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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host Thomas Myolin, joining me as always Matt

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Speaker 1: F the Oracle, Matthew Friedman, and Matt we have a

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Speaker 1: very special guest joining us here today. Welcome to the show,

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Speaker 1: Captain Jack Andrews of Unabated Jack.

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Speaker 2: How are you doing today?

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Speaker 3: I am good, guys, I'm psyched to do this. This

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Speaker 3: should be fun.

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Speaker 2: I am very excited as well.

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Speaker 1: This is going to be a conversation very different from

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Speaker 1: what you're gonna hear around. I'd wager almost any other

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Speaker 1: podcast out there talking about the NFL right now, because

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Speaker 1: your approach to gambling, especially in football is a little

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Speaker 1: bit different.

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Speaker 2: You told me yourself, you.

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Speaker 1: Will openly admit you can't name ten NFL starters, and

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Speaker 1: yet you're still out here making money in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: How is it that you're approaching these games to bet

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Speaker 1: them when you're not really looking at the teams in specifics.

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Speaker 3: You know, good, into my head, Tom, I could probably

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Speaker 3: name more than ten, but they're all going to be

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Speaker 3: quarterback because quarterbacks are the only position that really affects

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Speaker 3: the point spread. So I think that's one of the

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Speaker 3: first things is I'm looking at numbers. I'm looking at

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Speaker 3: market makers and what they have the number at, and

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Speaker 3: then I'm looking at some of these softer books. And

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Speaker 3: let's face it, there's a lot of softer books out

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Speaker 3: there these days, and I'm trying to pick off their

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Speaker 3: slow movement or maybe areas that they're inefficient, maybe derivative pricing,

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Speaker 3: things like that. The NFL. The best thing about betting

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Speaker 3: the NFL is you're not just restricted to the spread

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Speaker 3: and the total and the money line. We got props

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Speaker 3: on everything. We got props on everything every game. We

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Speaker 3: have alternate lines, we have alternate first quarter lines, we

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Speaker 3: have second half lines. There are so many different ways

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Speaker 3: to bet the NFL that, honestly, I feel that if

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Speaker 3: you're memorizing who the third person on the depth chart

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Speaker 3: at free safety is when they're going against a twelve personnel,

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Speaker 3: you're wasting your time Because there's so many different ways

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Speaker 3: to beat this. You don't need to get into the

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Speaker 3: nitty gritty of knowing all the players. So yeah, I

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Speaker 3: so could I name ten players. I probably could, but

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Speaker 3: they're all going to be quarterbacks because really, in my mind,

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Speaker 3: that's the only position that I really care about.

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Speaker 4: All right, Captain Jack. Actually, here's a question. Do you

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Speaker 4: prefer Captain Jack or just Jack?

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Speaker 3: You can call me Jack. My military service behind this.

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Speaker 4: All right, Jack, all right? Your answer prompted like four

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Speaker 4: follow up questions in my brain. And of course Tom

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Speaker 4: has a beautiful outline here. I'm going to let him

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Speaker 4: stick to the outline with the questions that he asked.

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Speaker 4: I'm I'm going to go off the cuff. And so

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Speaker 4: one thing that uh that you know, like Twitter, Twitter,

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Speaker 4: you know Twitter people, well, you know, minions, trolls, whatever

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Speaker 4: that they'll kind of throw at you, was like, oh,

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Speaker 4: do you watch the game? You know, like, hey, did

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Speaker 4: you watch the game? And so the question is do

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Speaker 4: you watch football? I'm assuming you don't watch it all

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Speaker 4: that much. If you do or you don't, it's not

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Speaker 4: so much for the purposes of handicapping. It's maybe just

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Speaker 4: to enjoy watching it. But how do you incorporate watching

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Speaker 4: football or not watching football into your process?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Matt, actually I watch football. I am Red Zone

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Speaker 3: on Sunday, seven hours of commercial free football starts. Now.

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Speaker 3: I say it as if there's a camera on me

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Speaker 3: every week. And I also have like a streaming service

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Speaker 3: where I can get like four different streams in at

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Speaker 3: the same time, although it's just slightly too delayed for

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Speaker 3: my own betting process. But I do watch football. I

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Speaker 3: watch a lot of football. I love watching football. I'm

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Speaker 3: just not watching it with the eye of trying to

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Speaker 3: handicap based on what I'm seeing other than how it

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Speaker 3: could affect the line or how it could affect a

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Speaker 3: future line. I'll give you two examples from this weekend's games.

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Speaker 3: I was watching the Pittsburgh Cincinnati game. I saw TJ.

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Speaker 3: Watt come off holding his shoulder and clearly saying I

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Speaker 3: tore my peck. Now, what is TJ. Watt worth to

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Speaker 3: the line? Not that much. He's probably the best defensive

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Speaker 3: player on the team, but he's not worth that much

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Speaker 3: to the actual line. And you guys are saying, well, hey,

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Speaker 3: you just named TJ. Watt. You know who TJ. Watt is?

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Speaker 3: I do. I guess really, so he counts against one

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Speaker 3: of my ten. But I could have used that, But

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Speaker 3: it was late in the game. I think it was

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Speaker 3: like thirty seconds left in the game. It was right

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Speaker 3: before Cincinnati tried to kick that go ahead point, and

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Speaker 3: so I could have used that information just from watching

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Speaker 3: the game. Getting ahead of any kind of injury information.

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Speaker 3: Fast forward to Sunday night the end towards the end

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Speaker 3: of the Tampa Bay Dallas game, Dak Prescott comes off.

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Speaker 3: I didn't see him mouth anything, but when he's standing

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Speaker 3: talking to the Dallas longtime team doctor always wears the

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Speaker 3: stetson as if he's like escorting Jack Ruby through Dallas

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Speaker 3: PD or something, he clearly says it may be broke.

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Speaker 3: I could read his lips. It may be broke. Boom

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Speaker 3: jump on anything fading Dallas that you could find now. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 3: while the game is going go on, you can't find

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Speaker 3: all that much. And then double unfortunately, the NBC broadcast

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Speaker 3: zooms into Dak saying I broke my hand as he's

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Speaker 3: coming off the field, and so then all bets were off. Basically,

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Speaker 3: there was no way to find anything of value. But

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Speaker 3: those are two instances where you see something and you

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Speaker 3: can react to it before it gets out there, and

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Speaker 3: you can only know it by watching the game.

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Speaker 4: All right, So I again, more follow up questions off

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Speaker 4: of that you mentioned live betting there, you know, like, hey,

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Speaker 4: you could see as you're watching the game something happen

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Speaker 4: and there might be an advantage to betting on it. Now,

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Speaker 4: you also mentioned earlier you don't have to bet just

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Speaker 4: sides and totals. There are lots of props, and you know,

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Speaker 4: my experience the experience of a lot of other people

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Speaker 4: who were getting into the space as novice betters. Maybe

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Speaker 4: they have some success and then a book limits them.

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Speaker 4: And maybe it's because they have success betting props, or

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Speaker 4: you know, they see something live betting it and the

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Speaker 4: book says, hey, they reacted to this information. We don't

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Speaker 4: like that they did this and what we view as

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Speaker 4: an untoward manner, and so we're going to limit them.

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Speaker 4: Can you talk a little bit about kind of navigating

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Speaker 4: that and how it is that you approach the betting

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Speaker 4: market knowing that if you do skew towards certain types

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Speaker 4: of bets, the books might not take that kindly.

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Speaker 3: Right, So you always have to be aware of the

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Speaker 3: story you're telling a sports book when you're betting, especially

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Speaker 3: if you're betting with an advantage and you know that

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Speaker 3: in the end you can win if you can just

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Speaker 3: last long enough at this sports book. So you got

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Speaker 3: to tell a story to the sports book as you're betting,

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Speaker 3: whether that be when you first open the account, you

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Speaker 3: put in some bets that maybe don't have an edge,

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Speaker 3: or just things that sports books like to see, like

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Speaker 3: parlays and stuff like that, and then as you kind

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Speaker 3: of get into it, you can sprinkle in the advantage bets.

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Speaker 3: So one thing that I always tell people is if

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Speaker 3: sports betting had a food pyramid. We've all seen that

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Speaker 3: kind of a food pyramid that says, you know, these

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Speaker 3: are the things you do a lot of, and then

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Speaker 3: less less less, and the things at the very top

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Speaker 3: of the pyramid you just have once in a while. Well,

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Speaker 3: the things you do a lot of would be NFL

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Speaker 3: sides and totals, because sports books eat that up. They

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Speaker 3: just think that they have an edge, and they probably

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Speaker 3: do have an edge on all NFL sides and totals aggregately.

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Speaker 3: But at the very peak of that would be props

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Speaker 3: and promos. And that's two things where you got to go, Okay,

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Speaker 3: I can just have a little taste of this now

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Speaker 3: and then in order to kind of sustain my account. Now,

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Speaker 3: if you're losing in the lower tiers of things that

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Speaker 3: they want to see, you have more leeway when it

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Speaker 3: comes to those sweet treats at the top of the pyramid.

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Speaker 3: In those props. So that's one way to look at it.

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Speaker 3: But I will add Matt, NFL props get a lot

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Speaker 3: more leeway than other sports. And take it from me,

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Speaker 3: I've tried to beat props all my career and I'm

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Speaker 3: used to one hundred dollars or less limits with it,

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Speaker 3: And strangely, with the NFL, there are still a lot

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Speaker 3: of places that'll take five hundred do dollars a pop,

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Speaker 3: thousand dollars a pop on a prop, and I think

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Speaker 3: that's that's tremendous. It's easy to get like a twenty

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Speaker 3: percent edge on a prop if you do your homework,

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Speaker 3: and you know, that's a fascinating edge to have dozens

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Speaker 3: and dozens of times throughout an NFL week.

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Speaker 1: Now, what you're doing, you talk about having an advantage,

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Speaker 1: You're not simply sitting there looking at lines and arbitraging numbers.

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Speaker 1: That is something entirely different. You are actually going looking

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Speaker 1: at these lines, looking at the discrepancies in the market,

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Speaker 1: and you're calculating that you have an advantage when you

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Speaker 1: are placing a certain bet at a certain book versus

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Speaker 1: the value of the rest of the market.

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Speaker 3: Right right, tom It comes down to what is my

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Speaker 3: source of truth. Okay, Now, if I was this savant

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Speaker 3: modeler who could come up with the best perfect price

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Speaker 3: in the world, then I'm my own source of truth.

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Speaker 3: And I go, well, that price is off, I'm going

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Speaker 3: to take that. But I'm not that guy, and I

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Speaker 3: don't think anybody really can be that guy in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: But we do have these sharp sports books in the

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Speaker 3: world that take the bets from all of those super

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Speaker 3: savant modeler guys and they create basically a price that

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Speaker 3: has been hammered into shape just based on their own

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Speaker 3: aggregate hive mind of all of these sharp betters. And

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Speaker 3: so that's why if you can key in on who

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Speaker 3: the top market making books are in any kind of sport,

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Speaker 3: you can use that as your source of truth. And

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Speaker 3: then when you find a price that varies from the

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Speaker 3: source of truth, you know, well, is it going to

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Speaker 3: be this soft book that doesn't really take a lot

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Speaker 3: of sharp action. Do they have the right number, or

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Speaker 3: is it going to be this book that gets hammered

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Speaker 3: into shape by literally million dollar bets left and right

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Speaker 3: to make sure they have the exact right price. And

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Speaker 3: you go with the sharp book and you play the

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Speaker 3: inefficiency at the softer book. It's simple market economics, I

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Speaker 3: guess you could call it.

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Speaker 1: And you actually kind of hit on what I wanted

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Speaker 1: to ask you next year, because advantage plays all about

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Speaker 1: finding this value in your bets, finding an edge, And.

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Speaker 2: My question is going to be, how do you know

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Speaker 2: when you have value?

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Speaker 1: Because if your edge is probability of a win multiplied

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Speaker 1: by fractional odds divided by amount risked, my question, how

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Speaker 1: are you determining that what that win probability is, what

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Speaker 1: that X is that goes into the equation to arrive

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Speaker 1: at your final edge calculation. And you're saying that for you,

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Speaker 1: it's not that you're making up a model some better

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Speaker 1: Certainly some betters that we know are making up models

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Speaker 1: and having their own numbers, But for you, you are

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Speaker 1: using other sources and saying, I trust this source. I've

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Speaker 1: evaluated this source to the point where they're the ones

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Speaker 1: who I believe in, and I'm going to use their

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Speaker 1: probability of a win in my calculation exactly.

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Speaker 3: And so you know not to advertise my own site,

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Speaker 3: but I started the site with Rufus Peabody, a famed

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Speaker 3: professional better called unabated dot com, and we have an

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Speaker 3: odd screen. And what we did is, since we have

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Speaker 3: some market making books out there, all of the sharpest

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Speaker 3: betters that we know, dozens and dozens of excellent sharp betters,

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Speaker 3: and asked them on each league, who is the sharpest book,

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Speaker 3: and who is the second sharpest, and who was the

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Speaker 3: third sharpest, and we kind of got this aggregate pull

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Speaker 3: together which allowed us to come up with a waiting

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Speaker 3: system so that we know, in the NFL, this sports

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Speaker 3: book is the sharpest, this sportsbook's next sharpest, and we

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Speaker 3: crafted a weighted, big free line that we call the

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Speaker 3: unobated line. And basically you can use that as sort

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Speaker 3: of like the true price. Now is it the exact

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Speaker 3: true price? Well, no, because nobody knows the exact true price,

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Speaker 3: and this isn't a finite mathematical system like sports gipt.

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Speaker 3: You knows the reason they play the games, right, that's

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Speaker 3: the way they say, and sports is like that, so

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Speaker 3: anything could happen. But this is the sharpest possible efficient

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Speaker 3: market line at that time. And I personally use that

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Speaker 3: one as my basis for finding value at other sports

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Speaker 3: books in a variety of different markets.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I love that, I mean one, it's it's smart

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Speaker 4: it's market informed, its streamlines your works like it's it's

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Speaker 4: highly efficient. Uh, and it removes I think, what is

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Speaker 4: the potential for a good deal of bias, you know,

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Speaker 4: like that I know better bias of either Like, hey,

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Speaker 4: I watched the games, I know the sport, I know

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Speaker 4: the players, I know the teams, I know the key matchups,

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Speaker 4: and that means that I know more than people who

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Speaker 4: are really smart but don't know all of those things.

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Speaker 4: And so I do like that approach. Can you talk

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Speaker 4: a little bit, and by the way I should, I

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Speaker 4: should say Unabated fantastic website. Obviously you two are great.

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Speaker 4: Dan Fabrizio the other founder there, fantastic guy. So fantastic

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Speaker 4: website and the tools, the data is absolutely amazing at unabated. Uh,

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Speaker 4: you have a process for statistically modeling. A lot of

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Speaker 4: betters don't know how to model or are unfamiliar with it.

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Speaker 4: Like this past summer I did a lot of reading

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Speaker 4: on data statistics and then also sports betting, and you know,

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Speaker 4: kind of recrafted my model. You know, I say model

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Speaker 4: is spreadsheets. I'm doing all of the things in spreadsheets, right,

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Speaker 4: you know. But everyone seems to be in this like

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Speaker 4: something of a self taught hack where you're just kind

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Speaker 4: of piecing together things from here or there. Can you

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Speaker 4: talk a little bit about modeling and I guess the

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Speaker 4: way you do it or others who have had success

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Speaker 4: doing it, general guidelines for people who might be looking

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Speaker 4: to get into this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so okay, So we're transitioning here from everything we've

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Speaker 3: talked about in the last ten minutes or so has

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Speaker 3: been this the top down method, I think, as we

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Speaker 3: call it, is where you're kind of going with somebody

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Speaker 3: else's source of truth. Now we're talking about bottom up.

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Speaker 3: And the advantage of bottom up is you're coming up

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Speaker 3: with your own opinions, you're building your own model. It's

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Speaker 3: all about your pre and for some people this is

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Speaker 3: more rewarding to go about sports betting this way. So

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Speaker 3: when it comes to modeling, you made a great point,

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Speaker 3: Matt in that it's really just spreadsheets, because really that's

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Speaker 3: what it is. You know, we all we all like

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Speaker 3: to say, oh, we've got a model, model, model, but

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Speaker 3: really we've got we've got Excel, we've got Google sheets.

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Speaker 3: You know. Some people are using R and Python and

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Speaker 3: things like that to do a little bit more advanced

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Speaker 3: number crunching, but for the most part, we're all kind

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Speaker 3: of using it Excel. It's a great way to kind

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Speaker 3: of see all of your data all at once. And

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Speaker 3: when it comes to modeling, you need to always be

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Speaker 3: thinking about what ingredients are going into a model, because

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Speaker 3: are you really going to beat a sport like the

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Speaker 3: NFL by coming up with all the same data that

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Speaker 3: everyone else could possibly be using. You know, if you're

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Speaker 3: taking all your data from NFL dot Com, chances are

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Speaker 3: you're not getting anything on there that a million other

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Speaker 3: people don't already know and that the line definitely already knows.

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Speaker 3: So you need to come about and say, what do

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Speaker 3: I have unique into this situation, or conversely, what market

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Speaker 3: can I attack that's less efficient than maybe just an

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Speaker 3: NFL main line. You know, I give this example before,

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Speaker 3: I used to bet props on just tight ends because

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Speaker 3: I figured I can go through the tight end stats

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Speaker 3: and I can know what factors match up at a

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Speaker 3: tight end. Because when you think about what a tight

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Speaker 3: end does, sometimes they're blocking, and if there's a deficiency

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Speaker 3: on the offensive line that week for some reason, they're

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Speaker 3: going to be blocking more. Or if this team is

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Speaker 3: going to have to use the run more, they're going

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Speaker 3: to be blocking more now. If they're going against a

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Speaker 3: weak defense with maybe across the middle, that's a good

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Speaker 3: spot for a tight end. If they're using any kind

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Speaker 3: of West Coast offense, that's a good spot for a

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Speaker 3: tight end. So you kind of use these little things

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Speaker 3: and you can kind of get into the weeds a

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Speaker 3: little bit more and you're just focusing on tight ends.

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Speaker 3: That sounds a little weird to say, but the point

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Speaker 3: being is, like you go about things, you have to

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Speaker 3: understand your lane. You can't just go in and build

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Speaker 3: an Excel sheet that's going to beat the NFL. You

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Speaker 3: can build an Excel sheet that's gonna beat number of

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Speaker 3: receptions for tight ends in the AFC South. You know,

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Speaker 3: you can narrow it down, you might be able to

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Speaker 3: find something.

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Speaker 1: Sleeper dot com for details. And when you talk about

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Speaker 1: some of these data sets and some of the things

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Speaker 1: that you're interested in using, yourself, like being able to

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Speaker 1: bet prop specifically on tight ends because you're spoting in

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Speaker 1: inefficiency in that market. What are some of the ways

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Speaker 1: that people are using that are generating these sources of truth?

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Speaker 1: You talk about some of the programs they're using, But

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Speaker 1: if somebody wanted to get into this and begin building

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Speaker 1: their own models, what would your suggestion be on places

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Speaker 1: where they can start.

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Speaker 3: So we have a video series on unobated dot com

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Speaker 3: from a very talented guy who's put out videos before.

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Speaker 3: And I contacted him as his name is T, just

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Speaker 3: a letter T and I contacted him and I said,

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Speaker 3: you have a great way of explaining things. Would you

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Speaker 3: make a series of videos for us? And this was

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Speaker 3: back in the summer, Jill, let's just start with baseball

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Speaker 3: props And so he did. And if you watch all

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Speaker 3: of his videos, and I think we've had like seven

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Speaker 3: or so out. We had another one coming out this week.

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Speaker 3: He has a great kind of way of just stepping

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Speaker 3: you into the next concept, stepping into the next concept,

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Speaker 3: learning as you go, everything from like bootstrapping data to

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Speaker 3: you know, finding sources of data and pulling them into

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Speaker 3: Excel and stuff like that. Things that every modeler would

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Speaker 3: need to know we're transitioning now into football props. We

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Speaker 3: were doing baseball lineup props and now we're doing football,

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Speaker 3: and that's a great way to kind of learn a

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Speaker 3: step as you go type of thing. Other than that,

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of resources out there in terms of

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Speaker 3: coming up with rudimentary models. Andrew Mack has two books

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Speaker 3: out called Modeling Sports Statistics in Excel or something like that,

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Speaker 3: and those are those are great books. They're easy reads,

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Speaker 3: and he has like spreadsheets you can download that kind

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Speaker 3: of give you real world examples of them too, which

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Speaker 3: is which is great. But other than that, it's sort

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Speaker 3: of one of these things that Matt said, you know,

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Speaker 3: we're all kind of self taught, we're all kind of

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Speaker 3: hacking it together. I've I've met very few data scientists

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Speaker 3: in actual sports betting. I've just met a lot of

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Speaker 3: people that think they're data scientists in sports betting.

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Speaker 4: All right, So you know we've talked about modeling, and

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Speaker 4: you know you said you do watch. You don't watch

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Speaker 4: entire games, but you're watching what everyone else watching is

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Speaker 4: the good stuff on Sunday afternoon, a whole bunch of

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Speaker 4: points being scored. Is there anything now that we have

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Speaker 4: an entire week of NFL data, you know, Monday night

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Speaker 4: football last night, is there anything that really stood out

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Speaker 4: to you in week one and wherever it is that

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Speaker 4: your mind goes on this?

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Speaker 3: Well, so everyone says week two is the great overreaction week, right,

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Speaker 3: So you don't want to read too much into what

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Speaker 3: you saw in week one. So I don't want to

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Speaker 3: get into like it does is Chicago? This good? Is

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Speaker 3: San Francisco? That bad? Is Seattle? This good? That sort

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Speaker 3: of thing. What has struck struck me is watching market

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Speaker 3: efficiency from week one to week two. So in other words,

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Speaker 3: those week one on lines, we're out about three months

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Speaker 3: ago and they just sat there and they were slowly

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Speaker 3: were having it into shape. Yet we saw a lot

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Speaker 3: of market movement last week Cleveland as an example, Cleveland

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Speaker 3: went from being a three point favorite down to being

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Speaker 3: a slight dog back up to being like a one

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Speaker 3: or two point favorite, and would you know what, that

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Speaker 3: game lands right around one or two there. So that

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Speaker 3: was that was an interesting case of like how efficient

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Speaker 3: did the market get? Now? Week two comes out and

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Speaker 3: now we have a much shorter span of market efficiency

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Speaker 3: creating creation and we're already starting to see that. Whereas

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Speaker 3: pre season, in week one, a lot of these release

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Speaker 3: shows that came out had had a vast impact on

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Speaker 3: the market. The line was jumping all over the place

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Speaker 3: with these various release shows, which seemed to be the

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Speaker 3: buzz these days, right, But they're less so now because

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Speaker 3: the market can't be as far off as some of

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Speaker 3: the market was dictating before. So another words, in a

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Speaker 3: preseason game, could the market be ten percent off in

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Speaker 3: the NFL? Yeah it could. In week one, could the

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Speaker 3: market be ten percent off? No, no way. Could it

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Speaker 3: be seven five to seven percent off? Maybe? And now

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Speaker 3: we're seeing in week two there were a couple of

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Speaker 3: releases that came out and they were released right around

433
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 3: like minus nine on both Green Bay and San Francisco

434
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 3: and they moved to ten. Well, moving from nine to

435
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 3: ten is not that big of a move. It's more

436
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 3: like five percent, and that's about the limit. So we're saying,

437
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 3: like early week, week two, could the market be five

438
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 3: percent off? Yes, it generally could be. Now if this

439
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:42,640
Speaker 3: was week fourteen and somebody made a release in Monday Tuesday,

440
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 3: the market is not going to react nearly as much

441
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 3: because the market gets more and more efficient as the

442
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 3: year goes on. These early these first four weeks, still

443
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 3: we're still learning about a lot of teams. The market's

444
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 3: still in flux. But as we get further into the

445
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 3: middle of the season, outside of like injury news to

446
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 3: a quarterback or anything like that, you're not going to

447
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,879
Speaker 3: see major swings come from a release show. It's just

448
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: not going to happen. You know, It'd be very tough

449
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 3: to get a line to move through any of the

450
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,719
Speaker 3: key numbers three, the six, the seven, the ten, the

451
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 3: fourteen somewhat, but you just can't get the lines to

452
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 3: move past those key numbers. And so that's one thing

453
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 3: I've been watching is as we get further into week two,

454
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 3: we're going to see less movement from those release shows

455
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 3: as we get into three, four, five, six, even less so,

456
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 3: and I have a feeling they're going to start releasing

457
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 3: a little earlier and earlier, just so they can have

458
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:34,360
Speaker 3: an impact a little bit more.

459
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 4: All Right, I have some questions on particular games that

460
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 4: you mentioned them, and so I just kind of want

461
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 4: to walk through them. So thinking about that San Francisco

462
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 4: Seattle game, and in the preseason look ahead market, right, so,

463
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,159
Speaker 4: obviously Week one lines were released months in advance, but

464
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 4: there were some books that also released lines for weeks

465
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 4: two through seventeen, and so in the early market for

466
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 4: this game, the line was eight and a half. In

467
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 4: the look ahead market on Thursday, this line was eight

468
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 4: and a half. And in the early lines that were

469
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 4: released on Sunday before Seattle played on Monday Night Football,

470
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 4: this line was eight and a half. Seattle goes out

471
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:26,119
Speaker 4: there and wins, surprisingly, wins as an underdog against former

472
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,360
Speaker 4: quarterback for them, Russell Wilson. And now the line has

473
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 4: moved to ten. And so even though they you know,

474
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 4: even though this line has held steady for this entire duration,

475
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 4: even though they went out there and won, even though

476
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 4: San Francisco went and lost on the road in a

477
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 4: horrible situation. Maybe like the Novice better. Even some experience

478
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 4: betters might look at this line and think, Oh, this

479
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 4: line's gonna come down, but instead it actually moved against Seattle.

480
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 4: Can you talk about that, like, as a sharp experienced

481
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 4: sports better who's not focused so much on here's what

482
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,719
Speaker 4: happened in the nuances of the game, but here's what

483
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,360
Speaker 4: is happening within the market. Can you talk about how

484
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 4: it is that you view that line.

485
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 3: Right so with that game, particularly if I pull up

486
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 3: the line history, which I can do by clicking on

487
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 3: the line at any sports book on the unobated screen,

488
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 3: I can see the total line history going back to

489
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 3: actually to May. It was the first time a line

490
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 3: came out on this game, And you're right, it actually

491
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,119
Speaker 3: came out in San Francisco minus seven and a half

492
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 3: back in May, went to eight and a half through

493
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 3: a lot of the preseason. This was a release from

494
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 3: Adam Churnoff earlier today. He sent this out to his

495
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 3: telegram group. And that's what I meant about, Like that

496
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 3: is impacting the line, nothing else, just Adam's narrative. Now, look,

497
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 3: I know Adam. Adam's a great guy. I like Adam

498
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 3: a lot. I'm not making any comment on his handicapping ability.

499
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 3: I'm just saying this is just one guy's narrative. The

500
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 3: fact that it's followed by so many people and they

501
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 3: all hit the line at the same time, that that's

502
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,719
Speaker 3: what forced the move. And I have a theory about

503
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 3: some of these things. I call it the bridge too

504
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 3: far theory, because sometimes this market just goes a bridge

505
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 3: too far, and you know, you got to play it

506
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 3: back at some point. And so I had told people

507
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 3: on our discord, like, look, if this hits ten and

508
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 3: a half, that's a bridge too far, but it won't

509
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 3: be there long. And sure enough, an offshore book briefly

510
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 3: put up ten and a half five seconds it was there,

511
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 3: and then back down because they got snip drill fast.

512
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,160
Speaker 3: Because you know that the ten is a key enough

513
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 3: number and the nine is not a key enough number.

514
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 3: That yeah, a strong wind could possibly push this. A

515
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 3: strong wind metaphorically could possibly push this from nine to ten,

516
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 3: but it ain't going past ten. Ten and a half

517
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: is a bridge too far. And that's the sort of

518
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 3: the market economics you need to learn about the NFL

519
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 3: is how far is too far? How far is a move?

520
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 3: And especially around certain numbers. You know, getting through the

521
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 3: eight and the nine is not that hard. Getting through

522
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,719
Speaker 3: the ten is hard. Getting through the seven hard. So

523
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 3: that's why we see some flux in eight and nine.

524
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 3: Do I think this number is going to come back down?

525
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 3: I do, Actually, I think it'll come back down to

526
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 3: nine and a half by the end of the week.

527
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 3: But that's not necessarily my own narrative or my own handicapping.

528
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: I'm just thinking there's a lot of people out there

529
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 3: that are going to when they're faced with that ten

530
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 3: number up there, they're going to want to go with

531
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 3: the underdog, you know, you know, two digits like that.

532
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 3: In their mind, they just say, Wow, you're giving them,

533
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 3: You're giving them a field goal and a touchdown. I'm

534
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 3: going to go with the plus ten could drive it

535
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 3: back down to nine and a half, all.

536
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 4: Right, I have a fallow up hear, and I gotta

537
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 4: apologize to Tom. I'm just jumping in. I'm not letting

538
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 4: him get his questions in. But you know, so let's say,

539
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 4: you know, I've modeled this, you know, quote unquote modeled.

540
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 4: I've modeled this, I've projected it out, and I think

541
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 4: that this line should be nine now Let's say, just

542
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 4: for the sake of this hypothetical, that you think this

543
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 4: line should be nine and with ten being a key number,

544
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 4: is that enough of a value for you as an

545
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 4: advantage an advantage better and someone who understands the market

546
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 4: and looks at it, is that enough of an advantage

547
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 4: for you to say, Okay, I'm gonna bet this even

548
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 4: at ten because at that key number, I can at

549
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 4: least get the push and I know it's not going

550
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 4: to go to ten and a half or highly unlikely

551
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 4: it goes to ten and a half, and if anything,

552
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 4: it could move back down to nine and a half.

553
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 4: So at ten, there's value here and this is the

554
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 4: time to bet it.

555
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 3: So what I'm doing real quick is I'm just checking

556
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 3: in unabated tools. We have what's an alternate line calculator,

557
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 3: so you can put in what you think is the

558
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,200
Speaker 3: true price, or you can select it from the unabated line,

559
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 3: and then you could put it in an alternate line

560
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 3: and see what that alternate line should be priced at

561
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 3: if given a true line of nine. And so it's

562
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 3: basically saying that if you were to get plus ten

563
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 3: when the line should be nine, it's like getting it

564
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 3: at minus one thirteen. Now that nine is a big

565
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 3: free prices. We're not adding the minus one ten on there,

566
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 3: we're just taking the big free nine, So it's adding

567
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 3: like thirteen cents in there. So there is an edge

568
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 3: here because if you're able to get plus ten minus

569
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 3: one thirteen then and you're able to find that somewhere

570
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 3: at plus ten minus one ten, that's an edge. It

571
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 3: may seem very small. It may seem three cents, you know, jack,

572
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 3: what's what's three cents worth? Well, three cents is actually

573
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 3: worth at that point. It's about about a one percent edge.

574
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 3: And getting a one percent edge in the NFL is

575
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 3: something to pat yourself on the back floor because the

576
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 3: NFL is a tough market to beat. So if you

577
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 3: could be betting things with a plus one percent edge,

578
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 3: you're going to be fine in the long run. And

579
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 3: for a lot of people maybe they're just out there

580
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 3: for the recreation of it. Well, yeah, you get a

581
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 3: little sharper bet because of it. But that's if you

582
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 3: make that line to be nine. You know, if you

583
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 3: think that the market sharp or unabated line right now

584
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 3: on that is, actually it's plus ten minus one oh

585
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 3: five is the unabated line, which is the good of

586
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 3: the sharp books. So you know you'd be disagreeing with

587
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 3: the unabated line. But let's see where the market moves

588
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 3: from here, because I think the market's going to drift

589
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 3: back a little now.

590
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 1: I had some time to go pop a beer enjoy

591
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: some of the champions that are going on right now

592
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: between questions here. But you talk about how it's hard

593
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 1: to beat the NFL, which obviously it's one of the

594
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: most efficient betting markets on the planet because everybody loves

595
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: to bet on it. What are some of your favorite

596
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,959
Speaker 1: markets to try and find an efficiencies in. Is it

597
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: that betters who want to try and play this way,

598
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: especially if they're starting out, might want to veer to

599
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: some of these leagues and some of these some of

600
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: these markets that simply aren't going to get hammered as

601
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: much because there might be a better inefficiency there that

602
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 1: if you do know more about a sport than someone else,

603
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: and it's a niche sport, you truly can spot an inefficiency.

604
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 3: Right. So this is the great paradox, tom is that

605
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 3: the less confidence a sportsbook has as in their prices,

606
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 3: the lower the amount of bets they're going to take

607
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 3: in it. And so with the NFL, a lot of

608
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 3: sports books will take anything you want to bet on

609
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 3: a side or total or on a basically a side

610
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 3: totals they get a little queezy on sometimes, but on

611
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 3: a side, yeah, they'll take anything you bet, especially day

612
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 3: of game. But when you come to other sports, their

613
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 3: limits are much lower and they may have like a

614
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,959
Speaker 3: two hundred dollars limit on WNBA totals. Well, that's your

615
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 3: sign right there that they don't have a lot of

616
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 3: confidence in their line, and you could possibly have a

617
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 3: sharper take on it than they do. It's a more

618
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 3: inefficient market. So I mean, you can take that down

619
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: as far as you want to go. You can take

620
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 3: it down into like minor soccer leagues in Europe and

621
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 3: things like that where you can find lines, but you're

622
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 3: not going to be able to make a lot of

623
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 3: money in the long run doing that because the markets

624
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 3: just don't bear that type of liquidity. So that's the

625
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 3: great paradox of a sports better is how do I

626
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,479
Speaker 3: find something that's weak enough that I can beat it,

627
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 3: but they take enough money that I can actually make

628
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 3: money in the long run doing this. And it's sort

629
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 3: of like training wheels. In my opinion, you need to

630
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 3: attack those smaller markets to train you how to figure

631
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 3: out market efficiency and inefficiency and use that to attack

632
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 3: bigger markets later. I started out attacking home run props

633
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 3: was one of the first thing I did, then strikeouts.

634
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 3: This is back in the mid two thousands, and worked

635
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 3: my way up. I was betting WNBA a little bit.

636
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 3: College sports may still be the sweet spot for a

637
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 3: lot of betters. College football is still quite inefficient, especially

638
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 3: when you get into FCS games and you can find

639
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 3: places that'll take a decent pop on those games. College

640
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 3: basketball is another one where college basketball totals just move

641
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 3: all over the map and if you're quick, you can

642
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 3: catch a lot of things there and they you know,

643
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 3: there's places that'll take five hundred one thousand dollars a

644
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 3: pop on that. So there's different approaches you can do.

645
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 3: The only sport that I actually do my own handicapping

646
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 3: and modeling and everything is the NBA because I think

647
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 3: the NBA is unique in how player factors. You know,

648
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 3: there's only five people on the court for each team,

649
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 3: so player factors matter a lot when a players in

650
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 3: versus when it's out. I don't want to give away

651
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 3: too much. I want to give away my secret sauce.

652
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 3: But point being is, I think there's a lot of

653
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 3: edges to find in the NBA if you get really

654
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 3: into it, and that's the sport that they'll take big

655
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 3: limits on.

656
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 4: All Right. I love that Tom asked a very good,

657
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 4: sort of evergreen philosophical question. I'm going to bring us

658
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 4: back down to earth here by asking a very focused

659
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 4: Week two question. Here, I'm looking at the Rams and

660
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 4: the Falcons. And so the Rams, you know, played season

661
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 4: opening game Thursday Night Football at home, defending champions and

662
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 4: absolutely got trounced by the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills.

663
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 4: And now they've had three extra days to rest, compared

664
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 4: to the Atlanta Falcons, who are going to be traveling

665
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 4: east to west. Uh In the Falcons who almost won

666
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 4: this past week and then somehow lost at the very end.

667
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 3: Uh.

668
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 4: And I will say, uh, you know, the the decision

669
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 4: that head coach Arthur Smith made to punt at the

670
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 4: end of the game one of the worst decisions that

671
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 4: we have really seen. And it's not like I'm just

672
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 4: saying this, uh like to say it. Ben Baldwin has

673
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:35,439
Speaker 4: a bot that looks at fourth down decisions, and he

674
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 4: calculated that this literally was the fourth the worst fourth

675
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 4: down decision UH in the history of the bot's existence.

676
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 4: So it's not like that really factors into it, but

677
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 4: it's just like, Okay, this is a team that has

678
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 4: a head coach that who makes suboptimal decisions, and I

679
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 4: feel like that is a piece of information that is

680
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 4: useful in some way. So thinking about this game here,

681
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 4: in the the preseason look ahead market, this line was

682
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,800
Speaker 4: thirteen and a half. On the Thursday look ahead market,

683
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 4: it was thirteen, and I believe that when the early

684
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 4: lines came out, this line was eleven and a half

685
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 4: and it has been bet to ten and a half.

686
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 4: I don't think there's any chance this line gets to

687
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 4: ten because the chance of them taking la money at

688
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,800
Speaker 4: ten just seems far too great. But I might be wrong.

689
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 4: I might be a donkey here, but you as a

690
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 4: sharp here, how are you looking at this line movement

691
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 4: and the dynamics of these two teams entering the game?

692
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 3: Yes, I think we have probably so. In other words,

693
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 3: we've gone from thirteen to ten and a half. That's

694
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 3: really the move we're analyzing here. The eleven and twelve

695
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 3: are worth very very little. That's another area where strong

696
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 3: breeze can blow the line through eleven and twelve. Ten

697
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 3: and a half, I think is where it has to stop.

698
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 3: It's too much. It would be a bridge too far

699
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 3: to get down to minus ten. Definitely not going through

700
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 3: minus ten unless there's some kind of injury information that

701
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 3: comes out. It's just one of these things where, yeah, thirteen,

702
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 3: Once we got past thirteen, it wasn't stopping again until

703
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 3: ten and a half. When's the last time you remember

704
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 3: seeing a line minus eleven or minus twelve? You know,

705
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 3: they just never exist because it blows too easily to

706
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 3: the ten or thirteen. So yeah, on this one, I

707
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 3: don't have an opinion in terms of handicapping and in

708
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 3: terms of those two teams themselves, but I do not

709
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 3: believe we see If we see a ten, it'll be

710
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 3: very quick and then somebody will jump on it. If

711
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:42,280
Speaker 3: we see a sorry dog wants attention, if we see

712
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 3: anything else, it's not going to get through the ten

713
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 3: or the thirteen.

714
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,879
Speaker 1: Again, guys, football season is here, and if you want

715
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 1: to get in on the action, we recommend heading on

716
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,000
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717
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,920
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718
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,680
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719
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 1: a betmgm account today, and you will get a thousand

720
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:08,319
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721
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:10,920
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722
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:14,000
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723
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: for an account with BETMGM. So get in on the

724
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:20,359
Speaker 1: action today, guys, enjoy the football season and let's cash

725
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 1: some tickets together. Now, I've got another question for you here,

726
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 1: kind of involving specific markets, kind of going a little

727
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: more general, but looking at the vikings versus the Eagles.

728
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 2: This game opened Philly three, and it.

729
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 1: Is plummeted down to Philly one. And in fact, some

730
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 1: books around town now are even offering you anywhere from

731
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 1: Philly minus two vikings plus one. There's a chance that

732
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 1: you might be able to get this game to flip

733
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 1: to the vikings as a favorite, if that's something that happens.

734
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: Are you looking to try and open up a middle

735
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 1: Are you looking at the market and saying I might

736
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 1: be able to get I might be able to get

737
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: Vikings plus one plus.

738
00:37:58,440 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 2: Two depending on where I am.

739
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: And then come back around the other way and grab

740
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,359
Speaker 1: Philly plus two later on if you think the line

741
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: can get that far or is that not something that

742
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,240
Speaker 1: you're particularly looking to do in terms of setting up metals.

743
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 3: So this is a tricky game because you got a

744
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 3: couple of things at factor here. One, both teams were

745
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 3: very impressive in Week one. Secondly, they tend to be

746
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,720
Speaker 3: getting a lot of public sediment, both of those teams.

747
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 3: So sportsbooks, I don't think know which way the action

748
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 3: is going to come in on this one. So they're

749
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 3: protecting themselves. And then third we're around the teaser, the

750
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 3: long teaser sweet spot there of like plus one and

751
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 3: a half to plus two and a half. They probably

752
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 3: want to protect themselves a little bit against Vikings teasers,

753
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 3: but they also don't want to set themselves up so

754
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 3: that they're going to get hit with any Philadelphia teasers

755
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:47,760
Speaker 3: if the line goes through the zero. Now, the zero

756
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 3: itself is not as impressive as a lot of people

757
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 3: think it is. You know, you're saying, well, wait, one

758
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 3: team was favored, now the other team's favorite. Yeah, but

759
00:38:56,719 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: the probability of a tie is so low week one notwithstanding,

760
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 3: But the probability of a tie is so low that

761
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 3: that zero is worth almost nothing. And so really, when

762
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 3: a line comes down to a team being plus one

763
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 3: and moving across to minus one, that's sort of like

764
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 3: a just a one half point across that what would

765
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 3: be a two point move on paper. And I know

766
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 3: that that confuses a lot of newer betters, but you

767
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 3: just have to think of it that way. Is really

768
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 3: you're only gaining a half a point going from minus

769
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 3: one to plus one. So that's what makes that whole

770
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 3: move through the zero seem a little bit more imposing

771
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 3: than it really is. Specifically to your question, if I

772
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 3: see this continue to move and I'm actually surprised it's

773
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:46,800
Speaker 3: continuing to move and it becomes a point where Vikings

774
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 3: are the favorite, I'm not sure. I'm not sure we're

775
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 3: going to get to that point. Just because it is

776
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 3: an Eagles home game on a Monday night, it's very

777
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 3: tough to kind of disabuse people of that notion in

778
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 3: their head of like, oh, this is you know, this

779
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 3: is primetime Monday night football home game. You know that

780
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 3: that home field advantage is worth a lot. So I

781
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 3: don't have to.

782
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 2: Mention the Kirk Cousins narrative Kirkus.

783
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 3: Well, a lot of there's a lot of a lot

784
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 3: of different narratives, So I don't think we're going to

785
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 3: see it go through that. If it does, this is

786
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 3: the sort of thing that people jump on and say, oh,

787
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 3: I got the Eagles at at plus one. You know,

788
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 3: that's that's great, that's that super price. It's one of

789
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 3: those things that I would wait to see if I

790
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 3: could get to plus one and a half and then

791
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 3: I'm going to tease the Eagles. But I don't think

792
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,760
Speaker 3: I'm going to get that to that opportunity. But the

793
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 3: Carolina Cleveland game last week was a good example of that.

794
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 3: People had early teasers on Carolina and then Cleveland moved

795
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 3: and became a slight dog, and they were able to

796
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 3: grab teasers on Cleveland as well, and both sides. One.

797
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 4: All right, I have two more questions here and then

798
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 4: we'll let you go. You've been very generous with your time.

799
00:40:56,760 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 4: So one question here on the Lion and the Commander's game,

800
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 4: and this is more of a philosophical question about kind

801
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 4: of what is what is worth? More So, on the

802
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 4: Thursday look aheadlines, Detroit was a one point underdog and

803
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 4: in the modeling that I had at the time, I

804
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 4: had Detroit as a one and a half point favorite,

805
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 4: and so at that time I was thinking, all right,

806
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 4: there's there's some value here. I know, you know, going

807
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 4: through zero isn't that big of a deal, but there's

808
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,839
Speaker 4: some theoretical value here, and I could bet it now,

809
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 4: or I could wait to see what happens in week one,

810
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 4: and maybe that information is worth more than grabbing a

811
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,959
Speaker 4: bet through you know, the non key line of zero here.

812
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 4: Of course I didn't bet it, and then it opens

813
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 4: flipped the other way pretty close to where I had

814
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 4: it projected. And so my question here is in that situation,

815
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 4: I know that's a very specific situation, but there is

816
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 4: value you in looking at the look aheadlines and and

817
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 4: maybe betting them early. If you actually do have an edge,

818
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 4: what do you think would have been the right move there,

819
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 4: or like, what do you think is worth more like

820
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:17,240
Speaker 4: the knowledge of what happens in a game or betting

821
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 4: based in that situation.

822
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 3: Well, all markets tend towards efficiency. That's something that I

823
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 3: believe in efficient market theory, I guess you could call that.

824
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 3: So as we go along closer to game time, we

825
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:37,800
Speaker 3: get more information, and that is a more efficient price.

826
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 3: I feel like Detroit was already a little bit overbought

827
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 3: with the Hard Knocks narrative and all of that. So

828
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 3: seeing Detroit as a as an early dog there and

829
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,800
Speaker 3: then seeing it kind of moved to a favorite doesn't

830
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 3: seem to be that far off of what that narrative

831
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 3: was kind of into. Is everybody thinking like, oh, Detroit's

832
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 3: they got grit, They're trying harder this year. I do

833
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 3: watch Hard Knocks, By the way, I don't know any

834
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 3: of the players, and so I, you know, I can

835
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 3: definitely see where somebody might say grabbing Detroit as a

836
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 3: underdog on these look aheads would be wise. But I

837
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 3: just I the way that I play the market, where

838
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 3: I'm looking at a source of truth and their efficient number,

839
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,879
Speaker 3: I'm going to miss some of the early moves that

840
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,399
Speaker 3: could have been available to me because I'm waiting until

841
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:35,240
Speaker 3: that efficient number is the most efficient in order to strike.

842
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 3: And in the NFL you don't get a lot of

843
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 3: those opportunities. It's not like, you know, a market maker

844
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 3: has minus two and a half and you're able to find,

845
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 3: you know, plus three and a half on the other

846
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 3: side somewhere else. No one's straddling the three, so that

847
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 3: again that move from Detroit plus one to Detroit. You

848
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 3: can still get a minus one and a half out

849
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 3: there on Detroit. It's not that big of a move.

850
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 3: And the only regret I would have is if I

851
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 3: was thinking that Detroit was a good teaser option, if

852
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 3: there was a plus one and a half out there earlier,

853
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 3: you know, I might have would have jumped on that.

854
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 3: But you know, I just can't say, Matt, that I

855
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 3: would have felt much FOMO on this line move because

856
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 3: this is all based on week one, right, this is

857
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 3: all based on Detroit's defense. Looked a little suspect maybe

858
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 3: Wentz still has something in his tank, although some of

859
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 3: those late game plays that he did in the Jaguars

860
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 3: game could make you think otherwise. So I don't know.

861
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 3: I don't know which way this one's going to go,

862
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 3: to be honest with you, but I know it's probably

863
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:46,280
Speaker 3: not going to reach three, And you know, at this point,

864
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:50,280
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that I would be too much fomo

865
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 3: for missing out on Detroit one.

866
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:56,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, final final question here. You said maybe

867
00:44:56,280 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 4: you can name ten NFL players, mostly quarterbacks. I'm assuming

868
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 4: you know who Dak Prescott is because you talked about

869
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 4: him earlier and how he said it's broke or it

870
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 4: might be broke talking about his thumb, which in fact

871
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 4: is broken, and he will be out for a significant

872
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 4: amount of time. It seems like at least four weeks,

873
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 4: maybe upwards of eight, potentially longer. And so you know,

874
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:27,879
Speaker 4: looking at that game we have coming up, Dallas hosting Cincinnati,

875
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:32,319
Speaker 4: Dallas for a lot of time was favored, you know,

876
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 4: the early look aheadlines, and you know in the preseason

877
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 4: favored by two on the Thursday night look aheadline, favored

878
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:42,320
Speaker 4: by two and a half. Obviously for Sunday Night football,

879
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 4: that line comes down and it reopens and you have

880
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 4: the Cincinnati Bengals as seven point favorites now in a

881
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 4: wild swing situation like this where it's obviously tied to

882
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 4: one player, obviously injury induced. Do you have general opinions

883
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 4: about how to attack markets like this, because like we

884
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 4: don't know, like we can have a sense of like,

885
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 4: Okay Dak is worth this relative to the spread, and

886
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:12,480
Speaker 4: his backup Cooper Rush might be worth this relative to

887
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 4: the spread, but really we do not know. So do

888
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 4: you have thoughts on situations like this because they come

889
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 4: up you know, four to eight times a year.

890
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,879
Speaker 3: Mm hm, I do. They're not my own opinion, they

891
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:29,920
Speaker 3: are the opinion of Rufus Peabody, who I consider the

892
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 3: best sports better on the planet. I'm unbiased on that

893
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 3: he doesn't give me his picks, even though I think that.

894
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 3: Here's the thing. When Rufus does his power ratings, he

895
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 3: ranks QB one and QB two, and we put that

896
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:47,399
Speaker 3: into our simulator on unabated dot com. And so even

897
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 3: previous to that game where Dak got injured, you could

898
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:53,279
Speaker 3: go in there and you could see the Dallas with

899
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 3: QB one, which is Dak Prescott was plus two point

900
00:46:56,360 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 3: two and Dallas with QB two was minus five point five.

901
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 3: In these power ratings, you can take the difference in

902
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 3: that comes out to seven point seven points. And if

903
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 3: you look at the line move, it was Dallas minus

904
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 3: two and a half, it's now Cincinnati minus seven and

905
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 3: a half. And there's some eights out there. And you

906
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 3: also have to figure out that going from one to

907
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 3: one is only really worth a half a point. Well,

908
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 3: that really works out to be about a seven and

909
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 3: a half to eight point move, which is what Rufus's

910
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 3: power ratings predicted. I know guys that work at some

911
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:36,399
Speaker 3: of the big sports books in Vegas and offshore, they

912
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 3: absolutely use Rufus's numbers because he clearly knows what he's

913
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 3: talking about. So I don't have any doubt that somebody

914
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 3: went to our simulator and quick looked up, you know,

915
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:47,319
Speaker 3: and they have their own numbers too that they work with,

916
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 3: because it was exactly that. But that also tells you

917
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 3: where the bridge too far theory can come in. You know,

918
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:58,720
Speaker 3: Dak is worth seven point seven points Dak to Cooper

919
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,799
Speaker 3: Rush anyway, and so then you know what if they

920
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 3: go out and they trade for Jimmy Garoppolo. Look at me,

921
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:08,279
Speaker 3: I'm just throwing names out there. What would that be worth?

922
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,359
Speaker 3: You know? You got to factor that in and kind

923
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 3: of work that into the whole scenario because Jimmy Garoppolo

924
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 3: is probably better than Cooper Rush. So there's a lot

925
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 3: of stuff you do. And that's why I only tend

926
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 3: to know quarterbacks is because they're the ones that can

927
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 3: swing a line seven points. You know, Aaron Rodgers last

928
00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:28,879
Speaker 3: year with COVID nine plus points. Tom Brady man, We're

929
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,320
Speaker 3: always keeping track of Tom Brady because look, a forty

930
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 3: five year old can't stay healthy forever, so you always

931
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 3: got to be factoring and what's the Tom Brady drop off?

932
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:39,399
Speaker 3: If that should happen. Plenty of other guys and there's

933
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:41,240
Speaker 3: there's some people that have been in the league where

934
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 3: the backup would probably a better choice. Chad Hanky was

935
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 3: an example of that where he was better than the

936
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 3: starting quarterback at the time.

937
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 4: We're like Joe Flacco with Tom's Jets right there.

938
00:48:56,040 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 3: Absolutely like that line improved and you see that in

939
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 3: our rufus's power ratings. So knowing that is a key

940
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 3: to that's just enough. Bottom up knowledge of NFL is

941
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 3: knowing those quarterbacks. And if you're curious, you know, you

942
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 3: would say, Jack, what's the second most valuable position on

943
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:19,360
Speaker 3: a football team that could affect the line? It's the

944
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 3: offensive lineman. You know, the center's worth maybe a point

945
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 3: and a half. The offensive linemen are worth about a point.

946
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 3: But really beyond that, running backs, wide receivers, they're all interchangeable.

947
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 3: The drop off from RB one to RB two is

948
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 3: never a big enough for it to be worth more

949
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 3: than a point in the in the line.

950
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 1: As the Bengals learned this week. Though long snapper can

951
00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 1: be pretty important.

952
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I saw that that wash that cost me

953
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 3: some money.

954
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 2: That costs a lot of people some money, I believe.

955
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:54,319
Speaker 1: All Right, Well, Jack, I could keep you here for

956
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 1: another three hours and continue this discussion in perpetuity because

957
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 1: it has been absolut lutely fascinating. Thank you so much

958
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:05,879
Speaker 1: for your time today. We can't begin to state how

959
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,479
Speaker 1: much we appreciate you being on with us. One more

960
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 1: time for the listeners, where can they go if they

961
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 1: want to find you in all the great work you're doing.

962
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 3: Well, we're doing a lot of great work at Unobated

963
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 3: dot com. We have an odd screen, we have tools,

964
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 3: we have stimulators, we have props odds. It's tough to

965
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 3: find propods right now. We've got a propods screen, We've

966
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 3: got prop stimulators, We've got everything you could possibly want

967
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 3: to get an edge at sports betting. And it's a paysite,

968
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 3: but we offer a seven day trial. Come check us out,

969
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 3: ditch out after six days. I don't mind, you know,

970
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 3: it's fine so unobated dot com and then you can

971
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:41,880
Speaker 3: find me on Twitter doing my usual ranting and raving

972
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 3: at at cap Jack two thousand.

973
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 2: Well for Matt F. The Oracle and Captain Jack.

974
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:52,360
Speaker 1: I'm Thomas Viola and as the Great Joe Pi Sapio

975
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 1: would say, the story of the game goes on. Guys,

976
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 1: let's cash some tickets this week. Have a good one,

977
00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:08,320
Speaker 1: everybodys