1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to compare notes on a jobs Day 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: with Bloomberg Economics chief US economist and A Wong. And 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,599 Speaker 2: is this being framed properly in terms of moderation and 9 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 2: good feels on Wall Street that this economy might be 10 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 2: actually in better shape than a lot. 11 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 3: Of folks thought. 12 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, So notice how the bond market reacted in an 13 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 4: outsize way to just thirteen thousand upside surprise. I think 14 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 4: what this tells me is that the bond market and 15 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 4: a lot of traders were positioned for a very weak 16 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 4: prant coming in, and what we're seeing is more of 17 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 4: an unraveling of these positions as opposed of suddenly this 18 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 4: job's report inspired confidence in the labor market because when 19 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 4: you look at the numbers, the three month moving average 20 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 4: of monthly job gains is only one hundred and thirty 21 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 4: five thousand, and before this Job's report, even with our 22 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 4: expected lower jobstration in May, we thought that three month 23 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 4: trend was one fifty three, and of course, if you 24 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 4: use the consensus forecast coming in, their expected three month 25 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 4: average would be more like one seventy thousand. So the 26 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 4: trend basically the revisions, the ninety five thousand jobs downward 27 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 4: revisions led to a trend job growth pace that's actually 28 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 4: lower than what everybody thought. So I would say that 29 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 4: on net, the takeaway from this Job's report is actually 30 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 4: it's weaker than what most people thought. 31 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 5: Well, especially when we consider the kind of sectors where 32 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 5: we're seeing hiring versus where we're not very heavy concentration 33 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 5: and leisure hospitality in healthcare, not so much in the 34 00:01:58,600 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 5: other areas of the economy. 35 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 4: So we actually had expected that leisure hospitality would be 36 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 4: a weak point. And also transportation of warehousing given the 37 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 4: steep drop and imports container's volume, so I actually thought 38 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 4: that the fact that jobs are coming from there is 39 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 4: a bit suspicious and signify that there will be downward revisions. 40 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,799 Speaker 4: We saw that most of the downward revisions in the 41 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 4: last two months was in the transportation and warehousing sector. 42 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 4: Last month, based on the printed data, you would have 43 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 4: thought that that sector added jobs, but they are all 44 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 4: revised away today. 45 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 2: The federal government lost twenty two thousand jobs in May. 46 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 3: Is that the doge? And is that as bad as 47 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 3: it gets? 48 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:46,239 Speaker 4: So that part we actually expected that, partly because every 49 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 4: month you have a natural attrition rate of the federal 50 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 4: workforce of roughly thirteen thousand and without being replaced. As 51 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 4: there's this federal hiring freeze, you would naturally see at 52 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 4: least thirteen thousand jobs federal workers leaving the work right 53 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 4: through attrition. And then on top of that that you 54 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 4: have maybe seven thousand more from DOCHE. And we know 55 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 4: for a fact that many people are indeed being laid 56 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,639 Speaker 4: off from DOCHE, and they are not necessarily being paid. 57 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 4: I mean, the new trunch of federal workers that are 58 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,920 Speaker 4: laid off are not being paid till the end of 59 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:20,639 Speaker 4: the fiscal year. 60 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 5: So how is the FED looking at all of this? 61 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 6: Anna? 62 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 5: And I asked this knowing that President Trump is looking 63 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 5: at the FED, having today taken to true social to 64 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 5: say too late at the FED, which is how he 65 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,799 Speaker 5: refers to Chairman Jerome Pwell is a disaster. He goes 66 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 5: on to say, go for a full point rocket fuel. 67 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 5: Is there anything in this data that suggests the FED 68 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 5: will be thinking about cutting even a quarter point, let 69 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 5: alone on traces? 70 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 4: Right? It's interesting because the administration is characterizing this job 71 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 4: report is strong yet recommending one point of cuts, which 72 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 4: would be a panic cut if if the FED were 73 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 4: to go for that. So the Fed is more focused 74 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 4: on the inflation print. We are getting the cp I 75 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 4: report next Wednesday, and Wall Street is very vicxated on 76 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 4: the CPI report right now. 77 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 3: Interesting. 78 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 2: The President isn't going to stop teasing or urging the 79 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 2: FED share to do what he wants them to do. 80 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 2: What does the bond market think about this? Or are 81 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 2: we still taking this seriously or are we getting to 82 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 2: the point where there's not much reaction to it? 83 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, I think we have been seeing just a 84 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 4: small term premium being added the more Trump tweets about 85 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 4: Fed policy. But I think for the bond market, the 86 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 4: more important thing is this growth fear narrative. It seems 87 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 4: like they're just responding very outside, in an outside fashion 88 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 4: to any hints of recession or weaker heart data. 89 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 5: All right, analog of Bloomberg Economics where she's our chief 90 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 5: US economist, joining US on this job's day, Thank you 91 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 5: so much, and of course show when we consider what 92 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 5: the bond market is looking at here, it's not just 93 00:04:57,640 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 5: questions around the data and what it means for Mond 94 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 5: Harry policy, but as we've been discussing for weeks, if 95 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 5: not months now, they're also worried about fiscal policy and 96 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 5: the potential deficit impact of the bill still working its 97 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 5: way through Capitol Hill, and in that way, the bond 98 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 5: market and Elon Musk might be a little bit aligned. 99 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 6: As remember this whole big. 100 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 5: Breakup we've seen between Donald Trump and Elon Musk started 101 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 5: with Musk's criticism exactly of this legislation and how much 102 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 5: it could add to the federal deficit. 103 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 2: Even though we keep hearing from Republicans that it has 104 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 2: everything to do with the elimination of ev tax credits 105 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 2: and incentives inside the President's bill, Elon Musk said, it's 106 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 2: not about that, and we know the President just as 107 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 2: recently as a couple of weeks ago, said that's something 108 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 2: they never even talked about. I will note, by the way, 109 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 2: not much from Elon Musk in the last twenty four 110 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 2: hours on Twitter. 111 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 3: Maybe he's finally getting in that. 112 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 5: Yeah, maybe he's taking the advice of the person who said, hey, 113 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 5: you should cool off for a few days. 114 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 6: To which he responded, good advice. 115 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 5: The question is is a cooling off necessarily amending offenses 116 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 5: between the world's richest man and arguably the world's most 117 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,799 Speaker 5: powerful man. And on that note, we turned to Christan Nunu, 118 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 5: the former Republican governor of New Hampshire, who was ranting 119 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 5: a serial balance of power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Governor, 120 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 5: welcome back. It's always great to have you. You, of course, 121 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 5: are familiar with both of these characters that we are 122 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 5: talking about here. Are you surprised that there has been 123 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 5: a falling out between these two, or at the very 124 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 5: least surprised by the velocity of the break? 125 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 7: No, I am, I actually am. 126 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 8: I've worked with both of them, and I thought cooler 127 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 8: heads would prevail over the bill. I think Elon probably 128 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 8: He's Elon has never been great with understanding the value 129 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 8: of messaging and the timing, and he probably went a 130 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 8: bit too far, not just support, not just saying hey, 131 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 8: we need to push back on the big beautiful bill. 132 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 7: But I think it was the you went to. 133 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 8: One Pennsylvania without me comment that really probably come under 134 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 8: Trump's skin more than anything, and that escalated things. 135 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 7: I do believe though, cooler heads will prevail. 136 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 8: There'll be some reconciling, a private conversation here. Things will 137 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 8: quiet down. They'll get beyond the bill. They still want 138 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 8: the best for this country. They have, you know, on 139 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 8: a couple issues. They may different here and there, but 140 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 8: you know, things that are inflamed. I think the Democrats 141 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 8: are excited. There could be a breakup of the two bros. 142 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 8: So to say, But at the end of the day, 143 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 8: I think there'll be some Cold War peace found. 144 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 2: Well, Governor, it's good to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg. 145 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 2: We just heard from Elon Musk. He just posted while 146 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 2: you were talking on X very simply Bannon is a criminal. 147 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to get right to the point here. 148 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 2: I don't know if you've heard some of the remarks 149 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 2: that Steve Bannon has made about Elon Musk over the 150 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 2: course of this second term for Donald Trump. He weighed 151 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 2: in with Politico saying that he and Peter Navarro are 152 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 2: recommending executive orders to implement the Defense Production Act to 153 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 2: seize both SpaceX and Starlink take them under government control. 154 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 2: While Elon Musk is investigated for his immigration status, security clearance, 155 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 2: and drug use. 156 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 3: What is Maga's hang up with Elon? 157 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 8: Well, I don't think it's the Maga hang up or 158 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 8: even a Republican hang up. I think Bannon and a 159 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 8: few others have just never I understood the relationship that 160 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 8: that the President and Elon had. I think Bannon is 161 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 8: again he's giddy because finally the guy he never really 162 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 8: appreciated and wanted in the White House in the first 163 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 8: place is kind of getting his come up ins if 164 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 8: you will, with the President. So I think there's just 165 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 8: a select group of people that that are just like, okay, 166 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 8: you know, they're there. They there was never they didn't 167 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 8: have that relationship that that the President had. Remember, I 168 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 8: mean Trump and Elon would talk every day, multiple times 169 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 8: a day, every night. They have a very long, uh 170 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 8: and and firm relationship that is obviously under some severe 171 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 8: fire right now. 172 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 7: But it's not built on a on a house of cards. 173 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 8: I mean, it really is built on I think a 174 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 8: vision that that the two of them share. So ultimately, 175 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 8: you know, I don't think it'll ever go back to 176 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 8: the way it was. Don't get me wrong, but I 177 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 8: think cooler heads will prevail on both sides, especially Elon's, 178 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 8: but on both sides because you know, there's there's benefits 179 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 8: to that that each of them have to the other, 180 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 8: not just commercial and financial benefits, but political benefits and 181 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 8: and trying to get the country back on track. So 182 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 8: you know, I think this will be an interesting chapter 183 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 8: when someone writes the book on it all, to be sure, 184 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,479 Speaker 8: but I don't think it's going to define the presidency 185 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 8: or crash the bill or be. 186 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 7: It's more of a trivial thing. At this point, Well, 187 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 7: forget the book, go on. 188 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 5: I'm waiting for the docu series or whatever is going 189 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 5: to show up on eve. 190 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 6: If there's going to be a reunion of some tid 191 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 6: host I'm. 192 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 3: Watching them right for Bravo. 193 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 7: I think we're waiting fair enough. 194 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 6: We are living it certainly. Governor. 195 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:27,719 Speaker 5: We've spoken with you before on this program about how 196 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 5: you actually admired Elon Musk in the Department of Government 197 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 5: Efficiencies fundamental mission, which was to reduce the size of 198 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 5: the federal government get our fiscal house in order. So 199 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,680 Speaker 5: in that vein, do you think Elon is fundamentally wrong 200 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 5: about his accusations around this bill being too big to 201 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 5: be beautiful at having too much of an impact on 202 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 5: the debt and deficit of the United States. 203 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 7: He's right. Elon is right on this one. 204 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:54,839 Speaker 8: There's no question about that that the federal government has 205 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 8: to start making tough decisions. And I'm not And we 206 00:09:57,559 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 8: can put it in the Elon context. He was asked 207 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 8: to come in do things that no one else has 208 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 8: ever done in terms of exposing waste and fraud and 209 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 8: finding places to cut tens, if not hundreds of billions 210 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 8: of dollars. No one had done it, No one had 211 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 8: ever done it that fast and that strong. He did 212 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 8: it for the president. He sacrificed a lot for it. 213 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 8: And now he's like, wait, but I don't get anything 214 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 8: for this. I make all that sacrifice and you guys 215 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 8: aren't even gonna go through with it. Now there'll be 216 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 8: some recision bills, but already we all know those recision 217 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 8: bills are are are a very small piece of the 218 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 8: pie that the federal government really needs to take on. 219 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 8: So I completely get the frustration and the disappointment that 220 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 8: he has when it looks like that we're going to 221 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 8: the fiscal conservatives are adding to the debt, Like, what 222 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 8: are we doing here right, This is crazy. 223 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 7: So it's and it's not just him. 224 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 8: You see it from the more independent fiscal minds, whether 225 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 8: it's it's the Jamie Diamonds and you know, the hedge 226 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:52,760 Speaker 8: fund managers and these guys that really watch this economy 227 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 8: deeply saying yes, they are hedging themselves into other currencies 228 00:10:57,320 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 8: right now. 229 00:10:57,800 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 7: Not because they don't believe in America. 230 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:02,080 Speaker 8: But let's let's remember we don't no longer have a 231 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 8: triple bond rating, right, It's just good practice right now 232 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 8: from a financial standpoint to look at other currencies. We're 233 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 8: still going to be the reserve currency in the short term, 234 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 8: but there are threats to that. There's no question to that, 235 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 8: and nobody wants to see it. But it's all because 236 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 8: of the debt and inability. I believe there's a bit 237 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 8: of a political revolution coming where all this money that 238 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 8: goes to candidates is going to start to go back 239 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 8: to the states and issues where there's opportunities. I think 240 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 8: we've talked about it on your show before. 241 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 7: I'm a believer. 242 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 8: There's twenty seven states that have passed balanced budget amendment 243 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 8: resolutions for the federal government. 244 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 7: You need five or six more. 245 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 8: That's it, and then the states impose a balanced budget 246 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 8: amendment on the federal government. That's how the founding fathers 247 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 8: designed it. And we're right at the finish line there. 248 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 8: That's a great opportunity for an Elon Musk to come 249 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 8: in right and say, look, I'm going to fund that. 250 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 8: I'm not going to fund these conservative politicians anymore who 251 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 8: say one thing and don't do another. I'm going to 252 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 8: fund opportunities in the states to force the federal government 253 00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 8: to get their act together fiscally. So there's just going 254 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 8: to be a different mindset given that this was the 255 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 8: golden opportunity. This is where America said, we know you 256 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 8: have to make tough decisions. It might be a bumpy road, 257 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 8: We're ready for it. And then they backed off. They 258 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 8: all chickened out. Yet Josh Holly Center Holly, he's supposed 259 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 8: to be a conservative, and he's telling people we can't 260 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:18,439 Speaker 8: touch medicaid because it would be a political, political suicide. 261 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 8: We didn't elect you to go there and make decisions 262 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 8: based on politics. We elected you to go there and 263 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 8: make tough decisions because America has some really tough financial 264 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 8: times ahead of it and we're standing it. 265 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 7: And what a great opportunity. 266 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 8: For the first time in a long time, the public 267 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 8: is thinking about debt and deficit. They're willing to understand 268 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 8: that there could be some bumps in the or the 269 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 8: economy is strong. 270 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 7: What better time to do it with a strong economy. 271 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 8: And I know Trump wants the one percent cut right now, 272 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 8: I would I would tell the President don't waste it. 273 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 7: You're going to need that in the fall. 274 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 8: By the way, right you're going to see the jobless 275 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 8: number really skyrocket this fall. That's when all these federal 276 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 8: employees are going to really come on the rolls. I'd 277 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 8: love to know what Anna thinks about the timing of 278 00:12:58,600 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 8: all that as well. 279 00:12:59,240 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 7: She's brilliant. 280 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:02,959 Speaker 8: But these a lot of these these jobless claims out 281 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 8: of the federal government will really accelerate this fall, and 282 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 8: that's when you're gonna want the cut, not to one percent, 283 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 8: but maybe a quarter a half percent. And I think 284 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 8: I think the feder Reserve chair knows that. So all 285 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 8: these are big pieces of the puzzle and Republicans should 286 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 8: be doing their job, and they're they're they're kind of 287 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 8: blowing it, you know, So I get I get Elon's frustration. 288 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:23,560 Speaker 2: Here, Well, boy, We're gonna be playing back a bunch 289 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 2: of this tape in the fall. 290 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 3: Governor, we only have a minute left. 291 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 7: You got me going. 292 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 2: It sounds to me, it sounds to me like you 293 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 2: see Elon Musk as somebody who came to Washington and 294 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 2: saw too much to take it seriously. And maybe the 295 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: same dialogue you had with yourself when you had a 296 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 2: chance to run for Senate and you said, no way, 297 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 2: if you were in the Senate, you'd vote no on. 298 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 7: This Yeah, I'd vote no on this bill. Yeah I could. 299 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 7: I couldn't get it. 300 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 8: Look, if you're not appreciating that of all these smaller 301 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 8: issues we talk about, the debt and deficit are number 302 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 8: freaking one, and there's no two, three and four behind that. 303 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 8: Because the car crash is coming. It's not politics, it 304 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 8: is math, people, Right, Inflation is going to skyrocket when 305 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 8: we have to borrow, when social Security goes backrupt. So look, 306 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 8: everyone just needs to get their heads together, make some 307 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 8: tough decisions and put you know, America's financial future first. 308 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 7: The world is counting on us to do the right thing. 309 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 3: Wow, thanks for not making us have to bleep you. 310 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 2: Chris Snunu, the former Republican Governor of New Hampshire, come 311 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: back and see us soon with Kaylee Lines. 312 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. 313 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 314 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn 315 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 316 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 317 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 318 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 5: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew. Here in Washington, where 319 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 5: we all remaincaptivated by what is happening and or not 320 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 5: happening between President Trump and Elon muskause things do seem 321 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 5: to have quieted down in a big way today, in fact, 322 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 5: no vitriol being exchanged back and for on social media 323 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 5: or otherwise between the President and the world's richest man. 324 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 5: But yesterday was obviously quite a doozy, and it seemed 325 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 5: that the doom spiral really started when the President was 326 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 5: asked about the criticism Elon Musk was lobbying toward the 327 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 5: Big Beautiful Bill on social media when he was sitting 328 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 5: with the German Chancellor in the Oval Office. 329 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 6: This is what the President said at the time. 330 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 3: And if you saw the statements he made about me, 331 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 3: which I'm sure you can get very easily, it's very 332 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 3: fresh on tape. 333 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 9: He said the most beautiful things about me. 334 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 2: And he hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm 335 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 2: sure that'll be next. 336 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 3: But I'm very disappointed in Eland. 337 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 9: I've helped Elan a lot. 338 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 3: He worked hard and he did a good job. And 339 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 3: I'll be honest, I think he misses the place. 340 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 5: I think he got out there and all of a 341 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 5: sudden he wasn't in this beautiful oval office and he was, 342 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 5: and he's got nice offices too, But there's. 343 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 4: Something about this. 344 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 3: When I was telling the Chancellor, this is where it is. 345 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 2: Since then, President Trump says he wants to move on, 346 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 2: and reports earlier today of a phone call in the 347 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 2: offing between the White House and Elon muhe Us have 348 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 2: been disproven by Bloomberg. There is no phone call in 349 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 2: the works, according to people familiar with the matter, and 350 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 2: so we fester. 351 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,960 Speaker 3: Elon Musk is posting again. By the way, he took. 352 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 2: Quite a few hours off Twitter and is now tweeting 353 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 2: about Steve Bannon, calling him a criminal. Steve Bannon had 354 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 2: even worse things to say about Elon Musk. As we 355 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 2: assemble our political panel for their take on this, Here 356 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 2: we go again with Genie Shanzino, Bloomberg Politics contributor with 357 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 2: the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress. 358 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 2: Lisa Camuso Miller, Republican strategist, former RNC Comms director and 359 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 2: host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Lisa, I'm curious your 360 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 2: thoughts on this because Steve Bannon has been hating on 361 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 2: Elon Musk since long before he went into the White House. 362 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 2: Does President Trump move on and this becomes a Maga 363 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 2: versus Elon shouting match? 364 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 10: I mean, you bet the President doesn't have time for 365 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 10: this kind of back and forth, and it really does 366 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 10: seem very petty. But you know, if you're Steve Bannon 367 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 10: and you're looking for someone to go after, I certainly 368 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 10: think that this is going to be one. And the 369 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 10: other thing, Joe, that we've seen over the course of 370 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,679 Speaker 10: the last probably thirty minutes since I spoke to you 371 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 10: last was that it seems like the Democrats are making 372 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 10: some headway and some waves and you know, sort of 373 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 10: Olive branches into Elon Musk. So the Democrats are looking 374 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 10: at Elon Musk as someone that they could very well 375 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:27,880 Speaker 10: connect with and look for opportunities there. So there's going 376 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 10: to be a lot of repositioning and a lot of 377 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 10: interesting things happen over the course of the next couple hours. 378 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 10: And it's interesting, and it certainly is not a fight 379 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 10: that is going to go away anytime soon, but it's 380 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 10: going to probably land at Steve Bannon and Elon Musk 381 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 10: and Donald Trump. 382 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 11: The President will have other work to do and move 383 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 11: away from this. 384 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 5: Well, that's pretty incredible to consider, Genie, not only that 385 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 5: the President and Elon Musk can go from friends to 386 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 5: front ofies or perhaps outright enemies, but that Elon Musk 387 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 5: could go from arguably Democrats to me number one aside 388 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 5: from President Trump, to being something of an ally, something 389 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 5: of an opportunity. 390 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 9: I think that's gonna be very, very tough for Democrats. 391 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 9: You know, I'm here in New York and we are 392 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 9: looking at primaries in New York and New Jersey for 393 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 9: mayor and governor respectively. And I have to tell you, 394 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 9: almost every one of the Democrats running has commercials and 395 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 9: has made statements. A number of them running against not 396 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 9: just Donald Trump, but Elon Musk. So I'm not so 397 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 9: sure it's going to be easy for the Democrats to 398 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 9: go from making Elon Musk enemy number one and tied 399 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 9: intimately with Donald Trump to then embracing him as somebody 400 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 9: on their corner around their side. So I think that's 401 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 9: going to be tough in this election cycle. Long term, 402 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 9: maybe if it was an issue of funding, incredibly helpful 403 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 9: to the Democrats, but again, that's going to be a 404 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,479 Speaker 9: hard switch. Likewise, it's a heart switch, which for the 405 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 9: GOP to be selling to us that Donald Trump is 406 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 9: this cutter in chief. He is the person who can 407 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,239 Speaker 9: single handedly take the government and shape it up and 408 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 9: cut it and then turn around when he raises the 409 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 9: issue that the governor just mentioned to you about the 410 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,360 Speaker 9: deficit and say, oh no, no, no, he's wrong about that. 411 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 9: So on both sides, this is very tricky messaging for 412 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 9: these parties. 413 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 2: Lisa Elon Musk making the point last evening that Donald 414 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 2: Trump would not be the president if it were not 415 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 2: for the vast financial support and emotional support I guess 416 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 2: he gave not only the president but the Republican cause 417 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 2: on the campaign trail. The fact of the matter is, 418 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 2: though We saw his influence wane significantly as he tried 419 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 2: to get involved in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. We 420 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 2: covered that race together, where the conservative candidate lost. Musk 421 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 2: said to have egg on face and the Doge effort 422 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 2: forget the wall of receipts. He promised two trillion dollars 423 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 2: in cuts and came up with about nine billion, I 424 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 2: think was the number that we ended up with, at 425 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,640 Speaker 2: least in terms of this recision package. Did Elon Musk 426 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,400 Speaker 2: actually do anything to help Republicans in Washington? 427 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:10,679 Speaker 11: I mean, I think if your him, he probably have 428 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 11: buyer's remorse. 429 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 10: He spent a ton of money and has affected almost 430 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 10: zero change. In fact, if anything, not only did he 431 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 10: invest in his time and his effort in making cuts 432 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 10: and trying to do all of the things that he did, 433 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 10: he also suffered a tremendous loss when it comes to Tesla. 434 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,640 Speaker 10: So there's so much when you're Elon Musk, you're looking 435 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 10: at losses all across the board, and so any threat 436 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 10: that he has, really it comes up empty when you 437 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,439 Speaker 10: look at it from a Republican point of view. So 438 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 10: the threat of money in these races, it doesn't seem 439 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 10: to make a change. Because Elon Musk makes the fight 440 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 10: all about himself, and that, I think is what turns 441 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 10: this into more of a tit for tat and nothing 442 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 10: really that will have any kind of political fallout other 443 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 10: than Elon Musk eventually maybe quietly walking away. 444 00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 5: Well, when you consider the money here, it is worth 445 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 5: pointing out that his net worth went down thirty four 446 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 5: billion dollars yesterday alone, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Still, though, 447 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 5: leaves him with three hundred and thirty four billion dollars 448 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 5: in wealth, So all things are relative, Genie when we 449 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 5: consider those virtually unlimited resources. To Lisa's point about perhaps 450 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,920 Speaker 5: the money not being so much of a factor for Republicans, 451 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 5: do you really believe that even an incumbent Republican has 452 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 5: no reason to be concerned that Elon Musk could even 453 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 5: more quietly fund a harder to right, more fiscally conservative 454 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 5: primary challenger and put you in a tricky position in 455 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:34,159 Speaker 5: the twenty twenty six season. 456 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 9: He absolutely could. I mean, this is somebody who spent 457 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 9: what two hundred and fifty million dollars getting Donald Trump 458 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 9: elected and getting himself to lead Doge another fifteen to 459 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,719 Speaker 9: twenty on House races. If he spends just this scentilla 460 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,119 Speaker 9: of that that he could have a huge impact on 461 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 9: any of these individual races. And the other thing is, 462 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 9: first of all, I have to say, Elon Musk doesn't 463 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 9: do anything quietly. I think everybody is dreaming if they 464 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 9: think he can away quietly. But he's also got two 465 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 9: hundred and twenty million or so followers on Twitter, and 466 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 9: you can have a huge, huge impact that way as well. 467 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,360 Speaker 9: Just yesterday he was telling his followers to call their 468 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 9: congressmen and women and their senators and tell them to 469 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,879 Speaker 9: vote against the bill. As we all know, if you 470 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 9: are familiar with Congress, even just a few calls bombarding 471 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 9: an office can have a big impact. And he's got 472 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,480 Speaker 9: two hundred and twenty million followers and eyes around the 473 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 9: world on him, so he has a big megaphone there. 474 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 9: And I think Donald Trump knows that, which is why 475 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 9: he'd like nothing more than to reshape this conversation on 476 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 9: the bill. Probably smooth things over with Elon Musk and 477 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,640 Speaker 9: move ahead. And by the way, Kaylene, don't you think 478 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 9: Gwyneth Paltrow and Chris Martin should do some conscious uncoupling 479 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 9: helps Donald from But don't laugh up and get them, 480 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 9: get them moving forward. What happened to that? This is 481 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 9: more like Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt. It's not the 482 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:02,199 Speaker 9: way it should be. 483 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 5: You're the first person who has suggested this is like 484 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,119 Speaker 5: Bradulina all over again. 485 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 3: National inquirer Uh the other thing? 486 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 11: Please, all of those all of those followers. 487 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 10: Elon Musk has selected all of them because he owns Twitter, 488 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 10: so all of the followers, I'm not sure even all 489 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,399 Speaker 10: of them want to be following him. I think he 490 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 10: made sure that everyone was following him when he bought 491 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 10: that platform in the first place. 492 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 2: Let's go to the other extremely, So, what are the 493 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 2: chances that these guys make up this weekend and they're 494 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 2: holding some news conference together on Monday? Tesla stock is 495 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 2: up and the Doge's back, Baby, I mean, that's entirely 496 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 2: never gonna happen, because you can't come back from the 497 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 2: Epstein thing. 498 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 3: You can't. You say that and you're done right, take 499 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 3: the l. 500 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 11: Out a lover and it's over. Joe. 501 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 6: This is really the conversation we're having right now. 502 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 5: But there is serious consequence here. As we were just 503 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 5: discussing the potential campaign finance implications, the funding for candidates, obviously, 504 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 5: the various national security implications, the implications for Elon Musk's business, 505 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 5: for all of that conversation, though, Genie, are we really 506 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 5: sitting here on this Friday thinking that Elon Musk, through 507 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,120 Speaker 5: his social media tirades and falling out with the president, 508 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:26,400 Speaker 5: has actually fundamentally changed the trajectory of this legislation on 509 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 5: Capitol Hill? Or for all of his stomping his feet, 510 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 5: is this thing still destined to pass anyway? 511 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 9: I think in the end it likely still passes, But 512 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 9: we actually don't know the calls that I was just 513 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 9: talking about. That's a real risk for the Republicans. Then 514 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 9: the fact is we all talked about for so long. 515 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 9: They have a very narrow majority. It's not going to 516 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 9: take more than a few of them to say, you 517 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 9: know what, I'm not going to sign on to this 518 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 9: for this bill to go down. If I had to guess, 519 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,720 Speaker 9: which is never a good idea, Kayley, But if I 520 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 9: had a guess, I'd say Trump pushes this through. His 521 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 9: presidency depends on this. He's got to get this through. 522 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 9: But the reality is once you get it through, Historically 523 00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,119 Speaker 9: on the back end, when we've seen this happen like 524 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 9: with Barack Obama, for instance, Obamacare, your party loses that 525 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 9: mid term and they lose big. So President is going 526 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,439 Speaker 9: to have to sell this thing after it passes. And 527 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 9: the sales job so far has been a deplorable, deplorable 528 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 9: part of what the Republicans have tried to do. They're 529 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 9: going to have to do much better going forward. And 530 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 9: if they don't have Elon Musk on their side, that 531 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 9: is all that much more difficult to do. And you 532 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 9: just heard Governor soon who tell you the deficit is 533 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 9: it And so if Governor is saying that that, you 534 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,399 Speaker 9: know there's other Republicans and moderates out there who feel 535 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 9: the same way. 536 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 6: Lisa, we have thirty seconds left. 537 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 5: Do you still think this bill ultimately gets through. 538 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 11: The bill's going to get through, Kayley, It's going to pass. 539 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,399 Speaker 10: It's going to be a challenge, but it's going to 540 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,640 Speaker 10: get done because I don't think any of our US senators, 541 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 10: Republicans or Democrats are going to want to be on 542 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 10: the side of Elon Musk over the President of the 543 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:05,199 Speaker 10: United States. 544 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 6: All Right, we'll leave it there. 545 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,239 Speaker 5: Lisa Camusa Miller and Jeanie Shanzano our political panel on 546 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 5: this Friday thank you so much for joining us. Of 547 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,640 Speaker 5: course show, it's not just any Friday, it's also jobs Friday, 548 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 5: and we have to get back to the data. 549 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 6: Coming up. 550 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, good conversation coming up. 551 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 552 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,440 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 553 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 554 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 555 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:38,439 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 556 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 2: It's always about what's beneath the headlines that we're talking 557 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 2: about here on this program when it comes to economic data. 558 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,400 Speaker 2: And Mark Hamrick's had a couple of hours to dig 559 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,360 Speaker 2: through the report. He's the Washington Bureau Chief senior economic 560 00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 2: analyst at Bank Rate and I'm glad to say he's 561 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 2: with us in studio today. 562 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:56,879 Speaker 3: Mark. It's great to see you. Good to be with you. 563 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,439 Speaker 2: So when's the recession? You know, I'm supposed to not No, 564 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,720 Speaker 2: it's not today, But that was a conversation just a 565 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,679 Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago. Remember, recession ods were rising, the 566 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 2: tariff program destroyed the economy. 567 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 3: This is actually looking pretty good. What's your take? 568 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 12: Well, backward looking right. So this is a snapshot from 569 00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 12: around the twelfth of last month. I think recession odds 570 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:22,159 Speaker 12: are probably still elevated relative to what is nominal, but 571 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:27,199 Speaker 12: you know, down from the fifty percent odds that we 572 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 12: may have seen, you. 573 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 3: Know, early April. 574 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 12: You know, at bank rate, much the same as with 575 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:37,439 Speaker 12: your audience, we're always trying to take at bank rate, 576 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,160 Speaker 12: we're always trying to take a bit of a long 577 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 12: term view. I know for traders, those who are trying 578 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,920 Speaker 12: to get in and out of markets or positions, that's different. 579 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 12: The vast majority of Americans need to be thinking about 580 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:56,200 Speaker 12: the long term and part of that means saving for emergencies, 581 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 12: for the inevitable rainy day. Right the rainy day isn't 582 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 12: here right now. But what's the number one complain about 583 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 12: the economy. It's price levels. 584 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 3: What is likely to go up. 585 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:13,400 Speaker 12: In the current and intermediate terms, price levels. So there's 586 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 12: not going to be relief from that. And so if 587 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 12: you go out, you know, maybe not in front of 588 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 12: this office in downtown Washington, but a little beyond the belway, 589 00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 12: ask people how do you feel about the economy. They're 590 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,879 Speaker 12: not feeling too good about it, and so to them recession. 591 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 12: You can have your recession definitions and keep it. We'll 592 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,360 Speaker 12: make our own judgments about how we're feeling about the economy. 593 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 3: Okay, fair enough. What are you seeing in the numbers here? 594 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 2: Stronger than expected payrolls, steady unemployment rate is what the 595 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:41,959 Speaker 2: headline is going to read. When you start looking at 596 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 2: wages and participation. What does that tell you about the 597 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:45,920 Speaker 2: stage of the market. 598 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 12: Well, first of all, I don't want to lean too 599 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 12: far forward on the better than expected. The consensus that 600 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:53,720 Speaker 12: I was looking at was around one hundred and twenty 601 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 12: five thousand. We beat that by fourteen thousand. You know, 602 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 12: no one should be going out buying champagne. 603 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 3: Because of course, and by the way, that could be 604 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 3: revised in a month. 605 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,960 Speaker 12: As as that's perhaps the most important point, because this 606 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 12: was the fourth straight month of downward revisions, and the 607 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 12: sharpest downward revisions that we've had in that series minus 608 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:20,080 Speaker 12: ninety five thousand the previous two months. That takes a 609 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,840 Speaker 12: lot of the would be luster off of this beating. 610 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 2: Expectation understood well, when you consider the potential impact of 611 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 2: the DOGE and federal workforce cuts. A couple of months ago, 612 00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 2: you were reading and hearing all the same stories I was. 613 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,720 Speaker 2: It was going to crater the job market in certainly 614 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 2: areas like. 615 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 3: Washington, DC. 616 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 2: We still haven't seen the tens of thousands of job 617 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 2: losses on the government level, have we. 618 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:48,640 Speaker 3: They haven't showed up yet. 619 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 12: Many of these people are still on severance, so they're 620 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 12: not claiming it's not showing up. And you know, the 621 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,800 Speaker 12: good news for those affected people is that, you know 622 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:03,959 Speaker 12: they would be looking for work at a time when 623 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 12: the unemployment rate is still regarded as historically low at 624 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 12: four point two percent. But let's wait till September October 625 00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 12: and see what the jobless claims and that component look like. 626 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 12: As you know, Challenger Gray and Christmas earlier in the 627 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 12: week talked about accelerating job cut announcements in sectors where 628 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 12: we hadn't been seeing those occupying the top two positions, 629 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 12: that with services and retailing, and hundreds of thousands of 630 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 12: DOGE related job cut announcements elsewhere. So I think, you know, 631 00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 12: I'm not here to preach gloom and doom. I'm here 632 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 12: to preach caution sure, and to look past the immediate 633 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 12: headline numbers and try to think about a variety of 634 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 12: scenarios that could be developing here in the second half 635 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 12: of the year, which is weeks away. 636 00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,400 Speaker 2: Well, this is why we're asking these questions, Mark Hamrick. 637 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 2: We heard from President Trump this morning a number of times, 638 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 2: and I'm going to ask if his take on J. 639 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 2: Powell in a moment. But his first reaction was, America 640 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 2: is hot. This is all caps. Six months ago was 641 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 2: cold as ice, border is closed. Prices are down, wages 642 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 2: are up. Our own Michael McKee took a harder look 643 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 2: at that and went back six months and found that 644 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 2: none of that is actually factual. Prices are not down 645 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 2: from six months ago. Wages are not up from six 646 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 2: months ago. He's calling at the same time for a 647 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 2: full point cut from J. 648 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 3: Powell. It's not going to get that, is he. 649 00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 12: Well, first of all, you know, how does he come 650 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 12: to that conclusion or recommendation when on the one hand, 651 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 12: he's talking about a robust economy. 652 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're hot, but we need to cut. 653 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 12: And when do you cut by one hundred basis points. 654 00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 3: In a crisis? Yes? Exactly. Can you imagine? Okay, let's 655 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 3: talk about that. 656 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 2: Imagine if the FED announced today between meetings it was 657 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 2: cutting by a full percentage point, what would happen on 658 00:31:58,480 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 2: the market. 659 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,960 Speaker 12: I mean you'd have lights spinning in here, and it'd 660 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:04,400 Speaker 12: be breaking news all day long. 661 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 3: Been a long time since we've had a surprise. We 662 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 3: don't need to what's j Powell. 663 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 2: Looking at though, when he sees data like this and 664 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,760 Speaker 2: you're looking ahead urging caution six months from now, reminding 665 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 2: us of a dual mandate. 666 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 3: They're concerned about this job market too. 667 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 12: Well, First of all, you know, as you know, the 668 00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:20,920 Speaker 12: expectation right now is we don't have any rate cuts, 669 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,719 Speaker 12: probably for at least the next two meetings, which is 670 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 12: June eighteenth and then July, and then we get into 671 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:31,200 Speaker 12: mid September. I think that they'll continue to say that, 672 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,560 Speaker 12: and we're what a week and a half away from 673 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 12: the next announcement of news conference, I think they'll continue 674 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,920 Speaker 12: to say the monetary policy is in a good place. Obviously, 675 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 12: that's why they're not moving it, and they want to 676 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 12: be responsive to the way the economy unfolds in the 677 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 12: months ahead. You know, he regards himself and they have 678 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 12: a take with the law that they are effectively bulletproof 679 00:32:56,440 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 12: from the president's rhetoric, and so if anything, he wants 680 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,840 Speaker 12: to maintain the credibility not only of the institution that 681 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 12: he and his colleague serve, but also the roughly year 682 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 12: that he has left as chair, he wants to maintain 683 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,560 Speaker 12: the credibility of all that. So the last thing in 684 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 12: the world that he's going to do is get into 685 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,720 Speaker 12: an Elon must style you know, yeah, retort. 686 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:23,200 Speaker 3: I wasn't going to bring. 687 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 2: Up a lot Well, you know that's another show, right, Well, no, 688 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 2: we're going to do that as soon as we change 689 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 2: the topic. But look, you're right, a week from Wednesday, correct, 690 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,840 Speaker 2: we've got the next eighteen FED meeting. You haven't said 691 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 2: the word tariff yet. He's going to have to manage that. 692 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,160 Speaker 2: And the fact is nothing's really changed on that front 693 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 2: since the last FED meeting. He's waiting for what July 694 00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,320 Speaker 2: ninth to find out what the heck is going on. 695 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 12: Well, you know, I think in the environment we're in, 696 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:52,280 Speaker 12: the tariffs are what we're going to be dealing with 697 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,560 Speaker 12: for the foreseeable future. If there's one tool in the 698 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:59,960 Speaker 12: President's toolbox that is on the top aside from music, 699 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:04,479 Speaker 12: social media, it's tariffs. And we could try to, you know, 700 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,760 Speaker 12: Monday morning quarterback. All we want on where they end up, 701 00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:12,200 Speaker 12: where they're going, where they'll be Monday but I think 702 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 12: a baseline is you have to assume they're going to 703 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,240 Speaker 12: be with us for the foreseeable future in some form. 704 00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:21,439 Speaker 12: And let's think about the fact that we know that 705 00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:23,879 Speaker 12: you know, tariffs are a tax on imports. It has 706 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 12: to be paid by businesses and consumers or some combination thereof. 707 00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:31,120 Speaker 12: And they are going to be with us for the foreseeable. 708 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,480 Speaker 2: Two point eight trillion dollars the CBO says they'll raise 709 00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:34,640 Speaker 2: in the next ten years. 710 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,240 Speaker 3: What's the sustainability, Well, they've already changed. 711 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,279 Speaker 2: But it's fascinating that we're trying to get a tax 712 00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 2: cut done. Well, we're also essentially taxing Americans two point 713 00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,600 Speaker 2: eight trillion to pay for it. I'll get a lot 714 00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 2: of bad mail there, but maybe you can explain it 715 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:50,400 Speaker 2: to me. 716 00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 7: Mark. 717 00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:51,279 Speaker 3: It's great to have you. 718 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:53,920 Speaker 2: Happy job today, the great Mark Hamrick at bank Rate 719 00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:58,640 Speaker 2: and a great conversation for you here. Thanks for listening 720 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power pot Make sure to subscribe 721 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you 722 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 723 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:11,760 Speaker 2: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.