1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern. 4 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 3: On Affle Car Playing and broud Otto with the Bloomberg 5 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 3: Business app. 6 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 7 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 2: us live on YouTube. 8 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:27,479 Speaker 4: All right, we'll get an M and a trade here today, 9 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 4: which I think it's near and dear to a lot 10 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 4: of folks that are particularly through seven eleven fans. I'm 11 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 4: a wah wah guy myself. 12 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:34,919 Speaker 5: Crystal cover that story as well this morning. I mean 13 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:39,879 Speaker 5: seven to eleven has the Icy, which I like versus 14 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 5: the Slurpie. 15 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 6: What's the slur The Slurpy is? I think. 16 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 5: Grainier? You know, the Icy is a lot smoother. Yep, 17 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 5: And I'm a bigger fan of the Icy. Had one 18 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 5: last night that my drive home from Gray State of Ohio. 19 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 6: You were in Ohio? Yeah, what'd you drive? 20 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 5: I drove back in my Dodge Challenger RT scat pack 21 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 5: wide body on I eighty. Yeah that's a good cruiser. 22 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. Diana Rossettopania joints us here in our studios. 23 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:11,279 Speaker 4: She's a Bloomberg Intelligence consumer Staples Anos who is couch 24 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 4: Tard and why are they buying seven eleven for thirty 25 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 4: one billion dollars. 26 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 7: Well, Cushtard is the second largest convenience store in the 27 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 7: United States. They manage circle K, yes, and. 28 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 5: That's why they have a French name that sounds funny 29 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:31,040 Speaker 5: to American years. 30 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 7: Yes, it took me actually a while to be able 31 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 7: to pronounce their name. But yeah, so they're very inquisitive. 32 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 7: We're not that surprised that they are, you know, their stocks, 33 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 7: that they want to buy something. But sevent eleven is 34 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 7: actually a big name. There's valuations going from like fifty 35 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 7: billion dollars to as much as like eighty five billion dollars. 36 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 7: So for them to be able to do that, it's 37 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 7: it's quite impressive. If they are able to. 38 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 5: It's always surprising, I think to people who aren't in 39 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 5: the know that seven to eleven is owned by a 40 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 5: Japanese holding company, and I think they own Speedway as well. 41 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 5: These seem like such American brands. So does Circle K 42 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 5: and it's owned by a Canadian company. Is there going 43 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 5: to be anti trust issues here? 44 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 7: Well, for sure, the FDC, I mean, ask Kroger. They 45 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,519 Speaker 7: have been trying to purchase Albertson's for a couple of 46 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 7: years now. So if they actually come up with the 47 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 7: numbers and there's acceptance, I'm sure the FDC will have 48 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 7: something to say. Seven eleven has like about fourteen percent 49 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 7: of market share in the United States, whereas Skushtar with 50 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 7: their Circle K brand, they have about five percent. So 51 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 7: it definitely will be you know, up for again. 52 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 6: I'm a wah wah guy, but you know I can. 53 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 5: See is wah wah just like a New Jersey. 54 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 6: No, no, but it is. 55 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 7: What is it's the It's in the Northeast. There's mostly 56 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 7: in the Northeast. So but yeah, there's. 57 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 4: Explained to me this convenient store business. What's the economics 58 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 4: of a convenience store? 59 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 6: I just see people going in and out all the time. 60 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 6: What's the economics? 61 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 7: Well, basically, they want you to go in for your gas. 62 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 7: They're very competitive in gas prices. Fuel margins have been 63 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 7: improven in the past few years. Kush Star actually has 64 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 7: about forty cents per gallon in terms of fuel margins. 65 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 7: But what they're making money on is when you go 66 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 7: into the store, particularly if you buy their sandwich sandwiches. 67 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 7: The margins for that is like fifty percent. 68 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 6: It's true. 69 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 5: I was, by the way, I was filling up on 70 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 5: the way there and back for more than four dollars 71 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 5: and fifty cents a gallon. 72 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 6: O because you're putting in the super duper high. 73 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 5: I go with ninety three, and then I go in 74 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 5: and I pick up a Snickers bar for my kid brother, 75 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 5: and I got I don't know, like a TwixT. Each 76 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 5: of those candy bars was more than two dollars and 77 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 5: fifty cents. 78 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 6: That's margin there. 79 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 5: And I'm starting to feel like a really old man, 80 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 5: you know, because when I was a kid, fifty cents 81 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 5: is what you paid for these things. 82 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 6: So are these good businesses? 83 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 7: I mean, oh yeah, if they're buying, I'm sure you know. 84 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 7: They they they think that there's some good business. I mean, 85 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 7: Kushtart has Usually they they do big acquisitions. The last 86 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 7: acquisition that they did was for eleven billion dollars for 87 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 7: the total energy is in the in Europe, but they 88 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 7: usually in the US they usually buy smaller operators. For example. 89 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 7: Also this morning they announced that they bought get Go 90 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 7: from Giant Eagle. So that's another convenience store which is 91 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 7: in the you know, with. 92 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 5: The delicious cold pork sandwich by the way. 93 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 7: Oh well, I actually haven't tried it. 94 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, I had one to go this weekend. H where's 95 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 5: the get go? I had them in Pennsylvania. 96 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's it's regional. 97 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, all. 98 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 6: Right, it's the Midwest. It's part of the world. 99 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:50,039 Speaker 3: I don't go to. 100 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 5: I skipped the what's the one you like the cracker barrel? 101 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 4: Cracker barrel, I declined, But you probably drove through past 102 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:57,159 Speaker 4: like one hundred of them month. 103 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 5: Yes, yes, a lot of that. And I used to 104 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 5: always stop because you get a books books on tape 105 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 5: at one and then you'd return it at the next 106 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 5: But you know, longer. 107 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 4: What else were seeing in your space than in a 108 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 4: retail space? What are some of the key things people 109 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 4: are looking atuse you cover a. 110 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,919 Speaker 7: Lot of retail, Yeah, I mean, obviously, this is like 111 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:16,599 Speaker 7: the biggest thing that has happened today. 112 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 5: It's one of the biggest deals of the year, right well, yeah, 113 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 5: even Dollars puts it like number two. 114 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:28,039 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, obviously the Kruger Albertson's acquisition. It's also 115 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 7: the talk of the town. There's like likelihood that it 116 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 7: might not happen. The FDC might object So what. 117 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 4: Are we going to hear about that deal, because we've 118 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 4: been talking about Kruger's and Albertson's for a long time. 119 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 7: Yeah, honestly, like it really depends on, you know, what 120 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 7: happens with the election and how you know, M and 121 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 7: A friendly the FDC will be afterwards, all. 122 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 4: Right, Well, seven to eleven by the numbers, and this 123 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 4: is according to Bloomberger reporting eighty five thousand stores. That's huge, 124 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 4: and they've got one hundred and fifty seven thousand employees. 125 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 6: That's a big business. Yeah, you know cushcharges. 126 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:04,039 Speaker 4: I mean it's cure Start's got a bigger valuation fifty 127 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 4: eight billion dollars valuation versus thirty eight for the seven 128 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 4: and eleven, so much higher valuation using that stock in cash, 129 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 4: I guess to get bigger. 130 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think, you know, definitely, I mean, obviously I 131 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 7: see this as an Asia play, to be honest with. 132 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 5: You, which we've seen more and more and more of, right, 133 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 5: I mean, if you look at activists investors involved in 134 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,559 Speaker 5: Japanese stocks, for example, it goes from fifteen and twenty 135 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 5: twenty two to twenty five last year to twenty eight 136 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,359 Speaker 5: so far this year, and we're only in the first half. 137 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:38,599 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean seven eleven has like thirty one percent 138 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:40,239 Speaker 7: of the Asia Pacific market share. 139 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 6: So yeah, now we're talking. 140 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 4: Now we're talking, Diana, Thank you so much for joining us. Diana, Orstopena, 141 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 4: another one I hired back in today. She's blossomed into 142 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 4: this great analyst. Very cool to see consumer staples analysts 143 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Intelligence joining us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, 144 00:06:56,640 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 4: not mailing it in from like Nantucket or dear Value. 145 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 5: Work from home. 146 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, so BI Management, we know what's going on. 147 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 148 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 149 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live 150 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 151 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 2: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 152 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 4: All right, our good friend Carl Icon in the news, 153 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 4: but I don't think for reasons he wants to be. 154 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 4: Crystal c joins us Bloomberg US Deals reporter Crystal. What's 155 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 4: going on with our good friend Carl Icon? He had 156 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 4: some some issues with the SEC. 157 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 8: I think, yeah, I think he's probably quite glad about 158 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 8: today's news This is like coming to an end something 159 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 8: that's hungover, like hangover his head on its friends for 160 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 8: a while. Today's news is that Hits firm and him 161 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 8: are settling a charge with the SEC and paying a 162 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 8: fine of two million dollars combined. And that is an 163 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 8: investigation on the back of the Hindenburg recent report from 164 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 8: twenty twenty three saying that they've inflated some of their 165 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,679 Speaker 8: asset values and quote unquote operate like a ponse scheme. 166 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 8: So this is actually in some way good news, even 167 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 8: though the stock doesn't quite reflect that today. 168 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 3: Yeah. 169 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 5: No, the stock took a hit I think was last 170 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 5: year in May when we first learned about these investigations, 171 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 5: and short sellers started questioning what carl Icon's loans were 172 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 5: really based on. Does this wrap it up? Is this 173 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 5: the end of it? 174 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 8: It looks like the end of it. So there are 175 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 8: two investigations, if you remember this. One is the SEC 176 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 8: investigation at settlement. The other one they had previously disclosed 177 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,839 Speaker 8: that they were contacted by the US Attorney's Office, and 178 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 8: today they put out a statement IEP and I competitive 179 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 8: statement saying that they haven't received any substantive communication from 180 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 8: the US Attorney's office since the initial approach, so they, 181 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 8: I guess you can take it as a good sign 182 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 8: no news and sometimes good news and off us reporter, 183 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 8: but for like them. 184 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 5: You know that fifty dollars company, you know, fifty dollars 185 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 5: plus and now it's a fifteen dollars company. 186 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 8: Yeah, all right, and shares it down today as well. 187 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 6: What's the all right? 188 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 4: I'm just looking at the stock here, as Matt saying, 189 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 4: it's down seven percent today, down about eight percent year 190 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 4: to date, and down thirty. 191 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 6: Percent over the trailing twelve months. So not a great 192 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 6: move there, Crystal. 193 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 4: Thanks so much for joining us, Crystal, see just giving 194 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 4: us the update there. Carl Icon settling it what is 195 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 4: for him, I'm sure a very small number, couple of 196 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 4: million dollars to settle some issues with. 197 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 6: The se c i EP. Carl Ion is eighty eight 198 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 6: years old. 199 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 5: Icon, he's in good shape for eighty eight. That is 200 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 5: still a very sharp guy. His company, I mean, this 201 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 5: is a diversified holding company. They hold automotive investments, energy, gaming, railcar, 202 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 5: food packaging, Marcus real estate, medals, home fashion. 203 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 6: Market cap seven point five billion dollars. 204 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 205 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Effocar. 206 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 3: Playing Android otto with the Bloomberg Business App. 207 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 208 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 2: us live on YouTube. 209 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 4: Matthew Miller sitting in for Al Steel today in our 210 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Dinner Actor Brokers Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube 211 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 4: as well as I hit over to YouTube dot com 212 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 4: and search Bloomberg Podcast and that's where you will find us. 213 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,679 Speaker 6: Green on the screen today. Boy, that two weeks. 214 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 4: Ago today when we had that big sell off and 215 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 4: that man fixed jumping above sixty, you know, we got 216 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 4: the vix back down below fifteen. It's just amazing the 217 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 4: round trip we've had. So I don't know what to 218 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 4: make of it, but I think our next guest might. 219 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 4: Carl Schleife, chief investment officer at a Bimoh Family office, 220 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 4: joined us via that Zoom thing. Carol, what's your opinion 221 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 4: on what we've seen over the past couple of weeks again, 222 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 4: starting with two weeks ago today when we had that 223 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 4: panic sell off. 224 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 9: Yeah, it's not necessarily unusual for August to be exceedingly volved. 225 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 9: All we've got a lot of senior people on the beach, 226 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 9: and it can very frequently lead to some choppy trading, 227 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 9: like we saw. It was a little eye popping back then, 228 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 9: but having lived through the nineteen eighty seven issue, which 229 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 9: was October, but still did a Friday to Monday, if 230 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 9: that Monday had been similar, it would have been down 231 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 9: nine thousand points on the Dow, not just a mere thousand. 232 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 5: That's great, but. 233 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 9: It's not unusual at all to see that kind of volatility. 234 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 9: I actually would have expected it to have to follow 235 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 9: through for a few days, and I wouldn't write off 236 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 9: that we're done seeing volatility, especially if we get into 237 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 9: Friday and people don't like what Paul says in the speech, 238 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,959 Speaker 9: and or we're just in between earnings and now we're 239 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 9: off a good earning seats and we don't have much 240 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 9: going until the Fed meets again after this week in September. 241 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 5: So well, we get to continuing claims out before that, 242 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 5: and it seems like every little data point has become 243 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 5: a big event for markets with I guess, you know, 244 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 5: low volume, that's that's going to happen. But what could 245 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 5: Powell say that would disappoint. 246 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 9: If he pushed off the likelihood of a September card, 247 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 9: because I think most of the expectations are you'll see 248 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 9: a cut in September. The question is just how much 249 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 9: twenty five basis points, fifty basis points will he be 250 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 9: able to structure commentary that actually, FED policy currently is 251 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 9: very restrictive given where the economic data is coming in. 252 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 9: And yes, the FED has made us all very data 253 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 9: dependent and data watchers on every single point trying to 254 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 9: figure out which way the Fed's going to go. But 255 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 9: there is a rationale and an ability for the FED 256 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,119 Speaker 9: to be able to say, hey, our policy is restrictive. 257 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 9: We could actually chunk it down a time or two 258 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,839 Speaker 9: and it wouldn't be indicative of a softening economy. You've 259 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 9: also got some retail numbers coming out this week which 260 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 9: people will be watching closely at the biggest retailer report 261 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 9: last week. And you've also got Nvidia coming out and 262 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 9: if people don't like that, they haven't knocked it out. 263 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 10: Of the park. 264 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 9: Over and above where the expectations are, you could see 265 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 9: that volatility in the markets in the short run. 266 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,680 Speaker 4: All right, Carol, we've done this round trip over the 267 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 4: past couple of weeks. 268 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 6: What do I do now in the equity markets. 269 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 9: Well, I think you stay invested. Hopefully you were invested 270 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 9: through all of that and set tight. You know, we 271 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 9: were advising clients. 272 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 8: You know. 273 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 9: The interesting thing is is if you had a diversified portfolio, 274 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 9: even on that Friday and Monday that were very volatile, 275 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 9: your bonds did well because the rates came down to 276 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 9: the bond prices went up, so you had that durability 277 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 9: built into the portfolio. You also look more broadly at 278 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 9: things that should benefit if the FED does start to cut, right, 279 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 9: small caps should benefit, mid cap should benefit. Lots of 280 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 9: different industries here in the US should continue to benefit. 281 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 9: And we do suspect that once those rates come down, 282 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 9: you'll see a consumers continue to spend because they're employed. 283 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:07,079 Speaker 9: You'll see businesses we suspect spend more than is expected 284 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 9: right now. And maybe the biggest surprise out there is 285 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 9: how low that tenure yield is, because we suspect it'll 286 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 9: drift higher over the intermediate longer term. 287 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 5: All right, So once the FED, I mean, I guess 288 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 5: we're all on the same page that they are going 289 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 5: to cut and buyk So twenty five basis points do 290 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 5: they continue to do that? Carol? Because we're growing still 291 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 5: at two and a half plus percent, and unemployment, although 292 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 5: it ticked up, is still only four point three percent, 293 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 5: which is very low. Inflation is also well under three 294 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 5: percent now, which is back to well less than even 295 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 5: its historical average. So does the Fed really need to 296 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 5: be moving interest rates around? Why don't they just hold 297 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 5: tight so that they have more powder left if something 298 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 5: bad happens. 299 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 9: They still have an incredible amount of powder if you 300 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 9: think through that. For ten to fifteen years, they had 301 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 9: basically no powder because there was zero to zero point 302 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 9: five percent. They're at five and a quarter five point 303 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 9: three percent right now, so they've got substantial policy room 304 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 9: and still leaving policy room even if they brought it 305 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 9: down one hundred basis points over the next six months 306 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 9: or so, You've still got got room in there to 307 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 9: be able to cut if things really did tail off. 308 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 9: And the last thing they want to do is be 309 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 9: caught behind the curve too, especially on that employment market, 310 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 9: because you've seen the momentum tick up there, and granted 311 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 9: it's from people coming into the market, but one question 312 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 9: you have for yourself is are they coming into the 313 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 9: market because of the they're being pinched by inflation? And 314 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 9: really feel a need. 315 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 4: Carol, I know in your notes here you've got industrials 316 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 4: and materials as a couple sectors you're looking at. 317 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 6: That's not very exciting. Why are you guys looking at that? 318 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 9: Well, the thing of it is you look at the 319 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 9: charts on some of those industrials and materials, and they've 320 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 9: looked the charts actually look a lot like in videos 321 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 9: chart does in terms of there's a lot of fiscal 322 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 9: stimulus or a lot of fiscal spending plans still in 323 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 9: the works. Much of that money has been allocated but 324 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 9: not necessarily spent, and a lot of that's not necessarily 325 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 9: going to be pulled back. And the reindustrialization that bringing 326 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 9: manufacturing back to the United States. A lot of those 327 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 9: plans are in process, they had to work through local permitting, 328 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 9: and we don't think they're going to be turned back. 329 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 9: You've also got infrastructure spent, so there's a lot of 330 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 9: reasons to think through that. But you've also got the 331 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 9: notion where if you go back and look over the 332 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 9: last twenty or thirty years, the industrial component of the 333 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 9: S and P is shrunk, and given the attention and 334 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 9: the spending, we're focusing on that sector or those sectors. 335 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 9: We expect you'll see them expand and perhaps as a 336 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 9: percentage of the S and P as well as the 337 00:16:55,440 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 9: leadership shifts to a more broad group of participating industry. 338 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 5: Carol, when you look at your portfolio, do you need 339 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,199 Speaker 5: to change anything if Donald Trump wins this election? 340 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 9: We're feeling pretty comfortable about where the portfolios are, and 341 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 9: a lot of it would depend on if mister Trump 342 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 9: wins the election and what does the composition of House 343 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 9: and Senate look like. So there's a big piece of that, 344 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 9: and we typically have always advised people not necessarily to 345 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 9: trade on potential who wins who doesn't. You know, the 346 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 9: theory have been, for example, that energy stocks should do 347 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 9: better under Trump presidency than a Biden presidency, but the 348 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:42,439 Speaker 9: opposite to be the fact. So building sturdy portfolios for 349 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:46,160 Speaker 9: intermediate long term investment always is the wise and being 350 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 9: able to adjust your tweak at the margins after we 351 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 9: see what the outcome is. 352 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 5: There. 353 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 9: We might make some adjustments, but most likely not because 354 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 9: we tend to build really sturdy portfolios and think the 355 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 9: economy is going to do quite well under either president. 356 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:03,679 Speaker 4: All right, Carol, thank you so much for joining us 357 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 4: as always Kyle Schleich, chief investment Officer for Bemo Family Office. 358 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 359 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard. 360 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 3: Play and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. 361 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 362 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 2: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 363 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 6: We've got Matthew Miller sitting in for Alex Steele. 364 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:30,120 Speaker 5: Here. 365 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 4: I'm Paul Sweeney. We're live here in our Bloomberg Interactive 366 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 4: Broker Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube's ahead over to 367 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 4: YouTube dot com search Bloomberg Podcast, and that's where you 368 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 4: will find us. Matt you want to talk about evs. 369 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 5: I would love to. Yeah. 370 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 6: Okay. 371 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,160 Speaker 4: It's great timing that you're here, because we today we're 372 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:45,640 Speaker 4: gonna talk a little bit about EV's with our good 373 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 4: friend Corey Kanter. He's the lead US Electric Vehicle Analyst. Yes, 374 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,399 Speaker 4: there is such a thing. At Bloomberg and New Energy Finance, 375 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 4: they prefer bn EF. 376 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 6: I don't care. 377 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 4: Uh. 378 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,719 Speaker 6: He joins us here on our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. 379 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 6: Corey give us a state of the market. 380 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 4: These days about where we are in this long evolution 381 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 4: from you know, internal combustion engines to getting to an 382 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 4: all electric world. 383 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 6: Where kind of are we on that spectrum today? Yeah, 384 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 6: we're We're in twenty twenty four. 385 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 11: We're in a bit of i'd say a bumpy moment, 386 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 11: bumpy first half of the year. If we step back 387 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 11: and look at twenty twenty three compared to twenty twenty two, 388 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 11: you saw in the US about fifty percent year on 389 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 11: year growth for electric vehicles in the US. First half 390 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 11: of this year, you're looking more at that kind of 391 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 11: ten to fifteen percent, depending on where you get your numbers. 392 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,200 Speaker 5: We were fifty percent growth last year and we're fifteen 393 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 5: percent this year. 394 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 11: So basically, if you take out the largest automaker, Tesla, 395 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 11: which has had a very difficult first half of this year, 396 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 11: you're still seeing amongst the automakers, your high endie your 397 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 11: Ford thirty forty percent year on year growth, more. 398 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 5: In the trajectory of what we saw last year. 399 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 11: But Tesla's stagnation and kind of i'd say aging lineup 400 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 11: has brought down that US average more to that kind 401 00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 11: of ten to twenty percent. 402 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 5: Well, and elon Trump's pandering love for Elon Musk's pandering 403 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 5: love for Donald Trump. Did you listen to that interview 404 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 5: the other day? I think interviews the wrong word. Did 405 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 5: you listen to that conversation conversation? I mean it was 406 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 5: pretty crazy. Trump was like, you make great cars, but 407 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 5: we don't all need electric vehicles, and Musk didn't even 408 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 5: really go go up against them. 409 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 11: I saw some clips from the conversation. I think less 410 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 11: of the overall listening. I'm on Twitter maybe too much, 411 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 11: but more for sports and less for spaces. With Tesla 412 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 11: in particular, there's been some challenges in California, as Bloomberg 413 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 11: News his own down to Hall has covered. You've seen quarter, 414 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 11: you know, on quarter reduction of overall sales compared. 415 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 6: To the previous year. 416 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 11: So Tesla may have a California problem. Actually, my sister 417 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 11: just got a Tesla Model Why, which continues to be 418 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 11: the best selling vehicle amongst TVs, and Ludlow. 419 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 5: Just got one, the co host of Bloomberg Technology, I mean, 420 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 5: Marian just got one, who runs the makeup room back here. 421 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,679 Speaker 5: It's a hot vehicle in terms of sales, right, but 422 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 5: it's not I guess, helping the overall number. 423 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 11: It's also they haven't released a new vehicle excluding the 424 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,479 Speaker 11: cyber truck, which has had very limited production, and all 425 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,120 Speaker 11: of those vehicles over one hundred thousand dollars. That kind 426 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 11: of expected more affordable Tesla, which you know, if you 427 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:14,879 Speaker 11: talk to me a year ago, we would have expected 428 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,239 Speaker 11: in twenty twenty five, has been kicked back to you know, 429 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 11: a couple of years afterwards. Tesla is aiming to introduce 430 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 11: some low cost models, but I think, just like anything, 431 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 11: Tesla's a moving target. 432 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 5: It's pretty low cost. You can get into a model. 433 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 3: Why. 434 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 5: I think after all rebates are said and done, for 435 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 5: about thirty four grand, which you know it's not less 436 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 5: than thirty I know that's where they want to go, 437 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 5: but it's near as damn it to it. It's a 438 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:42,679 Speaker 5: problem though, when the governor of California asks people please 439 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 5: not to charge your electric vehicles because the grid can't 440 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 5: handle it, right, I mean, can we really get much 441 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 5: bigger if we're already warning people not to charge. 442 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 11: I think I'm a you know, it's going to continue 443 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 11: to be I think a challenge for electric vehicles in 444 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 11: this particular year. That being said, California has had a 445 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 11: lot of batter storage, right and if you look at 446 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,120 Speaker 11: how they're handling their grid, it's completely different than three 447 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 11: four years ago. Utilities have to get more I think structured. 448 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 11: I'm more concerned about EV charging on the public side 449 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 11: compared to the vva G element of it. But sohos California, 450 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,440 Speaker 11: so goes the nation. They've also had a stagnation there 451 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 11: around twenty five percent EV shriff sale in the first 452 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:21,919 Speaker 11: half of this year. That's pretty much where they were 453 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 11: at at the end of last year. 454 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 6: Really high, Yeah, it is high. 455 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:29,360 Speaker 5: Are we seeing more chargers put in? I live in Scarsdale, 456 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 5: and I've had problems with multiple EV charging stations either 457 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,919 Speaker 5: broken or too full. It would make sense to me 458 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 5: for every gas station owner to just put in a 459 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 5: couple chargers, but they don't seem to be doing it. 460 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 11: There is a challenge with what's called demand charges, which 461 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,360 Speaker 11: is then pulling from the grid. It may theoretically sound 462 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 11: like a great idea, but if you're adding for those 463 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 11: grid upgrades and those additional costs, it might not be 464 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 11: worth it for the gas station operator. I think the 465 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 11: good news is a lot of the federal money hasn't 466 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,320 Speaker 11: been spent. I think there's been a misconception that you know, 467 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 11: the five billion dollars the nationally V infrastructure program has 468 00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:04,399 Speaker 11: actually gone out. It's gone to states, and they have 469 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 11: to actually begin to deploy those chargers. So it's it's 470 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 11: still moving too slow. In terms of the consumer, they 471 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 11: want to see a charging network that they feel comfortable 472 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 11: with them. Until you get to that point, you can 473 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 11: hardly say that it's going well enough. You're also seeing 474 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 11: this kind of NACS North American Charging Standard transition, the 475 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 11: Tesla supercharging network that has also been stymied by all 476 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 11: the firings of that supercharging team. So it's messy and 477 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 11: bumpy here in the US. I think in terms of 478 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 11: good news, we can point out the Inflation Reduction Act 479 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,479 Speaker 11: investments beginning to actually come online and bear fruit if 480 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:34,400 Speaker 11: we want to talk about that too. 481 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,360 Speaker 6: Samantha writes in and says, is hybrid the way to go? 482 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 11: Oh okay, Well, hybrid hybrids have done well in the 483 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 11: first half of this year. You're looking at Toyota even 484 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,639 Speaker 11: aiming to go at full hybrid. I think plug in 485 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 11: hybrids have maybe been overhyped in terms of the kind 486 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 11: of focus and attention that's when you have both the 487 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,640 Speaker 11: battery electric engine and the kind of gas engine. There's 488 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 11: not too many models besides the Jeep Wrangler P have 489 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 11: that does well, so wait and see. I think both 490 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 11: and hybrid are going to play a major role in 491 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 11: the US market going forward. I think with plug and hybrid, 492 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 11: you need them to get a lot better. 493 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 2: I think. 494 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 5: I mean, my wife had the Volvo XC nine d T, 495 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 5: a plug in hybrid for two years. 496 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 6: Doesn't have anymore. 497 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 5: That was a lease and we got we got out 498 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,679 Speaker 5: of that lease. But she loved it because for the 499 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 5: most part she was just around town on electric power 500 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 5: the whole time. In fact, in the first year that 501 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:24,960 Speaker 5: we had the car, she only filled it up with 502 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:25,679 Speaker 5: gas twice. 503 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 11: Yeah, that's pretty remarkable. 504 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,439 Speaker 5: But is that like a niche use case or I mean, 505 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 5: I feel like there's a lot of suburban that's. 506 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 11: Probably the idealized use case right of a smart PEF driver. 507 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,120 Speaker 11: And I think when we've done our reports and analysis 508 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 11: on pvs, just as you have the more savvy BEV 509 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 11: drivers battery electric vehicle drivers to you know, the more 510 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,240 Speaker 11: mass market, it doesn't mean that future PF drivers would 511 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 11: would drive that way. They might just say, oh, we're 512 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:48,719 Speaker 11: going to fill it up with gas because we're used 513 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 11: to it with the hybrid experience. What we want to 514 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,920 Speaker 11: see more of is in China, the all electric mode 515 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 11: is about twice the volume weighted average all electric mode 516 00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 11: here in the US. So you want to see more 517 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 11: of those kind of like Toyota, you have ranged fifty 518 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 11: miles forty miles less of this like eighteen because then 519 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 11: are you really going to fill it up on electric. 520 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:10,879 Speaker 5: My favorite hybrid that I've test driven recently for my podcast, 521 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 5: which is called Hot Pursuit exactly. You can download that 522 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,880 Speaker 5: on Bloomberg dot com or wherever your podcast. 523 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 6: Of course. 524 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 5: I drove the Corvette E Ray really, which has the 525 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 5: six point two liters V eight behind you and an 526 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:28,120 Speaker 5: electric motor on the front axle, and that eliminates any 527 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 5: kind of lag that you might get, like zero to ten. 528 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 5: So as a result, six hundred and fifty five host 529 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 5: power zero to sixty and two and a half seconds. 530 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,400 Speaker 6: Wow, how often you need to do that? Of course? 531 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,280 Speaker 6: Cory Canter, thanks so much for joining US. 532 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 4: Corey Canter, lead US Electric Vehicle analyst at BNF. 533 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:45,159 Speaker 6: He's still talking. 534 00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:47,640 Speaker 4: I'm not going there, but these guys can go out 535 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,200 Speaker 4: and talk about it all they want, you know, but 536 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 4: maybe I'll go hybrid at some point. 537 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 5: I think it's the way to go. I think it's 538 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 5: the way forward for now, until we deal with the 539 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 5: grid and the charging issues. You know, depends on your 540 00:25:59,000 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 5: specific use case. 541 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 6: You're not driving the Volvo anymore. 542 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 5: Way, No, we switched over to uh. I'm actually I 543 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 5: wish we'd kept it. I'm a little bit disappointed. 544 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 6: All right, we have to figure that out. 545 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,960 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 546 00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 547 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 548 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 549 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,640 Speaker 2: just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 550 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 4: We're here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. We're streaming 551 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,639 Speaker 4: live on Youtubes. To head over to that internet thing YouTube, 552 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 4: dot com search Bloomberg Podcast and that's where you find us. 553 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 4: We have a season professional like a trader investor, like 554 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 4: a person who does this stuff for a living, in 555 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 4: studio Frank Moncam Senior Portfolio Manager and Timo in our 556 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. 557 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 6: Frank, what are you doing? In this market. Where do 558 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 6: you see opportunities today? 559 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 4: I mean, I got the FEDS going out to Wyoming 560 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 4: or something and they're gonna have some economists out there. 561 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,399 Speaker 6: What do you how are you approaching this market these days? 562 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 10: Well, thanks thanks for having me on today. You know, 563 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,199 Speaker 10: I think that you know, the FED here is is 564 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,159 Speaker 10: probably getting everything he needs here to be able to 565 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,160 Speaker 10: pivot a little bit into into the easing cycle. We 566 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,439 Speaker 10: were looking at is just trying to be mindful of 567 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 10: the volatility. It's still plague in markets here. I mean, 568 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 10: we get into this Jackson Hole meeting at the end 569 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 10: of the week with a FED that's basically going to 570 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 10: look at you know, what's going on in finishing conditions, 571 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 10: right obviously we know to September rate cut that's not 572 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 10: baked ten and for for for obvious reasons, in plats 573 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 10: come down. We've seen this decceleration and growth. You know, 574 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 10: we had a little bit of an NFP scare here, 575 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 10: but you know, we got we got to remind remind 576 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 10: ourselves that this market has been super bowl though in 577 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 10: terms of pricing. You know, the easing cycle. We went 578 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 10: from seven cuts in the first quarter yeh to about 579 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 10: three and a half. I mean it was five and 580 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 10: a half two weeks ago. You know, I think one 581 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 10: thing I really want to watch is the FED is 582 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 10: really not going to you know, come out with anything 583 00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,480 Speaker 10: really decisive as far as the pace of right cuts 584 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,960 Speaker 10: between nine end of the year. But it's mostly there 585 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 10: the tone with which they describe the current environment. So 586 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,120 Speaker 10: what I want to keep my eyes on really is UH, 587 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,359 Speaker 10: what they're going to say about UH financial conditions easing 588 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 10: UH and potentially our star right and you know, it's 589 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 10: it's it's really one of those things where in terms 590 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:20,639 Speaker 10: of what we're seeing in the markets and how we 591 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,199 Speaker 10: should be positioning with with this spread meeting and and 592 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,639 Speaker 10: also the d n C. Right, there's there's there's a 593 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 10: couple of vital catalysts that are on that kind of 594 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 10: this week. It's it's really to think about the fact 595 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 10: that we're at a very liquid, you know market right now. 596 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 10: I was joking with friends of the weekend saying, you know, 597 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,000 Speaker 10: the liquidity has migrated away from capital markets into into 598 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 10: rose and at this time of the. 599 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 6: Year, it's typical. 600 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 10: So you know, the the the NFB print print for 601 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,000 Speaker 10: for August is going to be very critical. My my, my, 602 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,600 Speaker 10: view in this market is that the way that we've 603 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 10: seen the Vics kind of retrace so quickly, to me, 604 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 10: it's not really a sign a healthy market. So I 605 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,640 Speaker 10: continue to want to be watchful of volatility ahead of 606 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 10: us with the election cycle, with a geopolitical cycle, and 607 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,080 Speaker 10: I think with the Vicks having collapsed basically from sixty 608 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 10: five to about sub fifteen today, I think it's an 609 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 10: opportunity to look for some downslaw protection again as we 610 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 10: get into the fall. 611 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 12: You know, Frank, you mentioned that sort of typical August 612 00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 12: liquidity problem that we've run into a million times before. 613 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,320 Speaker 12: Paul and I were talking about it before. Is that 614 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 12: the main story of that correction we saw from you know, 615 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,479 Speaker 12: the first half of August that in the carry trade. 616 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 6: Was there anything else more there? 617 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 12: Do you think, you know, we're back almost. 618 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 5: To where we were before that that really nasty sell off. 619 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think definitely. I mean it had to do 620 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 10: with it. But I also think that, you know, I've 621 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 10: been on the record saying that you know, you know, 622 00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,640 Speaker 10: protection was really really cheap. I thought volatility was cheap. 623 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 10: I thought, you know, skew was really cheap. It did materialize, 624 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 10: it was shortly, but it did materialize. But to your point, 625 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 10: I think there's also the fact that the market is 626 00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,479 Speaker 10: really over extending to the to the to the upside 627 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,840 Speaker 10: in terms of positioning, right, I mean, positioning was super overstretched, 628 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 10: not just for the broader market, but also for you know, 629 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 10: within the mega megacap tech sector. And you know, whenever 630 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 10: you get you get to these levels, even with a 631 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 10: bullish market, you're kind of due for a bit of 632 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 10: a of correction. And and it's funny when the market 633 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 10: is is really overextended on technicals, which was the case, 634 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 10: because positioning is a technical indicator. All it takes is 635 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,240 Speaker 10: just one little technical place to happen for things to unravel. 636 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 10: And I think that's what took place in addition to 637 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 10: you know the obviously the the the GPUI carry onlind 638 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 10: and and also just you know, the SAM rule has 639 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 10: has been triggered for a for a lot of augos 640 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,360 Speaker 10: out there that that trade around these types of signals. 641 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 10: I mean, all these things kind of all happened at 642 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 10: the same time and in a period of time where 643 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,320 Speaker 10: the liquidity is very thin, So you know, I think 644 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 10: it made a lot of sense for the market to 645 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:52,479 Speaker 10: pull back the way it did. 646 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,720 Speaker 4: How about on the commodities. I mean a lot of 647 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 4: people to say buy gold and short everything else. What 648 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 4: I mean, you know, Mike McGall and I'm coding. 649 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 10: Yeah, sure, yeah, Mike, Mike's Mike's a front I you know, 650 00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 10: I it's hard to disagree with that, right, I mean, 651 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 10: when you look at the commodities complex where we are 652 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,440 Speaker 10: right now, when you look at things like oil and copper, 653 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 10: you're still getting a lot of mixed signals. You know, 654 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,479 Speaker 10: for the take the case of oil for instance, you know, 655 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 10: we we've we've got we've stayed into this range on 656 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,960 Speaker 10: let's use brent as a as a benchmark, between seventy 657 00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 10: five and ninety dollars a bow, and you can you 658 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 10: can clearly see that it's it's it's it's a range 659 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 10: that's that's been basically kept intact because you've got offsetting caalysts. 660 00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 10: So it's really market that's really. 661 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 6: Hard to read. 662 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 10: On the one side, you don't really want to short 663 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 10: it because there's a cycular shortage of investment and crewd 664 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,240 Speaker 10: and all that stuff. But it's cyclical, is really fair 665 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 10: fairly bearish, to be honest with you, And you know, opek, 666 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 10: Now the OPEC put to me, is getting softer and 667 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 10: softer and moving lower and lower. I think the Saudis 668 00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 10: need cash. I mean there's a little bit of a 669 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 10: fiscal distress in Saudi's right now. I mean they've run 670 00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,760 Speaker 10: they've only run a fiscal surplus, you know one of 671 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 10: the last ten years, says a lot. So for them 672 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,479 Speaker 10: now it's it's no longer trying to fight you know, 673 00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:09,920 Speaker 10: the the you know, the flat price as much as 674 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,040 Speaker 10: they used to. But when we look at the market 675 00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 10: like gold, you know, it's really all starts, you know, 676 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 10: being online. You know, there's there's I think there's additional 677 00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 10: momentum here with central banks continue to buy. You know, 678 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,520 Speaker 10: this Chinese I'm hearing are kind of looking for a 679 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:23,960 Speaker 10: little bit of a pull back, you know, ten to 680 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 10: fifteen percent to probably add add more, you know, the 681 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 10: PBOC that is, which is the main buyer in this market. 682 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 10: So you know, gold looks really really good, and only 683 00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,719 Speaker 10: thing there it's it's it's a bit it's a slightly 684 00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 10: overextended to be upside, but there could be momentum there. 685 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,480 Speaker 10: So I think the strategy really in commodities is I 686 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 10: would want to ride this momentum and and you know, 687 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,880 Speaker 10: potentially it keeps on dry powder on the side to 688 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,760 Speaker 10: add on dips and also just just continue to look 689 00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,840 Speaker 10: for a relative value of dis locations within commodities. You know, 690 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 10: you know oil versus gold as in bullish bullish gold 691 00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 10: kind of bearish or oil. There is these kind of 692 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 10: RB plays, and you know gold versus copper also. Yeah, 693 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 10: so you know, I think I think oil gold here 694 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 10: is the you know, the main game in town, and 695 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 10: the way to play really is to perhaps look for 696 00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 10: dips and look for ob players versus other commodities. 697 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 3: Yeah. 698 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 12: To get back to the FED for a minute, you know, 699 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 12: I'm looking at our world interest rate probability function. It 700 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 12: basically just susses out how many interest rate cuts the 701 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,080 Speaker 12: Fed funds futures traders are expecting. 702 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,480 Speaker 6: It's look at it, like three and a half, maybe 703 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,120 Speaker 6: almost four cuts this morning. 704 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 12: Yeah, yeah, by the end of you know, and we 705 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 12: only have three meetings coming up, so that's even thinking 706 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,120 Speaker 12: people are thinking we'll get a fifty basis points at 707 00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 12: one of them, I guess. But what's the risk there, 708 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 12: I mean, is the is the market in Fed fund's 709 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:49,000 Speaker 12: futures just bracing for more bad eco news? And is there, 710 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 12: you know, a risk one way or the other that 711 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:51,600 Speaker 12: they'll get this wrong. 712 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,400 Speaker 10: Yeah, I you know, I thought five and a half 713 00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,120 Speaker 10: cuts two weeks ago was over stretched. In fact, we're 714 00:33:58,120 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 10: we're kind of we kind of took the other side 715 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 10: of that, which is worked out so far. I mean 716 00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,720 Speaker 10: we're down to three point eight that's roughly almost four 717 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 10: cuts between and the end of the year. I think 718 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:11,319 Speaker 10: the real wager here is around the August jobs data. 719 00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,080 Speaker 10: Right if we were to break the one hundred k 720 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 10: jobs mark and the unemployment rate to take up maybe 721 00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,360 Speaker 10: to four point four percent or four point five percent, 722 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 10: and I think, you know, there's a chance that we 723 00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:27,920 Speaker 10: could get a fifty basis point cut in September. And 724 00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:29,879 Speaker 10: I think what the market is really getting at here 725 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:31,920 Speaker 10: is that if we get fifty in September, we're probably 726 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:33,400 Speaker 10: going to get fifty on the next one because the 727 00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,440 Speaker 10: Fed then realizes that maybe it's a little bit of 728 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,760 Speaker 10: mind curve. So I think this whole wager is around 729 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:44,360 Speaker 10: this August NFP, which my my view on that is 730 00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 10: based on the seasonality of the data. I think the 731 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 10: July print could could easily have been it could have 732 00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 10: easily been a bit of a an out liar here 733 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:53,600 Speaker 10: because of seasonality right. 734 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,839 Speaker 6: In Houston to correct, and then some of the heat waves. 735 00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 10: There's been a lot of you know, activities being canceled 736 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:01,839 Speaker 10: in the summer because of heat waves in a couple 737 00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,360 Speaker 10: of states. So that's all playing into that. So I 738 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 10: think it's one of those things where it could be 739 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,919 Speaker 10: kind of almost binary, where we either get the fifty 740 00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:10,800 Speaker 10: to fifty twenty five, which gets you to the to 741 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,680 Speaker 10: the what you know, what works is w rb S 742 00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,680 Speaker 10: pricing right now, or we might even get to a 743 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,680 Speaker 10: point where we only get one or two cuts, right. 744 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:19,319 Speaker 10: It could be one of those things where it's kind 745 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,000 Speaker 10: of if if we realize July was a blip and 746 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:23,400 Speaker 10: we get it one, we might get it one and 747 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,520 Speaker 10: done with. I FED just makes an adjustment cuts because 748 00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,399 Speaker 10: I think this thing is super telegraphed. They can't really 749 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,880 Speaker 10: backtrack on the September cut. I think it was spoop markets, 750 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:33,320 Speaker 10: which is not what the FED wants to do. So 751 00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,279 Speaker 10: I think it might just deliver a twenty five and 752 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,279 Speaker 10: kind of wait and see post election if that's if 753 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:42,440 Speaker 10: we get a strong or decent NFB, you know in 754 00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:43,000 Speaker 10: the early. 755 00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,759 Speaker 12: So no taking off on the Friday's payroll day. No, 756 00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:50,719 Speaker 12: no summer Friday. Summer Fridays are over. 757 00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,480 Speaker 4: I'm for me, all right, Frank, thanks so much for 758 00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,920 Speaker 4: joining us. Frank Monham, he's a senior portfolio manager and 759 00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:57,839 Speaker 4: then team off. This whole money management thing doesn't work 760 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:00,359 Speaker 4: after you you get a voice for radio. I mean 761 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 4: that's like, I mean incredible. I just told my producer, 762 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:04,319 Speaker 4: let's get this guy in right. 763 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,680 Speaker 6: In our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. We appreciate getting some 764 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:09,160 Speaker 6: of his time. 765 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:14,520 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 766 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,560 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card Play and 767 00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,919 Speaker 2: Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen 768 00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:24,160 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 769 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,279 Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 770 00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,839 Speaker 4: Paul Swynn here and Michael Reagan sitting and for Alex 771 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:35,680 Speaker 4: Steele said, day, Stay Lauder, el's a ticker symbol. Stocks 772 00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:38,799 Speaker 4: down like thirty five percent that year to date turnaround 773 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,080 Speaker 4: change in management. Red Brown Joints earnings reporter for Bloomberg News, 774 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:43,799 Speaker 4: read what's going on with that stay Launder? 775 00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 6: Yeah? 776 00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:47,320 Speaker 1: I think today you know, the highest level is just 777 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,280 Speaker 1: like this is a clean slate I think for this company. 778 00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 1: We saw obviously CEO stepping away at the end of 779 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,919 Speaker 1: this year. CFO is actually also leaving on the same time, 780 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 1: so you know, a new management team. And also if 781 00:36:58,120 --> 00:36:59,600 Speaker 1: we look at the guidance that they gave out for 782 00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:02,400 Speaker 1: their fist with twenty twenty five today, it came in 783 00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,319 Speaker 1: much lower than what an elks we're expecting and else 784 00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:08,240 Speaker 1: we're expecting to see constant currency growth. They were expecting 785 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,200 Speaker 1: to see earnings about the whole dollar higher than what 786 00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,960 Speaker 1: the company guided for. So again just kind of setting 787 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,920 Speaker 1: a low bar for this company going forward, clean slate, 788 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:18,759 Speaker 1: let's go from here, I think is kind of the 789 00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,480 Speaker 1: message that they're going to be trying to change the 790 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:22,680 Speaker 1: narrative to going forward. 791 00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,040 Speaker 12: Red How big of a deal is China to Estay Lauder. 792 00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,000 Speaker 12: I know they have a pretty decent sized business. There 793 00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 12: was that part of the sort of disappointing results this quarter. 794 00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think that is the main culprit 795 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:35,920 Speaker 1: of the issues that they're they're going through. I mean, 796 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,600 Speaker 1: we've seen throughout this earning season a lot of these companies, 797 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:40,840 Speaker 1: especially in the luxury space, that have tied their fortunes 798 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 1: to China are paying the price of that at the moment. 799 00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 1: So China came in really soft again this quarter and 800 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,080 Speaker 1: als we're expecting for around three or four percent growth 801 00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,640 Speaker 1: in the Asia region, which is dominated by China obviously, 802 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,520 Speaker 1: and what they saw was a four percent contraction in 803 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,840 Speaker 1: that market. So yeah, again paying the paying the price 804 00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:05,200 Speaker 1: for the investment in that region. As China sales demand 805 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 1: for these luxury products, whether it's LVMH's goods or you know, fashion, 806 00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,759 Speaker 1: anything like that. And then also skincare, fragrance, things like 807 00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,879 Speaker 1: that are also weak as the demand waivers there. 808 00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,800 Speaker 4: Just reading some of the reporting on this here company 809 00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,280 Speaker 4: in the midst of a turnaround, I'm not sure necessarily 810 00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:22,640 Speaker 4: what it has to be turned around, but the stock's 811 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,239 Speaker 4: down thirty five percent, so that tells me that a 812 00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,160 Speaker 4: year to date, So that tells me whatever they're doing 813 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:27,719 Speaker 4: ain't working. 814 00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,480 Speaker 6: So when you get it, presumably a new management team 815 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:30,759 Speaker 6: coming in. 816 00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:33,920 Speaker 4: Do they want somebody from inside or maybe some fresh 817 00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,080 Speaker 4: set of eyes coming from the outside. 818 00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:36,920 Speaker 6: What's the thinking there? 819 00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:41,360 Speaker 1: I think you know, both the CEO CFO have been 820 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,279 Speaker 1: there for over a decade now, so I mean it's 821 00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 1: always good to have somebody within the company knows the company, 822 00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:49,720 Speaker 1: but it might be time for some fresh eyes. 823 00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:51,239 Speaker 6: The company has. 824 00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,160 Speaker 1: Missed guidance or cut guidance several times over the last 825 00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,800 Speaker 1: few years. Analysts start to get when that happens, analysts 826 00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,360 Speaker 1: starts to feel they starts to lose comp It's in 827 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:04,759 Speaker 1: in that management group's ability to understand or grapple with 828 00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,920 Speaker 1: the business dynamics at the moment. So I think there 829 00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:09,879 Speaker 1: could be some calls for an outside look. The company 830 00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:14,120 Speaker 1: says they're already undertaking the next CEO search. Obviously they're 831 00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,800 Speaker 1: going to say they're they're considering internal and external candidates. 832 00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,239 Speaker 1: But yeah, definitely might be time for a for a 833 00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:19,839 Speaker 1: fresh look. 834 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,279 Speaker 12: I'm smirking here a little bit looking back on a 835 00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,839 Speaker 12: story we had out in February on Esta Lauter, where 836 00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:33,399 Speaker 12: CEO Fabrizio Freda said, I'm not going anywhere precedent, but Red, 837 00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:34,920 Speaker 12: you know, I don't know how much of an expert 838 00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,160 Speaker 12: you are on the beauty care market and skincare, but 839 00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,080 Speaker 12: you know, are they an outlier here? As far as 840 00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,799 Speaker 12: you know, you go through a million earnings reports every 841 00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 12: quarter year? Are they are they an outlier as far 842 00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:50,320 Speaker 12: as that you know, consumer discretionary space or are we 843 00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,720 Speaker 12: seeing similar stories from other you know, companies that depend 844 00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,040 Speaker 12: on I don't know whether it's beauty care or you know, 845 00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,680 Speaker 12: high fashion, you know, is is there. 846 00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:01,160 Speaker 5: A theme here? 847 00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:02,640 Speaker 1: I don't know what gave it away that I'm not 848 00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:07,640 Speaker 1: ANX but you have good skin. No, I don't think 849 00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:11,000 Speaker 1: they're an outlier. Look, I think it's you see something 850 00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:12,719 Speaker 1: for me. The similar trend that I'm picking up across 851 00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:14,440 Speaker 1: all of the retail, even you know, something as far 852 00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:18,240 Speaker 1: away as home depot is that people are focused on needs, 853 00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:22,280 Speaker 1: not once and this luxury space skincare especially. 854 00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:24,080 Speaker 5: Is a want, it's not a need. 855 00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,840 Speaker 1: A fragrance is a want, not a need. So consumers 856 00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,400 Speaker 1: are cutting back where they can, whether it's you know, 857 00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,520 Speaker 1: fixing your house up or yeah, making yourself appear a 858 00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,960 Speaker 1: little bit better, it doesn't matter. That's that's kind of 859 00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,400 Speaker 1: the the macro pressure is gonna win out in this 860 00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:39,600 Speaker 1: this this this scenario. 861 00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,440 Speaker 4: But as our good friend Samantha writes in Alex Steele 862 00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,040 Speaker 4: has always told us that you have to invest in 863 00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,560 Speaker 4: your face, which she does and Michael John Tucker and 864 00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:50,080 Speaker 4: I do not. 865 00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:53,359 Speaker 12: So I mean, clearly, my face is a value stock 866 00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:54,400 Speaker 12: right now. 867 00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:59,160 Speaker 4: But all I know is during the lockdown across the street, 868 00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:00,399 Speaker 4: the Spore store packed. 869 00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:03,680 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, no matter what, people need to get 870 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,000 Speaker 6: that stuff. 871 00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,319 Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, I guess in the pandemic people had 872 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,320 Speaker 12: a few extra bucks they weren't spending on concerts and movies. 873 00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:14,200 Speaker 6: It was just it shocked me how strong that category is. 874 00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, and then right after the pandemic as well, they 875 00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:18,120 Speaker 1: did really well because people were like, I'm. 876 00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:18,919 Speaker 6: Emerging from the world. 877 00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:21,320 Speaker 1: I want to make sure, Yeah, I haven't shaped my 878 00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,120 Speaker 1: face in six months, I might as well get moisturized 879 00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:24,520 Speaker 1: or something. 880 00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:25,520 Speaker 6: But yeah, it's there. 881 00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,520 Speaker 1: There's trends have just fallen off now and they haven't 882 00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:30,160 Speaker 1: really returned to like pre pandemic. 883 00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:30,520 Speaker 6: Levels of growth. 884 00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:31,920 Speaker 10: You know, excuse me. 885 00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,200 Speaker 1: Este later was a was a company that was like 886 00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,040 Speaker 1: really you know, flying into the pandemic and through the pandemic. 887 00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,640 Speaker 1: And then yeah, just the the fall off of China 888 00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,000 Speaker 1: and then the United States as well is kind of 889 00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:43,759 Speaker 1: not getting a lot of attention at the moment. But 890 00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,399 Speaker 1: like US sales contracted as well this quarter. It's maybe 891 00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:49,000 Speaker 1: hidden because there's been so much emphasis on China. Yeah, 892 00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:50,799 Speaker 1: but those are the two biggest markets and both are 893 00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:52,680 Speaker 1: are are underperforming I think at the moment. 894 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,360 Speaker 12: So it still seems like China's consumer economy is a 895 00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,000 Speaker 12: bit of a black box to analyst, Do you find 896 00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,920 Speaker 12: a lot of surprise is either upside or downside on 897 00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,799 Speaker 12: companies as far as their their business in China goes. 898 00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:06,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's hard to get a read because if you think, 899 00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:10,680 Speaker 1: like there was so much worry and again jumping around here, 900 00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,320 Speaker 1: but I just connecting all the different kind of earnings threads, 901 00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:15,400 Speaker 1: Like there was so much worry going into Apple's report 902 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:18,240 Speaker 1: of like where where's the Chinese consumer? Are they buying iPhones? 903 00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:19,759 Speaker 1: Things like that? You know, it's the same dollar that's 904 00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:23,320 Speaker 1: going towards these things. But yeah, it's really hard to 905 00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:26,520 Speaker 1: get a read because Apple well performs, Esday Lauder underperforms. 906 00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:27,400 Speaker 6: Yeah, it is. 907 00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:28,640 Speaker 1: It is just a kind of you know, most of 908 00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:30,120 Speaker 1: the analysts, they said here in New York, they're just 909 00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:31,560 Speaker 1: looking at data points, so it is kind of a 910 00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:32,040 Speaker 1: tough read. 911 00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,040 Speaker 4: I'm looking at the stock of Esday Lauder and looking 912 00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:36,560 Speaker 4: at the chart here at Pete at about three hundred 913 00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:38,800 Speaker 4: and seventy dollars literally on the last trading day of 914 00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,200 Speaker 4: twenty twenty one, down seventy five percent since then, Wow, 915 00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,000 Speaker 4: from three seventy to here we are at ninety four, 916 00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,520 Speaker 4: So a big move here, And I guess the next 917 00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:49,880 Speaker 4: you know, in Vidia is coming up. 918 00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,399 Speaker 6: That's still not for another week or so, right. 919 00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:53,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, that's next Wednesday. 920 00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,719 Speaker 6: I mean, they're so late in the earning cycle. I 921 00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:58,799 Speaker 6: don't know why. I'm sure there's a story there, but man, 922 00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,080 Speaker 6: it feels like the market's going to be hanging on 923 00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:01,600 Speaker 6: that one. 924 00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,560 Speaker 4: Are the expectations as high as they always have been 925 00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:05,920 Speaker 4: for in video? 926 00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:09,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, they will, of course, they will be flying extremely 927 00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:11,960 Speaker 1: high into that that report. And then if we think 928 00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:14,960 Speaker 1: kind of about the AI story of this earning season 929 00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,160 Speaker 1: is that people have been maybe investing a little bit 930 00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,040 Speaker 1: too much. We're not seeing the growth that we would 931 00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:21,880 Speaker 1: have liked out of those investments. But of course in 932 00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,600 Speaker 1: videos on the other side of that, they're one, they're 933 00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,359 Speaker 1: the ones receiving a lot of that investment. So could 934 00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:30,359 Speaker 1: be again kind of the outperformer of of of that group. 935 00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,600 Speaker 1: But yeah, definitely very high expectations. And yeah, with high 936 00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:35,279 Speaker 1: expectations there's high risk as well. 937 00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,360 Speaker 12: Anything else on your radar read that you're looking for. 938 00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,360 Speaker 12: You know, we're in that kind of weird period for 939 00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:42,680 Speaker 12: earnings where you only get the stragglers. Is there anyone 940 00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:43,920 Speaker 12: else we should really keep an eye on. 941 00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:46,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's just it's it's continue with the 942 00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,320 Speaker 1: retail stocks over the next week especially. 943 00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:50,080 Speaker 6: I'm just trying to think. 944 00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,120 Speaker 1: There's like a thousand names running through my mind now. 945 00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:55,600 Speaker 4: But the retailers, they tend to come late in the cycle. Yeah, 946 00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:59,279 Speaker 4: it'll be good, good read on the consumer. And then again, 947 00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:03,640 Speaker 4: as you mentioned that, the the Nvidia coming up, this 948 00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:05,840 Speaker 4: can be huge, not just for like Nvidia itself or 949 00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,520 Speaker 4: the tech stocks in general, but I think the market overall. 950 00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:10,840 Speaker 12: Yeah, it really seems like it's the will show us 951 00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,560 Speaker 12: the money phase of the AI craze right now, So 952 00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:15,960 Speaker 12: you know, you know, an end video might be the 953 00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:16,600 Speaker 12: outlier there. 954 00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,640 Speaker 6: But all right, we'll say on top of it, I'm 955 00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:19,480 Speaker 6: sure we'll be talking to you. 956 00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:21,719 Speaker 4: Red Red Brown, Ernie's reporter Bloomberg News, joining us live 957 00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:25,080 Speaker 4: here in our Bloomberg Interactive of Broker's studio here. 958 00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:29,839 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apples, Spotify, 959 00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,239 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 960 00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,440 Speaker 2: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on bloomberg dot com, 961 00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:40,120 Speaker 2: the iHeart radio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 962 00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,280 Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 963 00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:45,280 Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal