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Speaker 1: They're Happy Thursday, and potentially for me, it's the last

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Speaker 1: episode drop of the week. I obviously will have my

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Speaker 1: newsphere and all this stuff, So Happy Thursday. This is

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Speaker 1: my sort of extended weekend drop of the Chuck Toodcast.

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Speaker 1: Got a little more State of the Union fallout, a

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Speaker 1: little more Iran and Cuba fall up, but a primary

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Speaker 1: focus I want to make is get you ready for

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Speaker 1: all things Texas primaries. We'll start that, we'll do a

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Speaker 1: lot of it. Next week. We are days away, we're

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Speaker 1: no longer weeks away from the official start of the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six primary season. And if you're a political

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Speaker 1: junkie and you're signed up for me on this, I

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Speaker 1: know what the expectations are. So we're gonna we're gonna

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Speaker 1: dig into the numbers, We're gonna dig into the weeds.

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Speaker 1: We're going to see some interesting, interesting closing ad by

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Speaker 1: mister tall Rico on that side. And of course we've

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Speaker 1: got such a week. We know the Republicans are going

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Speaker 1: to a runoff. What we don't know is whether the

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Speaker 1: Democrats end up in a runoff. And I will get

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Speaker 1: to that in a bit. And I, you know, I

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Speaker 1: have a you know, normally, I right, I sort of

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Speaker 1: end my weekend with a little bit and I get

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Speaker 1: a lot more notes saying that I've made some of

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Speaker 1: you college football fans, or at least more conversant on

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Speaker 1: college football. Obviously, I'm not going to I promised I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be, you know, doing the off season, you know,

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Speaker 1: nil scandal of the week. So instead, let's just say

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Speaker 1: I have some strong opinions about the nominations for the

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Speaker 1: Rock and Roll Hall of fame, but we will put

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Speaker 1: that towards the end, but let me start with sort

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Speaker 1: of the initial fallout from sort of after a day

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Speaker 1: of the State of the Union. You know, you know,

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Speaker 1: I gave you my initial thoughts literally about fifteen minutes

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Speaker 1: after Abigail Spanberger said good night on that, So those

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Speaker 1: were fresh perspectives without sort of and it really was

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Speaker 1: sort of in many ways a derivative of the live

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Speaker 1: stream that Crystalis and I did in partnership with c

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Speaker 1: Span and YouTube, which, by the way, we just had

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Speaker 1: a blast doing that, And once again, thank you to

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Speaker 1: see Span and YouTube for providing this opportunity where we

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Speaker 1: could literally do a little Manning cast meets Mystery Science

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Speaker 1: Theater three thousand and I. You know, I'd like to

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Speaker 1: think we sort of that we we took the assignment.

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Speaker 1: We weren't overly snarky. We try to be fun but

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Speaker 1: also relevant, analytical when necessary, in quizzical, you name it.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not going to overdo it on live stream

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Speaker 1: events that aren't about primary nights or election nights. But

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Speaker 1: if there are other big nights that you'd like to

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Speaker 1: see something like that, and if you're curious of how

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Speaker 1: we did it. The whole stream is available with Crystaliz's

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel, and we'll have some links on all of

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Speaker 1: our socials as well. But I say that because what

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Speaker 1: I take away on the on the first day after

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Speaker 1: a State of the Union is what do the two

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Speaker 1: parties want to talk about in the wake of the

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Speaker 1: State of the Union, and in particular right like, what

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Speaker 1: do certainly when you look at it from the perspective

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Speaker 1: of Trump, what does the Trump White House want to

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Speaker 1: be the second day story? And I think it's pretty clear,

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Speaker 1: and it now sort of reinforces sort of what I

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Speaker 1: believe the mission was on Tuesday night, and that was

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Speaker 1: to try to essentially get the base back back into

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Speaker 1: the high eighties low nineties in his approval rating rather

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Speaker 1: than where it started to slip depending on the poll

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Speaker 1: you look like load to mid eighties, even high seventies.

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Speaker 1: There had definitely been some erosion, not a collapse, but

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Speaker 1: an erosion in his base, and it was sort of

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Speaker 1: an accumulation. Whether it's Iran, whether it's Epstein files, whether

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Speaker 1: it's Venezuela, you know, some of these, or frankly just

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Speaker 1: affordability itself, the tariffs, you name it. You know there

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Speaker 1: was some sluggishness, and it was when you see the

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Speaker 1: White House and how what they wanted to showcase, right,

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Speaker 1: They think they had a visual, you know, sort of

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Speaker 1: social media moment there where Donald Trump dared the Democrats

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Speaker 1: to stand up when given the sort of Sophie choice

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Speaker 1: of you know, are you going to protect Americans first

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Speaker 1: or anybody when it comes to violence or whatever it is,

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Speaker 1: And they clearly enjoyed that contrast. And in fact, I

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Speaker 1: do think and I can't remember if I said this

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Speaker 1: to you guys last night on the live stream or

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Speaker 1: in my on the podcast itself, the Wednesday edition, but

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Speaker 1: the speech really wasn't coherent. What it was was a

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Speaker 1: series of social media moments, right, and when you you know,

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Speaker 1: you go back, and I think I said this before.

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Speaker 1: I think there was a bit of they loaded it

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Speaker 1: up right with with the lou Rawls Parade of Stars mindset, right,

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Speaker 1: and they loaded it up with people who are more

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Speaker 1: popular than the president. Right. So it was allowed him

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Speaker 1: to soak in reflective glory, but sort of almost as

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Speaker 1: much as he loves the spotlight, you know, try to

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Speaker 1: try to share see if he could draft off of

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Speaker 1: the popularity of the Olympic team, the popularity of medal

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Speaker 1: of honor folks, the popularity of someone who rescues a

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Speaker 1: little girl during those horrific floods in Texas. It's, you know,

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Speaker 1: not a new strategy, but this was a very aggressive

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Speaker 1: version of it. And when you really look back at it,

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Speaker 1: and it really was more was not a speech, right,

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Speaker 1: There was not a beginning, middle, and end that was

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Speaker 1: very coherent. What it was was a series of social

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Speaker 1: media moments, right, And it was very clippable, and it

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Speaker 1: was clear that that that's what they decided to make

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Speaker 1: the speech about. And they wanted some visuals and they

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Speaker 1: wanted some moments and okay, and it was about sewing

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Speaker 1: up the base because they didn't talk to the middle

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Speaker 1: very well. They didn't talk about the top issue in

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Speaker 1: any credible way, right he went. He basically chose the

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden route of touting the economy. Hey, it's great.

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Speaker 1: Have you seen how wages are up and unemployment is down?

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Speaker 1: Where I mean? My friend Casey Hunt Hunter the CNN

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Speaker 1: show The Arena, which I was a panelist on, yes

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Speaker 1: on on where are my Wednesday? Sorry, my days of

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Speaker 1: the week are bloring together? On Wednesday, she did an

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Speaker 1: interesting side by side from Biden's last State of the

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Speaker 1: Union in twenty twenty four, where he is still an

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Speaker 1: active candidate for reelection, and it was all about trying

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Speaker 1: to sell you know that, hey, his economic plan was working,

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Speaker 1: and they were trying to convince the public, Hey, the

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Speaker 1: economy was better than you think it is. And here's

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump trying to do the same thing. And it

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Speaker 1: was a really well done side by side, and it

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Speaker 1: was only it only reinforced my belief that on the

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Speaker 1: economic issue, this speech did nothing, not only didn't move

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Speaker 1: the needle, might have been a negative impact on that front.

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Speaker 1: The other thing worth noting is the one big initiative, right.

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Speaker 1: There was a series of that many new ideas that

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Speaker 1: the President announced, but there was a couple that seemed concrete.

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Speaker 1: One is this proposal with AI data centers to make

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Speaker 1: the AI companies find their own sources of power and

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Speaker 1: pay for their own sources of power so that you

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Speaker 1: and I don't keep subsidizing them, which we all are

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Speaker 1: right now, particularly those of us that pay electric bills. Hey,

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Speaker 1: Dominion Power, we are getting hosed right now by all

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Speaker 1: these data centers in Ladden County on this front, and

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Speaker 1: everybody in northern Virginia knows it. And what should scare

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Speaker 1: Congress is that there's a whole bunch of people getting

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Speaker 1: screwed to electric bills that actually work for members of Congress.

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Speaker 1: So I promise you this is an issue that isn't

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Speaker 1: going to go away, since it actually is going to

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Speaker 1: be impacting people that work in the White House, work

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Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill, work in various parts of government. But

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Speaker 1: the other thing he announced was this idea that Jada

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Speaker 1: Vance was going to be sort of, I guess a

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Speaker 1: frauds are, And it was clear what it was about.

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Speaker 1: It was about Minnesota. They really want to They really

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Speaker 1: even though Minnesota, I would argue, has now flipped against

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Speaker 1: the President. Where when you say Minneapolis, the first thing

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Speaker 1: I think voters think of are the two dead Americans

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Speaker 1: and by the hands of Ice agents. But they continue

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Speaker 1: to believe there is a contrast, whether it's elon Omar

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Speaker 1: or Tim Walls, and what they believe is somehow fraud

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Speaker 1: that is related to immigration. And you had this announcement

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Speaker 1: with JD Vance, who's the frauds are that said that

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Speaker 1: they are going to essentially suspend some of the federal

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Speaker 1: money that is legally appropriated to the state of Minnesota

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Speaker 1: when it comes to Medicaid, until they produce whatever proof

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Speaker 1: that Jade Vance wants them to produce. What's interesting was

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Speaker 1: what they did is clearly illegal. A won't take you know,

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Speaker 1: you've got to quickly run to a court. You'll get

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Speaker 1: the saying the White House can't do this. They got

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Speaker 1: to release the funds, et cetera, et cetera. But I

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Speaker 1: think that's the feature. This is exactly what right the

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Speaker 1: White House wants to bait the governor of Minnesota, bait

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Speaker 1: all Minnesota Democrats into having this stand up. They clearly

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Speaker 1: want this contrast. It only helps them with the base,

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Speaker 1: It does not help them with the middle, and it

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Speaker 1: only reinforces my belief here that this that the State

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Speaker 1: of the Union strategy was truly just repairing the base,

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Speaker 1: and honestly, for a midterm election, it's not the worst

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Speaker 1: political strategy. You know, if Donald Trump were a better politician,

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Speaker 1: and when it comes to being nimble, he's not very good. Right.

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Speaker 1: What he's good is Johnny one note doing his thing

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Speaker 1: with his base. He does not pivot very well. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't do you know. My friend Brad Todd wrote a

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Speaker 1: terrific substack of saying what he would like to see

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Speaker 1: from the President. He didn't get what he wanted to say. See,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't pivot on these things, and it's clear that

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Speaker 1: that he isn't going to do. But if he's your client, right,

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Speaker 1: if you're the White House staff him, you got to

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Speaker 1: prepare him, then you want to do what you have

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Speaker 1: to do, which is, you know what, He's more comfortable

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Speaker 1: playing base politics. He's more comfortable trying to pick a

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Speaker 1: fight with the base of the Democratic Party, make at

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Speaker 1: the base of the Democrats versus the base of the Republicans.

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Speaker 1: That's his comfort zone, right to create the straw man

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Speaker 1: up on them. And what it does is it sort

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Speaker 1: of minimizes friction inside the Republican party. Right, that is

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Speaker 1: a safe place to be. And it really turns out

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Speaker 1: that the state of the Union, in some ways it

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Speaker 1: was a very risk averse state of the Union by

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Speaker 1: the president. All he did was play one note to

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Speaker 1: the base without too much attempt at actually trying to

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Speaker 1: be president of all people any of that stuff. But

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Speaker 1: that is never been his mo So if your Republican

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Speaker 1: political strategist. This is probably the best you could hope for.

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Speaker 1: He didn't make things worse picking fights with fellow Republicans.

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Speaker 1: If he had turned it into the Festivus State of

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Speaker 1: the Union, I got some real problems with you people,

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Speaker 1: right which there's a small part of all of you

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Speaker 1: that actually would have enjoyed seeing grievance, you know, the

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Speaker 1: festivust version of Donald Trump and politics in the State

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Speaker 1: of the Union. But that would have been an unmitigated

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Speaker 1: disaster for his party. If he's attacking Supreme Court justices,

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Speaker 1: attacking Thomas Massey, attacking you know, fellow Republicans. That that

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Speaker 1: wouldn't have that that only would have caused more adjeta.

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Speaker 1: But he also sort of left. But he did, you know,

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Speaker 1: the downside of what he did. While he didn't cause

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Speaker 1: new problems for the Republicans, there is no agenda to

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Speaker 1: run on it, is it. I mean, there's no new

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Speaker 1: He didn't the President didn't really issue a call for

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Speaker 1: action by Congress. Okay, past the stock trading band, Well,

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Speaker 1: that's all gummed up by leadership right now, that's ready

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Speaker 1: to go. It's leadership that is choking on that issue

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Speaker 1: because I think many of them aren't ready to give

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Speaker 1: up their stock trades, to be perfectly frank, and you know,

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Speaker 1: so it is what are they going to do if

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Speaker 1: they keep Congress. They don't really have an agenda beyond that.

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Speaker 1: So that is the downside of this strategy by the president.

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Speaker 1: One more note. One of my favorite daily newsletters that

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Speaker 1: I read is called news Items by John Ellis. I've

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Speaker 1: known John Ellis, he worked, He was a Fox News

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Speaker 1: election analyst for decades. Really smart about this stuff. Happens

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Speaker 1: to be by the way, yes, John Ellis, he happens

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Speaker 1: to be a part of the Bush clan. He is

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Speaker 1: first cousins with Jeb and George W. Bush. He had

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Speaker 1: an interesting essay this earlier on Wednesday, basically not understanding

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Speaker 1: what the president is up to with Iran, and I

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Speaker 1: think it was a really smart I mean, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to read his lead here in his app and it

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Speaker 1: was his post is titled Iran, Cuba and American Politics

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Speaker 1: and then with the little subtlely the fifty first state.

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Speaker 1: And I'll get to quickly, but let me read his

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Speaker 1: lead because it does get at to the head scratchers

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Speaker 1: that a lot of people have about what we're up to.

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Speaker 1: Right now with Iran. It's passing strange politically speaking, that

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Speaker 1: President Trump has chosen to bring the United States to

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Speaker 1: the brink of war or something like that in the

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Speaker 1: Middle East. The President knows his political base, he knows

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Speaker 1: what they will abide and what they will not, and

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Speaker 1: he knows that they will not abide a war in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East. What they might or and perhaps will

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Speaker 1: abide is some kind of decisive strike against Iran, perhaps

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Speaker 1: one that disables some of their ballistic missiles or destroys

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Speaker 1: parts of their nuclear program, or forces them to negotiate

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Speaker 1: some sort of deal that constrains their ability to reac

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Speaker 1: havoc in the region and beyond. But that's it, and

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Speaker 1: any suggestion of missing creep is a non starter. Any

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Speaker 1: over long stay is a betrayal of solemn promise of

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Speaker 1: nor more foreign adventures. And then he goes on to

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Speaker 1: say Arando's is too so strategically speaking, all Iran needs

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Speaker 1: to do is everything in its power to rope it oupe.

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Speaker 1: The United States hit us again harder and harder until

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Speaker 1: you've exhausted your available resources and your patience of your

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Speaker 1: political base, and then you'll have to retreat, and we

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Speaker 1: will have defeated the Great Satan Again. This is essentially

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Speaker 1: what John Ellis is putting in the words of the

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Speaker 1: Iranians there, essentially saying, that's the general idea, and I

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Speaker 1: this is the problem. The president has put himself, and

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Speaker 1: he's put himself in this box and around what are

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Speaker 1: you doing? And what does success look like? And if

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Speaker 1: you hit the regime and the regime is still there standing,

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Speaker 1: how long are you going to hit them? How much

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Speaker 1: are you going to destroy? When you break it, you

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Speaker 1: own it? So are we going to rebuild Iran? At

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Speaker 1: some point? If you do successfully do that? How did

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Speaker 1: that go?

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Speaker 2: In?

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Speaker 1: I rock when we did we did all that? So

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Speaker 1: what is it? And then you know, as John points out,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that the President's chief military advisor, the

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Speaker 1: Joint Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Raisin Kane, is

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Speaker 1: basically shooting up all sorts of flares like we don't

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Speaker 1: have the next day strategy here, we don't have exactly

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Speaker 1: what the what the goal of this operation is, right,

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Speaker 1: and he went to the Wall Street Journal. It's confirmed

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Speaker 1: in the Times, in the in the in the Post. Look,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people in Washington have figured out to

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Speaker 1: strategically speak to Donald Trump. You sometimes need to use

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Speaker 1: the press. So here's Caine going to the Wall Street Journal,

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Speaker 1: where he knows the President will consume. But the Post

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Speaker 1: in the Times are also two news organizations the President

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Speaker 1: regularly consumes. And this is all also about getting to

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Speaker 1: people whispering in his ear. There's no doubt Lindsey Graham

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Speaker 1: wants him to go yesterday. But this was when when

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Speaker 1: General Kine is making it clear this you know you're

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Speaker 1: not going to air strike your way to regime change.

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Speaker 1: So what's your goal here? And are you really going

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Speaker 1: to negotiate a deal with these guys? Is that going

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Speaker 1: to go? Well? He kind of sort of laid out

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Speaker 1: a pretext for why he would strike Iran. But if

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Speaker 1: you're not going to put boots on the ground, you're

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Speaker 1: likely not going to change that regime and they may

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Speaker 1: simply hunker down. And as as John Ellis points out,

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Speaker 1: if they sort of withstand this, the United States says, Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is as much as we can do and backs off.

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Speaker 1: Have they withstood the onslaught of the Great American Satan? Right?

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Speaker 1: You can see where this is going. Now. What John

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Speaker 1: does is pivots and he said, why he thinks all

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Speaker 1: of this is so off, it's so clear that there

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Speaker 1: is no good there is no Look, there are plenty

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Speaker 1: of good potential outcomes in Iran, but to get to those,

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Speaker 1: you know, to quote Jim Stravidis in the interview he

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Speaker 1: did with me on Newsphere last Sunday, I encourage you

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Speaker 1: to go see that some of you, where I hope are,

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Speaker 1: have subscribed to Newsphere where he said, look, there's probably

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Speaker 1: a one in four chance this does cause regime regime change,

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Speaker 1: and weren't a better place in a year than we

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Speaker 1: are today with Iran? And there's every and there's also

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Speaker 1: a one and four chance, he said, that this could

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Speaker 1: go horribly wrong and it galvanizes the Iranian public behind

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Speaker 1: the regime and they get stronger. And then he said,

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Speaker 1: and there's the middle to scenarios, some sort of muddled

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Speaker 1: scenario that essentially is some combination of a mini quagmire.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's a policy quagmire, but it's just mess and

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Speaker 1: it's kind of unresolved. Think of it as sort of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's attempt to remodel in whatever he's doing with

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Speaker 1: the Kennedy Center. It's kind of half baked. And half asked,

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Speaker 1: And that's kind of what it looks like with Iran.

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Speaker 1: So his argument is, what are you doing. You're being

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Speaker 1: a little impatient, right, You could actually simply back off

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Speaker 1: and let Iran shrink on its own, let them deal

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Speaker 1: with more protesters, don't get in the way. But now

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Speaker 1: that he's put all these melody, now it's sort of

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Speaker 1: it looks like this impatience by Trump to just get

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Speaker 1: some action. Right. This is the story of his presidency.

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Speaker 1: His impatience is among his worst instincts, and his impatience

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Speaker 1: leads him to bad outcomes. His impatience on he really

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Speaker 1: believed in this teriff regime he would have gotten the

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Speaker 1: authority from Congress when he had the political capital to

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Speaker 1: get Congress and to give him this authority back in

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Speaker 1: March and April. But he doesn't think that way. He

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Speaker 1: just wants it now. You know, this is this is

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Speaker 1: this is the immaturity part of the seventy nine year

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Speaker 1: old president of the United States. Right, there's this weird

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Speaker 1: thirteen year old mindset that he has where it's just

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Speaker 1: he wants it now.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Now, what John Ellis argues is, as he said, America

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Speaker 1: is now choosing to be impatient with Iran. It doesn't

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Speaker 1: make sense militarily, he argues, I agree with him, and

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Speaker 1: it makes no sense politically at all. That's for sure,

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Speaker 1: right this is this isn't a good military strategy, and

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Speaker 1: it's certainly not a good political strategy. And then he

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Speaker 1: says this He goes especially because ninety minutes east of

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Speaker 1: Key West Florida, lies what he calls the mother of

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Speaker 1: all political opportunities, and that's Cuba. He makes the case

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Speaker 1: that Cuba's on the brink of societal collapse. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of reporting that indicates this. It does not appear

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Speaker 1: that this regime is going to hang on the rest

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Speaker 1: of this calendar year, and it may collapse without having

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Speaker 1: to put an armada surrounding the island of Cuba to

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Speaker 1: make sure the regime goes away. It's going to collapse

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Speaker 1: on its own, and the United States is going to

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Speaker 1: almost have no choice, and it's certainly going to have

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Speaker 1: the ambition, especially with Marco Rubio Secretary State, and so

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Speaker 1: many Republicans and Cuban exiles in South Florida who have

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Speaker 1: been dreaming of the moment that this is going to happen,

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Speaker 1: and the Cuban American community would flood the island with

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Speaker 1: money and resources. It could the infamous line that Dick

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Speaker 1: Cheney said about Iraq, Oh, well we greeted as liberators.

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Speaker 1: Cuba might actually greet us as liberators. And certainly the

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Speaker 1: reunification of Cuban families, the economic opportunities it is, as

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Speaker 1: he says, he goes it's not going to win him

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Speaker 1: a Nobel Peace Prize, but it actually offers him an opportunity,

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Speaker 1: as he said, to create a fifty first state. We'll see.

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Speaker 1: Maybe this is how Puerto Rico or DC happens. Maybe

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Speaker 1: Cuba and DC coming together. By the way, it's not

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Speaker 1: the craziest idea. There was some talk of making Cuba

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Speaker 1: a state back in the early twentieth century. Maybe it

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Speaker 1: stays as a standalone country. Maybe it becomes sort of

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Speaker 1: what Puerto Rico is, a commonwealth with an association with

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Speaker 1: the United States. Maybe it stays an independent country with

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Speaker 1: free and fair elections and things like that. But I

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Speaker 1: think what the point Ellis is making is there's a

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Speaker 1: fairly easy foreign policy victory that might be available to

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Speaker 1: you in this hemisphere without too much blood and treasure.

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Speaker 1: There is a foreign policy outcome that Trump is trying

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Speaker 1: to will in the Middle East that has more opportunities

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Speaker 1: for it to go haywire, and yet the president's in

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Speaker 1: patience has put him where he is now. Now if

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Speaker 1: he doesn't do anything in Iran, it's Taco Trump. So anyway,

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Speaker 1: I just thought I wanted to highlight the piece because

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Speaker 1: I thought Ellis nailed it. It was sort of like,

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Speaker 1: this is a head scratcher politically, strategically, militarily, and they're

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Speaker 1: only I think, you know, there's only a I'm going

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Speaker 1: to use the Stavridi's measurement about a one and four

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Speaker 1: chance that GESS goes as well as it could be.

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Speaker 1: And even if it does, it could it could drain

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Speaker 1: us of resources that the public may not like. And

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Speaker 1: it's certainly going to be the type of distraction that

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Speaker 1: makes it look like the president is more focused on

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Speaker 1: his legacy, building his own you know, stuff overseas rather

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Speaker 1: than the cost of living here at home, where Cuba

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Speaker 1: is a quasi it's like one of the few foreign

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Speaker 1: policy issues that's quasi domestic. This episode of The Chuck

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Speaker 1: Podcast is brought to you by ze Biotics. Let's face it,

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Speaker 1: after a night with drinks, it's hard to bounce back

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Speaker 1: the next day. You have to make a choice either

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Speaker 1: have a great night or a great next day. Well,

431
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Speaker 1: All right, so this weekend is the final weekend before

486
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: the primary season kicks off. All things Texas. It's not

487
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 1: just Texas on the battle on Tuesday, North Carolina as well,

488
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: But we don't have a big, huge There's a few

489
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 1: congressional primaries that we're going to be keeping an eye

490
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: on in North Carolina. But look, the big stories are

491
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:07,239
Speaker 1: the two primaries, the Republican primary between John corn Can

492
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 1: Paxton Wesley Hunt, and it's pretty clear that's going to

493
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: be a runoff, and it's looking clear all the time

494
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 1: that it's going to be Paxton and Cornyan in the runoff.

495
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: So I actually want to focus the remainder of my

496
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 1: time before we get to the interview on what's happening

497
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 1: inside the Democratic side, because what happens in the Democratic

498
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 1: primary could very well influence what happens in the Republican runoff.

499
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: So again, you see, it was what I sort of

500
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: predicted a couple of weeks ago that eventually you'd see

501
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 1: Wesley Hunt fade. You're starting to see Wesley Hunt fade.

502
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 1: Both Cornyan and Paxton have much better to get out

503
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: the vote organizations on the early vote, and you're starting

504
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 1: to see that. So I think what will matter a

505
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: bit is. I think it's a fairly I wouldn't call

506
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 1: it a big deal, but it's not a small deal. Right,

507
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 1: We'll call it a deal if Cornan is the leading

508
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 1: vote getter on the Republican side. If Cornyn is able

509
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 1: to be the leading vote getter, that is because he's

510
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: never been ahead in any poll that wasn't released by

511
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: his own campaign. He is pretty much trailed out in

512
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 1: every public poll and every other private poll. Not by

513
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: a lot, I mean, you see, and it gets really

514
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: tied at some points, been one or two points. But

515
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 1: Paxton has had a consistent lead. And there's certainly plenty

516
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 1: of reasons to believe you'd rather be Paxton in the

517
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: runoff than Cornan in the runoff. Paxson's going to have

518
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: the more devoted voters, and runoffs tend to favor the

519
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: candidate closer to the political base of that party rather

520
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 1: than you don't get as many sort of casual voters

521
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: showing up for that second round. Sometimes it happens, every

522
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: once in a while, the runoff will get a higher

523
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: turnout than the primary itself. We saw that happen in

524
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 1: a Mississippi Senate race back in twenty fourteen. That featured

525
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: one of these these primary challenges to a sitting senator.

526
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: But what could what so? I think, look the order

527
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 1: of finish matters, you know, corn and getting the top spot,

528
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: maybe that encourages Trump to get on board. Corn can't

529
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: win this without Trump unilaterally endorsing him and essentially unindorsing Paxton.

530
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 1: And there seems to be really only a couple of

531
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: ways this can happen. One is Cornn needs to be

532
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: the leading vote getter. I will be surprised if he is.

533
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: But you know, when you drop the amount of money

534
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: he's dropped, you assume he's got a very good on

535
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 1: the ground organization, and the Cornn voter is going to

536
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 1: show up. Right, the corn And voters in the in

537
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:50,239
Speaker 1: the the nice neighborhoods where George W. Bush lives in

538
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: and around where my son goes to school at SMU. Right,

539
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: that's Cornn Country. Now you go further into North Texas

540
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 1: and you get to Paxton Country. The further the closer

541
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: you get to Fort Worth. But you know, in the

542
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: in the the wealthier suburbs of Houston and Dallas, assuming

543
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: they've stayed voting in Republican primaries, it's a big if

544
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 1: there are quite a few sort of former Bush Republicans

545
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: that now vote in Democratic primaries because of Donald Trump,

546
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 1: that's going to be key. I think that is a

547
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 1: it is a like I said, it doesn't mean that

548
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 1: Cornyn is guaranteed to survive the runoff if he's a

549
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 1: leading vote getter, but that is something to watch for

550
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 1: and it will matter. But we're still you know, it's

551
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 1: it's a there's going to be a runoff, and and

552
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 1: you know we've got it's a long runoff. It goes

553
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 1: all the way basically to Memorial there, which brings us

554
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: to this democratic back and forth between James Tollerco who

555
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 1: is a darling of this sort of establishment and donor crowd,

556
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: and Jasmine Crockett, who has very you know, run her

557
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: own race kind of a anti establishment, and yet she

558
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 1: is getting the support of the more mainstream Democratic primary voters.

559
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 1: This has been a fascinating divide to watch. I think

560
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:10,959
Speaker 1: there are a lot of people who haven't paid attention

561
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 1: much to Crockett in Tallo Rico and assume that Crockett

562
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: is the more base based Democrat and that Tallo Rico

563
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: is the more moderate electable Democrat. And yet many of

564
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 1: the progressive groups that have endorsed, and two of the

565
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 1: biggest progressives have actually not endorsed in this race, AOC

566
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 1: and Bernie Sanders, who have gotten involved in a lot

567
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: of primaries not involved in this one. They have stayed out.

568
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 1: But you have p triple c. Adam Green is a

569
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: big part of this. For those of you that are

570
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 1: in progressive politics. Progressive you know, they definitely usually endorse

571
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: on the progressive side. They endorse tall Rico. And when

572
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 1: you actually look at the vote, at the raw splits

573
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 1: inside the Democratic primary, there was a University of Texas

574
00:33:57,960 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: pull out there and there's a more recent one. Tallarrico

575
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 1: campaign put out a pole claiming they were now up

576
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: four points. There's another pole that's been circulating earlier on

577
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 1: Wednesday that showed Jasmine Crockett up double digits. Now that

578
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:15,240
Speaker 1: pole had been conducted, a big chunk of it conducted

579
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 1: before the Colbert FCC incident, I guess we'll call it.

580
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 1: I think she had nothing to do the FC the

581
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 1: accusation of all of that, which of course gave tallerco

582
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of attention. So there's you know,

583
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 1: so is his crocket up double digits or is tallerco

584
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 1: up two or three? You know, tall Rico released his

585
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: own pole because I think they didn't like this narrative

586
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: that was developing that oh wow, Crockett's about to could

587
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,359
Speaker 1: she win this without a runoff? There is a third

588
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: cannon on the ballot, very underfunded. But you know, this

589
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: race is forty nine forty eight. You know, the third

590
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 1: candidate only needs to get you know what, the third

591
00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:03,320
Speaker 1: candidate gets anything over three three or fo four points, well,

592
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 1: I think the likely of a DEM run off suddenly

593
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 1: inches up. There was a ut Austin Yugov poll that

594
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 1: was circulating and it was conducted the second through the sixteenth,

595
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 1: so it started before the Colbert incident. And as I

596
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 1: was saying, and what was interesting about what we saw

597
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: in the Democratic prime was a very small sample, so

598
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: I'm mindful of that, just three hundred and seventy Democratic

599
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 1: likely voters, and they had crocked ahead by double digits.

600
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 1: What was interesting is when you went inside the numbers,

601
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 1: it looked to me like an old Sanders Clinton divide

602
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 1: in the Democratic primary battles in twenty sixteen. And what

603
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,439
Speaker 1: do I mean by that? So in a lot of these,

604
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 1: particularly the Southern primaries, the splits would be very, very

605
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,280
Speaker 1: consistent across the board. Hillary Clinton would do better among

606
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 1: actual registered Democrats, better among African American voters, and in

607
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 1: some ways better among Latino voters, while Bernie did better

608
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 1: among it was competitive among Latino voters, did better among

609
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 1: white voters, which white Democratic voters are usually more progressive,

610
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 1: and Democratic Party did not do well among African American voters.

611
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 1: He did well among younger voters, and Hillary Clinton did

612
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: well among older voters. Well, Crockett had a big edge

613
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,280
Speaker 1: among older vote Basically, she was winning all voters fifty plus.

614
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 1: Tall Rica was only winning voters eighteen to thirty five. Now,

615
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 1: why does that matter a primary? Well, the more reliable

616
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 1: primary voters are older, an African American, and female. Well,

617
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 1: Crockett was ahead in all of those demographic groups. There.

618
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: Now look tall Rico's poll that he put out later

619
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: in the day after this double digit lead of Crockett's

620
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 1: sorted and it wasn't the only poll that has shown

621
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 1: Crockett ahead. She's been ahead pretty much the entire primary campaign.

622
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 1: Would you look at the makeup of her support orders

623
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:04,720
Speaker 1: in these polls, her coalition looks more durable for showing

624
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: up to the polls. Now. Look, I think we're going

625
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 1: to have a huge turnout among Democrats. We've seen it

626
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: in special elections. So the bigger the turnout, the better

627
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 1: perhaps for tall Rico. And in fact, if you look

628
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,959
Speaker 1: at the tallar Rico poll that was put out, one

629
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 1: thing that they wanted to emphasize that the UT poll

630
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 1: didn't do was this idea of the electability question, who

631
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: can win and primary Democratic primary voters, According to tall

632
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 1: Rico's pollster said tall Rico's more likely to beat the

633
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 1: GP nominee. Forty seven percent picked tall Rico, only twenty

634
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,720
Speaker 1: two percent picked Crockett. Back in December, when they tested

635
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: the electability question, Tallerco's edge was only four points. Look,

636
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 1: I think electability is a very hard thing to poll

637
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:01,959
Speaker 1: because it's a very subjective thing. Right, what I think

638
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,439
Speaker 1: is electable? Sure, you could say, Hey, I've been doing

639
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,800
Speaker 1: this thirty years. I think I have an idea of

640
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 1: which kind of candidates have the highest ceiling, and I

641
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,839
Speaker 1: think that's the better way to do it. Look, considering

642
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 1: the history of Texas, the history of eddy state, we've

643
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 1: only had a handful that of elected African American women

644
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,479
Speaker 1: statewide to the United States Senate. So it is hard

645
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,280
Speaker 1: not to sit there and say the white male pastor

646
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 1: probably has a higher potential ceiling in a general election

647
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: than an African American congresswoman from Dallas, except I would

648
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 1: say being from Dallas is actually might be a good

649
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 1: advantage versus Tallarico's base of Austin, which is a bit

650
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:52,280
Speaker 1: more progressive. So but I understand this idea of who's

651
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 1: got a higher ceiling. The fact is Poles have shown

652
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: they both are ahead of Paxton right now, and part

653
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: of that is thanks to John Cornyn and the Senate

654
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: Republican packs that have been very supportive of Corny. They

655
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 1: have dropped a mother load of negative ads on Packston.

656
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 1: It has barely budget his primary numbers, but it has

657
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 1: hurt him with general election voters, which is why what

658
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 1: happens in this Democratic primary may dictate what could happen

659
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:27,280
Speaker 1: in the Republican runoff. But the big thing I wanted

660
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,320
Speaker 1: to make clear as you're watching these Texas primaries unfold

661
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 1: on Tuesday night, and by the way, I'm going to

662
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 1: have a live stream all of you. We'll put it

663
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 1: on X We're going to put on YouTube. I'll be

664
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 1: in partnership with my friends at Decision Desk, and of

665
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 1: course christ Eliza Jeffrey Scaling, He's going to be on

666
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 1: there again. We're going to have our parade of data

667
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 1: stars helping us break down. Not just the Senate primaries,

668
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 1: which of course we'll all be on pins and needles for,

669
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: but there's a slew of fascinating House primaries, including whether

670
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 1: Tony Gonzalez, who is having to deal with the Republican

671
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: congressman from South Texas, having a deal with a whole

672
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 1: bunch of President Nation calls due to the affair with

673
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 1: the woman who killed herself by lighting herself on fire.

674
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 1: You've had bipartisan calls for his resignation. I have a

675
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 1: feeling the voters are going to take care of his

676
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 1: political career. But whether or not, you know, he has

677
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 1: to resign or not, I think the voters are going

678
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 1: to make that decision for him. Dan Crenshaw the only

679
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 1: Republican incumbent congressman in Texas running for reelection who did

680
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 1: not get endorsed by Donald Trump. In fact, his opponent

681
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 1: was just recently endorsed by Ted Cruz. That will be

682
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 1: an interesting primary Obviously, we've got all the redistricting stuff

683
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 1: that happened when Texas started the remap, So there's a

684
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 1: lot going on, and we're going to have it all covered.

685
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 1: The Election nine live stream we will be there, and

686
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 1: we're also going to cover North Carolina and yes, Arkansas.

687
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 1: Probably the only November competitive election in Arkansas, if there

688
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 1: is going to be anything competitive at all, would be

689
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,320
Speaker 1: the Little Rock congressional seat that's french Hill these days.

690
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 1: He's a pretty well liked figure, so I'm highly suspect.

691
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 1: But in a waveyear, if any member of Congress in

692
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 1: Arkansas is going to get held under sixty or even

693
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:14,919
Speaker 1: close to the fifty five percent mark, you would id

694
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,759
Speaker 1: the congressman from Little Rock, which is french Hill these days.

695
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 1: So but to go back, you know this Tall Rico

696
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 1: Crockett race I think is clearly going to be pretty

697
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 1: close if it ends in a runoff. Trump may not

698
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: get it involved. If Tall Rico wins without a runoff,

699
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 1: I've talked to some Republican sources who indicate that that

700
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:43,320
Speaker 1: might get Trump off the fence on Paxton and endorse

701
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: cornn especially if Cornin's a leading vote getter. And I

702
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:50,399
Speaker 1: go back to that. Cornan has to be the leading

703
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 1: vote getter, I think, to even have a chance because

704
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 1: he can play the quote unquote winner card. Right. Trump

705
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 1: doesn't like the back losers, so in that sense, he

706
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 1: might be able to claim he backs a winner. If

707
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 1: Crockett wins without a primary, I think a lot of

708
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 1: Texas Republicans, and perhaps even some Senate Republican strategists, are

709
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: going to convince themselves it won't matter who they nominate.

710
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: I'm not sure I agree with that, but I understand

711
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 1: when you look at the history of this country with

712
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: African American women senate nominees, it's Texas. You can go

713
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 1: through all the reasons why he seems uniquely unelectable. Ken

714
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 1: Paxton US and I think what people miss about Jasmine

715
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 1: Crockett is she's not the progressive. She is much more

716
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 1: of a working class Democrat, much more of a Jim

717
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 1: Cleiburn Democrat. If you're going to go in sort of

718
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 1: congressional black caucus politics, there very much in not necessarily

719
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:02,360
Speaker 1: on the far left of the spectrum here, So you

720
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 1: know it's it's certainly she's going to get painted as

721
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:09,240
Speaker 1: an extremist. She's certainly been very loud on social media,

722
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: you might say, and there's no doubt how the Republicans going,

723
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: But I let's just say, I wouldn't be writing. I

724
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: wouldn't write this race off. I still think it doesn't

725
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 1: matter who the Democratic nominee is. It's going to be

726
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: hard to win in Texas, but it's going to be

727
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:28,760
Speaker 1: quite competitive no matter which one of these two candids.

728
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 1: I think we've seen the better campaigner is Jasmine Crockett.

729
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 1: Talla Rico may have the better resume as far as

730
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:41,839
Speaker 1: donors are concerned, but I don't think he's Pete Buddhages yet.

731
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 1: And I think there's been a lot of people betting

732
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 1: that maybe he's the next Peat. I think when you

733
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 1: see that, you know, I think he really if he

734
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 1: loses this race and doesn't make it into a runoff,

735
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 1: even we will say the way the fact that he

736
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 1: was that he that comment about Colin alright, wasn't mediocre candidate,

737
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:10,719
Speaker 1: it was mediocre black candidate. I think that it had

738
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:14,800
Speaker 1: a It's very possible this impacts voters much more deeply

739
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:19,040
Speaker 1: than you think, like going, huh the pastor thinks in

740
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 1: identity politics too, And I just think that that, you know,

741
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 1: if he loses, that will be the moment that is

742
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:32,240
Speaker 1: pointed to is sort of you know, this is why

743
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 1: you don't pick nominees based on resumes. You actually wait

744
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,840
Speaker 1: and see how they perform as candidates. And speaking of that,

745
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,479
Speaker 1: have you seen what's going on in main lately? There's

746
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 1: another poll out again you univer see of New Hampshire

747
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:53,280
Speaker 1: that has Graham Platner, the oyster farmer, up nearly forty

748
00:44:53,320 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 1: points over Janet Mills, the sitting incumbent governor. It's interesting,

749
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,879
Speaker 1: So Chuck Schumer was asked about this, about this pole

750
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 1: that should platter continue to be ahead double digits over

751
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 1: Janet Mills even after the so called Nazi tattoo and

752
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 1: all of that controversy, none of it seemed to hurt him,

753
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 1: and none of it seemed to accrue to the benefit

754
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 1: of Mills. And if anything, the fact that she just

755
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 1: is not getting traction yet has to make you wonder

756
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:33,239
Speaker 1: if this is if this is something the is this

757
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:36,399
Speaker 1: the age issue? Right? They were thinking, Look, the best

758
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 1: way to knock off an incumbent that's been there forever

759
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 1: is not somebody who looks like she's older than Susan Collins.

760
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 1: But what's interesting is is Schumer was asked about this

761
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:52,359
Speaker 1: race and whether he wants to admit if he backed

762
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:55,240
Speaker 1: the wrong candidate. And by the way, you know, Schumer's

763
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 1: track record here is terrible so far the cycle. I'm

764
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:58,879
Speaker 1: going to get to it in a minute. And he says,

765
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:00,800
Speaker 1: Poles come and go. We're going to Maine, and Frankly,

766
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:04,919
Speaker 1: Mills is the only Democrat who won statewide in twenty years. Well,

767
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:08,919
Speaker 1: an extraordinarily defensive statement. It is technically true, but full

768
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,759
Speaker 1: of shit what Schumer just said there. He said Mills

769
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: is the only Democrat who's won statewide in twenty years. Okay,

770
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 1: Angus King has won a bunch, but Angus King has

771
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 1: been an independent coxing with the Democrats. So it's interesting

772
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 1: whin Schumer claims Angus King and when he doesn't claim

773
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:26,399
Speaker 1: Angus King. And by the way, when Angus King ring

774
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,279
Speaker 1: for the Senate, you know who endorsed his candidacy and

775
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 1: funded his candidacy, the d SC. So it's kind of

776
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 1: a misleading statement there, but it was a you could

777
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 1: tell it's a bit stubborn. But what's interesting, right Tall

778
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 1: Rico was a Schumer recruit. Looks like right now polls

779
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 1: show them losing to Crockett. In Iowa, Josh Turek was

780
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 1: the Schumer recruit. Zach Walls put out his own poll.

781
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,359
Speaker 1: Republicans have put out a poll. Multiple poles have shown

782
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 1: him up double digits. Janet Mills was his recruit. Graham

783
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 1: Platner's winning in the primary. Look, I know it sounds

784
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:00,759
Speaker 1: like I'm picking on Chuck Schumer because he is in

785
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 1: charge of this. Roy Cooper is a great get and

786
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 1: there's no primary. He's got to worry about North Carolina.

787
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 1: And Mary Pitzello is a great get in Alaska. So

788
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 1: you know, if I'm if you're if we're going to

789
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 1: ding Schumer here for making for getting too involved in

790
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 1: these primaries in Texas, Maine, and Iowa. I think it's

791
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 1: one of those cases he had to let the candidates

792
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: perform and then decide who's the best candidate, you know,

793
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 1: instead of just looking at resumes. Once you'll let this

794
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:28,320
Speaker 1: play out, then decide right let the candidates and the

795
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 1: voters play the game, if you will, before you come

796
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 1: in and decide who should what the results should be.

797
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 1: You know, this is with you know, with Iowa, this

798
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:40,319
Speaker 1: is not the first time he is backed the wrong

799
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 1: candidate in Iowa multiple times now, which is why Democrats

800
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 1: have fallen further behind in that state. It is it

801
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 1: is look, part of this is in defense of Schumer.

802
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:57,319
Speaker 1: Here they're the establishment and we're in a campaign here

803
00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:01,839
Speaker 1: where the establishment is not popular hard stop. So there

804
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 1: is an argument to be made if there are certain

805
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 1: candidates he wants to see when the best thing he

806
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 1: can do is not endorse them, right, I mean, his

807
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 1: candidate in Michigan might be the weakest of the three

808
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: primary candidates at the moment, Haley Stevens. So the good

809
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 1: news for Schumer and the Democrats is they seem to

810
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 1: have some pretty good campaigners that may knock off his

811
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:31,280
Speaker 1: recruits Platner in Maine, Walls in Iowa, Crockett in Texas.

812
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 1: And it's also possibly true that the more public the

813
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 1: party is on who its preferences are, that it sends

814
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 1: the exact opposite message to where Democratic primary voters are

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Speaker 1: as low as two dollars a day that would be

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863
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864
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865
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 1: Get your free quote at ethos dot com slash chuck.

866
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:40,960
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867
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 1: may vary and the rates themselves may vary as well,

868
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 1: but trust me, life insurance is something you should really

869
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 1: think about it, especially if you've got a growing family.

870
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:50,400
Speaker 2: Ask Chuck.

871
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:57,240
Speaker 1: First question comes from Kelly X from Aubrey, Texas, Hey, Texas.

872
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:01,400
Speaker 1: Big theme this this episode, Kelly Wrights, I was surprised

873
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 1: that Trump only briefly mentioned transgender issues in the State

874
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 1: of the Union. I expected more culture war focus. Does

875
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:08,359
Speaker 1: this signal a shift for Republicans in twenty twenty six

876
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 1: towards emphasizing the economy instead or wore they still lean

877
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 1: on issues like transgender rights, and religion. If race is

878
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 1: titan with groups like American Principles Project pledging millions and

879
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:20,439
Speaker 1: influencers building their brands around anti trans rhetoric, and where

880
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 1: these topics aren't going away. Thanks for all you do, Look,

881
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 1: I think I think the trans issue is going to

882
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:32,719
Speaker 1: continue to be on the upper end of issues that

883
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 1: Republicans use in these campaigns. Particularly I brought up main

884
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 1: earlier in the In this episode, I think the I

885
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:43,760
Speaker 1: think that if it is Janet Mills and Susan Collins,

886
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 1: and it may very well not be Janet Mills and

887
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 1: Susan Collins, that you will see Republicans try to make

888
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:55,280
Speaker 1: Mills's back and forth with the president over trans issues

889
00:52:56,160 --> 00:53:00,439
Speaker 1: a bigger issue. I do think you're right that it

890
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: can be distracting from economic issues. These culture issues all

891
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 1: depending on what it is. But you know this is

892
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:09,600
Speaker 1: what when you're behind, you know when when the when

893
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 1: the economic story is not a good one for your party,

894
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 1: you look for a cultural issue to try to to

895
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:18,680
Speaker 1: try to sort of get in the way. So that's

896
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 1: where I suspect this gets used. And really more on

897
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 1: the on the children, on the on the on the

898
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:29,399
Speaker 1: under eighteen side of this issue, Like, I don't think

899
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 1: I think it'll be less on the women's sports angle

900
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 1: that we saw a lot of in twenty twenty four.

901
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:37,000
Speaker 1: I think it's more now that you've seen many of

902
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:40,319
Speaker 1: these medical groups start to back off and recommending any

903
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 1: of these surgeries before before before folks turn eighteen. That's

904
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 1: because when you pull that that that gets closer to

905
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:53,719
Speaker 1: being a sixty five thirty five issue where there's there's

906
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 1: there's a lot of folks who I think would be

907
00:53:56,800 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 1: pro protection of trans rights for adults who are not

908
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 1: ready to support using taxpayer dollars and for the idea

909
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:12,760
Speaker 1: of having these surgeries for minors. So I think that's

910
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:18,360
Speaker 1: that's the line politically that I think Republicans believe that

911
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 1: they can sort of win, get it to seventy thirty

912
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 1: sixty five thirty five split on these issues when you

913
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:28,480
Speaker 1: make it about that, when you make it about individual

914
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 1: rights and liberty, that's where I think it's less where

915
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:36,360
Speaker 1: sort of the libertarian in the libertarian in both the

916
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,880
Speaker 1: right and the left feels like, hey live and let

917
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 1: live when it comes to adults, right, So I suspect

918
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:44,759
Speaker 1: when it gets used, it's going to be on the

919
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 1: issue of minors. Next question comes from anonymous, So I'm

920
00:54:50,239 --> 00:54:54,120
Speaker 1: just going to presume it's a senior staffer at the

921
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 1: White House. I have kid only half right. We never

922
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 1: know anontos rights. I viewed the speech in three sections.

923
00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 1: One the me, me me part. I saved our country,

924
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:07,239
Speaker 1: I saved the world, et cetera, with a little Biden

925
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:09,799
Speaker 1: bashing to the Oprah section you get a medal, and

926
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 1: you get a medal, and you get an uncle. And

927
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:14,400
Speaker 1: three and the baiten demean the dem section. He stayed

928
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:16,840
Speaker 1: on a well rehearsed script, kept a good kept a

929
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 1: good news, slash, lies, exaggeration, distortions, didn't address Epstein, Ukraine,

930
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 1: or Ice, and he used the Dems like a prop.

931
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,240
Speaker 1: I worry about him being under control until the midterms.

932
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 1: Bring back crazy Trump. Thanks. That's an interesting well, look,

933
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 1: I think that that I you know, I think in

934
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 1: this case, you know, he he is competitive and he

935
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 1: doesn't want to lose. And I think, if you know,

936
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 1: Susie Wilds has a way of getting him into certain places.

937
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 1: Jade Vances also plays this role of trying to get

938
00:55:48,080 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 1: the president in the right mindset, because again, we know

939
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 1: we're dealing with arrested development here where his you know

940
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 1: he can crazy Trump can show up at any time.

941
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:02,880
Speaker 1: Bestivus Trump can so up at any time. But if

942
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:05,920
Speaker 1: you frame it as competitive Trump, all right, this is

943
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 1: what they're not going to expect to be miss sir,

944
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 1: mister president, et cetera. You know, he can get quasi

945
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 1: on message, like but look, Epstein's not going away. And

946
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 1: the fact that you have very we now have details

947
00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 1: where the Justice Department had put out a statement. Yeah

948
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 1: it's possible. There's some files that were still don't have

949
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:30,319
Speaker 1: will find them. And now it's sort of like when

950
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 1: you know, when when you have a survivor saying, I

951
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:37,400
Speaker 1: know there is a missing FBI file about an allegation

952
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 1: that I made against the president, then the minute it's found,

953
00:56:42,920 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 1: it's going to get outside even more outsized attention. So

954
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 1: I'm usually a skeptic on government conspiracies in general, because

955
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:54,399
Speaker 1: the bureaucracy works in such a way that it's really

956
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 1: hard to keep make a conspiracy stick. But I will

957
00:56:59,280 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 1: say if somebody thought, hey, they're better off see if

958
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:04,719
Speaker 1: they could avoid releasing some of the worst stuff that

959
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 1: mentioned Trump. And remember these are FBI three oh twos

960
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:13,239
Speaker 1: that are just allegations. They're not necessarily proven allegations, which

961
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 1: is what makes the entire release of these files so

962
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:19,240
Speaker 1: unpresident and frankly so uncomfortable for so many members of

963
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:22,120
Speaker 1: the Department of Justice. This is this is you know,

964
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:24,439
Speaker 1: many of you may think, hey, these all these men

965
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:27,120
Speaker 1: and women are involved in EPSTEIN, deserve to be shamed.

966
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:30,720
Speaker 1: I hear you. But there is sort of there, there

967
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:33,840
Speaker 1: is a discomfort. I think with some of these projects.

968
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 1: You're like, wait a minute, these are people that we

969
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:39,120
Speaker 1: don't have enough evidence to charge them with a crime,

970
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 1: but we're gonna We're gonna go ahead and essentially flood

971
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 1: the court of public opinion with evidence that people can

972
00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 1: cherry pick and choose. All that said, the fact that

973
00:57:55,400 --> 00:58:00,120
Speaker 1: they if you thought you were doing Trump a favor

974
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 1: by pulling it out only to get caught, now it's

975
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 1: going to get extra attention. It's very likely it would

976
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 1: have just been part of the three and a half

977
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:09,919
Speaker 1: million files, much harder for it to surface up. Of course,

978
00:58:09,920 --> 00:58:14,960
Speaker 1: people are going to pay attention. It's Trump. So I

979
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 1: wouldn't assume that any of the stuff that put it

980
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:23,000
Speaker 1: this way. This state of the Union is almost already

981
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:25,160
Speaker 1: it's already sort of played itself out. I think we

982
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 1: sort of know that it's already it is what it is.

983
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Marcus from Europe, and he says

984
00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 1: longtime listener from Switzerland and Germany. He says, I've always

985
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 1: appreciated how you go beyond the surface to explain the

986
00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:40,560
Speaker 1: inner workings of US politics. One thing I still struggle

987
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 1: to understand is when you reference America as well. From

988
00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 1: my perspective, places like Louisiana don't seem richer than most

989
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 1: European countries, and even Californians with high incomes often seem

990
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:51,960
Speaker 1: to struggle more than Europe's middle class. Does America's hire

991
00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:54,640
Speaker 1: GDP really translate to a better standard or living or

992
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 1: are the systems too different to compare meaningfully? Greetings from Europe.

993
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 1: I think cultures and somebody, you know, as aligned as

994
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:05,240
Speaker 1: we are, there are some things that were very different

995
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:12,520
Speaker 1: on right, Americans like their stuff, right, you know it.

996
00:59:12,680 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 1: Europeans the cities are smaller, people are more comfortable living

997
00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:22,000
Speaker 1: with less things, right, So you know, I've always thought

998
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:25,280
Speaker 1: that that's that's actually a difference that we don't you know,

999
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:30,520
Speaker 1: We're we want more land because we have the room, Right,

1000
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:34,360
Speaker 1: we want more stuff because we have the room. In

1001
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:37,840
Speaker 1: Europe and these tighter cities and these you know, people

1002
00:59:37,880 --> 00:59:40,800
Speaker 1: don't have the room. So it's sort of you might

1003
00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 1: make less money, but you may spend less because you

1004
00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 1: don't you just don't have the space to acquire more things.

1005
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 1: I know that seems like a but I think that's

1006
00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 1: why sometimes there's a disconnect on wealth of the you know,

1007
00:59:56,320 --> 01:00:01,320
Speaker 1: sort of middle class European living in in Frankfort and

1008
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:05,680
Speaker 1: the middle class American living in Sacramento or something like that. Right,

1009
01:00:05,760 --> 01:00:08,880
Speaker 1: So you know, I think that might have something to

1010
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:11,480
Speaker 1: do with it. So a little bit is cultural. You know,

1011
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:15,640
Speaker 1: we're just a culture of bigger houses. Now that may change, right,

1012
01:00:15,720 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 1: you may seem you know, it does feel like this

1013
01:00:18,720 --> 01:00:23,479
Speaker 1: gets you know, the boomers saved everything. My wife will say,

1014
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 1: I'm got hoarding tendencies when you look at all the

1015
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 1: sports cards that I have acquired, But I i'm you know,

1016
01:00:28,960 --> 01:00:30,640
Speaker 1: we've had dumpsters at the house, and we like to

1017
01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:35,080
Speaker 1: get rid of stuff. But gen z And definitely doesn't

1018
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:39,880
Speaker 1: want to save all this stuff the way our parents

1019
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:44,240
Speaker 1: and grandparents love to save stuff. So there may be

1020
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:48,800
Speaker 1: something akin to that as well. So that, you know,

1021
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:51,560
Speaker 1: I think we need an American to do what to

1022
01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 1: Tolkville did for explaining America to Europeans. Maybe maybe you

1023
01:00:57,720 --> 01:00:59,480
Speaker 1: know myself or somebody else needs to go and we

1024
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 1: need to explain how Europeans live to Americans today a

1025
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:12,440
Speaker 1: little bit. But appreciate the question. Marcus, thank you, And

1026
01:01:12,480 --> 01:01:15,840
Speaker 1: if you don't like my answer, right back and tell

1027
01:01:15,840 --> 01:01:17,760
Speaker 1: me if I've whiffed on this and you think I

1028
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:21,000
Speaker 1: got it wrong. Next question comes from Jason anyway, Hey,

1029
01:01:21,040 --> 01:01:23,120
Speaker 1: thanks for reading my comments last month about the barn.

1030
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:25,960
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. As I mentioned my prior email, I

1031
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:27,760
Speaker 1: now live in the Commonwealth, but live for a long

1032
01:01:27,800 --> 01:01:31,040
Speaker 1: time in Florida. Welcome to the Welcome to the club

1033
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:34,400
Speaker 1: of the Florida to Virginia pipeline. I continue to keep

1034
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:36,320
Speaker 1: up with the goings on there. And can you explain

1035
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:38,000
Speaker 1: how local governments are supposed to function that they get

1036
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:40,960
Speaker 1: rid of the property tax? Yes, Jason, I'm glad you

1037
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:44,160
Speaker 1: brought this up. So there's this idea and Ronda Santis

1038
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:48,479
Speaker 1: wants to do it, trying to essentially, and this gets

1039
01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:51,320
Speaker 1: it to you know, Donald Trump briefly mentioned in the

1040
01:01:51,320 --> 01:01:52,920
Speaker 1: State of the Union that he wants to go back

1041
01:01:52,960 --> 01:01:55,400
Speaker 1: to a system that where all of our taxation is

1042
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:59,920
Speaker 1: tariffs and we stop taxing income now. I am happy

1043
01:01:59,920 --> 01:02:02,400
Speaker 1: to do a Toddcast time machine explaining why we ended

1044
01:02:02,480 --> 01:02:05,280
Speaker 1: up with the income tax because tariffs did nothing but

1045
01:02:05,520 --> 01:02:08,240
Speaker 1: put the tax essentially put the tax burden of funding

1046
01:02:08,240 --> 01:02:11,480
Speaker 1: the government on the working class more than it put

1047
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:14,840
Speaker 1: it on the upper class. Well, Rondo Santis is kind

1048
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:17,640
Speaker 1: of has the same vision. He says, Hey, property, you know,

1049
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:19,960
Speaker 1: you shouldn't have to pay taxes on it all the time.

1050
01:02:20,000 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 1: You should only have to pay taxes on it, you know,

1051
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 1: once or maybe twice, once when you buy, once when

1052
01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:29,360
Speaker 1: you sell, and that's it. The problem is in a

1053
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:32,080
Speaker 1: state like Florida, which has no other income tax nor

1054
01:02:32,560 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 1: you know, there's only so many ways you can upcharge

1055
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:39,360
Speaker 1: and add fees to tourists. You know. Trust me, if

1056
01:02:39,400 --> 01:02:41,960
Speaker 1: you're not a resident of Florida and you check into

1057
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:45,680
Speaker 1: a hotel and rent a car, you wouldn't believe all

1058
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:50,120
Speaker 1: of the fees that you pay in order to subsidize

1059
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:53,720
Speaker 1: residents that live in the state of Florida in order

1060
01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 1: for them not to ever have a state income tax.

1061
01:02:57,480 --> 01:03:00,200
Speaker 1: I don't see how you pull it off, and you

1062
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:04,120
Speaker 1: probably only increase income inequality, and you will have you know,

1063
01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:06,320
Speaker 1: you take a look at some of these smaller counties.

1064
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:09,840
Speaker 1: I spend a lot of time in northwest Florida. Scambia County,

1065
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:15,160
Speaker 1: fairly large county, Santa Rosa County. The largest employers in

1066
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:17,600
Speaker 1: these counties, by the way, very red counties. The largest

1067
01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:20,720
Speaker 1: employers in these counties are usually the government school system,

1068
01:03:21,440 --> 01:03:25,439
Speaker 1: you know, other government agencies. Well, you you know, you're

1069
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:29,520
Speaker 1: you know, you start messing around with the property tax

1070
01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 1: system and the funding system. Where are they going to

1071
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:33,479
Speaker 1: get there? Where are they going to get their funds

1072
01:03:33,480 --> 01:03:35,160
Speaker 1: to run their government? And then all of a sudden,

1073
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:39,000
Speaker 1: you're gonna have who bunch of unemployed people. I don't

1074
01:03:39,080 --> 01:03:42,520
Speaker 1: think this is going to get as far as DeSantis

1075
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:45,919
Speaker 1: dreams on this. When it comes to property taxes, he's

1076
01:03:45,920 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 1: got to have to put it on a ballot initiative.

1077
01:03:48,120 --> 01:03:51,360
Speaker 1: So it's and it needs to in all ballot initiais

1078
01:03:51,400 --> 01:03:53,120
Speaker 1: in Florida have to get sixty percent, which is a

1079
01:03:53,120 --> 01:03:57,840
Speaker 1: pretty tall order, as we've learned. So I don't know

1080
01:03:57,880 --> 01:04:00,480
Speaker 1: how you do it. And I think, you know, now,

1081
01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:04,400
Speaker 1: maybe that's the feature. You know, I think Governor DeSantis

1082
01:04:04,440 --> 01:04:07,640
Speaker 1: would say, great, starve the beast. Right, this is the

1083
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:11,560
Speaker 1: starve the beast mindset that is taken over. The thing

1084
01:04:11,680 --> 01:04:14,200
Speaker 1: is is that there's general consensus. As I shared with

1085
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:17,080
Speaker 1: you in my last episode, seventy percent of the country

1086
01:04:17,120 --> 01:04:21,560
Speaker 1: does not think we should cut services to cut taxes. Right.

1087
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:24,520
Speaker 1: There is a large majority in this country that believes

1088
01:04:24,520 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 1: that we should have a safety net and believes that

1089
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:29,440
Speaker 1: there should be a well funded government. Okay, we can

1090
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:34,680
Speaker 1: debate on what size all that is, but there's general consensus.

1091
01:04:34,680 --> 01:04:37,720
Speaker 1: So the idea of starving the beast is only popular

1092
01:04:37,720 --> 01:04:40,480
Speaker 1: with about one in four voters. Three and four voters

1093
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:45,320
Speaker 1: have something government does that they think should keep going.

1094
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:48,880
Speaker 1: And I think that that's where you would have. And

1095
01:04:49,240 --> 01:04:53,280
Speaker 1: my guess is a referendum on this will actually get trounced.

1096
01:04:53,320 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 1: I don't think it would be that close. But maybe

1097
01:04:57,600 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 1: I haven't. Maybe I'm not spending enough time in Florida

1098
01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:04,360
Speaker 1: these days. All right, last question for the episode comes

1099
01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:08,480
Speaker 1: from Adam and Davy Florida. All right, Florida man, he goes.

1100
01:05:08,520 --> 01:05:10,840
Speaker 1: I really enjoy your podcast format. It provides great entertainment

1101
01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:16,960
Speaker 1: useful information simultaneously. All Right, I'm being called entertaining. Take

1102
01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:22,800
Speaker 1: that those of you who think I drone on too long. Anyway,

1103
01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:25,360
Speaker 1: He's quickly become my daily political podcast of choice. Thank

1104
01:05:25,400 --> 01:05:29,800
Speaker 1: you particularly appreciate your passionate modern institutionalist viewpoint, which I share. Texas,

1105
01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:32,040
Speaker 1: North Carolina both that March primaries. You know it, brother,

1106
01:05:32,520 --> 01:05:34,400
Speaker 1: after the votes locked in, do you think those House

1107
01:05:34,440 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 1: reps do begin to distance their self from Trump via

1108
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:39,920
Speaker 1: their own House votes? Any one or two that you

1109
01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:43,520
Speaker 1: think already have a foot out the door on trump Ism? Well,

1110
01:05:43,600 --> 01:05:45,880
Speaker 1: this is exactly what I'm going to be curious about,

1111
01:05:46,080 --> 01:05:48,880
Speaker 1: is that once primary season is over, do you see

1112
01:05:49,320 --> 01:05:52,960
Speaker 1: a change? Now? Look, North Carolina, Texas earn't a lot

1113
01:05:52,960 --> 01:05:56,320
Speaker 1: of hugely competitive races there. Let me get on this

1114
01:05:56,360 --> 01:06:00,600
Speaker 1: primary calendar. I you know, I'm I'm in I'm thinking

1115
01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:04,080
Speaker 1: it's going to be the Midwest is where I would

1116
01:06:04,120 --> 01:06:08,680
Speaker 1: be focused on. This memo to any organization that claims

1117
01:06:08,680 --> 01:06:10,320
Speaker 1: to have a primary calendar, do not put it in

1118
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:14,760
Speaker 1: alphabetical order. Please put it in chronocological chronological order. We

1119
01:06:14,840 --> 01:06:17,720
Speaker 1: do not. You know, it just drives me nuts that

1120
01:06:18,760 --> 01:06:22,920
Speaker 1: when some institutions use alphabetical order on something where you

1121
01:06:23,400 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 1: were dates is the whole thing that you're looking for.

1122
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:31,400
Speaker 1: Please chronological order, all right, So I think the first

1123
01:06:31,640 --> 01:06:34,000
Speaker 1: I think the first place that we might see some

1124
01:06:34,120 --> 01:06:38,760
Speaker 1: of this pushback. Oohy, I'm looking here. Look, obviously the

1125
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:43,080
Speaker 1: main nineteenth primaries, which is a pretty busy night of primaries.

1126
01:06:43,080 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 1: You're going to have Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania.

1127
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:50,320
Speaker 1: I think obviously that's the Thomas Massey primary, So that's

1128
01:06:50,360 --> 01:06:55,440
Speaker 1: going to be a big deal. Dan Crenshaw in Texas

1129
01:06:55,600 --> 01:06:57,680
Speaker 1: he would be a big one to watch if he

1130
01:06:57,720 --> 01:07:00,880
Speaker 1: gets through, if he is able to serve maybe there's

1131
01:07:00,880 --> 01:07:06,480
Speaker 1: no runoff. He wins without the support of Trump. Does

1132
01:07:06,520 --> 01:07:08,800
Speaker 1: he show that there is a way to do this

1133
01:07:08,920 --> 01:07:13,400
Speaker 1: and that you don't have anything to fear with him.

1134
01:07:13,440 --> 01:07:16,480
Speaker 1: But I still think that the Republicans that are most

1135
01:07:16,520 --> 01:07:18,600
Speaker 1: likely going to be looking for a way to break

1136
01:07:18,600 --> 01:07:21,080
Speaker 1: from Trump, at least on the tariff issue, it's going

1137
01:07:21,160 --> 01:07:25,520
Speaker 1: to be those with with with with important parts of

1138
01:07:25,560 --> 01:07:31,120
Speaker 1: the farm economy. So that's Iowa, perhaps that's Nebraska. Very

1139
01:07:31,160 --> 01:07:35,120
Speaker 1: curious how Pete Ricketts navigates this. Right. Don Bacon has

1140
01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:37,640
Speaker 1: been very you know, he's not running. It would have

1141
01:07:37,720 --> 01:07:40,200
Speaker 1: been more awkward if he had Bacon running for reelection

1142
01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:44,480
Speaker 1: and being critical of Trump on tariffs versus Pete Ricketts,

1143
01:07:44,560 --> 01:07:48,240
Speaker 1: who probably doesn't like the tariffs either, but is a

1144
01:07:48,800 --> 01:07:53,400
Speaker 1: you know, doesn't want to upset upset him. Does that

1145
01:07:53,600 --> 01:07:57,920
Speaker 1: change after they passed their primary, because Trump's gotten involved

1146
01:07:57,920 --> 01:08:02,120
Speaker 1: in primaries before in the RASCA, so that would be.

1147
01:08:02,160 --> 01:08:05,880
Speaker 1: But I just think the farm states generally are where

1148
01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:08,640
Speaker 1: I would expect the first folks to peel off, because

1149
01:08:08,640 --> 01:08:12,160
Speaker 1: it's the tariffs that I think are the safest place

1150
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:18,840
Speaker 1: to show some distance from Trump and not alienate the magabase.

1151
01:08:30,200 --> 01:08:34,120
Speaker 1: All Right, I've gone long. I know I've gone long,

1152
01:08:34,200 --> 01:08:37,720
Speaker 1: but I you know, I do have something to say

1153
01:08:37,720 --> 01:08:41,559
Speaker 1: about the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. And first

1154
01:08:41,560 --> 01:08:44,840
Speaker 1: of all, one of my favorite things every year is

1155
01:08:44,880 --> 01:08:47,640
Speaker 1: sort of the is the induction ceremony where they have

1156
01:08:47,760 --> 01:08:50,080
Speaker 1: these where all the artists get up there and they start,

1157
01:08:50,160 --> 01:08:52,280
Speaker 1: you know, doing something great, and some of them do it.

1158
01:08:52,360 --> 01:08:55,719
Speaker 1: Sometimes there's there's other artists come in and sing along

1159
01:08:55,760 --> 01:08:58,559
Speaker 1: with them. Some of them have been terrific live concerts.

1160
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:02,599
Speaker 1: I think the twenty fifth anniversary one is is one

1161
01:09:02,600 --> 01:09:07,600
Speaker 1: of those CDs that I own and then uploaded to

1162
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:11,639
Speaker 1: my Apple library. So I love the Rock and Roll

1163
01:09:11,640 --> 01:09:14,640
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame. I've been there multiple times in Cleveland.

1164
01:09:14,760 --> 01:09:18,120
Speaker 1: I think it's fantastic. My only complaint about the museum

1165
01:09:18,120 --> 01:09:21,360
Speaker 1: itself is not enough music playing. Like when I go

1166
01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:23,240
Speaker 1: room to room, I want to, I want to. I

1167
01:09:23,280 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 1: want the music curated for me. I don't want to

1168
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:27,720
Speaker 1: have to go and you know, do these But it's

1169
01:09:27,720 --> 01:09:30,880
Speaker 1: a museum, so I get that they've not quite figured

1170
01:09:30,920 --> 01:09:34,200
Speaker 1: that out. And of course the ceremony is never in Cleveland.

1171
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:36,800
Speaker 1: It's always now in New York, which is this? But

1172
01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:39,439
Speaker 1: here's my only beef, like the Rock and Roll Hall

1173
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:44,760
Speaker 1: of Fame that the nominees and we're seeing this this

1174
01:09:44,800 --> 01:09:49,760
Speaker 1: has increasingly been the case, right, our artists who you

1175
01:09:49,880 --> 01:09:54,000
Speaker 1: cannot find if you just search rock and roll on

1176
01:09:54,040 --> 01:09:58,280
Speaker 1: your favorite streaming music app Right, Like, all right, so

1177
01:09:58,320 --> 01:10:02,800
Speaker 1: Phil Collins as a solo artist, he's pop genesis, he

1178
01:10:02,880 --> 01:10:08,280
Speaker 1: had rock, Lauren Hill, Wu Tank Klang in excess. Are

1179
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:13,720
Speaker 1: they rock? Melissa Etherrich, Luther Vandros that's hard and b

1180
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:19,439
Speaker 1: that's not rock? Right, new addition, Shakira is that rock?

1181
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:22,160
Speaker 1: And I love me some Shakira, don't get me wrong.

1182
01:10:22,880 --> 01:10:26,880
Speaker 1: Now you have other nominees, Black Crows clearly rock, Iron

1183
01:10:26,920 --> 01:10:34,519
Speaker 1: Maiden clearly rock. But Mariah Carey, you know it's interesting

1184
01:10:34,560 --> 01:10:37,559
Speaker 1: I did. I did a little research with my friend

1185
01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:41,360
Speaker 1: mister Gemini, right just to just to see. I asked it.

1186
01:10:41,439 --> 01:10:45,439
Speaker 1: I said, hey, what genre are these artists in? And

1187
01:10:45,560 --> 01:10:49,440
Speaker 1: you actually find them in the rock genre of Spotify

1188
01:10:49,520 --> 01:10:52,719
Speaker 1: or Apple Music. So according to my friend mister Gemini,

1189
01:10:53,560 --> 01:10:57,400
Speaker 1: the true rockers, right, the safest, best for traditional that

1190
01:10:57,400 --> 01:11:00,840
Speaker 1: you'd actually find in your if you were listening, if

1191
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:05,000
Speaker 1: you're in if you're searching your genres of rock or metal, right,

1192
01:11:05,080 --> 01:11:10,360
Speaker 1: you'll get Iron Maiden, Oasis, the Black Crows. They put

1193
01:11:10,439 --> 01:11:14,800
Speaker 1: Melissa Etheridge in rock. Okay, you know I could be

1194
01:11:14,880 --> 01:11:18,479
Speaker 1: talked into that. I think she's more of a genre blender,

1195
01:11:18,560 --> 01:11:22,760
Speaker 1: if you will. Jeff Buckley, all right, Then they and

1196
01:11:22,800 --> 01:11:24,240
Speaker 1: then mister jem and I came up with what he

1197
01:11:24,320 --> 01:11:27,080
Speaker 1: called the genre blenders. They often have rock listed as

1198
01:11:27,080 --> 01:11:31,800
Speaker 1: a secondary genre or are also categorized as pop rock. Right,

1199
01:11:31,920 --> 01:11:35,400
Speaker 1: so more pop music depending on the album. Phil Collins

1200
01:11:35,520 --> 01:11:42,200
Speaker 1: is is pop rock in excess, primarily new wave. But

1201
01:11:42,240 --> 01:11:44,400
Speaker 1: then they come up with dance rock. I've never seen

1202
01:11:44,439 --> 01:11:47,200
Speaker 1: a genre of dance rock. Am I ignorant? Am I

1203
01:11:47,320 --> 01:11:53,040
Speaker 1: missing this this genre. If you will now punk I

1204
01:11:53,080 --> 01:11:55,960
Speaker 1: would do that. Then there's you know, those that were

1205
01:11:56,320 --> 01:11:58,960
Speaker 1: with it that have no rock tags on their songs.

1206
01:11:59,000 --> 01:12:02,599
Speaker 1: Even in the secondary line. According to mister Gemini, Wu

1207
01:12:02,680 --> 01:12:05,559
Speaker 1: Tang Clan, Lauren Hill, they're exclusively hip hop and rat

1208
01:12:05,640 --> 01:12:11,320
Speaker 1: Mariah Carey, Pink Shakira primarily pop, though this notes that

1209
01:12:11,360 --> 01:12:14,120
Speaker 1: Pink occasionally gets a pop rock tag for early two

1210
01:12:14,160 --> 01:12:18,120
Speaker 1: thousand work obviously Luther Vandros the New Edition R and

1211
01:12:18,160 --> 01:12:22,639
Speaker 1: B and soul and you have shut A usually tagged

1212
01:12:22,640 --> 01:12:29,439
Speaker 1: this soul or jazz. So look, it's interesting. The first

1213
01:12:29,439 --> 01:12:32,120
Speaker 1: time nominees. We don't know who's going to get in.

1214
01:12:32,680 --> 01:12:35,920
Speaker 1: The First time nominees this year are Phil Collins, Lauryn Hill,

1215
01:12:35,920 --> 01:12:39,759
Speaker 1: Wu Tang Clan, Jeff Buckley, in Excess, Melissa Ethlerts, Lucier Vandros,

1216
01:12:40,040 --> 01:12:43,840
Speaker 1: New Edition, Pink Shakira. Phil Collins is going to get in.

1217
01:12:44,880 --> 01:12:48,720
Speaker 1: Genesis is already in. Phil Collins has health issues. I

1218
01:12:48,840 --> 01:12:51,080
Speaker 1: promise you Phil Collins is going to get in. They're

1219
01:12:51,120 --> 01:12:54,599
Speaker 1: gonna won him at that ceremony there now. Second time

1220
01:12:55,920 --> 01:13:00,000
Speaker 1: haven't gotten in yet, Black Crows, Billy Idle not in yet.

1221
01:13:00,360 --> 01:13:05,080
Speaker 1: Shot Eh Billy Idol, Come on, we gotta put him in.

1222
01:13:05,920 --> 01:13:09,639
Speaker 1: I think he belongs. And then the third time nominee

1223
01:13:09,680 --> 01:13:11,720
Speaker 1: who haven't gotten in. They've been nominated three times, still

1224
01:13:11,720 --> 01:13:16,240
Speaker 1: haven't gotten the call. Iron Maiden. I was kind of

1225
01:13:16,240 --> 01:13:18,880
Speaker 1: into metal. Iron Maiden was never at the top of

1226
01:13:18,920 --> 01:13:22,599
Speaker 1: my list. I respect I respect their damn don't get

1227
01:13:22,600 --> 01:13:27,439
Speaker 1: me wrong, Oasis. I gotta pull for Oasis. It's my

1228
01:13:27,600 --> 01:13:31,479
Speaker 1: son's favorite nineties band. He thinks Oasis, he goes, okay,

1229
01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:33,920
Speaker 1: he thinks it's one of the best bands he's ever

1230
01:13:33,960 --> 01:13:37,680
Speaker 1: heard in the nineties. Don't judge him too harshly on that.

1231
01:13:37,800 --> 01:13:40,240
Speaker 1: Now I have kid, I think Oasis is touring again,

1232
01:13:40,280 --> 01:13:43,000
Speaker 1: and I think mom and son, we're gonna go check

1233
01:13:43,040 --> 01:13:47,680
Speaker 1: that one out. New order in Mariah Carey also in

1234
01:13:47,760 --> 01:13:52,200
Speaker 1: the third time. But Mariah Carey, I first of all,

1235
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:56,360
Speaker 1: this is where Mariah Carey belongs. In a Hall of

1236
01:13:56,479 --> 01:14:03,960
Speaker 1: fame of music hard stop? Right? Is it rock? Do

1237
01:14:04,000 --> 01:14:05,920
Speaker 1: we need to rename this Hall of fame and just

1238
01:14:06,000 --> 01:14:10,520
Speaker 1: call it popular music Hall of Fame because that's essentially

1239
01:14:10,560 --> 01:14:13,840
Speaker 1: what we've done. And you know, look, I'm a I

1240
01:14:13,880 --> 01:14:15,800
Speaker 1: don't want to call myself a rock purist, but I

1241
01:14:15,920 --> 01:14:18,720
Speaker 1: miss rock and roll. I don't think we have rock

1242
01:14:18,760 --> 01:14:22,280
Speaker 1: and roll anymore. Right, there are no rock bands anymore

1243
01:14:22,479 --> 01:14:25,280
Speaker 1: any I miss the electric guitar. The only place you

1244
01:14:25,280 --> 01:14:28,040
Speaker 1: can find good electric guitar riffs these days is in

1245
01:14:28,120 --> 01:14:31,720
Speaker 1: country music. And it's interesting. It's like what we used

1246
01:14:31,760 --> 01:14:35,160
Speaker 1: to call southern rock has almost all become country rock,

1247
01:14:35,520 --> 01:14:38,040
Speaker 1: if you will, and you see a lot more of

1248
01:14:38,080 --> 01:14:40,840
Speaker 1: it there, so I you know, and that would have

1249
01:14:40,880 --> 01:14:44,599
Speaker 1: been my way, but I'd love Look, we are all

1250
01:14:45,120 --> 01:14:47,559
Speaker 1: experts about our own music tastes, so I'm not going

1251
01:14:47,640 --> 01:14:49,479
Speaker 1: to sit here and claim I'm an expert. I have

1252
01:14:49,520 --> 01:14:52,920
Speaker 1: a very eclectic music taste as a one time music

1253
01:14:52,920 --> 01:14:58,200
Speaker 1: major in college. I will put my are my musical

1254
01:14:58,479 --> 01:15:02,840
Speaker 1: knowledge up against anybody on that front. But I'd love

1255
01:15:02,880 --> 01:15:06,439
Speaker 1: to hear from you guys on this of what's your

1256
01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:09,800
Speaker 1: definition of rock? Have we had a great new rock

1257
01:15:09,840 --> 01:15:12,880
Speaker 1: band since The Killers? You know? Part of me feels

1258
01:15:12,920 --> 01:15:15,679
Speaker 1: like that, you know, And are we done with rock

1259
01:15:16,000 --> 01:15:21,000
Speaker 1: the genre itself? Or is there a chance it comes back?

1260
01:15:21,080 --> 01:15:24,840
Speaker 1: Does Jen Alpha bring it back? For some reason? Now,

1261
01:15:24,960 --> 01:15:27,760
Speaker 1: I've heard other people argue that rock isn't necessarily a

1262
01:15:27,800 --> 01:15:32,080
Speaker 1: style of music. It is a it is are you do.

1263
01:15:32,120 --> 01:15:34,360
Speaker 1: You have something to say? It is you know that

1264
01:15:35,280 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 1: the whole point of rock music was to make the

1265
01:15:38,439 --> 01:15:42,000
Speaker 1: older crowd and the establishment uncomfortable. And that's that's why

1266
01:15:42,840 --> 01:15:47,000
Speaker 1: hip hop qualifies as rock and roll, because like rock

1267
01:15:47,000 --> 01:15:48,960
Speaker 1: and roll of the fifties and sixties, which was a

1268
01:15:48,960 --> 01:15:53,160
Speaker 1: disruptive music genre, so too has hip hop and rap

1269
01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:57,120
Speaker 1: been a disruptive music genre for the so called establishment.

1270
01:15:58,800 --> 01:16:02,360
Speaker 1: You know, that's a very expansive definition of of rock

1271
01:16:02,400 --> 01:16:05,240
Speaker 1: and roll, but I still view it as an actual

1272
01:16:05,360 --> 01:16:10,519
Speaker 1: music genre, so in that sense, And I think the

1273
01:16:10,680 --> 01:16:14,800
Speaker 1: last rock band that I downloaded and was digging was

1274
01:16:14,840 --> 01:16:20,320
Speaker 1: Modest Mouse. All right, I would love some suggestions from you, guys.

1275
01:16:20,360 --> 01:16:23,600
Speaker 1: Am I am, I totally. You know. One of my

1276
01:16:23,680 --> 01:16:27,320
Speaker 1: frustrations with with algorithms and streaming services now is that

1277
01:16:27,840 --> 01:16:30,559
Speaker 1: even if you try to get new music, it feels

1278
01:16:30,640 --> 01:16:32,639
Speaker 1: like it's always trying to figure out what they think

1279
01:16:32,680 --> 01:16:35,880
Speaker 1: your taste is, and you get sort of curated new

1280
01:16:35,920 --> 01:16:38,800
Speaker 1: stuff that feels you're like, no, no, no, no, no, I

1281
01:16:39,360 --> 01:16:42,680
Speaker 1: don't I don't want that. So I used to have

1282
01:16:42,720 --> 01:16:45,120
Speaker 1: a lot of younger nieces and nephews and cousins who

1283
01:16:45,200 --> 01:16:48,800
Speaker 1: were pretty good about keeping me up to date. I

1284
01:16:48,800 --> 01:16:52,720
Speaker 1: wanted to know what was the interesting new music and

1285
01:16:52,760 --> 01:16:56,280
Speaker 1: I missed that. You know. I got my son. He's

1286
01:16:56,280 --> 01:16:58,799
Speaker 1: not listening to new music. He's going back old school

1287
01:16:59,360 --> 01:17:03,360
Speaker 1: and he's he's into the nineties. I got a swiftie

1288
01:17:03,680 --> 01:17:05,800
Speaker 1: that's a senior in college, and I'll just leave the

1289
01:17:05,920 --> 01:17:11,640
Speaker 1: you know. And Taylor is who she is. But I

1290
01:17:11,680 --> 01:17:16,519
Speaker 1: don't know if my daughter is ready to leave the

1291
01:17:16,560 --> 01:17:20,000
Speaker 1: Swifty Nation to keep pursuing other interesting new music. So

1292
01:17:21,520 --> 01:17:23,559
Speaker 1: I would love your thoughts on this. But yes, I

1293
01:17:23,600 --> 01:17:27,200
Speaker 1: think the big story out of this nomination is I

1294
01:17:27,280 --> 01:17:31,840
Speaker 1: suspect Phil Collins, who again Jenesis is already in, so

1295
01:17:31,920 --> 01:17:34,920
Speaker 1: I don't know is he already in? And now he'll

1296
01:17:34,920 --> 01:17:37,679
Speaker 1: be in as a solo artist, but I think that'll

1297
01:17:37,680 --> 01:17:42,000
Speaker 1: be a pretty poignant moment, assuming he does get the call,

1298
01:17:42,120 --> 01:17:45,200
Speaker 1: which I suspect he will. All Right, So because I

1299
01:17:45,240 --> 01:17:47,800
Speaker 1: have a podcast, I can have random opinions about anything

1300
01:17:47,840 --> 01:17:49,960
Speaker 1: I feel like having, and I decided to have some

1301
01:17:50,080 --> 01:17:52,519
Speaker 1: random opinions about the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

1302
01:17:52,600 --> 01:17:56,000
Speaker 1: All right, that Enjurir weekend. I'll see in seventy two hours.

1303
01:17:56,320 --> 01:17:59,000
Speaker 1: And guess what, when I see you next time, we

1304
01:17:59,040 --> 01:18:01,760
Speaker 1: are going to be the eve of the start of

1305
01:18:01,880 --> 01:18:06,519
Speaker 1: campaign twenty twenty six. Officially, this is this is where

1306
01:18:06,520 --> 01:18:09,240
Speaker 1: I this is this is my sweet spot, this is

1307
01:18:09,280 --> 01:18:12,400
Speaker 1: what I love. This is why you tune in. I'll

1308
01:18:12,400 --> 01:18:13,240
Speaker 1: see after the weekend