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Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, It's bull season.

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Speaker 2: It's the most wonderful time.

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Speaker 3: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 3: on Campus podcast brox you by bet MGM. This is

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Speaker 3: the College Football Bowl Betting Preview, Part one. I'm Stucky

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Speaker 3: in joining me as always is Colin Wilson. It's the

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Speaker 3: most wonderful time of the year. You ready to do

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Speaker 3: getn't do it.

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Speaker 4: I'm a little tentative after today, right, So you fade

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Speaker 4: Western Kentucky because they lose their quarterback. They've got nothing there,

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Speaker 4: and then I'm back out of the portal. I'm back

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Speaker 4: on the team, right. I mean, your handicap is shit.

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Speaker 4: Now you got to redo everything, your pools, your bets.

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Speaker 4: Like it's the same thing with Grayson McCall right, Stuck,

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Speaker 4: It's like I'm going to the portal after the bowl game, right,

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Speaker 4: I mean, this is it's been a yo, yo, It's

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Speaker 4: been a lot of fun. But man, this has been

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Speaker 4: crazy with the portal.

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Speaker 3: And it's not done now. It's every hour from the

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Speaker 3: time you know the season ender for each of these teams,

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Speaker 3: all the way up right until kickoff. Right, some of

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Speaker 3: these teams you won't know that they have eight guys

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Speaker 3: sitting out until the announcers are like, well, down to

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Speaker 3: John on the sidelines, is gonna tell us why Western

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Speaker 3: Kentucky is missing thirteen starters today? So yeah, then you

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Speaker 3: also have the added wrench of like illnesses going around everywhere.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, it's crazy. It's I love this time of

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Speaker 3: the year. Yeah, and you have to just accept a

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Speaker 3: couple of things like number one when betting Bowls and

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Speaker 3: I'm curious to just get your thought before we get

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Speaker 3: into the games year. We're gonna cover eleven games, by

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Speaker 3: the way, We're gonna cover the games that are on Friday, Saturday, Monday,

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Speaker 3: and Tuesday. This is part one of the bowl previous

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Speaker 3: Part two we will record this weekend. That'll be out

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Speaker 3: on Monday. We'll cover ten more bowls and then we'll

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Speaker 3: record Part three before Christmas. That'll come out on the

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Speaker 3: day after Christmas. Eleven more bowls than Part four. Nine

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Speaker 3: more will record that on the twenty seventh. That'll come

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Speaker 3: out on the twenty eighth. Yeah, busy schedule here, We're

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Speaker 3: gona have tons of episodes coming out.

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Speaker 2: You.

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Speaker 3: But when betting balls, I mean, for me, it's really

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Speaker 3: a payoff of watching and sweating all of these teams

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Speaker 3: all year, because it's way more than just science, and

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Speaker 3: like having a handle on motivation, which comes into it.

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Speaker 3: Getting a handle on who's playing is always a constant struggle,

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Speaker 3: but understanding the matchups and then having your numbers are

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Speaker 3: fined by this point and knowing matchups. So it's way

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Speaker 3: more than just science at this point, and it's a

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Speaker 3: lot of art. But you also have to accept that.

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Speaker 3: You just have to accept this, that you're you're going

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Speaker 3: to be way wrong on some bowls and way right

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Speaker 3: on some. I remember last year, I had Toledo just

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Speaker 3: I had a really good balls eason last year and

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Speaker 3: I got this always happens to the first ball if

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Speaker 3: you get the first ball wrong and you have like

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Speaker 3: a big following, oh look out on social media. So

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Speaker 3: I had Toledo was my first bet in Obama's ball.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to the Bomba's ball shortly and they just

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Speaker 3: didn't show up. That's gonna happen. A lot of this

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Speaker 3: comes down to motivation. A lot of this comes down

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Speaker 3: to you know, if you're gonna get lucky sometimes with

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Speaker 3: player availability, sometimes you know you just accepted and it's

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Speaker 3: fun and teams are gonna play loose, and there's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a lot of high variants plays and more fourth downs,

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Speaker 3: and so just accept that you're gonna be way wrong

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Speaker 3: on some balls and then you're gonna look like a

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Speaker 3: genius on others. But have fun with it. We have

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Speaker 3: a month, you know, a little less than a month's

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Speaker 3: worth of college football to get to it.

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Speaker 1: If you hate ball games, go listen to NPR.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad we're stopping to before we get into

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Speaker 4: everything to give everybody a little bit of betting advice,

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Speaker 4: and you know, brush yourselves up. Stuck is right. We're

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Speaker 4: gonna have embarrassing losses. We're gonna have games that make

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Speaker 4: us look like geniuses. And I think if there's one

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Speaker 4: thing I can talk about is I love to live bet,

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Speaker 4: and you guys will see it in the action app

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Speaker 4: from both Stuck and I Live bets will come in.

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Speaker 4: When we've established a position and we get maybe two

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Speaker 4: scores going our way, we have the option to come

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Speaker 4: in and buy the other side, and hey, we're free riding,

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Speaker 4: only got to pay the juice. That's completely different in

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Speaker 4: bowl season for me, there are teams that show up

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Speaker 4: and they are dead on arrival, and once they get

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Speaker 4: down by fourteen, it's maybe not the best bet to

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Speaker 4: go in and try to back them. There are teams

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Speaker 4: that are going to show up and they are not

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Speaker 4: going to recover. They didn't want to be there.

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Speaker 3: Maybe it's you.

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Speaker 4: Know, everybody's in cold weather, like San Jose State is

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Speaker 4: going to play in what twenty degree weather up in Boise,

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Speaker 4: you know. I mean, maybe there's a lot of reasons.

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Speaker 4: They just get off the bus and they're not there.

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Speaker 4: And I think from a live betting perspective, you need

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Speaker 4: to see proof of life before you hit the other side.

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Speaker 4: So I've seen enough bulls to know that sometimes teams

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Speaker 4: just show up and they never get off the bus,

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Speaker 4: and no live bet is ever going to cash on.

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Speaker 4: As Stucky would say, they are corpses.

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Speaker 3: I remember that tole Ogain. You could see on the

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Speaker 3: sidelines there was no life, there was no enthusiasm. Players

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Speaker 3: are just going through the motions. Yeah, a lot of

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Speaker 3: times you see it, like after a big defensive hit,

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Speaker 3: or it's just sometimes it's just not there. I mean,

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Speaker 3: he's ultimately are exhibition games, and then some teams inevitably

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Speaker 3: are going to care a lot more than others, the

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Speaker 3: Yukons of the world. So yeah, I always keep that

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Speaker 3: in mind. I also be remiss if I didn't mention

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Speaker 3: the goat rip Mike Leach, probably my favorite coach of

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Speaker 3: all time. I then forget like upset like celebrities, I

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Speaker 3: always like, but people, but Leach that got me. I

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Speaker 3: loved Leech always a big part of this podcast, and

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Speaker 3: he's kind of like an idol of mine in that

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Speaker 3: he obviously revolutionized football forever and one of the most

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Speaker 3: important minds in college football and then which led into

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Speaker 3: pros over the past ever. But he was also never

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Speaker 3: took himself too seriously. You know, I always admired that

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Speaker 3: Key West spirit and brilliant football mind mixed.

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Speaker 5: First of all, what kind of mythical powers does the

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Speaker 5: sun devil have? We got to consider that the Google

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Speaker 5: find a way, clear minded and crafty, a combination of

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Speaker 5: stay out of harm's way and attack when you get

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Speaker 5: your openings.

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Speaker 3: I hope one day to ever achieve as much success

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Speaker 3: as he did while also maintaining a lighthearted side and

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Speaker 3: not taking life too seriously. So Rip Mike Leach, and

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Speaker 3: thoughts are with any family and friends that are close

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Speaker 3: to him. But the college football world will certainly miss him.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, that was I went to SEC Media Days

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Speaker 4: for the first time this year and a little bit

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Speaker 4: nervous about Nick Saban. I didn't want to become a

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Speaker 4: meme with some sort of stupid question I'll get torn up.

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Speaker 4: But talking to Mike Leach when he's behind a microphone

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Speaker 4: or behind a podium, and just like maybe off camera

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Speaker 4: is the easiest thing in the world to do. I

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Speaker 4: have never met another human being that I didn't know

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Speaker 4: that seemed to be more like Kable as a person.

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Speaker 4: I mean, just it. It was one of those people

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Speaker 4: where you could have a five hour conversation and you

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Speaker 4: would come away smarter every single time. And rest in peace.

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Speaker 4: Horrible situation and as you know, somebody that's had I

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Speaker 4: know a lot of people don't know my avatars a

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Speaker 4: Royals hat because it belonged to my uncle and he

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Speaker 4: died of pulmonary embolism, like immediately, forty two years old

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Speaker 4: is gone, and it sucks, and it stinks, and yeah,

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Speaker 4: you cherish the time that you had with those people,

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Speaker 4: and I cherish every moment that we've had Michael Leach

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Speaker 4: and college football, So rest in peace, Coach le.

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Speaker 3: Each glad that he found a home and he ended

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Speaker 3: up moving to Key West. There was no one. I

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Speaker 3: think everyone in this world has a place where they

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Speaker 3: would fit most. Most people never find that where they

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Speaker 3: would fit most living wise, and he I think found

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Speaker 3: his spot in Key West. And he dealt with pneumonia

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Speaker 3: all season and just wouldn't stop coaching just because of

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Speaker 3: his love of the game. And at least he went

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Speaker 3: out doing what he loves most. So yeah, right, p

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Speaker 3: Micha Leach. No easy way transition up. But let's get

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Speaker 3: into the first of eleven Bowl games that will cover today.

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Speaker 3: Let's start on Friday, December sixteenth in the Bahamas.

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Speaker 1: The Bahamas Bowl.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to Nasau for the Bahamas Bowl, eleven thirty

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Speaker 3: am Eastern on ESPN. This game tends to be there's

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Speaker 3: some wild memories of bad beats and crazy games and

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Speaker 3: sometimes there's a lot of wind. And this game is

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Speaker 3: eleven thirty am Eastern, ESPN. Mi'm of Ohio takes on

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Speaker 3: U a b UA b tend and a half eleven

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Speaker 3: point favorite. Here over under sitting at forty four and

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Speaker 3: a half. I'll share my quick thoughts. One, I'm looking

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Speaker 3: to fade the MAC in general. I thought it was

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Speaker 3: a down year for the MAC overall, and I think

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Speaker 3: they might this might be one of the years if

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Speaker 3: they struggle in bowl games. Now that's very matchup in

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Speaker 3: motivation dependent. But it was just kind of an overwatching

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Speaker 3: thought that I had going into Bold season that said,

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Speaker 3: I'm not really in love with laying double digits in

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Speaker 3: bowl games, especially early on in these meaningless ones. You've

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Speaker 3: been a unprofitable proposition historically about forty percent against the

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Speaker 3: spread in those double digit favorites going back thirty years

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Speaker 3: in meaningless bowls, And if you strip away the college

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Speaker 3: wall playoff and championships, if you just bet every money

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Speaker 3: line underdog that's a double digit dog in bowl season,

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Speaker 3: I mean a one hundred dollars better would be up

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Speaker 3: about I think three thousand dollars Since two thousand and five,

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Speaker 3: ROI about thirty eight percent because a lot of times

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Speaker 3: it's just okay, the big there's a lot more variance.

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Speaker 3: Big favorite doesn't sho up as we talked about, and

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Speaker 3: they go down. But I just I can't get behind

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Speaker 3: my file here. I think it's UAV or nothing. I

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Speaker 3: think UAV is a bit undervalued still because they had

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Speaker 3: to play a bunch of games about Dylan Hopkins. They

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Speaker 3: also went zero to five to one possession games, three

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Speaker 3: of those in which Jacob Zino started. Conversily, Mina Ohio

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Speaker 3: had four to one possession wins, all against non Bowl

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Speaker 3: teams just to get to six wins, and there are

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Speaker 3: other two wins came against Robert Morris and ACT. So

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Speaker 3: it wasn't the best resume I'll ever see. Their star quarterback,

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Speaker 3: Brett Gabbertt is out and they have been able to

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Speaker 3: run the ball all year. Now that their backup quarterback

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Speaker 3: is mobile, he's gonna have to run here because you

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Speaker 3: can't really throw on UAB. You have to attack them

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Speaker 3: on the ground. But I'm not sure that Mina Ohio

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Speaker 3: is that team that can do that against UAB. Minele

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Speaker 3: Ohio is one of the most anemic rushing attacks in

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Speaker 3: the country. I mean, mile Hia's run defense is better

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Speaker 3: than their pass defense. But Dwayne mcbriden company one of

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Speaker 3: two offenses that average over six yards per carry this year.

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Speaker 3: I think he'll do enough on the ground to set

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Speaker 3: up some explosive passes that Hopkins can hit. Yeah, I

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Speaker 3: think it's UAV or nothing. I think that. You know,

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Speaker 3: they do have an interim coach, they hired Trent Dilfer,

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Speaker 3: but it's a veteran group. They fought hard down the

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Speaker 3: stretch to get to Boil eligibility. So yeah, I'm leaning

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Speaker 3: UAB here, Cools, I would go all UAV if you

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Speaker 3: just need to pick a straight up winner, maybe a

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Speaker 3: nice money line parlay piece. But maybe you'll make a

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Speaker 3: case for the RedHawks here.

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Speaker 4: What do you say the number is a little bit

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Speaker 4: too high. We start our handicap with a power but

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Speaker 4: then we work our way into it, so to say

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Speaker 4: that the numbers should be about nine and a half

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Speaker 4: and not eleven. So if you can gut it and

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Speaker 4: just take it blindly, you would. Both these teams should

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Speaker 4: be highly motivated coming in. Chuck Martin's in his third

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Speaker 4: Bowl game. You know, he won the Frisco Bowl with

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Speaker 4: Miami Ohio last year. Team's amped about not just getting

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Speaker 4: to a bowl but going to a warm vacation destination.

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Speaker 4: And Stug mentioned Tren Dilfer. But there's a lot of

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Speaker 4: things going on internally there. These players wanted Brian Vincent,

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Speaker 4: the interim coach, the offensive coordinator who's been there since

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Speaker 4: Bill Clark revamped, the program came back from the dead.

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Speaker 4: The players wrote letters to the administration they wanted Brian

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Speaker 4: Vincent to be the head coach. They didn't listen. They

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Speaker 4: went with Trent Dilfer. And now you have Trent Dilpher

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Speaker 4: coming out in the press and he's like, I'm running

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Speaker 4: coffee for the coaches, I'm picking up pads for the players.

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Speaker 4: I'm doing everything I can to help this program secure

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Speaker 4: Bowl victory. So I don't think there's any drama there.

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Speaker 4: But the players really want to play for Brian Vincent

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Speaker 4: here it'll be the last time that they'll get to

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Speaker 4: play underneath him, and so you think that this is

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Speaker 4: a highly devate spot for UAB, and Stuck is right.

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Speaker 4: You can't really pay attention to the Blazers numbers because

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Speaker 4: they were without their you know, star quarterback Dylan Hopkins

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Speaker 4: for a few games where we had to suffer through

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Speaker 4: zeno and turnovers. But the problem with UAB is their

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Speaker 4: defense has struggled this year with dual threat quarterbacks. Jaden

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Speaker 4: Daniels went for one hundred and eleven on the ground,

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Speaker 4: Frank Harris at Utsa had thirty five on the ground.

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Speaker 4: Those were escaping in third downs, but more importantly Liberty

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Speaker 4: Cayden Salter went for seventy nine a touchdown back in

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Speaker 4: Week two on the UAB defense, it's just been a

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Speaker 4: problem all season. And ad On Smith is the dual

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Speaker 4: threat quarterback that's going to get the start here for

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Speaker 4: Miami and he's going to get a couple of extra

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Speaker 4: first downs. He's going to extend third downs, So that

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Speaker 4: is something I would be looking for. The question is, is

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Speaker 4: Ken of Miami Ohio defense you got You really don't

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Speaker 4: want to bet on a mac defense, but can they

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Speaker 4: stop Dwayne McBride. Probably not. Miami Ohio is a top

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Speaker 4: ten defensive and opponent rush explosiveness thanks thanks to the

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Speaker 4: linebacker Matthew Sopick. The fifteen mile an hour wins is

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Speaker 4: why this total is down should be about forty seven.

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Speaker 4: The numbers down to forty three and a half. Not

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Speaker 4: much of a passing game coming from out of these

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Speaker 4: two teams. So you know, you ab never covered away

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Speaker 4: from home this year. That's in the back of my mind,

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Speaker 4: like they're going to be motivated. They have the statistical advantage.

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Speaker 4: They never covered away from home and they have trouble

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Speaker 4: dual threat quarterback so I'm back and forth on this.

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Speaker 4: In a pool, like if you had to pick a

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Speaker 4: team with the spread, I would take Miami Ohio. I

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Speaker 4: still might take them if you're in a straight up pool.

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Speaker 4: I agree with Stuck. You're taking UAB and playing some

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Speaker 4: points like we did in the confidence pool piece. But

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Speaker 4: I think Miami double digits is the play probably gonna

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Speaker 4: be worth We'll pull roll back the rubber band and

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Speaker 4: throw a hundred dollars at it, But Miami ohig would

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Speaker 4: be would be the play for me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I was Also, they're gonna be missing a couple

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Speaker 3: offensive linemen to hit the transfer portal, which is worth noting.

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Speaker 3: But you're right they did struggle with mobile quarterbacks, which

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Speaker 3: could be the best path for my high offense. And

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Speaker 3: you know, double digits is tempting. With a total this low,

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Speaker 3: I will say that I don't really get involved in unders,

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Speaker 3: or I try not, so I have a bit. But

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Speaker 3: unders that are under forty five or you know, forty

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Speaker 3: five or lower, it's tough in bowl season. I mean historically,

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Speaker 3: if you just bet every over that was forty five

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Speaker 3: or below, you're at about fifty seven percent in bowl season.

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Speaker 3: And I think the reason for that is, then sometimes

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Speaker 3: the number might be right based on the team's profiles.

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Speaker 3: But this is a bowl. Like a lot of times,

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Speaker 3: teams will play a lot looser in a meaningless bowl,

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Speaker 3: so you'll have, you know, more fourth downs. They'll just

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Speaker 3: you know, you'll see some trick plays. Why not just

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Speaker 3: throw everything in the kitchen sink out there, Which is

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Speaker 3: why it's tough, I think, to go under on these

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Speaker 3: totals that are below forty five. All right, let's move

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Speaker 3: on to our second game, the Cure Bowl. Let's go

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Speaker 3: to the Cure Bowl three pm Eastern on ESPN, Orlando, Florida.

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Speaker 3: UTSA taking on Troy. Troy is aish point favorite here.

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Speaker 3: I cannot wait for this Bowl game. When this matchup

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Speaker 3: for came out, I said, wow, this is this is

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Speaker 3: a great matchup. This is like reminds me of when

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Speaker 3: the March Madness bracket comes out and you say, wow,

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Speaker 3: what a first round matchup because this is one of

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Speaker 3: the best total skits, say the fifty five and a half.

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Speaker 3: By the way, one of the best group of five

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Speaker 3: offenses in UTSA led by Frank Harrison, a really good

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Speaker 3: wide receiver room against one of the best group of

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Speaker 3: five defenses in Troy, led by Carlton Marshall, who has

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Speaker 3: the all time FPS record for career tackles. We've got

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Speaker 3: our Mattion Network All American Team kind of a reward

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Speaker 3: for his entire career as most tackles in FBS history.

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Speaker 3: He's really fun player to watch. Troy is a really

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Speaker 3: good secondary as well. I sided with the better defense

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Speaker 3: here in Troy. Their offense also came on to end

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Speaker 3: the year. I'm also still not a believer in this

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Speaker 3: UTSA defense. They can be really exploited through the air,

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Speaker 3: especially with the short passing attack, which is where Troy thrives.

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Speaker 3: Toroy can't really run the ball, but that's Utsa's strength,

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Speaker 3: their run defense. I think Toy's gonna come out here

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Speaker 3: a lot of short passes with Gunner Watson, and they'll

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Speaker 3: be able to move the ball. And I think Troy's

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Speaker 3: defense will step up here. And look, UTSA is not

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Speaker 3: fully healthy. They lost a pair of their tackles, their

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Speaker 3: offensive tackles for the season. They lost their wide receiver.

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Speaker 3: According Clark, they also lost their defensive tackle Brandon Madison

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Speaker 3: and starting safety Rashad Wisdom is a really good player

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Speaker 3: for the season. We'll see if Brendan Brady, they're starting

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Speaker 3: running back, is healthy. In addition to tight end Gavin Sharp,

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Speaker 3: they could get Traylon Smith when he used to be

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Speaker 3: on Arkansas running back back from an injury. But they

336
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Speaker 3: are much more beat up. And if you look at

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Speaker 3: UTSA schedule, one of the things that I noticed, and

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Speaker 3: this applies to UAD as well, like there was no

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Speaker 3: good defenses in Conference USA go across the board. The

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Speaker 3: only good defense that Troy faced all that UTSA faced

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Speaker 3: all year was Texas, you know, and they had average

342
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,360
Speaker 3: three yards per rush and six yards per pass and

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Speaker 3: they lost by three touchdowns. But they didn't face This

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Speaker 3: is a big step up in class for them. So

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Speaker 3: I sided with Troy here. Metrics also suggests Troy's pretty

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Speaker 3: unlucky on late downs on both sides of the ball,

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Speaker 3: which tend to be a little less predictive than early downs.

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Speaker 3: And they're the much healthier team. So yeah, it's not

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Speaker 3: the most flashiest offensive Troy, but I think their defense

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Speaker 3: will be the difference. This is a Troy team that

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Speaker 3: just the market I don't think is giving enough respect to.

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Speaker 3: This is a team that without a Hail Mary by

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Speaker 3: app State in week two, they run the table after

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Speaker 3: losing to Ole Miss. UTSA also finished eleven to two,

355
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Speaker 3: rand the table and conference play. But there's a team

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Speaker 3: that I had a number of one possession wins, a

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Speaker 3: few in the final seconds. I think Troy gets it done.

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Speaker 3: I'm rolling with Troy here. What do you got You're not.

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Speaker 4: Are going to go up against each other, all right?

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Speaker 4: I mean the game should be a pick, right, battle

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Speaker 4: of Bowls season? Yeah, first battle of bole season. I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna go to meet me here. But the numbers should

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Speaker 4: be a pick and the total should be about fifty nine.

364
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Speaker 4: But when you throw in you know, Troy's defense, you

365
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Speaker 4: can certainly make a case to where if they win

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Speaker 4: this game, they're gonna get a lot of stops. First

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Speaker 4: ever meeting between these two teams, easily the showcase is

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Speaker 4: the UTSA offense against the Troy defense. And I think

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Speaker 4: Frank Harris announcing that he'll be back for UTSA next season,

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Speaker 4: that was you know, that was huge. You know for

371
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Speaker 4: Roadrunner Nation to come up with all that donor money

372
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Speaker 4: to keep him, that was impressive for them. And you know,

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Speaker 4: and they ponied up the money last year for Jeff

374
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Speaker 4: Trailer and now he loses his offensive coordinator, Will Stein.

375
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Speaker 4: He's moved on to Oregon. Jeff Traylor promoted from within.

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Speaker 4: Justin Burke has been an analyst for a couple of years.

377
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Speaker 4: He special teams. I think this year he gets moved

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Speaker 4: on up to offensive coordinator. I'm not sure. Very Lunny

379
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Speaker 4: Junior is still hanging around there, my old high school

380
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 4: quarterback I used to play against, but he's still there.

381
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Speaker 4: But you know, Trailer's offensive minded. He that's what he was.

382
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Speaker 4: He was a running backs coach at Arkansas and SMU.

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Speaker 4: He's likely going to call the plays. But he is

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Speaker 4: OH and two and bowls and UTSA is a program

385
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Speaker 4: ZH and three in Bowls. So both of these teams

386
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Speaker 4: should be highly motivated here. I think, you know, we

387
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Speaker 4: can talk about Gunner Watson. You know, he's got his

388
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Speaker 4: weapons and ray J. Johnson and Kamani Vidal on the ground.

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Speaker 4: But the handicap really to me comes on the other side.

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Speaker 4: I'm not really worried about Troy putting it up on

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Speaker 4: the UTSA defense. I think that is pretty much a wash.

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Speaker 4: And when you break down the Troy defense, we said

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Speaker 4: this before in the Sunbelt Championship, they are elite in

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Speaker 4: defending the past. Where they are not elite is defending

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Speaker 4: the rush. And you know, Troy's the bottom half of

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Speaker 4: FBS defensively in lineyards and stuff. Right, And if UTSA

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Speaker 4: decides to run the ball and Frank Harris decides to

398
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Speaker 4: get mobile, that's going to be a problem. And running

399
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Speaker 4: back of Worrian Barnes, he's had a season nine twenty

400
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 4: eight carries, one hundred and seventy yards against North Texas

401
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Speaker 4: in the CUSA Championship game and Frank Harris himself had

402
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Speaker 4: two hundred and seventy eight yards on designed runs with

403
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Speaker 4: six explosives. I mean, that's on the season, but I

404
00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 4: mean it's just it's a potent ground attack. Everybody thinks

405
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Speaker 4: of the air, but it's a potent ground attack. And

406
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Speaker 4: the question is can UTSA run on Troy. Troy allowed

407
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Speaker 4: Old Miss to go five point eight per carry, app

408
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Speaker 4: State went four point six. You know, those were the

409
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Speaker 4: two losses that Troy had. They needed sixteen points in

410
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Speaker 4: the fourth quarter to beat Ull. Ull average four point

411
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Speaker 4: six per rush and Ben Woldridge the quarterback, he had

412
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Speaker 4: two rushing TVs. That's something that Frank Harris can completely

413
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Speaker 4: expose so I'm on UTSA, you know, I'll be against

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Speaker 4: each other. I would play at one two, I'd play.

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Speaker 3: Pick Yeah, that Frank Harris's legs are definitely a concern

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Speaker 3: of mine. But this is a game where you can

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Speaker 3: I can see logical You just made a logical case.

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Speaker 3: You can make a logical case for either side on

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Speaker 3: which you value more, the Troy defense or the UTSA offense,

420
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Speaker 3: because literally Troy run defense has some issues. But overall,

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Speaker 3: this Troy defense is one of the best of the

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Speaker 3: group of five level and the UTSA offense is one

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Speaker 3: of the best at the group of five levels. So

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Speaker 3: it should be one hell of a matchup, all right,

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Speaker 3: So let's move on. So it's got a little appetizer,

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Speaker 3: a little you know, shrimp cocktail on Friday, and then

427
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Speaker 3: we really get into it on Saturday with six bowl games.

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Speaker 3: Let's kick things off with the first game. We're gonna

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00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 3: go pre noon Eastern again, eleven am Eastern on ESPN

430
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 3: in Boston, Massachusetts.

431
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 1: The Fenway Bowl.

432
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 3: Well, there's plenty of bar attenders the Fenway Bowl, or

433
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 3: really gonna hand to cap this Cincinnati Louisville. Louisville's a

434
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 3: one and a half find a one out there point favorite.

435
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 3: I call this the Mirror Bowl, not the Fenway Bowl,

436
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 3: because these two teams are like exactly the same. They

437
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 3: both have a backup quarterback, they both have an interim coach,

438
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 3: they both have a key receiver out, they both have

439
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,920
Speaker 3: a key defensive back out. They both you know, can't

440
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 3: run the ball. Both defenses are really good against the pass,

441
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 3: really good against I get getting after opposing quarterbacks. Their

442
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 3: defenses are a little vulnerable against the run, but not

443
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 3: sure that matters here. Louis also has their starting running

444
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 3: back out since he has their start tight end out.

445
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,479
Speaker 3: So you know these are former Big East rivals. It's

446
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:00,640
Speaker 3: the Keg of nails rivalry, the meet for the first

447
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,199
Speaker 3: time since twenty thirteen. That not only did these two

448
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 3: teams profile so similarly, it's they're gonna be the same sideline,

449
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,880
Speaker 3: like the same sideline. And Scott Sanderfield went from Louisville

450
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 3: to Cincinnati, but he's not apparently he's not going to

451
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 3: be involved in Bowl preparation. Gad, what you want to

452
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 3: jump in?

453
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just want to give you one more thing

454
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 4: for the Mirror Ball.

455
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 3: You're ready.

456
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 4: These two teams are one hundred and twenty third and

457
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty second penalties, but two.

458
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 3: Very heavily penalized seas like whoever since he was playing,

459
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 3: I thought they were going to be a potential corpse.

460
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 3: And then I was going to mention that in my

461
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 3: in our previews that their penalties have killed them all year. Well,

462
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 3: the same thing with Louisville. So uh it. So it's like,

463
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 3: all right, one thing Louisville has. So can Louisville run

464
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 3: the ball? I don't know. They want Elie Cunning and

465
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 3: they won't have Tyan Evs. They don't have their best

466
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,479
Speaker 3: receiver either. I don't think since he's gonna be able

467
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 3: to run the ball. They had Advan Prayer. Louisville's done

468
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 3: a really good job against Reid option, so that weight

469
00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 3: game against mobile quarterbacks this year. So I don't know

470
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 3: if when when in doubt in a game like this,

471
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 3: maybe it comes down to motivation, in which case I

472
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 3: would give the edge to Louisville. I think that they're

473
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 3: going to want to beat the team where Sadderfield went to.

474
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 3: I also am not sure since he's gonna be up

475
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 3: for this game. They really think, you know, Fickle left them.

476
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 3: They their last game of the year, they lost at

477
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 3: home with a chance to go to the conference championship.

478
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 3: And this is a team that was in the comfortable

479
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 3: playoff last year and now they're in the Fenway Bowl.

480
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 3: So I guess from a motivational standpoint, I'd give the

481
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 3: edge to Louisville, which is where I might go really

482
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 3: tricky game. They handicapped though apparently Sadurdfill's not involved in

483
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 3: the preparation at all, and he's going recruiting, but he's

484
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 3: going to be giving. You gotta think he's gonna be

485
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 3: involved in from afar, So yeah, both he's gonna be

486
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 3: the same sidelines. The way that Fenway is configured for

487
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,360
Speaker 3: this game makes some sense of this. I might throw

488
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 3: some change on Louisville just for fun. Yeah, this is

489
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 3: not a game you have.

490
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I believe this one caught a Bowl confidence pool

491
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 4: number of like two three four. It was. It was

492
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 4: way down there. But I mean you did a good

493
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 4: job set it all up. I mean, I just you

494
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 4: can't get over like how much these teams look like

495
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 4: each other right now. And I think he come down.

496
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 4: I think let's start with the quarterback. So if you go,

497
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 4: you know, Cincinnati's Evan Prayer versus Louisville Brock demand you know,

498
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 4: you know for Louisville brock Dome and started the final

499
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 4: two games for the Cardinals and on the season he

500
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 4: has twice as many turnover worth he plays as big

501
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 4: time throws a four to eight rates.

502
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 3: He's just like he's kind of a to give people

503
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 3: who haven't seen him. He's kind of like a like

504
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,439
Speaker 3: a Taylor Heineke of college football, Like he has a

505
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 3: pretty stronger but he'll just he'll he'll throw it all

506
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 3: over whether it's there's a tight window or not, which

507
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 3: can lead to some pretty high variants and a lot

508
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 3: of turnover worthy plays.

509
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 4: It's a good comparison, especially from like a dual threat standpoint,

510
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 4: because he only completes not even fifty percent of his passes.

511
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 4: But he has designed runs in his games, but nothing

512
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 4: that makes you look at him and say that's a

513
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 4: dual threat quarterback, right, I mean, yeah, he's not only Cunningham.

514
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 4: There's a huge difference in tackling here. Cincinnati is thirty

515
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 4: second in tackling. They're much better at it than Louisville,

516
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 4: who is one hundred and twenty second Louisville with a

517
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 4: short end of the seasons, shy six, the coverage grading,

518
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 4: the standard down success rate, the third down conversions, all

519
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 4: of these things favor Cincinnati. So I know that we're

520
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 4: missing so many pieces on both sides of the ball,

521
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 4: but when you look at the defenses and how they

522
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 4: tackle and how they handle third down conversions, it favors Cincinnati.

523
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 4: So gonna make a pick in a pool, Gonna make

524
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 4: a pick, you know, against the spread? The Bearcats would

525
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 4: be the way I go. But I am not dying

526
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 4: on a hill for that. They're on the same sideline.

527
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 4: How many fights?

528
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 3: Yeah? That it should be eleven thirty am East Tieway Park.

529
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 3: What a game, the essence of ball season. And a

530
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 3: reminder if you don't bet on a bowl game, did

531
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 3: it even happen? If you don't bet on a bowl

532
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 3: even exist?

533
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 4: Are you pro or anti baseball park balls? Because we're

534
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 4: finally getting the pet COO, We're finally getting the finway,

535
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 4: the COVID thing.

536
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 3: I'm pro any any any venue. I don't care as

537
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 3: long as it's a bowl game being played. They played

538
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,719
Speaker 3: on the moon, don't I don't care. As long as

539
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 3: there's a line we'lls.

540
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 2: Go to the afternoon too, thirty eastern on ESPN the

541
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: Las Vegas Bowl Vega Florida, Oregon State Oregon State ten

542
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,919
Speaker 2: ish point favored over under fifty three. I guess this

543
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 2: game is eleven thirty am local time. A lot of

544
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 2: these morning bowls, which is maybe a little rough for Florida,

545
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 2: but they've they've had time to adjust. This game is

546
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 2: in Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada, two thirty eastern on ESPN.

547
00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: It's the only Power five matchup on Saturday. The lot

548
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 2: of things to mention here, especially on the Florida side. Well,

549
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 2: when I first when I look at this, it's like,

550
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 2: all right, two really good rushing attacks to really run

551
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 2: heavy teams with really good offensive lines against defenses that

552
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 2: really struggled to stop the run all year.

553
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 3: So and it's on a fast track. Florida's defense was

554
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,639
Speaker 3: horrible all year. They will be without a number of

555
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 3: key pieces, I mean, defensive lineman Jalen Lee, their star

556
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 3: linebacker Ventral Miller is going to the NFL. Cornerback Avery

557
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 3: Helm and you know they dismissed Brenton Cox earlier this season.

558
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 3: They also won't have cheap orders, David Reeseloid, some are

559
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 3: all who are death pieces outside Umberger would have started.

560
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 3: So now they're going to rely on a guy like

561
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 3: Jack Piburn who's like a special team or to play

562
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 3: outside linebacker. Gervin Dexter is going to be a stud

563
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 3: in the NFL. Defensive tackle is going to go to

564
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 3: the NFL this year. He is going to play at least.

565
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 3: But the you know, Florida also will be without their

566
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 3: second leading receiver, Justin Shorter, their star All American offensive

567
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 3: lineman o Cyrus Torrents. Although they're backup there is pretty good.

568
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 3: Their offensive line is really good, and most importantly, they

569
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 3: won't have their quarterback Anthony Richardson and their backup quarterback

570
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 3: John Kittna's son was dispissed from the team arrested on

571
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: child pornography charges. But Jack Miller, who will start as

572
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 3: an Ohio State transfer, he was the back of coming

573
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 3: to the air at thumb surgery, so it wasn't healthy.

574
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 3: Four star kid so obviously, which I get, very very

575
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,479
Speaker 3: highly recruited, so very talented, and he's gonna he has

576
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 3: a really good backfield, you know, Florida excellent rushing attack

577
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 3: and he's going to have a healthier wide receiver coarter.

578
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 3: Even without Shorter available, Florida will get a couple of

579
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 3: wide receivers back from injury, and he will work by

580
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 3: an offensive line that'll give them time and a defensive

581
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 3: line for Oregon State that gets zero pressure, which I

582
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 3: think is huge for you know, an inexperienced quarterback in

583
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 3: Oregon State one hundred and twenty eighth in passing down

584
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 3: sack rate, so you know it's but there's a lot

585
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 3: of uncertainty there with with a you know, a kid

586
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 3: who was a third string on the depth chart a

587
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 3: quarterback a couple of weeks ago. This I think Florida

588
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 3: profiles is the potential. Like all right, in a bowl pool,

589
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 3: if you want to get crazy, maybe you go Florida

590
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 3: because you could argue that the more talented team. But

591
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 3: it all depends on what you think of Jack Miller.

592
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 3: I also would me. I'm also leaning towards the over

593
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 3: here fast track two. You know, poor run defenses against

594
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 3: two teams that can really run the ball, and I

595
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 3: think Miller can have some success. He's going to get

596
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 3: time to throw, He's got some weapons on the outside.

597
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 3: There's a lot of talent on this field on a

598
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 3: fast track in Vegas. What are your thoughts on what

599
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 3: Miller will bring to the offense, Because the other question

600
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 3: here is, like, Okay, Florida, they their running attack was

601
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 3: so good, and I mean, if you look at their

602
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 3: backs etn and company, they average like six yards to carry.

603
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 3: But how much of that will you know? Because Miller

604
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 3: doesn't have like the strongest arm in the world, but

605
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: he is a really good thrower and should have commanded

606
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 3: the offense by now. But he doesn't have the running

607
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: ability of Richardson obviously, So how much of like Florida's

608
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 3: success and in Napier's rushing offense of their backs are

609
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 3: because of the threat of Richardson? And how much will

610
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 3: that overall decrease? Now? Their offensive line does profile really

611
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 3: well going against a weak defensive line, and the same

612
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 3: thing on the other side of the ball, Oregon State's

613
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 3: offensive line is excellent. They should move the ball? Will here?

614
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts with Jack Miller.

615
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 4: It's like, you know, committed to Ohio State, no path

616
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 4: to playing time. He was highly recruited offers from just

617
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 4: about everybody. He transfers to Florida as a four style

618
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 4: pro style recruit. You think that maybe the passing game

619
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 4: could be decent here. And I think one thing that

620
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 4: you need to know about Jack Miller is that he

621
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 4: had a thumb injury this summer and he wasn't even

622
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 4: cleared to throw a ball till like a month ago.

623
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 4: So you know, we'll see how he comes out. And

624
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 4: that's what kind of leads me to if Florida has

625
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,959
Speaker 4: a pulse, this is a live betting opportunity. And I

626
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 4: say that because it's Billy Napier head coach, a.

627
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 3: Guy that we know.

628
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 4: He knows the number, he knows the total, he knows

629
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 4: all the numbers when he takes the field. So I

630
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 4: wouldn't be surprised at all if there's this mad rush

631
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter by Billy Napier. Even if Oregon State,

632
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 4: who is going to try to like grind this like nails,

633
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 4: I mean, what are they average twenty nine point six

634
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 4: seconds per play? Organ State's going to try to line up,

635
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 4: punch you in the face, run the ball, drain clock

636
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 4: first downs. But I agree with you on the over,

637
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 4: and the reason I agree with you on the over

638
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 4: is a Billy Napier b Florida's defense is terrible in

639
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 4: passing downs one hundred and twenty seventh and defensive passing

640
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 4: down success. Right, what does that mean? That means that

641
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 4: Damien Martinez for Oregon State is going to have huge runs.

642
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 4: He took over starting duties after the bye week. He

643
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 4: averages three point five yards after contact. He averages nearly

644
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 4: three fifteen yard plus explosive runs per game, and that's

645
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 4: just bad news for Florida defense. So every time Oregon

646
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 4: State has an explosive play on the ground, which they

647
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 4: will have, you can expect Florida to probably run a

648
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 4: little tempo or do whatever they got to do to

649
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:13,719
Speaker 4: try to keep up. Now, from a market perspective, you know,

650
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 4: I made this game like a field goal, and I

651
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,479
Speaker 4: knew that once Anthony Richardson was announced out, the thing

652
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 4: would steam all the way up. And the question is

653
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 4: is where is the buyback? Well, we found the buy

654
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 4: back in the market. Every sharp was circling eleven. Once

655
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 4: it got to eleven, that thing took massive number back

656
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 4: on Florida. So I think that's really your by point ten,

657
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 4: you're at Oregon State, eleven you're on Florida. If you're

658
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 4: playing this live, I just don't see Florida and Billy

659
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 4: Napier are laying down. They never have Jack Miller may

660
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 4: not be warmed up until the second half. I think

661
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 4: it is a prime spot for some live betting on

662
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 4: the Gators here. It's not the team that I think

663
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 4: is going to show. This is still a first year

664
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 4: coach and this is still players that are going to

665
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 4: be returning for this coach next year. So you know,

666
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 4: there's the rushing attack for Oregon State. Maybe it's a

667
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 4: great first half bet on Oregon State, but Jack Miller

668
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 4: try to show Chake some rust off. I think if

669
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 4: you don't have any action on this game, I would

670
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 4: either go over or I would say Oregon State in

671
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 4: the first half. I would be looking Florida in the

672
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:11,239
Speaker 4: second half because it's just not like them to give up.

673
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 4: It's not like Billion Napier to ever give up on

674
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 4: a fourth quarter in any situation whatsoever. So the numbers

675
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 4: oversold the market though I don't know if you agree,

676
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 4: but I mean eleven is where the huge buyback was.

677
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would I would mean Florida, and I'm gonna

678
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 3: put together a round robin Bowl season Underdog Part Life.

679
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 3: I might include Florida in there. Because what do you

680
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 3: want with a round robin? Now, I might go Oregon

681
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 3: State in like a pool, like confidence pool, picking them

682
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 3: to win, but with a round robin the upside there's

683
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainty with Miller, but he's really talented,

684
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 3: and then you could argue Florida is the more talented

685
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 3: overall roster. And I think that this will be turned

686
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 3: into a shootout. But it's a good point with Miller

687
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 3: potentially being a little nervous or rusty early and then

688
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 3: he can jump in on Florida live. But I do

689
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 3: think that the number is too high now with the Gators.

690
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 3: Both teams I think will be motivated napier first year

691
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 3: as coach. Oregon State completely flopped in their bowl last year,

692
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 3: so and I think Jonathan Smith'll have them ready fast track.

693
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 3: I think both offenses have advantages here, So yeah, I

694
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 3: agree on the over all. Right, let's move on.

695
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: To the LA Bowl.

696
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 3: I don't know if you know this, but I went

697
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 3: to college the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl. Another early star, This

698
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,439
Speaker 3: one three thirty Eastern on ABC. This is twelve thirty

699
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 3: local time. Is the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl. Still with a

700
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 3: Jimmy Kimmel Bowl in Inglewood, California. Maybe one day I'll

701
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,959
Speaker 3: get to be successful enough. They have a Stucky Bowl.

702
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 3: I'm trying to think where that would be played.

703
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 4: King of Pressiam Ball. Is that where you want it?

704
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 3: Key West? Like the high school stadium, Cox Republic? All right,

705
00:34:56,160 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 3: So Fresno State three point favorite here over Washington State

706
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 3: over under fifty five. I love Fresno State here. I

707
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 3: love them up to three. I think I took them

708
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 3: at one. I played them again at three, taking them

709
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 3: pools at three. I think they're still really undervalued in

710
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 3: the market after playing half their season without Jake Hayner.

711
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 3: The drop off to his backup is massive. To two

712
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 3: star Logan Fife. The Presidents had also made a few

713
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 3: schematic changes on defense late in the year. I started

714
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,439
Speaker 3: run blitzing a lot more, blitzing overall a lot more,

715
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 3: and it really paid off. Their defense really improved down

716
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 3: the stretch. They still remaine a little bit vulnerable against

717
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 3: the run, but you don't have to worry about that

718
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 3: against Washington State. It's one of the most past happiest

719
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 3: teams in the country with their air raid and that's

720
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 3: the strength of Fresno State's defense is their secondary. Also,

721
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 3: long breaks in between games for air raid offenses have

722
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 3: not worked out well in the past for former air

723
00:35:56,640 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 3: raids in bowl season. Plus, Washington State won't have two

724
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 3: of its top targets who enter the transfer portal at receiver.

725
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 3: They also on defense, I think they had a really

726
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 3: surprising year on defense, better than I expected, but they

727
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 3: will be down a number of key starters at linebacker,

728
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 3: including first team All Pack twelve NFL prospect Dayan Henley.

729
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 3: They also lost some defensive coordinator Brian Ward who went

730
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 3: to Arizona State. I think he's extremely underrated and he

731
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 3: will be missed here. So yeah, Oregon State, excuse me.

732
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 3: Washington State missing more key pieces at linebacker and receiver.

733
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 3: Fresno State, I think has the better matchup with their

734
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 3: passing offense. Two teams that like to throw the ball,

735
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 3: and I don't think Washington State is the team that's

736
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 3: going to exploit some of the run defense issues at

737
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 3: Fresno State. But they did even like I said, they'd

738
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 3: even address some of those run defense issues late near

739
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 3: go back to that Boise game where their defense was

740
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 3: excellent in the Mountain West Championships. So I think this

741
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 3: is all Fresno.

742
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, one percent in agreeance with you. Washington State losing

743
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 4: their top two targets, losing their two key linebackers. Defensive

744
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,879
Speaker 4: coordinator Brian Ward has left the program for Arizona State.

745
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 4: By the way, what the hell is happening down at

746
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 4: Arizona State? Where I think dj us gonna end up

747
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 4: story for next summer. Jake Dickert the head coach. He's

748
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 4: going to be calling the plays. I think on defense

749
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 4: he's going to be hands on for the Cougars, which

750
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 4: isn't a big deal. That's the position that he held

751
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 4: when Nick Rolovich was there, so it's nothing new for him,

752
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 4: but that will take up a lot of his activity now.

753
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 4: Jeff Tedford was really happy to draw this ball.

754
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 3: I mean, why.

755
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 4: Wouldn't you be his Fresno say, getting to go play

756
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 4: down in Sofi. He commented that after playing an allegiate

757
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,800
Speaker 4: in Vegas this season that SOFI was the next desired location.

758
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,879
Speaker 4: And you know, also on his roster all these Fresno kids.

759
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 4: If you've ever been by the way, airport code fat fat,

760
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 4: all these Fresno kids, they all come from southern California.

761
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 4: So SOFI is going to have plenty of Bulldogs support

762
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 4: in there, so that was a big win for Tedford

763
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 4: and the players. And you know, cam Ward is a

764
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 4: lot of fun to watch. He is a highlight reel.

765
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 4: But there is a serious problem with this Washington State offense,

766
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 4: and that is they cannot protect the ball from a

767
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 4: havoc allowed standpoint. This offense for Washington State is terrible.

768
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 4: Washington State is one hundred and thirteenth and tackles for

769
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 4: loss allowed eighteen fumbles, nearly half of them by quarterback

770
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 4: cam Ward this season. And as for the Wazoo defense,

771
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 4: defending the run has just been a problem. Home road

772
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 4: doesn't matter. And Jordan Mims is going to have a

773
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 4: huge day. He's guaranteed fifteen carries, He's guaranteed three explosive runs.

774
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 4: It's been his average per game. I'd stop buying this

775
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 4: at three. I think there's gonna be a lot of

776
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 4: three and a half show up on the market. I

777
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 4: would buy a three and a half minus one twenty,

778
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 4: I would I'd buy the hook down to minus one twenty.

779
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 4: If you're gonna play three and a half, I'd play

780
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 4: it for less. But Fresno State is the play here.

781
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, Fresnoe State. If you're ever in, you're in Fresnow.

782
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 3: You mentioned fat if fat try tip sandwich. That's what

783
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 3: they're famous for. Good to dog outs, girl, cutch a game,

784
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 3: get a try tip sandwich. But yeah, I agree, it's

785
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 3: Fresno here, all right. Let's move on to the next

786
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 3: bowl on Saturday, the Lending Tree Bowl.

787
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 1: The Lending Tree Bowl.

788
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 3: Hopefully after bowl season none of us need to get

789
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 3: in touch with a lender. Rice taking on Southern Miss

790
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 3: in Mobile, Alabama, five forty five pm Easter on the ESPN.

791
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:21,800
Speaker 3: Southern Miss is a six and a half point favorite

792
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 3: over under forty six. Rice into bowl season with a

793
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,839
Speaker 3: five and seven record. They got there because of their

794
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 3: There wasn't enough six and six teams, and they're they

795
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 3: had the best APR standing, which looks at like academics

796
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 3: and graduation rate. They're playing a postseason game for the

797
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,240
Speaker 3: first time. It's twenty fourteen. I imagine they'll be fully motivated,

798
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 3: and I also think Southern Miss will be motivated. They

799
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 3: won their season finale to get to six wins. They're

800
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 3: also making their first bowl appearance. It's a twenty nineteen season.

801
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 3: These programs are actually really familiar with each other because

802
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 3: they were both in Conference USA from twenty five to

803
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one. Before Southern Miss left with the Sun Belt.

804
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 3: They actually played less season Rice one at home twenty

805
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:06,240
Speaker 3: four to nineteen. Boat seams a lot of uncertainy at quarterback.

806
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 3: You never know it's going to line up under center.

807
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 3: For Southern Miss. It should below now based on the

808
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 3: past month. But you'll get Frank Corr Junior as a

809
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 3: stud back there running wildcat. He'll throw it too every

810
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 3: once in a while. He threw three touchdown passes on

811
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 3: just six completions.

812
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 4: And I don't think those are designed. I don't think

813
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 4: those are designed. I think he just does it on

814
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:23,439
Speaker 4: the fly.

815
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, someone will just shoot shootout on a go route.

816
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 3: And they also have a really good sometimes is a

817
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 3: really good receiver, but a really unsteady passing attack, which

818
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 3: might be welcome news for a Rice secondary that is

819
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 3: very vulnerable. I mean, we all remember Club Lit beating

820
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 3: them fifty six to twenty three at Rice or whatever

821
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 3: it was, So maybe the Rice defense can hang it.

822
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 3: They want to kind of slow the game down, grind

823
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 3: it shortened this game. They have questions a quarterback themselves.

824
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 3: It looks like as of now, your boy TJ. McMahon

825
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 3: won't be availab you might. I don't think that's confirmed yet,

826
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 3: but he's been hurt. They went five and three with

827
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,879
Speaker 3: him starting oh to four when he didn't, including three

828
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,240
Speaker 3: straight losses to end the season. When they scored thirty

829
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 3: four total points across those three games, Paget only completed

830
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 3: fifty percent of his passes and two starts. Doesn't have

831
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:19,399
Speaker 3: the running ability that McMahon has. Does have a rocket arm.

832
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 3: So we'll have to attack this really aggressive Southern miss

833
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 3: nasty bunch of defense. It's really good in the secondary.

834
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 3: We'll have to attack them downfield because they're going to

835
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 3: try to get turnovers, but they also a little vulnerable

836
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 3: to explosive plays. I'm just not sure if Rice is

837
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 3: the team to exploit them through the air or on

838
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 3: the ground. And this one might just come down the

839
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 3: turnovers though. I mean Rice turns it over more than

840
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 3: they had thirty giveaways on the ear only Northwestern had

841
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:48,960
Speaker 3: more thirty one. That could prove disastrous against Southern Miss

842
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 3: ball Hawking secondary led by star safety Jay Stanley. So

843
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 3: I mean, if a seven pops in the market, I

844
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,879
Speaker 3: might get tempted by you know, Rice in a game

845
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:02,359
Speaker 3: of a total sitting around four five. I also lean under,

846
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 3: but hate going under and bowl game, especially with all

847
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 3: the turnover potential variants here. Southern Miss also will throw

848
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,879
Speaker 3: their fair share of picks. So this is a tough one,

849
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 3: a game that I'm not really looking forward to, way

850
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 3: down on my confidence rating form. From a spread perspective,

851
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 3: if I had to say, I mean it would be

852
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 3: the Southern Miss defense will have the best Southern Miss well,

853
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 3: the best unit on the field with their defense, And

854
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 3: then maybe it just comes down to Jason Brownly, THEIRS

855
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 3: stud receiver in Franklin Junior, is awesome, just breaking enough

856
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:36,439
Speaker 3: exposive plays to get this done. What do you see here?

857
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 4: This number is too low. There is the number I

858
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 4: makes seven and a half. SP plus makes this eleven

859
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 4: and a half. This number should be higher, and I

860
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 4: think it's we just don't have a really high ticket account.

861
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 4: Nobody's really paying attention to this bowl yet. But I

862
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 4: just told you about a bowl game and so far

863
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 4: that has cam Ward and how he can't protect the ball.

864
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 4: Let me introduce you to Rice football. Thirty fumbles this season,

865
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 4: thirty fumbles, no one fumbled the ball more than the

866
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 4: Rice Owls this season. And when you're talking about HAVOC.

867
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 3: Thirty fumbles and thirty giveaways.

868
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 4: It's absolutely unbelievable. Now, we don't know if it's Wyley

869
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 4: Green TJ. McMahon. I mean, there's like four quarterbacks, right,

870
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 4: and the injuries were an issue down the stretch and

871
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 4: they did one just one of their five final five

872
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 4: games for Rice here. I mean, the team was struggling

873
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 4: and they just kind of apr which is amazing because

874
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 4: Rice is a really tough school. They aprd themselves into

875
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 4: this Bowl. And you know you mentioned the nasty bunch

876
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 4: of defense tenth in defensive HAVOC nationally. That comes from

877
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 4: one hundred and two tackles for loss this season. They

878
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,839
Speaker 4: just fell behind Liberty and Clemson in that area. That

879
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 4: means the Southern miss is going to be in the

880
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 4: backfield on every single snap. That is bad news for

881
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 4: the Owls who have fumbled thirty times. So don't see

882
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,840
Speaker 4: an avenue for Rice at six or six and a

883
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 4: half or seven. I think it's seven and a half

884
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 4: or higher. You're starting to maybe do more gambling, but

885
00:43:57,920 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 4: the number needs to be higher. So we'll see what

886
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 4: happens with the market.

887
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:02,359
Speaker 3: I'm actually starting to grade through the more I look

888
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 3: at my profiles, especially if Paget starts that I'm sitting here.

889
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 3: Rice head coach Mike Bloomingom confirms Paget is getting the

890
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 3: first team quarterback practice strips and preparation for Saturdays, lending

891
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:12,879
Speaker 3: Huger Bowl.

892
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 2: P J.

893
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 3: McMahon is not practice this week, and I think McMahon

894
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 3: is their best option by far a quarterback because he

895
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 3: can bring. He can bring a lot with his legs too.

896
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 3: And they went five and three when he started, like

897
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 3: I mentioned, h to four when he didn't, and they

898
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 3: just couldn't score down the stretch.

899
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:31,439
Speaker 4: That spread that I have at seven and a half,

900
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 4: that's that's with McMahon. I mean, you put Pageant or

901
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,280
Speaker 4: Wyley Green back there, it's it's a different story.

902
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it looks like it's gonna be Paget. So yeah,

903
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:41,399
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be tough sledding for Rice here,

904
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 3: assuming Southern miss shows up, which you know, you know,

905
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 3: you know, you never know it's they're playing Rice in

906
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 3: a bowl game. But I'm a big fan. I'm a

907
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 3: big fan of will Hall and they haven't been there

908
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 3: since twenty nineen. He's trying to get his first Bowl win.

909
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 4: I think the merch for this one, like do they

910
00:44:57,640 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 4: get do they get a loan?

911
00:44:58,840 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 5: Like?

912
00:44:58,960 --> 00:44:59,399
Speaker 4: Do they get?

913
00:44:59,400 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 2: What?

914
00:44:59,520 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 4: Do they get?

915
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 3: You get a better interest?

916
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 5: Right?

917
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 3: All right? Before we continue. As a reminder, the Big

918
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 3: Bets on Campus podcast is probably presented by bet MGM.

919
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,440
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932
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933
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935
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:03,160
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936
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937
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938
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939
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:13,880
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940
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941
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942
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,440
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943
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,800
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944
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:25,719
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945
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946
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:30,640
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947
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,440
Speaker 3: in Utah and other states were prohibited. Promotional offers not

948
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 3: available in Nevada and New York. All right, let's move

949
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 3: on to the next bowl.

950
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 1: Game, the New Mexico Bowl today live in lock which

951
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 1: manson tomorrow morning.

952
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 4: Lock with a bomb, doesn't matter which direction, though I

953
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 4: know New Mexico.

954
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 3: Compt more uncertainty at the quarterback position. It's the New

955
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:09,319
Speaker 3: Mexico Bowl in the Albuquerque, New Mexico BYU taking on

956
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 3: SMU seven thirty pm Eastern on ABC. SMU is a

957
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 3: five and a half point favorite here over under sixty five.

958
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 3: This is the first matchup between these teams since the

959
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 3: nineteen eighty Holiday Bowl, which BYU fans will refer to

960
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 3: as the Miracle Bowl, when Jim McMahon and that explosive

961
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 3: BYU oftense scored twenty one points in the final two

962
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 3: thirty three against the Pony Express SMU Mustangs to win

963
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:39,280
Speaker 3: forty six to forty five. What a bowl game. Similar

964
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 3: to that matchup, This matchup features two really high powered

965
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 3: offenses that can put up points in hurri against really

966
00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 3: bad defenses. These are two of the worst defenses in

967
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 3: the bowlfield. Now, this would be an easy overlook for

968
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:58,879
Speaker 3: me if BYU's starting quarterback was playing. It doesn't look

969
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 3: like he is. Karen Hall, their backup quarterback, Jacob Conover,

970
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:05,879
Speaker 3: another guy who's gone to Arizona State. He's a fourth star.

971
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,320
Speaker 3: He's no longer there, So now you're down to most

972
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 3: likely the third string quarterback who was a former Boise

973
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 3: State transfer, and Kate Finnigan. So we'll see if I

974
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 3: would imagine that Byu just leans on the rushing game here,

975
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 3: try to keep SEM's offense on the sidelines. And SM's

976
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:26,360
Speaker 3: run defense is poverty, so you would imagine BA, you

977
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 3: will be able to run the ball here on the

978
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 3: other side of the ball. I don't like Byu. They

979
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 3: don't have a defensive coordinator now they fired him and

980
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 3: should have. They don't have any of their defensive some

981
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 3: of their position coaches their strength on defense and it's

982
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 3: one of the worst defenses in the country. Was their

983
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 3: linebacker position that's decimated now because their best player enter

984
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:50,319
Speaker 3: the transfer portal, so they're down all their starting linebackers.

985
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 3: They get no pressure, they force no turnovers, they can't

986
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 3: get off the field on third down. They're not They

987
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 3: don't have a defensive coordinator of this game. I love

988
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:00,720
Speaker 3: the hire, by the way, for next year, Weaver State

989
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:03,480
Speaker 3: head coach who's going to be really aggressive, which they

990
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,800
Speaker 3: need because this teach just sits back drops eight. I

991
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,360
Speaker 3: assume that's what they're going to do here. SMU won't

992
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:10,959
Speaker 3: have the nation's leading receiver and Rossie Rice is probably

993
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 3: gonna be a first round draft pick. But I imagine

994
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:16,359
Speaker 3: that SMU with Tanner Morricone companies still shoul be able

995
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 3: to move the ball against this awful, horrendous BYU defense

996
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 3: that won't have its linebackers.

997
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 5: I don't know.

998
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 3: I imagine BYU. It's tough to know what you're going

999
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 3: to get from this quarterback, but I imagine they come

1000
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 3: out and run the ball a ton. They should have

1001
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:31,840
Speaker 3: success doing that. Maybe they try to shorten the game. Maybe,

1002
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 3: I don't know. It makes me sick to my stomach

1003
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 3: to think about even looking at Under with these two teams.

1004
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:40,360
Speaker 3: Knowing Dyu's defense at SMU played a game that finished

1005
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 3: seventy seven to sixty three in regulation. But you know,

1006
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 3: no Rice, assuming no haul sixty five. My thinking is

1007
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 3: PA's going to slow this down and run at a ton.

1008
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 3: Maybe Under. What do you see here?

1009
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:55,920
Speaker 4: How is this game being played at night and the

1010
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 4: Vegas Bowl is not? I mean by the fourth quarter

1011
00:49:58,280 --> 00:49:59,800
Speaker 4: of this game is going to be twenty nine degrees.

1012
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 4: It just that doesn't make any sense to me.

1013
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, that's another cap maybe for the under Yeah

1014
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 3: the Bowl.

1015
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 4: These two defenses are the worst of all the Bowl

1016
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 4: teams by US, Yeah, by US dead last and finishing drives.

1017
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 4: SMU's bottom ten defense and defensive havoc tackling finishing drives.

1018
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 4: So that's why Stuck is scared about taking an under

1019
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 4: area of two teams that allow maximum amount of points

1020
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,640
Speaker 4: once drives get past the forty yard line. Klonie Sataki,

1021
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,360
Speaker 4: they they you know, they bau fired their defensive coordinator.

1022
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 4: He took over defensive play calling after the Arkansas game.

1023
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:33,800
Speaker 4: They did have a coup and their new defensive coordinator

1024
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:37,800
Speaker 4: coming in from the fantastic FCS team that makes the

1025
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:40,640
Speaker 4: playoffs every year. So that'll change next year. That'll be

1026
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:42,439
Speaker 4: a part of the handicap next year. But for this game,

1027
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:45,320
Speaker 4: BYU has given up at least twenty six points, including

1028
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,839
Speaker 4: Utah Tech the old Dixie State. All their issues seem

1029
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 4: to come through the air. They have three hundred to Stanford,

1030
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 4: three hundred to Utah Tech. Something in coverage was identified

1031
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:58,400
Speaker 4: at half with Arkansas. And this is why I say, like,

1032
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 4: I know they can be beat through the air, which

1033
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 4: should scare you with SMU in line, is because Arkansas

1034
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:09,479
Speaker 4: identified something at half, came out and kJ Jefferson threw

1035
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 4: the ball on first down every single snap in the

1036
00:51:12,680 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 4: second half, and they waxed BYU. So something is going

1037
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 4: on against the pass with BYU and SMU.

1038
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 3: Well, I they get no pressure at whatsoever and their

1039
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 3: own you know, the secondary is bad and you get

1040
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:28,839
Speaker 3: no pressure. The only strength of this team was their linebackers,

1041
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:30,560
Speaker 3: who are all out.

1042
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then and then I flip over the other

1043
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 4: side of the ball. I've got I've got problems with

1044
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 4: SMU too. I mean you know that the.

1045
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 3: Prep probably the worst run defense in the in the field.

1046
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:44,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, but the prep for this bowl game has been minimal,

1047
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 4: at least if you listen to Rhet Lashley, who is

1048
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 4: really trying to balance a lot of things going on here.

1049
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:53,320
Speaker 4: He commented on his hectic workload from he's got to

1050
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 4: get stuff out of the portal. He has to go

1051
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 4: to these Texas high school football championship games because recruiting

1052
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 4: the state of Texas is the name of the game

1053
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 4: for his program. Period and so that doesn't leave a

1054
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 4: lot of time. And he's mentioned we're not going to

1055
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 4: use all of our Bowl practices, We're not going to

1056
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:11,359
Speaker 4: be completely prepared for this. He's saying that this Bowl game,

1057
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 4: just playing it, and this is what I thought was

1058
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:17,440
Speaker 4: key in his press conference. Just playing this game is

1059
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 4: a win win. It doesn't even matter what team wins.

1060
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 4: It's not going to dismiss what they did through the season,

1061
00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:27,359
Speaker 4: especially with US battling through so many injuries. And I'm

1062
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:29,760
Speaker 4: just like listening to this and I'm like so lashly

1063
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:31,919
Speaker 4: saying it doesn't matter who wins, it's just it's great

1064
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 4: that they both made it. I'm like, oh my gosh,

1065
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 4: Like where's the fire? You know? So the deciding difference

1066
00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:39,399
Speaker 4: in this game. Maybe BI used defensive ability to get

1067
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 4: some stops. I don't know. I mean, you know, I

1068
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 4: could try to, you know, put lipstick on a pig here.

1069
00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:46,959
Speaker 4: But by US thirty fourth and forty third against rush

1070
00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:50,359
Speaker 4: pass explosives, SMU's outside the top one hundred against both

1071
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 4: the ground and the air explosives. Quarterback Jared Hall is unlikely.

1072
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:57,919
Speaker 4: It's not that he's opting out for the NFL. It's

1073
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 4: more that he hasn't practiced at all. An insider within

1074
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:03,800
Speaker 4: b YU has said that it would be a miracle

1075
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:05,839
Speaker 4: for Jaron Hall to play in this game, and I

1076
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 4: believe that's the reason.

1077
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,280
Speaker 3: The wide receiver com on said filled the beans.

1078
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:11,640
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, So you and I are recording on Tuesday

1079
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 4: and this thing rushed up to five and a half

1080
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:17,440
Speaker 4: because of that news. This really comes to which offense

1081
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 4: is more fluent, efficient and gets their available yards and

1082
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 4: in the numbers that's actually BYU. So I don't I

1083
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 4: know even if Jeral.

1084
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 3: But that's with jarn Hall. What do you think about

1085
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 3: the drop off because it's now you're going to the

1086
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 3: third string because the second string and is a true

1087
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:32,400
Speaker 3: third string because the true second string who was a

1088
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 3: four star has transferred. It is tough. This is red.

1089
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 4: Lastly, is a brand new head coach. I mean, this

1090
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,840
Speaker 4: is a lot coming at him. I'm not sure he

1091
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 4: is going to be prepared, and I don't know if

1092
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,920
Speaker 4: I can put my money behind that. So I took BYU.

1093
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:48,719
Speaker 4: Most of these BYU players are pretty mature. There's not

1094
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 4: always a huge drop off, unless it's maybe Zach Wilson.

1095
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 4: It's not usually a huge drop off of players on

1096
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:57,839
Speaker 4: this team, but I'm going to back b Yu. All right,

1097
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,839
Speaker 4: Let's move on to the final game on.

1098
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,800
Speaker 1: Saturday, the Frisco Bowl, The.

1099
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:07,880
Speaker 3: Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas, nine to fifteen pm Eastern

1100
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 3: on ESPN, between North Texas and Boise State. Boise State

1101
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 3: eleven point favorite here over under fifty seven fifty seven

1102
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:17,399
Speaker 3: and a half. I think you might make a case

1103
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 3: for Boise and I would agree maybe North Texas is

1104
00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 3: overmatched year, but I'm actually gonna make a case for

1105
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 3: the over which I still like. It's I bet it

1106
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 3: today if you follow me on the action overcap. I

1107
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:32,839
Speaker 3: think it's taken some money since. But if you look

1108
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 3: at Boise State's overall defensive metrics, they I think they're

1109
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 3: they look a little better against the pass. That's all

1110
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:41,880
Speaker 3: North Texas wants to do than they actually are, because

1111
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 3: you know, they give up twenty seven to twenty eight,

1112
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 3: thirty one and thirty four and four losses to UTEP,

1113
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 3: Fresno State with j Kyner BYU and Oregon State and

1114
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 3: their nine wins. Here are the passing offenses. They faced

1115
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 3: Air Force ut martin New Mexico, San Diego State with

1116
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 3: Burmeister Fresno State with Fife, Colorado State, Nevada, Nevada, Nevada,

1117
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 3: Wyoming with a fourth string quarterback who went three of

1118
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 3: sixteen for thirty yards and three picks, and then Utah

1119
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 3: State and Cooper us through for three hundred yards. So

1120
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 3: I think that actually can be attacked. Their secondary is

1121
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:20,200
Speaker 3: not fully healthy. They're missing some of their edge pieces.

1122
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 3: I think North Texas will be able to put up

1123
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:25,319
Speaker 3: points here through the air. And you know this is

1124
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:28,279
Speaker 3: for what it's worth, this is Seth Chill's final game.

1125
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:29,719
Speaker 3: He was fired, but he's going to coach the team.

1126
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:32,759
Speaker 3: He's oh in seven in postseason games oh and five

1127
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 3: and Bowls one and four against the spread. And on

1128
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 3: the other side of the ball, you know, Boise State's

1129
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 3: gonna be able to run wild. This Dorthe Texas ruinby

1130
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:46,719
Speaker 3: is so bad. And since Boise State made the quarterback

1131
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:49,800
Speaker 3: change going with Taylor Green him, George Lane and company

1132
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:53,279
Speaker 3: in this offensive line have been awesome. Derk Cutter's final

1133
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:55,399
Speaker 3: game as well, I think both. You know, Sethachell's gonna

1134
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,000
Speaker 3: be like fuck it, go for fourth down. You're going

1135
00:55:57,080 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 3: to see all kinds of trick plays. Derk cutter. Before

1136
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 3: you hires, you're going to see all kinds of cool

1137
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 3: looking plays. This North Texas defense is bad. The only

1138
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:07,200
Speaker 3: thing that wires me. North Texas didn't really face any

1139
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,880
Speaker 3: defense with the Pulse this year. Look at their schedule

1140
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 3: in the entire year, even out of conference. But I

1141
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:15,280
Speaker 3: think that Nord Texas being able to hit enough explosives

1142
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:19,319
Speaker 3: get into the twenties here twenty four to twenty eight points,

1143
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 3: and I think Boise State can get into the forties.

1144
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:27,320
Speaker 3: You look at I think a good comparison here for

1145
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 3: what you can maybe expect from Boise State with Green

1146
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:35,920
Speaker 3: very mobile quarterback can fly and then George Lane at

1147
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 3: running back. Is North Texas are this year played? You know,

1148
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:42,839
Speaker 3: they're bottom five nationally both lineyards and opportunity rate, which

1149
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 3: that's bad. Boise State's top twenty five and both go

1150
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:49,280
Speaker 3: back to another Mountain West team they played earlier this year, UNLV,

1151
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 3: who beat North Texas fifty eight to twenty seven, ran

1152
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 3: for three hundred and sixty five yards. I just don't

1153
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:58,799
Speaker 3: see how North Texas is going to stop Boise What

1154
00:56:58,840 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 3: do you think here?

1155
00:57:00,000 --> 00:57:01,440
Speaker 4: I was betting the over as you were going through

1156
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 4: because I completely agree with you key number of fifty

1157
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 4: nine would try to get that or fifty eight, fifty

1158
00:57:05,600 --> 00:57:07,120
Speaker 4: eight and a half. It's out there on the board.

1159
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:10,239
Speaker 4: There's prime motivation here for Boise. Plenty of comments from

1160
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:13,120
Speaker 4: head coach Andy Avolos about getting the bad taste of

1161
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:15,759
Speaker 4: that Mountain West Conference championship out of their mouth after

1162
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 4: field goal after field goal after field goal, and just

1163
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 4: some miscues there. So this was a desirable bowl game.

1164
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:23,160
Speaker 4: Boise does recruit the state of Texas, so there's a

1165
00:57:23,160 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 4: big trip for them. And if you didn't know the

1166
00:57:26,640 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 4: Broncos players, a lot of these guys on this roster

1167
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 4: have not played in a bowl. Twenty twenty was a

1168
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 4: COVID non participant, twenty twenty one was the Arizona Bowl

1169
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:36,880
Speaker 4: getting canceled. So this is a really big deal for Boise.

1170
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:38,440
Speaker 4: And I agree with you. They are going to put

1171
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:42,520
Speaker 4: up a lion share of points here North Texas. You know,

1172
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 4: I'm reading, you know, Latrell, I'm reading interim coach defensive coordinator.

1173
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,400
Speaker 4: I think you're completely right. There's not going to be

1174
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:53,000
Speaker 4: any fourth down punning here. There's going to be you know,

1175
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:56,600
Speaker 4: empty out the playbook, everything turned upside down. So they

1176
00:57:56,600 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 4: are you know, they might be able to get some

1177
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 4: points up on the board. Boise did finish the season

1178
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:03,960
Speaker 4: eleventh in coverage, best in the nation, and defensive passing

1179
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 4: success rate, so that doesn't really bode well for Austin Anie.

1180
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:09,480
Speaker 4: But at the same time, they're gonna be able to run,

1181
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:11,680
Speaker 4: which North Texas has done in some games this year

1182
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 4: Taylor Green and the Boise offense struggled. I said in

1183
00:58:14,600 --> 00:58:18,680
Speaker 4: the Mountain West Conference championship game. But if you need

1184
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 4: a remedy to get better from having a stalled offense,

1185
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:24,720
Speaker 4: welcome to the North Texas defense. One hundred and twenty

1186
00:58:24,720 --> 00:58:27,880
Speaker 4: seventh in defensive havoc, one hundred and seventeenth in defensive

1187
00:58:27,880 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 4: finishing drives. You're not gonna get the ball taken away

1188
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 4: from you, and you're gonna score a lot of points

1189
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:34,920
Speaker 4: once you cross the forty. I bet the over with you.

1190
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:37,600
Speaker 4: I'm on Boise I, Bob Boise at five and a half,

1191
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:40,560
Speaker 4: we have rocket shipped up to ten and a half

1192
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:42,720
Speaker 4: is an exact number that I have on this game.

1193
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:45,240
Speaker 4: So I would play the side for light. I would

1194
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 4: take it every bowl confidence pool. But I like your

1195
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:48,280
Speaker 4: over more and more and more.

1196
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Boise I mean, their defensive pass metrics are great,

1197
00:58:51,680 --> 00:58:53,920
Speaker 3: but I do think to North Texas go will put

1198
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:57,360
Speaker 3: up points here because look, they're nine wins Boisse State's

1199
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:02,280
Speaker 3: nine wins an FCS team Martin and then seven passing

1200
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 3: offenses that rank outside the top one hundred and Fresno

1201
00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:09,440
Speaker 3: State when they had Fife, that's it. They did not

1202
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:12,120
Speaker 3: beat a competent passing offense. Yeah, that was nine to

1203
00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:15,080
Speaker 3: the thirteen games the four teams, and I'm talking about

1204
00:59:15,120 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 3: UTAP two pass defense metrics are inflated. They're missing there

1205
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:21,880
Speaker 3: a couple of their edge rushers as well. So yeah,

1206
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:23,840
Speaker 3: I think North Texas in a in an e FIC game,

1207
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:27,320
Speaker 3: they'll hit some really good receivers, they'll hit some explosives,

1208
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:30,640
Speaker 3: and I think this game could be like forty two

1209
00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 3: to twenty four ish forty two to twenty eight somewhere

1210
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 3: in that ballpark. All right, let's move on to.

1211
00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:40,680
Speaker 1: The weekday, The Myrtle Beach Bowl.

1212
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 3: Monday Bowl, Baby, the Myrtle Beach Bowl always fun. Monday afternoon,

1213
00:59:45,720 --> 00:59:49,600
Speaker 3: two point thirty Eastern Marshall taking on Yukon. Marshall's a

1214
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:55,160
Speaker 3: ten point favored here in Conway, South Carolina, home of

1215
00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 3: the fighting Chanta Clears of Coastal Carolina, Yukon six and

1216
00:59:59,800 --> 01:00:02,480
Speaker 3: six on the air, first time in a bowl in

1217
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 3: a while. They were one of my motivation monsters. I

1218
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:08,080
Speaker 3: was pretty much going to play them as long as

1219
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 3: the number wasn't wildly out of lack. No matter what.

1220
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:13,800
Speaker 3: I played Ukon plus ten and a half, would play

1221
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 3: them at ten. Don't even care that much about the

1222
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:17,960
Speaker 3: breakdown of the matchup. You can get into that if

1223
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 3: you want. I was playing Yukon no matter what, and

1224
01:00:21,240 --> 01:00:24,040
Speaker 3: I got I just want to double digits here. They

1225
01:00:24,040 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 3: should really care. And you know, maybe Marsh's a little

1226
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:30,800
Speaker 3: flat you're playing Yukon in a bowl. I know they

1227
01:00:30,800 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 3: were better down the stretch, but I think they had

1228
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:33,959
Speaker 3: bigger dreams. So this could be a game where Marshall

1229
01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:37,400
Speaker 3: because I completely flat, and I think Yukon obviously will

1230
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:40,640
Speaker 3: want to be here one of my motivational monsters. Got

1231
01:00:40,640 --> 01:00:44,560
Speaker 3: a couple more that I'll talk about in upcoming Bowl previews,

1232
01:00:44,600 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 3: but this was almost an auto play for me. Go Yukon.

1233
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:51,000
Speaker 4: I'm so sad. I don't know if Mitchell's got any

1234
01:00:51,000 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 4: emo music or my beloved Could.

1235
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:53,760
Speaker 3: You're getting Marshall?

1236
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:03,840
Speaker 4: Yeah? Oh my God, because listen, there's a lot of

1237
01:01:03,840 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 4: teams I wanted Yukon to play in the postseason, and

1238
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 4: Marshall just wasn't one of them. Because Yukon is such

1239
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 4: a heavy rush team, sixty six percent of their snaps

1240
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:14,959
Speaker 4: going to the ground. Victor Rosa quarterback Zion Turner, who's

1241
01:01:15,000 --> 01:01:17,160
Speaker 4: not a thrower. He can run though, but that plays

1242
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:20,480
Speaker 4: right into Marshall's hands. The herd is second, and defensive

1243
01:01:20,480 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 4: finishing drives third, against the rush twelfth and havoc. It's

1244
01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:27,280
Speaker 4: just a suffocating G five defense, you know. And they

1245
01:01:27,280 --> 01:01:28,640
Speaker 4: have a better strength of record, and they have a

1246
01:01:28,680 --> 01:01:31,480
Speaker 4: better strength of schedule, so I can't argue with what

1247
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 4: they're bringing to the table here. And Marshall doesn't have

1248
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 4: the flashiest offense in the world, but they also have

1249
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 4: a heavy dose of rush coming from Kayln Lebourne, who

1250
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 4: puts up one hundred yards almost every single game. The

1251
01:01:43,360 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 4: numbers are, you know, the numbers are really good for him.

1252
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 4: He's had fifty seven miss tackles, thirty seven runs of

1253
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:51,320
Speaker 4: ten plus that he's got almost three yards after contact.

1254
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:53,440
Speaker 4: That's going to be rough for this Yukon defense that

1255
01:01:54,000 --> 01:01:56,160
Speaker 4: has struggled against the run. One hundred and eighteenth in

1256
01:01:56,200 --> 01:02:00,400
Speaker 4: defensive success rate. It's just not good, like outside the

1257
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:03,280
Speaker 4: top one hundred and stuff rate. And you know, I

1258
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:05,280
Speaker 4: think the numbers should be more like thirteen. So I

1259
01:02:05,320 --> 01:02:07,120
Speaker 4: would buy the ten to and a half. I get it.

1260
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 4: I get the motivational angle. Maybe Marshall shows up and

1261
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:13,560
Speaker 4: they don't want to play. But you break it down

1262
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:16,960
Speaker 4: from everything offense defense. This was a bad defense for

1263
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:20,640
Speaker 4: Yukon to be going up against. And you know, good

1264
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:23,880
Speaker 4: luck to him, but you know, Marshall ended the season

1265
01:02:23,920 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 4: fifth and tackling. There's just not going to be a

1266
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 4: lot of big plays here for Yukon. I don't expect

1267
01:02:28,040 --> 01:02:30,160
Speaker 4: them to move the chains much, so I hate it,

1268
01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:33,720
Speaker 4: but we are you know that. Sorry, that's where the

1269
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:34,520
Speaker 4: money's gonna fall.

1270
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:35,800
Speaker 2: I know.

1271
01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 3: I said earlier in the podcast that I I don't

1272
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 3: like betting unders and low toe. I actually might bet

1273
01:02:40,560 --> 01:02:41,440
Speaker 3: this under for what do you want?

1274
01:02:41,520 --> 01:02:42,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I can do that.

1275
01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:45,640
Speaker 3: This one is going to be gross too. But you're right.

1276
01:02:45,680 --> 01:02:48,880
Speaker 3: I mean, you constincts to be honest, but I read

1277
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:53,439
Speaker 3: them too. Let's move on to Tuesday, December twentieth. Let's

1278
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 3: talk about the famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

1279
01:02:56,320 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 1: The famous Idaho Potato Bowl as.

1280
01:02:59,720 --> 01:03:02,560
Speaker 4: Well, face it your addictedness buzz.

1281
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:06,000
Speaker 3: San Jose States to three and a half point favored

1282
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:11,000
Speaker 3: here over Eastern Michigan total sitting at fifty four and

1283
01:03:11,080 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 3: a half. This game will be played in Boise, Idah,

1284
01:03:14,840 --> 01:03:20,280
Speaker 3: three point thirty eastern on Tuesday on ESPN. You know,

1285
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 3: San Jose State had a lot of promise earlier in

1286
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 3: the season. They looked great, especially that defense, and then

1287
01:03:26,000 --> 01:03:27,960
Speaker 3: they kind of just faded. They had a tragic death

1288
01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:29,440
Speaker 3: of one of their teammates. I don't know if that

1289
01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 3: was correlated. They did kind of clean it up with

1290
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 3: the Hawaii I mean, in their home season finale, but

1291
01:03:35,640 --> 01:03:39,560
Speaker 3: before then, you know, since that postponed game, they barely

1292
01:03:39,600 --> 01:03:42,680
Speaker 3: beat Nevada at home, barely beat Colorado State the game

1293
01:03:42,680 --> 01:03:45,479
Speaker 3: they were dominated statistically. They lost forty three to twenty

1294
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:47,960
Speaker 3: seven to San Diego State, they lost to Utah State,

1295
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,200
Speaker 3: and just things were not the same down the stretch.

1296
01:03:51,280 --> 01:03:52,880
Speaker 3: So I don't know what's going on with this team.

1297
01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:55,000
Speaker 3: Is this a chance to go in the reset or

1298
01:03:55,120 --> 01:03:57,720
Speaker 3: is it like now we're playing eastn Michigan. Who cares

1299
01:03:58,080 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 3: Chris Creighton a high respect? The Eastern Michigan head coach.

1300
01:04:03,080 --> 01:04:06,280
Speaker 3: I don't know, this one's tough, but probably decide with

1301
01:04:06,360 --> 01:04:09,440
Speaker 3: the dog on the surface. But in just how San

1302
01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:12,400
Speaker 3: Jose State end of the season. But I also in

1303
01:04:12,400 --> 01:04:14,960
Speaker 3: a way, I'm like I was trying to avoid mac

1304
01:04:15,000 --> 01:04:16,920
Speaker 3: teams and which means I'll end up playing a bunch.

1305
01:04:17,080 --> 01:04:17,800
Speaker 3: What do you see here?

1306
01:04:20,040 --> 01:04:22,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, the potato. We're gonna get a little sputty buddy

1307
01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:24,720
Speaker 4: going on here. It's just a tough handicap of San

1308
01:04:24,760 --> 01:04:27,840
Speaker 4: Jose State. They didn't cover any of their last five games.

1309
01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:29,480
Speaker 4: He mentioned the death of their teammate and a car

1310
01:04:29,520 --> 01:04:32,560
Speaker 4: accident at mid October. They do have quarterbacks schevon Cordero,

1311
01:04:32,600 --> 01:04:35,240
Speaker 4: who's actually been stable. Like when you go into the

1312
01:04:35,280 --> 01:04:37,080
Speaker 4: deep dive in the numbers, like what is the problem

1313
01:04:37,080 --> 01:04:41,000
Speaker 4: with San Jose State, It's not been chevon Cordero. You know,

1314
01:04:41,080 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 4: he has just four fumbles for him this season. That

1315
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:44,840
Speaker 4: is a huge upgrade from what he's done all the

1316
01:04:44,880 --> 01:04:48,200
Speaker 4: previous years at Hawaii. From a passing perspective, he maintained

1317
01:04:48,240 --> 01:04:50,600
Speaker 4: a great ratio from a big time throw to turnover

1318
01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:53,560
Speaker 4: worthy play rate. This is the best TDI int ratio

1319
01:04:53,600 --> 01:04:56,320
Speaker 4: of his career at twenty to four. And you know,

1320
01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:58,840
Speaker 4: Santasee State has just not been able to keep defenses

1321
01:04:58,880 --> 01:05:00,520
Speaker 4: out of their backfield. But they're going to get some

1322
01:05:00,520 --> 01:05:03,680
Speaker 4: relief with Eastern Michigan here. Eastern Michigan does not generate

1323
01:05:03,720 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 4: a pass rush. There're one hundred well, just one guy.

1324
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:08,440
Speaker 3: Their defense is one guy those Ramirez who's going to

1325
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 3: play in the NFL. That's it. Their defense is literally

1326
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:11,840
Speaker 3: one guy.

1327
01:05:13,080 --> 01:05:15,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're one hundred and six in coverage, they're terrible

1328
01:05:15,880 --> 01:05:19,320
Speaker 4: in finishing drives, one hundred and twenty ninth. So the

1329
01:05:19,360 --> 01:05:21,840
Speaker 4: path is there for San Jose State to get off

1330
01:05:21,840 --> 01:05:23,880
Speaker 4: the schneid here and try to get a win. But

1331
01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:26,200
Speaker 4: you know he's going to try to counter with Samson

1332
01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:28,640
Speaker 4: Evans carrying the ball twenty two TVs this season, but

1333
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:32,080
Speaker 4: he also had eleven fumbles. It's been a consistent problem

1334
01:05:32,080 --> 01:05:36,480
Speaker 4: for Eastern Michigan. Spartan's defense pretty lackluster and defending the pass,

1335
01:05:37,280 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 4: but they've been really good in standard downs, particularly against

1336
01:05:40,360 --> 01:05:43,360
Speaker 4: the runs. So, uh, if they can get Eastern Michigan

1337
01:05:43,480 --> 01:05:46,919
Speaker 4: into long downs and distances, they should have some success here.

1338
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:49,920
Speaker 4: And Taylor Powell quarterback, he was he's on fire end

1339
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:51,200
Speaker 4: of the season. He had six t d's in the

1340
01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:54,000
Speaker 4: final two games against Kent State and Central Michigan. Say

1341
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:55,960
Speaker 4: what you will about their defenses.

1342
01:05:55,720 --> 01:05:57,919
Speaker 3: But san Jose and he's the best, better, better option.

1343
01:05:58,000 --> 01:06:00,600
Speaker 3: Like he was hurt but then they like benched him.

1344
01:06:00,880 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 3: Just yeah, but I'm I think he is the much

1345
01:06:03,720 --> 01:06:04,720
Speaker 3: better option in quarterback.

1346
01:06:05,440 --> 01:06:08,760
Speaker 4: I believe you're Santjose is gonna win this game. I

1347
01:06:08,800 --> 01:06:11,560
Speaker 4: know I took them in my pools. I do make

1348
01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:14,520
Speaker 4: the game three and a half. At four, I know

1349
01:06:14,600 --> 01:06:17,720
Speaker 4: it's tight. At four is when I start buying Eastern Michigan.

1350
01:06:18,120 --> 01:06:20,040
Speaker 4: And the reason is because first I can't handicap if

1351
01:06:20,080 --> 01:06:22,480
Speaker 4: Santose it's gonna come out there, and I can't handicap

1352
01:06:22,560 --> 01:06:25,360
Speaker 4: that offensive line is just gonna olay and let Eastern

1353
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:28,520
Speaker 4: Michigan just run through the backfield. But at the same time,

1354
01:06:29,080 --> 01:06:31,479
Speaker 4: there's two things that bother me about taking San Jose

1355
01:06:31,600 --> 01:06:35,320
Speaker 4: State more things that bothered me. One, Chris Creighton Reeister

1356
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:38,360
Speaker 4: Michigan is always in a one possession game. It seems

1357
01:06:38,360 --> 01:06:42,640
Speaker 4: like he's always covering, and two twenty three degrees and

1358
01:06:42,720 --> 01:06:45,880
Speaker 4: twenty mile an hour wins for these California kids. That

1359
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:48,440
Speaker 4: makes me nervous. That makes me very nervous.

1360
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:49,680
Speaker 3: That's regular Macweather.

1361
01:06:49,880 --> 01:06:52,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's regular Macweather. That's that's Samson Evans Weather carrying

1362
01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:57,520
Speaker 4: the ball. So I am buying EMU at four and above.

1363
01:06:57,640 --> 01:06:59,360
Speaker 4: I would like points. If this thing seems great, I

1364
01:06:59,400 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 4: would like Michigan above that. Below that, I think three

1365
01:07:02,440 --> 01:07:04,080
Speaker 4: and below. I'm on San Jose State.

1366
01:07:04,760 --> 01:07:07,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, tough, Hanne. I might EMU might be one of

1367
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:09,360
Speaker 3: my teams that throw my round robin, just because if

1368
01:07:09,400 --> 01:07:11,480
Speaker 3: there is ever a candidate that might just not show

1369
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:14,479
Speaker 3: up based on the end of their season, it would

1370
01:07:14,480 --> 01:07:17,160
Speaker 3: be San Jose State. All right, let's finish things up

1371
01:07:17,200 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 3: here on Tuesday with the roofclaim dot Com book a

1372
01:07:24,120 --> 01:07:26,000
Speaker 3: return Bowl roofclaim dot Com.

1373
01:07:26,040 --> 01:07:28,880
Speaker 1: Okay, the Boca Raton Bowl.

1374
01:07:29,160 --> 01:07:32,960
Speaker 4: Every year Boca Raton Bowl stops this podcast so that

1375
01:07:33,080 --> 01:07:35,240
Speaker 4: we can find out what the hell the sponsor is.

1376
01:07:35,400 --> 01:07:37,680
Speaker 3: I always am like, is it Boca Raton or Boca Raton.

1377
01:07:37,760 --> 01:07:40,840
Speaker 3: I think it's Raton, but my delco accent that everyone

1378
01:07:40,840 --> 01:07:42,280
Speaker 3: makes fun. I think I say Ratone.

1379
01:07:43,040 --> 01:07:45,880
Speaker 4: Obviously you're down in Florida on vacation all the time.

1380
01:07:45,960 --> 01:07:47,680
Speaker 4: Just drive over that part of the state and figure

1381
01:07:47,720 --> 01:07:48,480
Speaker 4: it out now.

1382
01:07:48,560 --> 01:07:51,200
Speaker 3: But then I forget because my Delta roots are just

1383
01:07:51,920 --> 01:07:55,040
Speaker 3: the way I pronounce certain valves. This game actually, to

1384
01:07:55,160 --> 01:07:58,520
Speaker 3: me is very similar to the one we just talked

1385
01:07:58,520 --> 01:08:00,880
Speaker 3: about Eastern Michigan. San Jose State. We have a mac

1386
01:08:00,960 --> 01:08:03,360
Speaker 3: team and look, I was looking to fade the mac

1387
01:08:03,360 --> 01:08:05,400
Speaker 3: Alito is a four and a half point favorite here

1388
01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:10,360
Speaker 3: over Liberty. But then there's a team in Liberty that

1389
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:13,360
Speaker 3: from a numbers perspective, I want to play Liberty yep.

1390
01:08:13,520 --> 01:08:18,360
Speaker 3: But just like San Jase State, what happened to Liberty now?

1391
01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 3: And Hugh Freeze has gone as well. He's been really

1392
01:08:20,200 --> 01:08:23,599
Speaker 3: successful in bowls against the spread, a really good game planner.

1393
01:08:23,600 --> 01:08:28,320
Speaker 3: He's not there. But Liberty they beat Arkansas and then

1394
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:33,639
Speaker 3: they lose to Yukon, then they lose to Vatech at home,

1395
01:08:34,160 --> 01:08:37,920
Speaker 3: and then they get drilled at home by New Mexico

1396
01:08:38,040 --> 01:08:41,280
Speaker 3: State forty nine to fourteen. How did you go forty

1397
01:08:41,360 --> 01:08:46,320
Speaker 3: nine points to New Mexico State? And now Freeze has gone?

1398
01:08:46,840 --> 01:08:48,960
Speaker 3: This team isn't really covered well in the market. It's

1399
01:08:48,960 --> 01:08:50,640
Speaker 3: hard to get really good info on what's going on

1400
01:08:50,680 --> 01:08:52,880
Speaker 3: with Liberty. So like my number says, I should play

1401
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 3: Liberty here, assuming like they cared, But then there's a

1402
01:08:56,000 --> 01:09:00,880
Speaker 3: Hugh Freeze angle and maybe a candidate for round. But

1403
01:09:01,640 --> 01:09:03,439
Speaker 3: what happened with Liberty and what is going on there?

1404
01:09:03,439 --> 01:09:04,080
Speaker 3: What do you see here?

1405
01:09:04,400 --> 01:09:08,000
Speaker 4: I'm taking Liberty. I'm betting on Liberty here. I think

1406
01:09:08,040 --> 01:09:09,760
Speaker 4: the hate on Liberty has gone way too far. And

1407
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:11,960
Speaker 4: I get it. With that loss to New Mexico State

1408
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:15,280
Speaker 4: and Hugh Freeze getting booed off the field, you know them,

1409
01:09:15,320 --> 01:09:19,080
Speaker 4: tell take the job, take the job. You know, this

1410
01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:21,280
Speaker 4: is the same team that just beat Arkansas a couple

1411
01:09:21,240 --> 01:09:23,600
Speaker 4: of weeks before. I mean, they're not completely horrible, and

1412
01:09:23,640 --> 01:09:25,439
Speaker 4: they are one of the best HAVOC teams in the nation.

1413
01:09:25,960 --> 01:09:28,120
Speaker 4: Defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge is going to take over his

1414
01:09:28,280 --> 01:09:32,280
Speaker 4: endrom here. You can expect a better performance from the

1415
01:09:32,360 --> 01:09:35,439
Speaker 4: d with their defensive coordinator calling the place, at least

1416
01:09:35,439 --> 01:09:38,200
Speaker 4: a return to normalcy a fourth and havoc top fifteen

1417
01:09:38,200 --> 01:09:41,160
Speaker 4: and success rate specifically, Liberty was sixth and standard down

1418
01:09:41,160 --> 01:09:44,000
Speaker 4: success rate on defense. That means the Flames sent a

1419
01:09:44,160 --> 01:09:47,000
Speaker 4: lot of teams to second and third down real quick.

1420
01:09:47,400 --> 01:09:50,040
Speaker 4: And this is the better third down team in this game.

1421
01:09:50,080 --> 01:09:52,120
Speaker 4: The Flames finished top twenty here and.

1422
01:09:52,600 --> 01:09:54,559
Speaker 3: Is everyone playing for them? I can't get really good.

1423
01:09:54,600 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 4: In fact, I haven't had Yeah, yeah. I mean I

1424
01:09:57,360 --> 01:09:59,120
Speaker 4: haven't been able to find anything. And I even dug

1425
01:09:59,160 --> 01:10:01,000
Speaker 4: on these guys before I decided that this is who

1426
01:10:01,000 --> 01:10:02,800
Speaker 4: I wanted to take in a bowl confidence pool and

1427
01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:04,599
Speaker 4: take everywhere I think.

1428
01:10:05,200 --> 01:10:07,360
Speaker 3: So I've been looking for MAC teams the fake Listen,

1429
01:10:07,479 --> 01:10:09,599
Speaker 3: it's a one game. I mean, this is kind numbers.

1430
01:10:09,680 --> 01:10:10,479
Speaker 3: I have to do it too.

1431
01:10:11,000 --> 01:10:13,240
Speaker 4: This is college football. We've seen teams get blown out

1432
01:10:13,240 --> 01:10:14,720
Speaker 4: by forty and then show up the next week and

1433
01:10:14,760 --> 01:10:17,200
Speaker 4: blow other teams out by forty. I mean they had

1434
01:10:17,240 --> 01:10:19,040
Speaker 4: a bad game and Hugh Freeze gave up on the

1435
01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:21,160
Speaker 4: team and the players didn't show up. It's a it's

1436
01:10:21,200 --> 01:10:21,519
Speaker 4: a story.

1437
01:10:21,880 --> 01:10:23,559
Speaker 3: I don't you think they would now that he's gone.

1438
01:10:23,600 --> 01:10:26,000
Speaker 3: It's like more of like, hey, we will rally now, and.

1439
01:10:25,960 --> 01:10:28,840
Speaker 4: They love their defensive coordinator. They are going to play

1440
01:10:28,840 --> 01:10:30,880
Speaker 4: for him. So when you go to the other side

1441
01:10:30,920 --> 01:10:33,200
Speaker 4: with Toledo, like Dakwan Finn return in the MAC Title

1442
01:10:33,280 --> 01:10:36,599
Speaker 4: Championship game, full health, full mobility, sixteen to twenty five,

1443
01:10:36,640 --> 01:10:39,479
Speaker 4: passing a fumble ninety one yards on the ground. The

1444
01:10:39,520 --> 01:10:41,519
Speaker 4: offensive line is just terrible and blocking. It's good that

1445
01:10:41,560 --> 01:10:43,920
Speaker 4: he can move around. The offensive line is terrible blocking

1446
01:10:44,120 --> 01:10:46,519
Speaker 4: one hundred and sixteenth and pass blocking not much better

1447
01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:49,360
Speaker 4: than run blocking eighty eight and Liberty led the Nation.

1448
01:10:49,439 --> 01:10:51,639
Speaker 4: Like I said this before, with some other handicaps, Liberty

1449
01:10:51,720 --> 01:10:54,439
Speaker 4: led the Nation and tackles for loss. They will be

1450
01:10:54,479 --> 01:10:57,680
Speaker 4: in the backfield on top of Da Kwan Finn the

1451
01:10:57,720 --> 01:11:00,519
Speaker 4: second week kick off in this game. So past that,

1452
01:11:01,040 --> 01:11:02,799
Speaker 4: let's go to the other side of the ball. Liberty

1453
01:11:02,840 --> 01:11:06,679
Speaker 4: has been struggling with health in their quarterbacks. There's three quarterbacks, Brewer.

1454
01:11:07,439 --> 01:11:10,200
Speaker 4: The one you gotta watch is Caiden Salter. Caiden Salter

1455
01:11:10,360 --> 01:11:13,479
Speaker 4: is the one that's the dual threat quarterback. Toledo really

1456
01:11:13,520 --> 01:11:16,640
Speaker 4: struggles with rush explosiveness. Now Data Hunter isn't there, but

1457
01:11:16,760 --> 01:11:19,680
Speaker 4: Caden Salter at quarterback is enough. Like that's enough for

1458
01:11:19,720 --> 01:11:22,280
Speaker 4: Toledo to have to handle on the ground, and I

1459
01:11:22,280 --> 01:11:24,280
Speaker 4: think he's going to do all the damage here. I'm

1460
01:11:24,280 --> 01:11:27,160
Speaker 4: betting Liberty. If I can find some Caden Salter props,

1461
01:11:27,200 --> 01:11:30,320
Speaker 4: I would hit those two. But this is an upset

1462
01:11:30,320 --> 01:11:30,760
Speaker 4: that I love.

1463
01:11:31,640 --> 01:11:33,360
Speaker 3: All Right, there you have it. We do have one

1464
01:11:33,400 --> 01:11:35,080
Speaker 3: final order of business to get to. But that was

1465
01:11:35,240 --> 01:11:40,519
Speaker 3: eleven balls broken down. First eleven balls in a little

1466
01:11:40,520 --> 01:11:45,200
Speaker 3: over an hour. That's the first of four Bowl betting previous.

1467
01:11:45,200 --> 01:11:49,479
Speaker 3: We'll also have some big bets on campus live shows

1468
01:11:49,479 --> 01:11:53,400
Speaker 3: on Twitter. Make sure you stay tuned to our Twitter

1469
01:11:53,400 --> 01:11:57,040
Speaker 3: feeds for those, we'll have one. I believe this upcoming

1470
01:11:57,200 --> 01:12:00,800
Speaker 3: Saturday or not this upcoming Friday morning talk bowls that

1471
01:12:00,840 --> 01:12:04,880
Speaker 3: are on Friday, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday. I believe. All right,

1472
01:12:05,000 --> 01:12:06,560
Speaker 3: before we get out of here, let's go three and

1473
01:12:06,560 --> 01:12:06,800
Speaker 3: a half.

1474
01:12:09,080 --> 01:12:11,680
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1475
01:12:12,280 --> 01:12:14,800
Speaker 3: Let's just get first, get our favorite bet of this

1476
01:12:15,160 --> 01:12:17,679
Speaker 3: slate from these eleven out of the way. I'm gonna

1477
01:12:17,680 --> 01:12:22,559
Speaker 3: go with the Boise North Texas over. I think North Texas. Look,

1478
01:12:22,560 --> 01:12:24,320
Speaker 3: I think both teams are just gonna play really loose

1479
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:27,120
Speaker 3: here from Derek Hutter's last game before retirement, the off

1480
01:12:27,080 --> 01:12:30,000
Speaker 3: the cordator for Boise State except Latrell's last game. Figure

1481
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,600
Speaker 3: to see both teams play really loose. I think Boise's

1482
01:12:33,120 --> 01:12:36,800
Speaker 3: secondary is more vulnerable than the number suggests because they

1483
01:12:36,840 --> 01:12:39,880
Speaker 3: basically played nine teams in capable throwing the ball. So

1484
01:12:39,960 --> 01:12:43,360
Speaker 3: give me the over there, Coln, what's your favorite bet

1485
01:12:43,560 --> 01:12:44,799
Speaker 3: of this slate.

1486
01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:47,040
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go to the Jimmy Kimmel La Bowl and

1487
01:12:47,120 --> 01:12:50,439
Speaker 4: Sofi and Sofi is a big destination for Fresno State,

1488
01:12:50,479 --> 01:12:54,000
Speaker 4: who should be Washington State here. There's a lot of

1489
01:12:54,040 --> 01:12:56,320
Speaker 4: advantages on both sides of the ball. But you know,

1490
01:12:56,479 --> 01:12:59,320
Speaker 4: Washington State is, you know, losing to their two top

1491
01:12:59,360 --> 01:13:02,320
Speaker 4: targets on offense from a wide receiver perspective, two key

1492
01:13:02,360 --> 01:13:05,759
Speaker 4: linebackers here, lost their defensive coordinator, a lot of missing

1493
01:13:05,760 --> 01:13:08,639
Speaker 4: pieces coming into this bowl game, and you know, that's

1494
01:13:08,680 --> 01:13:10,160
Speaker 4: a lot of ketchup that they're gonna have to play.

1495
01:13:10,160 --> 01:13:13,200
Speaker 4: But cam Ward, their quarterback, does not take care of

1496
01:13:13,240 --> 01:13:15,639
Speaker 4: the ball whatsoever, and that's going to be trouble against

1497
01:13:15,640 --> 01:13:18,040
Speaker 4: a Fresno State team that has been excellent havoc in

1498
01:13:18,080 --> 01:13:21,160
Speaker 4: taking the ball away from opponents. As for the offense,

1499
01:13:21,479 --> 01:13:23,599
Speaker 4: Jordan Mims has been tough to stop on the ground,

1500
01:13:23,920 --> 01:13:26,040
Speaker 4: Jake Hayner is playing at another level from a G

1501
01:13:26,200 --> 01:13:28,519
Speaker 4: five perspective, and that's just going to be too much

1502
01:13:28,560 --> 01:13:31,040
Speaker 4: for this Washington State defense that, like I said, is

1503
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:35,080
Speaker 4: already missing two key contributors a linebacker. Fresno State all

1504
01:13:35,120 --> 01:13:37,880
Speaker 4: the way, get those Southern California kids on that roster

1505
01:13:38,080 --> 01:13:41,400
Speaker 4: back home and supported by their fans and the family.

1506
01:13:41,479 --> 01:13:43,400
Speaker 4: So look for the Bulldogs to pull it off here

1507
01:13:43,400 --> 01:13:44,599
Speaker 4: in Sofi Stadium.

1508
01:13:44,880 --> 01:13:47,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love that one. Air raids. Historically the struggling

1509
01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:49,000
Speaker 3: Bulls too. With the break, they kind of lose the

1510
01:13:49,040 --> 01:13:51,720
Speaker 3: rhythm and Fresno State's run defense is much worse than

1511
01:13:51,760 --> 01:13:54,280
Speaker 3: the past day. It doesn't really matter you're Washington State

1512
01:13:54,320 --> 01:13:55,960
Speaker 3: doesn't run the ball. So I think it's a really

1513
01:13:56,000 --> 01:13:59,240
Speaker 3: good matchup for Fresno State, haying their Cropper and company

1514
01:13:59,280 --> 01:14:02,040
Speaker 3: in that offense with a Friends of State team that

1515
01:14:02,080 --> 01:14:04,360
Speaker 3: I think defense really came on the end of the year,

1516
01:14:04,600 --> 01:14:07,360
Speaker 3: and their offensive metrics didn't have Jay Can or they'd

1517
01:14:07,360 --> 01:14:09,759
Speaker 3: have a two star kid starting for half the season.

1518
01:14:09,840 --> 01:14:12,000
Speaker 3: So I think if they're undervalue in the market, I

1519
01:14:12,040 --> 01:14:14,760
Speaker 3: agree on Fresno. Allright, let's move on to second down.

1520
01:14:15,200 --> 01:14:18,240
Speaker 3: Let's talk favorite. Let's do our money line underdog as

1521
01:14:18,240 --> 01:14:19,880
Speaker 3: we crushed it this year on these.

1522
01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:26,360
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay for.

1523
01:14:26,320 --> 01:14:28,599
Speaker 3: The entire Bowl season. I'm going to go with Liberty.

1524
01:14:28,640 --> 01:14:30,360
Speaker 3: You just talked about it. You kind of pushed me

1525
01:14:30,400 --> 01:14:32,720
Speaker 3: over the edge. I don't think you know. I think

1526
01:14:32,720 --> 01:14:34,720
Speaker 3: they made what will rally for Freezer. I mean they've

1527
01:14:34,720 --> 01:14:37,920
Speaker 3: lost to Tech Tech by one, they beat Arkansas. I

1528
01:14:38,040 --> 01:14:40,400
Speaker 3: think the market is overreacting to that one game. I

1529
01:14:40,520 --> 01:14:43,120
Speaker 3: was starting to as well, but I think they'll be finer.

1530
01:14:43,160 --> 01:14:45,599
Speaker 3: I don't see anybody out and I'm looking to fade

1531
01:14:45,600 --> 01:14:49,439
Speaker 3: the Mac. And no one has disappointed outright more than

1532
01:14:49,479 --> 01:14:53,240
Speaker 3: Toledo as a favorite over the past two years. Give

1533
01:14:53,240 --> 01:14:55,840
Speaker 3: me the flames where you go, Dire Bowl season.

1534
01:14:56,000 --> 01:14:58,000
Speaker 4: My favorite underdog better this boll season is going to

1535
01:14:58,040 --> 01:15:00,960
Speaker 4: be Texas Tech in the Texas Bold. Joey maguire coming

1536
01:15:00,960 --> 01:15:03,200
Speaker 4: full circle, recruiting the state, coming down to take on

1537
01:15:03,240 --> 01:15:05,680
Speaker 4: this Rebels team. It is not the image of what

1538
01:15:05,760 --> 01:15:08,320
Speaker 4: Lane Kiffen wanted in this season, being a heavy rush

1539
01:15:08,400 --> 01:15:11,240
Speaker 4: offense with Kinshawn Judkins. That plays right in at Texas

1540
01:15:11,240 --> 01:15:13,760
Speaker 4: Tech's hands. What they do well on defense and from

1541
01:15:13,760 --> 01:15:17,280
Speaker 4: a quarterback position for the Red Raiders, They're fine with

1542
01:15:17,400 --> 01:15:20,200
Speaker 4: Tyler Shuck with Baron Morton if he's healthy. They have

1543
01:15:20,280 --> 01:15:22,360
Speaker 4: the better quarterbacks in this game. They have the better

1544
01:15:22,400 --> 01:15:24,519
Speaker 4: defense in this game. You know, the one area that

1545
01:15:24,560 --> 01:15:27,240
Speaker 4: Texas Tech struggles is coverage, and that's something that Old

1546
01:15:27,280 --> 01:15:30,120
Speaker 4: Miss just cannot exploit here. Look for Texas Tech to

1547
01:15:30,120 --> 01:15:31,759
Speaker 4: get it done in the Texas Bowl as an underdog.

1548
01:15:32,160 --> 01:15:35,639
Speaker 3: All right, good stuff there, let's go third down. Let's

1549
01:15:35,640 --> 01:15:39,160
Speaker 3: switch it up here, let's talk college will playoff. Not look,

1550
01:15:39,200 --> 01:15:41,719
Speaker 3: we'll argue. I'm going to be argued for TCU against

1551
01:15:41,760 --> 01:15:44,080
Speaker 3: your Michigan, which will be interesting, but we have a

1552
01:15:44,120 --> 01:15:45,600
Speaker 3: lot of time to go until that happens in a

1553
01:15:45,600 --> 01:15:50,040
Speaker 3: whole episode where we'll break down that game. But let's

1554
01:15:50,040 --> 01:15:52,560
Speaker 3: just talk from a market perspective. Michigan is sitting in

1555
01:15:52,640 --> 01:15:55,280
Speaker 3: what seven and a half point favorite? George is sitting

1556
01:15:55,280 --> 01:15:57,439
Speaker 3: at a six and a half point favorite, So obviously

1557
01:15:57,520 --> 01:16:01,200
Speaker 3: right around the key number of seven in your honest

1558
01:16:01,240 --> 01:16:04,240
Speaker 3: opinion and what you know of the market, Say someone

1559
01:16:04,360 --> 01:16:06,400
Speaker 3: likes TCU, should they hit that now? Should they wait?

1560
01:16:06,520 --> 01:16:10,080
Speaker 3: Say someone likes Georgia, I would think you obviously hit

1561
01:16:10,160 --> 01:16:12,479
Speaker 3: that now because I mean, I don't think it's going

1562
01:16:12,560 --> 01:16:13,760
Speaker 3: to come down a ton. You don't want it to

1563
01:16:13,800 --> 01:16:16,720
Speaker 3: go to seven. If you like Ohio State, do you

1564
01:16:16,760 --> 01:16:20,040
Speaker 3: think that breaks through seven? So just to two Cautoa

1565
01:16:20,080 --> 01:16:22,599
Speaker 3: playoff games, we are a couple weeks away, but they're

1566
01:16:22,600 --> 01:16:24,240
Speaker 3: both sitting around seven. So I want to get your

1567
01:16:24,240 --> 01:16:26,640
Speaker 3: thoughts on just from a pure market perspective where you

1568
01:16:26,680 --> 01:16:29,840
Speaker 3: see both numbers going, well, the number.

1569
01:16:29,680 --> 01:16:32,120
Speaker 4: Is too high in the Peach Bowl for Ohio State

1570
01:16:32,160 --> 01:16:34,479
Speaker 4: and Georgia. This number should be more around five for

1571
01:16:34,560 --> 01:16:38,240
Speaker 4: Ohio State. But the public perception is Ohio State is

1572
01:16:38,360 --> 01:16:41,040
Speaker 4: trash because of what happened in the second half against Michigan.

1573
01:16:41,720 --> 01:16:44,839
Speaker 4: And you know, granted you can pass against that defense

1574
01:16:44,880 --> 01:16:46,800
Speaker 4: and get into the secondary. We saw that. We'll do

1575
01:16:46,800 --> 01:16:49,080
Speaker 4: a full game breakdown later and Georgia's going to be

1576
01:16:49,080 --> 01:16:51,439
Speaker 4: able to do that. But Ohio State's going to be

1577
01:16:51,439 --> 01:16:55,200
Speaker 4: able to get into the secondary of Georgia too. And

1578
01:16:55,280 --> 01:16:57,120
Speaker 4: this is a game. But I can see back and forth,

1579
01:16:57,160 --> 01:16:59,040
Speaker 4: back and forth. I would not be surprised at all

1580
01:16:59,080 --> 01:17:01,479
Speaker 4: if Ohio State covers this game. I think six and

1581
01:17:01,520 --> 01:17:02,840
Speaker 4: a half is a little bit too high. If you

1582
01:17:02,840 --> 01:17:04,599
Speaker 4: want to buy it to seven, that's fine, get while

1583
01:17:04,640 --> 01:17:07,040
Speaker 4: it's cheap. I don't think this will close at seven.

1584
01:17:07,320 --> 01:17:09,719
Speaker 4: Any books that flash of seven, it'll be gone right away.

1585
01:17:09,920 --> 01:17:12,160
Speaker 4: It probably closes at six or five and a half.

1586
01:17:12,360 --> 01:17:14,240
Speaker 4: So if you do like Ohio State, maybe buy that

1587
01:17:14,320 --> 01:17:16,080
Speaker 4: up at seven or take the six and a half now,

1588
01:17:16,360 --> 01:17:17,920
Speaker 4: but this thing should sett a little about five and

1589
01:17:17,960 --> 01:17:18,320
Speaker 4: a half.

1590
01:17:18,560 --> 01:17:20,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm waiting. If I get seven with Ohio State,

1591
01:17:20,800 --> 01:17:25,720
Speaker 3: I'll probably I'll take that, and my first inclination is

1592
01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:26,160
Speaker 3: over there.

1593
01:17:26,200 --> 01:17:27,599
Speaker 6: I mean, I think this is going to turn into

1594
01:17:27,600 --> 01:17:31,880
Speaker 6: a shooting absolutely, I'm with you. And then Michigan TCU.

1595
01:17:32,040 --> 01:17:33,639
Speaker 6: I mean, it's hard to see this get into ten,

1596
01:17:33,720 --> 01:17:35,719
Speaker 6: and it's hard to see it coming down to seven.

1597
01:17:36,680 --> 01:17:40,320
Speaker 6: So like it probably just chills in there in that range.

1598
01:17:40,520 --> 01:17:41,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're going to.

1599
01:17:41,200 --> 01:17:42,600
Speaker 4: Be in the dead zone. It seems like we have

1600
01:17:42,680 --> 01:17:45,000
Speaker 4: a semi final game that's always in the dead zone.

1601
01:17:45,000 --> 01:17:47,840
Speaker 4: The seven and a half to nins. If you are

1602
01:17:47,880 --> 01:17:50,720
Speaker 4: a buyer of TCU, you probably will get a nine

1603
01:17:50,760 --> 01:17:53,280
Speaker 4: at some point at some shop. Seven and a half

1604
01:17:53,320 --> 01:17:56,000
Speaker 4: is maybe where it closes. You might have to do

1605
01:17:56,000 --> 01:17:59,000
Speaker 4: what I did, which was you know, pony over minus

1606
01:17:59,000 --> 01:18:01,200
Speaker 4: one twenty and juice to get seven on the Wolverines.

1607
01:18:01,560 --> 01:18:03,720
Speaker 4: You know, from a market perspective, I understand that this

1608
01:18:03,720 --> 01:18:05,040
Speaker 4: thing is going to float in the dead zone and

1609
01:18:05,040 --> 01:18:08,040
Speaker 4: that's where it should be. But I am having a

1610
01:18:08,200 --> 01:18:11,519
Speaker 4: severe issue making a case that TCU is going to

1611
01:18:11,560 --> 01:18:13,679
Speaker 4: be able to keep up in this game. We'll save

1612
01:18:13,720 --> 01:18:16,240
Speaker 4: it for our podcast later on. I suck. I know

1613
01:18:16,360 --> 01:18:18,880
Speaker 4: that I know you like TCU, and for some reason,

1614
01:18:18,960 --> 01:18:21,800
Speaker 4: I've been on this TCU train against all odds the

1615
01:18:21,920 --> 01:18:24,280
Speaker 4: entire season, and now I'm hopping off and I'm just

1616
01:18:24,320 --> 01:18:27,799
Speaker 4: finding too many inconsistencies in that offense against this defense.

1617
01:18:28,120 --> 01:18:30,439
Speaker 4: It's one of my highest bulk point totals in a Bowl.

1618
01:18:30,479 --> 01:18:32,280
Speaker 4: Confidence pool is on Michigan.

1619
01:18:32,640 --> 01:18:34,400
Speaker 3: Well, we will argue aout that later. I will make

1620
01:18:34,400 --> 01:18:37,439
Speaker 3: my case for TCU. But actually, if you like TCU

1621
01:18:37,479 --> 01:18:39,280
Speaker 3: like me, I actually took eight, you can find an

1622
01:18:39,280 --> 01:18:42,240
Speaker 3: eight out there. Maybe some it comes in and goes

1623
01:18:42,240 --> 01:18:43,880
Speaker 3: to ten. I don't know, but I think that there's

1624
01:18:44,280 --> 01:18:47,559
Speaker 3: less of a chance than that. Then maybe some huge

1625
01:18:47,600 --> 01:18:49,640
Speaker 3: group loves TCU and then it goes to seven. So

1626
01:18:49,840 --> 01:18:52,000
Speaker 3: I just don't think there's that much risk, Like you

1627
01:18:52,040 --> 01:18:53,400
Speaker 3: would never want it to go to seven and then

1628
01:18:53,400 --> 01:18:55,960
Speaker 3: you're like, damn, I missed over seven, right, Like they'd

1629
01:18:56,000 --> 01:18:59,320
Speaker 3: be huge. So in my opinion, if you like TCU

1630
01:18:59,600 --> 01:19:02,040
Speaker 3: and there's eight out there, I would take it.

1631
01:19:02,320 --> 01:19:03,679
Speaker 4: You do want that overtime eight?

1632
01:19:04,240 --> 01:19:08,280
Speaker 3: Yeah? True? All right? That will do it for us.

1633
01:19:08,960 --> 01:19:11,360
Speaker 3: Bowl Betting Preview Part one of the books, and we

1634
01:19:11,360 --> 01:19:13,960
Speaker 3: will be back on Monday morning. By the time you

1635
01:19:14,000 --> 01:19:17,120
Speaker 3: wake up, you will have the Bowl Betting Preview Part

1636
01:19:17,200 --> 01:19:20,680
Speaker 3: two for the next slate of Bowl games. Thank you

1637
01:19:20,720 --> 01:19:22,640
Speaker 3: for tuning in as always, make sure you subscribe on

1638
01:19:22,680 --> 01:19:25,599
Speaker 3: subscribe subscribe, leave review. Really help us out five star review.

1639
01:19:25,640 --> 01:19:27,559
Speaker 3: I don't care what you say. They just really help

1640
01:19:27,640 --> 01:19:29,400
Speaker 3: us out. Tell a friend, tell enemy. By the way,

1641
01:19:29,400 --> 01:19:33,240
Speaker 3: we'll do giveaways next bowld podcast and leave that review

1642
01:19:33,280 --> 01:19:35,040
Speaker 3: and if you're in there, you'll get some free stuff.

1643
01:19:35,479 --> 01:19:38,040
Speaker 3: But it's time for us to get back to work

1644
01:19:38,080 --> 01:19:41,360
Speaker 3: and monitor all this bowl craziness. Thanks for tuning in

1645
01:19:41,360 --> 01:19:44,160
Speaker 3: as always, Thanks Colin for joining me, thanks to our

1646
01:19:44,200 --> 01:19:46,639
Speaker 3: audio and video teams on the back end, and most importantly,

1647
01:19:46,680 --> 01:19:50,200
Speaker 3: thanks to all of you for tuning in. It's been

1648
01:19:50,200 --> 01:19:54,000
Speaker 3: a great season, but let's finish up strong. Enjoy the bowls,

1649
01:19:54,400 --> 01:19:55,000
Speaker 3: catch you all later.

1650
01:19:55,080 --> 01:19:56,240
Speaker 4: Tears peace out.

1651
01:19:57,280 --> 01:19:58,240
Speaker 3: It's the.

1652
01:19:59,640 --> 01:20:05,439
Speaker 7: Time time. It's the most squanical time, call the most

1653
01:20:05,720 --> 01:20:26,040
Speaker 7: squanderical time of the.

1654
01:20:18,120 --> 01:20:22,200
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1655
01:20:22,200 --> 01:20:24,720
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1656
01:20:24,720 --> 01:20:27,519
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