WEBVTT - Will Trump Drag The United States Into WAR With Iran? 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:04.120 Well, good Wednesday. We are sitting here a bit in limbo. 0:00:04.240 --> 0:00:07.600 As I take this that no other American president would 0:00:07.640 --> 0:00:09.879 have put the country in, let alone the world, then 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:15.560 there's no other American president shares his indecisiveness as publicly 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.840 as Donald Trump does, and right now on Iran he 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:22.520 has in many You know, there's a part of me 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:27.880 that appreciates the transparency of the indecisiveness. I mean, we 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:31.560 get a front row seat at finding out, Oh, somebody 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:34.159 whispered something new in his ear. Because he's now sharing this, 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:37.479 he appears to be leaning this way. I mean, we 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:42.400 know President Trump is notorious for buying into the last 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:45.800 best argument that somebody makes to him on any given 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:48.720 time when it comes to what to do here with Iran. 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:52.400 There is a lot of competing voices that are in 0:00:52.400 --> 0:00:54.000 his head, and I think that is you know, if 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:57.200 you want to know why, it's unclear. 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:59.440 Where where his head is. 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:03.120 Though, Boy, it feels like there is a drumbeat towards action, 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:07.760 towards some sort of military action that the Americans may 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:12.160 engage in with the Israelis. But the fact that it 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:17.160 is not clear, I do think is a reminder that this, 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:23.120 particularly when it comes to foreign policy and international engagement, 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.160 there's a real divide. I mean, I think there's a 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:27.319 bigger divide in the Republican Party on this stuff than 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:30.959 there is in the Democratic Party. There's certainly a divide 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:35.440 in the Democratic Party on Israel, but I don't think 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:37.920 there's near the amount of divide, for instance, when it 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:41.560 comes to Ukraine or when it comes to even Iran, 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:45.319 although there's certainly I think that the divide on Iran 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:49.640 is whether this is all whether military action should be 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:52.440 on the table or not. There isn't a disagreement, and frankly, 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:54.880 there's not a disagreement on the Republican side that you know, 0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:57.520 everything needs to be done to stop or you know, 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:00.920 Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And if Iran looks 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:03.960 around the world, there really isn't an incentive to stop 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:05.120 getting a nuclear weapon. 0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:06.320 Right, if you. 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:10.400 Are thought of to have one, you get left alone 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:12.680 in ways that you wouldn't get left alone if you 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:20.160 didn't have one. Right, Ask Libya, or ask Pakistan, or 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:25.079 ask Syria, or ask North Korea. Where am I going here? 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:25.359 Right? 0:02:25.720 --> 0:02:30.080 Syria and Libya have been have had regime change, no 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:33.880 nuclear weapons. North Korea, there's a lot of people wishing 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:38.120 there could be regime change hasn't happened Iran. Obviously, I 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:43.240 think it's leaders know that getting you know, a nuclear 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:48.520 weapon probably would make it that much harder for anybody. 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:49.120 To topple that regime. 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:55.520 So we can't sit here and not acknowledge that fact. Okay, 0:02:55.320 --> 0:03:00.679 that that it is. It's one of these we as 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:05.400 the one of the nuclear powers of the world, certainly 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:09.360 claim we don't want proliferation, and yet countries that have 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:13.680 a nuclear weapons seem to have a bit more security 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:18.360 from outside from outsiders than those that do not. So 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:21.520 if you're one of those folks, you know this is 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.240 we have not figured out an incentive not to have 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:28.760 nuclear weapons and sort of the global order, if you will. Right, 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:31.440 Libya is one of the great examples that Afi was 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:36.080 convinced to stand down on any sort of ambition to 0:03:36.120 --> 0:03:40.240 go nuclear and he was out of power within how long. Right, 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:44.160 So that is one of those uncomfortable examples that does 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:48.400 make this an extra difficult situation, which is why diplomacy 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:52.040 hasn't been hasn't always been the best answer, or hasn't 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:53.720 worked yet. I don't want to say it's not the 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:56.320 best answer I think diplomacy that works is always a 0:03:56.320 --> 0:04:01.640 better answer than some sort of military intervention. But we're 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:06.680 in this limbo because it is because I do think 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:12.640 you have President Trump, who frankly got traction in the 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:17.600 Republican Party by going against the Bush doctrine, right, going 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:20.040 against the orthodoctory. In fact, it wasn't that long ago 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.880 that a President Trump went to Saudi Arabia to say 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:25.799 that the United States was no longer going to lecture 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:30.159 other countries on their values that you know, partnerships for partnerships. 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:34.800 So how does then that apply to Iran? Right on 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:37.400 that front? Are we going to be selective about it? 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:42.600 We obviously what Donald Trump said in Saudi Arabia, which 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:45.040 was meant for the audience and the Gulf States where 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:48.080 you've had others, including Joe Biden and Barack Obama, who've 0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:52.880 been uncomfortable with the values that Saudi Arabia and Qatar 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:55.720 and the UAE promote or don't promote if you will, 0:04:56.920 --> 0:04:59.560 and how much we want to be in business or 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:00.760 in bed with them. 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:02.280 And at the same time. 0:05:02.320 --> 0:05:07.159 So either do you use the power of America to 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:10.880 spread American values or not? And there was basically a 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:14.040 bipartisan consensus. You know, That's why we have things like 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:16.160 Voice of America. That's why we have things like Radio 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:18.680 for Europe or Radio Martis right that there was this 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:22.400 sense that no America needs to be a beacon for freedom, 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:25.919 a beacon for democracy, and when it's possible to spread it, 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:29.359 and when it's possible to create relationships that encourage it, 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:36.000 like trade relationships for instance. But on what But this 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:39.000 is where I think that at any time anybody wants 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:41.760 to engage in what I would call real politique, right, 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:43.800 which is you got to sort of you deal with 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:45.880 the countries that you have, not the countries that you want. 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:48.640 You have the diplomacy that you have, not the diplomacy 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:51.640 that you want, But we have this selective outrage. Like 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:55.960 you know, for years, Republicans have treated China differently than 0:05:55.960 --> 0:06:00.599 they've treated Cuba. Right, Cuba's been punished because it's to punish, 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:04.599 China hasn't because it's harder to punish. And yet arguably 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:08.480 they've both committed the same some of the same crimes 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:11.080 against you know, human rights violations that that we have 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:18.080 frowned upon. So it I do think that candidate Donald 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:21.080 Trump would obviously have said he is not going to 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:26.239 go off and and and go down this road. But look, 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:29.640 there's there is an opportunity. And I understand some that 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:32.000 are advising him sit there and say, look, Iron's never 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:36.800 been this week. Right, hes Belah has been nearly decapitated, 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:39.760 Hamas is on the run, the Hutis have stood down. 0:06:39.839 --> 0:06:43.400 All of the Iranian proxies that gave Iran sort of 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:48.280 extra strength in that region are in bad shape. Right, 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:54.000 Israel has done since October seventh, has done a remarkable 0:06:54.080 --> 0:07:00.719 job in decapitating Hesbelah and certainly weakening Hamas, and that 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:04.520 has had an indirect effect on Iran. Iran has always 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:07.280 been better at the asymmetric battle field than it is 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:10.400 in conventional warfare. And I think we're about to find out. 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:14.360 This feels like it's not really that close to a call. 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:18.000 Iran is definitely taking more damage than Israel is here, 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:22.880 but Israel cannot eradicate Iran's nuclear program without the help 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:25.720 of the United States. Now, this is where I think 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:28.240 there's a lot of things that get tricky here for 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:32.280 the president. If he goes ahead, if he does go 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:35.400 ahead and do this, well, if number one, you better succeed. 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:38.480 You got to wipe out the nuclear program. Right, there's 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.760 no pin prick here. You do or you not do. 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:45.040 I don't think you can half go in. And we 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:47.800 know Donald Trump likes to preserve every possible option, and 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:50.560 he almost wants to know. He wants to be able, 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:53.680 even at the last minute, be able to move from 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:54.960 one position. 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:55.320 To the other. 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:58.440 Right now, he seemed to be wanting to negotiate and 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:02.040 negotiate and negotiate. Israel's initial attack seemed to be successful. 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:05.080 Suddenly he was jumping in front of that parade. Boy, 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:07.600 you know, we did a great job. We really helped them. 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:11.600 And suddenly he's talking in the Royal We But look, 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:14.720 he does have a Congress problem. I'd say they call 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:18.720 it a problem, not a confrontation coming because I don't 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:22.960 think this Congress is going to confront this president on 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:25.320 what could be an abuse of the War Powers Act 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:27.240 if he does act this quickly. 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:29.040 I mean it is. 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:35.760 I don't think the current au m F, which is 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:38.960 still active, which still sits out there, which still gives 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:44.880 sort of some ambiguous power to the president to essentially 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:49.840 conduct a military strike and claim it's part of the 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:52.960 global war on terror, right, which is again go read 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:57.400 that original AUMF, which is countryless, right, doesn't really. It 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:04.240 was written to have maximum ambiguity, to essentially give flexibility. 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:06.199 At the time, the thought was these terrorists could be 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:09.800 anywhere and you couldn't you couldn't identify a single country 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:14.000 or things like that. But obviously this the the definition 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:18.000 of it is so widened that it does seem to 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:22.080 make the power that Congress supposedly handed over to the 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:28.040 executive branch on this uh, probably too much and probably 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:31.560 something that needs to represented. But there's yet to be 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:35.880 an agreement on how to do this. There's a couple attempts. 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:42.040 You're going to see some people introduce some acts, you 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.440 know something and congre but it's not going to go anywhere. 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:47.720 If he wants to do this, there'll be a majority 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:52.920 in Congress, mostly Republicans, but some Democrats that support if 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:57.840 it's support a strike if it's limited. But here's the thing. 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:01.679 We already have a situation that has a little bit 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:05.560 of a little bit of rhyming with the Iraq debacle. 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:10.040 We go into Iraq based on faulty intelligence about weapons 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:14.319 of mass destruction. The question about how soon is Iran going, 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:18.360 how close is Iran to a nuclear weapon is definitely 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:23.040 up for debate. The Israeli intelligence and the American side. 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:25.360 They have the same set of facts and they've come 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:26.560 to different conclusions. 0:10:26.640 --> 0:10:26.840 Right. 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:31.199 Israel believes Iran as much closer than the US government believes. 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:33.920 So if Donald Trump goes down this road with Israel, 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:38.400 he's essentially buying into the assessment of the Israeli intelligence 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:44.280 rather than the assessment of the American intelligence agencies. Right 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:47.640 tells the Gabbard went on Congress and said said as much. 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:51.880 That is that is huge risk. 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:57.240 Right, while the American intelligence communities credibility is certainly going 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:00.160 to be called into question by many because of what 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:04.319 happened with a rock, perhaps the same you know, how 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:08.560 you know? Is it possible Israel's intelligence is seeing what 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:11.480 it wants to see because they're looking for an They're 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:13.880 trying to confirm a belief they already have. Right, how 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:18.559 much of confirmation bias is there? So the point is 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:24.400 is if he decides to accept the intelligence from the 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:30.600 Israelis on this, he is that is a risk. That's 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:35.160 how George W. Bush based is not on a Israeli intelligence, 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:38.520 but on the intelligence of multiple countries, including our own 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:41.679 and these were assessments that were made by our intelligence agencies, 0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:48.079 and they were wrong. There's always a risk they're wrong. 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:51.360 There's also a risk that, no matter how powerful these 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:54.680 bunk or buster bombs are, what if it doesn't work. 0:11:55.800 --> 0:12:01.360 What if you've created a situation where you fail to 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:06.840 eradicate the nuclear program, they kind of survive the regime 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:14.000 and they end up regrouping, or you do complete regime change. 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:17.680 Who's rebuilding Iran? Is America going to be at the 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:20.840 forefront of rebuilding Iran? Are we in the nation building business? 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:24.640 If you follow through on regime change, which clearly the 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:28.600 president is. He's it's almost like he's toying with it 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:31.320 with his with his tweets of saying, we know where 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:36.240 you are, Kamani, but we're not going to go after 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:43.000 you yet, right, so certainly wants to a public threat there. Obviously, 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:46.480 this is no way to conduct international form policy. 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:47.160 This is no way. 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:50.360 I mean, it comes across like a reality TV show, 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.439 But that's probably the best way to understand. 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:55.920 Understand what Donald Trump is up to. 0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:00.679 He may end up zagging because he you know, he 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:05.560 doesn't want the Taco meme to take hold on foreign policy. 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:09.640 You know, he's talking up this tough talk against Iran. 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:12.560 Is he doing it for negotiating purposes or is he 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:16.440 doing it in the run up to actually be a part. 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:17.200 Of this attack. 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:22.160 If he doesn't do it, does he develop this reputation 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.320 for being all bark and no bite. We know that 0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:28.640 he's very sensitive to sort of simplistic narratives like that. 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:32.120 So I'm almost fearful of bringing up the simplistic narrative 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:34.800 because no one wants to see a decision made by 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.679 a president simply because he fears a narrative that will 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:43.560 develop if he doesn't go a certain way. But look, 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.959 I'm not going to I'm very hesitant to predict too 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:52.559 much here because of because it's Donald Trump number one, 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:59.079 number two. I do think there are enough people who 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:02.360 are at least warning him that, hey, this stuff is 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:05.319 never it's never as easy as you think. 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:06.080 You know. 0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:08.280 I almost think that too many people, you know, I 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:10.760 think about what I grew up, you know. I remember 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:14.800 watching Ronald Reagan address the nation after war planes went 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:18.080 to Libya and it was a pretty clean strike. And 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:21.720 we did the Grenada thing and it seemed pretty easy, right, 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.600 and even the first Iraq war, and I do think 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:29.720 there was a sort of a generation of national security 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:34.560 folks who thought, hey this, you know, these little surgical 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:38.520 strikes can work. That sort of a police force type 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:42.440 military can work. That all worked until it didn't with Iraq, right, 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:48.120 That all worked until it didn't with Afghanistan. Iran is 0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:52.320 not Grenada, Iran is not Libya, and it. 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.200 Is it is. 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:58.000 There's every chance this is a bigger can of worms 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:04.600 if we engage. But of course, you know, leaving Israel 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:08.120 on its own could also create problems here. So look, 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:12.080 there's no easy answers. I will I don't think we 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:16.600 know the backstory fully. How much did Netanyahu jam Trump here, 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:21.880 you know? Or was Trump really going along the whole 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:27.080 time with with maximum pressure and using playing good cop 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:32.040 bad cop with Babie. But it does feel as if 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:35.280 Trump's been being he is backed into a corner here. 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:41.000 Israel has had initial success. There's a window of opportunity 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.320 if you do believe it's doable. There is a window 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:48.600 of opportunity, and there's risk of him not taking advantage 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:52.240 of this window opportunity. And there's risk if they go 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.360 about it the wrong way, And there's risk even if 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:57.920 they succeed So look, this is not an easy decision. 0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:01.840 Presidential decisions no matter who's behind that desk. If they 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:05.160 were easy, they wouldn't I remember hearing this from plenty 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:08.400 of previous presidents. If the decisions were easy, they would 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:12.880 have been decided upon before they got to the president's desk. 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:16.480 You do get a sense that everybody around him is 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:21.480 sort of has their own opinion but is afraid of 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.960 owning it, and so they're all just sort of whispering 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:29.600 in his ear. And he does, in this case, have 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:36.040 a team of rivals articulating different positions. So, however you 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:39.400 view President Trump and his leadership style here, I think 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:44.880 is atrocious. You should it should make you feel better 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.560 that they're at least diverse voices in that room, in 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:55.680 that in the situation room, so that all possibilities are 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:58.480 being laid out for him. In that sense, right, that 0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:01.840 is much better than having group. So look, it is 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:05.639 I can't believe this is how we're all watching, waiting 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:08.720 for the tweet that either announces or pulls back, which 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:10.880 is kind of ridiculous. This is no way to run 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:12.960 a globe. This is no way the leader of the 0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:17.080 free world should behave. But I'm trying to find a 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:21.080 few green shoots here, and the tallest green shoot is 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:23.879 the fact that at least there's a diversity of voices 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:29.760 in that room articulating different different ways to go about 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:37.119 this problem. So we shall see as the President might 0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:38.919 tweet himself. Stay tuned. 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:43.000 But it's a it. 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:47.639 Sometimes you can't believe, you know, I can't tell you 0:17:47.720 --> 0:17:50.760 how many times jokes were cracked, you know, before he 0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:54.280 actually became president. Boy, you know, he'll make war decisions 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:56.640 on a tweet and he'll do this, and it all 0:17:56.720 --> 0:18:00.600 is actually happening, and it's become weirdly normalized that we 0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:05.160 all now kind of expect and we're waiting here, and sadly, 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:08.080 I think Donald Trump loves this nothing more than any 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:12.520 that we're all have no choice but to wait to 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:16.359 see what the former host of The Apprentice is going 0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:20.040 to decide who gets voted off who doesn't. And in 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:24.040 that sense, that's kind of an absurd way that America 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:25.240 is representing. 0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:25.800 Itself around the world. 0:18:26.640 --> 0:18:29.600 But elections have consequences, and. 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:30.480 Here we are. 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:45.520 Speaking of elections. Tuesday was one of my favorite sayings. 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:49.119 If it's Tuesday, somebody's voting somewhere. Well, that's somewhere was 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:53.600 where I reside, the old dominion, the Great Commonwealth of Virginia, 0:18:54.600 --> 0:19:00.560 where we do have our official nominees for governor. Although 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.080 I think we already knew who the nominees were going 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:08.440 to be. Wins Earl Sears the lieutenant governor, Republican Abigail 0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:13.080 Spanberger the Democratic nominee, former congresswoman from that swing district 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:17.320 that sort of resides in between Richmond and the northern 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:24.520 Virginia suburbs. Let's be honest, this is a if Democrats 0:19:24.600 --> 0:19:29.520 don't win Virginia fairly handily based on the anger of 0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:34.879 federal workers doze frankly recent history right where seven of 0:19:34.880 --> 0:19:37.800 the last eight Virginia elections went the exact opposite of 0:19:37.840 --> 0:19:42.080 the previous presidential election. All of the signs are pointing 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:45.199 to a Democratic victory. I think the question is is 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:50.560 it a route right? Is it a clean sweep? For 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:53.320 the most part, it is rare for Virginia. They have 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:58.600 three statewide held, state wide elected state offices governor, lieutenant governor, 0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:04.359 and Attorney general. It is rare for the party that 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.800 wins the governorship not to be able to also win 0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:10.560 at least one, if not both of the other two 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:15.600 down ballot statewide races we saw there has been We've 0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:18.600 had previously, we had a Republican governor with a Democratic 0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:23.080 attorney general. But for the most part, usually it's usually 0:20:23.160 --> 0:20:27.600 a clean sweep. There's barely a distinction usually between whatever 0:20:27.640 --> 0:20:30.639 the gubernatorial races. Only if there is some sort of 0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:34.240 unique set of circumstances with a lieutenant governor candidate or 0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:37.400 an AG candidate, do you see it any differently? The 0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:41.080 most interesting aspect of the Virginia gubernatorial race is that 0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:43.680 Virginia's going to elect its first woman governor, because both 0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:47.960 parties have women as their nominees. The first Virginia race 0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:50.960 I covered professionally was Virginia Governor in nineteen ninety three. 0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:54.480 The Democratic nominee was the sitting Attorney General, Mary su Terry, 0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:58.359 and she was trying to make history replacing the state's 0:20:58.359 --> 0:21:02.080 first African American governor with the state's first female governor. Well, 0:21:02.119 --> 0:21:04.760 that didn't happen. George Allen beat her in an upset, 0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:10.159 and Virginia held on to its status as sort of 0:21:10.200 --> 0:21:13.680 a bit of a zagger whenever the country zigs in 0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:18.160 the previous presidential election. So I do think the more 0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:21.600 interesting elections in this off year not going to be 0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:23.080 in Virginia this year. They're going to be in New 0:21:23.160 --> 0:21:26.480 Jersey and they're going to be in New York City. 0:21:26.960 --> 0:21:31.879 In New Jersey, Jack Conidarelli and Mikey Cheryl are the 0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:35.480 two candidates there. Mikey Cheryl the Democratic nominee of a 0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:38.320 Member of Congress, Jack Ciarelli, who was the nominee for governor. 0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:40.720 He came within a few points of knocking off the 0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:46.120 incumbent Phil Murphy four years ago. Look, they put out 0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:49.080 a poll. Carelli's campaign put out a poll that has 0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:52.600 Cinerelli only down three points forty five forty two. It's 0:21:52.640 --> 0:21:54.520 about where I expect this race. I think this is 0:21:54.520 --> 0:21:56.439 going to be a very close race. I think the 0:21:56.480 --> 0:22:00.000 atmospherics favor the Democrats generally. We know that without Trump 0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:05.000 on the ballot, Democratic turnout and non Trump non MAGA 0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:10.560 turnout seems to outperform MAGA on that front. But if 0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:15.119 the Republicans do have success this cycle, it will be 0:22:15.119 --> 0:22:18.679 in New Jersey. This is a state that Trump continues 0:22:18.760 --> 0:22:22.159 to improve his standing in every election he's done a 0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:25.000 little bit better. He did very well in this previous 0:22:25.040 --> 0:22:28.880 presidential I'm convinced, for instance, Joe Biden been the nominee 0:22:28.920 --> 0:22:32.080 on the ballot, Trump might have carried New Jersey. So 0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:37.560 it's it's I do think if Trump does campaign, and 0:22:37.600 --> 0:22:39.879 I don't know if he will be on the stump 0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:42.440 very often, but if he does campaign this calendar here, 0:22:42.880 --> 0:22:43.920 my guess is it will. 0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:44.479 Be in New Jersey. 0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:47.600 We'll see if he can get if CIDERELLI can get 0:22:48.080 --> 0:22:52.720 Trump to do an event somewhere that isn't in Bedminster. 0:22:52.400 --> 0:22:54.359 Which is of course his New Jersey golf club. But 0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:55.000 we shall see. 0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:58.359 There One other New York twenty twenty five race that 0:22:58.400 --> 0:22:59.879 I'm keeping an eye on is what's happening in New 0:23:00.040 --> 0:23:04.080 York City. We're a week away from that primary. A 0:23:04.119 --> 0:23:06.280 few little nuggets I want to update you on. One 0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:09.440 is there's a fun I say, this is an interesting ad. 0:23:09.960 --> 0:23:14.200 You know, the ranked choice voting, and as the concept 0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:16.480 of ranked choice voting in theory is great, I think 0:23:16.520 --> 0:23:21.600 in practice it's very difficult, but I it does create 0:23:21.680 --> 0:23:27.840 some unique, unique coalitions. And there's a new TV ad 0:23:28.040 --> 0:23:31.320 that two of the challengers to Andrew Cuomo who are 0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:35.880 trailing him, but they kind of need each other because Zoran, 0:23:36.160 --> 0:23:40.240 Mom Donnie and Brad Lander. They have essentially started to 0:23:40.320 --> 0:23:43.080 run jointly. Now they have a cute little ad where 0:23:43.080 --> 0:23:44.960 they're getting ready to go get a cup of coffee, 0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:47.120 and it's like you go second, you go second, because 0:23:47.160 --> 0:23:50.119 the idea is one would rank. You know, what they're 0:23:50.160 --> 0:23:53.440 doing is saying, hey, we want my supporters. You rank 0:23:53.520 --> 0:23:55.480 me one, you rank the other guy too, and then 0:23:55.560 --> 0:23:59.520 vice versa. Because they're trying to create that whichever one, 0:24:00.040 --> 0:24:03.720 it's traction that they're able to stop Cuomo. I do 0:24:03.800 --> 0:24:06.840 think that that both of them are probably too progressive, 0:24:06.880 --> 0:24:09.840 particularly on the on the issue of Israel, that is 0:24:10.000 --> 0:24:13.760 that is probably going to uh make it hard for 0:24:13.800 --> 0:24:19.800 them to topple Cuomo. And you know, I don't I'd 0:24:19.840 --> 0:24:22.440 be surprised if Mom Donnie was able to pull this off. 0:24:23.400 --> 0:24:26.280 In many ways, the ranked choice voting method has been 0:24:26.720 --> 0:24:30.200 you know, the more conservative or the more progressive you are, 0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:34.760 the less successful they seem to be in elections that 0:24:34.840 --> 0:24:38.960 feature ranked choice voting. So I'm skeptical that Mom Donnie 0:24:39.000 --> 0:24:41.639 or Lander's going to get there. But it's a fascinating, 0:24:41.800 --> 0:24:45.439 you know end cape Lander getting arrested. Perhaps that was 0:24:46.160 --> 0:24:49.760 something he hoped for a confrontation, certainly getting him plenty 0:24:49.800 --> 0:24:54.159 of plenty of press right before the primary election. So 0:24:56.520 --> 0:25:03.160 I'm not as convinced going you know, when you're trying 0:25:03.200 --> 0:25:06.720 to win an election and you're not talking about the issue. 0:25:06.720 --> 0:25:09.439 You know, I'm not saying these ice rates aren't issues 0:25:09.480 --> 0:25:13.040