1
00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:03,520
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

2
00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:06,200
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

3
00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,440
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

4
00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:11,559
Speaker 1: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

5
00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,960
Speaker 1: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent

6
00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:17,280
Speaker 1: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,

7
00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:19,920
Speaker 1: it just means the absolute world to have your support.

8
00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:24,239
Speaker 1: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Welcome

9
00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:27,040
Speaker 1: back to Counterpoints Friday. We've got an incredible amount of

10
00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 1: mid term dramedas to talk about. We've got a call

11
00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:31,880
Speaker 1: in the Arizona Senate race, We've got a likely call

12
00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,200
Speaker 1: in the Nevada Senate race, and we have the possibility

13
00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:37,919
Speaker 1: that one of the parties is going to end up

14
00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:42,199
Speaker 1: with two hundred and seventeen seats in the House of Representatives,

15
00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,280
Speaker 1: meaning whoever is the speaker, whether it's McCarthy or Pelosi

16
00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:47,400
Speaker 1: or whatever DEM's put in there, would have a one

17
00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,000
Speaker 1: vote margin. And I was just telling Emily, nobody in

18
00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,199
Speaker 1: this world deserves to have one vote margin more than

19
00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,960
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy. He has wanted this job his entire life,

20
00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,400
Speaker 1: and when he finally gets it, it will just fault

21
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,840
Speaker 1: to pieces of his hands. We'll break all of that

22
00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:03,880
Speaker 1: down in the midterm block because there's so much to

23
00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:05,880
Speaker 1: talk about in terms of the dynamics, in terms of

24
00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:10,200
Speaker 1: what's ongoing, and speaking of the dynamics. Yeah, and also

25
00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,520
Speaker 1: we'll get to Ukraine in a moment, Russia and retreat

26
00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:17,399
Speaker 1: around Carson. But back here in the United States, twenty

27
00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:21,280
Speaker 1: twenty four, kicking off Donald Trump, not waiting for the

28
00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,520
Speaker 1: House results, not waiting for the Senate results. I can't

29
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,959
Speaker 1: even keep up with his tax on RHNDA Sanctimonious. He

30
00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,399
Speaker 1: hit him on Air Force one last night after his

31
00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,360
Speaker 1: rally and date, and then he hit him all over

32
00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:39,320
Speaker 1: truth social appeared to be confessing to crimes that he

33
00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:44,480
Speaker 1: himself committed. But the fact that we don't necessarily believe

34
00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:46,840
Speaker 1: him he might be lying about his own criminal behavior,

35
00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,000
Speaker 1: it means that he's not necessarily guilty innocent until proven guilty,

36
00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,000
Speaker 1: which is really bold, by the way, And I'm talking

37
00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:56,000
Speaker 1: about his claim that he stopped the count for Ron Destantus.

38
00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,360
Speaker 1: But tell us, tell us, what is the indictment that

39
00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:02,640
Speaker 1: Trump is laying out against mister sanctimonious here. Well, it's

40
00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,080
Speaker 1: kind of a sort of smattering. If we put a

41
00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:06,840
Speaker 1: one up on the screen. This is the New York

42
00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:08,840
Speaker 1: Times write up of everything that's been going on. Trump

43
00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:12,239
Speaker 1: threatens to reveal unflattering information about DeSantis if he runs. Now.

44
00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,440
Speaker 1: Trump reportedly said I know more about him than anybody

45
00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,880
Speaker 1: other than perhaps his wife. That's a Maggie Haberman byline.

46
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,440
Speaker 1: So she got the goods apparently from an inside Trump world.

47
00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,120
Speaker 1: And this is there have been some posts you can

48
00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,480
Speaker 1: see in A two some of the barbs. I was

49
00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:32,840
Speaker 1: gonna say that I've been gone back and forth, but

50
00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,919
Speaker 1: it's only gone in one direction, right, just the fourth

51
00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,960
Speaker 1: nobody's trading barbs. So okay, So Donald Trump is saying

52
00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:44,320
Speaker 1: that News Corps is basically undermining him in favor of DeSantis.

53
00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 1: Ryan came to me desperate, in desperate shape. In twenty seventeen.

54
00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:51,240
Speaker 1: He was politically dead, losing in a landslide. And he

55
00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:53,960
Speaker 1: keeps going. I mean, he this is a pretty long thread,

56
00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,320
Speaker 1: and just on and on. I was all in for

57
00:02:57,440 --> 00:02:59,480
Speaker 1: Ron and he beat Gillham. But after the race, when

58
00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:03,200
Speaker 1: votes were being counted, that's what Ryan said. Yeah, he says,

59
00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:06,560
Speaker 1: when votes are being counted, basically, I sent a prosecutor

60
00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,160
Speaker 1: and the FBI down to Broward County. He says Rhonda

61
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,360
Speaker 1: Stantis was losing ten thousand votes a day as they

62
00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,840
Speaker 1: were counting more votes. I went down there and I

63
00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:19,960
Speaker 1: stopped the count. He just stops it right there. He

64
00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:24,680
Speaker 1: is likely reflect Again, I'm no Trump whisperer. My best guess,

65
00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,799
Speaker 1: as somebody who is on the right, is that he's

66
00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,200
Speaker 1: referring to what a lot of people think happens in

67
00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,720
Speaker 1: deep blue counties is that they're just finding fake votes,

68
00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,880
Speaker 1: and they're going through yeah, ballots like absentee ballots that

69
00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:43,560
Speaker 1: don't count and curing them or fixing them, et cetera,

70
00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,720
Speaker 1: et cetera, and that's where they find different margins. That's

71
00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,280
Speaker 1: the idea. That's what I'm assuming. So I'm assuming he's

72
00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:54,200
Speaker 1: saying he stopped. He's saying he stopped the process. I

73
00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:56,160
Speaker 1: find it hard to believe that he did that without

74
00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,839
Speaker 1: it becoming public. But if he did that, that needs

75
00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:03,360
Speaker 1: to be investigated. I think it's absolutely yes. The FBI

76
00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:07,320
Speaker 1: apparently can just ask itself. He's saying he told the

77
00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:09,600
Speaker 1: FBI to go do it. It seems like there's a

78
00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 1: pretty easy answer there. I mean, it is true that

79
00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:16,680
Speaker 1: that I can't stop calling him to sanctimonious love it.

80
00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,400
Speaker 1: It's such a funny name. It is true that DeSantis

81
00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,560
Speaker 1: was losing to Andrew Gillim, yes, and that and that

82
00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,560
Speaker 1: Trump's endorsement played a key role, as well as the

83
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:29,960
Speaker 1: FBI's role in tying Tallahassee and gill him up in

84
00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 1: this investigation around Hamilton tickets. There's the best way for

85
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,720
Speaker 1: a Democrat to go down. It's over. Of course, it's

86
00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:39,960
Speaker 1: over Hamilton tickets. Yeah, you couldn't script that better. No,

87
00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:44,080
Speaker 1: you couldn't. So this feud between Trump and DeSantis, again,

88
00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,159
Speaker 1: this is something that's been simmering because DeSantis is seen,

89
00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,800
Speaker 1: as many people on the right by the person who's

90
00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,040
Speaker 1: Trump without Trump. You hear that over and over again.

91
00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,840
Speaker 1: DeSantis has all the goods of Donald Trump with none

92
00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,360
Speaker 1: of the baggage of Donald Trump. I think that's mistaken,

93
00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:02,880
Speaker 1: and that's not a particularly smart analysis, but that's sort

94
00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:07,960
Speaker 1: of a congealing conventional wisdom on the right, and it

95
00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,360
Speaker 1: really irks Donald Trump. He's seen the cover jump Fox News.

96
00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:13,679
Speaker 1: A lot of people are very favorable to DeSantis there,

97
00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:16,640
Speaker 1: and frankly not very favorable to Trump there. If you

98
00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,560
Speaker 1: really have been watching Fox closely. Lately there's a lot

99
00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,599
Speaker 1: of pro DeSantis and a lot of pro DeSantis talk,

100
00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:27,159
Speaker 1: And you know, there's this idea that I think exists

101
00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,560
Speaker 1: in the minds actually have a lot of voters. We

102
00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 1: see this in the midterm results, that there's just deep

103
00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,120
Speaker 1: exhaustion with Donald Trump, even among people who may have

104
00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:37,800
Speaker 1: voted for him, even on the right. But what that

105
00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,800
Speaker 1: doesn't take into account is that there's some thirty percent

106
00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,640
Speaker 1: of his base, thirty percent of the Republican Party is

107
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,320
Speaker 1: hardcore MAGA. These are people who vote for Donald Trump

108
00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,000
Speaker 1: who may not have even been voting Republican before, but

109
00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,159
Speaker 1: they're the people who are showing up at rallies. They're

110
00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:55,360
Speaker 1: the people who are activated, They're the people who are

111
00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:59,359
Speaker 1: animated like this is that is something that political parties.

112
00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,800
Speaker 1: That's a huge built an advantage for political parties. And

113
00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,839
Speaker 1: DeSantis is very popular. I'm pretty favorable to DeSantis. There

114
00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:12,000
Speaker 1: is this congealing conventional wisdom and what's I think really

115
00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,640
Speaker 1: dangerous about that if you're a DeSantis person, is that

116
00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:19,640
Speaker 1: you're going to continue to inflame Donald Trump. And if

117
00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:24,240
Speaker 1: you have this if it smacks of this conspiratorial orchestration

118
00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:29,360
Speaker 1: from political professionals, whether than in Florida or DC. Voters

119
00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,440
Speaker 1: hate that. They hate that. And it happened all throughout

120
00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,240
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen. Everyone in DC thought they had the way

121
00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,160
Speaker 1: to stop Donald Trump. How many times did we hear

122
00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,360
Speaker 1: that this is what's going to do him in We're

123
00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,560
Speaker 1: going to take him down at the convention. We're going

124
00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,040
Speaker 1: to like, oh this thing that he said, he's done. No,

125
00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,880
Speaker 1: because there's that chunk of the party that loves the guy.

126
00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,839
Speaker 1: And he's not a politician, Franklin. That means he sort

127
00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:55,800
Speaker 1: of has fighting advantages. He can take everybody out because

128
00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,200
Speaker 1: he doesn't play by the rules. How does an indictment

129
00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,000
Speaker 1: play into the politics here? Let's say he gets an

130
00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,440
Speaker 1: does that rally Republicans around him? And is that bad

131
00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,640
Speaker 1: for DeSantis? Is Desanta's hoping that they back off him?

132
00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,280
Speaker 1: And Trump just continues to flail? And how does DeSantis

133
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:14,160
Speaker 1: weather this for a year? Like we're that that, we're

134
00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:18,320
Speaker 1: more than that, We're like fourteen months away from are

135
00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,640
Speaker 1: you guys doing Iowa still? I don't know? Actually, so

136
00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:25,080
Speaker 1: what Iowa, New Hampshire where wherever this ends up starting,

137
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:31,280
Speaker 1: It's fourteen months of him just savaging him. Well in

138
00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:34,080
Speaker 1: DeSantis so far, and this is the again you see

139
00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,840
Speaker 1: this among sort of the Dysantis And I don't say

140
00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,360
Speaker 1: this as a pejorative the Desantas fan club, because it

141
00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:43,680
Speaker 1: definitely exists. They're saying all DeSantis has to do is

142
00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:47,400
Speaker 1: stay quiet, and I think actually that's absolutely true because

143
00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,680
Speaker 1: Donald Trump just sort of talks into the ether. Right.

144
00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,280
Speaker 1: The people who are following Donald Trump on truth social

145
00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:54,360
Speaker 1: are the people who are following Donald Trump. They're the

146
00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:55,920
Speaker 1: people who go to the rallies. They're the people who

147
00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,560
Speaker 1: are you know, that are never going to leave from

148
00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:01,840
Speaker 1: the side of Donald Trump. And I don't know that

149
00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:05,280
Speaker 1: an indictment changes that. Sincerely, I don't know if an

150
00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,480
Speaker 1: indictment change that. We've heard it over and over again.

151
00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:12,160
Speaker 1: I said it before. This week, the Wednesday felt like

152
00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,560
Speaker 1: January seventh on the right, and in a sense that

153
00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:19,440
Speaker 1: there was finally it felt like once again, here we go.

154
00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,840
Speaker 1: He's done. We can kick him out, we can you know,

155
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,800
Speaker 1: orchestrate our purge. This is it or it's just sort

156
00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,239
Speaker 1: of this idea that you can quietly say Donald Trump

157
00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:30,240
Speaker 1: did what he needed to do for the party and

158
00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,199
Speaker 1: now we can move on to Ron DeSantis. Is there

159
00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,520
Speaker 1: anything he wants that the Republican Party can offer him

160
00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,920
Speaker 1: other than the president's right. I don't know, I mean,

161
00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,320
Speaker 1: can you think of anything. I think he wants to

162
00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:47,280
Speaker 1: be president. I think he wants to be vindicated. Yeah, yeah,

163
00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,120
Speaker 1: it's I mean, just you guys think Rhonda Santa's promises

164
00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,600
Speaker 1: to pardon him and all his children and everybody, like

165
00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,720
Speaker 1: he can have four year blanket pardon power anybody that

166
00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:57,520
Speaker 1: Trump wants to pardon. He just sends a note to

167
00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:04,480
Speaker 1: DeSantis that could get interesting. Pardon Steve Bannon like four times,

168
00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,320
Speaker 1: Pardon Lee Harvey Oswald because it was actually Tied Cruise's dad. Yeah,

169
00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:13,040
Speaker 1: he has to release the he has to release the JFK,

170
00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,000
Speaker 1: which is the most shameful thing that Trump did is

171
00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:20,080
Speaker 1: not release that. What a loser. Well also did Roger Stone.

172
00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,800
Speaker 1: You had one job, Rogers couldn't get your man to

173
00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,720
Speaker 1: release the JFK papers. So you know this is a

174
00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:31,400
Speaker 1: real This is a This has serious implications for the

175
00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:33,240
Speaker 1: way things are sort of panning out in the right.

176
00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,079
Speaker 1: To your point about how DeSantis Weather's it, I think

177
00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,560
Speaker 1: you can probably still just expect him to stay quiet

178
00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:40,760
Speaker 1: and be polite when he's asked about Donald Trump, which

179
00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,560
Speaker 1: again reinforces exactly what everybody likes about running. What we

180
00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:45,440
Speaker 1: need is a big bull of popcorn for the next year.

181
00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:49,240
Speaker 1: I'll take it. I'll take it again. Like Donald Trump

182
00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,000
Speaker 1: is said to announce his presidential run what next week,

183
00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:54,160
Speaker 1: A lot of people want him to put that on

184
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:57,359
Speaker 1: pause as well. I think that's also very very unlikely.

185
00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,720
Speaker 1: Who said the who said let Trump be Trump? A

186
00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:04,800
Speaker 1: bunch of those folks have said that. Again, it's the

187
00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:07,880
Speaker 1: conventional WI was Trump circles and so I'm going to

188
00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:11,520
Speaker 1: spoil it for everyone. They're going to let Trump be Trump.

189
00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:15,920
Speaker 1: There you go, all right? Moving on to the developments

190
00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,920
Speaker 1: on the ground in Ukraine, not just on the ground

191
00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,600
Speaker 1: in Ukraine, but also here. We had news yesterday on

192
00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:25,520
Speaker 1: the United States front from Jake Sullivan. Let's start with

193
00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:32,400
Speaker 1: a one which should be Washing Post headline, an exit

194
00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 1: from kersone city that's from Putin's orders. They're giving up

195
00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:39,120
Speaker 1: that key regional capital. Ryan. What's your reaction here? This

196
00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:44,839
Speaker 1: was the capital that Putin said six weeks ago would

197
00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:50,360
Speaker 1: be Russian forever. He orchestrated a referendum there. The you know,

198
00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:54,320
Speaker 1: the vote was ninety nine percent to zero or maybe

199
00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,160
Speaker 1: one percent. I'm staining or whatever, you know, one of

200
00:10:56,160 --> 00:11:01,800
Speaker 1: those hilarious lopsided elections that you're supposed to say, hmm,

201
00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,679
Speaker 1: not so sure that that was free and fair. Uh.

202
00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:08,880
Speaker 1: And so to to lose this without much of a

203
00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,960
Speaker 1: fight in six weeks after declaring that it would be

204
00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:17,520
Speaker 1: part of Russia forever is you know, utterly humiliating blow.

205
00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,240
Speaker 1: The best the best that the Russian Federation is saying

206
00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,480
Speaker 1: about it is that they're regrouping on the other side

207
00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,360
Speaker 1: of the river nearby. They've been doing an enormous amount

208
00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,360
Speaker 1: of regrouping over the last over the last several months,

209
00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:34,719
Speaker 1: before the Ukrainian assault caught them off guard. Over in

210
00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:38,280
Speaker 1: the East. They were really hoping that this winter was

211
00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:41,160
Speaker 1: was going to kind of bury Europe, that it would

212
00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:45,400
Speaker 1: lead to enough protests that you'd have right wing governments

213
00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:48,880
Speaker 1: taking over, and that there'd be enough public anger at

214
00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,880
Speaker 1: the war that that would be enough to pull the

215
00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,920
Speaker 1: funding back, pull the support back, and that and that

216
00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,680
Speaker 1: Russia would then either be able to just maintain all

217
00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,200
Speaker 1: its games or even continue to creep forward. Nothing is

218
00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:04,240
Speaker 1: going right on as it goes as that plan works.

219
00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:09,920
Speaker 1: Even the right wing Italian you know, Prime Minister maloney

220
00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:14,160
Speaker 1: is not anti Ukraine, even though the Italian publican polls

221
00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,320
Speaker 1: is actually turning against involvement in the war, probably the

222
00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,600
Speaker 1: most skeptical of any European country's public, but even their

223
00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,680
Speaker 1: right wing government. It's like, no, we're in this. There's

224
00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:29,000
Speaker 1: a heat wave going on now, like Putin's was praying for,

225
00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,120
Speaker 1: you know, the coldest winter that Europe seen in a

226
00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,280
Speaker 1: long time. It's like over seventy degrees in a lot

227
00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:40,840
Speaker 1: of Europe right now, late November, so, I mean that's

228
00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:47,040
Speaker 1: early November. So global warming might actually be undermining this

229
00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,800
Speaker 1: kind of oil producing country's war effort, which is which

230
00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:54,120
Speaker 1: is a little bit ironic. Meanwhile, to add insult to injury,

231
00:12:54,280 --> 00:13:00,480
Speaker 1: you put up the next element here, the Ukrainians open

232
00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,120
Speaker 1: fire on the Russians as they were retreating, saying that

233
00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:07,200
Speaker 1: they didn't ask for a green cord or to retreat.

234
00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,280
Speaker 1: This comes at the same time that you've seen reports

235
00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:14,680
Speaker 1: of the wives of Russian conscripts kind of storming into

236
00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:19,040
Speaker 1: the kind of back lines trying to find their husbands

237
00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:22,199
Speaker 1: and bring them back. Putin has relied for so long

238
00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:27,199
Speaker 1: on a demobilized public to maintain power, and this mobilization

239
00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:31,400
Speaker 1: is extremely dangerous for him because it doesn't mobilize just

240
00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,600
Speaker 1: troops for his war effort. It mobilizes Russian citizens to

241
00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,520
Speaker 1: once again be involved politically, and that's not a good

242
00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:43,120
Speaker 1: thing for him. Yeah. Well, and again to your point,

243
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:45,920
Speaker 1: this was supposed to be, in and of itself, kind

244
00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,720
Speaker 1: of an inflection point. This was going to be a

245
00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:53,040
Speaker 1: time when things were turning more closely into his favor. Meanwhile,

246
00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,920
Speaker 1: Jake Sullivan at the White House Press briefing yesterday came

247
00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,840
Speaker 1: out and I believe he announced that we're providing an

248
00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:04,960
Speaker 1: additional aid package. Is that right? Yeah? So what what

249
00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:09,320
Speaker 1: struck you most about the Jack Sullivan announcement? Well, yeah,

250
00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,760
Speaker 1: and he also said, I have the quote here right

251
00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:15,440
Speaker 1: in front of me. He also said basically that you

252
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,880
Speaker 1: can see he saw the signs of the possible Russian

253
00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:22,080
Speaker 1: pull out from Cersone, and so it sounds like that

254
00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:27,280
Speaker 1: our government is feeling pretty good that the momentum is continuing,

255
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,240
Speaker 1: not going not not first shifting to the side, but

256
00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:35,040
Speaker 1: continuing to shift on the side of Ukraine. And that's

257
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 1: where you know they are not going to course, they're

258
00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:43,320
Speaker 1: not going to do, for instance, what the Congressional Progressive

259
00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,960
Speaker 1: Caucus letter you know said to do in public, although

260
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,240
Speaker 1: we have indications from the Washington Post rights Sullivan is

261
00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,640
Speaker 1: in conversations with his counterpart in Russia, which is precisely

262
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,080
Speaker 1: what the letter was asking for. Yes, although it was

263
00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,680
Speaker 1: I think also asking for some public acknowledgment that we

264
00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:03,880
Speaker 1: were sort of prioritiz some type of pressure because the

265
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:08,080
Speaker 1: narrative had been for so long that diplomacy is impossible

266
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:12,240
Speaker 1: and irresponsible in a situation like this, and dark Brandon

267
00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:13,800
Speaker 1: kind of feeling his oats as well. We talked a

268
00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,120
Speaker 1: little bit yesterday about this moment from the press conference.

269
00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,240
Speaker 1: We have the we have the sound from it here.

270
00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:21,960
Speaker 1: This sol back and forth I thought was pretty revealing.

271
00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:27,000
Speaker 1: Russia today claimed that it had evacuated the Croissana region

272
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:28,800
Speaker 1: in the Chissan city. Do you believe that this is

273
00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:32,200
Speaker 1: potentially an inflection point in that conflict? And do you

274
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,840
Speaker 1: believe that Ukraine now has the leverage it needs to

275
00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,920
Speaker 1: begin peace and negotiations with Moscow? First of all, I

276
00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 1: found it interesting, and they waited till after election to

277
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 1: make that judgment, which we knew for some time that

278
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,040
Speaker 1: they were going to be doing, And they said, this

279
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,680
Speaker 1: is the fact that they have some real problems Russian

280
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:55,680
Speaker 1: the Russian military number one, number two, whether or not

281
00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:59,440
Speaker 1: that leads to a minimum that will lead to uh

282
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:04,320
Speaker 1: to for everyone to re calibrate their positions over the

283
00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 1: winners period, and there remains to be seen whether or

284
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:12,480
Speaker 1: not there will be a judgment made as to whether

285
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:16,960
Speaker 1: or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia. I'm

286
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,320
Speaker 1: going to be going to the G twenty. I'm told

287
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,440
Speaker 1: that President Putin is not likely to be there, but

288
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:24,760
Speaker 1: other world leaders are going to be there in Indonesia,

289
00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,320
Speaker 1: and we're going to have an opportunity to see what

290
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,720
Speaker 1: the next steps may be. Yeah. So there he's saying

291
00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:33,760
Speaker 1: that they knew that this was coming, and he finds

292
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 1: it interesting that Putin waited until after the midterms. Kind

293
00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 1: of an interesting observation. And then later in his remarks

294
00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:47,640
Speaker 1: he says, we'll see whether you know and where Ukraine

295
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,840
Speaker 1: is when it comes to making compromises, which at least

296
00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:59,160
Speaker 1: has the US talking publicly about what compromises are going

297
00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:00,880
Speaker 1: to lead to the end of the war, because I

298
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:05,040
Speaker 1: think that is a huge that's a huge inflection point

299
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 1: because for so long the line has been and I

300
00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,200
Speaker 1: think you could have missed the importance of that line.

301
00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 1: The line has been that the US supports whatever the

302
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 1: Ukrainians are doing exactly full stop. And the Ukrainians have

303
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,680
Speaker 1: been saying, you know what, not only do we want

304
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:28,600
Speaker 1: every you know, Russian boot off of every inch of

305
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,760
Speaker 1: Ukrainians territory, including all the dumbos which has been contested

306
00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:34,800
Speaker 1: since twenty fourteen, we're also going to take Crimea back.

307
00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:39,600
Speaker 1: In twenty fourteen, not even John McCain wanted to go

308
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:43,120
Speaker 1: to war with Russia over that illegal annexation of Crimea.

309
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:48,000
Speaker 1: The result, there were sanctions, there's public statements of condemnation,

310
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,880
Speaker 1: but the idea that you would have a hot war

311
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:55,120
Speaker 1: between these two countries over that was not something that

312
00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,520
Speaker 1: anybody in the US, even the most hawkish people thought

313
00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,520
Speaker 1: was in the best in the of the United States.

314
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,959
Speaker 1: Right well, frankly even necessarily the Ukrainian people, although that's

315
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,640
Speaker 1: up to them to decide, but it's up for us

316
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,880
Speaker 1: to decide what we support, right well, that's what that's

317
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 1: what Biden is inching towards right there by talking about

318
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 1: the need for compromise to end this. Yes, and without

319
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,680
Speaker 1: our support, there is no real fight at this point

320
00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 1: because it would be I mean, listen, the Ukrainian people

321
00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 1: have shown incredible bravery and the casualties are just tragic,

322
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:33,439
Speaker 1: I mean especially it's just the announcement. Yes, it was

323
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,159
Speaker 1: a possibly one hundred thousand on the Russian side, in

324
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,720
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand on the Ukrainian side. It don't believe

325
00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,879
Speaker 1: any numbers that are that round, but you can believe

326
00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,639
Speaker 1: the scale, the scale, absolutely scale of misery. And so

327
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 1: Jake Selvin said that we were announcing another package of

328
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,240
Speaker 1: security systems for Ukraine, and that includes air defense contributions

329
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,840
Speaker 1: like missiles for Hawk air defense systems as well as

330
00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 1: for US Avenger air defense systems equipped with Stinger missiles.

331
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 1: And so Ryan, I'm curious if you think that announcement

332
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 1: was made in conjunction with their cersone thing as a

333
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 1: with his with with Jake Sullivan's perspective on cersone, are

334
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,080
Speaker 1: we seeing the United States start to see it like

335
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:19,360
Speaker 1: this is in sight, like there's an end in sight there?

336
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 1: Certainly does seem to be an end insight. Whether or

337
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,879
Speaker 1: not Putin sees it is I think an open question,

338
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,119
Speaker 1: but it does seem from these developments that that the

339
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 1: US sees it. And then the question is what does

340
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 1: does Ukraine see it exactly? Or and does? But but

341
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 1: the key question of course is does Putin see it?

342
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 1: Does and how does Putin get out of it and

343
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 1: maintain his position in power? Because the Ukrainians are still saying,

344
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 1: we're not going to negotiate with Putin, we want the

345
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,200
Speaker 1: next leader. And it's like this, we're not regime change,

346
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,359
Speaker 1: We're not really trying to do regime change. Yeah, well,

347
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,879
Speaker 1: maybe maybe you are, and maybe we there were some

348
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,160
Speaker 1: there were some people who wanted to do regime change.

349
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 1: It would be absurd because the most likely outcome is

350
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,399
Speaker 1: a much further right yes. And that's and one of

351
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 1: the problems with we have we not learned that lesson? Yeah,

352
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 1: the problem with the propagandistic demonization of all of our

353
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 1: adversaries around the world is that it clouds us to

354
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,120
Speaker 1: the reality that it could get worse. Yes, because we've

355
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 1: built people up to be these like incredible monsters who

356
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,399
Speaker 1: can't think rationally and can't be negotiated with. So the

357
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 1: only possibility that is, well, you got to get rid

358
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,720
Speaker 1: of them, Well, somebody's going to replace them. An a

359
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 1: close look at Russian politics doesn't show that there's much

360
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,199
Speaker 1: of a progressive wing. So if the progressive wing is

361
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 1: in prison, what's left of it? So, speaking of the

362
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 1: progressive wing here in the United States, this week, I

363
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:43,680
Speaker 1: interviewed Alexandria Kasyuo Kortez and I asked her about her

364
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 1: position on Ukraine, and particularly about the absence of a

365
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: real kind of progressive position in Congress on the question

366
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 1: of peace between Ukraine and Russia. We can play a

367
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: little bit of it clip here. Democrats also hammered progressives

368
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 1: for that CPC letter encouraging the pursuit of negotiations to

369
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 1: end the war in Ukraine, saying that like doing it

370
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 1: right before the election would end up hurting Democrats. That letter,

371
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 1: as you know, that was retracted. You never you never

372
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 1: commented on that on whether you still stood by it,

373
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 1: And you and other progressives have been kind of criticized

374
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,479
Speaker 1: for not laying out your thinking on kind of what

375
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 1: the progressive position ought to be when it comes to

376
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 1: this war. I don't know if you saw this a

377
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 1: Russia just announced it's withdrawing from Curson, which is a

378
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,199
Speaker 1: massive defeat for them. But so, why hasn't there been

379
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 1: more of a progressive voice on the debate over war

380
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 1: funding and what's your thinking on what the US approach

381
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: should be now, Yeah, well, you know, I think and

382
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 1: I think, you know, to be clear, both the decision

383
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 1: to publish that letter at that time and withdraw that

384
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,919
Speaker 1: letter at that time, we're just that we were not

385
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 1: made privy to. But in terms of the content of

386
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: the letter, like timing aside, in terms of the content

387
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: of the letter, I believe that a lot of it

388
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 1: is quite consistent with what we've also been hearing from

389
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 1: former Obama administration, of the Biden administration, and now even

390
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: recently there have also been you know, there has also

391
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 1: been I believe, some developments coming out of Ukraine indicating

392
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:15,679
Speaker 1: an openness to negotiat and negotiate under certain preconditions. And

393
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 1: you know, I believe that progressives have always advocated to

394
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 1: to leaning on diplomatic solutions. We should continue to lean

395
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 1: on that. Uh. You know, I just I think that

396
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: the large asterisk is is will Russia is Russia. How

397
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: can we bring Russia to the table without without compromising

398
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: Ukrainian sovereignty and just core principles of self determination. But

399
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 1: that is really what the landscape of diplomacy is about.

400
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 1: And even when Obama was on pasitive America. Several weeks ago,

401
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 1: he discussed about how at this present time, diplomatic relations

402
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: are likely worse than they may have been almost at

403
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 1: any point during the Cold War, which is a very

404
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 1: dangerous place to be. And so, so, you know, the

405
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:06,479
Speaker 1: the reaction to the publication of this letter, I, you know,

406
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 1: I think continues to be a bit overblown, and I

407
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: think that there's almost a it's almost like people are

408
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 1: looking for a problem where they're really I don't think

409
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 1: is any intent for there to be one. And I

410
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,199
Speaker 1: also think that it's quite consistent with what we've been

411
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: hearing from Frankly, the Biden administration, formal Bide administration officials,

412
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 1: and even certain Ukrainian officials. And when it comes to,

413
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: you know, that recent development in Russia, I do believe

414
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 1: that there's some skepticism that we're hearing from from Ukrainian

415
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 1: officials about whether that is in you know, the the

416
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 1: the genuine iss or authenticy or good faith that announcement

417
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 1: was made. But you know, I think that's something that

418
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: that we will that we will soon see play out.

419
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 1: A couple of highlights of that include your furious typing

420
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 1: and your kids in the background so what did you

421
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 1: make of her comments? Again, I from the perspective of

422
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 1: somebody kind of outside the left, it's really interesting to

423
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,640
Speaker 1: hear her say, listen, we were not privy to what

424
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: was happening with that retraction. Yeah, right, that so everyone

425
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,159
Speaker 1: has thrown the initial letter under the bus. It's interesting

426
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 1: to see her throw the retraction of the letter under

427
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 1: the bus. Yes, yeah, I'm sure she got a call. Actually, really,

428
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: I would think about that. People can read the full

429
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 1: Q and A over at the intercept. It's broken up

430
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 1: into two parts. The question, the outstanding question, which I

431
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 1: didn't follow up on I should have, but I moved

432
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 1: back to abortion rights questions, is well, what what is

433
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 1: the role of Congress? Okay, so Congress tried to do

434
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 1: this letter. It may actually have had some impact by

435
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 1: having a creating a four day conversation about negotiations. Well,

436
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 1: how long was it after that we found out that

437
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 1: the Biden administration we've yet we found that out, and

438
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 1: then you had and then all of a sudden you

439
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 1: started seeing other people coming forward saying, yeah, actually, there's

440
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 1: nothing nothing wrong with this. So even in retreat, they

441
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,479
Speaker 1: may have taken one for the team there, But what

442
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 1: else can they do now? Do they have enough votes

443
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 1: to be relevant players on this? You know, I suspect

444
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: that the Lame Duck will see a big war spending

445
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,239
Speaker 1: package because they won't want to leave it in the

446
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 1: hands of an uncertain Congress going forward. Well, and especially if,

447
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 1: as we were talking about, there's a sense that there's

448
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 1: some blood in the water that if you sort of

449
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 1: double down right now, because then you said you're sending

450
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 1: a signal that could be you could like that, would

451
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: you you would from the defenders of a package like that,

452
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: they would say, this is actually diplomatic because we're going

453
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 1: to approve another x billion dollars and that's going to

454
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 1: be such a morale blow it to the Russians that

455
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 1: they're going to say, okay, you know what, fine, like

456
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: what can we keep the right? And then you sit

457
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 1: and then you sit down and drawn into the war

458
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 1: right like that's as people keep saying in Europe leaders

459
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,719
Speaker 1: over there, war's end, Like wars have to end, they

460
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 1: usually end with negotiations, So let's get them going faster.

461
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 1: And so if it's clear in the Lame Duck that

462
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: the US is like in this with another eighty billion

463
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 1: dollars or whatever insane amount they're going to put on

464
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 1: the table. But then the question is what role do

465
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 1: the progressives have there? And because so many curious if

466
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 1: you're taking on it, so many Republicans are for this spending,

467
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 1: You've got plenty that there are against it, You've got

468
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: plenty that are still for it. That means a block

469
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 1: of four or five six Democrats who would be able

470
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 1: to stop a partisan bill. Because Democrats only have two

471
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty two right now in the lame Duck

472
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: or whatever it is. So if you can get five Democrats, boom,

473
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: Pelosi doesn't have a majority anymore, right, five Democrats voting

474
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 1: no on war funding, you just got to go find

475
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: five Republicans. No. I think the interview actually in the

476
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 1: points in the interview, and I actually think now that

477
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 1: we're talking about sort of that shift from the retraction,

478
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: the actually the entire krefuffle with that underscores is the

479
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 1: need for progressives and serious peace minded conservatives to be

480
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: like extremely dogged right now, because that's how you push

481
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 1: people to the negotiating table, and that's how you continue

482
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,640
Speaker 1: to shift the Overton window towards negotiations, because if you're

483
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 1: not shifting the window to negotiations, and if you're not

484
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,399
Speaker 1: seriously doing that, if these conversations aren't happening, and it

485
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: isn't clear to party leadership that progressives conservatives are willing

486
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: to negotiate to get or or are willing to stand

487
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 1: firm to get to negotiations, are willing to withhold votes

488
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 1: to get to a point of negotiation, or to ensure

489
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 1: that that's a priority for leadership and it's not something

490
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 1: silly that's like we're dismissed as you know, the cranks perspective.

491
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 1: That's why I think it's really important. Actually, this underscorees

492
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,959
Speaker 1: how important it is for progressives conservatives who are who

493
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 1: are on the negotiation side that are less hawkish, to

494
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 1: be very like not to say, okay, we kind of

495
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 1: we got them talking and they're doing what we asked for,

496
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 1: so now we can sort of go along and get along.

497
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 1: Absolutely not if anything is the opposite right, And in

498
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 1: all wars, all the time, the camp that's arguing against

499
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 1: war is in the weakest position when there when their

500
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: side is rolling to victory. But there have been so

501
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,440
Speaker 1: many opportunities that people have lost to reach a peace

502
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 1: agreement because they were rolling to victory, and they thought

503
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: that right around the corner. And then four years later,

504
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 1: you're still fighting, You're still fighting, still spending crazy amounts

505
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 1: of money, still losing just an unbelievable amount of people. Yeah,

506
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: that's the last thing that we would want to happen.

507
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: It doesn't have to happen. It doesn't have to happen.

508
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: Back here in the United States, some wild developments in

509
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 1: the mid term so far. So we had a call

510
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:55,719
Speaker 1: in the Arizona Senate race from it was from Wasserman.

511
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: But it does it looks solid, it looks I mean

512
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: this until Mark Kelly beating Blake Masters is what they're calling.

513
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: You asked me this question yesterday. I think the Master's

514
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 1: Camp and the carry Lake camp both still feel good now.

515
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: Dave Washerman saying it's hard to see a path. It's

516
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 1: so hard to see a path forward that you know

517
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: it's unlikely that Masters can pull it off. I think

518
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: is probably a sign that the optimism and the Master's

519
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 1: camp is over inflated. And you know that's always the

520
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 1: case with campaigns. They're always overly they're projecting optimism, and

521
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 1: sometimes it's very sincere and real because they have a

522
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 1: lot of blood sweat and tears on the line. But

523
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Arizona because of this, because of

524
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 1: what happened in Maricopa County. There's an election official in

525
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: Maericopa County yesterday saying some four hundred thousand ballot ballots

526
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: weren't going to be counted until like Monday, but he

527
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 1: didn't know when they were actually going to be counted,

528
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 1: which just inflamed a lot of folks on the right.

529
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: So with that happening, I mean, washerman could call it

530
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: for can call from Mark Kelly. I think that that's

531
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: a very plausible outcome. I also think things in Arizona

532
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: are about to get really hairy, and I think there's

533
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 1: going to be a lot of sort of litigation. Yeah,

534
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: and I think so, I think it's worth calling out

535
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:21,719
Speaker 1: some democratic hypocrisy in Arizona. Here is the situation that

536
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: you had on election day or there was some mechanical

537
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: failures and other problems. Twenty percent of the election machines

538
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 1: in Maricopa County were down in that morning, so that

539
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 1: led to very long lines. The Republicans sued to try

540
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: to get an extended time period. Often those extensions are granted.

541
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: This time that judge said, you didn't demonstrate, you know,

542
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 1: whether or not anybody was unable to vote as a

543
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: result of this, and Democrats just said, okay, well, good

544
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 1: for us, we won that one. But historically that argument

545
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 1: would have been left out of the room. Like long

546
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: lines suppression are by definition suppression. That's what Democrats have

547
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 1: always said. And Democrats have always been correct about that,

548
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 1: because you drive by the polling place and it's a

549
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 1: two hour line you drive on, and just because you

550
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: can't prove, you know, that person didn't like register somewhere

551
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 1: like that, so that person's vote was suppressed as a

552
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,719
Speaker 1: result of it. I'm sure that happened in Americopa County,

553
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: and I'm sure it has happened in cities all across

554
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: the country over the last fifty years where they have

555
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: kind of either manufactured or through incompetence, you know, produced

556
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: these these long lines, or just through the kind of

557
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,239
Speaker 1: structural pressures of so many people living and so with

558
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: so few precincts. And this also goes to a prison

559
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 1: that or a trap that Republicans have built for themselves.

560
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 1: So what they did is they convinced all of their

561
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: voters that early voting is not safe. If it's fraudulent,

562
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: you're you're wrong if you do this. And so, as

563
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 1: a result, in a place like Maricopa County, which is

564
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 1: heavily Democratic and where the Democratic Party kind of oversees

565
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: the election machinery, the actual the election day voters are Republican. Right,

566
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: the election day voters are Republican, And in this case,

567
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: the Secretary of State is on the ballot and refuse

568
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 1: to re yes. That was the thing that what Rafensberger

569
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 1: did against Abrams in twenty eighteen, which Abrams and Democrats

570
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 1: used to call that election corrupt for years. So is

571
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 1: this why is this any different? And it's not just

572
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: the potential for software updates to go badly and boy,

573
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: what a shame you've got these three hour lines now

574
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 1: or whatever or whatever cause these malfunctions. The Republicans are

575
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 1: also setting themselves up for weather events. I think if

576
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 1: Laxalt loses, it is likely because of a freak snowstorm

577
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 1: in Reno and Rain and Nevada. In Las Vegas on

578
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: election day, you were talking to some folks who were like, hey,

579
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 1: if the weather's bad, that's the best thing that could

580
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: happened to Catherine Cortez Master, right, I was talking to

581
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: Republican this Republican operative who was working on the campaign

582
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 1: or you're working on an outside campaign, and that morning

583
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: and he's likely. We're in really good shape in Nevada.

584
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: I'm feeling very good about it. We're hearing it might

585
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 1: snow in Reno in my reign in Vegas, and if

586
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 1: it does, that sucks, but I think we're still okay.

587
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 1: It was, But this is an era of climate change.

588
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 1: You're going to get freak weather events all the time.

589
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: And so if you have three weeks to vote and

590
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 1: you get two weeks of freak weather, you still have

591
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: a whole week to get your ballot in. If you

592
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: have ten hours to vote, you are, over the long run,

593
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 1: going to get hit with freak weather events in some

594
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 1: of those ten hour stretches. And you're also going to

595
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 1: get hit with malfunctioning computers. And some of those computers

596
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 1: might malfunction just because you don't now, you don't have

597
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 1: democratic officials that are that incentivized to make things run

598
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 1: perfectly on election day because guess who's coming out to

599
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: vote three to one Republicans or whatever, like, yeah, you guys,

600
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 1: hate you guys won't fund our elections. You know, we

601
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: asked for more money, the legislature rejected us. You wouldn't

602
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 1: let us start counting ballots. You kind of doing everything

603
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: you can to slow down our ability to get this going.

604
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 1: You made us spend two years going through these audits.

605
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, you know what, maybe we don't do the

606
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: maintenance on these machines as fast as we could have.

607
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 1: You can't. It's very it'll be hard to prove that

608
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: that was malicious. But the incentives that Republicans have created

609
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 1: are for Democrats to be like, oh yeah, you know,

610
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 1: real shame about those machines. Well, yeah, I don't disagree

611
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 1: with that, although I will also say what, I don't

612
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 1: even want to gloss over this because I think it's

613
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 1: hugely important that when the bill in Georgia was up

614
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: for debate that Brian Kemp ended up signing, voter turnout

615
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 1: was really high in Georgia. That doesn't necessarily negate the

616
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 1: argument that the bill was suppressive to some extent, but

617
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 1: I think the evidence suggests that it was not. It

618
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 1: was if that was the goal, Yeah, yeah, And on

619
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 1: that case, I mean it was a milder even the

620
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 1: that it implemented were milder than a lot of other

621
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: states have, including those Delaware, the home of the President

622
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: of the United States, who referred to that law as

623
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,359
Speaker 1: Jim Eagle, who referred to it as Jim Crow two

624
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 1: point zero. And what drives me crazy is how the

625
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 1: media ran with that narrative and what we're seeing right

626
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 1: now in Maricopa County. I actually, I don't I would

627
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 1: quibble with the label suppression. I don't think it was malicious.

628
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 1: I think it was incompetent, and I think it looks

629
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,879
Speaker 1: really bad and it's really bad for institutional trust. All

630
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 1: that said, by their own definitions and their own metrics,

631
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 1: democrats and the media are just like almost gleeful about it,

632
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: as opposed to like highly highly concerned. And so the

633
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 1: way that the media constructs narratives. We've talked about this before,

634
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 1: we talked about it last week. I think, I mean,

635
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 1: it's just incredible how they can create alternate realities and

636
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 1: have everybody talking about Jim Eagle Jim Crow two point zero,

637
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 1: and then you see something like this happen and it's

638
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 1: just crickets. So the suppression and which we don't have

639
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 1: a call on yet, that was from the Lord from

640
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: the skies, but divine intervention. Yeah, according to people who

641
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 1: are watching this really closely, they feel like, at least

642
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 1: the people that I'm seeing, Maybe tell me if your

643
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 1: kind of feed is telling you something different, that Cortez

644
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 1: Mastow has a very very very very strong path. It

645
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: looks good to reelection, right, Yeah, which that means that

646
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 1: Warnock would be fifty one if he wins, yeah, or

647
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 1: fifty and they'd still control the Senate regardless of what

648
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 1: happens with the Georgia. And the strange place we've been

649
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 1: in for the last two days is that you can

650
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 1: either have Democrats actually ending up losing both Houses of Congress,

651
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 1: losing the House and losing the Senate, or you can

652
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: have Republicans failing to capture even the House. I mean,

653
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 1: that could end up, as Ryan suggested earlier around two seventeen,

654
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:54,240
Speaker 1: a one vote margin for either Kevin McCarthy or Nancy

655
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: Pelosi or Hakim Jeffers or whoever steps into that vacuum,

656
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 1: which is just none of these outcomes were like on

657
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: They weren't on my radar that it would be that

658
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: close at all. So let's have some fun with that one.

659
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 1: So the House of Representatives on Friday after the election

660
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 1: is genuinely still in play. And so if you're listening

661
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 1: to this on the podcast you're watching on YouTube, i'd

662
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: suggest pausing and writing some of these downs. You can

663
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 1: have fun with these over the weekend following some of

664
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: these House races as the votes are coming in. So

665
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: currently the Republicans look to have the lead in about

666
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:36,919
Speaker 1: two hundred and eleven districts, with Democrats having the lead

667
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 1: in about well no, Republicans have about two hundred and

668
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 1: eleven called Democrats lead in two hundred and fourteen. In

669
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,760
Speaker 1: other words, Republicans are in the lead, and if everything

670
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 1: stays at as it is, they will narrowly win the House.

671
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:56,280
Speaker 1: But there are there are a significant number of races

672
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: that could flip. And here are the ones that Daniel

673
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 1: at Taniel eight at Tanil He's great if you don't

674
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 1: follow him for elections, so good. What's the name of

675
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: his new publication? I don't know. Well, I'll try to

676
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:13,359
Speaker 1: remember it and put it in. I'll give Hi an

677
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 1: extra tweet for forgetting the name of his new publication.

678
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 1: But it's great. So here are the races. So Arizona

679
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 1: six Democrats are slightly trailing in that, but there's a

680
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: lot left to go. California three, and then he lists

681
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:33,799
Speaker 1: also California thirteen, twenty two, twenty seven, forty one, and

682
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 1: forty five. A couple of those, forty one in particular,

683
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: I think thirteen in particular are very close. Colorado three,

684
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 1: which is Bobert that we'll see looks like she's pulling

685
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 1: it off. Looks like she's pulling it off. And then

686
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 1: there's some weird shenanigans going on with the They fired

687
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 1: the election counter in Pueblo. Did you see this? I didn't.

688
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 1: It'll it's this is going to recount either way, and

689
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 1: the Secretary of State has sent a new supervisor into

690
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 1: Pueblo saying that the supervisor screwed up. The Democratic supervisor.

691
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 1: They're screwed up. That one will go to recount. That

692
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 1: could decide it. Then New York twenty two, which Republicans

693
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: are up by about two thousand in right now. That

694
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:17,879
Speaker 1: looks fairly strong for Republicans. But then Oregon five, and

695
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: so they need to win four of the ones that

696
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:24,839
Speaker 1: I just listed, and I think there's two in California

697
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,839
Speaker 1: that they have a very solid shot on because in California,

698
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 1: the votes become more democratic as they continue to count.

699
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 1: That's been the pattern. More young people vote super late

700
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 1: on election day, they drop their mail ballot in and

701
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 1: so it could take weeks for us to know these

702
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 1: but historically the pattern has been that every day that

703
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,320
Speaker 1: goes on, the democratic margin grows, which they've got to

704
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 1: get a better system because it just feeds paranoia, like

705
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 1: it's not like, this is not corrupt. There is a

706
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: reason you can explain exactly why it happens this way.

707
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,919
Speaker 1: Hong people procrastinate, but still Republicans look at it and like, boy,

708
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 1: isn't that interesting. We thought we had it, and then

709
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:06,359
Speaker 1: all of a sudden the votes are gone. So there's

710
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:10,359
Speaker 1: at least two there and then Arizona six. I think

711
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 1: it's probably their best shot to get the third and

712
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 1: then there and then the fourth, which would be two

713
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 1: hundred and eighteen, would be Oregon five, which is Jamie

714
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,880
Speaker 1: McLeod Skinner. It's an interesting race. Progressive who knocked Kurt Schrader,

715
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 1: who was one of the unbreakable nine, this like right

716
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 1: wing democrat who held up built the Build Back Better bill.

717
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 1: She primaried him, she beat him, and then the D

718
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 1: Triple C did invest almost two million dollars in the race,

719
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 1: but then left in the last several weeks of the race.

720
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 1: You know, they say that they were expecting the House

721
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:46,319
Speaker 1: Majority pack to come in, because that's how it works

722
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: in general, like D Triple C super pac does a

723
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, then House Majority pack, the other super

724
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 1: pac comes in. House Majority pack did not come in

725
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 1: like too progressive, not going to win. And so if

726
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,320
Speaker 1: they lose a race because they felt the Cannate was

727
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,840
Speaker 1: too progressive, and she loses by less than a thousand

728
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 1: votes and as a result, they lose the House after

729
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 1: instead spending the money on Sean Patrick Maloney, the D

730
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 1: Triple C chair who lost. I'd like to say there'd

731
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 1: be a reckoning, but I've been doing this long enough

732
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 1: that they're probably there, probably won't be, But so that

733
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,880
Speaker 1: means you're the most likely outcome I see from this,

734
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 1: hilariously is two eighteen for Republicans wild, which means that

735
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 1: over the next year, if that happens, over the next year,

736
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: there's a considerable chance that there's an open seat for

737
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 1: some reason, and then there's a special election for control

738
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 1: of the House of Representatives. And again we're kind of

739
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 1: gonna see something like that in Georgia on the Senate side. Likely,

740
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 1: it depends on how some of these racist shakeout, Nevada

741
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,960
Speaker 1: being one of them. But we're we're seeing the runoff

742
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: turn into something like that kind of but a special

743
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 1: election for control of the House in the next year.

744
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: I mean, just think during the special election, then it's

745
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 1: two seventeen, two seventeen, right, right, right right? What do

746
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,320
Speaker 1: you do with that? What do you do with it? Period?

747
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 1: I mean, what happens in Washington, This could get really

748
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 1: interesting actually at deadlocked House. Yeah, anti trust, wild, just wild,

749
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 1: so extremely wild. And on the right. There are some

750
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 1: complaints also about McCarthy and what we were just talking

751
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 1: about with the d trip, that he put money into

752
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 1: places that they didn't need. I mean, we could talk

753
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 1: about McConnell and McCarthy both, but a lot of that

754
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 1: is he was very proud that he recruited and fielded

755
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 1: a lot of female candidates, a lot of minority candidates

756
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 1: in particular, and there's a little bit of I think anger,

757
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: irritation that the money wasn't apportioned in the right way

758
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 1: races that were more winnable as opposed to races that

759
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: were to prove, you know, somebody like Myra Flores could

760
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 1: hang on to these D plus fourteen redrawn district with

761
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 1: san Antonio in it. She cut into that margin, She

762
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 1: cut into the she upper fromed Trump in the district.

763
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 1: But you know that was never it was it was

764
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,760
Speaker 1: really never probably going to happen. But then if she doesn't,

765
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:00,760
Speaker 1: it's tough because if you don't be in that race,

766
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 1: then you get dunked on for that. Like, I do

767
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 1: feel some sympathy for people at the end of this

768
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 1: because you know you're going to get You're going to

769
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 1: get hammered for some of the races that you miss.

770
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 1: It's just it's just going to happen. So we've got

771
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:17,280
Speaker 1: Orncasset in about six minutes. Can we do Elon Musk

772
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: that quickly? Or is he so much of a dumpster

773
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 1: fire that we need more time. I think we can

774
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 1: do him in five minutes. I think I think we

775
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 1: can handle Elon here. So let's start with CEE one.

776
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: This is a tweet from Brionna Wu. What a disaster

777
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 1: unfolding at Twitter. But by the way, I don't think

778
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 1: any of this is unforeseen disaster from on Elon Musk

779
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 1: scale of it. Yeah, so senior people at Twitter resigned

780
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 1: in the last forty eight hours. We now know why.

781
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 1: They said in private slack channels that Elon Musk is

782
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 1: so desperate to recoup his money. He's taking crazy risks

783
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 1: with your privacy and safer safety. Brianna Wu continue to

784
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 1: say Twitter is extremely hackable right now. Every user is

785
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 1: at risk. Elon wants his money. The FCC just announced

786
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 1: they're investigating. They have the power to find Twitter billions.

787
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 1: All right, so this is yeah, everybody's resigning, like right, people,

788
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 1: even people that were senior executives who were publicly defending him,

789
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:13,439
Speaker 1: and that Elon Musk was holding up as like, look,

790
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 1: I'm not a bad guy. This person that you all

791
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 1: really respect is still publicly defending me. He's an executive

792
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 1: here at Twitter. Those people have resigned. Yeah, can we

793
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 1: put C two up on the up on the screen.

794
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 1: This is from the New York Times. Elon Musk says

795
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 1: the economic picture ahead is dire. That's from his first

796
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 1: communication with Twitter staff. And more people are resigning, more

797
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: people out the door, and he's saying he floated bankruptcy, right,

798
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 1: he floated bankruptcy. Which what are your thoughts on that

799
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:45,359
Speaker 1: because to my point earlier that I don't there's this

800
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: perception that Elon Musk is just in over his head

801
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: at Twitter, and I don't think. I think he absolutely

802
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,359
Speaker 1: knew that this was all likely to unfold exactly as

803
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 1: it's unfolding. Again. My perspective is that the best thing

804
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,479
Speaker 1: that could happen is is Elon Musk by Twitter nukes

805
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 1: it from orbit. But you may get your wish, I

806
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 1: might get my wish, But I don't think any of

807
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 1: this is unforeseen, and I don't think the bankruptcy floating

808
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 1: is like shocking in the least bit. So one of

809
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 1: the pieces that he probably did not foresee did you

810
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:17,360
Speaker 1: see that? Did you see the way in which Twitter

811
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 1: missed out on something like, you know, half of its

812
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 1: revenue at this annual sales conference recently, So that if

813
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:28,360
Speaker 1: you weren't following this, that there's there's a conference that

814
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 1: comes at the end of every year where corporations kind

815
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 1: of bank you know, a lot of their ad spending

816
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 1: and then the and then media companies then can bank

817
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: on getting like X amount we're going to get you know,

818
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 1: eight hundred million dollars from these this group of corporations

819
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:47,439
Speaker 1: now we know that we need to go and get

820
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 1: another one point three billion from all of other different programs.

821
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 1: It was a disaster on a number of levels. There

822
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 1: were some there and Elon Musk blames activists who are

823
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 1: at the who were at the convention telling and so

824
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 1: what the activists were telling the corporations was Elon Musk

825
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 1: is planning to you know, monkey with the verification. So

826
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 1: there's going to be a lot of like spam and

827
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 1: stuff that you can't you know, you can't tell if

828
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 1: it's true or not. And he's going to let all

829
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 1: kinds of hate speech run wild on the site. And

830
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 1: so the corporations went to you know, the Twitter executives

831
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 1: and said, here's what we're hearing from these activists, what

832
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,840
Speaker 1: can you tell us? And they didn't get anything that

833
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 1: satisfied them on these questions, and so they said, all right,

834
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 1: we're going to pause our spending and so boom, there's

835
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 1: like a billion dollars like out the door. So there's that.

836
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 1: Then you've got one of the guys I was talking

837
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:42,360
Speaker 1: about was Yoel Roth. He was the head of Trust

838
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:46,439
Speaker 1: and Safety, who Musk was, you know, saying like, look,

839
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:50,360
Speaker 1: Yoel's with me. He's still here, Like you can trust

840
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 1: me because you trust Yoel, and Yo'll trusts me, and

841
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 1: Yoel's like, I'm out by the transitive property of trust, yes,

842
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 1: which there's something to that, like if somebody, if somebody

843
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 1: that you trust at Twitter is like, you know, look,

844
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 1: I'm I'm with Elana, he's got a vision. We're going

845
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 1: to go for this. And then the head of sales,

846
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 1: Robin Wheeler, also quitting, right, like, these are not positions

847
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,840
Speaker 1: that you want to see, you know, vacant, but again,

848
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 1: if you care about this thing functioning. And then there

849
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 1: was another report I forget where it was saying that

850
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 1: a lot of the engineers are worried that that pieces

851
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 1: of it are just going to gradually stop working. Sure,

852
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 1: and have you noticed anything, No, I mean, it's he's

853
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:34,879
Speaker 1: mostly fine so far to me, but other I've heard

854
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 1: complaints from other people about like janky stuff. I haven't

855
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 1: noticed anything at all, except other than what was happening

856
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 1: with verification over the course of yesterday, where you had

857
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 1: George Washington and Jesus being verified on Twitter, in George

858
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 1: Washington tweeting that he did not sign NAFTA, which is

859
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 1: I think important historical context but this is acting like

860
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,760
Speaker 1: this stuff is an l for Elon again, just Twitter

861
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,839
Speaker 1: was a disaster. I mean, he paid way more than

862
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 1: what Twitter was worth because the company was in tatters

863
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:12,440
Speaker 1: when he inherited it. Now, that's not to say there

864
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 1: isn't a more like normal, calmer way to take over

865
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,880
Speaker 1: a company that's not really his style, and anybody who

866
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: expected it to be his style, I think would be

867
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: I mean that's kind of a laughable notion. But Elon

868
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 1: Musk is not going to just quietly, you know, become

869
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 1: the new Jack Dorsey. That that company was in tatters,

870
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 1: I mean, too many employees, a really bad economy for tech,

871
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 1: and it was always going to be extremely extremely chaotic,

872
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:48,800
Speaker 1: culture clash all that stuff. Well, we're doing something a

873
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 1: little bit different here because it's midterm week and it's

874
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:53,840
Speaker 1: certainly something you won't see on cable news or in

875
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: legacy media ever. Ryan, what's your point today? Well, we

876
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 1: were going to talk about what we got wrong today.

877
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 1: I looked looked through all of my different forecast predictions,

878
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 1: couldn't find anything, So gonna gonna hand it over you now, seriously. So,

879
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 1: so I'll start with Pennsylvania here. I think the mistake

880
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 1: here was a not trusting my gut but also be

881
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 1: having a conflicted gut after the debate. I always thought

882
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 1: coming out of the primary that you know, Fetterman was

883
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: going to annihilate Doctor Oz like you you've got you

884
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 1: spend any time in Pennsylvania, the idea that any part

885
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 1: of that state is Doctor Oz country, whether it's Philadelphia,

886
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia suburbs, the all the area in between there,

887
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and the Pittsburgh suburbs, Northeast Pennsylvania, Lei Valley, none

888
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 1: of it. It's not doctor Oz. He hasn't been to

889
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: most of these places. Watching him try to see saying

890
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:52,720
Speaker 1: fly eagles fly during the debate was just absolutely hilarious.

891
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 1: He He's saying only the first line and even botched that, so, uh,

892
00:49:57,640 --> 00:49:59,760
Speaker 1: my gut was saying, like this guy doesn't have a chance.

893
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 1: At the same time, there were two things working against that.

894
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 1: One was the tracking poles. Hearing privately from people on

895
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:10,880
Speaker 1: the on both sides saying who were seeing the tracking

896
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 1: polls just after the after the debate, moving so quickly

897
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 1: and strongly away from Fetterman, and then my gut at

898
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:24,359
Speaker 1: watching the debate wondering, and then the the and then

899
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 1: looking at a couple of focus groups of people who said,

900
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 1: I don't think he's qualified to be a senator anymore,

901
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 1: and then extrapolating that out from there, whereas I'm talking

902
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:35,239
Speaker 1: to all everybody in my family, both the Republican and

903
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 1: Democrat and and Independence, Uh, they nothing about the debate

904
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 1: changed their mind. The Independence who were leading Democratic were like, yeah,

905
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:48,440
Speaker 1: that was like ridiculous, But I don't like Oz. I'm

906
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 1: voting for Fetterman. And I should have gone with that.

907
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 1: I should have gone with my gut on that one,

908
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 1: because he, uh, the the fundamentals of Fetterman ended up

909
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:01,880
Speaker 1: ended up prevailing there. What do we wisconsant And like

910
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 1: a lot of pundits and operatives here in Washington, we

911
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 1: have stopped listening to Wisconsin polls. They bungled it so

912
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 1: badly in twenty sixteen, and bungled again so badly in

913
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 1: twenty twenty that, and they bungled it so badly in

914
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 1: the Democratic direction, in other words, where they say Hillary

915
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 1: Clinton was going to win by seventeen or something like that,

916
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:29,240
Speaker 1: they had Biden up by huge numbers. Hillary lost barely

917
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 1: in Wisconsin, and then Biden won barely in Wisconsins, they're

918
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:37,720
Speaker 1: wildly off. Fine Gold was well ahead, although the polls

919
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,879
Speaker 1: were narrowing in that race against Ron Johnson six years ago.

920
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:45,799
Speaker 1: And so even though the polls were saying that this was,

921
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 1: you know, within the margin of error, I just I

922
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 1: just didn't believe those polls. So I think that was

923
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:55,239
Speaker 1: and I think a lot of operatives in Washington didn't.

924
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 1: And that's why Democrats didn't spend more. Although that was

925
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 1: still idiotic because even if they don't believe those polls,

926
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:04,919
Speaker 1: polls at Florida, where they spend seventy plus million dollars

927
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,719
Speaker 1: on Valve Dammings were much worse. So it's kind of

928
00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 1: inscrutable why they ended up making that decision. And some

929
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 1: of that is grassroots just sending money to val Dammings

930
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 1: because they hate Marco Rubio more than they hate Ron Johnson.

931
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 1: Because I guess Ron Johnson didn't run for president anyway,

932
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 1: So what do we got? New Hampshire? I think with

933
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, so I thought that towards the end that

934
00:52:27,719 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 1: this would be a very very close race. Thinking that

935
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 1: a Senate election is going to be very close in

936
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 1: New Hampshire doesn't take a genius because they've all recently

937
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 1: been decided by just a couple thousand votes. Hassen ended

938
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,400
Speaker 1: up blowing out Don Bolduke, who was this kind of

939
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:47,399
Speaker 1: Maga general, Maga retired general who both Democrats and kind

940
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:50,040
Speaker 1: of the Maga Crown had boosted to the nomination over

941
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 1: a more normy, kind of New Hampshire friendly Democrat. I

942
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:56,719
Speaker 1: think one of the things that I missed or forgot

943
00:52:56,760 --> 00:52:59,560
Speaker 1: about New Hampshire is how much it's changing. Like we

944
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 1: shouldn't get stuck in our ideas about a state New Hampshire.

945
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 1: It's obviously the live, free or die state. It's going

946
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:08,200
Speaker 1: to have that, you know, forever, and you had this

947
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:11,399
Speaker 1: big influx of libertarians, which you know, influenced its its

948
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 1: political culture. But over the last couple of years, New

949
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 1: Hampshire has been the fastest growing state in New England,

950
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 1: one of the fastest growing states in the country. And

951
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 1: those are people that are coming from Massachusetts, New York,

952
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 1: New Jersey and they're bringing their politics with them. Couple

953
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:33,960
Speaker 1: that with the nationalization of our political climate, and New

954
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 1: Hampshire winds up looking much more like a typical well educated,

955
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:42,840
Speaker 1: you know, college educated state rather than the kind of

956
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 1: anomalous New Hampshire, New England state that it has been

957
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 1: in the past, and so I think that actually played

958
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 1: a significant role, and so Hassen was able to lean

959
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:58,320
Speaker 1: into that a lot more comfortably. Let's do in a

960
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 1: couple of victory laps. Let's see. Also, I didn't think

961
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,240
Speaker 1: that they were going to be in contention for the House,

962
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:08,680
Speaker 1: although I and this can be, I'll do that. Yeah,

963
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 1: this could be. This would be our transition into victory laps.

964
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:16,440
Speaker 1: I interviewed Tom Bonyer of Target Smart on my podcast

965
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 1: Deconstructed and continued following his analysis throughout the throughout the campaign.

966
00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 1: He was he was the kind of the most optimistic Democrat,

967
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 1: and because I was taking in so much of his

968
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:31,920
Speaker 1: I think I was one of the least pessimistic on

969
00:54:31,960 --> 00:54:35,680
Speaker 1: the left. Because he kept saying, look, there is a

970
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 1: secret abortion rights voter and youth vote is going to

971
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 1: surge like and he was looking at what Target smart

972
00:54:44,000 --> 00:54:48,200
Speaker 1: is is they do They take voter registration data, They

973
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:50,480
Speaker 1: take voting data and they couple it with a bunch

974
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:53,600
Speaker 1: of consumer data and other like one of these massively

975
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:58,080
Speaker 1: sophisticated operations that knows way more about you than you

976
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,399
Speaker 1: would you'd like to know, and so then then they

977
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 1: forecast and model that out around the country. And they

978
00:55:03,600 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 1: kept saying, look, our models and our forecasts here based

979
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 1: on actual actions by people, including voter registrations, early voting requests,

980
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:15,040
Speaker 1: and ballots turned in, do not match what you're seeing

981
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 1: in the polls here, and here is why. And they

982
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 1: had a theory of the case, and so going in

983
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,560
Speaker 1: I was giving it maybe a third And I talked

984
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:25,719
Speaker 1: about this on my little substack chat that like, no,

985
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:27,839
Speaker 1: if Democrats are going to do well, and it's because

986
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 1: there's this secret abortion voter, and I was giving that

987
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:33,840
Speaker 1: a lot more credence I think some other than a

988
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 1: lot of other pundits were, which brings me into the

989
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:40,319
Speaker 1: other victory lap, which is Kentucky. I was pretty sure

990
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:44,719
Speaker 1: that Kentucky voters would side with abortion rights, which for

991
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 1: people in Louisville that actually might not have been that

992
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 1: tough of a call. But I think for national reporters

993
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 1: they might have been pretty surprised at how robust that

994
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 1: support was for abortion rights in a place like Kentucky,

995
00:55:56,400 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 1: because there's such stereotypes around around voters in Kentucky. Yeah,

996
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 1: this is a purchasing I mean, I think there's a lot.

997
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:10,920
Speaker 1: Maybe this is a good transition into what I got wrong,

998
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:16,240
Speaker 1: because I think it's really unwise for anybody, especially in media,

999
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 1: to mock anybody else for their predictions, because we are

1000
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 1: no I mean sincerely. Actually, I was going to start

1001
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:24,800
Speaker 1: by saying one of the things that I was told

1002
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:28,080
Speaker 1: before going on cable news for the first time years ago,

1003
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 1: was never say I don't know. I think I had

1004
00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 1: done a practice and I said I don't know, and

1005
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:36,760
Speaker 1: that sounded really wrong to me then, and it's very wrong.

1006
00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 1: I can say that confidently it's a very wrong thing

1007
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 1: now because from my perspective at the time as a viewer,

1008
00:56:43,960 --> 00:56:46,239
Speaker 1: I wanted to know when people you know you sort

1009
00:56:46,280 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 1: of I grew up in the age of reality TV.

1010
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:50,240
Speaker 1: I want to know when somebody doesn't know the answer

1011
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 1: to the question. I'd much rather the transparency than some

1012
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 1: like hackneyed approach where you're stumbling and stammering to find

1013
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:01,279
Speaker 1: some bs that you can and you know, just go

1014
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:04,279
Speaker 1: back to the green room and grab another espresso. So

1015
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:07,800
Speaker 1: I don't mind that at all, and I'm happy to

1016
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 1: always say when I don't know something, because again, as

1017
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:13,840
Speaker 1: a viewer, that's what I like So let's get to

1018
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:15,760
Speaker 1: what I don't know. Let's get to what I got wrong.

1019
00:57:16,120 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 1: I'll start with Poles. So I assumed that polls were undercutting,

1020
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 1: under counting Trump voters, and that people like Trafalgar, who

1021
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:28,520
Speaker 1: had corrected for those undercounts in years past, were at

1022
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 1: least somewhat closer to reality. You had Trafalgar saying that

1023
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 1: they what they did right in twenty sixteen and twenty

1024
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:39,480
Speaker 1: twenty was pick up on this sort of stealth Trump

1025
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 1: voter who didn't want to talk to polsters and who

1026
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 1: was they said, actually after Biden's semi fascist speech in Philadelphia,

1027
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 1: they were picking up on a lot of people just

1028
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:51,480
Speaker 1: not wanting to identify as a Trump voter because they

1029
00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:55,120
Speaker 1: didn't want to identify themselves in a way that could

1030
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 1: harm them in the future. Something like that. There was

1031
00:57:57,600 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 1: just not a lot of trusted pulsters, not a lot

1032
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 1: of willingness to polsters. So I actually assumed that the

1033
00:58:03,160 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 1: Trifalger polls, which were caused a lot of folks in

1034
00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 1: the media to say we could be looking at a

1035
00:58:08,040 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 1: red tidal wave. I assumed that those were correcting in

1036
00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 1: a way that was closer to reality, not necessarily on

1037
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: the dot, but closer to reality by correcting for undercounting

1038
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 1: of that sort of stealth Trump voter. Now Trump wasn't

1039
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:23,080
Speaker 1: on the ballot, and it seems that that must be

1040
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 1: that might be something that makes a really big difference

1041
00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:28,920
Speaker 1: on that count. So secondly, now we go to the

1042
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:31,680
Speaker 1: youth vote, which, as we're sort of starting to look

1043
00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 1: through the numbers, Charlotte Alter had a couple of good

1044
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:37,080
Speaker 1: tweets about this. It was on par with twenty eighteen,

1045
00:58:37,120 --> 00:58:39,920
Speaker 1: which was very high. It's still second to twenty eighteen

1046
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 1: at twenty eighteen in terms of youth turnout by the

1047
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:45,760
Speaker 1: numbers we have so far, but in key battleground states

1048
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:49,120
Speaker 1: it was very much the same as twenty eighteen. So

1049
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:53,400
Speaker 1: I underestimated one the degree to which abortion, democracy and

1050
00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 1: student loan relief could have on youth and swing voters.

1051
00:58:57,400 --> 00:59:00,880
Speaker 1: Then two, the degree to which republic would be harmed

1052
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 1: by their lack of an economic agenda, because this is

1053
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 1: point three. This is a three point when I got wrong.

1054
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:12,280
Speaker 1: The economic picture, crime problems, and cultural radicalism seemed sufficiently

1055
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:15,960
Speaker 1: dire as to offset the losses that would be caused,

1056
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 1: for instance, by gains from gains to Democrats from voters

1057
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,800
Speaker 1: animated by the issues of abortion, animated by student loan

1058
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 1: debt relief, and animated by those especially if you're looking

1059
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 1: at like Tim Michaels in Wisconsin or Doug Mastrianna in Pennsylvania,

1060
00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:36,840
Speaker 1: the democracy question, right, So I assumed that all of

1061
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:40,160
Speaker 1: that would sort of be offset by those voters who

1062
00:59:40,200 --> 00:59:44,400
Speaker 1: were coming in and saying, listen, democracy to me means

1063
00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:49,040
Speaker 1: a strong economy. Democracy to me means being able to

1064
00:59:49,040 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 1: feed my family. That's what I'm voting for first and

1065
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:55,120
Speaker 1: first and foremost, and the rest of the sort of secondary.

1066
00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 1: If you're looking at Michigan, there was an abortion referendum

1067
00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 1: on the ballot there. This is a quote from Alissa Slotkin,

1068
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:06,960
Speaker 1: who won reelection in that suburban Michigan district by like

1069
01:00:07,000 --> 01:00:10,400
Speaker 1: a six point margin. She was targeted as being very vulnerable.

1070
01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 1: She thought, never thought I'd do it. This is from her.

1071
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:16,000
Speaker 1: She said, I did do an ad on choice. Never

1072
01:00:16,040 --> 01:00:17,919
Speaker 1: thought i'd do one in my life in a pro

1073
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:20,400
Speaker 1: life district. But I did do one ad in choice.

1074
01:00:20,680 --> 01:00:24,240
Speaker 1: Then she added, but I did four on the economy.

1075
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:27,400
Speaker 1: So to a point that Crystal makes in lever In

1076
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 1: lever News this morning, actually democrats running in swing districts

1077
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:34,920
Speaker 1: or in the rust belt. They shifted their focus a

1078
01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 1: bit in certain areas to the economy in recent weeks

1079
01:00:39,240 --> 01:00:40,919
Speaker 1: in a way that I think really could have made

1080
01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:43,640
Speaker 1: a major difference down the stretch. And not every Democrat

1081
01:00:43,680 --> 01:00:47,280
Speaker 1: focused on abortion, to Slatkin's point, So there was a

1082
01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 1: change in tone, and it actually may have happened in

1083
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:54,439
Speaker 1: time for people to come down and say, well, actually, yeah,

1084
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:57,800
Speaker 1: I did hear this candidate talking about the fact that

1085
01:00:57,880 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 1: there's some corporate malfeasans play and inflation, and that really

1086
01:01:03,040 --> 01:01:06,800
Speaker 1: could have been a deciding factor down the home stretch

1087
01:01:07,240 --> 01:01:10,320
Speaker 1: for Democrats. That had been one thing that I was

1088
01:01:10,400 --> 01:01:13,160
Speaker 1: right about to Ryan's point about taking some victory laps,

1089
01:01:13,360 --> 01:01:15,760
Speaker 1: is that Democrats did have a reason to focus on abortion.

1090
01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:18,360
Speaker 1: This wasn't just being plucked out of nowhere, coming from

1091
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:21,680
Speaker 1: completely out of touch consultants. The consultants are surely out

1092
01:01:21,720 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 1: of touch, but they did have a reason to do that.

1093
01:01:23,640 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 1: It's because midterm elections, it's all about turnout. We've been

1094
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:30,440
Speaker 1: saying that all along here. It's absolutely why the democracy

1095
01:01:30,440 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 1: message and the abortion message were being hammer home in

1096
01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:36,840
Speaker 1: ads in swing districts because you know, if you can

1097
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:38,800
Speaker 1: turn out the liberal base if you can turn out

1098
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 1: the suburban mom for whom that is the difference between

1099
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 1: staying home and not voting. It's not even just about

1100
01:01:44,720 --> 01:01:46,919
Speaker 1: getting people to vote for the Democrat. It's about getting

1101
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:50,120
Speaker 1: people to just get off their couch and get in

1102
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 1: and vote. That's why they were running on abortion and democracy.

1103
01:01:54,640 --> 01:01:59,240
Speaker 1: I suggested that the democracy message, the abortion message, Democrats

1104
01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 1: would have had a better cheane if they had tied

1105
01:02:00,920 --> 01:02:04,400
Speaker 1: it into the economic message, especially when it comes to democracy.

1106
01:02:05,320 --> 01:02:07,800
Speaker 1: But I think some of them actually really did, and

1107
01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 1: in ways that I was not convinced would be as

1108
01:02:12,280 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 1: powerful as they ultimately were. Finally, the early vote, Oh

1109
01:02:17,360 --> 01:02:20,440
Speaker 1: my goodness, Pennsylvania is the best example of this. I

1110
01:02:20,480 --> 01:02:24,560
Speaker 1: didn't factor that, even though we had the numbers by

1111
01:02:24,600 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 1: the time doctor Oz debated John Fetterman, that some seven

1112
01:02:31,360 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 1: hundred plus thousand votes, probably around seven hundred and fifty

1113
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:37,960
Speaker 1: thousand votes had already been cast. Seventy three percent of

1114
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:42,280
Speaker 1: those votes were cast by Democrats. That's about five hundred thousand.

1115
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:46,960
Speaker 1: That's about five hundred thousand votes four Fettermen before the

1116
01:02:47,000 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 1: debate happened. The margin between Oz and Fetterman ultimately is

1117
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:53,360
Speaker 1: somewhere north of two hundred thousand votes. Think about that

1118
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:56,400
Speaker 1: if early voting, let's say you take all those early

1119
01:02:56,440 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 1: voting off the table, say early voting had started after

1120
01:02:58,800 --> 01:03:04,240
Speaker 1: that debate, you indeed maybe looking at Senator Oz, because

1121
01:03:04,320 --> 01:03:08,560
Speaker 1: you have five hundred thousand votes cast for Fetterman already,

1122
01:03:08,600 --> 01:03:11,800
Speaker 1: and that margin is still slim. One thing, another thing

1123
01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:13,320
Speaker 1: that I was right about, and I say Ryan and

1124
01:03:13,400 --> 01:03:16,200
Speaker 1: I both would write about, is that the national media

1125
01:03:16,240 --> 01:03:18,840
Speaker 1: didn't like John Fetterman. The national media does not fall

1126
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 1: for economic populists, because again, Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post.

1127
01:03:23,000 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 1: In need I go on, we can talk about Comcast,

1128
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:28,040
Speaker 1: we could talk about other folks. But that's just one

1129
01:03:28,200 --> 01:03:31,400
Speaker 1: example of why. And so there was always a even

1130
01:03:31,440 --> 01:03:34,080
Speaker 1: before John's Fetterman suffered a stroke, there was always this

1131
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:37,920
Speaker 1: idea that, you know, he just he wasn't a great candidate.

1132
01:03:38,800 --> 01:03:40,919
Speaker 1: I think that's wrong. I've always thought that's wrong. I thought,

1133
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:42,600
Speaker 1: I said from the beginning, he was one of the

1134
01:03:42,640 --> 01:03:45,840
Speaker 1: best candidates that Democrats had fielded that cycle. And he's

1135
01:03:45,960 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 1: especially the perfect foil to doctor Oz. You could not

1136
01:03:49,480 --> 01:03:51,640
Speaker 1: pick a better person to run against doctor Oz than

1137
01:03:51,680 --> 01:03:58,960
Speaker 1: John Fetterman. Obviously his candidacy was weakened enormously. We're joined

1138
01:03:59,000 --> 01:04:02,959
Speaker 1: now by ORNs executive director over at American Compass, which

1139
01:04:03,040 --> 01:04:06,080
Speaker 1: is working on coming up with a plan an economic

1140
01:04:06,120 --> 01:04:09,480
Speaker 1: agenda for the Republican Party that would actually be an

1141
01:04:09,520 --> 01:04:14,439
Speaker 1: agenda that benefits the working class and would enable Republicans

1142
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:16,920
Speaker 1: to be a party that helps the working class. I

1143
01:04:16,920 --> 01:04:18,920
Speaker 1: know there's a lot of skepticism about that. Or in

1144
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:21,439
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us, Thanks for having

1145
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:24,640
Speaker 1: me well, or in let's start with some of your

1146
01:04:24,680 --> 01:04:27,000
Speaker 1: post mortem tweets here. I really liked the way that

1147
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:29,960
Speaker 1: you put it. We have the thread from Oran that

1148
01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:33,920
Speaker 1: we can pop up on the screen. Political realignment continues.

1149
01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:36,080
Speaker 1: A pace who said the opportunity to translate a multi

1150
01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:38,920
Speaker 1: ethnic working class Conservatism into a durable government majority is

1151
01:04:39,000 --> 01:04:42,080
Speaker 1: just sitting there staring at everyone. While Trump spurred a

1152
01:04:42,080 --> 01:04:45,040
Speaker 1: working class realignment, he does not have the formula for

1153
01:04:45,040 --> 01:04:48,880
Speaker 1: conservatives to capitalize on it. Or in tell us why

1154
01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 1: you think the midterms kind of evidenced that, especially since

1155
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:55,600
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of chatter kind of in our

1156
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:58,120
Speaker 1: circles on the right about how the Republican Party just

1157
01:04:58,240 --> 01:05:01,120
Speaker 1: didn't have a message to work class voters. You saw

1158
01:05:01,200 --> 01:05:03,920
Speaker 1: Fetterman run up the numbers in places like Erie County.

1159
01:05:04,800 --> 01:05:07,760
Speaker 1: That should be you know, in an ideal world. I

1160
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:09,240
Speaker 1: don't know if doctor Oz is ever going to be

1161
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:12,320
Speaker 1: the vehicle for a real pro working class message, but

1162
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 1: that should be, you know, prime a prime opportunity for

1163
01:05:15,200 --> 01:05:18,080
Speaker 1: a post Trump Republican party to take this message to

1164
01:05:18,520 --> 01:05:22,480
Speaker 1: folks in places like Erie County. What happened, well, you know,

1165
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:26,280
Speaker 1: Erie County is a great example. And your point, what

1166
01:05:26,320 --> 01:05:28,680
Speaker 1: did Republicans bring to them? I think we're at a

1167
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:32,560
Speaker 1: really interesting point on the right where what used to

1168
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:35,960
Speaker 1: be has been knocked over as it needed to be.

1169
01:05:36,200 --> 01:05:39,400
Speaker 1: I don't think anyone is envisioning sort of twenty fourteen

1170
01:05:39,480 --> 01:05:43,680
Speaker 1: Paul Ryanism as the future of the Republican Party. But

1171
01:05:44,240 --> 01:05:46,920
Speaker 1: there isn't really anything new yet. I mean, there really

1172
01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:50,760
Speaker 1: wasn't an agenda that that Republicans were running on, and

1173
01:05:50,840 --> 01:05:53,600
Speaker 1: in a lot of cases it's not clear what candidates

1174
01:05:53,600 --> 01:05:57,840
Speaker 1: were representing or what the pitch was. Besides, we're not Democrats,

1175
01:05:58,280 --> 01:06:00,520
Speaker 1: and I think we've seen for a while now when

1176
01:06:00,520 --> 01:06:03,240
Speaker 1: each party runs is just we're not the other party.

1177
01:06:03,800 --> 01:06:05,480
Speaker 1: It's a great way to kind of land at a

1178
01:06:05,520 --> 01:06:09,120
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty nation. But at the same time, and

1179
01:06:09,160 --> 01:06:11,400
Speaker 1: you see this in places like Florida where you had

1180
01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 1: candidates like Emnord Santis and Senator Rubio who really were

1181
01:06:16,080 --> 01:06:21,480
Speaker 1: running on a clear agenda. If you combine social conservatism

1182
01:06:21,600 --> 01:06:26,360
Speaker 1: with a real commitment to an economic agenda that pays

1183
01:06:26,360 --> 01:06:30,920
Speaker 1: attention to workers, there's a real majority there. And we

1184
01:06:31,040 --> 01:06:34,280
Speaker 1: just I think need more people to focus on that.

1185
01:06:34,480 --> 01:06:36,240
Speaker 1: And as you said, we're doing a lot of work

1186
01:06:36,280 --> 01:06:39,320
Speaker 1: at American Compass to try to develop with that economic

1187
01:06:39,520 --> 01:06:42,280
Speaker 1: agenda could be. But then you need elected leaders to

1188
01:06:42,320 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 1: actually or candidates to realize that that has to be

1189
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:48,720
Speaker 1: a part of the message too. And so our colleague

1190
01:06:48,760 --> 01:06:51,680
Speaker 1: Crystal Ball has a piece actually on lever News this morning,

1191
01:06:52,080 --> 01:06:55,200
Speaker 1: headline the real reason for Dems Russ Belt Revival, and

1192
01:06:55,240 --> 01:06:58,680
Speaker 1: she makes the case that in the industrial Midwest and

1193
01:06:58,920 --> 01:07:02,720
Speaker 1: lumping Pennsylvania there too, that Democrats, on top of abortion

1194
01:07:02,840 --> 01:07:06,200
Speaker 1: really did run on economic populism in a way that

1195
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:13,080
Speaker 1: was distinct than say New York or some say California, Oregon. Yeah,

1196
01:07:12,640 --> 01:07:14,880
Speaker 1: and and that that was a key difference. Did you

1197
01:07:14,960 --> 01:07:18,800
Speaker 1: notice a difference in the democratic competition around the country

1198
01:07:18,840 --> 01:07:22,440
Speaker 1: and is it your sense from the right that Democrats

1199
01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:28,320
Speaker 1: who embraced populism economic populism performed better well, I think,

1200
01:07:28,480 --> 01:07:31,280
Speaker 1: you know, frankly, at the sort of house race level

1201
01:07:31,840 --> 01:07:34,360
Speaker 1: or even Senate races, it felt like it came down

1202
01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:38,800
Speaker 1: an awful lot to sort of national environment and the

1203
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:41,440
Speaker 1: specifics of candidates. I do think if you look at

1204
01:07:41,440 --> 01:07:44,439
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party generally, it's it's important to notice how,

1205
01:07:44,480 --> 01:07:47,640
Speaker 1: for instance, Joe Biden differs from Barack Obama. I mean,

1206
01:07:48,200 --> 01:07:50,960
Speaker 1: you know, the White House is certainly doing things on

1207
01:07:51,000 --> 01:07:55,439
Speaker 1: for instance, reshoring industry, focusing on labor in a way

1208
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 1: that I think kind of Clinton Obama Democrats have really

1209
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 1: gotten away from. But of course, the flip side is

1210
01:08:01,680 --> 01:08:06,320
Speaker 1: that that gets paired with this extreme social progressivism that

1211
01:08:06,360 --> 01:08:10,600
Speaker 1: then makes everything about either just outright social and identity

1212
01:08:10,600 --> 01:08:13,720
Speaker 1: issues or climate change and you know, for giving student

1213
01:08:13,800 --> 01:08:16,080
Speaker 1: loans and so at the end of the day, I

1214
01:08:16,120 --> 01:08:18,559
Speaker 1: think you're right. There are Democrats who do get this,

1215
01:08:18,760 --> 01:08:21,160
Speaker 1: just as there are Republicans who get this. But the

1216
01:08:21,200 --> 01:08:24,040
Speaker 1: Democratic Party as a whole is so beholden at this

1217
01:08:24,080 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 1: point to this progressive bubble that seems to dictate what

1218
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:30,880
Speaker 1: they think the country cares about that it's hard to

1219
01:08:30,880 --> 01:08:34,719
Speaker 1: see the Democratic Party actually actually going in this direction.

1220
01:08:35,000 --> 01:08:37,679
Speaker 1: And that's why, as Emily noticed in the tweet, I said,

1221
01:08:37,920 --> 01:08:41,879
Speaker 1: you know, this opportunity is just sitting there staring at everybody.

1222
01:08:42,000 --> 01:08:44,960
Speaker 1: I mean, there's certainly a hypothetical world where the left

1223
01:08:44,960 --> 01:08:47,760
Speaker 1: of center kind of goes in this direction. I don't

1224
01:08:47,760 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 1: think that's where we are in America today. I think

1225
01:08:50,760 --> 01:08:53,000
Speaker 1: there's a much better chance that the right of center

1226
01:08:53,520 --> 01:08:56,879
Speaker 1: that has the right message on so many values related

1227
01:08:56,960 --> 01:09:00,160
Speaker 1: questions and is at least open at this point to

1228
01:09:00,680 --> 01:09:04,679
Speaker 1: taking workers interests seriously. On the economic side, I think

1229
01:09:04,680 --> 01:09:07,479
Speaker 1: that's the right coalition, and I think we're moving that direction.

1230
01:09:08,160 --> 01:09:10,720
Speaker 1: But you know, maybe that it also takes some failures

1231
01:09:11,120 --> 01:09:13,320
Speaker 1: and people realizing that that if you don't have that,

1232
01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:17,040
Speaker 1: it doesn't work for people to really dig in and

1233
01:09:17,400 --> 01:09:20,599
Speaker 1: start focusing on this stuff. Or and again I mentioned

1234
01:09:20,600 --> 01:09:23,439
Speaker 1: this in the introduction, but at American Compass, you've put

1235
01:09:23,439 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 1: out basically a plan, and it's still kind of hard

1236
01:09:27,680 --> 01:09:31,559
Speaker 1: to envision. You know, a Ron Johnson who squeaked out

1237
01:09:31,560 --> 01:09:35,439
Speaker 1: a way in Wisconsin. Certainly a doctor Oz taking this

1238
01:09:35,640 --> 01:09:39,080
Speaker 1: to you know, Erie County, to rural areas of Wisconsin

1239
01:09:39,400 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 1: and making this case and being well, you know, Ron

1240
01:09:42,479 --> 01:09:44,599
Speaker 1: Johnson was somebody came in on the Tea party way

1241
01:09:44,600 --> 01:09:48,720
Speaker 1: of business guy being sort of open to what it

1242
01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:51,320
Speaker 1: would take. I mean, Republican Party can talk until it's

1243
01:09:51,320 --> 01:09:53,920
Speaker 1: blue in the face about the new working class, multiethnic

1244
01:09:54,040 --> 01:09:57,280
Speaker 1: coalition and how Donald Trump changed the party forever and

1245
01:09:57,640 --> 01:10:01,439
Speaker 1: you know, one those those Russbell counties that Obama Trump country.

1246
01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:05,080
Speaker 1: But unless you actually come up, you can't run on vibes.

1247
01:10:05,240 --> 01:10:08,280
Speaker 1: You have to actually bite the bullet and piss off

1248
01:10:08,280 --> 01:10:10,960
Speaker 1: some of your corporate benefactors. And I think some of

1249
01:10:10,960 --> 01:10:14,519
Speaker 1: the ideas that you've laid out that would involve biting

1250
01:10:14,560 --> 01:10:19,559
Speaker 1: the bullet for some folks. Or what should Republicans be

1251
01:10:19,680 --> 01:10:24,559
Speaker 1: running on. What are some very specific points in your plan? Yeah,

1252
01:10:24,560 --> 01:10:27,240
Speaker 1: thanks for bringing that up. We released right after the

1253
01:10:27,760 --> 01:10:32,439
Speaker 1: polls closed pretty much what we're calling New Direction, which

1254
01:10:32,560 --> 01:10:35,040
Speaker 1: tries to outline what this kind of economic agenda would

1255
01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:37,960
Speaker 1: look like. And you know, as you said, I think

1256
01:10:38,040 --> 01:10:41,120
Speaker 1: we've got kind of eight different sections, but starting at

1257
01:10:41,120 --> 01:10:43,320
Speaker 1: the top, you know, one really big one is the

1258
01:10:43,320 --> 01:10:48,120
Speaker 1: idea of reshoring industry and recognizing that that manufacturing matters,

1259
01:10:48,200 --> 01:10:51,920
Speaker 1: other forms of industry and the physical economy matter. And

1260
01:10:51,960 --> 01:10:54,400
Speaker 1: you can't have a flourishing economy where you say, you know,

1261
01:10:54,439 --> 01:10:58,479
Speaker 1: we'll just design everything in California and make everything somewhere else.

1262
01:10:59,120 --> 01:11:00,719
Speaker 1: And so I think there's all a lot of really

1263
01:11:00,720 --> 01:11:04,600
Speaker 1: substantive things we can do on trade policy, on industrial

1264
01:11:04,640 --> 01:11:08,200
Speaker 1: policy that would really make a big difference in making

1265
01:11:08,240 --> 01:11:11,599
Speaker 1: America a place where people want to invest, create good jobs,

1266
01:11:11,640 --> 01:11:15,280
Speaker 1: and manufacture things, which then also is where the research

1267
01:11:15,280 --> 01:11:19,080
Speaker 1: and the innovation and the progress comes from. So that

1268
01:11:19,120 --> 01:11:22,200
Speaker 1: we think is one really important area of focus. A

1269
01:11:22,280 --> 01:11:25,960
Speaker 1: second is non college pathways. You know, we including the

1270
01:11:25,960 --> 01:11:28,519
Speaker 1: Republican Party, focused for so long on just you know,

1271
01:11:28,680 --> 01:11:30,599
Speaker 1: we're going to basically find a way to get everybody

1272
01:11:30,600 --> 01:11:34,880
Speaker 1: into and through college and pay for it somehow, and

1273
01:11:35,160 --> 01:11:38,400
Speaker 1: that just doesn't work. Most Americas don't have a college degree,

1274
01:11:38,479 --> 01:11:40,880
Speaker 1: A huge majority are not sort of going high school

1275
01:11:40,880 --> 01:11:45,599
Speaker 1: college career, and so really shifting investment to non college

1276
01:11:45,600 --> 01:11:47,760
Speaker 1: pathways and ways to get into the workforce, get on

1277
01:11:47,800 --> 01:11:51,559
Speaker 1: the job training, I think is super important. And then

1278
01:11:51,600 --> 01:11:54,439
Speaker 1: just to mention one more, you know, we think family

1279
01:11:54,479 --> 01:11:58,720
Speaker 1: policy is really important. Families generally are struggling the very

1280
01:11:58,720 --> 01:12:01,479
Speaker 1: idea of the family America. In America struggling marriage rates

1281
01:12:01,479 --> 01:12:04,240
Speaker 1: are down, birth rates are down, and and we have

1282
01:12:04,280 --> 01:12:07,599
Speaker 1: to have strong families first and foremost for their own sake.

1283
01:12:07,720 --> 01:12:09,920
Speaker 1: That's that's that's sort of the end goal here in

1284
01:12:09,920 --> 01:12:12,439
Speaker 1: a lot of ways. But but also if we want

1285
01:12:12,439 --> 01:12:15,960
Speaker 1: after riding communities and a strong economy, and so look,

1286
01:12:16,000 --> 01:12:18,559
Speaker 1: I think you're right. You know, someone like Ron Johnson

1287
01:12:18,800 --> 01:12:22,640
Speaker 1: probably isn't isn't going to head in this direction or

1288
01:12:22,840 --> 01:12:25,040
Speaker 1: or at least maybe need to be dragged in this direction.

1289
01:12:25,680 --> 01:12:27,160
Speaker 1: But but I think if you look at who the

1290
01:12:27,160 --> 01:12:29,960
Speaker 1: real emerging leaders are in the Republican Party, you know,

1291
01:12:30,040 --> 01:12:36,040
Speaker 1: folks in the Senate like Marco Rubio, Josh Holly, Tom Cotton, JD.

1292
01:12:36,040 --> 01:12:38,160
Speaker 1: I'd say, folks, he's not there yet. But but someone

1293
01:12:38,240 --> 01:12:42,400
Speaker 1: like JD. Vance. You know, I'll certainly take my chances

1294
01:12:42,439 --> 01:12:44,200
Speaker 1: if you're asking whether the party is going to head

1295
01:12:44,200 --> 01:12:46,880
Speaker 1: in the direction of Ron Johnson or JD. Vance. And

1296
01:12:46,960 --> 01:12:49,400
Speaker 1: so I think in the medium to the long term

1297
01:12:49,840 --> 01:12:53,800
Speaker 1: things are really promising. But but you know, to to

1298
01:12:53,840 --> 01:12:56,120
Speaker 1: steal a phrase from the left, you know, we have

1299
01:12:56,200 --> 01:12:59,360
Speaker 1: to do the work, and we have to actually develop

1300
01:12:59,400 --> 01:13:01,479
Speaker 1: the ideas and the platform and has to be built

1301
01:13:01,520 --> 01:13:04,680
Speaker 1: on a coherence stead of principles, and so that's what

1302
01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:08,040
Speaker 1: we're doing at American Compass, and hopefully as as we

1303
01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:11,280
Speaker 1: head into the next election cycle, well we'll have a

1304
01:13:11,320 --> 01:13:13,880
Speaker 1: lot more candidates who are ready to focus on this.

1305
01:13:14,720 --> 01:13:16,080
Speaker 1: I wanted to pick up on one thing you had

1306
01:13:16,080 --> 01:13:18,599
Speaker 1: said in one of your earlier answers about, you know,

1307
01:13:19,400 --> 01:13:21,760
Speaker 1: student debt coming from kind of a bubble about what

1308
01:13:21,800 --> 01:13:24,000
Speaker 1: people don't really understand, and I want to press you

1309
01:13:24,000 --> 01:13:26,839
Speaker 1: on that because I'm wondering if you're kind of relying

1310
01:13:26,880 --> 01:13:29,919
Speaker 1: on kind of a mythologized version of what the American

1311
01:13:29,960 --> 01:13:33,320
Speaker 1: working class is rather than kind of what the actual

1312
01:13:33,760 --> 01:13:36,559
Speaker 1: you know, American working classes. Because it's it's easy to

1313
01:13:36,720 --> 01:13:40,240
Speaker 1: caricature anybody who went to college, as you know, some

1314
01:13:40,320 --> 01:13:44,040
Speaker 1: woll oberliningrad who has rich parents and you know, just

1315
01:13:44,120 --> 01:13:46,880
Speaker 1: wants just wants to bail out so they can you know,

1316
01:13:46,920 --> 01:13:50,479
Speaker 1: go get there like multicultural studies, master's degree or whatever,

1317
01:13:50,479 --> 01:13:53,200
Speaker 1: you know, whatever it is like. But if you look

1318
01:13:53,240 --> 01:13:56,200
Speaker 1: at the actual data or you go around the country,

1319
01:13:56,240 --> 01:13:59,240
Speaker 1: something like more than sixty sixty five percent of the

1320
01:13:59,280 --> 01:14:03,439
Speaker 1: country have some college you know, roughly, maybe I think

1321
01:14:03,439 --> 01:14:05,559
Speaker 1: it's what between thirty five and forty percent of people

1322
01:14:05,640 --> 01:14:09,240
Speaker 1: have bachelor's degrees or higher. And so that means you've

1323
01:14:09,240 --> 01:14:11,759
Speaker 1: got twenty twenty five percent of people who have some college,

1324
01:14:12,720 --> 01:14:16,680
Speaker 1: but they're disproportionately going to be white collar. Not the

1325
01:14:16,680 --> 01:14:19,360
Speaker 1: people I think who didn't graduate, like who spent several

1326
01:14:19,400 --> 01:14:21,840
Speaker 1: years in college, racked up a whole bunch of debt.

1327
01:14:22,240 --> 01:14:26,680
Speaker 1: Something went wrong. They're now their paycheck to paycheck, but

1328
01:14:26,720 --> 01:14:29,639
Speaker 1: they're sitting there with fifteen thousand dollars in student loan

1329
01:14:29,680 --> 01:14:32,120
Speaker 1: debt for a degree that they don't even have. I

1330
01:14:32,120 --> 01:14:34,200
Speaker 1: think there are a lot of people who are struggling

1331
01:14:34,600 --> 01:14:37,320
Speaker 1: with debt who you would look at and meet and say,

1332
01:14:37,320 --> 01:14:41,320
Speaker 1: this is a working class person, sure who benefits from

1333
01:14:41,560 --> 01:14:46,000
Speaker 1: student debt cancelation and who is not an Oberlin graduate.

1334
01:14:46,400 --> 01:14:48,840
Speaker 1: What do you what do you think we're in. I

1335
01:14:48,840 --> 01:14:51,040
Speaker 1: think that's absolutely right, and that's the point we try

1336
01:14:51,040 --> 01:14:54,479
Speaker 1: to emphasize that American compass. When you're talking about the

1337
01:14:54,640 --> 01:14:58,920
Speaker 1: educational maintainment of the population. You know, we talk about

1338
01:14:58,960 --> 01:15:01,720
Speaker 1: in sort of five roughly equal groups, you still have

1339
01:15:01,880 --> 01:15:04,000
Speaker 1: a close to a fifth of the country that doesn't

1340
01:15:04,040 --> 01:15:06,479
Speaker 1: earn a meaningful high school degree, and we should keep

1341
01:15:06,520 --> 01:15:08,840
Speaker 1: that in mind. You know, you've got about twenty percent

1342
01:15:08,880 --> 01:15:12,040
Speaker 1: who never go to college exactly your point. You're about

1343
01:15:12,040 --> 01:15:15,639
Speaker 1: twenty percent who enroll but don't complete. And that's really

1344
01:15:15,640 --> 01:15:17,959
Speaker 1: important to remember that even of those who hold degrees,

1345
01:15:18,600 --> 01:15:21,679
Speaker 1: barely over half then going to a job that requires

1346
01:15:21,760 --> 01:15:24,439
Speaker 1: a degree. So even among college graduates, you have an

1347
01:15:24,439 --> 01:15:28,320
Speaker 1: awful lot of folks for whom it hasn't worked. And

1348
01:15:28,360 --> 01:15:31,160
Speaker 1: you really get down to about twenty percent who have

1349
01:15:31,200 --> 01:15:34,320
Speaker 1: actually gone high school to college to career the way

1350
01:15:34,840 --> 01:15:38,040
Speaker 1: the system is intended. And so I don't by any

1351
01:15:38,120 --> 01:15:40,680
Speaker 1: means to suggest there aren't working class people who are

1352
01:15:40,720 --> 01:15:43,599
Speaker 1: struggling with student debt. And you know, one thing we've

1353
01:15:43,640 --> 01:15:46,439
Speaker 1: proposed at an American Compass is that we should just

1354
01:15:46,520 --> 01:15:50,439
Speaker 1: treat student debt like other debt. There are people struggling

1355
01:15:50,479 --> 01:15:52,360
Speaker 1: with all sorts of debt. The problem is that student

1356
01:15:52,400 --> 01:15:56,800
Speaker 1: debt is uniquely not dischargeable in bankruptcy. And so what

1357
01:15:56,800 --> 01:16:00,879
Speaker 1: we would say is stop mythologizing student debt and spending

1358
01:16:00,880 --> 01:16:04,720
Speaker 1: on higher education and recognize that it's not something that

1359
01:16:04,760 --> 01:16:07,800
Speaker 1: works for everybody, that people who have been burdened by

1360
01:16:07,840 --> 01:16:10,080
Speaker 1: it and can't get out from under it should have

1361
01:16:10,120 --> 01:16:12,280
Speaker 1: a way to get out from under it. But then

1362
01:16:12,280 --> 01:16:14,800
Speaker 1: my gosh, you have to pair that with reforms to

1363
01:16:14,840 --> 01:16:18,679
Speaker 1: the underlying system. You can't do five hundred billion dollars

1364
01:16:18,680 --> 01:16:22,240
Speaker 1: of student debt forgiveness and not admit that this means

1365
01:16:22,240 --> 01:16:24,880
Speaker 1: the higher education system is a total failure and has

1366
01:16:24,920 --> 01:16:28,080
Speaker 1: to be overhauled and has to stop being funded this way.

1367
01:16:28,479 --> 01:16:31,040
Speaker 1: And what you get instead from the White House is

1368
01:16:31,080 --> 01:16:34,720
Speaker 1: here's five hundred billion dollars essentially just flung out of helicopters,

1369
01:16:34,760 --> 01:16:38,720
Speaker 1: with very little to concern for who actually needs the assistance.

1370
01:16:39,200 --> 01:16:40,840
Speaker 1: And by the way, we're just going to double down

1371
01:16:40,880 --> 01:16:44,639
Speaker 1: on recreating the exact same problem going forward. And that's

1372
01:16:44,680 --> 01:16:46,679
Speaker 1: what you get from the progressive bubble, and that's what's

1373
01:16:46,720 --> 01:16:50,080
Speaker 1: not responsive to would actually benefit the working class, which

1374
01:16:50,120 --> 01:16:54,120
Speaker 1: is in most cases other pathways that come with public

1375
01:16:54,160 --> 01:16:57,200
Speaker 1: support that get you connected to a good job. Not

1376
01:16:57,320 --> 01:17:00,400
Speaker 1: to make this all about student debt, but you know,

1377
01:17:01,080 --> 01:17:02,800
Speaker 1: in the past, there was a policy that allowed you

1378
01:17:02,880 --> 01:17:06,160
Speaker 1: to discharge student debt through bankruptcy. And what was happening

1379
01:17:06,200 --> 01:17:09,040
Speaker 1: is you'd have a bunch of very young people, a

1380
01:17:09,320 --> 01:17:11,920
Speaker 1: lot of lost law students, who would then come out

1381
01:17:11,920 --> 01:17:14,960
Speaker 1: with these huge amounts of debt, discharge all of it,

1382
01:17:15,200 --> 01:17:18,479
Speaker 1: and because they were twenty three, twenty four years old,

1383
01:17:18,479 --> 01:17:21,559
Speaker 1: they didn't have any assets. Even if their parents were

1384
01:17:21,600 --> 01:17:24,880
Speaker 1: super rich, then you know, then they have the repercussions

1385
01:17:24,920 --> 01:17:28,160
Speaker 1: of bankruptcy. But otherwise they're they're cruising, which is and

1386
01:17:28,200 --> 01:17:31,719
Speaker 1: so it's not the benefit seemed to be disproportionately available

1387
01:17:31,760 --> 01:17:37,280
Speaker 1: to people who were in that situation. But I don't

1388
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:38,960
Speaker 1: know if you have any respond to that, But I

1389
01:17:38,960 --> 01:17:42,000
Speaker 1: also want to ask, like, yeah, real quickly. I don't

1390
01:17:42,040 --> 01:17:44,120
Speaker 1: mean to be a rude guest, but I just don't

1391
01:17:44,160 --> 01:17:47,400
Speaker 1: think that's a very accurate characterization. We did a bunch

1392
01:17:47,439 --> 01:17:51,200
Speaker 1: of research on this for this exact proposal, and it

1393
01:17:51,240 --> 01:17:53,240
Speaker 1: was all the way back in the nineteen seventies at

1394
01:17:53,280 --> 01:17:56,760
Speaker 1: a point where visually no one was actually defaulting on

1395
01:17:56,840 --> 01:18:00,200
Speaker 1: their debt. Is is that a myth that upon of

1396
01:18:00,200 --> 01:18:03,680
Speaker 1: people were. It is the rate that increased, But you

1397
01:18:03,760 --> 01:18:07,120
Speaker 1: have to remember that how little, how little college cost,

1398
01:18:07,200 --> 01:18:09,600
Speaker 1: how little that it was in the nineteen seventies. It

1399
01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:12,080
Speaker 1: might have been just a media panic that it was.

1400
01:18:12,280 --> 01:18:14,920
Speaker 1: It was a preemptive overreaction. And again the question is

1401
01:18:14,920 --> 01:18:18,080
Speaker 1: why is student debt different? Right? I mean, somebody, could

1402
01:18:18,400 --> 01:18:20,559
Speaker 1: you know this law suit you're describing, could also go

1403
01:18:20,640 --> 01:18:23,720
Speaker 1: out rack up tons of credit card debt and declare bankruptcy,

1404
01:18:25,040 --> 01:18:28,519
Speaker 1: and we don't have the same reaction. So will there

1405
01:18:28,560 --> 01:18:32,120
Speaker 1: be situations where it gets taken advantage of Sure, sure

1406
01:18:32,160 --> 01:18:35,280
Speaker 1: there will, But compared to the system we have now,

1407
01:18:35,520 --> 01:18:38,680
Speaker 1: it would be a vastly better and fairer one. And

1408
01:18:38,720 --> 01:18:40,040
Speaker 1: the last thing I say is I just I think

1409
01:18:40,040 --> 01:18:42,400
Speaker 1: it's really important not to minimize you sort of glossed

1410
01:18:42,439 --> 01:18:46,120
Speaker 1: over they bear the consequences of bankruptcy. The consequences of

1411
01:18:46,120 --> 01:18:50,200
Speaker 1: bankruptcy are huge. The reason our system works is that

1412
01:18:50,360 --> 01:18:53,040
Speaker 1: we have a very lenient system in the sense that

1413
01:18:53,280 --> 01:18:55,800
Speaker 1: if you if you want to declare bankruptcy, you can

1414
01:18:56,400 --> 01:19:00,639
Speaker 1: much much more leni infancy in Europe. But many people

1415
01:19:00,720 --> 01:19:04,120
Speaker 1: do it because declaring bankruptcy is incredibly costly in all

1416
01:19:04,160 --> 01:19:07,719
Speaker 1: sorts of ways, financially, reputationally for a very long time.

1417
01:19:08,240 --> 01:19:09,680
Speaker 1: And so we actually have a very good system I

1418
01:19:09,720 --> 01:19:12,799
Speaker 1: would say in America that says, look, if you're somebody

1419
01:19:12,920 --> 01:19:16,400
Speaker 1: who feels like those costs are actually worth bearing because

1420
01:19:16,400 --> 01:19:19,840
Speaker 1: of your situation, then we actually want to allow you

1421
01:19:19,880 --> 01:19:23,000
Speaker 1: to do that, and far from causing some collapse of

1422
01:19:23,040 --> 01:19:27,479
Speaker 1: our consumer credit system, we obviously have a quite large

1423
01:19:28,160 --> 01:19:31,599
Speaker 1: consumer credit system, So I don't think we should sort

1424
01:19:31,600 --> 01:19:35,240
Speaker 1: of turn away from a bankruptcy system that works so well.

1425
01:19:36,080 --> 01:19:39,320
Speaker 1: We should recognize that student debt is just debt, and

1426
01:19:39,520 --> 01:19:42,280
Speaker 1: spending on higher education is just one way people spend money,

1427
01:19:42,479 --> 01:19:46,120
Speaker 1: and it's not some special mythical status because you're in

1428
01:19:46,120 --> 01:19:50,080
Speaker 1: the Ivory Tower and that gets treated differently than everything

1429
01:19:50,080 --> 01:19:53,200
Speaker 1: else in society. And I do love the idea about,

1430
01:19:53,360 --> 01:19:58,280
Speaker 1: you know, reinvesting in skills of vocational training. What has

1431
01:19:58,280 --> 01:20:00,400
Speaker 1: bothered me about is that it's seen as to acts

1432
01:20:00,439 --> 01:20:03,400
Speaker 1: like one one crew goes off and does the AP

1433
01:20:03,520 --> 01:20:05,120
Speaker 1: classes and then it goes to college and the other

1434
01:20:05,560 --> 01:20:09,519
Speaker 1: crew get gets shopping mechanics, And we ought to have

1435
01:20:09,560 --> 01:20:11,920
Speaker 1: that option of shop at mechanics, but I think the

1436
01:20:11,960 --> 01:20:15,160
Speaker 1: AP kids need that too. It's pathetic that nobody can

1437
01:20:15,200 --> 01:20:19,120
Speaker 1: fix anything anymore. Soft hands. Yes, everybody should be in

1438
01:20:19,479 --> 01:20:23,280
Speaker 1: both these just absolutely soft hands. Just two soft hands

1439
01:20:23,280 --> 01:20:26,080
Speaker 1: out there. Ryan didn't bring a makeup bag to work today,

1440
01:20:26,120 --> 01:20:30,880
Speaker 1: but that's true makeup bag. Folks can read actually about

1441
01:20:30,960 --> 01:20:34,400
Speaker 1: Orange plans for that pipeline over at the American Compass

1442
01:20:34,400 --> 01:20:36,760
Speaker 1: website or and this stuff is so interesting and it's

1443
01:20:36,800 --> 01:20:40,400
Speaker 1: really serious and just appreciate you coming on to chat

1444
01:20:40,439 --> 01:20:42,760
Speaker 1: about it. Really glad you guys are talking about it.

1445
01:20:42,760 --> 01:20:46,200
Speaker 1: Thanks for having of course, Well that does it for

1446
01:20:46,320 --> 01:20:49,200
Speaker 1: us today at Counterpoints Friday. This Actually that does it

1447
01:20:49,200 --> 01:20:51,559
Speaker 1: for us this week because we've been around a lot

1448
01:20:51,640 --> 01:20:54,360
Speaker 1: this week. Thanks for hanging in there with us. Actually,

1449
01:20:54,479 --> 01:20:56,519
Speaker 1: a big thanks to the crew and a big thanks

1450
01:20:56,600 --> 01:20:58,920
Speaker 1: to Ryan. I had an early scheduled today, so everyone

1451
01:20:58,920 --> 01:21:00,519
Speaker 1: had to wake up early. And are you getting to

1452
01:21:00,520 --> 01:21:03,920
Speaker 1: watch this earlier? Because that's right, that's right, And we

1453
01:21:03,960 --> 01:21:06,639
Speaker 1: got our coffee. We got our coffee, so we're we're

1454
01:21:06,640 --> 01:21:08,920
Speaker 1: good to go to. But I hope everybody is having

1455
01:21:09,040 --> 01:21:10,519
Speaker 1: a good weekend. I know it's about to get really

1456
01:21:10,520 --> 01:21:12,800
Speaker 1: cold in the Midwest and there's a lot of fall

1457
01:21:12,880 --> 01:21:14,439
Speaker 1: up from the hurricane here on the East coast. So

1458
01:21:14,520 --> 01:21:17,639
Speaker 1: hope everybody says safe and warm, have fun refreshing those

1459
01:21:17,720 --> 01:21:19,479
Speaker 1: vote tallies, and have a great weekend.