1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 2: The single best idea and just today it was a 3 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 2: great day equity bond equity. Lisa Shallett was on fire 4 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,919 Speaker 2: with a hugely aggressive note from Morgan Stanley that like, 5 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 2: you know what, things are pretty good, get on board. 6 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 2: I headlined out this morning in Vidia committing to invest 7 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,559 Speaker 2: up to ten billion and anthropic. I don't know what 8 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,279 Speaker 2: to do with all this, but we're really listening to 9 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: some of these year end summaries as they go to 10 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 2: their outlooks, people like Lisa Shallatt at Morgan Stanley, Stuart 11 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 2: Kaiser on fire this morning with City Group much more 12 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 2: in the trenches, the dynamics of the market. 13 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 3: Stuart Kaiser on the moment at hand. 14 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think for Nvidia, you're paying for the forward grounds. 15 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 4: I'll look for Walmart, you're almost paying for execution. Like 16 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 4: these guys, you should have been masters at executing their 17 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 4: supply chain, their inventory management. You now have, you know what, 18 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 4: We're previously middle income spenders kind of trading down into 19 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 4: Walmart stores. So that's why Walmart's so important this week, 20 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,759 Speaker 4: because they are so good at execution. They are such 21 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 4: a good lens into the broad based us consumer that 22 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 4: if they echo what we've heard from from home Depot, 23 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 4: from Costco, from Chipotle, from a Riley automobile home, you know, 24 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 4: if they echo that, I don't think the market's going 25 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 4: to take it well. Of all the new information we've 26 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,679 Speaker 4: gotten in the last month, to me, the weaker consumer 27 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 4: earnings is probably the most, the newest and the most 28 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 4: concerning of all that information. 29 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 3: Steric Kaiser, let me explain this. And the Bloomberg dees screen, 30 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 3: the description screen world famous. I mean to me, the 31 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:45,839 Speaker 3: YA screen, the yield analysis screen was what made Bloomberg Bloomberg. 32 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 3: But the DS screens an important effort as well. Many 33 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 3: screens of the description of a given company. We report 34 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 3: two price earnings ratios, the present one looking back twelve months, 35 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: and then we do a calculation of the expected PE 36 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,920 Speaker 3: looking at different algorithms in that and Nvidia is growing 37 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 3: like crazy, so their present PE is fifty ish and 38 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 3: their expected PE is forty ish. Walmart is ginormous. We 39 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:19,679 Speaker 3: know that it's present PE is forty ish and its 40 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 3: future PE is forty ish. So there's a big, big 41 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 3: distinction wrapped around those hyperscalers, those tech moment and their 42 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 3: growth is well over in bonds. I've never seen this, folks, 43 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 3: I'm saying this in umpteen decades, I have never seen 44 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 3: a more optimistic note on fixed income than what I 45 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 3: saw from Tony Cressenzi today at Pimco. Tony Cressenzi, I'm 46 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 3: being brave in fixed income. 47 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: Five to seven percent is quite attractive for double A 48 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: minus double minds according to Standard and Poison Moodies indicatese 49 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: you have a ninety nine point nine eight percent chance 50 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 1: of getting your money back. Now if you're if you 51 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: believe that those yields are unattractive, you're thinking, then that's 52 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: because the Federal Reserve will fail. It will fail and 53 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: its efforts on price stability. It may continue to fail 54 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: in its efforts to achieve its two percent price target. Sure, 55 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: but that doesn't matter historically. What matters historically you can 56 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 1: go back to the green span, vulgar days, former Fed chairs. 57 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: Price stabilities are matter somewhere in the mid twos is 58 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: what defines it. We have all kinds of data to 59 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,679 Speaker 1: show that markets are happy when prices are simply a 60 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: rent stable in a normal in a relatively low zone 61 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 1: called two point three four five six. 62 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 3: Tony Cscenzi of PIMCO. 63 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 2: We're in podcasts, We're on Apple, we're on Spotify, on 64 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 2: YouTube podcasts. 65 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 3: It's single best idea