1 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: Hello, Stephanomics. Here the podcast that brings you the global economy, 2 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: and this week we are circling the globe to give 3 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: you an insight into three key pieces of the grand 4 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: economic jigsaw. We discussed week after week, people, property, and policy. 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,440 Speaker 1: People we know have been a highly sought after commodity 6 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: in the post COVID world, with employers everywhere struggling to 7 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: fill empty positions, but millions of people who did have 8 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 1: jobs before the pandemic still somehow missing. What's interesting, though, 9 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 1: is it's not only the low skilled, potentially unrewarding jobs 10 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: that are going unfilled. Fashion houses in Italy are also 11 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 1: struggling to find people who want to learn how to 12 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 1: hand stitch a belt buckle or fashion and elegant pair 13 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: of shoes. We go to the rolling hills of Tuscany 14 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: to talk to the head of the iconic fashion brand 15 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: Fendi about that shortage. In a for a while, we 16 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: also have the stunning news from Hong Kong that the 17 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: world's priciest housing market is finally getting very slightly more affordable. 18 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 1: Our chief Asia economy correspondent, Ender Current explores why prices 19 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 1: are falling there and whether three million dollars can now 20 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: buy a harbor view in just a few minutes. But 21 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 1: first we're going to Washington, d C. For arguably the 22 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: most important single policy decision in the entire global economy, 23 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 1: and it's happening again this week, as the US Central 24 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: Bank meets to set interest rates. It's particularly interesting this 25 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,839 Speaker 1: time around because we're expecting the first normal sized interest 26 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: rate rise half a percentage point since the FED began 27 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,959 Speaker 1: raising the cost of money in America aggressively some months ago. 28 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: The FED senior policymakers were also meeting the day after 29 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: a surprisingly weak figure for US consumer price inflation, holding 30 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 1: out the tantalizing possibility that the US might just be 31 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: turning the corn in its fight against inflation. Well, Bloomberg 32 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: Chief US economist Anna Wong is grabbing a few minutes 33 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: on a very busy day to talk to us. Anna, 34 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Um, First, I guess you should 35 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: just remind us what's happened so far. How much has 36 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: the FED tightened monetary policy, raised interest rates? And where 37 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,079 Speaker 1: is it left the official interest rate right now? So 38 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: this year we saw one of the most rap rapid 39 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: FED tightening cycle. It's the most rapid pace since the 40 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 1: nineteen eighties from zero percent of the Fed Funds rate 41 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: earlier this year, the Fed has hiked to currently four 42 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: percent on the upper end, and they're expecting to hike 43 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: fifty basis point later today too, so that the Fed 44 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 1: funds rate will will reach four point five percent after today. 45 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: And yes, we should explain I'm talking to you because 46 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: you'd be so busy immediately after the decision we're talking 47 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: at just before UM. But there is I think it 48 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: would be safe to say the world would be pretty 49 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 1: surprised if we didn't see that half a point interest 50 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: rate rise, even though there'll be other details that will 51 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: get later from the from the press conference, that that 52 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: seems to be a done deal. Is that fair? That 53 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: would be a fair characterization. And again, for people who 54 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: aren't sort of looking at every twist and turn in 55 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 1: the markets, just explain what interest rate they're actually setting, 56 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: because I know some people might think they're setting the 57 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: interest rate that we might be able to get immediately 58 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 1: in a savings account or that we borrow at if 59 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: we got a mortgage. What is the rate that they're 60 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: setting and why is it significant? Right? So, the Federal 61 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: Reserve set a rate called the Federal funds rate, and 62 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:46,119 Speaker 1: that's the rate that the borrow rate that the FED 63 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: lends to other branks. It will take some time for 64 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: other banks to channel that kind of higher or lower 65 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 1: interest rates to you know other you know, other entities 66 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 1: that require funds. Ultimately, what affects economy the most is 67 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: um the longer term rates. So think about um. When 68 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: you go buy a car, your you might need auto loans, 69 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 1: and those auto loans are tied to five tends to 70 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 1: be most affected by five year treasury yield, and then mortgages, 71 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 1: which will affects a lot of people are most affected 72 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: by ten year treasury yields. So when the Fed sets 73 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: a very short term rates, it's trying to affect the 74 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: rates down the yield curve. Ideally, when the Fed wants 75 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: to lower inflation, they want to raise the short term 76 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: rates and then and and as a result, the two 77 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 1: year rates will rise, and as a result, five year 78 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 1: rates will rise. But sometimes things just don't go their way. 79 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 1: I mean, for example, if um, you know, if if 80 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: suddenly there's a global financial turmoil, let's say in China, 81 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: then suddenly a lot of capital will flow out of 82 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: China and into the United States seeking safe haven protection 83 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: and that could loosen financial additions. So so so when 84 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 1: the FED sets monetary policy, trying to heighten monetary policy, 85 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: and it actually depends a lot more other than the 86 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 1: immediate instrument that they can control. Yeah, so it's sort 87 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: of setting the floor for rates and hoping that that 88 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: has a kind of ripple effect for the rest of 89 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: the market. But as you say, loads of other things 90 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: can get in the way, whether people are feeling confident, 91 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: whether banks are desperate to lend or desperate not to lend, 92 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 1: And there's lots of things that can have affected. So 93 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 1: it's certainly the case that the rate you hear about 94 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: when you hear about the federal funds rate or in 95 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: other countries, the base rate is not necessarily the rate 96 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 1: that you're going to be offered if you try and 97 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 1: borrow money. Now, I mentioned that there was a pretty 98 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: interesting inflation number that came out earlier this week that 99 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: surprised many people, was much lower than expected. Um. Does 100 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: that change the calculation that that Fed policymakers have been 101 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 1: making at their meeting, Well, it's certainly. The surprise yesterday 102 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: was really a big surprise, an unusually large surprise. UM. 103 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 1: Just to say, how how big of a surprise it is? 104 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 1: Most people on the Bloomberg survey, I think that it 105 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: would be the monthly change on the headline would be 106 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: point three somethings gone up just in one month, Yes, 107 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: in one month. And we were expecting a softer point too. 108 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 1: And there are some people who think it's point too, 109 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 1: but nobody thought it would be point one. So we 110 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 1: were just talking about the ripple effect of fitts Uh 111 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 1: monetary policy. Well, what what yesterday's report did was that 112 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: it lowered the ten year treasury yields by twenty bits 113 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: immediately upon its release. Two year treasury yields also plunged 114 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: by twenty basis point upon the release of the of 115 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 1: the report. And what that suggests to you is that 116 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 1: investors are revising down their outlook several months and years 117 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: ahead of where inflation could be. On a very basic level, 118 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: if you think interest rates on average, you're going to 119 00:06:57,400 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 1: be a bit lower over the next two years than 120 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,479 Speaker 1: you're the rate you can you will lend to someone 121 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,919 Speaker 1: for two years. Um goes goes down a bit. But 122 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 1: there was a there was an interesting kind of side 123 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: drama around that decision because, as you say, it was 124 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: a surprising result, and when you have a surprise, you 125 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: have the potential maybe for people to make money who 126 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: were betting on one side, and then the market moves 127 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 1: dramatically and actually there was some pretty suspicious goings on. 128 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: So tell us more about that, right, So, about a 129 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: minute before the data CPI data was released at eight thirty, 130 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: that was suddenly a significant amount of trading on a 131 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: treasury yield and UM in the direction of where where 132 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: if you we do get a dolvish CPI price, that 133 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: that would be where things would be trading. So so 134 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: by by being a bit early before you know everybody 135 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 1: gets the same data, somebody is making a lot of 136 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: money with that move. So it's very unusual and statistically 137 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: it just doesn't happen in in even in previous releases, 138 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: don't see that kind of UM you know, UM trading activity. 139 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: And also what makes it even more suspicious is at 140 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: the same time, a data delivery platform that's very popular 141 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 1: among pop policy makers and Wall Street analysts, Haver Analytics, 142 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: also crashed UM at the same time. And if you 143 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: put the two dots together, UM you know that trading 144 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: activity and also the crash of haveor it almost you know, 145 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: it's a theory, but it's not a Faverify theory. But 146 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,080 Speaker 1: a theory could be that somebody could be trying to 147 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: delay the reaction of you know, Wall Street analysts so 148 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: that they can prolong on that you know, early information. 149 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 1: If they do have early information of the CPI report, 150 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 1: then they could prolong that period where they're um trading 151 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 1: before everybody gets in on the information. And as you said, 152 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 1: they could be we could be talking about big money. 153 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 1: And certainly anyone used to work at FED, the FED 154 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 1: and some people in the U. S. Treasury would have 155 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: in the U. S. Administration would have prior notice of 156 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: that figure. And as you said, it was a surprise. 157 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: Anyone who looked at it would say that's going to 158 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: cause a market move. So there's now going to be 159 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: a real microscope on all the people who who did 160 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 1: see that data before, because we pretty explosive if they 161 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: had leaked it. I don't envy them. I think they're 162 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: in for a pretty uncomfortable UM week or so. But 163 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: just to get back to the sort of main story, 164 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:31,319 Speaker 1: I mean, Anna, when you sit around, I don't know 165 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: if you're going to be able to get to see 166 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 1: any of your family over the holiday period. But when 167 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 1: they say, Anna, you're the U S economist. Are we 168 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 1: nearing the end of this battle against inflation? What do 169 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: you say? And and they will hate me for it, 170 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: but I'll say, it's really unclear. UM. So so I 171 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: you know, economists did have a poor track record with 172 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 1: with UM with predicting the rise of inflation in the 173 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 1: last two years. But I think what we did learn 174 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 1: is that UM, there are ways that inflation could continue 175 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: to surprise. And number one is that if there are 176 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: unforeseen external supply shocks. So suppose that you know, China 177 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 1: reopened successfully in six months time and commodity prices spike again, 178 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: and that UM Russia decide to cut UM supply of 179 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: oil production so that so that they could punish those 180 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: who who who joined in on the G seven price caps. 181 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: Then what we see is that our surgeons of UH 182 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 1: inflation mid next year, and then inflation expectations would could 183 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 1: rise significantly, and then the Fed will have to you know, 184 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 1: revamp their their whole rates rise UM campaign, even after 185 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:57,559 Speaker 1: pausing around UM, you know, the second quarter of next 186 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: year as everybody currently expects. So so I think they're 187 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 1: looking ahead there's just so much uncertain certainty. And I 188 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: think the most useful way to look at the world 189 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,320 Speaker 1: right now is scenario planning, and just think about how, 190 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 1: you know, if what shocks could lead to a surprising 191 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: resurgence and inflation, or what shocks could lead to more 192 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:21,239 Speaker 1: deflationary pressure, And if you think about how the economy 193 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 1: is being affected by these higher interest rates. You know, 194 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 1: we talk about a recession being inevitable in the US 195 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: and other places because of this need to squeeze demand 196 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,439 Speaker 1: and bring inflation down. And are we are we seeing 197 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: that happen? And are you any clearer on whether we 198 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: will have a recession in the US? You know, there, Stephanie, 199 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: there has been a little bit of a disconnect. Everybody 200 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: became more gloomy about the U S economy. Recession talks 201 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 1: has increased significantly over the past two weeks. But on 202 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 1: the other hand, real data is surprising on the on 203 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: how resilient US consumers are. You know, we have seen 204 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 1: several data points that suggest, uh, people are still spending 205 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 1: so and what's the reason for that? And I think 206 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:14,839 Speaker 1: the reason is that there's still a lot of money 207 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 1: slashing around the economy. And even though Um, the pandemic 208 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: stimulus has long ended. The fact is a lot of 209 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 1: those money is still in the bank account of um, 210 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: you know, not only households but also state and local government. UM. 211 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 1: So looking forward to next year, even though our recession 212 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: probability models are flashing really read right now and suggesting 213 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 1: to us that a recession could happen around August or 214 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 1: September of next year, UM, there is a chance that 215 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 1: the recession might not happen then and then until much later, 216 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: just because um, you know, people do have savings and 217 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 1: so currently the recession and we are expecting would be 218 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 1: a shallow one where consumption would still be positive, where um, 219 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: you know, things are still pretty good from from the 220 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: household side. Unemployment rate rise to about five percent, but 221 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,200 Speaker 1: you know, all in all, it's it's not the two 222 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: thousand and eight kind of recession. And I guess that 223 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,320 Speaker 1: would be a decent Christmas present for people if you said, 224 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: if we were going to get rid of inflation without 225 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 1: having a deep, a deep recession and conceivably no recession 226 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: at all, although idea doesn't sound like you're betting on that, 227 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: that's right, and I won't thank you so much. Thank 228 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:49,359 Speaker 1: you Stephanie now I said the FED decision had global implications. 229 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 1: Hong Kong is kilometers away, but it does feel the 230 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: full force of US interest rate increases because its currency 231 00:13:57,520 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 1: is directly linked to the US dollar. So when the 232 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: FED hikes, Hong Kong has to hide two there, with 233 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 1: more hands on control from Beijing and the lingering impact 234 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 1: of China's COVID zero policies, higher interest rates are just 235 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: one of the factors making Hong Kong real estate ever 236 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: so slightly more affordable. Is in the current okay, I 237 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,359 Speaker 1: can I ask you a couple of questions. Where are we? 238 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: We are in the middle of one shy it's actually 239 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: one shy road, and we're waiting to meet our Ms Cheng, 240 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 1: Lily Chang, who is a real estate agent, and we're 241 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: hoping that Ms. Chang will be able to give us 242 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: a tour of a property and to explain to us 243 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 1: what she does. And it's a sunny Friday morning. My 244 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: producer Yang Yang and I are standing in front of 245 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: a fancy apartment building at the heart of Hong Kong Island. 246 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: The building is converted from an old food market that 247 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 1: dates back to the nineteen thirties. These days instead of 248 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 1: fresh food vendors. The Art Deco architecture is the home 249 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: to a booty cafe, a furniture shop, and a forty 250 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 1: three floor residential blocks. Wow, it's a view that grasps 251 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: almost everything quintessential of Hong Kong. From the apartment's thirty 252 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: third floor balcony, you can see the mountains, to see 253 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 1: the forests of skyscrapers, and of course, the famous horse 254 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: track in nearby Happy Valley. See the recent horse You 255 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: can see that. This is all the race track. You 256 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 1: see what you? Yeah, this one we just saw twenty 257 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: five million dollars. That's more than three million US dollars 258 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: for nine square feet million to save you a horse 259 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: racing ticket. What a Steal's nice to you have? The 260 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: douple benefits jokes aside, it might actually be a steel 261 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 1: Chang told us with that in the good years, she 262 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: could easily sell this apartment for two million Hong Kong 263 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 1: dollars more in much less time one months. Yeah, if 264 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 1: the good is the good time. The Hong Kong has 265 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: long been known as one of the world's least affordable 266 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: housing markets. That may be changing. The city now has 267 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: more empty office space than ever before, and the house 268 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: prices are in decline. So what dragged the markets down? 269 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: Chang says China's COVID zero policy had played a big role. 270 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: So we have before, we have a lot of the 271 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: Chinese people, they come easy to come Hong Kong and 272 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: they would make the investment in Hong Kong, or they 273 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 1: weren't Honko. But now this kind of China and Hong 274 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:10,640 Speaker 1: Kong these two three years. Hong Kong has only recently 275 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: reopened its international border to the world after being shut since, 276 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 1: but travel between Hong Kong and mainland China has been 277 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: dampened by Beijing's COVID policies, which are now in the 278 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 1: course of being eased. There's another complication here, the US 279 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve. Because Hong Kong's currency is linked to the 280 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: US dollar, the giant finance hoube effectively imports US monetary policy. 281 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: While the correlation isn't exact, it does mean that when 282 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 1: FED Chair Jerome Powell raises rates in Washington, the effects 283 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: of those hikes rickichet through Hong Kong's banking system. Just 284 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 1: like US, house prices are cooling in Hong Kong's residential market, 285 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 1: economists are estimating a fall in house prices of up 286 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 1: to thirty percent from their each trusting one to three. 287 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: Trusting one to three to get a better idea of 288 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: when the housing market might bounce back, if it bounces back, 289 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 1: I went to see Nelson Wong, who's among those seeing 290 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,360 Speaker 1: the hit to real estate, and Nelson Wall, executive director 291 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: at Johns Lane lessa for Hong Kong Research. From his office, 292 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: Wong pointed across the harbor to Hong Kong's old Airport. 293 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 1: It's now in part being redeveloped for residential units that 294 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: are struggling to sell. You can see the tact area 295 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: from here. Um you see the cruise terminal which is 296 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 1: right on the old Tech Airport runway, and then further 297 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: back is the various residential developments that are on the runway. 298 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 1: In Hong Kong, high real estate valuations have long been 299 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: a pillar of the city's economic model, along with spanking 300 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: and trade. With the city's borders closed to the rest 301 00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: of the mainland, the wobble in housing is all the 302 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 1: more acute. The unfortunate thing is that when Mr Powell 303 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: thinks of indust rates um, he would not take into 304 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,679 Speaker 1: account what happens in Hong Kong. Of course, what's happening 305 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong is just one part of a broader 306 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: global story. As real estate marketcy prices going to decline. 307 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 1: The worst inflation outbreaking decades hasn't turn sparked the most 308 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 1: aggressive Montre policy tightening cycle in forty years, which is 309 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: driving up mortgages and driving down house prices and demand. 310 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 1: Because of its huge multiplier effect, real estate is at 311 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: the center of economic activity everywhere, but in Hong Kong, 312 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: Nelson says, the authority's hands are tied. We think that 313 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 1: that the slowdown would continue if we do not act 314 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: at this point, and there are frankly not a lot 315 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 1: that the Hong Kong government can can act on. It 316 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,680 Speaker 1: cannot change the indest rate, It cannot change the political 317 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:05,440 Speaker 1: or geopolitical situations around US or in Europe for the meta. 318 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:09,120 Speaker 1: While Nelson sees a further decline in prices, he also 319 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 1: sees the bottom in Hong Kong's market. After my chat 320 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 1: with Nelson, I went to see another veteran of Hong 321 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 1: Kong's real estate market, Kimmi Kimany, to hear her views 322 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 1: on what lies ahead. This is Kimmi Kimani from Savills 323 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: residential services. I'm in charge of the residential team in 324 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 1: Hong Kong. So we do leasing, we do sales, we 325 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: do corporate tendency management, et cetera. We basically do everything, 326 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 1: except we don't find partners. Kimmi sees another decline in 327 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 1: prices next year and says selling high end apartments in 328 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: Hong Kong isn't like it used to be. The valuations 329 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 1: Kimmi mentions here are Hong Kong dollars. Everyone's looking for 330 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: a bargain. So if it's under under value, everybody wants it. 331 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 1: Let's say, if your property is you're asking for fifty million, 332 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: bank valuation is forty five million, and the seller is 333 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 1: selling it for forty million, Yes you will have bias 334 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: for sure, but otherwise not. People are just it's a 335 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: wait and see attitude at the moment for most of 336 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 1: the buyers. And I can understand why, because of the 337 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: economy of Hong Kong at the moment. How to real 338 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 1: estate market plays out in Hong Kong remains unclear. A 339 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 1: steep correction in Hong Kong could be a signal of 340 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 1: deeper gloom for the global economy. Still, those like Kimmy 341 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 1: saying Hong Kong has seen crisis before and has always rebounded. Yeah, 342 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: but saying that, I want to against say that the 343 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:35,119 Speaker 1: Hong Kong people have a lot of resilience. It's in 344 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:39,199 Speaker 1: their DNA, it's in our blood in Hong Kong, and 345 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: the current for Bloomberg News. Finally we have the sad 346 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 1: case of the missing artisan. And not so long ago, 347 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 1: I seem to remember we were said to be moving 348 00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: to a maker economy, with innovations in small scale manufacturing 349 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 1: and online retailing making it possible for more of us 350 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 1: to learn the satisfaction of making a fine object from 351 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 1: start to finish. It doesn't seem to have worked out 352 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 1: that way. In fact, it's harder than ever to persuade 353 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: young people to enter time honored manual professions. Australia, for example, 354 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 1: has a chronic blacksmith shortage. Dagger makers in Bali are 355 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: in short supply. Even Italy celebrated fashion and luxury companies 356 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: are struggling to find the people they need in a 357 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 1: country where the youth unemployment rate is nearly is our 358 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: Italian economy reporter Alessandra Mileccio. The first thing is a 359 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: lot of admiration for Italy to have kept this uh capacity, 360 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 1: you know, this industrial artisanal capacity, with this reactivity, this 361 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,360 Speaker 1: capacity to innovate. I mean, that's the first thing that 362 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: is really striking. If we want to do more objects, 363 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 1: we need more people. And if a generation goes whereas 364 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 1: an next generation. That's Fendy's new chief executive, Sage Brunswick. 365 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: When he arrived in Rome almost five years ago, he 366 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 1: knew there would be challenges, but the one he wasn't 367 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:25,440 Speaker 1: expecting a lack of artisans. After all, Italy is known 368 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 1: for its craftsmanship, from the violin makers, textile and master 369 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: painters of the Renaissance to modern fashion designers. Artisans in 370 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 1: Italy are a natural pair. But soon after taking over Fendi, 371 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: Runchfit realized that the skilled workers he's so admired were 372 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 1: clustered in small family firms, aging fast and beginning to disappear. 373 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 1: Is there an next generation Italians making enough children? Are 374 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 1: these children all interested to succeed their their parents in 375 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:02,159 Speaker 1: the company as they were before, or should we uh 376 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 1: participate to this elaboration of the next generation. So that's 377 00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: how the question comes. A shortage of skilled artisans is 378 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,359 Speaker 1: a global problem from Australia's blacksmiths too much of Europe's 379 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:19,200 Speaker 1: luxury sector. Young people are looking for less manual career options. 380 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: But what's startling about Italy is the magnitude of the phenomenon, 381 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 1: coupled with the youth unemployment rate. Near about one in 382 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 1: every two job postings goes unfilled. According to luxury trade 383 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: group ALTA Gamma, that means there will be ninety four 384 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: thousand missing workers in the fashion and jewelry sector in 385 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: the next few years. Stefani Lazeroni, director General of Altagama, 386 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 1: thinks the shortage is because of several factors, lack of training, 387 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:53,400 Speaker 1: a mismatch between supply and demand, and a misunderstanding about pay. 388 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,919 Speaker 1: I think that there isn't much difference in salary between 389 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: someone in the manufacturing sector and someone work in an office. 390 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: Entry level positions are the same around one thousand and 391 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: one thousand and two hundred euros a month, and then 392 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 1: it increases. These people are in demand because within the 393 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 1: next two to four years they will become rare and 394 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 1: so there's considerable potential for growth. Brunchwick decided to tackle 395 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,919 Speaker 1: the problem head on. He knew money couldn't be the 396 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 1: main reason for he had trouble finding artisans. It didn't 397 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: make sense to him. Why would unemployed youth not want 398 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,400 Speaker 1: to work for a luxury company on a regular contract 399 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 1: making things of beauty, especially if there were excellent long 400 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,400 Speaker 1: term prospects. The problem seemed to be education. He knew 401 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,680 Speaker 1: in other European countries, trade schools are common and effective. 402 00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 1: As we know the Japanese's training in the nine thousand 403 00:25:53,840 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 1: young people on technical jobs per year in the education system, 404 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 1: France about half of this, and Italy fIF in another world, 405 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:10,399 Speaker 1: so it means it doesn't exist. I mean education doesn't 406 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: provide enough technicians to the industry in general. So he 407 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 1: set out to make Fendi a leader in training. Brunchwick 408 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: had Fendi set up its own factories and try to 409 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,000 Speaker 1: find ways to train people, both in house and through programs. 410 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,159 Speaker 1: Likely adopted school initiative run by Alta Gamma in collaboration 411 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 1: with Italy's education ministry. It pairs trade schools with companies 412 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 1: like Fendi, Jeweler, Bulgarie, or brands like Lotto, Piano and Faragamo, 413 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 1: just to name a few. To find the right fit 414 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,920 Speaker 1: for Fendi, Brunchwick traveled to one of Italy's historic shoemaking districts, 415 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: an area nestled in the rolling hills of central Italy's 416 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 1: Marquet region. Here he opened a sleek new factory where 417 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 1: steel machines hum in a designer pavilion near the medieval 418 00:26:53,640 --> 00:27:00,040 Speaker 1: city of Fermo, mixing modernity and tradition. We just I 419 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 1: did to travel to the factory and meet the artisans 420 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,960 Speaker 1: and training Brica. Joe Malini is one of the high 421 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 1: school trainees in the formal program. The idea of shoemaking 422 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,280 Speaker 1: was not an easy self for the eighteen year old 423 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:19,880 Speaker 1: who first dreamed of becoming a hairdresser. Thefa don't want 424 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 1: to do this job because they see shoemaking as a 425 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,920 Speaker 1: job for losers. People say, oh, you make shoes, that's 426 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,640 Speaker 1: a bit useless. The idea of working in a factory 427 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 1: has people imagining a closed space, dark, repetitive work and 428 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: said workers. But it is not at all like that. 429 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:42,399 Speaker 1: Legenda trees Joe Malini's personal and family history. Watching her 430 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 1: mother struggle in the profession made her wary of trying 431 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 1: the job. My mother, when I told her I chose shoemaking, 432 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 1: said she wasn't sure I was going to like it. 433 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,439 Speaker 1: She had done it and was a bit scared that 434 00:27:56,480 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: that would be unhappy, but that didn't happen. She used 435 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 1: to work at home for many, many hours and small details. 436 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 1: She would do teaching for big name brands and attractively 437 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 1: perfect and it was very stressful for her. She would 438 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 1: work some day too, as she was paid by peace. 439 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 1: Here I see ladies working on stitching, and they seem happy, 440 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 1: they do a job they like. They look content to 441 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 1: be here because every day they also work on the prototypes. 442 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,400 Speaker 1: They do different things. So now the problem was perception 443 00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: and a Maria Bernardini, the principle of thermos or Studio 444 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 1: Ricchie Professional Trade School, says having brands like Fendi associated 445 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 1: with their internships makes a huge difference. The presence of 446 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 1: a prestigious brand helps a lot towards overcoming stereotypes, some prejudices, 447 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 1: a cultural with families that follow trends. Currently, the trend 448 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 1: is to choose high school and not trade school. If 449 00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 1: you consider that only twelve of stud chose a trade school, 450 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 1: changed one. Even Carmela Cabro, professor of modeling and Projects 451 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 1: at the school, agrees. She remembers the excitement of students 452 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 1: seeing the modern factory on their first day of the 453 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: internship annoying as professors who have done this type of 454 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: work with students for years have seen students who were 455 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 1: sent here as a last resort because they weren't doing 456 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 1: very well anywhere else, and they come to life and 457 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 1: really change. One of these wide Eye trainees is eighteen 458 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 1: year old Alessiabala, who, like her friend Jomarini, also wanted 459 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 1: to go into hair dressing before seeing how the factory 460 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 1: is run. While we spoke, she was watching an employee 461 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 1: put the finishing touches on a pair of elegant Fendi boots, 462 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 1: which retail for well over a thousand euros. Their gravity 463 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 1: defying heels are so complex the engineers had to study 464 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 1: how to distribute the weight effect a week before production 465 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,920 Speaker 1: could start. Bala says she can now imagine a future, 466 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 1: and Shoemaking comments, it's um. Everything begins on paper from 467 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,239 Speaker 1: an idea, but it's wonderful to see it evolve and 468 00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 1: I like to see that come about. I hope to 469 00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: come here to work one day to maybe learn more 470 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 1: and specializing sectors I like from the especially that's what 471 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 1: Brunchwig is hoping and why He's opened a second factory 472 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 1: in Tuscan, his leather making district for handbags. He says 473 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 1: maybe a TV show could help too, like the ones 474 00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 1: that have made cooking attractive. Frankly, to become a coup 475 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:41,960 Speaker 1: was not a dream when I was young. Okay, now 476 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 1: it's a dream. Okay, they did something something would uh 477 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 1: in communicating and the interest of this of this job, 478 00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 1: you just have to do the same thing. I mean, 479 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 1: if you're the one person able to transform an idea 480 00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 1: into a hand bag or into a shoe, it's a 481 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 1: lot of vague yeh. Infermore, I'm Alisandra Melia Actual for 482 00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Well that's it for Stephanomics. We'll be back 483 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,160 Speaker 1: next week with a sort of Christmas edition. In the meantime, 484 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 1: please rate us wherever you get this podcast, and check 485 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,680 Speaker 1: out the Bloomberg News website for more economic news and 486 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 1: views on the global economy. You really also ought to 487 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 1: follow at economics on Twitter. This episode is produced by 488 00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 1: Yang Yang, Sammer Sadi and Magnus Henrikson, with special thanks 489 00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 1: to Anna wan Alessandra Miliaccio, Flavio Rodundi, and Ender Current. 490 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 1: Mike Sasso is the executive producer of stephanomics,