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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,

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Speaker 1: joined by Bo mcbraer. One Hawaiian tournament down, One Hawaiian

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Speaker 1: tournament to go. We will start today's show with a

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Speaker 1: brief recap of the Century, the first PGA Tour event

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five, and then we will give you

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Speaker 1: a full betting preview of the Sony, the second leg

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Speaker 1: of the two leg Hawaiian Swing of the PGA Tour,

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Speaker 1: and then we will conclude the show with our one

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Speaker 1: and done picks. Let's start with the Century. Hideki Matsuyama

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Speaker 1: roared out of the gates with a convincing win in Kapalua.

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Speaker 1: The Century is always a birdie fest, and Matsuyama made

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Speaker 1: a lot of birdies. He finished minus thirty five for

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Speaker 1: the week with rounds of sixty five, sixty five, sixty

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Speaker 1: two and sixty five. Not too bad, Bo, Nothing worse

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Speaker 1: than a sixty five for Hideki. He finished three shots

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Speaker 1: ahead of a guy you and I were both pretty

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Speaker 1: much in on last week, Colin Morikawa. Marikawa went into

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Speaker 1: the final round one shot behind Hitdeki, but got off

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Speaker 1: to a slow start. On Sunday, he was only one

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Speaker 1: under par in the front nine, parred both of the

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Speaker 1: par fives, and uh, you know, if you let the

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Speaker 1: birdie train pass you by at Kapalua, you are going

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Speaker 1: to lose ground in a hurry, and that's pretty much

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Speaker 1: what happened. Sung Jim was the only other player within

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Speaker 1: shouting distance of Matsuyama. He was a solo third at

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Speaker 1: minus twenty nine. Johnny Vegas fourth at minus twenty five,

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Speaker 1: and lidvig Oberg, Corey Connors and Thomas Detree tied for

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Speaker 1: fifth at minus twenty four. Bo I came up empty

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Speaker 1: last week. I'd outright bets on Moricawan Sung Jam, but

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Speaker 1: didn't bother to pop top five bets on either of

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Speaker 1: those guys, So.

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Speaker 2: A big blank for me.

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Speaker 1: How did you do and did you have any takeaways

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Speaker 1: from the century?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I didn't didn't win much. It was just a little

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Speaker 4: bit on the top five on Morikawa, which was disappointed

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Speaker 4: because he ended up shooting the tournament record over four days. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: Hideki Matsiyama shot the tournament record by four shots and

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Speaker 4: took it home. So all the elements to a big

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Speaker 4: win to lead off an opening salvo of the PGA

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Speaker 4: tour season were there, except we didn't account for Matsuyama

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Speaker 4: going completely nuclear and not making any mistakes over four

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Speaker 4: days and Marikawa just one little slip up in the

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Speaker 4: morning on Sunday and that was it. It was curtains.

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Speaker 4: Matsuyama was flawless, and we knew that could happen. He's

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Speaker 4: a great ball striker. That's why we were on Marikawa.

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Speaker 4: They're a similar style player. Matsiyama is just unbelievably perfect

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Speaker 4: for four days and you tip your cap to a guy.

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Speaker 4: But it really stunk because we had ten to one.

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Speaker 4: I had a pretty nice ten to one lined up

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Speaker 4: for myself when they started play on Sunday, and then

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Speaker 4: when he only went one under on the front nine,

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Speaker 4: I was like, well, that's.

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Speaker 2: Probably it, and indeed it was. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Hideki seems to have like two tournaments like this every

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Speaker 1: year where he is just spot on with the ball

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Speaker 1: striking and rolling in putts, and he's pretty tough to

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Speaker 1: beat when he's on the top of his game, like

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Speaker 1: he is, you know, one of the best in the

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Speaker 1: world when he has his a game. So well, let's

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Speaker 1: turn our attention to the Sony and as noted earlier,

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Speaker 1: this is a full field event with one hundred and

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Speaker 1: forty four players, and unlike the Century, the Sony will

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Speaker 1: have a cut. The Sony will once again be played

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Speaker 1: at wila A Country Club, a par seventy, playing two

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Speaker 1: seven forty four yards. This is a much much different

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Speaker 1: course than the Plantation course at Cappelua capeluas long, wide

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Speaker 1: open with big, slow greens. Wile A is a short

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Speaker 1: course with a half dozen dog legs, tree line fairways

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Speaker 1: with overhanging trees and some spots. Fairways aren't necessarily narrow,

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Speaker 1: but because of the dog legs and trees, accuracy off

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Speaker 1: the tea is critical. You have to be really precise

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Speaker 1: with how you play these angles. The Bermuda greens at

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Speaker 1: Wyla are smaller and faster than the ones we saw

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Speaker 1: last week at the Century. They let the rough Girl

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Speaker 1: about three quarters of an inch longer here in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three than it had been to make.

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Speaker 2: The course just a little bit tougher.

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Speaker 1: But still you're going to see low scores here, usually

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Speaker 1: something in the minus seventeen to minus nineteen range typical

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Speaker 1: winning score. Accuracy off the tea important, short iron play important,

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Speaker 1: and the short game is important. Especially potting. The defending

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Speaker 1: champion is the late Grayson Murray. Grayson Murray was a

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Speaker 1: surprise winner last year, beating Keegan Murray and Ben On

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Speaker 1: in a playoff after finishing at minus seventeen. Sadly, Murray

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Speaker 1: took his own life last May. He had battled addiction

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Speaker 1: issues and depression. So yeah, rest in peace, Grayson Murray.

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Speaker 1: But he that was a memorable win for sure. And

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Speaker 1: I think oh Murray went.

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Speaker 4: Off at out of nowhere too, Yeah, like.

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Speaker 1: Two hundred and fifty to one or maybe even longer

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Speaker 1: than that. So before that, other pass champions. Seewoo Kim

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Speaker 1: won the Sony in twenty twenty three with the score

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Speaker 1: of minus eighteen, one shot better than Hayden Buckley. Hideki

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Speaker 1: won here in twenty twenty two. Matt Sayama finished minus

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Speaker 1: twenty three that year, beating Russell Henley in a playoff.

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Speaker 1: Kevin Not finished twenty one under to win the Sony

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, and Cameron Smith won it at

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Speaker 1: a relatively high winning score of minus eleven in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: beating Brendan Steele in a playoff. Beforecast this weeks for

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Speaker 1: dry conditions, temperatures of around eighty degrees fahrenheit and somewhat

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Speaker 1: breezy conditions this week bo with wind in the twenty

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Speaker 1: excuse me, ten to twenty mile an hour range.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of why Leya? And what's it

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Speaker 2: going to take to win the sony?

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Speaker 4: So I always called it why Leya and then I

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Speaker 4: played the when I was when I was a kid.

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Speaker 4: I mean, this is a long time ago, but there

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Speaker 4: is a video game on Nintendo sixty four that was

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Speaker 4: called why Lai country Club Golf and it just had

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Speaker 4: one course, this one Whyley Country Club on o Wahu,

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Speaker 4: and he only had one golfer that you could choose from.

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Speaker 4: It was like before Tiger Woods video game came out.

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Speaker 4: But I would play that over and over and over

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Speaker 4: and over and over and again. But now that's how

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Speaker 4: I know it's pronounced why Lie, Why Lie?

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Speaker 2: Okay, there is.

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Speaker 4: A why Leya that's on the same island, but it's

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Speaker 4: this is why lie, Why lie? When you can tell

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Speaker 4: the truth. But it's in the game. I remember it

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Speaker 4: was a par seventy two because it was more of

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Speaker 4: a members type video game that was developed by Nintendo,

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Speaker 4: and it was a par seventy two, but it was

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Speaker 4: still seven thousand yards and I really good at that game,

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Speaker 4: and now that the pros have been playing there for

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Speaker 4: a long time, it's one of the longest standing events

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Speaker 4: on the PGA Tour the Sony Open, if not the longest,

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Speaker 4: I'm sure it's it's up there. But seven thousand yards

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Speaker 4: par seventy very short. But those dog legs are very tricky,

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Speaker 4: and the trade winds on Awahu are very important because

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Speaker 4: they always blow, and that's why they're called trade winds.

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Speaker 4: Like they you can count, you can you can actually

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Speaker 4: measure that stuff is going to be consistently windy there.

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Speaker 4: It's gonna be breezy no matter what because it's always

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Speaker 4: passing through there. This course is when they they grew

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Speaker 4: the rough out last year. It made a difference the

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Speaker 4: court that it went from twenty one to twenty two

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Speaker 4: under par to eighteen under par. That that is substantial.

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Speaker 4: I don't know how well we'll see the field play here,

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Speaker 4: especially after some of them played at Kapalua, which is

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Speaker 4: super duper easy and not at all like this course.

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Speaker 4: Like they're both in Hawaii. That's about the only thing

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Speaker 4: that's similar between Kappolua and Wili. It's gonna be accuracy,

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Speaker 4: it's gonna be precision, it's gonna be consistency. And these

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Speaker 4: these greens are not easy to put. They're a little

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Speaker 4: quicker than Kapolua, they're smaller, they're harder to hit, but

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Speaker 4: they're also they're not easy to read, and they have

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Speaker 4: a little more undulation. So I think that if you

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Speaker 4: have a guy that's just out there throwing darts like

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Speaker 4: Grayson Murray was last year, he was unconscious on approach,

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Speaker 4: he was hitting all the fairways and he was so

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Speaker 4: good at sticking it close with those short irons that

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Speaker 4: it was that was a foregone conclusion, is if you

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Speaker 4: hit it close here, you're going to be right up

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Speaker 4: there with everybody else. And it's just it's it's hard

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Speaker 4: to predict who's gonna win here because you get those

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Speaker 4: out of the out of the ordinary winners all the

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Speaker 4: time here. But at the same time, we have some

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Speaker 4: really really scorching hot golfers coming into this golf course,

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Speaker 4: so we might see a return to low twenties under par.

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Speaker 4: That's that's kind of what I'm thinking, is just the

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Speaker 4: field strength is better this year, and we have some

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Speaker 4: really incendiary golfers right now, playing this course for four days,

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Speaker 4: I think it's gonna be really fun fun indeed.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, the models I've seen the people who do

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Speaker 1: the statistical modeling. It seems like the key things here

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Speaker 1: will obviously potting, but maybe above all else approach from

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Speaker 1: like one hundred and twenty five to one hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy five. Yep, like that that is key long and

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Speaker 1: you know middle irons.

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Speaker 4: Something like sixty sixty four percent of the approach shots

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Speaker 4: are going to be within that bucket.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so all right, we will get to the odds

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Speaker 2: in just a minute.

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Speaker 4: But first, download the free Betting Pros app for iOS

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Speaker 4: and Android. With Sportsbooks Sinc. You can automatically track your

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Speaker 4: bets across all major sports books in one spot. Easily

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Speaker 4: monitor your bet performance by sport and bet type, including

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Speaker 4: game picks, props, and parlays. Create custom betting systems to

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Speaker 4: find winning trends and profitable opportunities. Get a free trial

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Speaker 4: of Betting Pros Premium by downloading the app and activating

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Speaker 4: your trial on the upgrade screen.

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Speaker 1: All right, onto the odds for the Sony. All odds

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Speaker 1: are courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday afternoon. Let's start

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Speaker 1: by looking at some of the favorites. Fresh off his

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Speaker 1: victory at the Century, Zaki Matsuyama opens as the favorite

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Speaker 1: of plus nine hundred, not a surprise considering that he

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Speaker 1: won last week and as a past winner in this event.

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Speaker 1: Corey Connors, the very precise ball striking Canadian, is at

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Speaker 1: plus fourteen hundred, Tom Kim and Russell Henley r Plus

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Speaker 1: two thousand, Ben On and Keegan Bradley are plus twenty

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Speaker 1: five hundred, Robert mcintyren Maverick McNeely are plus twenty eight hundred,

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Speaker 1: and Seawoo Kim and See He Thinks are plus three thousand.

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Speaker 1: Do you like any of the favorites.

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Speaker 4: Ball, well, yeah, of course it's Adeki Matziama, past winner

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Speaker 4: a couple of years ago. Nine to one is not

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Speaker 4: bad for a betting favorite, especially when we just saw

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Speaker 4: dominate an easy golf course. This is not an overly

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Speaker 4: difficult golf course because of its short length. I think

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Speaker 4: betting Matziyama at plus nine hundred is okay, But I

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Speaker 4: almost would rather play Corey Connors at fourteen to one

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Speaker 4: because he impressed me last week all the things that

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Speaker 4: he does well. We're going to play very well at Kapalua.

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Speaker 4: They're going to play even better at Sony as long

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Speaker 4: as he can keep up the short game form he

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Speaker 4: showed last week. Other than a couple mistakes around the

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Speaker 4: greens last week, he was pretty much spot on in

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Speaker 4: the short game area, where he's been god awful of

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Speaker 4: most of his career. This is still one of the

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Speaker 4: premier ball strikers in the entire world. And if he

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Speaker 4: can be flatline on the short game and putting, this

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Speaker 4: is going to be a guy who go really low

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Speaker 4: on a golf course like this. We've seen it a

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Speaker 4: lot from Corey Connors. When he wins, it's usually on

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Speaker 4: a course like this where it's just target practice and

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Speaker 4: he's out there hitting all the fairways, hitting all the greens,

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Speaker 4: sticking it close. And it doesn't matter how bad you're

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Speaker 4: at your putting is. If you're sticking it to six

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Speaker 4: to ten feet all the time, like you're giving yourself

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Speaker 4: all those opportunities. It's the Scottie Scheffler paradox.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Tee to green. This course suits Corey Connors perfectly.

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Speaker 1: It's just if he pots well, he is going to contend.

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Speaker 1: There's no question about it. If he puts poorly. That's

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Speaker 1: the one thing that can you know, cheat us out

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Speaker 1: of whatever we decide to put on him this week. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so Matsuyama, I agree bo my thoughts exactly, Like if

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Speaker 1: we were getting him at maybe plus seven hundred plus

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Speaker 1: six hundred, yeah, you'd be a little less appealing, But

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Speaker 1: nine to one not bad considering the form and that

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Speaker 1: he's won here before, although that was his only top ten.

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Speaker 4: Here, And that's a keen line, Like they're playing into

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Speaker 4: our heart strings already, knowing that we have a past

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Speaker 4: a champion who's coming off a big win in the

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Speaker 4: same state, and the lay person doesn't know that these

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Speaker 4: golf courses are polar opposites, and they'll see the surface

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Speaker 4: level stats and be like, well, Hiteki's going to win,

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Speaker 4: and they'll take nine to one and run all the

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Speaker 4: way to the sports book window. But at the end

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Speaker 4: of the day, you got to boil it down to

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Speaker 4: who's the best value. Even if they're the favorite, it's

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Speaker 4: got to be a decent value. I think the plus

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Speaker 4: nine hundred numbers is almost too good. It's where it's

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Speaker 4: like it's almost a sucker bet. You're like, Okay, what

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Speaker 4: are we walking into here? Because they don't have a

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Speaker 4: bunch of glitzy lights in Las Vegas for no reason.

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Speaker 4: That's kind of in the back of my mind here.

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Speaker 4: So if I bet Hieki, it's not going to be aggressively.

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Speaker 4: But Connors is there, and for the opposite reason is

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Speaker 4: Corey Connors. I'm betting Mav McNeely at twenty eight to

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Speaker 4: one because this is a guy with an immaculate short game,

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Speaker 4: one of the best putters on the planet, who's all

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Speaker 4: of a sudden found some ball striking for over the

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Speaker 4: last six months and he's red hot. He looked amazing

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Speaker 4: last week striking the ball, which is he's never He's

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Speaker 4: never been known for that. He's been known for rolling

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Speaker 4: putts and getting up and down to get himself out

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Speaker 4: of trouble when he sprays the ball everywhere. Matt McNeely

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Speaker 4: got a little bit of coaching at the end of

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Speaker 4: last year and ever since then he's been razor sharp.

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Speaker 4: And this is his type of golf course. I think

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Speaker 4: Mav McNeely twenty eight to one is a steal.

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Speaker 1: Tom kim Bo, do you think he suits this course

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Speaker 1: suits him? I mean he has made just one appearance

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Speaker 1: here and he missed the Cots, but you know, took

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Speaker 1: second place of the World Hero Hero World Challenge last month.

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Speaker 1: It does seem like he is a game to win

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Speaker 1: here potentially.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's I don't know what the deal is by

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Speaker 4: how he could have missed the cut here since he

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Speaker 4: won the Windham a few years ago. That's a compcourse

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Speaker 4: for the Sony Open at Wili. I just don't see

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Speaker 4: how he could play poorly here, but he apparently did

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Speaker 4: that one time. I think he's he's definitely a contender here.

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Speaker 4: I think his odds are incredibly short for what he's

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Speaker 4: shown us recently. His putting has been very bad. His

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Speaker 4: short game's okay, his iron play is but keeps him

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Speaker 4: in contention a lot of times. He's a very accurate

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Speaker 4: driver of the golf ball. He should play well here.

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Speaker 4: I just don't know that I like his number this week.

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Speaker 4: It's a little short for my liking.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't like twenty to one either that much.

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Speaker 1: Russell Henley, on the other hand, bo at twenty to one.

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Speaker 1: He is a Bermuda ace for one thing. He plays

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Speaker 1: Bermuda greens Well. Got his first PGA Tour win here

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Speaker 1: back in twenty thirteen. He was fourth here last year,

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Speaker 1: second in twenty twenty two. Bo I've had some not

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Speaker 1: very good luck betting Russell Henley on this tournament before,

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Speaker 1: but he's come Olhays so close, and I think I'm

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Speaker 1: going to be suckered into betting him again.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I just worry about his consistent form. Like when

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Speaker 4: we see Russell Henley dialed in, he can win this

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Speaker 4: tournament pretty easily because it just fits him like a glove.

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Speaker 4: What a great iron player who also makes I mean,

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Speaker 4: this course is exactly what Russell Henley needs to contend is.

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Speaker 4: It's a short course, the demands accuracy and good putting.

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Speaker 4: It's a Russell Henley golf course, and he's always played

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Speaker 4: well here. But every time we seem to bet him

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Speaker 4: because of all these reasons over the years, he comes

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Speaker 4: out not necessarily flat, but maybe he's not on his

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Speaker 4: a game when he comes to the Sony. That's kind

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Speaker 4: of in the back of my mind, just looking at

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Speaker 4: his recent form at the end of last season, not

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Speaker 4: the greatest. But at the same time, if he comes

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Speaker 4: in razor sharp, then he could absolutely win this thing.

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Speaker 2: Again.

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Speaker 1: Let me just mention a couple of other guys. Ben

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Speaker 1: On has made two appearances here. He was twelve two

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Speaker 1: years ago second last year. I mentioned earlier Seewoo Kim

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Speaker 1: as a pass champion. We also finished fourth here in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, but recent results in Wi le Wyli excuse me,

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Speaker 1: have been a mixed bag and he didn't play especially

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Speaker 1: well in this century. And Keegan Bradley, the Ryder Cup

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Speaker 1: captain to be maybe trying to earn his way onto

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Speaker 1: the team as a playing captain. Second here last year

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Speaker 1: and was fifteenth last week at the Sony, so he's

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Speaker 1: in pretty good form and has shown some aptitude at WHYLEI.

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Speaker 4: So all right, bo, let's lots of names to consider

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Speaker 4: this week. And like I said before, a lot of

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Speaker 4: these guys are red hot, and this course is right

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Speaker 4: for the picking. It's gonna be really entertaining.

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Speaker 1: Yes, it is all right. Let's look at some of

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Speaker 1: the mid range plays. Taylor, Pendrith, Kurt Kittayama and JT.

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Speaker 1: Post and Or plus thirty five hundred. Davis Thompson, Luke

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Speaker 1: Clinton and Austin Ekrot are plus four thousand, Ben Harmon,

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Speaker 1: Ben Griffin and Harry Hall are plus forty five hundred.

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Speaker 1: Chris Kirks plus five thousand, stepstracs plus fifth five hundred,

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Speaker 1: and then we have a big group at plus six

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Speaker 1: thousand with Danny McCarthy, Daniel Berger, Tom Hogy, Cam Davis, Mackenzie,

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Speaker 1: Hughes and Harris English. And at plus sixty five hundred

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Speaker 1: we have Thomas Deetree who played well last week, Billy Horschell,

332
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Speaker 1: Andrew Novak and Michael Thorbjornsen.

333
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Speaker 2: How about these guys, bo anyone you like? Here?

334
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Speaker 4: Big group of more guys that can absolutely win this

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Speaker 4: tournament and sifting through it. This is where handicapping your

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Speaker 4: own lines is important. Is before you look at the

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Speaker 4: sportsbook lines, try to set your own lines for these players,

338
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Speaker 4: and where the discrepancies lie in your favor is where

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00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,360
Speaker 4: you should bet. Most of the time. I have an

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Speaker 4: emotional attachment to Kirk Kitty Yama. He has pretty good

341
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Speaker 4: history here, but thirty five to one seems awful short

342
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Speaker 4: for a guy who hasn't been in the best form.

343
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Speaker 4: I would love to bet him, but not at that number.

344
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Speaker 4: Looking at Luke Clanton, however, I had him handicapped at

345
00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 4: twenty five to one. Luke Clanton at forty one is

346
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,919
Speaker 4: a green flag. Green light. We are pedal to the metal,

347
00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 4: betting the house on Luke Clanton at forty to one

348
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Speaker 4: because that it's a sparkling number for a guy that

349
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:12,880
Speaker 4: played out of his mind last year.

350
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Speaker 1: Yeah, very impressive young player. And it might be like

351
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Speaker 1: one of those things where Akshay Pattillo where we want

352
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Speaker 1: to get him now before the lines moved down on

353
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Speaker 1: him forever.

354
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a forty to one on him at this

355
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Speaker 4: course where it kind of it's like that the Corey

356
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 4: Connors thing from tee to green. You're thinking, oh, it's

357
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Speaker 4: a short course. You have to find the fairway and

358
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,679
Speaker 4: you have to hit it close. That's Luke Clinton. This

359
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:44,440
Speaker 4: guy's a short iron wizard. He's very aggressive, a young

360
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 4: most of these younger players are very aggressive. There's really

361
00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 4: not that much penalty out here, which we said, yeah,

362
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 4: you want to hit the fairways and hit the greens

363
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Speaker 4: close so that you can score, but there's really no

364
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:01,400
Speaker 4: there's no penalty for missing. You got bunkers, you got

365
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 4: some decent rough but this golf course isn't gonna penalize

366
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Speaker 4: you too much unless you miss the birdie train like

367
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Speaker 4: like last week. It's it's like making pars here is

368
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Speaker 4: not bad, but it's also not great. Luke Clinton is

369
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 4: an aggressive player that's gonna be able to fire at

370
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Speaker 4: some pins a lot. Like my other pick in this

371
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Speaker 4: range at Michael thorpe Jornsen, another guy who plays great

372
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Speaker 4: short iron work. When he played well last year, it

373
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Speaker 4: was on courses of this length under seventy four hundred yards.

374
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Speaker 4: He was a different golfer. The longer courses kind of

375
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:35,639
Speaker 4: ate him up because he was hitting longer irons and

376
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 4: he was ever used to at Stanford. Clinton and thorby

377
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,119
Speaker 4: Jornsen are two young guns that are again like you

378
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 4: said with Okshay is get them while they're cheap, and

379
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 4: they're paying out big time for winning because when they hit,

380
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 4: those odds are gonna go bye bye forever.

381
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know Clinton's already his odds are starting

382
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 1: to come down a bit plus four thousand. But Thorbejornsen

383
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Speaker 1: at plus sixty five hundred, I know that's.

384
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 4: A best kept secret on tour, best kept secret on tour.

385
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:08,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, kind of intrigued, Like I feel like Thomas Deetree

386
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 1: is a better player than these this number suggests, so

387
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Speaker 1: I think there's some value there.

388
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 2: JT. Posten.

389
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Speaker 1: I'm always interested in the guy who hits it straight

390
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,479
Speaker 1: and putswell on this course, but plus thirty five hundred

391
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 1: kind of a yellow light price for me. I'd rather

392
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 1: see him at around, you know, fifty to one than

393
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Speaker 1: thirty five to one.

394
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 2: Let's see Taylor.

395
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 1: Pendrith finished tenth here last year in his second Sony appearance,

396
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 1: and he was thirteenth at the Century, so kind of

397
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 1: a momentum play potentially. Ben Griffin has farredwell in the

398
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 1: Strokes gain metrics here in two appearances, He's finished thirtieth

399
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 1: and twelfth. And Daniel Berger hasn't played with Sony since

400
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, but he finished seventh that year in

401
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 1: his three top fifteen's in his last six trips to Wili.

402
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 1: So what about longer shots bo guys with odd of

403
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 1: seventy to one, or longer anyone you're taking a flyer on.

404
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,639
Speaker 4: I'm taking a flyer on a guy who has played

405
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 4: very poorly for a long time, but he's always got

406
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 4: the talent to get hot and make a course like

407
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,199
Speaker 4: this his own. We saw it when he won the

408
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 4: shoot know, when he got tackled by security at the

409
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:25,439
Speaker 4: Royal Canadian Open, when Nick Taylor won but Hadawin was

410
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 4: in that hunt and that's a very similar course that year.

411
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 4: Adam Hadwin at one hundred and twenty to one, it's

412
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 4: just a miss price for me, and it's baked in.

413
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 4: One hundred and twenty to one is because he's played

414
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 4: terribly for the last calendar year. But this is the

415
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,120
Speaker 4: kind of course where he can wake up not really

416
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 4: have a lot of pressure on him. He's got his

417
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,360
Speaker 4: beautiful wife. That's a great Twitter followed by the way

418
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 4: Adam Hadwin's wife on Twitter is hilarious because she spends

419
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 4: most of her tweets making fun of her husband for

420
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 4: various things, including being tackled by security at the Royal

421
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 4: Canadian Open. Yeah, I just I like Adam Hadwin this

422
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 4: week at one hundred and twenty one. He's just way

423
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 4: too good of a golfer worth with a good course

424
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,640
Speaker 4: fit here. That's just a misprice that I'm going after.

425
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 4: But I'm gonna be putting a lot of my eggs

426
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 4: in the basket of some of these mid range guys

427
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 4: that we talked about.

428
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, had when a guy who can absolutely go bonkers

429
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 1: with the potter at times. I've to admit I had

430
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 1: trouble finding long shots that I like in this event, Boa,

431
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 1: it seems like the guys with slightly shorter prices are

432
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 1: the best values. One guy you kind of interested in

433
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 1: me is mac Meisner just because he's good with his.

434
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 2: Short and middle irons. Yes, like really really good from

435
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 2: that range.

436
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 4: And I looked at him to pat it was my

437
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 4: eyebrow went up on one side when I saw mac

438
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 4: Meisner at the number that he's at.

439
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 2: Was it eighty?

440
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 4: Is that is that right?

441
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,199
Speaker 2: Yes? Eighty to one eighty for.

442
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 4: Mac Meisner is intriguing. I will have to revisit that

443
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 4: maybe as a live bet if he's if he's like

444
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 4: maybe because he's a he might slip really quickly because

445
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 4: he's relatively unknown. If he gets off to a couple

446
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 4: pars and a couple guys go out early. That's a

447
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 4: guy who I wouldn't mind live betting at a ninety

448
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 4: five to one hundred or more.

449
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, fairly accurate driver the bond and just a wizard

450
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 1: with the short irons. All right, bol what do you

451
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 1: have on your betting card as now?

452
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 4: All right? So I have outright on Corey Connors at

453
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 4: fourteen to one, Mav McNeely at twenty eight to one

454
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 4: with a top ten kicker. I have outrights and top

455
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:37,120
Speaker 4: tens on and top twenties on Clanton and Thorbjornsen. Those

456
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,439
Speaker 4: are my ladder picks in the mid range. Let's go

457
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 4: for the big bucks, baby. And then I threw out

458
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 4: I threw out a quarter unit. Why not on Adam

459
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 4: hadw with on one hundred and twenty to one?

460
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 2: Very nice? All right?

461
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 1: Right now, I've got ben on at plus twenty five

462
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 1: hundred to win and plus five hundred for a top five.

463
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 1: I've got JT posting for a top five only at

464
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: plus six fe. I just don't I don't really like

465
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 1: j T to win, but I like j tit to

466
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: maybe make some noise.

467
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with mag Meisner.

468
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 1: I'm a little something on an outright at at plus

469
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 1: eight thousand, although I kind of like your idea why

470
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 1: betting him one time man and also plus six hundred

471
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: for a top ten there, But as convinced, I always

472
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 1: have to add the guy you're passionate about, Bow and

473
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: your Maverick McNeely. Your soliloquy on him has kind of

474
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 1: sold me here. Bow, so I'm gonna hasn't.

475
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 4: Heard that he's also he's also from northern California, so

476
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 4: that's naturally where I'm gonna go.

477
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 2: That's it, all right, bias, never mind, it's.

478
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 4: Off, but I have more information about those guys because

479
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 4: they're they're in the news.

480
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: Good point, And you showed your lack of bias by

481
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: not jumping on Kurt Kidiyama this week, so I have

482
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 1: to give you credit for that, as much.

483
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 4: As I wanted to. Yeah, the number was not good.

484
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 4: Watch he's gonna win right.

485
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 2: Now, Onto the one in.

486
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: Onto the one and done competition. Bo took Tony Finow

487
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: last week. He tied for fifteenth, good for two hundred

488
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:15,360
Speaker 1: and ninety two thousand dollars. I justin Thomas a little disappointing,

489
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: tied for twenty sixth, good for one hundred and sixty

490
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: three three hundred and thirty three dollars. I'm up first

491
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,479
Speaker 1: this week ball. I'm gonna take Ben on a player

492
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 1: I want to use at some point here, and I

493
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 1: don't know how many other great spots there are forum.

494
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 2: This feels like a good one.

495
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 4: And I'm gonna go parlay that what we were just

496
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 4: talking about with Maverick McNeely. That's who I'm going with

497
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 4: this week, let's go mav.

498
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 2: All right.

499
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 1: So there it is Maverick McNeely for Bau mcbraer and

500
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 1: Ben On for Pat fitz Morris, and that is going

501
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: to do it for this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast.

502
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 1: We will be back next week as the PGA Tour

503
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: returns to the Mainland with a preview of the American

504
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 1: Express X.

505
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 2: Until then, so along everyone.

506
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you

507
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,439
Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

508
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

509
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,760
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510
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 3: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

511
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 3: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros