WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Stuart Kaiser & Tony Crescenzi

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>The single best idea and just today it was a

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<v Speaker 2>great day equity bond equity. Lisa Shallett was on fire

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<v Speaker 2>with a hugely aggressive note from Morgan Stanley that like,

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<v Speaker 2>you know what, things are pretty good, get on board.

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<v Speaker 2>I headlined out this morning in Vidia committing to invest

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<v Speaker 2>up to ten billion and anthropic. I don't know what

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<v Speaker 2>to do with all this, but we're really listening to

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<v Speaker 2>some of these year end summaries as they go to

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<v Speaker 2>their outlooks, people like Lisa Shallatt at Morgan Stanley, Stuart

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<v Speaker 2>Kaiser on fire this morning with City Group much more

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<v Speaker 2>in the trenches, the dynamics of the market.

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<v Speaker 3>Stuart Kaiser on the moment at hand.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think for Nvidia, you're paying for the forward grounds.

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<v Speaker 4>I'll look for Walmart, you're almost paying for execution. Like

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<v Speaker 4>these guys, you should have been masters at executing their

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<v Speaker 4>supply chain, their inventory management. You now have, you know what,

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<v Speaker 4>We're previously middle income spenders kind of trading down into

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<v Speaker 4>Walmart stores. So that's why Walmart's so important this week,

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<v Speaker 4>because they are so good at execution. They are such

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<v Speaker 4>a good lens into the broad based us consumer that

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<v Speaker 4>if they echo what we've heard from from home Depot,

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<v Speaker 4>from Costco, from Chipotle, from a Riley automobile home, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>if they echo that, I don't think the market's going

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<v Speaker 4>to take it well. Of all the new information we've

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<v Speaker 4>gotten in the last month, to me, the weaker consumer

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<v Speaker 4>earnings is probably the most, the newest and the most

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<v Speaker 4>concerning of all that information.

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<v Speaker 3>Steric Kaiser, let me explain this. And the Bloomberg dees screen,

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<v Speaker 3>the description screen world famous. I mean to me, the

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<v Speaker 3>YA screen, the yield analysis screen was what made Bloomberg Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 3>But the DS screens an important effort as well. Many

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<v Speaker 3>screens of the description of a given company. We report

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<v Speaker 3>two price earnings ratios, the present one looking back twelve months,

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<v Speaker 3>and then we do a calculation of the expected PE

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<v Speaker 3>looking at different algorithms in that and Nvidia is growing

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<v Speaker 3>like crazy, so their present PE is fifty ish and

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<v Speaker 3>their expected PE is forty ish. Walmart is ginormous. We

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<v Speaker 3>know that it's present PE is forty ish and its

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<v Speaker 3>future PE is forty ish. So there's a big, big

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<v Speaker 3>distinction wrapped around those hyperscalers, those tech moment and their

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<v Speaker 3>growth is well over in bonds. I've never seen this, folks,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm saying this in umpteen decades, I have never seen

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<v Speaker 3>a more optimistic note on fixed income than what I

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<v Speaker 3>saw from Tony Cressenzi today at Pimco. Tony Cressenzi, I'm

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<v Speaker 3>being brave in fixed income.

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<v Speaker 1>Five to seven percent is quite attractive for double A

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<v Speaker 1>minus double minds according to Standard and Poison Moodies indicatese

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<v Speaker 1>you have a ninety nine point nine eight percent chance

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<v Speaker 1>of getting your money back. Now if you're if you

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<v Speaker 1>believe that those yields are unattractive, you're thinking, then that's

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<v Speaker 1>because the Federal Reserve will fail. It will fail and

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<v Speaker 1>its efforts on price stability. It may continue to fail

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<v Speaker 1>in its efforts to achieve its two percent price target. Sure,

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<v Speaker 1>but that doesn't matter historically. What matters historically you can

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<v Speaker 1>go back to the green span, vulgar days, former Fed chairs.

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<v Speaker 1>Price stabilities are matter somewhere in the mid twos is

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<v Speaker 1>what defines it. We have all kinds of data to

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<v Speaker 1>show that markets are happy when prices are simply a

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<v Speaker 1>rent stable in a normal in a relatively low zone

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<v Speaker 1>called two point three four five six.

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<v Speaker 3>Tony Cscenzi of PIMCO.

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<v Speaker 2>We're in podcasts, We're on Apple, we're on Spotify, on

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<v Speaker 2>YouTube podcasts.

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<v Speaker 3>It's single best idea