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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna just.

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Speaker 3: Mop that action all all right. Here we go from

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Speaker 3: throwing out show spect I'm sitting up to cash to stop.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabak you want to pa and

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Speaker 2: we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, this week's NFL Roundtable.

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Speaker 1: My name's Matt Moore. I'm the NBA senior writer for

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Speaker 1: the Action Network. But Brendan Glasheen decided to get married

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Speaker 1: during football season. Not great, Brendan. He'll be back next week.

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Speaker 1: You can catch me here with you throughout the week.

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Speaker 1: Glad to have you with us for this NFL Roundtable.

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Speaker 1: Joining us this week, I'm An abram Our, Director of Research,

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Speaker 1: the man of one thousand trends and professional better Simon Hunter,

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Speaker 1: star of the Favorites with everyone's favorite, Chad Melman. Simon,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for taking a few minutes away from

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Speaker 1: Chad talking about the Bears, right Thompson for the millionth

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Speaker 1: time and his love for well.

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Speaker 2: You no happy to be here boys talking football?

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's get right into it, guys, give me

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Speaker 1: your biggest Week four takeaway. Obviously a lot of crazy

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Speaker 1: things going on in the league, as we still see

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Speaker 1: the public suffering in against the spread. Evan, what was

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Speaker 1: your biggest Week four takeaway?

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Speaker 3: I don't know if it's necessarily just a week four takeaway,

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Speaker 3: but it's a few things just overall from the season,

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Speaker 3: let's call it so far so tight point spreads, lack

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Speaker 3: of big point spreads, competition being relatively close right now.

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Speaker 3: Through four weeks, Favorites average spread about four point two,

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Speaker 3: which would be the lowest since nineteen eighty two if

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Speaker 3: you count eighty two, which was the strike, not it's

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Speaker 3: the lowest ever through four weeks, so we're just not

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Speaker 3: seeing big spread. So I think that's one kind of

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Speaker 3: takeaway if you're a gambler, just you know, betting every

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Speaker 3: single week. But I think from like an on the

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Speaker 3: field perspective, we saw some better offense this past week.

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Speaker 3: Points were up like one point eight points per game

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Speaker 3: per team, which is noteworthy. You know, pass attempts, completions,

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Speaker 3: everything seemed to tick up a tiny bit. So I

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Speaker 3: think that's one storyline. The other one is just damn

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Speaker 3: how important, And I just wrote this down literally under

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Speaker 3: it coaches, quarterbacks and offensive line. It's just one of

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Speaker 3: them handicapping games every single week and watching just some

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Speaker 3: of these dumb decisions and some of these coaches are

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Speaker 3: making when others don't seem to be making those same

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Speaker 3: dumb decisions. It's just something that is top of mind currently.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting on the quarterbacks front because so many

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Speaker 1: of them saying too, I don't know what's the word

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Speaker 1: suck ass, and so with so many of them being

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Speaker 1: so bad, I kind of feel like there's like an

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Speaker 1: increased premium on good running games. And we saw that

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Speaker 1: first like the couple of first three weeks, and then

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Speaker 1: we four of casting some of the overs start to

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Speaker 1: take over. Some of the offense kind of opened up. Simon,

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Speaker 1: when you look at week four, what's been your biggest

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Speaker 1: takeaway so far? Through this first quarter of the season, I.

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Speaker 4: Would say, to most fans, it kind of finally felt

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Speaker 4: like the NFL was the NFL, right.

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Speaker 2: We actually had some fluid like fluency in offense. Right.

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Speaker 4: These teams just weren't three and out, no rhythm because

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Speaker 4: these referees got blown the dead every play. They kind

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Speaker 4: of let the boys play for the most part in

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Speaker 4: most games I watched, right, they weren't calling that flag

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Speaker 4: on every little thing, which I think the guys on

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Speaker 4: top called down to them and just said, listen, our

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Speaker 4: products suffering. You guys just can't keep ruining these games.

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Speaker 4: It's gonna be sloppy.

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Speaker 2: Right. We talked about them not playing in the preseason.

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Speaker 2: People can deny it all.

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Speaker 4: They want the proofs in the pudding, Like we see

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Speaker 4: these teams just aren't in rhythm for the first two

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Speaker 4: three weeks now. So for me, that's a big takeaway

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Speaker 4: from the football side. For the betting side, it's all

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Speaker 4: about these dogs, Like it's been incredible betting these dogs

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Speaker 4: against the spread, and just how bad the public has

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Speaker 4: been doing where they're just every.

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Speaker 2: Week overreact in two the previous week, right, and I

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Speaker 2: think we'll see this whole week. Right.

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Speaker 4: Everyone's talking about how great jend Daniels is and how

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Speaker 4: amazing this offense is, and everyone's really excited about the

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Speaker 4: streaky quarterback, which he should be getting his flowers. But

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Speaker 4: this is such a week to week league where it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: are the Vikings really the second best team in football?

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Speaker 4: Like ESPN's putting out there no, I don't think any

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Speaker 4: of us think they really are. But that's what we do, right,

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Speaker 4: It's all reactionary. So that that, to me is my

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Speaker 4: biggest tickaway is the public is just be reacting, overreacting

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Speaker 4: to a.

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Speaker 2: Lot of games this year. And yeah, the betters have

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Speaker 2: been finding great value.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, every week. In the group chat I have with

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson and the ringers Rahem Palmer, I asked, Okay,

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Speaker 1: who had the biggest win this week and who had

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Speaker 1: the worst loss, because like that's a great way to

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Speaker 1: find who the public is going to absolutely freak out about.

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Speaker 1: All right, So you mentioned the dogs. Dogs of six

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Speaker 1: plus have absolutely dominated nine and eight straight up and

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Speaker 1: fourteen two and one for a cool eighty seven point

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Speaker 1: five percent through the first four weeks, covering the spread

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Speaker 1: by seven point three points per game. That's the best

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Speaker 1: start since nineteen sixty that's via, you know, Evan, with

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Speaker 1: the trends. Week five, the big dogs are New Orleans,

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Speaker 1: the Giants Arizona. I want you to pick your favorite

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Speaker 1: of those, Evan, what are your thoughts on those big dogs?

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Speaker 3: It just d ain't the Giants? Well, I really got

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Speaker 3: to say, that's just a bad spot with Sea. I

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Speaker 3: know Seattle's on a short week, but we saw Walker

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Speaker 3: get going and kind of Seattle's offense did just fine

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Speaker 3: in the second half, so I would say the Giants

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Speaker 3: are not the pick. So to me, it's New Orleans

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Speaker 3: or Arizona. I would probably lean Arizona. I said it

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Speaker 3: on the podcast Sunday night. I like the seven and

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Speaker 3: a half. It's the biggest spread on the board right now,

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Speaker 3: but I haven't seen updated news. Maybe Simon knows more.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully we get McBride back, and hopefully Arizona's offense looks

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Speaker 3: a little bit better after a down week, So I'll

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Speaker 3: buy the dip back and probably say Arizona, I'll take

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Speaker 3: the hook.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so you said that the Giants are just too gross,

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Speaker 1: So Simon, I fully expect them to be in the

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Speaker 1: Phase five coming up on favorites, considering how disgusting that

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Speaker 1: would be. What's your pick for one of those dogs

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Speaker 1: that you think has a great chance this week.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna keep going after the defending Super Bowl champs,

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs team. I've just been attacking the line against

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Speaker 4: them every week, and you know, obviously it hasn't worked

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Speaker 4: some weeks.

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Speaker 2: Right, a week when I took them.

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Speaker 4: Then every other week I bet against them, and it's

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Speaker 4: a team that just seems to me they're a little lost,

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Speaker 4: trying to find their identity on offense.

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Speaker 2: And this is when you win it.

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Speaker 4: Bet against my homes Like, I'm gonna be terrified to

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Speaker 4: even touch a number against him in the December because

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Speaker 4: by then they're gonna have an identity, They'll have a

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Speaker 4: rhythm to this offense and the defense.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: I think they're going to keep getting better as the

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Speaker 4: season goes along. Right now, I feel like they're still

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Speaker 4: just over valued by public opinion. Now here comes the

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Speaker 4: Saints team, a team off a loss that you know

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Speaker 4: that that was a coin flip game if they would

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Speaker 4: have won that game. What's this spread? Three and a half? Four?

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Speaker 2: Maybe feels like we're getting a free point and a

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Speaker 2: half of value, especially because it's the Chiefs. So no

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Speaker 2: shock or anyone.

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Speaker 4: I talked to a bookmaker yesterday. It's the number one

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Speaker 4: TIS team right now is the Chiefs. Right, everyone's just

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Speaker 4: gonna have them in the teaser. They're four and oh

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Speaker 4: that's they're just ripe for an upset. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: be taking the Saints on the number and taking a

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Speaker 4: little bit on the money line.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Saints down to minus five and a half in

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Speaker 1: the market, So that's obviously like the pros are coming

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Speaker 1: in and jumping on that as well as the books

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Speaker 1: are protecting against them. So you know eight eight. As

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Speaker 1: a Chiefs fan, I keep looking at these spreads and

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Speaker 1: being like really, like have you watched them? Like have

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Speaker 1: you seen them? Okay? Another big, obviously theme the season

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Speaker 1: is all the rookie quarterbacks. Return of the rookies. Caleb

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Speaker 1: had a decent week with a good efficiency and a

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Speaker 1: win that I'm gonna be mad about until the end

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Speaker 1: of the season. Jayden absolutely on fire, looks like not

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Speaker 1: just an offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, but like

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Speaker 1: an MVP candidate with how he started. And there's Bonnicks

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Speaker 1: who had negative fing yards at the half. This is

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Speaker 1: like the Godzilla meme or the one of the three

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Speaker 1: headed dragon where two of them look very serious and

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Speaker 1: the other one's very dorpe. Yeah, bo Nicks is the Dirpe. There.

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Speaker 1: Pick one to back or fade evan of those three

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Speaker 1: is favorites, Which one do you want to go against?

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Speaker 3: I'm just I'm not going to back them because all

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Speaker 3: three rookies won last week and now they're all favorites

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Speaker 3: this week. It's just that that's not my appetite. That's

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Speaker 3: not how I go to dinner. That's not how I eat,

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Speaker 3: That's not what I do. So Carolina was the one

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Speaker 3: I went for. I need over four, But I just

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Speaker 3: feel like the difference between Dalton and Young and what

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Speaker 3: he's brought to the offense. He scored like sixty points

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Speaker 3: in their last two games. Bryce scored that over like

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Speaker 3: the previous ten game stretcher, so eight game stretch. It's

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Speaker 3: just a completely different team. Chicago's still trying to figure

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Speaker 3: things out. I just think they're gonna score points. Even

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Speaker 3: though Chicago's defense fifteen epa per play. They were even

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Speaker 3: fifteen epa per play week nine on when they got

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Speaker 3: sweat last year, so super consistent. But I'll just take

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Speaker 3: the four or four and a half of Carolina.

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Speaker 1: I want. That's not how I go to dinner. As

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Speaker 1: a drop, I want that, Evan Abrams, That's not how

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Speaker 1: I go to dinner. I want that on a social graphic.

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Speaker 1: That's pretty awesome. I like that, all right, Simon, of

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Speaker 1: these choices, which one do you want to go against?

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Speaker 1: You kind of hinted at it, but which one do

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Speaker 1: you want to go against?

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Speaker 4: I'm actually I'm shockingly going to go against bow Knicks.

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Speaker 4: And have you talked about a little bit though how

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Speaker 4: important coaching has been this season? And you know, obviously

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Speaker 4: bo Nicks won that game against the Jets, right, He's

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Speaker 4: the guy that handled the ball. But that was incredible

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Speaker 4: coaching masterpiece by Sean Payton, Like he just he just

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Speaker 4: threw out the playbook and was like, all right, we

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Speaker 4: have three plays at work. I'm going to randomly sprinkle

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Speaker 4: them in. We'll just pick up you know, five ten

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Speaker 4: yards here at a time if we're possible, and maybe

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Speaker 4: get a field goal and get out of here and

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Speaker 4: win this game.

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Speaker 2: And it worked, right. A lot of things broke from

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Speaker 2: that way.

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Speaker 4: But I think the markets are reacted to it too much, right,

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Speaker 4: the fact that they're minus two.

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Speaker 2: And a half now at home in a divisional game.

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Speaker 2: Evan knows.

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Speaker 4: I'm obsessed with the number two, the point spread. I

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Speaker 4: just think it's such a key important number. How many

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Speaker 4: weeks have we've seen it land on too?

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Speaker 1: Now?

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Speaker 2: Even last week that's Saints Atlanta game, it landed right onto.

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Speaker 2: It's just such an.

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Speaker 4: Important number now, so the fact that the Raiders are

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Speaker 4: up to two and a half, I had to take it.

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Speaker 4: I just I'm a sucker for this team, and I'm

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Speaker 4: hoping when Max Crosby gets cleared or gets you know,

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Speaker 4: he's all good for this game. Maybe this summer does

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Speaker 4: move back down to one and a half and I

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Speaker 4: do have a good value here. But my biggest over

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Speaker 4: reaction's got to be this toe Nicks line. I just

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Speaker 4: I can't believe he's almost a three point favorite at home.

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to like restrain myself because obviously not a

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Speaker 1: big Broncos fan, being a chief fan. Living in that said,

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Speaker 1: I'm offended that this guy with negative yards at half

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Speaker 1: is a two and a half point favorite at home. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned it was a great master class by Sean Payton.

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Speaker 1: The best thing I thought that he did in that

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Speaker 1: game was that he had Robert Sala be the dumbest

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Speaker 1: human on the planet. Like that was just a masterclass

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Speaker 1: of having Robert Sala being completely unfit to coach a

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Speaker 1: football team. On the other side, in terms of the good,

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Speaker 1: the NFC is red hot right now and it's really

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Speaker 1: impressive to watch so many fun story Washington is twelve

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Speaker 1: to one, Minnesota ten to one, Tampa Bay three to one,

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Speaker 1: Seattle eight to one lead the way in the NFC.

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Speaker 1: Pick the one that you think has some staying power.

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Speaker 1: I'm really interested on this question because I always think

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Speaker 1: of how long the NFL season is now with seventeen weeks,

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Speaker 1: and I'm always like, is this the best that you're

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Speaker 1: gonna play? Evan? Which of these do you think does

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Speaker 1: have some staying power?

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Speaker 3: And also, just to be clear, those prices matches said

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Speaker 3: those were the division I didn't even write this in

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Speaker 3: the script. Those are the division prices for those teams

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Speaker 3: for preseason, so those are how long they were to

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Speaker 3: even win it, which is crazy itself. So Washington twelve,

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Speaker 3: Minnesota ten, ten, Bay three, Seattle eight. My answer is

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Speaker 3: I could probably make the case for anyone but Minnesota

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Speaker 3: kind of at this point. I know everyone's going to

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Speaker 3: crown them, but the rest of their division to me

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Speaker 3: is just so difficult that I could see them not

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Speaker 3: winning it more than they can at this point, even

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Speaker 3: though they are undefeated. Washington is the fourth easiest remaining schedule.

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Speaker 3: I know it's even crazy to say, but I would

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Speaker 3: probably lean Washington or Seattle. That would probably be my answer,

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Speaker 3: because I do believe that San Francisco has some cracks

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Speaker 3: in the system. I do think they're getting a little

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Speaker 3: long on the tooth. You're seeing it in a bunch

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Speaker 3: of different ways. Now, I didn't really expect Jordan Mason

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Speaker 3: to kind of look like Christian McCaffrey anyway, which is

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Speaker 3: definitely helping out their offense at this point. But I

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Speaker 3: think Seattle's dangerous. I know a bunch of us were

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Speaker 3: on them in the preseason, and I think even at

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Speaker 3: this point, seeing how they stayed in that Detroit onslaught

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Speaker 3: last night for at least a little while coming back

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Speaker 3: in the second half kind of proved a little bit

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Speaker 3: of something to me. So Washington or Seattle, that's my answer.

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Speaker 1: Great stuff there, signon your thoughts. I'm hoping you're gonna

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Speaker 1: say Buccaneers because I'm not the only human on the

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Speaker 1: planet to have their division.

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Speaker 4: I can't with the Bucks because I can't figure out

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Speaker 4: that division at all. I just it's so weak to

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Speaker 4: week It's like I don't know what I'm going to get.

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Speaker 4: All I know is at the end it's going to

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Speaker 4: come down to like those last two weeks, right, just

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Speaker 4: out of the NFL once. So there's a reason the

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Speaker 4: NFL stacks, you know, most teams, they stacked three divisional

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Speaker 4: games and the season, and that's gonna be the.

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Speaker 2: Case in the AFC NFC South.

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Speaker 4: It's just you know, any given Sunday, right, whoever stays

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Speaker 4: healthy too, that's gonna be the key to that division

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Speaker 4: where it's like all those teams, those three teams are

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Speaker 4: so top heavy, where you know, if Mike Evans goes down,

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Speaker 4: that's gonna be a huge deal to the Bucks. If

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Speaker 4: Drake London goes down, that's gonna be huge deal to Atlanta.

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Speaker 4: So those teams are also dependent on their top guys

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Speaker 4: that I'm gonna agree with Evan though, Washington.

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Speaker 2: To me, that feels like the vet right now.

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Speaker 4: I know it's just as good as Eagles can get

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Speaker 4: as the season goes along. And same with Dallas. There

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Speaker 4: are questions there across the board where those teams like

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Speaker 4: you know that questions coming in Well, Washington, all of

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Speaker 4: our questions about them have.

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Speaker 2: Kind of been answered, right.

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Speaker 4: We know they have a terrible defense, but it's all

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Speaker 4: about Jade and Daniels in that offense. If he's comfortable,

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Speaker 4: if he's playing like a five year vet. That's what

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Speaker 4: he looks like right now. He looks like I got

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Speaker 4: who's been in the league a long time. He's cool, calm,

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Speaker 4: collective in the pocket. I mean even even their third

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Speaker 4: down play calling is just so smart with him in

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Speaker 4: mind of Okay, we know they're coming after us, we

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Speaker 4: don't have a good offensive line, but I don't want

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Speaker 4: him running the ball. So Cliff just dowlls it uphre.

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Speaker 4: He's just making quick outpasses right, and he's accurate with it.

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Speaker 4: So everything I've seen from Daniel's it's like, of all

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Speaker 4: the things that can carry on throughout the season, I

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Speaker 4: could see this offense going throughout the season with Washington,

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Speaker 4: And you know this sounds crazy, but this is a

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Speaker 4: division that if you're ten and seven, I think you

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Speaker 4: could probably win it, right. I think the Eagles and

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Speaker 4: with Dallas with their injuries right now on both sides,

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Speaker 4: they could drop a couple of games here early in

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Speaker 4: the season that it's gonna be tough to make up

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Speaker 4: as the season goes along. So yeah, the shaker would

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Speaker 4: to me would be Washington. But you know there's gonna

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Speaker 4: be people out there just like this guy. Just hates

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Speaker 4: the Vikings because I did. Coming into the year, I

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Speaker 4: just would not believe in Sam Darnold. I think I

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Speaker 4: haven't talked about it where it's just like that divisions.

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Speaker 2: That was my biggest reason for not liking this Vikings team.

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Speaker 4: Just when I looked at the division, I was like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: at best, at best everything goes right, they can probably

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Speaker 4: get third.

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Speaker 2: That to me was the top.

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Speaker 4: Now it's like, oh my god, is this team just

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Speaker 4: an absolute jugger or not? Like defensively, when their offense

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Speaker 4: doesn't have it, their defense shows up. When the offense

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Speaker 4: is like, you know, rolling, they look incredible. But you

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Speaker 4: have to think because the season goes a longer and

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Speaker 4: they get more tape on Sam Darnold, they'll go to

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Speaker 4: attack them better. So they're just a team I'm still

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Speaker 4: hesitant about, just because it's just been so overwhelming right now.

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Speaker 4: Right I just think it's it really is peak ceiling.

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Speaker 4: Like everyone it loves the Vikings right now. So it's

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Speaker 4: just a team I'm usually wary of because we talk

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Speaker 4: all the time if you win, and you know, if

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Speaker 4: you're the best team in September, it literally means nothing

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Speaker 4: in football, Like I mean the Chiefs. Are they ever

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Speaker 4: the best team in September? Now they're always the best

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Speaker 4: team in December and January. So I think that's that's

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Speaker 4: the fear right now with the Vikingss. Just it's been

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Speaker 4: so incredible early on here. Eventually it's gonna go the

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Speaker 4: other way, just because that's how football is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely tailed you on all of that Viking

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Speaker 1: stuff because the cap was really good, Like, the cap

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Speaker 1: was really good on it. I'm not even mad. It

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Speaker 1: was really good. And this is a really fun story.

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Speaker 1: As Brandon Anderson, you know, are you believing in darn Omania?

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Speaker 1: And he, predictably because he's always a sour pust, was like, no,

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Speaker 1: they're going to come back to earth. So oh, one

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Speaker 1: more news. It's not gonna happen. Do not bet this.

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Speaker 1: But if the Commanders were to pull off one of

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Speaker 1: the most shocking seasons in NFL history and win the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback, now just let hear

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Speaker 1: me out. What I am gonna do is I'm going

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Speaker 1: to get a picture of Cliff Kingsbury celebrating that a

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00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:27,960
Speaker 1: giant poster and send it to Matt Mitchell's house. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be amazing, like I'm just gonna have it roll

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Speaker 1: up in front of Cliff Kingsbury celebrating the Super Bowl championship.

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Speaker 1: All right, next question, Evan, You've bet a team minus

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Speaker 1: three and a half and you're up eight two minutes left. Okay,

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Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite, You're up eight, two

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Speaker 1: minutes left, the other team has the ball, no timeouts.

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Speaker 1: Pick the quarterback you would want to face on the

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Speaker 1: other side, any semi starting quarterback in the NFL currently.

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Speaker 3: This was kind of easy for me, and it's kind

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Speaker 3: of the reason I set up the question because it's

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Speaker 3: just kind of fun. But Tim Boyle is my answer.

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Speaker 3: He's been absolutely terrible, and even in the short time

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Speaker 3: we've seen him, I don't actually think he's a current

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00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,119
Speaker 3: quarterback in the NFL, but he has played. So that

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Speaker 3: is my answer. Lowest success right last two years of

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Speaker 3: any QB. He is under a six average at the target,

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Speaker 3: he's over minus six percent on completion percentage over expected,

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Speaker 3: he's only five as a starter. There's just so much

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Speaker 3: to work with here. So that is my answer for

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Speaker 3: worst quarterback on the other side of my winning bet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you could just go ahead and turn the TV

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Speaker 1: off and just head on out the door whistling counting

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Speaker 1: your money there. Simon, what's the one quarterback you want

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Speaker 1: to face? If you're betting mins three and a half

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Speaker 1: and you're up eight with two minutes left.

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Speaker 2: I would say, have the thirty two starters. It's going

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Speaker 2: to be Will Levis. I just can't get over how

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Speaker 2: bad this kid is.

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Speaker 4: And if you had that under last night on that

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Speaker 4: Miami Tennessee game, as soon as he went out, I go,

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Speaker 4: that's this BET's debt. They're going to hit this over now,

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Speaker 4: just because they have someone that's capable of completing third

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Speaker 4: down passes in Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: So that was a brutal beat.

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Speaker 4: There's gona be bad karma coming back to Tennessee. That

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Speaker 4: was an insane running the ball and fourth four square

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Speaker 4: I touchdown was just mental. So yeah, for me, I

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Speaker 4: was heavy on fading Tennessee coming to the season because

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Speaker 4: I just did.

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Speaker 2: Not believe in Will Levis. And all I can hope

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Speaker 2: is he stays healthy enough to play.

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Speaker 4: The whole season so they can be the worst team

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Speaker 4: in football. So yeah, Will Levis, to me, he is

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Speaker 4: just an auto fade the rest of the year.

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Speaker 3: You know what's funny, I do have to say this.

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Speaker 3: The person I wanted to say who actually might be

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Speaker 3: the right answer to me at least is Russ if

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Speaker 3: he was playing quarterback based off of what we've seen

436
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 3: and an old Russ, like a small guy like him,

437
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,879
Speaker 3: trying to play quarterback in this system and trying to

438
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 3: run around without being able to run around. He's terrible.

439
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 1: But I would have said that Will Levis is the

440
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:39,879
Speaker 1: one that I want if I had minus nine and

441
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 1: a half and you're up eight and they have the all,

442
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 1: because he's just gonna make the single worst decision possible

443
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:50,640
Speaker 1: every time. His turnovers are not like, oh man, that's

444
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 1: a really bad turnover. It's like, that is the single

445
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 1: most catastrophic thing you could possibly do. That is the

446
00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:00,040
Speaker 1: hugest swing and win probability on a single play. On

447
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 1: the other side of this, the odds to win MVP

448
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 1: right now Mahalmes plus two to forty, because apparently interceptions

449
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 1: just don't matter anymore. Allen plus two to sixty. Stroud

450
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: ten to one, Sam Donald, Mania at ten to one,

451
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson repeat winner eleven to one. Who's a player

452
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 1: a bit outside of the range that you think will

453
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 1: be top five at some point in the season, A

454
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:24,640
Speaker 1: good old CLV sandwich here.

455
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, So we had kind of had this same discussion

456
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,440
Speaker 3: on I think it was Defensive Rookie of the Year

457
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,200
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago, when like the field was kind

458
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 3: of all open and you wanted to try to find

459
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 3: somebody really high. I think to answer this question for

460
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,919
Speaker 3: MVP right now, I wanted to say, either Goff at

461
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 3: twenty five to one, but his schedule gets a little

462
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 3: bit shake here over the next few weeks, even though

463
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:47,160
Speaker 3: we know the stat about him indoors, it's like one

464
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 3: game through week sixteen or so, so he's probably gonna

465
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 3: get shorter at some point. The other one I thought

466
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 3: that was interesting was Burrow. If you actually just look

467
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:55,879
Speaker 3: at the numbers, and he's been absurd this year. I

468
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 3: think it's seven touchdowns, just one interception, and he's been

469
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: really good in Cincinnati points even though his record he's

470
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 3: at thirty to one, but a little bit of the

471
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,880
Speaker 3: risk issues the two I think that are just fun.

472
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 3: Dereck Henry's like two hundred and fifty to one right

473
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 3: now at some books. So if he continues on this

474
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 3: and Baltimore keeps feeding him the ball and maybe there's

475
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 3: not and you know, Josh drops some games, Mahomes keeps

476
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 3: looking this way. You know, Stroud zero and four against

477
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 3: the spread, even though it doesn't matter in this conversation,

478
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 3: it's just maybe there's just a shake up a little

479
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,159
Speaker 3: bit there. So Henry at two hundred and fifty to one,

480
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 3: and then Justin Fields is ondred one hundred and fifty

481
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 3: to one depending on the book right now, if Pittsburgh

482
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,959
Speaker 3: keeps winning, if he keeps running, if he racks up touchdowns,

483
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 3: it's those. Those are the two I looked at other

484
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 3: than the Goffin burrough Man.

485
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 1: What a narrative swing Fields would have. Yes, going from

486
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: Bears outcast to MVP, that'd be also very Bears, just

487
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:55,439
Speaker 1: painfully Bears in that situation. Simon your pick, I'm right

488
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: there with Evan.

489
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 4: I took a position on Joe Burrow just because I

490
00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 4: like the Bengals this week to pull the upset off

491
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 4: against the Ravens. I just think if he has a

492
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 4: game where he balls out against the Ravens, he'll be

493
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 4: back in the top three. So that's just kind of

494
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 4: a little play on me liking them this week and

495
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 4: also liking the value on Joe because it's not his fault.

496
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 4: They've been bad this year, and I think he'll continue

497
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 4: putting up really good numbers just because their defense is

498
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,479
Speaker 4: so bad. So that that was a great pick by

499
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,880
Speaker 4: Evan there for my long shot, I got a homer pick.

500
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 2: It's gonna be hurts.

501
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 4: I just think this is gonna be a nice spot

502
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 4: with the bye week. He's gonna come back, hopefully, Lane

503
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 4: Johnson's back, hopefully, Devonte Snetz back, in AJ's back, He's

504
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 4: got all his weapons. It's gonna be a big deal

505
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 4: in their schedule. If you look at it, it's it's

506
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 4: just easy. Like you're telling me, Washington now is a

507
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 4: hard game on their schedule. Yeah, maybe offensively, their defense

508
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 4: is still not that good. So it's like there's gonna

509
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 4: be there's gonna be a lot of time for her

510
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 4: to put up some good numbers and if they could

511
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 4: turn their season around, I could see him being up

512
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 4: for the MVP discussion. But to me, the safest bet,

513
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 4: the smartest bet, it's Joe Burrow. It just lines up

514
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 4: for with him for the rest of the year, where

515
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 4: it's like, guy puts up numbers, he's smart with the ball,

516
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 4: has all his weapons, and he's in a division that

517
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 4: if he wins after starting the year zero to three,

518
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 4: how do you not give him the award?

519
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 2: Right, especially with all these other deals. So I like

520
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 2: that play a lot.

521
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: I mean, and unlike Mahomes and Allen at the top,

522
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 1: Burrows weapons are so good at making plays for him

523
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 1: like Jamar Chase had some absolutely absurd yack stuff like

524
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 1: it was nuts last week, the kind of moves that

525
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 1: he put on in the open field. I'm talking to

526
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson on Friday for his best bets. So if

527
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 1: you want another answer to this, I'll just go ahead

528
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 1: and spoil that for it'sn be Aaron Rodgers for the

529
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,440
Speaker 1: seven hundredth time as he goes back to the well.

530
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: All right, most passing touchdowns allowed in this season. Washington

531
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 1: at tend no surprise Carolina at nine. This week they

532
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 1: faced Deshaun Watson and Caleb Williams. Which quarterback, Watson or

533
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 1: Caleb do you like better? For over one and a

534
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: half passing touchdowns? Evan, I love this question. This is

535
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 1: the extremely movable object versus the completely resistible force.

536
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: Love it.

537
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, That's why I had to ask it, because

538
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 3: it felt like it was impossible one way or the other.

539
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 3: I went with Caleb. I just think even though I

540
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 3: liked Carolina in that game at the four, I could

541
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 3: see points. Carolina's games are going to be point heavy,

542
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 3: as it was against Cincinnati. I think Caleb gets a

543
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: little bit back on track here, especially, you know Keenan

544
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 3: Keenan Allen back another week, get a little more in

545
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 3: rhythm with some of your receivers. He's just looked so

546
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 3: I want to call it like he's just a dog

547
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 3: running circles in the pocket, because like he feels like

548
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 3: he just gets so shaky so quickly. But I think

549
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 3: that'll get easier and better over time. Even though the

550
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 3: system and Ebraflus and Waldron and everyone aren't going to

551
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,360
Speaker 3: help him out, I think he'll get a little better.

552
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 3: I'll take Caleb all.

553
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 1: Right, Simon, which of those two wonderful options d want?

554
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hate him both, so I'll just take the

555
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 2: other side. To have some talking points. I'll go Watson.

556
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:56,880
Speaker 2: Just it's I didn't hit from me last week.

557
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 4: I've just been fading this commander's defense and player props

558
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 4: for quarterbacks, and I'll feeling pretty good.

559
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 2: And Kyle Murray drove the field first drive, threw a touchdown,

560
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 2: then did not throw another touchdown the rest of the game.

561
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 4: So that was a brutal, bad beat. But Sam goes

562
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 4: here for Watson. I think you know Nick Chubb supposed

563
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:14,639
Speaker 4: to be back this week. I know they're gonna use

564
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 4: him as a decoy. He just we've seen timetime again,

565
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 4: these guys come back from these injuries, especially when they're

566
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 4: rushing back. He's not gonna be the total player he's

567
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 4: used to being, so you can just use him as

568
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 4: a decoy. So to me, there's there's a couple of

569
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 4: ways that they Cleveland can use him. Get Watson more

570
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 4: freed out, you know, hopefully go over the one and

571
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 4: a half. It has to be a plus number, right,

572
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 4: I mean, he's just been brutal this season, so I was.

573
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 3: Assuming both numbers were plus. But I don't think they're

574
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 3: out yet.

575
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 4: I mean, you're right, Commander's defense is that bad despite

576
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 4: what they did last week. So yeah, I'll swallow this

577
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 4: one and I'll just take Watson over one and.

578
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 2: A half touchdowns?

579
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: Can I take Jameis Winston more touchdown passes than Deshaun Watson?

580
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 1: Can I just take that? That's what I would prefer

581
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 1: to do. All Right, We're gonna have you guys pick

582
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,399
Speaker 1: a touchdown scorer this week from this list of players

583
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 1: who have not scored a touchdo down yet this season.

584
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 1: Jackson smith In, Jigba brock Bauers, George Pickens, Tyler Lockett,

585
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: Michael Pittman, Jalen Wattle, Travis Kelcey, Brandon Ayuk and Sam

586
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 1: Laporta Evan Which one of those is going to get

587
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 1: into the end zone?

588
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 3: I picked Kelsey Monday Night football. They have no targets left.

589
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: They're facing the Saints defense that he isn't exactly fantastic,

590
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 3: and certain points in the secondary. I think that there's

591
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 3: just no targets left. He's had a terrible, terrible start

592
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 3: to the season. It's the right atmosphere in a primetime

593
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 3: game where he probably finds the end zone. I'll go

594
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 3: with Kelsey.

595
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: Okay, I think the big question there they need to

596
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 1: wait on. You know, there's these like late in the season,

597
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 1: you want to look for weather and those kind of things. Yeah,

598
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 1: the biggest thing that you really want to watch out

599
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 1: here is weather. Taylor is in the building. That's really

600
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: what you want to that's fair to look.

601
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 3: Well, So she hasn't been there in the last two weeks,

602
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 3: and perfect timing Monday Night, she'll she'll be there.

603
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 1: She'll be there, all right, Simon, your pick.

604
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 2: Gotta go with my man, brock Bauer. He's just been unlucky.

605
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 4: Him and San Laporter had both been tackled at the

606
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 4: one of the two yard line twice this season, So

607
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 4: just playing the odds here, they're eventually gonna score, and

608
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Brock in this game just to

609
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 4: matchup wise. Hopefully Demonde Adams is out again for the

610
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 4: I mean, as a better I hope he plays, but

611
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 4: as someone that's betting, gonna bet brock Bower score anytime touchdown.

612
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 4: Just got to get him to touches down the red zone,

613
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 4: and the coaches talked about it last week. They're gonna

614
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 4: try to design more plays for him. I saw twice

615
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 4: last week he either had a carry on the back

616
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 4: which was pretty crazy, and they had another play where

617
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:33,880
Speaker 4: he was a full back and then called the ball

618
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 4: the backfield. So I love how they're just moving around

619
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 4: all over the place, this Raiders team. So yeah, give

620
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 4: me brock Bauers finally break it get any time touchdown.

621
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 3: We both took tight ends. I mean, tight ends have

622
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 3: to break through at some point. Maybe it's not maybe

623
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,719
Speaker 3: maybe we're waiting for like tight end Week, which happens

624
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 3: at some point during the season, but it has to

625
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 3: happen at some point.

626
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 1: Can't go over the top for wide receivers because of

627
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 1: the two deep safeties can't go to the tight ends.

628
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 1: They can't get in the end zone out there for

629
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 1: those offenses. All right, big game of the week bills

630
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: off an embarrassing loss on Sunday Night where the Ravens

631
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 1: just ran the ball down their throat. The Texans are

632
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 1: zero and four against the spread, the tickets are tight.

633
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: Pick a side on this one, Evan.

634
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's actually funny. So literally about an hour

635
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 3: ago it flipped. It was Houston minus one. Now it's

636
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 3: Buffalo minus one. So market rolling all over the place,

637
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 3: kind of going back and forth. I'll go to Texans.

638
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 3: I think I want to see the injury report later

639
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 3: in the week, but just an early gut side pick.

640
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 3: I'll go against Josh Allen. I wasn't being on Buffalo

641
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 3: in the preseason. They started out electric and fantastic. I

642
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 3: assume everyone's going to be on them this week off

643
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 3: of the loss, especially because Houston kind of got lucky

644
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 3: against Jacksonville. So I believe Buffalo will close one and

645
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 3: a half. Is she'll move that direction, people want to

646
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 3: back him off the loss, I'll do the opposite. I'll

647
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 3: take Houston.

648
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: The first thing I thought of was that trend. I

649
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 1: know you're going to spot on the favorite. It's about

650
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 1: teams that go from dogs to favorites. I know that,

651
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 1: like that was the first thing that came into my mind.

652
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 3: It's like seventy one one hundred or so.

653
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's like the first thing that came into

654
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: my mind. On the other side of this, though, home

655
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: teams have been dogshit, so that scares me here too,

656
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 1: So I'm terrified here. Simon helped me out. If you're

657
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 1: gonna pick a side here, what do you like?

658
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, everyone check out the favorites. On Sunday nights. We

659
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 4: gave out the Bills plus two before they played the Ravens,

660
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 4: just in case they blew out the Ravens.

661
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 2: It went the other way.

662
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,959
Speaker 4: They got blown out, and the number has moved three points.

663
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 4: I think it says more about Houston, right Houston, here's

664
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 4: three and one right now with a minus fifteen in

665
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 4: point differential. It's just a team that they've won really

666
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 4: close games and then they got rolled when they played,

667
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 4: you know, a pretty tough defense in this Fike in

668
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 4: the Vikings, So.

669
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 2: I expect it to be a bounced back spot. But

670
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 2: I'm with Evan, like the movement. It's it's moved three

671
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 2: points now, and.

672
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 4: It's like, okay, let me maybe dive into the numbers

673
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 4: more and see what the health is of Joe Mixon

674
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 4: because they just have not looked at same offens leave

675
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 4: since he's been out. But man, that is a lot

676
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 4: of respect to give this Bills team. Clearly the professionals

677
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 4: think they are the right side here, and they've come

678
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 4: in very heavy here because that's a really big movement

679
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 4: to move at three points in just two days after

680
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 4: a team got blown out. So yeah, I wanted to

681
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 4: be on the Bills, but Evan's right now, this number

682
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 4: is going to move so much. I'm probably gonna have

683
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 4: to take the undervaluy team here in Houston, especially if

684
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 4: this number gets to two. I mean, people know once

685
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 4: again how much I love the number two. It's like, Okay,

686
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 4: a team that's owned four against the spread, now the

687
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 4: number has moved five four points, I'm gonna end up

688
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 4: on Houston there. So I'll just keep waiting. I'm not

689
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 4: gonna bet it yet, but if that number keeps going up,

690
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 4: I'll definitely go on Houston's side.

691
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 1: Simon, this is probably a stupid question which will make

692
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: it good for those listening that don't know any better.

693
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: Is this a spot where you would maybe look to

694
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 1: then tease Houston the other way and you'd have a

695
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,959
Speaker 1: pretty substantial middle there on this position.

696
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 4: No, because again I don't like talking money the favorites,

697
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 4: because I know, like you know, most people listen to

698
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 4: our showing beut fifty bucks at that time, but unfortune

699
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 4: and I bet Sunday nights the most I can get

700
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 4: down the most is a thousand bucks. That's the most

701
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 4: I can get down on that number. I if I

702
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 4: like a side, I might have thirty forty.

703
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 2: Times that amount on that side comes Sunday.

704
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 4: So it's like, as much I want to be like, yeah,

705
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 4: I'll hit this nice middle, it's not really like that.

706
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 4: It's it's more like, okay, I loved my early position.

707
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 4: Maybe I'll go on the other side for the moves

708
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 4: enough and that'll be my new position.

709
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 2: But yeah, like right now I.

710
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 4: Think I'm I probably have like four thousand, say on

711
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 4: the bills, and I have zero dollars on Houston. You

712
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 4: nailed it, though, if this gets up to two, You're right,

713
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 4: I could easily just take take.

714
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 2: A break from that game because I don't have a

715
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 2: great read on it.

716
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 4: Put a thousand or another thousand on a teaser, get

717
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 4: it up to eight, and it's like, Okay, that's a

718
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 4: nice middle position.

719
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 2: So that is something I could do with that game.

720
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 4: But if I really end up liking Houston and Evan

721
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 4: gives me some amazing trends that really want to back Houston, no,

722
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 4: I'll just I'll hammer that one out. And it's like, yeah,

723
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 4: that's that's as it's a dead ticket my earlier bet

724
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 4: in the week.

725
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 2: But that's just how it works though, right we do

726
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 2: that Sunday NHL.

727
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: I'm just looking for value and how I think the

728
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 4: pros are going to move the numbers throughout the week,

729
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 4: so it doesn't always line up that way. But uh

730
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 4: that to me again, it's one of the more bizarre

731
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 4: movements of the week. I just can't believe it's moved

732
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 4: three points. It must there must be something I'm missing

733
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 4: you with Houston that the professionals are really hammering the

734
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 4: toils team.

735
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 1: I'm just jealous because an NBA I can't tease anything ever,

736
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 1: and it sucks.

737
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 2: Yeah you don't want to tease an NBA though, No, he.

738
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 1: Can't do it ever, and it sucks. The thing with

739
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: the Texans. I keep noticing, like I feel like they're better,

740
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: Brandon Anston feels that they're worse than maybe like market average.

741
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 1: And my kind of explanation, I think is that I

742
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 1: pay a lot of attention to like high leverage throws,

743
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 1: like those key moments in the game, and it seems

744
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 1: like Stroud is like not great a lot of the time,

745
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: and it's like he really needs to convert this third

746
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 1: down and he pulls something out that's just absolutely awesome,

747
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: and that I think is influencing me quite a bit.

748
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 4: Bar is just so high though, I think you're just

749
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 4: like the general public right where he because he's did

750
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 4: so well his first year.

751
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: Yep, we put the expectations so high.

752
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 4: Then you're like, okay, and you've got digs now in

753
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 4: this offense, like there should be no excuse.

754
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 2: But you're right. It's like year two. It ain't gonna

755
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 2: get any easier.

756
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 4: They got a ton of film on. They're going to

757
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 4: make it tougher for him. You've seen it here early

758
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 4: on the defenses. You're taking away a lot of things

759
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 4: he likes to do.

760
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, So based off of that, tren bon Nix will

761
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:24,239
Speaker 1: throw for negative five hundred yards next season. All right,

762
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: last morn before we get out of here, what would

763
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: you set a Lions commander's total at? Right now? Lions

764
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 1: offense gets right in a big way versus a tough

765
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 1: defense on Monday night football commanders rolling, All right, Evan,

766
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 1: what's the total you would set Lions commanders at the.

767
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 3: Only issue with trying to go so high, here's Detroit's

768
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 3: defense is like a little okay, like you know, they're

769
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 3: pass rush. There's a few things that aren't absolutely terrible.

770
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 3: I was laughing as a joke of eighty seven, but

771
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 3: I would probably say, like fifty four fifty three range.

772
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 3: I don't know, what do you think?

773
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 2: I'm yeah, that feels right. I mean, you know how

774
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 2: much it's just tough for me to get above fifteen.

775
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 4: Now, the way the league is with these two teams

776
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 4: right now, how they're playing, it definitely warrants it.

777
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 2: So I would definitely be at the fifty two to

778
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 2: fifty three mark.

779
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 4: There's such those are such key numbers that once you

780
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,320
Speaker 4: get up to that point, the public might, if this

781
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 4: was out there, probably bet up to fifty four.

782
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 3: And that's when I'd come in on the under. So

783
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,240
Speaker 3: this isn't Chiefs Ravens. No, I'm not in Chiefs Rams

784
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen or whatever you know this is. This is

785
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 3: a bit of a different scenario, but yeah, fifty three.

786
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 1: I would watch that. I would watch every second of

787
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 1: that game, absolutely every although I thought the same thing

788
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 1: about Cardinals commanders, and then it was just like a

789
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 1: commander's highlight reel.

790
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 3: So you also, if it's if it's in Detroit, it's

791
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 3: definitely higher if it's in Washington's lower right.

792
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, golf indoors man, all right, this gouta do it

793
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 1: for this episode of my thanks to Evan Abraham's director

794
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 1: of research, the man of a thousand trends, Simon Hunter.

795
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 1: You can catch him on The Favorites on Tuesday's Thursdays

796
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: and on the Sunday Reaction Show. Next up is Chris

797
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 1: Raymond and Stucky with their week five NFL betting preview,

798
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: including the Sunday six pack that drops right here on

799
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 1: Thursday morning. Thanks listening to the Action Network podcast. Action

800
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

801
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available

802
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred.

803
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 2: Gambler