WEBVTT - Why No-Run First Innings Are a Trap (Ep. 165) 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:04.160 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros podcast. 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:05.920 For those of you who are wondering right now, hey, 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:07.480 who the heck is this new guy? 0:00:07.560 --> 0:00:08.560 I'm Thomas Biola. 0:00:08.560 --> 0:00:11.160 I am thrilled to be a part of the team. 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:14.000 Here ed Betting Pros. A little bit about me. I 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:15.920 am a New Jersey native who has been lucky enough 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:18.279 to make his way out to Las Vegas and the 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:21.400 wide wide world of sports betting that has erupted from that. 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:25.000 I'm a long suffering Jets fan, I'm an equally suffering 0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:28.560 American lover of soccer, and most importantly of all, I'm 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:30.400 here because I want to help us all win some 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:32.840 money together. And the best way to do that, especially 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:36.120 when you are fully admitted not a sharp better like myself, 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:39.400 is to talk to some sharp betters. And today we 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:42.199 have one of the sharpest. That is none other than 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:46.040 my friend, Jason Weingarten aka spread Apedia. Jason, How are 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:46.560 you doing today? 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:48.360 Pretty good? Thanks for having me on. 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:50.760 It is a pleasure to have you. I am really 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:53.199 excited to talk with you. Be his baseball season. It 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:56.360 is in full swing now and one of the things 0:00:56.360 --> 0:01:00.800 that you're seeing all across the gambling Twitter, no run first, 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:03.360 Everyone and their mother seems to be betting on these 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:07.200 nerfis right now. But I've noticed that you particularly have 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:09.280 been saying, Hey, wait a second, guys, this isn't a 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:11.319 good bet, and this is a trap that a lot 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:14.000 of betters are falling into. What is it about no 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:17.720 run first innings that makes these makes them attractive to gamblers? 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:20.880 And why is it that that is actually a flawed logic. 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.840 Well, yeah, I guess I shouldn't be surprised that we're 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:28.000 seeing so much attention on this kind of stuff, but 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:31.760 it always does surprise me because I don't spend a 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:34.679 lot of time on Instagram or on a lot of 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:38.680 these social media focused gambling and sort of things, and 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:41.120 I'll see it all of a sudden, I'll be like, wow, Like, 0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:44.680 you know, this guy has seventeen thousand followers, this guy 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:48.600 has forty thousand followers, like, and he's just viewing constant nonsense. 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:53.360 So I'm just kind of you know, I'm in my 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:57.440 own little world when it comes to gambling, and all 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:00.600 of a sudden, I start seeing all these people talking 0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:03.920 about no score first innings, and these are bets I 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:06.680 used to make when I was in college, you know, 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:10.840 which talking fifteen years ago now almost a long time ago, 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:14.000 when I was completely clueless, had no clue what I 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:18.000 was doing, and playing on a five dimes account, you know, 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:21.560 from the beach to Newport, I would bet no score 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:23.920 first innings and I would lose. I would lose all 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:26.680 the time, and I would have no clue why I 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:30.560 was losing. And it took years. It really took years 0:02:30.600 --> 0:02:33.360 to figure out what I was doing wrong in that I. 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:35.600 Was being an idiot exactly. 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:40.320 But yeah, basically, these no score first inning bets are 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:44.760 very attractive because you're done after six outs and people see, 0:02:45.000 --> 0:02:48.400 you know, two good pictures and they say, oh, well, 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:51.280 these guys can get six outs very quickly. 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:52.280 You know, I can. 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:54.840 I can bet this and be done in fifteen minutes. 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:58.640 But doesn't work like that. It's i mean, the first inning, 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:01.280 the first of the ninth innings, the highest scoring endings. 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:02.000 In baseball to begin with. 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:05.880 But you're getting the top of both both of the lineups, 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:10.240 and you're getting pitchers that aren't necessarily settled in you know, people, 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:16.120 people tend to have these sort of preconceived assumptions about 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:18.800 how how baseball works and how pitching works and the 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:22.320 pitchers just come out and could locate the strike zone 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:24.920 and you know, put their curveball where they want it 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:26.800 on the first pitch of the game. It's it doesn't 0:03:26.840 --> 0:03:27.400 work like that. 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:27.760 You know. 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:30.520 Some guys need need a couple of pitches. 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:33.000 Some guys need twenty pitches to kind of feel their 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:35.880 groove and you know, get the ball moving the way 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:38.520 they like it. And again, you're you're getting the top 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:41.440 of both teams lineups, their best three hitters. And if 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:43.680 you're not batting your best three hitters and top of 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:45.720 the lineup, you're, you know, you're doing it wrong. And 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:50.160 you know, roster construction, lineup construction. So I really think 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:55.360 that people are just being taught the wrong things. And 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:58.480 I mean literally, it's it's like the blind leading the blind. 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:01.720 You're you're listening to someone who's clueless telling you to 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:05.920 do something something negative, ev that you have no clue 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:08.680 you know what to do in the first place, and 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:12.800 you're laying a price or almost always laying one twenty 0:04:12.880 --> 0:04:16.080 one thirty one forty. I mean, I've seen people, you know, 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:19.400 laying minus one seventies and losing it and betting it again, 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:22.160 you know, and telling the problem I have, you know, 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:25.080 just to sort of clarify, I'm not telling you don't 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:26.240 bet whatever you want. 0:04:26.279 --> 0:04:28.040 Hey, it's your life, it's your money, and you want 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:29.359 to be stupid, you know. 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:33.800 I'm not here to tell you, you. 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:34.080 Know what, what to have fun on. 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:37.800 You know, it's your your Your betting experience is your 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:40.560 betting experience. But the reason I bring this up, and 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:45.160 I talked about it on Twitter mostly is because when 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:48.200 you have a platform and you work for a large company, 0:04:48.400 --> 0:04:50.400 you either work for a media company or you work 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:52.520 for a book, you know, and you're putting out content 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:57.520 on behalf of them, and you're teaching people bad habits. 0:04:57.560 --> 0:05:01.200 You're teaching them the incorrect way of doing things. 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:04.080 It's one thing to harm yourself. 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:05.720 I don't have a problem if you're gonna lose your 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:08.719 own money, but when you start losing other people's money 0:05:09.000 --> 0:05:11.960 and making a game of it and and telling them, 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:15.359 you know that that that this is fun and this 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:18.920 is a good way to sweat baseball, you know, I'm 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:22.240 I'm definitely slightly judging these people the same way I 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:26.920 judge people that bet the field on a craps table, 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:31.320 you know. Or it's just it's it's it's stupid, bad gambling, 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:34.440 and you shouldn't be teaching other people to be stupid. 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:37.200 You want to do it, do it yourself. But encouraging 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:40.280 other people is where I draw the line. 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:45.159 I completely feel the same way I as someone who 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:47.080 is in a media company and is supposed to be 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:51.200 giving people bets and trying to make people money. I 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:53.919 don't care if I lose every last time that I 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:56.480 have gambling. I mean I do care. That would be 0:05:56.600 --> 0:06:00.760 very suboptimal. But I take it way more personally because 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:02.680 I am giving other people advice. There are people who 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:07.200 are coming to this platform that are looking for good bets, 0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:09.240 that are looking for sound advice so that they can 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:11.320 go out and try and make money. It would be 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:13.520 predatory not to be trying to give them the best 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:16.440 advice I can. And you break down no run first innings, 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:18.359 and I believe you look at it and the number 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:20.840 is actually something like there's a run fifty three percent 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:22.080 of the time in the first inning. 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:25.279 I think it's closer closer to fifty one, forty nine 0:06:25.320 --> 0:06:29.039 to fifty one. It depends what the situation is, but yeah, 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:32.040 in general, you're gonna score a run on the first ning. 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:36.680 More often than not. And it's a price thing. A 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:38.359 lot of it's price things. So if you were to 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:41.120 tell me that I was getting, you know, plus one 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:43.800 fifty or plus one twenty five even on every no 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:47.480 score like, it's a different conversation. But exactly a lot 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:49.680 of these people who are giving out these bets are 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:52.800 are not price sensitive at all. You know, they have 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:55.359 no idea that it might be a good bet at 0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:57.360 minus one twenty and be a bad bet at minus 0:06:57.360 --> 0:06:59.479 one thirty or minus one thirty five or whatever number 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.080 they're giving it out at. And that's the problem is 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:07.200 you're either clueless or you're you know, you're doing this 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:07.880 on purpose. 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:11.040 You know you're you're you're you're doing this knowing that 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:11.440 you're wrong. 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:13.720 I don't. I mean, obviously one is worse than the other, 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:15.119 but both are bad. 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:17.520 And I pointed this out the first time. I talked 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:18.000 about it too. 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:21.960 But it's not just the content creators that that this 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:22.640 is an issue. 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:24.240 This means that everybody in. 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:27.400 The entire chain, the editors, the the you know, the 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:31.040 people on the tech side, and not a single person 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:33.280 is willing to say, hey, man, I think some of 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:36.920 this information we're giving out is you know incorrect, And 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:39.280 I mean it's it's not a single person failure. It's 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:42.640 a failure of you know, multiple people, and nobody's willing 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:43.880 to point out. 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:46.280 That you know, you can give out that gambling advice. 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:51.320 I mean, it's it's much more of an industry wide issue, 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:54.240 especially on this side, because we people are trying to 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:57.560 give out picks. You're if you're a novice, better who's 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:00.600 just going Okay, I'm getting started. I'm trying to figure 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:04.320 out where to go, who to follow because I don't 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:05.960 really have my own opinions yet. 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:07.080 I'm just getting into this. 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:08.160 You don't. 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.480 There's no system for going, oh wait, this guy knows 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:13.800 what he's talking about versus this guy who doesn't. Because 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:16.760 you're a novice, you you don't know the answers to that. 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:20.400 Everybody just seems like they're giving out stuff and you're like, Okay, well, 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:22.240 I'm just gonna believe this guy, and you're picking someone 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:22.800 at random. 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:24.280 And that's how. 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:28.280 Betters can fall into another huge trap, which are touts. 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:32.040 And we've seen that so many times. I mean, we 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:33.920 all know the stories and one of the most famous 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:37.839 ones that there is. It blows your mind because you 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:41.120 go how on earth are people falling for this? It's 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:43.520 a scam, but they they just don't know. 0:08:44.559 --> 0:08:48.080 Well, I think a lot of it people want to 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:53.240 offload the risk of winning to somebody else. Same thing 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:55.600 when you invest in a hedge funder, you invest with 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:59.240 an investment manager. It's not it's no longer your responsibility 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:02.920 whether you win lose the person that you're paying and 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:06.920 you know you've you've basically you know, you know, you 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:09.960 just don't have that responsibility anymore. It's it's it's a 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:13.600 great psychological thing for a lot of people, and all 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:15.040 they're looking for is to win. 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:16.800 They don't want to they don't want to learn. 0:09:17.280 --> 0:09:19.080 You know, there's a difference between wanting to learn to 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:23.000 be a better gambler and buying picks and plugging the 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:26.199 picks into your accounts and you know, my guy wins, 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:27.760 my guy loses, but you. 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:28.920 Have no clue what you're doing. 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:31.720 And a lot of those people and I think one 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:35.199 of the hardest things about you know, selling picks or 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:38.120 even having a social media following and giving out picks 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:38.760 for free. 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:41.520 If you like something, even. 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:44.800 A prop you know, I like, I'll give you actually 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:46.920 a real example earlier this week, I was like, I 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:50.440 like Alex Cobb to have over strikeouts at you know, 0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:53.960 on the prop builder, at every alternate number on the over, 0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:56.280 and he ended up getting hurt and getting pulled with 0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:58.160 four strikeouts, so they all ended up losing. 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:00.600 But you could bet from five. 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:02.640 It was like five, six, seven, eight, nine to ten 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:05.120 or something, and ten was thirty to one, and he 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:07.360 had he had pitched a ten strikeout game in his 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:09.960 first game of the season. So I just tweeted out 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:13.400 with a screenshot like, look like thirty to one. I 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:15.880 have an eight dollars limit on this, so I'm just 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:18.120 going to tweet it out to tell people, you know, 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:21.079 what a good bet this is if they can bet it. 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:23.600 You know, one hundred bucks at thirty to one's a nice, 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.320 you know, nice return on a guy getting ten strikeouts. 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:27.640 So I tweeted it out. 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:30.400 A couple of minutes later, without me even betting on it, 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:33.240 it had been bet down to fifteen to one, which 0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:35.680 again it probably didn't take a ton of money to 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:39.560 do that. But when you give out good bets, the 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:43.160 line moves, and when you're when you're getting paid to 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:47.000 give out bets and the line moves, your customers are 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:50.480 getting a worse line, and it's it's not fair to 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:55.240 them to do that number one, number two. 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:58.559 Even if you tell people you know, this is no 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:00.160 longer a bet past you. 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:02.599 Know, minus one twenty or minus whatever, just make it 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:04.840 up a number, the people are still gonna bet it 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:08.880 like and that it does not matter what you tell them. 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:11.160 The people are still say, oh, I'm only getting five 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:13.080 cents words, I'm only getting ten cents worths that I 0:11:13.120 --> 0:11:14.040 still want the action. 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:15.959 There's nothing you can do about that. 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:19.600 They don't understand that over time, they're gonna end up 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:23.280 losing money when you're winning money because of the price differences. 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:24.160 Uh. 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:26.959 And then the third thing is, you know, and then 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:30.280 this is really going to the Springer Taut flow chart. 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:36.559 But if you're not moving the market yourself, then why 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:39.040 should anybody else want to buy your picks? You know 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:42.199 if if if the market doesn't respect your picks, then 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:43.160 what's the point? 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:43.400 You know. 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:47.880 So there's there's a lot of issues with touts that, 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.679 I mean, it could be a three hour podcast just 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:51.720 talking about. 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:53.000 This this particular subject. 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:56.240 But the main issue that I want to point out 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.959 with with touts, I think is to at least educate 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:03.720 the audience that if somebody is charging fifty dollars a 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:06.440 month for the information or one hundred dollars a month, 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:08.280 they are. 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:09.600 Probably not a winning better. 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.240 And I don't mean this to be me and to 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.920 any people that are charging low prices, but if you 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:17.560 don't value your work more than one hundred dollars a month, 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:23.840 I mean, what what sort of economics in this gambling 0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:26.120 business would make sense to sell this information for one 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:29.040 hundred dollars. I want to sell my bets for tens 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:32.560 of thousands of dollars. If somebody wants wants, you know, 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.720 day to day access to me and discuss, you know, 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:37.720 to talk to me all the time, I mean, it's 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:40.040 worth real money. So if you're not valuing, if the 0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:44.520 tout himself isn't valuing his information, you know, and obviously 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:45.880 they're gonna say, well, I want to get it out 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:47.280 to more people and this and that. 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.600 Okay, But then it goes back to the flow chart. 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.240 If you're getting out to more people less money, the 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.920 market's either not respecting your opinion or you're killing. 0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:57.080 The number before it's going out. 0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:02.000 So you know, they're very very few situations where I 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:06.800 think paying for information makes sense and truthfully, at one 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:10.160 point or another, everybody's gonna end up paying for some picks. 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:13.040 You know, I myself am guilty of that. It was 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:15.360 fifteen years ago. I was in college. I had no 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:19.640 clue what I was doing. But you know, you're gonna 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:22.400 buy a pick, you're gonna buy a package or whatever, 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:26.200 and you'll you'll learn from the experience. But my advice 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.679 is that if you're buying something for fifty dollars or 0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:31.320 one hundred dollars, you might win a couple of games. 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:33.640 It might might be worth the action, you know, just 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:38.280 from getting getting action standpoint, But just keep in mind 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:42.120 that the person you're buying from doesn't value their information 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:44.920 enough to bet it enough to move the market, or 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:47.960 the market doesn't respect them, and that they don't respect 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:51.000 enough to charge, you know, hundreds, if not thousands of 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:53.320 dollars for it. So you know, you get what you 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.600 pay for. And that's that's my towt Brant. 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:00.800 And the other factor there is if you are paying 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:05.040 for this information, then you also in order to turn 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.760 a profit, because you're already down one hundred bucks or 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.920 fifty bucks or whatever you're paying for that price. You're 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:13.599 down that money to start, which means you need to 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:16.400 hit at a higher percentage just to break even anyway, 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:18.360 So you're just making it even harder for yourself. 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.400 Absolutely, And I mean there's a there's a tout calculator 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.680 that shows you what, you know, if you're paying this much, 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:27.040 how much you have to win at what percent to 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:31.280 break even? And like I said, if if the person 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:35.200 selling the picks could make money, they would already have 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.880 you know, they would have people backing them. If they don't, 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:42.360 if they're under capitalized. If look, if you're if you're 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:46.560 successful in anything in gambling, whether it's NFL or NFL 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:50.120 props or baseball baseball props, all the way down to 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:56.200 you know, USL soccer and Minor League UFC and minor 0:14:56.280 --> 0:15:01.360 league baseball and whatever obscure market, you're good. If you 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:05.080 can win and win, you know, sustainably in long term, 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:06.640 people will find you. 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.920 And if you don't have money, you know, there are plenty. 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.840 Of people out there who will gladly throw money at 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:17.320 you if you're a winner. Touting is is does not 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:22.320 make sense in very many cases. There are obviously always exceptions, 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:24.680 and there are you know, I know I know several 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:28.680 people who do it fairly successfully and you know, as 0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:32.240 fairly as possible. And you know, obviously getting into the 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:35.760 tout world is a personal decision, and some people do 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:40.000 it because they're they're not as you know, aggressive with risk, 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:43.440 as you know, other other people might be. Some people 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:47.560 like you know, some people like the having the customers 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:49.000 and the fans, and some. 0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:51.360 People do it because it's a good way to book people. 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.080 Like you know, you charge fifty bucks or one hundred 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:56.120 bucks for tout information, you get a whole bunch of 0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:58.680 gamblers signed up, and then you could book them on 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:00.280 a you know, like like you and things. 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:02.040 Stuff like that happens happens all the time. 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:05.840 So I mean there's there's a lot of ways, a 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:08.800 lot of different ways to make money in the gambling world. 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:11.080 And I think that's what draws a lot of the 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:16.080 personalities to it, is you can you have the flexibility 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:18.960 to make money in so many different ways. But I 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:23.240 think Taudy it is is, you know, not one of 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:25.400 the best. I think there are way better avenues for 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:27.440 making money in this business. 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:32.320 Now, another point that you brought up was the number 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:34.920 moving on people and them not realizing that the price 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.160 they're getting a bet at is a bad price. One 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:41.640 of the biggest traps that betters fall into, that old 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.960 saying you're not paying juice if you're winning. That's the 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:49.000 most erroneous saying in sports betting. I feel like line 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:51.720 shopping is one of the most important things you can do. 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.920 I try to never and granted for some betters, like 0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:59.160 if you're betting ten twenty bucks a game and no 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:02.400 price with that, I'm not trying to unit shame anybody here, 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:06.680 But if that's what you're betting, then okay, maybe five 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.840 cents of jews doesn't shake out to too much for you, 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:15.159 But as a practice anyway, it is good to just 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:17.560 be going, okay, I want to bet on this game. 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:18.520 Let me see what the line is. 0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:21.280 It this ten twenty dollars and you're not pretty sensitive. 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:23.440 What you're doing is you're creating a bad habit that's 0:17:23.480 --> 0:17:26.159 going to be harder to break when you decide to 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:29.200 up your unit to fifty dollars or one hundred dollars 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:32.200 or whatever whatever you get to, and eventually it'll add 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:35.959 up to losing money. And one of the things I've 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:39.800 said a lot recently is that being successful and gambling 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:42.520 a lot of times I mean, obviously it has to 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:46.199 do with working hard and you know, betting good numbers 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:47.520 and knowing what you're doing, et cetera. 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:51.399 But a lot of gambling is discipline. 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:56.320 And you know, unlearning bad habits, I think is the 0:17:56.400 --> 0:18:00.320 hardest thing that novice and new gamblers have to deal 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:03.879 with that they're you know, if you learn the wrong 0:18:03.920 --> 0:18:07.200 way or a bad way of doing things, it's gonna 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:10.520 take a lot of work to break that habit, just 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:11.840 like break in any bad habit. 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:17.560 Well, I definitely personally fell into this habit just a 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:19.840 little bit when I got started out because I said, Okay, 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:22.400 I have money loaded up into one account, so that's 0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:24.160 the account I'm going to bet on. And I get 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:26.800 that for new betters, maybe you don't want to have 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:30.239 accounts everywhere. It's a matter of convenience there, but at 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:34.120 least being aware and getting into that practice is so crucial. 0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:38.400 I haven't even upped my unit play that much over 0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:41.480 the course of my betting career, but I still as 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:44.960 a habit, you have to know, let me go line shopping, 0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:46.959 let me go and see what these lines are elsewhere, 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.480 and you don't even need to have a you know, 0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:51.439 you don't even need to have an account with every 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.360 book to go do that as a matter of fact, 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:56.280 and here comes the plug. 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