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Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harrison.

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Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi.

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Speaker 1: It is time for our early look at next week's lines,

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Speaker 1: and with me to break it all down is Rob Pizzola,

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Speaker 1: a pro sports better.

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Speaker 2: Rob. How's it going, man?

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Speaker 3: It's going well.

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Speaker 4: Interesting time of year now, obviously with everything getting into

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Speaker 4: full swing. So this is one of my favorite times

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Speaker 4: a year as a sports better.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, me too.

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Speaker 1: This is a really good time overall. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of Thanksgiving. I feel like, given

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Speaker 1: my profession, my family has become pretty accustomed to me

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Speaker 1: being glued to the TV throughout Thanksgiving, so it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be pretty fun. But of course, you know, we've got

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Speaker 1: the three Thursday games here, a rarity for the season,

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Speaker 1: so we've got a lot to look into now. Rob

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Speaker 1: and I are going to go through each game on

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Speaker 1: the week thirteenth slate, and we'll be using the consensus

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Speaker 1: odds over at bettingpros dot com. Those are the aggregate

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Speaker 1: odds that you're gonna find from a bunch of different sportsbooks. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Lions are gonna move as bets come in. Odds

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Speaker 1: makers are going to adjust, so pay close attention in case,

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Speaker 1: like us, you particularly like or do not like any

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Speaker 1: given line. All right, rob let's dive in here with

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Speaker 1: the Thanksgiving games, and we'll start, as always with the

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Speaker 1: Lions game, the first game of the week, the Bears

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Speaker 1: visiting the Lions. The current odds listed on our consensus

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Speaker 1: odds are the Bears laying two and the over under

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Speaker 1: here at thirty nine. Now that has dropped a bit

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Speaker 1: from the look aheadline of forty one.

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Speaker 2: It's hard to back the Bears.

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Speaker 1: Lately, but they do beat the Giants. Mitchell Trubisky looks

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Speaker 1: quasi competent. The defense still looks strong, though not quite

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Speaker 1: as dominant as they did last year. Meanwhile, the Lions

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Speaker 1: are still rolling with Jeff Driscoll. They lose to the

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Speaker 1: hapless Redskins. They may have lost Snax Harrison in this game.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure of the extent of the injury. But

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Speaker 1: it's Thanksgiving, their home. So how do you feel about

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Speaker 1: the Bears laying two and the over under at thirty nine?

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Speaker 4: So definitely the Bears are going to get a lot

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Speaker 4: of Thanksgiving Day action here, I think, both by the

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Speaker 4: general public and by professionals, and mainly that's because of

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Speaker 4: the Lions injury report. So Jeff Driscoll limited in practice

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Speaker 4: today because of a hamstring injury. There's a very realistic

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Speaker 4: possibility that they're going to have to go to the

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Speaker 4: third string quarterback, who is someone I've never heard of

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Speaker 4: in my life. I believe his name is David Brow

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Speaker 4: or something along. I don't even remember his name, to

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Speaker 4: be completely honest with you. Was a backup at college,

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Speaker 4: was the fourth stringer to start the season for the

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Speaker 4: Cleveland Browns. So because of that, I just don't see

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Speaker 4: much anyone willing to really back the lines in this situation.

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Speaker 4: I think the number will continue to climb, so get

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Speaker 4: in early on the Bears. And it's not just the

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Speaker 4: quarterback position for the Lions. If you look at the

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Speaker 4: early injury report, it is a complete disaster for them

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Speaker 4: with a number of players either limited in practice today

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Speaker 4: or not practicing whatsoever. So definitely the Bear is going

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Speaker 4: to get a ton of action. I could see this

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Speaker 4: even going above three up to three and a half.

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Speaker 4: It's very very rare to see something move that much,

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Speaker 4: and through the key number of three, especially when they

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Speaker 4: were down around minus one earlier today. But certainly, I

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Speaker 4: think there's just going to be a lack of resistance

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Speaker 4: for all the Bears money that's coming in.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that any because again I saw the

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Speaker 1: limited practice reports for most of them, and again Dressco

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Speaker 1: Driscoll practiced, but he was limited with a hamstring injury.

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Speaker 2: I mean, do you.

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Speaker 1: Think though that they're just kind of taking it easy

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Speaker 1: here because I didn't feel like they came out of

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Speaker 1: that game with being like, oh man, they're totally banged up.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how they're going to be able to

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Speaker 1: turn around. I didn't even know that Driscoll was injured

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Speaker 1: until I saw the practice report at all. Do you

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Speaker 1: think that this is something where it could legitimately put

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Speaker 1: their playing time in jeopardy? So, I mean, I know

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Speaker 1: you're obviously not an inside or anything like that, but

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Speaker 1: if you do like the Bears, this is something then

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Speaker 1: that you would take into consideration because you do think

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Speaker 1: there's a legitimate chance, essentially based on the practice reports,

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Speaker 1: that they could be significantly limited.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think at this point. I mean, it's always

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Speaker 4: a judgment call in the NFL, right, I mean when

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Speaker 4: you're betting earlier. Looking at the early board, you're not

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Speaker 4: going to get the true scope of things. And sometimes

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Speaker 4: things are going to work in your favor, and sometimes

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Speaker 4: things are going to work against you. You take the Eagles,

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Speaker 4: for example, last week, who were expected to have potentially

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Speaker 4: Jordan Howard back and al shonn Jeffery back in the lineup,

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Speaker 4: and then Sunday morning comes and they're not playing, and

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Speaker 4: that significantly effects the handicap of the game altogether. So

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Speaker 4: you have to use reason. But typically when players are

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Speaker 4: limited in practice, especially on a short week, it doesn't

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Speaker 4: bode well. And some of these guys not practicing altogether

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Speaker 4: is a complete problem for them. Looks like they're gonna

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Speaker 4: have cluster injuries in the secondary. I think the Detroit

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Speaker 4: Lions are a complete mess this week. And what makes

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Speaker 4: it even more difficult is, obviously, like I said, preparing

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Speaker 4: with only three days, trying to come up with a

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Speaker 4: game plan for a quarterback who's never expected to see

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Speaker 4: time whatsoever against a very good defense. I'm just struggling

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Speaker 4: to see how the Lions compete in this game unless

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Speaker 4: the Bears handed to them, and the Bears are fully

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Speaker 4: capable of doing that. I mean, they run a horrible offense,

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Speaker 4: and they can definitely throw away the game with some turnovers.

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Speaker 4: But certainly I just see, like I said, there's gonna

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Speaker 4: be there's probably gonna be no resistance at this number

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Speaker 4: and just money pouring in on the Bears to the

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Speaker 4: point where the oddsmakers are going to have to really

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Speaker 4: raise this number up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: No, look, I love the Bears, Certainly, the d anything

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Speaker 1: less than the key number of three, it's just really

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Speaker 1: difficult to see a scenario again unless the Bear is

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Speaker 1: essentially handed to him, and we know Mitchell Trubisky is

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Speaker 1: more than capable of doing that. But unless they really

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Speaker 1: handed to him, it's a little difficult to see the Lions.

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Speaker 2: Coming in on top.

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Speaker 1: So anything under the key number, I agree, if you

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Speaker 1: like it right now, it's probably a good idea to

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Speaker 1: get in. Let's move on to the Bills at the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: Cowboys here laying seven and the over under at forty

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Speaker 1: four and a half. Look, headline was seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: so it has ticked down a little bit to the

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Speaker 1: key number of seven, but not significantly. The Bills get

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Speaker 1: back on track here at home against the Broncos with

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Speaker 1: a strong showing particularly defensively. But now they go on

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Speaker 1: the road to take on what is essentially a desperate

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Speaker 1: Cowboys team that lost an ugly game against the Pats

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Speaker 1: where they really couldn't do much offensively, not entirely their fault,

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Speaker 1: of course, the Pats are a great defense, and the

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Speaker 1: weather was abysmal. But how do you feel here the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys laying seven at home on Thanksgiving with the over

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Speaker 1: under forty four and a half.

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Speaker 4: I think the likely you'll get market support on the

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Speaker 4: Cowboys and probably on the over in this game as well.

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Speaker 4: The Bills are eight and three by record, but a

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Speaker 4: lot of the advanced metrics are not going to be

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Speaker 4: appealing for them, especially if those who are handicapping using DVOA.

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Speaker 4: Where the Bills are twenty fifth this year the Cowboys fourth. Now,

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Speaker 4: I don't know if that money's gonna come right away.

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Speaker 4: I think potentially, if you're a shark better you'd much

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Speaker 4: rather get the Cowboys at six and a half than seven.

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Speaker 4: But ultimately I just see this closing at seven or higher.

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Speaker 4: I don't think there's gonna be a ton of sharp

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Speaker 4: support on the Bills in terms of the total Dallas'

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Speaker 4: offense is really good.

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Speaker 3: Their defense is.

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Speaker 4: Not and forty four and a half right now as

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Speaker 4: the consensus total in this game. I would probably see

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Speaker 4: some support coming in on the over in this game,

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Speaker 4: even up to forty five forty five and a half,

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Speaker 4: definitely not down below forty four, which is a key

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Speaker 4: number in the NFL. So I think that that's the

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Speaker 4: way it's gonna head. I'm not sure if I'm going

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Speaker 4: to be involved in this game altogether, but I do

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Speaker 4: think I expect that the sharp money will be on

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Speaker 4: the Cowboys in the over.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have a strong feel necessarily for the line.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think at seven is about right. I

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Speaker 1: agree with you though that the total. You know, I

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Speaker 1: feel like the over is gonna get the majority of

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Speaker 1: the bets. I think I'll probably be in on that

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Speaker 1: as well. I mean, I feel like in the end,

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Speaker 1: given unless Mari Cooper is significantly limited, Obviously he's been

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Speaker 1: battling that knee injury, and he was on the sidelines

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Speaker 1: quite a bit during that game against the Patriots, despite

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Speaker 1: the fact that it was closed. So if he is

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Speaker 1: hampered and it's a Thursday game, then that does change things.

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Speaker 1: But assuming that he's a full go, and he practices

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Speaker 1: in full this week and he's ready to go. I

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Speaker 1: do think that this is going to be a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a get right game, even though the Bills

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Speaker 1: have a very strong defense. Of course, they're vulnerable against

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Speaker 1: the run, so you'll see a lot of Ezekiel Elliott

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Speaker 1: that could you lean towards the under considering they want to.

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Speaker 2: Run the ball.

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Speaker 1: But I feel like this is a little bit going

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Speaker 1: to be a get right game here. But the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: offense and the Bills can score. As much as Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: you know, isn't the most accurate quarterback in the league,

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Speaker 1: he's certainly able to move the ball pretty effectively both

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Speaker 1: on the ground, and John Brown is having a great season,

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Speaker 1: so I do think that there will be points score.

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Speaker 1: So I agree that money and sharp betters will probably

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Speaker 1: hit the over. Let's move on to these Saints at

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Speaker 1: the Falcons the night game on Thanksgiving, Saint Sierra laying

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Speaker 1: six and a half with the over under at fifty

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Speaker 1: two weeks ago. Look, the Falcons really manhandled the Saints

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Speaker 1: in New Orleans, but the Saints here are obviously heavily favored.

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Speaker 1: They're coming off that big win against the Panthers with

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Speaker 1: the last second field go. Meanwhile, the Falcons, who had

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Speaker 1: looked outstanding the past two weeks, particularly their defense, come

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Speaker 1: back down to earth against the Bucks. The offense looks

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Speaker 1: completely out of sync. Julio Jones gets banged up. He's

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Speaker 1: listed as it did not practice today. Again, I take

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Speaker 1: it a little bit with a grain of salt on

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Speaker 1: these Monday practices on a short week, because I think

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Speaker 1: they're just being careful. But he is listed as it

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Speaker 1: did not practice, and again he was in and out

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Speaker 1: of that game with the shoulder injury. So how do

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Speaker 1: you feel here? Saints on the road laying six and

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Speaker 1: a half with an over under of fifty.

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Speaker 4: I'm not high on the Falcons this year. I've been

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Speaker 4: betting against them quite a bit. I'm also not high

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Speaker 4: on the Saints. But really, I think the Falcons a

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Speaker 4: lot of the yardage that they've put up this year

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Speaker 4: has been in garbage time, and that's kind of inflated

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Speaker 4: their yardage numbers and their yards for play numbers when

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Speaker 4: they've been trailing for a lot of the season. With

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Speaker 4: that said, I do expect that eventually we're going to

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Speaker 4: see some market support on Atlanta just because they played

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Speaker 4: the Saints so tough couple of weeks ago. But ultimately

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Speaker 4: I think that move is gonna come late, because when

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Speaker 4: you think about this, this is the third game on

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Speaker 4: Thanksgiving Day slate. The reality is the public betters are

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Speaker 4: gonna see New Orleans minus six and a half. They're

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Speaker 4: gonna think that that's free money, and there's just gonna

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Speaker 4: be a ton of money on.

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Speaker 3: The Saints regardless.

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Speaker 4: Either it's the chase game of the day where people

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Speaker 4: have lost earlier on in the first couple of games

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Speaker 4: and now they're kind of doubling up on the Saints,

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Speaker 4: or it's the opposite, where they've won earlier in the

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Speaker 4: day and they feel comfortable to put their bets on

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Speaker 4: the Saints. So there's gonna be large handle on this game.

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Speaker 4: If you're a sharp better, why bet the Falcons early

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Speaker 4: now knowing that there's gonna be a ton of money

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Speaker 4: coming in.

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Speaker 3: On the Saints regardless.

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Speaker 4: So I think ultimately, closer to game time, you'll see

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Speaker 4: some money come in on the Falcons. Potentially we might

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Speaker 4: see this number get up to seven seven and a

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Speaker 4: half before you see some resistance there. I don't think

240
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Speaker 4: I will be involved. I mean seven and a half.

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Speaker 4: I'd certainly consider the Falcons at home, especially, like I said,

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Speaker 4: with the way that they played the Saints tough a

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Speaker 4: couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 3: That defense really showed up to.

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Speaker 4: Play in that game. But aside from that, it's not

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Speaker 4: a game that I love. Definitely, sports books will be

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Speaker 4: cheering for the Falcons outright win because the Saints will

248
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Speaker 4: probably be involved on every single teaser imaginable this weekend

249
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Speaker 4: as well, So huge liability probably building for books on

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Speaker 4: the Saints.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, how do you feel?

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Speaker 1: How do you think about that when books are I mean,

253
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Speaker 1: you know what's going to happen on this game, right,

254
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Speaker 1: Despite the fact that the Falcons beat up on the

255
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Speaker 1: Saints two weeks ago, the public this just screams when

256
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Speaker 1: you're under a touchdown, It screams the public to back

257
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Speaker 1: the Saints. Do you consider that at all when you're

258
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Speaker 1: thinking about a line and saying like it really seems

259
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Speaker 1: like the books are sort of inviting the public to

260
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Speaker 1: go here and they're probably going to be on the

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Speaker 1: hook for a Falcons. You know, if the Falcons fail

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Speaker 1: to cover, I mean, does that factor into your equation

263
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Speaker 1: as to who you're going to back? Each and every

264
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Speaker 1: week or does that something that you have your model

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Speaker 1: and that's all there is.

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Speaker 3: I don't factor in public bets.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a little bit of a misperception with

268
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Speaker 4: the whole fade the public thing, And I mean people.

269
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Speaker 3: Are always like the books.

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Speaker 4: The books win money, so if you're just on the

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Speaker 4: same side of the books, you're going to win money

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Speaker 4: over time. But there's a number of fallacies or problems

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Speaker 4: with that line of thinking. The first one is that

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Speaker 4: the books are making the majority of their money off

275
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Speaker 4: of parlays and teaser bets, not necessarily straight bets, so

276
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Speaker 4: the hold on straight bets is significantly lower than that

277
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Speaker 4: of parlays and teasers. Then, on top of that, the

278
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Speaker 4: books charge a big When you're betting the same size

279
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Speaker 4: side as a book, you're paying a vig whereas they're

280
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Speaker 4: charging the bet or the opposite. So I'm not a

281
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Speaker 4: big believer in the fade the public strategy. I don't

282
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Speaker 4: think books are typically setting the public up for some

283
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Speaker 4: type of bet or anything like that. I think in

284
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Speaker 4: this scenario it's pretty simple to me. They've put out

285
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Speaker 4: a line that will probably see the public bet one way,

286
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Speaker 4: sharp's bet the other way. It kind of counters a

287
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Speaker 4: little bit, but ultimately it's not a big factor in

288
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Speaker 4: my handicapping, because I mean, the reality is the public

289
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Speaker 4: still does get games right. And if you're gonna continuously

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Speaker 4: just ignore your opinion on a game because other people

291
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Speaker 4: like it as well, I think you're doing yourself at

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Speaker 4: the service.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a great point. And you know,

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Speaker 1: part of the thing I also think about is that

295
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Speaker 1: I feel like there are times really where the books

296
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Speaker 1: don't mind taking a side, and I think that that's fine.

297
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Speaker 1: I mean, they're not always going to be right, and

298
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Speaker 1: I think it's fine if they're not just looking to

299
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Speaker 1: balance it out, if they know they're going to be

300
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Speaker 1: heavy on the Saints and they're willing to take that risk,

301
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Speaker 1: and I think sometimes that's what's gonna happen.

302
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Speaker 2: So I agree, you know, I don't.

303
00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:20,440
Speaker 1: I don't always feel comfortable necessarily when the vast majority

304
00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:22,559
Speaker 1: of you know, it's something like you know, let's say

305
00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:25,000
Speaker 1: seventy percent or above, are with the public. It does

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00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:26,920
Speaker 1: make me a little queasy, and it at least makes

307
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Speaker 1: me rethink how I'm looking at the game. But I

308
00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:32,440
Speaker 1: like the insight into not letting it really control your decisions.

309
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Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Eagles at the Dolphins.

310
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Speaker 1: The Eagles here currently laying nine and the over under

311
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Speaker 1: at forty six. The Eagles, as you mentioned earlier, they're

312
00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,920
Speaker 1: just decimated offensively, missing a ton of skilled players, Jordan Howard, Alston,

313
00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:47,480
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Nelson, Agalore, injuries up and down the offensive line.

314
00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,640
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz, you know, is banged up, apparently he's going

315
00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:53,079
Speaker 1: to play in this game. And then they're the Dolphins.

316
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Speaker 1: You've got Ryan Fitzpatrick, You've got Devontai Parker, and that's

317
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Speaker 1: pretty much it. So how do you feel here about

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Speaker 1: the Eagles. It's big number here, laying nine over underd

319
00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:00,840
Speaker 1: forty sive in Miami.

320
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Speaker 4: I think ultimately this is going to come down to

321
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Speaker 4: the Eagles injury report, because at the end of the day,

322
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Speaker 4: if you do have a somewhat healthy Eagles team, I

323
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Speaker 4: know they're only five and six on the year. I

324
00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:13,280
Speaker 4: know Carson Wentz hasn't looked good, but they're still significantly

325
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,840
Speaker 4: more talented than the Miami Dolphins, who really don't do

326
00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:18,880
Speaker 4: anything well. So ultimately, this is one of those where

327
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Speaker 4: I would just advise waiting to see what happens with

328
00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,800
Speaker 4: the Eagles injury report. I certainly wouldn't want to back

329
00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:27,079
Speaker 4: the Dolphins personally. I sort of talked about this on

330
00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:29,680
Speaker 4: the periscope that I do on my Twitter each week.

331
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,800
Speaker 4: But the Dolphins had these I would call them regular

332
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,000
Speaker 4: prices early in the year. I mean, they were touchdown

333
00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,520
Speaker 4: underdog to Baltimore. There were some games where the spreads

334
00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,760
Speaker 4: were realistic, and then they weren't covering. I think it

335
00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:41,520
Speaker 4: was four straight games to start the year where they

336
00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:44,280
Speaker 4: couldn't cover spread. All of a sudden, you got these

337
00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:48,440
Speaker 4: massive inflated numbers seventeen points, twenty twenty one points, and

338
00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:50,559
Speaker 4: the Dolphins covered a string of games in a row.

339
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Speaker 4: And now we're back down into what I would call

340
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,800
Speaker 4: the reasonable range. And I don't want to back the

341
00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,839
Speaker 4: Dolphins at what I consider to be a somewhat reasonable price.

342
00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:00,719
Speaker 4: In order to back Miami, I need it to be

343
00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,320
Speaker 4: an obscene number because this is a really bad football team.

344
00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,960
Speaker 4: So for me, it's ultimately gonna be Eagles or nothing.

345
00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:08,720
Speaker 4: I still do think that, I mean, the Eagles are

346
00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:09,920
Speaker 4: better than a five and sixteen.

347
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:11,160
Speaker 3: They're tenth in Dvoway.

348
00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,000
Speaker 4: They just haven't been able to put it together this

349
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,720
Speaker 4: year offensively, and defensively in the same game. But certainly

350
00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,640
Speaker 4: if they get some weapons back, especially Ashon Jeffrey, would

351
00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,320
Speaker 4: be a really nice one for them to actually have

352
00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:24,680
Speaker 4: a number one receiver. I could see some market support

353
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 4: on the Eagles here in this number going up even further.

354
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Speaker 4: But I ultimately do think that this game and where

355
00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,520
Speaker 4: this line moves is going to be dictated by who

356
00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:34,360
Speaker 4: is playing for the Philadelphia Eagles on sie.

357
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,560
Speaker 1: So let's say that the reports for the Eagles. By

358
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,440
Speaker 1: the way, I do want to mention I neglected to

359
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,000
Speaker 1: give out Rob's Twitter handle at the beginning, He's at

360
00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:45,320
Speaker 1: Rob Pizzela at his name. Let's say that the injury

361
00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,880
Speaker 1: reports are great for the Eagles, right, Everybody certainly is

362
00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,480
Speaker 1: coming back Lane Johnson, Alshon Jeffrey Nels, Nageler, Jordan Howard

363
00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:54,760
Speaker 1: and everything like that. Where would you expect this line

364
00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:56,720
Speaker 1: necessarily to move throughout the week.

365
00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:00,400
Speaker 4: I think you'd see a creep above ten, I mean

366
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:02,320
Speaker 4: ten and a half. You might start to see a

367
00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:04,400
Speaker 4: little bit of buyback on the Dolphins. I'm not quite

368
00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,600
Speaker 4: sure on that, but I think it could get above

369
00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,560
Speaker 4: ten depending on the injury status for the Eagles.

370
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next game here,

371
00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,760
Speaker 1: Jets at the Bengals. Jets here are laying it's now

372
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,320
Speaker 1: down to three and a half. It was legitimately four

373
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:20,240
Speaker 1: when I checked five seconds before we started recording, and

374
00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:22,360
Speaker 1: the over unders at forty one. And I'm sure part

375
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,080
Speaker 1: of the reason that it is on its way down

376
00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,480
Speaker 1: is that the Bengals came out today and said that

377
00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:29,080
Speaker 1: they are going back to Andy Dalton as opposed to

378
00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,080
Speaker 1: Ryan Finley. Certainly that makes them a stronger team if

379
00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:35,160
Speaker 1: you've seen Finley play lately. The Jets, though they continue

380
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,960
Speaker 1: to roll. They look solid offensively so long as they

381
00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 1: can face a team without a pass rush, which is

382
00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:41,960
Speaker 1: kind of what the Bengals have. So how do you

383
00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:43,680
Speaker 1: feel here about the Jets laying three and a half

384
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:44,800
Speaker 1: the over under at forty one.

385
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's really tough with the Jets, obviously for the

386
00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,600
Speaker 4: reasons that you just mentioned. They're playing much much better

387
00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,040
Speaker 4: as of late, but they really haven't played anyone. It's

388
00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,240
Speaker 4: been cupcakes for them for a while now, with the Giants,

389
00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,040
Speaker 4: the Redskins. Now, I don't want to call the Raiders

390
00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,600
Speaker 4: a cupcake, but not the greatest scheduling spot for the

391
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 4: Raiders with the early start on the East Coast having

392
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 4: to play the Chiefs in the next week. I mean,

393
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 4: the Raiders pulled a car in the third quarter of

394
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,080
Speaker 4: that game. That tells you all you need to know

395
00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,920
Speaker 4: about how much they're preparing for the Chiefs coming up

396
00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,080
Speaker 4: this week as well. But ultimately, I do think you're

397
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:16,600
Speaker 4: going to see a couple of things here. We saw

398
00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 4: a little bit already, as you mentioned, but I think

399
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,560
Speaker 4: more money will come in on the Bengals. I think

400
00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 4: more money will come in on the over in this game,

401
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,720
Speaker 4: barring some really bad weather in Cincinnati. And that's actually

402
00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,160
Speaker 4: something I should point out. Typically this point of the year,

403
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 4: totals in half of these games are going to be

404
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:35,000
Speaker 4: influenced by weather. If it's windy in these East Coast

405
00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 4: cold places, you're going to see the totals come down

406
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,160
Speaker 4: in these games, regardless of the matchup, just because we

407
00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:43,000
Speaker 4: know that wind is such a factor in games. Ultimately,

408
00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 4: if you see clearer conditions and games not being super cold,

409
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:48,760
Speaker 4: you probably see them go up. It just really has

410
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:50,680
Speaker 4: an influence later on in the year as we go on.

411
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:54,040
Speaker 4: But I do see a bigger than a half point

412
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:57,320
Speaker 4: difference between Finley and Dalton and I think the market

413
00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 4: will see that as well. So I think this number

414
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,800
Speaker 4: probably comes down to plus three. I think this total

415
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,240
Speaker 4: probably on the rise to closer to forty two forty

416
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,560
Speaker 4: two and a half, again, barring some really bad weather

417
00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,920
Speaker 4: in Cincinnati. I'm not saying I love either, but I

418
00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 4: think that's what the market will support.

419
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would go with the over on this. I

420
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:16,720
Speaker 1: think both teams are going to be able to move

421
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 1: the ball fairly effectively.

422
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,520
Speaker 2: Again, you know, the Jets, they've been able to move.

423
00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,120
Speaker 1: The ball for the majority of the year. Again, it's

424
00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,720
Speaker 1: largely dependent on the pass rush. It's why the Raiders

425
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,240
Speaker 1: laying three was a little bit surprising when you looked

426
00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,639
Speaker 1: on the surface. But you know, they're the type of

427
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:33,920
Speaker 1: team that you know their defense had been playing better,

428
00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:36,239
Speaker 1: but they certainly don't have a strong pass rush that

429
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 1: fits right into the Jets hands. And again, the Jets

430
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:43,360
Speaker 1: defense is largely better against the run. That's where primarily

431
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,399
Speaker 1: the Raiders like to live their life through Josh Jacobs

432
00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,800
Speaker 1: here and again, the Bengals, they aren't great, but Dalton

433
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,560
Speaker 1: certainly adds a bit of a dimension that they have

434
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,120
Speaker 1: been missing in the past couple of games.

435
00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:53,800
Speaker 2: So I agree.

436
00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:55,199
Speaker 1: I think the over is going to tick up. If

437
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:56,760
Speaker 1: you like it, you should probably get it now. And

438
00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,840
Speaker 1: I could see also the spread continuing to trickle down

439
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 1: as the market reacts to Dalton coming back. Now, before

440
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 1: we move on, I want to tell everyone about the

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458
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463
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464
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465
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466
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Speaker 1: And if you've got a gambling problem called one eight

468
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Speaker 1: hundred gambler. All right, let's move on here to the

469
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 1: Titans at the Colts. Here are laying three with the

470
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,920
Speaker 1: over under at forty three. The Colts is a tough

471
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 1: one on Thursday to the Texans. They do get that

472
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 1: mini by of course, they're still down Marlon Mack. He's

473
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,640
Speaker 1: already been declared out for this game. The Titans look.

474
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,880
Speaker 1: They continue to look extremely strong offensively now that Ryan

475
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 1: Tannehill is under center and Derrick Henry gets rolling in

476
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 1: this cold weather games as he often does. They've got

477
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 1: some injuries to their secondary but overall their defenses playing well.

478
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 1: So how do you feel here in the divisional game,

479
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:42,800
Speaker 1: Colts laying three over under at forty three.

480
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 4: I don't think we're going to see much movement on

481
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:46,920
Speaker 4: the side, to be honest with you, I think there's

482
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 4: a pretty large contingent of the population that probably views

483
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 4: these teams as equal teams. With that said, the Titans

484
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 4: have been drawing some money lately. They end up closing

485
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 4: four and a half point favorites over Jacksonville with a

486
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,680
Speaker 4: lot of late money coming in on that game last week.

487
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 4: I think probably what you'll see is the total being

488
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 4: bet up. That's been a consistent trend now for Titans

489
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 4: games for the most part, and for the reason that

490
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 4: you just mentioned. I'm not a Ryan Tannehill fan, but

491
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,919
Speaker 4: you can't argue with what he's done in the limited

492
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 4: sample so far. Now. Granted there's been some bad defenses

493
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,120
Speaker 4: in that spot, but ultimately he's been able to move

494
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,679
Speaker 4: this offense. He's gotten their success rates up to a

495
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 4: respectable rate. Yards per play way up for the Titans

496
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 4: offense as well. So forty three seems like a short number.

497
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 4: I think this will be bet up probably to forty four,

498
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 4: So I think you'll see some money on the over.

499
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 4: In terms of side I think you're more likely to

500
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 4: see the market back the Colts because of that mini

501
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 4: bye week, because the Titans are coming off will blow

502
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 4: out win. I think potentially you could see some Colts

503
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 4: market support, but probably not too much. Maybe up to

504
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 4: minus three, minus one to twenty something along those lines.

505
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 4: I personally like the over in this game, just even

506
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 4: talking and talking myself into it now. I do like

507
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,679
Speaker 4: this Titans offense quite a bit. I think he can

508
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 4: move the ball on this defense as well. So forty

509
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 4: three seems like a short number in good conditions in

510
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 4: Indianapolis at Lucas Oil.

511
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the Lookouad line was forty two, so it's

512
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 1: already trending up with good reason. As we mentioned with Tanheill,

513
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,160
Speaker 1: this strikes me as a game that's just not going

514
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 1: to be heavily bet. There just doesn't seem like an

515
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 1: obvious side here. It seems like a pretty even matchup.

516
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 1: That's why you know, a divisional game with the Colts

517
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 1: at home laying three, I don't see much movement, sort

518
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,199
Speaker 1: of exactly what you said. I don't see that this

519
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 1: line is going to move. I'll be shocked if it

520
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,880
Speaker 1: ends at anywhere other than minus three unless people are

521
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 1: really you know, because of how dominant the Titans looked

522
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: against the Jaguars and how good Ryan Tannel looked and

523
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 1: Derek Henry, unless they're sort of buying into that. I

524
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 1: would really expect this to be a not particularly heavily

525
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 1: bet game, at least on the spread. But I agree

526
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 1: with you that the over under is probably going to

527
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 1: tick up, and I do as well. Kind of like

528
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 1: it certainly at forty two at the look headline, but

529
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: even at forty three, because I feel like both teams

530
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 1: are going to look to establish themselves offensively in this one.

531
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Browns at the Steelers. Browns

532
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 1: here or laying one. The look aheadline was Steelers laying

533
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 1: one and a half, so things have certainly changed there.

534
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,719
Speaker 1: The over under at forty the Steelers continued to really

535
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 1: do nothing offensively. Duck Hodges manages to get them a win,

536
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 1: but you know, they're probably still without James Connor. They're

537
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 1: probably still withou ju Juie Smith Schuster, who's battling both

538
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 1: the concussion and the knee injury. Meanwhile, the Browns continue

539
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 1: to roll over Miami. The offense looks much stronger now

540
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: that they've added Kareem Hunt. When they have the two

541
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 1: back sets, it's really making things work there. Darvis Landry

542
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 1: playing extremely well. There's some bad blood the team's met

543
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. You've got the whole Miles

544
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 1: Garrett thing hanging over their head, and again Miles Garrett

545
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 1: being out, you know is does affect the Browns defense,

546
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 1: even though you didn't really see it against Miami for

547
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 1: obvious reasons. So how do you feel here a divisional

548
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 1: game in Pittsburgh, Browns laying one with the total at forty.

549
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're certainly going to get that revenge game narrative

550
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 4: for the Steelers, obviously with what transpired a couple of

551
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 4: weeks ago. What I'm looking for here is the status

552
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 4: of Olivia Vernon on the Browns defensive line, because with

553
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:52,719
Speaker 4: him out, they're missing both of their best edge rushers

554
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 4: and Miles Garrett and Olivia Vernon, so that could certainly

555
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 4: give I'm assuming Hodges this week. I'd be surprised if

556
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 4: they went back to but I'm assuming Hodges will have

557
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 4: some time in the pocket, and I think he's capable.

558
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 4: I think he's a better quarterback than Kyle Mason.

559
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: Rudolph.

560
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 4: I'd certainly be more interested in backing the Pittsburgh Steelers

561
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 4: with Hodges under center. Personally, I do think you're going

562
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 4: to see some market support for the Steelers at some point.

563
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 4: I think they'll close a favorite. Their numbers are pretty

564
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 4: good defensively this season. There's probably not much separating these

565
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 4: two teams. And when you consider that the Browns ended

566
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 4: up closing around a three point favorite against the Steelers

567
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 4: only a couple weeks ago, now, all of a sudden

568
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,880
Speaker 4: our laying points on the road at Pittsburgh, I think

569
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 4: that's probably too much of a reversal, just based off

570
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 4: of Cleveland's game against Miami, who's really just a deplorable

571
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 4: football team. So I think you're gonna get some support

572
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 4: for the Steelers here, And personally I do like the Steelers,

573
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 4: but I would not want to be backing Rudolph. I'd

574
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 4: certainly be more likely to bet Pittsburgh with Hodges under center.

575
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:52,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't imagine that it's going to be Rudolph

576
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,199
Speaker 1: coming in. Just you know, again, Hodges didn't do all

577
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: that much. It was really one seventy nine yard catch

578
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 1: and run by James Washington. But certainly the offs looked

579
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 1: a little more alive with him under center. And I

580
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 1: agree with you here. I think the public is probably

581
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 1: going to back the Browns in this game, you know,

582
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: laying one, and even if that creeps up, you know,

583
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 1: I'm sure it won't get the three or anything like that,

584
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: but even as it creeps up, but I agree, I

585
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 1: kind of like the Steelers here playing at home. You know,

586
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 1: probably you know there's some bad blood here going on,

587
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 1: but I agree the Steelers sort of. You know, Look,

588
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't think Mike Tomlin is the

589
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 1: greatest coach in the world, but he certainly is able

590
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 1: to get his guys up when it looks like they

591
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 1: should just be completely fading away. And this is exactly

592
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: a type of game where you think they're just going

593
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 1: to come out and come out flat. But I think

594
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:38,959
Speaker 1: the defense is going to come out strong. I think

595
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: they'll do enough offensively to be able to move the ball.

596
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 1: So I do like them getting points certainly, and it's

597
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,399
Speaker 1: probably going to be a game that I'll be in

598
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 1: on coming in. Let's move on to the Redskins at

599
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,360
Speaker 1: the Panthers. Panthers here currently laying ten in the over

600
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: under at thirty nine and a half. Redskins come off

601
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 1: that big win against the Lions, but you know, they

602
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: do not look good offensively. They get a special team's

603
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 1: touchdown and all field goals. Dwayne Haskins really probably is

604
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 1: not ready to be an NFL quarterback, but I don't

605
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: begrudge the Redskins for throwing him out there at this point.

606
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 1: Give them the last season.

607
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 2: Panthers.

608
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, they show some life offensively, certainly against the Saints,

609
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,439
Speaker 1: but they lose that heartbreaker game after Joey Side misses

610
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 1: the field goal. They are desperate for a win here

611
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 1: returning home. How do you feel it's a big number?

612
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 1: Panthers laying ten with a total low at thirty nine

613
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 1: and a half.

614
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 4: I honestly have zero feel on this game, whatsoever sider total,

615
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 4: It's really difficult to obviously back the Redskins in any capacity,

616
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 4: and like you mentioned, you know they're coming off a win.

617
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 4: They got a special team's touchdown in that game. Dwayne

618
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 4: Haskins is not a pro quarterback right now. He's pretty

619
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 4: easily far and away the worst quarterback in the league.

620
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 4: I mean, he misses very routine throws. He just is

621
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 4: horrible decision making all together. So Washington very similarly to Miami.

622
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 4: If I'm going to back them, I want it to

623
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 4: be an obscene amount of points. Now, some might argue

624
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 4: the Panthers is double digit favorites. I mean, the Panthers

625
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 4: are twenty seventh in DVOA this year. It's a pretty

626
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 4: bad number for a team that's laying ten points. They're

627
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 4: coming off an emotional loss against the Saints. They put

628
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 4: a lot of effort in that game. Could conceivably be

629
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 4: a flat spot for them. But I just can't will

630
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 4: myself to bet Washington in any way because the offense

631
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 4: is so so bad. It's one of these games that

632
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 4: Carolina can sleepwalk for an entire half or even three

633
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 4: quarters and still manage to put together one good quarter

634
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 4: and cover the spreads. So not a game I'll be

635
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 4: involved with on side or total. I actually really have

636
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,719
Speaker 4: no idea where the market's going to go with this

637
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 4: one either, because I just think that there's an extreme

638
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 4: reluctancy to back Washington, and we saw it this past

639
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 4: weekend where actually money came in on Jeff driscoll as

640
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 4: a three and a half point road favorite, brought that

641
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 4: number up to four at the Redskins, So really no

642
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 4: one willing to support.

643
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 3: Washington right now.

644
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't blame them, but I don't think

645
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:48,640
Speaker 4: this is a week where people aren't going to jump

646
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 4: on the bad way.

647
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 2: No for sure.

648
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 1: I mean the look aat line was nine and a half.

649
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: It's already moved up a little bit to ten. I

650
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 1: can't imagine that there's going to be money on the Redskins.

651
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: You know, I don't really know. I kind of want

652
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 1: to like the Panthers, but ten is just such a

653
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: huge number. Again, you know, I feel like the only

654
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 1: way I would be worried really coming to the Panthers

655
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 1: is if they had either one last game or been

656
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 1: on a winning streak, and this could be a game

657
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 1: that they just look past. But at this point, they're

658
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 1: pretty desperate. I think they're gonna come out firing, both

659
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 1: offensively and defensively. But at ten, that's just a number

660
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: that I really don't feel comfortable with. Certainly not the Redskins,

661
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 1: but at this point with the Panthers, with the way

662
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 1: they've sort of been unable to close the door, it's

663
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 1: a little difficult for me to get behind them. Let's

664
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 1: move on to the Packers at the Giants. Packers here

665
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 1: are laying six, which is down from a look aheadline

666
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 1: of seven and a half. The over under at forty

667
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 1: six and a half. Packers just embarrassed on Sunday night

668
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 1: against the forty nine Ers. They lose their tackle Brian Blaga.

669
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a serious injury, but I doubt

670
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 1: he'll play this week. They fall into a tie. I

671
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,959
Speaker 1: believe that the Vikings, although I think they own the tiebreaker. Meanwhile,

672
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 1: the Giants are what they are. They put up a

673
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: fight against the Bears, but they're really just not a

674
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: very good football team. Saquon Barkley has not looked completely healthy.

675
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 1: They're not showing up either offensively or defensively. I believe

676
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 1: Golden Tate was placed in the concussion protocol, so there

677
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,719
Speaker 1: are a lot of injury concerns going on here. How

678
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: do you feel about the Packers on the road laying

679
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: six with a total of forty six and a half.

680
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the Packers are going to be one

681
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 4: of those sides that's both a square and a sharp

682
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 4: side this week. If I'm being honest, I think probably

683
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 4: up to seven. You'll see support on the Packers at

684
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 4: minus six and potentially minus six and a half. I mean,

685
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 4: this is one of those get right spots for them,

686
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 4: so to speak, embarrassed in prime time and now they're

687
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 4: going to take out the frustration on the Giants, and

688
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 4: that's going to be the narrative I think from the public.

689
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 4: But just in general, from a sharp perspective, or if

690
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 4: you're just backing the game on numbers, the Giants don't

691
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 4: really do anything well. Offensively, they're challenged, they turn the

692
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 4: ball over a little bit too much. Defensively, they've just

693
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 4: I mean, they've been Swiss cheese. Now, granted, the Bears

694
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 4: didn't move the ball on them, but the Bears don't

695
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 4: really move the ball on anyone, so you can kind

696
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 4: of throw that game out the window. So I think

697
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 4: you'll see a little bit of support for Green Bay here,

698
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 4: nothing crazy, and certainly sportsbooks.

699
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 3: Will be rooting for the Giants. It's really hard to

700
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 3: keep make a case for New York right now.

701
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 4: I mean, there are two to nine football team for

702
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 4: a reason, and I think early when Daniel Jones came

703
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 4: in earlier in the year, there was some hope, but

704
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 4: I think that's slowly kind of fallen away with this team.

705
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I agree that, you know, I think

706
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: under a touchdown at this point, there's just going to

707
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 1: be so much money coming in on the Packers, and

708
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 1: I agree both sides. I like the backers, and you know,

709
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: I don't mind being aligned with the public. And again

710
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 1: you said that's not necessarily something that you need to

711
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: shy away from, so I agree. Coming off really just

712
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 1: I mean, they were embarrassed on national television. I think

713
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 1: they're going to really want to sort of establish themselves

714
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 1: both offensively and defensively, and I think they come out

715
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 1: with a big performance. And again the Giants just, you know,

716
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 1: just seem like they're going through the motions at this point.

717
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: So it's really a difficult team to back, even on

718
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 1: a good day. Let's move on to the forty nine

719
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: ers at the Ravens. The Ravens are currently laying four

720
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: with a total of forty six. Now, we were recording

721
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 1: this on Monday before the Monday night game between the

722
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 1: Ravens and the Rams, so we haven't yet seen the Ravens.

723
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: But the forty nine ers, as I mentioned, incredibly impressive

724
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: against the Packers. They get healthy on offense, George Kittle

725
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 1: comes back, he looks good. Even though he's playing with

726
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 1: the apparently chip bone in his ankle.

727
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 2: The defense continues.

728
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: To be extremely strong. It's a really good game here.

729
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 1: How do you feel assuming nothing crazy happens tonight, no

730
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 1: big injuries or anything like that, how do you feel

731
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: here about the Ravens laying four in the total at

732
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 1: forty six?

733
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I will say to the Ravens Rams game is

734
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 4: going to affect this line in all likelihood. I mean,

735
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 4: if the Ravens win an impressive manner, this probably moves

736
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 4: up to four and a half. If the Rams somehow

737
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 4: win the game tonight, it probably comes down to three

738
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 4: and a half. So that's going to have an impact regardless.

739
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 4: I mean, it's always going to be appealing to be

740
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 4: taking points with the forty nine ers.

741
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 3: I think that's a pretty complete football team.

742
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 4: Offensively, maybe just average, but again, like you said, getting

743
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 4: the weapons back, especially George Kittle, which is huge for them,

744
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 4: that's going to be a better offense going forward. The

745
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 4: defense has been really good this year. But what I

746
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 4: particularly be looking at is probably the total in this game,

747
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 4: and I think I'm gonna like the over in this game.

748
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 4: I do think that the Ravens present some challenges altogether

749
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 4: for pretty much any defense that they face. Again, I

750
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 4: could change my opinion depending on how they face the

751
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 4: Rams tonight, how they show up against the Rams tonight,

752
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 4: But they're really well coached team. What I like about

753
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 4: Baltimore is that Harbaugh is very aggressive, So they go

754
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 4: forward on fourth down, which I think lends itself to overs.

755
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 4: Either the drives continue or they leave themselves with the

756
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 4: other team with good field position and the Ravens.

757
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 3: And bad field position.

758
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 4: So at forty six, I would expect a little bit

759
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 4: of money to come in on the over. That's probably

760
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 4: where I look at this git, but certainly I need

761
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 4: to reserve my judgment on the side for after I

762
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 4: see the Ravens play tonight.

763
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 1: It's a great point on Harbaugh, and there is this

764
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 1: great story about how he has hired a young, you know,

765
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 1: twenty five year old analytics guy who basically has transformed

766
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 1: him into somebody who plays the odds much more, and

767
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 1: those odds usually mean to be aggressive. So he does that,

768
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: which again, as you mentioned, does kind of lead its

769
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: way more often than not to high schoo and towards

770
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: the over.

771
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 2: I'm a little I agree.

772
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 1: With you, generally speaking, with the over at the total,

773
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for whatsoever. I feel

774
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 1: like I cannot get a great feel for the forty

775
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 1: nine ers. It's a great football team, but I feel

776
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: like every time I'm ready to completely back them, they

777
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 1: lay up a little bit of a dug like against

778
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, where they still win, but they don't really

779
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: look overly impressive. And the total, yeah, I would lean

780
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 1: towards the over as of this moment. I think both

781
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 1: teams are gonna be able to put up points, but

782
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: it's not something I feel overly confident in. Let's move

783
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,719
Speaker 1: on to the Bucks at the Jaguars. Jaguars here are

784
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: laying one. This is down from the look headline of

785
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 1: laying three and the total at forty nine. The Bucks

786
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 1: come off the big win against the Falcons, they continue

787
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: to have the same exact script, a strong passing offense,

788
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: a strong rushing defense, and no pass defense. Despite that

789
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 1: strong game against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Jaguars get totally

790
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: abused by the Titans. Nick Foles has not helped much

791
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: offensively since the switch from Gardner Minshew. So how do

792
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: you feel here about the Jaguars at home laying one?

793
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: To the Bucks with a total of forty nine.

794
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, this one's a really, really tough one for me

795
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 4: because I've actually backed the Bucks a lot this year

796
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 4: and I've lost money in doing so. But typically I

797
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 4: do like this Buccaneers team, but it's gonna be really

798
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 4: hard for me to get behind them at this price.

799
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 4: But obviously, you mean, just following the Jaguars the last

800
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 4: couple of weeks, you have to have a really sour

801
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 4: taste in your mouth the way that they've lost the

802
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 4: Titans and Colts, and they've been thoroughly beat down in

803
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 4: the process of those two games. Ultimately, though I do

804
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 4: think the number is a little bit short. I think

805
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 4: the Jaguars should be priced probably closer to two and

806
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 4: a half point favored in this game, and I ultimately think,

807
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 4: I mean, it's gonna be hard for people to stomach,

808
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 4: especially for big money, but I ultimately think that some

809
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 4: money will come in on Jacksonville in this game. I

810
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 4: think that they'll get one more shot to kind of

811
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 4: to prove themselves. But at this price range, it's gonna

812
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 4: be really tough. It is just because of how poor

813
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 4: they've looked in the last couple of weeks and like

814
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 4: you mentioned Nick Foles not really offering anything for that offense,

815
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 4: but then again, the Bucks pass defense might be the

816
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 4: cure for that. I also see the total at forty nine.

817
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 4: It's been interesting with the Bucks this year because they've

818
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 4: had a lot of high totals that have been bet down.

819
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 4: I'm talking about totals of around fifty two and a

820
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 4: half to fifty four that have come down. And conversely,

821
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 4: when they've had lower totals and games, they tend to

822
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 4: be bet up. So I think this will probably be

823
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 4: bet up. Just thinking about this in my head, I

824
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 4: do see this as a game where there's going to

825
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 4: be a lot of points. So I'd be looking at

826
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 4: Jags minus one and over forty nine in this game.

827
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 2: And I mean, the thing is the Bucks.

828
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 1: You know, the number gets met up, but I mean

829
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,840
Speaker 1: they hit the over almost every week, don't they. I Mean,

830
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 1: I don't have the number in front of me, but

831
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: I think they've been hitting the overs even when they're

832
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 1: ending up high.

833
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 3: Yeah.

834
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,720
Speaker 1: I kind of lean towards the Jaguars here. I agree

835
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 1: at three, you know, laying one, I think the Daguars

836
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 1: are going to come out of ahead here. I've also

837
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 1: backed the Bucks a number of times. I think that

838
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: they've kind of been under sold by the numbers that

839
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 1: are being out there. But in the end, it's so

840
00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: difficult to back Winston because you know at some point

841
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 1: he's going to have the backbreaking turnover. Overall, I kind

842
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: of think this is going to be one of the

843
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: games where the Jaguars at home look to take care

844
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 1: of business. I do think they win. I do like

845
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 1: them laying one at this point and then total. I

846
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 1: don't have a great feel for it. I need to

847
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 1: get into it a little bit more, but it's difficult

848
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,800
Speaker 1: to go wrong going over with the Bucks. Generally speaking,

849
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: Before we finish up with our last few games, I

850
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 1: want to mind everyone about our giveaway. It's a signed

851
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,560
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852
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,040
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853
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855
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,520
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857
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,400
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861
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864
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,359
Speaker 1: to the Rams at the Cardinals. Rams are laying three

865
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,760
Speaker 1: and a half with the over under at forty seven.

866
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 1: As we mentioned, we have not yet seen the Monday

867
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 1: night game between the Rams and the Ravens, so we

868
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 1: don't know exactly what they're going to look like. So

869
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 1: this may affect how you view the market. But the

870
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 1: Cardinals are coming off of by Kyler Murray continues to

871
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: be able to put up points, but their defense really

872
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: nothing to write home about. They don't get much pressure

873
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 1: on the quarterback and that's kind of the key to

874
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: getting in Jared Goff's head. So how do you feel

875
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: here again without seeing tonight's game? Rams laying three and

876
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 1: a half on the road, the total at forty seven.

877
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 4: It seems before tonight's game, it seems like the right

878
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 4: number to me. Three and a half at least the

879
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,399
Speaker 4: total I could potentially see coming down a little bit,

880
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 4: just because of the Rams track record away from home

881
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 4: for the most part and Golf being a pretty bad

882
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 4: quarterback away from home. But ultimately, I look at the

883
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 4: Rams and the Cardinals and it's two teams that I'm

884
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 4: pretty reluctant to back for the most part, the Rams

885
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 4: purely due to the inconsistency on offense and just Jared

886
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 4: Goff not being able to successfully move the ball on

887
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 4: a regular occasion, and the Cardinals to me seem like

888
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 4: they're somewhat outperforming their metrics for the most part. I

889
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 4: still don't know what to make of Kyler Murray. Some

890
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 4: games he looks really good, some games he doesn't. But ultimately,

891
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 4: what it comes back to for both these teams is

892
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 4: that I find them to be extremely inconsistent, and those

893
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 4: are not teams that I like to get involved on

894
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,320
Speaker 4: for the most part. So three and a half seems

895
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 4: like the right number to me right now. That's where

896
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 4: I would have opened it myself. Again, like you mentioned,

897
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 4: the Rams Ravens game will have an impact on where

898
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 4: this number goes, but ultimately I doubt I'm going to

899
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 4: have a bet on this one in Week thirteen.

900
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think the spread looks about right

901
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:35,760
Speaker 1: to me as well. I am interested in watching tonight

902
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: because for me, I kind of like the under. It

903
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 1: just look Jared Goff has not looked anything like the

904
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 1: quarterback that we saw in the beginning of last year

905
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 1: for essentially a full NFL season at this point. And

906
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 1: you know, of course the Cardinals don't have a great

907
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:50,879
Speaker 1: defense or anything like that, but I really don't think

908
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: it matters at this point. So what I really want

909
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: to see is whether or not they come out. It's

910
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 1: a tough defense with the Ravens tonight, but I want

911
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 1: to see if they come out with any sort of

912
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 1: wrinkles that they can do. They're going to find only

913
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 1: have all three of the receivers. That sounds like if

914
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 1: Robert Woods plays and Brandon Cooks looks to be back

915
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 1: from the concussion. But it's really about their offensive line,

916
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 1: which is just a bunch of no names at this

917
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 1: point because they've been so decimated there. And with the

918
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 1: Cardinals look, I like Murray as a player, but you know,

919
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 1: I feel like they script the beginning for him. He

920
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 1: looks good, and after that he's just kind of you know,

921
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 1: running around and trying to figure it out, and he's

922
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: so talented that he's often able to. But I really

923
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 1: like the Rams defense since they've added Jalen Ramsey. So

924
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,439
Speaker 1: for me, with the total at forty seven, I kind

925
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 1: of lean towards the under by I admit that I

926
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: want to see what the Rams look like off of

927
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 1: bye tonight against a tough defense in the Raid in

928
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Let's move on here to the Raiders at

929
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Chiefs here are now laying nine and a half.

930
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 1: Look headline was ten, so it's dound half a point.

931
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:42,879
Speaker 1: The over under is fifty one and a half and

932
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: the total was fifty four and a half with the lookhadline,

933
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 1: so it's certainly come down from there. Just as we

934
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, terrible loss here for the Raiders against the Jets,

935
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 1: they just did not show up. They generally struggle at

936
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 1: East Derek Carr doesn't usually play all that well in

937
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: the cold. They are also down now Hunter renfro who

938
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 1: injured his ribs and I believe it's going to miss

939
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. Now the Chiefs are coming

940
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 1: off a bye, they're home, They're probably going to be

941
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 1: pretty healthy overall. So it's a large number. But how

942
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: do you feel here in indivisional game Chiefs in Arrowhead

943
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 1: laying nine and a half with the total at fifty

944
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 1: one and a half, I think.

945
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 4: You'll probably see a little bit of money come in

946
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 4: on Oakland. I don't think there's enough I mean of

947
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 4: a discrepancy between these two teams. I still think the

948
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 4: Raiders are an above average team in the NFL. And

949
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 4: I know that they got blown out last week and

950
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 4: they looked really bad in the process, and they're kind

951
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 4: of coming down to earth. But I still think they're

952
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 4: above average team. So certainly the points are tempting here. Obviously,

953
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 4: you'd much prefer a plus ten and a plus nine

954
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 4: and a half, with I mean ten being I don't

955
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 4: want to say a true key number, but I mean

956
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:43,240
Speaker 4: it's a valuable number for the most part. The total

957
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 4: is very interesting to me because, like you mentioned, look

958
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 4: ahead at fifty four and a half, I actually think

959
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 4: this number opened at fifty four and a half and

960
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 4: has been bet down. I think that's probably gone a

961
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 4: little bit too far. If I'm being honest, I think

962
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 4: you'd see some buy back up to round the fifty

963
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 4: two to fifty two and a half range, especially with

964
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 4: the Chiefs coming off of bye. I mean, I'm going

965
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 4: to be really surprised if the Chiefs don't score thirty

966
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 4: in this game, and I think the Raiders offense can

967
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 4: keep up. So personally, I think this total has been

968
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 4: bet down too much. If I'm looking at the game

969
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 4: from a side perspective, I'd somewhat mean to the Raiders,

970
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 4: but I think I'd prefer the over at fifty one

971
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 4: right now.

972
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you that the over is what

973
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 1: stands out to me. I feel like, you know, there's

974
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: too many you know, negative implications being drawn from you know,

975
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: the way the Chiefs didn't really you know, put up

976
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,760
Speaker 1: a dominant offensive performance in Mexico City against the Charters.

977
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: But of course, not only did you have the thin air,

978
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 1: which certainly affects things, but you didn't have Tyreek Hill

979
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 1: in that game. And he reportedly is recovering from his

980
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 1: hamstring injury, so he's playing well. So if everyone is

981
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 1: there at this point, I really think that he is

982
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: going to be you know, the team as a whole

983
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:45,800
Speaker 1: is going to put up a big number offensively. I

984
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 1: agree with you that thirty points seems like it's going

985
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 1: to be something that they can easily get to.

986
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 2: So I agree with you with.

987
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 1: The total coming down from fifty four and a half

988
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 1: to fifty one and a half. I agree that I

989
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 1: like the over Let's move on to the Chargers at

990
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,399
Speaker 1: the Broncos. Chargers here laying two and a half. Now,

991
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 1: this was a look head line of a pickum, so

992
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 1: it's certainly moved in favor of the charters. The total

993
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 1: at thirty eight and a half. The Broncos surprise the

994
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: Chargers by beating them in Los Angeles last time, but

995
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 1: Brandon Allen just eighty two yards passing against the Bills

996
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 1: on Sunday. It's not a strong offense. The defense still

997
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:19,400
Speaker 1: generally hangs in there, but they're not quite as dominant

998
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 1: as they have been in past years. Meanwhile, the Chargers

999
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 1: are charging. If Philip Rivers could run a two minute drill,

1000
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: they'd probably be a five hundred team by now. But

1001
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 1: you know they've got They've been injured on both sides

1002
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 1: of the ball. The offense just kind of looks out

1003
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 1: of sync. I don't know whether or not Rivers is

1004
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: just reaching that point in his career. He's thirty seven

1005
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: years old, where it's starting to go downhill. So how

1006
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 1: do you feel here about the Chargers laying two and

1007
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 1: a half in Denver with the total low total of

1008
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 1: thirty eight and a half.

1009
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, this one's a really tough one for me because

1010
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,400
Speaker 4: if you had asked me this a week ago, I

1011
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,479
Speaker 4: would have loved the Broncos at plus two and a half.

1012
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 4: But obviously what you saw out to Brandon Allen this

1013
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 4: week was just a deplorable performance.

1014
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:56,799
Speaker 3: And I mean he just doesn't have it. I mean,

1015
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 3: he's not an.

1016
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 4: NFL quarterback, He's not an NFL calendar quarterback in a

1017
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 4: league that is very quarterback driven. That's obviously a challenge.

1018
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 4: But is there enough separating the Broncos, even with Brandon

1019
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:10,879
Speaker 4: Allen at quarterback, to be two and a half point

1020
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 4: underdogs at home to the Chargers. I mean, would they

1021
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 4: be catching more than a touchdown if they were on

1022
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 4: the road here?

1023
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 3: I doubt it, especially when you.

1024
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 4: Consider that they just closed as a three and a

1025
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 4: half point underdog at Buffalo a week ago. So it's

1026
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 4: tough because you don't want to put too much stock

1027
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 4: into one week, but it's really hard. Ultimately, I think

1028
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 4: you might see some more Chargers money bring this up

1029
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 4: to three before some Sharps get bring this number back

1030
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,359
Speaker 4: down to two and a half. I don't see it

1031
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 4: moving a whole lot, but if it does move a

1032
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 4: whole lot, it's probably going to be to the Broncos,

1033
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 4: who have been a pretty you know, sharps have been

1034
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 4: willing to back them this year because they've had so

1035
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,839
Speaker 4: many close losses. I think there was four games going

1036
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 4: into last week where they've lost by a combined ten points,

1037
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 4: so easily could be a team that's above five hundred

1038
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 4: right now. Instead they're three to eight. When you look

1039
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,839
Speaker 4: at DVOA, there's still ahead of the Chargers this year,

1040
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:04,279
Speaker 4: So ultimately, I think you'd be more likely to see

1041
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 4: people back back the Broncos than not, and then depending

1042
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 4: on the wind. I know thirty eight and a half

1043
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 4: is a low total, but based on what we've seen

1044
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 4: under these two offenses recently, we'll probably see some support

1045
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:15,760
Speaker 4: for the under in this game as well.

1046
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a low one, but I agree that if

1047
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 1: there's going to be support one way or another, I

1048
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,879
Speaker 1: think more money is going to come in on the under.

1049
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 1: This is not a game that I have a great

1050
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: feel for man, I mean, but you know, both teams look.

1051
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 2: I like the.

1052
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 1: Broncos actually this week against Buffalo, I for pretty much

1053
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 1: all the reasons that you say. They're certainly still competing

1054
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: even though they're way out of playoff contention, But in

1055
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 1: the end, they just never seem to be able to

1056
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 1: close the door. Now, they weren't close in Buffalo this week.

1057
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 1: But yeah, like you said, they easily could have been

1058
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 1: a five hundred team had some things broken differently. But

1059
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 1: the charters really again, you know, it's just it's not

1060
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: happening right now for them, and when they have a

1061
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 1: chance to put it away, they're not able to do it.

1062
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:54,919
Speaker 1: So it's not a game that I feel real good about.

1063
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: If anything, I agree despite the total, I kind of

1064
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 1: like the under at thirty and a half. Let's move

1065
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 1: on to the Pats. At the Texans. Patriots here are

1066
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 1: laying three and the over under at forty four and

1067
00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 1: a half. The Patriots continue to win despite looking lackluster offensively.

1068
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 1: They're also pretty beat up. They were down Mohammed Sanu

1069
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 1: and Philip dore Set this past week. I don't know

1070
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 1: if they're going to play necessarily. I haven't seen the

1071
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: practice sports yet their defense though, look, it remains outstanding.

1072
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: You know, it's not quite as dominant as it looks

1073
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 1: in that long run against subpar teams early in the season,

1074
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 1: but they certainly continue to put up quality, quality efforts. Meanwhile,

1075
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: the Texans, they win against the Colts in the game

1076
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 1: that was essentially must win on Thursday, but they are

1077
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,760
Speaker 1: far from impressive on either side of the ball.

1078
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 2: You can throw on them pretty easily.

1079
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson, his play is kind of sporadic, as he's

1080
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:45,359
Speaker 1: running for his life often. So how do you feel

1081
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 1: here about the Pats laying three and the over under

1082
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 1: a forty four and a half.

1083
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 4: It's a tough one because this one feels a lot

1084
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,959
Speaker 4: like Patriots Ravens from a few weeks ago in terms

1085
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 4: of the way that it's set up. The Texans have

1086
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 4: a little bit of extra rest coming into this game.

1087
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:03,360
Speaker 4: The only difference between the Patriots Ravens and Patriots Texans

1088
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 4: is that the Ravens actually have a very good coach

1089
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 4: and the Texans don't. And that's what I really struggle

1090
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 4: with in this game. It's why I struggle to back

1091
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 4: Dallas even though they cover the spread against New England.

1092
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 4: This week is because this is Bill Belichick against Bill

1093
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 4: O'Brien and that's a huge coach coaching mismatch. So I

1094
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 4: think you're going to see this bounce around between three

1095
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 4: and three and a half all week long. I think

1096
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 4: you'll see sharp support on both sides of this game.

1097
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:25,880
Speaker 3: I really do.

1098
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 4: But it's really tough to bet against the Patriots when

1099
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,440
Speaker 4: you don't like the opposing coach when you're not getting

1100
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 4: a big number. Now, granted, they don't look like the

1101
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 4: Patriots of the year's pass especially offensively, So this is

1102
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 4: what I think you're going to see some market support

1103
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 4: on the under here, and that's been pretty consistent with

1104
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 4: the Patriots over the last four to six weeks here.

1105
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,400
Speaker 4: And I know the total will be forty five be

1106
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 4: considered low for the Texans, who typically have a pretty

1107
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 4: good offense, but even they've been struggling offensively lately, struggled

1108
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 4: to put away the Colts last week as well, So

1109
00:45:57,719 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 4: I think you're going to see this total come down

1110
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 4: potentially to forty four, which is a key number in

1111
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,439
Speaker 4: NFL totals. And if I was looking to back this game,

1112
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 4: that's what I would like. Under forty five.

1113
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you mentioned that the total is going

1114
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 1: to be bouncing back and forth. Look the if you

1115
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,360
Speaker 1: look at betting Bros dot Com and you have you know,

1116
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: maybe eight or nine sports book listed there, you know,

1117
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 1: it's like five of them are at minus three and

1118
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 1: five of them are at minus three and a half,

1119
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,239
Speaker 1: So it is probably going to be bouncing around there.

1120
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 1: I do expect the Patriots to win this game, if

1121
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 1: for no other reason then exactly what you said. It's

1122
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 1: a coaching mismatch for sure. And realistically, if the Patriots

1123
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 1: get healthy and they get a little bit more in

1124
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: the receiver, I do think you know, Brady does not

1125
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,919
Speaker 1: looked good. The team as a whole does not look good.

1126
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 2: You know, the.

1127
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 1: Weather in New England was terrible yesterday against the Cowboys.

1128
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 1: It's really tough to take anything from that. I think

1129
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 1: they are going to be able to come up with

1130
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 1: some wrinkles. And again the Texans, you know, it's not

1131
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 1: like JJ Watt was doing that much this season, but

1132
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 1: certainly defensively you can really exploit them.

1133
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 2: So I do expect the Pats to be able to

1134
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 2: at least win by three.

1135
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 1: If it gets above the key number, I'm gonna get

1136
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:03,919
Speaker 1: a little nervous about it, but overall I'd lean towards

1137
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 1: the Patriots on the spread. Let's move on to the

1138
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,839
Speaker 1: final game, the Monday night game, the Vikings at the Seahawks.

1139
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 1: Currently the Seahawks laying two and a half and the

1140
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 1: total at forty nine's big game here. The Seahawks continue

1141
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 1: to basically outperform all models and the talent they have

1142
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:19,359
Speaker 1: on their team, and they just pretty much win each

1143
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 1: and every week. They win a sloppy game against the

1144
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 1: Eagles and bad weather even though they were down to

1145
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 1: gadevan Clowney, they win nonetheless. Meanwhile, the Vikings are impressive

1146
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:30,280
Speaker 1: of late. They have that big comeback win against the Broncos.

1147
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 1: They should get Adam Thielen back. The defense is not

1148
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 1: anything to write home about, particularly the pass defense at

1149
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 1: this point. But how do you feel here the Vikings

1150
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: at the Seahawks on Monday Night Seahawks laying two and

1151
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 1: a half with the pretty high total as has often

1152
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 1: been the case with Seahawks here at forty nine.

1153
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is again just a scenario where

1154
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:51,800
Speaker 4: depending on the number, you'll have support on either side.

1155
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 4: So at two and a half you probably see the

1156
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 4: Seahawks get bought up a bit or people snatch those

1157
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 4: two and a half, even if it's a little bit

1158
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 4: more big on those I think three. Certainly you'll see

1159
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 4: people want to back the Vikings, and it's pretty easy

1160
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:05,800
Speaker 4: to make a case for both of these teams here. Obviously,

1161
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 4: if you're making a case for a Seahawks you would

1162
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 4: allude to Kirk cousins historical performance against good teams. I'm

1163
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 4: not sure how much stock I put into that, because

1164
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 4: I think it's a little bit overblown. But obviously if

1165
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 4: you're looking at the Vikings, you can point to a

1166
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 4: lot of advanced metrics that show that the Seahawks are

1167
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 4: probably a little bit overrated as well. Personally, I think

1168
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,399
Speaker 4: this total is low at forty nine. I do think

1169
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 4: the Vikings can move the ball on the Seahawks defense.

1170
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 4: I think the Seahawks having such a good defensive performance

1171
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:35,360
Speaker 4: against the Eagles has really kind of misled people a

1172
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 4: little bit because Carson Wentz missed a ton of throws

1173
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 4: in that game looked really, really horrible. The Seahawks still

1174
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 4: don't have much of a pass rush. We'll see the

1175
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,919
Speaker 4: status of Jadavian Clowney, but if he's out, that's even

1176
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 4: that's music to Kirk Cousins ears because I just don't

1177
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 4: think the Seahawks are a great defense overall. So personally,

1178
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 4: I think this total is going to get bet up.

1179
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 4: I think by game time you could see it in

1180
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 4: the fifties. And I see both these teams scoring points.

1181
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 4: It's one of those where I've you know, from a

1182
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 4: numbers perspective, I do like the over, but also just

1183
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:06,000
Speaker 4: thinking about it subjectively, I think there's going to be

1184
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 4: plenty of points in this game.

1185
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. I don't like the spread. I

1186
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 1: just you know, I think the Vikings are a better team.

1187
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:15,720
Speaker 1: But you know, Wilson really is playing at an MVP

1188
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,439
Speaker 1: level right now. It's not you know, on Monday night

1189
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: in that building. It's not really a case where I'd

1190
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 1: want to bet against the Seahawks at this point. But

1191
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 1: the total one hundred percent agree. Both these teams are

1192
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 1: you know, they have the reputation of having these great defenses,

1193
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 1: but in the end, they're really both exploitable and I

1194
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 1: think both offenses.

1195
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:36,399
Speaker 2: Look.

1196
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 1: I think since the Vikings have kind of opened it

1197
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 1: up a bit offensively here, and you know they have

1198
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,399
Speaker 1: the dominant run game with Dalvin Cook, but since they've

1199
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: opened it up, especially with Adam Thielen coming back, I

1200
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:47,319
Speaker 1: think they're really going to be able to put up

1201
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,879
Speaker 1: a lot of points here. And the Seahawks can as well.

1202
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 1: You know, they have two solid running backs, and again

1203
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 1: Wilson is just basically able to do whatever he wants.

1204
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 1: So I agree with you completely. If you like the total,

1205
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 1: which I do, which sounds like Rob does, and I

1206
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:02,320
Speaker 1: think getting in on it now before it starts creeping

1207
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 1: up past fifty is probably a good idea. Well, that's

1208
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 1: going to do it for today's show. Rob, It was

1209
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 1: really great having you on. I thought you brought a

1210
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: lot of exceptional insight into the game, and you use

1211
00:50:12,120 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 1: the word deplorable twice, which I think is really an

1212
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 1: underused word in our vernacular. So and I think they

1213
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:22,720
Speaker 1: were both apped as one of them was to describe

1214
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 1: Brandon Allen, so absolutely right on. Remind everybody where they

1215
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your work.

1216
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, just follow me on Twitter at rob Azzola.

1217
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 4: I mean, if you have betting related questions, my direct

1218
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 4: messages or dms are open on Twitter, so you know

1219
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 4: I try to answer.

1220
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 3: As many of those as possible. So yeah, that's it.

1221
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 4: I mean, I have nothing to promote aside from my

1222
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:46,280
Speaker 4: Twitter account, but certainly I love talking sports in general,

1223
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 4: and I love connecting with other people who talk sports.

1224
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you see Rob's Twitter account, you'll see him

1225
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:54,360
Speaker 1: from when he was on periscopy, a lot of great insights,

1226
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 1: so he's a great follow.

1227
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 3: Rob.

1228
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 2: Really appreciate you coming on. I hope we can do

1229
00:50:57,239 --> 00:50:57,880
Speaker 2: it again sometime.

1230
00:50:58,080 --> 00:50:59,239
Speaker 3: Sounds good. Thanks for having me.

1231
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 1: Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM.

1232
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 1: Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app and use

1233
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,399
Speaker 1: the promo code Harris to get your risk free first

1234
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 1: wager of up to five hundred dollars, and don't forget

1235
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 1: to rate and review the podcast and send the screenshot

1236
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 1: of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com for

1237
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:17,120
Speaker 1: your chance to an assigned Odell Beckham Junior Brown's helmet.

1238
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:19,359
Speaker 1: We will be back later this week, earlier than usual

1239
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 1: because of Thanksgiving. Given some our best bets for week thirteen,

1240
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:50,400
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you them.