WEBVTT - NFL Week 13 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 30) 0:00:10.520 --> 0:00:13.480 Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:16.599 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harrison. 0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:18.799 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:21.560 It is time for our early look at next week's lines, 0:00:21.600 --> 0:00:24.079 and with me to break it all down is Rob Pizzola, 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:25.279 a pro sports better. 0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:26.200 Rob. How's it going, man? 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:27.520 It's going well. 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.560 Interesting time of year now, obviously with everything getting into 0:00:31.640 --> 0:00:33.520 full swing. So this is one of my favorite times 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:34.800 a year as a sports better. 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:35.720 Yeah, me too. 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:38.080 This is a really good time overall. And you know, 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:40.560 I'm a big fan of Thanksgiving. I feel like, given 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:44.400 my profession, my family has become pretty accustomed to me 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:47.280 being glued to the TV throughout Thanksgiving, so it's gonna 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:49.080 be pretty fun. But of course, you know, we've got 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:51.640 the three Thursday games here, a rarity for the season, 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:53.440 so we've got a lot to look into now. Rob 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:54.960 and I are going to go through each game on 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:57.880 the week thirteenth slate, and we'll be using the consensus 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:00.760 odds over at bettingpros dot com. Those are the aggregate 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:03.800 odds that you're gonna find from a bunch of different sportsbooks. Now, 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:05.800 the Lions are gonna move as bets come in. Odds 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:08.559 makers are going to adjust, so pay close attention in case, 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:11.840 like us, you particularly like or do not like any 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:14.080 given line. All right, rob let's dive in here with 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:16.319 the Thanksgiving games, and we'll start, as always with the 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.600 Lions game, the first game of the week, the Bears 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:21.200 visiting the Lions. The current odds listed on our consensus 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:24.399 odds are the Bears laying two and the over under 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:27.520 here at thirty nine. Now that has dropped a bit 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:29.560 from the look aheadline of forty one. 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:31.640 It's hard to back the Bears. 0:01:31.360 --> 0:01:33.920 Lately, but they do beat the Giants. Mitchell Trubisky looks 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:37.280 quasi competent. The defense still looks strong, though not quite 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:39.679 as dominant as they did last year. Meanwhile, the Lions 0:01:39.680 --> 0:01:42.399 are still rolling with Jeff Driscoll. They lose to the 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:45.360 hapless Redskins. They may have lost Snax Harrison in this game. 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:47.120 I'm not sure of the extent of the injury. But 0:01:47.440 --> 0:01:49.360 it's Thanksgiving, their home. So how do you feel about 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:51.840 the Bears laying two and the over under at thirty nine? 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:53.920 So definitely the Bears are going to get a lot 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:56.480 of Thanksgiving Day action here, I think, both by the 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.520 general public and by professionals, and mainly that's because of 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:03.160 the Lions injury report. So Jeff Driscoll limited in practice 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.160 today because of a hamstring injury. There's a very realistic 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:08.040 possibility that they're going to have to go to the 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:10.800 third string quarterback, who is someone I've never heard of 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:12.680 in my life. I believe his name is David Brow 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:15.160 or something along. I don't even remember his name, to 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:17.920 be completely honest with you. Was a backup at college, 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:20.280 was the fourth stringer to start the season for the 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:23.359 Cleveland Browns. So because of that, I just don't see 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.919 much anyone willing to really back the lines in this situation. 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:29.359 I think the number will continue to climb, so get 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:31.720 in early on the Bears. And it's not just the 0:02:31.800 --> 0:02:33.800 quarterback position for the Lions. If you look at the 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:36.400 early injury report, it is a complete disaster for them 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:39.239 with a number of players either limited in practice today 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:42.160 or not practicing whatsoever. So definitely the Bear is going 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:44.280 to get a ton of action. I could see this 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:46.239 even going above three up to three and a half. 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:48.640 It's very very rare to see something move that much, 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:51.600 and through the key number of three, especially when they 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:54.800 were down around minus one earlier today. But certainly, I 0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:58.520 think there's just going to be a lack of resistance 0:02:58.560 --> 0:02:59.960 for all the Bears money that's coming in. 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.520 Do you think that any because again I saw the 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:05.320 limited practice reports for most of them, and again Dressco 0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:09.440 Driscoll practiced, but he was limited with a hamstring injury. 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:10.200 I mean, do you. 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:12.360 Think though that they're just kind of taking it easy 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:13.919 here because I didn't feel like they came out of 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:16.560 that game with being like, oh man, they're totally banged up. 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:17.840 I don't know how they're going to be able to 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:20.800 turn around. I didn't even know that Driscoll was injured 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.160 until I saw the practice report at all. Do you 0:03:23.200 --> 0:03:25.760 think that this is something where it could legitimately put 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:29.200 their playing time in jeopardy? So, I mean, I know 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:31.200 you're obviously not an inside or anything like that, but 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:33.040 if you do like the Bears, this is something then 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:35.520 that you would take into consideration because you do think 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:38.200 there's a legitimate chance, essentially based on the practice reports, 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:40.240 that they could be significantly limited. 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:43.080 Yeah, I think at this point. I mean, it's always 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:45.320 a judgment call in the NFL, right, I mean when 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:48.440 you're betting earlier. Looking at the early board, you're not 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:50.440 going to get the true scope of things. And sometimes 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:52.120 things are going to work in your favor, and sometimes 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:54.680 things are going to work against you. You take the Eagles, 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:57.920 for example, last week, who were expected to have potentially 0:03:58.000 --> 0:04:00.880 Jordan Howard back and al shonn Jeffery back in the lineup, 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:03.040 and then Sunday morning comes and they're not playing, and 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:06.160 that significantly effects the handicap of the game altogether. So 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.240 you have to use reason. But typically when players are 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:12.800 limited in practice, especially on a short week, it doesn't 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:15.600 bode well. And some of these guys not practicing altogether 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:18.200 is a complete problem for them. Looks like they're gonna 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:21.120 have cluster injuries in the secondary. I think the Detroit 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:23.719 Lions are a complete mess this week. And what makes 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:26.520 it even more difficult is, obviously, like I said, preparing 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:28.640 with only three days, trying to come up with a 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:31.960 game plan for a quarterback who's never expected to see 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:35.440 time whatsoever against a very good defense. I'm just struggling 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:37.799 to see how the Lions compete in this game unless 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:39.839 the Bears handed to them, and the Bears are fully 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.560 capable of doing that. I mean, they run a horrible offense, 0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:45.600 and they can definitely throw away the game with some turnovers. 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:49.479 But certainly I just see, like I said, there's gonna 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:51.799 be there's probably gonna be no resistance at this number 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.440 and just money pouring in on the Bears to the 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:56.160 point where the oddsmakers are going to have to really 0:04:56.240 --> 0:04:57.120 raise this number up. 0:04:57.440 --> 0:04:57.640 Yeah. 0:04:57.760 --> 0:05:00.520 No, look, I love the Bears, Certainly, the d anything 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:03.560 less than the key number of three, it's just really 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:07.320 difficult to see a scenario again unless the Bear is 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:09.400 essentially handed to him, and we know Mitchell Trubisky is 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:11.600 more than capable of doing that. But unless they really 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:14.000 handed to him, it's a little difficult to see the Lions. 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:14.320 Coming in on top. 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:16.080 So anything under the key number, I agree, if you 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:18.040 like it right now, it's probably a good idea to 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:20.159 get in. Let's move on to the Bills at the Cowboys. 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:23.159 Cowboys here laying seven and the over under at forty 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:24.800 four and a half. Look, headline was seven and a half, 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:26.240 so it has ticked down a little bit to the 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:28.520 key number of seven, but not significantly. The Bills get 0:05:28.520 --> 0:05:30.680 back on track here at home against the Broncos with 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:34.120 a strong showing particularly defensively. But now they go on 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:36.560 the road to take on what is essentially a desperate 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:39.400 Cowboys team that lost an ugly game against the Pats 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:42.839 where they really couldn't do much offensively, not entirely their fault, 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:44.680 of course, the Pats are a great defense, and the 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:47.159 weather was abysmal. But how do you feel here the 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:49.480 Cowboys laying seven at home on Thanksgiving with the over 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:50.880 under forty four and a half. 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:53.320 I think the likely you'll get market support on the 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:55.880 Cowboys and probably on the over in this game as well. 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.279 The Bills are eight and three by record, but a 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:00.080 lot of the advanced metrics are not going to be 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:03.839 appealing for them, especially if those who are handicapping using DVOA. 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:07.400 Where the Bills are twenty fifth this year the Cowboys fourth. Now, 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:09.279 I don't know if that money's gonna come right away. 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:11.599 I think potentially, if you're a shark better you'd much 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.360 rather get the Cowboys at six and a half than seven. 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:18.080 But ultimately I just see this closing at seven or higher. 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:20.279 I don't think there's gonna be a ton of sharp 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:22.839 support on the Bills in terms of the total Dallas' 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:23.960 offense is really good. 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:25.560 Their defense is. 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:28.840 Not and forty four and a half right now as 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:31.599 the consensus total in this game. I would probably see 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:33.400 some support coming in on the over in this game, 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:35.480 even up to forty five forty five and a half, 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:38.960 definitely not down below forty four, which is a key 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:41.359 number in the NFL. So I think that that's the 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:43.200 way it's gonna head. I'm not sure if I'm going 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:47.200 to be involved in this game altogether, but I do 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:49.520 think I expect that the sharp money will be on 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:50.520 the Cowboys in the over. 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:50.760 Here. 0:06:51.120 --> 0:06:54.080 Yeah, I don't have a strong feel necessarily for the line. 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:56.359 I mean, I think at seven is about right. I 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:58.880 agree with you though that the total. You know, I 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:01.040 feel like the over is gonna get the majority of 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:03.039 the bets. I think I'll probably be in on that 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:04.720 as well. I mean, I feel like in the end, 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:08.720 given unless Mari Cooper is significantly limited, Obviously he's been 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:11.000 battling that knee injury, and he was on the sidelines 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:13.559 quite a bit during that game against the Patriots, despite 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:14.920 the fact that it was closed. So if he is 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:18.120 hampered and it's a Thursday game, then that does change things. 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:20.920 But assuming that he's a full go, and he practices 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:22.640 in full this week and he's ready to go. I 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:24.200 do think that this is going to be a little 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:26.080 bit of a get right game, even though the Bills 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:28.800 have a very strong defense. Of course, they're vulnerable against 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:30.680 the run, so you'll see a lot of Ezekiel Elliott 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:32.960 that could you lean towards the under considering they want to. 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:33.440 Run the ball. 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:35.400 But I feel like this is a little bit going 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:37.560 to be a get right game here. But the Cowboys 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:39.840 offense and the Bills can score. As much as Josh Allen, 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:42.840 you know, isn't the most accurate quarterback in the league, 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:45.720 he's certainly able to move the ball pretty effectively both 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:48.760 on the ground, and John Brown is having a great season, 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:50.360 so I do think that there will be points score. 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:53.040 So I agree that money and sharp betters will probably 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:55.000 hit the over. Let's move on to these Saints at 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:57.960 the Falcons the night game on Thanksgiving, Saint Sierra laying 0:07:57.960 --> 0:07:59.600 six and a half with the over under at fifty 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:02.800 two weeks ago. Look, the Falcons really manhandled the Saints 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:06.680 in New Orleans, but the Saints here are obviously heavily favored. 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:08.680 They're coming off that big win against the Panthers with 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:11.080 the last second field go. Meanwhile, the Falcons, who had 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:14.280 looked outstanding the past two weeks, particularly their defense, come 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:16.520 back down to earth against the Bucks. The offense looks 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:19.160 completely out of sync. Julio Jones gets banged up. He's 0:08:19.200 --> 0:08:22.200 listed as it did not practice today. Again, I take 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:23.720 it a little bit with a grain of salt on 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:26.280 these Monday practices on a short week, because I think 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.120 they're just being careful. But he is listed as it 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:29.960 did not practice, and again he was in and out 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:31.960 of that game with the shoulder injury. So how do 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:34.000 you feel here? Saints on the road laying six and 0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:35.559 a half with an over under of fifty. 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:38.120 I'm not high on the Falcons this year. I've been 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:40.360 betting against them quite a bit. I'm also not high 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:43.280 on the Saints. But really, I think the Falcons a 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:45.000 lot of the yardage that they've put up this year 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:47.240 has been in garbage time, and that's kind of inflated 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:49.640 their yardage numbers and their yards for play numbers when 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:52.120 they've been trailing for a lot of the season. With 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:55.640 that said, I do expect that eventually we're going to 0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:59.040 see some market support on Atlanta just because they played 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.080 the Saints so tough couple of weeks ago. But ultimately 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:04.120 I think that move is gonna come late, because when 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:05.840 you think about this, this is the third game on 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:09.679 Thanksgiving Day slate. The reality is the public betters are 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:11.760 gonna see New Orleans minus six and a half. They're 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:13.960 gonna think that that's free money, and there's just gonna 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:14.839 be a ton of money on. 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:15.720 The Saints regardless. 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:17.880 Either it's the chase game of the day where people 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:19.920 have lost earlier on in the first couple of games 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:21.800 and now they're kind of doubling up on the Saints, 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:23.959 or it's the opposite, where they've won earlier in the 0:09:24.000 --> 0:09:26.160 day and they feel comfortable to put their bets on 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:28.400 the Saints. So there's gonna be large handle on this game. 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.720 If you're a sharp better, why bet the Falcons early 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:33.400 now knowing that there's gonna be a ton of money 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:33.839 coming in. 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:34.839 On the Saints regardless. 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:37.720 So I think ultimately, closer to game time, you'll see 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:40.720 some money come in on the Falcons. Potentially we might 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:42.959 see this number get up to seven seven and a 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:46.480 half before you see some resistance there. I don't think 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:48.839 I will be involved. I mean seven and a half. 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:53.320 I'd certainly consider the Falcons at home, especially, like I said, 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:54.920 with the way that they played the Saints tough a 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:55.680 couple of weeks ago. 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:57.240 That defense really showed up to. 0:09:57.160 --> 0:10:00.480 Play in that game. But aside from that, it's not 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:03.439 a game that I love. Definitely, sports books will be 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:05.760 cheering for the Falcons outright win because the Saints will 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:08.640 probably be involved on every single teaser imaginable this weekend 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:12.240 as well, So huge liability probably building for books on 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:12.720 the Saints. 0:10:12.960 --> 0:10:13.920 Yeah, how do you feel? 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:16.200 How do you think about that when books are I mean, 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:17.840 you know what's going to happen on this game, right, 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:20.520 Despite the fact that the Falcons beat up on the 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:23.560 Saints two weeks ago, the public this just screams when 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:26.120 you're under a touchdown, It screams the public to back 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:28.160 the Saints. Do you consider that at all when you're 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:31.000 thinking about a line and saying like it really seems 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:33.640 like the books are sort of inviting the public to 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:35.240 go here and they're probably going to be on the 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:38.480 hook for a Falcons. You know, if the Falcons fail 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:40.560 to cover, I mean, does that factor into your equation 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:42.520 as to who you're going to back? Each and every 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:44.280 week or does that something that you have your model 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:45.000 and that's all there is. 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:47.000 I don't factor in public bets. 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:49.320 I think there's a little bit of a misperception with 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:52.280 the whole fade the public thing, And I mean people. 0:10:52.040 --> 0:10:53.000 Are always like the books. 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:54.839 The books win money, so if you're just on the 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:56.600 same side of the books, you're going to win money 0:10:56.600 --> 0:11:00.600 over time. But there's a number of fallacies or problems 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:03.120 with that line of thinking. The first one is that 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:05.600 the books are making the majority of their money off 0:11:05.640 --> 0:11:09.000 of parlays and teaser bets, not necessarily straight bets, so 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:11.400 the hold on straight bets is significantly lower than that 0:11:11.440 --> 0:11:13.640 of parlays and teasers. Then, on top of that, the 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:16.520 books charge a big When you're betting the same size 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:19.560 side as a book, you're paying a vig whereas they're 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:22.400 charging the bet or the opposite. So I'm not a 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:24.920 big believer in the fade the public strategy. I don't 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:28.319 think books are typically setting the public up for some 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:30.600 type of bet or anything like that. I think in 0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:33.640 this scenario it's pretty simple to me. They've put out 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:36.640 a line that will probably see the public bet one way, 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:39.040 sharp's bet the other way. It kind of counters a 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:42.640 little bit, but ultimately it's not a big factor in 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:46.200 my handicapping, because I mean, the reality is the public 0:11:46.240 --> 0:11:48.960 still does get games right. And if you're gonna continuously 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:52.160 just ignore your opinion on a game because other people 0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:54.480 like it as well, I think you're doing yourself at 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:54.960 the service. 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:56.840 Yeah, I think that's a great point. And you know, 0:11:57.080 --> 0:11:58.880 part of the thing I also think about is that 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.400 I feel like there are times really where the books 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.400 don't mind taking a side, and I think that that's fine. 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:05.959 I mean, they're not always going to be right, and 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:07.960 I think it's fine if they're not just looking to 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:09.400 balance it out, if they know they're going to be 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:12.080 heavy on the Saints and they're willing to take that risk, 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.600 and I think sometimes that's what's gonna happen. 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:16.080 So I agree, you know, I don't. 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:20.440 I don't always feel comfortable necessarily when the vast majority 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:22.559 of you know, it's something like you know, let's say 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:25.000 seventy percent or above, are with the public. It does 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:26.920 make me a little queasy, and it at least makes 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:28.920 me rethink how I'm looking at the game. But I 0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:32.440 like the insight into not letting it really control your decisions. 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:34.440 Let's move on here to the Eagles at the Dolphins. 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:37.240 The Eagles here currently laying nine and the over under 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.040 at forty six. The Eagles, as you mentioned earlier, they're 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:43.920 just decimated offensively, missing a ton of skilled players, Jordan Howard, Alston, 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:47.480 Jeffrey Nelson, Agalore, injuries up and down the offensive line. 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.640 Carson Wentz, you know, is banged up, apparently he's going 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.079 to play in this game. And then they're the Dolphins. 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:55.640 You've got Ryan Fitzpatrick, You've got Devontai Parker, and that's 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:57.200 pretty much it. So how do you feel here about 0:12:57.200 --> 0:12:59.600 the Eagles. It's big number here, laying nine over underd 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:00.840 forty sive in Miami. 0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:03.240 I think ultimately this is going to come down to 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:05.920 the Eagles injury report, because at the end of the day, 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:08.800 if you do have a somewhat healthy Eagles team, I 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:10.600 know they're only five and six on the year. I 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.280 know Carson Wentz hasn't looked good, but they're still significantly 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:15.840 more talented than the Miami Dolphins, who really don't do 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:18.880 anything well. So ultimately, this is one of those where 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:21.439 I would just advise waiting to see what happens with 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:23.800 the Eagles injury report. I certainly wouldn't want to back 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:27.079 the Dolphins personally. I sort of talked about this on 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.680 the periscope that I do on my Twitter each week. 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.800 But the Dolphins had these I would call them regular 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.000 prices early in the year. I mean, they were touchdown 0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:37.520 underdog to Baltimore. There were some games where the spreads 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:39.760 were realistic, and then they weren't covering. I think it 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:41.520 was four straight games to start the year where they 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:44.280 couldn't cover spread. All of a sudden, you got these 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:48.440 massive inflated numbers seventeen points, twenty twenty one points, and 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:50.559 the Dolphins covered a string of games in a row. 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:52.800 And now we're back down into what I would call 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:55.800 the reasonable range. And I don't want to back the 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:58.839 Dolphins at what I consider to be a somewhat reasonable price. 0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:00.719 In order to back Miami, I need it to be 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:03.320 an obscene number because this is a really bad football team. 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.960 So for me, it's ultimately gonna be Eagles or nothing. 0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:08.720 I still do think that, I mean, the Eagles are 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:09.920 better than a five and sixteen. 0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:11.160 They're tenth in Dvoway. 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:13.000 They just haven't been able to put it together this 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:16.720 year offensively, and defensively in the same game. But certainly 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.640 if they get some weapons back, especially Ashon Jeffrey, would 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:21.320 be a really nice one for them to actually have 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.680 a number one receiver. I could see some market support 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:26.840 on the Eagles here in this number going up even further. 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:30.000 But I ultimately do think that this game and where 0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:32.520 this line moves is going to be dictated by who 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:34.360 is playing for the Philadelphia Eagles on sie. 0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:36.560 So let's say that the reports for the Eagles. By 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:38.440 the way, I do want to mention I neglected to 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:41.000 give out Rob's Twitter handle at the beginning, He's at 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:45.320 Rob Pizzela at his name. Let's say that the injury 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:48.880 reports are great for the Eagles, right, Everybody certainly is 0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:52.480 coming back Lane Johnson, Alshon Jeffrey Nels, Nageler, Jordan Howard 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:54.760 and everything like that. Where would you expect this line 0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:56.720 necessarily to move throughout the week. 0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:00.400 I think you'd see a creep above ten, I mean 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:02.320 ten and a half. You might start to see a 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:04.400 little bit of buyback on the Dolphins. I'm not quite 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:06.600 sure on that, but I think it could get above 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.560 ten depending on the injury status for the Eagles. 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:11.560 All right, let's move on to the next game here, 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:14.760 Jets at the Bengals. Jets here are laying it's now 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.320 down to three and a half. It was legitimately four 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.240 when I checked five seconds before we started recording, and 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:22.360 the over unders at forty one. And I'm sure part 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.080 of the reason that it is on its way down 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:26.480 is that the Bengals came out today and said that 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:29.080 they are going back to Andy Dalton as opposed to 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:32.080 Ryan Finley. Certainly that makes them a stronger team if 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:35.160 you've seen Finley play lately. The Jets, though they continue 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:37.960 to roll. They look solid offensively so long as they 0:15:37.960 --> 0:15:40.120 can face a team without a pass rush, which is 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:41.960 kind of what the Bengals have. So how do you 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:43.680 feel here about the Jets laying three and a half 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:44.800 the over under at forty one. 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:47.120 Yeah, it's really tough with the Jets, obviously for the 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.600 reasons that you just mentioned. They're playing much much better 0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.040 as of late, but they really haven't played anyone. It's 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:55.240 been cupcakes for them for a while now, with the Giants, 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:57.040 the Redskins. Now, I don't want to call the Raiders 0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.600 a cupcake, but not the greatest scheduling spot for the 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:02.360 Raiders with the early start on the East Coast having 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:04.440 to play the Chiefs in the next week. I mean, 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:07.560 the Raiders pulled a car in the third quarter of 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:09.080 that game. That tells you all you need to know 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:11.920 about how much they're preparing for the Chiefs coming up 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.080 this week as well. But ultimately, I do think you're 0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:16.600 going to see a couple of things here. We saw 0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:18.440 a little bit already, as you mentioned, but I think 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:20.560 more money will come in on the Bengals. I think 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:22.640 more money will come in on the over in this game, 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:25.720