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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast, just about that action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing out spect We're sitting up to cash touchdowns. We

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Speaker 1: see most gamble is when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: That's incredible, big bank. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kabine you want to.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway. Welcome Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host Matt Moore, filling in for having Abrams

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Speaker 1: this week, and I'm joined by Brandon Anderson, Futures prognosticator.

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Speaker 1: Need a good, good futures commander, I think is probably

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Speaker 1: the best way to do it. You're like Cobra commander,

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Speaker 1: only for futures. We're gonna do best bets for NFL

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Speaker 1: wild Card weekend. I love this weekend. I love love

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Speaker 1: this weekend. It is to me the most fun weekend

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Speaker 1: of the NFL year outside of the opening weekend where

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Speaker 1: all the games are on. Like I just I love

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Speaker 1: wild Card. The matchups are always, I think, a little

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Speaker 1: bit closer, it's a little bit tighter. So many interesting

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Speaker 1: angles this year with the random teams that are now

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Speaker 1: in the mix for this and how nobody can figure

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Speaker 1: out where anybody is everybody's like the Rams are the

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Speaker 1: best team and the five Seed. Yeah, we're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about all that. We're gonna get into the kind of

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Speaker 1: the narratives and everything else. Do you want to let

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Speaker 1: you know that every one of the bets that Brandon's

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Speaker 1: going to talk about tonight and that you want to tail,

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Speaker 1: You can find in the quick slipp link in the

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Speaker 1: podcast and video description, or you can visit actionnetwork dot

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Speaker 1: puts in a prop on some random tied end to

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Speaker 1: move by like four points. You're gonna want to catch those.

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Speaker 1: Plus all Brandon's futures, which are always bangers, They're always

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Speaker 1: the most fun to tail. There are always value to

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Speaker 1: off and Actionnetwork dot Com slash pro. All right, Brandon,

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Speaker 1: before we get into the best bets, this is always

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Speaker 1: a busy week in the NFL. Black Monday when everyone

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Speaker 1: gets fired. There was a actually it turns out a

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Speaker 1: Black Wednesday situation where Mike McDaniel gets let go as

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Speaker 1: well from the Miami Dolphins. So I want to ask you,

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Speaker 1: what's the top coaching job available out of Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland,

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Speaker 1: the Raiders, Miami, the Giants in Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, honestly, I think these are among the worst jobs

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Speaker 3: and franchises in football for the most part, not all

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Speaker 3: of them, but there are a lot of these. I like, Man,

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Speaker 3: this is the I guess there are only thirty two

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Speaker 3: of these jobs, so I'll take the job available to me.

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Speaker 3: That's kind of what this group mostly feels like to me.

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Speaker 3: Lots of rough ownership, lots of long history of rough teams.

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Speaker 3: To me, it's Baltimore by a mile. Baltimore one of

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Speaker 3: the most talented rosters in football. I had them way

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Speaker 3: ahead of the field coming to the season, and obviously

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Speaker 3: you have Lamar Jackson, Matt, you and I both are

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Speaker 3: a little bit lower than consensus on Lamar Jackson. But

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Speaker 3: you want to have Lamar Jackson, not I don't know,

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Speaker 3: Tu or a rookie or second year quarterback or Shitar

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Speaker 3: Sanders or Panix and cousins. Like you want Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 3: versus that you also get the weaker conference right now,

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Speaker 3: you get the better division. Steelers stuck with Tomlin, they're

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Speaker 3: kind of in the middle, Bengals stuck with Zach Taylor.

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Speaker 3: I guess I don't know why we're still doing that.

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Speaker 3: They're kind of stuck in the middle and in the Browns.

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Speaker 3: So I'm the Raven are set up for pretty quick turnaround. Honestly,

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Speaker 3: I think it's one of the better jobs available in

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Speaker 3: a while. So it's interesting because I'm very high on HORRBA,

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Speaker 3: so I think they can really only kind of downgrade

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Speaker 3: from where I've seen them coming into the year, but

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Speaker 3: they downgrade themselves plenty during the year also, so I

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Speaker 3: think Baltimore they're kind of the obvious answers. So just

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Speaker 3: a second answer, if I had to pick one, I

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Speaker 3: would either do Falcons or Giants. Falcons you get a

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Speaker 3: bad division, you get a lot of talent both sides

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Speaker 3: of the roster. Giants you got neighbors, and Dart you

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Speaker 3: got a top five pick in cap room.

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Speaker 2: I think probably one.

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Speaker 3: Of those two. My question for you is thus, I

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Speaker 3: know your thoughts on Baltimore. You're the resident Chiefs fan.

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Speaker 3: I know it's a tough year, but you'll be back.

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Speaker 3: Who would Baltimore have to hire it to actually scare

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Speaker 3: you for next year?

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Speaker 1: Oh nobody. I was more scared of Harball, nobody. I

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Speaker 1: don't care. You can hire anybody you can. You can,

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Speaker 1: you can, you can hire you can bring back.

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Speaker 2: You can.

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Speaker 1: You can bring back literally anyone from the dead and

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Speaker 1: have them coach, and I do not care. I am

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Speaker 1: not I am not afraid of Baltimore as long as

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson as their quarterback, I am not afraid of

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Speaker 1: them in the playoff environment. Fair enough, I actually think

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Speaker 1: the top coaching job should be judged by who is

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Speaker 1: least likely to want to pay for another coach to

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Speaker 1: sit out. So you need to look at who's the owner,

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Speaker 1: who is not going to pay, who's not gonna want

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Speaker 1: to fire you because they don't want to pay the money.

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Speaker 1: Or you can go the other way and be like,

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Speaker 1: who's most likely to fire you so you get the

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Speaker 1: guaranteed payout and they'll have to work. Depends on what

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Speaker 1: you want out of your life. All right, how about

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Speaker 1: this one. Who's the top retrag coach available? Here's your options? Okay, Harbaugh,

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Speaker 1: Raheem Morris, Matt Naggie such an upstanding guy. Matt Naggie

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Speaker 1: like really smells like roses. He smells like leather and

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Speaker 1: find books Spags Stefanski, McCarthy or McDaniel.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't understand why Matt Naggi is getting interviews

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Speaker 3: for your sake. I hope that God someone hires him

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Speaker 3: away and the Chiefs have to make a change. I

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Speaker 3: don't know what he has done to that offense to

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Speaker 3: me again, it's Harbaugh. It's with a bullet like you

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Speaker 3: were on the same page with Harbaugh. I think he

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Speaker 3: is one of the best coaching prospects I guess available

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Speaker 3: in a while. I've had him pretty firmly as a

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Speaker 3: top five head coach for a while now, I think

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Speaker 3: at least top ten. I've had him number one at times.

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Speaker 3: Obviously kind of have to downgrade that given the way

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Speaker 3: things went this year.

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Speaker 2: But things I like about Harbaugh.

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Speaker 3: He's been consistently ahead of the time with game aggression,

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Speaker 3: making aggressive decisions fourth downs, going for it, setting the

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Speaker 3: team up that way. And I love to coaches have

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Speaker 3: to hire coordinators, and he's had a great job of

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Speaker 3: hiring good coordinators, switching them out when it's time for

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Speaker 3: a change. And in particular, a lot of coaches are

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Speaker 3: like like Stefancy for example, he plays one style, pro

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Speaker 3: style offense.

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Speaker 2: This is what we do and.

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Speaker 3: Oh, who's my roster by the way, all right, well

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Speaker 3: let's see if it works. No, no, no, that's not how

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Speaker 3: you do this. You're starting with Lamar Jackson. You better

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Speaker 3: hire the guy that's going to make Lamar Jackson's offense work,

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Speaker 3: because it's not Stefanski. That's not the dude that's gonna

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Speaker 3: fit with that. I think Harbaugh has done a really

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Speaker 3: good job hiring the right guys, replacing coordinators when they

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Speaker 3: get hired to coach elsewhere, and kind of fitting the talent.

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Speaker 3: The rest of these guys quite honestly, other than McDaniel,

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Speaker 3: I don't want you anywhere near head coaching on my team,

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Speaker 3: Like it's fitting that the worst jobs in football are

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Speaker 3: going to get the worst retread coaches in football. We're

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Speaker 3: really hiring Naggie and Rahee, Morris and McCarthy. I love Spags.

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Speaker 3: I hope for your sake you get to keep Spags.

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Speaker 3: I don't think he's a head coach. I think he's

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Speaker 3: a brilliant defensive coordinator. McDaniel still, the best thing you

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Speaker 3: can have in football is an elite offensive play caller

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Speaker 3: among coaching staff options. So I kind of hope that

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Speaker 3: he maybe gets a couple of years back as an OC,

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Speaker 3: but I think absolutely he gets another shot at some point,

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Speaker 3: and he would be my next pick.

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Speaker 2: So back to Chiefs question for you.

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Speaker 3: What in your life would you give up to get

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Speaker 3: Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator for the Chiefs next year?

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Speaker 1: Oh? Man, let's see. I would give up my autographed

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Speaker 1: Alonza Morning Basketball, which I've had since I was thirteen,

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Speaker 1: my favorite player of all times right behind me on

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Speaker 1: my desk if you're watching a YouTube dot com Slash

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Speaker 1: the Action Network, and I would give that up if

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Speaker 1: we get Mike McDaniel. That's how much I think Mike

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Speaker 1: m Daniel will Gonet coach. I understand how bad they were.

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Speaker 1: I am just like, this is a Miami problem. That

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Speaker 1: is what this reads like, not even like an organizational problem.

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Speaker 1: I just think there's a problem with players hanging out

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Speaker 1: too much in Miami. Combined with the fact that just like, hey,

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Speaker 1: they were pretty great and then what happened, Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: two almost died, It seems like that probably shaped shaped

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Speaker 1: things for the long run there. I would give up

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Speaker 1: quite a bit to get Mike McDaniel as our offensive coordinator.

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Speaker 1: It depends, but that has to come with Matt Naggy

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Speaker 1: going like it has to be an out deal, like

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Speaker 1: it both can't be here all right? Which team is

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Speaker 1: most likely to fire its coach after a loss this weekend?

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Speaker 1: I love this question as a hater, Philadelphia, Buffalo or

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Speaker 1: Green Bay.

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Speaker 3: So this is the question going around Twitter because supposedly

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Speaker 3: Harbaugh's not taking interviews over the weekend. It's gonna wait

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Speaker 3: till next week. Well, h why would he be waiting

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Speaker 3: until next week? Brian Windhorse Gift right now? Maybe because

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Speaker 3: we're gonna see if there's any other jobs opening up,

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Speaker 3: and maybe it's one of these three. I think these

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Speaker 3: are the teams that panic the most if they lose

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Speaker 3: the game. I don't think it's the Packers, just because

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Speaker 3: they have so many injury excuses already just waiting for them.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's the Eagles because they literally won

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Speaker 3: the Super Bowl a year ago. I think it's the Bills.

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Speaker 3: Maybe finally, if the Bills go as road favorites and

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Speaker 3: that defense McDermott's defense gets exposed again.

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Speaker 2: How many more coordinators can he fire?

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Speaker 3: Like, how many other people can he blame before it

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Speaker 3: finally has to be something? And look, maybe it's the

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Speaker 3: Baltimore thing. Josh is not going anywhere, So if Josh

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Speaker 3: can't get any help and if the defense gets exposed again,

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Speaker 3: maybe it's finally McDermott. And I'm curious what John Harbaugh

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Speaker 3: would want the answer to this question to be that, like,

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Speaker 3: which job is he hoping that you know who's he

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Speaker 3: got the money line that he's rooting against this weekend?

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I think it's a fascinating question. It's tough

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Speaker 1: to me to justify fire at any of these guys,

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Speaker 1: especially to fire them for Harbaugh, Like if you're Buffalo, Wait,

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Speaker 1: so the guy that like has has beaten Harbaugh gets

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Speaker 1: fired to hire harp Come on, no, all right, you

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Speaker 1: threw this one in here. You have these questions, and

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Speaker 1: you threw this one in here for me, which is

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Speaker 1: very nice of you. A virus hits the Chargers and

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Speaker 1: LA is unable to participate in the playoffs. Their spot

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Speaker 1: goes to the next team up in the division. So

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Speaker 1: they call everybody back. Mahomes' ACL surgery was magically successful

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Speaker 1: and he's ready to play on Sunday night. So a

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Speaker 1: full strength Chiefs team, what's the line and what are

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs AFC chances?

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Speaker 2: I just it's so weird.

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Speaker 3: We have all these like you know, the Chiefs, the Lions,

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Speaker 3: the Ravens, all these preseason awesome teams, and I keep

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Speaker 3: looking at my spreadsheet seeing which teams are matching up.

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Speaker 3: And these teams are still like up in the top

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Speaker 3: ten to fifteen of my rankings even though we're done

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Speaker 3: with them now I guess for the year. So that

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Speaker 3: was kind of what prompted this question. And it's so

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Speaker 3: hard to figure out who is the AFC pick? Who

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Speaker 3: do I want as the AFC pick? And I still

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Speaker 3: think Matt Moore. If the Chiefs got in with the

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Speaker 3: magically healthy Mahomes as a seventh seed. I would put

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Speaker 3: Chiefs minus one and a half at the Patriots. I

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Speaker 3: think they'd be favored in Denver after they won this week,

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Speaker 3: and they would win this week, and I would put

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Speaker 3: them at five to one to win the AFC, and

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Speaker 3: I think that number would get hammered. I think people

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Speaker 3: would still today still be betting the Chiefs to win

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Speaker 3: the AFC, given everything we just watched the last four months.

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Speaker 3: And that's why I'm not worried at all about this team.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna be fine for the next Decade's still Patrick's fine.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see. I am. I'm unsure, just unsure. I

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Speaker 1: will say Patriots Patriots minus one and a half. I

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Speaker 1: don't think you can make the Patriots, with how good

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Speaker 1: they've been this year, how overall good they've been, despite

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Speaker 1: the strength the schedule, I don't think you can make them.

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Speaker 1: I think if you make them home dogs, you're just

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Speaker 1: gonna get overweighted. You're just gonna get absolutely obliterated with

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Speaker 1: Patriots moneyline money. So I think it's Patriots minus one

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Speaker 1: and a half, which putsas is a significant you know,

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Speaker 1: three three and a half point favorite at home. That

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Speaker 1: sounds about right to me if they were in Arrowhead,

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Speaker 1: because I do think that that's how the market would

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Speaker 1: consider it. Now, I don't think that's accurate. Like I

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Speaker 1: would be betting the Patriots until Patriots minus four. I

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Speaker 1: would bet Patriots all the way to three and a

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Speaker 1: half wow, which is what I did pretty much over

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Speaker 1: the back half of the year when they kept being

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Speaker 1: these massive, massive favorites on the road, I was like, no, guys, like,

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Speaker 1: they can't be this much of a favorite. Stop it.

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Speaker 1: So anyway, that's enough. Chefs talk chiefs. Not in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: They they don't deserve as much airtime as we given them.

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Speaker 1: I do appreciate you doing this. Let's get this some

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Speaker 1: wild card weekend best bets. And the way that I

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Speaker 1: decided to do this because you know, we're obviously different

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Speaker 1: from your usual best bets performance. We're gonna talk about

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Speaker 1: your big picture of you on each game. We're only

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Speaker 1: gonna do the the games BEFO. We're not gonna exclude

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Speaker 1: Steelers Texans for Monday Night. You talk about that on

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Speaker 1: the Sunday Night Show with Evan. We're gonna talk about

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Speaker 1: what your big picture of view of this, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: give you what I believe is the betting narrative based

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Speaker 1: off of the smart people conversetions. This week, I listened

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Speaker 1: to a lot of podcasts that talk about betting, but

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Speaker 1: I also have like done the research on what people

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Speaker 1: are talking about as ESPN and CBS and all these

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Speaker 1: places as far as the matchups go. We're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about those, and I'm gonna give you some trends to

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Speaker 1: kind of support those, and you're gonna tear them apart.

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Speaker 1: As a caveat before we get started, the answer on

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Speaker 1: most of these, if I was like Brandon, why is

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Speaker 1: this trend not salient? You would be like sample size,

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Speaker 1: So just start with sample size bad? Like small sample

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Speaker 1: size bad because you turn you know, if it's even

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Speaker 1: on the ones that are pretty significant sample size, if

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Speaker 1: it's like a fifty five percent differential, which is plus

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Speaker 1: two point five percent versus profitability minus one ten, you

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Speaker 1: switch five results over a large sample size, and we're

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Speaker 1: we're scraping the edge of profitability. But the challenge to

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Speaker 1: Brandon is to be able to tear these apart without

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Speaker 1: using sample size as an excuse. We're gonna start with

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Speaker 1: the Rams at the Panthers. This is my favorite game

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Speaker 1: of the weekend. I love this game to talk about

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Speaker 1: and think about. It's so fascinating. The Panthers plus ten

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Speaker 1: and a half because that's a playoff line, a ten

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Speaker 1: and a half home underdog total forty six and a half.

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Speaker 1: And I love starting here.

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Speaker 2: And this is the one I.

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Speaker 1: Knew I was gonna love talking to you about. What's

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Speaker 1: your big picture view and your elevator pitch for Rams Panthers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So it's obviously the biggest road playoff favorite in our

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Speaker 3: system as far as we know. That's Evans stat and

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Speaker 3: I the line should honestly be even higher. Rams are

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Speaker 3: the elite team in the NFL this year. They are

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Speaker 3: still clear number one in my power ratings. For comparison's sake,

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Speaker 3: I would make the Rams more than a field goal

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Speaker 3: favorite against every team in the NFL on a neutral

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Speaker 3: except Seattle. That's how much better they are than the field.

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Speaker 3: I make the Rams a touchdown favorite against half of

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Speaker 3: the playoff field on a neutral. That's how good they are.

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Speaker 3: Their number one offense run and passed by dv Away

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Speaker 3: against the second best schedule in the league. Imagine that

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Speaker 3: good offense against the great schedule Patriots Rams have had

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Speaker 3: thirteen out of seventeen games against eight win teams are better,

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Speaker 3: so almost every game has come against a quality team.

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Speaker 3: And here's the crazy part. They have the lowest offensive

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Speaker 3: variance in the NFL. That means that they're that good

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Speaker 3: offensively game after game after game without ever dropping off,

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Speaker 3: which is a crazy combination. Eight wins by fourteen or

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Speaker 3: more points. Their four losses are all crazy unlucky. So

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Speaker 3: if you do the one score flip thing where you say, Okay,

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Speaker 3: how lucky did you get in these end games, they'd

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Speaker 3: still be thirteen and four. They didn't even get lucky

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Speaker 3: this season. They're just that good. I think it's interesting too,

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Speaker 3: we're not doing MVP today, but you're the NBA guy.

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Speaker 3: I think Matt Stafford's correct MVP case is an NBA case.

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Speaker 2: I think the harder, more important elevation.

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Speaker 3: Is taking a good to any elite, making the offense

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Speaker 3: that good, that much better than the field. That's the

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Speaker 3: sort of argument we often make for the teams in

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Speaker 3: the NBA, though when at the very top that's the

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Speaker 3: Shaygis Alexander argument. I think that was the right Stafford

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Speaker 3: argument that I didn't really hear people making a lot,

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Speaker 3: so we'll see if he gets it. The Rams also

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Speaker 3: are getting healthy. I think that's overlooked. So people are

333
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Speaker 3: gonna talk about all the Rams have been good down

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Speaker 3: the stretched. Well, they've still been good, just not they're

335
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Speaker 3: quite level. But Devant Adams he's back, he's healthy, we

336
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Speaker 3: know that one. But Alaric Jackson left tackle, he's a

337
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Speaker 3: big return for them. Quenton Lake at safety, I think

338
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Speaker 3: is a huge return for them. Their defense really fell

339
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Speaker 3: off and he has been missing the entire stretch of that.

340
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Speaker 3: So I think the Rams are a better version than

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Speaker 3: we've seen down the stretch, and they should be getting

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Speaker 3: these guys back now. The Panthers are not a good

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Speaker 3: playoff team. They're by far the worst playoff team in

344
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Speaker 3: the field. They're twenty fourth in DBA, that's bottom ten.

345
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Speaker 3: I don't know what their strength is like, I literally

346
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Speaker 3: don't know how to tell you what the strength of

347
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Speaker 3: the Panthers would be if I had to pick one.

348
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Speaker 3: If you flip their one score games, they're four to

349
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Speaker 3: thirteen on the season, the worst team in the NFL.

350
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Speaker 3: They just laid a complete egg in a playoff game

351
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Speaker 3: against the Buccaneers, but backed in any way. Against playoff teams.

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Speaker 3: Panthers are two and five this season, average score twenty

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Speaker 3: eight to fourteen in those games. Despite that they won

354
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Speaker 3: two of them, they scored sixteen or least all but

355
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Speaker 3: one of the games. In the losses, they averaged ten

356
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Speaker 3: points a game and they lost by eleven, sixteen, seventeen,

357
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Speaker 3: twenty nine to thirty one. This game reeks of blowout city. However,

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Speaker 3: let me answer your first question. Why didn't the Rams

359
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Speaker 3: beat them the first.

360
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Speaker 2: Time they played?

361
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Speaker 1: Then?

362
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Speaker 3: Okay, let's talk about it. Stafford had a tipped interception

363
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Speaker 3: in the end zone and then like three plays later

364
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Speaker 3: through a pick six. He's not going to do that again.

365
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Speaker 3: That's like a ninety nine percent bad outcome for them.

366
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 3: And Bryce Young throws two long goofy fourth down touchdowns

367
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Speaker 3: against the same corner. That's like eleven and a half EPA.

368
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Speaker 3: That's not happening either. Look at the underlying metrics success

369
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Speaker 3: rate sixty one percent to thirty nine. That is an

370
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Speaker 3: absolute beatdown in the Rams half ninety eighth percent til outcome.

371
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Speaker 3: The Rams ran seventy six percent success rate in that game.

372
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Speaker 3: That was the single best rushing performance of any team

373
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Speaker 3: in any game this entire season. They had five third

374
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Speaker 3: downs the entire game. The Panthers didn't stop them only

375
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Speaker 3: when Stafford stopped them himself. Seven and point four yards

376
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Speaker 3: per play for the Rams. And look beyond all the

377
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Speaker 3: I know you accused me often rightfully so at times

378
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:23,639
Speaker 3: of Rams good Panthers bad. Next question, beyond that to

379
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Speaker 3: the actual matchup. The Panthers are twenty seventh EPA per

380
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Speaker 3: play against the motion that's Sean mcvay's offense.

381
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Speaker 2: They're elite at that.

382
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 3: The Panthers are awful against inside runs, bottom five. The

383
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Speaker 3: Rams have gone way up since mid season to top

384
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Speaker 3: ten there. Panthers are thirty first on third down. They're

385
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Speaker 3: thirty second in pressure. Stafford's gonna pick them apart. Their

386
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Speaker 3: bottom ten against wide receiver one guess it was a

387
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Speaker 3: good widecerver one Kuku Nakua. Their thirtieth against tight ends

388
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Speaker 3: the Panthers. The Rams play all that thirteen personnel. It's

389
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Speaker 3: everything you look. This is a disaster matchup and a

390
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Speaker 3: disaster team. So, Matt Moore, why am I wrong about

391
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Speaker 3: the Panthers And why is this even a game we

392
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Speaker 3: have to watch and talk about on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: I love this game. And here's why, because when this

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Speaker 1: I knew that this matchup was coming, and I knew that.

395
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Speaker 1: The one thing I remember distinctly is that it's like

396
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Speaker 1: you take anecdotal information and like your brain remember something.

397
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Speaker 1: And then the key though, is people will oftentimes bet

398
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Speaker 1: based off of I remember this other instance that models this,

399
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Speaker 1: so I will bet in accordance with that previous thing.

400
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Speaker 1: You actually have to go back and you have to

401
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Speaker 1: look at the numbers and see, like, all right, that

402
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Speaker 1: was one instance that you remember, but what about all

403
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Speaker 1: the other instances that line up with this? The thing

404
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Speaker 1: that I remembered is that all these teams that make

405
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,919
Speaker 1: the playoffs when they shouldn't, these teams from these shitty

406
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Speaker 1: divisions where everybody's like, the only reason this team is

407
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Speaker 1: in the playoffs is because they won their division, but

408
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Speaker 1: they're at home, And so I remember that being like

409
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Speaker 1: those teams wind up being like we look up on

410
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Speaker 1: Sunday or Saturday and we're like, wait, it's seventeen ten

411
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Speaker 1: shitty team and the fourth why? And so I checked

412
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Speaker 1: it and I decided to look at this and you

413
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Speaker 1: can just do the basic here, which is you should

414
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Speaker 1: just take big dogs. Dogs of more than a touchdown

415
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Speaker 1: in the playoffs are highly profitable. In the wildcard rounds

416
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 1: of two thousand and three, home dogs of more than

417
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Speaker 1: a touchdown are three. Now, okay, again, bear with me

418
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Speaker 1: on the sample side stuff, because I'm about to run

419
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Speaker 1: you down all of these that all point in the

420
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Speaker 1: same direction. Brandon, I did the same thing as you.

421
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Speaker 1: I started looking at like, all right, surely, surely there

422
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Speaker 1: is like a number that I can look at here

423
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Speaker 1: to see like, ah, but teams that do this thing

424
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Speaker 1: are actually pretty good. No, there's nothing here with the Panthers.

425
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Speaker 1: They got no advantage. There is nothing that you can

426
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Speaker 1: find here in favor of them. So the problem, though,

427
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Speaker 1: I think, is this, and this is like where I

428
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Speaker 1: think it gets very fascinating. If the Rams are this

429
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Speaker 1: good as the numbers say they are, why are they

430
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Speaker 1: on the road. Why aren't they at home with the

431
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 1: buy Because those teams, when they're at home and they

432
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 1: have all these advantages do exactly what you're saying. They

433
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 1: kill that other team, annihilate them. But when they're on

434
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 1: the road, weird shit happens. Like teams under five hundred

435
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 1: at home in the playoffs are three and one ATS.

436
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 1: It's having four times, but it's three and one ATS. Okay, fine,

437
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: two little stats. Home teams as a dog with a

438
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,360
Speaker 1: worst record, so just the other team one more. You're

439
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 1: at home, but you're the dog ten six and two

440
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 1: against the spread. This is the rest have like a

441
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 1: plus one twenty seven point differential. The Panthers are minus sixty.

442
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 1: Teams with more than a one hundred point net points advantage. Okay,

443
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 1: you were so plus that you were over one hundred

444
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 1: points more than the opponent are still not very good

445
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:50,640
Speaker 1: in that situation.

446
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 4: They're still actually bad. They're thirty three and thirty six

447
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 4: ATS at home. Those teams that were one hundred point deficit,

448
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 4: eight five and one against the.

449
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 1: Spread, they just cover these numbers with a negative point differential.

450
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 1: You just you the other team scored more over the

451
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 1: course of the season than you did, seven to four

452
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 1: and one ATS. So I looked at all of these

453
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 1: brand now I was like, all right, look, I'm doing

454
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,919
Speaker 1: the numbers and the record, but like this is a

455
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: total mismatch. This is like the Rams are better at

456
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:26,479
Speaker 1: fucking everything. Teams who have more points, more rush yards,

457
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: more passing yards, and better yards per play than their opponents.

458
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 4: Are still two and six ats on the road.

459
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 1: Worse than fifty point differential as a home dog eight

460
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 1: and five. Like I said, road favorites with a better

461
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 1: QBR are one and four against the spread and the

462
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 1: last one team. This is an interesting one because there's

463
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 1: a lot of talk about this teams that missed the

464
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: playoffs last year making their playoff debut. The difference here

465
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 1: is that they're almost always favorites at home. They're almost

466
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 1: either on the road as a dog because it's like

467
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 1: they snuck in, but this is a home dog. Those

468
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: ones are actually eleven and ten, nine and thirteen straight up,

469
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 1: but eleven and ten ats, You go, that's not very good,

470
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,640
Speaker 1: but consider it with all of the its swings dramatically

471
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 1: when they're a home dog. So, Brandon, my problem here

472
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 1: is you're absolutely right that, like the Rams should win

473
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: this game, like forty eight to seven, maybe six Mu's

474
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: not even give them a touchdown. But the history says

475
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 1: they don't cover this number, that whenever there's this great

476
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 1: team that has to go on the road, they don't

477
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 1: cover the number. What's your response.

478
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be honest, every one of these trends absolutely

479
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 3: terrifies me because I am aware of all of them,

480
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 3: and I am so afraid of getting to like Saturday

481
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 3: at five pm and being like, what the Panthers are winning?

482
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 2: I don't want to watch them again next week. I

483
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 2: have to talk about them again.

484
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 3: Next week, the Rams might go out that they're gonna

485
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 3: blow this cover for me.

486
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: I know all these trends. These the trends.

487
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 3: I bet these are the teams I pick usually, I

488
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 3: just can't do it in this matchup, Like I don't

489
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 3: have a rebuttal to all these trends other than the

490
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 3: one I can't have, which is that there's not that

491
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 3: many samples among them. And I will say, you listened

492
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 3: off like ten trends rightfully, So all things that make sense,

493
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna guess there's a huge amount of overlap in

494
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 3: those trends, Like a lot of the same team not

495
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 3: covering is ruining all the trends all the way down.

496
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 3: So it's like it's again, it's the sample thing, but

497
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 3: it's fairy, like we all remember these. We remember beast

498
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 3: Clake when the Seahawks won. I brought up on Sunday

499
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 3: Night the Dolphins in ninety nine, I believe were the

500
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 3: worst point differential team ever to make the playoffs. They

501
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,360
Speaker 3: lost sixty two to seven when they got into the playoffs.

502
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 3: That was the final Dan Marino game of his career.

503
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 2: Here's what I didn't say.

504
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 3: They lost sixty two to seven in the second round

505
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 3: after winning the first round because somehow the terrible point

506
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 3: differential team, the worst of all time, still want to

507
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:02,919
Speaker 3: gain and then lost by fifty five after that. So

508
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 3: I don't understand what's happening. Here's one thing that I

509
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 3: will say in response to this, and have a few

510
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 3: trends of my own. One trend that I like here,

511
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: teams that have lost a non division game at Week

512
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 3: twelve or later over the last decade two of the

513
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 3: team they're facing here. So the Panthers played the Rams,

514
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 3: the Panthers beat them. That to me is the slight

515
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,439
Speaker 3: saving grace. So all the trends you said, because to me,

516
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 3: what's the thing all those trends are saying. They're all

517
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 3: saying that the Rams are kind of mad they didn't

518
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,719
Speaker 3: make the one seed. They look over and they're like, oh,

519
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 3: who are you playing? They're from where the Carolinas. They're terrible. Great,

520
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 3: who's our next matchup? That to me is what's happening

521
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 3: in those and is the overlook factor. Unless you just

522
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 3: played this team in the last two months and they

523
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:58,199
Speaker 3: beat you, that's the trend. You lost to this team

524
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 3: in the last decade, week twelve or later. Those teams

525
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 3: are seven and two ats by over a touchdown a

526
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 3: game in the last twenty five years. When the favorites

527
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: are more than a touchdown, they are winning three and

528
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 3: zero by fifteen points a game. So again, tiny sample,

529
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 3: but that's one saving Gracey Mula all of those trends

530
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 3: is Okay, why are the Rams on the road. It's

531
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 3: because of Carolina. They blew the game and now they

532
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 3: have to play the game. You don't need bulletin board material.

533
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 3: They're the bulletin board. This is the team that is

534
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 3: the reason you don't get to be home in bed

535
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 3: this week watching the football instead. So I think you

536
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 3: have the attention a little bit already because of that.

537
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 3: So I do like that on the Rams behalf a

538
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 3: couple other trends in their favor You kind of hit

539
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 3: this one already, but will come up often. Wild card

540
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 3: hosts that miss last year's playoffs fourteen and thirty ATS

541
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 3: thirty two percent though, as you said, better if they're

542
00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 3: the underdog there. And then one that we're going to

543
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 3: talk a bunch quarterbacks making their playoff debut against an

544
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 3: experienced quarterback twenty thirty nine and a one ats thirty

545
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 3: four percent.

546
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 2: That's Bryce Young, I.

547
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 3: Said on Sunday, I guess the Panthers have to stick

548
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 3: with Bryce Young for another season because he won the division. Now,

549
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 3: I think there's a world where that opinion changes by

550
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 3: the end of Saturday and they're like, Okay, yeah.

551
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 2: No, that's no.

552
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 3: We can't tell this guy he's not a playoff quarterback.

553
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,399
Speaker 3: Let's let's be honest about what we just saw. That

554
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 3: was a disaster. I think that's very much in play

555
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 3: and road wildcard teams on a one game win streak,

556
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 3: so teams that basically lost Week seventeen but had to

557
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 3: win the finale either to get in or to improve

558
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 3: their seating, like the Rams sixteen to four and a

559
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 3: one ats eighty percent. So I still feel good about

560
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,919
Speaker 3: enough trends on the other side to balance out to

561
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 3: go match up not trends here. Eight of twelve Rams

562
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,640
Speaker 3: wins by fourteen or more points, twenty four and more

563
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 3: points three times. I think the Rams score anything they

564
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 3: want to do in this game. And I don't trust

565
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 3: Bryce Young to score either. The Panthers are not scoring

566
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 3: these games against better teams. This truly, and I know

567
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 3: this is what you would say on every one of

568
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 3: these sub five hundred teams. I can't think of a

569
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 3: bigger playoff mismatch than this game. Like, I honestly don't

570
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 3: know what other game. I can't come up with one.

571
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,959
Speaker 3: So took Rams minus ten on the hot read ten

572
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: and a half if you need it now playing the

573
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 3: Alts Rams minus twelve and a half plus one eighteen

574
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 3: Rams minus twenty three and a half plus four to twenty.

575
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 3: I just had to bet it and live with the result.

576
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 3: Everything that I analyze says that the Rams. I said

577
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 3: forty one to ten, and you're right, maybe ten is

578
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 3: two generous for Carolina.

579
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: I just have to live with the result.

580
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 3: And look, if it's rainy and windy and goofy and

581
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 3: it's Stafford outdoors and we get the two tipped interceptions

582
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 3: and we get the basically the game we saw already,

583
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 3: I just have to live with it. That's sports, and

584
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 3: that's betting. Every analysis I have says Rams blowout and

585
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna bet what's in front of me.

586
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 1: Teams with the worst record at home, Okay, are twenty

587
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 1: six and seventeen straight up twenty four seventeen and two

588
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: ATS if they lose the game. So if you're just like, look,

589
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 1: the Rams can hang within the or the Panthers can

590
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: hang within the number, but they're gonna lose this game.

591
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: Teams that have lost of those seventeen teams that have

592
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 1: lost in this matchup one fourteen and two ATS, and

593
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 1: they lose by nine points in spread in spread differential,

594
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 1: So now a lot of those are not double like

595
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 1: because of again, this is the largest defice that we

596
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: were uh map points we've ever seen a team get

597
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 1: at home. But just that number in general does back

598
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: to the playing the Alls play. Like if if this

599
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 1: because I gave you all those numbers, if this goes

600
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: the other way and it's like, oh this is they're

601
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: three and one, Well now they're three and two, right,

602
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 1: Like that's how easy it can go. It probably goes

603
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: Brandon's way, where if like, if the Rams don't lose

604
00:29:56,120 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 1: this game outright, they probably blow them out. So I

605
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: totally understand that. Okay, that was fun. I enjoyed that.

606
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 1: That was good. I love this game. It's so random.

607
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 1: Let's do Packers at Bears. Bears are a one and

608
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: a half point underdog at home. No one believes in

609
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 1: these Bears. Forty six is the total Brandon, what's your

610
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 1: elevator pitch on this game?

611
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 2: Yeah?

612
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 3: I still just can't make any sense of this line.

613
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: I think the market is totally outdated on the Packers

614
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 3: right now, and we'll get back to that on a

615
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 3: look ahead at the end as well. But defense especially,

616
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 3: I think the market's view of the Packers' defense is

617
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 3: not cut up to how bad they've become. Green Bay

618
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 3: was number nine Bay DVA first nine weeks of the season,

619
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 3: aka the first half the season. They're twenty fourth since then,

620
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 3: and they're getting worse over the last six games because

621
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 3: Mike Parsons is out, everyone's getting hurt, their pets, heads

622
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 3: are falling off. It's all going bad for Packers defense.

623
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 3: The pass defense, the run defense cratered at the end

624
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: of the season. We all watched that Ravens game when

625
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,719
Speaker 3: Henry ran all over them. They're rushing attack has been worse. Obviously,

626
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 3: getting Josh Jacobs back should help with that. The Bears

627
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 3: defense is bad too, but over the last six weeks

628
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 3: it's basically kind of like average. If you look at

629
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 3: the metrics by run past DVA, it's kind of a

630
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 3: round average.

631
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 2: And that's because they're still not good. I was over high.

632
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: On Chicago's defense end of the season, but they're getting healthy.

633
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 3: The linebackers are back, the corners mostly seem to be

634
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 3: back this week. Still a little bit of a question there,

635
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 3: but it looks like Kyler Gordon should play. That is

636
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 3: a huge swing factor for them defensively. I just think

637
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 3: Chicago is the better offense and the better defense right now.

638
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 3: Green Bay two and fourgans playoff teams. Their defense also

639
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 3: has been a way worse on the road all season,

640
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 3: bottom ten on the road. Chicago's defense on the road thirtieth,

641
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 3: but at home top half of the league. So it's

642
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 3: been a big swing both of these teams. So all

643
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 3: of that led me on Sunday night to the hot

644
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 3: reed Bears minus one zero four money line. However, as

645
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 3: I dug into it this week, every single thing I

646
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 3: looked at matchup wise, I feel worse about backing the Bears.

647
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 2: Here.

648
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,719
Speaker 3: I'm still on the Bears, but I start to understand. Okay,

649
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 3: my numbers say like Bears minus nowhere near Packers minus anything.

650
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 3: But here's some things that worry me for Chicago's say

651
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 3: green Bay top five explosives offense and defense. The Bears

652
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 3: are bottom ten giving up explosives. So the Bears can

653
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 3: be the better team for ninety five percent of the

654
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 3: plays and then ruin it on three huge plays. Either way,

655
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 3: that's not great. The Bears are bottom ten against play

656
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 3: action Packers top three. Play action Bears are bottom ten

657
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 3: middle of the field defense Packers top five. All the

658
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 3: places the Packers are best at are the things that

659
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 3: the Bears are also bad at. The Bears are bottom

660
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 3: ten against eleven personnel just base personnel. The Packers are

661
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 3: first there, even though they don't use it a lot.

662
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 3: Green Bay wants to run heavy. The Bears can't defend

663
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 3: the run right now, So it just all lines up

664
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 3: to I get frustrated with Lafleur and a lot of

665
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 3: what Green Bay does, but a lot of what Green

666
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 3: Bay does, frustrated or not should work against this particular

667
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 3: Bears team. And on the flip side, all the love

668
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 3: I have for Ben Johnson, Chicago's biggest length is on

669
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 3: first down. They're the second best offense in the league.

670
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 3: I'm first down by EPA. The Packers one good down

671
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 3: defensively is first down. Then after that it gets bad.

672
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 3: But if you can keep Chicago in second and eight,

673
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 3: second and seven versus second and two, all right, Caleb

674
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 3: Williams making your playoff debut, what are you gonna do now?

675
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 3: So I think that's a little bit of a worry

676
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 3: as well. The Packers defense against the run is worse inside.

677
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 2: The Beers are better outside.

678
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: So that kind of mirror strength and the weakness there.

679
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 3: Chicago's shredded pressure and blitzes this season. The Packers blitz

680
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 3: very little, third least of any team. And green Bay

681
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 3: rested last week. They're the road team, but the Beers

682
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 3: played the Piers, tried to win and didn't win, but

683
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 3: played hard all the way. Green Bay got the rest.

684
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 3: And then, of course you have all the trends about

685
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 3: the teams missing the playoffs, the debut quarterback, the stuff

686
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 3: we just said about Bryce Young going against Carolina goes

687
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 3: against Caleb here as well. Home teams and division rematches

688
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 3: usually not good. In the playoffs, seven seeds don't win,

689
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 3: So that's the one big thing in Chicago's favor only

690
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 3: once ever since we went to seven seeds as the

691
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 3: seven to one a game, it.

692
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 2: Was Green Bay.

693
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 3: So this is a good start for Green Bay, but

694
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 3: they're losing by ten points a game. If you look

695
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 3: back at the two matchups, this is where I kind

696
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 3: of got stuck at.

697
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,240
Speaker 2: We watched the Packers.

698
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 3: Win the first game and then the second one on

699
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 3: a Saturday night, so we most of us watched that game.

700
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:28,280
Speaker 3: It was dreadful, nothing was happening, Love got hurt. Malik

701
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 3: Willis came in, and the Packers still led all the

702
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 3: way until the final quarter when the Bearers had this

703
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:38,320
Speaker 3: like magical comeback. And look, I'm from Chicago. Everyone around

704
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 3: there is talking about Bearrys. What's gonna happen. Who's gonna

705
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 3: win this Bears Packers matchup? The thing is said of

706
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 3: the time was I think the Bears win this game,

707
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 3: it's their super Bowl, and then they lose to the

708
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 3: Packers the next time they play in the playoffs. Well,

709
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,359
Speaker 3: here we are in the playoffs, and I forgot about

710
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 3: the thing that I said that I have to live

711
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 3: with being on the other side of now with my

712
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 3: pick and I'm gonna.

713
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 2: Throw this back to you. I think you want to

714
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 2: talk about this.

715
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 3: The Packers still own the Bears. They've won twenty seven

716
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 3: out of thirty two against Chicago twenty seven out of

717
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 3: thirty two, twelve out of fourteen. Does that matter? Does

718
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 3: history matter here to you on this matchup?

719
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think this is like a really interesting question

720
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 1: because we do this. I think we do this with

721
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,919
Speaker 1: that jagged Colts trend right about the Colts and Jacksonville.

722
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 1: There's like these things that and we talk about this

723
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: in our group chat with him a little bit where

724
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: it's like, there's these things that just happened in sports

725
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: and the answer is like, they happen until they don't happen,

726
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 1: and then we forget about them. It does feel I

727
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 1: don't even necessarily think this is like a big narrative

728
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: in the in the conversations this week, because it's largely

729
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 1: like sporting media, especially betting media, but sports media, NFL

730
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 1: media has gotten a little bit too smart. They're like,

731
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 1: well those don't it doesn't matter. So like the one

732
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,320
Speaker 1: I found was since Rex Grossman's Bears went to the

733
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, the Packers are thirty and nine versus the Bears,

734
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,919
Speaker 1: But like, what does it matter that the twenty ten

735
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 1: Packers were better than the twenty ten Bears. What is

736
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: the matter that the twenty eighteen Packers were better than

737
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 1: the twenty and eighteen Bears. Like none of those teams

738
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,800
Speaker 1: are playing in this game, Like neither of those teams

739
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: that those players aren't there. It's different quarterbacks, it's different coaches,

740
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 1: Like everything's different than the history of this It's evolved

741
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 1: too much. So it's like an interesting question of just

742
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: like why, like why has this happened so much? And

743
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 1: there's probably something to be said for the mental edge

744
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: that I think that varv and Rogers had over this team.

745
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 1: Rogers in particular, I don't know the love's been around

746
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 1: long enough to necessarily have that. So, like I could

747
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,839
Speaker 1: give you all the numbers like you kind of mentioned, right,

748
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: like Matt Lefflor's Packers are twelve and two straight up

749
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: eleven and three ats versus the Bears, but they've also

750
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 1: lost straight up and ats and two of their last three.

751
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 1: So it's just like this is a thing until it's not.

752
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 1: And if the Packers win this game and cover, then

753
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: everyone's gonna be like Packers owned the Bears, and if

754
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: they don't it's just like, oh, I guess that wasn't

755
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,239
Speaker 1: really ever a thing in the first place. So like

756
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with it, because like

757
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 1: it is this. I definitely bet Packers last time because

758
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 1: I was like, oh man, Packers versus the Bears, they

759
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 1: always beat them. Like you're to have to show me, well,

760
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 1: to show me? How do you kind of deal with

761
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: this as somebody that like you want to look at

762
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: the matchups and the analytics and like what is actually happening?

763
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 1: Does any of that? But you're also somebody who is

764
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 1: very aware of like narratives around the NFC North teams,

765
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 1: So like what's your reaction to all this?

766
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 2: Yeah?

767
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 3: I do think mentioning the quarterbacks thing is key because

768
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 3: I think when it was Rogers still like I remember

769
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 3: remember the game when he ran for a touchdown like

770
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 3: into the corner of the end zone late in the

771
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 3: game in Chicago and yelled into the camera, I still

772
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 3: own you, I own you. Like that is the mental

773
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,919
Speaker 3: edge we're talking about. If this were Rogers still even

774
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 3: at his age and this version of Rogers, I would

775
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 3: still say, Okay, yeah, the history matters. This dude has

776
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 3: owned this team for a decade. Jordan Love is different

777
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 3: like he has not owned them. In fact, if you

778
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 3: want to do Lafleur against Bears stats, I don't have

779
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:12,280
Speaker 3: the number.

780
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 2: But how about Lafleur.

781
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 3: Against Ben Johnson because that goes very strongly the other way,

782
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 3: and the Packers have been dominated in recent years against

783
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 3: Ben Johnson's teams Chicago now and Detroit before that. That

784
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 3: has not gone well for Lafleur. So you know, we

785
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:28,439
Speaker 3: love the narrative thing because we're doing all the trends.

786
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 3: With dollar stats, you can always find the right stat

787
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:32,800
Speaker 3: to figure your narrative, and you always tell the story

788
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 3: after the game happens to tell the story that you

789
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 3: thought you should have told before the game. So that's

790
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 3: the fun of it all. I'm still I have to

791
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 3: play the Bears here. I'm not going to add to

792
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 3: my position. But if my numbers tell me Bears minus

793
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,399
Speaker 3: four and the Packers are favored, I have to feel

794
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 3: good about a coin flip money line. So if you

795
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 3: didn't bet it yet, I still have to like Bears here,

796
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 3: and again, like with the Rams, I'll live with the result.

797
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:58,280
Speaker 3: My best bet is going to be on the total.

798
00:38:58,320 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 3: Do you want to talk about your other trend here

799
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 3: before to that, I'll just.

800
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 1: Rip through it quickly. I think the other betting, the

801
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 1: betting side of this thing is just largely like the

802
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 1: Bears are fumble luck merchants, that's the idea. It's just

803
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: like they had great turnover luck this season and those

804
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 1: teams turning into pumpkins when the playoffs come, and they're right.

805
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 1: Teams with fumble luck but have a worse point differential

806
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: than their opponent are ten seventeen and one against the spread,

807
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,439
Speaker 1: so that's not great. The Bears are two and five

808
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 1: straight up the season, by the way, when their opponent

809
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 1: scores more than twenty four points. So if Love is

810
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 1: able to get them to four touchdowns and this turns

811
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,240
Speaker 1: into a barn burner, I don't like the Bears' chances,

812
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: But that's also going to kill your under bets, so

813
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,879
Speaker 1: let's talk about that. Like, I'm very surprised that you're

814
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 1: on the under end this game given you talked about

815
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 1: the Bears being like average over the last six weeks. Congratulations,

816
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 1: but like they're twenty fifth and defensive DVOA and Green

817
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,799
Speaker 1: Bay's nineteenth, why are you on the unders here?

818
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,760
Speaker 3: So both games that we saw already in the last

819
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 3: only couple of months finished at thirty nine points, so

820
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 3: that's a good flag to start us out of. Like,

821
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 3: all right, maybe not a lot of points despite the defenses.

822
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 3: Looks wintery on Saturday, win, probable snow at least before

823
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 3: the game, freezing tempts. Both teams want to run the

824
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 3: football and probably should be able to, but that smells

825
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 3: a lot like ten twelve play drives that even still

826
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 3: might end in field goals win. The unders always a

827
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 3: tran last five seasons sixty one percent to the under

828
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 3: fifty percent this year, so I think set up right away,

829
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 3: if you look at both teams, it's it looks like

830
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 3: an unders. But despite the defensive thing here you're speaking

831
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 3: of small sample. Here's a goofy trend. Home teams off

832
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 3: a home loss since twenty sixteen ten to oh to

833
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 3: one to the under one hundred percent hit rate. Home

834
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 3: teams off a home loss. That's Chicago ten to oh

835
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:46,399
Speaker 3: to one to the under. So I'm specific gonna play

836
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 3: a first half under here. Packers first half unders twelve

837
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,799
Speaker 3: and five on the season, Chicago eleven to six, so

838
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:56,760
Speaker 3: sixty eight percent combined just first half, because second half

839
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 3: these teams were over teams both twelve and five to

840
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 3: the over in the second half. I think the way

841
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 3: these teams play it's a little different. Lafleur plays two

842
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 3: conservative early and holds back and then unleashes Jordan Love

843
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:10,840
Speaker 3: late in the game. Okay, go do the thing. It

844
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 3: drives me crazy. Just let him be good early.

845
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 2: But he doesn't.

846
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 3: Ben Johnson's offense has been slow early, but he's made

847
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 3: incredible adjustments in at halftime, and they had much better

848
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 3: second half offense. So here's the numbers for that Chicago offense.

849
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 3: Twentieth by DVUA in the first half, top five second half,

850
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 3: including second in the fourth quarter. I don't want the

851
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,360
Speaker 3: under against that later in the game. I'll take it

852
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 3: early Packers League average first quarter by DVA offensively top

853
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 3: five after that, second, third and fourth quarters. Every quarter,

854
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 3: top five first quarter, I think they're thirteenth. Chicago's defense,

855
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 3: for whatever reason, sixth in the first quarter, bottom ten

856
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 3: every quarter after that, including immediately thirty first in the

857
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 3: second quarter. So everything in the numbers tells us across

858
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 3: a small sample that these teams aren't scoring early or

859
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 3: giving up a lot of points early, and then it

860
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 3: slowly crescendos as the game goes on halftime. Of these

861
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 3: two matchups, six points in one of them, seventeen in

862
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 3: the other one versus second half points thirty two and

863
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 3: twenty two. So everything fits what the numbers are telling

864
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 3: us about these teams for the season. So here's the

865
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 3: play is for you. I got a few of them.

866
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,839
Speaker 3: First half under, that's the best bet under twenty two

867
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 3: and a half. I think this game starts out quiet

868
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:31,800
Speaker 3: and gets interesting late, and I like the first quarter

869
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,799
Speaker 3: under for all those reasons I said first quarter under

870
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,879
Speaker 3: nine and a half points. Remember, the Bears defense gets

871
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 3: worse immediately in the second quarters. It's been bad early

872
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 3: both games Bears Packers this season.

873
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 2: Score at the end of the first quarter.

874
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 3: Nothing nothing, So a little escalator mind shaft. If you

875
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 3: will scoreless first quarter plus five seventy five no points

876
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 3: zero zero, howevery book has it, you should be able

877
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 3: to bet that one. And then just a little nibble

878
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,439
Speaker 3: on the last thing. Let's go with the first half under,

879
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 3: second half over to fit the trends totally. So start slow,

880
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 3: get interesting late. I grab a couple oftlines under seventeen

881
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 3: and a half, first half over twenty and a half

882
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 3: second half is plus five thirty seven. That trend. Every

883
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,480
Speaker 3: one of those bets I just gave has hit in

884
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:18,879
Speaker 3: both Bears Packers.

885
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 2: Games this season.

886
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 3: So if we follow the script again, that's the play

887
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 3: under boring early, exciting, late as the coaches make adjustments

888
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 3: and one of them is going to have to let

889
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 3: the quarterback go figure it out, and then I don't

890
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 3: want to be in the way of the under late,

891
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 3: but early on, I do think this is under and

892
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 3: wintery and gross.

893
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 1: The screams the type of game that my wife loves,

894
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:45,919
Speaker 1: where it's miserable and cold and disgusting and neither team

895
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 1: can do everything and everyone just looks like they hate

896
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,279
Speaker 1: being there. That's her favorite type of game to watch

897
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,760
Speaker 1: on her television by the fire while she's sipping coffee.

898
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 1: It's her absolute favorite to do bills at Jaguars Jags

899
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 1: plus one here totals fifty two. I am not shocked

900
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:09,280
Speaker 1: at the line, but it is a little surprising to me, Brandon,

901
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:10,719
Speaker 1: what's your elevator pitch on this game?

902
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 3: It is surprising. I'm surprised that Jags are home underdogs.

903
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 3: This is the game I'm most excited for this weekend.

904
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 3: I think this is the AFC king maker. I think

905
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 3: whoever wins this game as the team that I'm probably

906
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 3: gonna like coming out of the AFC. I thought the

907
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 3: Texans were the hot team. They are a nine game

908
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 3: winning streak, But I think Jacksonville, not Houston, is the

909
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 3: hot team in the AFC. You were on this a

910
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 3: while ago. Already, we've talked about this. Jacksonville has won

911
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 3: eight games in a row. They're third in DVA over

912
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 3: that span with a top ten offense, top five passing offense.

913
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 3: They're third on defense in that stretch, top five run

914
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 3: and pass defense as well. The Bills are not hot

915
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 3: at all.

916
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 2: The Bills are.

917
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 3: Bottom ten defense for the season. They don't have any receivers,

918
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:54,720
Speaker 3: Josh Allen's foot is injured, and they come in. Despite

919
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 3: all that, you still have Josh Allen and still have

920
00:44:56,560 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 3: the experience factor. But there's no question about it. Jacksonville

921
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 3: since the middle of the season has been by quite

922
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 3: a bit, actually better than the Bills. Buffalo's defense I

923
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 3: think is the weak link here, especially the run defense.

924
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 3: So the question is can Jacksonville do anything about that.

925
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 3: Early on exciting with Liam Cohen was that they suddenly

926
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:17,439
Speaker 3: have the run game that happened with Campbell last year.

927
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 3: Liam Cohen takes over the offense, they suddenly are running great.

928
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 3: Jacksonville ran well early but bottom five running later in

929
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 3: the season, so can they find a rushing attack in

930
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 3: this matchup? The Bills are bottom ten against motion, bottom

931
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 3: ten undersender. They're thirtieth against the run by EPA. The

932
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 3: Jaguars around midseason, we're third in EPA per run and

933
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,959
Speaker 3: they finished around league gowage, so it tailed way off late.

934
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 3: I'm banking on Cohen finding something with all the motion,

935
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 3: something with Frankly McDermott's defense that tends to get exposed

936
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,760
Speaker 3: Europ to year when the Bills get eliminated in the playoffs,

937
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 3: usually by your team, Matt, but by somebody, the Bills

938
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 3: defense gets exposed. Jacksonville's explosives way up offensively since mid season,

939
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 3: Buffalo bottom ten.

940
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 2: There.

941
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 3: I think ETN can rip off a long run and

942
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 3: they can hit some big passes downfield. And then, speaking

943
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:10,280
Speaker 3: of run defense on the other side, Jacksonville's run defense,

944
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 3: it's been elite, no seventy five yard runners allowed all season. However,

945
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 3: they're better outside. The Bills are a more over a

946
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 3: power run team. Where Jacksonville has been beaten a little

947
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 3: bit this season, So that is the big matchup is

948
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 3: run defense both ways. But I just think Jacksonville is

949
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,760
Speaker 3: the better team in the back half of the season.

950
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 3: They're better on defense by far. They might be better

951
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 3: on offense the numbers say they are. They're better on

952
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 3: special teams too. We talk all the last month the

953
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 3: whole MVP thing about Drake May and strength to schedule, Well,

954
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 3: Buffalo is the same thing. Buffalo is also totally on TESTA.

955
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 3: They've played one opponent in the top ten DVA all season,

956
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 3: that was Houston. Jacksonville is better than Houston. I think

957
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 3: this is Buffalo's hardest game they'll play all season, not

958
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,319
Speaker 3: just because playoffs. I think this is their toughest.

959
00:46:58,120 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 2: Point they'll play.

960
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 3: And coming to last weekend teams that were locked in

961
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 3: the playoffs, the Bills were one and three against those teams. So,

962
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 3: not counting Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa, Carolina teams we think are

963
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 3: actually good, the Bills are one and three. They were

964
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:15,760
Speaker 3: bad in all those games. They scored twelve twenty nineteen

965
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 3: and then seven in the first half against the Patriots,

966
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 3: and then they had one good first half and second

967
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 3: half against the Patriots to come back and get that game.

968
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:27,720
Speaker 3: And Buffalo also last thing here. They have been really,

969
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 3: really mediocre on the road for a while now, for

970
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 3: three seasons they are fourteen and twelve on the road.

971
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:36,760
Speaker 3: Here's the quarterbacks they've beaten on the road during last stretch.

972
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 3: Mn's start with the good ones and then it gets

973
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 3: really ugly. They got Mahomes once, they got Drake May

974
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:44,839
Speaker 3: once this year. Jared Goff, that's third on the list.

975
00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 3: That's how quickly we're going here. Rogers Tua twice each,

976
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 3: Gino Flacco, Fields, Dalton, Sam Howell, Easton Stick and sder Sanders.

977
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 3: These are the mighty teams the Bills are beating on

978
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 3: the road to claw their way to five hundred, as

979
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 3: they been the Super Bowl juggernaut this whole time. Josh

980
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 3: Allen is winless on the road in the playoffs. He's

981
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 3: also winless covering. He's going to four straight up and

982
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:11,879
Speaker 3: ats the builds him not won a road playoff game

983
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 3: since nineteen ninety three. Jacksonville has been a much better

984
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 3: team at home this season. Top ten offense, top five defense.

985
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 3: Everything in me thinks Jacksonville is the right side here,

986
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 3: but everything in me is terrified of Josh Allen because

987
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 3: we keep seeing what he does every year. So that's

988
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 3: my cap on the game. I am leading Jacksonville. I

989
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 3: will make a best bet play on it. But what

990
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 3: trends do you have in this matchup?

991
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 1: So I want to kind of circle in on the

992
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,759
Speaker 1: fact of just like most of us, I think most

993
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 1: people in the sports betting space and generally in the

994
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 1: in the NFL side that I pay attention to, as

995
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,319
Speaker 1: I'm not in the NFL space, kind of like for

996
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 1: most of the year, we're kind of like, all right,

997
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 1: Jacksonville whatever, Wait, wait, all right, cool? Neat all right,

998
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 1: you want some games? Cool? And then this back half

999
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 1: of the year they won like, like you said, how

1000
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 1: many of they won straight?

1001
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 2: Six or eight? Eight?

1002
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 1: Done? Okay, eight games in a row like red hot.

1003
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 1: They are the got playing their best football at the

1004
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,959
Speaker 1: right time, right and doing all these kinds of things.

1005
00:49:15,640 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 1: And so one of the things I want to look

1006
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 1: at was like, all right, does this translate because I'm

1007
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 1: always skeptical when we do this I'm doing I do

1008
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 1: this in the NBA too, And it's like they're playing

1009
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 1: their best basketball at the right time, and I'm like,

1010
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:27,640
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. It matters how you played throughout the

1011
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 1: course of the fucking season. So I looked at this.

1012
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 1: This is this applies to Texans too, and I think

1013
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 1: it's fascinating. Teams with more than a six game winning streak,

1014
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 1: so you come in, you've won six in a row,

1015
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 1: six and twelve against the spread, like the exact opposite

1016
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:49,799
Speaker 1: of Hey, how like red hot playing the right top. Nope,

1017
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 1: don't cover the spread home teams who have won I

1018
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 1: want to look at, all, right, you were great down

1019
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 1: the stretch of the season, but you lost that. I

1020
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:00,399
Speaker 1: wanted to include the teams that lost the last game

1021
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 1: because there's a lot of teams that are like red

1022
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 1: hot and then they lose that last one because they

1023
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 1: said everybody, because they've already locked in the seed. I

1024
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 1: wanted to make sure to include those. So I looked at,

1025
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 1: are you seventy five percent of your last six games

1026
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 1: or better? Are you four and six, four and two

1027
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:19,280
Speaker 1: or better? In that spot, those teams are forty fifty

1028
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 1: and three, just forty four percent against the spread. Now

1029
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 1: that's forty four percent, right, It's like, this isn't some

1030
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 1: huge margin. It's just like you're under five hundred, you

1031
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 1: lose more than you win against the spread in those

1032
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 1: kind of spots. I just think that that's really fascinating

1033
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 1: that you have this in this entire situation where oh,

1034
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,120
Speaker 1: they're the red hot team. How do those teams do?

1035
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 1: Not great, not very well? But you mentioned I can't

1036
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:45,759
Speaker 1: still can't get my brain around the numbers. I know

1037
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 1: that you're not a big fan of the market ratings,

1038
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:48,879
Speaker 1: but I do think that this is like one where

1039
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 1: it's like, no one understands what the hell this is

1040
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 1: so Impredictable's market rating for this game? The Jacksonville Jaguars,

1041
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:00,919
Speaker 1: they do generic points favored how much. It's a power rating,

1042
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:04,319
Speaker 1: and the Jags are plus two point seven, so they

1043
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:06,759
Speaker 1: be favored by two point seven points versus an average team.

1044
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 1: The Bills are all the way down at zero point nine,

1045
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:16,439
Speaker 1: so or one point nine I'm sorry, two point seven

1046
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: to one point nine. So on a neutral field, you

1047
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 1: would have the Jags off of this rating as a

1048
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:25,359
Speaker 1: little less than the point favorite. It would be pick

1049
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 1: them heavily favorite Jags. It'd be like, I don't know,

1050
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:36,280
Speaker 1: like Jags minus one, fifteen twenty somewhere in there. Okay,

1051
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:41,359
Speaker 1: this is in Jacksonville and it's Jags plus one. That

1052
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 1: is it is thinking. Now, I will say, in our

1053
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 1: pro systems, the bets and the money are both in

1054
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:48,719
Speaker 1: on the Jags, and yet this thing isn't hasn't flipped. Now,

1055
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 1: it might flip on the end of the weekend. We

1056
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 1: might get to tip to kick off kickoff, and it

1057
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 1: might flip to Jags. But man, it is very interesting

1058
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 1: to me that everybody's like, wait, why the hell are

1059
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:04,480
Speaker 1: the Jags underdogs at home? And it hasn't moved Brandon.

1060
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:05,799
Speaker 1: That's my only kind of thought on this game.

1061
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting too because I wonder, and you can

1062
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,319
Speaker 3: maybe look this up while I'm talking. I wonder in

1063
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 3: those samples you just gave, how many of those teams

1064
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:16,720
Speaker 3: on the wind streaks are underdogs in that game, because

1065
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,320
Speaker 3: it seems like if you're on this huge win streak,

1066
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 3: you're gonna have this inflated spread, and that's probably why

1067
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:24,799
Speaker 3: you're not covering as well, because we're like, oh, you're

1068
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 3: invincible right now, we know that you're gonna win the game.

1069
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 3: The thing we think about the Rams and why their

1070
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 3: spread is so high even though they've lost down the stretch,

1071
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:36,240
Speaker 3: But those sorts of teams, the invincible teams, they're probably

1072
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 3: not underdogs all that off. I'm gonna guess that we

1073
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 3: just created a tiny little sample there. So I thought

1074
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,320
Speaker 3: coming into this week as I, okay, you got the number.

1075
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:47,600
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm one, that's it. It was the Commander's versus

1076
00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 1: the Seahawks in twenty and thirteen. That's the only time

1077
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 1: the team has won more than six coming in and

1078
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 1: been a dog at home in the Waldguard round.

1079
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna say that we're not going to add

1080
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 3: to that sample because if the money keeps coming in,

1081
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 3: Jacksonville are probably just going to get Jacksonville's slight favored

1082
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 3: and then that is all going to not apply to

1083
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 3: that anyway. But for me, what I found this week

1084
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 3: is that the more I studied teams and prep and

1085
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:11,799
Speaker 3: Jacksonville kind of like what you said, I was there

1086
00:53:11,840 --> 00:53:14,839
Speaker 3: with Jacksonville like a cute story. You're the hot team,

1087
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:17,280
Speaker 3: you haven't really played a new one. The more I study,

1088
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 3: the more stuff I'd dig into this week, the more

1089
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:21,560
Speaker 3: I like Jacksonville. They probably have all the teams that

1090
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:23,720
Speaker 3: stayed in the playoffs with the team that my opinion

1091
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 3: raised the most on and it's because time and again

1092
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 3: I think Matt that Liam Cohen should be the coach

1093
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 3: of the Year. I don't get to vote, but I

1094
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:35,840
Speaker 3: see so many coaching advantages with Jacksonville and what they do. Now, Look,

1095
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 3: they have the most penalties in the league, So I

1096
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 3: don't love that because that's a good way to lose

1097
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 3: a game. They have like one hundred and twenty penalty

1098
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:44,719
Speaker 3: yards and big pass interference plays and those kind of

1099
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 3: hidden yardage stuff, that's a good way to lose. With

1100
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 3: Josh Allen on the other side of the game. But

1101
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,400
Speaker 3: there's so many coaching advantages including and this is going

1102
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 3: to lead to my bet here, first half and especially

1103
00:53:56,760 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 3: first quarter. The Jags have been great this season first

1104
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 3: half eleven to six ATS. Bills first half have been

1105
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:06,720
Speaker 3: awful this season five and twelve ATS, Jacksonville's second best

1106
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 3: ATS first half. The Bills are tied with the Saints

1107
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:11,680
Speaker 3: for the worst team in the first half. The Saints,

1108
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:14,239
Speaker 3: who didn't win a first quarter the entire season. The

1109
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 3: Bills are tied with them as being so bad. Jacksonville's

1110
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,759
Speaker 3: even better in the first quarter. Top five offense in

1111
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:23,320
Speaker 3: the first quarter, bottom five offense in the fourth quarter.

1112
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:24,799
Speaker 2: Don't love that for.

1113
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 3: Jacksonville, stop going forward or even in this game, because

1114
00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:33,120
Speaker 3: to me, that's coaching. Jacksonville great in the Jacksonville great

1115
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 3: in the regular part of the field, not great in

1116
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:38,560
Speaker 3: the red zone. That, again, to me, is coaching. Coaching

1117
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 3: can solve a lot of things, but can't actually go

1118
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:43,640
Speaker 3: win the game in the fourth quarter. Can't actually go

1119
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:46,279
Speaker 3: throw the touchdown the red zone. Your player's got to

1120
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 3: do that stuff. I think Liam Cohen and this coaching

1121
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 3: staff Campinelli on defense too, I think they have elevated

1122
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:54,839
Speaker 3: and given them a lot of advantages in the games.

1123
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:57,399
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna have here, So I'm gonna play

1124
00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 3: just those advantages. My best bet here is Jacksonville, but

1125
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 3: just the first half Jacksonville first half plus a half point,

1126
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 3: it's minus one fifteen. I prefer that to the money line.

1127
00:55:09,280 --> 00:55:11,719
Speaker 3: Money line pushes a tie. We win the bet with

1128
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:13,720
Speaker 3: the tie here, So try to get that if you can.

1129
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 3: Or Buffalo's defense terrible in the first half all season,

1130
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,359
Speaker 3: especially better in the second half. And look, Raheem has

1131
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:22,760
Speaker 3: reminded us of this in our group chat Raheem palmrle

1132
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:25,520
Speaker 3: Cally here Now with the ringer, you don't get bonus

1133
00:55:25,520 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 3: points for betting against Josh Allen the playoffs or Patrick

1134
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:31,240
Speaker 3: Mahomes or whoever. It is like you don't get extra

1135
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:33,840
Speaker 3: money when your bet hits just because you pick Josh

1136
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:37,080
Speaker 3: Allen or Mahomes or one of the super signed quarterbacks

1137
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:37,560
Speaker 3: to lose.

1138
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 2: I fear Josh Allen late in the game. I don't

1139
00:55:40,680 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 2: want it.

1140
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 3: Just gave me the halftime and give me out with

1141
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:45,560
Speaker 3: my money. So I think if you like Jacksonville, if

1142
00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 3: you do think they win, I think you have to

1143
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:51,120
Speaker 3: bet more aggressively than just winning the game. I don't

1144
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:53,520
Speaker 3: love these minus one plus one coin flips. I don't

1145
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 3: see a lot of edge in those usually. So these

1146
00:55:56,719 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 3: are my top two AFC Power rated teams right now,

1147
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:02,040
Speaker 3: just out of Houston. I would make Jacksonville a slight

1148
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:04,200
Speaker 3: favorite at New England, who they probably play next week

1149
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:07,399
Speaker 3: team versus individual there, or they might get to host

1150
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 3: Houston or even Pittsburgh Jacksonville that which would suddenly put

1151
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:13,879
Speaker 3: them in a very good spot going forward. So if

1152
00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 3: you like them to win the game, I don't think

1153
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:16,920
Speaker 3: you bet them to win the game. I think you

1154
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 3: do more aggressively. Here's my bets Jacksonville to win the

1155
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 3: AFC six to one. That is a bet I'm putting

1156
00:56:24,040 --> 00:56:26,040
Speaker 3: in that is a fourteen percent implied. I have them

1157
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:30,520
Speaker 3: a nineteen percent. This feels to me like the Joe

1158
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:32,760
Speaker 3: Burrow Bengals from a few years ago that gets hot

1159
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:35,840
Speaker 3: in an open field, makes the Super Bowl and loses.

1160
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:41,360
Speaker 3: So escalator time, Matt Moore, just for you an exact

1161
00:56:41,400 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 3: outcome Super Bowl bet Rams over Jaguars in the Super

1162
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 3: Bowl forty to one. That's the bet on this game.

1163
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:52,680
Speaker 3: And one quick prop for you. If Buffalo can't run

1164
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 3: the ball because Jacksonville's run defense is good, and if

1165
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 3: ATN doesn't run the ball well, because it's a bad matchup,

1166
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,960
Speaker 3: who's gonna run the ball this game? Josh Allen is

1167
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,400
Speaker 3: plus nine fifty to leave the game. In rushing yards.

1168
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 3: I always look at allen rushing yards in playoff matchups

1169
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:09,359
Speaker 3: and open up thirty five and a half. That's hit

1170
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:11,920
Speaker 3: eight of thirteen. Yeah, we're just fifty one a game

1171
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:14,279
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, fifty four more in half of his

1172
00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 3: thirteen playoff games. If you want just that, fifty yards

1173
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 3: is about two to one odds. I think that's fine,

1174
00:57:20,200 --> 00:57:23,000
Speaker 3: But I think considering the running backs and the matchups

1175
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:25,400
Speaker 3: here Alan to leave the game in a rushing hope

1176
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 3: we get to like sixty sixty five and he wins

1177
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 3: by like five or ten plus nine to fifty. So

1178
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 3: Jags first half, that's the bestest, best bet, and then

1179
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 3: some of those escalators Jags ram super Bowl forty to one.

1180
00:57:38,280 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 2: Let's go.

1181
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 1: I'm torn because on the one hand, I'm like, oh

1182
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:44,480
Speaker 1: my god, We're actually gonna get the Jacksonville Jaguars in

1183
00:57:44,520 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. On the other hand, I'm like, this

1184
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 1: really advances mine. None of this season Matt counts because

1185
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:52,640
Speaker 1: Mahomes got hurt on what would have been the game

1186
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 1: winning drive, and so all of this deserves an asterisk.

1187
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:57,440
Speaker 1: And the way that you know that is the Jaguars one.

1188
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 1: The AFC doesn't count at all my agenda. So I

1189
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 1: appreciate that Wow rams over Jags forty to one. Nice

1190
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 1: Niners at Eagles. Eagles are four and a half point favorite,

1191
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 1: forty four and a half. I don't have a lot

1192
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 1: on this one because it's like the narratives are pretty

1193
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 1: much in line where I think, like all the stuff

1194
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 1: that the data is going to say, which is just

1195
00:58:18,240 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 1: like very simply like the Niners are just too.

1196
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 2: Hurt, right, Yeah, it really seems that way.

1197
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,080
Speaker 3: I guess somehow, after all the crap we've given Philly

1198
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 3: all season, it somehow feels kind of like everything's coming

1199
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:31,320
Speaker 3: up Philly. I don't know how we got here. Layne

1200
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 3: Johnson is back, rock Perty suddenly hurt. Trent Williams is

1201
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 3: still hurt with the hamstring. Pearsall looks like he might

1202
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 3: be out. They don't have any linebackers left in San Francisco.

1203
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 3: That's not great against the team that wants to run

1204
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 3: the ball game. It looks wintery in Philly, windy, rainy,

1205
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:51,240
Speaker 3: forty degrees. That's Philly ball they want. Sloppy. Eagles are rested.

1206
00:58:51,280 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 3: The Niners just blew their shot the one seed. It's

1207
00:58:53,920 --> 00:58:57,280
Speaker 3: just like everything feels they get broke. Philadelphia's away here.

1208
00:58:57,560 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 3: They didn't have to play the Rams or the or

1209
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:03,240
Speaker 3: the Seahawks here. Instead you get injured forty nine ers.

1210
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:05,840
Speaker 3: So that works out well. And if the Bears win,

1211
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 3: then the Eagles get the rematch against a bad defense,

1212
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:11,240
Speaker 3: and they also get to avoid the Rams and Seahawks

1213
00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:13,880
Speaker 3: again for another round. So I just think everything sets

1214
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:17,400
Speaker 3: up well for Philadelphia on the season, no doubt I

1215
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 3: like San fran better, but all the injuries, all the

1216
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:23,640
Speaker 3: matchup stuff as well, looks Philadelphia to me. We know

1217
00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 3: how bad Philadelphia's offense is last six weeks as A,

1218
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:29,960
Speaker 3: twenty fifth in DVA, twenty fifth in run defense. Those

1219
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:34,320
Speaker 3: are bad. Somehow San France defense is still worse. Jalen Hurts,

1220
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 3: we know it's bad against pressure. Niners twenty ninth in

1221
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:40,640
Speaker 3: pressure weight, thirty second and pressure to sack rate. Do

1222
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 3: you know that the forty nine ers have twenty sacks

1223
00:59:43,480 --> 00:59:47,640
Speaker 3: this season? Twenty? Nick Bosa is too off of the lead.

1224
00:59:48,120 --> 00:59:52,400
Speaker 3: He last played in September. September nineteenth was his last game.

1225
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 3: He's too off the lead. The leader has four for

1226
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:58,920
Speaker 3: San France, so they can't pressure Hurts. Philadelphia second worst

1227
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:02,040
Speaker 3: run stuff weight. Well, the Niners don't stop the run anyway,

1228
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:04,120
Speaker 3: so that's not gonna be a problem, and they play

1229
01:00:04,160 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 3: the most light boxes of any team in the league.

1230
01:00:06,400 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 3: They're thirty second against the run EPA, thirty second on

1231
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:12,840
Speaker 3: early down defense success rate. They can't stop even the

1232
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:15,400
Speaker 3: Eagles based on what the numbers are seeing. And on

1233
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:18,000
Speaker 3: the flip side, this is the part that really scared

1234
01:00:18,000 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 3: me away.

1235
01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:18,960
Speaker 2: In this game.

1236
01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:22,400
Speaker 3: Philadelphia's defense. We know with Vic Fangio, we know the

1237
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:24,600
Speaker 3: magic leap they've taken. They've been so good to this

1238
01:00:24,640 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 3: back half of the season. I think that this matchup

1239
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:30,400
Speaker 3: really tills Philadelphia's direction on that side of the football

1240
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 3: as well.

1241
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:31,480
Speaker 2: And that's the real.

1242
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 3: Problem Rock Purdy, who I think has been MVP level

1243
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 3: candidate if you'd played the whole season, but not by

1244
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 3: the numbers of good teams versus bad teams since he

1245
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:44,920
Speaker 3: came back from the injury, fifty four percent success rate

1246
01:00:44,960 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 3: against defenses that ranked twentieth or worse. Three games against

1247
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 3: defense is better than that. So if you're even a

1248
01:00:50,800 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 3: decent defense, not a great one, just better than twentieth,

1249
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:57,600
Speaker 3: that's Seattle, but it's also Caroline and Cleveland for a

1250
01:00:57,640 --> 01:01:01,320
Speaker 3: reference that drops from fifty four to six percent success rate.

1251
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:04,680
Speaker 3: We saw how bad that offense was Saturday night in

1252
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:08,240
Speaker 3: that game against the Seahawks. They disappeared against a good defense.

1253
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:11,840
Speaker 3: And the Niners' offense is not explosive this season. That's

1254
01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:15,120
Speaker 3: not how they win there. Matriculate the ball down the field,

1255
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 3: keep the chains moving, and they are number one outlier

1256
01:01:18,560 --> 01:01:21,360
Speaker 3: good on third down. Their number one outlaier good in

1257
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:25,160
Speaker 3: the red zone. Those numbers terrify me if I'm a

1258
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 3: better because you only get a few third downs and

1259
01:01:28,080 --> 01:01:30,760
Speaker 3: a few red zones, and it's real easy to be

1260
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 3: seven of nine and be number one on third down. Oops,

1261
01:01:33,760 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 3: I missed three of them and now I'm number thirty

1262
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:38,320
Speaker 3: two on third down on one game and it all

1263
01:01:38,320 --> 01:01:42,400
Speaker 3: went bad. Eagles are top five red zone and third

1264
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 3: down defense, and I don't think Sam fran can sustain

1265
01:01:45,480 --> 01:01:48,200
Speaker 3: those key down plays. And then here's the last thing.

1266
01:01:48,720 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan has faced Vic Fangio defense four times in

1267
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:55,120
Speaker 3: his career as at least defensive play caller, his team

1268
01:01:55,200 --> 01:02:00,320
Speaker 3: scoring those games six, nine, eleven and fifteen points ten

1269
01:02:00,440 --> 01:02:03,040
Speaker 3: points a game. The Niners attack the middle of the

1270
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 3: fields as much as anyone. Eagles are number one against

1271
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:08,120
Speaker 3: the middle of the field. Niners go short pass as

1272
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 3: much as anyone. Eagles are number two against short passes.

1273
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:13,800
Speaker 3: Eels are great against tight ends. George Kittle, Tanjas all

1274
01:02:13,840 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 3: those guys. Eagles play a lot of light box. The

1275
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 3: Niners have not run well on light box. They're thirtieth

1276
01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 3: and epa per play. So just across the board, I

1277
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:24,920
Speaker 3: hate this. I can't believe I have to look at

1278
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:28,320
Speaker 3: Philadelphia here, but it just feels like everything leans the

1279
01:02:28,360 --> 01:02:31,919
Speaker 3: Eagles direction. To talk to me about a couple of trends,

1280
01:02:31,920 --> 01:02:33,400
Speaker 3: because I have a couple of similar ones, and I'll

1281
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:35,000
Speaker 3: hit you with why I'm on the under and a

1282
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 3: little bit Eagles here.

1283
01:02:36,360 --> 01:02:38,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have much. It's mostly just like, hey,

1284
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:41,200
Speaker 1: you know, he's really good at home as Jalen Hurts

1285
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:43,960
Speaker 1: row straight up four and one against the spread at

1286
01:02:44,000 --> 01:02:46,120
Speaker 1: home in the playoffs, Like, maybe you should just back

1287
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:48,760
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts because he just does the thing in the

1288
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:50,600
Speaker 1: playoffs and that annoys me as a geez fan, but

1289
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:54,160
Speaker 1: it's absolutely true. He's five and one, four and two

1290
01:02:54,400 --> 01:02:57,520
Speaker 1: ats as a favorite outside of the Super Bowl when

1291
01:02:57,600 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 1: he lost to the Chiefs that one. Here, Shanahan is

1292
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:03,320
Speaker 1: only two and two straight up on the road in

1293
01:03:03,360 --> 01:03:04,880
Speaker 1: the playoffs. He's on to play four games on the road,

1294
01:03:04,880 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 1: which thought was interesting. He is uh four and oh

1295
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:10,800
Speaker 1: straight up and three and one. However, in the first

1296
01:03:10,840 --> 01:03:12,760
Speaker 1: playoff game that he plays in the season, So whether

1297
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:16,280
Speaker 1: that's in the wildcard or in the divisional, Shanahan does

1298
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:20,439
Speaker 1: pretty well. I think with that first game before they've

1299
01:03:20,440 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 1: got playoff film on him. I think it's kind of

1300
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:26,400
Speaker 1: the takeaway. I did like this one, the under in

1301
01:03:26,800 --> 01:03:29,919
Speaker 1: Sirianni wildcard games. He's played three wildcard games the under

1302
01:03:29,960 --> 01:03:32,000
Speaker 1: three and oh there's finny sample, but that was all

1303
01:03:32,000 --> 01:03:34,640
Speaker 1: I kind of noticed. I can't really go anywhere here.

1304
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:36,360
Speaker 1: I just feel like, yeah, the Eagles are going to win.

1305
01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:39,040
Speaker 1: The number is probably right. I just think it's like

1306
01:03:39,080 --> 01:03:42,440
Speaker 1: dead on what it should be. A market rating actually

1307
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:44,960
Speaker 1: has the Niners slightly above the Eagles. But if you

1308
01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:46,680
Speaker 1: take away a point for all the injuries that the

1309
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:49,160
Speaker 1: Niners are dealing with, and then you tack on home

1310
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:51,560
Speaker 1: field for the Eagles, given how good they've been under

1311
01:03:51,640 --> 01:03:54,520
Speaker 1: Sirianni with hurts, it probably comes out to four and

1312
01:03:54,560 --> 01:03:57,120
Speaker 1: a half. Like you're just probably on point here with

1313
01:03:57,160 --> 01:04:01,000
Speaker 1: where it needs to be. So that's really all I got.

1314
01:04:01,080 --> 01:04:02,080
Speaker 1: But you like the under here?

1315
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:03,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the under.

1316
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:06,840
Speaker 3: And it's why even all matchup wise and everything wise,

1317
01:04:06,920 --> 01:04:09,400
Speaker 3: leaning Philadelphia, four and a half suddenly becomes a lot

1318
01:04:09,400 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 3: of points in an Eagles game where we get like

1319
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:13,880
Speaker 3: a thirteen to ten final score. So I can't get

1320
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:16,080
Speaker 3: to a four and a half just based on that.

1321
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:19,160
Speaker 3: A couple other trends to add to why the Eagles

1322
01:04:19,200 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 3: look good. You talked about wild card teams that just

1323
01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 3: won their last game on a one game win streak. Well,

1324
01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:27,640
Speaker 3: the Niners the opposite one game losing streak. Roade wild

1325
01:04:27,720 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 3: Card five and sixteen ats twenty four percent. So you

1326
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 3: limped into the playoffs, you fell in the seeding. You're

1327
01:04:34,360 --> 01:04:36,640
Speaker 3: not doing well. And then here's another one. We talked

1328
01:04:36,640 --> 01:04:40,760
Speaker 3: about home wild card round teams that missed the playoffs

1329
01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:43,280
Speaker 3: hosting a team that had made it. How about the

1330
01:04:43,280 --> 01:04:46,160
Speaker 3: opposite that's this year. The Niners missed the playoffs last year.

1331
01:04:46,160 --> 01:04:49,080
Speaker 3: The Eagles won Super Bowl home playoff teams versus non

1332
01:04:49,120 --> 01:04:51,960
Speaker 3: playoff teams from last year twenty four eleven and one

1333
01:04:52,000 --> 01:04:54,960
Speaker 3: ats sixty nine percent cover rate for the Eagles in

1334
01:04:55,000 --> 01:04:58,520
Speaker 3: that spot. So I think the Eagles probably win. I

1335
01:04:58,520 --> 01:05:00,720
Speaker 3: think that they probably cover if I had to pick

1336
01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 3: a side, but I'm gonna stick with the under. I

1337
01:05:03,040 --> 01:05:04,840
Speaker 3: logged it on the app Monday at forty six and

1338
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:06,840
Speaker 3: a half. There's still a forty five forty five and

1339
01:05:06,840 --> 01:05:09,720
Speaker 3: a half out there Eagles under since the bye week,

1340
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:12,920
Speaker 3: which is starting November non including week eighteen in this data,

1341
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:16,480
Speaker 3: because they rested seven to one to the under. They

1342
01:05:16,480 --> 01:05:18,560
Speaker 3: were six and three to the over before that, so

1343
01:05:18,600 --> 01:05:21,160
Speaker 3: seven and one of the under after the buye average

1344
01:05:21,200 --> 01:05:24,040
Speaker 3: total just under thirty four points a game. In those

1345
01:05:24,080 --> 01:05:27,400
Speaker 3: eight games they played four playoff opponents of Mass Stretch.

1346
01:05:27,680 --> 01:05:30,000
Speaker 3: That total was forty one or below all four of

1347
01:05:30,000 --> 01:05:32,720
Speaker 3: those games. And a whole bunch of trends here quickly

1348
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:37,200
Speaker 3: again with the windy under sixty one percent, look this round,

1349
01:05:37,640 --> 01:05:40,440
Speaker 3: you should default to betting under. Here's a crazy trend

1350
01:05:40,560 --> 01:05:43,120
Speaker 3: that is just across any matchups as long as it's

1351
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:47,880
Speaker 3: not a division game outdoor, non division this round with

1352
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:51,080
Speaker 3: a total forty one or higher thirty five and nine

1353
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:55,200
Speaker 3: to the under, eighty percent under rate. You just start

1354
01:05:55,200 --> 01:05:57,360
Speaker 3: with the under on these matchups unless something takes you

1355
01:05:57,400 --> 01:06:00,560
Speaker 3: away from it, and then these are kind of good trends,

1356
01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:03,120
Speaker 3: but they go together. Home team off a home loss,

1357
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:06,480
Speaker 3: that's the Eagles since twenty sixteen, ten oh one to

1358
01:06:06,520 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 3: the under. We had that one earlier. Road team off

1359
01:06:09,160 --> 01:06:11,960
Speaker 3: a home loss, that's the Niners, same time frame, ten

1360
01:06:12,000 --> 01:06:13,880
Speaker 3: and out of the under by nine points a game.

1361
01:06:14,520 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 3: I don't trust the Niners to score here in the cold,

1362
01:06:17,600 --> 01:06:20,480
Speaker 3: Philadelphia never scores. I never trust them to score, so

1363
01:06:20,720 --> 01:06:22,439
Speaker 3: I just think this is a shut it down game.

1364
01:06:22,920 --> 01:06:25,720
Speaker 3: Forty five and a half, forty five, anything about forty four.

1365
01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:28,240
Speaker 3: I still feel good about all those. I'm gonna do

1366
01:06:28,360 --> 01:06:31,040
Speaker 3: that as my best bet, the under, whatever best number

1367
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:34,640
Speaker 3: you get, and a couple escalators under forty five and

1368
01:06:34,680 --> 01:06:37,240
Speaker 3: a half plus the Eagles money line because we can

1369
01:06:37,280 --> 01:06:39,720
Speaker 3: tell I lean Eagles here, I don't want the four

1370
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 3: and a half, but give me the money line with

1371
01:06:41,400 --> 01:06:45,280
Speaker 3: the under plus one fifty five. And then, Matt, you

1372
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:47,880
Speaker 3: coined this on a podcast you run with me previously,

1373
01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:51,040
Speaker 3: It's time for the mind shaft, the opposite of an escalator.

1374
01:06:51,440 --> 01:06:53,920
Speaker 3: Here's the totals in those eight Eagles games since the

1375
01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:56,800
Speaker 3: bye week. This is the whole game total forty seven,

1376
01:06:56,960 --> 01:07:01,800
Speaker 3: forty five, thirty nine, thirty one, thirty one, five and seventeen.

1377
01:07:02,280 --> 01:07:05,560
Speaker 3: These games are dreadful. Sunday afternoon is going to be.

1378
01:07:05,520 --> 01:07:07,880
Speaker 2: A dreadful watch. Five of the eight.

1379
01:07:07,720 --> 01:07:09,960
Speaker 3: Games at thirty one or last three of them at

1380
01:07:10,040 --> 01:07:14,440
Speaker 3: twenty five or less. So mindscheft season under thirty three

1381
01:07:14,480 --> 01:07:17,640
Speaker 3: and a half plus four sixty under twenty seven and

1382
01:07:17,680 --> 01:07:21,760
Speaker 3: a half plus eight seventy We saw a dreadful matchup

1383
01:07:21,760 --> 01:07:23,919
Speaker 3: for the last time. These teams playing the playoffs. Oh look,

1384
01:07:24,200 --> 01:07:26,560
Speaker 3: san Fran literally ran out a quarterback, So let's hope

1385
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:29,240
Speaker 3: we don't have that happen again here. But I just

1386
01:07:29,240 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 3: think we might get an ugly sixteen thirteen thirteen ten.

1387
01:07:34,080 --> 01:07:36,800
Speaker 3: Just get it over the line, and I hope as

1388
01:07:36,840 --> 01:07:39,640
Speaker 3: a as a Philadelphia hater, I'd love to see san

1389
01:07:39,720 --> 01:07:42,800
Speaker 3: Fran somehow pulled out. But just nothing makes any sense

1390
01:07:42,800 --> 01:07:44,680
Speaker 3: for me for the Niners to get over the line here,

1391
01:07:45,000 --> 01:07:47,360
Speaker 3: and I think everything is somehow lining up Philly yet again.

1392
01:07:48,680 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 1: Yeah this we're in San Francisco. I'd be hammering the

1393
01:07:51,840 --> 01:07:53,520
Speaker 1: Niners just based off with all this stuff I said

1394
01:07:53,520 --> 01:07:55,640
Speaker 1: out about the Panthers, because like the Niners be with

1395
01:07:55,640 --> 01:07:57,600
Speaker 1: all their injuries have been reduced to be in the

1396
01:07:57,600 --> 01:08:02,040
Speaker 1: Panthers in a lot of ways. But man, tough spot

1397
01:08:02,080 --> 01:08:04,160
Speaker 1: for them. Love the mind shieft good play there. I

1398
01:08:04,160 --> 01:08:07,320
Speaker 1: love that stat. That's stat on the totals non division

1399
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:11,680
Speaker 1: forty one and plus that's a great, great trend, Brandon.

1400
01:08:12,080 --> 01:08:12,440
Speaker 2: All right.

1401
01:08:12,480 --> 01:08:19,160
Speaker 1: Finally, the Los Angeles Chargers at the New England Patriots

1402
01:08:19,200 --> 01:08:21,400
Speaker 1: minus three and a half, Patriots three and a half

1403
01:08:21,439 --> 01:08:25,960
Speaker 1: point favorites, totals forty six and a half I will

1404
01:08:26,600 --> 01:08:28,360
Speaker 1: before you get the elevator pitch, I will just go

1405
01:08:28,400 --> 01:08:30,720
Speaker 1: ahead and like say, the big trend on this, the

1406
01:08:30,720 --> 01:08:33,320
Speaker 1: big thing on this is basically two things. It's rookie quarterback.

1407
01:08:33,400 --> 01:08:37,479
Speaker 1: Not rookie, it's first time quarterback in the playoffs times

1408
01:08:37,520 --> 01:08:41,080
Speaker 1: like crossed with the Patriots ring the schedule. Everyone's just like,

1409
01:08:41,120 --> 01:08:44,120
Speaker 1: they haven't beaten anybody, They've looked better than they actually

1410
01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:47,000
Speaker 1: are all season, Drake me in his first playoff game.

1411
01:08:48,160 --> 01:08:50,040
Speaker 1: But on the other side, everyone's like, oh god, do

1412
01:08:50,080 --> 01:08:53,160
Speaker 1: I have to bet the Chargers? Oh God, not the

1413
01:08:53,280 --> 01:08:56,280
Speaker 1: Chargers of all tats, Like I feel like if it

1414
01:08:56,320 --> 01:08:59,120
Speaker 1: was any other like if they had faced if this

1415
01:08:59,160 --> 01:09:03,320
Speaker 1: was Texans or pretty much any of the other teams

1416
01:09:03,320 --> 01:09:05,679
Speaker 1: that are dogs in the AFC, like Bills especially right

1417
01:09:06,280 --> 01:09:09,040
Speaker 1: this would this would be a much different line. But

1418
01:09:09,120 --> 01:09:13,599
Speaker 1: nobody is like, let's go bet Justin Herbert really banged

1419
01:09:13,680 --> 01:09:16,519
Speaker 1: up and injured on the road, Like nobody wants to

1420
01:09:16,560 --> 01:09:19,160
Speaker 1: do that. What's your elevator pitch on Chargers Patriots.

1421
01:09:19,400 --> 01:09:21,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's very much where I'm at as well. I

1422
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:23,360
Speaker 3: feel like I would have wanted to fade both of

1423
01:09:23,360 --> 01:09:25,679
Speaker 3: these teams, Like if you took the Buffalot Jacksonville game

1424
01:09:25,760 --> 01:09:28,160
Speaker 3: and flipped it so that those two were playing these two.

1425
01:09:28,560 --> 01:09:29,080
Speaker 2: I don't care.

1426
01:09:29,160 --> 01:09:31,240
Speaker 3: I don't need any more numbers, I don't need any lines.

1427
01:09:31,280 --> 01:09:33,960
Speaker 3: I'm just betting Buffalo and Jacksonville against these two teams.

1428
01:09:34,280 --> 01:09:35,960
Speaker 3: But we can't we don't have that when we have this.

1429
01:09:36,160 --> 01:09:40,200
Speaker 3: The Chargers are seventeenth and dvaway on the season. That's average.

1430
01:09:40,400 --> 01:09:42,439
Speaker 3: So are the Patriots they're fifteenth. I think these are

1431
01:09:42,439 --> 01:09:47,080
Speaker 3: two perfectly average teams. And when you factor in schedule strength,

1432
01:09:47,439 --> 01:09:51,759
Speaker 3: Patriots thirty second schedule offense and thirty second on defense.

1433
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:54,320
Speaker 3: That is the softest schedule in the league. They're one

1434
01:09:54,360 --> 01:09:56,519
Speaker 3: and two against teams that five hundred better. We've all

1435
01:09:56,560 --> 01:09:59,040
Speaker 3: seen that stat They're bad in the red zone and

1436
01:09:59,120 --> 01:10:01,160
Speaker 3: even the worse than the redond on defense. They're worse

1437
01:10:01,200 --> 01:10:04,519
Speaker 3: than the league red zone wise. On defense. Their run

1438
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:07,599
Speaker 3: defense cratered down the stretch. They were top five VP

1439
01:10:07,680 --> 01:10:10,240
Speaker 3: of per play first half of the season. They're thirtieth

1440
01:10:10,240 --> 01:10:12,599
Speaker 3: the second half of the season. And I know Milton

1441
01:10:12,640 --> 01:10:15,320
Speaker 3: and Williams is back. Congratulations. Have you heard of Miller

1442
01:10:15,320 --> 01:10:17,439
Speaker 3: Williams before Super Bowl last year? He's going to magically

1443
01:10:17,479 --> 01:10:19,519
Speaker 3: fix in a terror run defense. I'm not ready to

1444
01:10:19,520 --> 01:10:21,880
Speaker 3: put that just on him. There's more happening there. I

1445
01:10:21,880 --> 01:10:24,040
Speaker 3: think the way they play defense has been a little different.

1446
01:10:24,280 --> 01:10:27,479
Speaker 3: Their pass defense has improved, the run defense has created.

1447
01:10:27,880 --> 01:10:30,559
Speaker 3: But I don't believe in the Chargers either. They cannot

1448
01:10:30,560 --> 01:10:32,720
Speaker 3: block anyone. I think Matt, you and I would sack

1449
01:10:32,880 --> 01:10:35,240
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert if we were playing in this game. They're

1450
01:10:35,280 --> 01:10:37,920
Speaker 3: thirty first in a pressure rate allowed, thirty second and

1451
01:10:37,920 --> 01:10:40,840
Speaker 3: pass block win rate. But the Patriots can't really rush

1452
01:10:40,920 --> 01:10:44,120
Speaker 3: the passer. They are bottom five and sack differential themselves.

1453
01:10:44,600 --> 01:10:46,040
Speaker 3: Here's the thing where I get stuck a little bit

1454
01:10:46,080 --> 01:10:47,840
Speaker 3: that I don't know if I have a good decision on.

1455
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:51,000
Speaker 3: Jesse Minter is a guy that's going to be in

1456
01:10:51,920 --> 01:10:54,719
Speaker 3: your feeds a lot. He's maybe a Ravens head coach coming.

1457
01:10:54,960 --> 01:10:58,440
Speaker 3: He's one of these hot young coaches. I'm not convinced

1458
01:10:58,560 --> 01:11:01,479
Speaker 3: of Jesse Minter's defense. They are top three in amount

1459
01:11:01,520 --> 01:11:04,799
Speaker 3: of zone they play, top three most light boxes, bottom

1460
01:11:04,840 --> 01:11:10,080
Speaker 3: three most blitz. So to me, that screams profile of

1461
01:11:10,120 --> 01:11:13,040
Speaker 3: a defense that beats up on bad teams and gets

1462
01:11:13,040 --> 01:11:17,240
Speaker 3: shredded by an elite quarterback. All right, Well, MVP Drake

1463
01:11:17,360 --> 01:11:20,160
Speaker 3: May is that you can you shred a defense like

1464
01:11:20,200 --> 01:11:22,880
Speaker 3: this that is set to just kind of shell things

1465
01:11:22,880 --> 01:11:25,680
Speaker 3: in and keep it close. And the Charges are four

1466
01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:27,479
Speaker 3: and three against playoff teams, so they have a lot

1467
01:11:27,479 --> 01:11:31,679
Speaker 3: of games against them, but in those games they're among

1468
01:11:31,720 --> 01:11:35,200
Speaker 3: the playoff teams, they're the second best defense. They kind

1469
01:11:35,200 --> 01:11:38,280
Speaker 3: of jump up to Seahawks level, but they're the worst offense.

1470
01:11:38,280 --> 01:11:41,240
Speaker 3: They're worse than the Panthers against playoff opponents this season.

1471
01:11:41,240 --> 01:11:43,720
Speaker 3: That's how bad the Charges have been. Including Herbert, It's

1472
01:11:43,720 --> 01:11:46,200
Speaker 3: not been very good either. So that's the part where

1473
01:11:46,200 --> 01:11:46,639
Speaker 3: I get stuck.

1474
01:11:46,720 --> 01:11:47,120
Speaker 2: Is Okay?

1475
01:11:47,960 --> 01:11:50,400
Speaker 3: Is that defense the real deal so far the season

1476
01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:53,200
Speaker 3: and has been? I do think there are some real

1477
01:11:53,240 --> 01:11:56,519
Speaker 3: matchup worries for New England. They can't get Herbert under pressure.

1478
01:11:56,520 --> 01:11:59,360
Speaker 3: We talked about that Herbert is and the Charges are

1479
01:11:59,439 --> 01:12:03,160
Speaker 3: third on success rate on late downs. If the Pats

1480
01:12:03,160 --> 01:12:05,880
Speaker 3: can't get there, can the Chargers move the ball, keep

1481
01:12:05,920 --> 01:12:08,080
Speaker 3: the chains moving? I think they'll be able to run

1482
01:12:08,080 --> 01:12:10,400
Speaker 3: a little bit. Hopefully o Maryhampton gets to play in

1483
01:12:10,439 --> 01:12:13,720
Speaker 3: this game. The Patriots defense top ten middle of the

1484
01:12:13,720 --> 01:12:17,479
Speaker 3: field volume allowed Chargers attack there a lot, and again

1485
01:12:17,560 --> 01:12:20,760
Speaker 3: the flip side Patriots. This is the biggest stat here

1486
01:12:20,800 --> 01:12:24,240
Speaker 3: in this game. The Patriots are number one deep passing

1487
01:12:24,320 --> 01:12:27,519
Speaker 3: in the NFL, number one explosive passing the NFL, so

1488
01:12:27,600 --> 01:12:30,759
Speaker 3: the Chargers are number one against the deep ball. Chargers

1489
01:12:30,800 --> 01:12:34,000
Speaker 3: have a negative EPA per play this season on deep

1490
01:12:34,040 --> 01:12:36,679
Speaker 3: passes for the entire season, which is a crazy number

1491
01:12:36,720 --> 01:12:40,080
Speaker 3: to be negative after the whole season. They've had more

1492
01:12:40,120 --> 01:12:43,400
Speaker 3: interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed this year. And then one

1493
01:12:43,479 --> 01:12:46,439
Speaker 3: last thing. The Patriots have been the number one first

1494
01:12:46,520 --> 01:12:50,000
Speaker 3: half teams thirteen and four ats the Chargers are better early.

1495
01:12:50,120 --> 01:12:52,360
Speaker 3: In fact, they're the number one defense in the first quarter.

1496
01:12:52,760 --> 01:12:56,120
Speaker 3: So the Patriots can't front run off an easy schedule

1497
01:12:56,160 --> 01:12:59,240
Speaker 3: and suddenly find themselves in a dog fight. What happens,

1498
01:12:59,240 --> 01:13:01,080
Speaker 3: And I think that's what get here is a dogfight.

1499
01:13:01,120 --> 01:13:04,400
Speaker 3: I think that's what Jim Harbaio wants. Drag them into

1500
01:13:04,439 --> 01:13:08,400
Speaker 3: the mud. Play under another wintery, snowy night game here

1501
01:13:08,400 --> 01:13:11,160
Speaker 3: it looks like and in those seven Chargers games when

1502
01:13:11,160 --> 01:13:14,760
Speaker 3: they've played playoff opponents, all seven finished out of total

1503
01:13:14,840 --> 01:13:17,519
Speaker 3: forty three or below. So I think this goes under.

1504
01:13:17,560 --> 01:13:20,360
Speaker 3: We talked about that stat. I just gave you thirty

1505
01:13:20,400 --> 01:13:23,479
Speaker 3: five and nine eighty percent under is a non division

1506
01:13:23,479 --> 01:13:26,479
Speaker 3: outdoor games total forty on under above, and I think,

1507
01:13:26,520 --> 01:13:29,120
Speaker 3: if I look at this game, I see Charges good

1508
01:13:29,120 --> 01:13:31,920
Speaker 3: defense on the road. I see the Jim Harbor underdog script.

1509
01:13:31,920 --> 01:13:34,960
Speaker 3: He knows what to do, and I say, okay, if

1510
01:13:35,000 --> 01:13:37,680
Speaker 3: it's under, I have to like the Chargers getting three

1511
01:13:37,720 --> 01:13:40,320
Speaker 3: and a half. I like the Chargers in the underscript.

1512
01:13:40,960 --> 01:13:43,840
Speaker 3: If my instinct about Mintors defense is right and they

1513
01:13:43,840 --> 01:13:47,360
Speaker 3: get picked apart, I think it's over and Patriots. So

1514
01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:49,439
Speaker 3: I think that's the play here is. I don't feel

1515
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:50,599
Speaker 3: great about either side.

1516
01:13:50,439 --> 01:13:50,960
Speaker 2: On its own.

1517
01:13:51,360 --> 01:13:53,400
Speaker 3: If you like Patriots, I think you go Patriots and

1518
01:13:53,520 --> 01:13:56,040
Speaker 3: over together. I'm going the other way. Give me the

1519
01:13:56,160 --> 01:13:58,599
Speaker 3: under forty six and a half. Give me the Chargers

1520
01:13:58,640 --> 01:14:01,519
Speaker 3: plus three and a half together plus two forty two.

1521
01:14:01,560 --> 01:14:05,880
Speaker 3: I think those are correlated outcomes. Wild card hosts that

1522
01:14:05,920 --> 01:14:09,200
Speaker 3: missed the playoffs last year thirty two percent ats in

1523
01:14:09,280 --> 01:14:13,200
Speaker 3: experienced quarterbacks against experienced playoff quarterbacks thirty four percent. To me,

1524
01:14:13,800 --> 01:14:16,920
Speaker 3: it's under and Chargers or over in Patriots, and.

1525
01:14:16,840 --> 01:14:17,759
Speaker 2: I lean under.

1526
01:14:17,800 --> 01:14:20,320
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna lean Under and Chargers together, and then

1527
01:14:20,400 --> 01:14:22,960
Speaker 3: one last one. There are no numbers for this yet

1528
01:14:22,960 --> 01:14:25,280
Speaker 3: to give you, but I want once at posts and

1529
01:14:25,400 --> 01:14:28,639
Speaker 3: Omarion Hampton receptions escalator. Who had to get one escalator

1530
01:14:28,640 --> 01:14:30,960
Speaker 3: in here on the props. He played his most snaps

1531
01:14:30,960 --> 01:14:32,840
Speaker 3: of the season his last time out, and he had

1532
01:14:32,840 --> 01:14:35,800
Speaker 3: eight catches in seven games with fifty percent snaps. He's

1533
01:14:35,800 --> 01:14:38,160
Speaker 3: had five catches or more in over half of those

1534
01:14:38,520 --> 01:14:42,439
Speaker 3: Patriots top five at running back fantasy points allowed fewest

1535
01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:46,439
Speaker 3: but top five most running back receptions. They've allowed seven

1536
01:14:46,520 --> 01:14:51,400
Speaker 3: or more running back catches and sorry five seven games

1537
01:14:51,439 --> 01:14:54,720
Speaker 3: allowing five running back catches or more plus a couple eight,

1538
01:14:54,760 --> 01:14:57,000
Speaker 3: So watch the app for that. There are no numbers

1539
01:14:57,000 --> 01:14:59,880
Speaker 3: out because he is questionable with an ankle injury. But

1540
01:15:00,080 --> 01:15:03,679
Speaker 3: I look to play Amarion Hampton four catches, five to six,

1541
01:15:03,720 --> 01:15:06,800
Speaker 3: as high as eight and play the escalator there. This

1542
01:15:06,840 --> 01:15:08,720
Speaker 3: is the game I feel least confident about, so that's

1543
01:15:08,720 --> 01:15:11,320
Speaker 3: why I kind of have more more long shot plays here.

1544
01:15:11,680 --> 01:15:13,559
Speaker 3: But that is our Sunday night wrap up, and then

1545
01:15:13,600 --> 01:15:15,439
Speaker 3: we will get to the Monday night pick when we

1546
01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:16,240
Speaker 3: do the recap.

1547
01:15:16,560 --> 01:15:18,960
Speaker 1: All right, what a slate of bets from Brandon Anderson.

1548
01:15:19,560 --> 01:15:22,760
Speaker 1: So many bets, so many bets, so many unders, lots

1549
01:15:22,800 --> 01:15:26,040
Speaker 1: of unders. Do you want to very quickly give out

1550
01:15:26,120 --> 01:15:28,200
Speaker 1: your Super Bowl MVP bets because you found those today.

1551
01:15:28,200 --> 01:15:30,000
Speaker 1: There's an oracle up on Action Network dot com. In

1552
01:15:30,000 --> 01:15:32,240
Speaker 1: the Action Network AAP. You can read all Brandon's analysis

1553
01:15:32,280 --> 01:15:33,880
Speaker 1: on it. But you want to fly through that real quickly.

1554
01:15:34,160 --> 01:15:35,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, no cases here, I'm just going to give you

1555
01:15:35,960 --> 01:15:38,160
Speaker 3: the four bets again. Check the article. The whole thing

1556
01:15:38,200 --> 01:15:41,880
Speaker 3: here is look at the player odds versus the super

1557
01:15:41,880 --> 01:15:44,559
Speaker 3: Bowl odds and what percentage of a Super Bowl win

1558
01:15:44,600 --> 01:15:46,240
Speaker 3: do they have to win MVP and to get it.

1559
01:15:46,360 --> 01:15:49,080
Speaker 3: That's the angle. And my first beat coming out swinging

1560
01:15:49,280 --> 01:15:52,320
Speaker 3: was bone Nicks plus thirteen hundred because he only has

1561
01:15:52,360 --> 01:15:54,880
Speaker 3: to win in about half of Denver super Bowl victories.

1562
01:15:54,880 --> 01:15:57,240
Speaker 3: And another the one seed. The two I like best

1563
01:15:57,640 --> 01:16:00,320
Speaker 3: Jackson Smith and Jig But twenty eight to one Kua

1564
01:16:00,360 --> 01:16:02,519
Speaker 3: thirty five to one. Both would have to win around

1565
01:16:02,560 --> 01:16:04,960
Speaker 3: fifteen percent of the time in their team super Bowl chances.

1566
01:16:05,000 --> 01:16:07,240
Speaker 3: I want both of those. That's my big NFC pick.

1567
01:16:07,600 --> 01:16:10,639
Speaker 3: And then Sakuon Barkley sixty six to one, a matchup

1568
01:16:10,640 --> 01:16:13,200
Speaker 3: thing as well. James Cook one hundred to one less,

1569
01:16:13,240 --> 01:16:15,519
Speaker 3: so matchup for him. But look at the article. Look

1570
01:16:15,520 --> 01:16:17,640
Speaker 3: in the app you'll see the case for those and

1571
01:16:17,760 --> 01:16:21,400
Speaker 3: last pick here a contingent look ahead pick because we

1572
01:16:21,439 --> 01:16:23,439
Speaker 3: do have lines up at some books for what about

1573
01:16:23,439 --> 01:16:26,360
Speaker 3: the matchups we might get. Because this might be my

1574
01:16:26,439 --> 01:16:28,320
Speaker 3: favorite look ahead pick of the entire season.

1575
01:16:28,880 --> 01:16:30,479
Speaker 2: I can't believe this line.

1576
01:16:30,520 --> 01:16:32,360
Speaker 3: This is a multi unit play for me that I

1577
01:16:32,400 --> 01:16:36,200
Speaker 3: hope we get Seahawks minus three and a half against

1578
01:16:36,240 --> 01:16:39,080
Speaker 3: the Packers. I thought that was a misprint. I had

1579
01:16:39,080 --> 01:16:41,840
Speaker 3: to open the book and like checking is on my app?

1580
01:16:41,880 --> 01:16:42,120
Speaker 1: Wrong?

1581
01:16:42,160 --> 01:16:44,760
Speaker 3: Am I looking at check on the computer? I make

1582
01:16:44,840 --> 01:16:49,080
Speaker 3: this Seattle minus nine, Matt minus nine, and we have

1583
01:16:49,160 --> 01:16:52,240
Speaker 3: minus three and a half here, And look, the trends

1584
01:16:52,320 --> 01:16:54,719
Speaker 3: next week are gonna tell you you have to fade

1585
01:16:54,760 --> 01:16:56,639
Speaker 3: the rest of the one seat. That's what the trends

1586
01:16:56,640 --> 01:16:58,760
Speaker 3: will tell you. But that's because I think this number

1587
01:16:58,840 --> 01:17:01,960
Speaker 3: is wrong and going to get better up accordingly, Seattle,

1588
01:17:02,040 --> 01:17:03,720
Speaker 3: I have is a clear number two team in my

1589
01:17:03,960 --> 01:17:07,120
Speaker 3: power ratings. I have the Packers only had of Pittsburgh

1590
01:17:07,120 --> 01:17:10,639
Speaker 3: and Carolina among playoff teams. We talked about their defense

1591
01:17:10,640 --> 01:17:13,160
Speaker 3: fading hard. Seattle's gonna be able to score in this game,

1592
01:17:13,200 --> 01:17:16,200
Speaker 3: and Seattle's defense should attack a bad offensive line. They're

1593
01:17:16,200 --> 01:17:18,479
Speaker 3: gonna beat the run game. They're gonna limit those Packers

1594
01:17:18,560 --> 01:17:22,599
Speaker 3: explosives that we talked about. Seattle's one big problem has

1595
01:17:22,640 --> 01:17:25,559
Speaker 3: been giving the ball away. The Packers don't take the

1596
01:17:25,560 --> 01:17:27,400
Speaker 3: ball away, don't score that well, so I just don't

1597
01:17:27,400 --> 01:17:29,840
Speaker 3: see a lot of pads for them. Huge special team's

1598
01:17:29,920 --> 01:17:33,080
Speaker 3: edge for the Seahawks. Seattle six and two against playoff

1599
01:17:33,120 --> 01:17:36,040
Speaker 3: teams green Bay two and four. History is gonna tell

1600
01:17:36,120 --> 01:17:38,240
Speaker 3: us to fade this, but I think that's because the

1601
01:17:38,240 --> 01:17:40,880
Speaker 3: one seed tax isn't in here yet. It's already four

1602
01:17:40,880 --> 01:17:43,719
Speaker 3: and a half at DraftKings. I don't think the market

1603
01:17:43,800 --> 01:17:46,000
Speaker 3: respects Chicago enough that if Green Bay beats them that

1604
01:17:46,040 --> 01:17:47,880
Speaker 3: we're gonna get below a three. So I'm gonna grab

1605
01:17:47,920 --> 01:17:50,640
Speaker 3: this now. Sex minus three and a half against the

1606
01:17:50,640 --> 01:17:53,760
Speaker 3: Packers next week. Ridiculous line for a one seed that

1607
01:17:53,880 --> 01:17:56,840
Speaker 3: is way way better multiple units for me. My favorite

1608
01:17:56,840 --> 01:17:58,120
Speaker 3: look ahead of the entire season.

1609
01:17:59,040 --> 01:18:01,160
Speaker 1: If you need market right and you give them a

1610
01:18:01,160 --> 01:18:04,479
Speaker 1: full three points. For like, Seattle historically not as late

1611
01:18:04,560 --> 01:18:06,719
Speaker 1: much lately, but historically has been such a great home field.

1612
01:18:07,000 --> 01:18:09,240
Speaker 1: If you just give them, give them three points. This

1613
01:18:09,280 --> 01:18:11,600
Speaker 1: is nine point eight base off of those off of

1614
01:18:11,640 --> 01:18:12,560
Speaker 1: the market ratings.

1615
01:18:12,720 --> 01:18:14,040
Speaker 2: It's a crazy number.

1616
01:18:13,720 --> 01:18:17,120
Speaker 1: In line with brand's number. Yeah, that is a crazy number. Okay,

1617
01:18:17,240 --> 01:18:18,919
Speaker 1: that's going to do it. For the Action Network podcast

1618
01:18:18,960 --> 01:18:22,680
Speaker 1: for our NFL Wildcard Weekend Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings.

1619
01:18:22,840 --> 01:18:25,639
Speaker 1: If you want instant notifications when Action netw experts track

1620
01:18:25,680 --> 01:18:28,680
Speaker 1: their bets, just go to actionnetwork dot com slash pro

1621
01:18:28,800 --> 01:18:31,439
Speaker 1: and use the promo code pod twenty for twenty dollars

1622
01:18:31,439 --> 01:18:33,640
Speaker 1: off a year of Action Pro. If you have a yet,

1623
01:18:33,680 --> 01:18:36,719
Speaker 1: check out new AI quick slip bot on x Twitter.

1624
01:18:37,120 --> 01:18:40,160
Speaker 1: Just tag playbook at playbook and tell it to grab

1625
01:18:40,200 --> 01:18:42,479
Speaker 1: whatever bets you're looking for. It'll create a quick slip

1626
01:18:42,600 --> 01:18:44,640
Speaker 1: link for you in a matter of seconds. So many

1627
01:18:44,680 --> 01:18:47,080
Speaker 1: people are using this, like go search for at playbook

1628
01:18:47,080 --> 01:18:48,640
Speaker 1: and se how many people are using it in the

1629
01:18:48,640 --> 01:18:50,240
Speaker 1: ways that they're doing it. There's a lot of inventive

1630
01:18:50,280 --> 01:18:51,920
Speaker 1: ways to do it. Again, if you want to tell

1631
01:18:52,000 --> 01:18:53,760
Speaker 1: some of the best that we gave out today, make

1632
01:18:53,800 --> 01:18:55,200
Speaker 1: sure to look for the quick slip link in the

1633
01:18:55,240 --> 01:18:58,759
Speaker 1: podcast video description or go to actionnetwork dot com slash

1634
01:18:58,800 --> 01:19:01,960
Speaker 1: bet Now. You'll also check out our betting podcast with

1635
01:19:02,040 --> 01:19:05,719
Speaker 1: the NBA Buckets. It goes Monday, it goes yeah, Monday

1636
01:19:05,720 --> 01:19:08,240
Speaker 1: through Friday. We have episodes every single day. We're live

1637
01:19:08,360 --> 01:19:11,880
Speaker 1: on YouTube Monday night through Thursday night, as well as

1638
01:19:11,920 --> 01:19:13,479
Speaker 1: we have an episode on Sunday night that goes up

1639
01:19:13,520 --> 01:19:16,840
Speaker 1: on Monday mornings. Brandon evanill be back on Sunday for

1640
01:19:16,880 --> 01:19:19,320
Speaker 1: the NFL recap show. That'll be the livele on Actionnetwork

1641
01:19:19,360 --> 01:19:21,840
Speaker 1: dot com slash or I'm sorry YouTube dot com slash

1642
01:19:21,920 --> 01:19:25,000
Speaker 1: the Action Network shortly after Sunday Night Football. Thanks for listening,

1643
01:19:25,360 --> 01:19:27,480
Speaker 1: enjoy the slate, and good luck with all your bets

1644
01:19:27,720 --> 01:19:30,200
Speaker 1: this weekend. See guys again next time on the Action

1645
01:19:30,600 --> 01:19:45,240
Speaker 1: Network podcast.

1646
01:19:47,640 --> 01:19:51,120
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1647
01:19:51,520 --> 01:19:54,480
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1648
01:19:54,640 --> 01:19:57,280
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1649
01:19:57,320 --> 01:19:58,160
Speaker 1: hundred gambler