WEBVTT - The Midterm Elections with Robert Cahaly 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.440 Mid terms are right around the corner, just ahead in November, 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:07.080 consequential mid term election, probably one of the most important 0:00:07.080 --> 0:00:09.960 of her lifetimes, I think, given the state of the country, 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:12.039 everything that's going on in the country. So we're going 0:00:12.080 --> 0:00:14.920 to turn to a pollster who has actually gotten things right, 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.560 who doesn't inject bias. He just tries to get to 0:00:17.600 --> 0:00:19.639 the truth. He tries to get to the answers. He 0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:22.440 tries to reflect reality at a time when a lot 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.040 of pollsters are showing their bias. Right, they inject their 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:27.720 own bias into the outcomes and what they think the 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:30.639 electorate is going to look like. That pollster, he's the 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:33.720 founder of the Trafalgar Group. His name is Robert Colly. 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:36.479 You've seen him on Fox News quite a bit. But 0:00:36.760 --> 0:00:38.559 he has a history of getting things right. I mean, 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:40.400 you look at over the last six years, their average 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:45.000 error rate is two point four percent. Even in the election, 0:00:45.040 --> 0:00:47.839 they made a huge name for themselves because you know, 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.000 he stood by his polling results which showed a clear 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:54.720 three D plus Trump victory. You know, he was an outlier. 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:58.440 Basically consensus was saying Hillary Clinton would win, and Robert 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:01.360 didn't back down. He didn't act down. He stood by 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:04.200 his results. You've got the real clear politics. Tom Bevan 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:07.240 has said that the Trafalgar Group are widely recognized as 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:11.200 one of America's most consistently accurate and trusted. The Weekly 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:14.479 Standards said a single firm had the most accurate polls 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:20.000 in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, in Georgia. 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:23.440 Talking about the Trafalgar Group, So they've gotten a lot, right, 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:27.039 I think, largely because they don't inject bias into the polls, 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:29.480 and they do things like likely voters, particularly at a 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:31.760 time right now when we're head of the election, and 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:35.440 that's really important. So we are going to talk to 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:38.560 Robert about this election cycle, what it all means, talk 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:41.400 about that hidden Trump vote in two thousand sixteen, two 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:43.760 thousand twenty. Are we gonna see a little bit of 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:46.440 that again? Is there a hidden Republican vote? So we're 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:48.840 going to talk to Robert about all of this, a 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:50.960 guy who is a history of getting things right, what 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:54.280 he thinks about today's political landscape, where things are going, 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:57.160 and what voters care about. So stay tuned for Robert 0:01:57.240 --> 0:02:10.799 Cally Trafalgar Group. That's next. We've got Robert ka Haley 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:13.760 from the Trafalgar Group. You know, Robert, I'm really looking 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:15.880 forward to this conversation because you're one of the few 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:20.720 posters people still trust in this day and age. Well, 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:25.960 you know, we got into poeing because not because this 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:30.040 was anybody's big ambition. This isn't what I took in school. Uh. 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:33.720 You know, I was a political of doing campaigns, and 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:36.480 we were I was a general consultant. We were running 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:41.040 kind of legislative congressional level races around the country. And 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:45.120 what we found is the poem was just terrible. And 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:48.480 everybody kind of knew it was terrible, but you know 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:54.720 it was like nobody had anything better. And I've studied 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:58.640 a little bit um kind of watching. Uh, some you know, 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:00.920 kind of digging into the pool. Weren't asking, you know, 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:03.880 volunteer into see if I can go to the call 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:06.000 center and see what it looks like down there and 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:08.880 stuff like that and just get a sense for how 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:11.160 they were doing it. And so I found some what 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:17.360 I found figured to be serious falls and UH decided, hey, 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:20.400 we should we should try this, uh, and we should 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.160 try to do it with at a different angle. Uh. 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:25.000 And now there was some bomps along the way we that. 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:29.360 There's obviously there's some questions when the new technology of 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:32.959 the automated polls came out, Uh, there was some questions 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:35.520 about where you can you can't do that same as 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:38.160 automated calls, and we had a little buff of the 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:40.880 road figuring all that out. But in the end, what 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:45.320 we determined was there's some basic mistakes that the police 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:48.760 is making first and foremost, I mean, and this is 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.240 this is the key thing. If you ever want to 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:55.040 know how reliable pol is, look how many questions I asked. 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.000 We do not live in a day and age where 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:04.160 average people have time to answer long poles. So what 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:12.800 happens is poles disproportionately represent the opinion of those who 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:16.120 have the time, and those people tend to care about 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:18.919 politics a little bit too much. They tend to be 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:23.440 higher educated, and they tend to be very firm uh 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:27.400 in the in their corner. They're either firmly liberal or 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:31.000 firmly conservative. And the worst is the people who are 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:34.000 just bored and need someone to talk to. And you'd 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:37.680 be surprised how people and our society fit that. So 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:41.880 we just think they miss average people. And that's the 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:44.600 first thing I mean candidates all the time tell me, oh, 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:46.680 well you know this, this this is the pulse when 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:48.760 I gave me and I'll look at it thirty or 0:04:48.760 --> 0:04:53.760 five questions, It's worthless. The manything, there's so much bias 0:04:53.880 --> 0:04:56.039 that exists in today's world. And when we see it 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:57.359 in the media, I mean we see it when we 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:00.040 turn on the TV. We see it constantly. The bias 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:03.960 that exists and our society. Is there bias in pulling 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:08.479 and if so, how does that bias present itself? Well, 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:12.920 first of all, the self selection that that many questions 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:16.320 it gives you creates a level of bias. I looked 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:20.000 at one the other day. It doesn't matter what state um, 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:25.039 but the college graduates, post college and I mean post 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:30.080 college and post degree. That so like everything from a 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.080 from a master's, a doctorate, in a college graduate. They 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:37.279 represented fifty percent of the people in the pole. There's 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:40.680 not a state in America that that looks like a 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:45.840 general election turnout nowhere, it looks like the kind of 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:49.000 people who were participate. And in that case of forty 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:51.840 two questions pol And. So what it does is it 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:55.040 creates a bias to begin with a people who are 0:05:55.080 --> 0:05:59.359 more involved in politics and right now, people who have 0:05:59.400 --> 0:06:04.159 a greater epicacy tend to lean left. So that's the 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:08.440 first not intentional by us. And then of course, I 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:11.880 mean you have to look at it every company, no 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.240 matter what you do. I don't care if you make tomatoes, 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:17.560 I don't care. You know, grotovators, I don't kindn't care. 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:21.880 If if you build cars, you are built. You are 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:24.599 based on what the people who are paying you want. 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:30.760 You're you know you your answer to them. So the 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.920 question is do the media outlets seek polls that are perfect? 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:39.800 Are seek polls that fit the agenda of their news department? 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:45.960 And do the universities want poles that are accurate our 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:51.159 polls that seek to reflect the position of their university. 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:54.200 I mean, in the end, what we found is a 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:56.039 lot of the polls and and this is this is 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.200 true for the ones put out by the partisan groups 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:00.760 that that are out there. You know they paid for 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:04.160 by the Republican Party, Democrat Party, paid for candidate, paid 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:06.640 for by a pack. But in the end you have 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:09.720 to answer this question, what was this pollar designed for? 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:13.239 Is it to reflect the electorate or is it designed 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:16.760 to affect the electorate? And I will tell you effect 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:20.000 is much more than reflect right now, and that's one 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:22.640 of the problems. And so what they're doing is they're 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:26.800 flooding these these averages and giving people a thought since 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:29.840 where races are because there's four or five junk poles 0:07:29.880 --> 0:07:33.000 in there that have an agenda and then only two 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:35.360 or three that are honest, and of course it leans 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:37.480 towards the agenda of the junk polls well, and to 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:39.880 that in that vein, I see. You know, if you 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:42.280 go to the real clear politics, particularly if you're just 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:47.320 saying at the congressional ballot, you have Republicans up five 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:50.120 right now, but you're also doing likely voters. A lot 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:52.760 of people are doing registered voters. Why do you do 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:56.679 likely voters? And why do other people do registered voters? Well, 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.880 first of all, because they're most these guys are really 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:04.080 bad at predicting news gonna vote. That's one of the 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:07.920 things we learned and the Trump campaign last time UH 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:14.240 is they were whole groups they weren't pulling, so likely 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:18.800 voters tends to give UH an advantage to the Democrats. 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:22.160 It just does. I don't know why they switched to it, 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:25.680 other it seems very obvious to me because when you're 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:29.600 calling registered voters or you mean registered voters gives an 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:33.000 advantage to Democrats? Absolutely? Yeah, okay, I think you actidently 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:35.920 said likely voters, but you mean registered voters gives the 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:38.880 advantage to Democrats. Yeah, no worries, stories, just wanted to 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:41.720 make sure. But when you're calling registed voters, you're calling 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:46.480 everyone from Johnny and Susie who have voted in every 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:51.880 single election every two years to build the bomb. Who 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:56.040 hasn't voted in ten years but still registered? How is 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:59.880 that more accurate poll? How do you at least not 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:03.520 filter out people who haven't voted at all? Now, I'm 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:06.520 a big fan of identifying low propensitive voters that I 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:11.240 think will participate in particular election. But we but just imagine, 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:13.680 we had one of the biggest turnouts in America in 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:18.160 no one will debate back. Do you think somebody who 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:21.480 did not get off their couch and vote in should 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:28.640 be getting pulled about two? It's insane. It does not. 0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:33.719 It is a fundamental problem, and we're never gonna do that. 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:37.760 Talk a little bit about you know, the hidden Trump 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:44.319 support that existed in and well, it manifested itself two 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:48.400 different ways in we called you they were the kind 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:51.199 of hidden the shy Trump voter. And these were people 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:56.400 who were definitely voting for trauma um but because of 0:09:57.120 --> 0:09:59.439 you know, Hilly calling him the basket of the plorables, 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:02.200 and and just kind of the stigma that was out there, 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:06.880 they were hesitant to say so on the phone. They 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:11.000 just were. And the thing is, we all know, I mean, 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:14.000 just forget what I tell you. We all know this 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:18.040 is real. Every single person who's listening to this knows 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:20.400 somebody who was for Trump who didn't want all their 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:23.360 friends and family to know it and didn't talk about it, 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:24.880 didn't have a sign in, they y ared, but could 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:27.000 not wait to vote for it. We all know people 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:30.840 like that. So why would why would you think that 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:35.320 everyone is just this forthcoming is forthcoming in a pole? 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:38.520 Of course they weren't. So what they were doing is 0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:40.679 that they weren't saying who there for were or they 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:42.800 were staying in deciety and they when we weren't, or 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:44.720 they were staying there for Hillary. So what we did 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.640 is we we used a little vehicle. Uh. And I 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:49.360 would love to take credit for this, but it is 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:52.160 not my idea. There's it was a great guy. He 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:55.080 was one of Lee Atwater's Contemporaries in South Carolina, where 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:57.600 I grew up and did politics. His name was um 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:01.400 Rod Sheeley, and Roy Chiley told me, he said, you 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:03.720 need to give people a polite way to tell you 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:07.440 something that they think is impolite. And he said you 0:11:07.480 --> 0:11:09.800 need to ask him, well, how do you think? What 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:13.120 do you think most of your neighbors think? And so 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:15.640 we came back through and I said, let's just use 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.320 this little sleeves to the neighbor question. So he said, 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:20.760 all right, well, okay, you're for Hillary. What do you 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:22.679 think who do you think most of your neighbors for? 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:28.040 And they would say Trump. And what that is is 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.960 it's it's a projection vehicle and lets people tell you 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:33.440 what they wanted to tell you about you, thinking that's 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:37.719 their opinion. So we started looking at the difference and 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:41.640 in and in states we would measure that how what 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:45.960 the margin was between those who said Trump and those 0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:50.240 who said Hillary and then those who neighbor question was 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:55.520 was different. And the common thing was Hillary uh never 0:11:55.960 --> 0:12:01.160 went with up. Hilly support never went up, It always 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:05.760 went down, and Trump support always went up. And so 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:08.160 in every single state it was like, all right, hey, 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:10.559 this state's an eight. You know the states the three 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:14.600 and we can figure out pretty quickly consistently what what 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:18.000 the margin was between the people who said Trumph on 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:21.920 question one, I mean Hillary on question question one and 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:25.320 and said Trump on question two. So we were able 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:29.560 to get to a better estivation of where the hidden 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:34.600 Trump vote was in these states and better identify them 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:38.040 and then ask them some other specific questions. There are 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:41.600 a lot of things that we don't explain, uh to 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.520 help us get there because they're they're very proprietary ways 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:48.080 we question people. There's ways you can do all kinds 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:51.000 of stuff in pulling that you can get you a 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.480 more honest answer. I mean, if you want to be 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:55.559 one of our callers, you don't. It's not just like 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.280 being a regular caller who do the polling calls. You 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:01.480 have to sign a document. You will never suppose the 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:03.720 way we teach you to ask questions. Take a quick 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:07.040 commercial break back with Robert Colly of the Trafalgar Group. 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:13.600 That's next. Is there a hidden Geope vote right now? 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:16.719 Because I think because the left has gone so insane 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:18.959 on certain issues, I would imagine there are a lot 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:22.480 of independence or maybe even some soft Dems who may 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:26.280 be inclined to vote a different way given today's environment. 0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:29.760 Is there is there a hidden Geope vote? Perhaps? Yeah, 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:33.680 that's often tell you was totally different. It wasn't just 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.720 they were hidden. They didn't want to participate. The pole 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:43.600 with a whole new ballgame in you had conservatives Trump 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:48.079 supporters who literally just didn't want to take polls. What 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.520 we found is to get we would have to try 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:57.320 five times. It's hard to get Republicans as Democrats. So 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.400 if you're doing a poll and you need he get 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.120 you know, thirty eight percent Republican for that state and 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:08.520 you need to get you know, forty Democrat for that state, 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:12.160 we would have to work way harder. We'd have to 0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:15.240 call five times the number of people, reach out to 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:19.400 five times a number of people to get that percent Republican. 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.440 Then who would to get to the Democrats because they 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:25.840 were hesitant answer. Now here's the other problem. The ones 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:29.120 that were not hesitant ansch on the Republican side where 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:31.680 they never Trump Republicans who couldn't wait to tell you 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:37.560 they hated it. So if the poem company wasn't really 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:41.960 trying to get this right, they would end up artificially 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.720 boosting the size of never trump Republicans since they were 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:49.680 more likely to participate in polls, if you didn't filter 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:52.640 that out and put that as a percentage. Wait, that's 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.720 saying ay, all right, hey, among the Republicans we get 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:59.600 there is you know, eleven percent that are never Trumpers. Well, 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:03.800 if you didn't make sure that was the case, you'd 0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:06.680 end up, you know, having of your Republicans have be 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:09.680 never Trumpers or more and the pole would be off. 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.200 And that's why you saw some of the nonsense you 0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:17.960 saw in these states. I mean, you know, Wisconsin the 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:20.520 great a great example. We had the best pole in 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:23.840 Wisconsin in America, and Washington, I think it was Washington 0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:26.760 Post ABC had it off by like twelve And we 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:28.880 had the best one in Florida, and the best one 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:30.960 in North Carolina, and the best one in Duxas and 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.720 the best one I know why Yeah, And there was 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:35.560 and there were a few states that you know, we 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:38.560 were a couple of points off, and that sometimes like 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:40.560 a couple of points of difference between winning and losing, 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:43.240 and we can all just we could spend the rest 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.520 of our lives discussing how that couple of points got done, 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.200 whether it was right, but it doesn't matter, it's the past. 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:53.760 But the fact is, these these things, these things matter. 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.240 And that's why the polling was so off compared to 0:15:57.240 --> 0:15:59.320 what happened. They said this was gonna be a Joe 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:01.360 Biden blower. It was by no means that Joe Biden 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:03.880 blowout a few votes in a few different states. And 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:06.000 it's different game. So what does that mean for the 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:10.240 mid terms. The mid terms are very much just like 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:17.280 what Virginia was. So so if Virginia was, hey, we 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:19.920 have this oude of your election, there are lots of 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:24.000 Republicans and Democrats in Virginia who vote every two years 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:28.000 for federal elections, but don't vote in oude your elections. 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:31.000 So it was a battle between the two parties see 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:37.760 which one could build up closer to their turnout. So 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:41.200 it's going to grab those people who don't usually vote, 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:43.280 who did vote in twenty and trying to get as 0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:45.560 many of them to vote as possible. It's the same 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:49.880 thing here. It's it is a it is a motivation game, 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:54.400 and so that's and so that's what's really key. So 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:56.400 that's why I really don't understand these people who are 0:16:56.400 --> 0:17:02.000 polling beyond registered voters who hadn't gotten off their sixteen 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:04.560 I don't know if those didn't those elections didn't wake up, 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:09.639 I don't know what will um. But so that's so 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.760 you have to you have to pull anticipating your turnout 0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:19.320 is gonna be somewhere between, and a lot of that 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:24.199 is just where you think that's gonna be. Are uh 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:28.600 a young family, you know, people with school age children. 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:31.399 Are they going to turn out in the rate they 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:35.320 did in ten or are they going to turn out 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:37.800 like they did in Virginia because of all the school stuff? 0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:40.560 Are they motivated on that? Will they come in a 0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:43.399 higher margin? What what proportion of the thing You're just 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:46.800 gonna turn out? And a usual midterm election, the seniors 0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:50.680 would represent a much bigger point, much bigger part than 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.840 they do in a in a presidential election, So a 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:56.080 lot of that The difference is first of how you 0:17:56.160 --> 0:18:01.320 model your turnout, because again how your collection and stuff 0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:03.840 is based on the models for your turnout and the 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:06.800 way you collect the information. So yeah, it's gonna it's 0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:09.960 it's gonna affect it a lot. And everybody's you know, 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:14.080 having different scenarios. I mean, I guess take of me 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:17.120 an attach form being Republicans. So frankly, most of our 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:23.320 scenarios are are the better snare for the Democrats and 0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:26.880 the Republicans, just so we can avoid that accusation. From 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.359 what you've seen so far in the pooling you've done 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:33.760 for this cycle, what does the political landscape look like 0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:39.880 right now? People are frustrated in general. Um, they they 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:43.119 don't really look at a party to solve their problems. 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:45.560 And this is what I was trying to say a 0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:48.840 long time ago when all these generic ballots came out. Now, like, oh, 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:56.040 Republicans are sixty years Listen these people Republicans. When when 0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:59.120 you see that generic ballot jumping around, what that is 0:18:59.880 --> 0:19:02.080 is like it's like a guy who's been in a 0:19:02.080 --> 0:19:05.440 casino all night bet and black and he says, well, 0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:08.000 all I'm doing is losing. I'm gonna bet read for 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:10.840 a while. That ain't the car I usually bet, but 0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:13.280 I'm gonna because I'm we'll see if I get something different. 0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:16.959 And that's what this is is I don't like what 0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:19.480 I got and we'll see if I get something different. 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:21.920 So if the Republicans do pick up a bunch of seach, 0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:24.040 don't get in your heads that all these people suddenly 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:27.439 became Republicans, and they're gonna be walking around, you know, 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:29.639 wearing red T shirts for the next ten years. No, 0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:33.680 they've given you a chance to earn their votes. Well 0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:38.760 you're gonna do with it. The American public is shopping 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.879 and they don't know when they don't want a party 0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:46.000 at all, but they've got to find one. And so 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:50.840 what I see as voters that are hesitantly moving towards 0:19:50.840 --> 0:19:53.720 the Republicans with because they think they might be better 0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:58.320 than what they've got. And there has become a separation 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:00.959 that be it that it's started, it are official or not, 0:20:01.320 --> 0:20:04.040 between Joe Biden and the Democrats. What the Democrats are 0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:08.000 doing is they're letting Joe Biden take all the negative 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:12.080 and letting me get blamed on him and trying to 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:16.560 separate themselves from him. But in the end, I think 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:20.160 this election is a reference among Joe Biden. I mean, 0:20:20.240 --> 0:20:22.680 this is the Joe Biden work or not? Is the 0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:28.119 sum administration making the difference that you wanted or is 0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:30.920 it going the opposite way? I mean, what's Saul said 0:20:30.920 --> 0:20:34.880 and done? I think what you'll see And I said 0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:37.520 this the other iron handy, I said, I think running 0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:40.399 as a Democrat with Joe Biden as president is like 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:44.600 having a household of termites. Everything looks fine on the outside, 0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:49.040 nobody's talking about it, nobody has any clue. But before 0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:51.439 it's over, it's going to be the only thing that matters. 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:55.720 How much did the FBI raid on Maral logo. How 0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:58.360 much has that impacted things or or has it? Well 0:20:58.400 --> 0:21:01.560 remember that part about how it's switch party can get 0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:08.240 closer to the turnout. That's that helped the Republicans get closer. 0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:13.159 There was a level. I mean there was and I 0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:19.560 saw this in early the Republicans. We're so angry at 0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:23.159 all the nonsense in the summer of and all the 0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:25.760 masks mandate and all I just all the COVID nonsense, 0:21:25.840 --> 0:21:28.520 all the statue being torn down, all the approaches. They 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:32.520 were just so angry, and it was like the only 0:21:32.520 --> 0:21:35.960 way to scratch that itch was to vote. The only 0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:39.000 way to get some release from that pressure was to vote. 0:21:39.840 --> 0:21:44.160 And I'm seeing them feel that way again, and I'm 0:21:44.200 --> 0:21:49.399 seeing the Democrats certainly motivated, but not like that. And 0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:51.199 then there are people in the middle that are just 0:21:52.359 --> 0:21:56.560 I just almost like in Trump selection where I said 0:21:56.600 --> 0:21:58.439 that people a lot of people voted for Trump. They 0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:01.800 didn't like Trump, that's necessarily. They just saw Trump as 0:22:01.800 --> 0:22:03.760 a big old monkey wrench that they could throw in 0:22:03.800 --> 0:22:07.479 the middle of a machine that was hurting them. They said, 0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:09.640 how to hate this system? How do I break it? Oh, 0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:11.840 that guy looks like a monkey rinch will break it. 0:22:12.200 --> 0:22:15.560 Let me throw it. That's what they wanted. And people 0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:18.800 just think this thing is dysfunctional. I mean, what we 0:22:18.920 --> 0:22:21.879 get what people are telling us is the government cares 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:27.560 about all kinds of stuff I don't, and that would include, 0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:31.760 you know, constant pressure on Green New Deal stuff which 0:22:31.880 --> 0:22:38.200 pronounced people use, its establishing all of you know, the 0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:42.480 white supremacists as a priority for the military, and all 0:22:42.560 --> 0:22:45.520 the other things they see as nonsense and the things 0:22:45.600 --> 0:22:49.200 that do matter to people. Am I safe in my home? 0:22:49.240 --> 0:22:53.119 Are my children safe from fitting all? Um? Are people 0:22:53.160 --> 0:22:57.159 coming across our our border and making our communities less safe? 0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:00.919 Is the economy given me the opportunity to make a 0:23:00.960 --> 0:23:05.240 good living? Yeah? And somehow the government doesn't seem to 0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:07.439 be doing anything about that. In fact, seems to be 0:23:07.480 --> 0:23:11.920 working to the opposite effect. And it's it's like, why 0:23:12.000 --> 0:23:14.680 is the government working against me? I mean, I feel 0:23:14.720 --> 0:23:16.280 that way. You know, I think a lot of the 0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:19.159 people listening to this podcast feel that way. You know, 0:23:19.560 --> 0:23:20.960 I know a lot of people on the left. They're 0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:23.560 they're saying that the overturning of reverse Wade, that that 0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:27.480 is going to motivate you know, Democrats, particularly Democratic woman. 0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:30.360 Uh what are you saying in that? You know, how 0:23:30.480 --> 0:23:32.320 much of a motivating factor do you think that's going 0:23:32.359 --> 0:23:35.040