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Speaker 1: This is the primal scream of a dying regime. Pray

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Speaker 1: for our enemies because we're going to medieval on these people.

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Speaker 1: You've not got a free shot. All these networks lying

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Speaker 1: about the people, the people have had a belly full

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Speaker 1: of it.

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Speaker 2: I know you don't like hearing that.

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Speaker 1: I know you've tried to do everything in the world.

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Speaker 2: To stop that, but you're not going to stop it.

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Speaker 2: It's going to happen.

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Speaker 3: And where do people like that go to share the

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Speaker 3: big line? Mega media?

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Speaker 4: I wish in my soul, I wish that any of

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Speaker 4: these people had a conscience.

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Speaker 1: Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose?

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Speaker 5: If that answer is to save my country, this country

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Speaker 5: will be saved.

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Speaker 6: Or use your host, Stephen Kman.

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Speaker 1: It's Easter Monday, six April, Year of Our Lord twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Later day, at one o'clock, there's going to be a

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Speaker 1: press briefing by the present United States about the situation

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Speaker 1: in Iran and potential ceasefire. Although I think they may

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Speaker 1: have already been rejected by the by the regime, We're

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Speaker 1: going to get into all that. We've got an all

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Speaker 1: star lineup of analysts and observers to walk us through

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Speaker 1: this breaking down. Off of you, We're going to play

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Speaker 1: and for those with a sensitive ears or children, we're

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Speaker 1: going to play the newscast from yesterday's news, as we

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Speaker 1: always do in the cold open. Lets you see a

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Speaker 1: wide range of what happened. Some of the language is

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Speaker 1: a little harsh because they're quoting a true social that

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Speaker 1: the Commander in chief put out at five am Eastern

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Speaker 1: daylight time yesterday morning. Let's go ahead and let it rip,

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Speaker 1: to open the.

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Speaker 7: War room no longer.

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Speaker 4: He has just threatened Iran in extraordinary graphic terms, giving

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Speaker 4: the Iranian regime just over a day to either make

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Speaker 4: a deal, reopen the strait of horror moves, or face hell.

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Speaker 4: If your children are watching, be warned the President did

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Speaker 4: not use polite language.

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Speaker 3: Quote Tuesday will.

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Speaker 4: Be power plant day and bridge day, all wrapped up

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Speaker 4: in one in Iran.

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Speaker 3: There will be nothing like it.

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Speaker 4: Open the fucking straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be

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Speaker 4: living in hell.

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Speaker 6: Just watch.

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Speaker 4: We should note that destroying civilian power infrastructure is generally

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Speaker 4: considered to constitute a war crime under international law, though

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Speaker 4: the President could argue that the infrastructure has dual use

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Speaker 4: and also is utilized by Iran's military.

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Speaker 8: Sure, So then how does this resolve itself? Because let's

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Speaker 8: assume that you know, there isn't a kind of totally

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Speaker 8: dramatic escalation where you have a complete for all, but

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Speaker 8: Trump decides to do more bombing and then just quit

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Speaker 8: and say ten days or two weeks, the straight remains

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Speaker 8: closed at that point.

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Speaker 9: Is it left to you.

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Speaker 8: Know, be a country like Saudi Arabia to find some

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Speaker 8: way to negotiate with Iran and open the strait.

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Speaker 9: For you? There's two great unresolved issues.

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Speaker 10: One I know you'll talk about later, which is the

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Speaker 10: nuclear issue. And we could be looking at if you

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Speaker 10: will open ended bombing by Israel and the United States

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Speaker 10: kind of rather than having a formal negotiator arrangement kind

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Speaker 10: of red lines, and if and when Iran were to

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Speaker 10: move against them, they would be recurring military activity on

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Speaker 10: the Strait. It's what I've described as we broke it,

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Speaker 10: you own it. The President could simply walk away and say,

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Speaker 10: as he's posted, that the United States is not directly

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Speaker 10: dependent on energy moving through the Strait, and then I

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Speaker 10: think it's unrealistic to expect the local Arab countries or

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Speaker 10: the Europeans to free it up. So I think then

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Speaker 10: we're looking at a long term situation where Iron derives

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Speaker 10: enormous revenue, not to mention political leverage from operating the Strait,

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Speaker 10: and I would think that that ought to be an

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Speaker 10: unacceptable situation if you had those two things together, the

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Speaker 10: Strait and the nuclear talk about being worse off after

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Speaker 10: initiating a war of choice that didn't have to happen.

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Speaker 10: Strategically and economically, the United States and the world, as

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Speaker 10: your opening takes suggested, would be far worse Oftan it

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Speaker 10: was five weeks ago.

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Speaker 11: President Trump is expected to detail the rescue of an

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Speaker 11: American airman whose aircraft was blown out of the sky

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Speaker 11: over Iran. He's also expected to take reporters questions afterwards,

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Speaker 11: and there are many why the expletive filled social media.

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Speaker 12: Posts in Iran?

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Speaker 11: Will he stick to his deadline at eight pm tomorrow

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Speaker 11: for creating, as he put it, hell on Earth? If

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Speaker 11: Iran doesn't open the Strait of her moves and what's

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Speaker 11: happening with ceasefire negotiations, hardly.

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Speaker 8: Anyone could argue that Iran posed a threat to its neighbors,

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Speaker 8: let alone to the United States, which sits roughly six

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Speaker 8: thousand miles away. Donald Trump effectively admitted this on Wednesday.

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Speaker 5: We don't have to be there, but we're there to

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Speaker 5: help our allies.

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Speaker 8: It's worth noting that none of America's European or Asian

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Speaker 8: allies were consulted, and many have spoken out against the war.

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Speaker 8: In fact, reports suggests that Prime Minister Bibi Nataniell, who's

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Speaker 8: sol Trump on this war, not because Iran was an

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Speaker 8: imminent threat, but because its unprecedented weakness provided an opportunity

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Speaker 8: to strike hard to affect regime change. Why else would

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Speaker 8: Trump have closed his brief announcement at the start of

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Speaker 8: the war by urging the Iranian people to rise up

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Speaker 8: and overthrow the regime, a call echoed by Natanielle, who,

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Speaker 8: in his own message.

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Speaker 13: Tuesday will be power plant Day and bridge Day, all

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Speaker 13: wrapped up in one.

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Speaker 7: In Iran.

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Speaker 3: There will be nothing like it.

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Speaker 13: Open the fucking straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be

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Speaker 13: living in hell. Just watch praise be to Allah end quote.

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Speaker 13: That's what the President of the United States has just posted.

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Speaker 14: So you have a theocratic regime with a lot of

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Speaker 14: military power that has not been destroyed as much as

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Speaker 14: the President and Secretary of Hexseth want to talk about

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Speaker 14: the body count as it were, of missiles and launchers

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Speaker 14: and the capability to shoot. You know, Iran shot some

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Speaker 14: more missiles into Israel just today.

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Speaker 7: So you're seeing.

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Speaker 14: A regime that's hanging on, that is saying we are

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Speaker 14: now being attacked. It's hard to overcome forty seven years

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Speaker 14: of screaming at the US and Israel that they are

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Speaker 14: their great Satan. We're even worse Satans now because we

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Speaker 14: seem to be killing a lot of civilians and trying

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Speaker 14: to damage institutions which are rebelling against it. So I

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Speaker 14: think it's going to take a lot longer time, and

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Speaker 14: I agree with David Ignatius about letting it die its

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Speaker 14: own death. I also agree with Mark that it's going

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Speaker 14: to die eventually, but I think it's going to be

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Speaker 14: much longer.

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Speaker 15: So Joe, I think we're still balanced between the two

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Speaker 15: fundamental themes of this war. Tactical brilliance of the United

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Speaker 15: States military was demonstrated in a different way with this

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Speaker 15: rescue mission. Was an amazing feet of arms showed off

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Speaker 15: our special operations forces the way they can do things

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Speaker 15: nobody else on the planet can. But it also showed

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Speaker 15: that Iran can withstand our best punch and has got

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Speaker 15: an asset in the straight of Hormon moves that it's

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Speaker 15: very hard to take away absent diplomacy. I've been thinking

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Speaker 15: that if Trump did go through with his threat to

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Speaker 15: blow to smithereens, every power plant, bridge, et cetera, that

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Speaker 15: would probably make the straight of Home moves impassable for decades.

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Speaker 15: It would lead behind such ruin and rage that the

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Speaker 15: idea of reopening under any circumstances would be almost impossible.

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Speaker 15: I'm not sure Trump thinks through the consequences of that action.

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Speaker 15: So we're again at a moment where to me the

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Speaker 15: path out of this towards thing that will stabilize the

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Speaker 15: region and achieve the basic or goals the United States

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Speaker 15: requires us to work with our allies towards some kind.

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Speaker 7: Of diplomatic solution.

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Speaker 15: The idea you could just keep panneling the other guy

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Speaker 15: and he's going to eventually say, Okay, that's it. I

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Speaker 15: think the evidence in this war points in a quite

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Speaker 15: different direction so.

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Speaker 8: Far, aside from devastating Iran and crippling it's already weak military,

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Speaker 8: which was predictable in such a one sided contest. Few

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Speaker 8: of the desired results have been achieved. The regime has

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Speaker 8: not fallen, key leaders have changed for the worse. The

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Speaker 8: eighty six year old Ayatola Jamini, who famously banned the

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Speaker 8: development of nuclear weapons, was killed and replaced by his son,

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Speaker 8: who is said to be more hardline than his father.

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Speaker 9: In general, the revolutionary.

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Speaker 8: Guards, who have always been more militant, seemed to be ascended,

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Speaker 8: which makes sense in times of war. The trade of Hormos,

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Speaker 8: which was free and opened despite many threats through forty

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Speaker 8: seven years of US Iran tensions, is now blocked by

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Speaker 8: the new leadership, whom Trump terms much more reasonable. President

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Speaker 8: Trump says that after a few more bombing runs, the

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Speaker 8: strait will open naturally because Iran will want to export

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Speaker 8: its own oil.

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Speaker 9: This misreads the situation. The strait is not closed.

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Speaker 8: It is open to Iranian oil, which is flowing freely,

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Speaker 8: especially to China.

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Speaker 9: The net result of the.

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Speaker 8: War is that Iran now makes about twice as much

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Speaker 8: on its daily oil sales compared to before the conflict.

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Speaker 9: In addition, if it continues to charge or.

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Speaker 8: Reported two million dollars per passing ship, Daron will make

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Speaker 8: hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue every month,

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Speaker 8: enough to rebuild its military and more. America's golf allies

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Speaker 8: now face a far more unstable and tense environment than

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Speaker 8: they did before the war. Their business models require p

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Speaker 8: stability and economic integration. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin

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Speaker 8: Salman had mended ties with Iran in twenty twenty three

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Speaker 8: because he wanted to calm geopolitical words to pursue his

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Speaker 8: ambitious program of modernization. Today, all that progress is in

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Speaker 8: jeopardy as oil exports are crippled and the region has

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Speaker 8: gone from having a path to be an oasis of

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Speaker 8: stability rather than a cauldron of conflict.

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Speaker 16: We're learning more about this ceasfire and potential to see

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Speaker 16: whether or not there could be a deal before the

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Speaker 16: deadline tomorrow that the President.

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Speaker 9: Has said I should not.

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Speaker 16: He actually extended that it was supposed to be this evening.

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Speaker 16: He then appeared to extend it until eight pm tomorrow,

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Speaker 16: but to see if these potential talks could at least

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Speaker 16: be staved off for the time being, because as we

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Speaker 16: heard from the present, particularly in that expletive Leyden post

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Speaker 16: that he shared yesterday, really threatening to bomb Oran, saying

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Speaker 16: that he would go after infrastructure and energy sites as

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Speaker 16: well if they do not reopen the Strait of hermus

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Speaker 16: by that eight pm deadline tomorrow. So what we're learning

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Speaker 16: is really the countries who we know have been crucial

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Speaker 16: negotiators throughout this entire process, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, they are

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Speaker 16: among those who have been pounding out a forty five

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Speaker 16: day seasfire to reopen the Strait of Hermose and again

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Speaker 16: try to buy some time before we could see the

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Speaker 16: United States military really escalate their attacks on these different

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Speaker 16: infrastructure sites. Now, the plan we're told was send to

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Speaker 16: the US and Iran late Sunday and is viewsed as

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Speaker 16: a last ditch effort to try and see if they

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Speaker 16: could find an off ram to this war again, even

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Speaker 16: if it is only temporary. Now we have also heard

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Speaker 16: from the Iranians say that they said that they reject

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Speaker 16: outright this idea of a temporary seasfire. But of course,

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Speaker 16: throughout this entire process, there's a lot we've been hearing publicly,

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Speaker 16: not only from the Iranians, but also from the Trump administration.

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Speaker 16: While things are happening, of course privalate behind the scenes.

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Speaker 16: I will say we did hear from a White House official.

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Speaker 16: They did confirm that this potential forty five day ceasefire

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Speaker 16: is just one they said of many options that the

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Speaker 16: White House is considering as they look ahead to how

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Speaker 16: they want to proceed. But you know, based on this

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Speaker 16: deadline that the President has set for tomorrow, I.

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Speaker 17: Think we read the headlines, you know, when President Trunk

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Speaker 17: took action to take on Iran. You know, for fifty

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Speaker 17: years presidents have talked about doing this, and he's the

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Speaker 17: first one to do it and face the scrutiny of

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Speaker 17: instant gratification. Everyone wants to know, is it two weeks,

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Speaker 17: is it three weeks? You know, give us a timeline.

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Speaker 17: But he understood that it was going to take risk,

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Speaker 17: and it was going to take some short term hardships

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Speaker 17: for a longer term gain for our country, for my

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Speaker 17: three voice future certainly. So I think this just shows

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Speaker 17: that freedom is not free, and things have to be

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Speaker 17: fought for and earned. And we have the best and

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Speaker 17: the brightest in this country that are prepared. You think

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Speaker 17: of those going in to rescue these pilots, they're trained,

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Speaker 17: highly trained, the most trained people in the world to

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Speaker 17: take this on. So my thoughts and prayers are with them,

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Speaker 17: and this is the greatest country in the world. But

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Speaker 17: it doesn't come without a cost.

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Speaker 8: But so far has any American military action ever wrecked

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Speaker 8: up so many costs for so few games.

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Speaker 1: Okay, welcome. Like I said, Easter Monday, sixth April, you're

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Speaker 1: of a lord. Twenty twenty six, We're going to the

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Speaker 1: White House at one o'clock, Real America's Voice. We're going

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Speaker 1: to cover that, do some pregame analysis. The Israeli paper

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Speaker 1: Heritz is just reporting now up on zero Hedge that

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Speaker 1: the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard is not prepared to

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Speaker 1: agree to any concessions as part of a deal to

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Speaker 1: end the war. So, like I've said before, we're in it.

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Speaker 1: And Trump threw down pretty hard yesterday ticking time bomb

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Speaker 1: eight pm I think eastern daylight time Tuesday night is

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Speaker 1: the deadline he's given him. We're going to get into

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Speaker 1: all of it, the economics of it, the geopolitics of it,

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Speaker 1: the national security. An incredible and incredible, incredible joint operation

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Speaker 1: yesterday to retrieve the weapons officer on the F fifteen,

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Speaker 1: just incredible. Of course, people were asking, was that really

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Speaker 1: just a cover to go after the nuclear dust You

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Speaker 1: get all of that this morning, Eric Bowing, Sam Fattis,

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Speaker 1: treat a parsi and more a cast of thousands here

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Speaker 1: in the warm short break.

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Speaker 2: Back in the Ken Riley.

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Speaker 6: Use your host, Stephen k Ba.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The the the President, would you say, was a combination

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Speaker 1: of patent about Rommel and the general in charge of

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Speaker 1: the hunting first Airborne at best own his response to

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Speaker 1: the Germans. He was given it to him with both barrels.

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Speaker 1: But Sam Fattus, let me start with you. I got

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Speaker 1: Eric up here a lot to talk about on the

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Speaker 1: on the straight of her moves and the convergence of

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Speaker 1: geopolitics and economics. There's all these rumors going around, of

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Speaker 1: course on the internet about yesterday's really a forty eight

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Speaker 1: hour magnificent evolutionists who call in the military to retrieve

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Speaker 1: the weapons officer from the downed F fifteen and of

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Speaker 1: cors a lot, Peter and oh this is just a

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Speaker 1: cover on a failed mission to go get the nuclear powder.

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Speaker 1: Your sense of things, What I think is striking to

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Speaker 1: people and even least a part of the conspiracy theory

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Speaker 1: is it was a pretty big firefight and there were

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Speaker 1: a lot of Seal Team six and Seal Team six

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Speaker 1: are kind of the assassins, right, these guys go in

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Speaker 1: as all Seal teams are incredible, as all of our

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Speaker 1: Special Forces, Delta Force, you know, the Green Berets, Rangers,

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Speaker 1: all of it, Force recon for the Marines, the special

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Speaker 1: unit the Air Force has. But send in Sealed Team

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Speaker 1: six and have their fight. And we still don't know

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Speaker 1: if they're casheries from that or not, but I did.

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Speaker 1: I believe we lost two C one thirties. And then

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Speaker 1: this morning that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard told President Trump

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Speaker 1: no deals, right, nothing, We're not given We're not giving

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Speaker 1: up in anything now. That could change in thirty minutes,

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Speaker 1: but at least that's what the Israeli papers are reporting.

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Speaker 1: Your thoughts on that, Sam Fadus.

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Speaker 18: Right, Well, first, obviously, all credit where credit is due

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Speaker 18: to the amazing folks who pulled off this op, and

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Speaker 18: we got the weapons officer out alive, and as far

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Speaker 18: as I know, we did not take any fatalities, although

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Speaker 18: I do believe they were wounded. Okay, fantastic, best military

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Speaker 18: in the world, and we should thank God for that.

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Speaker 18: We should also take stock of what happened and what

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Speaker 18: it took to pull off this op. We had to

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Speaker 18: send in. You, this is not a chopper with a

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Speaker 18: handful of guys that hopped off the side and picked

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Speaker 18: up a guy. This was a major operation in a

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Speaker 18: major firefight, and we ended up having to blow up

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Speaker 18: two see one thirty's on the ground I think a

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Speaker 18: little bird helicopter as well. And then there were multiple

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Speaker 18: other aircraft hit during the course of the overall operation.

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Speaker 18: So you know, some takeaways to come off the top

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Speaker 18: of my We were told these guys were getting ready

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Speaker 18: to quit and in about three days of bombing it

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Speaker 18: would all be over. That is not what we saw

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Speaker 18: on the ground in Iran. We saw guys prepared to

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Speaker 18: throw down. That does not mean we can't beat them,

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Speaker 18: just means you better stop thinking that they're going to fold.

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Speaker 18: We were told their communications were gone, it can't communicate anymore. Well,

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Speaker 18: we saw them in real time coordinate a very large

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Speaker 18: operation to get this weapons officer and confront our guys,

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Speaker 18: so obviously they can communicate and they are.

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Speaker 7: Still an effective force.

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Speaker 18: We were also told by the way that their air

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Speaker 18: defenses are no longer are non existent. Well, there's F

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Speaker 18: fifteen that went down, tells you that that is that

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Speaker 18: is not true. I mean we have destroyed some types

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Speaker 18: of air defenses they have have in place now, very asymmetric,

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Speaker 18: non conventional air defenses, like they literally have loitering munitions,

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Speaker 18: drones that just lover.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the A tent, the A ten also down by

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Speaker 1: by the straight itself. Also, I think a couple of

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Speaker 1: helicopters got hit. I don't think anything went down, But

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Speaker 1: I want to go back to something you said from

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Speaker 1: the beginning that they've got an operational plan because they

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Speaker 1: they had a contingency this day was coming. So it's

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Speaker 1: not like Sencom Central Command. They dispersed. Where this incredible

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Speaker 1: rescue mission took place is in a pretty It's not

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Speaker 1: a suburb of Tehran.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 1: It's also not near one of their major where they

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Speaker 1: dispersed defense capabilities. Right, It's a fairly remote part down close,

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Speaker 1: you know, pretty close to Iraq. So your theory is

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Speaker 1: not just simply a Tehran and these other four or

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Speaker 1: five big military installations they've got, But it looks like

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Speaker 1: they they dispersed all over correct.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 18: Look, they spent twenty years watching the way we fight

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Speaker 18: in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere.

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Speaker 7: There are smart boys and girls.

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Speaker 18: They developed a plan, knowing precisely how we wage war,

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Speaker 18: and knowing that it would begin with decapitation, taking out

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Speaker 18: major sites, essentially trying to destroy command and control. Their

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Speaker 18: response to that was to create thirty one separate commands,

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Speaker 18: autonomous commands all around the country, and those pieces continue

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Speaker 18: to fight on their own and at each and each

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Speaker 18: one of those commands has access to everything you need

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Speaker 18: to continue to fight, including the external the military, plus

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Speaker 18: the bus sias, the internal security guys, the thugs that

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Speaker 18: beat people up in the street, they are all They

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Speaker 18: understood what was coming. They have watched it for twenty years,

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Speaker 18: and they prepared for it. So that's where we are now.

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Speaker 18: The theory that you were going to hit them real

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Speaker 18: hard in Tehran and they would collapse was never viable.

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Speaker 18: It didn't happen, it hasn't happened, it's not gonna happen.

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Speaker 18: So okay, I'm not That does not me saying we lose.

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Speaker 18: It's just saying you need to accept that, face reality

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Speaker 18: and adapt. Our strategy has to be modified. We can't

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Speaker 18: keep just thinking we'll repeat the same thing we've done

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Speaker 18: and get a different result.

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Speaker 1: Also, this fantasy, at least a fantasy up till now

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Speaker 1: that there's gonna be some massive uprising in the streets.

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Speaker 1: And I think President Trump said, hey, we sent some weapons,

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Speaker 1: because this gets down to are these people armed? Can

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Speaker 1: they fight back against the internal security? And we send

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Speaker 1: them to the crews. I think he said it looks

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Speaker 1: like the Kurds kept them, which if I'm a Kurd's

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Speaker 1: probably not a bad probably not a bad alternative. The

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Speaker 1: area's going to send this weapons. You know, maybe maybe

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Speaker 1: we get them there and maybe we just keep them

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Speaker 1: because we're always being double dealt by everybody, so let's

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Speaker 1: just hunker down. This goes back to my point. We

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Speaker 1: don't have any friends in this region none the world.

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Speaker 1: America is the greatest. Ally ain't a friend. The Saudi's

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Speaker 1: are not a friend, MBZ. You know who glazes President

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Speaker 1: Trump all the time. He's not a friend. They're all

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Speaker 1: looking out for themselves and given what a cockpit that

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Speaker 1: place is, right, maybe it's maybe it's to their benefit

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Speaker 1: to do that. But don't think you've got any friends

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Speaker 1: over there. You may have alliances of convenience when it

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Speaker 1: suits them. Hang on for a second, Sam, when we

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Speaker 1: get back to you in a second. All this I

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Speaker 1: want to go to the to the economics of it, Eric,

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Speaker 1: is it appropriate to say that even with the explosion

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Speaker 1: of prices kind of over the weekend or for the

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Speaker 1: last trades, that people are kind of on tenter hooks

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Speaker 1: now waiting for what President Trump says at one o'clock

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Speaker 1: and then this deadline which has been pushed I think

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Speaker 1: theoretically to eight pm Eastern daylight time on Tuesday.

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Speaker 19: Yeah, he added twenty hours they're supposed to end this evening.

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Speaker 19: He pushed it to Tuesday. So very interesting phenomena have anywhere.

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Speaker 19: But first of all, regarding what Sam was just talking about, Guys,

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Speaker 19: we've been talking about exactly what's happening right now for the.

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Speaker 7: Past four weeks.

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Speaker 19: So we said, in fact, Steve I sent the video

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Speaker 19: of us talking in this exact idea into Hankseth and

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Speaker 19: the Susie Wilds that you need to bomb the literal

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Speaker 19: daylights out of these folks. You need to take out

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Speaker 19: their media, their infrastructure, their roads, their bridges. Maybe you

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Speaker 19: know clearly there will be civilian deaths in it, but

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Speaker 19: that's what you need to do to get the I

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Speaker 19: ergyc back to the bargaining table hat in hand, and

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Speaker 19: then you can work out some negotiations. It feels like

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Speaker 19: Trump is melding together this kind of the art of

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Speaker 19: war and standpoints out with the art of the deal,

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Speaker 19: which he is all about. And I just have this

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Speaker 19: hope and suspicion that he's going to get what he wants.

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Speaker 19: The other side of that is, I also know Trump,

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Speaker 19: as you do as well, that he's not going to

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Speaker 19: be I guess disrespected on a global stage with the

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Speaker 19: IRGC telling him to go take a hike, with all

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Speaker 19: his attempts on negotiations, and I believe he will unleash

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Speaker 19: hell on them. And I think that's what everyone's waiting for.

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Speaker 19: Will this be the you know, will we get another

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Speaker 19: forty five day pause, will we get a ceasefire? Will

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Speaker 19: we get hell unleashed on on Iran? Which would be

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Speaker 19: the oil markets? And so everything is kind of in

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Speaker 19: limbo right now, very nervously trading a very tight range.

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Speaker 19: Oil one hundred and twelve dollars a barrow, gasolines up

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Speaker 19: to four dollars and twelve cents nationally. A gallon Brent

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Speaker 19: is trading one hundred and thirty dollars a barrow right now.

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Speaker 3: It could be a lot higher.

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Speaker 19: If we do do unleash Hell's bombing back to the

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Speaker 19: Stone Ages, you'll see probably a one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 19: dollars barrel of US of WTI in one hundred and

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Speaker 19: eighty two hundred dollars barrel of Brent so and that

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Speaker 19: would be very, very negative to the stock market. The

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Speaker 19: other thing that we you and I chatted about Steve

440
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 19: offline was this idea that you know, this is even

441
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 19: if all things ended right now, there's an international u

442
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 19: N I guess it was u N Studies saying even

443
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 19: if the straight were opened to day and ceasefire declared, today,

444
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 19: we're looking at We're looking at months forward of painted

445
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 19: the pump, higher inflation, and maybe there's a possibility of

446
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 19: sending the world into a global recession, which should be

447
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 19: bad for everyone us too.

448
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 3: But again there's there's an off ramp.

449
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 19: Trump may be thinking about various options, but he's got

450
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 19: to portray that the only option to him left is

451
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 19: to bomb the crap out of Iran, which I don't

452
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 19: think is a bad idea. I think letting them know

453
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 19: that he's willing to go, and he's ready to go,

454
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 19: that's what he's good at.

455
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 3: And then these these they've clearly seen that.

456
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 20: Then you're saying that he's on the time when he goes,

457
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 20: You're you're saying he's caught an escalatory trap that he

458
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 20: actually has to escalate.

459
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 1: Now, is that what you're saying, because these guys say,

460
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 1: nothing over the weekend has shown hang on, Nothing over

461
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: the weekend has shown they're even prepared to negotiate with

462
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,479
Speaker 1: people or talk to people directly, something that JD's been

463
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: up all night and trying to communicate with some guy.

464
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: But the head the guys came back today and said,

465
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 1: we're not giving up on anything, right, We're not going

466
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: to give one inch, one concession. I think they're coming

467
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 1: back with their own fifteen point plan. I tell you what,

468
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: Eric came over for one second, Sam fattis Eric bowling

469
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: to kick off Easter Monday. Really an incredible heroic and

470
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 1: it tells you about the really the valor of our

471
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,639
Speaker 1: because the equipment's incredible, the communication is incredible. When it

472
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 1: gets down to it, it's the valor and savvy and

473
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 1: toughness and grit of our troops. The pilot himself climbed

474
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: up to seven thousand feet injured. Just incredible, incredible, weekend,

475
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 1: but we're now down into it. President at one o'clock

476
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: from the White House, short break back in the.

477
00:26:53,600 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 6: Moment, use your host, Stephen.

478
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 20: K ba.

479
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 1: If Sam, let me get to what Eric said. Do

480
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 1: you think President Trump right now is trapped and what

481
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: we call the escalatory trap, that he's got to go

482
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: up to the he's got to go up to the

483
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: escorts or particularly if what heretz and some of the

484
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 1: Israeli media is reporting that the Iranian Guard because people

485
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 1: don't really know who speaks for who, what faction, who's

486
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: in charge. I mean, one of the problems we've got.

487
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 1: You've got the Pakistanis and the Egyptian of the Turks,

488
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: everybody's trying to organize the Saudi's. You know, you've got

489
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: a couple of guys here, a couple of guys there.

490
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: But at least and he reads some pretty good paper.

491
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 1: They're saying. The Revolutionary Guard is saying, hey, here's what

492
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 1: you think about your fifteen points. There's no deal, there's

493
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: no ceasefire. We don't need a meeting. We're going to

494
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: send you over our fifteen stand by. It sounds a

495
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: little bit they almost sound like they are taking the

496
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:07,199
Speaker 1: style a President Trump and using against President Trump.

497
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 18: Sir, Yeah, well I think we are potentially that's precisely

498
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 18: where we are. I mean, this is what I mean

499
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:20,959
Speaker 18: by we tried something based on an idea we had

500
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 18: of how what would happen, that they would fold, and

501
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 18: now since that didn't work, it appears our current is

502
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,360
Speaker 18: our plan is let's just do more of that without

503
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 18: without reevaluating, without without stopping and thinking about what's really

504
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 18: happening here. And I as I keep saying, I mean,

505
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 18: we're in this war, so we got to win this war.

506
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 18: We don't ever rewind button. We can't go back and

507
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 18: revisit that decision. We cannot walk away and have been

508
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 18: defeated by the Islamic Republic of Iran. But we do

509
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 18: need to think about why is it not working? And

510
00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 18: let's let's change that. So, oh, if we're going to

511
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 18: bomb them, what are we going to bomb exactly? Given

512
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 18: that they have moved to a decentralized system, Because continuing

513
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 18: to think we're just going to bomb certain keynodes and

514
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 18: they will collapse is not enough. We also have to

515
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 18: anticipate as we backed them further and further.

516
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 7: Into a corner, what are they going to do.

517
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 18: Up until now, you and I have been talking about

518
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 18: how the Straits of Horror moves are the center of

519
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 18: gravity here, by which we really mean oil and gas

520
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 18: coming out of the Gulf Okay. But when you get

521
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 18: the Iranians in a corner and really out of options,

522
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 18: what happens when they decide to destroy the oil and

523
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 18: gas infrastructure of the Persian Gulf. So you're not looking

524
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 18: at reopening the straits, you're looking at nothing's coming out

525
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 18: of Kuwait and any other country in there.

526
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: One of the reasons, yeah, one of the reasons we

527
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: and we're going to spend more time this in the

528
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 1: next couple of days. One of the reasons we went

529
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 1: back in recent history and talked about the nineteen eighties

530
00:29:56,840 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: is as they've gone down on the command structure and

531
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: taking out the senior people, they're getting into mid level

532
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 1: and below. These are all people that came in as volunteers,

533
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 1: as first lieutenant, second lieutenants, noncommissioned officers, the nine year

534
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: old of twelve year old kids that gave them a

535
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: stick and said the iraqis over there, go charge. Like

536
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 1: in World War One in Korea, these are not We're

537
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 1: not getting as you go down the latter, you're not

538
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: getting to Jeffersonian Democrats are members are guys that went

539
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: through the Enlightenment. You're getting the harder. You're getting hardercore

540
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:37,719
Speaker 1: people who their entire life, their formation of them as

541
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: young men was in a brutal war. That was a

542
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 1: war that they had to win against at that time,

543
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: Sadam Hussein in the West, right, And so you're getting

544
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: people that know how to dig in. And these are

545
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: Persians to start with. The layer on top of it

546
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: this this radical theocracy, right, this martyr this whole philosophy

547
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 1: and religion based around martyrdom. These are you know, these

548
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 1: these are tough people formed in the crucible of an

549
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 1: apocalyptic war, which was I think there was a million

550
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 1: casualties over the eight years of that war. And you

551
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: think about in Vietnam the casualties. I think we had

552
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: fifty thousand killed obviously tens of thousands of more casualties

553
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 1: and millions on the Vietnamese side. This was and people

554
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 1: should remember. And this I told the Sunday Times, I said, look,

555
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 1: the military has had twelve thousand sorties. They're going to

556
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 1: I think the target right now is thirteen five or

557
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: fourteen thousand sorties before they say at least their initial

558
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 1: mission is accomplished. We've only had a couple of plane

559
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: shot down. That is pretty remarkable. But we're hitting these people,

560
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: and we hit them again last night. It's a relentless

561
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 1: hitting of the kind of defanging, declawing of their conventional

562
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 1: military apparatus. Sam, But these guys are totally asymmetric now,

563
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 1: and they're going to fight at asymmetric war. And these

564
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: appear to be people who would rather die than surrender

565
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: or particularly capitulate to the Great Satan. Sir.

566
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 18: Yeah, as I've said to you many times, I worked

567
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 18: against the Iraqis and the Iranians for many years. The

568
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 18: Iraqis were absolutely ruthless. The Iranians where every bit is ruthless,

569
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 18: but frankly a heck of a lot more organized in

570
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:32,239
Speaker 18: that sense, and smarter in the way they operated, and

571
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 18: more dangerous. They were the folks you really had to

572
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 18: watch yourself against. And you're used to the term asymmetric

573
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 18: is dead on, Steve. I mean, look, you know we're

574
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 18: worried about missile batteries and them shooting down planes the

575
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,479
Speaker 18: way we would. Okay, we should worry about that. But

576
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 18: the fact of the matter is they've moved now to

577
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 18: using these loitering munitions. And I'm not talking about things

578
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 18: that go up in the air and then hit a

579
00:32:56,400 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 18: tank on the ground. They're like sky mines, go up

580
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 18: and they hover thousands of feet in the air, passive

581
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 18: and they have passive infrared sensors. Then and when your

582
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 18: F fifteen Strike Eagle comes by, they impact it. They're

583
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 18: they're you know, it's not an area there. We're looking

584
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 18: for radar systems, we're looking for Sam's, we're looking for

585
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 18: all of this stuff, and they have relatively cheap munitions

586
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 18: hovering over key areas. This is back to the psychology,

587
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 18: at least to the Vietnam War. Right, We're using massive

588
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 18: conventional force and we're fighting an enemy that's fighting us

589
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 18: very unconventionally and asymmetrically.

590
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: Yeah. Hanger for in fact, that Bum to the Stone

591
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: Age came I think from Curtis Lamy in the Vietnam

592
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: or Hanger one second, TREDA where do we stand? Horitz's

593
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 1: is reporting that the Revolutionary Guard has responded to our

594
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 1: feelers through various sources of trying to you know, trying

595
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: to try to have a client down at least before

596
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 1: tomorrow evenings deadline, and they're telling us a no interest,

597
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: no deals. Will come back to you later with our

598
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 1: own fifteen point plan. Your thoughts.

599
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 21: I think the Iranians are open for negotiations, but they're

600
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 21: not going to agree to a ceasefire unless they get

601
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 21: what they want. Because the track record of Israel and

602
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,399
Speaker 21: the United States for the last two three years when

603
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 21: it comes to ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon has been

604
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 21: very clear. Those ceasefires are rather quickly violated and they're

605
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 21: used in order to be able to regroup, rearm, and

606
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 21: then relaunch attacks. So the Ranians are not going to

607
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 21: fall for that, and particularly if it's these kind of

608
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 21: phase ceasefires. First Iranians do everything up front, and then

609
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 21: in phase two or phase three, the US responds with

610
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 21: some concessions. Those are complete non starters, and I don't

611
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 21: think we should waste time on that because reality on

612
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 21: the ground is this is not the type of scenario

613
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 21: that exists before the war end, which the US had

614
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 21: a lot of leverage visa the Iran Now the Yvanians

615
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,720
Speaker 21: have a lot of leverage over the US as well.

616
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 21: That requires real compromises, and that's going to take some time.

617
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 21: But if you start off those negotiations with these kind

618
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 21: of low ball offers, you're just wasting time. Frankly, and

619
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 21: right now, time is not on Trump's side. If I

620
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 21: were him, I we moved much faster towards real negotiations

621
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 21: that did not require the Eyvonians to give up everything

622
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 21: up front and then the US taking measures in phase two,

623
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 21: because those are just non starters. It's not going to work.

624
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: Tree to help me out here and help the audience

625
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 1: out when you say real negotiations, President Trump, this is

626
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 1: one of the things that drove in crazy and you

627
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,240
Speaker 1: and I talked about. This drove and creates the beginning

628
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 1: that the Rngeans will be in one room, you know,

629
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: Witkough and Cushion in another room. You have either someone

630
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: from Oman or some intermediary pass and notes back and forth.

631
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 1: Who is he really supposed to negotiate with? If you

632
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,320
Speaker 1: had a recommendation right now, you get the Pakistani's working

633
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,919
Speaker 1: one thing, Alday's working another, the Turks working another. You've

634
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 1: got guys coming up as spokesman. I mean, President Trump

635
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 1: wants to make a deal and talk to somebody and

636
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 1: JD has been up all night. The media is telling

637
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 1: us talking to somebody who is the President of the

638
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 1: United States supposed to interact with that not only can

639
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 1: deliver a deal or have a meaningful conversation about what

640
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 1: you just talked about, but also if they reached a deal,

641
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: can actually execute it inside of Iran, Sir.

642
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 21: So say earlier on, I think this was a very

643
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 21: valid concern that the methodology of the negotiations were highly problematic,

644
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 21: and that was overwhelmingly default of the audience in which

645
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 21: they originally only had these meetings in which notes were

646
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 21: passed from one room to another through the Amani's. The

647
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 21: talks in Geneva they are you know, Kushner and whit

648
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 21: Cough sat in the room with Iranian negotiators and they

649
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:57,280
Speaker 21: were actually direct negotiations with us. So the methodology had improved,

650
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 21: and it should have been done so from the very outset.

651
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 21: I think was a huge mistake by the Ivanians to

652
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 21: do it in the manner that they did at this point. However,

653
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,279
Speaker 21: I don't think the problem is in the methodology. The

654
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 21: problem is that the two sides are too far away

655
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 21: from each other on the substance of the issue, and

656
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 21: that both sides are driving rather maximalist positions, and particularly

657
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 21: Trump kind of still acting as if he can dictate

658
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 21: the outcome here. That is not the reality on the ground.

659
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 21: The Ivranias have the ability to squeeze the American economy

660
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 21: in a manner that they didn't have before this war

661
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 21: was started. And as a result, even though of course

662
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 21: the methodology needs to improve it et cetera, et cetera,

663
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 21: the real problem is in the substance here. Now, the

664
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,360
Speaker 21: US side can talk to the Vanians through the Pakistanis

665
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 21: and others. There's nothing wrong with those channels per se.

666
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 21: But if the starting point is essentially Yvon gives up

667
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 21: everything in terms of control of the strait of hormones,

668
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 21: and then in phase two the US reciprocates the track

669
00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 21: record of the last couple of years have made sure

670
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 21: that no country that has leverage will ever trust to

671
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:04,879
Speaker 21: you US to get to phase two or phase three,

672
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 21: and as a result, they won't even bother even contemplating

673
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 21: Phase one. That's the problem of having done it the

674
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 21: manner that these Ralis wanted to do it in gas

675
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 21: End Lebanon, It's just destroy that credibility and has put

676
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 21: us in a much much harder position.

677
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 1: I'm not saying this is reality, but I want to

678
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,399
Speaker 1: know the reality. As the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the

679
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 1: folks run in the country and particularly run the military,

680
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 1: look at it. Do they believe that they have the

681
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: initiative in this war right now and not the Americans.

682
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:38,760
Speaker 2: I think it's quite clear that that is their perception.

683
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 21: And again, whether that perception is entirely true or not,

684
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,399
Speaker 21: it could be a very different story. But I think

685
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 21: that they do believe that they have an escalatory dominance

686
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 21: here because, for instance, let's say that Trump activates his threat,

687
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,280
Speaker 21: and by the way, these radis are currently bombing power

688
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 21: grids and energy infrastructure on long before the deadline has

689
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 21: been met. Whether they're doing it right now in order

690
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 21: to sabotage any small prospect for the Varians agreeing to

691
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 21: some sort of a ceasefire, or if all of this

692
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 21: is once again another ruse in which diplomacy is not

693
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 21: serious from either side, we don't know yet. But thenetheless

694
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 21: they're doing it regardless of Trump's deadline. But let's say

695
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 21: that that goes forward, what the Iranians can then do,

696
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 21: and they've already shown the ability to do it, is

697
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 21: to take out the oil infrastructure in the region, not

698
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 21: just stopping ships from going through the strait of hormones.

699
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,240
Speaker 21: The reason why we have high oil prices right now

700
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 21: is not because oil is not being pumped out of

701
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 21: the ground. It's because the oil is stuck in the

702
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 21: Persian Gulf and it can't get through. But once the

703
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 21: straight opens, the oil will go through very quickly and

704
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 21: oil prices can come down very quickly. However, if Trump

705
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 21: activates his threat and goes after the oil infrastructure and

706
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 21: other power infrastructure in Iran, and the Iranians retaliate by

707
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 21: taking out the oil and gas infrastructure in the GCC state,

708
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 21: then we're not just talking about or getting stuck in

709
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 21: the Pursean Gulf. We're talking about oil and gas not

710
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 21: getting out of the ground. And that will then require

711
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 21: years of recuperation before he actually gets back to a

712
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,240
Speaker 21: normal state, and then all prices will not come down quickly.

713
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,919
Speaker 21: Rather they will stay high for a long period of time.

714
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 21: That will be devastating for the global economy and for

715
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 21: the United States, and that will destroy Trump's presidency. That's

716
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 21: why I think the Iranians feel confident that they have

717
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 21: an escalation dominance. Trump can do a lot of things

718
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 21: in terms of blowing things up, but strategically the Iranians

719
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 21: can do a lot to destroy his presidency.

720
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,479
Speaker 1: Treat I know youet about. Just hang over for a second.

721
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 1: I get a couple more questions on side. Sam Fat

722
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 1: is gonna stick with us? Eric, We're gonna get back

723
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 1: to Eric Bowling on all things geoeconomics. Short break for.

724
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 22: The world of the Hot kom We will buy the

725
00:40:53,719 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 22: lock God, we will joice for the molistically.

726
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 6: Confuse your host, Stephen came back.

727
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: A treat it and thank you for coming on the

728
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: show over the last what thirty eight forty days of

729
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 1: this war and even beforehand and helping us think this through.

730
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 1: What do you think to be helpful to try to

731
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 1: get this thing sorted right? What do you think would

732
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,359
Speaker 1: be what do you would be helpful from President Trump

733
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 1: to day at one o'clock and then from the Persians.

734
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 1: How do you anticipate if if we're to get anywhere

735
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: or just keep slugging it out? Because President Trump's not

736
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 1: a you know, he's a guy who says, hey, look,

737
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 1: if this is what you want to do, We'll to

738
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 1: slug it out. What are your thoughts on that.

739
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 21: Well, let's first better understand what's slugging it out with me.

740
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 21: You know, Trump went in here with some clear objectives.

741
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 21: It didn't work out because it was based on a

742
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 21: false understanding of the reality on the ground that.

743
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 2: Had been sold to him by these Raelis.

744
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 21: But at this point, when you listen carefully to what

745
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 21: he's saying, it appears that as if our options here

746
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 21: have been reduced to the Israeli strategy of mowing the lawn,

747
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 21: which these Radis use against Lebanon, against the Pastinians, which

748
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 21: is every six months to two years, they just go

749
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 21: back to bombing them just to make sure that they

750
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 21: can never actually end up achieving anything that could pose

751
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 21: a challenge to Israel. So it's not a solution, it's

752
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 21: just a constant state of warfare. And this is how

753
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 21: the Israelis have pursued their immediate security in the region,

754
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 21: because they have kind of given up or not been

755
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 21: interested in actually achieving peace. So they're in this endless

756
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 21: state of warfare. And Trump has said that he's just

757
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 21: going to take out as much as possible, bomb them

758
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 21: back to the Stone Age and add it to that,

759
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 21: and then the next president may have to go back

760
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,240
Speaker 21: and bomb them again in a couple of years.

761
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 2: That means that we would end up in a permanent

762
00:42:58,000 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 2: state of war with Iran.

763
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 21: Now that may very well be Israel's preference, I think

764
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:06,320
Speaker 21: it is, but this would be devastating for the United States.

765
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 21: We should not be here. Trump himself is the person who,

766
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 21: more than any other politician, has railed against these endless wars,

767
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 21: and this would be by definition and endless wars. So

768
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 21: I think we have to really recognize that if we

769
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 21: agree to that, then we've completely fallen into the trap

770
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 21: of doing something that Trump campaigned on not doing, an

771
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 21: ending Actually, So what can be done at this point?

772
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 21: I think, first of all, there has to be an

773
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 21: effort to fully end the war, not ceasefire. We don't

774
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 21: have any credibility with ceasefires any longer because of what

775
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 21: has happened in Gaza and Lebanon for the last two

776
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,240
Speaker 21: to three years. So if we want to have any

777
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 21: serious talks, it has to be about ending the war altogether.

778
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 21: Three weeks ago, I thought it would be possible that

779
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 21: if we offered sanctions relief, making sure that Vanni and

780
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 21: all got back on to the market, which would be

781
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 21: good for the US because it would push down all prices.

782
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 21: But if we could add something to that, which is

783
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:00,919
Speaker 21: to make sure that Yvanni is at least sell half

784
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 21: of that oil and US dollars instead of Chinese currency,

785
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 21: it actually could be a win for US in the

786
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 21: Iranians would agree to it open up the strips. At

787
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:10,719
Speaker 21: this point, I think it's become much harder because now

788
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 21: increasingly I'm seeing messages from the Iranian side, or signals

789
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 21: from the Iranian side, that they're not looking at using

790
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 21: the Strait of Hormos as a way of ending the war.

791
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 21: They're looking at it as a way of managing the

792
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 21: post war era, in which they're going to use the

793
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 21: control of the straits not to close it, but to

794
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 21: control who comes in and who comes out, pays transit fees,

795
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 21: and to use that to re establish economic relations with

796
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 21: countries that over the last ten to fifteen years have

797
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 21: more or less ceased to have any economic relations with

798
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 21: Yvonne as a result of US sanctions. If that is

799
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 21: a direction they're going, this is going to become much

800
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 21: much harder. But when Trump says, hey, I don't care

801
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 21: about the Straits, We're not getting any energy out of

802
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 21: that region.

803
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 2: It's all going to Asia, et cetera.

804
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 21: It kind of, I think has led to the Iranians

805
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:01,920
Speaker 21: believing that they can sue their strategy. Trump will just

806
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 21: give up on this trait of hormoes, they will reopen it,

807
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 21: all will flow again, but they will be in control

808
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 21: of the Strait as a new geopolitical feature in the region.

809
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 21: I don't know if that's going to shift, but that

810
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 21: is where they seem to be right now. And I

811
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 21: think if we're very honest, we will see that the

812
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 21: US's a negotiating position has gradually degraded during these last

813
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 21: thirty five or so days, and there's nothing to point

814
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:30,759
Speaker 21: to that really suggests that it could be shift in

815
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 21: a positive direction with some sort of a silver bullet.

816
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 21: And my fear then is that if we wait too long,

817
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 21: we will be an increasingly negative negotiating position visa the

818
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 21: the Iranians. So I would move fast, and now we'll

819
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 21: move fast. Just end the war, not a ceasefire, offer

820
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 21: some sort of a sanctions relief, but in return request

821
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,439
Speaker 21: things from the Yranians that actually really matter to the US,

822
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 21: which is, for instance, making sure that the petro dollar

823
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 21: is not on.

824
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 2: The mind.

825
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 1: Tredo where the people go to get your observations and analysis,

826
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:04,440
Speaker 1: very very enlightening.

827
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 21: Did you go to my Twitter which is t Parsy,

828
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 21: or go to the Quincy Institute's website which is quincyiinst

829
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 21: dot org, or my self stack which is Treta Parsy.

830
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 1: Treetah, thank you so much. I appreciate, thank you so much,

831
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: and thank you brother. We're going to keep We're going

832
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 1: to go to the White House presidence coming out for

833
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:32,760
Speaker 1: the Easter egg event they put on for the children.

834
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 1: But he's talking about it ron, let's go right to it.

835
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:37,399
Speaker 10: Voice.

836
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 12: I think we're going to send him to the men.

837
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 5: We'll get a little commissioned, make a lot of money

838
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 5: because that makes it sick.

839
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 7: Thank you very much.

840
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 5: Not the first time we've heard of it. So today

841
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,879
Speaker 5: is a very special day. It's a day where we

842
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:58,439
Speaker 5: celebrate Jesus. It's a day where we celebrate religion. And

843
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,240
Speaker 5: it's an honor to be the president of the United States.

844
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 5: Our country is doing so well like it has never

845
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 5: done before.

846
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 12: You'll see that very shortly. And things that we've done

847
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:09,800
Speaker 12: have not been done before.

848
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 5: We've broken every record on the stock market, we broken

849
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 5: every record in our military. And what about the rescue

850
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 5: that took place yesterday?

851
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:19,360
Speaker 9: What about.

852
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 5: And something that you rarely say? You know, we're giving

853
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 5: me a briefing about that. And they said, normally when

854
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 5: you're in very hostile territory, and I don't think it

855
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:34,720
Speaker 5: gets much more hostile than are und they're capable fighters,

856
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 5: they are very tough people, and there are others like that.

857
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 5: You don't mind when the enemy is weak, but that

858
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 5: enemy is strong, not so strong like they were about

859
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:45,399
Speaker 5: a month ago. I can tell you in fact, right

860
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 5: now they're not too strong at all in my opinion.

861
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 5: But we're soon going to find out, aren't we. But

862
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 5: when a thing like that happens, we're pilot shot down.

863
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 5: In most instances, you're really not able to go in

864
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 5: because you'll go in with two hundred people and lots

865
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:05,360
Speaker 5: of jet fighters and helicopters, and you really don't have

866
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 5: a chance that you get shot down. You lose two

867
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:10,919
Speaker 5: hundred in order to pick up one. It's a horrible thing,

868
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 5: but it's very rare that you can do it. And

869
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 5: what we did yesterday is we picked up not one,

870
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 5: we picked up two. We keeped the first one quiet,

871
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:20,760
Speaker 5: and we were able to keep it quiet for about

872
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 5: a day, which made it a lot better. But those

873
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 5: two pilots were incredible.

874
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 12: Brave, and we thank them.

875
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 3: And we're going to be.

876
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 5: Having a news conference today at one o'clock at the

877
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:31,879
Speaker 5: Oval Office and we.

878
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 12: Look forward to it.

879
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 5: But I just want to say, we have a great military,

880
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 5: with the greatest military and most powerful military anyplace in

881
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 5: the world. You saw what happened with Venezuela, and it's

882
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 5: an honor. I built it on my first term and

883
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 5: I didn't know I was going to be using it

884
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 5: this much in my second term, but it's my honor.

885
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 5: And the greatest people on earth are warriors, are the

886
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 5: greatest fighters on earth, and they very much appreciate you and.

887
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 7: Love you, and that's why they do it.

888
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 5: So this is all about today, I must tell you.

889
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 5: I came out and I expected we were going to

890
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 5: be talking about farmers, and we love our farmers. We

891
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 5: were going to talk about so many different products.

892
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:13,919
Speaker 12: But you know what they want to talk about, sir,

893
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 12: This is about eggs.

894
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 5: Eggs, because we have the egg farmers of the entire

895
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 5: country here and they are unbelievable.

896
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 12: And if you remember when.

897
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 5: I first got elected, my first news conference with the

898
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 5: fake news.

899
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 12: A lot of fake news here today. But I had

900
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 12: a news conference and the first question, what are you

901
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 12: going to do about eggs? Sir? I said, what you

902
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 12: what's wrong with eggs?

903
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 5: I just got there, second day in office at a

904
00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 5: news conference.

905
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:44,319
Speaker 12: And they were screaming at me. What am I going

906
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 12: to do about eggs?

907
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 5: And I said, well, it's like, tell me what's wrong

908
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 5: with eggs? The price was so high, it was four

909
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 5: times higher than it was a year before.

910
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 12: I said, well that sounds like a problem. Let me

911
00:49:57,760 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 12: think about it.

912
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 5: And Brooke Rollins are Secretary of Agriculture.

913
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 12: She got involved. We all got involved. They didn't want me,

914
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 12: as you know, just last year. It so hard to believe.

915
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 5: They didn't want me to order eggs for the Easter

916
00:50:12,120 --> 00:50:13,840
Speaker 5: egg roll, the Easter egg.

917
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 12: Hunt that we have here every year. They wanted me

918
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 12: to use plastic. I said, I'm not using plastic. We'll

919
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:20,240
Speaker 12: get it solved.

920
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 5: And within a short period of time, eggs came down.

921
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 5: They came down forty fifty percent. And by the time

922
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 5: we got there, we had so many eggs we didn't

923
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 5: know what to do with them. And today we have

924
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 5: more than forty thousand eggs applied by all of the

925
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 5: great egg farmers that are with us. So it's eggs

926
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 5: is a big thing, and it was a big thing

927
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 5: to our great first lady, who's here someplace.

928
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 12: Let's see. I think this is our first lady. What

929
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,359
Speaker 12: do you think of our first lady? She's a movie star.

930
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 12: I don't know do we call a first lady or

931
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:52,840
Speaker 12: a movie star? She has the biggest movie. Can you

932
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:56,719
Speaker 12: believe this? And she deserves it. Would you like to

933
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,280
Speaker 12: say a couple of words, your friends.

934
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 23: Happy Easter Monday. I hope you enjoyed this beautiful day.

935
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 23: We are celebrating a very special Easter egg row this

936
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 23: year because it's two hundred and fifty birthday of this

937
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 23: beautiful nation. Enjoy it and I hope you have a

938
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 23: wonderful day.

939
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 6: Thanks, Thank you, Honnie.

940
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 5: And she worked very hard with her staff and the

941
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 5: staff and the White House on really just making it nice.

942
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:33,719
Speaker 5: This is the nicest I've ever seen is So this

943
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:38,280
Speaker 5: is my fifth and I will say that it gets

944
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:41,160
Speaker 5: better every time, right, it gets better every time. You

945
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 5: notice the fencing, it's all brand new. I said, you know,

946
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 5: we could have bought used fencing and saved a lot

947
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 5: of money. They said, this is for the this is

948
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 5: for Easter, and this is for our egg farmers.

949
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 12: And we're going to get new fencing.

950
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 5: Everything's new, and everything's beautiful, and the White House never

951
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 5: looked better and our country never looked better. So I

952
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 5: just want to thank everybody. It's been a special period

953
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 5: of time. One year ago a little bit more, our

954
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 5: country was dead. We had a dead country. We had

955
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 5: an administration that didn't know what the hell they were doing.

956
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:15,959
Speaker 5: Today we have the hottest country anywhere in the world.

957
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 5: We're respected by everybody, and that's the way we're going

958
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 5: to keep it.

959
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:21,000
Speaker 12: That's the way we're going to keep it.

960
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:25,279
Speaker 5: So again, I want to thank all of the associations

961
00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 5: and the egg farmers and all of the people that

962
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 5: are here. And we think we could have fifty thousand

963
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 5: people coming all day long.

964
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 12: It's open and.

965
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:36,520
Speaker 5: They expect between thirty and fifty thousand people, so that's great.

966
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,320
Speaker 5: And most importantly, I want to just say Happy Easter,

967
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 5: and God bless America. We have the greatest country on earth.

968
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 5: God bless you all. You are very very special people.

969
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:50,440
Speaker 5: Thank you, everybody, have a good time.

970
00:52:55,600 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 1: The President Easter Parade right there can we pick up

971
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 1: the music. They're going to go the egg roll, real

972
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:09,359
Speaker 1: America's voice. We're gonna split the stream, as we call it.

973
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 1: You're gonna be a watch that because it's always a

974
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:17,479
Speaker 1: fun event, historic event. President Trump and the First Lady

975
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 1: really get into this and do it right. There are

976
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 1: thousands of people that work in including many of the

977
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:24,839
Speaker 1: associates of the War Room, having a good time this

978
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:28,759
Speaker 1: morning with their children, as it should be. We're going

979
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 1: to go back to the war and we're going to

980
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:36,839
Speaker 1: leave the White House with enjoying Easter Monday traditional Easter

981
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 1: egg roll, and of course the scream will be there.

982
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:45,960
Speaker 1: Sam faddis a treat to Parsi and what the President

983
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 1: just said one o'clock today, folks, you do not want

984
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 1: to miss this. Now, the President says back in the

985
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:54,799
Speaker 1: Oval Office. I believe because of the demand of so

986
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:57,839
Speaker 1: much media that once so tend I think they put

987
00:53:57,880 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: it into the press briefing room. I would not be

988
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:02,320
Speaker 1: surprise they moved it to the East Room. My understanding

989
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:06,239
Speaker 1: is there's overwhelming response by the media to want to

990
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 1: be there because it looks like the Revolutionary guards said

991
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:13,399
Speaker 1: right now, they're not interested in a deal what did

992
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 1: you think about that? And then we get to Eric

993
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 1: Bowling about what Treatah said on the oil infrastructure. Sam Fattus,

994
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 1: your thoughts on Treta Parsy, Well, Steve.

995
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:27,879
Speaker 18: Look, here's something you don't hear me say every day.

996
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 18: I agree with Treta Parsi's assessment in the sense that

997
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,839
Speaker 18: he understands that the center of gravity of this war

998
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 18: is the world economy, the flow of oil of oil

999
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:45,760
Speaker 18: and gas, and then all the other really critical byproducts

1000
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 18: produced from them. And so we're talking about wanting the

1001
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 18: Iranians to negotiate. They don't. We want them to surrender,

1002
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:58,880
Speaker 18: We want them to concede. They don't think they need

1003
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:03,640
Speaker 18: to concede. They don't think they're losing, and they have

1004
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 18: a point because they have the world by the throat.

1005
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:12,359
Speaker 18: So we're fighting this conventional war against their military and

1006
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:15,239
Speaker 18: they've shut down the Straits of Hormuz, But then they

1007
00:55:15,280 --> 00:55:20,040
Speaker 18: are also poised to take out the oil and gas

1008
00:55:20,080 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 18: infrastructure in the Gulf, which means what when the war

1009
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 18: finally ends, minimum probably five years and nobody has any

1010
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 18: idea how many billions of dollars to reconstruct it, and

1011
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 18: in the meantime, we go into economic freefall worldwide.

1012
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:40,200
Speaker 7: So that's their leverage. We want them to quit.

1013
00:55:40,680 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 18: They don't think they're going to have to quit because

1014
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 18: they think they're winning right now. That's that's where we are,

1015
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,320
Speaker 18: whether we like it or not. We can pretend.

1016
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 1: Does that surprise you given your given your decade, you're

1017
00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:55,960
Speaker 1: twenty years of work in this file, but you're decade

1018
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 1: in country. Does that surprise you about the Persians.

1019
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:01,239
Speaker 7: Know nothing about this?

1020
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 18: Surprises me that and wouldn't surprise anybody who's worked against

1021
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:09,640
Speaker 18: them and understands that regime and the IRGC. If you're

1022
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 18: going to tee off against them and what is an

1023
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 18: existential fight from their side, the first thing that's going

1024
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 18: to come to mind is, Okay, well they're not going

1025
00:56:17,800 --> 00:56:20,400
Speaker 18: to collapse, and at some point, when we push them

1026
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:23,799
Speaker 18: hard enough, they're going to basically take a blowtorch to

1027
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 18: the world economy. So what's the plan for how we

1028
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 18: stop them from doing that? Before the first bomb falls?

1029
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 18: Before how they're going to send ten thousand drones headed

1030
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:38,240
Speaker 18: for the oil and gas fields in the Persian Gulf?

1031
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:41,959
Speaker 18: So how many? And you tell me we got ninety

1032
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:45,440
Speaker 18: percent interception rate? That's fabulous. Guys, that's still a thousand

1033
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 18: drones that are going to hit oil and gas infrastructure.

1034
00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 18: So how much damage is that going to be caught

1035
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:53,719
Speaker 18: caused and what's the impact and all of.

1036
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:54,960
Speaker 7: That should have happen.

1037
00:56:56,360 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 18: Obviously before anybody pulled a trigger, But apparently we were

1038
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 18: sold this bill of goods that we don't have to

1039
00:57:03,640 --> 00:57:06,799
Speaker 18: worry about that because in a few days it's all over,

1040
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 18: but the shouting and the troops will be home by

1041
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 18: Christmas and we win.

1042
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:13,800
Speaker 1: Well, well, I think they're going now for total state collapse.

1043
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 1: Put a pinnic because I want to one of the

1044
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 1: buried leads. A treat to is something that I did

1045
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 1: fail to mention this morning on news reports at America's

1046
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:25,240
Speaker 1: greatest allies have already started, have alreadys started going after

1047
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 1: the infrastructure. Just hangover for a second, Sam, I want

1048
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:31,400
Speaker 1: to go to Eric Bowling. Eric, given what Treatah said,

1049
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 1: does that change your assessment at all? Is that how

1050
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:36,760
Speaker 1: you see this playing out, at least from their perspective

1051
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:38,120
Speaker 1: of what they're trying to accomplish.

1052
00:57:38,840 --> 00:57:41,919
Speaker 19: So I'm what Treata said is something we've been talking

1053
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:47,320
Speaker 19: about a long time. That, Yeah, the whole Mideast loves

1054
00:57:47,320 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 19: one hundred dollars tred and fifty dollars barrel of oil here.

1055
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 19: I also think I'll add to what Treata said and

1056
00:57:52,960 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 19: what Sam said.

1057
00:57:53,800 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 3: Is that they do have the ability to go.

1058
00:57:56,120 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 19: After oil infrastructure in the region, but before they go down,

1059
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 19: these people are martyrs. They'll blow up their own infrastructure

1060
00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:04,840
Speaker 19: as well, and then they'll do whatever they can to

1061
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:07,720
Speaker 19: keep the straight clothes as long as they can before

1062
00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:12,440
Speaker 19: any sort of relent or you know, surrender to the

1063
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:13,400
Speaker 19: Trump administration.

1064
00:58:13,480 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 3: So they're going to fight it out. I'll also take the.

1065
00:58:16,160 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 19: Other side of both of those very astute, smart gentlemen

1066
00:58:19,840 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 19: say it's a fool's game to doubt Trump, even if

1067
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:26,840
Speaker 19: you don't see it coming. There's always something up his

1068
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:29,800
Speaker 19: sleeve that he has, and I just think he's got

1069
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:33,880
Speaker 19: some form of negotiation that he's ready to play. I've

1070
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 19: never seen a president that could stand at the at

1071
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 19: the you know, the south portico of the White House

1072
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 19: and talk about a rolls in easter bunnies while bombing

1073
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:46,440
Speaker 19: the spit out of the Ranian people. He's just got that,

1074
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:50,280
Speaker 19: and I just I hope that he realizes something that

1075
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:52,919
Speaker 19: I think they do. I hope they realize that, yeah,

1076
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 19: we're up. We're four to twelve a gallon right now, Steve,

1077
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 19: we're headed to five dollars a gallon. The faster it

1078
00:58:58,040 --> 00:59:01,440
Speaker 19: gets there and starts its way down better Because I

1079
00:59:01,520 --> 00:59:05,160
Speaker 19: don't this sounds ridiculous. On the short term, we could lose,

1080
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 19: aggressively lose the midterms.

1081
00:59:07,640 --> 00:59:09,160
Speaker 3: The House, maybe even the Senate.

1082
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,800
Speaker 19: And that's something that I don't in America. I don't

1083
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:15,240
Speaker 19: really We've made so many strides with Trump, I'd hate

1084
00:59:15,240 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 19: to give it all back over over one issue like this.

1085
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 1: Talk to me about Treeta mentioned the Petro dollar. People

1086
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:26,000
Speaker 1: have to understand I think right now, at least of

1087
00:59:26,040 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 1: what we're seeing is that the tolling that the Revolutionary

1088
00:59:31,600 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 1: Guard pirates are putting on anything coming out of her moves.

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00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:40,160
Speaker 1: First of it's only going to really their allies are there.

1090
00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:43,320
Speaker 1: New would be ally, I think India, because in India

1091
00:59:43,360 --> 00:59:46,360
Speaker 1: gets some of this too. It's all being my understanding,

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00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 1: it's everything's being transacted in yuan, the Chinese currency. He mentioned,

1093
00:59:51,440 --> 00:59:54,600
Speaker 1: the petro dollar, and this is going to get to

1094
00:59:54,600 --> 00:59:56,680
Speaker 1: be the pressure on the US dollars. This is getting

1095
00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:59,760
Speaker 1: the bricks nations. Another body at the Apple and trying

1096
00:59:59,800 --> 01:00:03,920
Speaker 1: to in the United States financially, particularly folks on this budget.

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01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,840
Speaker 1: They just got put up and it's been out three days.

1098
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 1: We haven't had a chance to talk to you about

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01:00:08,440 --> 01:00:12,160
Speaker 1: it because it is pretty i think, shocking, right, and

1100
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 1: we have to address it because the deficits are talking

1101
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:17,080
Speaker 1: about are substantial and going to put additional pressure or

1102
01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:20,240
Speaker 1: the US dollar. Talk to people about this whole fight

1103
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:24,960
Speaker 1: behind the scenes on the financial war between using the

1104
01:00:25,040 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 1: Chinese currency. And you can tell Iran is hardwired with

1105
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 1: the Chinese companies party on this and treated made it

1106
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 1: as like a give hey, look, as a big negotiation.

1107
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:38,520
Speaker 1: We'll give you the survival of the petro dollar. I

1108
01:00:38,560 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 1: mean that's you know, just said casually. That is a

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01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:44,800
Speaker 1: huge deal. And to understand that they think and remember

1110
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:48,360
Speaker 1: he was given their perspective that they think that they've

1111
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 1: got us by the throat on that is a is

1112
01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:53,000
Speaker 1: a pretty big headline, sir.

1113
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:54,080
Speaker 3: Yeah.

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01:00:54,280 --> 01:00:57,360
Speaker 19: And he's right about one thing that if you do

1115
01:00:58,080 --> 01:01:00,200
Speaker 19: open up this idea to the world that the US

1116
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 19: dollars no longer the currency that you trade global commodities, oil, gold,

1117
01:01:05,200 --> 01:01:07,640
Speaker 19: various warms, you have to go to the US buy

1118
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:10,320
Speaker 19: US dollars to trade a barrel of oil all around

1119
01:01:10,360 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 19: the world. If you move to the yuan or some

1120
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:16,000
Speaker 19: sort of brick currency, which they've been trying to do,

1121
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 19: you devalue the dollar greatly, greatly, devalue the dollar. And

1122
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:22,360
Speaker 19: that means every asset that we hold in US dollars

1123
01:01:22,440 --> 01:01:25,120
Speaker 19: will be devalued as well. It's a very dangerous game

1124
01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:30,880
Speaker 19: of chicken there as well. You know, I think the stability,

1125
01:01:30,960 --> 01:01:33,920
Speaker 19: the global stability, that the dollar will remain. There are

1126
01:01:33,920 --> 01:01:36,200
Speaker 19: too many weird things going on in China, too many

1127
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 19: things going on. And let's say Russia and then the

1128
01:01:38,560 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 19: brick countries where businessmen are smart.

1129
01:01:42,040 --> 01:01:43,680
Speaker 3: They're not going to do it just out.

1130
01:01:43,480 --> 01:01:47,000
Speaker 19: Of politics or political feelings or ideology. They're going to

1131
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:49,560
Speaker 19: do it where the money is the safest. And still,

1132
01:01:49,640 --> 01:01:52,280
Speaker 19: so far, the US dollar is the safest currency on

1133
01:01:52,320 --> 01:01:54,920
Speaker 19: the planet bar none by a long shot. But if

1134
01:01:54,920 --> 01:01:58,160
Speaker 19: you start undermining the integrity of the dollar, yeah, that

1135
01:01:58,280 --> 01:02:02,400
Speaker 19: is a major, major risk. Are all so detrimental to

1136
01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:05,520
Speaker 19: our economy. A lot of folks are saying, oh, you know,

1137
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:07,680
Speaker 19: this isn't a big deal. It's going to go away soon.

1138
01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:08,200
Speaker 3: It's not.

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01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 19: Prices are going inflation is what we got Biden out

1140
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 19: of office with. We're going to be up against some

1141
01:02:14,520 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 19: massive inflation at the worst hop possible time politically. So

1142
01:02:19,600 --> 01:02:21,760
Speaker 19: I think this thing has to end and fast, even

1143
01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 19: if it ends badly ended fast.

1144
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 1: Many people are saying, hey, look, this is just another

1145
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:34,520
Speaker 1: Middle East war. I'm not interested in it. You know,

1146
01:02:34,600 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 1: I want to watch you know, what's happening on TV

1147
01:02:38,040 --> 01:02:40,440
Speaker 1: or other events or the Final Four. That's all fine.

1148
01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:42,800
Speaker 1: You may not have an interest in this war. This

1149
01:02:42,880 --> 01:02:46,120
Speaker 1: war definitely has an interest in you. First off, everything

1150
01:02:46,160 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 1: about the dollar and what they're trying to do with

1151
01:02:47,840 --> 01:02:50,640
Speaker 1: the dollar is directly involve you. Interest rates, the ten

1152
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 1: year treasury. How we finance all this? I think diesel

1153
01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:57,240
Speaker 1: probably somebody told me diesel was six over the engine room,

1154
01:02:57,240 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 1: and Phoenix told me that diesel was over six bucks

1155
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:01,400
Speaker 1: a gallon. I think six dollars and eighteen cents in

1156
01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:05,840
Speaker 1: Phoenix today. Gasoline increasing, fertilizer, price for food. This is

1157
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:08,880
Speaker 1: all in a strictly linked into the global economy. That's

1158
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:13,400
Speaker 1: why the Iranians, although they're getting crushed and Captain Fanel

1159
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:17,680
Speaker 1: and Sincom are absolutely correct on a conventional military sense,

1160
01:03:17,880 --> 01:03:20,560
Speaker 1: they are getting crushed like very few people in this

1161
01:03:20,600 --> 01:03:23,080
Speaker 1: world have gotten crushed. I think it shows you their toughness.

1162
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 1: Now there is this thing. They've already had to go

1163
01:03:25,200 --> 01:03:29,040
Speaker 1: to a barter economy. They may be relatively close to

1164
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:32,360
Speaker 1: a state collapse. Even in a state collapse, is that

1165
01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:35,200
Speaker 1: going to stop their kind of asymmetric warfare, particularly as

1166
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:39,000
Speaker 1: you got these pirates that are down closed to the Hermus,

1167
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 1: the Straight of Hermus, and those islands down there that

1168
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 1: have really set up a tolling operation to kind of

1169
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:47,800
Speaker 1: restrict flow. And right now it doesn't even mean insurance.

1170
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:51,400
Speaker 1: Just captains aren't prepared to put it at risk and

1171
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:54,600
Speaker 1: go there and take a couple of incomings sitting on

1172
01:03:54,640 --> 01:03:57,680
Speaker 1: a million barrels of oil that are blown the Kingdom come.

1173
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:02,200
Speaker 1: So this war has a direct interest in your financial

1174
01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:05,640
Speaker 1: and economic wellbeing. Eric Bowling closing thoughts, and then tell

1175
01:04:05,720 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 1: us where to get you. We're going to have the

1176
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:10,280
Speaker 1: presidents at one. Eric Bowling will be at four. We're

1177
01:04:10,320 --> 01:04:12,520
Speaker 1: going to do a transition with Eric talk all about it.

1178
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:15,040
Speaker 1: And then at five and six o'clock Tonight Live, we're

1179
01:04:15,040 --> 01:04:17,680
Speaker 1: gonna break it all down for you. Eric closing thoughts,

1180
01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:18,840
Speaker 1: and then where do we get you?

1181
01:04:18,880 --> 01:04:21,480
Speaker 19: Sir, So the closing thought is this, First of all,

1182
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:24,360
Speaker 19: there's only thirteen ships that have navigated the straight of

1183
01:04:24,400 --> 01:04:28,280
Speaker 19: Hormoes in the past week, still ridiculously low. It's nowhere

1184
01:04:28,360 --> 01:04:29,640
Speaker 19: near open, not even close.

1185
01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:30,800
Speaker 3: So what happens, Steve?

1186
01:04:31,040 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 19: If the dollar gets devalued, a weaker dollar force is inflationary.

1187
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:38,520
Speaker 19: It's an inflationary force because you need more dollars to

1188
01:04:38,600 --> 01:04:41,200
Speaker 19: go after the same goods, so you're chasing more goods.

1189
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 3: Inflation isn't up.

1190
01:04:43,000 --> 01:04:45,880
Speaker 19: It just just jacked up as the dollar gets gets sold,

1191
01:04:45,920 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 19: which will happen if they take the geopolitical requirement of

1192
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 19: the US dollar to trade oil and others, and then

1193
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:57,120
Speaker 19: you already have the fuel prices pushing inflation higher as well.

1194
01:04:57,240 --> 01:05:00,400
Speaker 19: You have a double bang effect of inflation higher on

1195
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:01,440
Speaker 19: the US economy.

1196
01:05:01,920 --> 01:05:06,120
Speaker 3: There's only one solution to that. That's raising interest rates.

1197
01:05:05,680 --> 01:05:09,880
Speaker 19: That puts a weight an anchor on the equity markets.

1198
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 19: It's all bad. Inflation is the silent killer, and it

1199
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:16,840
Speaker 19: will kill the economy, the US economy, maybe the global

1200
01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:17,479
Speaker 19: economy as.

1201
01:05:17,400 --> 01:05:20,400
Speaker 3: Well, needs to happen. Faster, faster the better.

1202
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:23,160
Speaker 19: And Steven and again, I'm very, very worried about midterms

1203
01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 19: at this rate, I'm not being dooming Gloom. I think

1204
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:27,439
Speaker 19: Trump has the ability even if it goes to five

1205
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:30,120
Speaker 19: bucks a gallon, he can start working to down south

1206
01:05:30,200 --> 01:05:33,400
Speaker 19: and go into the midterms with better pricing.

1207
01:05:35,880 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 1: Eric Bowling, thank you. We'll see you back here at

1208
01:05:37,520 --> 01:05:40,120
Speaker 1: four o'clock. We'll do a transition towards the end of

1209
01:05:40,160 --> 01:05:43,960
Speaker 1: the show. You're gonna be following President Trump one PM.

1210
01:05:44,160 --> 01:05:47,160
Speaker 1: President Trump's at Oval office. Caroline Levitt said that may

1211
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:49,320
Speaker 1: shift down to the briefing room. We're going to see

1212
01:05:49,520 --> 01:05:53,360
Speaker 1: you're gonna get the president in rare form today, and

1213
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:54,200
Speaker 1: we're going to cover it all.

1214
01:05:54,240 --> 01:05:54,800
Speaker 7: Short break