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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybacurate podcast, available every morning on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Monday, the first of

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Speaker 1: July in London.

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Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepkin and I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today,

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Speaker 2: Marion Lepen's National Rally wins the first round of voting

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Speaker 2: in France. As the farright party chases a parliamentary majority.

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Speaker 1: Kirs Starmer tells Bloomberg that boosting GDP would be the

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Speaker 1: primary focus of a labor government as polls predict a

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Speaker 1: landslide victory.

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Speaker 2: Plus as one Reform UK candidate disowns the party amid

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Speaker 2: a racism row, we take a closer look at the

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Speaker 2: party's leader, Nigel Farage and ask if he could one

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Speaker 2: day lead the Conservative Party.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: The far right National Rally Party has come out on

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Speaker 2: top and the first round of France's parliamentary election. Final

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Speaker 2: results show Marion Leapenz party won just over thirty three

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Speaker 2: percent of the vote, while the left wing New Popular

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Speaker 2: Front coalition took twenty eight percent and Macran's Centrist Alliance

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Speaker 2: came in with almost twenty one percent. Speaking after polls

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Speaker 2: closed last night. Marrying Lapenn emphasized the importance of the

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Speaker 2: high turnout in the election.

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Speaker 3: The French people have placed the National Rally and its

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Speaker 3: allies in the lead and virtually wiped out the Machronus Bloc.

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Speaker 3: First of all, as a political leader, I welcomed such

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Speaker 3: a high turnout, which gives particular force to tonight's results.

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Speaker 2: So National Rallies. Marry Leapenn, speaking through a translator. There,

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Speaker 2: turnout was almost sixty seven percent, the highest in a

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Speaker 2: parliamentary election since two thousand and two.

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Speaker 1: Following the results from France, the euro strengthened on bets

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Speaker 1: that the National Rally would fall short of an absolute majority.

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Speaker 1: The currency climbed as much as zero point four percent

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Speaker 1: against the dollar in early trading, its strongest since Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: after traders digested news that the far right party won

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Speaker 1: the first round, but by a smaller margin than some

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Speaker 1: polls had indicated. French political commentator Annies Parriers says that

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Speaker 1: the National Rally could struggle to win the final round

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Speaker 1: of voting on the seventh of July.

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Speaker 4: The hard left leader Jean Luc Milachan and everybody else

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Speaker 4: really on the political spectrum agree on one thing. It

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Speaker 4: is to bar Marina Bentz from getting an absolute majority.

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Speaker 1: And Yes Praie speaking. The attention now shifts to the

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Speaker 1: second round vote as President Macon and other National Rally

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Speaker 1: opponents strategize to keep the far right party out of power.

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Speaker 2: France's election results are likely to overshadow the European Central

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Speaker 2: Banks annual gathering in Portugal this week. Concern is bubbling

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Speaker 2: that a shift away from the center will lead to

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Speaker 2: a push for more spending in a country that's already

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Speaker 2: running a budget death as an excess of five percent.

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Speaker 2: The spreads between French and German government bond yields has

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Speaker 2: already widened significantly, and the events scenarios over shadowing Tuesday's

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Speaker 2: inflation data. Bloomberg Economics expects the June print to show

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Speaker 2: price rises across the euro Area dipping back below the

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Speaker 2: ECB's two percent target for the first time in three years,

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Speaker 2: unlocking potentially two additional rate cuts this year.

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Speaker 1: Well. Here in the UK, the labor leader Kiir Starmer

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Speaker 1: has told Bloomberg that global investors back him to create

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Speaker 1: growth in the country. With voters going to the polls

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Speaker 1: on Thursday, the front runner has promised that the UK

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Speaker 1: will have the highest sustained economic growth in the G seven,

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Speaker 1: without committing to a time frame. Here is Kirs Starmer

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Speaker 1: speaking to our reporter Ellen Milligan.

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Speaker 5: Growth is the number one mission. I'm confidence that we

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Speaker 5: can get growth. We have already, as you would expect,

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Speaker 5: been talking to global investors for two years or more

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Speaker 5: and been very clear with them and they with us

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Speaker 5: as traditions that will enable them to invest. At the moment,

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Speaker 5: many are saying we've got the money to invest, but

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Speaker 5: we're not investing because the chaos there dropping the changing

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Speaker 5: the difference of prime ministers and chances. That's why stability

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Speaker 5: is so important.

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Speaker 1: Kiirs Starmer then, who added that Labour's manifesto doesn't require

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Speaker 1: tax rises, including on banks, but he faces a difficult

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Speaker 1: fiscal situation if he wins. Labour's pledge not to raise

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Speaker 1: taxes means that the party could be forced into U

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Speaker 1: turns to fund the government if the ambitious growth plans

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Speaker 1: don't bear fruit.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister Rici Sceinac says he can still win

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Speaker 2: the election in spite of polls suggesting a mammoth gap

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Speaker 2: in popularity compared to Labor. The Conservative leader warned that

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Speaker 2: Labour would cause irreversible damage in just one hundred days

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Speaker 2: of coming to power. He told the BBC his government

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Speaker 2: had tackled record high inflation and electing kir Starmer would

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Speaker 2: put that at risk.

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Speaker 6: And I do think it is about tax because people

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Speaker 6: are working very, very hard and I want them to

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Speaker 6: be able to keep more of their money so that

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Speaker 6: they can spend that on their families in the way

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Speaker 6: that they won. And we've now been able to start

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Speaker 6: doing that after a difficult few years, and none of

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Speaker 6: those things are going to be made any easier by

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Speaker 6: Labor government that would whack up everyone's taxes by thousands

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Speaker 6: of pounds.

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Speaker 2: Sunakan's Party of Go claim that Labour would raise taxes

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Speaker 2: for Old Britains, despite pledgers to the country. The Conservatives

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Speaker 2: also face a challenge on the right from the Reform

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Speaker 2: UK Party, who have at times overtaken them in some

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Speaker 2: national polls during the selection campaign.

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Speaker 1: To the US Now, Joe Biden's campaign has gone on

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Speaker 1: the attack as a growing chorus of voices call on

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Speaker 1: the eighty one year old to drop out of the

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Speaker 1: presidential race. Aids spent the weekend publicly dismissing suggestions that

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Speaker 1: Biden should reconsider his candidacy. The New York Times reports

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Speaker 1: that Biden's family is urging him to keep fighting. Speaking

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Speaker 1: to ABC's This Week, the Democratic Senator Chris Coons said

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Speaker 1: that despite a weak performance, he believes that Biden is

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Speaker 1: the only person who can beat Trump.

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden has an incredible record and he knows, as

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Speaker 3: the American people do, that when you get.

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Speaker 7: Knocked down, you get back up and you fight harder.

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Speaker 1: But the support of Chris Coons and other advocates, early

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Speaker 1: polling suggests that the Biden Trump TV debate has had

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Speaker 1: a major impact on the presidential A post debate poll

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Speaker 1: by CBS News found that seventy two percent of registered

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Speaker 1: voters said that Biden didn't have the mental and cognitive

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Speaker 1: health to serve as president, and only twenty eight percent

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Speaker 1: of registered voters believe that Biden should be running for president.

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Speaker 2: And England survived a huge scare but got through to

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Speaker 2: the quarterfinals of the Euro twenty twenty four. The team

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Speaker 2: was trailing Slovakia one nil before Dude Bellingham's ninety fifth

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Speaker 2: minute overhead kick with just eighty six seconds on the

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Speaker 2: clock took the game to extra time.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, thirty seconds from going home having to listen to

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Speaker 8: all the rubbish, feeling like you've let a nation of

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Speaker 8: people down, and in thirty seconds or a one kick

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Speaker 8: of the ball, everything can change.

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Speaker 2: Beallingham's goal put England on the front foot after a

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Speaker 2: lackluster performance during the tournament. Captain Harry Kane then completed

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Speaker 2: the comeback as the three lines progressed after winning two

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Speaker 2: to one. Guardsadgates team will play Switzerland in the quarterfinals.

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Speaker 2: I know I went to look at the central role

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Speaker 2: that Nigel Farage has played in the UK elect campaign,

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Speaker 2: but we're thinking about the other election this morning and won.

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Speaker 2: Our opinion columnist John Authors is calling the longest week

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Speaker 2: in politics, and actually it's going to be the next

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Speaker 2: two days that are going to be really critical as

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Speaker 2: to how the second round of the French election plays out.

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Speaker 2: Indulge me for a moment to talk about electoral systems,

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Speaker 2: my favorite subject, and it's because of the way that

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Speaker 2: the two round system works in France. So any candidate

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Speaker 2: that gots over twelve and a half percent of registered

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Speaker 2: votes qualifies for the second round. So in one hundred

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Speaker 2: and eighty eight constituencies, that's going to be a two

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Speaker 2: way runoff, but in a record three hundred and six

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Speaker 2: there are three or more candidates, so among those there's

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Speaker 2: a four way runoff and five constituencies in France as well.

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Speaker 2: So this is something that now leads to horse trading

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Speaker 2: as to who might pull out. Is does a candidate

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Speaker 2: pull out an effort to try and stop the far

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Speaker 2: right from getting elected. They have until six pm tomorrow

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Speaker 2: to decide. So the real politics is happening now.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and that's extraordinary. But I just think top line,

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Speaker 1: the thing that I've taken away is simply the number

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Speaker 1: of people who've been out to vote in this first

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Speaker 1: round of the elects in France. After, of course, the

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Speaker 1: European election really sent that kind of earthquake underneath European

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Speaker 1: politics and led to the snap vote. You might think

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Speaker 1: that people would be fed up of voting, but absolutely not.

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Speaker 6: No.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, the highest turnouts in a parliamentary vote since two

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Speaker 2: thousand and two. Let's bring in our Paris to your

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Speaker 2: Buera chief, Alan Katz for more on these results. Alan,

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Speaker 2: good morning. First of all, just how significant is it

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Speaker 2: that the National Rally the far right came first in

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Speaker 2: this election.

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Speaker 7: It's really quite significant because they've come first in some

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Speaker 7: elections before, but mostly European elections. In European elections or

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Speaker 7: elections for the European Parliament are generally viewed as protest votes.

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Speaker 7: It's the way that you can express your dissatisfaction with

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Speaker 7: the government or some government policies, or just your general rumpiness,

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Speaker 7: which the French are often want to do, and so

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Speaker 7: it's not necessarily indicative of who you want to lead

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Speaker 7: your government or your country. Voting in a parliamentary election

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Speaker 7: is a quite different thing, especially in this one, where

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Speaker 7: the likelihood was that you were voting to try to

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Speaker 7: put in an opposition government that would function what's called

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Speaker 7: cohabitation with Emmanuel and that Connich means that they would

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Speaker 7: be politically opposed to each other and work in conflict

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Speaker 7: rather than in concert. And so for Leepen to get

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Speaker 7: as many votes as she did, or for her party

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Speaker 7: to get as many votes as it did, it really

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Speaker 7: is quite a sea change in France and really shows

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Speaker 7: just how accepted in a large part of the French

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Speaker 7: population the national rally has become.

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Speaker 1: Well, this was the question in a way that Macron

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Speaker 1: was posing, and the reason that he called the snap election,

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Speaker 1: and yet how bad does this now look for him?

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Speaker 7: It looks like he made a bad bed. I mean,

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Speaker 7: many people from the moment that he dissolved parliament and

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Speaker 7: called this election, many people were asking themselves, why on

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Speaker 7: earth would you do something like this. He really was

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Speaker 7: doing it from a position of weakness, and it didn't

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Speaker 7: strike most observers as a likely positive for him. And

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Speaker 7: that's exactly how it turned out now. To be sure,

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Speaker 7: to give him, I guess a little bit of benefit.

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Speaker 7: He did do or his party to do it, ever

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Speaker 7: so slightly better than Poles had predicted. So it wasn't

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Speaker 7: as bad a wipeout, I suppose as it could have been,

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Speaker 7: but it certainly wasn't good.

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Speaker 9: He's going to lose I don't know. I mean, we

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Speaker 9: won't know until the end.

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Speaker 7: You made a very good discussed the sort of the

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Speaker 7: French voting system quite well.

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Speaker 9: It is complicated. But he's going to lose many, many seats.

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Speaker 7: His party's going to come back somewhere between probably I

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Speaker 7: don't know, maybe like seventy to one hundred seats or

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Speaker 7: something like that, maybe a few more.

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Speaker 9: Down from to forty odd today.

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Speaker 7: So he's going to lose a lot of power in

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Speaker 7: Parliament and he's going to gain basically nothing, and so

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Speaker 7: it really would have been a bet that has gone

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Speaker 7: badly for him and badly for France insofar as it

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Speaker 7: really legitimized Mariine Le Pez and her party's chances of winning,

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Speaker 7: if not an outright majority in this election that's still

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Speaker 7: to be determined, potentially winning the presidency in twenty twenty seventh.

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Speaker 2: And Alan on this question of who will present themselves

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Speaker 2: in those second round runoffs on Sunday as well. We

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Speaker 2: heard from some party leaders last night about whether or

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Speaker 2: not they'd pull out. What does that picture look like

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Speaker 2: this morning.

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Speaker 7: So you discussed very well as you said, you know,

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Speaker 7: the candidacies have to be put in by the end

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Speaker 7: of the day tomorrow, and there's a lot of horse

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Speaker 7: trading going on as we speak. The way that it

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Speaker 7: is looking to be set up is that there's something

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Speaker 7: in France called a franteis publican, which is that they

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Speaker 7: called the Republican Front, which would.

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Speaker 9: Be basically anybody except for the far right.

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Speaker 7: And this comes sort of the memory of World War

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Speaker 7: Two and France's occupation by Nazi Germany at.

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Speaker 9: That time that the far left has called for that.

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Speaker 7: Franheis Publica and Jean Nique Binalchan, who's the head of

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Speaker 7: the far left and some Boud party, has said, you know,

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Speaker 7: we will in cases that are candidates in third place,

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Speaker 7: they will drop out in favor of other.

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Speaker 9: Candidates as long as that candidate is not in the

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Speaker 9: national rally.

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Speaker 7: And that's what everyone in the New Popular Front has said,

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Speaker 7: which is a group of leftist parties including the Socialists

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Speaker 7: and this France about among others. Now mcoll's party has

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Speaker 7: been a little bit different, and maclall himself as well

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Speaker 7: as Gebler Ratal and other leaders in that party, they've said,

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Speaker 7: you know, we will do the same thing for anyone

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Speaker 7: who basically shares our.

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Speaker 9: Democratic and republican values.

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Speaker 7: And in the they haven't named names, but in the

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Speaker 7: lead up to this election, mac Hoom particular is always

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Speaker 7: putting the far right and France on Bout, which is

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Speaker 7: the far left party within this New Popular Front, on

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Speaker 7: the same playing level playing field, saying that they're both extremes,

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Speaker 7: they don't represent democratic and republican values and so it

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Speaker 7: seems like there's a real discord there and if Macome

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Speaker 7: doesn't agree to support France on bout candidates.

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Speaker 9: When would say mac conkan is in third place, does

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Speaker 9: that block the whole thing? And actually at the end

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Speaker 9: of the day allow maring the pending in the majority.

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Speaker 9: That's still to be seen, but that's the risk.

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Speaker 2: Okay, plenty to watch our Paris bureau chief Alan Katz,

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Speaker 2: thank you very much.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 1: When we think about the ride, we should also think

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Speaker 1: about here in the UK the entry of Nigel Parage

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Speaker 1: into the UK general election, the last thing perhaps that

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Speaker 1: she soon wanted. Farag's party, Reform UK, has emerged as

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Speaker 1: a significant force in the polls and could peel away

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Speaker 1: right wing voters from the Tories, but the campaign has

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Speaker 1: been mired in a controversy over party activists being filmed

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Speaker 1: making racist comments, and one candidate, Liam Booth Isherwood is

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Speaker 1: defecting too the Conservatives because of his concerns. Joining us

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Speaker 1: now is our reporter Jack Ryan, who has been covering

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Speaker 1: Nigel Farage and his party closely during this campaign for

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Speaker 1: Bloombag News. Jack, good morning, Labor our heavy favorites to

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Speaker 1: win the majority. But what is the significance of Reform

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Speaker 1: UK in this general election?

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Speaker 10: So I think going into this election, I mean not

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Speaker 10: for kind of us election nerds, but for most people

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Speaker 10: slightly boring because it's not a very competitive one. We

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Speaker 10: think we know the outcome. Labor have this poll lead

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Speaker 10: that looks relatively stable. Everyone expects Key Starmer to get

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Speaker 10: the keys to number ten on Friday morning. But the

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Speaker 10: rise of Reformers made things more interesting. They're now at

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Speaker 10: about six, which is touching distance to the Tories. There's

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Speaker 10: even some polls that have them above the Tories, and

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Speaker 10: that means that rather than just losing the Conservatives, this

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Speaker 10: three hundred year old party could be facing a wipeout

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Speaker 10: the likes of which we've never actually seen before. And

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Speaker 10: that's why frag entering this race is so consequential. He

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Speaker 10: has really risen the profile of the party. He's a

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Speaker 10: very talented campaigner. He's arguably one of the most consequential

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Speaker 10: figures in twenty first century British politics. It's often called

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Speaker 10: mister bregsit I think Trump who had called him that first,

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Speaker 10: and he's likely to play a big role in the

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Speaker 10: next parliament.

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Speaker 2: Now there have been accusations of racism, sexism, homophobia against

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Speaker 2: the party and counter accusations as well. I mean, how

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Speaker 2: has that influenced the campaign.

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Speaker 10: So I think this has taken some of the wind

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Speaker 10: out of the Reform campaign. Going into the last week,

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Speaker 10: they've been steadily gaining in the polls, and then coming

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Speaker 10: into this week they had this Channel four expose revealing

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Speaker 10: some of the racist comments from some of the campaigners,

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Speaker 10: and then also they had this, and we've seen Reform

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Speaker 10: cancel some of their media appearances. Frag is actually currently

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Speaker 10: boycotting the BBC over what he says was a biased

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Speaker 10: question time audience. But I don't think this will sink

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Speaker 10: them because we've had similar stories over the previous weeks,

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Speaker 10: and weeks ago was revealed that one candidate had said

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Speaker 10: that Britain should have done a truce with the Nazis.

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Speaker 10: Many many different stories like that, and that hasn't really

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Speaker 10: appeared to dent their rise in the polls. So I

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Speaker 10: can't see that being a critical issue for them.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Nigel farg just said that he wants to do

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Speaker 1: a quite reverse take of the Conservatives. How likely do

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Speaker 1: you think that is and how actually would it would

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Speaker 1: it work?

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Speaker 10: But he's kind of been darkly threatening this for quite

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Speaker 10: a long time and he's become slightly more lukewarm about it.

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Speaker 10: In the last few weeks. In short, I think it's possible,

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Speaker 10: but I think it's a narrow path that Farad would

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Speaker 10: have to tread. So one way you could do it

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Speaker 10: would be to defect the Conservatives and run for leadership

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Speaker 10: of the party. We know that there's likely to be

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Speaker 10: a Conservative leadership election very soon if the party suffers

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Speaker 10: a deveal on Thursday, as we expect, Frage could throw

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Speaker 10: his hat in the ring for that. But then the

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Speaker 10: big obstacle would be getting selected as a candidate by

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Speaker 10: Tory MPs. The way the system currently works, those MPs

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Speaker 10: would have to elect him as one of the top

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Speaker 10: two candidates in the party to be presented to members,

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Speaker 10: so he would have to gather the support of about

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Speaker 10: a third of the Parliamentary Party to be sure of

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Speaker 10: getting in front of the members. If he did manage

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Speaker 10: to make it to the final two, he'd have a

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Speaker 10: very good chance of winning with the members. There's been

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Speaker 10: polls showing he's the most popular choice, and we know

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Speaker 10: that Tory membership is much further to the right than

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Speaker 10: the average Conservative voter. Another possibility is a straightforward merger

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Speaker 10: of the parties or packed to allocate outseats between them.

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Speaker 10: This will be a big temptation for the Tories going

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Speaker 10: into twenty twenty nine if Reform stick around and continue

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Speaker 10: splitting the right wing vote, because in Britain's later or system,

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Speaker 10: that really is fatal. But on the other side, a

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Speaker 10: deal with Frad would mean that they'll have to keep

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Speaker 10: tackling right which could make it harder for them to

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Speaker 10: recapture the middle ground and get the keys to Number

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Speaker 10: ten back.

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Speaker 2: So plenty of hurdles on that particular journey. But if

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Speaker 2: Nigel Frad does become an MP, what should we be

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Speaker 2: expecting from him in Parliament?

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Speaker 10: So first I guess he has to win a seat.

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Speaker 10: He's running in Clacton, where he's very heavily tipped to win.

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Speaker 10: This is territory that Reform hoped to do well in.

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Speaker 10: Almost seventy percent of the constituency voted to leave the

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Speaker 10: European Union in the last parliament it held the single

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Speaker 10: UKIP MP. It's exactly the type of sea where they're

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Speaker 10: hoping to do well. Assuming he makes the mark on

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Speaker 10: Thursday night, he'll probably enter Parliament along with maybe a

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Speaker 10: single digit number over Form MPs. If the Tory Party

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Speaker 10: has a drubbing in the selection. The last person they're

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Speaker 10: going to want to see along the isles is Frage,

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Speaker 10: because as long as he's outside the tent, he'll be

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Speaker 10: constantly attacking their exposed right flank, pushing them to fight harder,

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Speaker 10: particularly on cultural war issues. And going back to what

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Speaker 10: I was saying earlier, if Frage enters Parliament, there's going

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Speaker 10: to be tremendous pressure to unite the right. The position

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Speaker 10: of Forrage, I think will also depend on how the

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Speaker 10: right wing media and Britain decides to treat them. We

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Speaker 10: don't know, for example, who the next owner of the

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Speaker 10: Telegraph newspaper is going to be. For example, we know

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Speaker 10: that Frag had own his own show on gb News.

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Speaker 10: If they decide to back them, that could put tremendous

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Speaker 10: pressure on the Tories to accept Frage into their ranks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and of course there's also his close relationship with

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Speaker 1: President Donald Trump. I mean, one can imagine, you know,

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Speaker 1: under a if kise Doma does get the keys in

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Speaker 1: none but ten, then Niger Frage potentially his close relationship

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Speaker 1: with potentially the US president anyway one can One can

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Speaker 1: also extrapolate further down the line how interesting things might

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Speaker 1: get later in the year.

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Speaker 10: Absolutely. I mean the similarities between Trump and Farage we

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Speaker 10: touched on a piece today, they're impossible to ignore. I

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Speaker 10: mean Trump's stage tump. Trump himself staged a populist takeover

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Speaker 10: the Republican Party, one of this Grand Old Party, part

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Speaker 10: of a two party system, in a similar way to

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Speaker 10: how Farage is threatening to do the same. In some

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Speaker 10: matters of style they're similar as well. You know, Trump

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Speaker 10: Farage excuse me, has these Trump style nicknames for opponents

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Speaker 10: like slippery sou neck or call me Dave for David Cameron.

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Speaker 10: And then Forages comments about Ukraine. You can see echoes

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Speaker 10: of Trump's foreign policy there, and indeed Forra's friend Steve Bannon,

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Speaker 10: so we know the two of a good relationship. Forage

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Speaker 10: has actually said recently that Trump learned a lot from him.

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Speaker 10: And so if we see President Trump at the White

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Speaker 10: House and Nigel Farage MP, which bookies will tell you

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Speaker 10: both of those things are going to happen, the interaction

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Speaker 10: between those two would be very interesting.

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