1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:16,044 Speaker 1: Pushkin. 2 00:00:20,884 --> 00:00:24,004 Speaker 2: Hey everybody, Nate here, jumping in before the short so 3 00:00:24,044 --> 00:00:25,804 Speaker 2: that we've been having a lot of fun answering your 4 00:00:25,804 --> 00:00:29,404 Speaker 2: listener questions. So far, we've covered things like Pascal's Wager, 5 00:00:29,604 --> 00:00:32,084 Speaker 2: the hot hand fallacy, or the fallacy of the hot 6 00:00:32,084 --> 00:00:35,884 Speaker 2: hand fallacy actually, and the expected value of learning new languages. 7 00:00:36,604 --> 00:00:38,284 Speaker 2: And we want to keep doing this kind of thing, 8 00:00:38,364 --> 00:00:41,284 Speaker 2: So send us all your questions about risk decision making, 9 00:00:41,724 --> 00:00:44,964 Speaker 2: game theory, poker, you name it. Reach out to us 10 00:00:45,004 --> 00:00:48,204 Speaker 2: on social media or email at Risky Business at pushkin 11 00:00:48,284 --> 00:00:52,004 Speaker 2: dot fm. Even if you're not a premium subscriber, this 12 00:00:52,044 --> 00:00:53,884 Speaker 2: is a great way to support the show, so you 13 00:00:53,884 --> 00:00:55,644 Speaker 2: can keep sharing it free of charge. 14 00:00:55,724 --> 00:00:57,044 Speaker 3: We look forward to hearing from you. 15 00:01:03,124 --> 00:01:06,404 Speaker 1: Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. 16 00:01:06,524 --> 00:01:08,124 Speaker 1: I'm Maria Kanakova. 17 00:01:07,764 --> 00:01:10,084 Speaker 3: And I'm Nate Silver in the show. 18 00:01:10,964 --> 00:01:14,164 Speaker 2: It's going to be a Trump heavy episode, I think, Maria, 19 00:01:14,204 --> 00:01:15,804 Speaker 2: there have been a lot of headlines lightly last week. 20 00:01:15,804 --> 00:01:19,284 Speaker 2: We took a break to talk about AI, but we're 21 00:01:19,284 --> 00:01:21,284 Speaker 2: going to talk about immigration, We're gonna talk a little 22 00:01:21,324 --> 00:01:24,164 Speaker 2: bit more about terrors, We're going to talk about Trump 23 00:01:24,484 --> 00:01:29,564 Speaker 2: versus Harvard, and more generally about political strategy. If you're 24 00:01:29,604 --> 00:01:32,484 Speaker 2: a Democrat, if you're anti trumped, if you're part of 25 00:01:32,484 --> 00:01:33,844 Speaker 2: the resistance, then. 26 00:01:34,204 --> 00:01:35,204 Speaker 3: How should you fight back? 27 00:01:35,284 --> 00:01:38,884 Speaker 2: How should you think about Trump's strategic objectives? 28 00:01:39,444 --> 00:01:41,644 Speaker 3: And how do you know which are the right battles 29 00:01:41,684 --> 00:01:42,004 Speaker 3: to pick. 30 00:01:47,484 --> 00:01:52,364 Speaker 1: Let's start with the case that has been in everyone's mind. 31 00:01:52,484 --> 00:01:57,004 Speaker 1: I'll let you start because you had an entire issue 32 00:01:57,044 --> 00:01:59,684 Speaker 1: of Silver Bulletin about this. But I go to c 33 00:01:59,884 --> 00:02:01,284 Speaker 1: NA give us a lignry. 34 00:02:01,604 --> 00:02:04,284 Speaker 3: What that's fanis saying. I don't know, Maria, I don't know. 35 00:02:04,404 --> 00:02:04,884 Speaker 3: I don't know. 36 00:02:05,164 --> 00:02:06,924 Speaker 2: I'm jealous, but I'm not going to try it. I'm 37 00:02:06,924 --> 00:02:08,484 Speaker 2: going to anglicize everything. 38 00:02:08,684 --> 00:02:10,364 Speaker 1: Ate Nate a broad in Spain. 39 00:02:10,444 --> 00:02:11,964 Speaker 3: What can I say? 40 00:02:12,924 --> 00:02:15,644 Speaker 2: One of the challenges with this case is that, like, 41 00:02:16,524 --> 00:02:21,444 Speaker 2: there are relatively few undisputed facts, right, But let's take 42 00:02:21,444 --> 00:02:26,484 Speaker 2: a couple of undisputed facts, right. Kilmar Aberdo Garcia, who 43 00:02:26,524 --> 00:02:30,044 Speaker 2: is twenty nine, is from El Salvador, entered the United 44 00:02:30,044 --> 00:02:34,164 Speaker 2: States illegally, I believe through Texas some time ago. Father 45 00:02:34,204 --> 00:02:39,084 Speaker 2: of two, He has never been arrested or charged with 46 00:02:39,084 --> 00:02:42,124 Speaker 2: the crime. He has, however, been detained on a couple 47 00:02:42,204 --> 00:02:44,924 Speaker 2: of occasions, and was not convicted of those charges. However, 48 00:02:45,484 --> 00:02:48,444 Speaker 2: you know, judges at various times revealed that a preponderance 49 00:02:48,484 --> 00:02:50,084 Speaker 2: of evidence was that he was a. 50 00:02:52,324 --> 00:02:54,284 Speaker 3: Gang member of MS thirteen. 51 00:02:55,004 --> 00:02:58,004 Speaker 2: His lawyer tells a different story, which is that, well, 52 00:02:58,004 --> 00:03:00,804 Speaker 2: in El Salvador, you kind of get forced into picking 53 00:03:00,804 --> 00:03:04,684 Speaker 2: a gang. I think the evidence is based on some 54 00:03:04,804 --> 00:03:08,924 Speaker 2: degree of hearsay and profiling. The government is not necessarily 55 00:03:09,004 --> 00:03:11,684 Speaker 2: releasing all the evidents that had but. 56 00:03:11,804 --> 00:03:14,004 Speaker 3: You know, but the judge was making. 57 00:03:14,244 --> 00:03:18,284 Speaker 2: These judges were making I suppose a probabilistic assessment, including 58 00:03:18,324 --> 00:03:22,804 Speaker 2: tattoos that he had and clothing that he was wearing. Right, However, 59 00:03:22,844 --> 00:03:25,884 Speaker 2: he was not supposed to be deported specifically to El 60 00:03:25,964 --> 00:03:29,164 Speaker 2: Salvador because of a status he had, which is a 61 00:03:29,164 --> 00:03:34,324 Speaker 2: step short of asylum, which said that because he could 62 00:03:34,404 --> 00:03:38,364 Speaker 2: be threatened by a rival gag to MS thirteen if 63 00:03:38,364 --> 00:03:43,844 Speaker 2: returned to El Salvador, that his deportation process was suspended. 64 00:03:43,924 --> 00:03:46,884 Speaker 3: Right, and then was it a few weeks ago? 65 00:03:48,644 --> 00:03:55,284 Speaker 2: He is supported Basically, the Trump administration is taking bus 66 00:03:55,364 --> 00:04:01,564 Speaker 2: loads and planeloads of immigrants and sending them back to 67 00:04:01,604 --> 00:04:04,204 Speaker 2: their native places or other countries that may be adjacent 68 00:04:04,204 --> 00:04:05,284 Speaker 2: to their native places or not. 69 00:04:05,484 --> 00:04:08,564 Speaker 3: Right now, I've ingested a lot of information about this case. 70 00:04:08,604 --> 00:04:09,964 Speaker 3: I hope I'm remembering a right, right. 71 00:04:10,364 --> 00:04:14,324 Speaker 2: It's not quite clear why he was included in one 72 00:04:14,324 --> 00:04:17,924 Speaker 2: of these deportation flights. Right anyway, he sent to prison 73 00:04:18,204 --> 00:04:20,684 Speaker 2: in Al Salvador. He's trince been transfer to another prison 74 00:04:20,764 --> 00:04:24,764 Speaker 2: right based on what the administration said was an administrative error. 75 00:04:25,764 --> 00:04:28,724 Speaker 2: I should say, not because I want to dignify it, 76 00:04:28,764 --> 00:04:30,924 Speaker 2: but just for the sake of completeness, that the administration 77 00:04:30,964 --> 00:04:33,244 Speaker 2: Stephen Miller has now changed this to and it said, 78 00:04:33,244 --> 00:04:35,884 Speaker 2: oh yeah, this was actually what we mentioned you all along. 79 00:04:35,964 --> 00:04:40,084 Speaker 2: But in court filings the administration said, we made this mistake. 80 00:04:41,524 --> 00:04:46,764 Speaker 2: A district court ruled that the US should quote facilitate 81 00:04:47,044 --> 00:04:52,724 Speaker 2: and effectuate his return to the US for due process right. 82 00:04:54,004 --> 00:04:56,884 Speaker 2: It gets appealed to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court 83 00:04:57,084 --> 00:05:03,044 Speaker 2: says facilitate, yes, but we're not going to pull this 84 00:05:03,084 --> 00:05:04,484 Speaker 2: effectuate part for now. 85 00:05:04,604 --> 00:05:04,764 Speaker 3: Right. 86 00:05:04,804 --> 00:05:07,604 Speaker 2: But like the point is, the administration has no interest 87 00:05:08,124 --> 00:05:11,484 Speaker 2: in bringing him back right now. How you would bring 88 00:05:11,524 --> 00:05:13,764 Speaker 2: him back at El Salveder really's won back is tricky, right. 89 00:05:13,804 --> 00:05:15,444 Speaker 2: This is why Supreme Court sot of Mayor wrote the 90 00:05:15,524 --> 00:05:18,204 Speaker 2: ruling was concerned that, Okay, are you now acquiring the 91 00:05:18,284 --> 00:05:20,964 Speaker 2: US to go and like snatch this guy from a 92 00:05:21,004 --> 00:05:23,564 Speaker 2: foreign country. You know, you can't have the court dictating 93 00:05:24,644 --> 00:05:29,764 Speaker 2: US foreign policy negotiations or invasions. So I don't think 94 00:05:29,804 --> 00:05:32,804 Speaker 2: the court ruling is as clear as some of the 95 00:05:32,844 --> 00:05:34,884 Speaker 2: coverage in liberal outlets that I've seen. I think the 96 00:05:34,924 --> 00:05:39,044 Speaker 2: court there's a good podcast with Russ Stout, who's a 97 00:05:39,084 --> 00:05:44,364 Speaker 2: conservative really center right Times New York Coimes columnists Jack Goldsmith, 98 00:05:44,364 --> 00:05:48,084 Speaker 2: who is a Bush era attorney, and Goldsmith's view is like, 99 00:05:48,124 --> 00:05:53,164 Speaker 2: the Court is actually trying to prevent a constitutional crisis 100 00:05:53,204 --> 00:05:58,364 Speaker 2: here and hope that the administration comes to its census. 101 00:05:58,364 --> 00:06:00,244 Speaker 2: And how the lower court is now kind of saying, okay, 102 00:06:00,364 --> 00:06:02,644 Speaker 2: you got to give us your little book report on 103 00:06:02,844 --> 00:06:06,004 Speaker 2: how you're trying to facilitate his return. 104 00:06:06,124 --> 00:06:06,284 Speaker 3: Right. 105 00:06:06,364 --> 00:06:08,484 Speaker 2: You know what's interesting and this now gets into the 106 00:06:08,484 --> 00:06:12,644 Speaker 2: theory is like and the strategy is like, you know, 107 00:06:12,724 --> 00:06:17,964 Speaker 2: Trump could take a bunch of kind of somewhat bad faith, 108 00:06:18,804 --> 00:06:21,644 Speaker 2: perfunctory steps to say, well, but Kelly Real doesn't want 109 00:06:21,724 --> 00:06:26,204 Speaker 2: him returned, right, And we sent an official democratic cable 110 00:06:26,324 --> 00:06:29,964 Speaker 2: and request to this officially, and we have a plane 111 00:06:30,204 --> 00:06:33,044 Speaker 2: or a battleship whatever ready to take him back whenever 112 00:06:33,204 --> 00:06:36,204 Speaker 2: El Salvador commits to it. Instead, they really kind of 113 00:06:36,284 --> 00:06:40,924 Speaker 2: like thumb their nose at this process by changing their story. 114 00:06:41,284 --> 00:06:44,484 Speaker 2: The other thing, too, is the administration is also making 115 00:06:44,524 --> 00:06:48,764 Speaker 2: these moves because of things. The political battle is fine, 116 00:06:49,284 --> 00:06:52,844 Speaker 2: too good for it, I think, right, you know, jd Vance, 117 00:06:52,844 --> 00:06:56,404 Speaker 2: I believe we could go Tuesday treated. Why is all 118 00:06:56,404 --> 00:06:58,804 Speaker 2: the liberal media making this not exact quote, Why is 119 00:06:58,844 --> 00:07:00,524 Speaker 2: all the liberal media making this such a big deal 120 00:07:00,844 --> 00:07:02,604 Speaker 2: of this case and then proceeds to tweet about it 121 00:07:02,644 --> 00:07:05,404 Speaker 2: like another nine times over the next three days. It's 122 00:07:05,404 --> 00:07:08,964 Speaker 2: clearly adminterstory for them than tariffs. I think that if 123 00:07:09,004 --> 00:07:11,604 Speaker 2: I bring Garcia, we're just a mirror and father with 124 00:07:11,804 --> 00:07:14,404 Speaker 2: no brushes with the law. By the way, his wife 125 00:07:14,524 --> 00:07:19,204 Speaker 2: also filed an order against him because of an accusation 126 00:07:19,244 --> 00:07:23,004 Speaker 2: of domestic abuse that he could become violent. She is 127 00:07:23,004 --> 00:07:25,284 Speaker 2: no longer pursuing that right. But you know, this is 128 00:07:25,324 --> 00:07:29,604 Speaker 2: not the ideal test case. So I've said a lot. 129 00:07:30,124 --> 00:07:33,044 Speaker 2: I have a longer summary of this in silver bulletin 130 00:07:33,044 --> 00:07:34,484 Speaker 2: the newsletter if you want to read that. But Maria, 131 00:07:34,524 --> 00:07:36,764 Speaker 2: I spoke for five minutes, so it's not I owe 132 00:07:36,844 --> 00:07:37,644 Speaker 2: you the floor. 133 00:07:39,324 --> 00:07:41,444 Speaker 1: It's all it's all good. You were you were setting 134 00:07:41,564 --> 00:07:43,804 Speaker 1: up the you were setting the stage. But I think 135 00:07:43,844 --> 00:07:47,004 Speaker 1: we have a few things going on here that we 136 00:07:47,004 --> 00:07:50,644 Speaker 1: should really highlight because it is a mess and there 137 00:07:50,724 --> 00:07:53,644 Speaker 1: are a lot of gray zones here where we don't 138 00:07:53,724 --> 00:07:57,524 Speaker 1: have adequate information, right, Like we don't actually know a 139 00:07:57,564 --> 00:08:00,124 Speaker 1: lot about the background, we don't know a lot about 140 00:08:00,124 --> 00:08:02,564 Speaker 1: the decision process. Like there's just a lot of uncertainty 141 00:08:02,564 --> 00:08:05,324 Speaker 1: around this on purpose, by the way, like there it 142 00:08:05,364 --> 00:08:08,484 Speaker 1: could be much clearer. And I think that this ambiguity 143 00:08:08,764 --> 00:08:13,284 Speaker 1: is being put out there on purpose in this kind 144 00:08:13,284 --> 00:08:18,084 Speaker 1: of grayish way to allow for different interpretations and you know, 145 00:08:18,244 --> 00:08:21,724 Speaker 1: basically to give the administration in the room that they need. 146 00:08:22,004 --> 00:08:25,244 Speaker 1: But there are certain things that are that we do know. 147 00:08:25,844 --> 00:08:31,164 Speaker 1: One is the deportation did happen without any sort of 148 00:08:31,244 --> 00:08:35,524 Speaker 1: due process, right, So this is someone who was already 149 00:08:35,564 --> 00:08:38,684 Speaker 1: in the US legally, right. So he yes, he originally 150 00:08:39,564 --> 00:08:43,364 Speaker 1: entered illegally, but he now had protected status in the 151 00:08:43,524 --> 00:08:47,164 Speaker 1: United States, married to a US citizen, you know, US 152 00:08:47,484 --> 00:08:52,044 Speaker 1: citizen kids, and someone who has no criminal record in 153 00:08:52,084 --> 00:08:54,164 Speaker 1: the US, which is so here. 154 00:08:55,204 --> 00:08:56,484 Speaker 3: Here's why I get set. I guess I have to 155 00:08:56,524 --> 00:08:59,604 Speaker 3: let you. But here's why get the spin part of 156 00:08:59,884 --> 00:09:00,604 Speaker 3: you know I mean. 157 00:09:00,484 --> 00:09:02,004 Speaker 1: Well, I'm not trying to do spin right now, I'm 158 00:09:02,004 --> 00:09:04,124 Speaker 1: just trying to do like, what do we know? Right, 159 00:09:04,244 --> 00:09:06,804 Speaker 1: we know that there's someone who has a protected status 160 00:09:06,804 --> 00:09:08,564 Speaker 1: in the US. We have no idea if he was 161 00:09:08,604 --> 00:09:11,204 Speaker 1: a former gang memor or, like, we don't know, right, 162 00:09:11,324 --> 00:09:13,964 Speaker 1: Like we know that there's some evidence, there's some evidence 163 00:09:13,964 --> 00:09:16,484 Speaker 1: to the contrary, we just do not know. So so 164 00:09:16,644 --> 00:09:20,204 Speaker 1: that like, I don't know, but that doesn't That's not 165 00:09:20,244 --> 00:09:22,364 Speaker 1: the thing that's relevant right now. The thing that is 166 00:09:22,404 --> 00:09:24,964 Speaker 1: relevant is that he had protected status in the United 167 00:09:24,964 --> 00:09:30,324 Speaker 1: States and that he was just deported right without any warning, 168 00:09:30,364 --> 00:09:33,444 Speaker 1: without anything, without any due process of law. That's the 169 00:09:33,484 --> 00:09:36,524 Speaker 1: scary part, Right even if he was even if we 170 00:09:36,604 --> 00:09:39,284 Speaker 1: knew with one hundred percent certainty that he was a 171 00:09:39,324 --> 00:09:43,124 Speaker 1: former gang member, right, but he was granted protected status 172 00:09:43,164 --> 00:09:46,084 Speaker 1: in the United States. You can't just unilaterally say, you 173 00:09:46,124 --> 00:09:48,764 Speaker 1: know what, even though the courts have said that we 174 00:09:48,844 --> 00:09:51,244 Speaker 1: are not allowed to deport you, We're just gonna go 175 00:09:51,244 --> 00:09:54,164 Speaker 1: ahead and do it with no warning, no attempt to 176 00:09:54,764 --> 00:09:57,244 Speaker 1: have any sort of say your lawyer isn't going to know, 177 00:09:57,324 --> 00:09:58,844 Speaker 1: No one's going to know. We're just going to put 178 00:09:58,884 --> 00:10:00,364 Speaker 1: you on a plane and get you out of there. 179 00:10:00,724 --> 00:10:04,044 Speaker 1: That's the one part of this story that is incontrovertible, 180 00:10:04,084 --> 00:10:07,164 Speaker 1: regardless of who this person is, what his background is, 181 00:10:07,404 --> 00:10:09,684 Speaker 1: and that is the scary element of it. And I 182 00:10:09,724 --> 00:10:12,844 Speaker 1: think that that is the one thing that should be like, 183 00:10:13,284 --> 00:10:16,564 Speaker 1: it's a legal point, but it's an incredibly important legal point, right, 184 00:10:16,604 --> 00:10:19,764 Speaker 1: because that is the constitutional crisis. If that is allowed 185 00:10:19,764 --> 00:10:23,924 Speaker 1: to happen, and happened with no repercussions, then what happens 186 00:10:23,964 --> 00:10:27,444 Speaker 1: after that? Right? What happens if we just one of 187 00:10:27,484 --> 00:10:29,884 Speaker 1: the wonderful things about the United States used to be 188 00:10:30,004 --> 00:10:34,564 Speaker 1: due process of law, Right that you actually knew that 189 00:10:34,684 --> 00:10:37,604 Speaker 1: no matter what, you would have kind of the legal system, 190 00:10:38,044 --> 00:10:41,404 Speaker 1: and that that would that whole process would have to unravel. 191 00:10:41,724 --> 00:10:46,964 Speaker 1: And then if it decided against you, Okay, you know, sometimes. 192 00:10:46,484 --> 00:10:47,044 Speaker 3: It's not fair. 193 00:10:47,204 --> 00:10:50,044 Speaker 2: It includes, by the way, in actual wars, we have 194 00:10:50,084 --> 00:10:53,924 Speaker 2: foreign combatants who are still supposed to be given and 195 00:10:54,004 --> 00:10:56,124 Speaker 2: usually we're given process. 196 00:10:55,804 --> 00:10:56,164 Speaker 3: And they do. 197 00:10:56,324 --> 00:10:59,284 Speaker 1: Yeah, we had so when I was in college, i 198 00:10:59,364 --> 00:11:03,004 Speaker 1: interned at the DOJ and I was an intern at 199 00:11:03,004 --> 00:11:08,284 Speaker 1: the Special Investigations which was prosecuting the remaining Nazi war criminals, 200 00:11:08,604 --> 00:11:12,684 Speaker 1: and they had a number of huge cases where these 201 00:11:13,164 --> 00:11:17,604 Speaker 1: notorious Nazis still got a trial, right, they went through 202 00:11:17,644 --> 00:11:20,764 Speaker 1: the entire trial process in the United States, and in 203 00:11:20,804 --> 00:11:24,124 Speaker 1: some cases, like the Demyano case, which was incredibly famous 204 00:11:24,124 --> 00:11:28,724 Speaker 1: case multiple decades ago, these were people who weren't notorious 205 00:11:28,724 --> 00:11:31,724 Speaker 1: guards who killed people, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. 206 00:11:32,244 --> 00:11:35,084 Speaker 1: Due process, Right, you don't like it. You know they're guilty, 207 00:11:35,484 --> 00:11:39,764 Speaker 1: and yet they still have that entire process appeals Like 208 00:11:39,844 --> 00:11:44,004 Speaker 1: there's you go through the entire thing and in this 209 00:11:44,044 --> 00:11:47,724 Speaker 1: particular case, none of it right zero. That should be 210 00:11:47,764 --> 00:11:52,364 Speaker 1: actually scary to everyone. But as you point out strategically, 211 00:11:52,724 --> 00:11:55,364 Speaker 1: why does jd vance, Why is he so thrilled that 212 00:11:55,404 --> 00:11:59,124 Speaker 1: this is kind of the thing that people are talking about, 213 00:11:59,324 --> 00:12:03,364 Speaker 1: because most people aren't talking about like the the legal 214 00:12:03,404 --> 00:12:05,324 Speaker 1: part of it, the due process part of it. That's 215 00:12:05,364 --> 00:12:09,084 Speaker 1: actually you know, democracy is at stake in some senses. 216 00:12:09,924 --> 00:12:12,684 Speaker 1: They're talking about oh, you know, innocent man, et cetera, 217 00:12:12,684 --> 00:12:14,404 Speaker 1: et cetera, and so many people are like, oh, we 218 00:12:14,444 --> 00:12:17,124 Speaker 1: don't want gang members here. This is a talking point 219 00:12:17,164 --> 00:12:20,884 Speaker 1: where Trump actually resonates where like we don't want immigrants, 220 00:12:20,884 --> 00:12:23,604 Speaker 1: we don't want this, we don't want that. So they're 221 00:12:23,644 --> 00:12:27,084 Speaker 1: trying to conflate the two stories and use this as 222 00:12:27,084 --> 00:12:29,324 Speaker 1: a see, we're making the country safer and we're making 223 00:12:29,364 --> 00:12:33,844 Speaker 1: you safer. And so they're trying to take this something 224 00:12:34,004 --> 00:12:37,764 Speaker 1: very bad and actually conflate it with something that people 225 00:12:37,844 --> 00:12:38,884 Speaker 1: are more sympathetic with. 226 00:12:40,164 --> 00:12:44,524 Speaker 2: The JD Evans, I mean, he is an old school blogger. 227 00:12:44,644 --> 00:12:48,084 Speaker 2: He'll argue with people on Twitter, not from the official 228 00:12:48,164 --> 00:12:51,724 Speaker 2: VP account, but from the JD Events account, which follows 229 00:12:51,764 --> 00:12:57,644 Speaker 2: me emmutually. His best version of the argument is that, look, 230 00:12:58,204 --> 00:13:01,084 Speaker 2: you elected me and Donald Trump to crack down on 231 00:13:01,124 --> 00:13:05,884 Speaker 2: illegal immigration, right, and Biden and Obama had put way 232 00:13:05,924 --> 00:13:09,164 Speaker 2: too much of a finger on the scale where it's 233 00:13:09,564 --> 00:13:12,964 Speaker 2: very hard to remove people, and we have to shift 234 00:13:12,964 --> 00:13:16,524 Speaker 2: that paradigm. And if there are a few mistakes, may well, 235 00:13:16,964 --> 00:13:20,484 Speaker 2: tough shit. These people are in the country illegally. And 236 00:13:20,564 --> 00:13:23,044 Speaker 2: this guy, a particular guy, is not a not a 237 00:13:23,044 --> 00:13:23,524 Speaker 2: good guy. 238 00:13:23,404 --> 00:13:25,044 Speaker 3: Anyway, He's a gang member, right like. 239 00:13:26,924 --> 00:13:29,804 Speaker 2: You know that gets undermined when Stephen Miller Lader says, oh, 240 00:13:29,844 --> 00:13:32,524 Speaker 2: we meant to deport him, right, that gets undermine when 241 00:13:32,564 --> 00:13:34,164 Speaker 2: Trump says what about US citizens? 242 00:13:34,244 --> 00:13:36,564 Speaker 3: Right? You know they're bad guys. Want to send them 243 00:13:36,604 --> 00:13:37,284 Speaker 3: down there too. 244 00:13:37,444 --> 00:13:43,004 Speaker 2: But like, you know, but that argument is like understandable, 245 00:13:43,684 --> 00:13:50,644 Speaker 2: I think, and relatable to some degree. And and you know, 246 00:13:51,004 --> 00:13:56,484 Speaker 2: immigration is Trump's least bad issue in the polls. 247 00:13:57,764 --> 00:14:00,564 Speaker 3: I would debate in some sense both kind of like. 248 00:14:00,604 --> 00:14:07,844 Speaker 2: The substance and the strategy of like picking this case. 249 00:14:07,924 --> 00:14:11,684 Speaker 3: So, first of all, this is not the worst thing 250 00:14:11,684 --> 00:14:12,324 Speaker 3: Trump has done. 251 00:14:12,404 --> 00:14:14,764 Speaker 2: The worst thing it was January sixth, from a standpoint 252 00:14:14,804 --> 00:14:18,124 Speaker 2: of undermining legal norms or some of the different firings 253 00:14:18,124 --> 00:14:21,004 Speaker 2: that he's done, you know, even in this term. 254 00:14:21,044 --> 00:14:22,484 Speaker 3: I mean, you know, some people would say that. 255 00:14:22,524 --> 00:14:22,684 Speaker 1: Like. 256 00:14:24,444 --> 00:14:30,084 Speaker 2: What he's done with TikTok, where Congress basically passed a 257 00:14:30,164 --> 00:14:32,164 Speaker 2: law to say we're outlawed tektuck in the US, and 258 00:14:32,244 --> 00:14:35,404 Speaker 2: the administration is like filibustering that and delaying that, and 259 00:14:35,404 --> 00:14:40,404 Speaker 2: that's being litigated. Like that's directly over overturning you know, 260 00:14:40,444 --> 00:14:41,524 Speaker 2: Congress's vote. 261 00:14:41,564 --> 00:14:43,844 Speaker 3: I think, you know, arguably that's bad. 262 00:14:43,884 --> 00:14:48,204 Speaker 2: I mean, there are a whole array of deportation cases. 263 00:14:48,204 --> 00:14:50,884 Speaker 2: The Supreme Court issued a mid dank order saying stop 264 00:14:51,164 --> 00:14:53,924 Speaker 2: doing this. Right, it is a genuinely difficult point of 265 00:14:54,044 --> 00:14:58,084 Speaker 2: law to compel the United States administration to do something 266 00:14:58,124 --> 00:15:00,604 Speaker 2: in a foreign country, and Trump would make himself much 267 00:15:00,604 --> 00:15:04,484 Speaker 2: more sympathetic if he like gave a shit or pretended 268 00:15:04,484 --> 00:15:06,524 Speaker 2: to even pretended to pretend to give a shit, right, 269 00:15:06,604 --> 00:15:09,564 Speaker 2: But like it is like a genuinely ambiguous thing, and 270 00:15:09,604 --> 00:15:13,164 Speaker 2: I don't I mean, look, I don't think it absolutes, right. 271 00:15:13,204 --> 00:15:17,164 Speaker 2: I mean I think you know, if zero was everything 272 00:15:17,244 --> 00:15:19,684 Speaker 2: is great, and one hundred is a constitutional crisis, right, 273 00:15:21,644 --> 00:15:24,444 Speaker 2: you know this six is from sixty two to sixty. 274 00:15:24,164 --> 00:15:26,124 Speaker 3: Six or something like or something. 275 00:15:26,164 --> 00:15:28,684 Speaker 2: But you know what I mean, And you kind of 276 00:15:28,684 --> 00:15:31,644 Speaker 2: get in this kind of brinksmanship situation that does get 277 00:15:31,684 --> 00:15:35,724 Speaker 2: into game theory and things like that, right. And part 278 00:15:35,724 --> 00:15:38,644 Speaker 2: of the problem with brinksmanship is that the party who's 279 00:15:38,644 --> 00:15:42,364 Speaker 2: behaving inappropriately or trying to be more aggressive, right, can say, Okay, 280 00:15:42,404 --> 00:15:46,204 Speaker 2: well we're in it fourtify this territory a little bit 281 00:15:46,244 --> 00:15:49,284 Speaker 2: further across this line, right, But you're not going to 282 00:15:49,284 --> 00:15:50,484 Speaker 2: mix such a big deal over this. 283 00:15:50,484 --> 00:15:52,244 Speaker 3: This isn't a battle worth picking. 284 00:15:52,244 --> 00:15:54,964 Speaker 2: And then that kind of like cycles back again and 285 00:15:55,004 --> 00:15:55,724 Speaker 2: again and again. 286 00:15:55,964 --> 00:15:56,484 Speaker 3: By the way, I. 287 00:15:56,764 --> 00:15:59,644 Speaker 2: Think liberals are pretty I think the Supreme Court is 288 00:15:59,684 --> 00:16:04,924 Speaker 2: going to wind up being pretty unfriendly to Trump, right, 289 00:16:04,924 --> 00:16:07,204 Speaker 2: And I think it's very strategic. Roberts in particular is 290 00:16:07,284 --> 00:16:10,164 Speaker 2: quite strategic, and it's gonna say, Okay, we know we 291 00:16:10,204 --> 00:16:11,684 Speaker 2: have to be careful because we don't want to get 292 00:16:11,724 --> 00:16:14,564 Speaker 2: in a position where he's openly defying us, right, but 293 00:16:14,604 --> 00:16:18,124 Speaker 2: we can make his life hard in various ways, and 294 00:16:18,164 --> 00:16:22,764 Speaker 2: we see ourselves like maybe the only bulwark and st 295 00:16:22,804 --> 00:16:25,604 Speaker 2: I mean, it's ironic that, like you know, and Alito 296 00:16:25,644 --> 00:16:28,564 Speaker 2: and Thomas are too far to the right on many issues. 297 00:16:28,684 --> 00:16:31,644 Speaker 3: Right, Roberts, to facto is a centrist right. 298 00:16:31,684 --> 00:16:35,804 Speaker 2: So ironically, you know, the left is relying on three 299 00:16:35,924 --> 00:16:40,804 Speaker 2: on the three Trump avoided judges, right, Kavanaugh, Barrett, and Gorsich, 300 00:16:41,044 --> 00:16:43,164 Speaker 2: who you know have a little using differences from issue 301 00:16:43,164 --> 00:16:48,524 Speaker 2: to issue. Right, but those three are you know, kind 302 00:16:48,564 --> 00:16:50,604 Speaker 2: of you know, democracy's best. 303 00:16:51,844 --> 00:16:53,644 Speaker 3: Defense until until the midterms at. 304 00:16:53,644 --> 00:16:56,524 Speaker 2: Least, and excluding state government. But you know, but like 305 00:16:56,564 --> 00:16:58,804 Speaker 2: that there is a deep irony there. 306 00:16:58,924 --> 00:17:01,484 Speaker 1: I think, yeah, no, there's an irony on the fact 307 00:17:01,564 --> 00:17:05,564 Speaker 1: that there are best defense actually puts my constitutional crisis 308 00:17:05,644 --> 00:17:08,884 Speaker 1: meter a little bit higher than yours. State. I think 309 00:17:08,924 --> 00:17:12,804 Speaker 1: we're a little above sixty six percent. But but I 310 00:17:12,884 --> 00:17:16,324 Speaker 1: think I think that there are two things here. One 311 00:17:16,564 --> 00:17:19,644 Speaker 1: this is just one, and you kind of hinted at 312 00:17:19,684 --> 00:17:22,364 Speaker 1: this of a litany of legal issues that are happening 313 00:17:22,444 --> 00:17:25,364 Speaker 1: right now. Right there are challenges all over the country. 314 00:17:25,684 --> 00:17:29,324 Speaker 1: But I think that there will probably come a moment 315 00:17:30,204 --> 00:17:34,964 Speaker 1: where there is kind of a black and white confrontation, 316 00:17:35,364 --> 00:17:37,884 Speaker 1: right because right now there are kind of degrees you 317 00:17:37,924 --> 00:17:40,644 Speaker 1: can say, well like he is he openly defying it. 318 00:17:40,804 --> 00:17:42,724 Speaker 1: But I think there will come a point where there 319 00:17:42,764 --> 00:17:45,044 Speaker 1: will be like a Okay, you have to do this, 320 00:17:45,524 --> 00:17:49,964 Speaker 1: or or where in a constitutional crisis. I think that 321 00:17:50,044 --> 00:17:54,564 Speaker 1: breaking point probably probably will come, and I'm interested to 322 00:17:54,604 --> 00:17:57,164 Speaker 1: see how the Trump administration will respond to that, because 323 00:17:57,204 --> 00:18:00,684 Speaker 1: right now they've been very defiant, and as you said, 324 00:18:00,684 --> 00:18:02,484 Speaker 1: it would be much more sympathetic if they at least 325 00:18:02,484 --> 00:18:04,044 Speaker 1: made an effort and was like, oh, you know, we're 326 00:18:04,044 --> 00:18:06,484 Speaker 1: really trying to get him back, and instead Trump's like, 327 00:18:06,524 --> 00:18:08,684 Speaker 1: fuck you, like we don't want to get him back, 328 00:18:08,724 --> 00:18:11,004 Speaker 1: We're not going to do that, and then they just 329 00:18:11,164 --> 00:18:13,484 Speaker 1: lie also about what the Supreme Court said, Oh you 330 00:18:13,524 --> 00:18:15,084 Speaker 1: didn't you know, you didn't tell us to do this. 331 00:18:15,404 --> 00:18:18,084 Speaker 1: That's why I said, right now we have like these ambiguities. 332 00:18:18,124 --> 00:18:19,804 Speaker 1: There will come a point where I think there will 333 00:18:19,844 --> 00:18:22,844 Speaker 1: be an an ambiguous moment where where there's going to 334 00:18:22,844 --> 00:18:23,924 Speaker 1: be a decision point. 335 00:18:27,844 --> 00:18:29,764 Speaker 3: And will be right back after this break. 336 00:18:36,964 --> 00:18:38,844 Speaker 1: I think that the other issue here, and this is 337 00:18:38,884 --> 00:18:41,284 Speaker 1: something that we've been hinting at and that I think 338 00:18:41,404 --> 00:18:46,124 Speaker 1: you've written about, Nate, is that so immigration, right? Why 339 00:18:46,244 --> 00:18:48,804 Speaker 1: is it a good issue for Trump? Because you can 340 00:18:48,844 --> 00:18:51,004 Speaker 1: make it emotional. You can make it visceral, like people 341 00:18:51,084 --> 00:18:53,204 Speaker 1: can be like, oh, you know, they're taking my jobs, 342 00:18:53,244 --> 00:18:56,444 Speaker 1: they're making me you know, whether or not it's true, right, 343 00:18:56,484 --> 00:18:58,764 Speaker 1: whether or not these things are true. You can make 344 00:18:58,804 --> 00:19:02,284 Speaker 1: this emotional appeal that people can like immediately see right, 345 00:19:02,364 --> 00:19:07,444 Speaker 1: it's something that they can respond to. Constitutional crisis, democracy 346 00:19:07,564 --> 00:19:11,204 Speaker 1: is at stake, is something that's much more intellectual, much 347 00:19:11,324 --> 00:19:14,844 Speaker 1: kind of broader, and in the long run, obviously this 348 00:19:15,004 --> 00:19:17,404 Speaker 1: is hugely important. This is kind of what our country 349 00:19:17,924 --> 00:19:21,244 Speaker 1: is founded on. But it's not if Democrats are going 350 00:19:21,284 --> 00:19:23,084 Speaker 1: to say, Okay, this is an issue that we can 351 00:19:23,124 --> 00:19:27,284 Speaker 1: focus on, that's probably not it if you want to 352 00:19:27,364 --> 00:19:30,524 Speaker 1: win votes, because it's much easier to say yeah, but 353 00:19:30,604 --> 00:19:34,684 Speaker 1: immigrants right, as opposed to oh, constitutional crisis, it's working 354 00:19:34,724 --> 00:19:37,604 Speaker 1: its way through the courts. It's a much more difficult 355 00:19:38,044 --> 00:19:40,684 Speaker 1: You can't make an emotional appeal here you can't be 356 00:19:40,804 --> 00:19:43,404 Speaker 1: and people will always say, oh, well, it doesn't affect me, 357 00:19:43,844 --> 00:19:48,204 Speaker 1: right until it does, they'll say it doesn't. And so 358 00:19:48,564 --> 00:19:51,684 Speaker 1: in some ways, like we can all agree that this 359 00:19:51,764 --> 00:19:53,884 Speaker 1: is important, and this is an important battle that needs 360 00:19:53,884 --> 00:19:57,524 Speaker 1: to be fought, but is this the one issue that 361 00:19:57,564 --> 00:20:00,404 Speaker 1: people should be focusing on? And you made the argument 362 00:20:00,444 --> 00:20:02,204 Speaker 1: and I actually agree with this, and we made this 363 00:20:02,284 --> 00:20:04,724 Speaker 1: argument on the show that there are things that people 364 00:20:04,804 --> 00:20:07,164 Speaker 1: do agree on that can win the election, that can 365 00:20:07,204 --> 00:20:10,724 Speaker 1: help you with everything, like the constitutional crisis says like tariffs. 366 00:20:10,884 --> 00:20:14,844 Speaker 1: I mean, Nate, why didn't the United States decide to 367 00:20:14,884 --> 00:20:17,444 Speaker 1: go to war with England before it was the United States, 368 00:20:17,484 --> 00:20:19,644 Speaker 1: when it was still a colony? Do you remember remember 369 00:20:19,724 --> 00:20:20,764 Speaker 1: the Boston Tea Party? 370 00:20:20,764 --> 00:20:21,844 Speaker 3: What was that all about? 371 00:20:22,364 --> 00:20:26,364 Speaker 1: Oh? Right, tariffs on tea. We went to war with 372 00:20:26,524 --> 00:20:30,244 Speaker 1: England over tariffs. That's how much we wanted to have 373 00:20:30,364 --> 00:20:34,564 Speaker 1: us say, no taxation without representation. Right. So tariffs are 374 00:20:34,604 --> 00:20:37,324 Speaker 1: an issue that has been resonant with the United States 375 00:20:37,444 --> 00:20:41,644 Speaker 1: for centuries and continues to be so, so we can 376 00:20:41,804 --> 00:20:43,884 Speaker 1: you know, on a broad level, there are lots of 377 00:20:43,924 --> 00:20:48,084 Speaker 1: people who can and should be fighting these battles, these 378 00:20:48,124 --> 00:20:51,484 Speaker 1: constitutional battles do process. I'm petrified. You know, I'm a 379 00:20:51,564 --> 00:20:55,004 Speaker 1: US citizen, but I'm a naturalized citizen, right, Like what 380 00:20:55,124 --> 00:20:58,564 Speaker 1: happens if he says, well, people who aren't naturalized citizens, Like, 381 00:20:58,604 --> 00:21:01,884 Speaker 1: we can deport those too. People even if you were 382 00:21:02,044 --> 00:21:05,764 Speaker 1: a natural born citizen but your parents were illegal, you know, 383 00:21:07,284 --> 00:21:10,284 Speaker 1: you can be deported too. And that is actually something 384 00:21:10,324 --> 00:21:12,924 Speaker 1: that's being fought in the courts too. So there are 385 00:21:12,924 --> 00:21:16,404 Speaker 1: things that are incredibly important and incredibly scary. But then 386 00:21:16,724 --> 00:21:19,244 Speaker 1: there's also Okay, how do we win elections? Right? How 387 00:21:19,244 --> 00:21:21,644 Speaker 1: do we get votes? How do we get people to 388 00:21:21,764 --> 00:21:25,884 Speaker 1: actually mobilize? And there are things like tariffs that have 389 00:21:26,044 --> 00:21:31,364 Speaker 1: worked for centuries and things that people can feel because 390 00:21:31,364 --> 00:21:34,764 Speaker 1: a tariff you can feel it viscerally. Bottom line, it hurts. 391 00:21:34,844 --> 00:21:36,404 Speaker 1: It hits, It affects a. 392 00:21:36,404 --> 00:21:38,044 Speaker 3: Lot of people's stock propolebly is taken to hit. 393 00:21:38,044 --> 00:21:41,444 Speaker 2: But also like the University of Mission consumer sentiment number 394 00:21:41,564 --> 00:21:45,324 Speaker 2: just had it's like second worst decline or print since 395 00:21:45,404 --> 00:21:48,844 Speaker 2: like the history of the index, right, and inflation expectations 396 00:21:48,924 --> 00:21:51,244 Speaker 2: are about as high as they ever been now. 397 00:21:51,284 --> 00:21:52,644 Speaker 3: And the short way once some people do is they 398 00:21:52,684 --> 00:21:54,324 Speaker 3: accelerate purchases. 399 00:21:54,404 --> 00:21:56,604 Speaker 2: Right, So I want to buy this card now before 400 00:21:57,764 --> 00:22:01,084 Speaker 2: tariffs go into effect, right to some acceleration of that cycle. 401 00:22:01,084 --> 00:22:03,404 Speaker 3: But you already see different. 402 00:22:04,724 --> 00:22:08,844 Speaker 2: Local manufacturers surveys at the Federal Reserve index. People are 403 00:22:08,884 --> 00:22:11,924 Speaker 2: already kind of back planning and hiring. If you go 404 00:22:11,964 --> 00:22:15,084 Speaker 2: to polymarket check it sult forth. There's more likely than 405 00:22:15,124 --> 00:22:16,684 Speaker 2: not the US will hit a recession this year. I 406 00:22:16,724 --> 00:22:19,764 Speaker 2: think if we don't hit a recession, we'll probably scrape 407 00:22:19,884 --> 00:22:22,164 Speaker 2: just above a recession with zero point five percent GDP 408 00:22:22,324 --> 00:22:28,204 Speaker 2: growth and stagnant maybe some job losses, some stagflation most likely. Right, 409 00:22:29,244 --> 00:22:31,124 Speaker 2: And Trump's priple ratings in the economy are like now 410 00:22:31,124 --> 00:22:33,404 Speaker 2: his worst numbers except maybe on healthcare. I think his 411 00:22:33,444 --> 00:22:35,724 Speaker 2: numbers are pretty bad. Right, So it's like it's and 412 00:22:35,764 --> 00:22:38,484 Speaker 2: by the way, we at silver bills and track Trump's 413 00:22:38,484 --> 00:22:41,124 Speaker 2: approval rating. It was declining to decline more sharply after 414 00:22:41,204 --> 00:22:44,604 Speaker 2: the Liberation Day terraces, and then when the topic turns 415 00:22:44,604 --> 00:22:48,164 Speaker 2: to immigration, democracy, due process, then they begin. 416 00:22:47,964 --> 00:22:51,964 Speaker 3: To level out again, because it is abstract. 417 00:22:51,484 --> 00:22:53,764 Speaker 2: Unless you are you know, I mean, you know, a 418 00:22:53,764 --> 00:22:57,284 Speaker 2: student A four and visa. There are other cases like this, right, 419 00:22:58,644 --> 00:23:00,964 Speaker 2: and also like I mean, like. 420 00:23:02,924 --> 00:23:04,524 Speaker 3: You know of the many. 421 00:23:05,844 --> 00:23:08,524 Speaker 2: Test cases that you could pick on immigration and due process. 422 00:23:08,564 --> 00:23:14,044 Speaker 2: I'm not sure or why, like Democrats are choosing this 423 00:23:14,124 --> 00:23:17,084 Speaker 2: guy who was the propriers I have everge accorded too. 424 00:23:17,124 --> 00:23:18,004 Speaker 3: Judges was that he was. 425 00:23:17,924 --> 00:23:21,604 Speaker 2: More likely not to be a gang member, right, And 426 00:23:21,684 --> 00:23:24,124 Speaker 2: I just kind of sense whereas like on I'll put 427 00:23:24,164 --> 00:23:27,004 Speaker 2: it like this, right on terroriffs, I was down in 428 00:23:27,004 --> 00:23:30,764 Speaker 2: Miami like kind of briefly for like poker tournament a 429 00:23:30,764 --> 00:23:32,324 Speaker 2: couple weeks ago, right, and like that's the kind of 430 00:23:32,364 --> 00:23:35,644 Speaker 2: thing you can like, Man, these terriffs suck, right and 431 00:23:35,724 --> 00:23:39,244 Speaker 2: bring it up like in a poker table where you 432 00:23:40,524 --> 00:23:44,124 Speaker 2: don't know what people's politics are, and that's like safe 433 00:23:44,404 --> 00:23:47,324 Speaker 2: territory to do that, right, because if you look, you know, 434 00:23:47,524 --> 00:23:51,644 Speaker 2: the poll's basically eighty twenty against that. And people I 435 00:23:51,764 --> 00:23:54,204 Speaker 2: know that were like, well, you know, some of the 436 00:23:54,244 --> 00:23:57,764 Speaker 2: stuff's Trump's sewing. Not I'm a liberal, but right, they 437 00:23:57,884 --> 00:23:59,524 Speaker 2: were like, Okay, these terrifts are terrible. Why is he 438 00:23:59,524 --> 00:24:01,284 Speaker 2: taking the economy? Why is he taking the sococker market? 439 00:24:01,644 --> 00:24:03,244 Speaker 2: If I run a small business, it's fucking up the 440 00:24:03,284 --> 00:24:04,084 Speaker 2: small business, right. 441 00:24:04,124 --> 00:24:05,244 Speaker 3: And then and. 442 00:24:05,164 --> 00:24:10,284 Speaker 2: Then immigration, it's kind of back to the partisan spin wars, 443 00:24:10,284 --> 00:24:12,484 Speaker 2: at least with this particular case. 444 00:24:12,604 --> 00:24:17,044 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, absolutely, And I think that a lot right now, 445 00:24:17,084 --> 00:24:19,684 Speaker 1: A lot of the constitutional crisis stuff and the democracy 446 00:24:19,724 --> 00:24:24,524 Speaker 1: stuff is unfortunately centered around immigration. Right So those are 447 00:24:24,564 --> 00:24:28,084 Speaker 1: the two, Like, it's the counterpoint. So you can't you 448 00:24:28,124 --> 00:24:31,884 Speaker 1: can't go into one without the other. There isn't kind 449 00:24:31,924 --> 00:24:36,844 Speaker 1: of this visceral like oh Man tariffs, right like, or 450 00:24:37,124 --> 00:24:41,244 Speaker 1: inflation like how much eggs cost? Oh Man, enger crisis 451 00:24:41,444 --> 00:24:45,244 Speaker 1: right Like. There isn't that kind of reaction that you 452 00:24:45,284 --> 00:24:48,804 Speaker 1: can say right now to kind of the democratic crisis. 453 00:24:49,084 --> 00:24:51,724 Speaker 1: And because if you start talking about the court cases, 454 00:24:52,244 --> 00:24:54,204 Speaker 1: you're going to have to talk about, oh, well, he's 455 00:24:54,244 --> 00:24:56,804 Speaker 1: a gang member. And even if we don't know this, like, 456 00:24:57,004 --> 00:24:59,444 Speaker 1: this is going to come up and people are going 457 00:24:59,484 --> 00:25:03,124 Speaker 1: to respond negatively and no one who is pro Trump 458 00:25:03,164 --> 00:25:05,364 Speaker 1: is going to be convinced by this, which I think 459 00:25:05,444 --> 00:25:07,084 Speaker 1: is the other part of this, right Like, what is 460 00:25:07,124 --> 00:25:12,764 Speaker 1: the end goal? Is the and goal to try to 461 00:25:12,804 --> 00:25:18,084 Speaker 1: score a rhetorical victory, you know and say look, you 462 00:25:18,124 --> 00:25:20,844 Speaker 1: know we were right about this, Or is the end 463 00:25:20,884 --> 00:25:23,164 Speaker 1: goal to win the twenty twenty six mid terms, to 464 00:25:23,244 --> 00:25:26,924 Speaker 1: win in twenty twenty eight, right as the democrat And 465 00:25:26,964 --> 00:25:30,044 Speaker 1: again we're talking as a democratic party, You should really 466 00:25:30,084 --> 00:25:33,764 Speaker 1: prioritize the shit that brings people together. You're absolutely right, Nate. 467 00:25:33,844 --> 00:25:36,964 Speaker 1: Like the poker community, lots of Republicans there, right, lots 468 00:25:37,004 --> 00:25:39,684 Speaker 1: of Trump supporters, lots of things I don't want to 469 00:25:39,684 --> 00:25:42,284 Speaker 1: bring up at the poker table. You know, I've been 470 00:25:42,444 --> 00:25:44,924 Speaker 1: accused of being a fucking liptard to my face at 471 00:25:45,004 --> 00:25:50,604 Speaker 1: the poker table. So you know that happens, and you 472 00:25:50,724 --> 00:25:54,524 Speaker 1: just you just kind of want to try to keep 473 00:25:54,564 --> 00:25:58,204 Speaker 1: it kind of more even keeled. But tariffs and the 474 00:25:58,244 --> 00:26:03,124 Speaker 1: economic policy is something that people can really come together 475 00:26:03,204 --> 00:26:05,844 Speaker 1: on now, as you say, they can and should be 476 00:26:05,884 --> 00:26:09,924 Speaker 1: fighting these battles elsewhere, and there are other institution tutions 477 00:26:10,204 --> 00:26:13,244 Speaker 1: that can be fighting other battles because we know we 478 00:26:13,324 --> 00:26:16,644 Speaker 1: have these we have immigration, we have tariffs, but we 479 00:26:16,684 --> 00:26:18,644 Speaker 1: also have other things that are happening that we've also 480 00:26:18,684 --> 00:26:21,924 Speaker 1: talked about on the show. You know, the huge funding cuts, right, 481 00:26:22,324 --> 00:26:25,364 Speaker 1: the kind of death of research in the United States. 482 00:26:26,124 --> 00:26:30,044 Speaker 1: And now you have Harvard University who has been threatened 483 00:26:30,124 --> 00:26:32,604 Speaker 1: with well, first of all, two point two billion dollars 484 00:26:32,604 --> 00:26:35,844 Speaker 1: in funding was frozen to them after they said no, 485 00:26:35,884 --> 00:26:41,004 Speaker 1: we will not be will not be following Trump's demands Columbia. 486 00:26:41,044 --> 00:26:42,884 Speaker 1: By the way, It's funding has never been returned to it. 487 00:26:42,884 --> 00:26:46,444 Speaker 1: It's still frozen. Even though Trump got what he wanted 488 00:26:46,444 --> 00:26:49,524 Speaker 1: at Columbia and they acquiesced to everything. But this week 489 00:26:49,604 --> 00:26:53,164 Speaker 1: Harvard said, we're actually even going to file a lawsuit 490 00:26:53,204 --> 00:26:55,364 Speaker 1: because it's also been threatened with an end to its 491 00:26:55,484 --> 00:26:59,164 Speaker 1: tax exempt status. And what they're trying to say is, hey, 492 00:26:59,204 --> 00:27:01,364 Speaker 1: you are not allowed to freeze our funds. This goes 493 00:27:01,404 --> 00:27:03,484 Speaker 1: back to do process. By the way, there's a process 494 00:27:03,524 --> 00:27:06,084 Speaker 1: to doing it right. There's you actually have to go 495 00:27:06,204 --> 00:27:09,404 Speaker 1: through a process to prove that what you're saying is true. 496 00:27:09,964 --> 00:27:13,204 Speaker 1: And only then after the court rules, can you freeze 497 00:27:13,204 --> 00:27:15,764 Speaker 1: the funds. You can't just preemptively freeze all of them, 498 00:27:15,964 --> 00:27:19,204 Speaker 1: which is exactly what Trump has done. And so Harvard 499 00:27:19,324 --> 00:27:22,804 Speaker 1: is actually now trying to fight back in the court system. 500 00:27:23,364 --> 00:27:26,044 Speaker 1: We know, we've talked about this before. Harvard is not 501 00:27:26,124 --> 00:27:30,564 Speaker 1: popular among the everyman, and so Harvard is a good 502 00:27:30,604 --> 00:27:35,724 Speaker 1: target for Trump. But Harvard's the single richest private university 503 00:27:35,764 --> 00:27:38,444 Speaker 1: in the world, I'm pretty sure, certainly in the United States, 504 00:27:38,484 --> 00:27:41,124 Speaker 1: I think in the world. Please correct me if I'm wrong, 505 00:27:41,364 --> 00:27:43,844 Speaker 1: But they actually have, you know, the money to fight 506 00:27:43,924 --> 00:27:47,244 Speaker 1: Trump legally, which a lot of private institutions don't, and 507 00:27:47,324 --> 00:27:52,484 Speaker 1: so we have other actors who can very strategically try 508 00:27:52,484 --> 00:27:55,204 Speaker 1: to bring this to the courts to try to get 509 00:27:55,244 --> 00:27:57,404 Speaker 1: at some of the extra legal things that Trump is 510 00:27:57,764 --> 00:27:59,724 Speaker 1: doing and try to get a due process that way. 511 00:28:00,564 --> 00:28:02,724 Speaker 1: And that is also something that you know, in the 512 00:28:02,804 --> 00:28:05,804 Speaker 1: long term is incredibly harmful to the US right the 513 00:28:06,244 --> 00:28:09,404 Speaker 1: cuts to the NIH, the freezing funds, all of these things, 514 00:28:10,004 --> 00:28:14,044 Speaker 1: it's really bad. But it's also very hard for every 515 00:28:14,124 --> 00:28:16,964 Speaker 1: man to care about that and say, well, I don't care, 516 00:28:17,044 --> 00:28:19,044 Speaker 1: like I don't work for the NIH. Well, you do 517 00:28:19,124 --> 00:28:21,284 Speaker 1: care if you're in a trial, clinical trial that has 518 00:28:21,324 --> 00:28:24,564 Speaker 1: been that has been suddenly halted. These have happened in 519 00:28:24,604 --> 00:28:28,964 Speaker 1: the United States, but if you're not someone who's directly affected, 520 00:28:29,044 --> 00:28:32,284 Speaker 1: it can be harder, once again to kind of viscerally 521 00:28:32,324 --> 00:28:34,604 Speaker 1: feel it. But we do need people fighting these battles 522 00:28:34,644 --> 00:28:38,724 Speaker 1: and making sure that you know that it remains a priority. 523 00:28:39,684 --> 00:28:42,444 Speaker 2: The King Abdullah University of Science Technology in Saudi Arabia 524 00:28:42,444 --> 00:28:45,204 Speaker 2: has an adabtment of twenty billion, still no match though 525 00:28:45,204 --> 00:28:46,964 Speaker 2: for Harvard, So I believe it is like there rich 526 00:28:47,004 --> 00:28:48,604 Speaker 2: is university in the world. 527 00:28:48,764 --> 00:28:50,764 Speaker 3: By the way, to Harvard. 528 00:28:51,004 --> 00:28:55,284 Speaker 2: Have you ever sent an email, Maria and unintentionally copied 529 00:28:55,284 --> 00:28:57,524 Speaker 2: someone who is not supposed to receive the email? 530 00:28:58,844 --> 00:29:03,484 Speaker 1: Uh? Yeah, I have. I've definitely copied someone unintentionally because 531 00:29:03,524 --> 00:29:07,324 Speaker 1: I've meant to copy someone else, right, Like the I 532 00:29:07,444 --> 00:29:11,724 Speaker 1: use Gmail Gmail autofill and sometimes like I'll click on 533 00:29:11,764 --> 00:29:14,684 Speaker 1: the wrong one. I now use the undo like I 534 00:29:14,684 --> 00:29:17,204 Speaker 1: have the undue feature, which which I use liberally, but 535 00:29:17,244 --> 00:29:21,204 Speaker 1: sometimes you can't undo, like and I've definitely had an 536 00:29:21,204 --> 00:29:22,284 Speaker 1: oh shit moment. 537 00:29:22,204 --> 00:29:25,564 Speaker 2: When I work for Baseball Prospectus back in the day. 538 00:29:25,644 --> 00:29:29,484 Speaker 2: We were kind of frustrated with our book publisher, right, 539 00:29:31,524 --> 00:29:33,364 Speaker 2: and I think I said something like this is going 540 00:29:33,444 --> 00:29:35,644 Speaker 2: to be late, but they're not paying in US anyway, 541 00:29:35,804 --> 00:29:38,324 Speaker 2: so screw them, right, And they were copied on it. 542 00:29:38,364 --> 00:29:39,204 Speaker 3: But like, but. 543 00:29:39,244 --> 00:29:45,604 Speaker 2: Yeah, So apparently the demonstration was negotiating with Harvard, as 544 00:29:45,644 --> 00:29:47,444 Speaker 2: it's with a lot of universities, and Harvard had like 545 00:29:47,644 --> 00:29:52,484 Speaker 2: hired lawyers to preempt this and and but anyway, the 546 00:29:52,524 --> 00:29:55,324 Speaker 2: Trump administration apparently an error sent a list of demands 547 00:29:55,884 --> 00:29:56,444 Speaker 2: to Harvard. 548 00:29:56,924 --> 00:29:57,844 Speaker 3: And now they're saying, oh, you. 549 00:29:57,924 --> 00:30:00,444 Speaker 1: Believe this to night, do we believe that it was 550 00:30:00,484 --> 00:30:04,044 Speaker 1: an error to send that letter to Harvard. I actually 551 00:30:04,124 --> 00:30:07,324 Speaker 1: don't believe that. I think that this this is one 552 00:30:07,364 --> 00:30:10,164 Speaker 1: of the many. After the fact, Lie is like, oh yeah, 553 00:30:10,324 --> 00:30:11,324 Speaker 1: there's a pattern. 554 00:30:11,444 --> 00:30:12,484 Speaker 2: I mean, keep in mind that there are a lot 555 00:30:12,484 --> 00:30:13,964 Speaker 2: of new people and experienced people. 556 00:30:14,204 --> 00:30:15,884 Speaker 1: There is a lot of sloppiness. There is a lot 557 00:30:15,924 --> 00:30:18,964 Speaker 1: of sloppiness. Okay, you know what, that's the counterpoint. All 558 00:30:19,004 --> 00:30:21,884 Speaker 1: the people who knew what they were doing have been fired. Well, 559 00:30:22,324 --> 00:30:25,644 Speaker 1: all the budgets for everything have been completely slashed. There's 560 00:30:25,684 --> 00:30:29,684 Speaker 1: no more oversight, incompetent people are in every department. So yeah, okay, 561 00:30:29,844 --> 00:30:32,884 Speaker 1: that's the counterpoint that you're absolutely right. It might have 562 00:30:32,924 --> 00:30:34,364 Speaker 1: been an error. Please continue. 563 00:30:34,764 --> 00:30:38,604 Speaker 2: Yeah, but anyway, Harvard had been helpful that could negotiate this. 564 00:30:38,764 --> 00:30:40,564 Speaker 2: And then I don't know if you looked this. I mean, 565 00:30:40,644 --> 00:30:43,124 Speaker 2: you know you're our ivylea correspondent for you, so I'll 566 00:30:43,364 --> 00:30:43,804 Speaker 2: I'll let you. 567 00:30:43,724 --> 00:30:46,724 Speaker 1: Take the Yeah. No, I mean I saw, I saw 568 00:30:46,804 --> 00:30:50,484 Speaker 1: the list of demands. I saw before the news broke 569 00:30:50,564 --> 00:30:54,444 Speaker 1: that Harvard was suing. We got we being alumni, I'm 570 00:30:54,444 --> 00:30:57,964 Speaker 1: assuming Curtain students as well, got a letter from Alan Garber, 571 00:30:58,004 --> 00:31:00,844 Speaker 1: the president, kind of outlining that they were about to sue. 572 00:31:01,244 --> 00:31:03,084 Speaker 1: What was going to happen and why they were doing this. 573 00:31:04,244 --> 00:31:07,124 Speaker 1: But it was I mean, if it was sent and error, 574 00:31:07,124 --> 00:31:09,244 Speaker 1: it was not a draft, right Like, That's one of 575 00:31:10,124 --> 00:31:12,404 Speaker 1: you can always be like, oh, that was a draft, 576 00:31:12,604 --> 00:31:15,444 Speaker 1: Like sorry, and I've done that too, By the way, 577 00:31:15,724 --> 00:31:21,484 Speaker 1: I was horrified. Back when I was an undergrad. I 578 00:31:21,564 --> 00:31:23,564 Speaker 1: was working on kind of a term paper for one 579 00:31:23,604 --> 00:31:28,604 Speaker 1: of my classes, and I saved multiple drafts, you know, 580 00:31:28,604 --> 00:31:30,724 Speaker 1: and as I go, like, I will update the version. 581 00:31:31,164 --> 00:31:34,684 Speaker 1: And I had finished this and I, buy mistake, sent 582 00:31:35,284 --> 00:31:39,244 Speaker 1: the wrong one to my TA and it had like 583 00:31:40,324 --> 00:31:43,964 Speaker 1: placeholder paragraphs that had like three words that said what 584 00:31:44,044 --> 00:31:47,804 Speaker 1: I was going to put there, and instead of telling me, 585 00:31:47,884 --> 00:31:49,964 Speaker 1: he just grated it. And it was just it was 586 00:31:50,284 --> 00:31:52,244 Speaker 1: very clearly a draft. And I asked him, I was like, 587 00:31:52,244 --> 00:31:55,084 Speaker 1: why didn't you say something like I clearly sent you 588 00:31:55,124 --> 00:31:55,684 Speaker 1: a draft. 589 00:31:55,964 --> 00:31:58,204 Speaker 2: Hey, if the Trump administration is looking for new hirey, 590 00:31:58,244 --> 00:31:59,804 Speaker 2: I seem very qualified? 591 00:31:59,964 --> 00:32:01,724 Speaker 3: Can I seem very qualified? Yeah? 592 00:32:01,724 --> 00:32:04,804 Speaker 1: I'm very good at sending drafts. But this is just 593 00:32:04,844 --> 00:32:06,644 Speaker 1: to say that the letter that they sent to Harvard 594 00:32:06,844 --> 00:32:09,084 Speaker 1: with the demands was not a draft, right that was 595 00:32:09,164 --> 00:32:11,684 Speaker 1: it was like a it was a full like, it 596 00:32:11,764 --> 00:32:16,044 Speaker 1: was a completely there were no placeholders there, and so yes, 597 00:32:16,084 --> 00:32:17,844 Speaker 1: they might have sent it in air, but it was 598 00:32:17,964 --> 00:32:23,084 Speaker 1: clearly something that want and the demands were totally crazy. 599 00:32:23,764 --> 00:32:26,164 Speaker 1: They were crazy for Columbia too, And you know, you 600 00:32:26,204 --> 00:32:29,044 Speaker 1: know when I when we talked about Columbia, it looked 601 00:32:29,044 --> 00:32:31,404 Speaker 1: like Harvard was going to cave because it was before 602 00:32:31,444 --> 00:32:35,244 Speaker 1: this new letter came out, and I'd said that, you know, 603 00:32:35,244 --> 00:32:38,164 Speaker 1: I'm ashamed to be a graduate of Columbia, which I 604 00:32:38,204 --> 00:32:41,324 Speaker 1: still am, even more now than I was before. But 605 00:32:41,564 --> 00:32:44,644 Speaker 1: like I'm glad that Harvard has finally, you know, grown 606 00:32:44,684 --> 00:32:48,404 Speaker 1: some balls, and and I fully support that, but it 607 00:32:48,484 --> 00:32:51,364 Speaker 1: made it, this second letter made it much more clear 608 00:32:51,444 --> 00:32:54,564 Speaker 1: cut that they really could not accede to the demands 609 00:32:54,604 --> 00:32:59,604 Speaker 1: because they had oversight. They wanted basically oversight over hiring 610 00:32:59,724 --> 00:33:03,084 Speaker 1: over all foreign students, over the research that was being done, 611 00:33:03,124 --> 00:33:07,204 Speaker 1: over everything that would completely undermine the independence and the 612 00:33:07,244 --> 00:33:10,204 Speaker 1: academic integrity of the institution. And this is a fight 613 00:33:10,284 --> 00:33:13,804 Speaker 1: for the future because we want you know, there are 614 00:33:13,844 --> 00:33:15,844 Speaker 1: lots of and we've talked about this many times, there 615 00:33:15,844 --> 00:33:18,484 Speaker 1: are lots of issues with academia. Lots of reforms need 616 00:33:18,564 --> 00:33:24,364 Speaker 1: to be made, but academic inquiry and scientific inquiry and 617 00:33:24,484 --> 00:33:30,004 Speaker 1: all of these things are the reason that the United 618 00:33:30,004 --> 00:33:33,244 Speaker 1: States has the industry that we have, the innovation that 619 00:33:33,284 --> 00:33:35,804 Speaker 1: we have, all of the you know, all of the 620 00:33:35,804 --> 00:33:38,844 Speaker 1: good stuff, right, it comes from there as well. And 621 00:33:39,244 --> 00:33:43,204 Speaker 1: right now it's just everything is being completely slashed with 622 00:33:43,564 --> 00:33:48,204 Speaker 1: no I think there's no plan that is there's what's 623 00:33:48,244 --> 00:33:51,124 Speaker 1: the grand plan? Let's just destroy everything with a sledgehammer 624 00:33:51,164 --> 00:33:54,804 Speaker 1: and see what happens. 625 00:33:55,084 --> 00:33:58,044 Speaker 2: Should I try to steal man it, Maria, let me 626 00:33:58,044 --> 00:34:03,884 Speaker 2: steal man a version of risky business in ten years 627 00:34:05,124 --> 00:34:09,804 Speaker 2: where we feel like the US is doing relatively well, right, 628 00:34:12,324 --> 00:34:16,004 Speaker 2: the steelman is probably that, Look, you had a lot 629 00:34:16,044 --> 00:34:19,684 Speaker 2: of layers of fat and sediment that built up over 630 00:34:19,724 --> 00:34:23,364 Speaker 2: the course of the expansion of the bureaucratic state over 631 00:34:23,604 --> 00:34:25,964 Speaker 2: you know, three democratic presidencies or twelve it out of 632 00:34:26,004 --> 00:34:32,684 Speaker 2: sixteen years and whatever else, right, And yes, Trump and 633 00:34:32,724 --> 00:34:36,444 Speaker 2: Elon did kind of shock therapy. And what happened in 634 00:34:36,524 --> 00:34:38,604 Speaker 2: the end is that the court fought back and they 635 00:34:38,644 --> 00:34:41,684 Speaker 2: got about like one third of what they wanted. 636 00:34:41,724 --> 00:34:44,404 Speaker 3: And was it the ideal third? Maybe not. But then 637 00:34:44,444 --> 00:34:45,444 Speaker 3: Democrats won the mid. 638 00:34:45,444 --> 00:34:47,604 Speaker 2: Term, and they won in twenty twenty eight, and then 639 00:34:47,604 --> 00:34:50,884 Speaker 2: they restored some of it, and now and now things 640 00:34:50,924 --> 00:34:53,964 Speaker 2: are NORMALI ish, but we trimmed some of the fat 641 00:34:54,204 --> 00:34:56,204 Speaker 2: with some mistakes made along the way. Right, Like that 642 00:34:56,204 --> 00:34:59,484 Speaker 2: that to me is not crazy. It does depend on 643 00:34:59,564 --> 00:35:03,164 Speaker 2: the courts and eventually the Congress and the people like 644 00:35:03,164 --> 00:35:05,844 Speaker 2: like fighting back a little bit, right, But I mean 645 00:35:05,844 --> 00:35:09,884 Speaker 2: this is why companies do layoffs. Right, Sometimes you easier. 646 00:35:09,884 --> 00:35:12,684 Speaker 2: It's also easier by the way, from like a legal perspective, right, 647 00:35:12,684 --> 00:35:13,884 Speaker 2: but like sometimes just. 648 00:35:13,804 --> 00:35:14,924 Speaker 3: Getting rid of everybody is. 649 00:35:16,444 --> 00:35:21,724 Speaker 2: Actually more rational than making case by case decisions, because 650 00:35:21,724 --> 00:35:26,284 Speaker 2: you want to avoid special pleading, right, you want to 651 00:35:26,364 --> 00:35:31,004 Speaker 2: avoid the transaction costs, and because someone will be clawed 652 00:35:31,044 --> 00:35:35,124 Speaker 2: back anyways, you kind of like deliberately overshoot the target. 653 00:35:36,404 --> 00:35:38,164 Speaker 1: I just want to push back against one thing. I 654 00:35:38,164 --> 00:35:41,044 Speaker 1: think that that's plausible in some cases, but not in others. 655 00:35:41,364 --> 00:35:45,044 Speaker 1: And what we're specifically, like when we're specifically talking about 656 00:35:45,164 --> 00:35:48,604 Speaker 1: kind of the scientific funding, what's happening there, it's not 657 00:35:48,684 --> 00:35:51,964 Speaker 1: as easy to say, oh oops, two years later, we'll 658 00:35:52,004 --> 00:35:54,924 Speaker 1: restore it and it will go back because so many 659 00:35:54,964 --> 00:35:57,244 Speaker 1: things like you can't disrupt some of these trials, you 660 00:35:57,244 --> 00:36:00,444 Speaker 1: can't disrupt this research, and in the meantime, people are 661 00:36:00,484 --> 00:36:02,604 Speaker 1: going to go elsewhere, right, So that might be a 662 00:36:02,644 --> 00:36:05,764 Speaker 1: permanent change that will make the US worse off for 663 00:36:06,364 --> 00:36:10,604 Speaker 1: decades that you can't just roll back because oops, I 664 00:36:10,604 --> 00:36:13,164 Speaker 1: guess we shouldn't have slashed, you know, eighty percent of 665 00:36:13,204 --> 00:36:13,804 Speaker 1: that budget. 666 00:36:14,524 --> 00:36:15,044 Speaker 3: No, and the. 667 00:36:15,004 --> 00:36:21,644 Speaker 2: Decline and again like the the ambitiousness of it and 668 00:36:21,844 --> 00:36:23,284 Speaker 2: the chao. I mean, the New York Times had like 669 00:36:23,364 --> 00:36:25,204 Speaker 2: one of these news analysis pieces a day that was like, 670 00:36:25,244 --> 00:36:26,484 Speaker 2: it seemed like Trump really had. 671 00:36:26,364 --> 00:36:29,204 Speaker 3: A shit together in. 672 00:36:28,124 --> 00:36:30,284 Speaker 2: The first two months, and now he doesn't. I don't 673 00:36:30,324 --> 00:36:33,244 Speaker 2: quite know that I buy that frame. I mean, I 674 00:36:33,244 --> 00:36:37,644 Speaker 2: think from the start you had a very ambitious administration 675 00:36:37,844 --> 00:36:41,244 Speaker 2: and a sloppy, chaotic one. I think those two ingredients 676 00:36:41,284 --> 00:36:44,044 Speaker 2: have been present from the start. And or I mean, 677 00:36:44,044 --> 00:36:47,964 Speaker 2: there are somewhat in some public opinion, right, like rumors 678 00:36:48,004 --> 00:36:52,164 Speaker 2: there that Pete Hegseth will get fired. Elon Musk has 679 00:36:52,244 --> 00:36:55,804 Speaker 2: been back seated a little bit, right, They haven't picked 680 00:36:55,804 --> 00:36:58,044 Speaker 2: fights on issues like abortion, whereas conversely, so let me 681 00:36:58,124 --> 00:37:00,204 Speaker 2: just give you just so we're at least staying somewhat 682 00:37:00,204 --> 00:37:01,004 Speaker 2: grounded in the data. 683 00:37:01,204 --> 00:37:02,844 Speaker 3: Twenty fifteen Gallup Poll. 684 00:37:02,924 --> 00:37:04,964 Speaker 2: Please tell me how much confidence you yourself have in 685 00:37:05,044 --> 00:37:08,844 Speaker 2: higher education twenty fifteen, fifty seven percent of Americans have 686 00:37:08,884 --> 00:37:10,764 Speaker 2: a great d are quite a lot of confidence. 687 00:37:11,324 --> 00:37:13,644 Speaker 3: Only ten percent have very little or no confidence. 688 00:37:13,724 --> 00:37:16,444 Speaker 2: Right so, mad to twenty twenty four, those numbers are 689 00:37:16,564 --> 00:37:19,644 Speaker 2: thirty six great deal and thirty two very little or 690 00:37:19,684 --> 00:37:23,524 Speaker 2: no confidence. Thirty two percent also say some confidence. So 691 00:37:23,564 --> 00:37:27,684 Speaker 2: basically you've gone from six to one high confidence to 692 00:37:27,764 --> 00:37:32,124 Speaker 2: low confidence to even And you know, some of that 693 00:37:32,164 --> 00:37:35,404 Speaker 2: happened during Trump's first term, but it's pretty linear and steady. 694 00:37:35,444 --> 00:37:37,764 Speaker 2: It's been you know, so this is a case where 695 00:37:37,804 --> 00:37:43,244 Speaker 2: Trump is picking an un sympathetic target. Now if you 696 00:37:43,284 --> 00:37:46,724 Speaker 2: go so far and sympathetic target, then like that target 697 00:37:46,724 --> 00:37:49,204 Speaker 2: may become like more sympathetic. 698 00:37:49,244 --> 00:37:49,804 Speaker 3: You know, I I. 699 00:37:51,644 --> 00:37:53,684 Speaker 2: A couple of friends who kind of work in university emissions. 700 00:37:53,684 --> 00:37:55,644 Speaker 2: I'd be like, if I are you, I'd be like, Wow, 701 00:37:55,724 --> 00:37:57,924 Speaker 2: now you can not feel selfish and greedy for donating 702 00:37:57,964 --> 00:37:59,484 Speaker 2: to Harvard because you're fighting in a good fight. I 703 00:37:59,524 --> 00:38:02,244 Speaker 2: would fucking I would fucking love it if I worked 704 00:38:02,244 --> 00:38:04,364 Speaker 2: in Harvard's fundraising committee. 705 00:38:04,444 --> 00:38:05,884 Speaker 3: Right now, now you're you know. 706 00:38:05,844 --> 00:38:08,724 Speaker 2: Because before I would say that giving money to a 707 00:38:08,764 --> 00:38:12,444 Speaker 2: richivally union is I'm not sure it's actually better than 708 00:38:13,564 --> 00:38:15,404 Speaker 2: setting your money on fire. Sending your money on fire 709 00:38:15,444 --> 00:38:17,844 Speaker 2: at least at least causes some degree of deflation. 710 00:38:18,084 --> 00:38:21,484 Speaker 3: Right, But if universes are actually tapping. 711 00:38:21,164 --> 00:38:24,284 Speaker 2: To their own downlands, then I'm much more sympathetic to that, 712 00:38:24,484 --> 00:38:26,444 Speaker 2: I would say. 713 00:38:28,804 --> 00:38:42,844 Speaker 1: And we'll be back right after this to kind of 714 00:38:42,884 --> 00:38:45,804 Speaker 1: sum up all of this chaos and everything we've been 715 00:38:45,844 --> 00:38:50,844 Speaker 1: talking about. From a strategic standpoint, it seems like these 716 00:38:50,884 --> 00:38:53,924 Speaker 1: are all crucial issues and people should be fighting all 717 00:38:53,964 --> 00:38:57,324 Speaker 1: of them. But from a messaging like let's win election standpoint, 718 00:38:57,564 --> 00:39:01,124 Speaker 1: I do think trying to focus on the economics, right, 719 00:39:01,204 --> 00:39:05,444 Speaker 1: on the tariffs, on the stuff that can actually appeal 720 00:39:05,564 --> 00:39:09,084 Speaker 1: to people and get them to potentially kind of change 721 00:39:09,084 --> 00:39:11,924 Speaker 1: their to change their minds or start voting. I think 722 00:39:11,924 --> 00:39:14,564 Speaker 1: that that should be kind of if we're talking about 723 00:39:14,564 --> 00:39:18,444 Speaker 1: democratic leadership, that should be the number one messaging, and 724 00:39:18,484 --> 00:39:20,724 Speaker 1: then all of the other stuff has to keep happening, right, 725 00:39:20,844 --> 00:39:24,324 Speaker 1: Keep fighting the court battles, delegate some stuff to Harvard, right, like, 726 00:39:25,044 --> 00:39:28,764 Speaker 1: keep fighting all of those things, keep those talking points going, 727 00:39:29,164 --> 00:39:32,324 Speaker 1: yet have that strategic unity that will bring people to 728 00:39:32,364 --> 00:39:34,924 Speaker 1: your cause and will be sympathetic and will not let 729 00:39:34,924 --> 00:39:38,004 Speaker 1: Trump pull the cards of the unpopular stuff. 730 00:39:38,084 --> 00:39:41,284 Speaker 3: Right, we bring on one more final game theory example. 731 00:39:41,364 --> 00:39:47,844 Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, even when there is some risk of cheating 732 00:39:48,204 --> 00:39:52,364 Speaker 2: or rules not being followed, then there is still an 733 00:39:52,364 --> 00:39:54,884 Speaker 2: equilibrium that emerges. 734 00:39:55,084 --> 00:39:58,764 Speaker 3: Right, Like you know, if you're in a cash game. 735 00:39:58,764 --> 00:40:02,844 Speaker 2: It's a very good cash game, but you're worried about 736 00:40:02,884 --> 00:40:04,724 Speaker 2: not getting paid, particularly if another. 737 00:40:04,484 --> 00:40:07,884 Speaker 3: Player loses too much money. I mean, that might affect 738 00:40:08,204 --> 00:40:09,204 Speaker 3: your play of certain hands. 739 00:40:09,284 --> 00:40:12,084 Speaker 2: Right if you think, you know, we've probably had all 740 00:40:12,124 --> 00:40:15,564 Speaker 2: the situation where you're playing poker and you check your cards. 741 00:40:15,604 --> 00:40:18,044 Speaker 2: Both us keep a pretty good lid on our carac right, 742 00:40:18,084 --> 00:40:20,284 Speaker 2: but sometimes you're can little sloppy. You kind of or 743 00:40:20,284 --> 00:40:21,844 Speaker 2: the car to slippery. You lift her a little high, 744 00:40:21,844 --> 00:40:25,124 Speaker 2: and you're worry that your opponent to the right saw 745 00:40:25,844 --> 00:40:27,084 Speaker 2: you know, at least a suit of the car. Right, 746 00:40:27,124 --> 00:40:28,644 Speaker 2: that might make you a little bit more cautious when 747 00:40:28,684 --> 00:40:30,524 Speaker 2: you're playing out At the point is like Trump is 748 00:40:30,564 --> 00:40:34,244 Speaker 2: not completely un constrained, right if he had a twenty 749 00:40:34,244 --> 00:40:38,404 Speaker 2: percent approval rating, so he's unpopular even in redistricts in Congress, 750 00:40:38,884 --> 00:40:43,204 Speaker 2: would I'm sure have no trouble finding grounds to impeaching, Right, 751 00:40:43,604 --> 00:40:45,564 Speaker 2: Will it come to that during the next three and 752 00:40:45,564 --> 00:40:47,484 Speaker 2: a half years, I would tend to doubt it, right, 753 00:40:47,484 --> 00:40:49,884 Speaker 2: But the point is that like that, like that is 754 00:40:50,124 --> 00:40:53,124 Speaker 2: some constraint operating on some level. 755 00:40:53,204 --> 00:40:53,364 Speaker 1: Right. 756 00:40:53,484 --> 00:40:57,924 Speaker 2: The fact that Jade Vance, I presume, would like to 757 00:40:57,964 --> 00:41:02,084 Speaker 2: be president and not lose to AOC whatever in four years, 758 00:41:02,404 --> 00:41:06,284 Speaker 2: that that provides some constraint on Trump. 759 00:41:06,364 --> 00:41:06,524 Speaker 3: Right. 760 00:41:06,564 --> 00:41:08,604 Speaker 2: The fact that Trump likes to be well liked by 761 00:41:08,604 --> 00:41:09,684 Speaker 2: certain types of people. 762 00:41:09,524 --> 00:41:10,724 Speaker 3: Rides some constraint. 763 00:41:10,804 --> 00:41:14,404 Speaker 2: And and the court provides some constraint because you know 764 00:41:14,644 --> 00:41:16,644 Speaker 2: this everyal Garcia case is what I call a finder's 765 00:41:16,684 --> 00:41:18,604 Speaker 2: keeper's case, where oops, he's in El Salvador. 766 00:41:19,044 --> 00:41:22,324 Speaker 3: The default is he's still there. Right. In other cases, 767 00:41:22,364 --> 00:41:24,564 Speaker 3: the default is that like, okay. 768 00:41:24,284 --> 00:41:26,524 Speaker 2: Well now now someone as if you were in the 769 00:41:26,644 --> 00:41:29,204 Speaker 2: US and you say you can't deport him, well, now 770 00:41:29,244 --> 00:41:32,164 Speaker 2: someone who acts in that chain to deport him is 771 00:41:32,284 --> 00:41:34,324 Speaker 2: violating a law and then they could get in trouble 772 00:41:34,364 --> 00:41:37,044 Speaker 2: and so like so you know, it's not always the case. 773 00:41:37,124 --> 00:41:38,884 Speaker 3: And by the way, if you have stage sitting and 774 00:41:38,884 --> 00:41:39,124 Speaker 3: we're not. 775 00:41:39,124 --> 00:41:41,724 Speaker 2: Going to respect these court decisions, right, I mean you 776 00:41:41,724 --> 00:41:43,684 Speaker 2: have had this during the Civil rights era, not in a 777 00:41:43,684 --> 00:41:46,524 Speaker 2: good way, where Southern states were being you know, disobedient 778 00:41:46,524 --> 00:41:49,284 Speaker 2: and things like that, and then and then you know, 779 00:41:49,404 --> 00:41:51,524 Speaker 2: it gets very it gets very messy. But the point 780 00:41:51,564 --> 00:41:54,084 Speaker 2: is that like Trump does face some constraints. They're not 781 00:41:54,164 --> 00:41:57,004 Speaker 2: the constraints that I might want or the constraints that 782 00:41:57,044 --> 00:42:00,004 Speaker 2: the founders might have envision, but like, but they basically 783 00:42:00,044 --> 00:42:03,604 Speaker 2: all boil down to, like can you marshall public opinion 784 00:42:04,164 --> 00:42:06,684 Speaker 2: on your side? And the kind of silver bulletin article 785 00:42:06,764 --> 00:42:08,644 Speaker 2: makes a case that like, you know, it might be 786 00:42:08,724 --> 00:42:12,284 Speaker 2: kind of a moral thing too, oh, you know, fighting 787 00:42:12,444 --> 00:42:16,884 Speaker 2: the good fight. Well, we are a democracy, right, Like, 788 00:42:17,364 --> 00:42:19,364 Speaker 2: if you think Trump is very damaging to the health 789 00:42:19,444 --> 00:42:21,684 Speaker 2: or republic, and I'm eighty percent of the way there, 790 00:42:21,724 --> 00:42:24,924 Speaker 2: I think, right then, like then, like you have to 791 00:42:24,964 --> 00:42:26,724 Speaker 2: be politically smart. 792 00:42:26,844 --> 00:42:30,284 Speaker 1: Yep, I think that's a good end message, be politically 793 00:42:30,364 --> 00:42:34,004 Speaker 1: smart because we do not want the damage to be 794 00:42:34,044 --> 00:42:41,804 Speaker 1: permanent and fatal. Let us know what you think of 795 00:42:41,844 --> 00:42:44,844 Speaker 1: the show. Reach out to us at Risky Business at 796 00:42:44,884 --> 00:42:48,044 Speaker 1: Pushkin dot fm. And by the way, if you're a 797 00:42:48,044 --> 00:42:50,924 Speaker 1: Pushkin Plus subscriber, we have some bonus content for you. 798 00:42:51,524 --> 00:42:54,604 Speaker 1: We'll be answering a listener question each week that's coming 799 00:42:54,684 --> 00:42:56,284 Speaker 1: up right after the credits. 800 00:42:56,604 --> 00:42:59,884 Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for 801 00:43:00,044 --> 00:43:02,204 Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. What a nice price 802 00:43:02,564 --> 00:43:05,444 Speaker 2: you get access to all that premium content and for 803 00:43:05,524 --> 00:43:08,244 Speaker 2: listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows. 804 00:43:08,684 --> 00:43:11,844 Speaker 1: Risky Business hosted by me Maria Kanikova. 805 00:43:11,644 --> 00:43:12,964 Speaker 3: And by me Nate Silver. 806 00:43:13,364 --> 00:43:16,484 Speaker 2: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. 807 00:43:17,124 --> 00:43:20,204 Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer 808 00:43:20,244 --> 00:43:23,044 Speaker 2: is Sonia Gerwit Sally helm As our editor, and our 809 00:43:23,084 --> 00:43:24,924 Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 810 00:43:25,404 --> 00:43:26,604 Speaker 3: Mixing by Sarah Bruguer. 811 00:43:27,044 --> 00:43:29,404 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us 812 00:43:29,444 --> 00:43:31,804 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too. Thanks so much 813 00:43:31,844 --> 00:43:32,364 Speaker 1: for tuning in.