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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me, Joey p joe Pisapa. It's

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Speaker 1: week thirteen DFS time, and of course that means Debro.

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Speaker 2: Derek Brown, the King of Bros.

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Speaker 1: The Fantasy pro is here with me, hanging out talking DFS,

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Speaker 1: getting our lineup set ready to go.

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Speaker 2: We got some teams on a buy so a little

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Speaker 2: bit of a skinnier slate, trying to trim down after

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Speaker 2: the Thanksgiving holiday. That's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: We like that because a little less variance usually is

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Speaker 1: a good thing in this department. Also a good thing

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Speaker 1: is our fantasypros dot com slash optimizer that allows you

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Speaker 1: to harness the power of expert projections, build twitting light ups,

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Speaker 1: effortly set ahead of time, and get you ahead of

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Speaker 1: the competition.

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Speaker 2: Yes, ahead of the competition.

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Speaker 1: Where you always want to be, and of course generating

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Speaker 1: a gazillion lineups, well one hundred and fifty to be exact,

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Speaker 1: you can't do a gazillion, Derek. If you could do

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Speaker 1: a gazillion, would you that's the biggest question?

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Speaker 2: Yep, I sure would, baby, I figured you would.

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Speaker 1: I figured you would And I'll forget also betting pros

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Speaker 1: right now, if you haven't already, we're tying everything in together.

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Speaker 2: It's holiday season.

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Speaker 1: We've got our free trial going on right now too,

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Speaker 1: of premium, So if you haven't downloaded the app, download

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Speaker 1: it now and you get on iOS three free days

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Speaker 1: of premium, which is great because you've got NFL, you

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Speaker 1: got NHL, NBA.

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Speaker 2: I'm pretty much sure that's what you got right now.

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Speaker 1: If I'm forgetting something, I don't know, but you can

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Speaker 1: bet on a bunch of stuff and use the premium

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Speaker 1: and see how darn good it is. De bro let's

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Speaker 1: kick things off here. Let's start with the slate at

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Speaker 1: one o'clock Eastern. We're gonna begin things here with the

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Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans hosting the Indianapolis Colts. The number four of

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Speaker 1: this game right now is forty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Basically is what you're getting. Tennessee Titans. Good against the run.

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Speaker 1: No Jonathan Taylor. Zach Moss will be very chalky, very popular,

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Speaker 1: but that doesn't make it wrong.

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Speaker 2: Last time he had his best game of the season.

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Speaker 2: He's just fifty six.

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Speaker 1: Hundred on FanDuel. Look, he might be sixty five percent

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Speaker 1: roster in some of these bigger tournaments. But I don't

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Speaker 1: know if that's wrong.

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Speaker 2: It's not wrong. I think the answers play Zach Moss

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Speaker 2: and just move on this week.

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Speaker 3: I'm not gonna Tay say that he's a lock button play,

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Speaker 3: but I'm probably gonna as chalky as he is. I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna come over the field on him this week. And

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Speaker 3: this game is just easy, Joe. It's just don't play

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Speaker 3: any freaking Titans. We I mean, Will Levis has done

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Speaker 3: nothing outside of the Falcons just allowing him to do

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Speaker 3: whatever he wanted that week. But I have no love

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Speaker 3: for the Titans offense. On the Colts, this is easy.

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Speaker 3: You want to stack up Gardner Minshew, fine, not gonna

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Speaker 3: tell you not to. You could double stack and play

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Speaker 3: Pittman and Downs, or you could double stack and then

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Speaker 3: play this week.

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Speaker 2: I mean seventy nine fan doll not putting it up. Man,

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Speaker 2: he hasn't be putting off, but he is.

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Speaker 1: You got to pay just about a lead price for him,

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Speaker 1: so you've got to make a choice like him. It's Ayuk,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you really want to go that route,

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Speaker 1: it is pricey, and I.

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Speaker 3: Think that's a really good conversation point him versus Ayuk

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Speaker 3: and play in the totals and stuff. I'll be curious

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Speaker 3: where they come in, because I do like Ayuk more

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Speaker 3: than Pittman this week.

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Speaker 2: But I think this is easy, man. You could double stack.

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Speaker 3: Minshew with either Pittman and Downs or Zack Moss and Pittman.

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Speaker 3: Or you could just play the block of Moss and

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Speaker 3: Pittman and get all the holds points and move on.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next game here

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Speaker 1: on our list. It's not a great one. It's the

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Speaker 1: Chargers in New England. Look, Romandre is getting volume. I

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Speaker 1: think you can make a case for him the total

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Speaker 1: again forty and a half. You're coming off a week

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Speaker 1: where New England couldn't get to ten and the Chargers

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Speaker 1: only got to ten. So not exactly thrilling here from

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Speaker 1: the offenses. And also, I hate Los Angeles traveling to

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Speaker 1: New England for a one o'clock game. I hate this.

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Speaker 1: This is like the worst, So I kind of just

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Speaker 1: fading this game altogether. But maybe Stevenson, is there anything

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Speaker 1: else you like from this one that.

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Speaker 2: People should pay attention to?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think that you know Keenan Allen

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Speaker 3: is always in play, and he's going to go overlooked

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Speaker 3: as far as the top pricey receivers. Now, in saying

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Speaker 3: all that, I know, I understand that he opened the

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Speaker 3: week with DMP because of a quad issue. I think

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Speaker 3: that he plays, and if he plays, he's going to

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Speaker 3: go overlooked. And what have we seen? New England has

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Speaker 3: been giving up a ton of production to passing attacks

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Speaker 3: and wide receivers. I know they run the highest rate

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Speaker 3: of man coverage since Week seven, but Keenan Allen rushes

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Speaker 3: Man covered thirty one percent targets here two point four

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Speaker 3: yards per route run.

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Speaker 2: This is an easy game. You play, Mandre, you played Keenan.

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Speaker 3: If you want to do if Demerio Douglas Clear's concussion

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Speaker 3: protocol this week, I think he's also in play because

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Speaker 3: Los Angeles is given it the seventh most PPR points

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Speaker 3: per target to opposing slot wide receivers.

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Speaker 2: So it's an easy game. Now.

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Speaker 1: The next game has a much higher total where at

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Speaker 1: forty six and a half, forty seven and some other

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Speaker 1: spots for New Orleans Detroit, New Orleans.

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Speaker 2: You know, with the marsh On Latimore injury.

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Speaker 1: Last week, you saw that obviously this offense with your

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Speaker 1: Rashi sh head and Olave being banged up. Juan Johnson

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Speaker 1: is certainly an appealing guy. I know, price wise, he

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Speaker 1: is still pretty cheap on that trough. He got a

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Speaker 1: lot of targets last week when those other guys were out.

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Speaker 1: You would expect kind of the same. And then Detroit

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Speaker 1: is talking about targets. You're paying a premium four of

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Speaker 1: them for Amron Rot makes sense to me. How do

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Speaker 1: you approach this game here that has a higher total?

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Speaker 1: Does it live up to it?

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Speaker 2: Number one? Number two? What are the pieces that help

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Speaker 2: you get there? I mean, I think this game could

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Speaker 2: could live up.

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Speaker 3: I think this game could actually go to the over,

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Speaker 3: depending on if the Saints can offer pushback.

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Speaker 2: I think that the Lions.

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Speaker 3: Are going to come out pissed off in this game,

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Speaker 3: and as they should. The fighting Dan Campbell's are going

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Speaker 3: to do the damn thing this week. I'm not playing

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Speaker 3: Jared Goff, but I think this is easy. It's either

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Speaker 3: played Dave Montgomery or played Jami or Gibbs. Both of

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Speaker 3: those running backs are in play, as well as Amana

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Speaker 3: Saint Brown. We've seen so many weeks Joe of the

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Speaker 3: Lions putting up twenty eight thirty points that easily could

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Speaker 3: be here because the Saints are banged up. No Marshawn Lattimore,

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Speaker 3: maybe Marcus May doesn't play, maybe Cam Jordan doesn't play,

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Speaker 3: so Jared Goff doesn't have to worry about pressure.

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Speaker 2: So you know, fire up your your lions. It's easy.

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Speaker 3: Uh. And on the other side you can play Juwan Johnson.

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Speaker 3: And I don't know if Chris a Lave. I doubt

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Speaker 3: that he put he clears concussion protocol. But if he does,

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Speaker 3: good lord. We just saw what Christian Watson did the secondary.

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Speaker 3: Chris a Lave was nuking the freaking Falcons before he

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Speaker 3: went out with the concussion. If he were to clear,

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Speaker 3: I would definitely have a lot of interest in a Lave.

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Speaker 3: But for me on the on the Saints side right now,

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Speaker 3: it's only Juwan Johnson. Maybe you want to go Taysom Hill,

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Speaker 3: but it's a dicey proposition.

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Speaker 1: Hey, Juwan just forty nine hundred on FanDuel. I mean

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Speaker 1: he's even cheaper on DK and he's really supid GdK too,

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Speaker 1: So like it makes sense.

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Speaker 2: They're the good thing about.

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Speaker 1: This slate, the way it's structured this week is you know,

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Speaker 1: you do want to pay up a wide receiver. But

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Speaker 1: it's games like this next one with Pittsburgh Arizona that

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Speaker 1: allow you to do that because Jalen Warren is underpriced

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Speaker 1: right now in both markets in our opinion sixty five

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Speaker 1: hundred on fandled Derek Wi gave me the DK price

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Speaker 1: in a second, but Naji Harris has touchdown equity in

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Speaker 1: this game.

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Speaker 2: Forty one and a half is the number.

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Speaker 1: Arizona's defense was dreadful last week against Kyron Williams. Very

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Speaker 1: similar skill set here for Jalen Warren.

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Speaker 2: You got to imagine you're.

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Speaker 1: Just gonna attack the same way because I don't think

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Speaker 1: Arizona can stop it. So to me, it's running right

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Speaker 1: to those dealers, running back, specifically especially on the PPR

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Speaker 1: Jalen Warren. But I think either you know, both are

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Speaker 1: in play, both.

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Speaker 2: Have options this week. I don't know how you want

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Speaker 2: to run.

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Speaker 1: It back with Kyler, with McBride, or if you just

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Speaker 1: don't want to touch Arizona at all.

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Speaker 3: No, you don't touch Arizona because they are banged up

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Speaker 3: to hell and back. Like Marquise Brown's dealing with a

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Speaker 3: heel injury even if he plays. I want no part

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Speaker 3: because he can get a shadow for Joey Porter Junior,

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Speaker 3: who has been amazing. Joe Joey Porter Junior is one

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Speaker 3: of the best young corners in the NFL. Keeps saying

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Speaker 3: it over and over again. I'm going to keep saying

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Speaker 3: it until people understand it. But on the Steelers side, man,

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Speaker 3: it's just start all your freaking Steelers. I think Kenny

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Speaker 3: Pickett is viable for GPPs this week, as crazy as

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Speaker 3: that is, and I have not mentioned Kenny Pickett's name

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Speaker 3: this entire season, but what he did last week with

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Speaker 3: the change in the OC, Joe, we gotta throw that

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Speaker 3: out there, man. Like last week amongst thirty quarterbacks, he

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Speaker 3: was sixteen yards per attempt, he was ninth and passer

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Speaker 3: rating eleventh and a dot. He was second and highly

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Speaker 3: accurate throw rate like he looked like a different quarterback.

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Speaker 3: He looked like preseason Kenny Pickett. So the other side

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Speaker 3: of this game is if if Nause and Jalen Warren

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Speaker 3: get all the steam, and I'm not saying not to

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Speaker 3: play them, it is a fantastic matchup.

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Speaker 2: I get it.

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Speaker 3: Kenny Pickett is the oppo play in GPPs because the

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Speaker 3: stacking partners versus the card and they're two high. Looks

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Speaker 3: are so freaking easy, man, It's played Deontay Johnson who

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Speaker 3: against too High uh since week eight has let me

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Speaker 3: see it since week seven against too high twenty five

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Speaker 3: percent targets here. Pat friarmth this season against too High,

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Speaker 3: So all of the games where he has been active,

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Speaker 3: he is a or sixteen percent targets here. He has

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Speaker 3: one point nine yards per route run against Too High.

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Speaker 3: So this is a really easy game to get different,

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Speaker 3: and you're saving a ton of salary. Man, Like if

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Speaker 3: Kenny Pickett goes out there and throws for two touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: one goes to Deontay, one goes to Patty Frye. You're

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Speaker 3: living life, baby, because pickets super cheap. Deonta's super cheap.

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Speaker 3: Pat Friarmuth is super cheap. If we get ceiling outcomes

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Speaker 3: from those three options, you're able to pay up everywhere

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Speaker 3: else in your lineup.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the next game here on

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Speaker 2: our slate.

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Speaker 1: I can tell you I assuredly want the defense of

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Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons this week traveling to New York to

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Speaker 1: take on the Jets. Thirty four is the number for

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Speaker 1: this game in most spots already three and a half,

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Speaker 1: and some others, like the Jets offense has been terrible,

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Speaker 1: you gotta take advantage of it. The Falcons defense coming

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Speaker 1: off a double digit game, I love it.

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Speaker 2: I don't love Desmond Ridder on the road.

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Speaker 1: I think there's a chance, you know, I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: always a chance every week that the Jets could just

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Speaker 1: get shut out, Like I think they have that ability

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Speaker 1: or disability.

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Speaker 2: I watch and phrase that.

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Speaker 1: But the Atlanta Falcons right now, I mean, you hand

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Speaker 1: the ball to Jon Robinson. You don't love Ritter. I

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Speaker 1: think this is what it is. It is Bijon, It's

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Speaker 1: the Falcons defense, and you move on. But deebro, do

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Speaker 1: you see something else in this game that I don't.

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Speaker 3: Nope, I'm totally with you. We're in concert, Joe. It's

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Speaker 3: Bijon at atl defense.

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Speaker 2: And just keep trucking, baby, all right, let's keep trucking.

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Speaker 1: Then to the next game here, Miami at Washington forty

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Speaker 1: nine and a half. This one's got a high total.

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Speaker 1: I know we just did a show together on FP

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Speaker 1: where you mentioned about Sam Howe just throwing football's all

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Speaker 1: day long. Curtis Samuel is a piece that's in play,

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Speaker 1: he is more cost effective than Terry McLaurin is. And

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Speaker 1: then looking back on the Miami side, look, Miami defensively

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Speaker 1: missing some pieces with Jalen Phillips getting hurt last week.

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Speaker 2: This might be one of these sneakier get how is

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Speaker 2: he sneaky because the total is high?

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Speaker 1: But I feel like the Washington side of this game

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Speaker 1: here to keep pace with Miami might be a little underappreciated.

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Speaker 2: Do you agree or disagree? I massively agree. People do not.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look, there are weeks where Sam how has

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Speaker 3: a good matchup and people want to play Sam Howe.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that this is one of those weeks.

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Speaker 3: But we just saw Sam Howe drop three hundred passing

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Speaker 3: yards on the freaking Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: As good as the.

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Speaker 3: Dolphins secondary has been, do we really think that they're

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Speaker 3: better than the damn Cowboys? I don't so, Sam how

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Speaker 3: we know is gonna chuck the freaking ball like he

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Speaker 3: has not attempted less than forty two passes in a

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Speaker 3: game since Week six people, So the passing volume is

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Speaker 3: gonna be there, man. So I think both sides of that,

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Speaker 3: both these pass attacks are firmly in play. Obviously, a

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Speaker 3: lot of people are gonna like Tua. They should like

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Speaker 3: Tua as long as Tyreek Hill plays, which I think

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Speaker 3: he does suit up. He's dealt with a myriad of

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Speaker 3: injuries all year and he still plays. So as far

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Speaker 3: as on the Dolphin side, it's super easy. You play Tyreek,

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Speaker 3: you move on on the Commander's side, you could get interesting.

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Speaker 3: And you can also get interesting with some game stacks

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Speaker 3: like the Commanders. Joe, how many times have we talked

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Speaker 3: about this? The Commanders offer pushback in these games where

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Speaker 3: we think that they won't. I know they didn't do

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Speaker 3: that versus the Cowboys, but versus the Eagles, We've seen

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Speaker 3: it multiple times. They have the ability to push these teams.

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Speaker 3: And if they do, Sam How's gonna put up production.

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Speaker 3: And the stacking partners are super freaking easy. It's stay

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Speaker 3: away from the outside corners. For the Miami Dolphins, Xavion

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Speaker 3: Howard and Jalen Ramsey have been amazing so far this year,

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Speaker 3: and you just play, you double stack Sam Howe and

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Speaker 3: you play Curtis Samuel. Curtis Samuel is one of my

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Speaker 3: favorite one off plays of this entire freaking slate because

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Speaker 3: we just saw his what his ceiling is he has

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Speaker 3: one hundred receiving yard upside. Okay, great, then he is

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Speaker 3: dramatically underpriced. He's sub five k over on DK's forty

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Speaker 3: one hundred.

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Speaker 2: That is awesome.

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Speaker 3: And the fact that he's going to run seventy three

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Speaker 3: percent of his routes against Miami slot corners, rolling a

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Speaker 3: one to twenty nine.

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Speaker 2: Pass rating in his coverage.

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Speaker 3: If you're double stacking sam Hall again, it's Curtis Samuel

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Speaker 3: and it's Logan Thomas. Man Miami is allowing the eleventh

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Speaker 3: most fantasy points and ninth most receiving yards per game

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Speaker 3: to opposing tight ends. Again, we have seen what the

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Speaker 3: ceiling looks like for Logan Thomas. He could go out

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Speaker 3: there this week and get eight nine catches that would

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Speaker 3: not surprise me at all, and nobody's gonna play him.

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Speaker 2: Houston and Denver, this should be a fun one.

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Speaker 1: Forty seven and a half is the number tak Dell

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Speaker 1: anytime touchdowns. Just continued to ring the bell every single week.

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Speaker 1: I know you have some concerns about Nico Collins, but

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Speaker 1: Stroud continues to throw the football at a high rate.

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Speaker 1: Denver's defense has played much better. Javonte is in a

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Speaker 1: really good spot here. They give up a lot of

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Speaker 1: touchdowns to running backs. We know he's due for one

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Speaker 1: of those, so I like Javonte in this spot.

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Speaker 2: Houston Texans. Obviously, Tank Dell is in play every week.

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Speaker 1: The price has gone up though, finally, so really looking

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Speaker 1: at that Tank Dell price, he's now eighty two hundred.

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Speaker 1: He's ahead of Brandon Iu on FanDuel. So just for perspective,

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Speaker 1: it's caught up. It took a while, but it's finally happened.

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Speaker 1: Now the question becomes is it worth investing in at

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Speaker 1: this price?

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Speaker 3: I think it is worth investing at this price, Joe,

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Speaker 3: and I think both these quarterbacks are in place. You

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Speaker 3: could stack up Russell Wilson, you could stack up CJ. Stroud.

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Speaker 3: We've seen the Texans pass defense has fallen off the

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Speaker 3: map since Week seven. Fourth highest yards per attempt, six,

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Speaker 3: most passing yards per game. So Russell Wilson's not a

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Speaker 3: guy that I've been had a lot of interest in

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Speaker 3: this year, but I think for large field GPPs he's

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Speaker 3: in play.

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Speaker 2: CJ.

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Speaker 3: Stroud is in play every single freaking week, and Stroud,

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Speaker 3: I think that the stacking partners are pretty freaking easy man.

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Speaker 3: It's if you think the Houston Texans can roll in

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Speaker 3: this game. Devin Singletary. I know that the correlations might

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Speaker 3: not look great, but we saw he got a lot

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Speaker 3: of run in the passing game. If we think that

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Speaker 3: some of these parts of pieces like Dalton Schultz is

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Speaker 3: out this week, you can go to Brevin Jordan if

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Speaker 3: you're looking for value in this game, because Denver is

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Speaker 3: legit the best matchup on the board for tight ends.

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Speaker 3: So Brevin Jordan is the punt option at tight end

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Speaker 3: this week, and he could open up.

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Speaker 2: The entire board for you. But there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: interesting pieces in this game.

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Speaker 3: Joe, I love Devin Singletary talked by both the quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: Courtland Sutton. All he does is catch freaking touchdowns. Since

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Speaker 3: Week seven, Houston Texans are allowing the most PPR points

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Speaker 3: per target to opposing perimeter wide receivers, so Sutton's in play.

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Speaker 3: I do not want any part of Nico Commins because

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Speaker 3: I think he gets the shadow coverage for Patrick Tam

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Speaker 3: because he plays all on the boundary.

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Speaker 2: Tank Dell does not do that. Now.

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Speaker 3: Is Tank Dell a primary outside wide receiver, Yes, but

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Speaker 3: what we've.

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Speaker 2: Seen the Texans do is when they.

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Speaker 3: Need to get Tank Dell off of really good cornerbacks,

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Speaker 3: they are willing to toss him into the slot. He

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Speaker 3: has played in certain weeks thirty four to forty two

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Speaker 3: percent of his routes from the slot. So we could

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Speaker 3: see Tank Dell move inside this week, kick Robert Woods

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Speaker 3: or Noah Brown to the outside, because Noah Brown might

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Speaker 3: be bad because he's practicing. So I think the Tank

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Speaker 3: Dell price tag is justified. And again the CJ's Strouds

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Speaker 3: tacks are easy.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 3: It's play Devin Singletary, play Tank Dell, and if we

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Speaker 3: get the free square of Revin Jordan open up, play him.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's see you.

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Speaker 1: We'll play in this next one here, it's Tampa hosting

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Speaker 1: Carolina thirty six and a half.

361
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Speaker 2: Thirty seven.

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Speaker 1: That's the number you're getting in most of the books

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Speaker 1: right now. I gotta say I'm really in on Tampa

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Speaker 1: this week. I like Baker Mayfield as a cheap quarterback.

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Speaker 1: I like the easy pairing of him and Mike Evans

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Speaker 1: because Mike Evans just scores touchdowns every week. It feels

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Speaker 1: like his toushown equity's been incredible. It's a great matchup here.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the Frank Reich hiring is the firing.

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Speaker 1: Excuse me, is the bounce that you usually get, Like

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Speaker 1: you know, Josh.

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Speaker 2: Mc daniels is gone. Now everyone rallies around Antonio Peers.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that's happening.

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Speaker 1: You can't get rid of as many coaches as you

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Speaker 1: did and then go on the road, I think, and

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Speaker 1: win a football game. And Carolina has struggled all year anyway.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it gets better. I think it gets worse.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take advantage of that Mayfield Evans, especially

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Speaker 1: on Fandel. It's a good return I think on investment,

379
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Speaker 1: lots of touchdown equity. I think Mike Evans is due

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Speaker 1: for one of the ones, you know, vintage big Mike

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Speaker 1: Evans games. You know he has like some of those

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Speaker 1: you know, six for one forty kind of games with

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns. Like, I think we're due for another one

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Speaker 1: of those bad boys. What do you think of this

385
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Speaker 1: contest here? Even Tampa defense I think is very much

386
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 1: in play, isn't it now?

387
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Speaker 3: You got me thinking of last year? Isn't the blow

388
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Speaker 3: Oh it was?

389
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Speaker 2: He it was.

390
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Speaker 3: It was the blow up game for Mike Evans in

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Speaker 3: week seventeen, Baby, he went for two oh seven and

392
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Speaker 3: three on the Panthers. Now, I'm not saying that Mike

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Speaker 3: Evans is gonna do that this week, but I'm in

394
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Speaker 3: on Mike Evans.

395
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Speaker 2: I think that this is this game is just easy.

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Speaker 3: It's you play Mike Evans, you play uh Rashad White,

397
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Speaker 3: because we know the Panthers cannot stop the run. You

398
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Speaker 3: probably get all of the points for the Buccaneers. And

399
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Speaker 3: if you want a game, stack this again, it's really easy.

400
00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 3: We know that you give up a lot of production

401
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 3: through the air, least Tampa Tampa does, so you play

402
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,920
Speaker 3: Adam Thielen, who nobody's gonna want to play it because again,

403
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Speaker 3: all the reasons that you mentioned, Joe, and I don't

404
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 3: disagree with them. I think that we wouldn't see the bounce,

405
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Speaker 3: kind of like you're talking about with Josh McDaniels. Only

406
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 3: if Dave Temper sold the team, then we would see

407
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,320
Speaker 3: the massive bounce. Then then you'd be betting for Carolina

408
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,920
Speaker 3: to win. But that's not gonna happen. So in this game,

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Speaker 3: we're just gonna play at Mike Evans, We're gonna play

410
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Speaker 3: for Sead White. If you want to go to the

411
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Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield route. I'm not against it and play Adam

412
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Speaker 3: thiel On on the other side.

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Speaker 1: Now, this next game is gonna be the most public

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Speaker 1: by far, and I think exposure to it is probably

415
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,200
Speaker 1: a good thing. But I'm a little concerned about overexposure

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Speaker 1: to it. The Philadelphia Eagles ten oh one taking on

417
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:24,639
Speaker 1: the eight and three San Francisco forty nine ers. Forty

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00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 1: eight is the number for this game. It's a high number.

419
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Speaker 1: I'm actually playing the under on this one. I know

420
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Speaker 1: people are surprised by that, but I think these two

421
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:32,560
Speaker 1: teams are going to be a very physical football game.

422
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,960
Speaker 1: I like Aj Brown a lot in this game. I

423
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,960
Speaker 1: like Brendan Ayuk in this game. You can make a

424
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:41,360
Speaker 1: case certainly for DeAndre Swift, but I think overall, I'm

425
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Speaker 1: not saying it's.

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Speaker 2: Gonna be disappointing, Derek.

427
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Speaker 1: But I think that there will be a lot of

428
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 1: lineups that are heavily invested in this and if you

429
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:49,719
Speaker 1: have a good lineup that's not it could be a

430
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,240
Speaker 1: very big difference maker if this game underperforms.

431
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Speaker 3: I don't disagree with that. I like this game a lot.

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Speaker 3: I'm not against fading this game. Because we've seen both

433
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Speaker 3: of these defenses play well in Spurts. Now we've also

434
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Speaker 3: seen both of these defenses give up a crap ton

435
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Speaker 3: of production. So I will not full fade this game,

436
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:11,640
Speaker 3: but I do think that in some of your lineups

437
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,480
Speaker 3: you do need to consider fading this game.

438
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,160
Speaker 2: Now it put this in its own vacuum.

439
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:17,919
Speaker 3: I do love this game in the sense that there

440
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 3: are clear paths to production for both of these offenses.

441
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,560
Speaker 3: Rock Party Jalen Hurts are both in play. If I

442
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 3: got to pick one of those guys, it is brock

443
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,440
Speaker 3: Party because I think his stacking partners are so freaking easy.

444
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:33,080
Speaker 3: And if you look at the coverage matchups, I mean,

445
00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 3: I don't have to tell anybody to play CMC or

446
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:35,800
Speaker 3: don't play CMC.

447
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:37,960
Speaker 2: You do that or you don't do that. That's fine.

448
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 3: You can run on the Eagles that that's totally fine.

449
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 3: I'm not going to spend time on CMC. But with

450
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,680
Speaker 3: Rock Party, if you look at the coverage matchups man

451
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:49,240
Speaker 3: since Week seven, the Eagles have run the seventh highest

452
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,200
Speaker 3: rate of man coverage and fifty seven percent of the

453
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 3: defensive snaps have been single high. Now single high coverage

454
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 3: we talked about this on previous shows. That means all

455
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,880
Speaker 3: the damn Brandon Ayuk and George Kittle that you can

456
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:03,879
Speaker 3: get your hands on versus single high and man coverage,

457
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 3: the ball goes to Brandon Ayuk and George Kittle twenty

458
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,439
Speaker 3: four percent target chair, twenty one percent target chair for

459
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,160
Speaker 3: both of these guys against those coverages. Deebo Samuel disappears

460
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 3: against both of them. He's got a sixteen percent first

461
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 3: read cheer and it's in a well, actually a sixteen

462
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,120
Speaker 3: percent first reach cheer against single high and man coverage.

463
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,719
Speaker 3: So Deebo is off the map this week. I'm not

464
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 3: playing Debo Brandon Ayuku is. I'm Mike evans Man. Nobody

465
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,880
Speaker 3: ever wants to play Brandon Ayuk and the guy I want.

466
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 2: To play I do, I do do.

467
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,199
Speaker 3: And the thing about Brandon Ayuk is he does not

468
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,440
Speaker 3: get the red zone looks. So when Brandon Ayuk goes

469
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 3: the hell off, it's because he catches deep balls and

470
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 3: he goes for touchdowns that way. So I love Brandon Ayuk.

471
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 3: He's honestly my favorite one off of this game. I

472
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 3: will have lineups where I'm not fading this game, but

473
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,720
Speaker 3: I think building lineups also where you get exposure to

474
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,840
Speaker 3: this game and you just play one of Brandon Ayuk

475
00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 3: or George Kittle, because George Kittle is gonna come in

476
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 3: not popular, nobody ever wants to pay up for George Kittle,

477
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,680
Speaker 3: and it's wrong because he has He has the highest

478
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 3: ceiling on this entire slate as far as tight ends.

479
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 2: Nobody else is.

480
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 1: He also has a giant crater where you know, there's

481
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 1: that George Kittle.

482
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:14,880
Speaker 2: That's why nobody wants to play him.

483
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 3: And when he hits, he hits massively and he will

484
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 3: bury you.

485
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 1: And if people want to know why I'm fading this

486
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 1: game a little bit, it's because again I want to

487
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,879
Speaker 1: see proc Perty go on the road and win a

488
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 1: big football game against a real contender, not against the

489
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks. You know, I don't care about you know,

490
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:33,879
Speaker 1: I mean, he goes out there to Cleveland against his

491
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:35,880
Speaker 1: butt handed to when that game, you know, he got

492
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: beat around and the Eagles are gonna beat him around.

493
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:39,719
Speaker 1: And that is going to be the most hostile environment

494
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 1: you could possibly find. And I can't, I cannot stress

495
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 1: this enough. This is all Eagle fans are talking about,

496
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 1: This is all the city is talking about. They're gonna

497
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 1: be ready.

498
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 2: And I want to see the wine and cheese forty

499
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 2: nine ers show up in this one. I want to see.

500
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 2: I don't disagree with you, man, like I think this is.

501
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 2: And they might eat Crow.

502
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 1: I will eat Crow, But you know what, I keep

503
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 1: eating dollars because every week I he betting the Eagles

504
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 1: in these big games, and every week they find a

505
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 1: way to win. And I don't think that should be

506
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:06,720
Speaker 1: lost on anybody at this point. This week, it's gonna

507
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,879
Speaker 1: be on the back of AJ Brown. AJ Brown's been

508
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 1: kind of quiet, Joey. I think this is the eruption spot.

509
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 1: This is the pisch off.

510
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 3: AJ Brown is gonna be scoring touchdowns and wagging his

511
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 3: finger in corners faces and just doing his thing. Man.

512
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 3: AJ Brown's my favorite wide receiver. Play the entire slate.

513
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,880
Speaker 3: If you're not playing Tyreek Hill, Scorched Earth, Baby, Scorched Earth.

514
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 1: Let's go all right, last one here, Maybe a little

515
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 1: of a downer after that one.

516
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 2: We probably should have ended on that, but that's okay.

517
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 2: Find a way to make this work.

518
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: I mean Kyrin Williams, I mean Derek Brown on TV

519
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 1: about twenty minutes with me on Kyron Williams.

520
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:41,719
Speaker 2: He's still going somewhere.

521
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: There's more footage the Chargers, excuse me, the Los Angeles Rams,

522
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,239
Speaker 1: pardon me. Forty and a half is the number here

523
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 1: in this one in LA, but they have no homefield advantage.

524
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 1: Cleveland travels with suspect quarterback play. I mean, I don't know, man,

525
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 1: I just can't get excited about this game from a

526
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 1: DFS standpoint.

527
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 2: But is it Kyron again, Kyroen again?

528
00:21:59,080 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 3: Man?

529
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 2: He's he is dramatically underpriced for his role.

530
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 3: And people could look at the price tag and say,

531
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 3: I mean, you're you're paying seven K like on DK

532
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,399
Speaker 3: like why? Or I think he's ad seventy two hundred

533
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 3: off top of my head, but like it's still it's underpriced.

534
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 3: If we were to tell you, okay, here's the Todd

535
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 3: Gurley role, which is basically the exact it's the Christian

536
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 3: McCaffrey role, and you're looking at it.

537
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 2: This is what he's playing, and people like easy, really easy.

538
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 2: He only played.

539
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 3: Sixty one percent of the snaps last week. Do you

540
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 3: not realize last week was a massive blowout game?

541
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,919
Speaker 2: If you look at what he did in the first

542
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 2: half of the game.

543
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 3: He played seventy seven percent of the snaps in the

544
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 3: first half when the game was close, unless the Rams

545
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,639
Speaker 3: just absolutely run away, and maybe they do that, but

546
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 3: if they don't, Kyron Williams is gonna play seventy five

547
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 3: to eighty percent of the snaps. People are gonna say

548
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 3: again they would to play against Cleveland's defense. You could

549
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 3: run on Cleveland's defense. When are people gonna understand this?

550
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 2: Man?

551
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 3: Since Week seven, this defense has allowing the highest explosive

552
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 3: run rate, the ninth most misstackles per attempt. Kyen Williams

553
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 3: is almost a freaking lock play for me. He should

554
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 3: be an eight K and above running back and he's not.

555
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 3: His role is under priced this week. Play Kien Williams

556
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 3: and enjoy the hell out it this week. And if

557
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 3: you want to, if you want to stack this on

558
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 3: the other side, or just go with a mini in

559
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 3: this game, then David and Joko needs to be talked about.

560
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 2: Man, nobody's playing David and Joku.

561
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,400
Speaker 3: I get that the Browns are not a sexy team

562
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 3: to try to stack up and Joe Flacco and all

563
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 3: those types of things. David and Joko's been doing all

564
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 3: these things without It doesn't matter who the quarterback is

565
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 3: Since week seven, Joe David and Joku has a twenty

566
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 3: four percent target share. Since week seven, he's the tight

567
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,719
Speaker 3: end seven in Fantasy points per game. Since week seven,

568
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 3: David and Joku has twelve red zone targets. Those are

569
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 3: bonkers numbers. So for me, it's easy. You play Kyen Williams,

570
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,120
Speaker 3: you play David and Joku. Both of these guys are

571
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 3: massively underpriced for the volume that they are seeing.

572
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 2: And you love life, You love life. There you have it, everybody.

573
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 1: Make sure you use the optimizer Fantasypros dot com slash

574
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: optimizer get your lineups done. Also, don't forget to subscribe

575
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros YouTube channel and of course of

576
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,439
Speaker 1: the podcast wherever you get your pods. That'll do it

577
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:15,919
Speaker 1: for us, But the story of the game goes on.

578
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: For Derek Brown, I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time.

579
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 2: Kids.

580
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

581
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

582
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on.

583
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 2: Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

584
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

585
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

586
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com.

587
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 2: Slash Betting Pros