WEBVTT - US Hiring Tops All Estimates, Jobless Rate Falls 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:12.160 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:15.320 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cardplay and Android 0:00:15.320 --> 0:00:18.440 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.320 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:25.720 Let's take a little deeper into that labor data we 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:29.600 got today. We're joined by Joni Biley, chief workforce analyst 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:33.560 at She's also the chair of the American Staffing Association, 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:36.760 So we appreciate chatting with Jony every time we get 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:39.280 these jobs numbers. Jenny, what do you make of this 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:41.800 number that the print right across that the you know, 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:43.800 the surface looks really solid. 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.599 Yeah, well, hello Paul and Emily. Great to be with 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:52.240 you today. Really interesting report this morning. You know, the 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:56.240 headline number looks very strong, you know, over two hundred 0:00:56.280 --> 0:01:02.600 and fifty thousand, and it's interesting listening to Austin Gooles. 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:05.840 We talk about, you know, the numbers and how this 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:09.120 might relieve you know, a lot of pressure. But I 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.280 have a little bit of a different take when you 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:15.240 dig into these numbers. You know, most of the jobs 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:19.559 that were actually created in the month of September were 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:23.960 in the healthcare sector and then also in the leisure 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:28.440 and hospitality sector. Those two sectors alone had about one 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:33.039 hundred and sixty thousand jobs created. So then if you 0:01:33.200 --> 0:01:35.720 dig into the details here, we can see, you know, 0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:39.920 construction was good, twenty five thousand jobs created, the government 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:43.560 added thirty one thousand jobs. But then we're not seeing 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:48.080 robust growth in many of the other sectors. And so 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:53.440 I think that headline number can be a bit misleading 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:56.920 when you look at the actual data that is in 0:01:56.960 --> 0:01:58.440 the Establishment survey. 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:03.800 So what then is it telling you about the current 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:07.160 state of the US economy when you do seem to 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:10.760 have noticed this kind of maybe distorted picture of the 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:13.280 labor market at least just looking at the numbers and 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:14.600 the data that we got this morning. 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.600 Yes, I think there are some sectors that are doing well. 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:22.760 I'd like to see growth come back, you know, in 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:27.720 the manufacturing sector, stronger numbers in the professional and business 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:32.040 service sector. We still saw a decline in September of 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:37.600 almost fourteen thousand jobs in the temporary help staffing sector. 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.000 And that's something that I always pay attention to because 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:43.440 it's part of the industry that I'm in. So Emily 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:45.760 I think what it's telling me is that we're still 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:50.399 in a soft job market. Though some of these indicators 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:53.320 look good, and I do believe, you know, Austin did 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:57.280 mention it, there are other indicators that are showing we're 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:00.919 still in that soft job market. Maybe we've gotten to 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:03.840 a point where we do have that soft landing and 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:06.960 things will start to improve over the next few months. 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:10.440 And I certainly hope that that is the case, But 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:13.399 I don't think that we are out of the woods 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:14.720 just yet. 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:18.400 So that's a more cautious take than we've heard throughout 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.560 the morning here, Joony. Just in terms of this market, 0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:22.600 as you characterize the labor markets, maybe a little bit 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:27.080 softer than it appears here. What are people missing do 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:27.440 you think? 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:31.440 Well, I think if you look at the report, you know, 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:34.840 and seeing almost eighty thousand jobs come back in leisure 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:41.040 and hospitality, those jobs are lower leveled skilled jobs and 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:45.800 lower wage positions. So what we're not seeing come back 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:52.240 yet are the higher skilled, more professional positions. Certainly in 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:56.680 the healthcare sector that remains very strong, but we're not 0:03:56.760 --> 0:04:00.920 seeing jobs like in accounting and finance and and really 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:04.760 that stem field, which there is a strong you know, 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:08.120 demand in the future for you know, the skilled jobs 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:11.960 in science and engineering, but we're not seeing a ton 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:16.719 of job creation in those sectors right now. I also 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:20.880 is very surprised that when you look at, you know, 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:26.120 some of the numbers in like transportation and warehousing, those 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:29.400 numbers were very soft, which tells me we're going into 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:34.120 the retail season. We're not seeing you know, the companies 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:39.839 really get ready for a strong, you know, retail holiday season. 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:44.760 We're also seeing employers that normally hire this time you know, 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:47.480 of the year and start to ramp up for the holidays. 0:04:48.400 --> 0:04:51.800 Their projections are a bit softer of the amount of 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.600 people that they are going to need. So that's where 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:56.120 I think I take a little bit more of a 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:59.560 cautious approach. I'm not saying that we're going to fall 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:04.840 off cliff by any means, but we still need you know, 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:08.520 a few more months of job growth and really start 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:12.040 to see some of that growth come from other sectors, 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:16.120 you know, if you know, in addition to healthcare and 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:17.440 leisure and hospitality. 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:19.359 All right, Jenny, thank you so much for joining us. 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:21.920 We really appreciate getting your perspective when we try to 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:25.120 break down some of these jobs numbers here today Jonny Biley. 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:27.960 She's a division president at employee Bridge and she's also 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:31.360 the chair of the American Staffing Association. So a great 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:34.800 voice to speak to speak with on these important job stays. 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:40.159 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:43.760 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.960 Otto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:50.240 on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:52.839 Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven. 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:56.560 Thirty again on the labor front of the print here, 0:05:56.560 --> 0:06:00.560 as Lisa was just just reporting very strong jobs or 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:03.440 print for the non farm payrolls today, much better than expected. 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:07.479 Some good unemployment rate numbers as well. Let's check on 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:09.279 Ben Emmons because we want to see what this means 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:10.960 for the Federal Reserve. Ben Emmons is a founder and 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:14.800 chief investment officer of Fed Watch Advisors, joining us from Washington, DC. 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:20.080 So Ben, again, a strong labor number today non farm payrolls. 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:21.840 How do you think this Federal Reserve is going to 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:24.560 interpret this data? 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:28.200 Hi? Paul Well listening to Austin Goolsby, You know he 0:06:28.560 --> 0:06:31.880 does continue to indicate that more cuts coming, right, I 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:35.840 think they feel that although these could be sometimes outliers 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:39.040 on a multi basis, it's interesting it still happens because 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:42.080 of the pandemic effect with all this distortion in the 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:46.200 household versus establishment survey. It's nonetheless a labor market does 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:48.760 show the vation. Like if you look at the median 0:06:49.760 --> 0:06:53.000 duration of unemployment and there's now risen to twenty two weeks, 0:06:53.440 --> 0:06:56.480 that's the highest since I think twenty twenty two. If 0:06:56.520 --> 0:06:58.719 you take you know, the percentage of people you know 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:00.880 of twenty seven weeks, so long we're out of work, 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:03.359 there's no our twenty three percent of total employed. So 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:06.800 there's some underlying deterioration. I think this feat is keen 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:10.480 on bringing that back in and trying to control for 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:13.040 the worst thing of the picture given the restrictive stance. 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:14.760 So I think the fatal could either look at this 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.400 saying we have room to cut. This is a good 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.160 labor market, but we can cut rage because we just 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.080 have very restrictive policy to keep the labor market in 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:23.480 good ship. 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:26.800 I'm wondering, if you know, a lot of people talk 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:30.480 about how monetary policy happens and comes with a lag, 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:34.280 and yet we're only about a month after the first 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.240 rate cut. So Ben, would you say that the rate 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:41.480 cut is already working or is something else also driving 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:44.000 the strength in the labor market right now? 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:48.600 So I think it's part of the signaling effect from raycuts. 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:50.960 If you step back actually going to the June July 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:54.360 period when all that softness start to come through and 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:56.880 the fat speaker start also look at that and start 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:59.840 to talk about raycuts, all that signaling happened. If you 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:03.680 look at the ISM data that's coming through now, including 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:06.480 regional data, you see all the forward looking indicators some 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:08.960 sort of a turn upwards, right, and that's your new 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:12.840 orders and inventories, and that's sort of like cyclical indicators. 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:17.360 And again bring basically back each time to Bostic, who 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:19.960 who are so outspoken on this, saying that they're in 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:22.560 their surveys with local businesses. They got a lot of 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:24.480 feedback like, okay, fed, if you're going to cut rates, 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:26.160 we're going to see a lot more sales activity, a 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.880 lot of things going happening. And I think that may 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.800 be a reason. Right, So in surveys it shows up. 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:35.720 Whereas this employment report itself. I was talking to your 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:38.880 economists and A Wong about this. There's some alternative data 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:41.600 out there that's that indicated that that may have been 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:44.320 a really strong month, but it could be because of 0:08:44.480 --> 0:08:47.840 just a lot of shifts happening underneath. So I think 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:50.960 the basis points of custo that we just had that 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.640 is just hitting the economy as we speak, but that 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:56.280 may take some time for truly works through. Why this 0:08:56.400 --> 0:08:58.960 fat I think is not that they're cutting rates from 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:02.400 here despite this number, but the signaling of cuts is 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.559 interesting that is coming through the fore looking indicators. 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:08.040 Hey, Ben, we kind of came into this morning with 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:10.960 a reasonable likelihood that fifty basis points was on the 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:12.560 table for the next meeting. I'm looking at the work 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:15.800 function here and that seems to be kind of off 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:18.080 the table. Seems to be pricing in a twenty five 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:20.800 bas point cut in the November meeting. How do you 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:23.160 expect the Federal Reserve to proceed over the next you know, 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:25.040 three four to five meetings as we get into next year. 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:29.520 Yeah, these these probabilities are so fluctuating. In Paul, like, 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:32.040 I looked at that too. It was thirty percent before 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:34.280 the number now dropped to seven and a half percent 0:09:34.640 --> 0:09:38.160 for fifty base point cut. So it is definitely sensitive 0:09:38.200 --> 0:09:41.080 to anything that's stronger of data, very versus the weaker 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:44.520 of data. I think that's the mechanics of the markets. 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:47.160 So the Fed will ultimately come down to the back, 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:50.480 but they didn't at this meeting at this minute sound 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:52.600 in a couple of weeks, I think they just continue 0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:54.959 to look at like where the policy is in broader 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:57.760 sense of how restrictive it really is. And it looks 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:02.000 since the last two CPI reposts reports the real interest 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:03.719 rate that the fat funds rate has only risen a 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:06.280 little further from here, so it's gotten even more room 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:10.080 to cut rates. We get CBI on Wednesday, I believe 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:12.120 it's probably going to be not a sole of a 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:14.719 CPI data either, so that that real FET funds rate 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:18.120 remains quite high, drifting towards three percent. I think that 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:20.800 is what they're looking at to say we can take 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:24.560 some off, so we'll keep cutting rates until at some 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:28.920 point that does information that shows some stabilization maybe turning higher, 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:34.320 and you're seeing the economy accelerating, really accelerating growth, what 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:34.880 does that. 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:38.120 Mean for investing in bonds? I mean today I'm looking 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:41.120 at you know, the two year up fifteen point eight 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:44.520 basis points the ten year up ten basis points. I 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:47.280 guess those expectations that maybe the Fed is not going 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:51.680 to cut as much. Is that bad for people trying 0:10:51.679 --> 0:10:52.840 to make money in bonds here? 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:57.640 It could be because you know that when we were 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:00.319 at roughly the lows on the tenure was somewhere three 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.400 sixty five or so a few weeks ago. I mean, 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:06.040 I'll almost back to four percent, right, so call it 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:10.199 thirty five basis points of change. You know, the industry 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:13.079 sensitivity bounds is still really high, and noted from the 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:17.440 index duration, it's a sensitivity of interest. Rates has climbed 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.280 up again since we had this decline from interst rates 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:22.680 from the spring from April all the way into the summer. 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:25.080 And so it does show that if you're getting a 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:28.600 little moving rates higher, you immediately get these accruing losses. 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:33.280 So be mindful of this volatility that's that's basically caused 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:36.839 by this interstrate sensitivity. The short end, the yucave alwys 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:41.280 remain a bit more attractive because the yucreve has slowly normalized, 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.680 but not as much. But there's still much more yield there. 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:45.720 That's been said a lot, but I think I say 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:49.280 on that that that's a view too, But bouncing itself 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.960 will remain at the basically at the whim of this 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:56.000 data movement. So there's volatility in bounds that's higher than 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.000 we have pre pandemic, which makes it not always that 0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:01.959 easy to go all in bounce, and that says that 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:04.400 would be more careful with long duration bounds here. 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:06.760 All right, Ben, thanks so much for joining us. Always 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:08.559 appreciate getting a few minutes of your time. Ben Emmon's 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:12.080 chief investment officer and founder at fed Watch Advisors. 0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:17.360 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:20.160 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:23.160 broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:29.000 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. Again. 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:31.200 The story of the day, one of the economic stories 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:34.599 of the day is certainly that job's number and he 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:36.480 came in really strong and non farm payroll here. So 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:38.199 let's break it down with somebody who does this stuff 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:39.920 for a living, Tom Gimble. He's a founder and board 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:43.319 member of LASALM Network. LASAL is founded in nineteen ninety 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:45.920 eight and it is one of the leading staffing and 0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:49.760 recruiting firms in the country. So this is Tom's business. 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.720 Hey Tom, you guys put up being the labor markets 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:54.080 a pretty strong data point here today. 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:54.719 What do you make of it? 0:12:55.600 --> 0:12:57.320 Well, I think number one, I went to the UVA 0:12:57.400 --> 0:12:59.400 of the Rocky at the University of Colorado. Oh yeah, 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:01.200 we can get if we can get a go buff's 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:01.640 real quick. 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:03.480 I bet go buffs, go buffs. 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:09.120 There we go. Now listen, this report is If you're 0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:13.280 anything but optimistic after this report, you're crazy. This is 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:19.800 an unbelievable number with unemployment dropping and higher than expected 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:23.800 jobs numbers, and it's a really good sign for the economy. 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:26.200 So what do you make Tom? Where a is some 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:27.280 of this demand coming from? 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:27.680 There are a lot of. 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:29.600 People that want to maybe poke a little bit of 0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:31.599 a throw some shade on this to say it's a 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:34.440 it's coming from leisure, it's coming from healthcare, and not 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.160 really the higher paying jobs. How do you make the 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:38.839 how do you when you go underneath the service? What's 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:40.160 the what's what's it look like? 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:40.960 Yeah? 0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:43.600 I think I always find that interesting. Right, So they 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:47.320 would rather not have people being hired in hospitality and 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:51.600 leisure and construction. It's it's the fact that we have 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:56.800 consumer spending that happens at hotels and restaurants and service 0:13:56.840 --> 0:14:00.680 industries means that consumers are making more money and they 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:03.400 have more disposable income, which is a positive sign for 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:07.040 the economy. So that hiring is really good, and what 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:09.680 will end up happening is that continues to fuel it. 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:12.480 That if people are spending more than the companies that 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:15.959 make those retail products, we'll be hiring more people at 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:19.920 those companies and so on and so forth. And without 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:22.560 getting too reaganesque, but it's trickled down economics, and you're 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.800 going to have a situation where it keeps fueling more 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:29.360 better employment numbers, which is exactly what we want to 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:31.960 have happen now. The one soft spot I continue to 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:35.560 see is in recent college grads. I'm not seeing the 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:39.120 volume of hiring at people coming right out of college 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:41.880 a year out as I have during other bull markets, 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:44.320 but I think that'll change post the election. 0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:47.160 From your neck of the woods, how much are people 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.880 actually talking about the Federal Reserve and the impact of 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:54.200 rate cuts on the labor market, Because obviously at Bloomberg, 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:58.480 we are just obsessed with every piece of data that 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:00.240 comes out and what it means for the FED. But 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:05.000 how much do you actually talk about it at lasal network? 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:05.760 Oh. 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:07.920 I think that whether it's the Sound network or the 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:11.080 CEOs and CFOs and heads of HR that I talked 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:15.400 to on a regular basis, the FED rate is really 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:18.720 important to people, and I would say more on mid 0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:23.200 and large cap companies because they're looking at the cash flow, 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:24.960 the borrowing rate, how they're going to be able to 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:29.200 hire people, how their wages affect their bottom line, and 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.280 so I think it's a really important indicator that people look. 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:36.920 Even if people don't understand exactly what the FED rate means, 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:41.120 they do get that when rates were really low, there 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:44.320 was nothing stopping hiring in the economy and what's going on. 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.880 So when companies see that the fed's dropping rates by 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:51.600 fifty basis points, people get excited. Now. The biggest difference, 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:53.680 and I've been preaching this with you guys and elsewhere 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:57.239 for a long time, is that we have more employers 0:15:57.240 --> 0:16:00.600 in this country now than ever before. And what I 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:02.520 mean by that is if you would have gone back 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:05.880 sixty seventy years ago, if somebody lost their job at 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.880 Ford or General Motors, they were car people. They could 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:12.400 only get jobs at the car industry, excuse me, rebounded 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:17.080 Today skills are so transferable due to technology, and while 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.200 I think it's not going to last forever, but remote 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:21.520 work that you can lose your job in Detroit and 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:23.960 be working for a company in Silicon Valley as well, 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:27.280 And so we have that opportunity, and then the startup 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:30.960 nature that companies and individuals can raise venture money and 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:33.360 startups that I don't think we're ever going to have 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.480 an employment lag like we had in the seventies really 0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:37.480 ever Again. 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:40.840 Tom, I guess I haven't asked you this in a while, 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:43.400 but where are we on that whole remote work? Have 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:45.960 we settled into a new normal? And I guess that's 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.920 company by company three days, four days, five days. Where 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:50.080 do you think it is these days? 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:51.000 Yeah? 0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:53.800 I think right now it's three days. I still see. 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:57.840 It still amazes me, Paul, how many CEOs are afraid 0:16:57.880 --> 0:16:59.720 they'll they'll talk to me, they'll talk to each other, 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:01.840 and they'll God, we got to get people in, but 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:05.520 they won't lead, they won't say it, And that to 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.879 me is really the disturbing part. I think the Amazon 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:13.960 statement last week was really powerful, and you'll start to 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:17.439 see some follow the leader type statements coming out. I 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:20.160 think where we're going to get to is four days 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:23.200 a week, and some companies going five and some going three, 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:27.000 but the average will be four. And come twenty twenty five, 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:29.560 we're not going to remote work and people wanting that 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.439 isn't gonna happen. And you're going to see when companies 0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:35.840 start to downsize, and that will happen and other companies 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:37.800 will hire them, so it won't affect the numbers. But 0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:40.040 when you see companies lay people off, it's going to 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:41.720 be the remote workers that get hit first. 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.480 Just going back to the print that we saw this morning, 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:48.280 hourly earnings rose four percent from a year ago, the 0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:53.280 biggest advance in four months. I'm wondering what you make 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:57.240 of this upside surprise in wages and you know what 0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:59.600 that tells you about the strength of the labor market. 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:04.320 Well, I think it's interesting, and I have to dive 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.080 a little bit deeper into the hourly wage increase and 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:10.200 I saw that as well. But it really comes down 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:13.720 to you have more people working more hours, and in 0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:16.959 the retail space, it's so hard. I mean, listen, I'm 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:19.560 in Chicago, I was in New York a few weeks ago. 0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:23.600 I was in Nashville last week. It's really when you 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:25.840 go to a restaurant, the service is lacking because there 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:27.920 aren't enough people. And I talked to the managers when 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:30.640 I'm there to find out on the ground what's happening, 0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:32.920 and I think what you're seeing when you see hourly 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:36.760 rates increase, hourly wages increasing, it's because you can't find 0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:39.960 the people, and so you got to pay a little 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.119 bit more to make sure that your people stay. And 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:44.320 if you find somebody that you're getting the best that 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:45.200 you can get. 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:48.919 Tom you mentioned just about college graduates still having a 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:50.399 tough time. Why do you think that is? 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:54.840 I think company because usually what happens with kids out 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.760 of college, and I'm not talking about accounting degrees or 0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:01.159 pre law or whatever, but more liberal arts education, the 0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:04.600 massive state colleges and people coming out is that companies 0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:07.440 hire in volume, whether it's sales or marketing, or they're 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:09.880 going to do a training class and all of that 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:13.159 type of thing. And when you hear the sky's falling 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:17.120 every day from both sides of the political spectrum during 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:20.919 an election year, companies put the brakes on massive hiring 0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:24.679 at individual companies. So we're seeing sporadic hiring in small 0:19:24.760 --> 0:19:28.080 medium sized business hiring, But we haven't seen the huge 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:33.239 uptake of late stage venture companies, private equity companies that 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.440 are really pouring money into hiring and mass and that's 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.399 the biggest difference I see versus twenty oh one and 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:43.040 twenty eighteen twenty nineteen when the market was really on fire. 0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:46.560 We only have about a minute left. But what's the 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:49.760 outlook here for job growth for the rest of the year, 0:19:50.160 --> 0:19:54.600 particularly when you take into consideration the hurricanes in the 0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:55.600 Southern United States. 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:58.640 Yeah, well, I think that's an interesting one, and I'm 0:19:58.640 --> 0:19:59.960 sure you'll have a lot of people talking about it. 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.080 My take on it is you're actually going to see 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:05.399 a lot of additional employment in the Southeast because we 0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:07.640 need people to do the work to clean it up, 0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:11.240 and the companies that do that, whether it's the government 0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:13.840 or private industry, don't have enough body. So you're going 0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:16.320 to see a lot of hiring going on down there, 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:18.600 and the companies that employ the people who can't get 0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:20.680 to work, those people aren't going to be fired most 0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:23.560 likely and not being filing unemployment. So I think we'll 0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:26.639 actually maybe see a spike in the October jobs report 0:20:26.680 --> 0:20:29.240 coming out that first Friday in November due to the hurricane, 0:20:29.240 --> 0:20:31.840 that we'll have a mass of people going to work 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:34.760 in the southeast to help that situation. 0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:37.399 All right, Tom, thanks so much for joining us, as 0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:40.040 I always love talking to you on Jobs Day. Tom Gimble, 0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:43.280 he's a founder and board member of LaSalle Network, giving 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:46.040 us a breakdown there. Obviously, he's taking a very positive 0:20:46.280 --> 0:20:49.480 take on those strong jobs numbers. And again I'm glad 0:20:49.520 --> 0:20:53.200 you put it up, Emily, the wage number, because that's 0:20:53.240 --> 0:20:56.159 been strong and it's been higher than inflation for the 0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.359 last almost two years now. So the real income for 0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.600 most of Americans after the very difficult time coming of 0:21:02.680 --> 0:21:05.600 during the pandemic, has actually been quite positive real income. 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:09.520