WEBVTT - The Right (And Wrong) Ways to Fight Trump 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:16.044 Pushkin. 0:00:20.884 --> 0:00:24.004 Hey everybody, Nate here, jumping in before the short so 0:00:24.044 --> 0:00:25.804 that we've been having a lot of fun answering your 0:00:25.804 --> 0:00:29.404 listener questions. So far, we've covered things like Pascal's Wager, 0:00:29.604 --> 0:00:32.084 the hot hand fallacy, or the fallacy of the hot 0:00:32.084 --> 0:00:35.884 hand fallacy actually, and the expected value of learning new languages. 0:00:36.604 --> 0:00:38.284 And we want to keep doing this kind of thing, 0:00:38.364 --> 0:00:41.284 So send us all your questions about risk decision making, 0:00:41.724 --> 0:00:44.964 game theory, poker, you name it. Reach out to us 0:00:45.004 --> 0:00:48.204 on social media or email at Risky Business at pushkin 0:00:48.284 --> 0:00:52.004 dot fm. Even if you're not a premium subscriber, this 0:00:52.044 --> 0:00:53.884 is a great way to support the show, so you 0:00:53.884 --> 0:00:55.644 can keep sharing it free of charge. 0:00:55.724 --> 0:00:57.044 We look forward to hearing from you. 0:01:03.124 --> 0:01:06.404 Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. 0:01:06.524 --> 0:01:08.124 I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:01:07.764 --> 0:01:10.084 And I'm Nate Silver in the show. 0:01:10.964 --> 0:01:14.164 It's going to be a Trump heavy episode, I think, Maria, 0:01:14.204 --> 0:01:15.804 there have been a lot of headlines lightly last week. 0:01:15.804 --> 0:01:19.284 We took a break to talk about AI, but we're 0:01:19.284 --> 0:01:21.284 going to talk about immigration, We're gonna talk a little 0:01:21.324 --> 0:01:24.164 bit more about terrors, We're going to talk about Trump 0:01:24.484 --> 0:01:29.564 versus Harvard, and more generally about political strategy. If you're 0:01:29.604 --> 0:01:32.484 a Democrat, if you're anti trumped, if you're part of 0:01:32.484 --> 0:01:33.844 the resistance, then. 0:01:34.204 --> 0:01:35.204 How should you fight back? 0:01:35.284 --> 0:01:38.884 How should you think about Trump's strategic objectives? 0:01:39.444 --> 0:01:41.644 And how do you know which are the right battles 0:01:41.684 --> 0:01:42.004 to pick. 0:01:47.484 --> 0:01:52.364 Let's start with the case that has been in everyone's mind. 0:01:52.484 --> 0:01:57.004 I'll let you start because you had an entire issue 0:01:57.044 --> 0:01:59.684 of Silver Bulletin about this. But I go to c 0:01:59.884 --> 0:02:01.284 NA give us a lignry. 0:02:01.604 --> 0:02:04.284 What that's fanis saying. I don't know, Maria, I don't know. 0:02:04.404 --> 0:02:04.884 I don't know. 0:02:05.164 --> 0:02:06.924 I'm jealous, but I'm not going to try it. I'm 0:02:06.924 --> 0:02:08.484 going to anglicize everything. 0:02:08.684 --> 0:02:10.364 Ate Nate a broad in Spain. 0:02:10.444 --> 0:02:11.964 What can I say? 0:02:12.924 --> 0:02:15.644 One of the challenges with this case is that, like, 0:02:16.524 --> 0:02:21.444 there are relatively few undisputed facts, right, But let's take 0:02:21.444 --> 0:02:26.484 a couple of undisputed facts, right. Kilmar Aberdo Garcia, who 0:02:26.524 --> 0:02:30.044 is twenty nine, is from El Salvador, entered the United 0:02:30.044 --> 0:02:34.164 States illegally, I believe through Texas some time ago. Father 0:02:34.204 --> 0:02:39.084 of two, He has never been arrested or charged with 0:02:39.084 --> 0:02:42.124 the crime. He has, however, been detained on a couple 0:02:42.204 --> 0:02:44.924 of occasions, and was not convicted of those charges. However, 0:02:45.484 --> 0:02:48.444 you know, judges at various times revealed that a preponderance 0:02:48.484 --> 0:02:50.084 of evidence was that he was a. 0:02:52.324 --> 0:02:54.284 Gang member of MS thirteen. 0:02:55.004 --> 0:02:58.004 His lawyer tells a different story, which is that, well, 0:02:58.004 --> 0:03:00.804 in El Salvador, you kind of get forced into picking 0:03:00.804 --> 0:03:04.684 a gang. I think the evidence is based on some 0:03:04.804 --> 0:03:08.924 degree of hearsay and profiling. The government is not necessarily 0:03:09.004 --> 0:03:11.684 releasing all the evidents that had but. 0:03:11.804 --> 0:03:14.004 You know, but the judge was making. 0:03:14.244 --> 0:03:18.284 These judges were making I suppose a probabilistic assessment, including 0:03:18.324 --> 0:03:22.804 tattoos that he had and clothing that he was wearing. Right, However, 0:03:22.844 --> 0:03:25.884 he was not supposed to be deported specifically to El 0:03:25.964 --> 0:03:29.164 Salvador because of a status he had, which is a 0:03:29.164 --> 0:03:34.324 step short of asylum, which said that because he could 0:03:34.404 --> 0:03:38.364 be threatened by a rival gag to MS thirteen if 0:03:38.364 --> 0:03:43.844 returned to El Salvador, that his deportation process was suspended. 0:03:43.924 --> 0:03:46.884 Right, and then was it a few weeks ago? 0:03:48.644 --> 0:03:55.284 He is supported Basically, the Trump administration is taking bus 0:03:55.364 --> 0:04:01.564 loads and planeloads of immigrants and sending them back to 0:04:01.604 --> 0:04:04.204 their native places or other countries that may be adjacent 0:04:04.204 --> 0:04:05.284 to their native places or not. 0:04:05.484 --> 0:04:08.564 Right now, I've ingested a lot of information about this case. 0:04:08.604 --> 0:04:09.964 I hope I'm remembering a right, right. 0:04:10.364 --> 0:04:14.324 It's not quite clear why he was included in one 0:04:14.324 --> 0:04:17.924 of these deportation flights. Right anyway, he sent to prison 0:04:18.204 --> 0:04:20.684 in Al Salvador. He's trince been transfer to another prison 0:04:20.764 --> 0:04:24.764 right based on what the administration said was an administrative error. 0:04:25.764 --> 0:04:28.724 I should say, not because I want to dignify it, 0:04:28.764 --> 0:04:30.924 but just for the sake of completeness, that the administration 0:04:30.964 --> 0:04:33.244 Stephen Miller has now changed this to and it said, 0:04:33.244 --> 0:04:35.884 oh yeah, this was actually what we mentioned you all along. 0:04:35.964 --> 0:04:40.084 But in court filings the administration said, we made this mistake. 0:04:41.524 --> 0:04:46.764 A district court ruled that the US should quote facilitate 0:04:47.044 --> 0:04:52.724 and effectuate his return to the US for due process right. 0:04:54.004 --> 0:04:56.884 It gets appealed to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court 0:04:57.084 --> 0:05:03.044 says facilitate, yes, but we're not going to pull this 0:05:03.084 --> 0:05:04.484 effectuate part for now. 0:05:04.604 --> 0:05:04.764 Right. 0:05:04.804 --> 0:05:07.604 But like the point is, the administration has no interest 0:05:08.124 --> 0:05:11.484 in bringing him back right now. How you would bring 0:05:11.524 --> 0:05:13.764 him back at El Salveder really's won back is tricky, right. 0:05:13.804 --> 0:05:15.444 This is why Supreme Court sot of Mayor wrote the 0:05:15.524 --> 0:05:18.204 ruling was concerned that, Okay, are you now acquiring the 0:05:18.284 --> 0:05:20.964 US to go and like snatch this guy from a 0:05:21.004 --> 0:05:23.564 foreign country. You know, you can't have the court dictating 0:05:24.644 --> 0:05:29.764 US foreign policy negotiations or invasions. So I don't think 0:05:29.804 --> 0:05:32.804 the court ruling is as clear as some of the 0:05:32.844 --> 0:05:34.884 coverage in liberal outlets that I've seen. I think the 0:05:34.924 --> 0:05:39.044 court there's a good podcast with Russ Stout, who's a 0:05:39.084 --> 0:05:44.364 conservative really center right Times New York Coimes columnists Jack Goldsmith, 0:05:44.364 --> 0:05:48.084 who is a Bush era attorney, and Goldsmith's view is like, 0:05:48.124 --> 0:05:53.164 the Court is actually trying to prevent a constitutional crisis 0:05:53.204 --> 0:05:58.364 here and hope that the administration comes to its census. 0:05:58.364 --> 0:06:00.244 And how the lower court is now kind of saying, okay, 0:06:00.364 --> 0:06:02.644 you got to give us your little book report on 0:06:02.844 --> 0:06:06.004 how you're trying to facilitate his return. 0:06:06.124 --> 0:06:06.284 Right. 0:06:06.364 --> 0:06:08.484 You know what's interesting and this now gets into the 0:06:08.484 --> 0:06:12.644 theory is like and the strategy is like, you know, 0:06:12.724 --> 0:06:17.964 Trump could take a bunch of kind of somewhat bad faith, 0:06:18.804 --> 0:06:21.644 perfunctory steps to say, well, but Kelly Real doesn't want 0:06:21.724 --> 0:06:26.204 him returned, right, And we sent an official democratic cable 0:06:26.324 --> 0:06:29.964 and request to this officially, and we have a plane 0:06:30.204 --> 0:06:33.044 or a battleship whatever ready to take him back whenever 0:06:33.204 --> 0:06:36.204 El Salvador commits to it. Instead, they really kind of 0:06:36.284 --> 0:06:40.924 like thumb their nose at this process by changing their story. 0:06:41.284 --> 0:06:44.484 The other thing, too, is the administration is also making 0:06:44.524 --> 0:06:48.764 these moves because of things. The political battle is fine, 0:06:49.284 --> 0:06:52.844 too good for it, I think, right, you know, jd Vance, 0:06:52.844 --> 0:06:56.404 I believe we could go Tuesday treated. Why is all 0:06:56.404 --> 0:06:58.804 the liberal media making this not exact quote, Why is 0:06:58.844 --> 0:07:00.524 all the liberal media making this such a big deal 0:07:00.844 --> 0:07:02.604 of this case and then proceeds to tweet about it 0:07:02.644 --> 0:07:05.404 like another nine times over the next three days. It's 0:07:05.404 --> 0:07:08.964 clearly adminterstory for them than tariffs. I think that if 0:07:09.004 --> 0:07:11.604 I bring Garcia, we're just a mirror and father with 0:07:11.804 --> 0:07:14.404 no brushes with the law. By the way, his wife 0:07:14.524 --> 0:07:19.204 also filed an order against him because of an accusation 0:07:19.244 --> 0:07:23.004 of domestic abuse that he could become violent. She is 0:07:23.004 --> 0:07:25.284 no longer pursuing that right. But you know, this is 0:07:25.324 --> 0:07:29.604 not the ideal test case. So I've said a lot. 0:07:30.124 --> 0:07:33.044 I have a longer summary of this in silver bulletin 0:07:33.044 --> 0:07:34.484 the newsletter if you want to read that. But Maria, 0:07:34.524 --> 0:07:36.764 I spoke for five minutes, so it's not I owe 0:07:36.844 --> 0:07:37.644 you the floor. 0:07:39.324 --> 0:07:41.444 It's all it's all good. You were you were setting 0:07:41.564 --> 0:07:43.804 up the you were setting the stage. But I think 0:07:43.844 --> 0:07:47.004 we have a few things going on here that we 0:07:47.004 --> 0:07:50.644 should really highlight because it is a mess and there 0:07:50.724 --> 0:07:53.644 are a lot of gray zones here where we don't 0:07:53.724 --> 0:07:57.524 have adequate information, right, Like we don't actually know a 0:07:57.564 --> 0:08:00.124 lot about the background, we don't know a lot about 0:08:00.124 --> 0:08:02.564 the decision process. Like there's just a lot of uncertainty 0:08:02.564 --> 0:08:05.324 around this on purpose, by the way, like there it 0:08:05.364 --> 0:08:08.484 could be much clearer. And I think that this ambiguity 0:08:08.764 --> 0:08:13.284 is being put out there on purpose in this kind 0:08:13.284 --> 0:08:18.084 of grayish way to allow for different interpretations and you know, 0:08:18.244 --> 0:08:21.724 basically to give the administration in the room that they need. 0:08:22.004 --> 0:08:25.244 But there are certain things that are that we do know. 0:08:25.844 --> 0:08:31.164 One is the deportation did happen without any sort of 0:08:31.244 --> 0:08:35.524 due process, right, So this is someone who was already 0:08:35.564 --> 0:08:38.684 in the US legally, right. So he yes, he originally 0:08:39.564 --> 0:08:43.364 entered illegally, but he now had protected status in the 0:08:43.524 --> 0:08:47.164 United States, married to a US citizen, you know, US 0:08:47.484 --> 0:08:52.044 citizen kids, and someone who has no criminal record in 0:08:52.084 --> 0:08:54.164 the US, which is so here. 0:08:55.204 --> 0:08:56.484 Here's why I get set. I guess I have to 0:08:56.524 --> 0:08:59.604 let you. But here's why get the spin part of 0:08:59.884 --> 0:09:00.604 you know I mean. 0:09:00.484 --> 0:09:02.004 Well, I'm not trying to do spin right now, I'm 0:09:02.004 --> 0:09:04.124 just trying to do like, what do we know? Right, 0:09:04.244 --> 0:09:06.804 we know that there's someone who has a protected status 0:09:06.804 --> 0:09:08.564 in the US. We have no idea if he was 0:09:08.604 --> 0:09:11.204 a former gang memor or, like, we don't know, right, 0:09:11.324 --> 0:09:13.964 Like we know that there's some evidence, there's some evidence 0:09:13.964 --> 0:09:16.484 to the contrary, we just do not know. So so 0:09:16.644 --> 0:09:20.204 that like, I don't know, but that doesn't That's not 0:09:20.244 --> 0:09:22.364 the thing that's relevant right now. The thing that is 0:09:22.404 --> 0:09:24.964 relevant is that he had protected status in the United 0:09:24.964 --> 0:09:30.324 States and that he was just deported right without any warning, 0:09:30.364 --> 0:09:33.444 without anything, without any due process of law. That's the 0:09:33.484 --> 0:09:36.524 scary part, Right even if he was even if we 0:09:36.604 --> 0:09:39.284 knew with one hundred percent certainty that he was a 0:09:39.324 --> 0:09:43.124 former gang member, right, but he was granted protected status 0:09:43.164 --> 0:09:46.084 in the United States. You can't just unilaterally say, you 0:09:46.124 --> 0:09:48.764 know what, even though the courts have said that we 0:09:48.844 --> 0:09:51.244 are not allowed to deport you, We're just gonna go 0:09:51.244 --> 0:09:54.164 ahead and do it with no warning, no attempt to 0:09:54.764 --> 0:09:57.244 have any sort of say your lawyer isn't going to know, 0:09:57.324 --> 0:09:58.844 No one's going to know. We're just going to put 0:09:58.884 --> 0:10:00.364 you on a plane and get you out of there. 0:10:00.724 --> 0:10:04.044 That's the one part of this story that is incontrovertible, 0:10:04.084 --> 0:10:07.164 regardless of who this person is, what his background is, 0:10:07.404 --> 0:10:09.684 and that is the scary element of it. And I 0:10:09.724 --> 0:10:12.844 think that that is the one thing that should be like, 0:10:13.284 --> 0:10:16.564 it's a legal point, but it's an incredibly important legal point, right, 0:10:16.604 --> 0:10:19.764 because that is the constitutional crisis. If that is allowed 0:10:19.764 --> 0:10:23.924 to happen, and happened with no repercussions, then what happens 0:10:23.964 --> 0:10:27.444 after that? Right? What happens if we just one of 0:10:27.484 --> 0:10:29.884 the wonderful things about the United States used to be 0:10:30.004 --> 0:10:34.564 due process of law, Right that you actually knew that 0:10:34.684 --> 0:10:37.604 no matter what, you would have kind of the legal system, 0:10:38.044 --> 0:10:41.404 and that that would that whole process would have to unravel. 0:10:41.724 --> 0:10:46.964 And then if it decided against you, Okay, you know, sometimes. 0:10:46.484 --> 0:10:47.044 It's not fair. 0:10:47.204 --> 0:10:50.044 It includes, by the way, in actual wars, we have 0:10:50.084 --> 0:10:53.924 foreign combatants who are still supposed to be given and 0:10:54.004 --> 0:10:56.124 usually we're given process. 0:10:55.804 --> 0:10:56.164 And they do. 0:10:56.324 --> 0:10:59.284 Yeah, we had so when I was in college, i 0:10:59.364 --> 0:11:03.004 interned at the DOJ and I was an intern at 0:11:03.004 --> 0:11:08.284 the Special Investigations which was prosecuting the remaining Nazi war criminals, 0:11:08.604 --> 0:11:12.684 and they had a number of huge cases where these 0:11:13.164 --> 0:11:17.604 notorious Nazis still got a trial, right, they went through 0:11:17.644 --> 0:11:20.764 the entire trial process in the United States, and in 0:11:20.804 --> 0:11:24.124 some cases, like the Demyano case, which was incredibly famous 0:11:24.124 --> 0:11:28.724 case multiple decades ago, these were people who weren't notorious 0:11:28.724 --> 0:11:31.724 guards who killed people, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. 0:11:32.244 --> 0:11:35.084 Due process, Right, you don't like it. You know they're guilty, 0:11:35.484 --> 0:11:39.764 and yet they still have that entire process appeals Like 0:11:39.844 --> 0:11:44.004 there's you go through the entire thing and in this 0:11:44.044 --> 0:11:47.724 particular case, none of it right zero. That should be 0:11:47.764 --> 0:11:52.364 actually scary to everyone. But as you point out strategically, 0:11:52.724 --> 0:11:55.364 why does jd vance, Why is he so thrilled that 0:11:55.404 --> 0:11:59.124 this is kind of the thing that people are talking about, 0:11:59.324 --> 0:12:03.364 because most people aren't talking about like the the legal 0:12:03.404 --> 0:12:05.324 part of it, the due process part of it. That's 0:12:05.364 --> 0:12:09.084 actually you know, democracy is at stake in some senses. 0:12:09.924 --> 0:12:12.684 They're talking about oh, you know, innocent man, et cetera, 0:12:12.684 --> 0:12:14.404 et cetera, and so many people are like, oh, we 0:12:14.444 --> 0:12:17.124 don't want gang members here. This is a talking point 0:12:17.164 --> 0:12:20.884 where Trump actually resonates where like we don't want immigrants, 0:12:20.884 --> 0:12:23.604 we don't want this, we don't want that. So they're 0:12:23.644 --> 0:12:27.084 trying to conflate the two stories and use this as 0:12:27.084 --> 0:12:29.324 a see, we're making the country safer and we're making 0:12:29.364 --> 0:12:33.844 you safer. And so they're trying to take this something 0:12:34.004 --> 0:12:37.764 very bad and actually conflate it with something that people 0:12:37.844 --> 0:12:38.884 are more sympathetic with. 0:12:40.164 --> 0:12:44.524 The JD Evans, I mean, he is an old school blogger. 0:12:44.644 --> 0:12:48.084 He'll argue with people on Twitter, not from the official 0:12:48.164 --> 0:12:51.724 VP account, but from the JD Events account, which follows 0:12:51.764 --> 0:12:57.644 me emmutually. His best version of the argument is that, look, 0:12:58.204 --> 0:13:01.084 you elected me and Donald Trump to crack down on 0:13:01.124 --> 0:13:05.884 illegal immigration, right, and Biden and Obama had put way 0:13:05.924 --> 0:13:09.164 too much of a finger on the scale where it's 0:13:09.564 --> 0:13:12.964 very hard to remove people, and we have to shift 0:13:12.964 --> 0:13:16.524 that paradigm. And if there are a few mistakes, may well, 0:13:16.964 --> 0:13:20.484 tough shit. These people are in the country illegally. And 0:13:20.564 --> 0:13:23.044 this guy, a particular guy, is not a not a 0:13:23.044 --> 0:13:23.524 good guy. 0:13:23.404 --> 0:13:25.044 Anyway, He's a gang member, right like. 0:13:26.924 --> 0:13:29.804 You know that gets undermined when Stephen Miller Lader says, oh, 0:13:29.844 --> 0:13:32.524 we meant to deport him, right, that gets undermine when 0:13:32.564 --> 0:13:34.164 Trump says what about US citizens? 0:13:34.244 --> 0:13:36.564 Right? You know they're bad guys. Want to send them 0:13:36.604 --> 0:13:37.284 down there too. 0:13:37.444 --> 0:13:43.004 But like, you know, but that argument is like understandable, 0:13:43.684 --> 0:13:50.644 I think, and relatable to some degree. And and you know, 0:13:51.004 --> 0:13:56.484 immigration is Trump's least bad issue in the polls. 0:13:57.764 --> 0:14:00.564 I would debate in some sense both kind of like. 0:14:00.604 --> 0:14:07.844 The substance and the strategy of like picking this case. 0:14:07.924 --> 0:14:11.684 So, first of all, this is not the worst thing 0:14:11.684 --> 0:14:12.324 Trump has done. 0:14:12.404 --> 0:14:14.764 The worst thing it was January sixth, from a standpoint 0:14:14.804 --> 0:14:18.124 of undermining legal norms or some of the different firings 0:14:18.124 --> 0:14:21.004 that he's done, you know, even in this term. 0:14:21.044 --> 0:14:22.484 I mean, you know, some people would say that. 0:14:22.524 --> 0:14:22.684 Like. 0:14:24.444 --> 0:14:30.084 What he's done with TikTok, where Congress basically passed a 0:14:30.164 --> 0:14:32.164 law to say we're outlawed tektuck in the US, and 0:14:32.244 --> 0:14:35.404 the administration is like filibustering that and delaying that, and 0:14:35.404 --> 0:14:40.404 that's being litigated. Like that's directly over overturning you know, 0:14:40.444 --> 0:14:41.524 Congress's vote. 0:14:41.564 --> 0:14:43.844 I think, you know, arguably that's bad. 0:14:43.884 --> 0:14:48.204 I mean, there are a whole array of deportation cases. 0:14:48.204 --> 0:14:50.884 The Supreme Court issued a mid dank order saying stop 0:14:51.164 --> 0:14:53.924 doing this. Right, it is a genuinely difficult point of 0:14:54.044 --> 0:14:58.084 law to compel the United States administration to do something 0:14:58.124 --> 0:15:00.604 in a foreign country, and Trump would make himself much 0:15:00.604 --> 0:15:04.484 more sympathetic if he like gave a shit or pretended 0:15:04.484 --> 0:15:06.524 to even pretended to pretend to give a shit, right, 0:15:06.604 --> 0:15:09.564 But like it is like a genuinely ambiguous thing, and 0:15:09.604 --> 0:15:13.164 I don't I mean, look, I don't think it absolutes, right. 0:15:13.204 --> 0:15:17.164 I mean I think you know, if zero was everything 0:15:17.244 --> 0:15:19.684 is great, and one hundred is a constitutional crisis, right, 0:15:21.644 --> 0:15:24.444 you know this six is from sixty two to sixty. 0:15:24.164 --> 0:15:26.124 Six or something like or something. 0:15:26.164 --> 0:15:28.684 But you know what I mean, And you kind of 0:15:28.684 --> 0:15:31.644 get in this kind of brinksmanship situation that does get 0:15:31.684 --> 0:15:35.724 into game theory and things like that, right. And part 0:15:35.724 --> 0:15:38.644 of the problem with brinksmanship is that the party who's 0:15:38.644 --> 0:15:42.364 behaving inappropriately or trying to be more aggressive, right, can say, Okay, 0:15:42.404 --> 0:15:46.204 well we're in it fourtify this territory a little bit 0:15:46.244 --> 0:15:49.284 further across this line, right, But you're not going to 0:15:49.284 --> 0:15:50.484 mix such a big deal over this. 0:15:50.484 --> 0:15:52.244 This isn't a battle worth picking. 0:15:52.244 --> 0:15:54.964 And then that kind of like cycles back again and 0:15:55.004 --> 0:15:55.724 again and again. 0:15:55.964 --> 0:15:56.484 By the way, I. 0:15:56.764 --> 0:15:59.644 Think liberals are pretty I think the Supreme Court is 0:15:59.684 --> 0:16:04.924 going to wind up being pretty unfriendly to Trump, right, 0:16:04.924 --> 0:16:07.204 And I think it's very strategic. Roberts in particular is 0:16:07.284 --> 0:16:10.164 quite strategic, and it's gonna say, Okay, we know we 0:16:10.204 --> 0:16:11.684 have to be careful because we don't want to get 0:16:11.724 --> 0:16:14.564 in a position where he's openly defying us, right, but 0:16:14.604 --> 0:16:18.124 we can make his life hard in various ways, and 0:16:18.164 --> 0:16:22.764 we see ourselves like maybe the only bulwark and st 0:16:22.804 --> 0:16:25.604 I mean, it's ironic that, like you know, and Alito 0:16:25.644 --> 0:16:28.564 and Thomas are too far to the right on many issues. 0:16:28.684 --> 0:16:31.644 Right, Roberts, to facto is a centrist right. 0:16:31.684 --> 0:16:35.804 So ironically, you know, the left is relying on three 0:16:35.924 --> 0:16:40.804 on the three Trump avoided judges, right, Kavanaugh, Barrett, and Gorsich, 0:16:41.044 --> 0:16:43.164 who you know have a little using differences from issue 0:16:43.164 --> 0:16:48.524 to issue. Right, but those three are you know, kind 0:16:48.564 --> 0:16:50.604 of you know, democracy's best. 0:16:51.844 --> 0:16:53.644 Defense until until the midterms at. 0:16:53.644 --> 0:16:56.524 Least, and excluding state government. But you know, but like 0:16:56.564 --> 0:16:58.804 that there is a deep irony there. 0:16:58.924 --> 0:17:01.484 I think, yeah, no, there's an irony on the fact 0:17:01.564 --> 0:17:05.564 that there are best defense actually puts my constitutional crisis 0:17:05.644 --> 0:17:08.884 meter a little bit higher than yours. State. I think 0:17:08.924 --> 0:17:12.804 we're a little above sixty six percent. But but I 0:17:12.884 --> 0:17:16.324 think I think that there are two things here. One 0:17:16.564 --> 0:17:19.644 this is just one, and you kind of hinted at 0:17:19.684 --> 0:17:22.364 this of a litany of legal issues that are happening 0:17:22.444 --> 0:17:25.364 right now. Right there are challenges all over the country. 0:17:25.684 --> 0:17:29.324 But I think that there will probably come a moment 0:17:30.204 --> 0:17:34.964 where there is kind of a black and white confrontation, 0:17:35.364 --> 0:17:37.884 right because right now there are kind of degrees you 0:17:37.924 --> 0:17:40.644 can say, well like he is he openly defying it. 0:17:40.804 --> 0:17:42.724 But I think there will come a point where there 0:17:42.764 --> 0:17:45.044 will be like a Okay, you have to do this, 0:17:45.524 --> 0:17:49.964 or or where in a constitutional crisis. I think that 0:17:50.044 --> 0:17:54.564 breaking point probably probably will come, and I'm interested to 0:17:54.604 --> 0:17:57.164 see how the Trump administration will respond to that, because 0:17:57.204 --> 0:18:00.684 right now they've been very defiant, and as you said, 0:18:00.684 --> 0:18:02.484 it would be much more sympathetic if they at least 0:18:02.484 --> 0:18:04.044 made an effort and was like, oh, you know, we're 0:18:04.044 --> 0:18:06.484 really trying to get him back, and instead Trump's like, 0:18:06.524 --> 0:18:08.684 fuck you, like we don't want to get him back, 0:18:08.724 --> 0:18:11.004 We're not going to do that, and then they just 0:18:11.164 --> 0:18:13.484 lie also about what the Supreme Court said, Oh you 0:18:13.524 --> 0:18:15.084 didn't you know, you didn't tell us to do this. 0:18:15.404 --> 0:18:18.084 That's why I said, right now we have like these ambiguities. 0:18:18.124 --> 0:18:19.804 There will come a point where I think there will 0:18:19.844 --> 0:18:22.844 be an an ambiguous moment where where there's going to 0:18:22.844 --> 0:18:23.924 be a decision point. 0:18:27.844 --> 0:18:29.764 And will be right back after this break. 0:18:36.964 --> 0:18:38.844 I think that the other issue here, and this is 0:18:38.884 --> 0:18:41.284 something that we've been hinting at and that I think 0:18:41.404 --> 0:18:46.124 you've written about, Nate, is that so immigration, right? Why 0:18:46.244 --> 0:18:48.804 is it a good issue for Trump? Because you can 0:18:48.844 --> 0:18:51.004 make it emotional. You can make it visceral, like people 0:18:51.084 --> 0:18:53.204 can be like, oh, you know, they're taking my jobs, 0:18:53.244 --> 0:18:56.444 they're making me you know, whether or not it's true, right, 0:18:56.484 --> 0:18:58.764 whether or not these things are true. You can make 0:18:58.804 --> 0:19:02.284 this emotional appeal that people can like immediately see right, 0:19:02.364 --> 0:19:07.444 it's something that they can respond to. Constitutional crisis, democracy 0:19:07.564 --> 0:19:11.204 is at stake, is something that's much more intellectual, much 0:19:11.324 --> 0:19:14.844 kind of broader, and in the long run, obviously this 0:19:15.004 --> 0:19:17.404 is hugely important. This is kind of what our country 0:19:17.924 --> 0:19:21.244 is founded on. But it's not if Democrats are going 0:19:21.284 --> 0:19:23.084 to say, Okay, this is an issue that we can 0:19:23.124 --> 0:19:27.284 focus on, that's probably not it if you want to 0:19:27.364 --> 0:19:30.524 win votes, because it's much easier to say yeah, but 0:19:30.604 --> 0:19:34.684 immigrants right, as opposed to oh, constitutional crisis, it's working 0:19:34.724 --> 0:19:37.604 its way through the courts. It's a much more difficult 0:19:38.044 --> 0:19:40.684 You can't make an emotional appeal here you can't be 0:19:40.804 --> 0:19:43.404 and people will always say, oh, well, it doesn't affect me, 0:19:43.844 --> 0:19:48.204 right until it does, they'll say it doesn't. And so 0:19:48.564 --> 0:19:51.684 in some ways, like we can all agree that this 0:19:51.764 --> 0:19:53.884 is important, and this is an important battle that needs 0:19:53.884 --> 0:19:57.524 to be fought, but is this the one issue that 0:19:57.564 --> 0:20:00.404 people should be focusing on? And you made the argument 0:20:00.444 --> 0:20:02.204 and I actually agree with this, and we made this 0:20:02.284 --> 0:20:04.724 argument on the show that there are things that people 0:20:04.804 --> 0:20:07.164 do agree on that can win the election, that can 0:20:07.204 --> 0:20:10.724 help you with everything, like the constitutional crisis says like tariffs. 0:20:10.884 --> 0:20:14.844 I mean, Nate, why didn't the United States decide to 0:20:14.884 --> 0:20:17.444 go to war with England before it was the United States, 0:20:17.484 --> 0:20:19.644 when it was still a colony? Do you remember remember 0:20:19.724 --> 0:20:20.764 the Boston Tea Party? 0:20:20.764 --> 0:20:21.844 What was that all about? 0:20:22.364 --> 0:20:26.364 Oh? Right, tariffs on tea. We went to war with 0:20:26.524 --> 0:20:30.244 England over tariffs. That's how much we wanted to have 0:20:30.364 --> 0:20:34.564 us say, no taxation without representation. Right. So tariffs are 0:20:34.604 --> 0:20:37.324 an issue that has been resonant with the United States 0:20:37.444 --> 0:20:41.644 for centuries and continues to be so, so we can 0:20:41.804 --> 0:20:43.884 you know, on a broad level, there are lots of 0:20:43.924 --> 0:20:48.084 people who can and should be fighting these battles, these 0:20:48.124 --> 0:20:51.484 constitutional battles do process. I'm petrified. You know, I'm a 0:20:51.564 --> 0:20:55.004 US citizen, but I'm a naturalized citizen, right, Like what 0:20:55.124 --> 0:20:58.564 happens if he says, well, people who aren't naturalized citizens, Like, 0:20:58.604 --> 0:21:01.884 we can deport those too. People even if you were 0:21:02.044 --> 0:21:05.764 a natural born citizen but your parents were illegal, you know, 0:21:07.284 --> 0:21:10.284 you can be deported too. And that is actually something 0:21:10.324 --> 0:21:12.924 that's being fought in the courts too. So there are 0:21:12.924 --> 0:21:16.404 things that are incredibly important and incredibly scary. But then 0:21:16.724 --> 0:21:19.244 there's also Okay, how do we win elections? Right? How 0:21:19.244 --> 0:21:21.644 do we get votes? How do we get people to 0:21:21.764 --> 0:21:25.884 actually mobilize? And there are things like tariffs that have 0:21:26.044 --> 0:21:31.364 worked for centuries and things that people can feel because 0:21:31.364 --> 0:21:34.764 a tariff you can feel it viscerally. Bottom line, it hurts. 0:21:34.844 --> 0:21:36.404 It hits, It affects a. 0:21:36.404 --> 0:21:38.044 Lot of people's stock propolebly is taken to hit. 0:21:38.044 --> 0:21:41.444 But also like the University of Mission consumer sentiment number 0:21:41.564 --> 0:21:45.324 just had it's like second worst decline or print since 0:21:45.404 --> 0:21:48.844 like the history of the index, right, and inflation expectations 0:21:48.924 --> 0:21:51.244 are about as high as they ever been now. 0:21:51.284 --> 0:21:52.644 And the short way once some people do is they 0:21:52.684 --> 0:21:54.324 accelerate purchases. 0:21:54.404 --> 0:21:56.604 Right, So I want to buy this card now before 0:21:57.764 --> 0:22:01.084 tariffs go into effect, right to some acceleration of that cycle. 0:22:01.084 --> 0:22:03.404