1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us prout

2
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:12,000
Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so smooth,

3
00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:18,640
Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious. Ex procution, guys, all

4
00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:22,040
Speaker 1: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent

5
00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:22,480
Speaker 1: of the time.

6
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,600
Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind? But buddy, and

7
00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,360
Speaker 2: that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

8
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

9
00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:32,199
Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

10
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,160
Speaker 1: Nobody picture them.

11
00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:38,720
Speaker 2: Up. I'm trying.

12
00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:46,000
Speaker 1: The all it's left to of the wide eyed, drilled

13
00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:48,960
Speaker 1: vibus How old earth.

14
00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:53,840
Speaker 2: Pick that happens? Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wondergol, the

15
00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,320
Speaker 2: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is

16
00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,240
Speaker 2: Michael Lee buff. In just one moment, I'll be joined

17
00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 2: by my friend and colleague, co host BJ Cunningham. Anthony

18
00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,600
Speaker 2: the Bundo won't be joining us today. He's at a

19
00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,240
Speaker 2: concert of all places. But before I bring in Bj,

20
00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,800
Speaker 2: a reminder that wonder Goal is presented by Bet three

21
00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,920
Speaker 2: sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with

22
00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,520
Speaker 2: promo code Action to get BET three six fives exclusive

23
00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,319
Speaker 2: sign up offer in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one

24
00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,039
Speaker 2: dollar on any game, get two hundred free. BJ's just

25
00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,480
Speaker 2: you and me. Like I said, Anthony is at the

26
00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:28,160
Speaker 2: Post Malone concert or something. We have ten Premier League

27
00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 2: games to talk about though without him, and we'll start

28
00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,840
Speaker 2: with Chelsea and Manchester United. This one's taking place at

29
00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:38,559
Speaker 2: Stanford Bridge. The Blues are even money favorites, man United

30
00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,240
Speaker 2: plus two sixty on the road. The juralis plus two sixty.

31
00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:43,679
Speaker 2: It won't really apply because these two teams kind of

32
00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:45,480
Speaker 2: cancels each other. They're out with these two teams. But

33
00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,520
Speaker 2: we're at a part of the schedule where the fixtures

34
00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,840
Speaker 2: are just piling up the Premier League, UA feather they're

35
00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:53,760
Speaker 2: just jamming in as many as they can. So this

36
00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,360
Speaker 2: is I think Chelsea and United sixth games since the

37
00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,160
Speaker 2: beginning of October, could be sloppy. I think that helps

38
00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,160
Speaker 2: the underdog just generally in these kind of situations, like

39
00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,800
Speaker 2: no matter the sport, you want more variants when you're

40
00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,560
Speaker 2: the underdog. I actually like United here. I know I've

41
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:09,240
Speaker 2: been all over the map with United. I was on

42
00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:11,239
Speaker 2: to them early. I was fading them early out of

43
00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,800
Speaker 2: the gates, got in that win against Liverpool. Then I've

44
00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,360
Speaker 2: been unsuccessfully fading them the past few weeks, But I

45
00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:18,760
Speaker 2: mean I've been on successful fanning any team the past

46
00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:21,280
Speaker 2: few weeks. They did look good against Tottenham. I think

47
00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:23,520
Speaker 2: part of that was Tottenham making them look better by

48
00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,240
Speaker 2: just playing bad. But the defense is starting to trend

49
00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:30,240
Speaker 2: in the right direction with three decent performances against Everton,

50
00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,400
Speaker 2: Newcastle and now Spurs, and Chelsea's just there due for

51
00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:37,520
Speaker 2: some negative regression. We talked about in the midweek show

52
00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,080
Speaker 2: about how lucky they were to get a win against

53
00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:41,720
Speaker 2: Aston Villa, and then they were lucky today get the

54
00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,600
Speaker 2: draw against Brentford minus one point six expected goal differential

55
00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,400
Speaker 2: in those two games four points out of it that

56
00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,000
Speaker 2: went a plus two actual goal differential. So I liked

57
00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:49,640
Speaker 2: the spot.

58
00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:53,600
Speaker 1: Here on United. Yeah, I'll admit for the first time

59
00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:57,320
Speaker 1: watching United today, I was actually impressed. Like I thought

60
00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,880
Speaker 1: ten Hog is finally starting to implement what he was

61
00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,800
Speaker 1: trying to do it I ACX, which is be very possession,

62
00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:05,800
Speaker 1: dominant counterpress and try to win the ball back in

63
00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,920
Speaker 1: the final third, which Manchester United did a wonderful job

64
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,840
Speaker 1: of against Tottenham, and Tottenham for whatever reason, just couldn't

65
00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:15,680
Speaker 1: complete any passes going forward. Now we flipped to this match,

66
00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,440
Speaker 1: the question Mark is okay, Well, is United going to

67
00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:20,679
Speaker 1: be able to be that type of possession dominant live

68
00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,640
Speaker 1: in Chelsea's final third, counterpress them and go up against

69
00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:28,160
Speaker 1: a team that is frankly looks like a better counter

70
00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,440
Speaker 1: attacking team than Tottenham Right now, I'm not so sure.

71
00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:33,400
Speaker 1: I'm sure Potter is going to try to control possession here.

72
00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,640
Speaker 1: But like you mentioned, you know last two matches defensively

73
00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,240
Speaker 1: for Chelsea, I mean they've allowed three point seven xge

74
00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:41,120
Speaker 1: to Villain Brentford, They've lost, they expected goals battle in

75
00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,480
Speaker 1: both those matches, and stylistically, if United wants to set up,

76
00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,680
Speaker 1: you know how they've done against Liverpool and Arsenal when

77
00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,200
Speaker 1: they were effective sitting deep and looking to counter. Well,

78
00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,280
Speaker 1: that's essentially what Villa and Brentford what we're able to

79
00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:54,920
Speaker 1: do in the last two matches. And you know they

80
00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:56,920
Speaker 1: weren't able to score, but they obviously created a ton

81
00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:58,760
Speaker 1: of chances. And then you look at injuries for Chelsea.

82
00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,600
Speaker 1: You know, Wesley Fafonna is Reech James is out, Thiago

83
00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:03,320
Speaker 1: Silva didn't play today, we don't know if he's going

84
00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,120
Speaker 1: to play on Saturday, and Golo Conte is now out

85
00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,320
Speaker 1: for four months Connor Gallagher went off with an injury

86
00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,400
Speaker 1: against Brentford, so the depth is really starting to come

87
00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,480
Speaker 1: into question here for the Blues. And it's honestly the

88
00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,400
Speaker 1: first time this year that I don't project any value

89
00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,279
Speaker 1: fading Manchester United. I actually have Chelsea at minus one

90
00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:22,800
Speaker 1: fifteen before accounting for all these injuries, so I am

91
00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:24,680
Speaker 1: actually going to stay away from this one. You know,

92
00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,760
Speaker 1: this is it's interesting because you look at when these

93
00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,599
Speaker 1: two teams met at Stamford Bridge last season. It was

94
00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 1: when United had just fired old Gonnis Solshar Michael Carrick

95
00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,160
Speaker 1: was in charge. Chelsea just lived inside the United's final third.

96
00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,880
Speaker 1: They dominated the entire match and United had one breakaway

97
00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,560
Speaker 1: and they scored on it and they won one. Nothing like,

98
00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:47,400
Speaker 1: are they going to try to set up similar I

99
00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,359
Speaker 1: don't know, but yeah, I think that the line is

100
00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:52,680
Speaker 1: right here. So I'm going to pass on this one.

101
00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,200
Speaker 2: That is the twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday. So

102
00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,240
Speaker 2: now let's go to seven thirty am on Saturday. There's

103
00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:03,360
Speaker 2: only four matches Sunday than we have six actually four

104
00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:07,680
Speaker 2: matches on Saturday, five on Sunday and one on Monday.

105
00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:11,040
Speaker 2: A weird schedule, but Like I said, the fixtureless piles up,

106
00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,000
Speaker 2: so things get a little wonky. The seven thirty am

107
00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,320
Speaker 2: kickoff taking place at the City Ground in Nottingham right

108
00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,559
Speaker 2: on the River Trent. Forest plus nine hundred Liverpool minus

109
00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:22,320
Speaker 2: four fifty. The draws five to one. Of all these odds,

110
00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,359
Speaker 2: of course, from our friends at Bet three six five,

111
00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:25,800
Speaker 2: I think you and I are kind of on the

112
00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:29,080
Speaker 2: same patrio. I think this match could end up with

113
00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:33,040
Speaker 2: like a baseball score, yeah, five to two or something.

114
00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an interesting one, you know. I don't hate

115
00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:37,480
Speaker 1: to look on the over here over three and a

116
00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:39,720
Speaker 1: half at plus one twenty five. I mean Liverpool they

117
00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:43,000
Speaker 1: still have defensive issues. Like you know, west Ham created

118
00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,440
Speaker 1: over two and a half expected goals against them today.

119
00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,720
Speaker 1: There was obviously was a penalty in there, but Liverpool's

120
00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:51,800
Speaker 1: eleventh in expectacles loud and at one point four per

121
00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:54,640
Speaker 1: ninety and it's just not what we've seen from Liverpool

122
00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,560
Speaker 1: defenses in the past. Now, the question is ken Nottingham

123
00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,680
Speaker 1: Forest give them any trouble. Forrest has one goal in

124
00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:02,960
Speaker 1: their last four matches, but they have created three expected

125
00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,160
Speaker 1: so they're kind of over for a little bit of

126
00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,680
Speaker 1: positive aggression. But defensively, they've played two big six sides.

127
00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:12,440
Speaker 1: Against Manchester City they got throttled, allowed three point seven

128
00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,960
Speaker 1: expected goals and against Tottenham got b two nothing allowed

129
00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:18,200
Speaker 1: two point seven expected goals. They're still playing the same

130
00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:20,480
Speaker 1: two center backs they were playing in the Championship, which

131
00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:22,920
Speaker 1: is concerning and it hasn't worked out well. Like they're

132
00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,479
Speaker 1: allowing close to two expected goals for match. And where

133
00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 1: I think this one can get off the rails to

134
00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,400
Speaker 1: your point where it might be a baseball score, is

135
00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:33,760
Speaker 1: that Nottingham Forrest when they fall behind the matches gets

136
00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,080
Speaker 1: completely out of hand. They're allowing two point one five

137
00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:38,760
Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety when playing from behind, and they've

138
00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:40,880
Speaker 1: spent about three hundred minutes playing from behind, so it's

139
00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,039
Speaker 1: a pretty decent sample size. So like I have three

140
00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,600
Speaker 1: point four goals projected, so it's you know, three and

141
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 1: a half at plus one twenty five. There is some

142
00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,840
Speaker 1: decent value there. I just need the courage to do it.

143
00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,200
Speaker 1: So I actually don't hate to look on the over here.

144
00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,480
Speaker 2: It's a game where I can see, you know, if

145
00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,000
Speaker 2: you want to bet like goal in like the first

146
00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,480
Speaker 2: ten minutes or something like that too. It just feels

147
00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,920
Speaker 2: like it's going it's just going to be a carnival.

148
00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, both teams to score. Is even money that has

149
00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:08,680
Speaker 1: a little bit of value. I think I don't know

150
00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,440
Speaker 1: if I could stomach that, but it does have a

151
00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,200
Speaker 1: little bit of value. So yeah, I think, yeah, this

152
00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,960
Speaker 1: just has either chaos written all over it or Liverpool's

153
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,280
Speaker 1: just gonna create a bunch of chances and win one nothing.

154
00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,520
Speaker 2: The first ted Am game we'll talk about, unfortunately is

155
00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,640
Speaker 2: Everden there plus one fifty at home against Pallace, plus

156
00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,040
Speaker 2: two hundred to draw here is plus two to ten

157
00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:33,920
Speaker 2: Everton or Man one shot, one shot today, one shot today,

158
00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:36,440
Speaker 2: which is an improvement with.

159
00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:40,080
Speaker 1: Dominie Calvert, Lewin, Anthony Gordon and Damari Gray up top. Yeah,

160
00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:41,040
Speaker 1: their best on three.

161
00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,360
Speaker 2: I mean they're improving though off of their last match.

162
00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:47,120
Speaker 1: True, So here we go one shot in one hundred

163
00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:48,840
Speaker 1: and twenty minutes of football.

164
00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:51,160
Speaker 2: The problem is that they when they get into that

165
00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,840
Speaker 2: attackings there, they just don't have the quality right now

166
00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:58,080
Speaker 2: to pick that one pass. Galanko, I mean was just

167
00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:01,760
Speaker 2: wasteful today. There was a couple of different chances, So

168
00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,400
Speaker 2: I think this looks like a rock fight. I actually

169
00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:07,280
Speaker 2: like to draw Palace. We know they're starting to get

170
00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,920
Speaker 2: their act together back defensively, come back win against Wolves

171
00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:15,200
Speaker 2: to one on Tuesday, and I don't think Everton are

172
00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,320
Speaker 2: going to What Frank Lampard has kind of shown us

173
00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:22,040
Speaker 2: is he knows that this team is still not safe

174
00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:25,280
Speaker 2: from the relegation battle even in the season. So I

175
00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,960
Speaker 2: think he's going to look at this as a I'm

176
00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,080
Speaker 2: not going to play into Palace his hands and let

177
00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:32,840
Speaker 2: them beat us on the counter. He could be just

178
00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,320
Speaker 2: two walls looking at each other. The totals low, I

179
00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,439
Speaker 2: think recipe for a draw, so I like to draw

180
00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:38,080
Speaker 2: plus two ten.

181
00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:39,920
Speaker 1: I don't hate a look on over two and a

182
00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,040
Speaker 1: half for both teams score For a couple of reasons

183
00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,400
Speaker 1: is that you know Everton there not only have they

184
00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,320
Speaker 1: had one shot, you know, in the last one hundred

185
00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:50,400
Speaker 1: and twenty minutes, but they're conceding the most shots for

186
00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:52,960
Speaker 1: ninety in the Premier League. The only opponent they've held

187
00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,000
Speaker 1: under one expected goal is west Ham when one of

188
00:08:56,040 --> 00:09:00,199
Speaker 1: the weirdest scores you'll see have over the last few weeks. Yes,

189
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,920
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace has been better defensively in three streight matches,

190
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,840
Speaker 1: but the reality is for overall for the season, their

191
00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:09,880
Speaker 1: defensive numbers have been pretty bad. And last season, you know,

192
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,640
Speaker 1: when these two teams met both times, the matches got

193
00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:14,840
Speaker 1: pretty wonky, you know. I know the last one it

194
00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:16,360
Speaker 1: was the second to last match of the season, but

195
00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,120
Speaker 1: there were five goals scored. I know only talk two

196
00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,680
Speaker 1: point two expected. But the other match is stillhurs Park.

197
00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,440
Speaker 1: Four goals were scored off of three you know expected.

198
00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,360
Speaker 1: So what I'll be interested to see though here, Michael,

199
00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,480
Speaker 1: is that who is going to control possession? I guess

200
00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,319
Speaker 1: it'd be Crystal Palace, Like they were able to control

201
00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,280
Speaker 1: a lot of possession until Wolves got the goal, and

202
00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:33,920
Speaker 1: they still were able to control a lot of possession

203
00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:38,040
Speaker 1: after that. But my thinking here is Lampard can't continue

204
00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,120
Speaker 1: to play this way like he just can't. There's just

205
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,200
Speaker 1: no way that he can just sit there and keep

206
00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:45,840
Speaker 1: his job getting one shot over, you know, an entire match,

207
00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,079
Speaker 1: like he has to be a little bit more aggressive.

208
00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,120
Speaker 1: So I think you'll see a little more Everton on

209
00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:52,679
Speaker 1: the front foot. Palace has been a little bit vulnerable

210
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,199
Speaker 1: in transition, So if you know, Everton can try to

211
00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,840
Speaker 1: set up and sit deep and look to counter. But

212
00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,480
Speaker 1: I mean just be honest. They also are overdue, you know,

213
00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,520
Speaker 1: just to concede some goals here. So yeah, I don't

214
00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:07,880
Speaker 1: hate a look on both teams to score. I think

215
00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,760
Speaker 1: this could get a tag wonky. So if that number drops,

216
00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,160
Speaker 1: you know it's it's plus money right now. If it

217
00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,160
Speaker 1: drops to plus one twenty, I think I gotta I

218
00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,480
Speaker 1: gotta play both teams to score. As sickening as it is.

219
00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I really don't know if he's going to do that,

220
00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:22,800
Speaker 2: like he just it seems like they're kind of content.

221
00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:25,839
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean maybe I'm wrong, if I'm wrong, but

222
00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:27,800
Speaker 1: I'm just think sitting here right because.

223
00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:29,400
Speaker 2: I'm watching every minute of it and I'm now I'm

224
00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:32,080
Speaker 2: just accustomed to this is how they play. And you

225
00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,079
Speaker 2: consider the quality competition too, Like they're not going to

226
00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,840
Speaker 2: go play balls to the wall against Spurs and Newcastle

227
00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,000
Speaker 2: two teams playing them off the pitch. United was the

228
00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,440
Speaker 2: game before that too, So yeah, I don't know. I

229
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,079
Speaker 2: think it's you make a good point, so I'll be

230
00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,560
Speaker 2: on the draw. You'll be on your goals, goals goals.

231
00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:51,920
Speaker 1: The other two draw, yeah to two.

232
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,320
Speaker 2: The other ted Am game is City their minus six

233
00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,800
Speaker 2: hundred Brighton twelve to one. The draw here is plus

234
00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,320
Speaker 2: six fifty. This was taking place at the ft Head.

235
00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:01,760
Speaker 2: City was one of the two teams along with your Arsenal,

236
00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,160
Speaker 2: to not play over the midweek in the Premier League.

237
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:07,600
Speaker 2: It's a tough spot I think for Brighton. The numbers

238
00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:09,040
Speaker 2: I think good enough if you want to play it.

239
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:11,079
Speaker 2: There's no one's going to call you crazy for ever

240
00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,680
Speaker 2: playing twelve to one at Brighton kind of so that

241
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:15,800
Speaker 2: when they played Liverpool, right, they were like nine to

242
00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:17,920
Speaker 2: one or something that never did end up crashing, but

243
00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,760
Speaker 2: when we recorded it was up there. I don't think

244
00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,559
Speaker 2: you'd be crazy to look at Brighton here.

245
00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,839
Speaker 1: No, not at all. And speaking of you know, numbers crashing,

246
00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,360
Speaker 1: this one's crashed as well. City was minus six hundred

247
00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,880
Speaker 1: before Brighton's match against Ntingham Forests. Now they're you know,

248
00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,880
Speaker 1: minus four fifty. So we've seen Desservey play two big

249
00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,520
Speaker 1: six sides. You got three three drag against Liverpool and Brighton.

250
00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:38,400
Speaker 1: You know they did only allow one point six expected

251
00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,520
Speaker 1: in that match. Then they lost one nothing to Tottenham,

252
00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,760
Speaker 1: only allowed Spurs to create point six expected goals. And

253
00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:48,280
Speaker 1: I mean this this still is a Brighton possession based

254
00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,480
Speaker 1: team that we saw under Potter because the Liverpool match

255
00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,840
Speaker 1: they actually held forty five percent possession, then sixty percent

256
00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:58,040
Speaker 1: against Tottenham and then over seventy against Brentford and Notingham

257
00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,240
Speaker 1: for US. And what Deserbe loves to do is kind

258
00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,640
Speaker 1: of what Pep is doing quite a bit of this season,

259
00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,040
Speaker 1: which is playing out from the back and essentially just

260
00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:07,760
Speaker 1: baiting teams and depress them high and then quickly moving

261
00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:11,200
Speaker 1: the ball via passing triangles, getting overloads in between the

262
00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:13,760
Speaker 1: lines and you know, or playing the ball out wide

263
00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:15,320
Speaker 1: and then just getting in behind the defense. You know,

264
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,240
Speaker 1: Pep wants to do that really, you know, get it

265
00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:19,520
Speaker 1: moving quickly because he has Early Collins now, who is

266
00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,480
Speaker 1: one of the best, pretty much the best forward in

267
00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:23,760
Speaker 1: the world that getting in behind defenses and scoring off

268
00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,199
Speaker 1: of one touch. And obviously Brighton doesn't have that type

269
00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:28,440
Speaker 1: of quality in the final third. But I'm not so

270
00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:31,400
Speaker 1: sure that if Pep knows that that's what Deservey wants

271
00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:34,000
Speaker 1: to do, I'm not sure he's just gonna, you know,

272
00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,960
Speaker 1: stick his hand in the mouse trap and just allow

273
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,120
Speaker 1: Brighton to try to play right through them. And you know,

274
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,400
Speaker 1: this is this is a bright defense that's very similar

275
00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,280
Speaker 1: to last season, like they don't allow a lot of

276
00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,120
Speaker 1: high quality chances like their third and big scoring chances allowed,

277
00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:48,480
Speaker 1: and they are top five and box entries allowed. This

278
00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,080
Speaker 1: is still a really good defense. I think we'll see

279
00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,440
Speaker 1: a somewhat of a low quality, slow type game. You know,

280
00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,400
Speaker 1: both these teams are bottom five and direct speed and

281
00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,439
Speaker 1: top five and ten plus pass sequences, so it's not

282
00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,960
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot quick you know, quick moving forward

283
00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:03,680
Speaker 1: and a lot of chances. I don't think so. I

284
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:05,720
Speaker 1: don't hate a look on under three goals at plus

285
00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:07,839
Speaker 1: one twenty, I only have two point seven projected. You

286
00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,000
Speaker 1: could say City's in a lookhead spot like they got

287
00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,280
Speaker 1: a road trip to dortmunt On Deck in the Champions League,

288
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,760
Speaker 1: which will pretty much decide the group if they can

289
00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:16,640
Speaker 1: get a draw from that. And I actually have a

290
00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,560
Speaker 1: prop in this match, Michael, I don't usual. I don't

291
00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,000
Speaker 1: actually usually play player pross, but as I was going

292
00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:23,920
Speaker 1: through this, I just this number just jumped off the

293
00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,079
Speaker 1: page to me, and it's true. Sarrd four to one

294
00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,880
Speaker 1: anytime soiled. Yeah, I mean he had the hat trick

295
00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,800
Speaker 1: against Liverpool. What was interesting is against Liverpool, Pep played

296
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,800
Speaker 1: Kinsalo at right back, which is not his natural position.

297
00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,480
Speaker 1: He's not a good a defender to begin with. And

298
00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:42,040
Speaker 1: last season he got dribbled past forty eight times, that

299
00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:43,800
Speaker 1: was bottom twenty in the Premier League. In his tackle

300
00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:45,800
Speaker 1: percentage was forty two percent, that was outside the top

301
00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,120
Speaker 1: one hundred tro starts taking the most shots for ninety

302
00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,439
Speaker 1: for Brighton, he's averaging almost one shot on goal for

303
00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:54,520
Speaker 1: ninety and you know, actually per ninety is about zero

304
00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,760
Speaker 1: point three to five, So at four to one forgetting

305
00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,319
Speaker 1: that price, especially in this type of match where he's

306
00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,520
Speaker 1: gonna have space, he's gonna be able to get bogged behind.

307
00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:04,439
Speaker 1: I don't hate it. I guess a little bit of

308
00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:04,960
Speaker 1: value on that.

309
00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, we love Troussarden on this podcast. Course, we love Gross,

310
00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:10,600
Speaker 2: We love all those guys. I mean, I'm just gonna

311
00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:12,200
Speaker 2: be on Brighton. It's not gonna be fun. I'm happy

312
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,400
Speaker 2: City Unders are back. Yeah, all right, let's move to

313
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:17,679
Speaker 2: Sunday now, but before we do, just to remind you

314
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,280
Speaker 2: that Wonder Goal is presented by BET three six y five,

315
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,240
Speaker 2: the world's favorite sports book brand. Sign Up with promo

316
00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,680
Speaker 2: code action to get BET three sixty five's exclusive sign

317
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,280
Speaker 2: up offer New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar, you

318
00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,640
Speaker 2: get two hundred free. This is a fun one for me.

319
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:36,240
Speaker 2: Sunday nine am Aston Villa hosting Brentford Villas plus one

320
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 2: oh five Brentford plus two forty. The draw here is

321
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,760
Speaker 2: plus two fifty. I really like the number at Brentford.

322
00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,440
Speaker 2: This is a situation where I think you're looking at

323
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,840
Speaker 2: the better team right now. I mean, if you want

324
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,400
Speaker 2: to look on paper, sure like Villa Prie has more talent.

325
00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,240
Speaker 2: They are the more recognizable club, but Brentford are better

326
00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:57,160
Speaker 2: than them the season and we're maybe better than them

327
00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,280
Speaker 2: last season two. I mean down the stretch. I know

328
00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,480
Speaker 2: Villas aready again better, but let's put it this way,

329
00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:05,640
Speaker 2: Thomas Franks, Brentford is better than Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa.

330
00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:09,800
Speaker 2: The numbers are telling you that, so I'll be on

331
00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,760
Speaker 2: the Bees. I think it's a good number. We've talked

332
00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,720
Speaker 2: so much about the Aston Villa attack. It doesn't threaten

333
00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,440
Speaker 2: enough for them to profile well as a favorite. You

334
00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:20,880
Speaker 2: don't want to be laying anything with this team, so

335
00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,240
Speaker 2: give me the Bees once again.

336
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,920
Speaker 1: They almost get Yeah, we're obviously recording this on Wednesday

337
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 1: night before the Aston Villa Fulham match, so you know,

338
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,800
Speaker 1: and I'm not too worried about what I'm not either, Like,

339
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 1: even if aston Villa scores a ton like they create

340
00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,040
Speaker 1: three effect goals against Fulham, it's really not going to

341
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:40,480
Speaker 1: change my exactly.

342
00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,360
Speaker 2: Smash defense because that look look at the defense they're

343
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:42,920
Speaker 2: going up again.

344
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:46,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And so I'm actually on under two and

345
00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,080
Speaker 1: a half goals at you know, yet even money. I

346
00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:50,720
Speaker 1: really don't think that under two and a half should

347
00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,080
Speaker 1: be plus money with these two offenses. I mean, as

348
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,920
Speaker 1: we sit here today. Obviously before the Fulham match, aston

349
00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,480
Speaker 1: Villa had before the Chelsea match, had created three point

350
00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,800
Speaker 1: eight expected goals in their previous six matches and the

351
00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,040
Speaker 1: only team they created over one expected goal against before

352
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,000
Speaker 1: the Chelsea match was against Leeds and they got a

353
00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:09,960
Speaker 1: red card in the fiftieth minute. So you have a

354
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,720
Speaker 1: Stephen gerrr team that is averaging point nine non penalty

355
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 1: expected goals forer match. That's sixteenth in the Premier League.

356
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,160
Speaker 1: But we've said it many times their defense is good,

357
00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 1: Like they're allowing one point zero seven non penalty expected

358
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 1: goals per match. You know they only can see it

359
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,160
Speaker 1: eight big scoring chances. They do an unbelievable job at

360
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:29,040
Speaker 1: protecting their penalty area, their third in box entries allowed.

361
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,360
Speaker 1: And Brentford, listen, we love them like they create a

362
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,880
Speaker 1: lot of big scoring chances, but they are very reliant

363
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 1: on those big scoring chances because they're eighteenth in shots

364
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,240
Speaker 1: for ninety and they're sixteenth in box entries and even look,

365
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,680
Speaker 1: any of the last five matches, Brentford hasn't created over

366
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,560
Speaker 1: one point three expected goals. So while we love them,

367
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:50,120
Speaker 1: their offense is a tad big scoring chance for reliance.

368
00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,320
Speaker 1: And you know, Aston Villa matches this season have been

369
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,480
Speaker 1: incredibly low event they're only averaging two point zero five

370
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 1: expected goals while Brentford's are are averaging two point five

371
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:01,120
Speaker 1: expected goals. So I don't think under two and a

372
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 1: half should be sitting up at plus money. So under

373
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:04,600
Speaker 1: two and a half of even money for me in

374
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:08,639
Speaker 1: this match, completely different matchup. At nine am, leads and

375
00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:12,719
Speaker 1: Fulham leads even money home favorite Fulham plus two sixty,

376
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:14,400
Speaker 1: that draws plus two fifty.

377
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:16,360
Speaker 2: I like the favorites here.

378
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 1: I like leads.

379
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,080
Speaker 2: I think this is a stylistic thing more than anything.

380
00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,240
Speaker 2: The Fulham defense is just going to leak chances and

381
00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:28,240
Speaker 2: it's going to come down to whether Leads finish off

382
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 2: you know, two or three of their fifteen and or

383
00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,680
Speaker 2: Fulham finish off two or three of their six and

384
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 2: whoever finishes better is going to cut away with this one.

385
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:39,560
Speaker 1: But I like leads here.

386
00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,719
Speaker 2: I think that they should match up well with how

387
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:44,640
Speaker 2: terrible this Fulham defense has looked.

388
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like leads too. I mean the way Marco

389
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,200
Speaker 1: Silva has managed this Fulham team and how they're playing.

390
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,440
Speaker 1: He's like the person in the relationship that absolutely knows

391
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 1: they're wrong, but we'll just fight to the death and

392
00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:00,359
Speaker 1: tell you know, and basically just continue our meant for

393
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,520
Speaker 1: years and years and eventually until he gets Fulham relegated

394
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,840
Speaker 1: because their defense is so bad and he will not

395
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 1: change a thing. They are allowing two expected goals per match.

396
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,120
Speaker 1: They've only held three opponents under one and a half

397
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 1: expected goals. It was Wolves, Nottingham, Forest and Bourne Myth,

398
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,800
Speaker 1: and they have conceded twenty four big scoring chances. This

399
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 1: defense is so so bad and leads you know, you know,

400
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 1: everybody knows. I'm a huge fan of Justin Marsh. I mean,

401
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 1: there's sixth the non penalty expected goals. They've underperformed a

402
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:28,920
Speaker 1: little bit lately, four goals off of eight point three

403
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,760
Speaker 1: expected in their last six matches, and the question surrounding

404
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 1: Leads defensively all the time is like, Okay, they're going

405
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:35,480
Speaker 1: to press a ton, They're going to leave a ton

406
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 1: of space and behind, so that usually means leaking goals.

407
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,719
Speaker 1: They're usually bottom five and XG allowed. But this season

408
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:46,800
Speaker 1: they have actually been much better defensively. Like their seventh

409
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,119
Speaker 1: they held Arsenal under one expected goal, they held Crystal

410
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 1: Palace under one expected goal in their last two matches.

411
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 1: They're seventh in box entries, loud eighth and progressive passes

412
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:57,439
Speaker 1: and drills allowed. So I think the biggest change is

413
00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 1: the fact that they just they brought in Paler Adams

414
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:03,119
Speaker 1: and Mark Roca, and those two guys are incredibly good

415
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,760
Speaker 1: at stopping opposing counter attacks when last season Calvin Phillis

416
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:08,480
Speaker 1: was injured for most of the most of the year.

417
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,199
Speaker 1: So and I mean not surprisingly, Leads is number one

418
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,360
Speaker 1: and pass per defensive action, they forced the third most

419
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,399
Speaker 1: high turnovers in the Premier League. Fulham is one of

420
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,879
Speaker 1: the worst teams at playing through pressure their nineteenth and

421
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 1: pressure success right allowed. So this is a wonderful spot

422
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:25,400
Speaker 1: for Leeds here at home. If you know, if you're

423
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,159
Speaker 1: listening to this on Thursday morning, you know, obviously you

424
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 1: can bet leads before the match against Lester, but I

425
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:32,479
Speaker 1: would if if you're wanting to wait to see how

426
00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:35,200
Speaker 1: leads plays against Lester, if they're starting to play well,

427
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,239
Speaker 1: I would I would play leads right away during the

428
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,680
Speaker 1: match because I've a feeling this number is going to

429
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 1: crash depending on what happens in the Aston Villa Fulham

430
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 1: match than this one as well. So I have Leads

431
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 1: projected at minus one twenty eight, you know, before their

432
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:49,119
Speaker 1: match against Leicester, so plus one ten I think has

433
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:50,160
Speaker 1: fantastic value.

434
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 2: Now we get to talk about your arsenal. They're traveling

435
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 2: to the South coast to take on Southampton Saints plus

436
00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 2: four to fifty at home. Arsenal odds on might as

437
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 2: to draw us plus three twenty at bet three sixty five.

438
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 2: I don't know how much of the Southampton gave me saw,

439
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:08,960
Speaker 2: but I didn't notice that they were up one nil

440
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 2: and the south hamld onto it and the Southampton fans

441
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,680
Speaker 2: even up one nil. We're calling for Ralph Hasson Hudle's job,

442
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 2: which I thought was pretty funny.

443
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, they did.

444
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 2: Hold on to it against that vaunted Bournemouth attack. Yeah, stop,

445
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 2: stop the red hot born myth. I got nothing here.

446
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 2: I think that Arsenal is not a terrible parlay piece

447
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 2: considering the way Southampton play. But I'm happy to pass

448
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 2: this one over to you.

449
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 1: I'm passing on this one as well. I mean, Southampton

450
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,719
Speaker 1: on took nine shots against Bournemouth. That's that's kind of embarrassing.

451
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 1: I mean, the reality here is is that once again,

452
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,719
Speaker 1: I don't hate the number on Arsenal, it's just it's

453
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 1: a weird spot for them because they got a Europa

454
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,640
Speaker 1: League match on Thursday, so you know, Southampton will have

455
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 1: a day's rest advantage. They are staying on the South coast, well,

456
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 1: Arsenal has to travel down there. And I mean, yeah,

457
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 1: Arsenal was you know, lucky to get the win against

458
00:20:57,920 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 1: Leeds whatever. You know, they won one nothing, the only

459
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 1: create you know, half an expected goal. But these Arsenal numbers,

460
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 1: they're just they're never going to provide any value right

461
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 1: now if they're gonna be sitting at the top of

462
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 1: the table like that's just the reality of what we're

463
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 1: doing here. You know, I have Arsenal minus one fifty three,

464
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,199
Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree with you. They might be a

465
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 1: decent parlay piece here. I mean Southampton, they We've been

466
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 1: talked about a lot. They are quite bad offensively like

467
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 1: they can't they are they can't play through pressure like

468
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 1: their dead last and offensive pass per defensive action. Arsenal

469
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: has been much better pressing high and you know, I

470
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 1: think a good picture of what Arsenal can do to

471
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: this Southampton team is is the match that essentially springboarded

472
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 1: Arsenal to a resurgent second half run last season. Is

473
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,920
Speaker 1: when Southampton was coming to the Emirates. Arsenal was at

474
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 1: their lowest after they just lost to Everton, Southampton was

475
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 1: flying high. I think we all bet Southampton in that

476
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 1: match and then Arsenal just played right through their pressure.

477
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,360
Speaker 1: They won three nothing and just went on from there.

478
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,880
Speaker 1: So I think that that's something similar that can happen here,

479
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,479
Speaker 1: or you just get another sleepy Arsenal one nil win

480
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 1: like they did against Leeds last Sunday. So be yeah,

481
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: I agree, this is just a pass and enjoy my gunners.

482
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:12,360
Speaker 2: Winning the fourth of four nine am fixtures on Sunday

483
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 2: morning Eastern time of course eight am Central time for

484
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 2: you BJ Wolverhampton are at home at the Molo. On

485
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 2: you there plus one twenty being visited by Leicester City

486
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 2: plus two twenty. The draw here is plus two forty.

487
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 1: Wolves.

488
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 2: I think are getting closer. I know they just lost

489
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 2: their Crystal Palace wasn't the best, but it just it

490
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 2: feels like when you look at their numbers, they should

491
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 2: start collecting some results at some point. But this number

492
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 2: is just way too short to against Leicester who Yeah,

493
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 2: like Lester is not good, but these two teams are

494
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 2: bang average equals to me, so he's easy another easy

495
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 2: pass for me on nine am at nine am on

496
00:22:59,160 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 2: Sunday morning.

497
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be on both teams to score no at

498
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 1: plus one twenty. It obviously lost against Crystal Palace. But

499
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,640
Speaker 1: you know Wolves only created point six expected goals, So

500
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 1: that's just the that's just the world I live in.

501
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 1: I'm putting these both teams to score nos and watching

502
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 1: teams score off of half expected goal. But with that

503
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 1: being said, we are now six matches in a row

504
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: for Wolves without creating a big scoring chance or creating

505
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: one expected goal from open play. The only two players

506
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 1: on Wolves that are averaging over point two x GP

507
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 1: per ninety is he chan Wang who hasn't even played

508
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: three full nineties yet and ral Menez who is currently injured.

509
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 1: And I'll just keep saying it, but Wolves is just

510
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 1: they're so incredibly reliant on just taking shots from outside

511
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 1: the box. Their average shot distance is eighteen point one

512
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 1: yards in the goal and forty four percent of their

513
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 1: shots come from outside the box, which where you know,

514
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 1: an average average shot from outside the box has an

515
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 1: extra rating a point zero three, So you can take

516
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,239
Speaker 1: ten fifteen shots and it's really going to amount to

517
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: nothing unless you know, you get lucky on some finishing luck.

518
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: Those outside the box shot numbers are second only to

519
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 1: their opponent, Lester, who has an average shot distance of

520
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 1: eighteen point six yards and has forty five percent of

521
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,679
Speaker 1: their shots coming from outside the box. Even look at

522
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 1: their last three matches for Lester one point one expected

523
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 1: goals against Forrest, one point two against Bournemouth and then

524
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: point nine against Pallace. Those are not encouraging signs at

525
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 1: all for Lester trying to get at the bottom of

526
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 1: the table and the one thing that Lester can hold

527
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 1: on to offensively and you know why they've had some

528
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 1: success against some teams offensively is that they are third

529
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 1: in the Premier League in offensive pass for defense faction.

530
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 1: They can play through pressure well and they can progress

531
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 1: the ball up the field well with James Madison, Harvey Barnes,

532
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 1: Teelaman's like, those guys are really good at progressing the

533
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 1: ball off the pitch. Wolves is not going to press them.

534
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: They're going to sit back in a low block. They're

535
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 1: second to last and pressures per ninety. So once again

536
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 1: you have a question mark of those last three matches,

537
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 1: is Lester gonna be able to break down a low

538
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 1: block where they're only creating one expected goal? And my

539
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 1: answer to that is probably not. So both team to

540
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 1: score no is plus one twenty and I really just

541
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 1: don't think it should be plus money. I haven't projected

542
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty nine, so I'll be back on

543
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 1: the most boring bet in soccer just at plus one twenty.

544
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, it depends on your head definition of boring.

545
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 1: Well, if you enjoy, you know, not seeing the one

546
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: thing that brings everybody join in the soccer match, then yeah,

547
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 1: the BET's pretty fun.

548
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 2: Once again, it depends on what how you look at it, Like,

549
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 2: I don't I don't want to see evident. Let end

550
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 2: goals right, all right, Now, let's pause for two seconds

551
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 2: to pay homage to Anthony before we talk about Spurs

552
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,400
Speaker 2: Tottenham There plus one hundred hosting Newcastle plus two fifty

553
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 2: the draws plus through sixty. Great first half of Newcastle

554
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 2: and then I thought they were pretty lackluster and the

555
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 2: second against Everton. We clearly have a big one like

556
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 2: man City. Then we have an almost as big three

557
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: with Liverpool Arsenal. Maybe it's just two honestly, and then

558
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 2: there's four other teams that you can say are really

559
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 2: close with Chelsea United, Spurs and Newcastle. It's annoying to admit,

560
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 2: but it's true just because of how they've obviously, how

561
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 2: they've achieved that status. Is it different from how City has.

562
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,360
Speaker 2: I don't know. That's for stuff for another podcast to discuss.

563
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 2: We'll discuss it from a betting perspective, and from a

564
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 2: betting perspective, I think Newcastle is worth a shot here,

565
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 2: and I feel like Anthony would agree with me.

566
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 1: Yeah.

567
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 2: I just want to bring up two prices on the

568
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 2: board here because they're basically sitting at the same same price. Right,

569
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 2: Spurs even money at home against Newcastle and Chelsea even

570
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 2: money at home against United. I'll be on the underdog

571
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 2: in both of them because I really think that all

572
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 2: four of these teams are like if they played one

573
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 2: hundred times, each team's probably taking twenty five to thirty

574
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 2: of them. So yeah, I'll be on Newcastle here. The

575
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 2: underlying numbers. We've talked about it. They keep getting better.

576
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 2: Don't think I'm too worried about the stylistic issues with

577
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 2: Spur planting when you play Spurs. I don't think Newcastle

578
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 2: will be with gemerage. I know Lincoln left hurt, so

579
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 2: that's a little upsetting. We're a Newcastle bet, but I

580
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,919
Speaker 2: just don't think they'll be susceptible to the Tottenham counters

581
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 2: as other teams who like to keep the ball on

582
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 2: the floor.

583
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: It's weird, you know. The two matches for Tottenham that

584
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: you can point at and be like, hey, like they

585
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: looked really, really bad. Was the match against Arsenal and

586
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 1: then this last match against Manchester United where it just

587
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 1: seemed like they couldn't even string a pass together. I mean,

588
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 1: to dam got it they were.

589
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 2: They weren't that good against Chelsea either, No, they really,

590
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: they really weren't.

591
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: They got a couple. You know, they got a couple

592
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: you know, they went down to nothing and then they

593
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 1: got a couple chances that went in, but no, they

594
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: were tied. Sorry, excuse me, now, they didn't go down

595
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 1: to nothing anyway. I mean yeah, today, like they couldn't

596
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 1: string any passes together. They got out shot twenty eight

597
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 1: to nine. United just lived in there. You know, in United,

598
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 1: who is not a good pressing team, was able to

599
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:51,439
Speaker 1: press Tottenham effectively. Newcastles forced the most high turnovers in

600
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: the Premier League. Like their passes for defensive action is

601
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 1: top five this year. Like they have turned into a

602
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: really really good team. They have a better expected goldfferential

603
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 1: than Tottenham. Even with that being said, like I do

604
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 1: project a little bit of value on Tottenham. You know,

605
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: it has to do with with prior your data. Anthony

606
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: will probably you know, scream at me saying Tottenham was

607
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 1: not a plus one actually differential team for ninety last season.

608
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,679
Speaker 1: The numbers are what they are, Anthony. So it's a

609
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 1: very interesting matchup because you can say, is Newcastle doing

610
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 1: a hold a lot of possession, are they going to

611
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 1: be able to do what essentially what United was able

612
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: to do to Tottenham today? On the road at Whiteheart Lane.

613
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if. I don't know if after to

614
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: day's performance, I think Antonio Conte will be discouraged and

615
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 1: alask his team to provide a little bit more energy,

616
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 1: control the ball more. I think that would benefit Tottenham

617
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: greatly if they decided to play a little more aggressive.

618
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 1: E Shock is out for Newcastle, Saint maximum is doubtful,

619
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: So a couple of positives there for Tottenham. I do

620
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: think the number is about correct. It is interesting because

621
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: you think about it. You know, Manchester United was even

622
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 1: money against Newcastle the previous match and then now they

623
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 1: have a common opponent. Tottenham at least has a common

624
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 1: opponent now and they just got you know, throttled by

625
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: United today, So you could make that case. But yeah,

626
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: for me, I'm just I'm staying away. I'm just gonna

627
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 1: be very, very interested to see how Tottenham plays in

628
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 1: this one, because, like you said, like against big you know,

629
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: against the Big six, they've they've struggled. H They've they've struggled.

630
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 1: So if you know Newcastle, which we think, you know,

631
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: with the amount of money they're pouring into the team,

632
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: you know, five years from now, there might it might

633
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: be a Big seven, who knows.

634
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 2: I mean it's closer than that.

635
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: Like yeah, so it's this is a if you you know,

636
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: this is probably what for me, one of the more

637
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 1: interesting matches to see. Okay, where is Newcastle pegged up

638
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: around the Big six and it is Tottenham just beating

639
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 1: up on the lower half of the table or can

640
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: they actually compete with the team the teams in the

641
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: higher half because before today they're only four points off

642
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 1: Arsenal like they were it was their best start since

643
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 1: the nineteen sixties, like and and you know, and you know,

644
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:57,719
Speaker 1: fans like Anthony are talking about like, oh, I just

645
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: I hate the way they play, like they just you know,

646
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: there's still problems. It's not all it's not all good

647
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 1: in Tottenham Land, and like, you know, it's it's interesting.

648
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 1: So I think this match is going to be very,

649
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 1: very interesting. But yeah, so I'm passing, but because I

650
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 1: think the numbers correct.

651
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: And one thing I want to bring up with Newcastle

652
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: too is we're now closing in on a year uh

653
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 2: since that January transfer window when they brought in Bruno,

654
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 2: when they brought in her and Trippa when they brought

655
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 2: in uh, you know, even like Dan Burney, Chris what

656
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: like the team is now where you're from, Eddie how

657
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 2: Movie Joe Linton from you know, up front to the

658
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: defensive midfield. Like they're much more cohesive unit. They're not

659
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 2: like just a bunch of uh, you know, talented players.

660
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 2: Now that that's it's it's it's actually a team. They've

661
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: had a good goalkeeper. Uh, They're they're formidable.

662
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: Yeah. And you know one thing I'll be interested to see,

663
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: you know, they have uh have Astonville in Southampton next.

664
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 1: I'll be just really interesting to see what the prices

665
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: are for those batches, to see how the markets are

666
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 1: they going to start. You know, obviously it depends on

667
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: what happens in this one, but is new Yeah, I'm

668
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: going to start to get completely overvalued and we have

669
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: the stomach you know in aston Villa plus one or

670
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 1: Southampton plus one and a half. I don't know, we'll see.

671
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: We start to see it two seasons ago maybe I

672
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 2: think it was two seasons ago and then a little

673
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 2: last year with west Ham. But there was like this

674
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 2: thing within the market where you'd see the Big six

675
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 2: get priced where they were or it was really like

676
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 2: the Big five because Arsenal hadn't really found it yet,

677
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 2: and then you'd have like the Lester and then where

678
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 2: we're struggling out of that Big Six be kind of

679
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 2: price in their own little universe. So that's Newcastle right now.

680
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 2: I think we'll start to see them continue to trend up.

681
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 1: There is a.

682
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: Monday night football match. It is west Ham minus one

683
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: eighty eight hosting Bournemouth plus four seventy five drug Ears

684
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 2: plus three thirty three. This is an interesting battle between

685
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 2: the worst offense in the Premier League and one of

686
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 2: the better defensive units this season under David Moyes. So

687
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 2: everything would kind of point you to a west Ham

688
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 2: win and west Ham win to nil, maybe them as

689
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 2: another parlay piece, But I just think minus one eighty

690
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 2: eight is probably a little too much considering west Ham

691
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 2: aren't going to just play you off the pitch and

692
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 2: cover you know that I can get that margin needed

693
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 2: to cover that kind of number.

694
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean west Ham to win nil is plus

695
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: one fifty five right now, so that's actually a pretty

696
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: decent price. But I actually do like west Ham minus

697
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 1: one minus one ten. I think it's a perfect blowout

698
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: spot for them. You know, the last two matches against

699
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: Southampton and Liverpool. They created you know, total over four

700
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: expected goals only scored once. And you look at their schedule,

701
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: you know they've played a couple of teams that are

702
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: sat back in low blocks against them. They created three

703
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: point three against Fulham and then two point one x

704
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 1: she against Southampton. West Ham, against teams currently in the

705
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 1: bottom half of the table this season, have created nine

706
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: point six expected goals on alloted of four point three

707
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 1: and six matches. So they're able to actually get margin

708
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: from a chance creation standpoint against pretty bad teams. And

709
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: you know, awesome offensive aggression hit more them today. You know,

710
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: going to Southampton match, we already talked about it. Five

711
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 1: point nine expected goals created, scored ten, created a little

712
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 1: over one expected goal today. Unable to find the back

713
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 1: of the net. And defensively, I know I've been saying like, hey,

714
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: their low block has actually been kind of effective against

715
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: non big six sides. But here are the non big

716
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 1: six sides they've played Aston, Villa, Wolves, Newcastle, Brentford, Forrest,

717
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 1: Bulham and Southampton. I would say only one of those

718
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: offenses is on park currently with where west Ham is

719
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: certainly trending towards after the last few matches and it's Newcastle.

720
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: And in that match Newcastle created over two expected goals

721
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 1: they got off nineteen shots and then forty one touches

722
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: in born this penalty area. So I think it's a good,

723
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: good blowout spot here for West Ham. I actually don't

724
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 1: project much value on it, but I am taking the

725
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: Hammers minus one at minus one ten given their form

726
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 1: over the last few matches.

727
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe this is when we start to see Bournemouth

728
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 2: just crashed down the table, starting with yeah Southampton all right, Ian, Yeah,

729
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 2: you want to take a quick stroll around Europe now, sure,

730
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 2: But before we do, let's just remind the listeners that

731
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 2: Wonder Goal is presented by bet three six five, the

732
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 2: world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign Up with promo code action

733
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 2: to get Betrie six five exclusive sign up off for

734
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 2: New Jersey and Colorado on any game get two hundred free,

735
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:07,239
Speaker 2: and we do thank you, dear listener for tuning in

736
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:08,839
Speaker 2: twice a week every week.

737
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:11,479
Speaker 1: The Fat Cats.

738
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 2: The higher ups, including our producer Director of Audio Matt Mitchell,

739
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 2: is thrilled with how the podcast is growing and wanted

740
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 2: me to remind you as well that if you leave

741
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 2: a five star review, on Apple Podcasts for Wonder Goal

742
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 2: and leave your email, your Twitter handle however you want

743
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: us to get in touch with you. He will come

744
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 2: and find you and gift you a year long subscription

745
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 2: to Action Pro. So make sure to do that once again.

746
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 2: Just leave it a review. Make sure it's a five

747
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 2: star review. You can write whatever you want in the review.

748
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:46,919
Speaker 2: As long as it's five stars. You can just tear

749
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 2: me apart for continuing to tell you to.

750
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: You can us all you want that evidence five stars.

751
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 2: Just leave the five stars.

752
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the Bundesliga.

753
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,919
Speaker 2: First. I liked your pick. I was I was thinking

754
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,439
Speaker 2: about the money line here. It's our fate of our

755
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 2: favorite top team in yeah, five, but it's the team

756
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 2: that you're that you're going to be fading them with

757
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 2: is just got awful.

758
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,240
Speaker 1: Yeah. I want to throw up with this pick, like truly,

759
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: I want to. When I when I was going through

760
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 1: the card, I don't really like much on this slate,

761
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: but this one I actually predicted some value on it,

762
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: and I was just like, you know what, let's just

763
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 1: do it. Let's throw up and let's hope we can

764
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 1: win this one. Bocom plus half a gold minus one

765
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: ten at home against league leaders on Berlin become is

766
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: the worst team in the Budesliga. Like they have terrible metrics,

767
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:35,359
Speaker 1: but those metrics are a little inflated. They lost seven

768
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 1: nothing to Buyern, they allowed four expected goals to Freiburg,

769
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: they lost four nothing to arbie Leipzig, and they also

770
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 1: allowed four over four expected goals in that their last

771
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,319
Speaker 1: two matches though, they beat Frankfurt three nothing at home.

772
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 1: Then they lost Stuttgart on the road for one. But

773
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: that match is kind of interesting because XG was dead even.

774
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 1: It was two point one to two point one, Stutgart

775
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: had a penalty in there, possession was even shots or even,

776
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 1: and Bokum actually had more touches in the penalty era

777
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 1: and more box entries than Stuttgard, and I mean, Union villain,

778
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:03,760
Speaker 1: I don't even know what to say at this point.

779
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 1: They've they've they have they have nine point four expected

780
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 1: goals and ten matches they've scored I believe eighteen. That

781
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 1: nine point four also is just point two better than Bokum. Offensively,

782
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 1: Union's created five big scoring chances. One of those was

783
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 1: just a one of the worst goal keeping mistakes you'll

784
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: ever see for dortmundt go hope, you're just fell down

785
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 1: and allowed Blinn to tap it in. But Bln also

786
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 1: fifteenth and expected threat. And just from a projection standpoint,

787
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 1: I have Unyon Berlin projected at plus one twenty nine.

788
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 1: Apply to odds on that as forty three point six percent

789
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,320
Speaker 1: five thirty eight as Union Berlin at forty five percent.

790
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 1: So if you can stomach it, Bocum plus half a

791
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: goal minus one ten does have some value. Yeah, this

792
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: is also this will also be a match that'll be

793
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,919
Speaker 1: very funny if like Bochum actually wins it and you'll

794
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 1: see all the headlines of like, oh my gosh, like

795
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 1: league leaders Unon Berlin go down to the work to

796
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 1: this is first place versus last place. In first place

797
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,240
Speaker 1: is only minus one ten, right.

798
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I like the Bokum money line. It's

799
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 2: three to one, which is crazy when you consider the

800
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 2: places in the standings. I also wonder like at one

801
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 2: point the Unan Berlin thing if they win this game,

802
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 2: let's say, like let's like, let's say we get to

803
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 2: the World Cup, if they're still hanging around first or

804
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 2: in first. When it starts to become like a mainstream thing,

805
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 2: because you hear a little bit about talk about it

806
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 2: on soccer podcasts. Granted, the ones that I listened to

807
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: are basically slanted very very heavily towards Premier League, and

808
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 2: they'll check in on the other European leagues during Champions

809
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 2: League whatever, So I wonder when that is gonna kind

810
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 2: of break into.

811
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, here's here's Unyan's schedule before the World Cup.

812
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 1: They got obvious a couple of your a couple of

813
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: Europa League matches, but they have glod Bach on deck

814
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 1: that's a home. Then they go on the road to

815
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 1: Lebrakusen and they got Augsburg and Freiburg. So there's like

816
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 1: three teams in there that are near nearer should be

817
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 1: near the top of the table. So it'll be interesting.

818
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see if they can continue to,

819
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 1: you know, do what they're doing to those teams.

820
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 2: Leipzig minus one and a half there plus one. That

821
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 2: numbers plus one thirty eight at bat three six five

822
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 2: against Augsburg. Augsburg second worst expectacle allowed and expected gole

823
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:15,280
Speaker 2: differential in the Budesliga. But they're sitting twelve two points

824
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 2: behind excusely two places behind Leipzig, who have the second

825
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 2: best expected points in the Bundesliga, but they're in tenth.

826
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,800
Speaker 2: So we're just looking at two teams going in different directions,

827
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 2: and there's obviously some blowout potential when you're looking at

828
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 2: a team as bad as Augsburg and one as good

829
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 2: as Leipzig. Gets a little daunting with the look ahead

830
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 2: spot for Leipzig looking ahead to the Champions League. But

831
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 2: I'll take it. I'll lay the goal in a half Spain.

832
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 2: Now we're both on the same one. You like, the

833
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 2: spread is gonna be take the money line, but this.

834
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 1: Is gonna be a party.

835
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:45,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, this might be the game of the weekend.

836
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:48,760
Speaker 1: Yeah. The thing is is Barcelona is in a really

837
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 1: difficult schedule in terms of you know, the fixers they've had,

838
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 1: they've you know, they've they obviously played enter in the

839
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 1: Champions League in the Mantel Clasico against Real Madrid. They're

840
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 1: playing the Real on Thursday, Bill boo on Sunday, and

841
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 1: then you know, a must win spot and a massive

842
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 1: lookhead spot with Byron at home in the Champions League,

843
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 1: a match they absolutely have to win if they want

844
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 1: any chance to progress to the Round of sixteen and

845
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: save themselves from financial bankruptcy. But Bill Boo. I mean

846
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:19,800
Speaker 1: they are. They're number one in Spain and expected goals allowed.

847
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,240
Speaker 1: The only team that's created over one expected goal against

848
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: them was Sabia and it was basically because they created

849
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 1: a one big scoring chance in the fourth minute. Other

850
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 1: than that, nobody's done anything against them. Like, they have

851
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 1: a plus nine point five expected goldenferential that's second in

852
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 1: La Liga. Like, this team is really good and their

853
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 1: manager or Nesto val Verde, former Barcelona manager. It's it's

854
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 1: a it's a great great spot here for athletic Bill Boo,

855
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: who doesn't play any you know, European competitions. Barcelona lookhead spot.

856
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 1: You know bill Bao has bill out played on on

857
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 1: Tuesday against Catafe. They'll have two days of rest advantage

858
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 1: over Barcelona, so and you might see Barcelona kind of

859
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 1: rotate a few guys since they do have Byron on deck.

860
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 1: So yeah, great spot here for Bill Boo. I'm I'm

861
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 1: on them plus one at minus one p fifteen.

862
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take the money line you get four to one.

863
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 2: One of the great things about the athletic club Billbout

864
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 2: if you listen to us last year, we were on

865
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 2: them a lot. Just quickly with their story is they're

866
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:16,359
Speaker 2: from the Basque country in Spain. They don't buy any

867
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 2: players in the transfer market. You have to be from

868
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 2: the Basque country. You have to go through their academy

869
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 2: to play for them.

870
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 1: So when they are.

871
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 2: Good, the whole bill Boo community gets behind them. There

872
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 2: it's always really fun when bill Boo is good, Like

873
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 2: when they're they're falling a little adrift of the top

874
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 2: of the league's there, you know, if they need to

875
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 2: drink together some results to get in there, but even

876
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 2: if they're challenging for a Champions League spot, So it's

877
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 2: a fun team to get behind. And this is a

878
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 2: huge match, So I like Los Leones on the money

879
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 2: line against Barcelona. Now'll turn it over to you for

880
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:45,720
Speaker 2: Syria A and league.

881
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean Syria A has you know another

882
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 1: probably match of the weekend, Roma versus Napoli. I mean, listen,

883
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: Napoli has been incredible. They're a top of Syria A.

884
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 1: They have a plus twelve point nine expect a golden

885
00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:00,359
Speaker 1: frenchial number one offense in Italy by x G. But

886
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 1: the reality is that Roma's underlying metrics are just as good,

887
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 1: if not better than Napolis. Roma has a plus thirteen

888
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 1: point one expect goal differential only a plus four actual

889
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 1: goal differential. They're the number one defense in Italy and

890
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 1: Jose Marino's side has only allowed seven expected goals in

891
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 1: ten matches. And what is crazy is in typical Jose

892
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 1: fashion going to do He just lets people bring the

893
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 1: ball into the final third without much resistance. Like they're

894
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,320
Speaker 1: allowing a decent number of shots there. They're even in

895
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: the bottom half of the of Syria I and progressive

896
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: passes and dribbles allowed, passes per defense, faction and crosses

897
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 1: allowed in the penel area, but Jose's teams will not

898
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: allow you to create anything of quality. Roma's average XTG

899
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 1: allowed for shot is point zero six. I'm pretty sure

900
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 1: that's the best mark of anybody across Europe. Their average

901
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: shot distance allowed is nineteen point seven yards in the

902
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 1: goal and they've allowed just two big scoring chances this season. Also,

903
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 1: if you look at Napoli's schedule, it really hasn't been

904
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 1: that difficult. You know, they obviously have performed well in

905
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 1: the Champions League, but the toughest team they've played in

906
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 1: Syria I has been AC Milan, and eight of their

907
00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 1: ten matches have come against teams currently in the bottom

908
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 1: half of the table, while Roma, on the other hand,

909
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 1: has only had five Their ten matches have come against

910
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: teams in the bottom half of the table, and they've

911
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 1: already had to play Juventus Enter and on Alatta. So essentially,

912
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 1: I'm getting the better team on exg numbers, who has

913
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: played a more different, difficult schedule and is at home

914
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 1: and they're an underdog. So I like Roma DRAWNO bet

915
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 1: at plus one ten.

916
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 2: And nothing for you in league Ooh so yeah, I

917
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 2: gotta take a break.

918
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 1: I'm getting murdered. So let's move on.

919
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 2: Let's move on to our favorite underdogs for the weekend.

920
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 1: I'll go first.

921
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 2: I like United Manchester United plus two sixty at Chelsea.

922
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 2: I just don't think there's too much separating these two

923
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 2: sides right now. You look at what Chelsea has been

924
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 2: doing over the last few years oulds since Graham Potter came.

925
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 2: They're overperforming their spectacles by quite a bit. Really lucky

926
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 2: win against Astonville, a really lucky draw against Brentford. Meanwhile,

927
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 2: the United defense, which has been their Achilles heel, is

928
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 2: starting to look like it has some form of life,

929
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 2: and maybe it's Casimiro getting embedded in the side. It's

930
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 2: maybe a little continuity with the center backs. They're getting

931
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 2: healthier back there, and like you said, BJ, there's a

932
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:07,800
Speaker 2: ton of big injuries for Chelsea to deal with. Conte

933
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:11,360
Speaker 2: Reech James down the list. It's not good, Thiago Silva.

934
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,879
Speaker 2: So I think this is a good spot to back

935
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 2: Manchester United plus two sixty on the route. Yeah.

936
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 1: I like Shauca plus three seventy five on the road

937
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 1: at hurt their balin on Sunday. This is an interesting

938
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 1: spot because you've hurt their Berlin sitting at minus one

939
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 1: thirty five when I don't really think that they're that

940
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: much better than Chaka currently. I mean, hurt the ballin

941
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 1: as a minus four point five they expected gold defential

942
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,800
Speaker 1: shaukas sitting at minus five. Chaka's got some new manager bounce.

943
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 1: They got beat three to nothing by Hoffenheim hoff and

944
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 1: nine had two penalties, and then they played Hoffenheim again

945
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 1: in the DFB Pocale they lost five to one. They

946
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 1: fired their manager, Frank Kramer, so a little bit of

947
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 1: new manager bounce here. There's really just nothing to like

948
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 1: about hurt their Berlin right now. I mean they're at

949
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 1: thirteenth the non penalty expected goals four, they're fourteenth and

950
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 1: expected goals against Shauka. I mean they're they're on a

951
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: five match you know, losing streak. But you look at

952
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,879
Speaker 1: the teams that they've faced near the bottom of the table.

953
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 1: They lost two to three to Augsburg, beat them on

954
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 1: expected goals two point two to one point one. They

955
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 1: beat Okum three one, beat them on expected goals, they

956
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 1: drew one one with a Stutgard they beat them two

957
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:12,800
Speaker 1: point five two point nine on expected goals. So teams

958
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 1: are playing near the bottom of the table or teams

959
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 1: that are similar quality to hurt the Blin they're actually

960
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: playing very well against. So I think this number's way

961
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 1: too inflate on Hurth the Blin Well new manager.

962
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:26,799
Speaker 2: Bounce for Shaalka plus three seventy five BJ and I

963
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 2: decided before the podcast that if Anthony was here and

964
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 2: not at the Smashing Pumpkins concert, he would probably take

965
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 2: Newcastle against Spurs. So if you just take R two

966
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: underdogs that's United at Chalcat, it's a sixteen to one.

967
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 2: If you throw a new Castle in there, it's fifty

968
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 2: nine to one and that's going to hit. So you

969
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 2: might want to do.

970
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 1: It all right.

971
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:48,879
Speaker 2: Now, let's look at our favorite bets in the Premier

972
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 2: League for the upcoming weekend.

973
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 1: I'll go first.

974
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:54,319
Speaker 2: I like Brentford the Bees there plus two forty on

975
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 2: the road at Aston Villa. We've set a time and

976
00:44:56,520 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 2: time again this Esson Villa attack just won't scare anybody.

977
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 2: They might pacet Fulham on Thursday, but that's more commentary

978
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 2: on Fulham's terrible defense than it is on Asi Villa's attack.

979
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 2: And there's some you know, extenuating circumstances here. Villa manager

980
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:14,399
Speaker 2: Steven Gerrard is on the hot seat. Meanwhile, you look

981
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 2: at Brentford and they are just a picture of chemistry

982
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 2: and continuity, the efforts there every night. You know what

983
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 2: you're going to get out of the Bees. You just

984
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 2: don't know what you're going to get out of Villa.

985
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 2: They profile as a bad favor because they just don't

986
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 2: get the separation needed. I'm on the Bees, a team

987
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 2: that always punches up well at big numbers. So plus

988
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,439
Speaker 2: two forty against the Villa team that I frankly think

989
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 2: that they're better than the expected goals numbers. Bear that

990
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,879
Speaker 2: out come on your Bees, like.

991
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 1: Leeds plus one ten at home against Fulham. This Fulham

992
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 1: defense is the worst in the Premier League. They're a

993
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 1: lying close to two expected goals per match. They only

994
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 1: opponents that have created over one and a half expected

995
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: goals against them are Wolves, Nottingham, Forrest and Bournemouth, and

996
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 1: they have conceded twenty four big scoring chances on the season.

997
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: Leeds comes into this match obviously recording this before their

998
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:03,800
Speaker 1: match against Leicester on Thursday. But the previous six matches

999
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 1: they have scored four goals have created eight point three

1000
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 1: expected so they are due for some positive aggression. The

1001
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 1: question that always surrounds Leeds is their defense. They press

1002
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 1: a lot, their number one and passive per defensive action,

1003
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:16,280
Speaker 1: but they do lead a lot of open space in behind.

1004
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 1: But this season's been a little different because they brought

1005
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 1: in Tyler Adams. They brought in Mark Rocca and suddenly

1006
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 1: their seventh in progressive passes and dribbles allowed. Teams aren't

1007
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,839
Speaker 1: able to progress up. It's them, Like I already mentioned,

1008
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 1: number one passive per defensive action, the third and the

1009
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:34,359
Speaker 1: Premier League in high turnovers. Fulham nineteenth the Maier League

1010
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: playing through pressure. So this is a great spot here

1011
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 1: for Leeds at home had a good number at plus

1012
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 1: one ten. I have them projected minus one twenty eight.

1013
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 1: So always been a huge fan of Jesse Marsh, so

1014
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,319
Speaker 1: give me leads plus one ten.

1015
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 2: All right, That wraps up another episode of Wonderful for

1016
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 2: Anthony de Bundo, for BJ Huntingham. I. Michael Leebop bes

1017
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 2: of luck with all your bets over the weekend, and

1018
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 2: we will see you again on Monday morning.

1019
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 1: Flat sandars surs, flat sand unders, a flash and the

1020
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 1: flambers Shire