1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: Day six and we knew that would be the case, 7 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: and we said good night Friday. We told you the 8 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 2: government would still be shut down on Monday. Not a 9 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: shocker here because they did take the weekend. Now it's 10 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 2: another round of voting today that's supposed to look just 11 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 2: like what happened on Friday, about five point thirty. We 12 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 2: understand that'll be the late edition of Balance of Power. 13 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 2: It's the same CR, the same clean Republican CR and 14 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: the Democratic version that has other elements that are considered 15 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 2: toxic by Republicans. The conversation's not changed. Everyone still thinks 16 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 2: they have the moral high ground and there's no deal 17 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 2: in sight. The House, by the way, is to hang 18 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,959 Speaker 2: for another week before they come back. The Speaker, Mike 19 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 2: Johnson made that announcement on Friday. Right, they're waiting for 20 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 2: the Senate to take care of this. So why bring 21 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 2: the members back here to sit around and watch. He 22 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 2: spoke earlier today. As a matter of fact, the speaker 23 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 2: is in Washington. Here's Mike Johnson. 24 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 3: We have one plea, and one plea alone. We need 25 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 3: a handful of Democrats to stop the madness reopen the 26 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 3: government so that we can get to these critical debates 27 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 3: about the year in policy decisions with regard to the 28 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 3: further reforms to healthcare plan Simple. I'm anxious to get 29 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 3: my folks back, and look, I want to bring the 30 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 3: House back in a session and get back to work. 31 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 3: But we can't do it till they turn the lights 32 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 3: back on. 33 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 2: Keeping the lights back on interesting or getting them back on. 34 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 2: Remember how many Democrats here on the program said, sure, 35 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 2: we can close the government, but we need to have 36 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 2: a plan to reopen it, and there still doesn't seem 37 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 2: to be one. 38 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 4: Eric Watson is certainly looking. 39 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Congressional reporter hasn't missed a beat up there, and 40 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 2: he's back on the hill today with us now live 41 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: on blue Berg TV and radio. It's like Groundhog Day 42 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 2: up there, right. 43 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 5: Eric, Yeah, it looks to be. It looks like the 44 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 5: votes will fail again, you know, barring some last minute surprise, 45 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 5: and you know, we had a story on the terminal today. 46 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 5: The White House is signaling if this Monday vote does 47 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 5: go down, they're prepared to announce an unleash round of 48 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 5: mass firings. We you know, I'm not entirely sure what 49 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 5: agencies would be targeted, or even if that's an empty threat. 50 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 5: We know from past experience that you know, layoffs do 51 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 5: require a lot of paperwork. You know, human resources would 52 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,239 Speaker 5: have had to be working over time over the weekend 53 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 5: to prepare all and make sure these are legally bulletproof. 54 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 5: But you know that could be the big development today 55 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 5: if there are mass firings. We're also looking to see 56 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 5: if moderates are any closer to some kind of off 57 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 5: ramp for Democrats. You know, I talked to a well 58 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 5: placed source earlier today who said that they're trying to 59 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 5: entice just enough Democrats five Democrats to come over and 60 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 5: vote for the stopgap bill by saying, look, we'll pass 61 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 5: some of these regular appropriation spills. There's what's called a 62 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 5: minibus funding the Agricultural, Veterans, Affairs and other departments. We 63 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 5: could pass that, maybe pair the Defense bill with a Labor, 64 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 5: Health and Human Services bill, you know, that has a 65 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 5: big increase for the National Institutes of Health, so that 66 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 5: Democrats can say, Okay, look we've fought Trump's attempts to 67 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 5: cut medical research. So far that's not getting enough traction. 68 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 5: Democrats are still saying, look, we have the larger issue 69 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,360 Speaker 5: of the Obamacare subsidies, and that has to be addressed 70 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 5: in some way, not just a vague promise to deal 71 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 5: with it later before we can sign on. 72 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 2: Boy all right, well, I don't know if we're going 73 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 2: to get a layoff announcement here today, but I just 74 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 2: wonder about the two dates that everyone's looking at. 75 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 4: Eric. 76 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 2: The tenth is when federal workers start missing a pay cycle. 77 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 2: The fifteenth would be for members of the military. Would 78 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 2: those compel a couple of Democrats to cross the aisle 79 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 2: and get this done. 80 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 5: I think it's certainly a very you know, motivating factor 81 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 5: in certainly economic terms. We start to see miss paychecks, 82 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 5: you know, ramifications, the GDP start to pile up. You know, 83 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 5: the Trump shutdown on twenty nineteen really ended when air 84 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 5: traffic controllers said they're not going to work anymore without 85 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 5: pay and started to threaten to close down the skies. 86 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 5: You know, at some point, you know, do you do 87 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 5: have essential workers say look, this is enough, So you 88 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 5: know that could add some pressure if we go beyond that, though, 89 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 5: you know, both sides may even feel they want to 90 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 5: dig in. So I think there's a real feeling. You know, 91 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 5: we talked to Mike Rounds as one of these moderate 92 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 5: Republicans trying to negotiate some kind of near term deal 93 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 5: and also a deal on Obamacare subsidies, saying, look, this 94 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 5: drags out. 95 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 4: The rhetoric could get even more heated. 96 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 6: Let's do something now. 97 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 5: So far that plea is falling on deaf ears at 98 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 5: least here in the Senate. 99 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 2: You mentioned the Obamacare subsidies, which is something we certainly 100 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 2: cheat on a lot last week. Eric, whether we get 101 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,919 Speaker 2: there or not in terms of this continuing resolution, and 102 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 2: maybe there's a promise to get an up or down 103 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 2: vote on Obamacare subsidies, but what makes us think the 104 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 2: government won't just be headed for another shutdown at the 105 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 2: end of the year. Here if we can barely get 106 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: this done now, you. 107 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 5: Know, it's certainly a possibility, and I feel like, you know, 108 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 5: Republicans are hoping they kind of break Chuck Schumer here. 109 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 5: You know, if Chuck Schumer sees a defection of Democrats 110 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 5: that you know and not able to hold the line. 111 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 5: Then his you know, future threats, perhaps in December or 112 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 5: even beyond of not you know, voting for a spending bill. 113 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 4: May ring hollow. 114 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 5: We're also looking into the possibility that the Senate could 115 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 5: change its rules. It's done so for nominees. You know, 116 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 5: it could change its rules to say, for example, a 117 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 5: stopgap spending bill an event of a shutdown only requires 118 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 5: a simple majority. But there's certainly some experts who believe 119 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 5: that would be the end of the legislative philibuster, and 120 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 5: Republicans are loath to really go that far because then 121 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 5: we'll see, perhaps Democrats come in one day and make 122 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 5: DC estate, Puerto Rico estate, do other things without the 123 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 5: threat of a filibuster holding them up. 124 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 2: Keep hearing about a jail break, Eric, Right, you got Fetterman, 125 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 2: court Tes, Mastow King. That means they only need a 126 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 2: handful more Democrats here. You don't have to have a 127 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 2: grand bargain if you can peel off a couple more names, 128 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 2: right right. 129 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 5: And that's why they're really looking at certain appropriators like 130 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:20,119 Speaker 5: Jean Shaheen, people who know they're buried in these appropriations bills. 131 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 5: There are potential victories for Democrats. There is a potential 132 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 5: pushback on White House Budget Director Russell Vote, who've wanted 133 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 5: to slash all of these federal jobs. You know, if 134 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 5: the appropriations process goes forward and passes higher spending levels 135 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,679 Speaker 5: for agencies like the NIH, like the Department of Education, 136 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 5: then you certainly have a case to go to the 137 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,599 Speaker 5: Supreme Court and say Congress intended leeds to be fully 138 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 5: staffed in the absence of any bills. Certainly the White 139 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 5: House is going to see a lot more flexibility and 140 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 5: certainly see its court case before the Supreme Court enhanced. 141 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 5: So there is that argument in the backdrop. But you know, 142 00:06:56,760 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 5: the ACA issue is so paramount, and a real sense 143 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 5: among Democrats that because you know, as we reported, seventy 144 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 5: to eighty percent of recipients of Obamacare subsidies are in 145 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 5: Republican one states that the Republicans will come around on that. 146 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 5: We're also looking to see where a deal could be. 147 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 5: There's some reporting we're trying to confirm that there's a 148 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 5: White House proposal to only allow previous enrollees to get 149 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 5: the sub season from capping and ending the program. We'll 150 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 5: see if that plays out. 151 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 2: Eric Watson, great to have you, a Bloomberg congressional reporter 152 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 2: with us live from Capitol Hill. To think we're still 153 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 2: talking about this and maybe we will be a week 154 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 2: from today. We thought it would be smart with the 155 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 2: idea of a jail break at hand. Here apologies to 156 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 2: Finn Lizzie to speak with someone who's actually in the 157 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 2: middle of it. Republican Nicole Malia Takis from New York's 158 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 2: eleventh District joins us. Now, Congresswoman, it's great to have 159 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 2: you back on Bloomberg TV and radio. I know you 160 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 2: were probably planning to start packing to return to Washington 161 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 2: until just on Friday when the speakers said it would 162 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 2: be another week. So the House is clearly letting go 163 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 2: of the reins, saying we passed the bill. Now you 164 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 2: guys figure it out. Get enough Democrats on board. Is 165 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 2: that the most likely way for this to end, that 166 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 2: you peel off a couple more Democrats or does there 167 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 2: need to be some sort of agreement in principle on 168 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 2: Obamacare subsidies. 169 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 7: Well, this was already the negotiated bill that we passed 170 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 7: out of the House of Representatives. Remember this is a 171 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 7: continuation of existing funding levels that Senator Schumer himself negotiated 172 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 7: last year, voted for, and then Senate Democrats joined in 173 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 7: a bipartisan fashion to extend it three times since then. 174 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 8: So the idea that. 175 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 7: They don't want to vote for it now and they 176 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 7: were willing to shut down the government was not only 177 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,440 Speaker 7: a surprise, but I think it was a really bad 178 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 7: move on their part, because, as you mentioned in your report, 179 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 7: it's difficult to get out of this now, and the 180 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 7: Senate keeps bringing up the same bill over and over, 181 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 7: hoping that five rats Democrats will just vote for the 182 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 7: same bill that they voted for four times already. That 183 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 7: is the easiest way to get out of this, and 184 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 7: I think it's the way it's going to likely get. 185 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 7: We're going to get out of this, But in the meantime, 186 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 7: you're seeing a lot of pressures in the districts. We're seeing, 187 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 7: you know, military will not be paid on the fifteenth. 188 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 7: We're seeing the Women and Women in Infant and Children's 189 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 7: program will run out of money. That's a nutritional program 190 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 7: that is very important to many of our constituents. 191 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 8: You're going to see probably. 192 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 7: Delays at the airport as a result of TSA agents 193 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:36,959 Speaker 7: who are not getting paid being frustrated, and you'll probably 194 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 7: see a lot of other things unfolding. 195 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 8: And the economic impact, of course. 196 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 7: The GDP will be affected, consumer spending will be affected. 197 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 7: This is costing the taxpayers four hundred million dollars a day, 198 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:52,559 Speaker 7: and it's unfortunate that we came to this point. 199 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 8: It was absolutely unnecessary. 200 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 7: All we needed were the seven Democrats to join the 201 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 7: fifty three Republicans to get the sixty votes necessary to 202 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 7: pass this bill, just like they've done before. 203 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 2: And to think that the Democratic leader in the Senate 204 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 2: is from your state and you're surrounded by Democrats in 205 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 2: New York. Maybe not in your district, Congresswoman, but what 206 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 2: are you hearing when the cameras are off and guys 207 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 2: like me are not around. Will there be some common 208 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 2: ground here at some point? Do you see an off ramp? 209 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 7: I hope there will be, But it's completely in their 210 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:29,839 Speaker 7: hands at this point. I remember this passed out of 211 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 7: the House in the nineteenth and if Senator Schumer should 212 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 7: just vote for the same bill that he supported four 213 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 7: times before, and the impact here in New York, you know, 214 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 7: it's sixty one thousand military personnel that won't be paid. 215 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 7: I went around the district. Our VA Hospital thankfully is 216 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 7: operating as it always is. The clinic on Staten Island 217 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 7: is running smoothly as well. The national parks are all clean. 218 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 7: Look took a look to see we had any maintenance 219 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 7: issues as a. 220 00:10:57,920 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 8: Result of the furloughs. 221 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:01,959 Speaker 7: We don't at this time, but people, I think will 222 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 7: start feeling it more and more as time goes by. 223 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 7: And what has changed since the four times that Chuck 224 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 7: Schumer supported these funding levels that he himself negotiated. The 225 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 7: only thing that has changed is President Trump is now 226 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 7: the president. We know that they don't like him and 227 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 7: they want to do this, so I think put pressure 228 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 7: on President Trump. 229 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 8: And the other thing that changed. 230 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 7: Was that Alexandria Casier Coortez and the left wing of 231 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 7: the Democrat Party threatened to primary Senator Schumer. Those are 232 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 7: the only two things that have changed here. Everything else 233 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 7: remained the same, including the text. 234 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 8: And the bill. Now they're trying to add all. 235 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 7: Other types of outside policy initiatives into this clean funding bill. 236 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:46,199 Speaker 7: If the tables were turned and Republicans were trying to 237 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 7: jam outside policy, the scrutiny from the media and the 238 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 7: public would be outrageous. So I just asked people to 239 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 7: be honest about what's going on here and say, look, 240 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 7: there's nothing wrong with the clean extension of the funding 241 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:03,079 Speaker 7: levels that Senator Schumer negotiated and voted for four times. 242 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 7: He should just give the seven votes. Let's open the 243 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 7: government and then we can have a serious discussion about 244 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 7: some of the other policies, which I agree on some 245 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 7: level that we need to do something about, certainly the 246 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:17,559 Speaker 7: Affordable Care Act because it is not affordable as they 247 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 7: sold us when it passed. And we could talk about 248 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 7: some of those other subsidy issues, but we will not 249 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 7: accept by any means two hundred billion dollars going to 250 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 7: states that make its way to fund illegal immigrant healthcare. 251 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 8: We will just not accept that. That is not negotiable. 252 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 2: Well, okay, so there's a lot there in Congressman, but 253 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 2: I still feel like I heard the glimmer there at 254 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 2: one point that there would be some common ground if 255 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 2: the government reopens with regard to illegal immigrants making their 256 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 2: way to hospitals. And I think the way that you 257 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: said that, by the way, is duly noted. This is 258 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 2: money that comes from the federal government. States use it 259 00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 2: as sort of a fund to help hospitals from going 260 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 2: on out of business if people can't pay for their care. 261 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 4: What's the option though, You let them bleed out on 262 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 4: the street. 263 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 7: Well, no, But the first of all, this should be 264 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 7: on the states. The federal taxpayer should not be paying 265 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 7: for the sanctuary policies at the state and local level. 266 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 8: That's number one. 267 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 7: Number two, our emergency rooms should not be utilized for 268 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 7: common colds and other things that they have been, which 269 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 7: leads to tremendous overcrowding and actually hurts people who are 270 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 7: in serious emergencies. They should be going to a clinic 271 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 7: one of the local health centers and paying out of 272 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,959 Speaker 7: pocket if they have a common cold or something else. 273 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 7: So let's differentiate and make sure that people understand that 274 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 7: they are going for emergency hospitals when it's not an emergency. 275 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,439 Speaker 4: And the timespayer is picking up. 276 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 7: The bill, which is which is a tremendous burden in 277 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 7: New York olation, it's. 278 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 4: About mints around that. 279 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 2: Congresswoman. Yeah, it's a number are staggering. I completely understand. 280 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 2: I want to ask you about what russ vote is 281 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 2: talking about and whether an RIF if that happens tonight 282 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 2: the White House says it could come after this failed vote. 283 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 2: If that is in fact what takes place this afternoon, 284 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 2: does that make it more difficult for frontline Republican lawmakers 285 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:18,680 Speaker 2: in blue states like yourself. Does it make it more 286 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 2: difficult to get a deal here in Washington? 287 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 8: Look, I think there's no easy answer here. 288 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 7: But the reality is that the taxpayers are paying four 289 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 7: hundred million dollars a day to pay for individuals who 290 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 7: are currently furloughed not reporting for work. And so if 291 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 7: Senator Schumer continues this shutdown, we're going to see the 292 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 7: consequences of that. You probably will see some action taken 293 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 7: to try to save the taxpayer money. 294 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 4: Now, all of this. 295 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 7: Again can be ended today because at five point thirty 296 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 7: there will be another vote and they can just vote 297 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 7: for the same bill they voted for four times. 298 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 8: This is over and this type of pain will be prevented. 299 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 7: And so far, I'm a military person and have not 300 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 7: missed a paycheck because they'll be paid on the fifteenth. 301 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 7: They were paid on October first, but they won't be 302 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 7: paid on October fifteenth, and so that's an important deadline 303 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 7: as well. 304 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 8: We're hopeful that if we can't come to some type. 305 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 7: Of resolution that Speaker Johnson will bring us back to 306 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 7: at least vote for a bill that I'm proudly co 307 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 7: sponsoring that would allow for our military troops to be paid. 308 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 7: And you should also know that many members, including myself, 309 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 7: have asked the Treasury to withhold our paychecks to be 310 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 7: in solidarity with our military men and women. So we're 311 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 7: hoping to get this resolved again. Shooter is the one 312 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 7: that really has the power right now to end this, 313 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 7: and then we can talk about, you know, the subsidies. 314 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 8: If you want to get into that further, I'm happy 315 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:44,000 Speaker 8: to discuss it. 316 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 7: But the reality is is that the insurance companies have 317 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 7: profited two hundred and thirty percent increase since the Affordable 318 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 7: Care Act has passed. The Affordable Care Act was not 319 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 7: affordable by any means, and it has put tremendous stress 320 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 7: on the taxpayers who are paying those subject these two 321 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 7: insurance companies, not actual individuals. 322 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 2: Understood, well, I would love to talk to you more 323 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 2: about it, and you're always welcome here, Congressilman, and it's 324 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 2: good to have you back really important legislation that you 325 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 2: just mentioned that would in fact fund military paychecks. We'll 326 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 2: talk more to Congressilm and Malia Takas about that. Here 327 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 2: on Balance of Power, I'm Joe Matthew and Washington are 328 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: panels up next only here on Bloomberg. 329 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 330 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 4: more coming up after this. 331 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 332 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarclay, 333 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 334 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 335 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 336 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 2: Glad you're with us on the Monday edition, I'm Joe 337 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington, where we've got eyes on courts once again, 338 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 2: as the President tries to deploy National Guard troops to 339 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 2: a couple of different cities Portland, Oregon, Chicago, Illinois. Neither 340 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 2: of those should sound new to you. If you're with 341 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 2: us here on Balance of Power. Enter US District Judge 342 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 2: Karen Immergut, No snowflake if you look at the resume. 343 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 2: In fact, an experienced federal prosecutor worked for Ken Starr. 344 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 4: This is the good old days. On the Clinton impeachment. 345 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:24,159 Speaker 2: Literally interviewed Monica Lewinsky in nineteen ninety eight, as I 346 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 2: read in the playbook this morning, and was appointed as 347 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 2: a district judge by a president named Donald Trump in 348 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, twice now ruling against the administration in just 349 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,400 Speaker 2: two days against this deployment. The President wants to send 350 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 2: two hundred National Guard troops into Portland, which he says 351 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:47,959 Speaker 2: is burning to the ground. We've got the president here 352 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 2: talking about this about the judges specifically in this case 353 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 2: when he appointed. 354 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 4: Let's listen, I wasn't deserved well by the pigple that 355 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,719 Speaker 4: picked judges. I could tell you things like that. Are 356 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 4: It's just too bad I appointed the judge And he 357 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 4: goes like that, So I wasn't served well. 358 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 9: Obviously I don't know the judge, but if he made 359 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 9: that kind of a decision, fortly is Burnie to the ground. 360 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 9: You have agitators, insurrectionist Well you have to do is 361 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,399 Speaker 9: look at the television. Turn on your television. 362 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 2: Wasn't served well by the people picked the judges. I 363 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 2: appointed the judge, he says, goes like that, So I 364 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 2: wasn't served well. Steven Miller was yelling about it on 365 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 2: cable news over the weekend, and this is going to 366 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 2: set up a big legal clash over the deployment of 367 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 2: these troops, which is where we start our conversation with 368 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 2: our panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis, 369 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 2: coming in hot off the weekend. Genie is democracy visiting 370 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,639 Speaker 2: fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick a Republican 371 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 2: strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. The way he 372 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 2: talks about Judge Immergut, Genie, you would think that this 373 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 2: was an old Obama appointed judge. But the idea of 374 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 2: going into multiple cities now, and it looks like the 375 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 2: model that was set in DC and in LA is 376 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 2: something that well, according to Stephen Miller, they want to 377 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 2: try in all fifty states. So how important will be 378 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 2: this next ruling? 379 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 10: Well, I wonder if Donald Trump realizes that the judge 380 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 10: is indeed a woman, not a man. I heard that 381 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 10: clip there and he keeps saying he he, but it 382 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 10: is a woman who he appointed. And in all fairness, 383 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 10: no president can know all the judges they appoint. And 384 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 10: I love the end of the clip when he talks 385 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 10: about you know, just look at television, which is very 386 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 10: very much how Donald Trump seems to run his life. 387 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,680 Speaker 8: But a federal judge can't just look at. 388 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 6: Federal at television. 389 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 10: A federal judge has to look at the facts before them, 390 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 10: and the facts before her were from the Portland Police Department, 391 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 10: officials in Oregon, security forces in Oregon, all of. 392 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 8: Whom said the same thing. 393 00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 10: There is not any in Oregon, nor are there is 394 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 10: there urban decay. At most the protests in the last 395 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 10: few weeks have been twenty people per night, that the 396 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 10: Portland police are well situated to handle, and so she 397 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 10: rejected the claim. Of course, then they tried to back 398 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,400 Speaker 10: end around, and she rejected it again and said it's 399 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 10: untethered from reality, meaning that the idea that there is 400 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 10: so much chaos you need to federalize the National Guard, 401 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 10: there's just no evidence for that. So the judges can't 402 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 10: really just look at TV and make a decision. They 403 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 10: have to look at the facts, and the facts don't 404 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 10: support this nationalization of National Guard troops. 405 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 2: What do you think about this moment in time, Rick, 406 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 2: We saw LA that was kind of its own isolated experience. 407 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 2: Washington DC up the ante, but it was the federal city. 408 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 2: These rulings that we're seeing now too. Over the weekend, 409 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 2: one looming now from an appeals court could determine what 410 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 2: happens in a lot of other American cities. 411 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 4: Is that how you see it? 412 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 11: Yeah, I think that we're headed down kind of a 413 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 11: slippery slope on the constitutionality, the legality of deploying troops 414 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 11: from in this case, Texas to quell protests in cities 415 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 11: like Chicago and Portland. It really does sort of stress 416 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 11: out your common sense. Why in the world would you 417 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 11: need to do, you know, bring these guys, call them up, 418 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 11: get them to leave their jobs and their families in 419 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 11: Texas to go fight with protesters in cities that they 420 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 11: have nothing to do with. And that's just a common 421 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 11: sense side. Then you have Stephen Miller publicly, you know, 422 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 11: talking about how this judge, a Trump appointed judges, Genie 423 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 11: points out, is somehow violating the constitutional order and you know, 424 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 11: bumping up against the supremacy clause of the present. You know, 425 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:53,880 Speaker 11: things have got to be tough at the White House 426 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 11: when your chief spokesman is Stephen Miller, you know, he 427 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 11: he has a way about him that is one way 428 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,640 Speaker 11: or the highway. And American public is all about fairness. 429 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 11: They love the teams. They come from behind. They want 430 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 11: to treat their neighbors with respect. And I think it's 431 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 11: only a matter of time where this starts to get 432 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 11: picked up in a pulling data, it starts to cut 433 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 11: against the President's numbers on immigration, because a lot of 434 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 11: the premise here is that the protesters or the violence 435 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:34,640 Speaker 11: that's being happening in these cities is being perpetrated by 436 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 11: illegal immigrants. And at the end of the day, this 437 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 11: is a narrow thread to pull for this administration, and 438 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 11: if they pull too hard, they might find it breaking 439 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 11: and losing the support of the American public because of 440 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 11: the confusion that they've brought in this policy. 441 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 2: Genie, when we talk about invasions, when we talk about 442 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 2: domestic terrorism, and I'm looking at Steven Miller's tweet in 443 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:05,160 Speaker 2: which she said the president won in a colossal landslide, 444 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 2: therefore has an absolute moral and constitutional duty to follow 445 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 2: through calling the ice protesters in American cities domestic terrorism. 446 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,919 Speaker 2: We just came off a couple of weeks ago another 447 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 2: terrible spat of political violence in this country that was 448 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 2: blamed squarely on rhetoric, and in the eyes of this administration, 449 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 2: rhetoric from the left. 450 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 4: How do we rationalize this approach. Now, yeah, it's hard 451 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 4: to rationalize. 452 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 10: I think it was Stephen Miller over the weekend who also, 453 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 10: in addition to what you said, he also used the 454 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,399 Speaker 10: term described what's going on as a legal insurrection, and 455 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:48,919 Speaker 10: of course insurrection has that is a very serious crime 456 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 10: that you are accusing federal judges of. We shouldn't movese 457 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 10: sight of the fact that as the first Monday in October, 458 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 10: this is also the opening of the Supreme Court's term, 459 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 10: and so many of these questions about federal power, especially 460 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 10: executive power, will be addressed by that court. But the 461 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 10: reality is is that there are justifications for nationalizing the 462 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 10: Federal Guard. The problem is, no judge yet has found 463 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 10: those justifications have been met at the district level. We 464 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 10: did see the Ninth Circuit. At the appellate level, these 465 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 10: things have to be debated in court, and the administration 466 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 10: has to prove that there is a reason for doing this. 467 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 10: And I think one of the most chilling things I 468 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 10: heard over the weekend came from the Minneapolis Star Tribune. 469 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 10: They had some terrific reporting about administration official out there 470 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:46,439 Speaker 10: using signal again to talk about the homeland securities sending 471 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 10: in the eighty second airborne into cities like Portland and 472 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 10: like Chicago. Now, this is a report out of the 473 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 10: Minneapolis Star Tribune. It has to be verified by other networks, 474 00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 10: et cetera. 475 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 12: But one of this chilling things about this was apparently, 476 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 12: according to their reporting, Pete Hegseth was not convinced they 477 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 12: should do this, and yet they should send in the 478 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 12: National Guard instead. In other words, what we're seeing now 479 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 12: as so concerning about. 480 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 10: The National Guard is not only the tip of the 481 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,440 Speaker 10: iceberg about what people like Stephen Miller are talking about 482 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 10: when it comes to sending in troops into American cities. 483 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 10: And to Rick's point, this is not something that American 484 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 10: public is likely going to welcome with open arms. 485 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 8: And it's also something that flies in the face of. 486 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 10: Everything the Republican Party has says for years and decades 487 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 10: when it comes to states' rights. So there's a lot here, 488 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 10: and I think Stephen Miller has a problem of overreading 489 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 10: an election win, and in doing so he threatens to 490 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 10: undermine the president's good poll numbers on immigration and crime. 491 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 4: You know, we heard from the mayor of Chicago as well. 492 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 2: The deployment has not begun there, at least in a 493 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 2: real way, but it could be coming, and Tech has 494 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 2: offered some National Guard troops to help out in that end. 495 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 2: But I want to bring everybody back to last week 496 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,119 Speaker 2: for a moment when the President was speaking at Quantico. 497 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 4: Pete Hegseth was there as well. Remember, he talked. 498 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:14,639 Speaker 2: About using American cities as training grounds for the US military. 499 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 2: The quote, though, was to help quell an enemy within quote. 500 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,680 Speaker 2: No different than a foreign enemy, he said, but more 501 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 2: difficult in many ways because they don't wear uniforms. This 502 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 2: is a direct quote. At least when they're wearing a uniform, 503 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 2: he said, you can take them out unquote. 504 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:39,760 Speaker 13: Mayor of Chicago, Brandon Johnson, Listen, if we break the law, 505 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 13: you should be held accountable. If Congress will not check 506 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 13: this administration, then Chicago will. For now, let me just 507 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,360 Speaker 13: say that we are unequivocally going to continue to reject 508 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,880 Speaker 13: the military occupation of our city. The Trump administration must 509 00:26:56,080 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 13: end the war on Chicago. The Trump administration must end 510 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:08,879 Speaker 13: this war against Americans. The Trump administration must end its 511 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 13: attempt to dismantle our democracy. 512 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 4: What do you make of this rhetoric? 513 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 2: Rick, At least when they're wearing a uniform, you can 514 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 2: take them out that you hear the mayor of Chicago, 515 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 2: he does make it sound like a president that is 516 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 2: aiming at his own people. 517 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,719 Speaker 4: How about you. Yeah, it's a it's tough to uh, 518 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:31,200 Speaker 4: tough to legitimatize. 519 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 14: Uh. 520 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 11: Treating Americans as sort of counterinsurgency strategies is really not 521 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 11: gonna not going to meet the moment. 522 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 14: Uh. 523 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,399 Speaker 11: You know, you've started out talking him a little bit 524 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 11: on this segment about political violence. We've seen it cropping 525 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 11: up almost on a daily basis now since we focused 526 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 11: in on Charlie Kirk's killing, and and and I don't 527 00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 11: see any effort on a part of this administration to 528 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 11: try and tamp down that political violence, something they made 529 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 11: a great theater around at the time of Charlie's killing, 530 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 11: but subsequently seem to only be stoking it up. I mean, 531 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 11: I really do worry that people in these cities who 532 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 11: are law abiding citizens, whose lives are going to be 533 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 11: turned upside down by the presidence of federal troops in 534 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:29,119 Speaker 11: their cities, are going to start to react in a 535 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 11: way that is more violent. I mean, we're not deconflicting, 536 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:33,920 Speaker 11: We're increasing the temperature. 537 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 4: And that's something right now this country sorely needs. 538 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 11: A rest from so I don't know's it'll be interesting 539 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 11: to see if coolerheads prevail in the administration. If Stephen 540 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 11: Miller's writing the script, you know it's going to be 541 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 11: a dark day. 542 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 4: Boy. 543 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 2: Some honesty from Rick and Jeanie. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie 544 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 2: Schanzano and Rick Davis. 545 00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 546 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 4: more coming up after this. 547 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 548 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 549 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 550 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 551 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say. 552 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 4: Alexa Play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty. 553 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 2: We've had our eyes on a briefing at the White House. 554 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,080 Speaker 2: Press Secretary Caroline Levitt holding forth reminding us of a 555 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 2: couple of important events that are coming up over the 556 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 2: course of this week. A cabinet meeting along with a 557 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 2: visit from the Finland President on Thursday. Mark Karney, Prime 558 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,320 Speaker 2: Minister Canada, is going to be here tomorrow. So we're 559 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,480 Speaker 2: already building out a pretty busy week that is of course, 560 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,320 Speaker 2: laid against the backdrop of a now six day long 561 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 2: government shutdown. There will be voting if you're just joining us, 562 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 2: likely in the five o'clock hour in the Senate, and 563 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 2: the very same results is expected. 564 00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 4: They are likely to fail, so we'll meet on days two. 565 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 2: Of the big questions at the Red Sea resort of 566 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 2: Charms l Shaik today is whether Hamas will in fact 567 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 2: free the hostages and whether Israel will withdraw from Gaza. 568 00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,040 Speaker 2: In terms of the former, It's something President Trump talked 569 00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,320 Speaker 2: about on his way out of town yesterday. 570 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 6: Let's listen what we had some very. 571 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 14: Good meetings sev the countries of the world, A lot 572 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 14: of the countries surrounding Israel, frankly Muslim, Arab and many others, 573 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 14: have had great meetings with imajs, and it looks like 574 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 14: it's working. 575 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 2: We're joined by a voice of great experience on this matter, 576 00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:44,080 Speaker 2: David Hale, global fellow with the Wilson Center and former 577 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 2: Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, former Special Envoy for 578 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,400 Speaker 2: Middle East Piece twenty eleven to thirteen. 579 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 4: I could keep going down the resume here. 580 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 2: There's also Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israel Egypt 581 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 2: and the Levant in eight nine, Director for Israel Palestinian 582 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 2: Affairs two thousand and one to three. So, mister ambassador, 583 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:03,160 Speaker 2: we've been looking forward to this conversation. 584 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 4: It's good to see you. 585 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 6: Likewise, thank you. 586 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 2: I can only imagine the complex thoughts that you have 587 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,680 Speaker 2: right now based on your experience. But I go back 588 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 2: to where we were last week, just to start off 589 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:18,000 Speaker 2: our conversation, Benjamin Etna, who was in Washington, the American people, 590 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:21,080 Speaker 2: in a room full of state, dining room full of media, 591 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 2: were presented with what was called a deal. No questions 592 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:28,400 Speaker 2: were taken. Now a week later, we're having talks. When 593 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 2: people thought that the talks had resulted in a deal. 594 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 2: Where are we actually in this process. 595 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 15: Well, as always with this administration, things are kind of 596 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 15: a little bit disorganized and not necessarily in keeping with 597 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 15: conventional ways and doing business. But I think that the 598 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 15: important thing to remember is that all these leaders are 599 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 15: in New York during the annual opening of the UN 600 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 15: General Assembly. So I imagine that behind the scenes there 601 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,640 Speaker 15: are a great deal of conversations that occurred between Arab leaders, Israel, 602 00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 15: European leaders, and Donald Trump. And so I wouldn't say 603 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 15: that this was just born yesterday. I think the plan 604 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,000 Speaker 15: has been an evolution. It's actually serious. It addresses the 605 00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 15: real issues that no one has been addressing about what 606 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,880 Speaker 15: the day after a ceasefire is going to look like. 607 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,840 Speaker 15: But it doesn't appear that Hamas was fully involved in this, 608 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 15: and of course they do have the gun to the 609 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 15: head of these early hostages, so we've got to get 610 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 15: over it yet again, this obstacle of how do you 611 00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,240 Speaker 15: get a ceasefire and prisoner exchange and deal with that problem? 612 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 11: Yes? 613 00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 2: Right, The President says he wants them to act fast, 614 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 2: knowing the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday. 615 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,320 Speaker 2: Maybe I shouldn't conflate those two, but is it possible 616 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 2: for this to be taken care of this week? 617 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 4: If we're that far down the road, it could be. 618 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 15: It's not as if this hasn't been discussed forever. In 619 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 15: a day, and of course over and over and over again. 620 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:51,080 Speaker 15: There's a split between Hamas. They have a more perhaps realistic, 621 00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 15: I won't say moderate, but realistic wing, the political wing 622 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:57,200 Speaker 15: and Katar. I think the Turkish president Ratwan has been 623 00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 15: working on them and to convince them to go in the. 624 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 6: Military side of the equation. 625 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 15: Izadin is in Gaza and calling the shots, and of 626 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,760 Speaker 15: course their only leverage left are these hostages. So they 627 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,440 Speaker 15: want concrete guarantees about the day after which the Israeli 628 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,640 Speaker 15: governments unlikely to provide. So the pressure that the president's 629 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,800 Speaker 15: applying is the right way to go about this, pressure 630 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 15: of time, pressure of military responses if the Humas team 631 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 15: doesn't react, and pressure is also coming probably from the 632 00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 15: Palestinian people themselves, who must be more than fed. 633 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:28,560 Speaker 4: Up with this. 634 00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 2: You call this a serious plan. Is Hamas a serious 635 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 2: player at the negotiating table? 636 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 15: Well, I think if this works, you know, part of 637 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,680 Speaker 15: why it's going to be difficult to get Hamas to 638 00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,520 Speaker 15: agree to release the hostages is that the plan deals 639 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 15: them out right politically, they will not have a say so. 640 00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,920 Speaker 6: And so that is a recognition of reality on the. 641 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 15: Part of where the Israeli public is, even many Arabs, 642 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:54,240 Speaker 15: certainly the United States. But Hamas is going to have 643 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 15: a hard time swallowing that. So I think that, you know, 644 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,080 Speaker 15: the fact of the matter is that their leaders, if 645 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,440 Speaker 15: they want to survive, I've come to the point where 646 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,479 Speaker 15: it's time to move and move out of Gaza. 647 00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 2: The accept the plan or all help breaks loose mantra 648 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 2: from the president would mean what. 649 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:14,399 Speaker 4: If this didn't work out? 650 00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:18,399 Speaker 2: I mean you're bombing, literally bombing rubble at this point. 651 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,839 Speaker 4: Did they flood the tunnels? What else could be done 652 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 4: by the IDF? 653 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:22,960 Speaker 6: Well, I don't know. 654 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:24,799 Speaker 15: I'm sure they have their options. I mean, they were 655 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,560 Speaker 15: planning to move into Gaza City and occupy it, which 656 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,840 Speaker 15: would involve frankly, rather risky, you know, building to building 657 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,320 Speaker 15: block to block warfare, which I don't think any soldier 658 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,320 Speaker 15: would relish. So it's a real threat, but it's definitely 659 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,680 Speaker 15: Plan B. I think Plan A is that all of 660 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 15: these various pressure points put on Hamas may make them 661 00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 15: finally do this deal. 662 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:45,880 Speaker 6: Now they could get a lot out of it. 663 00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,400 Speaker 15: I mean if the equation is that, of course, a 664 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,640 Speaker 15: number of Palestinian prisoners would be released, including very prominent 665 00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:56,040 Speaker 15: personalities and the remains of the two Sinmar brothers who 666 00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:57,400 Speaker 15: were assassinated by Israel. 667 00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 2: I've got a bit of a headline cross of the 668 00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:01,480 Speaker 2: term a couple of them from President Trump. 669 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,240 Speaker 4: Not related to what we're talking about. It's about tariffs. 670 00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,879 Speaker 2: Beginning the first of November, all medium and heavy duty 671 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:12,720 Speaker 2: trucks coming into the United States from other nations, he writes, 672 00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,680 Speaker 2: will be tariff at a rate of twenty five percent. 673 00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:19,520 Speaker 2: We'd heard about the tariff on heavy trucks. Having the 674 00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 2: November first date is news here. It just went read 675 00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,040 Speaker 2: on the terminal and it's a story that of course 676 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:30,239 Speaker 2: will be tracking throughout the day here. That meeting a 677 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:34,200 Speaker 2: week ago with Benjamin Etna, who was obviously interesting timing. 678 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,400 Speaker 2: Did the President have to twist his arm to the 679 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,279 Speaker 2: extent that reports would suggest to get there, Well. 680 00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:40,600 Speaker 6: I don't know, but my guess as he did. 681 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:40,919 Speaker 14: Yeah. 682 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:44,440 Speaker 15: I think that Primision Netnah, who is very reluctant to 683 00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:48,759 Speaker 15: remove the tool of military pressure on Hamas, and he 684 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 15: has a right wing element in his coalition that not 685 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 15: only wants to exterminate his Mala militarily, excuse me Jumas militarily, 686 00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:00,400 Speaker 15: but wants to permanently occupy and return settlements to Gaza. 687 00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:03,719 Speaker 15: And so he has to balance these political equations. But 688 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,080 Speaker 15: we also see there's seventy percent support for this deal 689 00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,840 Speaker 15: among the Israeli public. So I think for neet Yahoo 690 00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,400 Speaker 15: it's maybe not as hard as people are projecting. But 691 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,680 Speaker 15: President Trump was clearly determined to do this. He's serious 692 00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,840 Speaker 15: about it, and a forestl president like that can accomplish 693 00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:19,319 Speaker 15: a great deal. 694 00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,719 Speaker 2: When you're dealing with the matter of hostages. Kind of 695 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,359 Speaker 2: complicates a potential cease fire here, And I'm wondering how 696 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:31,560 Speaker 2: as a diplomat, how that plays into negotiations. Are there 697 00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,520 Speaker 2: separate teams that work on that, and how formal should 698 00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:39,360 Speaker 2: be the handing over of the hostages and the bodies 699 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:40,479 Speaker 2: of those who died. 700 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,160 Speaker 15: Well, I found my stomach turning when I watched those 701 00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:46,360 Speaker 15: initial images the first hostage exchanges where the AMAS was 702 00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:50,640 Speaker 15: allowed to basically exercise theater with these people it's terrifield 703 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:54,279 Speaker 15: and basements and so forth, had their colleagues killed. So 704 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,279 Speaker 15: hopefully it won't be formal. Hopefully it will be up 705 00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,839 Speaker 15: to the normal international standards. There are lots of ways 706 00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,920 Speaker 15: to do that. ICR Seed, the International Red Cross can 707 00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 15: help with that red crest in society that honors and 708 00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:10,719 Speaker 15: protects the dignity of the hostages. But did you know 709 00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 15: President Trump again I worked in his first term, he 710 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:18,520 Speaker 15: puts hostage issues at the top of the agenda Americans 711 00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,360 Speaker 15: or other nationals in ways that very few presidents in 712 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,480 Speaker 15: my experience have, And that's part I think of why 713 00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:25,960 Speaker 15: he is so motivated to try to bring this tragedy 714 00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 15: to an end. 715 00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 4: It's really interesting you bring that up. 716 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,880 Speaker 2: Whether he's talking about the hostages here, he always stops 717 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,960 Speaker 2: down and says, you know, the families, even with those 718 00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,040 Speaker 2: who lost their loved ones, they still want the body back. 719 00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:39,840 Speaker 2: He always comes back around to talk about how remarkable 720 00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,239 Speaker 2: that is to make that point. When you hear him 721 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,239 Speaker 2: talk about the war in Ukraine and the number of 722 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:47,680 Speaker 2: young men and women who are dying each week, he 723 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:49,840 Speaker 2: talks about the only thing that can stop a bullet 724 00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:53,640 Speaker 2: is the human body. The terrible death, the tremendous death. 725 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,600 Speaker 2: As he puts it, Is this a man consumed with 726 00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,840 Speaker 2: his own mortality or that of others? 727 00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:02,640 Speaker 4: I just asked you the wrong question. 728 00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,120 Speaker 2: I think I find that to be a very compelling 729 00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:08,040 Speaker 2: point of his personality and character that very few people 730 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:10,360 Speaker 2: probably are exposed to. 731 00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,720 Speaker 15: But you work for well, you may be onto something 732 00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:17,840 Speaker 15: I just struck as a diplomat that often hostage issues 733 00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:19,760 Speaker 15: are not always put at the top of the agendas. 734 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:24,160 Speaker 15: It's just different presidents have different priorities. But this president 735 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,719 Speaker 15: clearly has prioritized it. Perhaps for the reason you said 736 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,440 Speaker 15: I don't know, But what I will say is that 737 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 15: his ability to apply leverage to get hostages out may 738 00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,080 Speaker 15: clear the way then for what's even more important than 739 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:40,320 Speaker 15: the hostage issue, which is bringing this violence in this 740 00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:45,279 Speaker 15: situation in Gaza, and the insecurity for israelis emanating from 741 00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,960 Speaker 15: it to an end. Now, I'm not an optimist in 742 00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,520 Speaker 15: the Middle East peace process. I think that optimism is 743 00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,960 Speaker 15: you know, you have to have a head, you know, 744 00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,080 Speaker 15: examined if you're a total optimist about it. 745 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,000 Speaker 6: But again, this plan is not pie in the sky. 746 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:02,080 Speaker 15: The twenty point plan is about much more basic, realistic, 747 00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:06,520 Speaker 15: you know, getting basic governance in place with qualified Palestinians 748 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:07,719 Speaker 15: and international experts. 749 00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,000 Speaker 6: It's about security provided by Arab. 750 00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:16,120 Speaker 15: States primarily, and some international troops there to stabilize Gaza. 751 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:20,360 Speaker 15: But above all it requires Hamas first and foremost to disarm. 752 00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,320 Speaker 2: Well, we get to the end of this, assuming that 753 00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,480 Speaker 2: this ends, and a great deal of credit will be 754 00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,480 Speaker 2: owed to Jared Kushner. Did he end up providing a 755 00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,200 Speaker 2: critical playing a critical role here? 756 00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,800 Speaker 15: Well, I don't know, again, but I think that the 757 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,719 Speaker 15: nuances of this plan suggest that somebody with the kind 758 00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:41,160 Speaker 15: of proprior experience that Jared had from the first term 759 00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,920 Speaker 15: was probably involved interesting and so my guess is that 760 00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,040 Speaker 15: he probably helps shape it. And the fact that he's 761 00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:49,960 Speaker 15: in Egypt helping Steve Witkoff with this is also a 762 00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:53,440 Speaker 15: good sign that demonstrates it redoubled presidential commitment to this. 763 00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,520 Speaker 15: And you know, presidential involvement in Middle East piece has 764 00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:58,160 Speaker 15: become the coin of the realm. 765 00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:00,000 Speaker 6: Without it, it's very hard to get anywhere. 766 00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:02,719 Speaker 4: Not right, how often has it been due? 767 00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:04,959 Speaker 2: How usual or unusual is that to have someone who's 768 00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:08,279 Speaker 2: actually not a member of the administration step in and 769 00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,839 Speaker 2: provide the insights or the salves needed at that moment. 770 00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,719 Speaker 15: Yeah, it's happened less on Middle East peace. But I 771 00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:19,280 Speaker 15: think back on Jimmy Carter's retired president going to North Korea. 772 00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:19,839 Speaker 4: That's right. 773 00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,440 Speaker 15: I think of Richardson similarly going to North Korea. You 774 00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,960 Speaker 15: can go all the way back to FDR even the 775 00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:32,360 Speaker 15: Wilson administration. That a trusted aid and friend is respected 776 00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:35,560 Speaker 15: by international partners if he also knows what he's doing. 777 00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the fascinating components all of this. We haven't 778 00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:42,160 Speaker 2: talked about Iran. We haven't talked about Iran's proxies other 779 00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:46,560 Speaker 2: than Hamas. When you consider Yemen, when you consider Hezbollah, 780 00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:52,759 Speaker 2: will there be a fit of opposition, maybe violence in 781 00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:55,160 Speaker 2: the wake of a deal being struck, because that would 782 00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,440 Speaker 2: indicate that they're out of business now. 783 00:40:58,000 --> 00:40:59,799 Speaker 15: I don't think the Iranians are in a position right 784 00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:03,279 Speaker 15: now to mount the kind of opposition, violent opposition to 785 00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:06,440 Speaker 15: peace process making that they did in the past. The 786 00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:09,320 Speaker 15: DEFAUSS and so forth had a heavy hand of Iran, 787 00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,760 Speaker 15: but they're lying low. They don't want to be whacked anymore. 788 00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,760 Speaker 15: It doesn't mean they've given up. They want they assume 789 00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:18,719 Speaker 15: we're going to lose interest at some point, walk away, 790 00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,040 Speaker 15: and then they can rebuild their strength. I think you 791 00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:22,960 Speaker 15: will find there are going to be elements in Gaza 792 00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,880 Speaker 15: who do not want this. I'm not even sure Hamas 793 00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:29,120 Speaker 15: is in full control of the bands of armed men 794 00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:33,480 Speaker 15: who have emerged in the chaos there, and so it's 795 00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:35,719 Speaker 15: going to be tough, and that's why a stabilization force 796 00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:36,600 Speaker 15: is going to be required. 797 00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:38,520 Speaker 4: Absolutely, bands of armed men. 798 00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:43,920 Speaker 2: Whatever fills that vacuum could be actually making it an 799 00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:44,919 Speaker 2: even more dangerous place. 800 00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,319 Speaker 15: Your point, which is one reason why these Israelis don't 801 00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,600 Speaker 15: want a full pull out. That's why they've sure drawn 802 00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:50,319 Speaker 15: this yellow line. 803 00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:54,120 Speaker 4: Fascinating. If this meeting goes well today, do we meet again? 804 00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:55,360 Speaker 4: What should be the next step? 805 00:41:56,800 --> 00:42:00,359 Speaker 15: Well, if this meeting is successful, then the hardware begin. 806 00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:02,400 Speaker 15: Some mean we always think getting into agreement is the 807 00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,160 Speaker 15: hard part. Actually implementing often can be even more challenging. 808 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,600 Speaker 15: So getting a ceasefire and making sure that there is 809 00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:11,200 Speaker 15: a real hostage exchange and that above all the disarmament 810 00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:12,920 Speaker 15: of his bolog is for real and not pretend. 811 00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,560 Speaker 2: Well, really great conversation and delighted that you could spend 812 00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:18,560 Speaker 2: some time with us, David. He's a global fellow with 813 00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:20,600 Speaker 2: the Wilson Center, and I think I made clear his 814 00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:24,440 Speaker 2: extensive background and experience in this area, Ambassador. Thank you 815 00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,120 Speaker 2: David Hale the Wilson Center with us on Bloomberg TV 816 00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,280 Speaker 2: and radio. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 817 00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:34,040 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 818 00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,719 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 819 00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,600 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at New Time 820 00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:41,520 Speaker 2: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.