Speaker 1: Mid terms are right around the corner, just ahead in November,
Speaker 1: consequential mid term election, probably one of the most important
Speaker 1: of her lifetimes, I think, given the state of the country,
Speaker 1: everything that's going on in the country. So we're going
Speaker 1: to turn to a pollster who has actually gotten things right,
Speaker 1: who doesn't inject bias. He just tries to get to
Speaker 1: the truth. He tries to get to the answers. He
Speaker 1: tries to reflect reality at a time when a lot
Speaker 1: of pollsters are showing their bias. Right, they inject their
Speaker 1: own bias into the outcomes and what they think the
Speaker 1: electorate is going to look like. That pollster, he's the
Speaker 1: founder of the Trafalgar Group. His name is Robert Colly.
Speaker 1: You've seen him on Fox News quite a bit. But
Speaker 1: he has a history of getting things right. I mean,
Speaker 1: you look at over the last six years, their average
Speaker 1: error rate is two point four percent. Even in the election,
Speaker 1: they made a huge name for themselves because you know,
Speaker 1: he stood by his polling results which showed a clear
Speaker 1: three D plus Trump victory. You know, he was an outlier.
Speaker 1: Basically consensus was saying Hillary Clinton would win, and Robert
Speaker 1: didn't back down. He didn't act down. He stood by
Speaker 1: his results. You've got the real clear politics. Tom Bevan
Speaker 1: has said that the Trafalgar Group are widely recognized as
Speaker 1: one of America's most consistently accurate and trusted. The Weekly
Speaker 1: Standards said a single firm had the most accurate polls
Speaker 1: in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, in Georgia.
Speaker 1: Talking about the Trafalgar Group, So they've gotten a lot, right,
Speaker 1: I think, largely because they don't inject bias into the polls,
Speaker 1: and they do things like likely voters, particularly at a
Speaker 1: time right now when we're head of the election, and
Speaker 1: that's really important. So we are going to talk to
Speaker 1: Robert about this election cycle, what it all means, talk
Speaker 1: about that hidden Trump vote in two thousand sixteen, two
Speaker 1: thousand twenty. Are we gonna see a little bit of
Speaker 1: that again? Is there a hidden Republican vote? So we're
Speaker 1: going to talk to Robert about all of this, a
Speaker 1: guy who is a history of getting things right, what
Speaker 1: he thinks about today's political landscape, where things are going,
Speaker 1: and what voters care about. So stay tuned for Robert
Speaker 1: Cally Trafalgar Group. That's next. We've got Robert ka Haley
Speaker 1: from the Trafalgar Group. You know, Robert, I'm really looking
Speaker 1: forward to this conversation because you're one of the few
Speaker 1: posters people still trust in this day and age. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, we got into poeing because not because this
Speaker 1: was anybody's big ambition. This isn't what I took in school. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, I was a political of doing campaigns, and
Speaker 1: we were I was a general consultant. We were running
Speaker 1: kind of legislative congressional level races around the country. And
Speaker 1: what we found is the poem was just terrible. And
Speaker 1: everybody kind of knew it was terrible, but you know
Speaker 1: it was like nobody had anything better. And I've studied
Speaker 1: a little bit um kind of watching. Uh, some you know,
Speaker 1: kind of digging into the pool. Weren't asking, you know,
Speaker 1: volunteer into see if I can go to the call
Speaker 1: center and see what it looks like down there and
Speaker 1: stuff like that and just get a sense for how
Speaker 1: they were doing it. And so I found some what
Speaker 1: I found figured to be serious falls and UH decided, hey,
Speaker 1: we should we should try this, uh, and we should
Speaker 1: try to do it with at a different angle. Uh.
Speaker 1: And now there was some bomps along the way we that.
Speaker 1: There's obviously there's some questions when the new technology of
Speaker 1: the automated polls came out, Uh, there was some questions
Speaker 1: about where you can you can't do that same as
Speaker 1: automated calls, and we had a little buff of the
Speaker 1: road figuring all that out. But in the end, what
Speaker 1: we determined was there's some basic mistakes that the police
Speaker 1: is making first and foremost, I mean, and this is
Speaker 1: this is the key thing. If you ever want to
Speaker 1: know how reliable pol is, look how many questions I asked.
Speaker 1: We do not live in a day and age where
Speaker 1: average people have time to answer long poles. So what
Speaker 1: happens is poles disproportionately represent the opinion of those who
Speaker 1: have the time, and those people tend to care about
Speaker 1: politics a little bit too much. They tend to be
Speaker 1: higher educated, and they tend to be very firm uh
Speaker 1: in the in their corner. They're either firmly liberal or
Speaker 1: firmly conservative. And the worst is the people who are
Speaker 1: just bored and need someone to talk to. And you'd
Speaker 1: be surprised how people and our society fit that. So
Speaker 1: we just think they miss average people. And that's the
Speaker 1: first thing I mean candidates all the time tell me, oh,
Speaker 1: well you know this, this this is the pulse when
Speaker 1: I gave me and I'll look at it thirty or
Speaker 1: five questions, It's worthless. The manything, there's so much bias
Speaker 1: that exists in today's world. And when we see it
Speaker 1: in the media, I mean we see it when we
Speaker 1: turn on the TV. We see it constantly. The bias
Speaker 1: that exists and our society. Is there bias in pulling
Speaker 1: and if so, how does that bias present itself? Well,
Speaker 1: first of all, the self selection that that many questions
Speaker 1: it gives you creates a level of bias. I looked
Speaker 1: at one the other day. It doesn't matter what state um,
Speaker 1: but the college graduates, post college and I mean post
Speaker 1: college and post degree. That so like everything from a
Speaker 1: from a master's, a doctorate, in a college graduate. They
Speaker 1: represented fifty percent of the people in the pole. There's
Speaker 1: not a state in America that that looks like a
Speaker 1: general election turnout nowhere, it looks like the kind of
Speaker 1: people who were participate. And in that case of forty
Speaker 1: two questions pol And. So what it does is it
Speaker 1: creates a bias to begin with a people who are
Speaker 1: more involved in politics and right now, people who have
Speaker 1: a greater epicacy tend to lean left. So that's the
Speaker 1: first not intentional by us. And then of course, I
Speaker 1: mean you have to look at it every company, no
Speaker 1: matter what you do. I don't care if you make tomatoes,
Speaker 1: I don't care. You know, grotovators, I don't kindn't care.
Speaker 1: If if you build cars, you are built. You are
Speaker 1: based on what the people who are paying you want.
Speaker 1: You're you know you your answer to them. So the
Speaker 1: question is do the media outlets seek polls that are perfect?
Speaker 1: Are seek polls that fit the agenda of their news department?
Speaker 1: And do the universities want poles that are accurate our
Speaker 1: polls that seek to reflect the position of their university.
Speaker 1: I mean, in the end, what we found is a
Speaker 1: lot of the polls and and this is this is
Speaker 1: true for the ones put out by the partisan groups
Speaker 1: that that are out there. You know they paid for
Speaker 1: by the Republican Party, Democrat Party, paid for candidate, paid
Speaker 1: for by a pack. But in the end you have
Speaker 1: to answer this question, what was this pollar designed for?
Speaker 1: Is it to reflect the electorate or is it designed
Speaker 1: to affect the electorate? And I will tell you effect
Speaker 1: is much more than reflect right now, and that's one
Speaker 1: of the problems. And so what they're doing is they're
Speaker 1: flooding these these averages and giving people a thought since
Speaker 1: where races are because there's four or five junk poles
Speaker 1: in there that have an agenda and then only two
Speaker 1: or three that are honest, and of course it leans
Speaker 1: towards the agenda of the junk polls well, and to
Speaker 1: that in that vein, I see. You know, if you
Speaker 1: go to the real clear politics, particularly if you're just
Speaker 1: saying at the congressional ballot, you have Republicans up five
Speaker 1: right now, but you're also doing likely voters. A lot
Speaker 1: of people are doing registered voters. Why do you do
Speaker 1: likely voters? And why do other people do registered voters? Well,
Speaker 1: first of all, because they're most these guys are really
Speaker 1: bad at predicting news gonna vote. That's one of the
Speaker 1: things we learned and the Trump campaign last time UH
Speaker 1: is they were whole groups they weren't pulling, so likely
Speaker 1: voters tends to give UH an advantage to the Democrats.
Speaker 1: It just does. I don't know why they switched to it,
Speaker 1: other it seems very obvious to me because when you're
Speaker 1: calling registered voters or you mean registered voters gives an
Speaker 1: advantage to Democrats? Absolutely? Yeah, okay, I think you actidently
Speaker 1: said likely voters, but you mean registered voters gives the
Speaker 1: advantage to Democrats. Yeah, no worries, stories, just wanted to
Speaker 1: make sure. But when you're calling registed voters, you're calling
Speaker 1: everyone from Johnny and Susie who have voted in every
Speaker 1: single election every two years to build the bomb. Who
Speaker 1: hasn't voted in ten years but still registered? How is
Speaker 1: that more accurate poll? How do you at least not
Speaker 1: filter out people who haven't voted at all? Now, I'm
Speaker 1: a big fan of identifying low propensitive voters that I
Speaker 1: think will participate in particular election. But we but just imagine,
Speaker 1: we had one of the biggest turnouts in America in
Speaker 1: no one will debate back. Do you think somebody who
Speaker 1: did not get off their couch and vote in should
Speaker 1: be getting pulled about two? It's insane. It does not.
Speaker 1: It is a fundamental problem, and we're never gonna do that.
Speaker 1: Talk a little bit about you know, the hidden Trump
Speaker 1: support that existed in and well, it manifested itself two
Speaker 1: different ways in we called you they were the kind
Speaker 1: of hidden the shy Trump voter. And these were people
Speaker 1: who were definitely voting for trauma um but because of
Speaker 1: you know, Hilly calling him the basket of the plorables,
Speaker 1: and and just kind of the stigma that was out there,
Speaker 1: they were hesitant to say so on the phone. They
Speaker 1: just were. And the thing is, we all know, I mean,
Speaker 1: just forget what I tell you. We all know this
Speaker 1: is real. Every single person who's listening to this knows
Speaker 1: somebody who was for Trump who didn't want all their
Speaker 1: friends and family to know it and didn't talk about it,
Speaker 1: didn't have a sign in, they y ared, but could
Speaker 1: not wait to vote for it. We all know people
Speaker 1: like that. So why would why would you think that
Speaker 1: everyone is just this forthcoming is forthcoming in a pole?
Speaker 1: Of course they weren't. So what they were doing is
Speaker 1: that they weren't saying who there for were or they
Speaker 1: were staying in deciety and they when we weren't, or
Speaker 1: they were staying there for Hillary. So what we did
Speaker 1: is we we used a little vehicle. Uh. And I
Speaker 1: would love to take credit for this, but it is
Speaker 1: not my idea. There's it was a great guy. He
Speaker 1: was one of Lee Atwater's Contemporaries in South Carolina, where
Speaker 1: I grew up and did politics. His name was um
Speaker 1: Rod Sheeley, and Roy Chiley told me, he said, you
Speaker 1: need to give people a polite way to tell you
Speaker 1: something that they think is impolite. And he said you
Speaker 1: need to ask him, well, how do you think? What
Speaker 1: do you think most of your neighbors think? And so
Speaker 1: we came back through and I said, let's just use
Speaker 1: this little sleeves to the neighbor question. So he said,
Speaker 1: all right, well, okay, you're for Hillary. What do you
Speaker 1: think who do you think most of your neighbors for?
Speaker 1: And they would say Trump. And what that is is
Speaker 1: it's it's a projection vehicle and lets people tell you
Speaker 1: what they wanted to tell you about you, thinking that's
Speaker 1: their opinion. So we started looking at the difference and
Speaker 1: in and in states we would measure that how what
Speaker 1: the margin was between those who said Trump and those
Speaker 1: who said Hillary and then those who neighbor question was
Speaker 1: was different. And the common thing was Hillary uh never
Speaker 1: went with up. Hilly support never went up, It always
Speaker 1: went down, and Trump support always went up. And so
Speaker 1: in every single state it was like, all right, hey,
Speaker 1: this state's an eight. You know the states the three
Speaker 1: and we can figure out pretty quickly consistently what what
Speaker 1: the margin was between the people who said Trumph on
Speaker 1: question one, I mean Hillary on question question one and
Speaker 1: and said Trump on question two. So we were able
Speaker 1: to get to a better estivation of where the hidden
Speaker 1: Trump vote was in these states and better identify them
Speaker 1: and then ask them some other specific questions. There are
Speaker 1: a lot of things that we don't explain, uh to
Speaker 1: help us get there because they're they're very proprietary ways
Speaker 1: we question people. There's ways you can do all kinds
Speaker 1: of stuff in pulling that you can get you a
Speaker 1: more honest answer. I mean, if you want to be
Speaker 1: one of our callers, you don't. It's not just like
Speaker 1: being a regular caller who do the polling calls. You
Speaker 1: have to sign a document. You will never suppose the
Speaker 1: way we teach you to ask questions. Take a quick
Speaker 1: commercial break back with Robert Colly of the Trafalgar Group.
Speaker 1: That's next. Is there a hidden Geope vote right now?
Speaker 1: Because I think because the left has gone so insane
Speaker 1: on certain issues, I would imagine there are a lot
Speaker 1: of independence or maybe even some soft Dems who may
Speaker 1: be inclined to vote a different way given today's environment.
Speaker 1: Is there is there a hidden Geope vote? Perhaps? Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's often tell you was totally different. It wasn't just
Speaker 1: they were hidden. They didn't want to participate. The pole
Speaker 1: with a whole new ballgame in you had conservatives Trump
Speaker 1: supporters who literally just didn't want to take polls. What
Speaker 1: we found is to get we would have to try
Speaker 1: five times. It's hard to get Republicans as Democrats. So
Speaker 1: if you're doing a poll and you need he get
Speaker 1: you know, thirty eight percent Republican for that state and
Speaker 1: you need to get you know, forty Democrat for that state,
Speaker 1: we would have to work way harder. We'd have to
Speaker 1: call five times the number of people, reach out to
Speaker 1: five times a number of people to get that percent Republican.
Speaker 1: Then who would to get to the Democrats because they
Speaker 1: were hesitant answer. Now here's the other problem. The ones
Speaker 1: that were not hesitant ansch on the Republican side where
Speaker 1: they never Trump Republicans who couldn't wait to tell you
Speaker 1: they hated it. So if the poem company wasn't really
Speaker 1: trying to get this right, they would end up artificially
Speaker 1: boosting the size of never trump Republicans since they were
Speaker 1: more likely to participate in polls, if you didn't filter
Speaker 1: that out and put that as a percentage. Wait, that's
Speaker 1: saying ay, all right, hey, among the Republicans we get
Speaker 1: there is you know, eleven percent that are never Trumpers. Well,
Speaker 1: if you didn't make sure that was the case, you'd
Speaker 1: end up, you know, having of your Republicans have be
Speaker 1: never Trumpers or more and the pole would be off.
Speaker 1: And that's why you saw some of the nonsense you
Speaker 1: saw in these states. I mean, you know, Wisconsin the
Speaker 1: great a great example. We had the best pole in
Speaker 1: Wisconsin in America, and Washington, I think it was Washington
Speaker 1: Post ABC had it off by like twelve And we
Speaker 1: had the best one in Florida, and the best one
Speaker 1: in North Carolina, and the best one in Duxas and
Speaker 1: the best one I know why Yeah, And there was
Speaker 1: and there were a few states that you know, we
Speaker 1: were a couple of points off, and that sometimes like
Speaker 1: a couple of points of difference between winning and losing,
Speaker 1: and we can all just we could spend the rest
Speaker 1: of our lives discussing how that couple of points got done,
Speaker 1: whether it was right, but it doesn't matter, it's the past.
Speaker 1: But the fact is, these these things, these things matter.
Speaker 1: And that's why the polling was so off compared to
Speaker 1: what happened. They said this was gonna be a Joe
Speaker 1: Biden blower. It was by no means that Joe Biden
Speaker 1: blowout a few votes in a few different states. And
Speaker 1: it's different game. So what does that mean for the
Speaker 1: mid terms. The mid terms are very much just like
Speaker 1: what Virginia was. So so if Virginia was, hey, we
Speaker 1: have this oude of your election, there are lots of
Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats in Virginia who vote every two years
Speaker 1: for federal elections, but don't vote in oude your elections.
Speaker 1: So it was a battle between the two parties see
Speaker 1: which one could build up closer to their turnout. So
Speaker 1: it's going to grab those people who don't usually vote,
Speaker 1: who did vote in twenty and trying to get as
Speaker 1: many of them to vote as possible. It's the same
Speaker 1: thing here. It's it is a it is a motivation game,
Speaker 1: and so that's and so that's what's really key. So
Speaker 1: that's why I really don't understand these people who are
Speaker 1: polling beyond registered voters who hadn't gotten off their sixteen
Speaker 1: I don't know if those didn't those elections didn't wake up,
Speaker 1: I don't know what will um. But so that's so
Speaker 1: you have to you have to pull anticipating your turnout
Speaker 1: is gonna be somewhere between, and a lot of that
Speaker 1: is just where you think that's gonna be. Are uh
Speaker 1: a young family, you know, people with school age children.
Speaker 1: Are they going to turn out in the rate they
Speaker 1: did in ten or are they going to turn out
Speaker 1: like they did in Virginia because of all the school stuff?
Speaker 1: Are they motivated on that? Will they come in a
Speaker 1: higher margin? What what proportion of the thing You're just
Speaker 1: gonna turn out? And a usual midterm election, the seniors
Speaker 1: would represent a much bigger point, much bigger part than
Speaker 1: they do in a in a presidential election, So a
Speaker 1: lot of that The difference is first of how you
Speaker 1: model your turnout, because again how your collection and stuff
Speaker 1: is based on the models for your turnout and the
Speaker 1: way you collect the information. So yeah, it's gonna it's
Speaker 1: it's gonna affect it a lot. And everybody's you know,
Speaker 1: having different scenarios. I mean, I guess take of me
Speaker 1: an attach form being Republicans. So frankly, most of our
Speaker 1: scenarios are are the better snare for the Democrats and
Speaker 1: the Republicans, just so we can avoid that accusation. From
Speaker 1: what you've seen so far in the pooling you've done
Speaker 1: for this cycle, what does the political landscape look like
Speaker 1: right now? People are frustrated in general. Um, they they
Speaker 1: don't really look at a party to solve their problems.
Speaker 1: And this is what I was trying to say a
Speaker 1: long time ago when all these generic ballots came out. Now, like, oh,
Speaker 1: Republicans are sixty years Listen these people Republicans. When when
Speaker 1: you see that generic ballot jumping around, what that is
Speaker 1: is like it's like a guy who's been in a
Speaker 1: casino all night bet and black and he says, well,
Speaker 1: all I'm doing is losing. I'm gonna bet read for
Speaker 1: a while. That ain't the car I usually bet, but
Speaker 1: I'm gonna because I'm we'll see if I get something different.
Speaker 1: And that's what this is is I don't like what
Speaker 1: I got and we'll see if I get something different.
Speaker 1: So if the Republicans do pick up a bunch of seach,
Speaker 1: don't get in your heads that all these people suddenly
Speaker 1: became Republicans, and they're gonna be walking around, you know,
Speaker 1: wearing red T shirts for the next ten years. No,
Speaker 1: they've given you a chance to earn their votes. Well
Speaker 1: you're gonna do with it. The American public is shopping
Speaker 1: and they don't know when they don't want a party
Speaker 1: at all, but they've got to find one. And so
Speaker 1: what I see as voters that are hesitantly moving towards
Speaker 1: the Republicans with because they think they might be better
Speaker 1: than what they've got. And there has become a separation
Speaker 1: that be it that it's started, it are official or not,
Speaker 1: between Joe Biden and the Democrats. What the Democrats are
Speaker 1: doing is they're letting Joe Biden take all the negative
Speaker 1: and letting me get blamed on him and trying to
Speaker 1: separate themselves from him. But in the end, I think
Speaker 1: this election is a reference among Joe Biden. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is the Joe Biden work or not? Is the
Speaker 1: sum administration making the difference that you wanted or is
Speaker 1: it going the opposite way? I mean, what's Saul said
Speaker 1: and done? I think what you'll see And I said
Speaker 1: this the other iron handy, I said, I think running
Speaker 1: as a Democrat with Joe Biden as president is like
Speaker 1: having a household of termites. Everything looks fine on the outside,
Speaker 1: nobody's talking about it, nobody has any clue. But before
Speaker 1: it's over, it's going to be the only thing that matters.
Speaker 1: How much did the FBI raid on Maral logo. How
Speaker 1: much has that impacted things or or has it? Well
Speaker 1: remember that part about how it's switch party can get
Speaker 1: closer to the turnout. That's that helped the Republicans get closer.
Speaker 1: There was a level. I mean there was and I
Speaker 1: saw this in early the Republicans. We're so angry at
Speaker 1: all the nonsense in the summer of and all the
Speaker 1: masks mandate and all I just all the COVID nonsense,
Speaker 1: all the statue being torn down, all the approaches. They
Speaker 1: were just so angry, and it was like the only
Speaker 1: way to scratch that itch was to vote. The only
Speaker 1: way to get some release from that pressure was to vote.
Speaker 1: And I'm seeing them feel that way again, and I'm
Speaker 1: seeing the Democrats certainly motivated, but not like that. And
Speaker 1: then there are people in the middle that are just
Speaker 1: I just almost like in Trump selection where I said
Speaker 1: that people a lot of people voted for Trump. They
Speaker 1: didn't like Trump, that's necessarily. They just saw Trump as
Speaker 1: a big old monkey wrench that they could throw in
Speaker 1: the middle of a machine that was hurting them. They said,
Speaker 1: how to hate this system? How do I break it? Oh,
Speaker 1: that guy looks like a monkey rinch will break it.
Speaker 1: Let me throw it. That's what they wanted. And people
Speaker 1: just think this thing is dysfunctional. I mean, what we
Speaker 1: get what people are telling us is the government cares
Speaker 1: about all kinds of stuff I don't, and that would include,
Speaker 1: you know, constant pressure on Green New Deal stuff which
Speaker 1: pronounced people use, its establishing all of you know, the
Speaker 1: white supremacists as a priority for the military, and all
Speaker 1: the other things they see as nonsense and the things
Speaker 1: that do matter to people. Am I safe in my home?
Speaker 1: Are my children safe from fitting all? Um? Are people
Speaker 1: coming across our our border and making our communities less safe?
Speaker 1: Is the economy given me the opportunity to make a
Speaker 1: good living? Yeah? And somehow the government doesn't seem to
Speaker 1: be doing anything about that. In fact, seems to be
Speaker 1: working to the opposite effect. And it's it's like, why
Speaker 1: is the government working against me? I mean, I feel
Speaker 1: that way. You know, I think a lot of the
Speaker 1: people listening to this podcast feel that way. You know,
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people on the left. They're
Speaker 1: they're saying that the overturning of reverse Wade, that that
Speaker 1: is going to motivate you know, Democrats, particularly Democratic woman.
Speaker 1: Uh what are you saying in that? You know, how
Speaker 1: much of a motivating factor do you think that's going
Speaker 1: to be for the left? Well, first thing, I'll tell you,
Speaker 1: I think the luckiest thing that ever happened to the
Speaker 1: conservative movement was that Leak Because this decision came out
Speaker 1: now as a decision, but almost like when you know,
Speaker 1: a government floats an idea to see what the reaction
Speaker 1: is and so then when happens, it doesn't seem so shocking.
Speaker 1: The shock value of versus Wade being overturned was cut
Speaker 1: in half by that Leak decision, and that was helpful
Speaker 1: for the conservative movement, uh in general. Now, once the
Speaker 1: decision came out, it upset them, but it wasn't It
Speaker 1: wasn't as bad as it could have been. It what
Speaker 1: it wasn't overwhelming. What I see moving people was what
Speaker 1: happened in the days that followed, and that is some
Speaker 1: of these states moving quickly to make further restrictions on
Speaker 1: abortions and and and just kind of jump on this
Speaker 1: opportunity because maybe they hadn't done anything on abortion before
Speaker 1: that would now be legal. What we have found in
Speaker 1: our national surveys is that when you look at first
Speaker 1: trying you know abortion being legal. So p we have
Speaker 1: where do you draw the line? And what we find
Speaker 1: is an abortion for rape, incess, in life the mother,
Speaker 1: for trimester before a heartbeat. You have fifty percent of
Speaker 1: the population who says that's it, that's all you should have.
Speaker 1: You start getting into second trimester, third trimester partial birth,
Speaker 1: it keeps going down. Third trimester partial birth is only
Speaker 1: eleven percent of the population that's against. And so when
Speaker 1: the conservative movement right now is on heartbeat and not before,
Speaker 1: I mean not after rape, incess life the mother, then
Speaker 1: they have a winning majority. But when states start talking
Speaker 1: about no restrictions, just life of the mother. None of
Speaker 1: these bills have passed yet, mind you, But when they
Speaker 1: talk about having special sessions and doing things like that,
Speaker 1: that's the stuff that is freaking in a lot of
Speaker 1: these people out And one of the lessons you would
Speaker 1: think that the right has learned from the left is
Speaker 1: when you get something you know, don't go for it
Speaker 1: all immediately. If you really want to restrict abortion, don't
Speaker 1: push it so hard that you lose a bunch of
Speaker 1: elections and then actually lose the ability to restrict abortion. Um.
Speaker 1: But I see them making the some of the concerns
Speaker 1: making the same mistake pushing this right now. And you
Speaker 1: can see the narratives of the insane stories about you know,
Speaker 1: people are gonna have me arrested for miscarriages and all
Speaker 1: this nonsense, and all this could be avoided if people
Speaker 1: would just say, well, we've got a great bill, you know,
Speaker 1: in are in any particular state. I know, for example,
Speaker 1: Georgia the heartbeat bill howl even passed. A lot of
Speaker 1: states have a heartbeat bill, and uh, you know, and
Speaker 1: you gotta work in the yard in every single state
Speaker 1: that has one. But um, moving further on it. And
Speaker 1: and of course the characterization by the other side that
Speaker 1: you are I mean, for example, the Kansas referendum, it
Speaker 1: was not about stritching abortion. It was about taking the
Speaker 1: power to make abortion law away from the Kansas Supreme
Speaker 1: Court and handing it to the Kansas legislature. That's all
Speaker 1: it was. But the other side came in. The thing
Speaker 1: was that was the most convoluted word referendum you've ever seen. Uh.
Speaker 1: And then the other side came in and said, this
Speaker 1: is a vote to an abortion and people on election.
Speaker 1: They believe that, and that's why I got shot down it.
Speaker 1: They thought it was literally voting and making all abortions illegal.
Speaker 1: So the other side is going to grandstand that they
Speaker 1: are going to um do all of these things. So
Speaker 1: now it's not the time to fight those battles. Now's
Speaker 1: the time to win your elections. And if you really
Speaker 1: want to and abortion it's a business. You get a
Speaker 1: heart of bill. Every abortion clinic in your state's going
Speaker 1: out of business because they just not have enough customers.
Speaker 1: And it's so much better when they go into business
Speaker 1: then when they're perceived to be shut down. Quick commercial break,
Speaker 1: Stay tuned. What are the top issues that you're saying
Speaker 1: right now? Right? I know you've kind of hit on
Speaker 1: some of it, but if you know, if you're just
Speaker 1: kind of looking at sort of like the top five
Speaker 1: and what you're saying, you know, what are they? Well,
Speaker 1: certainly inflation, Uh, the sense that the government is a
Speaker 1: little bit out of control. Um. It was funny because
Speaker 1: I was I was watching the UH Sunday Meet the
Speaker 1: Press numbers and they threw up on the screen. Now
Speaker 1: the average people more worried about the state of the democracy,
Speaker 1: and and they were painting it like these are all
Speaker 1: January six people. And I'm like, I know enough about
Speaker 1: Poe And if that question reads like it looks like
Speaker 1: it reads after the FBI rate to former president, they're
Speaker 1: a Republicans saying they word about democracy too, and you
Speaker 1: just ignored that that a piece of that poll. People
Speaker 1: are concerned about this big government's out of control. They're
Speaker 1: absolutely concerned. So there are people on the Republican side.
Speaker 1: I mean, here's the thing. If you say that talking
Speaker 1: about the election being stolen and questioning where the election
Speaker 1: was honest is a threat to democracy, then can you
Speaker 1: not also concede that if those people who say the
Speaker 1: election might have been stolen it were right, a stolen
Speaker 1: election is also a threat to democracy. I think you
Speaker 1: can so take us through for those who are sort of,
Speaker 1: you know, unfamiliar with how polling works, just kind of
Speaker 1: take us through a real quick like thirty foot this
Speaker 1: is how it's done. You don't have to you know,
Speaker 1: and I know that you guys have your proprietary stuff,
Speaker 1: so you know, you don't have to get into anything
Speaker 1: like that. But just but just like the bear, the
Speaker 1: bear basics, you know, for people to kind of understand
Speaker 1: how it all that's right now. Um, Well, with poles,
Speaker 1: you have to polls about what it's supposed to be.
Speaker 1: Is it get a snapshot of where the electorate is
Speaker 1: the day the days you're checking. Um, everybody uses different
Speaker 1: methods to collect that data. I believe that you need
Speaker 1: to use multiple methods because I think people live differently.
Speaker 1: I see Pauls all the time. They just do live
Speaker 1: calls and I I want to know what normal millennials
Speaker 1: and gen Z's answered the number they didn't recognize and
Speaker 1: talk to you for thirty five minutes none zero, because
Speaker 1: they don't do that. Uh we uh we make sure
Speaker 1: we we do calls home and cell phone. We we
Speaker 1: we we send texts and our text are text back
Speaker 1: and forth, not text link, so people more plantering. We
Speaker 1: send emails, We we provide them other callbacks like I
Speaker 1: can call back, I can take a poll. Lots of
Speaker 1: different methods. So we we have a lot of methods
Speaker 1: that we can ellect all our by data. Uh. We
Speaker 1: believe in short questionnaires, uh three four or five, six
Speaker 1: seven most we want to do because we think those
Speaker 1: are the kind of polls that people take. The first
Speaker 1: question every pole gets when they call a hous is
Speaker 1: how long is this gonna take? And if your answer
Speaker 1: something other than oh, just three minutes, oh, it's just
Speaker 1: five questions hanging up normally far because they got lives,
Speaker 1: they got stuff to do. So we believe short questionnaires,
Speaker 1: but we believe in large sample sizes. We don't want
Speaker 1: to come in your state and sample uh less than
Speaker 1: a thousand people every state poll we put out, and
Speaker 1: we're doing a lot of state polls this year. There
Speaker 1: are all a thousand people getting that marginary as low
Speaker 1: as we can get it. And so those are some
Speaker 1: of our key factors. And and we tried to do
Speaker 1: as little weighting as possible, which means we focus on
Speaker 1: trying to hit those markers. If I need to find
Speaker 1: you know, if if I'm doing a state and that's
Speaker 1: thirty four percent African American, I need to get thirty
Speaker 1: of my samples from African Americans. It's it's very important.
Speaker 1: I think that a lot of minority groups are often
Speaker 1: misrepresented because people get a small sample of them and
Speaker 1: wait that into what's called weighting it up, which give
Speaker 1: it a higher impact than it has. And you know
Speaker 1: you're not getting uh, you're not treating the people that
Speaker 1: you're polling that are small groups with respect when when
Speaker 1: you don't actually give them this give them the representation
Speaker 1: of the diverse opinions that would happen had you gotten
Speaker 1: the proper am out of samples. So we're big on
Speaker 1: getting our samples just right. We usually do the first
Speaker 1: couple of nights and then after what we're looking see
Speaker 1: where our holes are. Hey, you know what are we missing? Well,
Speaker 1: you know we're missing parents with school age children who
Speaker 1: live in this part of the state. And I say,
Speaker 1: all right, what method there was was finding the best too? Well,
Speaker 1: those guys say email on this part will be responding
Speaker 1: to email best. Then let's send a ton of emails
Speaker 1: to that part of the state for that group, and
Speaker 1: let's make sure we get them all. And that's differently
Speaker 1: what we don't have the static. We have to have
Speaker 1: x many emails in this many text Now we have
Speaker 1: to get the sample right. That's our priority. And you
Speaker 1: know we try to just be honest and transparent because
Speaker 1: unlike these media groups and unlike the universities, we you know,
Speaker 1: our business is you know, we put a lot of
Speaker 1: stuff out there for business development. And there are a
Speaker 1: lot of industry groups, um companies, funds, you know, people
Speaker 1: that run hedge funds, high net worth individuals who literally
Speaker 1: pay us for the services of providing them honest polls
Speaker 1: that are not skewed by parties or campaigns. Well, we
Speaker 1: appreciate the work that you're doing, and everyone continue to
Speaker 1: look for the trafalgar groups work. I know you came
Speaker 1: out with the poll h the other day with IO Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: So everybody keep your eyes on the work that Robert's doing. Robert,
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining The Truth with Lisa Booth.
Speaker 1: I really appreciate your time. It's great to be here.
Speaker 1: And I like truth el that's catchy. I like it.
Speaker 1: You know, it kind of rhymes, it goes well. So well,
Speaker 1: I appreciate the work you're doing, and uh, we'll we'll
Speaker 1: continue to pay attention. So thanks so much. I appreciate it. Okay,
Speaker 1: good bye. How even polls now are skewed? How even
Speaker 1: polls now our bias? It seems that bias is steeped
Speaker 1: into you know, pretty much every aspect of her life
Speaker 1: and uh so'm sorry. So it was an interesting conversation
Speaker 1: with Robert always looked to their polls. You know, I
Speaker 1: trust the guy. I think it's a really trustworthy guy.
Speaker 1: And he's a history of getting fixed right, which is
Speaker 1: hard to do, particularly when we learned the pooling business.
Speaker 1: So appreciate you for listening to the show. One of
Speaker 1: the thank John Cassio and my producer for putting the
Speaker 1: show together. Tune in every Monday every Thursday, but you
Speaker 1: can also listen throughout the week On The Truth with
Speaker 1: Lisa Booth