1 00:00:01,520 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast. We are presented by 5 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm your host today, Brendan Glasheen, joined 6 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: by Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward. It's a UFC betting preview. 7 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 1: Welcome everybody, UFC Vegas seventy seven this weekend from the 8 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 1: Apex Center in Las Vegas. We have five fights on 9 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: the main card, eight prelims. We'll dive into underdogs, props, 10 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 1: our breakdown of the fight of the night, and then 11 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: some best bets before we wrap. So, as we normally do, 12 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: we'll start with the main event. All the fights this 13 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: week are availab on ESPN. We've got Holly Holme the 14 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: favorite at minus one eighty two over at Fandalra Bueno 15 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: Silva plus one forty two Buenos Silva going for a 16 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 1: fourth consecutive win to top ten bantamweight fight. Sean Zarillo, 17 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: as we normally begin, your assessment of the main event 18 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: and how you pick it apart to bet it. 19 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think on the things that we normally talk about, right, 20 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 3: the age differential, especially at a lighter weight class, you 21 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 3: kind of do have to lean to the underdog here 22 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 3: in Mayra Bueno Silva. In terms of the matchup, the 23 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 3: stylistic nature. I think Holly Holm this is a favorable 24 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 3: matchup for her, but she's forty one years old, ten 25 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 3: years older than her opponent, and as we regularly talk about, 26 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 3: when there's that big of an age gap between UFC opponents, 27 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 3: especially when the opponent is forty years old, the younger 28 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 3: fighter wins about ten percent more often than the betting 29 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 3: market tells you that they are, so generally speaking, going 30 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 3: to point towards the younger fighter here based on the 31 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 3: age gap. Holly looked pretty solid in her last fight, 32 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 3: but the cliff is going to come at some point. 33 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 3: When it comes, it's going to be very dramatic. And 34 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 3: as we always talk about too in MMA, which is 35 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 3: one on one sport, when that athleticism drops off, it 36 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 3: is very apparent. You saw with Keith Lee or Kevin 37 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 3: Lee a couple of weeks ago, just looked like he 38 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 3: couldn't move because he looks so stiff after multiple knee surgeries. 39 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 3: Nico Price going game is Robbie Laller just there's this stiffness. 40 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 3: After you get a lot of injuries and a long 41 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 3: career and beat up, you know, the the athleticism just 42 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,239 Speaker 3: suddenly drops off of a cliff. So not necessarily saying 43 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 3: that I think that's going to happen to Holly Holme here, 44 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 3: but it is very likely to happen at some point 45 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 3: in her next few fights. In terms of how I 46 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 3: see the stylistic fight playing out, Buono Silva very happy 47 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 3: to get taken down and fight off of her back 48 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 3: because that's where she's the most dangerous, really good submission 49 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:52,799 Speaker 3: game off of her back, but home is the better 50 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 3: minute winner both on the feet, she's a better striker 51 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 3: and on the ground. I think she's going to have 52 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 3: more time where she's in top position after landing takedowns. 53 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 3: One thing with Bono Silva, people see the low takedown defense, 54 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 3: actually think she's willing to accept those takedowns more than 55 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 3: she's not preventing the takedowns, because rather than wrestle offensively 56 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 3: and use that energy to get to the fight to 57 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 3: the map, she's finally letting her opponents take her down 58 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 3: and play a game where she's a bit more comfortable. So, 59 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 3: in terms of a bet for this matchup. If I'm 60 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 3: playing anything, it's going to be one of Silva by 61 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 3: submission at about plus three ninety. I made that line 62 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 3: closer to about plus three to fifty plus three hundred. 63 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 3: I think that's the one method or the one bet 64 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 3: that probably has value in this fight. But if I'm 65 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 3: picking it straight up, I think Home is a deserving favorite. 66 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 3: Wouldn't really touch the money line once he got closer 67 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 3: about plus one seventy five on Buonomosilva, but even there, 68 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 3: I'd probably prefer her submission prop. So dogger pass for 69 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 3: me based on the age, and if I'm going with 70 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 3: the dog, I'm playing submission prop. 71 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: Of course, the only older fighter exception you would make 72 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: was Robbie Lawler. 73 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 3: Yep, yeah, you need to be fighting another older fighter 74 00:03:57,200 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 3: or another fighter who's potentially retiring. And even though there 75 00:03:59,920 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 3: was an age differential between Nigro Price and Robbie Laller, 76 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 3: we talked about the fact that Price have been through 77 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 3: a number of wars himself and knocked out basically in 78 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 3: the third punch of the fight. So nice to cash 79 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 3: a ticket on a retiring fighter. And we'll go away 80 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 3: from playing those angles for quite a bit. Longer until 81 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 3: we get another spot like that. 82 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 1: So, speaking of the money line on the Dog Billy, 83 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: you're actually willing to go there, and you shop around, 84 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,679 Speaker 1: you do get a better number on Bueno Silva. Why 85 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: are you willing to go in that direction? 86 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 4: I am, And it wasn't my initial read on the fight. 87 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 4: I was looking at, you know, methods the way Sean 88 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 4: pointed out. I have another bet on it that we'll 89 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 4: touch on in a second. But the one thing about 90 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 4: Sean's analysis I disagree with a little bit is I 91 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 4: actually like MBS's style against Holly Holm. The reason is 92 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 4: because she's really solid in the clinch. Holly Holmes's game 93 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 4: plan lately it's just been kind of hold you up 94 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 4: against the fence and slowly suck time off the clock 95 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 4: while winning minutes. That way, Maira is very sharp with 96 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 4: elbows and knees in the clinch. She has like an 97 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 4: old school shooter box fighter feel, so you know the 98 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 4: vonder Ley and Andersh and Silva way back in the day, 99 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 4: where she's really tough in the clinch and really good submissions, 100 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 4: not great at winning positions. And the way that we're 101 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 4: scoring fights these days is we've talked about winning the 102 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 4: position is far less important than it used to be, 103 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 4: so even in a fight like this, if we were 104 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,600 Speaker 4: using quote unquote the old judging criteria, because the criteria 105 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 4: hasn't really changed, but how it's implemented has, I think 106 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 4: that would favor Home a lot more than the current 107 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 4: judging system does. And I could certainly see a scenario 108 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 4: where Home has Bueno Silva against the fence for a 109 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 4: good chunk of the round, but Myra lands and elbow 110 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 4: or knee and there cuts her open, hurts her just 111 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 4: a little bit, and that's enough to swing the judges. 112 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 4: So that's the one thing I like about that, as 113 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 4: well as agreeing with Sean that there's definitely an athleticism 114 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 4: difference here. Mayra's pretty fast by all things considered for 115 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 4: the division, and I think Holme has already started to 116 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 4: slow down. We've seen her grapple a lot more in 117 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 4: her last couple of fights. She was a world champion 118 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,679 Speaker 4: boxer and kickboxer, and she's taking down fighters like Janna 119 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 4: Santo's and I think she knows that she doesn't have 120 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 4: the speed that she used to, which is why she doing. 121 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 5: Things like that. 122 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 4: So you know, part of it is predicting that that 123 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 4: falling off a cliff happens sooner rather than later. And 124 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 4: I don't hate the style for MBS. But the other 125 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 4: bet I'm making on it a little bit more fun 126 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 4: is this fight to go to a split or majority 127 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 4: decision just because of what I've talked about. Is Holly 128 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 4: holm gonna win minutes, absolutely, but will Myra Bueno win 129 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 4: some moments that turn those around. It's always hard to 130 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 4: judge a Holly Holme fight because she doesn't do a ton, 131 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 4: but she's usually in the theoretically better position, so we 132 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 4: never know what we're gonna get on the judges' scorecards. Obviously, 133 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 4: don't put a whole unit on this plus four to 134 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,239 Speaker 4: fifty prop, but I think there's a greater than usual 135 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 4: chance that judges can't really decide a couple of these 136 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 4: rounds here because Holme's on top and Bueno's looking for 137 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 4: submissions or home azer against the fence while Bueno's throwing elbows. 138 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 4: So and that's also a bit of a hedge against 139 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 4: the money line play. 140 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 5: I'm making you. 141 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 3: Here to respond, Zerrilla No, I think that's the Billy 142 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 3: and I had talked about it, you know the other 143 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 3: day when we met each other at the Action Network 144 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 3: Contents of It in person for the first time. But yeah, 145 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 3: I mean that's the initial read on this fight for 146 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 3: both of us was fight ends by suplitter majority. The 147 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 3: decision just lower fight class or lower weight class. Main 148 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 3: event optics are going to be close. I think it's 149 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 3: likely that this one is going to be difficult to score. 150 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 3: That's why for my you know, my purposes, I'm kind 151 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 3: of taking the finishing aspect out of it. I mentioned 152 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 3: Bueno Silva by submission. If you can get finish only markets, 153 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 3: I think I might prefer her there as well. She's 154 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 3: pretty tough and I think she has more of the 155 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 3: finishing upside in this fight. We've seen Home submitted in 156 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 3: the past when people are able to get to dominant 157 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 3: positions on her on the bat, So you know, if 158 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 3: that leticism gap two is significant like it might be 159 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 3: if Home drops off of the cliff, it's probably likely 160 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 3: that she gets finished as well over twenty five minute fights. 161 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 3: So yeah, you know, finish only market one on Silva 162 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 3: as well. But yeah, I don't mind Billies play on 163 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 3: the fight ends by split decision because it is the 164 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 3: type of fight that lines up with that type of 165 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 3: read for. 166 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: Our personal purposes. It was very nice meeting both of 167 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: you in person. We yet to meet each other in person. 168 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 1: For those listening, we met for the first time Monday 169 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: and Tuesday. 170 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 3: This week, So big happy family now yeah. 171 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: And closer than ever. And now it feels like we're 172 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: just going to take it and ride it. So very good, 173 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 1: as if we hadn't been doing that already, but just 174 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: further brings us along here on the audio side, favorite 175 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,239 Speaker 1: underdog Zillo for UFC seventy seven. 176 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, don't want to steal Billy's thunder, but very much 177 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 3: with him on the pick he's going to give out. 178 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 3: I'm also with him on his best bet on this card. 179 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 3: We're actually aligned on a lot of fights, but I'm 180 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 3: going to go a little bit crazier and go with 181 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 3: Basil Jafes against Jack Della Mattelena. Jack Della was supposed 182 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 3: to fight last week as opponent dropped out game a 183 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 3: short notice replacement. That short notes replacement had some sort 184 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 3: of brain injury pop up on again. I'm glad they 185 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 3: caught that, but they rebooked him for this week. He 186 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 3: stayed in Vegas. Overall, I'm kind of fading Jack Della 187 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 3: on what appears to be a current title run for him. 188 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 3: I think he's a great boxer. I really enjoy watching 189 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 3: his fights, but we've still yet to see somebody get 190 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 3: him to moments where they're able to grapple him in 191 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 3: the UFC. All of his UFC fights, except for his 192 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 3: Contender series about have ended inside essentially of three and 193 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:14,319 Speaker 3: a half minutes, and we really haven't seen anybody take 194 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 3: him to the ground. Ramazamimive got him there briefly, but 195 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 3: the fight popped back quickly to the feet. Hafes is 196 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 3: a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt and primarily a grappler. 197 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,839 Speaker 3: His striking has improved in his recent fight. Scored a 198 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,079 Speaker 3: knockout on his last fight, more of an atritional knockout, 199 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 3: but he can strike and he can hang on the feet. 200 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 3: But I think he has the type of style that 201 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 3: if he's able to get Jack Dela down, can cause 202 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 3: him serious problems. So Hafes plus four seventy five on 203 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 3: the money line, like it down to about plus four twenty. 204 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 3: Also going to take a look at his finish props 205 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 3: inside the distance as well, maybe even a round one 206 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 3: prop two. He is taking this fight on short notice. 207 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 3: As I said, so may not have the best cardio, 208 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,599 Speaker 3: and also if he doesn't have a lot of success wrestling, 209 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 3: his cardio is probably likely to drop off as well. 210 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 3: But I do think he is the type of style 211 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 3: to cause Jack Della problems and I'm going to keep 212 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 3: betting against Jack Dela with guys who are going to 213 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 3: try to grapple him as he sends up the Walter 214 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 3: rate rankings. So Hafez big juicy money line number I 215 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 3: think is worth blyying this week. 216 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: Billy, you're also in alignment on LUTs. That number is 217 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: moving at plus one thirty six at fandels. That might 218 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 1: be a number you want to get sooner rather than later. 219 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I had that actually in my notes was make 220 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 4: sure to remind people now is the time if you're 221 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 4: playing this one. But I'm also in alignment with Sean 222 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 4: on Hafez, which I'll get to a little bit later. 223 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 4: But I was very glad when I had my LUTs 224 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 4: pick in here to see that I wasn't the only 225 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 4: one thinking that way. 226 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 5: It just seems like an offline to me. 227 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 4: As we've talked about Lots has all the grappling upside 228 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 4: and when you have an underdog with grappling upside. I 229 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 4: don't want to say that's an automatic bet, but it's 230 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 4: pretty close because we've seen Melsic get taken down. He's 231 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 4: fighting Meltsic Bagdasari and who has a kickboxing background, high 232 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 4: level kickboxing. But it just hasn't translated to MMA the 233 00:10:58,400 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 4: way I think. 234 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 5: It does for some guys. 235 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 4: He's two and I believe two and one in the UFC, 236 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 4: but both the people he beat are winless in the 237 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 4: UFC and have immediately been cut, you know, not tough competition. 238 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 4: The one thing I saw on tape that I really 239 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 4: liked is when LUTs is kicked, he has an excellent 240 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 4: response by just coming right back with a straight shot. 241 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 4: And when you're fighting a guy like Melsick who relies 242 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 4: so heavily on his kicks, that's going to be really important. 243 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 4: I don't think that's ideal. We'd rather not get kicked 244 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 4: in the first place than have a good response to 245 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 4: getting kicked. But that kind of thing will keep Melsick 246 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 4: on the back foot, make him vulnerable for takedowns, and 247 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 4: give LUTs the chance. This actually was like plus one 248 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 4: sixty something. 249 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 5: Last night. 250 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 4: I was looking at it and already sank and is 251 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 4: currently sinking. So when Zaillo is on one side, our 252 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 4: editor Dan Stopp is planning on making this his best bet. 253 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 4: It's my read and the market is heavily hammering it 254 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 4: this one. Even if you don't know anything about the 255 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 4: fighters involved, a lot of signs that that's probably the 256 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 4: A side of this fight, at least at the current line. 257 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 4: You know, I'd probably play it even all the way 258 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 4: down to plus one twenty or so, but get the 259 00:11:58,920 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 4: better number while you can. 260 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, this line's been coming down all week. It was 261 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 3: plus one seventy five. Two other points I want to 262 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 3: mention what's also has a two inch reach advantage on 263 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 3: the feet, and I think he can compete in the kickboxing. 264 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 3: But as Billy mentioned, not only does he have the 265 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:13,079 Speaker 3: grappling upside, I also think he has better cardio. Melsick 266 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 3: typically fades after about six or seven minutes, so I 267 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 3: think lots is a good live bet after round one 268 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 3: as well. But yeah, grappling upside, cardio upside at plus money, 269 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 3: that's a very easy bet to make. 270 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 6: Get in on the action with the King of Sportsbooks. 271 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: Sign up with BETMGM using bonus code action and get 272 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,200 Speaker 1: up to one thousand dollars paid back and bonus bets. 273 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 1: If your first bet doesn't win. Visit betimgm dot com 274 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: for terms and conditions. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, 275 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, 276 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: d C, West Virginia, Wyoming, or Ontario only. Must be 277 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 1: twenty one or older to wager nineteen or older in 278 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 1: Ontario New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to qualification 279 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 1: and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non withdrawable free bets 280 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 1: or site credit free bets expire seven days from insuance. 281 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: Excludes Michigan disassociated persons. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called 282 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:13,839 Speaker 1: one eight hundred next step in Arizona one eight hundred 283 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: five to two to two four seven zero zero in Colorado, 284 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: d C, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming, or Virginia. One eight 285 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 1: hundred two seven zero seven one one seven for confidential 286 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 1: help in Michigan. One eight hundred Gambler in Indiana, Maryland, 287 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: New Jersey or West Virginia one eight hundred bets off. 288 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: In Iowa one eight hundred nine eight one zero zero 289 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: two three. In Puerto Rico, call eight seven seven eight 290 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: hope and why, or text hope and why. In New 291 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: York caller Tech Tennessee redline at eight hundred eighty eight 292 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: nine nine seven eight nine are called one eight eight 293 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 1: eight seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi. 294 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your 295 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:49,079 Speaker 1: gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario 296 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 1: at one eight six six five three one two six 297 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 1: zero zero to speak to an advisor free of charge. 298 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, and Utah, and 299 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 1: other states were prohibited. Promote offer is not available in 300 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 1: Nevada and New York. 301 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 3: Hey. 302 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 1: Moving on to the fight of the night we have 303 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 1: Nazim said he cough. 304 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:07,559 Speaker 6: He is at minus one fifty. 305 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: Two as we record on a Friday morning, the favorite 306 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: over Terrence McKinney. He's at plus one twenty four. That 307 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:17,839 Speaker 1: number has risen ever so slightly. Zarilla, same question as 308 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: the main event, How do we assess this fight and 309 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 1: how would you like to bet it? 310 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 3: Yah Sadakov is my best bet on the card. We'll 311 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 3: talk about some best bets later. There's actually a bunch 312 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 3: of other money lines I like on this card more 313 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 3: so than usual, but Sadakov would be my best bet 314 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 3: amongst them. The thing is, you're gonna have to sweat 315 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 3: this one for a couple minutes, because Terrence mckinne generally 316 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 3: is extremely dangerous for about three to five minutes. The 317 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 3: problem with McKinney is it's becoming a bit of his 318 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 3: psychological game for him, because he started out his UFC 319 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 3: career very hot, getting quick knockouts, had a bunch of 320 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 3: quick knockouts regionally, but then the moment he got extended 321 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 3: and eventually finished in his next fight, he didn't really 322 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 3: press on the gas early, and it's sort of a 323 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 3: he either does his best optimal game plan and it 324 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 3: wins or loses, or he doesn't do his best game 325 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 3: plan and he's going to fit anyway. So I would 326 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 3: expect him to try to come out hot here again 327 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 3: because taking his foot off the gas didn't really work 328 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 3: for him last time, and he's still eventually tired anyway 329 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 3: and was finished. But Sadakov, a tough guy, trains a 330 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 3: long long island, Long islanders, just you know, tougher than 331 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 3: the average population in general. Trains with you know, Ray Longo, 332 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 3: Atolongo and Wideman Jim So, very good training partners, probably 333 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 3: training with the champ Al, Jamaine Sterling, you know Matt 334 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 3: ravol out there. He's got a lot of really good 335 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 3: training partners to work with. McKinney moves around, but we 336 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 3: haven't really seen major improvements for him, and he's a 337 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 3: strong wrestler. He might be able to get a take 338 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 3: down here early. But as I said, that cardio does 339 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 3: not last. He's very explosive, he uses all of his 340 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 3: power into all of his techniques, and it doesn't really 341 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 3: last beyond a few minutes. So Sadakov another guy I 342 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 3: think is a phenomenal live bet after round one, but 343 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 3: it may not even get there. He might finish McKinney 344 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 3: near the end of round one based on how McKinney 345 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 3: gases in the past, or he may be losing the 346 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 3: first few minutes of round one and then flip things 347 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 3: around by the end of a round and basically be 348 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 3: you know, a bigger favorite going into round two than 349 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 3: he was going into round one, even though he lost 350 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 3: the first few minutes of the round. So yeah, you know, 351 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 3: the cardio discrepancy, the durability discrepancy, the hardware, all of 352 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 3: it favored Satakov in addition to the fact that I 353 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 3: just think he's the better and more technical fighter. So 354 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 3: Nazimsatakov was losing his last fight the first two rounds 355 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 3: prior to getting a cut stoppage, and I actually think 356 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 3: that is giving value on us in this fight. I 357 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 3: think a lot of people looking at the minute losing 358 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 3: in his last fight, where this is a fight that 359 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 3: is very likely to ad by finished. 360 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: Billy McKinney has dropped two of his last three fights 361 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: and both losses were by KO or TKO. 362 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 6: Are you in alignment here with Zarrillo? 363 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 5: Yeah, one hundred percent. 364 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 4: The one thing I wanted to add on a more 365 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 4: data driven standpoint, McKinney in his career, he is one 366 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 4: in three in fights that make it past three minutes, 367 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 4: not out of the first round past three minutes. 368 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 5: So the obvious angle here is Sadikov live. 369 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 4: You know, we talked on our Experts Guide recently that 370 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 4: I don't like to live bet during a round. 371 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 5: Because of the TV lag. This might be the one exception. 372 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 4: You know, we hit that two minute mark no matter 373 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 4: what's going on, just you know, fire up your FanDuel 374 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,880 Speaker 4: sportsbook app and be ready because it's it's really three 375 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,880 Speaker 4: minutes of cardio at best for McKinny the vast majority 376 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 4: of the time. If I had to bet this one 377 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 4: pre fight, my favorite way to play it is, you 378 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 4: know books where you can do the same game parlay, 379 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 4: and just parlay Satikov with over two and a half minutes, 380 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 4: three and a half minutes, four and a half minutes 381 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 4: somewhere in there, because that's what it's likely going to happen. 382 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 5: You know, it's obviously riskier that McKinny just startes. 383 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 4: Him right away, but you can get a much better line, 384 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 4: and you know, maybe Satakov wins early, but if he 385 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 4: has any sense in terms of the game plan, it's 386 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 4: kind of just survived this opening salvo takeover late. And 387 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 4: that is the problem with Sean put It's really hard 388 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:03,719 Speaker 4: to know that after round one we're going to get 389 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 4: a better price because McKinney doesn't even make it through 390 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 4: one round of cardio. 391 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 5: It's less than that. So I wanted to give. 392 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 4: Something pre fight for people who may or might not 393 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 4: be watching this less intriguing UFC card, but the best 394 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 4: way to play it is certainly live. 395 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 3: And his round two prop is plus five hundred, you know, 396 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 3: for a minus one fifty money line. That is a 397 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 3: very low round two prop. The fight is minus seven 398 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 3: hundred to end inside the distance, but typically see you 399 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 3: see those round two round three props around ten to 400 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 3: one and fifteen to one, respectively, And for Sadakov here 401 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 3: he's plus five hundred and about you know, one thousand 402 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 3: and round three, so the books know what's up. It's 403 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 3: it's likely a second or third round finish. 404 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 4: So we're really just hoping that whoever's doing the live 405 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,959 Speaker 4: betting as this that is happening isn't super confident with 406 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 4: how that usually goes, because if they're adjusting for the 407 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 4: fact that they expect McKinney to guess out, then there's 408 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,919 Speaker 4: probably no play there. But my guess is they're not 409 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,400 Speaker 4: as sophisticated on the live markets as they are pre fight. 410 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: Okay, good stuff, so there could be a live betting opportunity, 411 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 1: but proceed with caution. 412 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 6: Prop market zilla where we looking this week, Yeah. 413 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 3: Going to go with a bit of a different approach. 414 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 3: There's a couple of ways you could play it. So 415 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 3: I'm going for the Koria due to Cova in her 416 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 3: technical UFCDBU she did win on Contender series, and she's 417 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 3: going against the Stella Nunez who is owing three in 418 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 3: the UFC, getting a rare fourth opportunity after starting owning 419 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 3: three in the UFC. But she's actually been finished twice 420 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 3: in the second half of her fights and typically gases. 421 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 3: So we've talked about other fighters on this card after 422 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 3: about the seven minute mark. So Newton's very good, wins 423 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 3: the first round fairly frequently, but after that first round 424 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 3: she drops off substantially. The skill level the cardio just 425 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 3: does not align. I think she's talented, but if she 426 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 3: could last for more than seven minutes, she could actually 427 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 3: win fights. Due to Cova has the grappling upside here, 428 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 3: I expect her to land takedowns and where on her opponent. 429 00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 3: I don't mind her round two and round three props, 430 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 3: which is I said, there's a couple of ways to 431 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,360 Speaker 3: play this, but if you can find a same game 432 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 3: parlay very easy approach with Dudakova and the over one 433 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 3: and a half rounds of plus money, that's as she 434 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 3: should come into her c ideal wing condition and the 435 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 3: majority of where she's going to dominate this fight. So 436 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:15,400 Speaker 3: due to cover in the over one and a half 437 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 3: rounds and plus money, find bet to make. But also 438 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 3: if you want to play her round two prop at 439 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,640 Speaker 3: about five to one her round three prop at twelve 440 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 3: to one, respectively, I don't really love that round two 441 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,400 Speaker 3: prop as much, and other books two FanDuel sometimes offers 442 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 3: the bet the round three or decision prop as well. 443 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 3: I think all of those good ways to play due 444 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,639 Speaker 3: to Kova depending on how you want to do it. 445 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 3: But yeah, she should win minutes, especially in the second 446 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 3: half of this fight, and just look for ways to 447 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 3: bet against Nunez after round one, including a w I bet. 448 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: So those are those are two separate same game parlays 449 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: or city Is that right? 450 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 3: Yeah? So just the recap there's different. It's there's really 451 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 3: three different ways you could play it. If you can 452 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 3: play the same game parlay due Tokov in the over 453 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 3: one and a half rounds of plus money, yep, you 454 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,479 Speaker 3: can target her round two and round three props at 455 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 3: bigger plus money, where you could also target her round 456 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 3: three or decision prop as well. I think that round 457 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 3: three or decision prop or the same game Parlay would 458 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 3: be my preferred options. The round two sprinkle at plus 459 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 3: five hundred as I just talked about with the McKinney fight. 460 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 3: Getting a round two at plus five hundred on a 461 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 3: fighter not super appealing, especially in a fight like this, 462 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 3: that is actually a pick them to go to a decision, 463 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 3: Whereas that mckinne fight was minus seven hundred ten inside 464 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 3: the distance. So round three er decision, I'd say for 465 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 3: due to COVID or that same game parlay. 466 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 5: Got it? 467 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 1: Okay, very good, Billy, where are we looking? You actually 468 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 1: tease this when we discussed underdogs. 469 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:41,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, the Jack Della Mattelina Basil half As fight. I'm 470 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 4: still not one hundred percent exactly how I want to 471 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 4: bet it, but I'm pretty confident in the story of 472 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 4: this fight, and this feels like one where Basil half 473 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,959 Speaker 4: As wins at the very least a moral victory against 474 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 4: Jack Della Mattalina. And as we know, there's not really 475 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 4: moral victories in the UFC. But sometimes we get these 476 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 4: short notice fighters who they look okay, they hang in 477 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 4: there against a tough opponent, they make it to the 478 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 4: judges and that's pretty much their ceiling, and we're excited 479 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 4: about that because I do think, for the reason Sean 480 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 4: pointed out, he's got some grappling upside. I think JDM 481 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,360 Speaker 4: is probably good enough on the ground to not get submitted, 482 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,640 Speaker 4: But can he lose a round to jiu jitsu black belt? Absolutely. 483 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 4: You know, half has went to a draw with Jeremiah Wells, 484 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 4: who's one of the best grapplers in the division. He 485 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 4: actually had a grappling match against Gordon Ryan, So my 486 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 4: fellow grappling nerds know who Gordon Ryan is. 487 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:28,479 Speaker 5: That went to a decision. 488 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 4: He didn't get tapped out by Ryan, which again kind 489 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:32,199 Speaker 4: of another moral victory. 490 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 5: So a couple of angles. 491 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,399 Speaker 4: I'm looking at just this fight and over to go 492 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 4: over one and a half rounds is plus one seventy, 493 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 4: and if we think it's going to be close, you 494 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 4: could assume that that's a pretty safe bet, especially that 495 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 4: kind of plus money. The other one that I like, 496 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 4: and now we're seeing it pop up more and more 497 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 4: is half as has spread at plus three and a 498 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,880 Speaker 4: half is plus two to seventy out there in the market. 499 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 4: That's not a bet we usually hear about in UFC, 500 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 4: but Basically, if he doesn't get finished and he wins 501 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,400 Speaker 4: one round, he covers that plus three and a half 502 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,959 Speaker 4: because it's the sum total of all the judges' scorecards. 503 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 4: So if it's twenty nine to twenty eight against him, 504 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 4: maybe he wins the first round, especially with taking it 505 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 4: on short notice and not having the guest tank, and 506 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 4: then survives to the end. That's a pretty juicy price 507 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 4: for that. He just basically needs to not get finished. 508 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 5: So tons of ways you can play this. 509 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 4: You could get real aggressive and do you know, Hafez 510 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 4: and over if you really want to play it hard. 511 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,479 Speaker 4: But I'm just thinking that it's going to be closer 512 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,120 Speaker 4: than it looks. I think JDM probably wins this more 513 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 4: often than not. But it's one of those where we 514 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 4: all walk away really impressed by half as everyone's excited 515 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:35,439 Speaker 4: to see him fight with a full training camp, but 516 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,160 Speaker 4: he doesn't necessarily have his hand raised. 517 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 3: And then not only that, you know he'll win round one, 518 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,199 Speaker 3: get finished in round two and we'll say, oh, he 519 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 3: covered his price tag, and then he'll be a minus 520 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 3: three hundred favorite in his next fight, and we'll bet 521 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,159 Speaker 3: against him after the over correction since he looks so 522 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 3: good against Jack Deella. 523 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:51,880 Speaker 5: So that is. 524 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 3: Generally how it goes with these debutantes, especially in short notice. 525 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 3: They overperform and they become a favorite in their next fight 526 00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 3: and we have to bet against them. 527 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 1: Conclude ore UFC Vegas seventy seven betting preview with a 528 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 1: best bet or a final bet zerrilla. 529 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 6: What category do we have this week? 530 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 3: Well, since Sadakov is my best bet on this card, 531 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 3: but honestly, there's a number of money lines that I like, 532 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 3: all of which I like more than that Robbie Waller 533 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 3: play from last week, So not really sure how to 534 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 3: feel about that. Billy's going to give out a play 535 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,720 Speaker 3: as the best bet. I really like that one too, 536 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 3: But in terms of my favorite remaining bet, that is 537 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 3: a moneyline bet that is not Sadakov Jin Young Park. 538 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 3: He is six and two in the UFC. It is 539 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 3: very difficult to go six and two in the UFC. 540 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 3: Do not overlook that fact facing Albert Jariev, who I 541 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 3: think people would expect to have the grappling upside of 542 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 3: this fight, but there is a cardio discrepancy here. Park 543 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 3: is the bigger man as well. I want to pull 544 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 3: up the exact height and reach discrepancy but Park better striker. 545 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 3: Deriah basically needs to wrestle him. But Deariev is the 546 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 3: type of fighter who, even when he's able to successfully 547 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 3: wrestle his opponents, he's not really putting on a lot 548 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,119 Speaker 3: of damage. You're creating a lot of separation for the 549 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 3: judges in terms of what he's doing with those takedowns. 550 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 3: He's sort of trying to matt return them, rinse and 551 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,719 Speaker 3: repeat those takedowns, drag them down, and then maintained position. 552 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 3: But he doesn't really land a ton of ground and 553 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:17,159 Speaker 3: pound with it because he's trying to consolidate those positions. 554 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 3: So Park on the feet, I think he wins to 555 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,679 Speaker 3: the striking exchanges. I think he wins the late minutes 556 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 3: in his fight down the stretch, particularly as Deriya of 557 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 3: tries to wrestle him. Maybe he doesn't have his success 558 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 3: for Park is able to get back up and beyond that, 559 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 3: I really just favor Park's experience and the level of 560 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 3: competition that he's faced, and I think generally speaking as 561 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 3: a UFC fighter, he is largely underrated. As I said, 562 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,439 Speaker 3: going six and two in the UFC is not easy. 563 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 3: Even his decision loss, you know, to Rodriguez, was fairly competitive, 564 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,880 Speaker 3: so I'm sorry Gregory Rodriguez was That was a back 565 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,880 Speaker 3: and forth fight where he actually had Rodriguez on skates 566 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,440 Speaker 3: and then got anknocked out himself, and it was surprising 567 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,159 Speaker 3: to see Park get knocked out. His nickname is the 568 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 3: Iron Turtle. He's generally considered durable and is able to 569 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 3: take a lot of damage and not the biggest finisher himself, 570 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,479 Speaker 3: but he has finished his past two fights. Here we're 571 00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 3: near he get choke and sort of using his cardio 572 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 3: to grind down opponents. So I think Park is making improvements. 573 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,159 Speaker 3: But as I said, grappling upside, durability upside, cardio upside. 574 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,280 Speaker 3: I think he's a justifiable favorite at minus one fifty. 575 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 3: Another guy, I think you can lie bet after round one, 576 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 3: but I think a fine pre fight bet at minus 577 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 3: one fifty. So there's a few other favorites on this card, Munos, 578 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,440 Speaker 3: Perez Costa all at around minus one eighty to minus 579 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,640 Speaker 3: two twenty. I have bets on them. You can mix 580 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,880 Speaker 3: those around in parlays, but Park and Sadi Kalv both 581 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 3: around minus one fifty My two favorite bets on this 582 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 3: card all. 583 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 6: Right, and Park is up to minus one sixty two. 584 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fine, you can take it too about minus 585 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:51,320 Speaker 3: one seventy five. 586 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,399 Speaker 5: There's some room there, okay, very good. 587 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 6: And Billy, you are also on Prato. 588 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,199 Speaker 4: Yeah, I am. And there's two sides to that. So 589 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 4: the first he's fighting otman a z I Tire. The 590 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 4: first is the proto side. This is the second UFC 591 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 4: fight for Prato. He lost what one might dub a 592 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 4: moral victory, lost a fight that one might dub a 593 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 4: moral victory to Jamie Mularkey. Back at UFC two eighty four, 594 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 4: proto twenty years old, fighting out of Argentina, takes it 595 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 4: down short notice, flies all the way to Australia and 596 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 4: puts on a more or less competitive fight with Jamie Mularkey, 597 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 4: which given the circumstances and everything surrounding that, I was 598 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 4: impressed by. You know, he had his moments. He got 599 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 4: taken down a little bit, but looked really good off 600 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,400 Speaker 4: his back, hunting for submissions, able to get his way 601 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 4: back to his feet, almost tapped him at the end 602 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 4: of the fight, which would have been a huge upset 603 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 4: at the time. And we talk about, you know, trying 604 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 4: to project fighter progression. This might be the biggest difference 605 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,640 Speaker 4: between how a fighter looked in his debut in their 606 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,200 Speaker 4: next fight, because he was twenty years old, so still 607 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 4: nowhere near his athletic prime, and just extremely difficult circumstances 608 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 4: to make your UFC debut. You know, It's not like 609 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 4: he did it at a fight night event with twenty 610 00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:57,919 Speaker 4: people in the crowd. 611 00:27:58,240 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 5: This is a huge. 612 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 4: Hostile environment way across the world, one of the biggest 613 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,119 Speaker 4: cards in a long time. So I think there's just 614 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:07,680 Speaker 4: a lot of projectible room for improvement on product right now. 615 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 4: The other side of it is Otman Azatar. His last 616 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,360 Speaker 4: win was nearly three years ago. Sometimes that's just kind 617 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,160 Speaker 4: of a schedule and quirk, or you know, you fought 618 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,600 Speaker 4: some tough guys in that stretch. But with him, it's 619 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,639 Speaker 4: a little bit different. There's a bloody elbow story a 620 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,679 Speaker 4: couple months ago. He and his brother are apparently like 621 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,240 Speaker 4: best friends with the Moroccan king and have been flying 622 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 4: all over the world and partying with him and taking 623 00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 4: him out and showing him a good time and all 624 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,679 Speaker 4: this stuff, which doesn't seem like the best lifestyle for 625 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,440 Speaker 4: a you have yet to make it to the top 626 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 4: style fighter. You know, we see it with guys Connor 627 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 4: McGregor among them, who once they get to that level 628 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 4: of wealth and opulence, they kind of fall off. Now 629 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 4: we've got a pair of brothers never really got there, 630 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 4: kind of just living a weird lifestyle out there. I 631 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 4: don't want to put too much in that, but go 632 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 4: read the Bloody Elbow Story anyone. 633 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 5: If you haven't yet. 634 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 4: It is a wild tale of the stuff these guys 635 00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 4: get up to, and that just doesn't seem like someone 636 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 4: who's entirely focused on fighting, so, you know, looking to 637 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 4: fade him obviously. Prato another one of those earlier in 638 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 4: the week, a little bit of a better line. 639 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 5: I'm still more than happy with the minus one fifteen. 640 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 3: He's also twelve years younger, Yeah, yep. 641 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 5: And that's another one we like to talk about, is 642 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 5: that age cap. 643 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, especially you know, lightweight. Not not as concerned like 644 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 3: thirty three years old at lightweight for his atar, but 645 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 3: Prato making into the UFC at twenty one. He's a 646 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 3: bit of a physical specimen. I think this kid is 647 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 3: serious upside, you know, going forward. You know, he may 648 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 3: not be anywhere close to his peak right now, but 649 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 3: in a few years, this kid's going to be really good. 650 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,840 Speaker 3: So happy to bet on him. Is he's on his 651 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 3: ascent and I think he's a much better aflete. 652 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:42,959 Speaker 4: And it might be one of those cases where we 653 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 4: look back a couple of years from now and say, wow, 654 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,720 Speaker 4: I can't believe we got him at minus one fifteen. 655 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,240 Speaker 5: He's been minus three hundred. Is next six fights if 656 00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 5: he looks good here, So it's a good point. 657 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 1: After our shenan against em early in the week, there 658 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 1: are no Bloody Elbows to report from the Action Network 659 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 1: Content summit, which. 660 00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 4: Is that's the name of the website. I'm sorry BloodyElbow 661 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 4: dot com. As an MMA journalist, got it? 662 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 6: Okay, Sorry, No, don't apologize. 663 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 1: I should have clarified or checked double check before I 664 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: went there. 665 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 6: So okay, very good. That's going to do it. 666 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 1: For our UFC Vegas seventy seven betting preview on the 667 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,720 Speaker 1: Action Network podcast, we are presented by Fandel I'd like 668 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,719 Speaker 1: to add, if you are a baseball fan, you can 669 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 1: find Shanzillo's opening pitch right up. He's got the slate 670 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 1: broken down for Friday and Baseball's back, and then Billy 671 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 1: Ward's got his Nerfy picks Nerfy r Fie picks available 672 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 1: as well over at Action Network. 673 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,960 Speaker 6: So you're a baseball fan, these guys are on it. 674 00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 1: As well for Billy Ward, Shonzillo, Brendan Glashen, thanks for 675 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 1: listening everybody. 676 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 6: We will join you again next week, See you later. 677 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 678 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 679 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 680 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler