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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on AMMO, car Play and then broud Otto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: This time yesterday, we were talking about new ratings from

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Speaker 2: the Cook Political Report, including a move for the Pennsylvania

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Speaker 2: Senate race the incumbent Bob Casey against Dave McCormick to

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Speaker 2: a toss up from Lean's Democratic and we were asking

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Speaker 2: the question, is it possible that you could see a

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Speaker 2: difference in the outcome of the Senate race in terms

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Speaker 2: of what party wins and presidential? Could Trump win and

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Speaker 2: Casey win, Could Harris win and McCormick win. And one

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Speaker 2: of those states where it might be most likely that

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Speaker 2: we see that kind of ticket splitting could potentially be

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Speaker 2: in Ohio. It's now a bright red state, Joe. It's

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Speaker 2: probably going to go Donald Trump unless something majorly unforeseen happens.

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Speaker 2: And yet it's a Democratic incumbent that is vying to

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Speaker 2: keep his seat there. A chair of the Senate Bank Committee,

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Speaker 2: Shared Brown, who does stand a chance against his challenger,

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Speaker 2: Bernie Marino. But this is an expensive.

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Speaker 3: Race, could be the most expensive in the country. Here

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Speaker 3: they've dumped five hundred million dollars into this contest already

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Speaker 3: with two weeks to go.

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Speaker 4: Remarkable. And you're right, Kaylee.

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Speaker 3: This is Shared Brown, who we talk about a lot here,

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Speaker 3: largely because of his chairmanship. He's featured prominently on Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: TV and radio. The Real Clear Politics average gives him

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Speaker 3: a little over a half percent, some of the others

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Speaker 3: five thirty eight, little closer to one percent.

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Speaker 4: But in a sea of red, that's actually doing pretty well.

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Speaker 3: And Steve Dennis has an important story about this today

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Speaker 3: on the terminal Bloomberg Congressional reporter with a great read

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Speaker 3: in rust belt Ohio. He writes, a senator fights to

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Speaker 3: hang on in Trump's turf.

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Speaker 4: Stephen, thanks for being with us. It's good to see you.

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Speaker 3: On balance of power. What if we can say Sharon

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Speaker 3: Brown is doing well? What is he doing right?

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Speaker 5: You know, he has a deep well of support among

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Speaker 5: working class voters who have swung over to Trump, and

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Speaker 5: especially in places like the Mahoning Valley which have seen

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Speaker 5: huge job losses to Mexico, to China, a lot of

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Speaker 5: shuttered factories and steel mills. There are a lot of

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Speaker 5: voters there who have been voting for Shared Brown because

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Speaker 5: he opposed those trade deals, and they see Trump and

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Speaker 5: Brown as sort of simpatico on the trade issues that

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Speaker 5: they feel like hollowed out their communities and their towns.

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Speaker 5: Now the question is whether he can maintain that support

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Speaker 5: among enough of those blue collar voters who are sort

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Speaker 5: of voting Republican up and down the ballot more and more.

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Speaker 5: You know, Brown's now the last Democrats standing essentially statewide.

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Speaker 5: And if you look at a county like Mahoning County,

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Speaker 5: where Youngstown is long a Democratic stronghold, you know, only

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Speaker 5: one thirty five percent there. But Donald Trump won it

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Speaker 5: outright in twenty twenty. And the last time Brown ran

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Speaker 5: in twenty eighteen, he won by twenty himself. JD. Vance

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Speaker 5: won it four years later by three. So there are

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Speaker 5: a lot of these crossover voters that I've tried to

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Speaker 5: talk to for about a week in Ohio, and and

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Speaker 5: there are they're split. There's some who are now going

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Speaker 5: the moreno, and there's some who are undecided, including the

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Speaker 5: UAW shop chairman at the Ultium sales factory, exactly the

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Speaker 5: kind of person that Brown's trying to appeal to that's

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Speaker 5: at a plan that's benefited from billions of dollars from

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Speaker 5: Joe Biden's you know climate law.

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Speaker 2: Well, if we consider benefiting from dollar Steve, as Joe mentioned,

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Speaker 2: this is a very expensive race, half a billion dollars spent,

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Speaker 2: some forty million dollars spent by crypto pac money. Specifically,

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Speaker 2: what difference is the money making?

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Speaker 5: You know, if you if you go there, you talk

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Speaker 5: to voters. They're being inundated with these attack ads going

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Speaker 5: after Sharon Brown on things like transgender issues, which he's

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Speaker 5: very upset about. Feels like these ads are lies. Moreno's

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Speaker 5: also very upset about the ads against him, and it's

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Speaker 5: just NonStop attack ads. Mostly. One of the issues that

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Speaker 5: Brown also hopes will carry the day with some Trump

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Speaker 5: voters is abortion rights. This is an issue where Ohio

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Speaker 5: voted last year fifty seven to forty three to enshrine

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Speaker 5: abortion rights in the constitution, despite the fact that it's

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Speaker 5: a Trump state. So that's an issue where there are

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Speaker 5: crossover voters that Brown's really trying to appeal to. And

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Speaker 5: I did talk to one Trump voter a woman in

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Speaker 5: just north of Youngstown who told me that she was

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Speaker 5: offended by Bernie Moreno's comment the other day that sort

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Speaker 5: of mocking suburban women who prioritize abortion rights, especially if

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Speaker 5: they're over fifty. She didn't like that, you know. She

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Speaker 5: said she's going to vote for Brown, trusts him, feels

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Speaker 5: like he has done the right thing for workers there,

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Speaker 5: and also cited the trade policies that Brown has supported

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Speaker 5: in the past. So you know there are The question

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Speaker 5: is how many of those voters are there. The polling

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Speaker 5: suggests that Brown's not doing as well with Trump voters

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Speaker 5: as he did six years ago when he won by

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Speaker 5: more than six points, But could it be enough to win?

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Speaker 5: And that's like the five hundred million dollar question.

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Speaker 3: Here find the story on the terminal and online in

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Speaker 3: russ Belt, Ohio, where Stephen Dennis just spent some good

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Speaker 3: time reporting a senator fights to hang on in Trump's turf.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington as we

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Speaker 3: assemble our panel for their take on this and more

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Speaker 3: stories today on the campaign trail. Genie Schanzano is with

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Speaker 3: US partner, I should say, a political science professor at

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Speaker 3: Iona University. Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital. Great

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Speaker 3: to see both of you here, Jennie. This is one

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Speaker 3: of those states where Kamala Harris probably will not help

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Speaker 3: the incumbent. There are sometimes when Kamala Harris can help

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Speaker 3: being on stage, actually showing up to stump in person,

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Speaker 3: and other times where it's actually more helpful to stay away.

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Speaker 4: Is this one of them.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it probably is. And it's such a fascinating story.

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Speaker 6: The idea that Brown could hold a state where Trump

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Speaker 6: is you know, an all likelihood might win by ten

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Speaker 6: plus or minus points. It's an incredible story. But yeah,

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Speaker 6: she doesn't need, you know, Kamala Harris. Certainly Joe Biden

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Speaker 6: out there. He's got to handle this on his own.

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Speaker 6: As you just talked about.

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Speaker 2: Well, it raises the question of how much in these

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Speaker 2: battleground states, Ohio not being one, Rick, we could expect

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Speaker 2: there to be a difference in the outcome of what

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Speaker 2: party wins control of that Senate seat versus wins the

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Speaker 2: presidential vote in these states. If you look at where

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Speaker 2: there are contests in Michigan, in Wisconsin, in states like

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Speaker 2: Arizona in Pennsylvania, which we talked about yesterday, do you

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Speaker 2: expect that, in all likelihood, if Donald Trump is winning

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Speaker 2: these states, that Republicans may be performing better than polls

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Speaker 2: currently suggest in those Senate races.

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Speaker 7: Well, it certainly has the potentially give you an uplift

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Speaker 7: if the top of your ticket is, you know, winning.

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Speaker 7: And we've seen in the last four maybe five elections

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Speaker 7: for president that the national party candidate really decides the

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Speaker 7: outcome of the down ballot races. Right, we have very

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Speaker 7: few examples where we've had a Republican win like Trump

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Speaker 7: did in sixteen. And you know, in a state where

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Speaker 7: a governor is a Republican and the senator doesn't win,

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Speaker 7: who's a Republican. I mean, we've become very homogeneous in

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Speaker 7: our geography of politics, and so yeah, I think that

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Speaker 7: this is probably a year that's not kind of incumbents

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Speaker 7: in general. So we've seen incumbents struggle a little bit

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Speaker 7: from both parties, I might add. And so the uplift

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Speaker 7: that you're hoping is that the top of the ticket

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Speaker 7: really drives turnout. I would say slightly different than in

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Speaker 7: the past. The Republican parties offloaded its turnout mechanism to

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Speaker 7: Elon Musk, so it doesn't have firm control over who

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Speaker 7: gets turned out. So how would you like to be

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Speaker 7: you know, the Bernie Moreno canet who isn't getting the

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Speaker 7: cooperation from Musk because he's only doing turnout in places

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Speaker 7: like targeted states, and he could use some of that

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Speaker 7: money and effort done in Colorado.

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Speaker 1: Way.

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Speaker 3: Pretty fascinating dynamic here once again involving Elon Musk with

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Speaker 3: a group of former Republican lawmakers, advisors, and Justice Department

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Speaker 3: officials now sending a letter to Merrick Garland to investigate

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Speaker 3: this sweepstakes idea that we talked about.

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Speaker 4: Genie.

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Speaker 3: He's giving away a million dollars a day. I still

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Speaker 3: wonder how many Democrats end.

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Speaker 4: Up capturing those checks.

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Speaker 3: Is Elon Musk the most important person not named Trump

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Speaker 3: or Harris in this presidential campaign?

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Speaker 8: You know, he certainly is one of them.

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Speaker 6: I would just add to the list. Know, not quite

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Speaker 6: up there with Elon Musk, but Charlie Kirk is also

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Speaker 6: supposed to be handling some of this turnout for the Republicans.

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Speaker 6: And both of these are untested in this realm, so

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Speaker 6: I have to see how they do. And I can

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Speaker 6: just tell you this just off, you know, just from

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Speaker 6: a conversation I just had with a student from Pennsylvania

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Speaker 6: who said Elon Musk was at her high school and

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Speaker 6: in order to enter the place you had to sign.

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Speaker 6: So it's going to be interesting to see how these

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Speaker 6: legal questions on this sweepstakes turn out. But I do

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Speaker 6: think that it is an important issue to think that

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Speaker 6: you now have a major party in the Republican Party

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Speaker 6: at two weeks to go here, who are giving to

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Speaker 6: the wealthiest man probably ever in the world, Elon Musk

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Speaker 6: and then Charlie Kirk, the you know, the drivers, the

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Speaker 6: keys to turnout for a very very close election. I

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Speaker 6: would make me nervous if I was a Republican depending

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Speaker 6: on them, if only because they are so untested in

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Speaker 6: this realm.

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Speaker 8: Well.

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk, of course, someone we spend a lot of

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Speaker 2: time talking about here on Bloomberg TV and radio, along

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Speaker 2: with other figures in the Wall Street world, including the

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Speaker 2: likes of Jamie Diamond, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase,

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Speaker 2: with which The New York Times is reporting today that

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Speaker 2: he privately supports Kamala Harris but is afraid to say

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Speaker 2: so for fear of blowback if Donald Trump wins. He

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Speaker 2: also is expressed in private, According to sources familiar with

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Speaker 2: the matter, interest in serving in a Harris administration, perhaps

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Speaker 2: as Treasury Secretary. Jeanie wouldn't make any difference to Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris's campaign at this point in the race. If Jamie

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Speaker 2: Diamond were to express the support out loud and vocally,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think.

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Speaker 6: It may along the edges, although I have to say

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Speaker 6: most of the people who would probably be listening and

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Speaker 6: hearing and moved by that have already made up their mind.

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Speaker 6: It can't hurt if he says publicly he supports her,

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Speaker 6: But I think, you know, it's very clear that for

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Speaker 6: him and his company, it is probably best not to

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Speaker 6: do that. And I'm just thinking back to our conversations

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Speaker 6: about McDonald's yesterday and Charlie Pellett telling us that they

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Speaker 6: came out very swiftly to say they are gold, not

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Speaker 6: red or blue, and I think that's probably wise and

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Speaker 6: sage advice for a lot of these companies, because there's

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Speaker 6: very little benefit to them to alienate either their customers,

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Speaker 6: their shareholders, or quite frankly, the people who work for

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Speaker 6: them by expressing support in that way.

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Speaker 3: Rick, your well versus in the investment community, as a

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Speaker 3: partner at stone Court Capital. What impacts would that have

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Speaker 3: Jamie Diamond on your team this stage of the campaign.

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Speaker 7: Well, you probably would have hoped that it had happened

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Speaker 7: a long time ago, because obviously he is a blackbird

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Speaker 7: in Wall Street. He brings other people with him, He

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Speaker 7: brings an enormous amount of capacity to fundraise, and so

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Speaker 7: that financing isn't going to be really that readily available

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Speaker 7: in the last two weeks of the election. I think

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Speaker 7: it adds a lot of credibility and seriousness to the

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Speaker 7: Harris effort. And look, I mean, Wall Street a long

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Speaker 7: time ago gave up this notion that capitalists don't play

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Speaker 7: in politics. The only thing different between capitalists and politicians

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Speaker 7: are politicians want money and capitalists want power, so sooner

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Speaker 7: or later they converge. And that's what I think you

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Speaker 7: see a little bit of Jamie Dimond doing right now,

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Speaker 7: is seeing the potential for power.

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Speaker 2: Well, as we think about Wall Street, it does remind

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Speaker 2: us that Donald Trump is going to be spending time

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Speaker 2: in New York this weekend of rally scheduled for a

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Speaker 2: Sunday at Madison Square Garden. We've spent some time analyzing

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Speaker 2: why exactly he would be spending any time not in

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Speaker 2: a swing state at this point. But we also learned today, Rick,

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Speaker 2: that Kamala Harris will be visiting a non swing state too.

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Speaker 2: She's going to Texas on Friday, Houston, specifically to highlight

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Speaker 2: abortion rights. Rick, is that a good use of her

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Speaker 2: time just ten days out from election day?

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Speaker 7: A complete and utter waste of a perfectly good campaign day.

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Speaker 7: I mean, I really don't get it. There's no evidence

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Speaker 7: for her that she's been able to dominate the media

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Speaker 7: by just showing up in some you know, random place

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Speaker 7: and driving news. She has a different problem than Donald Trump.

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Speaker 7: Donald Trump can generate news from his toilet in mar Lago,

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Speaker 7: it doesn't really matter where he is, and she needs

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Speaker 7: to spend time in these these states that are swing states,

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Speaker 7: and Texas is not a swing state. That senate race

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Speaker 7: is not a swing senate race. She is wasting perfectly

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Speaker 7: good time that is not readily replaceable in her campaign

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Speaker 7: by showing up in Texas. Maybe it's a sot to

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Speaker 7: trying to get more Hispanic vote, which she's doing today,

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Speaker 7: you know, by doing a taping for thirty minutes for

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Speaker 7: I think it's a Telemundo interview but the reality is

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Speaker 7: spend time in Pennsylvania. You can't win without it.

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Speaker 3: Kinney, She's got interviews today on NBC and then Telemundo.

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Speaker 3: As Rick just mentioned off the trail, no big rallies today,

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Speaker 3: We've only got a minute left. There's something I've been

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Speaker 3: meaning to ask you both about That's been really interesting

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Speaker 3: to see Kamala Harris using sound cuts the way we

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Speaker 3: do here on TV and radio, playing clips of Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump to make points during her rallies. He has now

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Speaker 3: started using his own campaign ads to play as clips.

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Speaker 4: Is this effective?

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Speaker 6: I think it is effective for her. She's calling for

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Speaker 6: those sacks, Joe, she wants them, and you know, hey,

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Speaker 6: listen when she's gonna pull out stuff that she thinks

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Speaker 6: is unhinged that he said, she thinks it's effective.

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Speaker 8: And I would say I disagree with Rick.

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Speaker 6: On Texas because she is closing on abortion and Texas

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Speaker 6: is the epicenter of the abortion bands. She's got people

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Speaker 6: like Katie Cox and other women victimized down there, and

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Speaker 6: this is a critical part of her strategy. She started

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Speaker 6: out the year talking about reproductive health and she's coming

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Speaker 6: back to it. It's not a swing state, but it's

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Speaker 6: an important issue.

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Speaker 2: All right, Schanzano and Rick Davis, our signature political panel.

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Speaker 2: Thank you both for joining us. We all have more

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Speaker 2: ahead with the president and CEO of Vodo Lutina, look

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Speaker 2: at that demographic specifically right here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: ron Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us on Balance of Power, the

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Speaker 3: Tuesday edition on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I am Joe

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Speaker 3: Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington following the candidates on

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Speaker 3: the trail today as Kamala Harris steps away from the

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Speaker 3: rallies to stop down for a couple of interviews, one

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Speaker 3: on NBC News, the other Telemundo, and it coincides. This

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Speaker 3: is not an accident, of course, kayleie the decisions that

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Speaker 3: are made at this stage of the game. We are

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Speaker 3: two weeks out, two weeks from today. We know for

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Speaker 3: a fact that Kamala Harris is trying hard to appeal

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Speaker 3: to young black men, to young Latinos, and this has

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Speaker 3: really become not only a gender gap, but a big

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Speaker 3: age gap in this campaign.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, and Donald Trump is trying to court some of

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Speaker 2: these voters as well, which is why we saw him

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Speaker 2: holding a Latino focused roundtable in Florida earlier today. So

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Speaker 2: it's certainly a key demographic, which is why we're paying

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Speaker 2: such close attention to the pulling around this, including one

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Speaker 2: that just hit yesterday from Voto Latino that looks specifically

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Speaker 2: at the battleground states and finds sixty four percent of

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Speaker 2: support among the Latino vote for Harris thirty one percent

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Speaker 2: for Trump. But there's an interesting geographic breakdown here that

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Speaker 2: we want to get into. Is this voting block, like

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Speaker 2: all others, is not a monolith. So let's dig into

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Speaker 2: the details now with Maria Theresa Kumar. She is VOT

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Speaker 2: Latino President and CEO, joining us here on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 2: Maria Theresa, welcome, it's great to have you. It's noteworthy

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Speaker 2: to look at how the numbers are different depending on

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Speaker 2: which battleground state we're looking at. In Michigan, for example,

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Speaker 2: sixty two percent of Latino respondents VO support for Harris

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Speaker 2: in Pennsylvania, that number is seventy seven percent at sixty

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Speaker 2: six in Arizona. How are you looking at the geographic

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Speaker 2: question here?

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Speaker 9: That's the right question to ask because oftentimes the polls

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Speaker 9: are national and we want to look specifically on what

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Speaker 9: is mobilizing voters. Where I will share with you, we

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Speaker 9: have never seen such enthusiasm by Latino voters or a

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Speaker 9: Democratic candidate as we're seeing in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is actually

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Speaker 9: in the pack at seventy seven percent. To give you

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Speaker 9: an idea, in twenty twenty Biden, when you looked at

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Speaker 9: generational divide among Latinos, he was at seventy percent and

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Speaker 9: really didn't break that fever among young voters. So she's

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Speaker 9: really pulling ahead. The place that we're finding that she

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Speaker 9: is neck to neck right now in the Latino community

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Speaker 9: is in Nevada, and I can share with you, Kayley,

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Speaker 9: we were in Nevada over the weekend with partners in SCIU.

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Speaker 9: We were door knocking, We were listening to the voters,

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Speaker 9: and what we keep hearing is that for them, housing

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Speaker 9: is the number one issue. To really appreciate it, Kaille,

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Speaker 9: we were talking to one voter one potential voter, and

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Speaker 9: he said, look, I am twenty four years old. I

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Speaker 9: was three years ago I was paying seven hundred dollars

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Speaker 9: in rent and now I'm paying over twelve hundred dollars

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Speaker 9: in rent and my wages have not come up. So

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Speaker 9: any way that the campaign can talk more about the

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Speaker 9: fact that on their platform they are thinking of increasing

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Speaker 9: three million individual low income housings under her platform, that's important.

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Speaker 9: Talking about twenty five thousand dollars for first time home buyers,

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Speaker 9: you're talking about someone in a different socioeconomic gap. It's

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Speaker 9: not the one. That's not the message for young people.

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Speaker 9: And I will share with you the biggest potential that

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Speaker 9: both candidates have is like, how do you mobilize the

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Speaker 9: young voter in the African americ community, young voter in

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Speaker 9: the Latino community, Because it was the young voter in

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Speaker 9: Arizona and in Nevada in twenty twenty two that basically

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Speaker 9: secured a Democratic Senate because they were the last ones

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Speaker 9: to vote. They were low propensity information voters. And so

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Speaker 9: with less than twenty days out, now's the time to

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Speaker 9: really for the candidates to talk to these voters specifically

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Speaker 9: about the issues and try to break through that noise.

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Speaker 3: Maria, I want to go back to April for a

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Speaker 3: little context on your poll. As Kaylee mentioned, you found

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Speaker 3: sixty four percent of respondents support Harris in the Swing States,

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Speaker 3: thirty one percent Trump, five percent third party. In April, again,

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Speaker 3: she had sixty four percent, Joe Biden had forty eight percent,

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump right around where he is now, he had

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Speaker 3: thirty three and there was a twelve percent reading for

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Speaker 3: our FKA Junior. Our FK is out of the race,

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Speaker 3: but it takes more than his votes to get Kamala

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Speaker 3: Harris to sixty four percent. When you see an instant

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Speaker 3: reaction like that by changing the top of the ticket,

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Speaker 3: what is it about Kamala Harris that appeals to this community?

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Speaker 9: Joe, you're incredibly astute. It was the first time that

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Speaker 9: we had seen Latino voters actually shifting from Donald Trump

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Speaker 9: to Kamala Harris. And one of the things that we

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Speaker 9: were able to find in our Polly and our and

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Speaker 9: our surveys was that these individuals her story appealed to them.

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Speaker 4: She is the.

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Speaker 9: First candidate that doesn't have to be explained what it

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Speaker 9: means to have parents who have immigrant roots to navigate

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Speaker 9: America as a multicultural, bicultural woman, and that in itself resonated.

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Speaker 9: She also doesn't have to speak about the virtues of

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Speaker 9: abortion access. What most folks don't realize is that in

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Speaker 9: the Latino community, while the average age of a white

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Speaker 9: voter is forty five years old, the average age of

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Speaker 9: a Latino voter is thirty one. These are individuals, specifically

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Speaker 9: women that are in their prime of their reproductive lives

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Speaker 9: and they want to make sure that they have access

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Speaker 9: to abortion care. So once she got on top of

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Speaker 9: the ticket, they believed her when she said that she

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Speaker 9: wanted to codify Roe versus Wade. In all our surveys

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Speaker 9: that we find the number one issue is housing, the

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Speaker 9: second issue is abortion access. And so in a place

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Speaker 9: where you have ballot initiatives in Nevada, in Arizona, even

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Speaker 9: in Florida, that is going to be I believe a

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Speaker 9: stealth weapon in mobilizing a lot of these folks that

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Speaker 9: might be soft right now, but that recognize that at

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Speaker 9: the end of the day, it's going to be about

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Speaker 9: abortion access in their local state.

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Speaker 2: Well, Marie teria'sa Donald Trump has made attempts to tie

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Speaker 2: some of these issues to the wider issue of immigration, suggesting,

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Speaker 2: for example, that the flood of migrants that have come

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Speaker 2: to the US or crowding out hospitals making it harder

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Speaker 2: for people to access healthcare, that they're bringing up housing costs.

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Speaker 2: Although economically, of course, that has been disputed, and there

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Speaker 2: is a massive question about what the economic impact of

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Speaker 2: mass deportation of millions of people who have not come

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Speaker 2: here through legal means would mean for the US economy.

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Speaker 2: What is the right way to approach the immigration question

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Speaker 2: for Latino voters? What do you hear from them?

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Speaker 4: I think we might have lost our connection.

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Speaker 2: All right, Well, it is something to consider, and we've

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Speaker 2: had many conversations about this in recent weeks. Show the

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Speaker 2: economics potentially of the kind of abortion policy Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: or immigration mass deportation policy that Donald Trump is suggesting,

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Speaker 2: what that would do to the workforce and labor supply

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Speaker 2: and some of these exact states that we're talking about

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Speaker 2: that do rely on undocumented labor to get a lot

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Speaker 2: of work done.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Maria is back with us speaking from

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Speaker 3: vot Latina where she's president and CEO. Maria, if you

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Speaker 3: can hear us, I wonder your thoughts on these economic

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Speaker 3: impacts that Kaylie's talking about.

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Speaker 9: Well, I think he most folks when they hear mass deportation,

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Speaker 9: oftentimes they don't realize that policy itself would just ravage

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Speaker 9: local communities. When you see the contributions of immigrants, whither

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Speaker 9: they are on document or here with papers, they are

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Speaker 9: a massive contributors to our social security, they are massive

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Speaker 9: contributors to our treasury, coffers at the lake, at the

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Speaker 9: state and local and national level. So that is kind

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Speaker 9: of like a non starter, and it should be a

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Speaker 9: non starter for every single American. My concern around the

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Speaker 9: mass deportation though, is that even if it's not done

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Speaker 9: in an official act, there will be plenty of folks

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Speaker 9: that follow Donald Trump on the extreme that basically says, okay,

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Speaker 9: I got a wink in a nod that folks that

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Speaker 9: are that seem undocumented can be targets for racial harassment.

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Speaker 9: And we saw that extensively, sadly when Donald Trump was

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Speaker 9: at the White House with folks. Remember the l Passo massacre.

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Speaker 9: It basically took a tweet from the president from the

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Speaker 9: then president to encourage someone to jump in their car

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Speaker 9: and drive ten hours and killed twenty three innocent Americans

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Speaker 9: who happened to be of Mexican descent. But I do

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Speaker 9: think that their opportunity on the Paris site is to

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Speaker 9: divorce what's happening at the border and address the individuals

437
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 9: that have been here for ten twenty years, that have

438
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 9: been paying their taxes, that still don't have proper documentation

439
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 9: because the system is fundamentally broken. All our polling shows

440
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 9: is that when you focus specifically on that domestic policy issue,

441
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 9: not only does it mobilize and encourage voters in the

442
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,719
Speaker 9: Latino community to vote, but it's also an essential issue

443
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 9: among white, independent moderate voters. And sometimes people ask me

444
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 9: why is that. I said, well, that independent moderate white

445
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 9: voter might have a business where this undocumented person has

446
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 9: been working with them side by side for decades, or

447
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 9: they could be a spouse. And so it's really recognizing

448
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 9: that we have to have a real conversation after the

449
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 9: election around what it means to be American and what

450
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,199
Speaker 9: it means to have immigrants with among us, because it

451
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 9: is America's secret sauce. It is the reason why we

452
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 9: have a competitive advantage.

453
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 8: Across the world.

454
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 9: And you know, Kayley, you don't have to take my

455
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 9: word for it. When you look at election interference that's

456
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 9: coming from foreign from foreign folks. It is around the

457
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 9: issue of immigrants and race, something that was widely underreported.

458
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:57,439
Speaker 9: What happened in Springfield, Ohio where you saw bomb threats

459
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 9: that we're targeting local high schools in local schools, a

460
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 9: good quarter of them came from from abroad. Those phone

461
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 9: calls were coming from foreign interference, And it makes you

462
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 9: It begs the question, why do folks want to disrupt

463
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,120
Speaker 9: the one of the basic economic engines of our country,

464
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 9: That is that the contributions of immigrants to our economy

465
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 9: every single day. And so I would encourage us to

466
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 9: have that conversation post election, But I also think that

467
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 9: it's vital for our economy to understand the contributions that

468
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 9: these groups make every single day to our country.

469
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 2: It's the reason we have just about a minute left here.

470
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 2: But if there's going to be real immigration reform, I

471
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: think we all know a lot of that has to

472
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 2: come from Congress. Are you seeing the same kind of

473
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 2: patterns in the down ballot races as you're seeing in

474
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 2: the presidential race among Latino voters right now?

475
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 9: So it's really interesting, even in April, if you look

476
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 9: at our stuff in April and April, Democrats were overwhelmingly

477
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 9: winning in the and in the down ballots, and so

478
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,160
Speaker 9: it says that there that the Latino community really does

479
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 9: espouse a lot of democratic platforms, but they were very

480
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 9: soft on the top of the ticket candidate, and so

481
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 9: this is going to be very much neck to neck.

482
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 9: I am curious to see what happens in the Senate

483
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 9: because that is absolutely one that no one knows. You

484
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,640
Speaker 9: have test really having a hard time, I think putting

485
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 9: it over the top. But is there going to be

486
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 9: wiggle room where Colin Alred takes it away in Texas?

487
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 9: And if he does, it's going to because of the

488
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 9: Latino vote, and it's going to be because of the

489
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 9: youth vote in Texas.

490
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 4: Maria comes see us again.

491
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 3: She's president and CEO of Voto Latino, an important voice

492
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 3: in this campaign. Maria, Teresa Kumara, thank you so much

493
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 3: for joining on Ballots of Power. The Fastest show in

494
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 3: Politics continues as we turn our attention to the polymarket

495
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 3: in crypto. Kayleie, an important conversation coming up next. We've

496
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 3: got a lot going on today here on Bloomberg TV

497
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 3: and Radio YEP.

498
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 2: The chairman of the CFTC Roston Benham will be with

499
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 2: us as he participates in the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum.

500
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 2: That's straight ahead here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

501
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

502
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppocarplay and then

503
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 1: Proudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

504
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

505
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 3: Two weeks to go as we watch not only the polls,

506
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 3: but interestingly the poly market and what people are betting

507
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 3: on here, what Wall Street thinks in the amount of

508
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 3: money that at least some traders are willing to put

509
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,120
Speaker 3: on the outcome of this election.

510
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 4: Kayley, it's already happening.

511
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 3: Americans can legally wager millions of dollars on this campaign.

512
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 4: But we've been reminding.

513
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 3: Our audience, as we've heard from a lot of smart

514
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 3: people on this program, that it takes very little to

515
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 3: manipulate the outcome of a betting market like this. One

516
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 3: big wager can skew this one way or the other,

517
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 3: so it may not be worth comparing.

518
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 4: It to a poll.

519
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is a concern that the Commodity's Future

520
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: Training Commission has raised about these politically oriented events contracts

521
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 2: in the way in which these things could be skewed,

522
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: but seef toce to this point, not one in court.

523
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 2: As you mentioned, two court rulings have allowed these things

524
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 2: to be trading with two weeks ago and till the election.

525
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 2: And it's to the chair of the CFTC we turn

526
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 2: to next. He is joining us from global headquarters in

527
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: New York where he is taking part in Bloomberg's global

528
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 2: regulatory for him and it is kind to spend a

529
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 2: few minutes with us here on balance of Power on

530
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Rust and Benham, mister chairman, thank

531
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 2: you for being here. You have repeatedly said that the

532
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 2: CFTC should not be an elections cop So what is

533
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 2: your recourse going forwards? We are already seeing this happening.

534
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 2: What do you expect could actually change in terms of

535
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 2: how this kind of betting activity could influence American elections?

536
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 10: Kayley and Joe, Thanks, it's great to be with you.

537
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 10: And you know, as you said, a court district court

538
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 10: in DC made a decision just over a month ago,

539
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 10: and we did appeal to the Court of appeals for

540
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 10: a stay on the actual contracts. Both were denied. We

541
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 10: respect those decisions and you know, we will regulate those

542
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:59,479
Speaker 10: markets as we can as best we can. We are

543
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 10: appealing the actual case on its merits. What we appealed

544
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 10: for was a stay on the listing of the contracts

545
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 10: and trading. That was refused. But we still are going

546
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 10: to challenge the legal arguments on its merits and we'll

547
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 10: see what happens there. That will take some time, but

548
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 10: in the meantime, you know, we have registered entities, a

549
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 10: number of them, who are listing these contracts. We're going

550
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 10: to monitor the markets, We're going to surveil the markets.

551
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 10: We're going to do everything we do that we typically

552
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 10: do with registrants, whether it's the brokers, the exchanges, the

553
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 10: data that we collect. And my position hasn't changed. I've

554
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 10: said this many times. The position of the Commission has

555
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 10: actually been pretty consistent for the better part of a

556
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 10: decade that we don't believe listing event contracts on political

557
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 10: elections is legal, but you know, while we have this

558
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 10: ongoing legal challenge, will allow them, and we're going to

559
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 10: do what we can to protect the integrity of the markets.

560
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 10: As you mentioned in the beginning, This does pull us

561
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 10: into being an election cop. Whether or not there's manipulation

562
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 10: and fraud, you know, remains to be seen. But we

563
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 10: will monitor markets, will take tips or any information we

564
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 10: get from the general public, and will pursue any action

565
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 10: as we do in any part of our markets.

566
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 3: Well, so, mister chairman, you've got a little problem here

567
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 3: that you never asked for. And I wonder if you

568
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 3: could put a finer point on your ability to detect

569
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 3: fraud in this system and the powers or authorities that

570
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 3: you and your agency has to combat them.

571
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 4: How do you go about this?

572
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 10: Yeah, Joe, it's a good question. And you know, we

573
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 10: have typical regulatory authorities over registrants. As I said, you know,

574
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 10: we get to register the exchanges and the brokers, the individuals.

575
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 10: We get a sense of how they conduct their business,

576
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 10: and we're able to ask questions and do examinations, collect

577
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 10: data to monitor trading patterns. And I think really that

578
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 10: gets to the heart of your question in terms of

579
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 10: anomalist trading patterns, in seeing what the data gives us.

580
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 10: So much of our enforcement program across the board and

581
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,479
Speaker 10: in this space and traditional derivatives contracts is driven actually

582
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 10: by information from the public and the market participants if

583
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 10: they observe anomalies in trading or positions that may be

584
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 10: skewed off of you know, sort of a supply demand

585
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 10: price discovery. So well, we're going to treat these products

586
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 10: in this current state we are right now as we

587
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 10: would treat any other product. Obviously, you know, with elections

588
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 10: being the underlying reference here, it is new for us

589
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 10: to examine. But we're going to use the same tools

590
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 10: and the same expertise that we've brought to derivative markets

591
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 10: and commodity markets for decades. And you know, if we

592
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 10: do see something or if we hear about something, we

593
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 10: will pursue it. In the meantime, you know, we'll continue

594
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,479
Speaker 10: to vigorously fight the case in court and see what

595
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 10: the outcome is and the appellate court. We have seen

596
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 10: a fair amount of members of Congress weigh in on

597
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 10: this publicly. I have had a number of conversations too,

598
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 10: and I think there's a little bit of consternation from

599
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 10: some not all, about what this means. And we've seen

600
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,959
Speaker 10: a broad listing of these contracts across just control of

601
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 10: one body of the Congress, whether it's the House or

602
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 10: the Senate. So these contracts will continue to grow and

603
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 10: we're going to have to monitor them closely. And as

604
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 10: I said, and as you mentioned, you know, this is

605
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 10: not necessarily something I believe is are within our authority

606
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 10: or legal but we will do the job given the

607
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 10: court's decision.

608
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 2: Well, and of course some people will have their bets

609
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 2: proven write some won't. This election will have an outcome

610
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 2: in the future of the regulatory authority of the CFTC

611
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 2: could be influenced by election outcomes, not just at the

612
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,479
Speaker 2: presidential level, but also what you were just speaking to

613
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 2: the congressional level, whether or not you get to continue

614
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 2: forward as CFTC chair, Sir, do you expect any future

615
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:42,719
Speaker 2: chair will have the same struggles that you've had in

616
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 2: regard to regulating crypto, for example, without guaranteed delineated authority

617
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 2: given by Congress.

618
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 10: Yeah, I don't think anything is going to change for

619
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 10: my successors, whenever and whoever they may be. The fact

620
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 10: of the matter is a number of these tokens are

621
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 10: commodities under current law, and the CFTC is a derivatives regulator.

622
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 10: We don't regulate underlying cash markets, whether it's in the

623
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 10: agricultural space, the energy space, or the financial space. And

624
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 10: this is technology, this is disruption, this is a new

625
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 10: asset class. These things happen constantly over time, and I

626
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 10: think it's just we're at an inflection point. And as

627
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 10: you point out, Kayley, I've been sort of ringing the

628
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 10: bell for a number of years now because we've made

629
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 10: observations as the CFTC as chair myself about a growing market,

630
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 10: a market that's proven to be sustainable, a market that

631
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 10: has continued interest from both retail investors and institutional investors.

632
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 10: And when you have those ingredients, I think it's really

633
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 10: important that we react from a policy perspective. So we're

634
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 10: doing what we can with the tools that we have

635
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 10: at the CFTC, which is enforcement authority over fraud and manipulation.

636
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 10: But what we don't have over these underlying cash markets

637
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 10: is the traditional regulatory tools that we bring to traditional

638
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 10: derivatives markets. That's registration, that's surveillance, that's examination, that's governance requirements,

639
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 10: that's financial resource requirements, all of these components that have

640
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 10: made in my view, American capital markets the best and

641
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 10: the strongest in the world. We've seen a shift, I

642
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 10: think in the sentiment of Congress over the past call

643
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 10: it twelve months, certainly different than two or three years

644
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,399
Speaker 10: ago when I was first talking about this, and even

645
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 10: five or six years ago when this first became an

646
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 10: issue for the CFTC and I started having thoughts internally

647
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 10: and discussing it. But I do think as we get

648
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:33,320
Speaker 10: into a new administration, a new president, and a new Congress,

649
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 10: I think there's going to be an appetite given that

650
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 10: sustainability of the asset class and the desire from a

651
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 10: lot of retail and institutional investors to see a regulatory

652
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 10: structure around crypto.

653
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 2: Well, regulatory structure is one thing. Actual money to do

654
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 2: that work is another. Mister Chairman. If Congress does not

655
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 2: allow more allocation toward spending money in order to regulate crypto,

656
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,280
Speaker 2: how do you out the agency's resources to be dealing

657
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 2: with that still relatively nascent market and all of your

658
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 2: traditional obligations to traditional finance at the same time.

659
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's difficult. And you know, our markets are very

660
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 10: large at the derivative markets, they're global markets, trillion dollar markets,

661
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 10: and huge responsibility in terms of oversight and financial resilience,

662
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 10: market resilience and financial stability, and that has been a

663
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 10: point of frustration for me because we have a lot

664
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 10: of new entrants in the space, in the crypto space

665
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 10: that are coming to be registered as futures brokers and exchanges,

666
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 10: but also this underlying market that is consuming a lot

667
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,919
Speaker 10: of our enforcement bandwidth. So it is a challenge. We'll,

668
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 10: you know, use the resources we have we always have

669
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 10: as an agency. Certainly, I think if there is new

670
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 10: legislation coming down the road, I've vigorously advocated that any

671
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 10: new authority would have to be paired with resources. But

672
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 10: it does put the agency in a little bit of

673
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 10: a difficult position where we are stretched thin you know,

674
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 10: we're constantly dealing with new markets, new asset classes, new participants,

675
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 10: and that is, you know, a product of growing market.

676
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 10: It's a product of increased retail demand and institutional demand,

677
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 10: and I think that's a positive thing generally speaking. But

678
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 10: I think it's important from a DC and policy perspective

679
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 10: that we understand what is changing, how markets are evolving,

680
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 10: and that the agencies evolve with markets. And that's not

681
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 10: only from a personnel and expertise standpoint, that's an authority standpoint,

682
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 10: and ultimately, to the point of your question, that is

683
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 10: also a resource issue that we have to address as well.

684
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 3: Well, mister chairman, it's great to have you with us

685
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 3: today on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Speaking from the Crypto

686
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:43,760
Speaker 3: Frontier Chairman Ross Benham Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

687
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:50,359
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

688
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud

689
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 1: Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

690
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

691
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

692
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 4: So how about the nine weeks log?

693
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 3: That's what we're pointing to here, right? Why wait to

694
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 3: talk about it? Bruce Melman, isn't everyone woke up Sunday

695
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 3: and said what this six chart?

696
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 4: Sunday?

697
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:20,280
Speaker 3: Then I started thinking, wait a minute, how many stages

698
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 3: of grief are there? It turns out there five denial,

699
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:32,479
Speaker 3: then anger, bargaining, followed by depression and.

700
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 4: At last acceptance.

701
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 3: And it kind of frames what's going to happen between

702
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 3: November sixth and January sixth. Of course, when the votes

703
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 3: are certified here in Washington, that's a day that meant

704
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 3: nothing to anyone before twenty twenty.

705
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 4: Now it means a lot. And if you walk through

706
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 4: the sixth chart.

707
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 3: Sunday by Bruce Melman, it'll give you a sense of

708
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 3: what we're in for.

709
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:57,479
Speaker 11: Here.

710
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 3: We've talked about one hundred and sixty five lawsuits that

711
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 3: have already been filed. Let's bring him in right now.

712
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 3: He's partner at Melman Consulting, author of the Bruce Melman's

713
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 3: Age of Disruption sub stack. If you haven't subscribed, you

714
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 3: should so, Bruce, you got everybody upset over the weekend.

715
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 3: How bumpy are these nine weeks going to be?

716
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 11: Well? That remains to be seen for sure.

717
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 12: And I think the point Laura made with you a

718
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 12: moment ago is important.

719
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 11: It's a three ring circus.

720
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 12: And even if the presidential proves to be less dramatic

721
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 12: than we all expect it might be, it's a very

722
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 12: high likelihood we're not going to know who controls the

723
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 12: House of Representatives and potentially whether there was a red

724
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 12: wave or whether there's a blue check of balance in

725
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 12: the House on a second Trump term were he to win,

726
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 12: until some time in December. So the thesis is for

727
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 12: those of us who feel like the Wednesday after the

728
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 12: election will be the day of relief where at least

729
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 12: we have certainty that may be the end of the

730
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 12: column and the real beginning of the storm.

731
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 4: Well, how true as you right?

732
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 3: Getting past November fifth will reduce some uncertainty, but the

733
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 3: intensity picks up during the subsequent nine weeks slog as

734
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 3: we mentioned during this fraught window, Bruce writes, we'll lead

735
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 3: to count the votes, conduct any recounts, certify results in

736
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:22,400
Speaker 3: state capitals potentially roiled by protests, all amids, partisan paranoia

737
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 3: and allegations of Malfeasan's intense litigation and disinformation, a deluge

738
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:31,720
Speaker 3: accelerated by foreign adversaries makes me want to go back home, Bruce,

739
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:34,760
Speaker 3: But that is, of course what we're dealing with here.

740
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 3: I want to seize on a couple of these, Starting

741
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 3: with counting the votes your first chart, When might we

742
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 3: know who won? How about the top of the ticket.

743
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 3: It took us until Saturday last time. And the conventional

744
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 3: wisdom is if Donald Trump wins, we might know that night.

745
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 3: If Kamala Harris wins, we might wait till the end

746
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 3: of the week.

747
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 4: Is that how you see it?

748
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:54,280
Speaker 11: You know? Sure?

749
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 12: At least one of the biggest questions is whether the

750
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:05,280
Speaker 12: polling has figuredured it out now. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

751
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 12: In twenty sixteen, they underestimated the Trump vote by about

752
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 12: eight points on average. In twenty twenty, they underestimated the

753
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 12: Trump vote by about four points. The polls are all

754
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 12: too close to call, within the margin of error, although

755
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 12: Trump has crept to where he is slightly leading, still

756
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 12: within the margin of error, So it could be either

757
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 12: way and the polling would be right unless the polling's

758
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 12: off again by those sort of same amounts in the

759
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,919
Speaker 12: industrial Midwest. We may then, as in twenty twenty, having

760
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 12: a call by the Associated Press.

761
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 11: They called a day after the election. They called it

762
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:37,240
Speaker 11: for Biden.

763
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 12: Obviously, Trump contested it and continues to contest it, notwithstanding

764
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 12: a lack of evidence in court to cause anything to

765
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 12: get reversed. In twenty sixteen, it took four days after

766
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 12: the election to come to resolution.

767
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 3: You just mentioned something important for the benefit of our audience.

768
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 4: Here I poddled you.

769
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 12: By the way I reversed sixteen to twenty. They were

770
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 12: four into twenty twenty and one in twenty.

771
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 3: Seve understood, yes, that's right, And it took us until

772
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 3: Saturday right to learn about Joe Biden. So are we

773
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 3: basing this on the AP call? Is that the voice

774
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 3: of credibility, Bruce?

775
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 11: It is a credible voice, it's not a voice of authority.

776
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 11: So you know I'm old enough to recall.

777
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,360
Speaker 12: In twenty twenty, the AP called it for Bush, then

778
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 12: they called it for nobody, Then they called it for Gore,

779
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 12: then they called it for nobody. In two thousand days later, Yeah,

780
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:31,240
Speaker 12: two thousand we were done.

781
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 11: That said. AP hasn't had.

782
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 12: To reverse the call in the last multiple elections. They're

783
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 12: careful to not want to make a call until such

784
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 12: time as the remaining votes that are outstanding based upon

785
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 12: who you know, who they are, the registrations and the

786
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 12: counties give them enough confidence and enough insight to be

787
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 12: able to appoint. So I personally tend to feel like

788
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 12: once the AP has made a call, that's if it's

789
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 12: not quite money to the bank, it's pretty highly reliable.

790
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 4: Well that's right.

791
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 3: It's about as close as you're going to get until

792
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 3: they're really done counting here. And you wonder how careful

793
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 3: they are going to be after last time, Bruce, are

794
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 3: going to be beaten our Thanksgiving Turkey wondering when the

795
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 3: AP is going to show up here to your point

796
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 3: in your own six slide presentation, here, you're six charts.

797
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 3: There are no trusted referees, which I think is what

798
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 3: we're getting at here. You also point out recounts are

799
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 3: rare and they rarely reverse outcomes. And therefore, back to

800
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 3: our litigation tsunami that you talk about, will this election

801
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 3: be decided in the courts?

802
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 12: You know it could be decided in the courts, though.

803
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 12: A recount is they've finished all the ballot, all the

804
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 12: official ballots, and then it's just a matter of did

805
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 12: you miscount it? And there's never been a presidential state

806
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 12: that has been flipped changed as a result of a recount.

807
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 12: There was one Senate, one governorship, one state auditor.

808
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:56,800
Speaker 11: But it's if you're not if it's.

809
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 12: Not within just a few votes, it's just not going

810
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 12: to get turned over or famously, the Arizona Republican Party

811
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 12: hired a group that calls itself the cyber Ninjas to

812
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:11,439
Speaker 12: audit the vote in twenty twenty where Biden edged out Trump,

813
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 12: and they came back and Biden's margin had slightly.

814
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 11: Grown in edging out Trump.

815
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 12: So once you're at the recount point, you know the

816
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 12: partisans take some hope that something will.

817
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 11: Be found that will be profound.

818
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 12: You know, even in two thousand with Bush v. Gore,

819
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 12: ultimately the conclusion in the US Supreme Court was, you.

820
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:30,720
Speaker 11: Did the count You're done counting.

821
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 12: You can't keep recounting because every time you run the

822
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 12: ballots through the machines, some chads fall off. So you're

823
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 12: changing it by recounting and recounting and recounting. You're done that.

824
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 12: All said, Look, we've seen there's lawsuits. Democrats are trying

825
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 12: to keep Cornell West off the ballot. They're trying to

826
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 12: make sure Robert F. Kennedy Junior doesn't get off the ballot.

827
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 12: Republicans are trying to question about voting roles and about

828
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 12: you know, whether you can trust machines.

829
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 11: And this is a full lawyer employment Act.

830
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 3: It's gonna be Kamala Harris certifying these results. Isn't it

831
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 3: playing the role of Mike Fence this time around?

832
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 11: I mean it's a ceremonial role.

833
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 12: So no, she doesn't have she won't be able to

834
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 12: make a decision that changes anything. She's there as the

835
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 12: presiding Officer of the Senate. But in legislation that got

836
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 12: passed in twenty twenty two, the Electoral count Reform Act.

837
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 12: They made a crystal clear that what President Trump asked

838
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 12: former Vice President.

839
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 11: Pence to do and Pence wouldn't do.

840
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 12: You can't just say I've made the decision that I

841
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 12: won and my boss won.

842
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 11: You can't do that.

843
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 4: No, you're correct, Bruce.

844
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:43,240
Speaker 3: But you also know how many people don't care, didn't

845
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,399
Speaker 3: read when that happened. We've talked about it a lot

846
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 3: on this program. And then the optics are what they are,

847
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 3: and perception becomes reality. Right, is your biggest hope in

848
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,319
Speaker 3: our last minute here that we got a landslide one

849
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 3: way or the other?

850
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 12: Well, sure, but you know that also would be attached

851
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 12: to add Will mccraven throwing in as a third party

852
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 12: and getting ninety percent of the vote.

853
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 11: So my biggest hopes.

854
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 12: Are already out the window. But I certainly think the

855
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 12: worst thing for democracy would be in that nine week period,

856
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 12: added mistrust, added allegations, things that can't be proven, candidates

857
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 12: who simply don't accept when they lose that they lost,

858
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 12: and god forbid going to a Congress that decides we're

859
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:28,720
Speaker 12: not going to certify because we don't like what happened,

860
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,280
Speaker 12: even though we don't have actual proof that anything else happened.

861
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 4: Can't wait for November.

862
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 3: Bruce, come back and talk to us after we survive

863
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 3: the election and we get in the throes of the

864
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 3: nine weeks log.

865
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 4: Check out his sub stack.

866
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 3: If you listen to this program, I think you'll probably

867
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 3: enjoy it. Bruce Melman, Partner Melman Consulting. I'm Joe Matthew

868
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 3: in Washington. We're going to go to ground coming up

869
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 3: in the swing state of Pennsylvania.

870
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg.

871
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ketch

872
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:04,320
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Epocarplay and Android

873
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

874
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:16,480
Speaker 3: Coming to you live from our Washington, DC bureau every

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00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 3: day here, but our eyes, of course are on just

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00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 3: about everywhere else. As the candidates settle in for the

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00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:23,959
Speaker 3: next two weeks, and they've been there for the last

879
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 3: two weeks, largely in the swing states, none more important

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00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 3: than Pennsylvania, and we talk about the closing arguments for

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00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 3: the presidential candidates. It's closing argument time for all of

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00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:38,319
Speaker 3: the candidates. That includes those for Senate and this is

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00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 3: one of the most closely watched Senate races, and I believe,

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00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 3: by far the most expensive Senate race in the country

885
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 3: right now. Everyone freaked out yesterday when the Cook Political

886
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:53,280
Speaker 3: Report weighed in and move this race between the Democratic

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00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 3: incumbent Bob Casey against Republican challenger David McCormick from Lean's

888
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 3: Democratic to toss up. This is as close as it gets,

889
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 3: prompting a whole new round of questions about tickets splitting,

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00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:12,440
Speaker 3: which most of the experts we talked to here on

891
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 3: Bloomberg don't see happening in Pennsylvania. As for the closing arguments,

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00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 3: Dave McCormick out with his This is the closing ad

893
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 3: of the campaign, which he spoke directly to the camera

894
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:28,800
Speaker 3: to record at West Point.

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00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 4: Let's watch and listen.

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00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 13: The United States Military Academy, West Point. It gave me

897
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 13: the code I live by duty, honor country. I'm Dave McCormick.

898
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 13: Our country is stuck and we've got to make a change.

899
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 13: Bob Casey's had eighteen years and he's never made a difference.

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00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 3: He said, eighteen years and he's never made a difference.

901
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 3: The closing argument there from David McCormick. Now, I'll bring

902
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 3: you back to something I mentioned a little bit earlier,

903
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 3: and that's the early vote.

904
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 4: This is a big deal.

905
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 3: Fifteen million Americans have already decided who to vote for,

906
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:11,240
Speaker 3: and in the case of Pennsylvania, thousands have already chosen

907
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:15,839
Speaker 3: between David McCormick and Bob Casey. In fact, we learn

908
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 3: now among the few states, we can learn a lot

909
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 3: in Pennsylvania, among the few states that track mail ballots

910
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,919
Speaker 3: by party registration, here's what we know. More than five

911
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 3: hundred eighty thousand Democrats have already returned their mail ballots

912
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:34,919
Speaker 3: in Pennsylvania, compared with two hundred and fifty four thousand Republicans.

913
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 3: This is why we keep hearing. And remember Pennsylvania doesn't

914
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 3: start counting these till seven o'clock in the morning on

915
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 3: election Day.

916
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:45,399
Speaker 4: They're putting them all on a.

917
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 3: Shelf somewhere deep in the safe waiting for election day.

918
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:52,440
Speaker 3: That's why you will not likely have a call in Pennsylvania.

919
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 3: That's why it will probably look like Donald Trump is

920
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 3: winning early on, and he may be, but if he's not,

921
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 3: that could change as the mail in votes are counted.

922
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 3: Now This is where we start our conversation with an

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00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 3: expert in Pennsylvania politics.

924
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 4: Michael Berkman is with US.

925
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:11,240
Speaker 3: Director of the mcartney Institute for Democracy and Political Science,

926
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,279
Speaker 3: professor at penn State University, co host of the Democracy

927
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:15,879
Speaker 3: Works podcast.

928
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 4: Michael, Welcome back to Bloomberg.

929
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:21,240
Speaker 3: It's great to see with everything that I just mentioned,

930
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 3: knowing that it doesn't get closer than this. How many

931
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 3: days are you going to wait for this race to

932
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 3: be called in Pennsylvania?

933
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 8: Well, you know it could. You're correct that this could

934
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 8: take a while because the mail in ballots are going

935
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 8: to come in heavily democratic as a did last year.

936
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 8: I mean you said something like five hundred thousand. It's

937
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,720
Speaker 8: actually up to six hundred and fifty thousand Democratic ballots.

938
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 8: I've already been heard in three hundred thousand Republican ballots.

939
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:51,799
Speaker 8: But it may be quicker than last year because improvements

940
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:55,799
Speaker 8: have been made, some money has been invested in better machinery,

941
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 8: and the hopes that Philadelphia and Algany County is in particular,

942
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:04,360
Speaker 8: get those mail ballots counted quicker. You're correct the issue

943
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:08,240
Speaker 8: with fury and they can't open them until seven am.

944
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 3: That's right, So give me your read. Let's go to

945
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 3: ground in Pennsylvania. Because I'm sitting down here in Washington

946
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:17,720
Speaker 3: with a lot of people who think they know what's

947
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 3: going on in your state. You can talk to us

948
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 3: about the presidential race. They're tied at the hip, it

949
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,880
Speaker 3: seems to the Senate race. Is this a one or

950
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 3: two point race in your view? Like the polls are showing.

951
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 8: It feels very close, and I have no reason to

952
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 8: believe otherwise. And I'm not surprised to see the Casey

953
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 8: McCormick race getting closer. You know, McCormick didn't have quite

954
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 8: the name recognition that Casey does. Casey is quite the

955
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 8: well known name in Pennsylvania, so not surprising that he

956
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:48,359
Speaker 8: had a big lead early on. But I think we're

957
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 8: seeing it converge closer to where the presidential election is,

958
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:56,439
Speaker 8: and I suspect we'll see that in other states as well,

959
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 8: where senate candidates and the presidential.

960
00:50:58,640 --> 00:50:59,880
Speaker 4: Race seem to be diverged.

961
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 8: Because you made an important point at the top, and

962
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 8: that is just simply not a lot of split ticket

963
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:05,760
Speaker 8: voting anymore.

964
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 4: So talk to me about that. That's the narrative.

965
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 3: You know, everybody's going to leave stuff blank, and we

966
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 3: remember what happened in Georgia, and we're seeing wild potential

967
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 3: for tickets splitting in Arizona.

968
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 4: Why is Pennsylvania an exception?

969
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:22,799
Speaker 8: Well, I mean spliketts vote is split ticket voting could

970
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 8: occur just in you know, ten thousand votes, and it's

971
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:28,000
Speaker 8: going to make a huge difference. So even if there's

972
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 8: not a lot of it, it could still make a

973
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 8: big difference. But just looking back at twenty twenty, we

974
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:34,760
Speaker 8: simply didn't see a lot of split ticket voting between

975
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 8: the Senate races and where Biden was. Now you're gonna

976
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:40,239
Speaker 8: have It's going to be different in states where you

977
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 8: really have flawed candidate. It's I think Arizona is probably

978
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 8: in that category. But McCormick is McCormick's a strong candidate,

979
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 8: as is Casey, So I expect it's going to trap

980
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:52,879
Speaker 8: pretty closely to what we see in the presidential race,

981
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 8: which is very close.

982
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:58,359
Speaker 3: It's really interesting when you talk about Pennsylvania and people

983
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 3: remember the old James Carvill line that you've got you know, Philadelphia,

984
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and Alabama in between or something like that, something

985
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 3: like how how nimble have these candidates been in addressing

986
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,799
Speaker 3: the very different types of communities and demographics throughout the state.

987
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 3: We talk about it like it's one place, but it's not.

988
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 8: No, it's not. And you know, the old Carville line

989
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 8: has a lot of truth to it. There is a

990
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 8: lot of areas of Pennsylvania which are quite rural or

991
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:27,359
Speaker 8: small towns or you know, older industrial areas, and that's

992
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:30,319
Speaker 8: what Carville was referring to. But you know, in my view,

993
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 8: this election actually decided in the suburbs outside outside Philadelphia

994
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 8: and Pittsburgh, and suburbs are much more competitive right now.

995
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:43,799
Speaker 8: Choice is a large issue in these suburbs, especially with

996
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:47,840
Speaker 8: the women voters. So I'm my eyes around Bucks County

997
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 8: and some of the suburban areas now. Having said that,

998
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 8: what we're seeing the candidates, do you know, Harris, as

999
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:57,840
Speaker 8: Biden did, is spending more time out in Republican areas

1000
00:52:57,920 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 8: just trying to cut those vote margins down. I think

1001
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:04,879
Speaker 8: that's a good strategy on her part. And McCormick as well,

1002
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 8: has been pretty much all over the state as far

1003
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 8: as I can see.

1004
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 3: So you're in state College, yeah, you drive fifty miles

1005
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 3: in any direction. Who's winning the lawn sign war?

1006
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:17,799
Speaker 6: Is it?

1007
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 4: Trump?

1008
00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 8: Oh? Without a doubt it's Trump. That's the Trump McCormick territory.

1009
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 8: Once you get outside of State College. I mean that

1010
00:53:24,239 --> 00:53:28,760
Speaker 8: part of Carvill's characterization of the state is absolutely correct.

1011
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,400
Speaker 8: You know, you get outside of states relatively blue and

1012
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 8: you're in a stee of red. But what I don't

1013
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:37,279
Speaker 8: think Carvill had quite right, you know, going back, what

1014
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:40,560
Speaker 8: is that in nineteen ninety two is that the suburbs

1015
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:43,320
Speaker 8: have become much more of a battleground within Pennsylvania.

1016
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 3: Tod the McDonald's stunt play because it was aimed at

1017
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:51,400
Speaker 3: the very area you're sitting in here, and people say, wait,

1018
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 3: he didn't really make anything. He was in there for

1019
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:56,839
Speaker 3: five minutes. They closed the restaurant. But those optics work

1020
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 3: for a lot of people, Professor.

1021
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 8: Do they?

1022
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 11: I don't know.

1023
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 8: I had visions of Michael Cocka's riding around in a

1024
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:05,760
Speaker 8: tank a little bit because.

1025
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 4: It was Oh man, you know I drew that comparison

1026
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:13,239
Speaker 4: in advance. You're the first person who said that, is

1027
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:15,480
Speaker 4: that what happened? He put on the helmet in your view.

1028
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:17,600
Speaker 11: Bit.

1029
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:20,399
Speaker 8: I mean, it seemed really incongruous to me. Donald Trump

1030
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:23,239
Speaker 8: working on a McDonald's. I mean, I know he likes McDonald's.

1031
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:26,480
Speaker 8: But who am I to say it could have been

1032
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 8: an effective stunt. He got certainly got a lot of

1033
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 8: play on it. I agree with you, it didn't get

1034
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,400
Speaker 8: it didn't get slammed down quite like Michael Decoccus did

1035
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 8: at the time.

1036
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:41,359
Speaker 3: But you see him shaking those fries. Ceci, he did

1037
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:44,640
Speaker 3: it like he meant it. Producer. Cec says stolen wage

1038
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:46,719
Speaker 3: worker valor professor.

1039
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 4: He didn't want to take the question on the minimum wage.

1040
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 4: Was that a missed opportunity?

1041
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 8: And that is part of it, isn't it. I mean,

1042
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 8: if you're going to do something like that, then it

1043
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 8: seems like that's the kind of issue that you would

1044
00:54:57,280 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 8: be prepared to really talk on. At least that's what

1045
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 8: people that work in McDonald's, that's probably what they're thinking about.

1046
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:12,279
Speaker 8: He also put extra salt on the fries, but that's different, different.

1047
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:15,880
Speaker 3: Well, he says he really loves the salts. That we

1048
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:18,839
Speaker 3: did learn that yesterday. You know one of the things

1049
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 3: that jumped off the page, Well, I guess on one

1050
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,120
Speaker 3: of them. We had fries in here. We talked about

1051
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 3: it so much the other day we couldn't help this

1052
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 3: is really interesting. Del Volpe op ed in the New

1053
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:33,720
Speaker 3: York Times. Of course, you know he's Harvard, he's working

1054
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:35,959
Speaker 3: with the campaign now, but he's running against the grain.

1055
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 4: And I wonder your thoughts on this.

1056
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 3: Among men eighteen to twenty nine, he writes, Harris's favorability

1057
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:45,120
Speaker 3: rating is forty four percent, seven points higher than Biden's

1058
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 3: and thirteen points higher than Donald Trump's.

1059
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:49,840
Speaker 4: Is the sample broken for young people?

1060
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 11: You know, it's.

1061
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:57,360
Speaker 8: The poli of young people. Is tough because when you

1062
00:55:57,400 --> 00:56:01,080
Speaker 8: start to read cross tabs within the national polls or

1063
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 8: even the state poles, you're dealing with pretty large margins

1064
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,919
Speaker 8: of errors. So, for example, the Harvard poll shows pretty

1065
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:10,759
Speaker 8: strong support for Harvard. I guess for Harris. I guess

1066
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 8: that's the pull you're mentioning, right, the vaultyople that Yes,

1067
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 8: that's right, that's right. Yeah, that's the pole you're mentioning.

1068
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:20,080
Speaker 8: So that's continuing to show strong support for Harris. I

1069
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:22,200
Speaker 8: go with that more than I do some of the

1070
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:25,960
Speaker 8: cross tabs. Having said that, I do think there are

1071
00:56:26,080 --> 00:56:30,080
Speaker 8: issues with younger men in particular and Kamala Harris, where

1072
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 8: Donald Trump seems to have particular strength there, and his

1073
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 8: clearly targeting a lot of his campaign towards them. The

1074
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 8: problem is they're very low propensity voters, so you're taking

1075
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 8: a risk that these people will turn out to vote.

1076
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 8: I mean, young men are probably the least likely group

1077
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:47,640
Speaker 8: of people to vote.

1078
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 4: Fascinating.

1079
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:51,400
Speaker 3: I'm really glad we got to spend some time with

1080
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:53,919
Speaker 3: Michael Berkman. Thank you Michael for being with us as

1081
00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 3: we get the view from Pennsylvania, more specifically from the

1082
00:56:57,680 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 3: center of the state. There really interesting director the McCartney

1083
00:57:00,560 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 3: Institute for Democracy and political science professor at penn State University.

1084
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 3: It's got a podcast called Democracy Works. Thanks for listening

1085
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:16,000
Speaker 3: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe

1086
00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:18,720
Speaker 3: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you

1087
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 3: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every

1088
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 3: weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.