Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harrison.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi.
Speaker 1: It is time for our early look at next week's lines,
Speaker 1: and with me to break it all down is Rob Pizzola,
Speaker 1: a pro sports better.
Speaker 2: Rob. How's it going, man?
Speaker 3: It's going well.
Speaker 4: Interesting time of year now, obviously with everything getting into
Speaker 4: full swing. So this is one of my favorite times
Speaker 4: a year as a sports better.
Speaker 2: Yeah, me too.
Speaker 1: This is a really good time overall. And you know,
Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of Thanksgiving. I feel like, given
Speaker 1: my profession, my family has become pretty accustomed to me
Speaker 1: being glued to the TV throughout Thanksgiving, so it's gonna
Speaker 1: be pretty fun. But of course, you know, we've got
Speaker 1: the three Thursday games here, a rarity for the season,
Speaker 1: so we've got a lot to look into now. Rob
Speaker 1: and I are going to go through each game on
Speaker 1: the week thirteenth slate, and we'll be using the consensus
Speaker 1: odds over at bettingpros dot com. Those are the aggregate
Speaker 1: odds that you're gonna find from a bunch of different sportsbooks. Now,
Speaker 1: the Lions are gonna move as bets come in. Odds
Speaker 1: makers are going to adjust, so pay close attention in case,
Speaker 1: like us, you particularly like or do not like any
Speaker 1: given line. All right, rob let's dive in here with
Speaker 1: the Thanksgiving games, and we'll start, as always with the
Speaker 1: Lions game, the first game of the week, the Bears
Speaker 1: visiting the Lions. The current odds listed on our consensus
Speaker 1: odds are the Bears laying two and the over under
Speaker 1: here at thirty nine. Now that has dropped a bit
Speaker 1: from the look aheadline of forty one.
Speaker 2: It's hard to back the Bears.
Speaker 1: Lately, but they do beat the Giants. Mitchell Trubisky looks
Speaker 1: quasi competent. The defense still looks strong, though not quite
Speaker 1: as dominant as they did last year. Meanwhile, the Lions
Speaker 1: are still rolling with Jeff Driscoll. They lose to the
Speaker 1: hapless Redskins. They may have lost Snax Harrison in this game.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure of the extent of the injury. But
Speaker 1: it's Thanksgiving, their home. So how do you feel about
Speaker 1: the Bears laying two and the over under at thirty nine?
Speaker 4: So definitely the Bears are going to get a lot
Speaker 4: of Thanksgiving Day action here, I think, both by the
Speaker 4: general public and by professionals, and mainly that's because of
Speaker 4: the Lions injury report. So Jeff Driscoll limited in practice
Speaker 4: today because of a hamstring injury. There's a very realistic
Speaker 4: possibility that they're going to have to go to the
Speaker 4: third string quarterback, who is someone I've never heard of
Speaker 4: in my life. I believe his name is David Brow
Speaker 4: or something along. I don't even remember his name, to
Speaker 4: be completely honest with you. Was a backup at college,
Speaker 4: was the fourth stringer to start the season for the
Speaker 4: Cleveland Browns. So because of that, I just don't see
Speaker 4: much anyone willing to really back the lines in this situation.
Speaker 4: I think the number will continue to climb, so get
Speaker 4: in early on the Bears. And it's not just the
Speaker 4: quarterback position for the Lions. If you look at the
Speaker 4: early injury report, it is a complete disaster for them
Speaker 4: with a number of players either limited in practice today
Speaker 4: or not practicing whatsoever. So definitely the Bear is going
Speaker 4: to get a ton of action. I could see this
Speaker 4: even going above three up to three and a half.
Speaker 4: It's very very rare to see something move that much,
Speaker 4: and through the key number of three, especially when they
Speaker 4: were down around minus one earlier today. But certainly, I
Speaker 4: think there's just going to be a lack of resistance
Speaker 4: for all the Bears money that's coming in.
Speaker 1: Do you think that any because again I saw the
Speaker 1: limited practice reports for most of them, and again Dressco
Speaker 1: Driscoll practiced, but he was limited with a hamstring injury.
Speaker 2: I mean, do you.
Speaker 1: Think though that they're just kind of taking it easy
Speaker 1: here because I didn't feel like they came out of
Speaker 1: that game with being like, oh man, they're totally banged up.
Speaker 1: I don't know how they're going to be able to
Speaker 1: turn around. I didn't even know that Driscoll was injured
Speaker 1: until I saw the practice report at all. Do you
Speaker 1: think that this is something where it could legitimately put
Speaker 1: their playing time in jeopardy? So, I mean, I know
Speaker 1: you're obviously not an inside or anything like that, but
Speaker 1: if you do like the Bears, this is something then
Speaker 1: that you would take into consideration because you do think
Speaker 1: there's a legitimate chance, essentially based on the practice reports,
Speaker 1: that they could be significantly limited.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think at this point. I mean, it's always
Speaker 4: a judgment call in the NFL, right, I mean when
Speaker 4: you're betting earlier. Looking at the early board, you're not
Speaker 4: going to get the true scope of things. And sometimes
Speaker 4: things are going to work in your favor, and sometimes
Speaker 4: things are going to work against you. You take the Eagles,
Speaker 4: for example, last week, who were expected to have potentially
Speaker 4: Jordan Howard back and al shonn Jeffery back in the lineup,
Speaker 4: and then Sunday morning comes and they're not playing, and
Speaker 4: that significantly effects the handicap of the game altogether. So
Speaker 4: you have to use reason. But typically when players are
Speaker 4: limited in practice, especially on a short week, it doesn't
Speaker 4: bode well. And some of these guys not practicing altogether
Speaker 4: is a complete problem for them. Looks like they're gonna
Speaker 4: have cluster injuries in the secondary. I think the Detroit
Speaker 4: Lions are a complete mess this week. And what makes
Speaker 4: it even more difficult is, obviously, like I said, preparing
Speaker 4: with only three days, trying to come up with a
Speaker 4: game plan for a quarterback who's never expected to see
Speaker 4: time whatsoever against a very good defense. I'm just struggling
Speaker 4: to see how the Lions compete in this game unless
Speaker 4: the Bears handed to them, and the Bears are fully
Speaker 4: capable of doing that. I mean, they run a horrible offense,
Speaker 4: and they can definitely throw away the game with some turnovers.
Speaker 4: But certainly I just see, like I said, there's gonna
Speaker 4: be there's probably gonna be no resistance at this number
Speaker 4: and just money pouring in on the Bears to the
Speaker 4: point where the oddsmakers are going to have to really
Speaker 4: raise this number up.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: No, look, I love the Bears, Certainly, the d anything
Speaker 1: less than the key number of three, it's just really
Speaker 1: difficult to see a scenario again unless the Bear is
Speaker 1: essentially handed to him, and we know Mitchell Trubisky is
Speaker 1: more than capable of doing that. But unless they really
Speaker 1: handed to him, it's a little difficult to see the Lions.
Speaker 2: Coming in on top.
Speaker 1: So anything under the key number, I agree, if you
Speaker 1: like it right now, it's probably a good idea to
Speaker 1: get in. Let's move on to the Bills at the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Cowboys here laying seven and the over under at forty
Speaker 1: four and a half. Look, headline was seven and a half,
Speaker 1: so it has ticked down a little bit to the
Speaker 1: key number of seven, but not significantly. The Bills get
Speaker 1: back on track here at home against the Broncos with
Speaker 1: a strong showing particularly defensively. But now they go on
Speaker 1: the road to take on what is essentially a desperate
Speaker 1: Cowboys team that lost an ugly game against the Pats
Speaker 1: where they really couldn't do much offensively, not entirely their fault,
Speaker 1: of course, the Pats are a great defense, and the
Speaker 1: weather was abysmal. But how do you feel here the
Speaker 1: Cowboys laying seven at home on Thanksgiving with the over
Speaker 1: under forty four and a half.
Speaker 4: I think the likely you'll get market support on the
Speaker 4: Cowboys and probably on the over in this game as well.
Speaker 4: The Bills are eight and three by record, but a
Speaker 4: lot of the advanced metrics are not going to be
Speaker 4: appealing for them, especially if those who are handicapping using DVOA.
Speaker 4: Where the Bills are twenty fifth this year the Cowboys fourth. Now,
Speaker 4: I don't know if that money's gonna come right away.
Speaker 4: I think potentially, if you're a shark better you'd much
Speaker 4: rather get the Cowboys at six and a half than seven.
Speaker 4: But ultimately I just see this closing at seven or higher.
Speaker 4: I don't think there's gonna be a ton of sharp
Speaker 4: support on the Bills in terms of the total Dallas'
Speaker 4: offense is really good.
Speaker 3: Their defense is.
Speaker 4: Not and forty four and a half right now as
Speaker 4: the consensus total in this game. I would probably see
Speaker 4: some support coming in on the over in this game,
Speaker 4: even up to forty five forty five and a half,
Speaker 4: definitely not down below forty four, which is a key
Speaker 4: number in the NFL. So I think that that's the
Speaker 4: way it's gonna head. I'm not sure if I'm going
Speaker 4: to be involved in this game altogether, but I do
Speaker 4: think I expect that the sharp money will be on
Speaker 4: the Cowboys in the over.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have a strong feel necessarily for the line.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think at seven is about right. I
Speaker 1: agree with you though that the total. You know, I
Speaker 1: feel like the over is gonna get the majority of
Speaker 1: the bets. I think I'll probably be in on that
Speaker 1: as well. I mean, I feel like in the end,
Speaker 1: given unless Mari Cooper is significantly limited, Obviously he's been
Speaker 1: battling that knee injury, and he was on the sidelines
Speaker 1: quite a bit during that game against the Patriots, despite
Speaker 1: the fact that it was closed. So if he is
Speaker 1: hampered and it's a Thursday game, then that does change things.
Speaker 1: But assuming that he's a full go, and he practices
Speaker 1: in full this week and he's ready to go. I
Speaker 1: do think that this is going to be a little
Speaker 1: bit of a get right game, even though the Bills
Speaker 1: have a very strong defense. Of course, they're vulnerable against
Speaker 1: the run, so you'll see a lot of Ezekiel Elliott
Speaker 1: that could you lean towards the under considering they want to.
Speaker 2: Run the ball.
Speaker 1: But I feel like this is a little bit going
Speaker 1: to be a get right game here. But the Cowboys
Speaker 1: offense and the Bills can score. As much as Josh Allen,
Speaker 1: you know, isn't the most accurate quarterback in the league,
Speaker 1: he's certainly able to move the ball pretty effectively both
Speaker 1: on the ground, and John Brown is having a great season,
Speaker 1: so I do think that there will be points score.
Speaker 1: So I agree that money and sharp betters will probably
Speaker 1: hit the over. Let's move on to these Saints at
Speaker 1: the Falcons the night game on Thanksgiving, Saint Sierra laying
Speaker 1: six and a half with the over under at fifty
Speaker 1: two weeks ago. Look, the Falcons really manhandled the Saints
Speaker 1: in New Orleans, but the Saints here are obviously heavily favored.
Speaker 1: They're coming off that big win against the Panthers with
Speaker 1: the last second field go. Meanwhile, the Falcons, who had
Speaker 1: looked outstanding the past two weeks, particularly their defense, come
Speaker 1: back down to earth against the Bucks. The offense looks
Speaker 1: completely out of sync. Julio Jones gets banged up. He's
Speaker 1: listed as it did not practice today. Again, I take
Speaker 1: it a little bit with a grain of salt on
Speaker 1: these Monday practices on a short week, because I think
Speaker 1: they're just being careful. But he is listed as it
Speaker 1: did not practice, and again he was in and out
Speaker 1: of that game with the shoulder injury. So how do
Speaker 1: you feel here? Saints on the road laying six and
Speaker 1: a half with an over under of fifty.
Speaker 4: I'm not high on the Falcons this year. I've been
Speaker 4: betting against them quite a bit. I'm also not high
Speaker 4: on the Saints. But really, I think the Falcons a
Speaker 4: lot of the yardage that they've put up this year
Speaker 4: has been in garbage time, and that's kind of inflated
Speaker 4: their yardage numbers and their yards for play numbers when
Speaker 4: they've been trailing for a lot of the season. With
Speaker 4: that said, I do expect that eventually we're going to
Speaker 4: see some market support on Atlanta just because they played
Speaker 4: the Saints so tough couple of weeks ago. But ultimately
Speaker 4: I think that move is gonna come late, because when
Speaker 4: you think about this, this is the third game on
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving Day slate. The reality is the public betters are
Speaker 4: gonna see New Orleans minus six and a half. They're
Speaker 4: gonna think that that's free money, and there's just gonna
Speaker 4: be a ton of money on.
Speaker 3: The Saints regardless.
Speaker 4: Either it's the chase game of the day where people
Speaker 4: have lost earlier on in the first couple of games
Speaker 4: and now they're kind of doubling up on the Saints,
Speaker 4: or it's the opposite, where they've won earlier in the
Speaker 4: day and they feel comfortable to put their bets on
Speaker 4: the Saints. So there's gonna be large handle on this game.
Speaker 4: If you're a sharp better, why bet the Falcons early
Speaker 4: now knowing that there's gonna be a ton of money
Speaker 4: coming in.
Speaker 3: On the Saints regardless.
Speaker 4: So I think ultimately, closer to game time, you'll see
Speaker 4: some money come in on the Falcons. Potentially we might
Speaker 4: see this number get up to seven seven and a
Speaker 4: half before you see some resistance there. I don't think
Speaker 4: I will be involved. I mean seven and a half.
Speaker 4: I'd certainly consider the Falcons at home, especially, like I said,
Speaker 4: with the way that they played the Saints tough a
Speaker 4: couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 3: That defense really showed up to.
Speaker 4: Play in that game. But aside from that, it's not
Speaker 4: a game that I love. Definitely, sports books will be
Speaker 4: cheering for the Falcons outright win because the Saints will
Speaker 4: probably be involved on every single teaser imaginable this weekend
Speaker 4: as well, So huge liability probably building for books on
Speaker 4: the Saints.
Speaker 2: Yeah, how do you feel?
Speaker 1: How do you think about that when books are I mean,
Speaker 1: you know what's going to happen on this game, right,
Speaker 1: Despite the fact that the Falcons beat up on the
Speaker 1: Saints two weeks ago, the public this just screams when
Speaker 1: you're under a touchdown, It screams the public to back
Speaker 1: the Saints. Do you consider that at all when you're
Speaker 1: thinking about a line and saying like it really seems
Speaker 1: like the books are sort of inviting the public to
Speaker 1: go here and they're probably going to be on the
Speaker 1: hook for a Falcons. You know, if the Falcons fail
Speaker 1: to cover, I mean, does that factor into your equation
Speaker 1: as to who you're going to back? Each and every
Speaker 1: week or does that something that you have your model
Speaker 1: and that's all there is.
Speaker 3: I don't factor in public bets.
Speaker 4: I think there's a little bit of a misperception with
Speaker 4: the whole fade the public thing, And I mean people.
Speaker 3: Are always like the books.
Speaker 4: The books win money, so if you're just on the
Speaker 4: same side of the books, you're going to win money
Speaker 4: over time. But there's a number of fallacies or problems
Speaker 4: with that line of thinking. The first one is that
Speaker 4: the books are making the majority of their money off
Speaker 4: of parlays and teaser bets, not necessarily straight bets, so
Speaker 4: the hold on straight bets is significantly lower than that
Speaker 4: of parlays and teasers. Then, on top of that, the
Speaker 4: books charge a big When you're betting the same size
Speaker 4: side as a book, you're paying a vig whereas they're
Speaker 4: charging the bet or the opposite. So I'm not a
Speaker 4: big believer in the fade the public strategy. I don't
Speaker 4: think books are typically setting the public up for some
Speaker 4: type of bet or anything like that. I think in
Speaker 4: this scenario it's pretty simple to me. They've put out
Speaker 4: a line that will probably see the public bet one way,
Speaker 4: sharp's bet the other way. It kind of counters a
Speaker 4: little bit, but ultimately it's not a big factor in
Speaker 4: my handicapping, because I mean, the reality is the public
Speaker 4: still does get games right. And if you're gonna continuously
Speaker 4: just ignore your opinion on a game because other people
Speaker 4: like it as well, I think you're doing yourself at
Speaker 4: the service.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a great point. And you know,
Speaker 1: part of the thing I also think about is that
Speaker 1: I feel like there are times really where the books
Speaker 1: don't mind taking a side, and I think that that's fine.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're not always going to be right, and
Speaker 1: I think it's fine if they're not just looking to
Speaker 1: balance it out, if they know they're going to be
Speaker 1: heavy on the Saints and they're willing to take that risk,
Speaker 1: and I think sometimes that's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 2: So I agree, you know, I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't always feel comfortable necessarily when the vast majority
Speaker 1: of you know, it's something like you know, let's say
Speaker 1: seventy percent or above, are with the public. It does
Speaker 1: make me a little queasy, and it at least makes
Speaker 1: me rethink how I'm looking at the game. But I
Speaker 1: like the insight into not letting it really control your decisions.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Eagles at the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: The Eagles here currently laying nine and the over under
Speaker 1: at forty six. The Eagles, as you mentioned earlier, they're
Speaker 1: just decimated offensively, missing a ton of skilled players, Jordan Howard, Alston,
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Nelson, Agalore, injuries up and down the offensive line.
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz, you know, is banged up, apparently he's going
Speaker 1: to play in this game. And then they're the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: You've got Ryan Fitzpatrick, You've got Devontai Parker, and that's
Speaker 1: pretty much it. So how do you feel here about
Speaker 1: the Eagles. It's big number here, laying nine over underd
Speaker 1: forty sive in Miami.
Speaker 4: I think ultimately this is going to come down to
Speaker 4: the Eagles injury report, because at the end of the day,
Speaker 4: if you do have a somewhat healthy Eagles team, I
Speaker 4: know they're only five and six on the year. I
Speaker 4: know Carson Wentz hasn't looked good, but they're still significantly
Speaker 4: more talented than the Miami Dolphins, who really don't do
Speaker 4: anything well. So ultimately, this is one of those where
Speaker 4: I would just advise waiting to see what happens with
Speaker 4: the Eagles injury report. I certainly wouldn't want to back
Speaker 4: the Dolphins personally. I sort of talked about this on
Speaker 4: the periscope that I do on my Twitter each week.
Speaker 4: But the Dolphins had these I would call them regular
Speaker 4: prices early in the year. I mean, they were touchdown
Speaker 4: underdog to Baltimore. There were some games where the spreads
Speaker 4: were realistic, and then they weren't covering. I think it
Speaker 4: was four straight games to start the year where they
Speaker 4: couldn't cover spread. All of a sudden, you got these
Speaker 4: massive inflated numbers seventeen points, twenty twenty one points, and
Speaker 4: the Dolphins covered a string of games in a row.
Speaker 4: And now we're back down into what I would call
Speaker 4: the reasonable range. And I don't want to back the
Speaker 4: Dolphins at what I consider to be a somewhat reasonable price.
Speaker 4: In order to back Miami, I need it to be
Speaker 4: an obscene number because this is a really bad football team.
Speaker 4: So for me, it's ultimately gonna be Eagles or nothing.
Speaker 4: I still do think that, I mean, the Eagles are
Speaker 4: better than a five and sixteen.
Speaker 3: They're tenth in Dvoway.
Speaker 4: They just haven't been able to put it together this
Speaker 4: year offensively, and defensively in the same game. But certainly
Speaker 4: if they get some weapons back, especially Ashon Jeffrey, would
Speaker 4: be a really nice one for them to actually have
Speaker 4: a number one receiver. I could see some market support
Speaker 4: on the Eagles here in this number going up even further.
Speaker 4: But I ultimately do think that this game and where
Speaker 4: this line moves is going to be dictated by who
Speaker 4: is playing for the Philadelphia Eagles on sie.
Speaker 1: So let's say that the reports for the Eagles. By
Speaker 1: the way, I do want to mention I neglected to
Speaker 1: give out Rob's Twitter handle at the beginning, He's at
Speaker 1: Rob Pizzela at his name. Let's say that the injury
Speaker 1: reports are great for the Eagles, right, Everybody certainly is
Speaker 1: coming back Lane Johnson, Alshon Jeffrey Nels, Nageler, Jordan Howard
Speaker 1: and everything like that. Where would you expect this line
Speaker 1: necessarily to move throughout the week.
Speaker 4: I think you'd see a creep above ten, I mean
Speaker 4: ten and a half. You might start to see a
Speaker 4: little bit of buyback on the Dolphins. I'm not quite
Speaker 4: sure on that, but I think it could get above
Speaker 4: ten depending on the injury status for the Eagles.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next game here,
Speaker 1: Jets at the Bengals. Jets here are laying it's now
Speaker 1: down to three and a half. It was legitimately four
Speaker 1: when I checked five seconds before we started recording, and
Speaker 1: the over unders at forty one. And I'm sure part
Speaker 1: of the reason that it is on its way down
Speaker 1: is that the Bengals came out today and said that
Speaker 1: they are going back to Andy Dalton as opposed to
Speaker 1: Ryan Finley. Certainly that makes them a stronger team if
Speaker 1: you've seen Finley play lately. The Jets, though they continue
Speaker 1: to roll. They look solid offensively so long as they
Speaker 1: can face a team without a pass rush, which is
Speaker 1: kind of what the Bengals have. So how do you
Speaker 1: feel here about the Jets laying three and a half
Speaker 1: the over under at forty one.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's really tough with the Jets, obviously for the
Speaker 4: reasons that you just mentioned. They're playing much much better
Speaker 4: as of late, but they really haven't played anyone. It's
Speaker 4: been cupcakes for them for a while now, with the Giants,
Speaker 4: the Redskins. Now, I don't want to call the Raiders
Speaker 4: a cupcake, but not the greatest scheduling spot for the
Speaker 4: Raiders with the early start on the East Coast having
Speaker 4: to play the Chiefs in the next week. I mean,
Speaker 4: the Raiders pulled a car in the third quarter of
Speaker 4: that game. That tells you all you need to know
Speaker 4: about how much they're preparing for the Chiefs coming up
Speaker 4: this week as well. But ultimately, I do think you're
Speaker 4: going to see a couple of things here. We saw
Speaker 4: a little bit already, as you mentioned, but I think
Speaker 4: more money will come in on the Bengals. I think
Speaker 4: more money will come in on the over in this game,
Speaker 4: barring some really bad weather in Cincinnati. And that's actually
Speaker 4: something I should point out. Typically this point of the year,
Speaker 4: totals in half of these games are going to be
Speaker 4: influenced by weather. If it's windy in these East Coast
Speaker 4: cold places, you're going to see the totals come down
Speaker 4: in these games, regardless of the matchup, just because we
Speaker 4: know that wind is such a factor in games. Ultimately,
Speaker 4: if you see clearer conditions and games not being super cold,
Speaker 4: you probably see them go up. It just really has
Speaker 4: an influence later on in the year as we go on.
Speaker 4: But I do see a bigger than a half point
Speaker 4: difference between Finley and Dalton and I think the market
Speaker 4: will see that as well. So I think this number
Speaker 4: probably comes down to plus three. I think this total
Speaker 4: probably on the rise to closer to forty two forty
Speaker 4: two and a half, again, barring some really bad weather
Speaker 4: in Cincinnati. I'm not saying I love either, but I
Speaker 4: think that's what the market will support.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would go with the over on this. I
Speaker 1: think both teams are going to be able to move
Speaker 1: the ball fairly effectively.
Speaker 2: Again, you know, the Jets, they've been able to move.
Speaker 1: The ball for the majority of the year. Again, it's
Speaker 1: largely dependent on the pass rush. It's why the Raiders
Speaker 1: laying three was a little bit surprising when you looked
Speaker 1: on the surface. But you know, they're the type of
Speaker 1: team that you know their defense had been playing better,
Speaker 1: but they certainly don't have a strong pass rush that
Speaker 1: fits right into the Jets hands. And again, the Jets
Speaker 1: defense is largely better against the run. That's where primarily
Speaker 1: the Raiders like to live their life through Josh Jacobs
Speaker 1: here and again, the Bengals, they aren't great, but Dalton
Speaker 1: certainly adds a bit of a dimension that they have
Speaker 1: been missing in the past couple of games.
Speaker 2: So I agree.
Speaker 1: I think the over is going to tick up. If
Speaker 1: you like it, you should probably get it now. And
Speaker 1: I could see also the spread continuing to trickle down
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Speaker 1: And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight
Speaker 1: hundred gambler. All right, let's move on here to the
Speaker 1: Titans at the Colts. Here are laying three with the
Speaker 1: over under at forty three. The Colts is a tough
Speaker 1: one on Thursday to the Texans. They do get that
Speaker 1: mini by of course, they're still down Marlon Mack. He's
Speaker 1: already been declared out for this game. The Titans look.
Speaker 1: They continue to look extremely strong offensively now that Ryan
Speaker 1: Tannehill is under center and Derrick Henry gets rolling in
Speaker 1: this cold weather games as he often does. They've got
Speaker 1: some injuries to their secondary but overall their defenses playing well.
Speaker 1: So how do you feel here in the divisional game,
Speaker 1: Colts laying three over under at forty three.
Speaker 4: I don't think we're going to see much movement on
Speaker 4: the side, to be honest with you, I think there's
Speaker 4: a pretty large contingent of the population that probably views
Speaker 4: these teams as equal teams. With that said, the Titans
Speaker 4: have been drawing some money lately. They end up closing
Speaker 4: four and a half point favorites over Jacksonville with a
Speaker 4: lot of late money coming in on that game last week.
Speaker 4: I think probably what you'll see is the total being
Speaker 4: bet up. That's been a consistent trend now for Titans
Speaker 4: games for the most part, and for the reason that
Speaker 4: you just mentioned. I'm not a Ryan Tannehill fan, but
Speaker 4: you can't argue with what he's done in the limited
Speaker 4: sample so far. Now. Granted there's been some bad defenses
Speaker 4: in that spot, but ultimately he's been able to move
Speaker 4: this offense. He's gotten their success rates up to a
Speaker 4: respectable rate. Yards per play way up for the Titans
Speaker 4: offense as well. So forty three seems like a short number.
Speaker 4: I think this will be bet up probably to forty four,
Speaker 4: So I think you'll see some money on the over.
Speaker 4: In terms of side I think you're more likely to
Speaker 4: see the market back the Colts because of that mini
Speaker 4: bye week, because the Titans are coming off will blow
Speaker 4: out win. I think potentially you could see some Colts
Speaker 4: market support, but probably not too much. Maybe up to
Speaker 4: minus three, minus one to twenty something along those lines.
Speaker 4: I personally like the over in this game, just even
Speaker 4: talking and talking myself into it now. I do like
Speaker 4: this Titans offense quite a bit. I think he can
Speaker 4: move the ball on this defense as well. So forty
Speaker 4: three seems like a short number in good conditions in
Speaker 4: Indianapolis at Lucas Oil.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the Lookouad line was forty two, so it's
Speaker 1: already trending up with good reason. As we mentioned with Tanheill,
Speaker 1: this strikes me as a game that's just not going
Speaker 1: to be heavily bet. There just doesn't seem like an
Speaker 1: obvious side here. It seems like a pretty even matchup.
Speaker 1: That's why you know, a divisional game with the Colts
Speaker 1: at home laying three, I don't see much movement, sort
Speaker 1: of exactly what you said. I don't see that this
Speaker 1: line is going to move. I'll be shocked if it
Speaker 1: ends at anywhere other than minus three unless people are
Speaker 1: really you know, because of how dominant the Titans looked
Speaker 1: against the Jaguars and how good Ryan Tannel looked and
Speaker 1: Derek Henry, unless they're sort of buying into that. I
Speaker 1: would really expect this to be a not particularly heavily
Speaker 1: bet game, at least on the spread. But I agree
Speaker 1: with you that the over under is probably going to
Speaker 1: tick up, and I do as well. Kind of like
Speaker 1: it certainly at forty two at the look headline, but
Speaker 1: even at forty three, because I feel like both teams
Speaker 1: are going to look to establish themselves offensively in this one.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Browns at the Steelers. Browns
Speaker 1: here or laying one. The look aheadline was Steelers laying
Speaker 1: one and a half, so things have certainly changed there.
Speaker 1: The over under at forty the Steelers continued to really
Speaker 1: do nothing offensively. Duck Hodges manages to get them a win,
Speaker 1: but you know, they're probably still without James Connor. They're
Speaker 1: probably still withou ju Juie Smith Schuster, who's battling both
Speaker 1: the concussion and the knee injury. Meanwhile, the Browns continue
Speaker 1: to roll over Miami. The offense looks much stronger now
Speaker 1: that they've added Kareem Hunt. When they have the two
Speaker 1: back sets, it's really making things work there. Darvis Landry
Speaker 1: playing extremely well. There's some bad blood the team's met
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. You've got the whole Miles
Speaker 1: Garrett thing hanging over their head, and again Miles Garrett
Speaker 1: being out, you know is does affect the Browns defense,
Speaker 1: even though you didn't really see it against Miami for
Speaker 1: obvious reasons. So how do you feel here a divisional
Speaker 1: game in Pittsburgh, Browns laying one with the total at forty.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're certainly going to get that revenge game narrative
Speaker 4: for the Steelers, obviously with what transpired a couple of
Speaker 4: weeks ago. What I'm looking for here is the status
Speaker 4: of Olivia Vernon on the Browns defensive line, because with
Speaker 4: him out, they're missing both of their best edge rushers
Speaker 4: and Miles Garrett and Olivia Vernon, so that could certainly
Speaker 4: give I'm assuming Hodges this week. I'd be surprised if
Speaker 4: they went back to but I'm assuming Hodges will have
Speaker 4: some time in the pocket, and I think he's capable.
Speaker 4: I think he's a better quarterback than Kyle Mason.
Speaker 3: Rudolph.
Speaker 4: I'd certainly be more interested in backing the Pittsburgh Steelers
Speaker 4: with Hodges under center. Personally, I do think you're going
Speaker 4: to see some market support for the Steelers at some point.
Speaker 4: I think they'll close a favorite. Their numbers are pretty
Speaker 4: good defensively this season. There's probably not much separating these
Speaker 4: two teams. And when you consider that the Browns ended
Speaker 4: up closing around a three point favorite against the Steelers
Speaker 4: only a couple weeks ago, now, all of a sudden
Speaker 4: our laying points on the road at Pittsburgh, I think
Speaker 4: that's probably too much of a reversal, just based off
Speaker 4: of Cleveland's game against Miami, who's really just a deplorable
Speaker 4: football team. So I think you're gonna get some support
Speaker 4: for the Steelers here, And personally I do like the Steelers,
Speaker 4: but I would not want to be backing Rudolph. I'd
Speaker 4: certainly be more likely to bet Pittsburgh with Hodges under center.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't imagine that it's going to be Rudolph
Speaker 1: coming in. Just you know, again, Hodges didn't do all
Speaker 1: that much. It was really one seventy nine yard catch
Speaker 1: and run by James Washington. But certainly the offs looked
Speaker 1: a little more alive with him under center. And I
Speaker 1: agree with you here. I think the public is probably
Speaker 1: going to back the Browns in this game, you know,
Speaker 1: laying one, and even if that creeps up, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm sure it won't get the three or anything like that,
Speaker 1: but even as it creeps up, but I agree, I
Speaker 1: kind of like the Steelers here playing at home. You know,
Speaker 1: probably you know there's some bad blood here going on,
Speaker 1: but I agree the Steelers sort of. You know, Look,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't think Mike Tomlin is the
Speaker 1: greatest coach in the world, but he certainly is able
Speaker 1: to get his guys up when it looks like they
Speaker 1: should just be completely fading away. And this is exactly
Speaker 1: a type of game where you think they're just going
Speaker 1: to come out and come out flat. But I think
Speaker 1: the defense is going to come out strong. I think
Speaker 1: they'll do enough offensively to be able to move the ball.
Speaker 1: So I do like them getting points certainly, and it's
Speaker 1: probably going to be a game that I'll be in
Speaker 1: on coming in. Let's move on to the Redskins at
Speaker 1: the Panthers. Panthers here currently laying ten in the over
Speaker 1: under at thirty nine and a half. Redskins come off
Speaker 1: that big win against the Lions, but you know, they
Speaker 1: do not look good offensively. They get a special team's
Speaker 1: touchdown and all field goals. Dwayne Haskins really probably is
Speaker 1: not ready to be an NFL quarterback, but I don't
Speaker 1: begrudge the Redskins for throwing him out there at this point.
Speaker 1: Give them the last season.
Speaker 2: Panthers.
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, they show some life offensively, certainly against the Saints,
Speaker 1: but they lose that heartbreaker game after Joey Side misses
Speaker 1: the field goal. They are desperate for a win here
Speaker 1: returning home. How do you feel it's a big number?
Speaker 1: Panthers laying ten with a total low at thirty nine
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 4: I honestly have zero feel on this game, whatsoever sider total,
Speaker 4: It's really difficult to obviously back the Redskins in any capacity,
Speaker 4: and like you mentioned, you know they're coming off a win.
Speaker 4: They got a special team's touchdown in that game. Dwayne
Speaker 4: Haskins is not a pro quarterback right now. He's pretty
Speaker 4: easily far and away the worst quarterback in the league.
Speaker 4: I mean, he misses very routine throws. He just is
Speaker 4: horrible decision making all together. So Washington very similarly to Miami.
Speaker 4: If I'm going to back them, I want it to
Speaker 4: be an obscene amount of points. Now, some might argue
Speaker 4: the Panthers is double digit favorites. I mean, the Panthers
Speaker 4: are twenty seventh in DVOA this year. It's a pretty
Speaker 4: bad number for a team that's laying ten points. They're
Speaker 4: coming off an emotional loss against the Saints. They put
Speaker 4: a lot of effort in that game. Could conceivably be
Speaker 4: a flat spot for them. But I just can't will
Speaker 4: myself to bet Washington in any way because the offense
Speaker 4: is so so bad. It's one of these games that
Speaker 4: Carolina can sleepwalk for an entire half or even three
Speaker 4: quarters and still manage to put together one good quarter
Speaker 4: and cover the spreads. So not a game I'll be
Speaker 4: involved with on side or total. I actually really have
Speaker 4: no idea where the market's going to go with this
Speaker 4: one either, because I just think that there's an extreme
Speaker 4: reluctancy to back Washington, and we saw it this past
Speaker 4: weekend where actually money came in on Jeff driscoll as
Speaker 4: a three and a half point road favorite, brought that
Speaker 4: number up to four at the Redskins, So really no
Speaker 4: one willing to support.
Speaker 3: Washington right now.
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't blame them, but I don't think
Speaker 4: this is a week where people aren't going to jump
Speaker 4: on the bad way.
Speaker 2: No for sure.
Speaker 1: I mean the look aat line was nine and a half.
Speaker 1: It's already moved up a little bit to ten. I
Speaker 1: can't imagine that there's going to be money on the Redskins.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't really know. I kind of want
Speaker 1: to like the Panthers, but ten is just such a
Speaker 1: huge number. Again, you know, I feel like the only
Speaker 1: way I would be worried really coming to the Panthers
Speaker 1: is if they had either one last game or been
Speaker 1: on a winning streak, and this could be a game
Speaker 1: that they just look past. But at this point, they're
Speaker 1: pretty desperate. I think they're gonna come out firing, both
Speaker 1: offensively and defensively. But at ten, that's just a number
Speaker 1: that I really don't feel comfortable with. Certainly not the Redskins,
Speaker 1: but at this point with the Panthers, with the way
Speaker 1: they've sort of been unable to close the door, it's
Speaker 1: a little difficult for me to get behind them. Let's
Speaker 1: move on to the Packers at the Giants. Packers here
Speaker 1: are laying six, which is down from a look aheadline
Speaker 1: of seven and a half. The over under at forty
Speaker 1: six and a half. Packers just embarrassed on Sunday night
Speaker 1: against the forty nine Ers. They lose their tackle Brian Blaga.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a serious injury, but I doubt
Speaker 1: he'll play this week. They fall into a tie. I
Speaker 1: believe that the Vikings, although I think they own the tiebreaker. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Giants are what they are. They put up a
Speaker 1: fight against the Bears, but they're really just not a
Speaker 1: very good football team. Saquon Barkley has not looked completely healthy.
Speaker 1: They're not showing up either offensively or defensively. I believe
Speaker 1: Golden Tate was placed in the concussion protocol, so there
Speaker 1: are a lot of injury concerns going on here. How
Speaker 1: do you feel about the Packers on the road laying
Speaker 1: six with a total of forty six and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the Packers are going to be one
Speaker 4: of those sides that's both a square and a sharp
Speaker 4: side this week. If I'm being honest, I think probably
Speaker 4: up to seven. You'll see support on the Packers at
Speaker 4: minus six and potentially minus six and a half. I mean,
Speaker 4: this is one of those get right spots for them,
Speaker 4: so to speak, embarrassed in prime time and now they're
Speaker 4: going to take out the frustration on the Giants, and
Speaker 4: that's going to be the narrative I think from the public.
Speaker 4: But just in general, from a sharp perspective, or if
Speaker 4: you're just backing the game on numbers, the Giants don't
Speaker 4: really do anything well. Offensively, they're challenged, they turn the
Speaker 4: ball over a little bit too much. Defensively, they've just
Speaker 4: I mean, they've been Swiss cheese. Now, granted, the Bears
Speaker 4: didn't move the ball on them, but the Bears don't
Speaker 4: really move the ball on anyone, so you can kind
Speaker 4: of throw that game out the window. So I think
Speaker 4: you'll see a little bit of support for Green Bay here,
Speaker 4: nothing crazy, and certainly sportsbooks.
Speaker 3: Will be rooting for the Giants. It's really hard to
Speaker 3: keep make a case for New York right now.
Speaker 4: I mean, there are two to nine football team for
Speaker 4: a reason, and I think early when Daniel Jones came
Speaker 4: in earlier in the year, there was some hope, but
Speaker 4: I think that's slowly kind of fallen away with this team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I agree that, you know, I think
Speaker 1: under a touchdown at this point, there's just going to
Speaker 1: be so much money coming in on the Packers, and
Speaker 1: I agree both sides. I like the backers, and you know,
Speaker 1: I don't mind being aligned with the public. And again
Speaker 1: you said that's not necessarily something that you need to
Speaker 1: shy away from, so I agree. Coming off really just
Speaker 1: I mean, they were embarrassed on national television. I think
Speaker 1: they're going to really want to sort of establish themselves
Speaker 1: both offensively and defensively, and I think they come out
Speaker 1: with a big performance. And again the Giants just, you know,
Speaker 1: just seem like they're going through the motions at this point.
Speaker 1: So it's really a difficult team to back, even on
Speaker 1: a good day. Let's move on to the forty nine
Speaker 1: ers at the Ravens. The Ravens are currently laying four
Speaker 1: with a total of forty six. Now, we were recording
Speaker 1: this on Monday before the Monday night game between the
Speaker 1: Ravens and the Rams, so we haven't yet seen the Ravens.
Speaker 1: But the forty nine ers, as I mentioned, incredibly impressive
Speaker 1: against the Packers. They get healthy on offense, George Kittle
Speaker 1: comes back, he looks good. Even though he's playing with
Speaker 1: the apparently chip bone in his ankle.
Speaker 2: The defense continues.
Speaker 1: To be extremely strong. It's a really good game here.
Speaker 1: How do you feel assuming nothing crazy happens tonight, no
Speaker 1: big injuries or anything like that, how do you feel
Speaker 1: here about the Ravens laying four in the total at
Speaker 1: forty six?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I will say to the Ravens Rams game is
Speaker 4: going to affect this line in all likelihood. I mean,
Speaker 4: if the Ravens win an impressive manner, this probably moves
Speaker 4: up to four and a half. If the Rams somehow
Speaker 4: win the game tonight, it probably comes down to three
Speaker 4: and a half. So that's going to have an impact regardless.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's always going to be appealing to be
Speaker 4: taking points with the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3: I think that's a pretty complete football team.
Speaker 4: Offensively, maybe just average, but again, like you said, getting
Speaker 4: the weapons back, especially George Kittle, which is huge for them,
Speaker 4: that's going to be a better offense going forward. The
Speaker 4: defense has been really good this year. But what I
Speaker 4: particularly be looking at is probably the total in this game,
Speaker 4: and I think I'm gonna like the over in this game.
Speaker 4: I do think that the Ravens present some challenges altogether
Speaker 4: for pretty much any defense that they face. Again, I
Speaker 4: could change my opinion depending on how they face the
Speaker 4: Rams tonight, how they show up against the Rams tonight,
Speaker 4: But they're really well coached team. What I like about
Speaker 4: Baltimore is that Harbaugh is very aggressive, So they go
Speaker 4: forward on fourth down, which I think lends itself to overs.
Speaker 4: Either the drives continue or they leave themselves with the
Speaker 4: other team with good field position and the Ravens.
Speaker 3: And bad field position.
Speaker 4: So at forty six, I would expect a little bit
Speaker 4: of money to come in on the over. That's probably
Speaker 4: where I look at this git, but certainly I need
Speaker 4: to reserve my judgment on the side for after I
Speaker 4: see the Ravens play tonight.
Speaker 1: It's a great point on Harbaugh, and there is this
Speaker 1: great story about how he has hired a young, you know,
Speaker 1: twenty five year old analytics guy who basically has transformed
Speaker 1: him into somebody who plays the odds much more, and
Speaker 1: those odds usually mean to be aggressive. So he does that,
Speaker 1: which again, as you mentioned, does kind of lead its
Speaker 1: way more often than not to high schoo and towards
Speaker 1: the over.
Speaker 2: I'm a little I agree.
Speaker 1: With you, generally speaking, with the over at the total,
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for whatsoever. I feel
Speaker 1: like I cannot get a great feel for the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers. It's a great football team, but I feel
Speaker 1: like every time I'm ready to completely back them, they
Speaker 1: lay up a little bit of a dug like against
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, where they still win, but they don't really
Speaker 1: look overly impressive. And the total, yeah, I would lean
Speaker 1: towards the over as of this moment. I think both
Speaker 1: teams are gonna be able to put up points, but
Speaker 1: it's not something I feel overly confident in. Let's move
Speaker 1: on to the Bucks at the Jaguars. Jaguars here are
Speaker 1: laying one. This is down from the look headline of
Speaker 1: laying three and the total at forty nine. The Bucks
Speaker 1: come off the big win against the Falcons, they continue
Speaker 1: to have the same exact script, a strong passing offense,
Speaker 1: a strong rushing defense, and no pass defense. Despite that
Speaker 1: strong game against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Jaguars get totally
Speaker 1: abused by the Titans. Nick Foles has not helped much
Speaker 1: offensively since the switch from Gardner Minshew. So how do
Speaker 1: you feel here about the Jaguars at home laying one?
Speaker 1: To the Bucks with a total of forty nine.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this one's a really, really tough one for me
Speaker 4: because I've actually backed the Bucks a lot this year
Speaker 4: and I've lost money in doing so. But typically I
Speaker 4: do like this Buccaneers team, but it's gonna be really
Speaker 4: hard for me to get behind them at this price.
Speaker 4: But obviously, you mean, just following the Jaguars the last
Speaker 4: couple of weeks, you have to have a really sour
Speaker 4: taste in your mouth the way that they've lost the
Speaker 4: Titans and Colts, and they've been thoroughly beat down in
Speaker 4: the process of those two games. Ultimately, though I do
Speaker 4: think the number is a little bit short. I think
Speaker 4: the Jaguars should be priced probably closer to two and
Speaker 4: a half point favored in this game, and I ultimately think,
Speaker 4: I mean, it's gonna be hard for people to stomach,
Speaker 4: especially for big money, but I ultimately think that some
Speaker 4: money will come in on Jacksonville in this game. I
Speaker 4: think that they'll get one more shot to kind of
Speaker 4: to prove themselves. But at this price range, it's gonna
Speaker 4: be really tough. It is just because of how poor
Speaker 4: they've looked in the last couple of weeks and like
Speaker 4: you mentioned Nick Foles not really offering anything for that offense,
Speaker 4: but then again, the Bucks pass defense might be the
Speaker 4: cure for that. I also see the total at forty nine.
Speaker 4: It's been interesting with the Bucks this year because they've
Speaker 4: had a lot of high totals that have been bet down.
Speaker 4: I'm talking about totals of around fifty two and a
Speaker 4: half to fifty four that have come down. And conversely,
Speaker 4: when they've had lower totals and games, they tend to
Speaker 4: be bet up. So I think this will probably be
Speaker 4: bet up. Just thinking about this in my head, I
Speaker 4: do see this as a game where there's going to
Speaker 4: be a lot of points. So I'd be looking at
Speaker 4: Jags minus one and over forty nine in this game.
Speaker 2: And I mean, the thing is the Bucks.
Speaker 1: You know, the number gets met up, but I mean
Speaker 1: they hit the over almost every week, don't they. I Mean,
Speaker 1: I don't have the number in front of me, but
Speaker 1: I think they've been hitting the overs even when they're
Speaker 1: ending up high.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I kind of lean towards the Jaguars here. I agree
Speaker 1: at three, you know, laying one, I think the Daguars
Speaker 1: are going to come out of ahead here. I've also
Speaker 1: backed the Bucks a number of times. I think that
Speaker 1: they've kind of been under sold by the numbers that
Speaker 1: are being out there. But in the end, it's so
Speaker 1: difficult to back Winston because you know at some point
Speaker 1: he's going to have the backbreaking turnover. Overall, I kind
Speaker 1: of think this is going to be one of the
Speaker 1: games where the Jaguars at home look to take care
Speaker 1: of business. I do think they win. I do like
Speaker 1: them laying one at this point and then total. I
Speaker 1: don't have a great feel for it. I need to
Speaker 1: get into it a little bit more, but it's difficult
Speaker 1: to go wrong going over with the Bucks. Generally speaking,
Speaker 1: Before we finish up with our last few games, I
Speaker 1: want to mind everyone about our giveaway. It's a signed
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Speaker 1: to the Rams at the Cardinals. Rams are laying three
Speaker 1: and a half with the over under at forty seven.
Speaker 1: As we mentioned, we have not yet seen the Monday
Speaker 1: night game between the Rams and the Ravens, so we
Speaker 1: don't know exactly what they're going to look like. So
Speaker 1: this may affect how you view the market. But the
Speaker 1: Cardinals are coming off of by Kyler Murray continues to
Speaker 1: be able to put up points, but their defense really
Speaker 1: nothing to write home about. They don't get much pressure
Speaker 1: on the quarterback and that's kind of the key to
Speaker 1: getting in Jared Goff's head. So how do you feel
Speaker 1: here again without seeing tonight's game? Rams laying three and
Speaker 1: a half on the road, the total at forty seven.
Speaker 4: It seems before tonight's game, it seems like the right
Speaker 4: number to me. Three and a half at least the
Speaker 4: total I could potentially see coming down a little bit,
Speaker 4: just because of the Rams track record away from home
Speaker 4: for the most part and Golf being a pretty bad
Speaker 4: quarterback away from home. But ultimately, I look at the
Speaker 4: Rams and the Cardinals and it's two teams that I'm
Speaker 4: pretty reluctant to back for the most part, the Rams
Speaker 4: purely due to the inconsistency on offense and just Jared
Speaker 4: Goff not being able to successfully move the ball on
Speaker 4: a regular occasion, and the Cardinals to me seem like
Speaker 4: they're somewhat outperforming their metrics for the most part. I
Speaker 4: still don't know what to make of Kyler Murray. Some
Speaker 4: games he looks really good, some games he doesn't. But ultimately,
Speaker 4: what it comes back to for both these teams is
Speaker 4: that I find them to be extremely inconsistent, and those
Speaker 4: are not teams that I like to get involved on
Speaker 4: for the most part. So three and a half seems
Speaker 4: like the right number to me right now. That's where
Speaker 4: I would have opened it myself. Again, like you mentioned,
Speaker 4: the Rams Ravens game will have an impact on where
Speaker 4: this number goes, but ultimately I doubt I'm going to
Speaker 4: have a bet on this one in Week thirteen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think the spread looks about right
Speaker 1: to me as well. I am interested in watching tonight
Speaker 1: because for me, I kind of like the under. It
Speaker 1: just look Jared Goff has not looked anything like the
Speaker 1: quarterback that we saw in the beginning of last year
Speaker 1: for essentially a full NFL season at this point. And
Speaker 1: you know, of course the Cardinals don't have a great
Speaker 1: defense or anything like that, but I really don't think
Speaker 1: it matters at this point. So what I really want
Speaker 1: to see is whether or not they come out. It's
Speaker 1: a tough defense with the Ravens tonight, but I want
Speaker 1: to see if they come out with any sort of
Speaker 1: wrinkles that they can do. They're going to find only
Speaker 1: have all three of the receivers. That sounds like if
Speaker 1: Robert Woods plays and Brandon Cooks looks to be back
Speaker 1: from the concussion. But it's really about their offensive line,
Speaker 1: which is just a bunch of no names at this
Speaker 1: point because they've been so decimated there. And with the
Speaker 1: Cardinals look, I like Murray as a player, but you know,
Speaker 1: I feel like they script the beginning for him. He
Speaker 1: looks good, and after that he's just kind of you know,
Speaker 1: running around and trying to figure it out, and he's
Speaker 1: so talented that he's often able to. But I really
Speaker 1: like the Rams defense since they've added Jalen Ramsey. So
Speaker 1: for me, with the total at forty seven, I kind
Speaker 1: of lean towards the under by I admit that I
Speaker 1: want to see what the Rams look like off of
Speaker 1: bye tonight against a tough defense in the Raid in
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Let's move on here to the Raiders at
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Chiefs here are now laying nine and a half.
Speaker 1: Look headline was ten, so it's dound half a point.
Speaker 1: The over under is fifty one and a half and
Speaker 1: the total was fifty four and a half with the lookhadline,
Speaker 1: so it's certainly come down from there. Just as we
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, terrible loss here for the Raiders against the Jets,
Speaker 1: they just did not show up. They generally struggle at
Speaker 1: East Derek Carr doesn't usually play all that well in
Speaker 1: the cold. They are also down now Hunter renfro who
Speaker 1: injured his ribs and I believe it's going to miss
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. Now the Chiefs are coming
Speaker 1: off a bye, they're home, They're probably going to be
Speaker 1: pretty healthy overall. So it's a large number. But how
Speaker 1: do you feel here in indivisional game Chiefs in Arrowhead
Speaker 1: laying nine and a half with the total at fifty
Speaker 1: one and a half, I think.
Speaker 4: You'll probably see a little bit of money come in
Speaker 4: on Oakland. I don't think there's enough I mean of
Speaker 4: a discrepancy between these two teams. I still think the
Speaker 4: Raiders are an above average team in the NFL. And
Speaker 4: I know that they got blown out last week and
Speaker 4: they looked really bad in the process, and they're kind
Speaker 4: of coming down to earth. But I still think they're
Speaker 4: above average team. So certainly the points are tempting here. Obviously,
Speaker 4: you'd much prefer a plus ten and a plus nine
Speaker 4: and a half, with I mean ten being I don't
Speaker 4: want to say a true key number, but I mean
Speaker 4: it's a valuable number for the most part. The total
Speaker 4: is very interesting to me because, like you mentioned, look
Speaker 4: ahead at fifty four and a half, I actually think
Speaker 4: this number opened at fifty four and a half and
Speaker 4: has been bet down. I think that's probably gone a
Speaker 4: little bit too far. If I'm being honest, I think
Speaker 4: you'd see some buy back up to round the fifty
Speaker 4: two to fifty two and a half range, especially with
Speaker 4: the Chiefs coming off of bye. I mean, I'm going
Speaker 4: to be really surprised if the Chiefs don't score thirty
Speaker 4: in this game, and I think the Raiders offense can
Speaker 4: keep up. So personally, I think this total has been
Speaker 4: bet down too much. If I'm looking at the game
Speaker 4: from a side perspective, I'd somewhat mean to the Raiders,
Speaker 4: but I think I'd prefer the over at fifty one
Speaker 4: right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you that the over is what
Speaker 1: stands out to me. I feel like, you know, there's
Speaker 1: too many you know, negative implications being drawn from you know,
Speaker 1: the way the Chiefs didn't really you know, put up
Speaker 1: a dominant offensive performance in Mexico City against the Charters.
Speaker 1: But of course, not only did you have the thin air,
Speaker 1: which certainly affects things, but you didn't have Tyreek Hill
Speaker 1: in that game. And he reportedly is recovering from his
Speaker 1: hamstring injury, so he's playing well. So if everyone is
Speaker 1: there at this point, I really think that he is
Speaker 1: going to be you know, the team as a whole
Speaker 1: is going to put up a big number offensively. I
Speaker 1: agree with you that thirty points seems like it's going
Speaker 1: to be something that they can easily get to.
Speaker 2: So I agree with you with.
Speaker 1: The total coming down from fifty four and a half
Speaker 1: to fifty one and a half. I agree that I
Speaker 1: like the over Let's move on to the Chargers at
Speaker 1: the Broncos. Chargers here laying two and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: this was a look head line of a pickum, so
Speaker 1: it's certainly moved in favor of the charters. The total
Speaker 1: at thirty eight and a half. The Broncos surprise the
Speaker 1: Chargers by beating them in Los Angeles last time, but
Speaker 1: Brandon Allen just eighty two yards passing against the Bills
Speaker 1: on Sunday. It's not a strong offense. The defense still
Speaker 1: generally hangs in there, but they're not quite as dominant
Speaker 1: as they have been in past years. Meanwhile, the Chargers
Speaker 1: are charging. If Philip Rivers could run a two minute drill,
Speaker 1: they'd probably be a five hundred team by now. But
Speaker 1: you know they've got They've been injured on both sides
Speaker 1: of the ball. The offense just kind of looks out
Speaker 1: of sync. I don't know whether or not Rivers is
Speaker 1: just reaching that point in his career. He's thirty seven
Speaker 1: years old, where it's starting to go downhill. So how
Speaker 1: do you feel here about the Chargers laying two and
Speaker 1: a half in Denver with the total low total of
Speaker 1: thirty eight and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this one's a really tough one for me because
Speaker 4: if you had asked me this a week ago, I
Speaker 4: would have loved the Broncos at plus two and a half.
Speaker 4: But obviously what you saw out to Brandon Allen this
Speaker 4: week was just a deplorable performance.
Speaker 3: And I mean he just doesn't have it. I mean,
Speaker 3: he's not an.
Speaker 4: NFL quarterback, He's not an NFL calendar quarterback in a
Speaker 4: league that is very quarterback driven. That's obviously a challenge.
Speaker 4: But is there enough separating the Broncos, even with Brandon
Speaker 4: Allen at quarterback, to be two and a half point
Speaker 4: underdogs at home to the Chargers. I mean, would they
Speaker 4: be catching more than a touchdown if they were on
Speaker 4: the road here?
Speaker 3: I doubt it, especially when you.
Speaker 4: Consider that they just closed as a three and a
Speaker 4: half point underdog at Buffalo a week ago. So it's
Speaker 4: tough because you don't want to put too much stock
Speaker 4: into one week, but it's really hard. Ultimately, I think
Speaker 4: you might see some more Chargers money bring this up
Speaker 4: to three before some Sharps get bring this number back
Speaker 4: down to two and a half. I don't see it
Speaker 4: moving a whole lot, but if it does move a
Speaker 4: whole lot, it's probably going to be to the Broncos,
Speaker 4: who have been a pretty you know, sharps have been
Speaker 4: willing to back them this year because they've had so
Speaker 4: many close losses. I think there was four games going
Speaker 4: into last week where they've lost by a combined ten points,
Speaker 4: so easily could be a team that's above five hundred
Speaker 4: right now. Instead they're three to eight. When you look
Speaker 4: at DVOA, there's still ahead of the Chargers this year,
Speaker 4: So ultimately, I think you'd be more likely to see
Speaker 4: people back back the Broncos than not, and then depending
Speaker 4: on the wind. I know thirty eight and a half
Speaker 4: is a low total, but based on what we've seen
Speaker 4: under these two offenses recently, we'll probably see some support
Speaker 4: for the under in this game as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a low one, but I agree that if
Speaker 1: there's going to be support one way or another, I
Speaker 1: think more money is going to come in on the under.
Speaker 1: This is not a game that I have a great
Speaker 1: feel for man, I mean, but you know, both teams look.
Speaker 2: I like the.
Speaker 1: Broncos actually this week against Buffalo, I for pretty much
Speaker 1: all the reasons that you say. They're certainly still competing
Speaker 1: even though they're way out of playoff contention, But in
Speaker 1: the end, they just never seem to be able to
Speaker 1: close the door. Now, they weren't close in Buffalo this week.
Speaker 1: But yeah, like you said, they easily could have been
Speaker 1: a five hundred team had some things broken differently. But
Speaker 1: the charters really again, you know, it's just it's not
Speaker 1: happening right now for them, and when they have a
Speaker 1: chance to put it away, they're not able to do it.
Speaker 1: So it's not a game that I feel real good about.
Speaker 1: If anything, I agree despite the total, I kind of
Speaker 1: like the under at thirty and a half. Let's move
Speaker 1: on to the Pats. At the Texans. Patriots here are
Speaker 1: laying three and the over under at forty four and
Speaker 1: a half. The Patriots continue to win despite looking lackluster offensively.
Speaker 1: They're also pretty beat up. They were down Mohammed Sanu
Speaker 1: and Philip dore Set this past week. I don't know
Speaker 1: if they're going to play necessarily. I haven't seen the
Speaker 1: practice sports yet their defense though, look, it remains outstanding.
Speaker 1: You know, it's not quite as dominant as it looks
Speaker 1: in that long run against subpar teams early in the season,
Speaker 1: but they certainly continue to put up quality, quality efforts. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Texans, they win against the Colts in the game
Speaker 1: that was essentially must win on Thursday, but they are
Speaker 1: far from impressive on either side of the ball.
Speaker 2: You can throw on them pretty easily.
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson, his play is kind of sporadic, as he's
Speaker 1: running for his life often. So how do you feel
Speaker 1: here about the Pats laying three and the over under
Speaker 1: a forty four and a half.
Speaker 4: It's a tough one because this one feels a lot
Speaker 4: like Patriots Ravens from a few weeks ago in terms
Speaker 4: of the way that it's set up. The Texans have
Speaker 4: a little bit of extra rest coming into this game.
Speaker 4: The only difference between the Patriots Ravens and Patriots Texans
Speaker 4: is that the Ravens actually have a very good coach
Speaker 4: and the Texans don't. And that's what I really struggle
Speaker 4: with in this game. It's why I struggle to back
Speaker 4: Dallas even though they cover the spread against New England.
Speaker 4: This week is because this is Bill Belichick against Bill
Speaker 4: O'Brien and that's a huge coach coaching mismatch. So I
Speaker 4: think you're going to see this bounce around between three
Speaker 4: and three and a half all week long. I think
Speaker 4: you'll see sharp support on both sides of this game.
Speaker 3: I really do.
Speaker 4: But it's really tough to bet against the Patriots when
Speaker 4: you don't like the opposing coach when you're not getting
Speaker 4: a big number. Now, granted, they don't look like the
Speaker 4: Patriots of the year's pass especially offensively, So this is
Speaker 4: what I think you're going to see some market support
Speaker 4: on the under here, and that's been pretty consistent with
Speaker 4: the Patriots over the last four to six weeks here.
Speaker 4: And I know the total will be forty five be
Speaker 4: considered low for the Texans, who typically have a pretty
Speaker 4: good offense, but even they've been struggling offensively lately, struggled
Speaker 4: to put away the Colts last week as well, So
Speaker 4: I think you're going to see this total come down
Speaker 4: potentially to forty four, which is a key number in
Speaker 4: NFL totals. And if I was looking to back this game,
Speaker 4: that's what I would like. Under forty five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you mentioned that the total is going
Speaker 1: to be bouncing back and forth. Look the if you
Speaker 1: look at betting Bros dot Com and you have you know,
Speaker 1: maybe eight or nine sports book listed there, you know,
Speaker 1: it's like five of them are at minus three and
Speaker 1: five of them are at minus three and a half,
Speaker 1: So it is probably going to be bouncing around there.
Speaker 1: I do expect the Patriots to win this game, if
Speaker 1: for no other reason then exactly what you said. It's
Speaker 1: a coaching mismatch for sure. And realistically, if the Patriots
Speaker 1: get healthy and they get a little bit more in
Speaker 1: the receiver, I do think you know, Brady does not
Speaker 1: looked good. The team as a whole does not look good.
Speaker 2: You know, the.
Speaker 1: Weather in New England was terrible yesterday against the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: It's really tough to take anything from that. I think
Speaker 1: they are going to be able to come up with
Speaker 1: some wrinkles. And again the Texans, you know, it's not
Speaker 1: like JJ Watt was doing that much this season, but
Speaker 1: certainly defensively you can really exploit them.
Speaker 2: So I do expect the Pats to be able to
Speaker 2: at least win by three.
Speaker 1: If it gets above the key number, I'm gonna get
Speaker 1: a little nervous about it, but overall I'd lean towards
Speaker 1: the Patriots on the spread. Let's move on to the
Speaker 1: final game, the Monday night game, the Vikings at the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: Currently the Seahawks laying two and a half and the
Speaker 1: total at forty nine's big game here. The Seahawks continue
Speaker 1: to basically outperform all models and the talent they have
Speaker 1: on their team, and they just pretty much win each
Speaker 1: and every week. They win a sloppy game against the
Speaker 1: Eagles and bad weather even though they were down to
Speaker 1: gadevan Clowney, they win nonetheless. Meanwhile, the Vikings are impressive
Speaker 1: of late. They have that big comeback win against the Broncos.
Speaker 1: They should get Adam Thielen back. The defense is not
Speaker 1: anything to write home about, particularly the pass defense at
Speaker 1: this point. But how do you feel here the Vikings
Speaker 1: at the Seahawks on Monday Night Seahawks laying two and
Speaker 1: a half with the pretty high total as has often
Speaker 1: been the case with Seahawks here at forty nine.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is again just a scenario where
Speaker 4: depending on the number, you'll have support on either side.
Speaker 4: So at two and a half you probably see the
Speaker 4: Seahawks get bought up a bit or people snatch those
Speaker 4: two and a half, even if it's a little bit
Speaker 4: more big on those I think three. Certainly you'll see
Speaker 4: people want to back the Vikings, and it's pretty easy
Speaker 4: to make a case for both of these teams here. Obviously,
Speaker 4: if you're making a case for a Seahawks you would
Speaker 4: allude to Kirk cousins historical performance against good teams. I'm
Speaker 4: not sure how much stock I put into that, because
Speaker 4: I think it's a little bit overblown. But obviously if
Speaker 4: you're looking at the Vikings, you can point to a
Speaker 4: lot of advanced metrics that show that the Seahawks are
Speaker 4: probably a little bit overrated as well. Personally, I think
Speaker 4: this total is low at forty nine. I do think
Speaker 4: the Vikings can move the ball on the Seahawks defense.
Speaker 4: I think the Seahawks having such a good defensive performance
Speaker 4: against the Eagles has really kind of misled people a
Speaker 4: little bit because Carson Wentz missed a ton of throws
Speaker 4: in that game looked really, really horrible. The Seahawks still
Speaker 4: don't have much of a pass rush. We'll see the
Speaker 4: status of Jadavian Clowney, but if he's out, that's even
Speaker 4: that's music to Kirk Cousins ears because I just don't
Speaker 4: think the Seahawks are a great defense overall. So personally,
Speaker 4: I think this total is going to get bet up.
Speaker 4: I think by game time you could see it in
Speaker 4: the fifties. And I see both these teams scoring points.
Speaker 4: It's one of those where I've you know, from a
Speaker 4: numbers perspective, I do like the over, but also just
Speaker 4: thinking about it subjectively, I think there's going to be
Speaker 4: plenty of points in this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. I don't like the spread. I
Speaker 1: just you know, I think the Vikings are a better team.
Speaker 1: But you know, Wilson really is playing at an MVP
Speaker 1: level right now. It's not you know, on Monday night
Speaker 1: in that building. It's not really a case where I'd
Speaker 1: want to bet against the Seahawks at this point. But
Speaker 1: the total one hundred percent agree. Both these teams are
Speaker 1: you know, they have the reputation of having these great defenses,
Speaker 1: but in the end, they're really both exploitable and I
Speaker 1: think both offenses.
Speaker 2: Look.
Speaker 1: I think since the Vikings have kind of opened it
Speaker 1: up a bit offensively here, and you know they have
Speaker 1: the dominant run game with Dalvin Cook, but since they've
Speaker 1: opened it up, especially with Adam Thielen coming back, I
Speaker 1: think they're really going to be able to put up
Speaker 1: a lot of points here. And the Seahawks can as well.
Speaker 1: You know, they have two solid running backs, and again
Speaker 1: Wilson is just basically able to do whatever he wants.
Speaker 1: So I agree with you completely. If you like the total,
Speaker 1: which I do, which sounds like Rob does, and I
Speaker 1: think getting in on it now before it starts creeping
Speaker 1: up past fifty is probably a good idea. Well, that's
Speaker 1: going to do it for today's show. Rob, It was
Speaker 1: really great having you on. I thought you brought a
Speaker 1: lot of exceptional insight into the game, and you use
Speaker 1: the word deplorable twice, which I think is really an
Speaker 1: underused word in our vernacular. So and I think they
Speaker 1: were both apped as one of them was to describe
Speaker 1: Brandon Allen, so absolutely right on. Remind everybody where they
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your work.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just follow me on Twitter at rob Azzola.
Speaker 4: I mean, if you have betting related questions, my direct
Speaker 4: messages or dms are open on Twitter, so you know
Speaker 4: I try to answer.
Speaker 3: As many of those as possible. So yeah, that's it.
Speaker 4: I mean, I have nothing to promote aside from my
Speaker 4: Twitter account, but certainly I love talking sports in general,
Speaker 4: and I love connecting with other people who talk sports.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you see Rob's Twitter account, you'll see him
Speaker 1: from when he was on periscopy, a lot of great insights,
Speaker 1: so he's a great follow.
Speaker 3: Rob.
Speaker 2: Really appreciate you coming on. I hope we can do
Speaker 2: it again sometime.
Speaker 3: Sounds good. Thanks for having me.
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Speaker 1: We will be back later this week, earlier than usual
Speaker 1: because of Thanksgiving. Given some our best bets for week thirteen,
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you them.