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Speaker 1: The volume. All right, welcome to him tonight here at

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Speaker 1: the Volume Heavy Thursday. Everybody, hope Bob, you guys are

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Speaker 1: having a great week. Got a quick show for you

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Speaker 1: guys today. We're just doing two segments. We're gonna do

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Speaker 1: a deep dive into the Houston Rockets. Off the top.

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Speaker 1: They had a dominant win last night in Cleveland. Got

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Speaker 1: a little squirrely there in the early part of the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter, but they were able to regain control. I

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Speaker 1: want to deep dive into three specific concepts surrounding Houston

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Speaker 1: that I think are really important both in the short

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Speaker 1: term and in the long term for what we can

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Speaker 1: expect from them, both as a contender, but also in

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Speaker 1: terms of what their big picture potential is. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: get really into the weeds on Houston today. Then at

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Speaker 1: the tail end of the show, we had a couple

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Speaker 1: of bits of news. Steve Kurt was complaining about the

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Speaker 1: schedule after the Golden State Warriors have played seventeen games

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Speaker 1: in twenty eight days, including five back to backs to

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Speaker 1: start the season, as they basically punted a game in

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Speaker 1: Miami last night. And then we got an announcement that

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Speaker 1: Adam Silver is basically ordered an investigation into the rise

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Speaker 1: in injuries and how the schedule could potentially be playing

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Speaker 1: a role there. So it seems like the league is

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Speaker 1: just barely starting to crack the door open towards the

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Speaker 1: idea of potentially addressing some stuff with the schedule, and

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Speaker 1: so I want to dive into some specific ideas behind

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Speaker 1: what direction I think the league should be going with

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Speaker 1: the schedule. How I think that it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a lot more beneficial for the league financially than you

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Speaker 1: would think on the surface, because obviously everyone is obsessed

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Speaker 1: with revenue surrounding the amount of inventory they have. I

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Speaker 1: really want to dive into the idea of this schedule

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Speaker 1: at the tail end of the show. You guys have

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Speaker 1: the job before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops

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Speaker 1: and I YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of

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Speaker 1: our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt

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Speaker 1: so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about

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Speaker 1: a podcast feed where you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight.

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Speaker 1: It's always super helpful you leave a rating and a

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Speaker 1: review on that front. Jackson's doing amazing work on all

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Speaker 1: of our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you guys follow us there for more content

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Speaker 1: throughout the year, and then tomorrow's mail bag day. So

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Speaker 1: if you want to get into any of the other

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Speaker 1: games from this week that we didn't get a chance

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Speaker 1: to touch on, or if you want to have an

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Speaker 1: opportunity to ask a question about anything around the league

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Speaker 1: or anything at all, get it into the YouTube comments

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Speaker 1: today again anywhere in the full episodes on YouTube in

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Speaker 1: the comments right mail bag colon, write your question. It

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Speaker 1: helps me sort them out when I'm looking through the comments,

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Speaker 1: and we'll get to them in tomorrow's mail bag. And then, lastly,

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Speaker 1: our next playback stream for this week. Our last playback

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Speaker 1: stream for this week is going to be tomorrow night

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Speaker 1: for a showdown between the Denver Nuggets and the Houston Rockets,

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Speaker 1: a game I'm very very excited for. We will be

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Speaker 1: covering that game, watching along from start to finish on

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Speaker 1: playback tomorrow night. Make sure you guys come hang out

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Speaker 1: for that. All right, let's talk some basketball. So, Houston

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Speaker 1: looks pretty dominant last night against the Cavs in Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: Went up twenty in the first half, basically dominated every

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Speaker 1: face of the game, Cleveland looked completely unprepared for their

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Speaker 1: offensive rebounding attack. The guy that was screaming off the

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Speaker 1: screen for me as I was watching was DeAndre Hunter.

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Speaker 1: Is like, when you're dealing with a big, physical frontline

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Speaker 1: that's trying to crash the glass a lot a lot

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Speaker 1: of times you can box out to try to keep

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Speaker 1: a guy attached to the ground, But when it's Steven

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Speaker 1: Adams or some of these other bigs that Houston has,

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Speaker 1: you got a sandwich rebound, meaning you got to have

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Speaker 1: as you're boxing out, you're holding a guy on the ground, right,

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Speaker 1: you gotta have someone come flying in over the top

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Speaker 1: to come secure the rebound. And way too often, in particular,

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Speaker 1: I thought DeAndre Hunter was a spectator, just kind of

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Speaker 1: standing around while that fistfight for rebounds was happening around

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Speaker 1: the basket. And Jared Allen in many cases in there

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Speaker 1: boxing out for his life, and even in situations where

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Speaker 1: he was boxing out he was getting beat over the top.

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Speaker 1: Every time he stepped over and help Steven Adams or

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Speaker 1: Clint Capello would just come over and clean things up.

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Speaker 1: The Cavs just so completely unprepared for it. It was

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Speaker 1: a twenty one to six second chance points advantage for

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Speaker 1: the Houston Rockets. And we're gonna dig much deeper into

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Speaker 1: this concept of offensive rebounding for Houston, how it works,

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Speaker 1: how it provides spacing, the kind of problems it presents

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Speaker 1: to teams, what it means for playoff matchups. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: get all into that here in just a minute. Shane

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Speaker 1: Gouon absolutely torched them twenty eight points, eleven rebounds, and

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Speaker 1: seven assists. He looked super comfortable attacking different mismatches and

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Speaker 1: switches like he did a bunch of work against Lonzo

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Speaker 1: Ball and switches against Dean Wade in switches, also did

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Speaker 1: some damage to the Cavs starting frontline. We're going to

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Speaker 1: do a deep dive into Shanegon as well. I thought

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Speaker 1: the Rockets defended super well. Their bigs did a great

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Speaker 1: job making multiple efforts at the rim, like Steven Adams

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Speaker 1: would blitz Donovan Mitchell but then sprint back and somehow

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Speaker 1: get a contest on Jared Allen at the rim and

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Speaker 1: force a miss. Kevin Durant had an extra rotation to

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Speaker 1: Jared Allen at the rim that forced to miss. Shane

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Speaker 1: Goon forced a miss for Jared Allen around the rim.

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Speaker 1: A lot of misses around the rim for Cleveland's bigs

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Speaker 1: just because of that those extra rotation efforts that the

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Speaker 1: bigger forwards and centers for Houston that was making around

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Speaker 1: the basket. And by the way, they are tenth according

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Speaker 1: to Synergy in rim makes allowed per game and twelve

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Speaker 1: in rim percentage allowed. So some strong paint defense from

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Speaker 1: Houston to start this season. They came out blitzing Donovan Mitchell.

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Speaker 1: They lost control of him a little bit in the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter, but for the most part, I thought they

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Speaker 1: defended him super well. And then on defense, you know,

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Speaker 1: Cleveland likes to attempt a lot of threes, but you

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Speaker 1: can do some work with the types of guys that

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Speaker 1: you leave open to kind of skew those percentages, and

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Speaker 1: I thought Houston did a great job of leaving the

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Speaker 1: right guys open. They would let Lonzo shoot by going

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Speaker 1: underscreens or closing out short because he's been shooting in

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Speaker 1: the low thirties from three this year. Naykwon Tomlins is

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Speaker 1: really interesting athletic fod that does a lot of work

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Speaker 1: on the offensive glass and is kind of just a

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Speaker 1: high motor athlete that flies around, but he's not a

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Speaker 1: guy that's going to burn you from the three point line.

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Speaker 1: They let Na Kwon Tomlin shoot, they let Evan Mobley shoot,

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Speaker 1: and so even though Cleveland got thirty nine threes up,

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Speaker 1: they were mostly threes that Houston was willing to live with,

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Speaker 1: and they worked out in Houston's favor in the percentage

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Speaker 1: as they got a comfortable win. Basically wire to wire

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Speaker 1: big picture Houston concepts that I want to dive into today.

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Speaker 1: We've fit several things throughout the season. We talked about

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Speaker 1: the Kevin Durant Albert Shangun kind of dynamic in terms

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Speaker 1: of those two stars, their ability to play with each

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Speaker 1: other and without each other. I want to focus though

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Speaker 1: on their offensive, rebounding attack, what it does to teams,

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Speaker 1: how effectively it acts as spacing for their stars, the

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Speaker 1: matchup problem it presents. Two, what is Albern shang Gun's ceiling.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's a guy who's been in the league

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Speaker 1: for five years, so he's been around for so long

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Speaker 1: that it kind of feels like he's older. But he's

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Speaker 1: only twenty three years old, like, and I think he's

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Speaker 1: barely scratching the surface of his potential. So I want

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Speaker 1: to talk about what Albern Shanggun can become. And then, third,

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Speaker 1: what can we make of this recent surge from Reed

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Speaker 1: Shepherd who's had double figure scoring in seven consecutive games,

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Speaker 1: And most importantly, I was skeptical about him as an

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Speaker 1: on ball player, but more quality on ball reps last

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Speaker 1: night against the Caves, and he's starting to put together

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Speaker 1: a decent little set of on ball data to start

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Speaker 1: the season. So those are the three different topics that

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Speaker 1: I want to dive into with Houston today, starting with

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Speaker 1: the offensive rebounding. Before the season, we were so obsessed

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Speaker 1: with the idea of spacing for this Houston team, right,

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Speaker 1: Like we talked about how life was going to be

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Speaker 1: harder for Kevin Durant because they were going to be

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Speaker 1: pinching in off the corners NonStop, and like, would they

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Speaker 1: be able to achieve high low spacing with a men

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Speaker 1: Thompson and Alburn shangun basically meaning like one of those

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Speaker 1: guys in the middle of the floor, one of those

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Speaker 1: guys working along the baseline, would they be able to

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Speaker 1: achieve the tic tac toe sequences that could pay off

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Speaker 1: with dunks and like easy shots in the just short

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Speaker 1: of the front of the rim, right, Like, will they

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Speaker 1: be able to figure out those elements of their spacing?

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Speaker 1: How will their shooters perform like well Jabari Smith knockdown shots, well,

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Speaker 1: Josha Koge knockdown shots, well, Tarry Easton knockdown shots, Will

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Speaker 1: Amen Thompson knockdown shots. Like all these different concepts that

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Speaker 1: we focused on regarding spacing, and to be clear, all

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Speaker 1: of that is actually working out really well for Houston.

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Speaker 1: Like their high low spacing has been incredible. We've seen

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Speaker 1: plenty of those tic tac toe sequences where Shanegun catches

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Speaker 1: in the middle of the floor and hits the men

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Speaker 1: Thompson cutting on the baseline or vice versa. We've seen

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Speaker 1: guys shooting the three ball really well, like Houston sneaky

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Speaker 1: been a very good jump shooting team. Tari Easton's shooting

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Speaker 1: fifty one percent from three, Jabari Smith is shooting thirty

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Speaker 1: nine percent. Really if you look at their core rotation players,

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Speaker 1: basically everybody is shooting thirty eight percent or better with

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Speaker 1: exception of Aman Thompson, and for the most part he's

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Speaker 1: operating in the middle of the floor and in the

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Speaker 1: dunker spot. He's only taken about two threes per game.

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Speaker 1: And so like the jump shooting hasn't been an issue.

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Speaker 1: In fact, the Rockets have been number one in the

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Speaker 1: league in both just plain old three point percentage but

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Speaker 1: also an overall jump shooting efficiency according to Synergy, even

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Speaker 1: when you include mid Rangers and off the dribble jump shots,

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Speaker 1: they've been the best jump shooting team in the league.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm not sure how sustainable that is. They certainly

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Speaker 1: aren't on paper the best jump shooting roster in the league.

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Speaker 1: So ultimately the determining factor of whether or not they

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Speaker 1: can remain the best offense in the Like they got

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Speaker 1: a one twenty three offensive rating, they're the best offense

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Speaker 1: in the league. Whether or not they can stay there,

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Speaker 1: you know, as surprisingly as they have been able to

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Speaker 1: reach that level, whether or not they can stay there

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Speaker 1: is going to come down to whether or not that

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Speaker 1: jump shooting can sustain. But a lot of those spacing

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Speaker 1: concepts that we talked about before the season have actually

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Speaker 1: trended very heavily in the post positive direction for Houston.

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Speaker 1: But where I think we all underestimated the Rockets in

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Speaker 1: terms of their spacing was offensive rebounding. And this is

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Speaker 1: where we have to kind of redefine spacing as a

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Speaker 1: very simple concept instead of thinking of it as like

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Speaker 1: vertical spacing like a dunker around the basket, or three

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Speaker 1: point spacing a guy knocking down three point shots, or

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Speaker 1: other like a little like more complicated spacing concepts like

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Speaker 1: driving closeouts or converting four on threes into dunks, layups

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Speaker 1: and open threes. You know, when you blitz ball handlers,

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Speaker 1: or you bring your big up to the level. Things

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Speaker 1: like that. Those are those basic spacing concepts that we

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Speaker 1: talk about all the time. But that's not the only

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Speaker 1: way to make a team pay for sending extra attention

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Speaker 1: to your stars. You can do it by getting offensive rebounds.

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Speaker 1: And this is where the rockets can cause serious problems

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Speaker 1: for teams who think about the game in a very

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Speaker 1: traditional way. On the defensive end of the floor, let's

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Speaker 1: start with Steven Adams. So the most common type of

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Speaker 1: traditional help defense that you'll see from teams is to

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Speaker 1: have their big man step over and help. He's typically

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Speaker 1: not gonna leave a three point shooter open because most

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Speaker 1: bigs in the league can't shoot. You don't see very

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Speaker 1: many big bruising centers around. There's a handful of him.

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Speaker 1: There's not a ton of big bruising centers. So you

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Speaker 1: feel like your backside guys can control the glass and

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Speaker 1: I'll often the big will step up to contest, but

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Speaker 1: then try to get back and box out. And so

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Speaker 1: it's one of those things where you're big is typically

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Speaker 1: the guy you're helping with. First, he's already situated around

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Speaker 1: the basket because his man is usually already in the

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Speaker 1: dunker spot. He's not leaving a three point shot open, right.

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Speaker 1: He's a rim protector, right because he's big and he's

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Speaker 1: got long arms, So he's gonna be a guy that

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Speaker 1: like when he helps, he's actually gonna be a rim

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Speaker 1: to turn it. Like there was a play last night

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Speaker 1: where Donovan Mitchell ended up being a low man for

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Speaker 1: Cleveland and he end up giving up an easy layup.

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Speaker 1: Like Donovan Mitchell, if he's standing under the basket and

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Speaker 1: help isn't gonna do much to deter players at the rim. Right.

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Speaker 1: You want your big man deterring stuff at the rim,

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Speaker 1: because that's the kind of guy that's actually gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to cause rim misses. That's traditional defense. You want

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Speaker 1: your big stepping over to help, right. But as soon

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Speaker 1: as your big man steps over, this is where the

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Speaker 1: rockets kill you. And Steven Adams had like three offensive

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Speaker 1: rebounds in the first like sixty seconds ninety seconds of

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Speaker 1: the game because Jared Allen was stepping over in help.

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Speaker 1: And when you step over and help, Steven Adams is

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Speaker 1: just mashing your back line on the glass for offensive rebounds.

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Speaker 1: He's getting over five offensive rebounds a game, and so

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Speaker 1: this puts you in a bind. If you keep your

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Speaker 1: big home on Adams, you cause two problems. One, Steven

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Speaker 1: Adams is still probably bigger and stronger than your center,

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Speaker 1: and he's gonna win that battle many times, so sometimes

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Speaker 1: it doesn't even solve the problem. And then two, you

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Speaker 1: start leaving these one on one players, these ridiculously talented

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Speaker 1: one on one players and Albert Shangun and Kevin Durant

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Speaker 1: to play on an island without help that can torch you.

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Speaker 1: And so then if you keep helping with your big

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Speaker 1: then you really have to sandwich rebound on Adams. You

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Speaker 1: got to have somebody in there, big four to box

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Speaker 1: him out, to try to keep him on the ground,

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Speaker 1: because remember it's very difficult to jump when a guy's

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Speaker 1: leaning on you, right, So you can keep Steven Adams

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Speaker 1: ground bound by boxing him out, But then you also

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Speaker 1: have to have that sandwich rebounder come over because Steven

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Speaker 1: Adams is bigger, so if he just holds the guy down,

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Speaker 1: he's gonna go get the rebound, right, So you got

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Speaker 1: to have these other dudes come flying in to come

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Speaker 1: snatch the rebound over the top of Steven Adams. Now

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Speaker 1: you're putting two effectively on Steven Adams, right. So if

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Speaker 1: I have two on the ball essentially in the form

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Speaker 1: of the guy guarding Kevin Durant or the guy guarding Shangun,

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Speaker 1: and I have a big stepping over to help on

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Speaker 1: that Iso, and I have a Ford boxing out Adams,

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Speaker 1: and I've got a fourth dude coming over trying to

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Speaker 1: scrap over the top with Adams. Now I've got basically

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Speaker 1: a four on two rebounding advantage for Houston. Elsewhere on

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Speaker 1: the floor, that's where their corner crashers come in. That's

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Speaker 1: where a men Thompson's getting rebounds out of the dunker spot.

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Speaker 1: That's where Josha Kogi and Tari Easton are crashing out

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Speaker 1: of the corner with their textbook corner crashes. This is

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Speaker 1: where Jabari Smith has been doing damage on the offensive glass.

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Speaker 1: When you start to devote attention to guarding Shanguon and

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Speaker 1: Kevin Durant while also dealing with Steven Adams on the

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Speaker 1: offensive glass, you're just always a man down, sometimes two

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Speaker 1: men down, trying to secure offensive rebounds. From corner crashers

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Speaker 1: and guys crashing out of the dunker spot like a

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Speaker 1: Men Thompson. It just puts you in an absolute mind,

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Speaker 1: and you know, it reminds me, you know, when we

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Speaker 1: look at some of the great teams in recent NBA

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Speaker 1: history that have one with kind of bizarre basketball, right,

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Speaker 1: Like think about you know, Golden State traditionally, right this

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Speaker 1: team that runs all this crazy action. You've got the

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Speaker 1: shooter running around and inverture spacing because you start sending

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Speaker 1: multiple defenders out to Steph twenty five feet from the basket.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, it starts opening up all these

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Speaker 1: layups and dunks for Golden State because the big man

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Speaker 1: is way out at the level showing on Steph. So

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Speaker 1: you don't have your big man on the back line.

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Speaker 1: So now you got these small guys who are both

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Speaker 1: undersized but also dealing with a man down advantage because

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Speaker 1: Golden State's running four on three. Causes all sorts of

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Speaker 1: problems for you. Right. We talk about Denver and the

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Speaker 1: weird thing that they can do to defense is like

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Speaker 1: you've got to guard Jokic and he's operating around by

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Speaker 1: the elbow or the top of the key a ton.

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Speaker 1: So now your big is out dealing with Jokic far

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Speaker 1: away from the basket, which is inverting spacing and causing

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Speaker 1: all these openings on the back line for cutters like

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Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon and Christian Brown, and they're just eviscerating you

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Speaker 1: with layups and dunks off of the back line, and

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Speaker 1: you help on those layups and dunks, and all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, Michael Porter Junior is getting a wide open

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Speaker 1: three right Like we see these weird teams that come

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Speaker 1: and play a weird style and it causes problems. The

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Speaker 1: Milwaukee Bucks back in their absolute prime. The combination of

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Speaker 1: Jannis Antenna Kumpo's ridiculous rim pressure, you got to build

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Speaker 1: a massive wall that's very different than your traditional defensive scheme.

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Speaker 1: It causes problems right on the defensive end of the floor.

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Speaker 1: Jannis has a low man off of Brook Lopez and

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Speaker 1: his ability to basically be two places at once, essentially

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Speaker 1: to be at the rim behind the Brook Lopez, but

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Speaker 1: also back out to the corner to contest corner threes

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Speaker 1: or and if he cuts along the baseline, he's athletic

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Speaker 1: enough to recover. It can break you right when you

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Speaker 1: do something that's so bizarre, that's so different that it

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Speaker 1: breaks your base defense. Then, even if you end up

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Speaker 1: in this playoff matchup, it sometimes can take two or

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Speaker 1: three games for you to adjust from playing traditional basketball

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Speaker 1: against twenty seven of the thirty teams to suddenly having

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Speaker 1: to play a very different style against a very different

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Speaker 1: type of team. And to me, Houston is like the

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Speaker 1: next team in this line of thinking. Right, in this

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Speaker 1: kind of concept of playing weird, non traditional basketball, you

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Speaker 1: essentially can't play your traditional style because if you do,

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Speaker 1: they're just going to mash you on the offensive class.

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Speaker 1: And so it forces you to make some really difficult decisions.

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Speaker 1: You basically have to pick your poison. Do you want

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Speaker 1: to devote more energy to helping on the stars, Well,

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Speaker 1: that's going to cause problems for you on the glass.

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Speaker 1: Do you want to send all your resources to controlling

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Speaker 1: the defensive class, Well, now you're letting Kevin de Ranton

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Speaker 1: albernsche Gon operate on an island. There's more trickle down

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Speaker 1: effects because like, guess what if you have all five

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Speaker 1: of your dudes trying to stay back to secure defensive rebounds,

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Speaker 1: that dampens your transition attack because now instead of running

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Speaker 1: the floor for layups and threes and all the transition

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Speaker 1: stuff that everyone else in the league is doing. You're

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Speaker 1: staying in the backcourt trying to deal with Steven Adams

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Speaker 1: and Jabari Smith and Josha Kogie and a Men Thompson

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Speaker 1: on the offensive glass. Houston allows transition pushes so far

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Speaker 1: this season on just fourteen point six percent of opponents possessions,

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Speaker 1: which is the sixth the best mark in the league

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Speaker 1: according to Cleaning the Glass. That's one of those positive

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Speaker 1: side effects of their offensive rebounding. They bludgeon you. You

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Speaker 1: react by sending all your resources to the defensive glass.

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Speaker 1: Now you're not getting out in transition, which, by the way,

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Speaker 1: is one of the best ways to attack a big,

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Speaker 1: slow team. But if they're winning that battle so much

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Speaker 1: on the offensive glass that you're not running, it defeats

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Speaker 1: the purpose. It's just a fascinating example of how a

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Speaker 1: team's bizarre play style can cause problems for everybody, and

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Speaker 1: it's a casual reminder that there are many ways to

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Speaker 1: win a basketball game. Basketball is more art than science.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to win it with, you know, an

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Speaker 1: elite on ball defender that can chase over the top

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Speaker 1: and funnel into an elite rim protector and running spread

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Speaker 1: pick and roll. On the other end of you don't

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Speaker 1: have to run traditional basketball schemes in order to win.

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Speaker 1: You can win a basketball game in many different ways,

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Speaker 1: and Houston is finding a new way to do that.

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Speaker 1: Second big thing I wanted to deep dive in with

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Speaker 1: Houston Alburnshengun. How good can he become? He's averaging twenty

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Speaker 1: three points, ten rebounds, and seven assists on the season

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Speaker 1: so far in his last three games twenty eight, eleven,

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Speaker 1: and eight. And again, like we talked about at the

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Speaker 1: top of the show, he's been in the league five years,

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Speaker 1: so it feels like he's been around forever. But he's

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Speaker 1: only twenty three years old. And I was digging into

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Speaker 1: some of his numbers this morning, and I still think

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Speaker 1: he's barely even close to touching his potential. And again,

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Speaker 1: before we get any further into this, he's at this

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Speaker 1: point an All NBA player right now. If the season

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Speaker 1: ended today, he's making an All NBA team. So he's

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Speaker 1: already looking like a top fifteen player in the league

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Speaker 1: at age twenty three. And that's before any of these

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Speaker 1: things that we're about to get into, which are clear

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Speaker 1: areas of opportunity for him, like, for instance, his shot making.

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Speaker 1: He's shooting really well from three this year, shooting forty

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Speaker 1: one percent, but his short range shot making still has

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Speaker 1: a long way to go. He's just nine for twenty

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Speaker 1: five on mid range jump shots. He's just forty five

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Speaker 1: percent on hooks, he's just thirty one percent on floaters.

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Speaker 1: And what's crazy is I think he has good natural touch.

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Speaker 1: I think he's going to be way better in those areas.

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Speaker 1: I see, excuse me, I see Shangun in the big

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Speaker 1: picture is a guy who's going to be around like

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Speaker 1: sixty percent on short range shot making, a guy that's

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Speaker 1: gonna hit well over fifty percent of his floaters and

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00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 1: well over fifty percent of his hooks. Like by the

431
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 1: time Shang Gun gets twenty seven to twenty eight years old,

432
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 1: he's going to be deadly with that left shoulder hook.

433
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 1: He's gonna make that floater in the middle of the floor,

434
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: you know, well over half the time. I think he's

435
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 1: got like the kind of bag so to speak, meaning

436
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 1: like the dribble fluidity in the footwork to become a

437
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 1: guy that's going to be a very successful mid range score.

438
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 1: I think he could be right around fifty percent on

439
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,880
Speaker 1: mid range jump shots. In the big picture, I think

440
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 1: he's got that in his potential, like as a clear

441
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 1: possible outcome. And then the big thing that's different, you know,

442
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 1: because the the guy that everyone compares Shangun to is Jokic,

443
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 1: and there's a reason for that. Very similarly, he's such

444
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 1: a big bully ball player that you have to put

445
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 1: a big on him, and when you do, it causes

446
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 1: this problem where like he's quicker than that guy can

447
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 1: cause problems from the perimeter, but also if you extend

448
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 1: out on the perimeter to guard him, it can invert

449
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 1: your spacing. So then you start thinking about putting a

450
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 1: forward on him. And if you start putting a forward

451
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 1: on him, he's just gonna bully that guy and shoot it.

452
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 1: But he also has like the ability to score over

453
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 1: the top a la jokicch right, But like there's a

454
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 1: couple of big differences, right, Like he's his short range

455
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 1: shot making is nowhere near what Nikola Jokic is. Yet

456
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 1: that's a big thing He's got to work out, and

457
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 1: he's not quite as big, so it's not like the

458
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,719
Speaker 1: same kind of like physical size disadvantage that Nikola Jokic

459
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 1: causes for every single player in the league. There are

460
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 1: like some clear differences between them. Shangun's a good passer,

461
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: He's not a Nicola Jokic level passer, right, So, like

462
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: there are some obvious differences, but there are also some

463
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,679
Speaker 1: things that Shane Gum brings to the table that Jokic doesn't,

464
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 1: and that's what intrigues me, Like specifically his athleticism. There

465
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 1: is like a straight line speed, vertical like jumping ability,

466
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 1: slashing element to his game that I think he'll expand

467
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,679
Speaker 1: this is a guy that's gonna drive and dunk on

468
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 1: you lot when he gets into his mid to late twenties.

469
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: I think he can be a very good defender in

470
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 1: his mid to late twenties. He is already starting to

471
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 1: flash some of that upside there. But there is a

472
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 1: level that I think Shang Gun can get to defensively

473
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: that most of the big European bigs can't get to. Like,

474
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: there is a lot of potential upside for Shannggun. There

475
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 1: is a version of Shangun that is so much better

476
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: than he is right now, and he's already a top

477
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: fifteen player in the league. A guy that's going to

478
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 1: be a sixty plus percent short range scorer, a guy

479
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,439
Speaker 1: who's going to be a fifty plus percent mid range scorer.

480
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 1: A guy who's gonna have much more fluidity on off

481
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,400
Speaker 1: the dribble game in the mid range, a guy who's

482
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 1: gonna slash to the basket and dunk on you more,

483
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 1: a guy who's gonna be a dominant two way player.

484
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 1: To be very clear, I think Shang Gun has legitimate

485
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: top tier superstar upside, like at the same level in

486
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 1: conversations with guys like Jokic, with guys like Shay, with

487
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 1: guys like Giannis, I actually think it's more likely than

488
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:10,119
Speaker 1: not that he is firmly considered in that tier within

489
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: the next three years. It's just an unbelievable development for

490
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,640
Speaker 1: the Rockets on the talent front that they could Amen

491
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: Thompson has that type of potential too, He's further out.

492
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 1: He's probably five to seven years out from that. But

493
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 1: like there's a version to the story where they have

494
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: two of the top tier guys in the league. When

495
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: we get to that point and now you have Kevin

496
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 1: Durant to bridge the gap between now and then. The

497
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: third thing that I wanted to dive into a little

498
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 1: bit today. Is Reed Shepherd really starting to find his groove.

499
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 1: He's had double figures in seven consecutive games. He's averaging

500
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 1: in that seven game span fifteen points, fifty seven percent

501
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 1: from the field, fifty one percent from three, and most importantly,

502
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 1: he's starting to find some success as an on ball player,

503
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: which was my main concern with him early in the season.

504
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 1: If you guys remember like I believed in the three

505
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 1: point shot. It was just there's too much of a

506
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 1: large sample of him being a good shooter. And the

507
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: people that I trust that cover the draft were like, yeah,

508
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: Reed can shoot. He's gonna shoot the ball. And then

509
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 1: I thought he could be better defensively than he was.

510
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: He had a rough few first games, and when I

511
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: was watching him in preseason, I'm like, he's scrappy. He

512
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:14,679
Speaker 1: can get up underneath the basketball. He's kind of a

513
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 1: defensive playmaker that can get steels, play passing lanes, attack

514
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: the basketball on the dribble, that sort of stuff. But

515
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 1: what I didn't see where I was much lower on

516
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: Reed Shepherd than the consensus was the on ball stuff.

517
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 1: I just didn't see it. I thought he looked a

518
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: little too small. I didn't think he had the ability

519
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 1: to like get separation and elevate against elite defenders. I

520
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: didn't think there was enough on ball stuff there, and

521
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 1: like I've been flat out wrong about that to start

522
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: the season. It is legitimately coming around a couple more

523
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 1: really nice on ball screen attacks. Yesterday he had to

524
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 1: play against Craig Porter on the right side of the

525
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 1: floor where he rejected the screen on an ice, got

526
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: right down into the middle of the lane and shot

527
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,719
Speaker 1: a little bank shot off the glass and knocked it down.

528
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: He had another one in the first half where he

529
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 1: put his defense in jail and kind of worked into

530
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 1: the middle of the lane and knocked down a little floater.

531
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 1: His shot making in ball screens has been really impressive.

532
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 1: He's seven for fourteen on pull up threes in pick

533
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: and roll, so when he comes off the screen, if

534
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 1: the guy goes under, if he dies on the pick,

535
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,679
Speaker 1: he's hitting half of those pull up threes. He's shooting

536
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 1: forty four percent on twos in pick and roll, which

537
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: is pretty solid. He's five for nine on floaters. He's

538
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 1: ten for fifteen at the rim. He's doing really nice

539
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: job in his on ball reps to start this season

540
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 1: a lot better than I expected after seeing what I

541
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 1: saw in preseason. In his first few games of the season.

542
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, he's now run seventy one

543
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 1: ball screens including passes this season and he's getting one

544
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: point zero six points per possession. That's like really solid,

545
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,959
Speaker 1: that's well above average. So, like, I'll freely admit I

546
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 1: was late to the party on Reed Shepherd, but I

547
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: am starting to come around, and it's been the on

548
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: ball stuff coming into the season with what I saw

549
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: in preseason. In the first couple games, I'm like three

550
00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 1: and D guard, Like, this is a guy who can

551
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 1: guard a little bit, knock down an open three, drive

552
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,439
Speaker 1: a close out. But he's showing so much more as

553
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 1: an on ball player than I thought I would see

554
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 1: from what I've seen from him in the NBA over

555
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 1: the first you know year and some change coming into

556
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 1: this recent stretch. I think we would all be very

557
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: foolish to underestimate what this Rockets team is capable of

558
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: as a championship contender, even in the context of teams

559
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: like Oklahoma City and Denver. I talked about after the

560
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,360
Speaker 1: Fred Van Vlead injury that I just viewed Oklahoma City

561
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: and Denver as the top two contenders in the league.

562
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: We have not done an update on our contender rankings

563
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 1: since very early October, like since the start of camp.

564
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 1: We are going to do a We're about a month

565
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 1: into the season now. I want to do contender rankings

566
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 1: about once a month. Next week, we're going to do

567
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 1: something in the contender ranking department. I'm not sure what

568
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 1: that is yet. I will let you guys know, but

569
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 1: we are going to do something along those lines, and

570
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 1: I think probably Wednesday morning is my guest, but I'll

571
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,199
Speaker 1: keep you guys posted. We'll do something in the contender

572
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 1: rankings department. I want to have the Nerd Sash guys

573
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:02,959
Speaker 1: on too, because I was listening to them the other day.

574
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 1: They had the Lakers completely off of their top ten.

575
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 1: So I got to give them some shit for that

576
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 1: as well. Not saying the Lakers are going to be

577
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 1: a top tier contender, but they certainly should be in

578
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 1: the top ten. So we'll have the Nerd Sash guys

579
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 1: on next week. We'll do some contender rankings. But like

580
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,719
Speaker 1: to me, I'm just going to spoilers. Houston is absolutely

581
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: going to be in the top tier. For me, they're

582
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 1: absolutely in that conversation with Oklahoma City and Denver. I think,

583
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: in addition to all of the strong performances we've seen

584
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: to start the season in the strong metrics, it's that weirdness.

585
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: They're weird. They play a style that is very different

586
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: from the rest in the league, and that can cause

587
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 1: problems in playoff matchups. I remember for years Golden State

588
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 1: would like just jump up two oh and like every

589
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 1: single series because you would get into a series with

590
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: them and they'd be doing this and it's so different

591
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: than what everybody else is doing that by the time

592
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: you get your bearings, you're down two to oh in

593
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: the series and you're climbing up hill. That's a real

594
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: advantage when you're playing weird basketball compared to the rest

595
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 1: of the league. I absolutely think Houston is on that

596
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 1: same level as Oklahoma City. In Denver, I think we

597
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: would be insane to think that they can't win the

598
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: championship this season. I am very much a believer in

599
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: what they're building down there in Houston. By the way,

600
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: tomorrow night, we will be covering them on playback again

601
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 1: for that Nuggets Rockets Showdown. Please come hang out. We'll

602
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: be on YouTube and on playback for that entire game.

603
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: Very much looking forward to that early season showdown between

604
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: two of our top tier contenders. I believe that will

605
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 1: be the first matchup of top tier contenders since technically

606
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: that Oklahoma City matchup on Opening Night, now that we

607
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 1: view Houston in that category. All Right, before we get

608
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: out of here today, I wanted to talk a little

609
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: bit about the schedule. There's been a lot of talk

610
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: surrounding injuries lately. Steve Kerr was venting about the schedule

611
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: after a loss earlier in the week. He has every

612
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: right to feel that way, by the way, I think

613
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: the Warriors have played something like seventeen games in twenty

614
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 1: eight days, with five back to backs, and it has

615
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: straight up mentally and physically defeated that team. I think

616
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: the Warriors are good, and they're like a little over

617
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: five hundred because they've been driven into the ground by

618
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 1: the schedule. Then Adam Silver came out basically said that

619
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 1: the league is going to be doing a big investigation

620
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: into the rise in injuries in the NBA, what's causing it,

621
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 1: what can be done, and so now I think is

622
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 1: as good a time as ever to discuss why it's

623
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 1: so important for the league to eventually shorten the regular

624
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 1: season and what I think it means in the big picture,

625
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 1: because the league has been going in the opposite direction

626
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 1: as of late. They've added in season tournament basketball, They've

627
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: added the play in tournament. We have more games than ever.

628
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 1: And it's because the league is obsessed with this idea

629
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 1: that if they shorten the season, they will lose money.

630
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: It's based on this concept of inventory. They want as

631
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: much sellable inventory as possible. I think this is incredibly

632
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: short sighted, and I also think it's an important logical fallacy.

633
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 1: It's always bothered me when people see money in the

634
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: short term but can't see the big picture of what

635
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 1: happens with that decision. A classic example that drives me

636
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 1: crazy is like when I see people do like home

637
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 1: projects on their own at home to try to save money,

638
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,479
Speaker 1: like taking on some massive drywall project or taking on

639
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 1: some massive tile project or your roof or something like that,

640
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 1: And what ends up happening is in the short term,

641
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: it's a very simple decision. If I pay this roofer

642
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: to do my roof, it might cost me, you know,

643
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 1: X amount of thousand dollars. But if I do it myself.

644
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 1: I can save myself this many thousands of dollars, and

645
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 1: it like misses several key points, like, for instance, like

646
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: your best trait is what you do for a living.

647
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: You're better off channeling your energy into whatever that is,

648
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 1: whether it's picking up an extra shift or look at

649
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: looking for an extra gig in earning money with what

650
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 1: you do best every single day, then taking that money

651
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 1: and paying a person that is a professional contractor in

652
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: that area so that they can take care of it

653
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: because that's what they do for a living and they're

654
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: gonna do a much better job than you. I can't

655
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: tell you how many times over either myself over the years,

656
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 1: like I've I've flipped a house and done most of

657
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 1: the work myself before. Like when you do that kind

658
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 1: of stuff, you end up fucking up and making mistakes

659
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: and having to buy additional materials and wasting enormous amounts

660
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: of time. Like oh, I'm gonna be able to do

661
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: this in twelve hours, No one ends up being more

662
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 1: like sixty hours because half the time you don't know

663
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 1: what you're doing, you're having to redo work, and then

664
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 1: when the finished product is done, you don't end up

665
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: saving anywhere near as much money as you thought you

666
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 1: were gonna save, and the quality of your work is shit,

667
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: And like there are exemptions. Like my best buddy Luke

668
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: back in Tucson, he's like a craftsman and he's a hobbyist,

669
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 1: so like for him, he just loves doing that. So

670
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 1: like for him, like if he paid a contractor, he

671
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 1: would just get pissed off because he microanalyze their work,

672
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: and like he actually genuinely enjoys doing it. So like

673
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 1: there are exceptions, but for most of us, we're better

674
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 1: off just trying to find ways to make our own

675
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: money doing what we do best, and then paying the

676
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 1: people who do that work best to do it. But

677
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 1: we don't because we can't see past that initial savings.

678
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 1: I might be able to save two thousand bucks if

679
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 1: I do my own roof coating, and then you end

680
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: up doing a shitty job, burning through more materials than

681
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 1: you thought, spending way much more time doing it than

682
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 1: you thought you were gonna do. It's that short sighted

683
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 1: approach to money, and I think the NBA is making

684
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 1: a very similar mistake. All they can see is if

685
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: they shorten the season, they'll have less sellable inventory and

686
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 1: What they can't see is that if you shorten the season,

687
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: your inventory becomes more valuable. Maybe not right away, but

688
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 1: within a few years when the quality of your product

689
00:33:54,400 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 1: dramatically improves. In my opinion, shortening the season what proved

690
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: the value of your inventory more than commensurate to the

691
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 1: drop in your total amount of inventory. The NBA regular

692
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: season has a big problem with availability and intensity. Just

693
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 1: take last night, for example, the Golden State Warriors basically

694
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: punted a game in Miami because of the schedule, sat

695
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 1: out all their stars, and that was just like one

696
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 1: of the things. Chicago beats Portland. Drew Holidays out with

697
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: a soft tissue injury. By the way, shout out to

698
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: Nikola Vusovich, yet another game winner on a spacing three.

699
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 1: On the week side on a drive, the Knicks beat

700
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 1: the MAVs in Dallas. Injuries all over the place, So

701
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 1: Giannanobi with a soft tissue injury and Anthony Davis has

702
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 1: a soft tissue injury, like just different versions of both teams,

703
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 1: by the way, kind of a bogus offensive foul called

704
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: on that late game tying layup from Brandon Williams. I

705
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:52,879
Speaker 1: know he chicken winged him a little bit. But that's

706
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 1: just a super physical late gameplay. I thought they should

707
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: have counted that bucket. Denver's down two starters on the

708
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 1: road in New Orleans. Massive night for payd Watson. By

709
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: the way, Nicholas or excuse me, Demonisa Bonus is out

710
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 1: in Oklahoma City with a sore knee. Like it's just

711
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: that is par for the course. In the NBA these days,

712
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 1: you're going to see every single night three fourths of

713
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 1: the game basically representing shells of both teams. The regular season,

714
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 1: more than ever, is now about surviving rather than about

715
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:29,760
Speaker 1: providing a showcase for the best basketball players in the world.

716
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 1: It's now becoming like who wins in the regular season

717
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 1: now is every bit as much about your depth of

718
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 1: talent as well as like how well coached are you

719
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 1: and how disciplined are you in your system so that

720
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 1: you can win on the margins and do like these

721
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 1: little things as a team, as guys slot into roles,

722
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 1: so that you can like basically manufacture wins in the

723
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 1: regular season when important starters are missing games. That's what

724
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,240
Speaker 1: the regular season has become about. It's not become about

725
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: can the Rockets at their best beat Denver at their best.

726
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 1: It's not about like like actually matching up the stars

727
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 1: of the league and the best teams of the league

728
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: against each other as a showcase to see you who's

729
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 1: the best basketball team. It's like how good is your

730
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 1: ninth and tenth man, and like, do you have a

731
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 1: good enough system that can manufacture wins when key guys

732
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 1: are out of the lineup? That's driving the regular season. Now,

733
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 1: by the way, that's fun for us. Yeah, us basketball

734
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 1: nut jobs. Who can you know, spend time, you know,

735
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 1: like to take Ni Kwan Tomlin it. We can sit

736
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: at him and be like, yeah, this is this is awesome.

737
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 1: We found this other high motor athlete. He's really good.

738
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 1: He grabs all these offensive rebounds, he runs the four,

739
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: he can guard the other team's best player. That's great.

740
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: He might not be in their rotation if they get

741
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 1: to the playoffs and Darius Garland's healthy and Max Struce

742
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 1: is healthy, he might not play. It's fun for us

743
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 1: to dive into that kind of stuff, but that's not

744
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,359
Speaker 1: going to capture the attention in the passion of the

745
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:05,240
Speaker 1: masses the way that actually matching up the best versions

746
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 1: of these teams against each other consistently in a showcase

747
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:13,760
Speaker 1: every night would So now imagine this scenario. You shorten

748
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 1: the season to sixty six games, roughly a twenty percent

749
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 1: increase in your volume. Right, you keep it over the

750
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: same calendar length. You still play from mid October to

751
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 1: mid June. As a result, teams are only playing like

752
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 1: three times a week, sometimes less. You completely get rid

753
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 1: of back to backs every single week. Teams are basically

754
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 1: guaranteed at least one stretch of two consecutive nights off.

755
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:42,280
Speaker 1: I believe that would lead to at least a twenty

756
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 1: percent increase in the value of each game in the standings,

757
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 1: the level of participation from the stars, the practice time

758
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 1: the teams could get so that they could be sharper

759
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 1: and more organized. Right now, your average star plays like

760
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 1: sixty five to seventy out of the eighty two games

761
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 1: I think give. You shortened the season to sixty six games,

762
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 1: you're gonna get sixty to sixty two sixty three games

763
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 1: out of your stars. So, yeah, you might shorten the

764
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 1: inventory of the season by sixteen games, but you're not

765
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 1: gonna be cutting all the stars by sixteen games. You're

766
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 1: gonna watch Luca and Giannis and Anthony Edwards and Donovan

767
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 1: Mitchell and Jalen Brunson. You're gonna watch those guys about

768
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 1: the same amount of times as if you kept an

769
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 1: eighty two game season, because they will only miss games

770
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 1: when they're legitimately injured. Because of the fact that the

771
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 1: load management is essentially baked into the schedule, injuries would

772
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:42,399
Speaker 1: happen less often, So like the actual reasons for which

773
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: a player has to miss a game would happen less often.

774
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 1: Every national TV game would be a legit showcase for

775
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:54,280
Speaker 1: the league. The stars would play, they would have practiced

776
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 1: that week, so they would have a game plan, and

777
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 1: they'd be organized on both ends of the floor. The

778
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 1: intensity would rise, why because the games more important than

779
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 1: the standings, but also because of this the love for

780
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 1: the game. How many times have we watched a regular

781
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 1: season game this season or in recent seasons where it

782
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 1: looked like a team didn't even want to be out

783
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: there because it's like their fifth game and eight nights

784
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 1: and their beat, or because they're at the tail end

785
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,360
Speaker 1: of a super long road trip that has had multiple

786
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 1: back to backs and all this crazy travel and these

787
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 1: dudes just want to go home bet with their families. Like,

788
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:30,240
Speaker 1: think of how many fewer blowouts we would have because

789
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 1: a team just let go of the rope because they're

790
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:37,320
Speaker 1: just defeated from fatigue. Think about how much more hyped

791
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,879
Speaker 1: your stars would be for every game if they were

792
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 1: happening less frequently, so that their love for basketball could

793
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:48,800
Speaker 1: be more prevalent than the level of fatigue they're feeling

794
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 1: from how much the schedule is beating them into the ground.

795
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 1: And again, ultimately you only need to account for roughly

796
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 1: a twenty percent decrease in revenue only from the regular season. Like,

797
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 1: I don't think you should shorten the playoffs. Playoffs are

798
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 1: the best product the NBA has. There's something to be

799
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 1: said about, like whether or not you should continue to

800
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 1: add urgency to the regular season through you know, getting

801
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,359
Speaker 1: rid of the idea of like having ten teams get

802
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,839
Speaker 1: into the playoffs with the play in tournament. Like there's

803
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 1: different things you could potentially do to try to address that,

804
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: but for the most part, I don't think that's a

805
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:24,840
Speaker 1: huge deal. Like, teams don't want to be in the

806
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 1: play and I promise you they don't want to have

807
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: their season come down to a single elimination game. But like,

808
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 1: if you can decrease your regular season inventory by twenty percent.

809
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 1: All you need to increase is twenty percent in the

810
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:43,839
Speaker 1: overall value of each regular season game. And if your

811
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 1: stars are playing, and the teams have practiced and game

812
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,240
Speaker 1: plan for each each other appropriately, and there's way fewer

813
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 1: blowouts because teams aren't letting go of the rope, and

814
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,760
Speaker 1: the games matter more in the standings, and the stars

815
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: are like hyped because they're like, Hey, we're playing basketball

816
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 1: tonight instead of fuck, we're playing bass tonight. Like those

817
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 1: are the kinds of things that I think would more

818
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 1: than account for whatever sort of downside you experience from

819
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 1: dropping revenue. I just the NBA season has become so

820
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: much less about which team is better on any given

821
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 1: night in terms of their ceiling, and more about depth

822
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 1: and system, because depth and system is what allows you

823
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 1: to succeed when three of your top six guys are out,

824
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 1: and on any any given night, you're probably gonna have

825
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: three of your top six guys out. I watched the

826
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 1: Lakers play with a fully healthy roster two nights ago

827
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 1: against the Jazz. I think that might be the first

828
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 1: time in the last like five years I've seen that happen,

829
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 1: because every time someone's got a little bit of cash soreness.

830
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 1: They're out. Every time Luka Doncic is on tailing of

831
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 1: back to back, he's like, no, not like you finally

832
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:55,720
Speaker 1: played in the back to back the other day. That's

833
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: against Milwaukee. That's not happening for the most part for

834
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 1: most of these guys. I just I'm I am encouraged

835
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: because seeing this pressure applied from guys like Steve Kerr,

836
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 1: seeing the additional efforts from the league talked about by

837
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 1: Adam Silver, like this to me just signifies that they're

838
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 1: at least starting to consider it. It ain't gonna change

839
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: things for us. There's still gonna be games on seven

840
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: nights a week. We're still gonna have hoops to talk

841
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 1: about all the time. Just instead of having eight games

842
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 1: on a Tuesday slate, they'll have five games on a

843
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 1: Tuesday slate. And in those five games, instead of having

844
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 1: six of the eight games have three four key rotation

845
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 1: players missing between the two teams, you're more likely to

846
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 1: have full strength. We'd be sitting here today talking about

847
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis versus og Ananobi in the matchup with the

848
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,280
Speaker 1: Knicks and the MAVs, rather than the shells of both teams.

849
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 1: Does Kyrie Irving Terra's acl if he doesn't wear himself

850
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:57,399
Speaker 1: into the ground the way he did at the tail

851
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 1: end of last season. I think these things are all

852
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,360
Speaker 1: connect to each other, and I don't think the solution

853
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 1: is all that complicated. All right, guys, that's all I

854
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,919
Speaker 1: have for today. As always, as sincerely appreciate you guys

855
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,879
Speaker 1: for supporting us and supporting the show. Tomorrow is mail

856
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: bag Day, so make sure you get your questions into

857
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 1: the full episodes. So lots of extra content coming this week.

858
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 1: I have Lakers Collective coming today, so make sure you

859
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Speaker 1: get head over there to get a little deep dive

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Speaker 1: on the early returns from the lebron Lakers. Tomorrow, I'm

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Speaker 1: going on the All NBA Show with Adam Marres. We'll

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Speaker 1: be talking about stuff around the league. Got playback on

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Speaker 1: Friday night between Denver and Houston. Lots of content still

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Speaker 1: coming this week, and we have our mail bag tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you get your questions in the comments. We'll

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Speaker 1: get to it then. I will see you guys tomorrow