1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,759 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 2: It's always a good day when I hear Josh Green 7 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 2: is coming on the show, of course, reporting and columnizing 8 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 2: for Bloomberg Business Week. On this day that we find 9 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 2: Donald Trump on Long Island. James Mahoney, our producer, is 10 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 2: still with us today despite the fact that Donald Trump 11 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 2: is going into the coliseum, He's going to be talking 12 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 2: about salt. He's going to be talking about the border. 13 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: That is the big event here today, promoting his promise 14 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 2: to get salt back, remembering that he's the reason why 15 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: this was an issue to begin with. JD Vance in Raleigh, 16 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 2: North Carolina, and we're coming off Kamala Harris's. 17 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 3: Big day at the NABJ. 18 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 2: But with the Fed meeting in mind, the economy is 19 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: something that kind of directs our focus today and that's 20 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 2: where we start our conversation with Josh. It's great to 21 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 2: see welcome back Grates to be back a balance of power. 22 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:20,119 Speaker 2: You've got a couple of columns I want to ask 23 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 2: you about. One of them is awfully important as we 24 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 2: consider this economic conversation. Democrats aren't sure which Kamala Harris 25 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: they're going to get, and you bring us to the 26 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 2: sidelines of the convention where we of course brought our 27 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 2: audience here and the debate around specifically when it comes 28 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 2: to the economy, what version of Kamala Harris we're going 29 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 2: to see. She had an opportunity to speak to the 30 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 2: Business Roundtable this week. Tim Wallas is apparently going instead. 31 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 2: When do we find out, Well, we'll find out. 32 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 3: The day after election day. Ok So, so you know, 33 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 3: one of the stories. 34 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 4: That I wrote for Business Week was about a conversation 35 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 4: that was happening on the sidelines of the Democratic Convention 36 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 4: among Democrats that really has not gotten any airtime at 37 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 4: all because it's one Democrats don't want to have public 38 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 4: and it's the anxiety especially among progressive Democrats, people like 39 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and AOC about what Kamala Harris 40 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 4: really stands for. She doesn't have a kind of clear 41 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 4: set of policy priorities. She's made very friendly noises towards 42 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 4: the business community, whether it's Business Roundtable or the people 43 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 4: she surrounded herselves with. 44 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 3: And yet these progressives. 45 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 4: Don't want to come out and publicly challenge her the 46 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 4: way you would in a normal presidential election cycle because 47 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,639 Speaker 4: it's so late in the game and they don't want 48 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 4: to give Donald Trump anything to attack her with. 49 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 2: Which kind of leaves her to her own devices here. 50 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 2: But what does Wall Street think? Because this conventional wisdom 51 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 2: that Donald Trump is friendlier inherently to the markets brings 52 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 2: us to an interesting standoff here because Kamala Harris hasn't, 53 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,799 Speaker 2: for instance, said that she wants to tax unrealized gains 54 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:54,919 Speaker 2: or some of the other things associated with Joe Biden. 55 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 2: So does Wall Street know what it's getting? 56 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 3: I don't think it does. 57 00:02:57,800 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 4: But the since I've had in talking to people and 58 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 4: talking to Wall Street lobbyists and talking to kind of 59 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 4: pro business democrats, is that they're really feeling good about Harris. 60 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:06,519 Speaker 3: And I think the reason. 61 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 4: For that is because she hasn't had her feet held 62 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 4: to the flames by progressives like Elizabeth Warren, and so 63 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 4: she's in a sense been able to present herself as 64 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 4: being all things to all people, and that's a wonderful 65 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 4: superpower if you're a politician, because one of the reasons 66 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 4: why she's been able to unify the Democratic Party. But 67 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 4: on the other hand, if you look at some of 68 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 4: the things she's talked about in her economic speeches, attacking 69 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 4: price gouging, that sort of things, these are noises that 70 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 4: you would hear from a Sanders or a Warren and 71 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 4: not something I think Wall Street would be super excited about. 72 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 4: So I think she's really a big question mark for 73 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 4: all Democrats. 74 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: That's a great point. She did a pretty long interview yesterday. 75 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: I know she's getting knocked for not doing many of them. 76 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 2: The nabj as I mentioned is she really leaned on 77 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 2: housing as the issue to appeal to not only the 78 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 2: people in the room, but the crowd she's trying to 79 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 2: reach on the campaign trail. That's not Wall Street, right, 80 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 2: She's talking to consumers, people who don't feel like they 81 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 2: have a foot in the door. 82 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 3: Literally. Yeah. 83 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 4: I mean, the way I think about it is that 84 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 4: what Harris has done is present herself as a kind 85 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 4: of middle of the road populist. And what I mean 86 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 4: by that is she's sought to address the economic concerns 87 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 4: that a lot of people have in light of all 88 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 4: the inflation we've seen under the Harris Biden administration, housing 89 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 4: prices of skyrocket. 90 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 3: It's hard to buy a house. 91 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 4: We know from polls, I know from talking to voters 92 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 4: people are angry about that. 93 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 3: They're concerned. 94 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 4: So what she's doing is trying to allay their fears. 95 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 4: So I don't think that that was a message necessarily 96 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:32,359 Speaker 4: about Wall Street. I think it was her trying to 97 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 4: convey that I am a different politician. I'll be a 98 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 4: different kind of president than Joe Biden. I'm gonna help 99 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 4: bring down house prices. I'm gonna help you buy a house. 100 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 2: Well, whatever economic message Donald Trump is trying to get 101 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 2: forth and I will, you can tweet me, start sending 102 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:49,559 Speaker 2: them now, it's being clouded by what in the world 103 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 2: is going on in Springfield, Ohio, which is something else 104 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 2: that you're writing about as well. There's been some really 105 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 2: great journalism the last twenty four to forty eight hours 106 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 2: getting to the bottom of where these rumors came from. 107 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 2: A Haitian immigrants eating pets and as Donald Trump suggests, geese. 108 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 2: Apparently at one point this is a woman who had 109 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 2: lost her cat and thought. She found the cat later 110 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 2: in the basement and apologized to the Haitian immigrants in 111 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 2: her community. The campaign, according to the Wall Street Journal, 112 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 2: reached out to the city manager in Springfield on September 113 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 2: ninth to find out if there's any truth to these rumors. 114 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 2: The answer was no. It was the next day Donald 115 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 2: Trump put them on television. And the way you're getting 116 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 2: to this is it's kind of scary. A rational minded 117 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 2: debate viewer might have assumed Trump's charge would hurt him. 118 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 2: As you say, experts on misinformation say, that's not generally 119 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 2: how it works. Tell us why and how scary are 120 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 2: you know? 121 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 4: I've done a lot of reporting and misinformation over the years, 122 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 4: and this was just a wonderful distillation of how it 123 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 4: works and how it doesn't necessarily work like people would 124 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 4: think it would. You know, most rational minded people, as 125 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 4: I wrote, would think that sounds absolutely crazy. It's going 126 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 4: to have to boomerang and hurt Donald Trump. Why would 127 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 4: he say something like that? Speaking the disinformation experts, I say, 128 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 4: you know, that's not really how it works. What Trump 129 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 4: is doing there is trying to reprogram the news conversation 130 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 4: what people are talking about and I'll admit to somebody 131 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 4: who's watching the debate in real time and writing my 132 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 4: instant analysis on Bloomberg, I thought the big takeaway was 133 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 4: the weakness of Trump's answer on abortion, his kind of 134 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 4: meandering inability to say whether or not he would support 135 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 4: a federal abortion van. I thought Harris was a big 136 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 4: winner on that issue, and that was going to dominate 137 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 4: the conversation. 138 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 3: Yet here we are more than a week later. What 139 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 3: are we talking about abortion? 140 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 4: No, we're talking about misinformation about pettitting. And what that's done, 141 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 4: according to these disentration experts, is it's really shifted the 142 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 4: topic of political debate onto a subject immigration that Trump 143 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 4: and Republicans are much more comfortable talking about, and it's 144 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:55,480 Speaker 4: denied a kind of media oxygen to talk about things 145 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,239 Speaker 4: it might have been more advantageous to Kamala Harris, whether 146 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 4: it was Trump's in a to sort of explain how 147 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 4: he'd replaced Obamacare, or whether it was you know, his 148 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 4: his various attacks on her race and her qualifications. Nope, 149 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 4: here we are talking about what Trump wants to talk about, 150 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 4: which is kind of where we've been in the news for. 151 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 3: The last ten years. 152 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess that's also, dree, it was trending on 153 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 2: Twitter before we went home that night of the debate, 154 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: and it was everywhere. Of course, that next morning you 155 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 2: did reach out to the campaign, which has essentially been 156 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 2: blaming the media on this. But of course, to your 157 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 2: point on Sunday morning, this was the topic. 158 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: JD. 159 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 2: Fance said, I created stories like these, made a lot 160 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 2: of us wonder what his motivations were. 161 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, and Trump has subsequently praised Vance his vice presidential nominie, 162 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 4: for creating stories about this. 163 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 3: And does he mean that literally? 164 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 5: Uh? 165 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 3: With Trump, you can never quite be sure, but he 166 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 3: usually says what's on his mind. So I think I 167 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 3: think you probably can. Yeah. 168 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 4: But what Advance explained and what the Trump campaign said 169 00:07:57,960 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 4: to me was, look what we were trying to do. 170 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 4: Shed a light on the problems that the influx of 171 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 4: Haitian immigrants have had on Springfield, Ohio. The campaign spokes 172 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 4: did not mention pet eating, but said, you know, public 173 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:16,559 Speaker 4: safety problem, stresses on public services, that sort of thing. Again, 174 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 4: trying to redirect the news conversation to a subject that 175 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 4: they feel is stronger for them than the various other 176 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 4: things that Trump said in the campaign. As wild as 177 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 4: that sounds to somebody who saw the debate in real 178 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 4: time and ask themselves, what on earth is Trump talking about? 179 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:32,719 Speaker 2: We're out of time. Do you think he actually goes there? 180 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 2: Donald Trump says he would visit Springfield. 181 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:37,319 Speaker 4: You know, it's hard for me to imagine how he 182 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 4: could resist. It would be a scene, and Donald Trump 183 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 4: will be right in the middle of it. And that's 184 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 4: where he always. 185 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 2: Wanted to magical logistics behind a visit like that, with 186 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 2: state police already trying to keep people safe in Springfield, 187 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could come see us. Let's do 188 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 2: more of this between now and November. 189 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 3: Sounds great if. 190 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 2: You'd indulge me. Bloomberg Business Week, of course a couple 191 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:56,679 Speaker 2: of great columns for you to look out for from 192 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 2: Josh Green. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. We've got a 193 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 2: lot more ahead on the fastest show in politics. Thanks 194 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 2: for being with us on Bloomberg. 195 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can 196 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 197 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: rounoo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 198 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 199 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven. 200 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 2: Thirty new polling out as we prepare to bring in 201 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 2: our panel from the swing states, and this is a 202 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 2: pretty big deal. With again the economy in mind. We've 203 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 2: been asking, of course, voters in our own swing state 204 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 2: poll who do you trust? Who do you trust more 205 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 2: to handle the economy, interest rates, the price of goods, 206 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,559 Speaker 2: and nowhere more does that matter in the seven swing 207 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 2: states that are going to decide this election. And we 208 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,479 Speaker 2: can drill down even more with the help of Quinnipiac 209 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 2: University out with new polling today from three key swing 210 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 2: states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. You know I were talking about 211 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 2: them if you're familiar with this program before I even 212 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 2: read you the numbers here, because this does bring good 213 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 2: news to Kamala Harris Cridipiac polster Tim molloy writes the 214 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 2: GOP's most go to attack strategies against Democrats on immigration 215 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 2: and the economy, maybe losing momentum, likely voters now see 216 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 2: a little daylight, he writes, in most cases between Harris 217 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 2: and Trump on who can best handle those key issues. 218 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 3: So here we go. 219 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 2: Headline numbers Pennsylvania Harris fifty one, Trump forty five Michigan 220 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 2: Harris fifty Trump forty five, Wisconsin Harris forty eight, Trump 221 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 2: forty seven. She's leading, if not within the margin, in 222 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 2: all three. But how about the economy. This is important. 223 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 2: Likely voters were asked who they think would do a 224 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 2: better job handling five issues, including this one the economy. Pennsylvania, 225 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 2: they're basically time now fifty percent go Trump, forty eight Harris, Michigan, 226 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 2: fifty percent Trump forty eight Harris Wisconsin. A little bit 227 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 2: more of a gap fifty one percent Trump forty seven Harris. 228 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:15,439 Speaker 2: She was underwater on these numbers, of course, until now. 229 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 2: And that's where we start with our signature panel. Rick 230 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Shanzino are back with us today. Genie, 231 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 2: of course, political science professor at Iona University and senior 232 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 2: democracy fellow with the Center for the Study of the 233 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 2: Presidency in Congress. Rick Davis partner Stone Court Capital. They 234 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 2: are both Bloomberg Politics contributors. It's great to have you 235 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 2: here as these polling numbers hit the tape. We've got 236 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 2: a couple others today worth looking at. But Genie, when 237 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 2: you drill down on the economy, specifically in these swing states, 238 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 2: this looks like real progress for Kamala Harris. How do 239 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 2: you read it? 240 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 6: It does, and you know, I think I read it 241 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 6: in two ways. Number one is it's a reflection of 242 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 6: the fact that many voters were frustrated. They didn't feel 243 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 6: like Joe Biden and his age and several other factors 244 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 6: could fight for them. So he was having a difficult 245 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 6: time on those issues. So we've got a new candidate. 246 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 6: And the other factor is the numbers have improved in 247 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 6: both of these areas. You look at immigration, the number 248 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 6: of people coming across the border is way down. We're 249 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 6: not hearing as much bad news from the border at 250 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 6: this point. That's why Donald Trump has decided to go 251 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 6: up to Springfield, Ohio. You look at the economic numbers, 252 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:35,239 Speaker 6: reports that for the first time since the pandemic, people's 253 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 6: people are seeing an increase of about four percent in 254 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 6: an increase in their income, and so these things are 255 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 6: reflecting today we're looking at maybe the first interest rate 256 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 6: cut in a long time. So the real numbers are 257 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 6: helping out with a new candidate and we're seeing them 258 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 6: close the gap. Donald Trump still owns these issues, but 259 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 6: now it's almost in all cases within the margin of air. 260 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 2: Rick, I'd love your take on this. We should mention 261 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 2: the methodology here for a moment, thirteen hundred likely voters 262 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:11,199 Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania with a margin of error two point seven percent, 263 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 2: slightly smaller samples in Michigan and Wisconsin with slightly larger 264 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 2: three percentage point plus margins of error. Again for Michigan 265 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 2: and Wisconsin. What is Kamala Harris doing right here? Or 266 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 2: is it Donald Trump not talking enough about the economy? 267 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 3: And before I get to that, Joe, I. 268 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,959 Speaker 7: Do want to add to your sort of description of 269 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 7: the polls. And it is multi candidate field, so it 270 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 7: isn't head to head. It includes Jill Stein in Michigan. 271 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 7: I had a lot of people storried about and so 272 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 7: I think these are probably the best pictures we've seen 273 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 7: in a long time, after the debates, after all the 274 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 7: things that have been going on, to properly reflect the 275 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 7: stay of the race in the Blue Wall states again, 276 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 7: was like Genie said, the base of the Biden campaign 277 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 7: was the Blue Wall and it appears that may be 278 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 7: the same for Kamala Harris. The reality is, when you're 279 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 7: running campaigns, you don't want to see your opponent at 280 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 7: that fifty that's a bad number. Forty eight, forty nine, 281 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 7: forty seven. You still got like, Okay, there's a window 282 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 7: I can get there. But the reality is you don't 283 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 7: see Trump busting that forty six percent number very often. 284 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 7: And the fact that the Harris campaign has gotten up 285 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 7: over fifty percent in two of the key battleground states 286 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 7: in the Blue Wall has got to be a very 287 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 7: big concern for the Trump campaign. The fact that she's 288 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 7: writing that popularity on improvements with the economy and immigration 289 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 7: is equally disturbing. They have to have those issues on 290 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 7: their side. It has to be a wedge in order 291 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 7: to motivate their own candidate, their own voters. And so, 292 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 7: you know, I think it's a perilous place to be. 293 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 7: We've seen other polls in other you know, Sun Belt 294 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 7: states that reflect a little bit better activity by Trump. 295 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 7: But the reality is there's not much you need. If 296 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 7: you win the Blue Wall and one electoral vote in Nebraska, 297 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 7: you're president of the United States. That's two seventy And 298 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 7: so this is this has got to shake up the 299 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 7: tribe down in mar A Lago. They've got to be 300 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 7: looking at this hard. And and then today you see 301 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 7: Donald Trump futsing around in New York when he ought 302 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 7: to be in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan. 303 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 2: Well, and these are the three states again we're talking 304 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 2: about here, the actual swing states and Genie. It's not 305 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 2: just the economy that we're looking at here. Donald Trump 306 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 2: does lead Kamala Harris, but it's in fact within the margin. 307 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 2: In Michigan, for instance, when it comes to immigration, that 308 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 2: one really jumped off the page to me here it's 309 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 2: much more pronounced. To Wisconsin fifty two percent go Trump, 310 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 2: forty five percent Harris. Michigan there was forty nine to 311 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 2: forty eight, Pennsylvania fifty to forty six. For what is 312 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 2: one of the most powerful issues that Donald Trump has, 313 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 2: and I'm going to point you to another one, an 314 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 2: ipsos scripts pull today finding broad support for this idea 315 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 2: of a mass deportation. A majority of Republicans maybe not 316 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 2: a surprise, eighty six percent support the idea. But guess what, 317 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 2: so to a quarter of Democrats twenty five percent to 318 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 2: Rix points GINI. If Donald Trump just talked about these 319 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 2: two things, the economy and the border, in the three 320 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 2: swing states for the rest of this campaign, would that 321 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 2: not be a strategy? 322 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 6: It's a strategy. It's a better strategy than we've seen. 323 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 6: You know, I think when we talked to Republicans after 324 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 6: the debate, many scratched their head as to why Donald 325 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 6: Trump it makes sense to keep pivoting to immigration, which 326 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 6: he did consistently. He did not do the same when 327 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 6: it came to the economy, and many Republicans wanted him 328 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 6: to do that because that has been a week point 329 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 6: for Democrats, and now these polls we see her closing 330 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 6: this gap. So that would be a strategy to talk 331 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,400 Speaker 6: about these two issues consistently in the Blue Wall States. 332 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 6: You know, I understand why Donald Trump is in New York. 333 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 6: I'm in New York. Love New York. But to Rick's point, 334 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 6: probably not the best use of your time when you're 335 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 6: at your you know, you're about fifty days. But I 336 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 6: would say this ipso's poll is utterly fascinating. 337 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: You know. 338 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,400 Speaker 6: One thing I would caution against these kind of polls 339 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 6: is sometimes they are reflection of people's real frustration with 340 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 6: government's lack of addressing an issue, and in this case, 341 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 6: it's immigration. It's been a crisis for decades, it has 342 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 6: not been addressed in the way it should. We know 343 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 6: that but I am not sure that people would hold 344 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 6: this opinion if they saw in real time what a 345 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:55,159 Speaker 6: mass deportation looks like. So I have some concerns about 346 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,200 Speaker 6: this poll. You can look at the mass deportation if 347 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 6: it happened from a lot of perspectives, including the cost, 348 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:05,400 Speaker 6: but just from the humanitarian perspective alone, I think you'd 349 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 6: see a decrease in that number if it came to fruition. 350 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,200 Speaker 6: So I think this is more a reflection of people's concerns, 351 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 6: which to your point, means Donald Trump should be talking 352 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 6: about this issue. But he's also got a hit on 353 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:21,640 Speaker 6: the economy in these swing states because when she closes 354 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 6: this gap this way, that is a problem for him 355 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 6: because how does he surround that. 356 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 2: I don't know what your thought is on this mass 357 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 2: deportation pull, Rick, GENI. You might have a point when 358 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 2: people start seeing the police knocking on doors at their 359 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 2: neighbor's house twenty five percent. Though a quarter of Democrats 360 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 2: think this is a good idea, at least on paper, Rick, 361 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 2: how would you exploit that as a campaign operative? 362 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 7: You know, Look, I mean I think that the president, 363 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:59,120 Speaker 7: the President Trump has not done enough to articulate plans 364 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 7: on how to mine gate immigration. It's almost been, you know, 365 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 7: sort of his go to place. He likes to talk 366 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 7: about Springfield, Ohio these days, which actually isn't a policy. 367 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 7: And the reality is if he did talk more about 368 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 7: articulating his plans for things like a deportation or strengthening 369 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 7: the border, or what's he going to do with Mexico, 370 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 7: I mean, the reality is he did more of that 371 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 7: in twenty sixteen, and he's doing today, and he's not 372 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 7: doing himself any favors because, as you see from these 373 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 7: polls and as Genie articulated, people universally are frustrated with 374 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 7: the southern border and they want to have it fixed. 375 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 7: And the fact that Donald Trump actually can point to, 376 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,439 Speaker 7: you know, numbers on the southern border that are better 377 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 7: than the Biden Harris administration, it's stunning to me that 378 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 7: he doesn't talk about it more. The reality is he's 379 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:58,960 Speaker 7: so into sensationalizing these issues, talking about Haitian immigrants eating 380 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 7: dogs and cats, which he has to make up in 381 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 7: order to do it. He would be much better off 382 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 7: talking about the facts on the ground and real solutions. 383 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,640 Speaker 7: And I think he would really cut into democratic margins 384 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 7: on this, as you see in this current blue Wall 385 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 7: state pole. I mean, Gris is now caught up to 386 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 7: him on immigration in those places. 387 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:20,439 Speaker 2: That is remarkable, and I know that he's going to 388 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 2: talk about it a lot tonight, Genie at the Coliseum, 389 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,199 Speaker 2: Donald Trump on Long Island. He's going to be in 390 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 2: representative of d'esposito's district talking about this, and you know 391 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 2: how that plays in that district. Can Donald Trump do 392 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,919 Speaker 2: himself a favor, even though he's in New York with 393 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 2: considering the audience, the reception he's going to get tonight, 394 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 2: and the social media coverage that will follow, you know. 395 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 6: He absolutely could. The reality is is that Long Island 396 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 6: is a conservative place. People are very frustrated all across 397 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,479 Speaker 6: the country, but in New York in particular, about the 398 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 6: issue of the economy and about immigration. But he has 399 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 6: to do, to Rick's point, lay out a plan. And 400 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,720 Speaker 6: the problem with what he's been doing with this issue 401 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 6: in Springfield, Ohio is that he is talking about something 402 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 6: that if you just take a glance at social media, 403 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 6: people are laughing at They have dogs and cats running 404 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,199 Speaker 6: away from Springfield, Ohio. Memes all over the place that 405 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 6: Democrats could never buy. But the reality is this is 406 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 6: a serious issue for people in New York. Just as 407 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 6: an example, the immigrants that have come up here, that 408 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 6: have been sent up here in many cases by southern governors, 409 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 6: have flooded the school districts. This is a problem for 410 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 6: people in New York. So talk about the pain they 411 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 6: are feeling and how you're going to address that, rather 412 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 6: than talking about unsubstantiated rumors which have now been totally 413 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 6: debunked about people eating cats and dogs, and that would 414 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 6: do him a favor. But I would also caution it 415 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 6: wasn't long ago on Long Island, as you know, Joe, 416 00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 6: we saw a Democrat take on the issue of immigrant 417 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 6: very successfully and win. So Donald Trump has his work 418 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 6: cut out for him. He's got to be disciplined and 419 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 6: that's not his strong suit in these rallies. 420 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 2: Well, we'll be listening closely to the message tonight inside 421 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 2: the coliseum. 422 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 423 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and 424 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,920 Speaker 1: then Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 425 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 426 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 427 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 8: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where 428 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 8: we do know roughly thirty six minutes from now, we'll 429 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 8: have answers to a few questions. We will know what 430 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 8: the move was twenty five or fifty basis points. We 431 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,959 Speaker 8: will know whether or not this was a unanimous decision 432 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 8: or maybe unusually, we might have dissents. We'll also know 433 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 8: what the dot plot looks like, not just about this 434 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 8: cut today, but what they expect to do over the 435 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 8: coming meetings into next year. But the other answers will 436 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 8: be left to one individual, Chairman Powell, when he takes 437 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 8: the podium in that new conference thirty minutes later. And 438 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 8: that's always where it gets a little tricky, that's. 439 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 2: Right, taking questions from the likes of Michael McKee, who'll 440 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 2: be reporting a bit later on for Bloomberg of course. 441 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 2: And yeah, we're knocking to dust off of plot from June, 442 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,919 Speaker 2: I believe, with a major update today. And this is 443 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 2: where we start our conversation with Catherine Edwards's economic policy 444 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 2: consultant writer for Bloomberg Opinion. Catherine, welcome back. 445 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 3: It's great to see you. 446 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 2: I think you're in the fifty camp. You can let 447 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 2: us know if it's if that is the case. Though 448 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 2: getting to Kayley's reference, does J. Powell need to have 449 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 2: a unanimous decision? 450 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,919 Speaker 5: I do wonder about what unanimity gives you when he 451 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 5: has made very clear that the risk right now is 452 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,320 Speaker 5: to the labor market and not the fight against inflation. 453 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 5: I mean, he signaled that pretty clearly at Jackson Hole. 454 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 5: And so to have someone you know not in concert, 455 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,440 Speaker 5: you know, signifies to me either that they don't think 456 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 5: the labor market as important, which would be upsetting, I 457 00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 5: think to a lot of people, or they're signifying that 458 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 5: he has hasn't gone far enough, and they tend to 459 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 5: I think, kind of close ranks and come together around 460 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,120 Speaker 5: the big decisions to let everyone know that this economy 461 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 5: is being steered, you know, in concert. 462 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,479 Speaker 8: So if we consider what the what he would have 463 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 8: to personally message if the move is fifty because there 464 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 8: is a narrative out there that a move of that 465 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 8: size could signal panic that they are seeing something that 466 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 8: the rest of us might not be yet, that there 467 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 8: is more reason for concern in the economy right now. 468 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 8: So how important would his messaging be, frankly, in either 469 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 8: instance to explain why they felt the need to frontload 470 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 8: or not to frontload. 471 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, and I worry that if the message around fifty 472 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 5: is or the message around twenty five would be, well, 473 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 5: we just didn't want to play into market expectations or 474 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 5: we didn't want to think that people were panicking of 475 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,720 Speaker 5: how much is the message around what other people will 476 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 5: be messaging versus what the economy needs. And I think 477 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 5: what I've seen in Powell over the years is that 478 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 5: he tends to be very plain spoken about this was 479 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,919 Speaker 5: what the economy needed right now, and if we messed up, 480 00:24:57,960 --> 00:24:59,640 Speaker 5: we messed up. If we went too low in the past, 481 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 5: we went to low in the past. But it's about 482 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 5: meeting the needs of the transitory. If we said transitory 483 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 5: and we were wrong, then we were wrong. And I 484 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,120 Speaker 5: think a lot of people were expecting to cut last 485 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,119 Speaker 5: time they met. They didn't. They didn't do that, So 486 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 5: I it is very possible for him to say, this 487 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 5: is just what the economy needs. It's not panic, it's 488 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 5: it's prescriptive, and. 489 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 3: This is good. 490 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,919 Speaker 2: It's not panic prescriptive. How about politics, this is the 491 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 2: politics program. We'll hand things off to the market experts 492 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 2: in about five minutes. Does he need to be deliberate 493 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 2: about this issue? 494 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 5: I mean, I think the narrative is kind of forcing 495 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 5: his hand there to say that this. You know, they 496 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 5: can't take an election into into accounts. You know, I 497 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 5: kind of think of this as making a little bit 498 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 5: of the James Comy mistake, you know, working so hard 499 00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,879 Speaker 5: to look like you're not in support of one person 500 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 5: that you actively start supporting the other. You know, you overcorrect. 501 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 5: I mean, that's that's not a word that the FED 502 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 5: really likes, over correcting, but that it's definitely a possibility 503 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,439 Speaker 5: when you're trying to take into account politics. And you know, 504 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 5: what I would say is politics. I mean, economics is hard, 505 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 5: and there's no need to bring politics into this decision. 506 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 8: So if politics don't factor into the actual outcomes from 507 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:07,760 Speaker 8: the Federal Reserve, that's not to say that what the 508 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 8: Federal Reserve decides to do doesn't affect outcomes in politics. 509 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 8: This is a decision that they're going to be making 510 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 8: weeks ahead of a presidential election. So I guess the 511 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 8: question is to what extent do you expect that the 512 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 8: actual beginning of the easing cycle will influence consumer sentiment 513 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 8: If it is coming simultaneously with a slowdown in the 514 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 8: labor market, that might be felt first knowing that even 515 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,679 Speaker 8: eas policy might have a lad defect kicking in. 516 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 5: I mean, most people's impression of the economy is what 517 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 5: they experience in their day to day lives, and whatever 518 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 5: they read in the newspaper or see on the news, 519 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 5: it's still just how secure they feel. Can they afford 520 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,160 Speaker 5: a home, can they find a job? So I think yes, 521 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 5: the narrative that you can spend some type of narrative 522 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 5: of like, oh, and here's DC conspiring to help come. 523 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 5: I mean people are going to say that, and then 524 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 5: they're going to say like, oh, he didn't go far 525 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 5: enough because they want to help Trump. I mean that 526 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 5: all of that is possible. I think think the real 527 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 5: question is will people see an improvement in their lives? 528 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 5: And if they don't, if they don't start acting in 529 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,199 Speaker 5: the labor market's best interest soon, the answer to that 530 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 5: is almost certainly going to be known. 531 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 2: If you're Kamala Harris, though you're hoping for a psychological 532 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,400 Speaker 2: impact today, this is a good headline. I don't know 533 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 2: to what extent shal message. That was one of the 534 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 2: conversations we were having earlier. But how about in terms 535 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 2: of material improvement for consumers? This is a short period 536 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:26,320 Speaker 2: of time. 537 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 5: It's a short period of time. Yet maybe there's a 538 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 5: mood boost to this, but it's there's one hundred and 539 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 5: sixty five million workers in a pretty large economy. You 540 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 5: don't get to take really dramatic right or left turns. 541 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 5: And frankly, we don't want the economy to do that. 542 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 5: I mean, we want to be on a steady path. 543 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 5: And that can be really frustrating for people who want 544 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,680 Speaker 5: relief immediately. Just to say it's going to get better soon, 545 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,919 Speaker 5: it's cold comfort. So maybe people start cheering about how 546 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 5: well the economy is doing, and that makes people more 547 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,399 Speaker 5: mad because they still haven't found their jobs. It's so 548 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,600 Speaker 5: hard to predict how an individual will internalize this great, 549 00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,359 Speaker 5: big economy that they participate in. 550 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 8: Or one of the most immediate transmissions might be in 551 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 8: mortgage rates in the housing market. This is selfish coming 552 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 8: for me as I'm in the process of trying to 553 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 8: buy my first home and I'm like, rates go as 554 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,400 Speaker 8: low as possible, please, right, get down. But that's where 555 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,680 Speaker 8: the dot plot will come into play, because those will 556 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 8: start moving even before the cuts come. If the expectation 557 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 8: is there that rates are going to go materially lower. 558 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that if we can get built in 559 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 5: reductions to the mortgage rates, to get the housing market unlocked, 560 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:26,719 Speaker 5: to get people to be willing to sell their homes 561 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 5: so that you can buy one. Hopefully it's a great place. 562 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 5: Can you just lift off the specs that you're looking 563 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 5: for here and we'll telegraph that right to now. I 564 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 5: you know, yeah, I mean there's lots of relief coming. 565 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,840 Speaker 5: But I think sometimes we get a little bit upside 566 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 5: down thinking in elections about what does one person want 567 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 5: versus the other? And it's always helpful to remember that 568 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 5: the housing market has been brutal for so many Americans 569 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 5: for these past few years, and any type of movement, 570 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 5: however it affects the election, is good for our economy. 571 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 5: For people to feel confident that they can do something 572 00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 5: that they see is so fundamental as buying a home. 573 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 2: Should Kamala Harris today credit for winning the war on inflation? 574 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 2: I think the first cut we finally made it. 575 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 5: That would be so foolhardy. But I would never put 576 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 5: it past the politician not to take credit for something good. Yeah, 577 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 5: well that's different, right. 578 00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:15,400 Speaker 8: Well, I guess so finally, before we let you go, 579 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 8: we just have a minute left. There's also the consideration 580 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 8: of fiscal policy, always that the FED doesn't have influence on, 581 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 8: but they do have to react to if we actually 582 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 8: see the policy proposals. Frankly from both of these candidates 583 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 8: coming to fruition, there's an argument that they would be 584 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 8: inflationary and maybe cut this cutting cycle short. 585 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,479 Speaker 5: Do you agree, yes, I mean we haven't seen, you know, 586 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 5: a lot of fiscal responsibility telegraphed from either candidate. We've 587 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 5: got record deficits right now. We're We're not, you know, 588 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 5: at an active war, We're not in an active recession. 589 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 3: Deficits should not be this high. 590 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 5: We have sabotaged our ability to collect sufficient revenue from 591 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 5: the federal governments. And at some point we are going 592 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 5: to need an adult in the room say we are 593 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 5: not raising enough money. They're not going to say that 594 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 5: six weeks before an election, but someone needs to say it. 595 00:29:58,320 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 8: Maybe Palable today, who. 596 00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 5: Knows be a moment that that would be a moment. 597 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 8: A great to have you on FED day. Thank you 598 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 8: so much for joining us. Catherine, of course, Bloomberg opinion 599 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 8: columnist and an economic policy consultant. 600 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the balance of Power podcast. Make 601 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 602 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 603 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 604 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com