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Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Brian Curtis.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Doug Prisner. Here are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 1: Israeli operations into Gaza are being carrying out mostly from

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Speaker 1: the air so far, but that may be changing. At

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Speaker 1: Baxter's covering this story from the nine to sixty Newswoman

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Speaker 1: in San Francisco ed.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, Brian. Israel is building up bases and

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Speaker 3: ground forces near the border, the Gaza border. Israeli generals

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Speaker 3: are saying they don't want hostages in the way, but

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Wendy Benjaminson says the goal is really clear.

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Speaker 4: They are very immune, i should say too pressure from

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Speaker 4: the international community. They do what they believe is right

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Speaker 4: for the security of their nation, and they will do it.

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Speaker 4: And I think Eli f Benjamin there was, as Dan said,

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Speaker 4: extremely unequivocal. They're going to crush Hamas. If they can

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Speaker 4: rescue some hostages at the same time, great, but the

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Speaker 4: primary objective, in his words, were to crush Hamas.

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Speaker 3: And Bloomberg's Amory hor Durn said there are American hostages

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Speaker 3: in Gaza.

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Speaker 5: Americans are in Gaza being held by Hamas. He also

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Speaker 5: said that now we know that the death toll of

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Speaker 5: Americans over this weekend massacre by Hamas and Israeli territory.

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Speaker 5: That number now stands at fourteen. It was at eleven,

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Speaker 5: So this is weighing on the president.

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Speaker 3: Now, Israel is flying in its troops stationed in the region,

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Speaker 3: increasing personnel by three hundred thousand, and Bloomberg's Ethan Bronner

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Speaker 3: says also setting up military bases closer to Gaza.

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Speaker 6: As we said, they are preparing what we expect to

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Speaker 6: be a massive assault. You're right that they have not

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Speaker 6: spelled out for us that it's going to be a

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Speaker 6: ground war, but it seems inevitable that it will be

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Speaker 6: be the first time in almost ten years that Israel

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Speaker 6: does that.

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Speaker 3: Says a. US is already sending support.

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Speaker 6: Israelis have said that their supplies are stretched. I assume

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Speaker 6: this involves the Patriot Missile anti missile system that they have,

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Speaker 6: as well as basic equipment for soldiers and things for

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Speaker 6: drones to watch and prepare for hits from the air.

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Speaker 3: And Browner says emergency notifications are out within Israel itself

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Speaker 3: that there is a real possibility for more attacks from Hamas.

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Speaker 3: US President Joe Biden says more munitions on the way for.

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Speaker 7: Seventy five years. Is the only guaranteur the security of

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Speaker 7: Jewish people around the world, so that the atrocity of

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Speaker 7: the past could never happen again. Let there be no

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Speaker 7: doubt the United States has Israel's back. We'll make sure

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Speaker 7: the Jewish and democratic state of Isuel can defend itself

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Speaker 7: today tomorrow as we always have.

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Speaker 3: And Biden says, a mass does not stand for the

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Speaker 3: Palestinian people.

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Speaker 7: Atrocities sick me.

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Speaker 6: We're at Israel.

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Speaker 3: Let's make no mistake, yeah, calling it an act of

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Speaker 3: sheer evil. And Biden says as well. Security is being

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Speaker 3: some increase within the United States for fear of attack

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Speaker 3: on the Jewish community. Now, there's some international concern about

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Speaker 3: the station of US warships in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey's

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Speaker 3: President Resa Baerleiwan says it will cause mass occurs in Gaza.

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Speaker 3: US National Security Commission President John Kirby, on Bloomberg's Balance

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Speaker 3: of Power, rejects that notion.

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Speaker 8: That carrier strike group that is in the Eastern med

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Speaker 8: right now is there to deter any escalation of the

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Speaker 8: conflict beyond where it is right now. That's my response

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Speaker 8: to President.

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Speaker 3: Erwin US also warning Iran and Syria not to become

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Speaker 3: involved in helping Hamas, and Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln

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Speaker 3: plans to go to Israel later in the week. Other

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Speaker 3: news House Republicans meeting today. They try to agree on

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Speaker 3: a speaker before a possible vote tomorrow. They want to

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Speaker 3: avoid another circus of confusion. Kevin McCarthy has asked that

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Speaker 3: he not be nominated that according to punch Bowl Global News,

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Speaker 3: powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalist and analysts

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Speaker 3: in over one hundred twenty countries. In San Francisco, I'm

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Speaker 3: at Baxter. This is Bloomberg Bryant.

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Speaker 1: All right, thanks very much, Ed. Ed Baxter will have

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Speaker 1: the latest on the Israel Hamas conflict all throughout the program.

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Speaker 1: We move on now to some other top stories of

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Speaker 1: the day. US treasury yields fell after some dubvish commentary

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Speaker 1: from Fed officials and perhaps on some haven buying as well.

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Speaker 1: Here's Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostik.

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Speaker 9: I think that our policy rate is a sufficiently restrictive

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Speaker 9: position to get inflation down to two percent. Actually, don't

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Speaker 9: think we need to increase rates anymore.

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Speaker 1: That's Raphael Bostick. In the meantime, Bostick's Minneapolis counterpart, Neil Kashkari,

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Speaker 1: said that it's possible that rising yields may mean the

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Speaker 1: FED has to do less, but he thinks that the

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Speaker 1: Fed's rate outlook at the moment is unclear, and FED

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Speaker 1: Governor Chris Waller said that the FED will stay on

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Speaker 1: the job to contain inflation, but he mostly avoided the

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Speaker 1: current state of markets or monetary policy and doug at

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Speaker 1: the moment, what we're seeing here is a roughly thirty

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Speaker 1: percent chance of a rate hike by December, so you

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Speaker 1: can flip that around and say seventy percent likelihood that

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Speaker 1: we will stay on hold.

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Speaker 2: Well, the IMF is saying that global growth will weaken

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Speaker 2: next year. We heard earlier today from the chief economist

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Speaker 2: at the IMF, Pierre Olivier Garinchas.

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Speaker 10: Growth remains slow and uneven. The global economy is limping along,

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Speaker 10: not sprinting. Under our baseline forecast, growth will slow from

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Speaker 10: three point five percent last year to three percent this

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Speaker 10: year and two point nine percent next year, a zero

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Speaker 10: point one percentage point downgrade for twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: He is Pierre Olivier Gourinchas the chief economist at the IMF.

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Speaker 2: Now the fund is also saying today consumer prices for

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Speaker 2: next year could increase from five point two percent all

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Speaker 2: the way up to five point eight percent, and the

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Speaker 2: IMF is calling on central banks to keep policy tight

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Speaker 2: until there is a durable easing in those price pressures.

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Speaker 2: Brian Well China is said to be looking at some

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Speaker 2: new stimulus for it economy and may raise its budget

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Speaker 2: deficit this year to finance it. Bloomberg's April hung has more.

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Speaker 11: We hear policymakers are considering issuing at least one hundred

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Speaker 11: and thirty seven billion dollars of additional sovereign debt for

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Speaker 11: spending on infrastructure that could raise this year's budget deficit

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Speaker 11: to well above the three percent cap set back in March.

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Speaker 11: The discussions would mark a shift in beijing stance. Up

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Speaker 11: until now, the government has avoided broader fiscal stimulus. Source

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Speaker 11: to say an announcement may come as early as this

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Speaker 11: month in Singapore. I'm April Hong Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Back Here in the US, the on again, off again

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Speaker 2: girl friend of Sam Bankman Freed took the stand today,

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Speaker 2: and the trial of the FTX co founder. Here's Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Shanali Bosik.

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Speaker 12: We know that Caroline Allison, who has been a pivotal

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Speaker 12: witness both for the sake of the prosecution as well

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Speaker 12: as someone who's come up in the sake of the defense.

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Speaker 12: She has come up and immediately said, yes, we did

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Speaker 12: commit crimes Sam and I and others. And she said

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Speaker 12: that Sam megman Fried directed her as the CEO of

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Speaker 12: Alameda to commit those crimes. She said, we ultimately took

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Speaker 12: around fourteen billion dollars, some of which we were able

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Speaker 12: to pay back. She said that Alameda took several billion

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Speaker 12: dollars from FTX customers and used it for its own

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Speaker 12: investments and to pay off lenders.

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Speaker 2: That is Bloomberg Shanali Bossik. By the way, Bankman Freed

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Speaker 2: has admitted to making big mistakes while at the helm

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Speaker 2: of FTX. However, he denies intentionally defrauding anyone. Brian Well, we're.

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Speaker 1: Hearing that German shoemaker Birkinstock has priced its initial public

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Speaker 1: offering at forty six dollars a share. Birkenstock had marketed

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Speaker 1: shares of between a range of forty four to forty

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Speaker 1: nine dollars each. The IPO is the last of four

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Speaker 1: big listings seen as pace centers for US equity markets.

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Speaker 1: The story from Bloomberg's and Kates.

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Speaker 13: The move by Birkinstock comes less than a month after

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Speaker 13: UK ship designer arm raised five and a quarter billion

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Speaker 13: dollars in the year's biggest listing. Grocery delivery startup, Instacart's

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Speaker 13: IPO was in the six hundreds sixty million dollar range,

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Speaker 13: put US since down twelve percent. Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 13: expect Birkenstock to fare pretty well when it begins trading,

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Speaker 13: and it could be the last big US debut in

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Speaker 13: twenty twenty three, partly because of federal government shut down,

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Speaker 13: what impact staffing at the Securities and Exchange Commission in Washington.

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Speaker 13: And Kates Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. I'm Brian Curtis, along with

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Speaker 1: Rashad Salamat and our guest is Adam Arelli, former US

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Speaker 1: Ambassador to Bahrain. Ambassador, thanks very much for joining us again.

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Speaker 1: It's been a while. We used to have you on

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Speaker 1: this show a lot. Yeah, it's great to get your

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Speaker 1: insights here. So we've had a pause in markets for

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Speaker 1: a couple of days, and there may be some suggestion

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Speaker 1: in that that what we're seeing in Gaza and in

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Speaker 1: Israel is not a world changing moment. So I want

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Speaker 1: to ask you about that and does that change in

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Speaker 1: particular if Israel does launch a massive ground attack into Gaza.

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Speaker 14: I don't think it Israeli ground attack into Gaza, though,

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Speaker 14: would be sufficient to cause widespread, significant disruption of markets.

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Speaker 14: What would what would be such an event would be

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Speaker 14: if as Balah really goes after Israel in the north,

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Speaker 14: obviously at Iran's behest and the U and and and

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Speaker 14: hostilities escalate from there. Uh. You know, there's a there's

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Speaker 14: a lot of fire US has a lot of firepower

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Speaker 14: in the region. You've got an aircraft's carrier group in

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Speaker 14: the Eastern Mediterranean, We've we've flowed aircraft our own aircraft there.

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Speaker 14: So I think markets would be really spooked by uh,

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Speaker 14: by that level of conflict. And that's frankly, why the

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Speaker 14: administration is being so so clear to everybody who's listening

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Speaker 14: is just don't take advantage of the situation, don't escalate

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Speaker 14: because it could get very ugly, very fast.

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Speaker 15: And out of the thing is also, I mean, if

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Speaker 15: the law did get involved in the Nord, I mean

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Speaker 15: that is essentially a wholly owned subsidiary of the Iranian regime.

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Speaker 15: That would leave no doubts as to Taron's hands on this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah right, I mean, yeah, well, they're already involved. Right,

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Speaker 1: it's just.

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Speaker 14: Mere not to put too fine a point on this,

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Speaker 14: but the decision on where this goes, frankly is in Tehran. Okay.

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Speaker 14: They can either decide to sort of let it play out,

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Speaker 14: let the Israelis do what they want, as they've done

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Speaker 14: in the past, or they can decide to take it

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Speaker 14: up a notch and if they do, if they do

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Speaker 14: decide the latter, Like I said, you know, we've made

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Speaker 14: it clear that we're prepared to respond in defense of Israel,

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Speaker 14: and it would have wide ranging consequences for a variety

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Speaker 14: of parties that are not directly involved in the conflict,

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Speaker 14: particularly in Asia.

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Speaker 1: Right when you look at these severity of the initial

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Speaker 1: attacks and taking six month old babies as hostages, and

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Speaker 1: taking away elderly people in wheelchairs and and and making

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Speaker 1: them hostages. Israel has already said there's there's no time

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Speaker 1: for negotiation at this point. No, Uh, is that almost

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Speaker 1: a guarantee that this does escalate?

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Speaker 14: Well, it's certainly going to go beyond where it is now.

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Speaker 14: Right now, what we've seen is Israel taking action against

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Speaker 14: targets in Gaza to degrade Hamasa's commands and control UH,

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Speaker 14: disrupt their you know, communications, there's logistics, pipelines and that

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Speaker 14: sort of stuff. They've sealed off the Gaza strip. They've

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Speaker 14: they've blocked the border crossing in Rafa so AID can't

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Speaker 14: get in UH. And this is all a prelude, mind you,

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Speaker 14: to a ground invasion of Gaza. It's it's noteworthy that Israel,

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Speaker 14: in space and I think three days has mobilized over

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Speaker 14: three hundred thousand men and women in uniform, which is

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Speaker 14: a record for even them. So they've got you know,

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Speaker 14: they've got what that's that's three percent of the population

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Speaker 14: under arms. You know, they've got ten million people. They've

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Speaker 14: got two hundred and sixty thousand ready to fight. That's

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Speaker 14: that's a considerable force. They're going to use it. So

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Speaker 14: we're going to see an escalation. The question is it

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Speaker 14: an escalation that is limited in scope, i e. Focused

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Speaker 14: just on Gaza and Hamas, or is it one that

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Speaker 14: is an expanded escalation that includes an attack from Hezbala

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Speaker 14: in the north, which would which would precipitate a massive

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Speaker 14: retaliation from Israel against southern Adina.

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Speaker 15: Adam. The thing is, we just returned to the same

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Speaker 15: playbook of you know, violence begetting violence that's been quiet

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Speaker 15: for a while. You know, what about the root causes

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Speaker 15: of all this as well, when you know we've got

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Speaker 15: a peace process which has been derailed. On top of that,

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Speaker 15: you have essentially an Israel which controls its enclaves the

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Speaker 15: guys are strip where they control water, electricity and the

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Speaker 15: means of life essentially for a population which is approaching

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Speaker 15: what two point two million people living in a narrow

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Speaker 15: area and one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Well,

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Speaker 15: these are things which have to be dealt with longer term.

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Speaker 15: Of course, at the moment it's not going to bet

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Speaker 15: on the table, but in the long term it has

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Speaker 15: to be surely yeah.

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Speaker 14: Oh gosh, no doubt about it. As you say, violence

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Speaker 14: begins violence. You know, I think in looking at a

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Speaker 14: lot of a commentary and hundred tree about this, you

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Speaker 14: know everybody's saying, oh, well, you know, you got to

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Speaker 14: remember what Israel's done to the Palestinians. And you have

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Speaker 14: others who say, look, no, nothing justifies this level of

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Speaker 14: you know, brutality against innocent civilian population that has been

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Speaker 14: said that is the target of the violence. So you know,

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Speaker 14: but it all begs the big question, which is what

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Speaker 14: any reasonable person seems to me would would would have

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Speaker 14: to admit, which is that as long as you have

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Speaker 14: a huge population held captive on their own territory with

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Speaker 14: no prospect for relief, then you're gonna get You're gonna

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Speaker 14: you're gonna have a problem that that festers and irrupts

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Speaker 14: from time to time. And that's what we've seen and

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Speaker 14: this is no different except the scale of the polence.

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Speaker 1: But that's briefly. We don't have Israeli soldiers on the

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Speaker 1: ground in Gaza. Gaza is not occupied in that sense.

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Speaker 1: Does that make it more difficult for Israel to go in?

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Speaker 14: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: But I mean does it make it more difficult to

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Speaker 1: go in when you don't have people there already?

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Speaker 14: Sure? I mean I was at I was in Fallujah,

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Speaker 14: not as a combatant, but I was at the Fallujah

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Speaker 14: after the Marines went in. And that's like not the

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Speaker 14: picnic compared to what these relies are gonna have.

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