WEBVTT - Trivago CEO Optimistic on Summer Return for Travel

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. We definitely love

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<v Speaker 1>talking about travel, and we just broke down expedior earnings,

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<v Speaker 1>which just across the Bloomberg. You might have seen this

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<v Speaker 1>week that the Biden administration considering whether to impost some

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<v Speaker 1>domestic travel restrictions, including Florida. Concern about kind of reversing

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<v Speaker 1>some of the progress that we've made as a country

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<v Speaker 1>on the pandemic. Another story about how travelers could get

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<v Speaker 1>COVID vaccine certificates to enable entry to countries under plans

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<v Speaker 1>being discussed by ministers with governor with government governments. Excuse me,

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<v Speaker 1>and the aviation industry want to get to I'm rushing

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<v Speaker 1>because I want to bring him in a go to

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<v Speaker 1>voice for us when it comes to travel. We've talked

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<v Speaker 1>with him many times throughout the pandemic. Axel Heifer is

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<v Speaker 1>back with us. He see out the online travel platform

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<v Speaker 1>in search site Travago, and he joins us on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from Germany. Excel, it is so great to have

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<v Speaker 1>you back with us. How how are things going? Yeah, wait,

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<v Speaker 1>wait to stop. I mean, as Roger said, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>the times are still pretty difficult UM for travel obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>but than for for all of us with all the

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<v Speaker 1>restrictions around the world. On the other hand, UM, I

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<v Speaker 1>do think that there is is clear hope and there

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<v Speaker 1>is a clear path to UM to return to a

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<v Speaker 1>more normal life. And the second half of the year

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<v Speaker 1>with some countries being very successful in vaccinating very quickly

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<v Speaker 1>UM and more and more vaccination production capacity coming online.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's it's a mixed um of of a very

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult present and an improving outlook for the future.

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<v Speaker 1>Before we look forward a little bit, tell me, I mean, so,

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<v Speaker 1>is everything pretty quiet still? Is it like it's been

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<v Speaker 1>largely the last year or so? Are you seeing some

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<v Speaker 1>activity a little bit on your platform? I mean the

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<v Speaker 1>travel is travel activity is very limited, UM. So we

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<v Speaker 1>we've we've seen quite a lot of travel in the

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<v Speaker 1>third quarter of last year where the infections came down

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<v Speaker 1>pretty much everywhere in the northernmosphere, and you could clearly

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<v Speaker 1>see that there is a huge demand of UM of

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<v Speaker 1>all of us getting a break and traveling, seeing friends

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<v Speaker 1>and family and and just going to the beach or

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<v Speaker 1>the mountains. But then with the autumn coming, infections have

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<v Speaker 1>obviously come up, and travel has collapsed pretty much UM

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<v Speaker 1>in all of our main markets, so the demand is

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<v Speaker 1>is very quiet. But you know, we are we are

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<v Speaker 1>focusing on on the recovery and improving our product offering. Well.

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<v Speaker 1>It's interesting too, I mentioned Expedia reporting, Disney reporting earnings.

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<v Speaker 1>You know we're watching too in terms of uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>indications of when they start to see their parks opening.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you see this is a second half story,

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<v Speaker 1>a third quarter, fourth quarters story, I mean, how do

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<v Speaker 1>you see it? Maybe you know playing out here. It's

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult to predict, but we are we are very

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<v Speaker 1>confident that by the third quarter most of the main

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<v Speaker 1>markets will have made a lot of progress UM and

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<v Speaker 1>and in the vaccination program, so that there will be

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<v Speaker 1>returned to to travel will in summer, and the question

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<v Speaker 1>when the summer will start will will obviously be answered

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<v Speaker 1>slightly differently market by market. If you look at countries

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<v Speaker 1>like Israel, UM, I mean, they will be fully vaccinated

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<v Speaker 1>much much earlier than than some countries in continentally Europe

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<v Speaker 1>and UM, the UK and the US being somewhere in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle. So as soon as there are sufficient progress

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<v Speaker 1>and through the better weather, the new infections world dropped,

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<v Speaker 1>there will be some return to travel well. And what's

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<v Speaker 1>interesting too, and I think you and I actually have

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<v Speaker 1>talked about it before. You know, this whole idea of

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<v Speaker 1>health passport or some kind of COVID you know, vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>certificates to allow you to go you know, across border.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we gonna do we need that in order for

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<v Speaker 1>this to work and for the travel industry to really

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<v Speaker 1>open up. It's a good question, and I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>a It's the question is to me more political question,

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<v Speaker 1>how this would be implemented. I mean, if you if

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<v Speaker 1>you would only allow UM for vaccinated people to travel,

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<v Speaker 1>I think at that is UM could create quite some

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<v Speaker 1>some issues because there is a certain certain sequence of

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<v Speaker 1>handing vaccinations out UM, so so there is a clear

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<v Speaker 1>preference to a certain age groups in particular. Whereas if

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<v Speaker 1>you use the vaccination passports to make it easier to

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<v Speaker 1>travel so to UM, to lift the requirements of a

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<v Speaker 1>quarantine or of UM of multiple tests UM, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that that is a different matter, and it would for

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<v Speaker 1>sure help to make it easier. But the key thing

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<v Speaker 1>that is holding travel back is more the predictability. So

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<v Speaker 1>will I be able to go somewhere. What kind of

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<v Speaker 1>experience will I have and will I be able to

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<v Speaker 1>return without an unexpected position of a new quarantine restrictions

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<v Speaker 1>or travel restrictions do you anticipate to And I think

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<v Speaker 1>we've talked about this too, that the type of travel

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<v Speaker 1>that maybe we continue to see, at least for at

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<v Speaker 1>least the first half of the year and maybe even

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<v Speaker 1>into the second half of the year is much more

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<v Speaker 1>you know, country within a country, you know, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more of local travel. Do we can tea

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<v Speaker 1>to see that kind of thing versus cross border? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I would expect the same pattern that we've seen in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty. So first friends and family UM, and predominantly

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<v Speaker 1>domestic or neighboring internationals, so for the US, Mexico, and

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<v Speaker 1>then UM continentally, for example, for Germany was a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of Netherlands and Austria UM, and then UM with more

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<v Speaker 1>progress also some international travel, and international travel obviously requires

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more improvement, as you need an improved situation

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<v Speaker 1>in the country of origin and the country of destination

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<v Speaker 1>to then UM installed travel corridors. But domestic will will

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<v Speaker 1>be the first for shure to recover. You sound exhausted

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know. I mean I I it has been.

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<v Speaker 1>It has been pretty much exactly a year. Actually we reported,

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<v Speaker 1>we reported this week and I looked it up. So

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<v Speaker 1>the the first earnings that we report a queue for

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<v Speaker 1>twenty ninety in actually February eleventh, we we had this

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<v Speaker 1>one sentence in the share all the latter that said,

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<v Speaker 1>there is the new virus spreading in Asia, and we

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<v Speaker 1>don't think that we can make give any guidance because

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<v Speaker 1>there is some uncertainty. Um. And of course it turned

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<v Speaker 1>out very, very different than what we anticipated. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think now that we are one, we we are closer

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<v Speaker 1>to the end of the pandemic than than to the beginning.

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<v Speaker 1>And and that's the way to think about it. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so today I have an optimism, be an optimist, and

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<v Speaker 1>and focus on on the recovery rather than looking at

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<v Speaker 1>the difficult times that we are still in right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Right because I know all the times that we've talked

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<v Speaker 1>to you over the past year, I mean, this whole

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<v Speaker 1>idea we talked about. You know that we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>a playbook. We're kind of finding our way through it.

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<v Speaker 1>And I do feel like vaccines are certainly a game changer.

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<v Speaker 1>I talked earlier on our broadcast about how let me

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<v Speaker 1>just find the stats so that I can do it right.

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<v Speaker 1>But Dr Anthony Fauci, at least here for the US

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<v Speaker 1>as US vaccines supply should increase enough by April all out,

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<v Speaker 1>anyone who wants a shot to begin getting one. That

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<v Speaker 1>to me like, we're getting, you know, goal posts like this,

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<v Speaker 1>signposts like this to give us some idea of a

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<v Speaker 1>visibility going forward. You I'm assuming you're talking to a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people in the travel industry, you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the second half? Is everybody kind of talking

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<v Speaker 1>about the second half at this point? I think there

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<v Speaker 1>there's there's a wide consensus that in the second half

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<v Speaker 1>we should see a significant improvement. Um, whether we see

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<v Speaker 1>it a bit earlier. They are obviously the very very

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<v Speaker 1>different assumptions and and the different perspective on the on

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<v Speaker 1>the second quarter is predominantly driven by the uncertainty around

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<v Speaker 1>the new virus variants. So how quickly will they spread?

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<v Speaker 1>What exactly will that mean for um, the increase in

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<v Speaker 1>infections And on the other hand, how quickly, um will

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccination programs be rolled out, and how quickly will

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<v Speaker 1>the mortality rate drop? And depending on on your view

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<v Speaker 1>on those two questions, you're you're more positive or more

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<v Speaker 1>skeptical for a bit earlier recovery and earlier start of

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<v Speaker 1>the summer. So how do you continue to run a

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<v Speaker 1>company in this environment? I know you've got to worry

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<v Speaker 1>about employees, UM, tell me where you are with that.

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<v Speaker 1>And and I'm also how do you do kind of

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<v Speaker 1>long term strategic planning in this type of environment or

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<v Speaker 1>do you kind of just have to put it on

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<v Speaker 1>hold until you get through this? I mean on the

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<v Speaker 1>on the business side, UM, it is actually not that

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<v Speaker 1>difficult because the every every data point that we look at,

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<v Speaker 1>every survey that you look at, shows that there is

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<v Speaker 1>an increasing desire to travel. I mean the longer the

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<v Speaker 1>lockdowns and the restrictions last, the more we all want

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<v Speaker 1>to travel and you know, see friends and family and

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<v Speaker 1>and really get out of there and and break out

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<v Speaker 1>of the routine. So there is very strong demand and

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<v Speaker 1>we are not worried at all that there will be

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<v Speaker 1>no no rebound ones. Things are more under control. The

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<v Speaker 1>bigger challenge, UM is is I think I mean not

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<v Speaker 1>specific to travel, is it's a change that we are

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<v Speaker 1>all facing that this has been going on now depending

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<v Speaker 1>on where you live for for a year, and and

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<v Speaker 1>we are all exhausted. I mean, it's just it's difficult

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<v Speaker 1>to live in a in a world where, um, you

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<v Speaker 1>basically spend most of your time at home, where the

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<v Speaker 1>schools are closed in a lot of countries and a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of regions where you need to be a parent

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<v Speaker 1>and employee and a teacher at the same time in

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<v Speaker 1>parallel basically. And that's why I think what what will

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<v Speaker 1>make it make much easier and give us a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of relief will be the reopening of schools wherever they

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<v Speaker 1>are closed, and then also the reopening of some activities

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<v Speaker 1>that that allow you to allow us to break out

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<v Speaker 1>of the routine. And then the step after that is

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<v Speaker 1>travel UM. And I think once we see the first

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<v Speaker 1>steps that that that that allow us to to have

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<v Speaker 1>a bit more normal life, the pressure that we all

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<v Speaker 1>feel will will be um will ease a lot. And

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<v Speaker 1>and that is also the key challenge in running a

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<v Speaker 1>travel business, but running any business, I would say, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>do you anticipate that in the second half you could

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<v Speaker 1>see your business up two hundred three d as people

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<v Speaker 1>who as you said, I'm with them, I'm tired of it.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I've been basically living in a bubble for

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<v Speaker 1>the most part, and um, you know, can't kind of

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<v Speaker 1>wait to be able to just kind of break out

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. Do you anticipate that we could see

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<v Speaker 1>some kind of off the charts kind of increases when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to travel. There there there will be definitely

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<v Speaker 1>be a rebound. I mean how much exactly is almost

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<v Speaker 1>impossible to predict, to be honest, because you will still

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<v Speaker 1>have certain parts of the population that we'll see friends

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<v Speaker 1>and family but will be reluctant to really travel, will

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<v Speaker 1>not feel feel fully safe and and in a way, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think it really matters. I mean we we

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<v Speaker 1>can't cannot force it anyway, and all we can do

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<v Speaker 1>is to prepare as good as we can and offer

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<v Speaker 1>services and and support for those that do want to travel.

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<v Speaker 1>And if if the the certain segments will will travel

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<v Speaker 1>the year after so so so so so let's be

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<v Speaker 1>I mean that that that that's okay. Um, And we

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<v Speaker 1>we've also been a bit bit spoiled, I mean, being

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<v Speaker 1>being a travel tech company. I mean we've only seen

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<v Speaker 1>growth and it's not it's quite normal for a business

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<v Speaker 1>to also have one or two bad years right, there

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<v Speaker 1>are cycles. Yeah, that's exactly. But but there are a

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<v Speaker 1>business cycles. Then as long as we are getting out

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<v Speaker 1>of it, whether we're getting out of it a bit

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<v Speaker 1>bit bit more quickly or a bit more slowly, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think that's that's really a big concern. Hey, well,

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<v Speaker 1>last question. You did report earning some members of the

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Alice community raising their price targets on you

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<v Speaker 1>guys financially, do you feel like you can get through

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<v Speaker 1>easily or you can at least get through another couple

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<v Speaker 1>of rough quarters if you need to. Yeah, absolutely, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean there there we were, and we were in a

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<v Speaker 1>very fortunate position that we had a very conservative balance

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<v Speaker 1>sheet when we entered the crisis with a quite healthy

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<v Speaker 1>cash position and and UM and looking at the year

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<v Speaker 1>of twenty we basically kept our our cash position but

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<v Speaker 1>i UM by reducing our working capital and that that

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<v Speaker 1>has funded our operating losses, so we we didn't have

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<v Speaker 1>to raise any capital m and still have the same

0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:13.120
<v Speaker 1>same cash balance, pretty much the same cash balance. So

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<v Speaker 1>so from that perspective, we were not really worried at

0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:19.000
<v Speaker 1>all UM and that it should be well sufficient for

0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.959
<v Speaker 1>UM for the month and perhaps even quarters to come well,

0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:24.960
<v Speaker 1>looking forward in the quarters to come talking to you

0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:27.719
<v Speaker 1>with a much more I'm glad to hear your optimism,

0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:30.200
<v Speaker 1>but I'm hoping the environment is is a lot more

0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:32.920
<v Speaker 1>optimistic as well. Axel, thank you so much. Exel he

0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.360
<v Speaker 1>for CEO of at Travago on the phone in Germany.