WEBVTT - The BOE's Plan, Alzheimer's Research, ETFs 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:21.920 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. It's a dramatic intervention 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:24.840 to staaloff and imminent crash in the guilt market. My 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:28.560 pledging unlimited purchases along dated bonds. But isn't that kind 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:31.760 of a cross currents with Prime Minister list trust tax 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:35.600 cuts bill that was just recently announced kind of whip 0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:38.160 sawing markets. Um, you know, over the last several days, 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:39.680 we want to get a little bit of perspective about 0:00:39.720 --> 0:00:42.279 what's happening on the trading floors around the world. Vince 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:46.120 Cignarella joins his global macro strategist with Bloomberg News. Vince, 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:48.000 what do you make of what's coming out of our 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:54.000 good friends over in London quantitative easing? No, No, this 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:57.160 was all taken up basically because of the pension issued. 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:01.840 UH pensions have taken a beating on this moving bonds Uh, 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:06.120 there were some questions about liquidation and liquidity issues. So 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:08.000 the b if you really just stepped in to protect 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:13.679 the pension funds, um and as one treasury uh trade 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:16.240 or friend of mine st today is the b V 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:20.640 essentially engaging in yield curve control by another name, similar 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:24.320 to the Bank of Japan moves of later and you 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:27.560 could argue that that's realisted. What's going on. I'm looking 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:31.560 at the long end of the curve here down a 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:35.600 hundred basis points in yield. Yesterday we went over five 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:39.680 on the UK thirty year. Today we're under four. That 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:44.800 kind of move um looks like panic. Well, you know 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:47.560 it's the it's the same situation. It is because the 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:49.720 pension funds are out in the long end, so that's 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:54.120 where the banking is playing. Um. It's almost an operation 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:57.120 twist if you will, um as to what they're doing 0:01:57.120 --> 0:02:00.800 the stabilize the race situation. You know, what does it mean? 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:02.560 What does it mean? Vince? If you're a trader, If 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:06.080 you're a trader who bought the thirty year guilty yesterday, 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:10.000 I guess you're in pig heaven. But if you are short, 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:15.000 if you went short them yesterday, Um, you're closing up shop. Yeah, absolutely, no, 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:17.320 that's this is uh, this is a very uh, this 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:19.880 is a rip your face off kind of moves. Say 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:22.560 on the street, if you were if you decided you 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.800 were going to short that market yesterday. Um. But you know, 0:02:26.280 --> 0:02:29.920 it's it's a little bit of you know, fiscal irresponsibility 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:32.800 as to what was happening prior to today and what 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:36.760 the markets were spanking the pound and that market yesterday 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:40.880 aggressively because they don't like what the what the the 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:45.400 fiscal policy is about cutting taxes and increasing spending, while 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:48.079 the Bank of England is talking about raising two bases 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:50.640 points to try to fight installation. It's you've got the 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:53.520 Treasury Department and the and the Bank of England working 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:57.600 at odds, which is an almost emerging market kind of crisis. 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:00.680 You you've taken a cheap tank jeep ten country and 0:03:00.720 --> 0:03:04.720 you've thrown it into em almost. I mean, how often 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:09.120 in developed markets do um bond yields move one full 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:13.200 percentage point in the space of like twenty minutes. Vince, 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:16.000 are we highly highly a luxe Vince, are we gonna 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:19.160 get parity with the pounds, sterling and dollar because the 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:22.080 pound hasn't exactly strengthened. We're at one oh six ninety 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:25.040 seven right now. I think the currency is very much 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:27.560 in danger of a collapse. I think, you know, what 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:32.040 depends on on what the what the Bank of England 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:34.280 does next. I mean, you know, the Bank of Thing 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:36.240 and raising rights now to try to defend the pound 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:38.400 is going to make situation worse. It's gonna look like 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:42.000 the Sorrows era where markets are going to see the 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:45.000 banket thing in a panic mode trying to protect Sterling, 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:48.000 trying to protect the currency by raising rates, and the 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.280 market is going to take that, you know, a bit 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:53.240 between their teeth and see this as an opportunity to 0:03:53.320 --> 0:03:55.920 push them to see how far they can go, because 0:03:55.920 --> 0:03:58.440 there's only so far they can raise rates to try 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:00.560 to protect the pound. When you have more motgage rate 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:05.080 um mortgages uh going back to being marked up, and 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:07.200 you know what does that do to the consumer? You're 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:09.360 giving them money in a tax cut, but then you're 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:13.520 taking it away by higher mortgage rates. So it it's 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.600 it's literally like throwing money into the fireplace. It just 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:19.520 doesn't help you. I'll remind our listeners that you know 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:21.920 here in the US, you get a thirty year fixed 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:25.400 mortgage in the UK. Often um the mortgage you get 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:28.080 us for less than ten years. So you I think 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.320 there are one point eight million people in the UK 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:35.559 who need to refy their mortgages this year. Still, Yeah, 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:39.440 tough situation going from zero to you know, well maybe 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:41.520 they had a three percent rate and now they're looking 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:46.720 at like nine. So Vince, coming back to this side 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:49.839 of the ocean, Federal Reserve, they look at all this 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:53.800 global uncertainty, they look at kind of the instability coming 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:57.080 out of Great Britain, one of our biggest partners. Does 0:04:57.080 --> 0:05:00.240 that influence them at all? Well, I think they have 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:01.920 to keep this in mind because you have the same 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:04.560 similar situation here in the US. You've seen the stock 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:08.760 markets drop some what orse um, does that put pressure 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:11.760 on US pension funds. It's very likely you're probably going 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:15.120 to see another round of earnings that are are not 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:19.240 going to look too rosy because of the moving a dollar. Um. 0:05:19.279 --> 0:05:21.400 You know, I wouldn't be surprised if we took a 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:23.880 run at one double ow and sterling that that would 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:26.720 be you know, the curtain call, if you will, for 0:05:26.960 --> 0:05:29.880 the global central banks or the G ten central banks. 0:05:30.360 --> 0:05:33.440 Uh to step in and do some coordinated intervention because 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:36.680 part of the problem too it will stronger dollar, is 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:40.400 that that that weekends. You know that that lessons prices 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:45.080 on imports, um and and put potentially makes the inflation 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.680 situation worse for than set suset as well. All Right, 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:49.680 It's very interesting, and I also wonder if people on 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:51.480 the wrong side of the trade have to sell treasuries, 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:54.120 if energy importers have to sell treasuries, if the Bank 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:57.159 of Japan has to sell treasuries, or the Finance ministry 0:05:57.160 --> 0:06:00.000 to show up their currency. All right, Vin Signarella, good stuff. 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:03.320 Appreciate a macro strategist for Bloomberg. Give us a sense 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:05.760 of just kind of what he's hearing on the street 0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:09.000 from bond traders, currency traders, and you know a lot 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:11.479 of uncertainty, particularly coming out of the UK with what's 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:13.600 been happening over there over the past early three or 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:16.520 four or five days, just putting a lot of uncertainty 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:22.360 into the markets. Let's check in with Katarina sem and Eddie. 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.960 She's a senior VP at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. Katarino, 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:29.440 what are the phone calls that the incoming calls you're 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:32.200 getting from your clients, any any themes emerging to you 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:36.000 uh this year, Well, this has certainly been a challenging 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:40.080 year and a challenging market, and investors are concerned and 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:43.919 the phone calls were getting uh, you know, just really 0:06:44.080 --> 0:06:48.440 you know, the vocalize this year that that investors are 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:51.360 you know, experiencing looking at their portfolios being down so much. 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:54.200 And what has been unusual about earlier in the year 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:56.920 is that it wasn't just the stocks that were down, 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:59.400 at the stocks and bonds that were down. So investors 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.760 are looking for the guideline from us, you know, as 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:05.600 far as what they should do, and what we're recommending 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:10.320 is above all to not fear cell because as easy 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:12.960 as it is to you know, to to be concerned about, 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:15.400 you know, all of the markets, you know, in our view, 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:19.080 there is an end inside where nearing the end of it, 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:25.240 the well they're they're they're absolutely could be, and sometimes 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:28.040 things are worse before they get better. And in our view, 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:31.800 the biggest risk to the market are the earnings declining 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:34.440 earnings and the earnings revisions that you know, we see 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.920 ahead because the reality is that we're most likely going 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:41.360 to have poor inflation remain high for some time market 0:07:41.440 --> 0:07:44.960 is already pricing in the interest rate increases, you know, 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:48.080 but with earnings revisions that are not done yet. You know, 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:52.360 this is that next leg down that we are expecting 0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:54.920 towards the end of the year. But this is again 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:57.680 not to say that we are bearish in the long run, 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:00.400 but I mean, we're looking for this. I think the 0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:06.000 median is for two dollars a share SMP meeting SMPUM 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:09.880 five hundred year end EPs. What are you what are 0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:12.640 you looking for? Well, the question is you know what 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:14.960 kind of recession we're going to get. I think the 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:17.960 consensus is that we most likely are going to get 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:20.360 the economic recession. And if it's going to be a 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:23.080 mild recession, we probably are going to end the year 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:26.040 at a sumwhere around thirty four hundred and the SMP. 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:29.840 But if if it's more of a severe recession outcome, 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:32.360 you know, we might be looking at three thousand, you know, 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:34.520 And it's hard to predict these things because you know, 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:36.760 of course, there is a certain amount of lag between 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:40.520 the FED action and the desired outcome. And you know, 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:43.720 the what we're all questioning right now is that truly 0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:46.200 going to be data dependent? You know, as we rely 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:49.040 on them to be or will they react to the 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:53.080 pressures of the market, you know, and continue tightening, you know, 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:56.199 and as a result push us to the economic recession. 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:58.839 All right, to have a programmed question here that I've 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:01.840 written to myself that a couple of days um. And 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.200 this comes from a long time listener. I thought it 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:07.760 was very smart. He said, last year's inflation is transitory. 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:11.520 Is this year's short and set and shallow recession? Um? 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:15.680 What changes short and shallow? Too long and severe? What's 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:19.200 what's that hinge on? Well? I think that that's where 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:24.600 the risk or federal reserve overshooting or raising rates too much, 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:28.240 you know, because we're not seeing the desired reaction from 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:30.960 the inflation. That's where that comes in, because we have 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:35.079 to allow some time between the rate hikes and an 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:39.560 inflation coming down, you know. But the the current economic environment, 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:42.720 you know, has so many pressures. The cost of doing businesses, 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:46.760 high profit margins are getting narrower. Consumers are reluctant to 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:50.000 spend money on most things outside of poor necessities, you know, 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:52.720 unless you know, you're looking at travel and entertainment, which 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:55.680 is like natural in the post COVID environment now. But 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:59.040 this is really the you know, the time where negative 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:01.920 earnings and re visions that we're expecting over the next 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:05.920 couple of quarters take the central stage, because ultimately, once 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.480 the earnings are revised, it will be possible for the 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:11.920 u S company to meet earnings and exceed earnings, which 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:13.880 is going to be the pivot that we're looking for 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.120 into the next bowl market. But we're not quite there yet. 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:20.720 So are you. If an investor comes to you with 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:23.400 new money, what do you do with it? Well, with 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:28.560 new money currently understanding the risks and understanding you know, 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:30.920 what is ahead of us. You know, we would dollar 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:34.400 cost average into the equity market. We definitely would recommend 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:37.840 staying invested, but we will pivot and lean towards the 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:42.360 defensive sectors. Sectors like healthcare, utilities, consumer staples, and reads 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:45.920 all given in paying stocks because income is extremely important 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:49.160 in this inflationary environment. You know. The other thing to 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:54.319 consider is relative to bonds, stocks are pretty expensive. But finally, 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:57.560 unlike earlier in this year, there is a little bit 0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:00.520 of a safe haven in fixed income is actually in 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:05.480 short term high quality UM corporate bonds and treasuries. We 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:09.240 can get significant amount of yield in these sectors. And 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.640 you know, if there is an argument to be made 0:11:12.720 --> 0:11:16.240 for a safer acid allocation while we get through this 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:20.480 challenging bolatile UH cycle in the market, you know that 0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:22.760 that makes sense for a lot of investors here, all right, 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:25.520 Katerine and good stuff. Always appreciate getting your perspective, Katerina 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:31.760 semineity Uh, Senior VP at more Extantly Private Wealth Management. Well, 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.760 I've always said trading biotech stocks is a tough way 0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:38.120 to make a living. You really have to be right. 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:39.880 I mean, if you're right, you make a lot of money, 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.800 but boy, if you're wrong, you'll lose a lot of money. 0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:45.320 Here on these new drugs, today is a good day 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:49.640 for Biogen and it's Japanese partner ISI. Stocks are both surging. 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.439 At Biogen up about thirty six percent today. They had 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:55.200 some good news on one of their trials about one 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:58.240 of the Alzheimer's drugs. And to give us the latest 0:11:58.240 --> 0:12:01.679 is Robert Langworth. He covers all things biotech healthcare for 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:04.959 Bloomberg News. Robert talked to us about what bio jen 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:07.480 and Isai are are are doing today, what they're drug 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:10.160 is and kind of what we learned today. Yeah, so 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:12.520 this is a trial I mean actually run by a 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:15.480 SI as I did this trial, in charge this trial 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:18.640 and did this trial. Uh it's in partnership with Biogen, 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:21.520 but as I was really running in biogeneral, I think 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:23.640 would get half of the profits as far as long 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:28.840 standing collaboration. But basically, this is a drug to remove amyloids, 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.920 this toxic protein for the brains Alzheimer's patients. And drug 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:36.160 company has been trying to do this uh uh for 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.760 many years and have tested all sorts of other drugs 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.000 to do this, and all the previous trials of other 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:45.480 drugs for amyloid of generating their mixed mixed results are 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.280 failed entirely in trials, so they've been working on years 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:51.640 and years with little success. You may remember that Biogen 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:55.320 itself had another drug that was actually approved called aji Helm. 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:57.920 It was actually approved in one of the most controversial 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.760 u S approvals and history uh and it was another 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:02.959 emoid drug with the and but then Medicare refused to 0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:05.200 cover it because the results of that. Their trials are 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:07.360 kind of contradictory and no one could figure out whether 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.120 it worked or didn't work. So now this trial is 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:14.640 another amyloid lowering drug under the Biogen a side partnership. 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:16.800 But this one, as I said, aside was kind of 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:20.400 was was leading the charge on and this trial was 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:23.400 the first trial then emily lowering drug to show it 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:28.040 kind of a clearly uh clearly statistically positive effect and 0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:32.560 slowing cognitive decline. Like I've heard it described as like 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:34.880 a plaque plaque on your brain. Yeah, there's kind of 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:37.360 a kind of four mittle plaques in the brain. No 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.120 one is exactly sure how they are toxic. It's thought 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:41.920 to be toxic. It's one of the leading kind of 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:45.319 theories of Alzheimer's. Uh everything about alzremers of controversial, but 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:47.160 this is kind of one of the leading theories. So 0:13:47.320 --> 0:13:50.480 basically it appeared in this very big trial, this new 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:54.000 director show you know, a a small positive effect that 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:55.960 it appears to be kind of quite modest. It's like 0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:59.520 zero point five, zero point four or five points from 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:01.880 the eight point scale. So they think the big debate 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:04.800 next is going to be like how clinically meaningful you know, 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.719 is this? But you know, everyone thinks this is enough 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.440 to get approval. Side question kind of why do they 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.680 give these drugs such bad names? Ad you helm was 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:17.360 the last one? What's this one? Called it's similarly unpronouncing. Well, 0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:20.640 this is a generic name, is Lacannon, mab map stands 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.640 or monocola antibody. But but it's gonna get it. If 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:25.280 it's approved, it's going to get a brand name. And 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:27.080 we don't know what that's gonna be, so it could 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:30.280 be another incomprehensible brand name, you know, who knows. Is 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:32.880 that a strategy though? Is that part of the marketing strategy? 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:34.840 Like if you can't pronounce it and you can't remember 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:38.720 what it is, then you must think it's gonna work. Yeah, 0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:40.720 I don't know where they come up with these names. 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:43.720 You know, drug companies lots, you know, like come up 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:46.200 with names, lots of xs and zs in them, you know. 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:48.840 And I think they've spent spent a lot of money 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:51.120 consultants to come up with the name. So how they 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:55.040 do it, that's just the mystery. So Robert, I see 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:57.840 this stock, this Biogen stock. It's a forty billion dollar 0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:00.760 market cap stock. It's a thirty six day That tells 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:04.640 me that this is a breakthrough drug. But you're telling 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:06.200 me it's not really, or that there are a lot 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:09.960 of punters in in bio tech. I think, yeah, I guess, 0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:12.480 I mean this move and the stock tells me that 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:15.880 this is radical, and it's not radical, is it. It's 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:18.240 a step along the way, so like so yeah, the 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:21.560 step along the way. But you know, they haven't had 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:23.800 really any clear cut steps all in the way, and 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:28.080 it stord of like, you know, all the steps aren't aborted. 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:30.640 So you know, this is like the first successful trial 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:33.160 disease felling trial. So in that sense, it's, you know, 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:36.920 a breakthrough in critical trials, you know, but whether there 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:39.720 was a patient, it's the medical breakthrough not not so clear. Well, 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:42.800 they said the they said the use of the drug 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:46.160 reduces the pace of cognitive decline in people with early 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:51.200 disease by t over eighteen months when compared to placebo. 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:55.800 That doesn't sound great, but it sounds better than nothing. Yeah, 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:57.680 it's kind of like, you know, better than nothing. It's 0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:00.040 it's not so clear whether you know, you and the 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.000 patient of family would even detect the change in the difference. 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.080 I mean, you know, if you think about it, like, 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:09.280 you know, if you were going to decline, you know, yeah, 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:11.680 a hundred points in the scale, you're still going to 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:15.440 decline seventy three points in the scale. That's difference, so, 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:18.680 you know, but I guess they they're touting the possibility 0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:20.840 that it over a longer period of time, it may 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:24.920 do even an even better job. Right. Um Um, They 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:26.680 say that the top line data as strong as it 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.600 can be with high statistical significance across all end points. 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:32.800 Data doesn't get much cleaner than this in biotech. That's 0:16:32.840 --> 0:16:36.480 according to BEMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seagerman. You know 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:40.840 that because you probably wrote the story. But um, yeah, so, 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:42.920 I mean, this is the first thing I read when 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:44.920 I woke up this morning. I looked over the headlines 0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:46.800 and I picked this out because it's important to me 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:49.000 on a you know, personal level, and I think for 0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:52.520 millions of people it's a huge issue. It's a horrible 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:56.000 disease that affects everybody in the family if one person 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:58.720 gets it. Yeah, no, it's a very difficult disease. You know, 0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:01.400 the caregiver cost cost of this disease, you know, are 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.280 very very high. And this you know, this drug, you know, 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:07.320 it doesn't stop the decline. It only you know, slows 0:17:07.320 --> 0:17:09.959 it close it somewhat. And and we don't know a 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:11.720 lot of these details. All we have right now is 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:13.600 really just a press release from the company. Is there 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:16.359 anything else, Robert, Is there a moon shot out there, 0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:20.480 maybe something that attacks the disease differently than just removing 0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:24.240 the plaque from your brain? Um? Is anyone working on 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:27.359 something that could be better? Yeah, So, coming are working 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:29.480 on lots of things. Now. One of the hopeful things 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:32.560 is that there's a much kind of broader array of 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:36.840 attempts doing different strategies to try to treat the disease. Now, 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:39.960 it's not all just focused on this one idea amyloid. 0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:42.560 And you know, it seems, you know, clear a lot 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:44.439 of people are saying that, you know, we'll need to 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:47.920 make this ultimately more like cancer and attack it from 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:51.920 like three or four like different drugs at once, using 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:55.199 that attack three or four different mechanisms, because clearly, you know, 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:58.640 removing amyloidcase, this drug does a tremendous job at removing amyloid, 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:01.000 but what you get is this tony seven percent difference. 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:02.960 So it's clearly, you know, it seems to say that 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:04.960 that Emily's not the only thing where you're gonna have 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:11.119 to suggest go after multiple causes and over time, Robert, 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:13.560 just thirty seconds left in a post COVID world, is 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:15.959 it easier to get drugs approved or is it has 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:18.960 that changed at all? Um So you know there's no 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:21.879 fundamental change. I don't. I don't think in the in 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:25.520 the in the f days kind of approval strategy as 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:28.800 a result of COVID that I know of. But you know, 0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:32.320 certainly the the neurology division that has been looking at 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:34.919 throughout s light the ones for all shimers. They you know, 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:38.680 they are you know, uh, it seems to me, you know, 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:41.639 taking an aggressive strategy and you know, and trying to 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.919 you know, get drugs approved. That show begins shows some 0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:47.680 kind of a difference. You know, they approved the biogen 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:49.680 drug you know, based on bio mark is based on 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:52.800 emiloid loring alone. This one is the first one. This 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:55.360 one goes beyond that. It actually shows like a measurable 0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:58.920 critical difference. But it's small, It's really small, all right, Robert, good, 0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:01.640 good stuff. Thanks to that porting. We appreciate it, Robert Langreth. 0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:05.960 I want to bring in our next guest, Alo Tero. 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:09.400 He's a portfolio manager at Armada E T F Advisors. 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:12.760 Uh and they've got a US read E T F 0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:16.320 H A U S. Talking about the housing market. We 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:19.200 had some pending home sales today month on month was 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:22.600 down two percent. The consensus was for a decline at 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:24.679 one point five percent, but on a year on year basis, 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:26.760 that's how I like to look at it. UH came 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:28.840 in and minus twenty two and a half percent. So 0:19:29.040 --> 0:19:32.720 looks like this housing market rolling over al. Thanks so 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:34.640 much for joining us here, talk to us about your 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:37.800 h A U S read E t F and kind 0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:39.800 of kind of what you're trying to do with this 0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:42.320 et F and then love to get also your over 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:43.639 you just kind of this where we are in this 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:47.359 housing market. Sure ture's a good good morning. Thanks so 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.399 much for having me. Yes, and our MADA et F 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:55.160 is a relatively newly formed U advisory firm. Houses are 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:59.720 first product. UH. We basically have background in UH, in 0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:03.119 the read industry, in the into et F industry, and 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:06.480 then also in the direct real estate industry. And the 0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:09.640 goal with with house was really UM and our founder 0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:12.439 was looking at about two years ago and it was 0:20:12.480 --> 0:20:15.920 looking for a residential red e t F UM UH 0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:18.680 and he said, g one doesn't exist, maybe we need 0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:21.600 to create one, and that's exactly what what he did, 0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:24.000 and we launched a fund back in March, and again 0:20:24.000 --> 0:20:27.720 it's residential read ets. So it's it is certainly housing 0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:30.920 related to the extent that what goes on in the 0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:35.920 residential read market that's multifamily, uh, single family rental manufactured 0:20:35.960 --> 0:20:40.680 housing certainly a correlation there with the single family housing market. UM. 0:20:40.720 --> 0:20:44.360 But again the goal here is to number one current income. 0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:48.879 Number two hard assets, predictable cash flows, uh, you know, 0:20:48.920 --> 0:20:53.520 attractive dividends that are are growing an attractive rate, strong 0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:56.760 balance sheets, so lots of lots of good characteristics that 0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:01.560 roll up into the residential read market. So what do 0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:04.919 um the flows look like thus far? What are you 0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:09.000 looking at in terms of assets under management? So where 0:21:09.000 --> 0:21:12.440 we're tiny, guys. We we launched back in early March. 0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:15.000 We have a couple of you know, uh several several 0:21:15.000 --> 0:21:17.959 million dollars in the fund right now. We've launched into 0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:20.359