WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29, 2024 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.800 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hortern. Join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.640 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business Apples to Shanada Morgan Stanley 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:40.400 right in the following. Markets have been extremely active over 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:42.960 the past month as traders have duced up the already 0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:47.160 a brilliant scenario baited into equity valuations, adding improved odds 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:50.800 of a Republican sweep to the list of goodies already discounted. 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:53.320 Lisa joins us, now for more. Lisa, that's quite a quote. 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:54.120 Good morning to you. 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:54.840 Good morning. 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.120 Are you suggesting this market's gone a little bit too 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:58.160 far and things stretched? 0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:01.920 Absolutely? I mean, you know we've been talking about for 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:04.360 a while that on a valuation basis, this is a 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:11.240 very expensive market, on very ambitious earnings expectations. Let's just 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:14.680 take a step back and think about what companies have reported. 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:17.600 All right, if you look at the twelve month trailing 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:22.360 earnings for the quarter end of June thirtieth year over 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:25.679 year s and P five hundred profits, including the MAG seven, 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:28.840 we're growing at about five percent year over year in 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.680 the quarter so far. What's been reported in the mag 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:33.399 seven haven't all reported. 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:35.000 Yet, we're up three percent. 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.360 The expectation for full year twenty twenty four is we're 0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:40.360 going to get to a year over year compare up 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:43.000 nine to ten percent, and then next year we're going 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:49.320 to accelerate to fifteen percent. So these are ambitious reacceleration numbers. 0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:53.400 And so you know, when we think about what's baked 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:55.840 in and why we said there's a lot of goodies here, 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:58.560 there's a view that we're going to get that reacceleration. 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:02.800 It's going to be base on margin expansion profit margins 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:05.640 that are higher, but it's going to be so called immaculate. 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:09.520 We're not going to cut jobs to get there, which means, 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:13.600 you know, you've got to get productivity gains. And with 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:16.280 all of this wonderful news happening, the Fed's going to 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:19.880 keep cheerleading from the sides and cut you know, twenty 0:02:19.880 --> 0:02:24.160 five BIPs a quarter at least, and so and then 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:27.840 the you know, the latest is, you know, all goes well, 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:30.080 we get a red sweep in Washington, there is no 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:32.919 more regulation, we get goodies like taxes. None that tax 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:36.880 is a and yeah, and the world is a wonderful place. 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:40.200 And so I guess you know, from where we sit, 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:43.600 we just look at risk premiums, and so, you know, 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.200 as Lisa was just talking about the importance of this 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:51.200 move in the treasury markets, why are stocks shrugging it off? 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:52.160 Right? 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:54.639 I mean, typically this kind of move on the long 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:59.280 end of the curve, particularly as underlying real rates approach 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:03.960 two percent, which historically has been that obstacle for stock valuations. 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:07.360 I think it's a bit dangerous for the stock market 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:08.960 right here to be shrugging this off. 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:10.520 This is a significant move. 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:14.720 We've seen moves in the real rate, in inflation expectations, 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:21.560 in term premiums, in auction performance, and so I'm very 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.119 focused on watching these moves in the yields. 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:25.760 And the bond auctions, which is the reason why we 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:27.799 will always welcome you on this show. So there's a 0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:31.360 question here about whether yield's rising for the right reasons 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:33.520 will actually be supportive to the equity market. And that's 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:35.200 been an argument that a lot of people have made, 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:36.680 and we've gone over quite a bit on this show, 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:39.560 and there's a question of why you think that the 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:41.320 yield rise that we're seeing right now is for the 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:43.680 wrong reasons, or if it doesn't matter. It has reached 0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:45.800 it has breached that threshold where it needs to be 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:48.760 something that stock investors start to pay attention to. 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:51.839 Look, I think that the bond market has this right. 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:55.200 I do think real growth has been better. I do. 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:59.400 I am in the camp that says inflation expectations and 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:03.680 the potential for an inflation boomerang next year is actually rising, 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:07.240 especially if you bake in the part of the story 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:08.600 about a red sweep. 0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:10.720 You don't get the red sweep with again all the. 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.960 Goodies but none of the collateral damage, which as we know, 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:18.400 you know, tariffs and closed borders could be inflationary. So, 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:21.599 you know, I do think that the bond market is 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:25.479 anchoring on you know, some hypotheses that's very anchored in 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:28.520 the data. And I do think that the stock market 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:30.120 is going to have to wake up and pay attention 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:30.839 at some point. 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:32.200 So what do you do with that? 0:04:32.320 --> 0:04:33.800 I mean, you just sort of go into gold and 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:35.359 go into a bunker and hope for the best. 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:38.560 So what we're what we're doing is we're really focusing 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:43.479 on value and diversification. We're saying, valuation in this market matters. 0:04:44.240 --> 0:04:46.560 So we're playing in the parts of the stock market 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:50.159 that are somewhat you know, cheaper, quite frankly, and so 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:54.880 that has included some of the value Codhord, It's included financials, 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:58.360 it's included a handful of industrial as a handful of 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:02.400 healthcare stocks. And that's really been our approach is to say, 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:05.239 let's even it out, let's not take very big bets 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:08.359 here and and aim. 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:11.360 For some diversification. Financials is a trump bet. And yet 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:13.240 you're saying it's actually a very different bet. 0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:16.760 I thank you for pointing that out. Yeah, our preference 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:20.760 for for financials is not premised, uh necessarily on some 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:25.400 big deregulatory push. We think you know that that basil 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:31.600 two endgame easing of those capital requirements is going to 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:35.039 happen regardless. We think that that's already you know, kind 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:35.560 of been. 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:36.760 Signaled by regulators. 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:40.359 What cas Us excited about financials is not just the 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.440 potential for cost cutting and operating leverage, but the capital 0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:46.560 markets activity really looks like it's going to come back 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:51.200 over the next two years, as you know, financial sponsors 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:54.200 and the private equity guys finally get off the sidelines 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:57.680 with these kind of market valuations and start transacting and 0:05:57.720 --> 0:05:58.400 doing deals. 0:05:58.640 --> 0:05:59.640 Lisa, what the red sweep. 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:01.919 You get the goodies along with some of the potentially 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:04.159 the bad things that can hurt the financial markets. 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:06.200 But what if it's not. What if the. 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:10.200 Polling and the betting markets are underestimating the support Kamala 0:06:10.200 --> 0:06:13.080 Harris and some of these democrats have with issues like abortion, 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:16.080 How are you going to think about the next few years. 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:18.800 Yeah, so, look, I think that there's you know, a 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:22.920 Harris when at this point, I do think markets would 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:23.640 be surprised. 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:24.360 I do think we. 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:29.159 Got somewhere between you know, two and five percent pullback 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:32.560 on that because I do think that there's been you know, 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:34.720 some pretty big rotation. But I think you get a 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.839 lot of status quo type moves, right. I think we 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:42.640 continue to get a continuation of the fiscal stimulus programs 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:47.320 that we saw under the Biden administration. But we you know, 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:51.520 we don't get necessarily, you know, some of the issues 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:55.000 and the inflation threats. So we continue maybe on this 0:06:55.320 --> 0:07:00.000 soft landing trajectory as opposed to this no landing trajectory. 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:02.719 So I think the bond market comes back in as well. 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:04.640 But oh so you think the bond market. I think 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:05.719 yields come back in. 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:07.600 And that's all about fiscal spending. 0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:12.080 Yeah, I do because because her plans if you actually, 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:14.840 you know, do the analysis, and our team has done it. 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:19.360 Fiscal deficits under her current plan to be are going 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:22.200 to run about half what he's proposed so far. 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:24.680 So hard to game this out if you think about 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:27.000 twenty sixteen, and we always go back to this. Trump 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:29.240 was parished for markets. Yeah, up until the night of 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:31.040 the election, and then we woke up two, three, four 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:32.320 am in the morning and all of a sudden it 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:35.040 was bullish right to twenty twenty. Throw the scenarios out 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:37.600 the window. We got the vaccine FC data in November 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:40.080 twenty twenty. Everyone seems to forgotten about that. It had 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:42.320 nothing to do with the election. That's all the markets 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:44.000 Lisa absolutely rip that month. 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:45.760 Yeah, So here's the question, how much is it the 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:48.720 setup going in versus the actual candidate themselves and this 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.520 time around, and we've talked about this. If he can 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.400 implement the tariffs but he can't get rid of some 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:58.200 of the regulations and the taxes unilaterally in the same speed, 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:01.720 does that change that dissonance the reaction function of markets. 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:03.480 Lisa, this was a clinic. It's good to see you. 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:05.680 I appreciate it as a thank you for coming in, Lisa. 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:17.080 Shan At there of Morgan Stanley, John. 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:18.760 Leeper, if you write your group joins us. 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:21.560 Now, John, let's just start with the Harris campaign accusing 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:24.640 the former present of being a fascist during parallels with 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:27.920 Nazi rallies of decades ago. When you look at the polls, 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:30.160 when you look at where things around a week away 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:32.480 from the election, is any of it landing. 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:36.320 No, it doesn't seem like it. I mean, nothing's moved 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:38.439 in this race except for one big event, which was 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:42.040 Joe Biden dropping out. Otherwise it's been pretty steady. You 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:46.960 have seen some movements among subgroups, particularly independent voters, which 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.960 were shifting towards Harris and now moving back towards Trump. 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:52.000 But you look at kind of any of the big 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:57.280 set pieces of the campaign, the DNC, the RNC, even 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:01.719 Trump's assassination event attempt. You weren't seeing big movements, and 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:03.920 you're not really seeing them in the closing days. In fact, 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:07.040 one of the big markers of this campaign has been 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:10.240 how incredibly steady it is and how most people's views 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:13.040 of both of these candidates are totally baked. 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:13.960 In, you know, and John I was thinking a lot 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:15.680 about this last night, how a lot of this is 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:17.480 cultural works kind of coming to the Ford. It's the 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:20.280 reason why we're seeing a massive gender gap. And on 0:09:20.280 --> 0:09:23.960 one side you have the preeminence of cancel culture and 0:09:24.000 --> 0:09:28.640 sort of people who are really looking for potential issues, 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:30.560 and you have other people who say anything and it 0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:31.520 doesn't really register. 0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:33.280 That's why I think it's notable. 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:37.760 Has this incident at masis the Square Garden broken through 0:09:37.880 --> 0:09:41.440 in a way that some of these other comments really haven't. 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:43.520 Well. I think the risk is that it's a really 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:46.600 close election and you've got about half a million Hispanic 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:49.560 voters in Pennsylvania, many of whom are from Puerto Rican origin, 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:52.920 so it's entirely possible that it doesn't take a big 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.840 movement in the polls or even a big event that's 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:57.800 going to be the thing that decides this election. I mean, 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:00.960 it would be extremely ironic if it were a unfunny 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:03.920 joke from a no name comedian and an unnecessary rally 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:06.480 in Manhattan that ended up costing the Trump this election. 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:09.640 But an election where the two candidates are going to 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:12.600 be separated by as few as ten or twenty thousand votes, 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:16.280 that is completely plausible in this election cycle, which is 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:19.760 why these Puerto Rico comments and the other comments from 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:22.839 the Manhattan rally are resonating so much. And has Trump 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:24.000 trying to do damage control? 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:26.200 John, what do you make given how close this is 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:28.920 of the fires for the ballot boxes that we saw 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:32.640 in Washington State, some of the supposedly only one hundred 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:35.560 or a couple of hundred different ballots were destroyed. But 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:38.640 how much is there that risk going forward of this 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:40.240 type of activity increasingly? 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:42.440 Yeah, I think there's a lot of risk of that. 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:44.880 And you have to acknowledge that the Republicans have been 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.439 convincing themselves for the last four years that the election 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:50.160 was stolen, and in doing so, have basically studied some 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:52.160 good techniques of how to try to steal an election. 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:54.559 So I think that's a big factory. I mean, I 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.280 don't think it's a big going to end up being 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:58.679 a big factory here. But the thing that I think 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:00.960 we should keep our eye on are is people's trust 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:03.000 in the system. So one of the problems we're trying 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:05.600 to tampering we're trying to tamper with the ballot box 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:08.360 is you don't know whose ballots you're burning, so you 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:12.319 can target different neighborhoods and have you know, try to 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:14.520 go after different demographic groups who you think are have 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.120 a higher propensity to vote one way or the other. 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:19.920 I mean, Washington State is not going to vote for Trump, 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:23.400 we know that, but you know, I do think that 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:25.200 this is going to be an issue where people lose 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:28.800 faith in the process if they see that proper safeguards 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.480 aren't in place to protect the sanctity of every single 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:34.720 person's ballots, and that long term, has a really negative 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:37.280 effect on people's belief in the fairness of the system. 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:40.240 And it's how you get a majority of Republicans believing 0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:42.199 the last election was stolen. And I think that's a 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:44.040 very dangerous and disturbing trend. 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:46.080 Washington State's not going to vote for Trump, but where 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:48.760 this ballot box was. It's in a congressional district where 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:51.800 the Democrat incumbent is facing a very tough challenge from 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:55.320 Republican Just when you look at the map, John right now, 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:58.080 the Harris campaign thinks they can hold the blue Wall. 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:01.160 The Trump camp they thinks they can at least take 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.199 one of those states. When you look at Wisconsin, Michigan, 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.160 and Pennsylvania, which one is most ripe to flip? 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:10.079 I think, to me, it looks like Harris is the 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:13.600 weakest in Michigan. She's got big problems with Arab American voters, 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:16.120 and she's been a little bit weaker with white voters 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:19.160 than she's been in other places. And so I think 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:21.080 that's the place where the Trump team had things They 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:24.560 have probably the best opportunity. Pennsylvania is obviously the biggest 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:26.800 and most important state and the one that is very 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.080 very close in the polls. Wisconsin seems like it's shaded 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:31.920 a little bit towards Harris. So if I had to 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:33.720 choose one, I would say Michigan is going to be 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:35.600 the big battleground in this election. 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:36.560 It's easy. 0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:40.719 It's interesting you chose Michigan because in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.199 those are the two Senate races that are now looking 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:46.480 more like coin tosses when they were leaning Democrat. Do 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:49.360 you think those Senate races could go red but the 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:51.760 top of the ticket and those states go blue. 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:53.760 Yeah again, I mean, it doesn't take much in this 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:57.880 cycle for you don't need a lot of split ticket 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.120 voters for something like that to happen. I think all 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:05.360 three of those races are competitive. In Wisconsin, Baldwin and 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:09.760 in Pennsylvania, Casey has the benefit of being incumbents, and 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:13.920 incumbency brings high name recognition and that does help incumbents 0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:18.040 survive even very good challengers in a decent year for 0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:18.760 the out party. 0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:20.960 Hey Jump, good to get your thoughts. As always. John 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:34.120 Leber there of Jurasia Group The Cook Political Report, writing 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:38.240 Trump's closing argument his campaign says is this Harris broke it. 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.559 Trump will fix it. And yet even with all these advantages, 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:44.480 the race remains locked in a dead heat. The reason 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:47.679 for this, of course, is Trump himself. The Cook Political Reports. 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:49.640 Jessica tay That joins us now for more. Jessica, welcome 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:50.200 to the program. 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:50.480 Thank you. 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:51.960 I was good to see you in person. There is 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:54.000 this stat in your research, and I'm going to share 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:57.440 it with our audience. There is no Trump policy that 0:13:57.480 --> 0:13:59.840 comes without his polarizing behavior, style and approach. And this 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:03.480 timber Coook Political Reports, Swing State Project poll just thirty 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.520 four percent of voters that they like Trump's policies and 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:07.720 his leadership style. 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.280 How much of a problem is that for the former president. 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:11.760 I mean, I think that if this was sort of 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:14.480 a generic Republican, this race would probably be over. It's 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:16.600 voters have to make a choice of Okay, you liked 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:19.440 where the economy was under Trump, but you get all 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.680 of these other all of the rest of this baggage 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:23.800 that comes with him. So that's where we're seeing Harris's 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:28.400 closing message. You know, he's he's an authoritarian, he's a fascist. 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:30.840 This is the chaos trying to remind them of people, 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:32.680 and I think some of the things that came out 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:35.840 of that, you know, Madison Square Garden rally, he's he's 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:36.840 having to answer for them. 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:37.120 Today. 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.200 He's going to Pennsylvania, Allentown, where there's a large Puerto 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:44.280 Rican Hispanic population, and that is now the story in 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.160 this final week before before the race. It's not focusing on, 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:50.600 you know, how he would be a change. He's trying 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:52.000 to make it a focus on how he would be 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:56.800 a change from a Biden Harris administration. But Harris and 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.360 Democrats are arguing, yes, but he was a change, and 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:01.080 you're going to get all of this chaos, You're going 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:03.360 to get all of this sort of insanity back again. 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:05.600 Just are you seeing anything in the polls that Trump 0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:08.200 is going to be able to go past that ceiling 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:09.880 that he's basically been capped at. 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:11.920 Yeah, this is the real question, and this is why, 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:14.160 you know, I think the polls. I think that's the 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:15.400 thing at the back of our head is that the 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:17.320 Poles were wrong in twenty sixteen, they were wrong in 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:20.000 twenty twenty, but like they're still capturing about where he 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:22.440 was at. They sorted this forty seven forty eight percent, 0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:24.640 and that's what we haven't seen. We really haven't seen 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:26.720 him grow his coalition. So the question is, I think 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:28.840 with these undecided voters, did they sort of go over 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:30.960 to him, did they stay home? Does Hairs get them 0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:33.520 in her coalition? I think that's the real question as 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:35.680 we're looking at some of this swing state polling that's 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:36.840 just very deadlocked, and. 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.760 Cook Political Report now has it as a toss up race. 0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:42.440 For presidential Yes, all of the seven swing states we 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:45.080 rate his toss up, so it is as close as 0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:46.920 it can be out. I mean, the poles I continue 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:48.840 to see out, private and public. 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:51.280 All are within just one or two points. Basically. 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.360 The financial markets, though, are pricing in a red sweep. 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:56.480 Part of that has to do with the Senate map, 0:15:56.680 --> 0:16:00.480 and you've done some great work on actually senators are 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:04.440 defending seats Democrats in Wisconsin, in Pennsylvania but actually might 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:05.160 be toss ups. 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:07.840 What does the map look like today? The map is 0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:10.400 favoring Republicans. And that's why if we're looking at a 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:14.840 Republican trifecta that's more most likely to flip has always 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:17.440 been the Senate. That's because Democrats have a fifty one 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:19.360 to forty nine majority, but they're already we already know 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.960 they're going to lose West Virginia. John Tester in Montana 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:24.400 is the underdogs. So that gets you to fifty one 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:27.520 for Republicans. Right then, then the question is, as you mentioned, 0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:29.640 the races that we've seen tighten up in the past 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:30.320 few weeks have. 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:32.600 Been those blue wall states. Wisconsin. 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:35.680 Ohio is the next, probably with shared Brown that's still 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.080 a very difficult state and a state that Trump won 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:40.760 by eight points. But I'm seeing tightening polls in Wisconsin 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:44.280 with Tammy Baldwin and Eric Covevey there. In Pennsylvania, that's 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:46.440 the race that we moved last weekend to toss up 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:51.560 with Bob Casey and David McCormick there. Michigan still remains closer. 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:54.640 I would probably still rather be a slightly Ilissa Slotkin 0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:58.000 in that instance, but they're all very close. 0:16:58.240 --> 0:16:59.920 We've seen those races just close. 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:02.600 So I think as the presidential race goes, probably the 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:06.000 Senate races go Because in twenty sixteen, every single Senate 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:07.840 race went the same way as the presidential race. In 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.920 twenty twenty, only Susan Collins managed to win, even as 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:13.320 Biden carried her state. So I think we're seeing a 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:15.760 delta of just a couple of points. I think we 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:18.800 could see split tickets in Arizona, for instance, where Trump 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:23.200 is favored there but the Democrat Ruben geyego is so well, how. 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:25.360 Can you just walk us through what a red wave 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:27.560 looks like, what a red sweep looks like. Given the 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:30.760 fact that not all Republicans are the same, not all 0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:33.000 Democrats are the same, how much are we looking at 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:36.199 Trump truly having a clutch over the Republican Party in 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:39.040 a way where he could get through his policies very easily, 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:40.879 even with just a simple majority. 0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:42.920 I think that's why you see Republicans that are wanting 0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:44.920 to get to, you know, fifty three to fifty four seats, 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:46.920 because if it's just a very narrow fifty one to 0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:49.760 forty nine majority, the most important people in the Senate 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:53.240 become the moderates Lisa Mkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:55.359 who's up for reelection in twenty twenty six if she 0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:58.040 runs again. They have such a favorable map they want 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.359 to take advantage of this, especially if you see Trump 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:02.879 winning and I think the House is very deadlocked. You 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:04.679 only need four seats one way or the other. We 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:06.960 see that as a toss up. And you know, there's 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.800 some places where in here, in New York and in 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:13.200 California that are more democratic areas that Republicans need to 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:15.960 run ahead of. But then we have seats in Michigan 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:18.600 that are I think going to be very very close 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.560 as well. So you know, I think that probably is 0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:24.280 the way the presidency goes, Probably the House goes as well, 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:27.040 But that's why Republicans want to sort of get that 0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:27.920 bigger majority. 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:30.080 Gives President Trump a possible cushion. 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:30.840 When we talk. 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:33.760 About what's going to potentially change the outcome, everyone talks 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:36.960 about turnout and potentially who has the better ground game, 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:38.720 who has the better around voting game. 0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:39.800 What are you seeing on that front? 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:43.920 Democrats have a very sophisticated operation that is sort of 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:46.240 their bread and butter, getting those people out, knowing where 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:48.240 to target them, and that I do hear some concern 0:18:48.280 --> 0:18:51.199 among Republicans because the Trump campaign has largely sort of 0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:54.200 farmed us out to Turning Point USA to Elon Musk. 0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:57.240 But then we also are seeing some encouraging early voting 0:18:57.240 --> 0:19:01.280