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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Gay Break Asia for this Monday, January

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Speaker 1: in Hong Kong, Sunday January twenty nine in New York

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Speaker 1: and coming up this hour, Indian billionaire Guatamadanni tries to

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Speaker 1: calm investors with the rebuttaled to allegations of fraud. Chinese

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Speaker 1: equities are likely to enter a bullmarket today after a

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Speaker 1: week long break. China's Central Bank extends cheaper lending to

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Speaker 1: the green sector. A U S General warns the US

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Speaker 1: and China could soon be fighting a war. Get ready

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Speaker 1: for those dept ceiling talks. And mining giant Rio Tinto

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Speaker 1: loses a highly radioactive capsule. I'm Today's Pelegrady with Global News.

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Speaker 1: Novak Djokovic bakes history with yet another Australian Open title.

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Speaker 1: I'm Dan Schwartzmen. I'll have that storyboard coming up in

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg swoards. That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg on Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C, bloom Burg one six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine six,

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, Sirius XM one nine Team, and around the

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Speaker 1: world on Bloomberg Radio Dot com and via the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: business Side. Good morning, I'm the Prisoner and I'm Brian Curtis.

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Speaker 1: Here are the stories we're following today. Well, let's take

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Speaker 1: a look at these top stories, and Bloomberg's Michael McKee

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Speaker 1: has a preview on what to expect this week. It's

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Speaker 1: a big week for markets, although the news that may

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Speaker 1: have the biggest impact on markets won't come until Friday.

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Speaker 1: Wednesday's FED meeting will dominate the headlines early that although

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Speaker 1: a quarter percentage point increase in the nation's benchmark borrowing

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Speaker 1: rate is pretty much baked in, it would take a

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Speaker 1: surprise to really move markets. Friday is job's Day, however,

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Speaker 1: and that data will do a lot to inform how

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Speaker 1: investors think about the feds next move. So far, the

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Speaker 1: Central Bank has raised rates by four and a half

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Speaker 1: percent this year, but unemployment is unchanged. Does hiring slow

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Speaker 1: and job loss accelerate, and most important, to average hourly

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Speaker 1: wage gains slow? Those will be key data points for

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Speaker 1: Fed officials considering any additional policy change. Michael McKie Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Daybreak Asia. Well, the Adonni group is trying to calm

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Speaker 1: jittery markets, and maybe a worried investors alike ahead of

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Speaker 1: that two and a half billion dollars share sale. In

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Speaker 1: the week ahead, we have more from Bloomberg's Sasanna Palmer

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Speaker 1: go to Madonni, India's richest man, published a four d

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Speaker 1: thirteen page rebuttle of allegations of fraud by short seller

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Speaker 1: Hindenburg Research. A Donnie calls the accusations by Hindenburg nothing

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Speaker 1: short of a calculated securities fraud under applicable law. Adanni

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Speaker 1: Group says it will exercise its rights to pursue remedies

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Speaker 1: to safeguard stakeholders. Hindenburgh had published a one hundred page

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Speaker 1: report on the eve of A Donnie's share sale opening,

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Speaker 1: alleging that it's two year investigation found quote brazen stock

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Speaker 1: manipulation and accounting fraud. It also called out A Donnie's

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Speaker 1: substantial debt. Susannah Palmer, Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. So a big

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Speaker 1: week this week, but a big a today. Chinese equities

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Speaker 1: coming back and likely to enter a bullmarket today when

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Speaker 1: the exchange is reopened after a week long break. Let's

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Speaker 1: get the story from Bloomberg's David and Glass here in

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong, the Seas I three hundred is tipped to

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Speaker 1: extend its nine rise from October. Travel in box office

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Speaker 1: data are sending a sign that the consumer is back. Hotels, restaurants,

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Speaker 1: and travel companies are all expected to shine China State

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Speaker 1: councils set on Saturday. The nation needs to accelerate consumption.

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Speaker 1: Policymakers want consumers to be the new driving force of

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Speaker 1: the economy now. In the past, previous rallies were always

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Speaker 1: stopped short by COVID lockdowns, but that's out of the picture,

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Speaker 1: at least for now, and as a result, investors like

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley think there's a lot more room to run

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Speaker 1: in Hong Kong. David and Gless Bloomberg Day Break Asia.

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Speaker 1: China Central Bank will extend monetary policy tools for green

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Speaker 1: technologies and the logistics sector that story from Bloomberg's Annabel Jewelers.

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Speaker 1: The funding tools were for adopted in November twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: one and will remain in place until the end of

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Speaker 1: twenty four. Those banks lending to companies working to reduce

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Speaker 1: carbon emissions will have access to cheap funding. The p

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Speaker 1: BOC also said it will allow some local and foreign

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Speaker 1: financial institutions to join the project. The aim is to

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Speaker 1: deepen global cooperation and green finance. Meanwhile, the re lnding

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Speaker 1: project for the logistics sector will remain until the end

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Speaker 1: of June. Smaller logistics and storage companies will also be

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Speaker 1: added in Hong Kong. I'm Annabel Rulers Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Well.

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Speaker 1: Coming up at a few moments, we'll be chatting with

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Speaker 1: David Kotok, CEO and chairman of Cumberland Advisors, and Doug

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Speaker 1: one of the questions I'll put to him and this

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Speaker 1: is sort of interesting because we saw after Microsoft's earnings

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Speaker 1: that investors treated the company pretty lightly. It fared reasonably well,

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Speaker 1: and it seems that Bloomberg came out and codified how

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Speaker 1: this has been a reaction overall, that the market is

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Speaker 1: rewarding companies that beat expectations, but it's also limiting the

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Speaker 1: punishment doled out to those that fall short. And it

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Speaker 1: seems to be a message, which we mentioned at the time,

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Speaker 1: that a lot of the bad news is already baked in. Perhaps,

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Speaker 1: but consider the chip makers. There was a story on

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal about declining memory chip prices. Now I

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Speaker 1: know that a m D doesn't really play heavily in

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Speaker 1: that space that belongs more to let's say, to Micron

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Speaker 1: Technology or even South Korea's sk Heinex. Nonetheless, we're going

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Speaker 1: to hear from a m D this week along with

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Speaker 1: Qualcom and where the chip companies are concerned, Brian, I

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Speaker 1: think guidance is going to be critical. And isn't it

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Speaker 1: interesting that a m D S market cap now I

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Speaker 1: think has passed until which is really astonishing. I wanted

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Speaker 1: to make a very short comment on the Hindenburg A

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Speaker 1: Donni story that we talked about moments ago. Um, what

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Speaker 1: we wonder, you know, as our Shoeley Wren and others

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Speaker 1: pointed out, Hindenberg is pretty well respected on the street.

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Speaker 1: It was a firm that worked with Harry Markopolis, the

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Speaker 1: analyst that uncovered the Bernie made Off Ponzi scheme. And

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Speaker 1: you wonder whether or not this whole story is setting

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Speaker 1: back investing overall into all of em. Well, look at

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Speaker 1: what Bill Ackman had to say. I mean, he's doubling

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Speaker 1: down on his criticism right. He said, there's simply too

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Speaker 1: much liability or potential liability that the banks have right

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Speaker 1: now that are involved in this share sale, which may

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Speaker 1: happen this week. We don't know. Over the weekend. I

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Speaker 1: think it was on Saturday that Reuters was reporting that

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Speaker 1: some of the bankers involved in this sale we're considering

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Speaker 1: either delays or maybe even price cuts. Yeah, now tit

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Speaker 1: for tat with with that story about Hindenburg and uh

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Speaker 1: Donnie's group. Well, the time now eight minutes past the hour,

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Speaker 1: it's time for global news. The U S General said

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Speaker 1: that the US and China could soon be at war,

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Speaker 1: and here come those dead ceiling talks. Let's get to

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Speaker 1: Denise Pellegrini in the Bloomberg newsroom. Denise, Yeah, Brian, we

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Speaker 1: could see some tit for tat on those dead ceiling talks,

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Speaker 1: but right now we are seeing some possible movement on

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Speaker 1: the debt limit. How Speaker Kevin McCarthy saying he's looking

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Speaker 1: forward to talking with President Biden about it on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: I want to sit down together work out an agreement

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Speaker 1: that we can move forward to put us on a

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Speaker 1: path to balance at the same time, not put any

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Speaker 1: any of our debt in jeopardy at the same time.

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Speaker 1: And McCarthy also telling CBS Face the Nation he is

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Speaker 1: not asking for cuts to social Security or Medicare. He

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Speaker 1: does say though, Republicans do want to strengthen those programs,

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Speaker 1: so we'll see what happens there. Democrats and Republicans could

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Speaker 1: argue about the debt ceiling for months. Iran is warning

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Speaker 1: of escalating tension in the Persian Gulf. Says a drone

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Speaker 1: attack caused a heavy explosion at a Defense Ministry ammunition

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Speaker 1: depot in central Iran. No official word on who is

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Speaker 1: behind this attack. Correts though is blaming Israel. Former Defense

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Speaker 1: Secretary and former head of the CIA, Robert Gates says

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Speaker 1: support for Ukraine is holding up, but he does say

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin will not back down. If you had said

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Speaker 1: a year ago that Europe will go from more than

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Speaker 1: dependency on rush of oil and gas and they're now

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Speaker 1: less than a year later, zero to fifteen percent dependant,

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Speaker 1: that's extraordinary. Now he's speaking there an NBC's Meet the Press,

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Speaker 1: a US general says China and the US could be

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Speaker 1: at war within two years. General Mike Minihan the one

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Speaker 1: making this comment. He told his officers to prepare, according

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Speaker 1: to NBC for that, and he says he has a

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Speaker 1: gut feeling that the presidential elections in the US and

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Speaker 1: Taiwan in four will create what he calls an opportunity

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Speaker 1: for China to move in. He says by five, he

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Speaker 1: has a feeling they could be at war. China giving

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Speaker 1: visas to Japanese nationals wanting to visit again, that says,

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Speaker 1: it lifts more COVID restrictions. We'll see if China does

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Speaker 1: the same though with South Korea soon. One senator not

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Speaker 1: ruling out a federal investigation of the Memphis Police Department

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Speaker 1: after five of the department's officers were charged with murder

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Speaker 1: and connection to the beating death of Tyree Nichols. Illinois

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Speaker 1: Democrat Dick Durban. And Durban on ABC S this week

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Speaker 1: acknowledged the issue of police brutality wasn't isolated, but occurs

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Speaker 1: all over the country. U s attorney for the Western

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Speaker 1: District of Tennessee, does say that a civil rights investigation

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Speaker 1: into nichols death will occur, but not of the entire department.

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Speaker 1: And Rio Tinto says it has lost a highly radioactive

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Speaker 1: capsule in the Western Australian desert. This is the mining Giant,

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Speaker 1: It says. The package that this thing was in was

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Speaker 1: found broken apart at the radiation storage facility and empty.

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Speaker 1: Without this radioactive device exposure could cause radiation, sickness or burns.

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Speaker 1: Real Tinto is apologizing to the public for alarm this

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Speaker 1: is causing in the area. Global News twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day on errand on Bloomberg quick Take, powered by

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Speaker 1: more than journalists and analysts and more than a hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty countries in the news. Remind Denise Pelygriny, this

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg, Gay Break Asia. I'm Brian

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Speaker 1: Curtis along with Shots Salama here in the studio with me,

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Speaker 1: and we are joined by David kotoxy io and chairman

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Speaker 1: of Cumberland Advisors. It makes some sense of what we

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Speaker 1: see in the markets. David, is this the week it's

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Speaker 1: such a big week? Is this the week that sort

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Speaker 1: of upsets the Apple card with the recent equity rallies.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna find that out. This is as you just

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Speaker 1: described and reported with Doug and Mike McKeith. This is

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Speaker 1: a huge week. Um expectations about the FED are pretty clear.

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Speaker 1: It looks like it's a quarter point. That's not where

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Speaker 1: the questions are. I'm I'm a little a little cautious

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Speaker 1: because of that attacked by drones in Iran, and to

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Speaker 1: me that is a new version. We have to see

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Speaker 1: if the oil price reacts. Um. I was looking at

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Speaker 1: it just now. It looks like there's a few pennies

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Speaker 1: firming up, no immediate reaction, but I don't see that

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Speaker 1: as a one off of vent and the markets have

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Speaker 1: no pricing of geo political risk or a Middle East

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Speaker 1: shock in them, So that could be a new item

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Speaker 1: in the list. Well, that could be something which up

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Speaker 1: to the stakes, absolutely, David. But you know, we got

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Speaker 1: on the other side one thing which could really uppend.

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Speaker 1: It would be a face saving piece if you like,

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Speaker 1: or a ceasefire in Ukraine. But I want to get

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Speaker 1: to the other part of the question that I wanted

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Speaker 1: to to to really ask you here, which is that

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Speaker 1: with basis points as a hike coming up if we

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Speaker 1: get but how much will the language have to change

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Speaker 1: in order to a support it and be to reassure

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Speaker 1: people and be ultimately you've got to also ask yourself.

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Speaker 1: Then they've got to be very careful what they say. Oh,

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Speaker 1: I agree, Rich, They have to be very careful. If

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Speaker 1: they indicate that the rate increases and the pressure on

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Speaker 1: inflation is over, the market will say they've accepted something

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Speaker 1: higher than two percent and do a that will be

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Speaker 1: a game changer. So my suspicion is, or expectation is

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Speaker 1: the language will remain firm. Now the rate of increases

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Speaker 1: is still an increasing trajectory of central bank policy, and

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Speaker 1: that's not just in the United States, that's going to

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Speaker 1: be everywhere. We mentioned that the stock market has been

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Speaker 1: kind of uh, you know, avoiding punishing companies that miss,

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Speaker 1: and we cited Microsoft as as one example. Bloomberg did

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Speaker 1: a study of this and said that companies that fell

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Speaker 1: short underperformed the broader market by just one point seven percent,

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Speaker 1: and that was the least negative reaction in the last

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Speaker 1: eight quarters of earnings. Does it tell you something? Does

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Speaker 1: it tell you that the market thinks that either times

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Speaker 1: are getting better, or companies are making the right adjustments,

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Speaker 1: or maybe that the bad news is already in Well, Brian,

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Speaker 1: I saw that, I saw the study. It was a

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Speaker 1: great study by Bloomberg, and I think you characterize it

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Speaker 1: in the in the positive sentiment, Well, the markets are

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Speaker 1: stock markets are saying no hard recession, inflation peaking, central

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Speaker 1: banking tightening policies are coming to a pause, and it's

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Speaker 1: a Goldilock scenario, maybe we'll get it. But in our shop,

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Speaker 1: in my portfolios and the portfolios that we manage, we

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Speaker 1: still have a cash reserve and we are still wary

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Speaker 1: of geopolitical risk. So we are very much overweighted the

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Speaker 1: defense sector and aerospace sector. We don't think you have

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Speaker 1: just at the nine everything works out wonderfully outcome after

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Speaker 1: this shock. Now we'll be right or wrong. We'll know

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Speaker 1: that probably six months or a year from now, like

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Speaker 1: most things actually ultimately David. But so there is a

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Speaker 1: almost a sense of people being sanguine about geopolitics. And

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Speaker 1: that's something which is crept in probably the last couple

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Speaker 1: of decades because anything before uses really have a market

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Speaker 1: impact when it came to geo political changes, etcetera, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: Why do you think that happened? Well, low interest rates

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Speaker 1: for a persistent period of time created asset inflations, asset

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Speaker 1: price increases. Everyone thought how smart they were because whatever

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Speaker 1: they touched improved. Meanwhile, the world didn't become less dangerous,

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Speaker 1: it became more dangerous. And um, we have we go

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Speaker 1: through cycles reach and this is one of them. I'm

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Speaker 1: you know, if you're if you study history, and I've

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Speaker 1: done that for a while and continue to do so

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Speaker 1: when you get to sanguine and things are too easy

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Speaker 1: in the scenario is two goldilocks, then you got to

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Speaker 1: hold back. Yeah, you said you did, and you said

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Speaker 1: you've got a lot of cash on the on the

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Speaker 1: balance sheet. Would you deploy that to China? Now, I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to quickly get to this because it's such

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Speaker 1: a big story for us today in Asia. The China reopened.

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Speaker 1: Uh does it look like this rally has more room

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Speaker 1: to run? It sure looks like it. Yes, deploying into

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Speaker 1: China is something we are doing and have done and

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Speaker 1: continue to be optimistic about China reopening. And I think

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Speaker 1: there's a bunch of others. I don't see the trade

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Speaker 1: as too crowded yet. Because China suffered, Asian markets suffered,

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Speaker 1: So it's not just China. How about Korea? Have about Vietnam?

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Speaker 1: In a frontier market or an emerging market, a resurgence

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Speaker 1: in Asian market could have real legs for an extended run. Now,

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Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 1: stories making news from Hong Kong to Singapore and Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Brian Curtis and I'm Doug Prisoner.

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