Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 1: For those of you who are wondering right now, hey,
Speaker 1: who the heck is this new guy?
Speaker 2: I'm Thomas Biola.
Speaker 1: I am thrilled to be a part of the team.
Speaker 1: Here ed Betting Pros. A little bit about me. I
Speaker 1: am a New Jersey native who has been lucky enough
Speaker 1: to make his way out to Las Vegas and the
Speaker 1: wide wide world of sports betting that has erupted from that.
Speaker 1: I'm a long suffering Jets fan, I'm an equally suffering
Speaker 1: American lover of soccer, and most importantly of all, I'm
Speaker 1: here because I want to help us all win some
Speaker 1: money together. And the best way to do that, especially
Speaker 1: when you are fully admitted not a sharp better like myself,
Speaker 1: is to talk to some sharp betters. And today we
Speaker 1: have one of the sharpest. That is none other than
Speaker 1: my friend, Jason Weingarten aka spread Apedia. Jason, How are
Speaker 1: you doing today?
Speaker 3: Pretty good? Thanks for having me on.
Speaker 1: It is a pleasure to have you. I am really
Speaker 1: excited to talk with you. Be his baseball season. It
Speaker 1: is in full swing now and one of the things
Speaker 1: that you're seeing all across the gambling Twitter, no run first,
Speaker 1: Everyone and their mother seems to be betting on these
Speaker 1: nerfis right now. But I've noticed that you particularly have
Speaker 1: been saying, Hey, wait a second, guys, this isn't a
Speaker 1: good bet, and this is a trap that a lot
Speaker 1: of betters are falling into. What is it about no
Speaker 1: run first innings that makes these makes them attractive to gamblers?
Speaker 1: And why is it that that is actually a flawed logic.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I guess I shouldn't be surprised that we're
Speaker 4: seeing so much attention on this kind of stuff, but
Speaker 4: it always does surprise me because I don't spend a
Speaker 4: lot of time on Instagram or on a lot of
Speaker 4: these social media focused gambling and sort of things, and
Speaker 4: I'll see it all of a sudden, I'll be like, wow, Like,
Speaker 4: you know, this guy has seventeen thousand followers, this guy
Speaker 4: has forty thousand followers, like, and he's just viewing constant nonsense.
Speaker 4: So I'm just kind of you know, I'm in my
Speaker 4: own little world when it comes to gambling, and all
Speaker 4: of a sudden, I start seeing all these people talking
Speaker 4: about no score first innings, and these are bets I
Speaker 4: used to make when I was in college, you know,
Speaker 4: which talking fifteen years ago now almost a long time ago,
Speaker 4: when I was completely clueless, had no clue what I
Speaker 4: was doing, and playing on a five dimes account, you know,
Speaker 4: from the beach to Newport, I would bet no score
Speaker 4: first innings and I would lose. I would lose all
Speaker 4: the time, and I would have no clue why I
Speaker 4: was losing. And it took years. It really took years
Speaker 4: to figure out what I was doing wrong in that I.
Speaker 3: Was being an idiot exactly.
Speaker 4: But yeah, basically, these no score first inning bets are
Speaker 4: very attractive because you're done after six outs and people see,
Speaker 4: you know, two good pictures and they say, oh, well,
Speaker 4: these guys can get six outs very quickly.
Speaker 3: You know, I can.
Speaker 4: I can bet this and be done in fifteen minutes.
Speaker 4: But doesn't work like that. It's i mean, the first inning,
Speaker 4: the first of the ninth innings, the highest scoring endings.
Speaker 3: In baseball to begin with.
Speaker 4: But you're getting the top of both both of the lineups,
Speaker 4: and you're getting pitchers that aren't necessarily settled in you know, people,
Speaker 4: people tend to have these sort of preconceived assumptions about
Speaker 4: how how baseball works and how pitching works and the
Speaker 4: pitchers just come out and could locate the strike zone
Speaker 4: and you know, put their curveball where they want it
Speaker 4: on the first pitch of the game. It's it doesn't
Speaker 4: work like that.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: Some guys need need a couple of pitches.
Speaker 4: Some guys need twenty pitches to kind of feel their
Speaker 4: groove and you know, get the ball moving the way
Speaker 4: they like it. And again, you're you're getting the top
Speaker 4: of both teams lineups, their best three hitters. And if
Speaker 4: you're not batting your best three hitters and top of
Speaker 4: the lineup, you're, you know, you're doing it wrong. And
Speaker 4: you know, roster construction, lineup construction. So I really think
Speaker 4: that people are just being taught the wrong things. And
Speaker 4: I mean literally, it's it's like the blind leading the blind.
Speaker 4: You're you're listening to someone who's clueless telling you to
Speaker 4: do something something negative, ev that you have no clue
Speaker 4: you know what to do in the first place, and
Speaker 4: you're laying a price or almost always laying one twenty
Speaker 4: one thirty one forty. I mean, I've seen people, you know,
Speaker 4: laying minus one seventies and losing it and betting it again,
Speaker 4: you know, and telling the problem I have, you know,
Speaker 4: just to sort of clarify, I'm not telling you don't
Speaker 4: bet whatever you want.
Speaker 3: Hey, it's your life, it's your money, and you want
Speaker 3: to be stupid, you know.
Speaker 4: I'm not here to tell you, you.
Speaker 3: Know what, what to have fun on.
Speaker 4: You know, it's your your Your betting experience is your
Speaker 4: betting experience. But the reason I bring this up, and
Speaker 4: I talked about it on Twitter mostly is because when
Speaker 4: you have a platform and you work for a large company,
Speaker 4: you either work for a media company or you work
Speaker 4: for a book, you know, and you're putting out content
Speaker 4: on behalf of them, and you're teaching people bad habits.
Speaker 4: You're teaching them the incorrect way of doing things.
Speaker 3: It's one thing to harm yourself.
Speaker 4: I don't have a problem if you're gonna lose your
Speaker 4: own money, but when you start losing other people's money
Speaker 4: and making a game of it and and telling them,
Speaker 4: you know that that that this is fun and this
Speaker 4: is a good way to sweat baseball, you know, I'm
Speaker 4: I'm definitely slightly judging these people the same way I
Speaker 4: judge people that bet the field on a craps table,
Speaker 4: you know. Or it's just it's it's it's stupid, bad gambling,
Speaker 4: and you shouldn't be teaching other people to be stupid.
Speaker 4: You want to do it, do it yourself. But encouraging
Speaker 4: other people is where I draw the line.
Speaker 1: I completely feel the same way I as someone who
Speaker 1: is in a media company and is supposed to be
Speaker 1: giving people bets and trying to make people money. I
Speaker 1: don't care if I lose every last time that I
Speaker 1: have gambling. I mean I do care. That would be
Speaker 1: very suboptimal. But I take it way more personally because
Speaker 1: I am giving other people advice. There are people who
Speaker 1: are coming to this platform that are looking for good bets,
Speaker 1: that are looking for sound advice so that they can
Speaker 1: go out and try and make money. It would be
Speaker 1: predatory not to be trying to give them the best
Speaker 1: advice I can. And you break down no run first innings,
Speaker 1: and I believe you look at it and the number
Speaker 1: is actually something like there's a run fifty three percent
Speaker 1: of the time in the first inning.
Speaker 4: I think it's closer closer to fifty one, forty nine
Speaker 4: to fifty one. It depends what the situation is, but yeah,
Speaker 4: in general, you're gonna score a run on the first ning.
Speaker 4: More often than not. And it's a price thing. A
Speaker 4: lot of it's price things. So if you were to
Speaker 4: tell me that I was getting, you know, plus one
Speaker 4: fifty or plus one twenty five even on every no
Speaker 4: score like, it's a different conversation. But exactly a lot
Speaker 4: of these people who are giving out these bets are
Speaker 4: are not price sensitive at all. You know, they have
Speaker 4: no idea that it might be a good bet at
Speaker 4: minus one twenty and be a bad bet at minus
Speaker 4: one thirty or minus one thirty five or whatever number
Speaker 4: they're giving it out at. And that's the problem is
Speaker 4: you're either clueless or you're you know, you're doing this
Speaker 4: on purpose.
Speaker 3: You know you're you're you're you're doing this knowing that
Speaker 3: you're wrong.
Speaker 4: I don't. I mean, obviously one is worse than the other,
Speaker 4: but both are bad.
Speaker 3: And I pointed this out the first time. I talked
Speaker 3: about it too.
Speaker 4: But it's not just the content creators that that this
Speaker 4: is an issue.
Speaker 3: This means that everybody in.
Speaker 4: The entire chain, the editors, the the you know, the
Speaker 4: people on the tech side, and not a single person
Speaker 4: is willing to say, hey, man, I think some of
Speaker 4: this information we're giving out is you know incorrect, And
Speaker 4: I mean it's it's not a single person failure. It's
Speaker 4: a failure of you know, multiple people, and nobody's willing
Speaker 4: to point out.
Speaker 3: That you know, you can give out that gambling advice.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's much more of an industry wide issue,
Speaker 1: especially on this side, because we people are trying to
Speaker 1: give out picks. You're if you're a novice, better who's
Speaker 1: just going Okay, I'm getting started. I'm trying to figure
Speaker 1: out where to go, who to follow because I don't
Speaker 1: really have my own opinions yet.
Speaker 2: I'm just getting into this.
Speaker 3: You don't.
Speaker 1: There's no system for going, oh wait, this guy knows
Speaker 1: what he's talking about versus this guy who doesn't. Because
Speaker 1: you're a novice, you you don't know the answers to that.
Speaker 1: Everybody just seems like they're giving out stuff and you're like, Okay, well,
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna believe this guy, and you're picking someone
Speaker 1: at random.
Speaker 2: And that's how.
Speaker 1: Betters can fall into another huge trap, which are touts.
Speaker 1: And we've seen that so many times. I mean, we
Speaker 1: all know the stories and one of the most famous
Speaker 1: ones that there is. It blows your mind because you
Speaker 1: go how on earth are people falling for this? It's
Speaker 1: a scam, but they they just don't know.
Speaker 4: Well, I think a lot of it people want to
Speaker 4: offload the risk of winning to somebody else. Same thing
Speaker 4: when you invest in a hedge funder, you invest with
Speaker 4: an investment manager. It's not it's no longer your responsibility
Speaker 4: whether you win lose the person that you're paying and
Speaker 4: you know you've you've basically you know, you know, you
Speaker 4: just don't have that responsibility anymore. It's it's it's a
Speaker 4: great psychological thing for a lot of people, and all
Speaker 4: they're looking for is to win.
Speaker 3: They don't want to they don't want to learn.
Speaker 4: You know, there's a difference between wanting to learn to
Speaker 4: be a better gambler and buying picks and plugging the
Speaker 4: picks into your accounts and you know, my guy wins,
Speaker 4: my guy loses, but you.
Speaker 3: Have no clue what you're doing.
Speaker 4: And a lot of those people and I think one
Speaker 4: of the hardest things about you know, selling picks or
Speaker 4: even having a social media following and giving out picks
Speaker 4: for free.
Speaker 3: If you like something, even.
Speaker 4: A prop you know, I like, I'll give you actually
Speaker 4: a real example earlier this week, I was like, I
Speaker 4: like Alex Cobb to have over strikeouts at you know,
Speaker 4: on the prop builder, at every alternate number on the over,
Speaker 4: and he ended up getting hurt and getting pulled with
Speaker 4: four strikeouts, so they all ended up losing.
Speaker 3: But you could bet from five.
Speaker 4: It was like five, six, seven, eight, nine to ten
Speaker 4: or something, and ten was thirty to one, and he
Speaker 4: had he had pitched a ten strikeout game in his
Speaker 4: first game of the season. So I just tweeted out
Speaker 4: with a screenshot like, look like thirty to one. I
Speaker 4: have an eight dollars limit on this, so I'm just
Speaker 4: going to tweet it out to tell people, you know,
Speaker 4: what a good bet this is if they can bet it.
Speaker 4: You know, one hundred bucks at thirty to one's a nice,
Speaker 4: you know, nice return on a guy getting ten strikeouts.
Speaker 3: So I tweeted it out.
Speaker 4: A couple of minutes later, without me even betting on it,
Speaker 4: it had been bet down to fifteen to one, which
Speaker 4: again it probably didn't take a ton of money to
Speaker 4: do that. But when you give out good bets, the
Speaker 4: line moves, and when you're when you're getting paid to
Speaker 4: give out bets and the line moves, your customers are
Speaker 4: getting a worse line, and it's it's not fair to
Speaker 4: them to do that number one, number two.
Speaker 3: Even if you tell people you know, this is no
Speaker 3: longer a bet past you.
Speaker 4: Know, minus one twenty or minus whatever, just make it
Speaker 4: up a number, the people are still gonna bet it
Speaker 4: like and that it does not matter what you tell them.
Speaker 4: The people are still say, oh, I'm only getting five
Speaker 4: cents words, I'm only getting ten cents worths that I
Speaker 4: still want the action.
Speaker 3: There's nothing you can do about that.
Speaker 4: They don't understand that over time, they're gonna end up
Speaker 4: losing money when you're winning money because of the price differences.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 4: And then the third thing is, you know, and then
Speaker 4: this is really going to the Springer Taut flow chart.
Speaker 4: But if you're not moving the market yourself, then why
Speaker 4: should anybody else want to buy your picks? You know
Speaker 4: if if if the market doesn't respect your picks, then
Speaker 4: what's the point?
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 4: So there's there's a lot of issues with touts that,
Speaker 4: I mean, it could be a three hour podcast just
Speaker 4: talking about.
Speaker 3: This this particular subject.
Speaker 4: But the main issue that I want to point out
Speaker 4: with with touts, I think is to at least educate
Speaker 4: the audience that if somebody is charging fifty dollars a
Speaker 4: month for the information or one hundred dollars a month,
Speaker 4: they are.
Speaker 3: Probably not a winning better.
Speaker 4: And I don't mean this to be me and to
Speaker 4: any people that are charging low prices, but if you
Speaker 4: don't value your work more than one hundred dollars a month,
Speaker 4: I mean, what what sort of economics in this gambling
Speaker 4: business would make sense to sell this information for one
Speaker 4: hundred dollars. I want to sell my bets for tens
Speaker 4: of thousands of dollars. If somebody wants wants, you know,
Speaker 4: day to day access to me and discuss, you know,
Speaker 4: to talk to me all the time, I mean, it's
Speaker 4: worth real money. So if you're not valuing, if the
Speaker 4: tout himself isn't valuing his information, you know, and obviously
Speaker 4: they're gonna say, well, I want to get it out
Speaker 4: to more people and this and that.
Speaker 3: Okay, But then it goes back to the flow chart.
Speaker 4: If you're getting out to more people less money, the
Speaker 4: market's either not respecting your opinion or you're killing.
Speaker 3: The number before it's going out.
Speaker 4: So you know, they're very very few situations where I
Speaker 4: think paying for information makes sense and truthfully, at one
Speaker 4: point or another, everybody's gonna end up paying for some picks.
Speaker 4: You know, I myself am guilty of that. It was
Speaker 4: fifteen years ago. I was in college. I had no
Speaker 4: clue what I was doing. But you know, you're gonna
Speaker 4: buy a pick, you're gonna buy a package or whatever,
Speaker 4: and you'll you'll learn from the experience. But my advice
Speaker 4: is that if you're buying something for fifty dollars or
Speaker 4: one hundred dollars, you might win a couple of games.
Speaker 4: It might might be worth the action, you know, just
Speaker 4: from getting getting action standpoint, But just keep in mind
Speaker 4: that the person you're buying from doesn't value their information
Speaker 4: enough to bet it enough to move the market, or
Speaker 4: the market doesn't respect them, and that they don't respect
Speaker 4: enough to charge, you know, hundreds, if not thousands of
Speaker 4: dollars for it. So you know, you get what you
Speaker 4: pay for. And that's that's my towt Brant.
Speaker 1: And the other factor there is if you are paying
Speaker 1: for this information, then you also in order to turn
Speaker 1: a profit, because you're already down one hundred bucks or
Speaker 1: fifty bucks or whatever you're paying for that price. You're
Speaker 1: down that money to start, which means you need to
Speaker 1: hit at a higher percentage just to break even anyway,
Speaker 1: So you're just making it even harder for yourself.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, And I mean there's a there's a tout calculator
Speaker 4: that shows you what, you know, if you're paying this much,
Speaker 4: how much you have to win at what percent to
Speaker 4: break even? And like I said, if if the person
Speaker 4: selling the picks could make money, they would already have
Speaker 4: you know, they would have people backing them. If they don't,
Speaker 4: if they're under capitalized. If look, if you're if you're
Speaker 4: successful in anything in gambling, whether it's NFL or NFL
Speaker 4: props or baseball baseball props, all the way down to
Speaker 4: you know, USL soccer and Minor League UFC and minor
Speaker 4: league baseball and whatever obscure market, you're good. If you
Speaker 4: can win and win, you know, sustainably in long term,
Speaker 4: people will find you.
Speaker 3: And if you don't have money, you know, there are plenty.
Speaker 4: Of people out there who will gladly throw money at
Speaker 4: you if you're a winner. Touting is is does not
Speaker 4: make sense in very many cases. There are obviously always exceptions,
Speaker 4: and there are you know, I know I know several
Speaker 4: people who do it fairly successfully and you know, as
Speaker 4: fairly as possible. And you know, obviously getting into the
Speaker 4: tout world is a personal decision, and some people do
Speaker 4: it because they're they're not as you know, aggressive with risk,
Speaker 4: as you know, other other people might be. Some people
Speaker 4: like you know, some people like the having the customers
Speaker 4: and the fans, and some.
Speaker 3: People do it because it's a good way to book people.
Speaker 4: Like you know, you charge fifty bucks or one hundred
Speaker 4: bucks for tout information, you get a whole bunch of
Speaker 4: gamblers signed up, and then you could book them on
Speaker 4: a you know, like like you and things.
Speaker 3: Stuff like that happens happens all the time.
Speaker 4: So I mean there's there's a lot of ways, a
Speaker 4: lot of different ways to make money in the gambling world.
Speaker 4: And I think that's what draws a lot of the
Speaker 4: personalities to it, is you can you have the flexibility
Speaker 4: to make money in so many different ways. But I
Speaker 4: think Taudy it is is, you know, not one of
Speaker 4: the best. I think there are way better avenues for
Speaker 4: making money in this business.
Speaker 1: Now, another point that you brought up was the number
Speaker 1: moving on people and them not realizing that the price
Speaker 1: they're getting a bet at is a bad price. One
Speaker 1: of the biggest traps that betters fall into, that old
Speaker 1: saying you're not paying juice if you're winning. That's the
Speaker 1: most erroneous saying in sports betting. I feel like line
Speaker 1: shopping is one of the most important things you can do.
Speaker 1: I try to never and granted for some betters, like
Speaker 1: if you're betting ten twenty bucks a game and no
Speaker 1: price with that, I'm not trying to unit shame anybody here,
Speaker 1: But if that's what you're betting, then okay, maybe five
Speaker 1: cents of jews doesn't shake out to too much for you,
Speaker 1: But as a practice anyway, it is good to just
Speaker 1: be going, okay, I want to bet on this game.
Speaker 2: Let me see what the line is.
Speaker 4: It this ten twenty dollars and you're not pretty sensitive.
Speaker 4: What you're doing is you're creating a bad habit that's
Speaker 4: going to be harder to break when you decide to
Speaker 4: up your unit to fifty dollars or one hundred dollars
Speaker 4: or whatever whatever you get to, and eventually it'll add
Speaker 4: up to losing money. And one of the things I've
Speaker 4: said a lot recently is that being successful and gambling
Speaker 4: a lot of times I mean, obviously it has to
Speaker 4: do with working hard and you know, betting good numbers
Speaker 4: and knowing what you're doing, et cetera.
Speaker 3: But a lot of gambling is discipline.
Speaker 4: And you know, unlearning bad habits, I think is the
Speaker 4: hardest thing that novice and new gamblers have to deal
Speaker 4: with that they're you know, if you learn the wrong
Speaker 4: way or a bad way of doing things, it's gonna
Speaker 4: take a lot of work to break that habit, just
Speaker 4: like break in any bad habit.
Speaker 1: Well, I definitely personally fell into this habit just a
Speaker 1: little bit when I got started out because I said, Okay,
Speaker 1: I have money loaded up into one account, so that's
Speaker 1: the account I'm going to bet on. And I get
Speaker 1: that for new betters, maybe you don't want to have
Speaker 1: accounts everywhere. It's a matter of convenience there, but at
Speaker 1: least being aware and getting into that practice is so crucial.
Speaker 1: I haven't even upped my unit play that much over
Speaker 1: the course of my betting career, but I still as
Speaker 1: a habit, you have to know, let me go line shopping,
Speaker 1: let me go and see what these lines are elsewhere,
Speaker 1: and you don't even need to have a you know,
Speaker 1: you don't even need to have an account with every
Speaker 1: book to go do that as a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: and here comes the plug. You can do that using
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros app. If you go online, download the
Speaker 1: app right now. If you're looking for free picks advice
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com, we have you covered with tips from
Speaker 1: over one hundred and fifty experts to make it easy
Speaker 1: for you to cash out. Download the app to get
Speaker 1: sports betting alerts, and this is the big part. You'll
Speaker 1: get notified a favorablets based online movements, consensus picks from
Speaker 1: some accurate experts around the industry, and vetted systems in play.
Speaker 1: Betting Pros monitors all of the major sports books, most
Speaker 1: accurate experts, and top systems to identify the best betting opportunities.
Speaker 1: Download today in the Apple or Google Play stores. And
Speaker 1: the important thing there is Betting Pros has a Betting
Speaker 1: Pros has a feature where you can just go and
Speaker 1: compare lines from across a bunch of different books, both
Speaker 1: in Vegas and throughout the country. And that is just
Speaker 1: so convenient. That is one of those awesome tools that
Speaker 1: you can go and use. And even if you're not
Speaker 1: going to.
Speaker 2: Use our tool, I hope you use our tool.
Speaker 1: But even if you're not going to go and check
Speaker 1: stuff like that, like that out because it is a
Speaker 1: convenient way to see that you're getting.
Speaker 2: The best line somewhere, and that's so important. Jason.
Speaker 1: The next thing that I wanted to ask you, what
Speaker 1: are some of the other mistakes that betters typically make
Speaker 1: when they're just starting out that maybe we haven't covered
Speaker 1: here so far.
Speaker 4: Well, there's, uh, there's plenty of things to look for,
Speaker 4: especially with baseball when you're getting content, and you know,
Speaker 4: one of the things I've talked about before, it's just
Speaker 4: there's there's so much content out there, Like there's just
Speaker 4: bound to be bad content by just by definition of
Speaker 4: how much there is, and it sucks.
Speaker 3: I get it.
Speaker 4: Like there's there's so many hours to fill and so
Speaker 4: much stuff to do that sometimes some some incorrect info
Speaker 4: is gonna get through, And a lot of times it's
Speaker 4: not necessarily somebody trying to to be bad. They just
Speaker 4: don't know any better, and no one's ever corrected them
Speaker 4: and told them, hey, that's not the way to do things.
Speaker 3: So, like one one thing I see a.
Speaker 4: Lot of is uh uh, you know, an analyst or
Speaker 4: a host on a show, say I don't want to
Speaker 4: lay minus two fifty with the Dodgers today, but I'm
Speaker 4: comfortable laying the Dodgers minus one and a half on
Speaker 4: the run line.
Speaker 3: That's that's somebody who doesn't know what they're doing.
Speaker 4: They think they're getting value, you know, laying one and
Speaker 4: a half at a lower number. It's not how baseball works.
Speaker 4: Like you know, the amount of times I've laid a
Speaker 4: huge favorite and one by one run and you know,
Speaker 4: versus the amount of times i've you know, I want
Speaker 4: to run line and I don't. I don't bet, you know,
Speaker 4: I don't necessarily bet the run line when I bet
Speaker 4: the money line. Actually bet very few run lines, you know,
Speaker 4: probably one of the smallest you know markets, I do, actually,
Speaker 4: But but I I think that's that's a huge thing.
Speaker 4: When you see somebody saying bet the run line because
Speaker 4: it's cheaper, that's probably somebody you don't want to take
Speaker 4: advice from them because they don't have any clue what
Speaker 4: they're doing. Then there's the batter versus pitcher people. And
Speaker 4: I think a lot of this has to do with
Speaker 4: prop betting, and a lot of the legal books have
Speaker 4: you know, an emphasis on offering as many markets as
Speaker 4: they can, so you know, unheard of if you if
Speaker 4: you go through a menu for a lot of these sites,
Speaker 4: the DraftKings, a FanDuel at MGM. Mostly I'm talking about
Speaker 4: non Novada books, but if you go through some of
Speaker 4: these legal apps during a game, like you could bet
Speaker 4: on every pitch, you.
Speaker 3: Could bet on every player to hit a home run.
Speaker 4: The depth of the offerings at these legal books are
Speaker 4: so much deeper than anything we were dealing with in
Speaker 4: the past couple of years, you know, in the old
Speaker 4: gambling world. So with these these deep, deep markets, you
Speaker 4: have a lot of people coming over from fantasy or
Speaker 4: DFS or that have a background and you know something else,
Speaker 4: not necessarily you know, sports betting, but sports, you know,
Speaker 4: some sports adjacent stuff, and they're very into these prop markets.
Speaker 4: A lot of a lot of people just specialize in
Speaker 4: talking about props, football props, baseball props.
Speaker 3: Whatever, and they win a lot.
Speaker 4: And you know, the thing is is if you really
Speaker 4: win a lot on props, a lot of these books
Speaker 4: are gonna limit you pretty quickly if you're not giving.
Speaker 3: Them action on you know, NFL sides and totals.
Speaker 4: And even if you are, you might still get limited
Speaker 4: because they just don't want the prop action you know,
Speaker 4: from from known sharps. But you know, you get these
Speaker 4: people who who not only bet props, but a lot
Speaker 4: of touts think they need to put a lot of
Speaker 4: analysis behind their picks, and that people want a paragraph
Speaker 4: justification behind everything. And that's something I've never been good at,
Speaker 4: because you know, I make a bet zones like why
Speaker 4: do you like this bad? Because I like the number,
Speaker 4: you know, because the number was was higher than what
Speaker 4: I thought it should be. I can't elaborate a paragraph
Speaker 4: or two paragraphs on that answer. I could just tell
Speaker 4: you because the number was not what I thought it was,
Speaker 4: you know, or what.
Speaker 3: I think it should be. That's the answer a lot
Speaker 3: of the time.
Speaker 1: And and when you when you talk about the number
Speaker 1: isn't what I thought it was, it's not so much
Speaker 1: that there's a system there. It's that this is years
Speaker 1: of experience and just years of doing this where you
Speaker 1: are at the point where you can just look at
Speaker 1: a board and identify a number and go, I just
Speaker 1: know that that's not right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, sort of. I mean, sometimes you know your own opinion.
Speaker 4: You're always you know when you're when you're bookying or Betty,
Speaker 4: and you know, your own opinion always comes into play
Speaker 4: and the ability to hold you know, to take on
Speaker 4: risk or you know that more you always say, well,
Speaker 4: like I think that's you know, that's gonna win. And
Speaker 4: the numbers off but mostly I mean mostly numbers based,
Speaker 4: and you know, you have to be able to quantify
Speaker 4: your edge and know you know, well, this is four percent,
Speaker 4: this is three percent, this is you know, half percent whatever.
Speaker 4: You know, it's a lot easier to know, you know
Speaker 4: what you're dealing with as opposed to to you know,
Speaker 4: just blindly fired and saying, oh, I have an edge,
Speaker 4: like it's it's better to be able to quantify quantify
Speaker 4: your edge. But but yeah, I mean there there are
Speaker 4: situations like prop markets where I could just kind of
Speaker 4: glance at them and you know, years of experience can
Speaker 4: can help you, you know, get something that might take
Speaker 4: somebody else slightly more time just you know, click click click,
Speaker 4: I'm done.
Speaker 3: You have been known to do that on occasion. But
Speaker 3: you can't get sloppy.
Speaker 4: If you get sloppy and lazy, you know, and start
Speaker 4: taking and slightly worse numbers, your your performance will you know,
Speaker 4: decay over time and uh, there are no margins for
Speaker 4: airs when it comes to the gambling. Really, I mean,
Speaker 4: you're very very thin margins all around. But what I
Speaker 4: was saying about the batter verse picture staff is you
Speaker 4: get people that come over from from Fantasy or from
Speaker 4: DFS and they're like, oh, like, I'm gonna use batter
Speaker 4: versus picture stats to determine this guy should be a
Speaker 4: home run prop bet today.
Speaker 3: You know, I just shake my head at stuff like.
Speaker 4: That, like it's another it's just clueless people, you know,
Speaker 4: kind of drawing, you know, conclusions from from noise and
Speaker 4: it you can make money, like it's fun, but but
Speaker 4: you're just you're throwing darts a lot of the time.
Speaker 4: Especially the batteris picture stuff is huge red flag.
Speaker 2: Now why is it such a red flag? What is
Speaker 2: it about batter versus pictures Specifically?
Speaker 4: It's almost completely insignificant what somebody did and six.
Speaker 3: At bats or ten at that. You know, when you
Speaker 3: you're getting into to hire.
Speaker 4: You know like, well this guy, you know, maybe like
Speaker 4: Freddie Freeman versus and trying to think somebody Jacob to
Speaker 4: Graham like they've played each other, you know, tens of times.
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter the sample size, it's so small relative.
Speaker 4: It just you're drawing conclusions from stuff that you really
Speaker 4: should should not be drawing those conclusions from. And you know,
Speaker 4: like it's it's just a it's a bad way of
Speaker 4: doing things, and it's a bad foundation to start thinking
Speaker 4: like that.
Speaker 2: That makes sense.
Speaker 1: It's you're looking at a sample size that's maybe on
Speaker 1: the high end, fifty or so data points, and that
Speaker 1: is nowhere near enough of a sample size too.
Speaker 2: Be it actually extrapolating something like this?
Speaker 3: Yeah, be really, man, you really shouldn't like thank it's crazy.
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Speaker 1: back to the show. You talk about investing in baseball cards.
Speaker 1: Do you use that knowledge of the baseball card market
Speaker 1: to impact your betting picks or vice versa? Do those
Speaker 1: two roads intersect at all?
Speaker 4: The gambling and the baseball cards do have some intersection. Mostly,
Speaker 4: the reason I invest in baseball cards is is as
Speaker 4: a derivative to futures markets, because a lot of times
Speaker 4: you know you might have a guy who's a short
Speaker 4: favorite in a Rookie of the Year market, but his
Speaker 4: card is cheap, you know, or relatively cheap, and you
Speaker 4: might have a guy like like Julio Rodriguez and Spencer
Speaker 4: Torkosen and Bobby Witt. They're all real high. They're the
Speaker 4: top three front runners for the AL Rookie of the Year.
Speaker 4: Their cards are prohibitively expensive. So I sold a Julio
Speaker 4: Rodriguez card for about three thousand dollars before the season,
Speaker 4: and I use that money to invest in Julio Rodriguez's
Speaker 4: Rookie of the Year future at like sixteen to one,
Speaker 4: because I was basically assuming that that card didn't have
Speaker 4: sixteen times.
Speaker 3: The value in it.
Speaker 4: If he if he's as good as I thought he
Speaker 4: could be, and if he does win the Rookie of Year,
Speaker 4: I could just buy that card back for you know,
Speaker 4: a stupid amount of money if I really wanted it still.
Speaker 4: But it's not going to go up sixteen times in value,
Speaker 4: which is what I would get off the you know,
Speaker 4: off the future. So sometimes you want to own the card,
Speaker 4: and sometimes you want to sell the card and use
Speaker 4: that money to make a pet. But I basically use
Speaker 4: the baseball cards as a way to play around in
Speaker 4: the futures market with exposure to guys for you know
Speaker 4: different It's basically reasons being that the futures market might
Speaker 4: might have a different price, you know, than the value
Speaker 4: of the card or vice versa.
Speaker 2: That makes perfect sense.
Speaker 1: I mean, you can actually balance these markets against each other.
Speaker 1: And the baseball card betting market is almost a little
Speaker 1: bit like gambling. You're playing essentially a version of the
Speaker 1: stock market. So why wouldn't you take that information and
Speaker 1: transfer it over to the betting market. That makes perfect
Speaker 1: sense to me.
Speaker 4: The baseball card market, though, has a lot more sort
Speaker 4: of barriers than betting. Like betting, you find a number,
Speaker 4: you make a bet, you win or lose. Baseball cards
Speaker 4: got a list it on eBay. eBay is gonna take
Speaker 4: twelve percent. You want to get it.
Speaker 3: Graded, that's you know, more money time.
Speaker 4: There's a huge backlog with the PSA grading right now,
Speaker 4: so you know, the cost a lot of times. The
Speaker 4: profit margin in the baseball card is not nearly what
Speaker 4: you think it's going to be, especially when you get
Speaker 4: done with all the vee and everyone else taking their
Speaker 4: their cuts in the process. So I mean, you really
Speaker 4: got to hit it. You either got to really hit
Speaker 4: it out of the park. You know, you're not looking
Speaker 4: to buy like a five hundred dollars card and sell
Speaker 4: for six hundred and seven hundred bucks. You're hoping to
Speaker 4: buy a five hundred dollars card sell for you know,
Speaker 4: two thousand and three thousand. You know, if you're not
Speaker 4: thinking like that, you're probably not going to get great returns.
Speaker 3: And you got to do the cards because you like them.
Speaker 4: But for those with incredible amounts of disposable income, the
Speaker 4: baseball cards and basketball card markets are incredibly.
Speaker 2: That makes sense to me.
Speaker 1: You've got to be looking for a higher ROI in
Speaker 1: the baseball card market than you do in the betting market,
Speaker 1: just because, like you said, of the time, energy, effort,
Speaker 1: and extraneous costs that go into that.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Now, now I.
Speaker 1: Want to ask you one more question here. I've got
Speaker 1: a weird one for you. In the stock market, like
Speaker 1: we just talked about, global issues can affect domestic stock prices,
Speaker 1: but no one really thinks about how these same issues
Speaker 1: like create efficiencies in the betting markets. Is there any
Speaker 1: time that you found this to be the case in
Speaker 1: the past where global events have actually helped create an
Speaker 1: edge for gamblers that no one's really seen. Do you
Speaker 1: see anything like that in the world today? Like does
Speaker 1: even Russia Ukraine manage to have some kind of impact
Speaker 1: in gambling.
Speaker 4: There was a lot of stuff during COVID that kind
Speaker 4: of had unusual you know, there's no precedent for the
Speaker 4: sort of how do you handicap this?
Speaker 3: He just kind of had to make some assumptions.
Speaker 4: But I remember, like there was some Nicaragua and baseball
Speaker 4: that I would watch and the guys were playing with
Speaker 4: masks on, you know, on the field, and I was
Speaker 4: just like, well, the team that's playing with the masks
Speaker 4: is gonna play worse. I know very little about Nicaragua
Speaker 4: and baseball, more than most, but still very little overall.
Speaker 3: But like I know that the.
Speaker 4: Shorts stop wearing a mask is you know, gonna just
Speaker 4: it's like having like a restrictor played on a carburetor.
Speaker 4: Like it's not fun to go out and play sports
Speaker 4: in a mask. You know, it's not fun around you know,
Speaker 4: you're just it's gonna impact your performance, especially if you've
Speaker 4: never done it before. So like I knew to bet
Speaker 4: against the team wearing the mask. Just it's stuff like that, like.
Speaker 3: Or there'd be the Remember there.
Speaker 4: Was a situation it was like Bolivia and soccer or something.
Speaker 3: Maybe it was Eruguay, I don't remember what country it was.
Speaker 4: It was definitely South America, where like the entire team
Speaker 4: got COVID the day of the match and they had
Speaker 4: to play you know, the like reserve side, the academy side,
Speaker 4: and so the market was just you know, it was
Speaker 4: just NonStop action on the other team, and like some
Speaker 4: books pulled at, some books are just like whatever bet it.
Speaker 4: So you get like random situations like that where entire
Speaker 4: teams are being replaced by academy sides. I'm trying to think, oh, yeah,
Speaker 4: so vaccines teams, teams would have like mass vaccine days
Speaker 4: and you know, they'd all get get the vaccine at
Speaker 4: the same time, and like they'd go out and play
Speaker 4: like crap the next day.
Speaker 3: This is an MLB.
Speaker 4: Like a lot of there were pitchers who were missing
Speaker 4: their next starts, you know, because just the vaccine took
Speaker 4: a couple of days out of them. But like I
Speaker 4: just kind of look on Twitter and oh, the Yankees
Speaker 4: all got their vaccine today, let's back against them tomorrow.
Speaker 4: And those mostly won. They weren't like one hundred percent,
Speaker 4: but they they hit it a you know, quite a
Speaker 4: quite a large clip.
Speaker 3: There were NHL teams too.
Speaker 4: I just knew, like, oh, look, this NHL team all
Speaker 4: got their vaccine, Like they're not going to go around
Speaker 4: and skate tomorrow night like they. I think the NHL
Speaker 4: ones were close to one hundred percent. So yeah, I mean,
Speaker 4: if you're willing to kind of extrapolate some some news
Speaker 4: and make some assumptions yourself, there's there's some good stuff.
Speaker 4: But Russia Ukraine, there hasn't been anything, just because I
Speaker 4: mean the markets, there's KHL, there's you know, there's there's
Speaker 4: Russian and Ukrainean soccer.
Speaker 3: I don't know anything about it, but in general, there
Speaker 3: hasn't been many.
Speaker 4: Exploitable that geopolitical betting angles with with the Russia Ukraine
Speaker 4: stuff anything, I can't think of anything. There's a lot
Speaker 4: of table tennis going on out of those countries. During
Speaker 4: COVID that was crazy. People were betting a lot on
Speaker 4: underground table tennis, but I haven't heard much about that lately.
Speaker 3: Unfortunately. Those were those are some interesting days.
Speaker 1: I feel like that market was definitely the definition of
Speaker 1: filling a need at a time, and maybe wasn't the
Speaker 1: burgeoning future of sport.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was.
Speaker 4: There were some crazy times when COVID, when everything was
Speaker 4: shut down. There was Nicaraguan baseball, Nick groguen basketball. I
Speaker 4: think Taiwan had some basketball, might have even been women's
Speaker 4: basketball for a while.
Speaker 3: Belarus was the center of the sports world and there was.
Speaker 4: A table tennis, There was out locked golf, and people
Speaker 4: were betting on game simulations like they plug in a PlayStation.
Speaker 3: And it was some weird times, man Like, I don't
Speaker 3: know what to tell you. Those are some dark days.
Speaker 1: They trust me, You don't have to tell me twice
Speaker 1: about that. I fully remember those days myself. I was
Speaker 1: one of the people that plugged in their PlayStation, went
Speaker 1: on Twitch and was just running Madden games. I wasn't
Speaker 1: taking any action on them, but I was just doing
Speaker 1: it to do some play by play stuff and just
Speaker 1: occupy my time. I am very thankful that we had
Speaker 1: done with the bulk of COVID at this point. Jason,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining me today, my friend.
Speaker 1: It was a pleasure talking to you. A gold mine
Speaker 1: of information for new betters and experience better is alike,
Speaker 1: things that maybe you don't realize that you're doing in
Speaker 1: your betting habits that you can try and break in
Speaker 1: better practices that you can be putting into place.
Speaker 2: It was a fantastic conversation. I really appreciate it. Where
Speaker 2: can people find you on social media and all the
Speaker 2: awesome work you're doing.
Speaker 4: You find me on Twitter at Spreadipedia, and then you
Speaker 4: can find me on Vson usually on I'm on the
Speaker 4: Numbers Game with Peel Alexander on Wednesday mornings, usually Wednesday
Speaker 4: at eight am. I'm usually on a couple couple other
Speaker 4: times throughout the week on different shows. And then I
Speaker 4: have my own podcast, wide World of Winegarden, which comes
Speaker 4: out almost daily on Visin and iHeartRadio and Spotify and
Speaker 4: YouTube and.
Speaker 3: Wherever you can get iHeartRadio podcasts.
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm usually usually available one way or the
Speaker 4: other in some form of media.
Speaker 1: All right, well that is going to do it for
Speaker 1: us here once again, Thank you so much, Jason. I
Speaker 1: hope you have a great rest of your day and guys,
Speaker 1: best of luck with anything you're betting this weekend. I
Speaker 1: hope you have a lot of fun and you know,
Speaker 1: let's catch those tickets