are the expectations as high as they always have been
Speaker 4: for in video?
Speaker 1: Yeah, they will, of course, they will be flying extremely
Speaker 1: high into that that report. And then if we think
Speaker 1: kind of about the AI story of this earning season
Speaker 1: is that people have been maybe investing a little bit
Speaker 1: too much. We're not seeing the growth that we would
Speaker 1: have liked out of those investments. But of course in
Speaker 1: videos on the other side of that, they're one, they're
Speaker 1: the ones receiving a lot of that investment. So could
Speaker 1: be again kind of the outperformer of of of that group.
Speaker 1: But yeah, definitely very high expectations. And yeah, with high
Speaker 1: expectations there's high risk as well.
Speaker 12: Anything else on your radar read that you're looking for.
Speaker 12: You know, we're in that kind of weird period for
Speaker 12: earnings where you only get the stragglers. Is there anyone
Speaker 12: else we should really keep an eye on.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's just it's it's continue with the
Speaker 1: retail stocks over the next week especially.
Speaker 6: I'm just trying to think.
Speaker 1: There's like a thousand names running through my mind now.
Speaker 4: But the retailers, they tend to come late in the cycle. Yeah,
Speaker 4: it'll be good, good read on the consumer. And then again,
Speaker 4: as you mentioned that, the the Nvidia coming up, this
Speaker 4: can be huge, not just for like Nvidia itself or
Speaker 4: the tech stocks in general, but I think the market overall.
Speaker 12: Yeah, it really seems like it's the will show us
Speaker 12: the money phase of the AI craze right now, So
Speaker 12: you know, you know, an end video might be the
Speaker 12: outlier there.
Speaker 6: But all right, we'll say on top of it, I'm
Speaker 6: sure we'll be talking to you.
Speaker 4: Red Red Brown, Ernie's reporter Bloomberg News, joining us live
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