1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Proud Auto with the 4 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: It's going to be a busy week here in Washington 7 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:30,639 Speaker 2: as one hundred and eighteenth Congress tries to wrap up 8 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 2: its work for the year. That, of course, will include 9 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:36,519 Speaker 2: finding a way to keep the government open past midnight 10 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 2: on Friday, where the deadline is, and we have no 11 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,559 Speaker 2: deal yet as to how exactly that happens. We know 12 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 2: it will be a stopgap measure of sometime likely going 13 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 2: into March. We just don't know how exactly the sausage 14 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 2: is going to be made and what compromise the Democrat 15 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 2: and Republican leaders in both chambers will reach. 16 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 3: But we do know what does need to. 17 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 2: Get done and get a signature from President Biden, buy 18 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 2: that deadline on Friday, so that when we come back 19 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 2: in January and the one hundred and nineteenth Congress takes 20 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 2: its seats, they can get started on their to do list, 21 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 2: and certainly the incoming chairs of the various committees in 22 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 2: the House have to do lists of their own, and 23 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 2: one of them is joining us now here on Bloomberg 24 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 2: TV and Radio. He was just named the incoming chair 25 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 2: of the House Financial Services Committee, and his live with 26 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 2: me from Capitol Hill. Congressman French Hill of Arkansas. Congratulations sir, 27 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 2: first and foremost for getting the gabble here, and I 28 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 2: do want to get into everything you want to accomplish 29 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: in financial services in the two years ahead. Could we 30 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 2: just begin, though, with what exactly is going to happen 31 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 2: this week? Is there's not a lot of time to 32 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 2: work with here, and I wonder if the seventy two 33 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 2: hour rule to read this stopgap legislation after its released 34 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 2: is going. 35 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 3: To have to be waived. 36 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 4: Well, Kayley, it's always good to be with you. Thanks 37 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 4: for having me. Usually we hope to have that bill 38 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 4: post it over the weekend, and we didn't see it, 39 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 4: so you're right, we may be cons it with a 40 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 4: tight time frame in order to review it before we 41 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 4: have to vote on it and get the Senate to 42 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 4: approve it before Friday. 43 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 2: Well, that certainly is true. And when we talk about 44 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 2: it being a deal making here we understand that the 45 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 2: Speaker is looking for economic aid to farmers and might 46 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 2: need to offer out something else to Democrats in exchange 47 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 2: for that. Are you concerned at all about what additional 48 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 2: provisions Democrats want could work its way into this continuing resolution? 49 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 4: Well, sure, because the real issue is that the continuing 50 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 4: resolution be done at the Fiscal Responsibility Act levels. This 51 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 4: is the agreement. I think the Speaker's done an outstanding 52 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 4: job negotiating that. But our farm counties in this country 53 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 4: are facing a crisis. The last three years have been 54 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 4: bad on pricing. There were high supplies and number of 55 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 4: commodities this year which depressed price furthers. So they've had 56 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 4: high costs from the Ukraine invasion plus now low prices 57 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 4: this year. So it's tough to be refinanced if you've 58 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 4: had three bad years of a row. I was an 59 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 4: ag lender many many years ago in banking, so I 60 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 4: know how tough that is. The Speaker is trying to 61 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 4: get a deal where we just simply help the farm economy. 62 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 4: I don't know why the Democrats are trying to take 63 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,640 Speaker 4: advantage of farmers who are hurting. This is not like 64 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,079 Speaker 4: it's a Republican policy. It's an American policy and try 65 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 4: to help these farmers get through a tough period. 66 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you raise your background is once being 67 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 2: a lender and community banker, sir, as, we understand that 68 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 2: is one of the reasons why you were able to 69 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 2: win the gavel in what was a competitive race for 70 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 2: the Chairmanship of Financial Services. So let's get into what 71 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 2: you want to accomplish. I'd like to begin with crypto 72 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 2: as this is Bloomberg TV and Radio. We obviously saw, 73 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 2: as you shared the Digital Asset Subcommittee, through your committee 74 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 2: and the House, the passage of the FIT twenty one 75 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 2: Act Crypto Market Structure legislation that divvied up responsibilities between 76 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 2: the CFTC and SEC. 77 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 3: Are you going to start. 78 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 2: There and make changes or would you rather start from 79 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 2: scratch when it comes to crypto market structure? 80 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 4: Well, first, Dusty Johnson from South Dakota and Gt. Thompson 81 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,280 Speaker 4: of Pennsylvania, both on the AD Committee, where my partners. 82 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 4: They'll be my partners again in this Congress. We don't 83 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 4: have a learning curve here. We can take the lessons 84 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 4: that we learned in one hundred and eighteenth Congress by 85 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 4: producing FIT, which was a bill that got seventy one 86 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 4: Democratic votes here in the House, and the work that 87 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 4: Chairman mckenry did with the ranking Member Maxine Waters on 88 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 4: a stable coin bill. 89 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 3: Both those will be. 90 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 4: Priorities coming into the new Congress. We want to work 91 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 4: with the Trump administration and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim 92 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 4: Scott and try to get all of us on the 93 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 4: same page as to how do we proceed in one 94 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 4: hundred and nineteenth. We've got new interest in the Senate. 95 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 4: Bill Haggerty of Tennessee introduced his own bill in and 96 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 4: around digital assets just before the election. 97 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,919 Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider though the actual market structure 98 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 2: questions here, Obviously, when FIT twenty one was passed, Gary 99 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 2: Gensler was the chair of the SEC s he is 100 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 2: now that will be changing in the new administration. Presumably 101 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 2: it will be Paul Atkins, And I wonder if you're 102 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 2: more comfortable with the SEC having greater authority over crypto 103 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 2: compared to the CFTC under that kind of regime, if 104 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 2: it's no longer going to be Gary Gensler at the helm. 105 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 4: Well, we didn't draft the FIT twenty one legislation because 106 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 4: Gary Gensler was the chairman of the SEC. We drafted 107 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,720 Speaker 4: it because we thought there needed to be clear, transparent, transparent, 108 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 4: fit for purpose rules of the road for digital asset 109 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:43,160 Speaker 4: companies so that tokens that are on a decentralized functioning 110 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 4: blockchain are treated differently. They're not treated as securities. And 111 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 4: we put that in law and defined exactly how to 112 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 4: do it. And I think that's still important for the 113 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 4: SEC under President Trump and Paul Atkins as the chairman elect, 114 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 4: because there's some things you can do by exemptive relief 115 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:02,919 Speaker 4: at the SEC, but there are other things that you 116 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 4: actually need statutory work for. We're prepared to work with 117 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,479 Speaker 4: the new chairman the new Commission, but permanent changes come 118 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 4: from making legal changes, not just doing exemptive relief at 119 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 4: the Commission. So I prefer a legislative solution, but I 120 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 4: want to work with the chairman and see how we 121 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 4: can work together. 122 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 5: Well. 123 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:26,159 Speaker 2: And I do wonder about the working with not just 124 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 2: other chairmen in the House and in the Senate, but 125 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 2: others in this administration, like say David Sachs, Congressman, what 126 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 2: is your relationship like with him or with other agencies 127 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 2: that we understand the White House. We'll be giving a 128 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 2: voice here in the shaping of crypto policy. 129 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 4: Well, we had a great relationship with the banking regulators, 130 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 4: the Treasury and the White House and the Biden administration 131 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 4: on this topic, and I expect this will be even 132 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 4: better in the Trump administration. The National Economic Council, with 133 00:06:54,279 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 4: Kevin Hastrett and Treasury Secretary Designate Descent, the banking Supervisor 134 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 4: that President Trump will appoint, all of us will work 135 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 4: together along with the SEC Chairman on crafting the best 136 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 4: policy for digital assets. We want America to have a 137 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 4: growth policy and a fairness and a transparent policy on 138 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 4: how to have a digital asset economy here in America 139 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 4: that produces growth. We want to add employees here. We 140 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 4: don't want this business driven offshore as we witness during 141 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 4: the Gensler and Biden Harris regime. 142 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 2: Well, we know the President elect has talked about making 143 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 2: the US the bitcoin capital of the world. He's also 144 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 2: floated this notion, Sir, of a bitcoin reserve. Do you 145 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 2: have any concerns with an establishment of that? 146 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 4: Well, actually, I think Senator Loomis floated the idea of 147 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 4: the reserve, and President Trump heard about it when he 148 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 4: was at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville during July This 149 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 4: is something that has to be looked at carefully if 150 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 4: that has benefits to the US Treasury and to the 151 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 4: US balance sheet, and I'm sure Congress and members on 152 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 4: both sides of the capital will do that. 153 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 2: As we get into other banking matters as well, would 154 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 2: you support a move to abolish the FDIC and to 155 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 2: fold its duties into the Treasury Department. 156 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 4: I think you've got to look at whatever proposals that 157 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 4: the incoming administration has as part of a matrix, like 158 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 4: what is the big picture objective here? Most people in 159 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 4: Congress want outstanding, coordinated, harmonized supervision of our financial institutions 160 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 4: that encourage new banks, encourage growth, encourage of fair minded 161 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,679 Speaker 4: rules and the capital standards. And they don't want to 162 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 4: create a situation where our community banks are going out 163 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 4: of business because they can't comply with all the rules. 164 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 4: And we want tailoring, that is, we want smaller banks 165 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 4: with simpler balance sheets and simpler strategies to be treated 166 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 4: differently than a big, large, complex company like City Bank 167 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 4: or JP Morgan Chase. But we're willing to listen to 168 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 4: what proposals that the administration has on supervisory changes. 169 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 2: So that's not a no that you wouldn't necessarily be 170 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 2: opposed from the start on abolishing the FDIC or shifting 171 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 2: the way in which that insurance mechanism actually happens in 172 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 2: the US. 173 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 4: Well, I don't personally, I've never seen anybody submit an 174 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 4: idea like that. I've read about it in the newspaper. 175 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 4: But I think deposit insurance is an important feature. We 176 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 4: want to make sure it's run right. The FDIC has 177 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,359 Speaker 4: a poor leadership right now, but it's been an institution 178 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 4: that's carried out its mission in a very tailored way. 179 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 4: And I would just argue that we have, mostly in 180 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 4: the Biden Harris regime, a personnel problem, not a structural problem. 181 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 4: But the supervisory process in our country between state and 182 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 4: federal supervisors has gotten convoluted. It's gotten in conflict with 183 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 4: each other, it's not harmonized, it's not coordinated, and so 184 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 4: there are a lot of improvements that need to be made, 185 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 4: in my view, in bank supervision. So again I'm open 186 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 4: minded about how those could be made. But just taking 187 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:10,839 Speaker 4: one out of context and saying that you should do 188 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 4: away with the FDIC, I don't think so particularly the 189 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 4: right way to go about it. 190 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 2: Well, if it is to stick around. What do you 191 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 2: see whoever Trump taps to lead the FDIC and the 192 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 2: OCC for that matter, as their chief priority, what would 193 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 2: you hope that they deal with first? 194 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:33,320 Speaker 4: Well, first tailoring, following the law, making sure that their 195 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 4: light touch regulation where it's deserved, and heavy complex tux 196 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 4: regulation where it's merited because of the nature of the business. Further, 197 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,079 Speaker 4: I think they have to understand that fintech is here 198 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 4: and AI is here, and they need to deal with 199 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 4: that reality and make sure that all banks of all 200 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 4: sizes and broker dealers of all sizes are treated in 201 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 4: the right way according with their business plan. But debank 202 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 4: banking businesses because they're involved in the fintech or the 203 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 4: crypto business is not a good approach. And that's what 204 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 4: we've seen in the Biden Harris administration, and in my view, 205 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 4: that's a key point to get changed as we change administrations. 206 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 4: We do not want customers de banked because they're in 207 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 4: a legal business, and we don't want to see banks 208 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:25,599 Speaker 4: and thrifts or credit unions or broker dealers treated inappropriately 209 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 4: by the supervisors. 210 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 2: Well, certainly, we've seen a number of pursuits during this 211 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 2: administration in regard to banking, including, of course, the initial 212 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 2: proposal of the BOSL three un gained by the FEDS 213 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 2: Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr. That obviously is now 214 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 2: being changed. It's unclear what form it's ultimately going to take, sir, 215 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 2: and I do wonder how you at the Financial Services 216 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 2: Committee are hoping to shape ultimately that endgame and what's 217 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,599 Speaker 2: going to happen to capital requirements, assuming Michael Barr is 218 00:11:57,800 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 2: still going to be the guy in this role. 219 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:05,479 Speaker 4: Well, look, the Board of Governors is responsible for obviously 220 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 4: that decision, and I don't believe that the Board of 221 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 4: Governors is supportive of Basil three in game as proposed. 222 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 4: I think President Trump should withdraw that rule and repropose 223 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 4: whatever the right, more balanced approach is. It got thousands 224 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 4: of comments, they were all negative, and I don't believe 225 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 4: that the Biden Harris's effort to just simply tweak the 226 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 4: proposal and re release it is the way to go. 227 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 4: I think it should be withdrawn and then be reconsidered 228 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:34,960 Speaker 4: by the Trump administration. 229 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 2: As we consider other Biden era banking policies. Would you 230 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 2: support a congressional review through the Congressional Review Act of 231 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 2: any of them? 232 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 4: Well, we have. We've done that for the Small Business 233 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 4: Data Reporting, which is Section ten seventy one that was 234 00:12:54,760 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 4: a CFPB proposal. We've done that for the currents the 235 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 4: Corporate Transparency Act, which I still hope gets put in 236 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 4: the cr this week to delay that. This is this 237 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 4: beneficial ownership reporting for thirty two million American small businesses 238 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,199 Speaker 4: that I believe is the wrong approach and handled in 239 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 4: an incorrect way. So I hope that we can. We've 240 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 4: used the CRA for that, and we want to try 241 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 4: to delay the implementation of that for a year since 242 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,959 Speaker 4: to give us an opportunity to reconsider it. We'll use 243 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 4: the Congressional Review Act, We'll use our Article one power 244 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 4: on funding through looking at activities in the Financial Services 245 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 4: Committee that are not currently authorized, and so we're going 246 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 4: to use all the oversight authorities that we have at 247 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 4: house financial Services to roll back what we believe to 248 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 4: be an inappropriate level of regulation proposed by Biden. Harris. 249 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you, as well, Congressman, about something 250 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 2: we're hearing a lot about in Washington these days as 251 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 2: we get ready for the second administration and for the 252 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 2: DOGE to make their commendations. 253 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:02,719 Speaker 3: It's this idea of remote. 254 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 2: Work or perhaps a return to working in the office 255 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 2: instead of working remotely for those who work in Washington 256 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 2: through federal agencies. Is there anything Congress can do to 257 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 2: help the administration this incoming administration see through that goal 258 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 2: of having people return to the office, even if there's 259 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 2: existing union contracts that allow them to work from home. 260 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 4: Well, I think this is the advantage of the Doze 261 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 4: process with Vivek and Elon. I think it's good to 262 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:37,359 Speaker 4: have for profit business executives look at the sedimentary regulatory 263 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 4: burden that's been built up over years, and also the 264 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 4: HR and work practices in the bureaucracy and try to 265 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 4: find ways to do things in a more effective way, 266 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 4: efficient way, and where possible, to get out of certain 267 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 4: businesses that are not necessary. We have a real issue 268 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 4: here in Washington, d C. I think the last number 269 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 4: I saw Kayley was only about forty percent of the 270 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 4: federal work force in the District of Columbia is in 271 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 4: the office. And so the question is is that appropriate 272 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 4: or inappropriate based on the kind of work that they're doing. 273 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 4: We've seen since the pandemic, the whole economy shift workflows, 274 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 4: and so from a federal government point of view. Maybe 275 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 4: they don't need to do that in some areas, like 276 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 4: if you're working in an auditing capacity, maybe you're on 277 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 4: the road a lot or working from a computer and 278 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 4: you want to do that from home. But that's the 279 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 4: kind of good, straightforward look I think we'll get from 280 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 4: Doje in Veka and Elon as they work with these 281 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 4: Cabinet secretaries to assess workloads, management techniques, the use of technology, 282 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 4: and the use of where people should be during the workday. 283 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 2: All right, Congressman, thank you so much for being generous 284 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 2: with your time on Bloomberg TV and radio today. That's 285 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 2: Republican Congressman French Hill of Arkansas, the incoming chairman of 286 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 2: the House Financial Services Committee. Happy holidays to you, sir, 287 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 2: and will see you in one hundred and nineteenth, when he, 288 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 2: of course, will be taking that gavel. We still have 289 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 2: much more ahead here on balance of power. He of course, 290 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 2: was just talking about the DOGE, those two co leaders 291 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 2: of the dough to vag Ramaswami and Elon Musk. We're 292 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 2: in the DC area in Landover, Maryland, specifically this weekend 293 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 2: at the Army Navy Game with a laundry list of 294 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 2: others including President elect Donald Trump, the House Speaker Mike Johnson, 295 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 2: the incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Reconciliation and what 296 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 2: exactly is going to happen with taxes and the budget 297 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 2: next year was on the agenda, and of course there 298 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 2: were cabinet nominees in tow as well, So we're going 299 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 2: to get into that next. Our signature political panel, Rick 300 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Shanzino will join me on Bloomberg TV 301 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 2: and Radio. 302 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast KEMS 303 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 304 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: and thenroyd Otro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can 305 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 306 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 1: York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven five. 307 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 2: Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio, 308 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 2: where we've been dealing with a lot of news today, 309 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 2: including news from down in Florida. We're at mar A Lago. 310 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 2: The CEO of SoftBank, Masoshi's Sun, met with Donald Trump 311 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 2: this morning, pledging to invest one hundred billion dollars in 312 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 2: the US over the next four years. That money to 313 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 2: be spent on things like infrastructure to support artificial intelligence 314 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 2: apparently could bring one hundred thousand jobs with it now. 315 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,880 Speaker 2: Their meeting was followed by a press conference in which 316 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 2: we heard from both of them. Donald Trump, we heard 317 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 2: from for an extended period of time on a number 318 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 2: of subjects well beyond just this soft bank investment, and 319 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 2: we want to get into all of that now with 320 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,359 Speaker 2: Laura Davison, who is Bloomberg Politics editor here with me 321 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: in our. 322 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 3: Washington, d C. Studio. 323 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 2: So, Laura, in that press conference, he did talk about 324 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 2: this soft bank investment, but he also talked about the 325 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 2: fact that Tim Cook and a number of other tech 326 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 2: executives have come to visit him at mar Alago. He 327 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 2: says this term is different, that everyone wants to be 328 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,880 Speaker 2: his friend now in the tech world, and I guess 329 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 2: we add Mashiyoshi's son to that list of people who 330 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 2: want to get friendly with the president elect. 331 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 6: Yes, there have been a series of meetings in the 332 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 6: past couple of days. We've had Mark Zuckerberg go down, 333 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 6: We've had the Google CEO Pinchai, We've had Bezos is 334 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 6: scheduled to come this week. On Friday, he met with 335 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,400 Speaker 6: Tim Cook from Apple. So there is a real outreach 336 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,120 Speaker 6: in the business community that just didn't happen eight years ago. 337 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 6: You know, part of this was they didn't know Trump, 338 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,199 Speaker 6: they didn't know how he operated, They didn't even know 339 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 6: you know who in his orbit to call to even 340 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 6: set up a meeting. And now you have people realizing 341 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 6: that this is if they want to be in Trump's 342 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 6: good graces, if they want to have this personal relationship 343 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 6: because that's how he does business, they need to personally 344 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 6: go there, set up a meeting, set up a dinner. 345 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 6: This worked out really well for Tim Cook during the 346 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 6: first term he was you know, it was sort of 347 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 6: a rarity among big CEOs who went down and he 348 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 6: was able to fend off most of the tariffs that 349 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 6: that Trump was going to impose on iPhones. So you 350 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 6: see this recognition from people saying, look, we need to 351 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 6: go down, we need to meet with them, and you know, 352 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 6: potentially be able to to influence some of these decisions 353 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,200 Speaker 6: before things that we don't like, like tariffs, come down 354 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 6: the pike. 355 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 2: Well, so I do wonder about sequencing here when it 356 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 2: comes to the soft Bank investment in particular, because it 357 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 2: was what just last week Trump posted on true Social Hey, 358 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 2: if you want to invest one billion dollars in the US. 359 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 2: I'll get you expedited permits, get ready to rock and 360 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 2: Maciochi Sun comes in a week later and says, how 361 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 2: about one hundred billion? Is there is there a line 362 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 2: connecting those two things? 363 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:20,919 Speaker 3: There certainly is. 364 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 6: And you also, this is sort of a move that 365 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 6: SoftBank has done in the past. You know, they have 366 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 6: previous said they would invest fifty billion dollars. You know, 367 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 6: that had some some kind of went down in a 368 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 6: couple of ways with with deals not actually following through, 369 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 6: but kind of coming in with a big headline number. 370 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 6: Saying look, we're going to invest one hundred billion dollars 371 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 6: really starts almost kind of this bidding war between other 372 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 6: companies being say, hey, look, you know we're bringing this money, 373 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:45,199 Speaker 6: we're bringing this jobs. You know, what what can you 374 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:47,160 Speaker 6: do for US, mister president? And they you know, even 375 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 6: you know, my son, the soft mak CEO got a 376 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 6: press conference out of this. So that's a real, uh, 377 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 6: you know, a real tangible benefit that attaches that saying look, 378 00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 6: I have you know, essentially the most powerful man in 379 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 6: the world, who is you know, willing to give his 380 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 6: first press conference really since becoming president or since becoming 381 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 6: president elect. 382 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,880 Speaker 3: That's a that's a major mark for SoftBank. 383 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:08,639 Speaker 2: Well, and just quickly on that, Laura, this was an 384 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 2: extended press conference. It went well beyond the soft Bank investment. 385 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 2: We touched Ukraine, we touched who's invited, the inauguration, tariffs, 386 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 2: taxes January sixth, the polio vaccine. What stood out to 387 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 2: you the most of this morning's extended affair. 388 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 3: I mean a couple of things. 389 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 6: One is, this is on Laura Trump and the Senate seat. 390 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 6: You know, he'd mentioned that, you know, he does not 391 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 6: think that Desanta is going to give that a seat 392 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 6: to her. He also, you know, was very critical of 393 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 6: Biden on several things, on you know, the foreign wars, 394 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 6: on Ukraine, on Israel, but also on the drone sightings 395 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 6: that have continued to spark concern, particularly in the Northeast. 396 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 6: He said that the government knows something and they should 397 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 6: reveal it. You know, he did not cite any evidence 398 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 6: for that. It's not clear. The Pentagon and the White 399 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:48,959 Speaker 6: House come out and said there's no risk there. But 400 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,439 Speaker 6: this is clearly going to be a flashpoint going forward 401 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 6: as well. 402 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, everybody's obsessed with the drones now. I have questions 403 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 2: about the drones. 404 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 3: I think we all do. 405 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:01,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Laura Davison, or politics editor here in Washington, thank 406 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 2: you so much. Now, before Donald Trump was in mar 407 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 2: A Lago today, he spent part of his weekend in 408 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 2: this area and landover Maryland at the Army Navy game, 409 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,479 Speaker 2: which of course was a big deal, in part because 410 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 2: Navy pretty much dominated, played a great game. Go Navy, 411 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 2: but also because along with Donald Trump, there were a 412 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 2: number of other high profile individuals and attendance, including the 413 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 2: vaik Ramaswami and Elon Musk who are going to be 414 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 2: running this Department of Government Efficiency cabinet secretary nominees including 415 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth who has been tapped for the Department of Defense, 416 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,919 Speaker 2: and Tulci Gabbard for the Director of National Intelligence. And 417 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 2: he had Senator John Thune, the incoming Senate majority leader, 418 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 2: as well as House Speaker Mike Johnson discussing things with 419 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,439 Speaker 2: the president, not just football, but how they want to 420 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 2: deal with Trump's agenda when he takes office. It's a 421 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 2: question of sequencing here. Do you pass one budget reconciliation 422 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 2: package with everything in it, or do you split it up? 423 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 2: Dealing with the border first and taxes later. So let's 424 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,400 Speaker 2: get into this now with our signature political panel, Rick 425 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 2: Davis stone Court Capital Partner and Republican strategists alongside Democratic 426 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 2: strategist Genie Schanzino, who is a Senior Democracy Fellow at 427 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,399 Speaker 2: the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. So, Genie, 428 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 2: if we consider how all of this is going to 429 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:12,679 Speaker 2: shake out, it's very likely. It seems that this is 430 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 2: going to end up in two packages. Right, We're going 431 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 2: to try to get something done immediately on the border, 432 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 2: which Donald Trump campaigned on, and then wait for his 433 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 2: other campaign promise on taxes until later in the year. 434 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think so, it's clearly. I mean, we have 435 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 7: heard Trump's associates, some of the closest aids he has 436 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,960 Speaker 7: make the case, such as Stephen Miller, that that's how 437 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 7: it should be done. We have heard from the incoming 438 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 7: majority leader of the Senate. There has been some pushback 439 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 7: on the House side, but you know, as you look 440 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,440 Speaker 7: at it and the difficulty of doing this, I think 441 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,920 Speaker 7: it does make sense for him as far as possible 442 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 7: to get a win. And also we heard Lindsey Graham 443 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 7: over the weekend making the case that you have to 444 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 7: deal with security at the border and national security before 445 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,120 Speaker 7: you attempt these other things. I think that's what we're 446 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 7: hearing more and more from the President and the incoming administration. 447 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 2: Well, so as we consider the fact that there is 448 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 2: some consternation, if you will, about at least what some 449 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 2: members of the House, like the chair of the Ways 450 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 2: and Means Committee, Jason Smith, want to do here Rick 451 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 2: versus what John Thune wants to do with. Isn't Thune's 452 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 2: majority that he's dealing with more comfortable? The House is 453 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,719 Speaker 2: going to have very few few votes that Republicans can lose. 454 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,440 Speaker 2: And if Jason Smith is saying no, I'm telling you, 455 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,640 Speaker 2: doing this is one package, is the way I get 456 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 2: these votes. Should it not be his voice that's listened to? 457 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it's probably going to be his voice 458 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 8: is listened to, mostly because of the point you make, Kayley, 459 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 8: which is it's just simply easier to get things done. 460 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 8: I mean, look at the problem we're having now even 461 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 8: getting this stopgap measure. The margins are so thin that Democrats, 462 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,399 Speaker 8: if they don't go along, you know, with the provisions 463 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 8: on the agriculture spending, that they can stop it. From 464 00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 8: happening as they have, and all of a sudden, instead 465 00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 8: of getting this done yesterday, we're still talking about it 466 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 8: today and time is running short. The last thing that 467 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 8: Trump wants to do is have his agenda kept hostage 468 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 8: by Democrats and some Racalcua Trent Republicans and the House 469 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 8: of Representatives. So he wants to get whatever he can 470 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 8: get quick. And of course we do know his priorities 471 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 8: are the border. It's border, border, border. He can do 472 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 8: the tariff, economic, geopolitical stuff himself. And he wants to 473 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 8: clear the path for more energy development in the country. 474 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 8: And so those things top of mind in the Senate. 475 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 8: Let's get it done and we'll get to the taxes 476 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:37,640 Speaker 8: as the year goes on. 477 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 2: Well, I want to get into another question that was 478 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 2: raised by the attendance at the Army Navy Game this weekend, Rick, 479 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,119 Speaker 2: and that was that in the presidential suite with the 480 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 2: President elect where some of his controversial cabinet nominees, namely 481 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth, who has been tapped for Secretary of Defense. 482 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 2: What is the signal there of him being there literally 483 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 2: next to Donald Trump and very close proximity to him, 484 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 2: Is that Trump saying, you know, I have confidence that 485 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,159 Speaker 2: this guy is ultimately going to be confirmed. Or is 486 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 2: that Trump threatening others in attendance or who were viewing 487 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 2: the events of Saturday saying I am with this guy 488 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 2: no matter what, and you need to do what I 489 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 2: say when I say that I want him in that slot. 490 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 8: Yeah, probably more the latter. First of all, Trump is 491 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 8: always confident that he's going to get what he wants. 492 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 8: But I do think in this Cassie realizes that this 493 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 8: is a lift that he's going to have to do 494 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 8: in order to get this nominee in particular through. And 495 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 8: I would say too, who was on the right hand 496 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 8: side of Donald Trump in that suite, Telsea Gabber, somebody 497 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 8: who he believes Donald Trump leaves will need that same 498 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 8: kind of lift. So his two most troublesome cabinet picks 499 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 8: right now we're flanking him at that event. I would 500 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:54,120 Speaker 8: say too. An interesting person who is there who's had 501 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 8: his own issues with Donald Trump was the chairman of 502 00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 8: the Joint chiefs of Staff c Q. Brown evidently in 503 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 8: that suite, and somebody who likely may lose his job 504 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 8: because of this present. 505 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:11,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, a very good point to flag Rick. So We've 506 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 2: talked about Pete Hegseth and Toulci Gabbard as being their genie. 507 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,120 Speaker 2: There's also the question this week of RFK Junior, because 508 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,400 Speaker 2: he'll be meeting with senators throughout the course of the week. 509 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,920 Speaker 2: In fact, some twenty five of them will be meeting 510 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 2: with the Health and Human Services Secretary nominee. We heard 511 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 2: Donald Trump talking about him from mar A Lago in 512 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 2: that press conference this morning, suggesting that he is not 513 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 2: as extreme perhaps as others may seem to think that 514 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,679 Speaker 2: he is, that the polio vaccine isn't going anywhere. But 515 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,840 Speaker 2: how difficult is it going to be for RFK Junior 516 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 2: to make that case himself as he takes these meetings 517 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 2: this week. 518 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,119 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, he's certainly skilled at this is He 519 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 7: is famously a very good presenter, and he's very good 520 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 7: in meetings. He's very engaging. That said, you know, Donald 521 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 7: Trump not only said that he himself is a big 522 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,679 Speaker 7: believer in the polio vaccine during that press EFTs, but 523 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 7: he also at the same time suggested he would give 524 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 7: RFK Junior wide latitude. And that's going to be concerning 525 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 7: to some of these senators. We've already heard from somebody 526 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,880 Speaker 7: like Mitch McConnell. And you know, the reality is Number one, 527 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 7: RFK has zero public health expertise. He is an environmental lawyer. 528 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,719 Speaker 7: Number Two, he spread lies about the COVID vaccine and 529 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 7: has associated with anti vaxxers on polio and other things. 530 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,399 Speaker 7: This is deeply concerning to not just Mitch McConnell, but 531 00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 7: many Republicans in the Senate. And that's why we understand 532 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 7: he's going to go in there starting today and he's 533 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 7: going to downplay this skepticism of vaccines. He's going to 534 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,439 Speaker 7: downplay his abortion stance and try to be appealing. But 535 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 7: I think it is going to be a challenge for 536 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,879 Speaker 7: him to thread that needle. That said, you know, I 537 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 7: look back, Kayley, we have had only one nominee of 538 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:57,199 Speaker 7: the President's cabinet in like the last thirty five years 539 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 7: denied in the Senate. Almost everyone who left has withdrawn 540 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,320 Speaker 7: themselves or been withdrawn by the president. So if he 541 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 7: gets over that hurdle, statistically, he's likely going to get through. 542 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:09,639 Speaker 5: All right. 543 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzeno always bringing the stats for us here on 544 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio alongside the other half of our 545 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 2: signature political panel Rick Davis. 546 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 3: Thank you both. 547 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 2: I should note Rick Davis was also at that Army 548 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:21,600 Speaker 2: Navy game on Saturday. 549 00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 3: We're both Navy fans. 550 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,360 Speaker 2: I think we're both feeling pretty good on Saturday night. 551 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,080 Speaker 2: But it is Monday, and we still have more of 552 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,679 Speaker 2: our Monday edition of Balance of Power ahead here, So 553 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 2: stick with us on Bloomberg. 554 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 555 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on evocar Play and 556 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 1: then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 557 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 558 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 559 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 2: It has been just over one week since the toppling 560 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,959 Speaker 2: of Basher al Assad's regime in Syria. He was, of 561 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 2: course ousted by a rebel group HTS, which is a 562 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 2: designated terrorist organization by the US. But we learned this 563 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 2: weekend from the US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln, who 564 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 2: was speaking in Jordan as he wrapped up a trip 565 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 2: to the Middle East in the aftermath of Assad's fall, 566 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,959 Speaker 2: that the US has had direct talks with HTS, as 567 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 2: well as a number of other groups. He said that 568 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,239 Speaker 2: those talks focused on a set of principles that they 569 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 2: want to guide this transition of power in Syria, as 570 00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 2: well as the importance of finding Austin Tice, who, of course, 571 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 2: is a missing American journalist still unaccounted for in the country. 572 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 2: Let's hear more of what Secretary Blincoln had to say 573 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 2: in Jordan on Saturday. 574 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 9: We've seen how the fall of a repressive regime can 575 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 9: swiftly give way to more conflicts and chaos, how the 576 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 9: shoes of one dictator can be filled by another. Well, 577 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 9: now interference by an outside country can be thrown off 578 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 9: only to be replaced by another. That's why it's so 579 00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 9: important that we and our partners came together today to 580 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 9: agree on principles that will guide our efforts to help 581 00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 9: the Syrian people meet these challenges and build the inclusive, 582 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 9: non sectarian, peaceful and sovereign state that they want. Our 583 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 9: message to the Syrian people is this, we want them 584 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 9: to succeed, and we're prepared to help them do so. 585 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,000 Speaker 2: For more, I want to turn now. Tamara Rudman, who 586 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 2: is professor at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, 587 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 2: also director of the Ripples of Hope project focused on 588 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:33,080 Speaker 2: democratic solutions, and formerly Deputy Envoy for Middle East Peace 589 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,080 Speaker 2: at the US Department of State. Welcome back to Bloomberg. 590 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 4: Mara. 591 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 3: Always good to have you. As the Secretary talks. 592 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 2: About wanting the Syrian people to succeed, is that success 593 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 2: going to be reliant on assuming that HTS, at least 594 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 2: in some interim period is in power the US removing 595 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 2: HTS is terrorist designation or terror organization designation rather. 596 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:58,920 Speaker 5: It's a good question, and it's good to be here. 597 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 5: I think it's hard to say, though, it's hard to 598 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:06,440 Speaker 5: answer directly in terms of how that terrorism designation will 599 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 5: get removed. What's the ability to interact with HTS absent 600 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 5: that and with a real awareness of the number of 601 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 5: different groups and factions and centers of power within Syria 602 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,080 Speaker 5: right now it's not just HTS, and there's a question 603 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 5: of making some tough choices among bad options, and doing 604 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,360 Speaker 5: it at a time of transition in this country and 605 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,880 Speaker 5: a number of other key countries as well, in terms 606 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 5: of leadership transitions ongoing. 607 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,640 Speaker 2: Obviously it's still early days, but to this point, the transition, 608 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,600 Speaker 2: the management that we've seen from HTS of it, Mara, 609 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,280 Speaker 2: how would you rate it? It does seem by and large, 610 00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 2: things have been pretty peaceful and orderly so far. 611 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 5: I think that's a fair characterization. These things can often 612 00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:01,800 Speaker 5: go bad quickly, but at least from public perceptions, HTS 613 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 5: is taking is making a significant effort to first show 614 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 5: their strength in being able to govern Damascus and the 615 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 5: environs again number of other groups. It's important for them 616 00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:18,960 Speaker 5: internally to show they're in control. They've also thus far 617 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:24,760 Speaker 5: it seem to have been fairly relaxed about how women 618 00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 5: appear and interactance here, and you can see it on 619 00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,080 Speaker 5: the news reports. There's a wide range of degrees of 620 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 5: covern by women from completely uncovered to you know, fully 621 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:41,760 Speaker 5: fully so, and that the traditional extreme Islamist groups would 622 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 5: expect and require women to be fully covered. And there's 623 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 5: not been looting, there's not been some of the actions 624 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:52,400 Speaker 5: we've seen in other places when despicable leader like Assad 625 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 5: has left and there's a certain amount of chaos, And 626 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,360 Speaker 5: as you point out, they seem to have managed to 627 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 5: maintain a certain amount of order, have been sending the 628 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:09,560 Speaker 5: right public messages internationally, but have a record that is 629 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 5: worth some wariness from outsiders and from those inside Syria. 630 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 2: Well, especially when you consider their historic relationship to al Qaeda. 631 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,040 Speaker 2: It does speak to the broader concerns the US has 632 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,560 Speaker 2: not just to making sure there is you know, security 633 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 2: for the Syrian people who have been living under Assad 634 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:32,840 Speaker 2: and the Assad families regime for decades now, but also 635 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,160 Speaker 2: this notion that they have been trying to keep Isis 636 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,920 Speaker 2: the Islamic state at bay and there is concern about 637 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 2: a potential resurgence. What is your degree of concern around that, Mara, 638 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 2: that we could see a kind of reigniting of this 639 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 2: group's power and ability. 640 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:53,120 Speaker 5: My concern is high. Isis has not gone away, nor 641 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,880 Speaker 5: has al Qaeda. And what I was referencing earlier in 642 00:33:55,960 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 5: terms of Syria being a country of faction, of different 643 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 5: communities and different spheres of power is even more the case. 644 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,799 Speaker 5: It was the case when Assad was ruling in He 645 00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,960 Speaker 5: kept control, he and his father both in a fairly 646 00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 5: brutal way. I shouldn't have said fairly brutal, in a 647 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:22,959 Speaker 5: brutal and despicable way. But those factions are still are 648 00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,800 Speaker 5: not only there, but have the potential to gain a 649 00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:28,479 Speaker 5: tremendous amount of power work in coalition with each other. 650 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 5: HTS was formerly a group called Al Lustra, which is 651 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 5: I believe where their terrorist designation came, and as you 652 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,200 Speaker 5: point out, they were on offshoot of al Qaeda. They 653 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:41,960 Speaker 5: were a group that kept hostages, including American hostages, during 654 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,319 Speaker 5: the ISIS regime and time period. So a lot of 655 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 5: reason for awareness and concern and a real effort, and 656 00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,920 Speaker 5: I think you saw it in what Secretaric Lincoln said 657 00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,560 Speaker 5: this weekend of trying to figure out how you get 658 00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:57,360 Speaker 5: coalitions of like minded countries together around things like principles 659 00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:01,240 Speaker 5: to advance, and particularly when as I said, the States 660 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,480 Speaker 5: is going through a transition, Germany a pairents will be 661 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,880 Speaker 5: going through transition France as a new prime minister, and 662 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,840 Speaker 5: Macron has his challenges there. So we're really going to 663 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,040 Speaker 5: have to work very closely with countries in the region 664 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,359 Speaker 5: to figure out how we put together these more solid coalitions. 665 00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 2: We're just getting some breaking news Mara from the Times 666 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,080 Speaker 2: of London, which is reporting citing an interview with Muhammad 667 00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 2: Abu Muhammad al Julani, who of course is the leader 668 00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:31,760 Speaker 2: here of HTS, who told the Times that he would 669 00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,440 Speaker 2: not allow Siria to be used as a launchpad for 670 00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:38,359 Speaker 2: attacks against Israel or any other state. And I feel 671 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,279 Speaker 2: like this does in some way speak to the role 672 00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,719 Speaker 2: Iron will or will not be able to play under 673 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:47,360 Speaker 2: this new regimes, considering the alliance they had with Asad. 674 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,040 Speaker 3: What is your reaction to that? 675 00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 2: What is that signal about the way in which the 676 00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:54,719 Speaker 2: new transitional government will be approaching Israel specifically? 677 00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:59,759 Speaker 5: Thanks well, I think I have two reactions. One is 678 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,200 Speaker 5: that it's consistent with what I referenced earlier about how 679 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 5: the HTS leader Al Johanni is positioning himself and his leadership, 680 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:13,520 Speaker 5: so as not just these are the Israel and its concerns, 681 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:19,680 Speaker 5: but the kinds of coalition groups that Secretary Blincoln was 682 00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:23,840 Speaker 5: speaking about, right of trying to assuage the United States 683 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,919 Speaker 5: and others as well in the region with those kinds 684 00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,880 Speaker 5: of words. My second reaction, though, is that it's a 685 00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,279 Speaker 5: fairly practical thing for him to say, because we know 686 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:37,040 Speaker 5: that part of how Assad fell so quickly in the 687 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 5: end was because Iran's air defense capability, Iran's access points 688 00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,600 Speaker 5: are severely limited. They could not go in. 689 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:48,239 Speaker 7: And and. 690 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,240 Speaker 5: What has Belah has done in the past and backing 691 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 5: up Assad's forces in Srea, all of those things are gone, 692 00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,960 Speaker 5: and Russia does not have the ability to provide air 693 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,359 Speaker 5: cover either, so it's a fairly low cost and very 694 00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:07,319 Speaker 5: rational proposition for the HTS leader to put out what 695 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,200 Speaker 5: he's saying, because he also may not have the means 696 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,520 Speaker 5: to do anything other than that until he's getting credit 697 00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:15,320 Speaker 5: internationally for putting out that position. 698 00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:17,560 Speaker 3: It makes sense. 699 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:19,719 Speaker 2: Well, I guess it speaks as well to the way 700 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:23,319 Speaker 2: in which we've seen Iran through this and through the 701 00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,680 Speaker 2: way in which Israel has been very successful in dismantling 702 00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 2: a lot of Hesbela's operation, and of course it's leadership 703 00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:32,000 Speaker 2: we've seen Iran diminished in a lot of ways. Mara, 704 00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 2: and I wonder if you think that makes Iran less 705 00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,839 Speaker 2: dangerous at least in the near term, or potentially more 706 00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:39,839 Speaker 2: so if they feel cornered in some way. 707 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:45,000 Speaker 5: It can be both, and I don't mean to avoid 708 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:50,280 Speaker 5: your question, but on the why they'd be less dangerous 709 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:54,120 Speaker 5: is if what they conclude is because of their lack 710 00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,879 Speaker 5: of because of the extent to which has law has 711 00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:02,759 Speaker 5: been decimated, and iran Own air defense capabilities and others 712 00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:06,200 Speaker 5: have other items have been decimated, that means they should 713 00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 5: turn more rigorously to some sort of negotiating a compromise 714 00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:17,160 Speaker 5: track with a new Trump administration, with Israel with others, 715 00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:20,120 Speaker 5: and that's the conclusion they take that that's the best 716 00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,040 Speaker 5: way to preserve the regime. They can also go to 717 00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:24,920 Speaker 5: the other extreme and say no, this means what they 718 00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,279 Speaker 5: need to do is absolutely speed up their ability to 719 00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:32,839 Speaker 5: develop and potentially deploy their nuclear weapon capability because they 720 00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,120 Speaker 5: have no other option, because all of the other defenses 721 00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,759 Speaker 5: that they put up as essentially no longer exist and 722 00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,120 Speaker 5: it could go either way, which is why it's very 723 00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,640 Speaker 5: important how President Biden handles his last days in office 724 00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:49,000 Speaker 5: with them, and how the baton is carried over to 725 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:54,160 Speaker 5: President Trump and his team, and how carefully and seriously 726 00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,839 Speaker 5: they evaluate what the options are going forward and what 727 00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:00,399 Speaker 5: the different trajectories might be, and how they react, how 728 00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:01,680 Speaker 5: they relate to Iran. 729 00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:03,480 Speaker 4: Mara. 730 00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,839 Speaker 2: In our final two minutes here, what is all this 731 00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:10,960 Speaker 2: entire conversation around Syria, around Iran, around Hesbola in Lebanon 732 00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,160 Speaker 2: and its proximity to Syria. How does all of it 733 00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,640 Speaker 2: inform your view on what is likely to happen with 734 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,759 Speaker 2: a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Is it more 735 00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,000 Speaker 2: likely because of all of this? 736 00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,120 Speaker 5: I hope that that means it's more likely and certainly. 737 00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:31,320 Speaker 5: I listened very closely to Jake Sullivan, the American National 738 00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:36,200 Speaker 5: Security Advisors comments I believe in Israel when he was 739 00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,799 Speaker 5: there most recently, and he's been on the kind of 740 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,680 Speaker 5: a been a series of meetings with the countries again 741 00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:46,000 Speaker 5: working very closely and trying to get yet again to 742 00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:50,480 Speaker 5: a ceasefire that gets the hostages home, that helps to 743 00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:56,520 Speaker 5: get humanitarian assistants in, and develops a path forward for Gaza, 744 00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:59,080 Speaker 5: I would say, for Gaza and the West Bank post Hamas. 745 00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:05,080 Speaker 5: So I do think that Hamas is even more isolated 746 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:09,759 Speaker 5: than they had been previously by the most recent developments. 747 00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:15,920 Speaker 5: My concern is how much the acting leadership of Hamas, 748 00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,320 Speaker 5: which I believe is in the hands it's point of 749 00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,320 Speaker 5: the brother of Yaya Sinmar, who was killed some weeks 750 00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:26,040 Speaker 5: ago and who is every bit as diabolical as sinoar 751 00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:33,160 Speaker 5: as Yaya Sinwar was. What their willingness is to ultimately 752 00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:40,080 Speaker 5: deploy an exit strategy as opposed to continuing this to 753 00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:43,920 Speaker 5: the absolute end, and the hostages are key in that. 754 00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,600 Speaker 5: So I hope Jake Sullivan is really onto something. I 755 00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,440 Speaker 5: hope that it's possible for a variety for reasons I 756 00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:52,280 Speaker 5: can make an argument that it is prior to President 757 00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,480 Speaker 5: Electromp coming into office, but I'm not as certain as 758 00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,839 Speaker 5: I would like to be, all. 759 00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:01,000 Speaker 2: Right, Mara Rudman at the University of Viginia's Miller Center, 760 00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:02,080 Speaker 2: where she is a professor. 761 00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:03,520 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us. 762 00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:08,360 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 763 00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:12,120 Speaker 9: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 764 00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,799 Speaker 9: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 765 00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:18,560 Speaker 9: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at 766 00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:19,800 Speaker 9: Bloomberg dot com.