WEBVTT - Marc Franklin on the Markets (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get to our guests for this half hour. Mike Franklin.

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<v Speaker 1>He's managing director and senior portfolio manager, A Man Your Life,

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<v Speaker 1>and Mike was seeing a little bit of modest weakness

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<v Speaker 1>on some markets. Today. We've got the Nick in positive Territory.

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<v Speaker 1>You had a very whipstory kind of Dave for the

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<v Speaker 1>US is does that risk really that we saw in

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<v Speaker 1>the past couple of days done? Can you see markets

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<v Speaker 1>holding onto those gains that we saw morning Pool. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that we have to look at what's happened just before.

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<v Speaker 1>We've had the two correction in financial markets across most

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<v Speaker 1>asset classes. We got to points at the start of

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<v Speaker 1>this week where markets were oversold technically in position for

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<v Speaker 1>some kind of bounce. And over the last few days

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen two or three central banks take measures which

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<v Speaker 1>has got the market somewhat excited. So if you take

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<v Speaker 1>the Reserve Bank of Australia, they only raised interest rates

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<v Speaker 1>by twenty five basis points versus expectations of fifty. The

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<v Speaker 1>Bank of Japhan has started to intervene in the FX market.

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<v Speaker 1>The Bank of England intervened in the long end of

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<v Speaker 1>the guilt's curve, so market participants. Some of them are saying,

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<v Speaker 1>is the FED next? And if the FED is next,

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<v Speaker 1>does that constitute a pivot? And if we see a pivot,

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<v Speaker 1>that would be quite constructive for risk appetite. Premature to

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<v Speaker 1>conclude that the u S data is not giving them

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<v Speaker 1>sufficient room to do that, but coming from oversould conditions,

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<v Speaker 1>it's understandable that there are some market participants that are

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<v Speaker 1>looking to take advantage of that opportunity. Yeah, the key

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<v Speaker 1>question though, is the fit next. We've heard some pretty

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<v Speaker 1>porkers remarks from Mary Daily and Raphael Bostick in the

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<v Speaker 1>past a few hours, and Mary Daily also calling inflation corrosive.

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<v Speaker 1>They're giving no signs of a pivot at the moment,

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<v Speaker 1>are they. We would look at the data on the

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<v Speaker 1>inflation side, on the jobs market side to conclude that

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<v Speaker 1>it is insufficient evidence for the Fed to start to

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<v Speaker 1>talk a more softer tone. So some market participants may

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<v Speaker 1>be disappointed if they don't see a slowing down of

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<v Speaker 1>rate hikes before the end of this year. And indeed,

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at market pricing, it's still the expectation

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<v Speaker 1>that the FED will move seventy five basis points again

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<v Speaker 1>at the next meeting, So the conclusion that we would

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<v Speaker 1>have a manual life is that it's still too early

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<v Speaker 1>to expect a pivot. Yeah, that seventy five basis point

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<v Speaker 1>cut November does seem to be pretty much baked in.

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<v Speaker 1>But what about after that? We've we've got Raphael Bostick saying, well,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to get to four and a half percent

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<v Speaker 1>and then take a little breather. What happens next year? Though,

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<v Speaker 1>it all comes down to what happens to inflation, and

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<v Speaker 1>there the picture becomes a little bit unclear. There are

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<v Speaker 1>certain categories within the inflation complex, such as energy, which

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<v Speaker 1>will show via base effects a slowing down the momentum.

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<v Speaker 1>But on the flip side, there are more persistent or

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<v Speaker 1>stickier categories such as shelter or owner's equivalent rent which

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<v Speaker 1>are showing material upside movement, as well as other categories

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<v Speaker 1>such as medical equipment of medical care. So if you

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<v Speaker 1>fast forward a few months, it's likely that core inflation

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<v Speaker 1>will may have peaked, but it's not going to come

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<v Speaker 1>down at the kind of pace that some market participants

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<v Speaker 1>are hoping for. Um. I want to start ap peeling

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<v Speaker 1>that energy onion in a moment, but just before we

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<v Speaker 1>get to that very quickly. Do you think we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>Pete Dolly yet? Very good question. I mean, ultimately, the

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<v Speaker 1>do that is a reflection of interest rate differentials and

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<v Speaker 1>by extension, inflation and growth differentials. So for the time being,

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<v Speaker 1>the US economy is holding up reasonably well. The consumer

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<v Speaker 1>is still optimistic, and therefore US consumer spending growth is

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<v Speaker 1>still positive. As long as the US economy looks relatively

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<v Speaker 1>robust against other regions, it's hard to call a complete

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<v Speaker 1>top in the dollar. And Marc I said I wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about energy prices. We did, of course get

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<v Speaker 1>the news as expected O Pick plus cutting supply by

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<v Speaker 1>two million barrels per day. But coupled with that, we

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<v Speaker 1>do have the strong dollar that we mentioned where we

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<v Speaker 1>left off. So what are the implications here for emerging

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<v Speaker 1>market economies. You have to split the emerging market economies

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<v Speaker 1>into those that are net produces and exporters of energy

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<v Speaker 1>and those that are net importers of energy. Those that

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<v Speaker 1>are net exporters will actually be quite comforted by the

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<v Speaker 1>decision that I Pick plus two yesterday and an increasingly

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<v Speaker 1>tight physical market, whereas those emerging markets that are energy

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<v Speaker 1>importers will concern themselves with what this means for the

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<v Speaker 1>next round of inflation pressures. Should all prices continue to

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<v Speaker 1>rise in the near term, there's a got more pressure

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<v Speaker 1>on countries like Japan as well. I mean, ultimately they

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<v Speaker 1>have a release valve for that pressure via the currency,

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<v Speaker 1>and they continue to adopt what appears to be a

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<v Speaker 1>very very loose montary policy with air your curve control.

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<v Speaker 1>So the extent to which this drives further weakening of

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<v Speaker 1>the yen against other cross currencies at a pace that

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<v Speaker 1>they're uncomfortable with, it may force them to interview more aggressively. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, the supply cuts just going to stoke energy

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<v Speaker 1>price inflation as well. We do have inflation all over

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<v Speaker 1>the place right now. What is going to happen? First,

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<v Speaker 1>do we get inflation under control or is there going

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<v Speaker 1>to be a global recession? I think we have to

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<v Speaker 1>define what under control means. I mean, ultimately central bank

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<v Speaker 1>inflation targets. If you take the US is a reversion

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<v Speaker 1>towards a two percent inflation rates on the core PC measure.

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<v Speaker 1>It's going to take some time to get there. If

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<v Speaker 1>you look at previous inflationary cycles, it takes several quarters

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<v Speaker 1>rather than several months. To get there, and that perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>creates a sufficiently wide window for growth dynamics to come

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<v Speaker 1>under increasing pressure. Now you're and playing a defense and

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<v Speaker 1>your portfolio, what does that mean exactly? Do you look

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<v Speaker 1>at havens, do you look at bonds? How's your cash

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<v Speaker 1>allocation right now? Yeh, cash allocations are relatively high, and

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<v Speaker 1>we've had to accept that when you see central banks

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<v Speaker 1>so aggressively withdrawal liquidity from financial markets, it affects all

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<v Speaker 1>asset classes, not just those risk assets, but also those

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<v Speaker 1>more defensive assets. Traditionally, and we've seen this year traditionally

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<v Speaker 1>defensive assets such as fixed income have not proven defensive.

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<v Speaker 1>So we've had to appraise the macro environment. And we've

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<v Speaker 1>talked about an environment which is increasingly stagflationary. So which

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<v Speaker 1>types of asset classes performed resiliently in an inflationary environments?

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<v Speaker 1>And energy is one example there, not all commodities necessarily,

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<v Speaker 1>because as you mentioned earlier, the US dollar can pose

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<v Speaker 1>somewhat of a headwinds to other commodity asset classes. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a been a while since we've heard somebody use

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<v Speaker 1>the term stagflation here. Do you have serious concerns about

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<v Speaker 1>global growth? At the moment. The extent to which central

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<v Speaker 1>banks are in a very invidious position makes us concerned

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<v Speaker 1>about the ability which they can restimulate growth anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 1>So we are facing inflationary pressures, and not just at

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<v Speaker 1>the reported level, but also at the core level, so

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<v Speaker 1>inflation dynamics broadening out. They're also under significant pressure to

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<v Speaker 1>effectively call off demand because they are unable to control supply.

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<v Speaker 1>And until those supply situations ease, particularly around physical commodities,

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<v Speaker 1>which they don't look like they're easing anytime soon, then

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<v Speaker 1>it creates a difficult environment for policymakers to try to

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<v Speaker 1>strike a balance between inflation control and supporting growth. We

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<v Speaker 1>were talking about one of our guests last hour as

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<v Speaker 1>well about the risk of earnings recessions. When you cast

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<v Speaker 1>your eye across the SMP and the data as well,

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<v Speaker 1>which companies are looking vulnerable to you at the moment. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we take a more sectoral approach and try

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<v Speaker 1>to identify those sectors that are genuinely speaking quite supported

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of their earnings dynamics in an inflationary dynamics.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you take the utility sector as an example,

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<v Speaker 1>it tends to get costs passed through with its regulated

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<v Speaker 1>price level, so there is a certain degree of defensiveness

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<v Speaker 1>in their earnings trajectory, even when there are cost pressures

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<v Speaker 1>coming from the energy side, and some some companies within

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer staples sector have such strong market positions which

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<v Speaker 1>enables them to have pricing power and pass on those

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<v Speaker 1>costs increases to consumers. On the flip side, we want

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<v Speaker 1>to be avoiding those sectors where they're highly fragmented from

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<v Speaker 1>a competition point of view, and generally speaking they default

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<v Speaker 1>competing on price. Those are the types of the earnings

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<v Speaker 1>complex which are vulnerable in this situation. Alright, Marc Franklin,

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<v Speaker 1>we are out of time, but thanks so much for

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<v Speaker 1>joining us on the Bloomberg daybreak ages today. Mark Franklin

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<v Speaker 1>is managing director and Senior portfolio manager and Manu Life

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<v Speaker 1>Investment Management