1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: JJ zacher rethon. 3 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:12,559 Speaker 2: What's up everyone. 4 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten fifty eight 5 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:18,280 Speaker 1: of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. 6 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in. 7 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: I've got nothing for you to kick off today's show. 8 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: Just make sure you're subscribe to the podcast, subscribe to 9 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: the newsletter, and make sure you're not yelling at me 10 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:30,159 Speaker 1: when I inevitably get a ton of stuff wrong on 11 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 1: today's show. Nothing but love for all of you. Let's 12 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: get to these questions. The first question this week is 13 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,919 Speaker 1: from Twitter. It's from at TLW Travis. It says, how 14 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: are you viewing Bashall, Tuton, Kyle Manungai, Sean Tucker and 15 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: other similar running backs who appear to be earning more 16 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 1: work approaching RB one B for their teams? Who do 17 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: you like best rest of season to put on your bench? 18 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: So it's kind of hard to know which other similar 19 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: running backs you're talking about here, but I can at 20 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: least talk through those three guys and give you an 21 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: idea of where I stand. I say this to Late 22 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: Round subscribers almost weekly when I do my rest of 23 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: season rankings. But the hardest part about those rankings is 24 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: balancing upside with immediate production. Like Brian Robinson has a 25 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: decent amount of upside, but as immediate production, it's not 26 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: gonna be there. Like I'm ranking Alvin Kamara ahead of 27 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: Blake Korum this week. I believe Kamara is gonna score 28 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 1: more points, but Blake Korum undoubtedly has more upside rest 29 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,399 Speaker 1: of season than Alvin Kamara does. If Kyraen Williams were 30 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: to get hurt, we're talking about a lead back in 31 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: one of the best offensive environments in football. 32 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 2: So how do you rank them? 33 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I could argue strongly that there are some 34 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 1: teams out there that would actually be better with Blake 35 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: Korum than Alvin Kamara, that that's a better option for 36 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: their bench. And I feel the exact same way when 37 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: looking at questions like this, I at least go through 38 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 1: a very similar exercise. BEI Jall, Tuton and Kyle Mnungai 39 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: are actually in pretty similar situations at this point. And 40 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: that's if we assume that Tuton's to continue to see 41 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: a lot of work in that backfield like he did 42 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: in Week eleven before he got hurt. 43 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 2: But if he keeps seeing that kind of work. 44 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: His backfield split might look like Chicago's, but either way, 45 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 1: you're not like starting Kyle Mnungui every single week as 46 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: long as DeAndre Swift is back and healthy. 47 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,279 Speaker 2: Even if Manunguy has like a one or two point. 48 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: Edge and weekly projection versus Tutin, it still doesn't make 49 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 1: him something that you want to start each and every week. 50 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 1: So from that perspective, you're probably just looking at the 51 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: upside case, and the upside case is that Tuton is 52 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: a better prospect in my opinion. Of course, who's in 53 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: a pretty comparable situation overall. Maybe it's slightly worse because 54 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 1: the Bears have average like point three more PPR points 55 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: per game as a backfield this year, but it's overall 56 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: comparable enough. And I also think that Tutin has more 57 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 1: big play and receiving ability. That's why I have Tutin 58 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,519 Speaker 1: ahead of Kyle Mnungui rest of season now. I had 59 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 1: Sean Tucker a decent bit below those two running backs 60 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: in my rest of season rankings this week because those rankings, 61 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 1: he made the assumption that Bucky Irving would be back soon. 62 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,679 Speaker 1: But we've been saying that for like a month now, 63 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:07,119 Speaker 1: and it's not like things have gotten that much more 64 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: optimistic this week. I think Tucker has worked himself into 65 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 1: a bigger role, and as I'll talk about in a second, 66 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is a pretty nice rest of season schedule. 67 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: The weird thing with Tucker is that if everyone's healthy, 68 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 1: I'd have him last on this list, probably because he 69 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 1: does need multiple things to happen in order for him 70 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: to be like that true RB one in his backfield 71 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: that Bell Cow for Tutin and Manunguy. We only need 72 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: one injury, and we saw that earlier this year with 73 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: Kyle Munungui when DeAndre Swift was out. But I think 74 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: there's a very real chance that we get more immediate 75 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: production from Sean Tucker given this Bucky Irving situation. 76 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 2: So given everything I just. 77 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: Said, you can look at your team, evaluate your team, 78 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: and see what you need, because that will dictate which 79 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: one of these running backs you should be rostering. And 80 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 1: speaking of Bucky Irving, let's talk about this next question. 81 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: This next question from Twitter is from at Loodi Jibouti. 82 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: It says, what kind of production do you expect from 83 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: Bucky Irving if he reverts to a fifty five percent 84 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 1: or so snapshare player? He was a league winner last 85 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: year on a similar share, But I have a hard 86 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 1: time convincing myself he can repeat, and reinjury risk seems high. 87 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: Perhaps he's a sell on the positive news. Well, since 88 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: his question was sent to me, there hasn't been that 89 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 1: much positive news with Bucky Irving. That's not your fault. 90 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: Things have just changed over the last twenty four to 91 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: forty eight hours. Not only is Irving's status still totally 92 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: up in the air, but now we're getting reports about 93 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: him being on more of a snap count when he 94 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: does return a ramp up period. But I got about 95 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 1: one thousand Bucky Irving questions this week, So let's just 96 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,679 Speaker 1: talk about him, and let's first talk about his usage 97 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: when he is healthy, when he's been healthy, forget all 98 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 1: the injury stuff for a second. Bucky Irving's usage before 99 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: he went down this year, it was awesome. He saw 100 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: no worse than a thirteen percent target share in his 101 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 1: four games, and he was averaging a seventy five percent 102 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: running back rush air per game rate. I mean, that's 103 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: truly an elite combination. And that was not on a 104 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 1: fifty five percent snapshare. He was closer to seventy seventy 105 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: five percent. The snapshare stuff from last year and the 106 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 1: difference between that and what we saw at the beginning 107 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: of this season. It was really the pass catching, Like 108 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: Bucky had a much more impactful receiving role to start 109 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 1: this season, which is why he was in such a 110 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 1: good spot. Just as an example, so you guys can 111 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: wrap your head around this, Bucky hit a fifty percent 112 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 1: route share just three times last year. He's done that 113 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: three times this year, and it probably would have been 114 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 1: all four of his games had he not gotten hurt. 115 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: So his increased snapshare isn't just him taking on more 116 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 1: work on the ground. It's mostly that they were using 117 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 1: him more as a receiver. We have to hope that 118 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,720 Speaker 1: that would continue because that's going to be more sustainable 119 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: and more valuable for Bucky Irving, because, yes, what he 120 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 1: did down the stretch last year not going to be 121 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,359 Speaker 1: super easy to repeat. When you're as efficient as he 122 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 1: was last year, that's not easy to do year over year. 123 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: But I don't see why Bucky Irving can't be a 124 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: sixty percent running back rush are player with a ten 125 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 1: percent target share. Those are lower numbers than where he 126 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 1: was at earlier this year, So we're banking on some 127 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 1: of the injury stuff. We're embedding that in his projection, 128 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 1: but that's still very strong within a good offense because 129 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: his workload looks so good to start the year. That 130 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: shows intent on the Buccaneers end. Now, obviously things have 131 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 1: changed with this injury, but I don't think that means 132 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: that Bucky Irving is like a total fifty to fifty 133 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 1: player with Sean Tucker rest of season, as long as 134 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:36,279 Speaker 1: he's fully healthy. Now, obviously the elephant in the room 135 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: is that he's not healthy right now. If he was healthy, 136 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: he would definitely be playing this week at the time 137 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: of this recording. I have no idea if that's the case, 138 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: and honestly, it sounds more pessimistic than optimistic. And this 139 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: is one of those cases where I know just as 140 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:51,839 Speaker 1: much as you guys do. 141 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 2: I don't have any. 142 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 1: Inside information on Bucky Irving's injury and when he's back, 143 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 1: Like the report said on Thursday, and how we just 144 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 1: generally view this kind of situation, there's gonna be a 145 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 1: ramp up period and that's a good thing for someone 146 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: like Sean Tucker. And why I talked about Tucker having 147 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 1: better immediate production than Beishall, Tooton, and Kyle Manungay, at 148 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: least Kyle Manungai. Here's the thing, though, if I'm sitting 149 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 1: there and I'm a playoff team, I don't think I 150 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 1: would be selling Bucky Irving if I need a win 151 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: right now. Sure, I can totally understand that. 152 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 2: And then on the. 153 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: By end, I might buy Bucky Irving if I could 154 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: send bench. 155 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 2: Assets for him. 156 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: So buying him isn't out of the question either. It's 157 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: just one of those scenarios where you have to know 158 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: what's happening with your individual team. We're late in the 159 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: season now, this isn't just one of those situations where 160 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: it's Week four and we're taking a chance for rest 161 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: of season value. 162 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 2: We know right. 163 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 1: Now where our teams stand. A lot of you have 164 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 1: bye weeks already locked in. You know you're gonna be 165 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: a bye week team, and if that's the case, it's 166 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: a little bit easier to have Bucky Irving on your bench. 167 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: But if you're a five win team, then Bucky Irving 168 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: is not helping you at all. But overall, I do 169 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: think that there's still a decent chance that we get 170 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: really good production from him in the fantasy playoffs, the 171 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 1: Bucks get the Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins in weeks fifteen, sixteen, 172 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: and seventeen. Right before that they get the Cardinals in 173 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: the Saints. So after this week against the Rams, the 174 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: five remaining games for Tampa Bay in this fantasy season, 175 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: they're all pretty much average to above average matchups for 176 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: running backs. So overall, I think the sentiment here is 177 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 1: to hold tight with Bucky Irving. 178 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 2: Scared money, don't make money. 179 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,839 Speaker 1: But if you absolutely need to sell because you need 180 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 1: to win immediately, I totally get that. But if you're set, 181 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be aggressively trying to sell low. And maybe 182 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:47,319 Speaker 1: that comes back to bite you. Maybe you could get 183 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: value right now and he's just going to be out 184 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: rest of season. 185 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 2: We don't know that. 186 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 1: We don't have that answer, but what we do know 187 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: is how they were using Bucky Irving earlier this year, 188 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,319 Speaker 1: and what we do know is that Bucky Irving is 189 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 1: a very good running back. The Bucks are a team 190 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,559 Speaker 1: that need to stay competitive, and Bucky Irving is their 191 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: best running back. So even if he reverts back to 192 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: some of his usage from last year because of this 193 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: schedule situation, as long as he is healthy, I still 194 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: think he's gonna be pretty useful. This last question is 195 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,599 Speaker 1: from at Lensen one top f It says, should you 196 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: buy into Chase Brown for the playoffs slash possible Joe 197 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: Burrow return. Well, I'll say this about Chase Brown his 198 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: rest of season's schedule. 199 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 2: It's awesome. After they get. 200 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 1: Past New England this week, they'll get Baltimore, the eighth 201 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 1: best matchup by jessep points a lot to running backs 202 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: Buffalo who's the third best, and this is being recorded 203 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 1: before Thursday Night Football for the record. Then it's Baltimore again, 204 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 1: Miami who's the twelfth best matchup, and then Arizona who's sixteenth. 205 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: Literally only plus matchups after this win against the Patriots 206 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 1: this week, the only thing standing in Chase Brown's way 207 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: is Samaj p Ryan's ankle. Pee RAN's not gonna go 208 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: this week, but Brown's usage over the bengals last two games, 209 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 1: which will come largely without p Ryn, his. 210 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 2: Usage has been insane. 211 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 1: He's had snap rates of ninety five percent and eighty 212 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 1: three percent. His route shares have been eighty six percent 213 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: and eighty three percent. That's amazing for a running back. 214 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: He's seen target shares of thirty one percent and twenty 215 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 1: one percent. His running back rush heare is around eighty 216 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: five percent. I mean he's seeing elite, elite, elite running 217 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: back usage without Samaj p Ryan. If p Rand's back, 218 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 1: we'd likely lose a little bit of that. Now. There's 219 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: a chance that Brown plays into more work because he's 220 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 1: playing a lot better. I'm just saying that if you're 221 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: going to buy into Chase Brown, which is fine to do, 222 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 1: make sure you're aware that his current usage may not 223 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: be his usage during the Fantasy playoffs. There's a chance 224 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 1: of that happening if Samaj pe Rine's back. 225 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 2: Now. 226 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 1: I don't have this strong urge to say to buy 227 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 1: into Brown because I think fantasy managers generally know that 228 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: he's getting more work, he's playing better, he's scoring more points, 229 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: and Joe Burrow's coming back soon seemingly. But look, if 230 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: you want to go for it, you want to trade 231 00:10:57,320 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 1: for him, I think there's plenty of upside there. There's 232 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 1: definitely reason to do it, and one of those main 233 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 1: reasons is that schedule. The next question is from Blue 234 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 1: Skies from atwith Parks. It says, can I get a 235 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 1: confidence check on bow knicks going into the final stretch 236 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: here he had some absolutely monster games, but the past 237 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 1: two have been brutal duds, which doesn't inspire confidence come playoffs. Yeah, 238 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: I think there's some reason to be nervous. Part of 239 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: the problem is that bow Knicks is just not scrambling 240 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: as much. I don't know if this is by choice 241 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 1: or not, but from weeks one through six, he didn't 242 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 1: have a single game with a scramble rate below three percent, 243 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: and most of those games were closer to five percent. 244 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 1: One of them was at a fifteen percent scramble rate. 245 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: Since then, in his five games, he hasn't reached a 246 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: three percent scramble rate once. That's literally what we need 247 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 1: from bow Nicks to be fantasy relevant, because he's twenty 248 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: eighth in the NFL right now and completion percentage over expected, 249 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 1: he's twentieth in EPA per dropback. He has not been 250 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,839 Speaker 1: a great passer, so really what I'm nervous about is 251 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 1: the lack of rushing. And not only that, Denver has 252 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: a bottom ten fantasy playoff schedule according to my numbers 253 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: for quarterbacks. So yeah, I'm not super into bo Knicks. 254 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:12,560 Speaker 1: If the rushing was there, I'd be a lot more confident. 255 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,080 Speaker 1: The next questions from Twitter is from at David T. 256 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 1: Evans thirty seven. It says, I have some depth that 257 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: I can trade away. I need an elite wide receiver 258 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: to get me into the playoffs. Who are your favorite 259 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: wide receiver targets for the next three weeks? So I'll 260 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: just tell you which wide receivers have the best schedules 261 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: over the next three weeks according to my numbers. I 262 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 1: talk buys and sells in the fifteen Transaction Show each week, 263 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: and I promise you, guys, I'm not hiding anything from you, 264 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,079 Speaker 1: but maybe this will give you some inspiration because there 265 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: are some interesting teams with some pretty good wide receivers 266 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 1: who have good schedules. Number one is Kansas City. Maybe 267 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:53,959 Speaker 1: you could buy a little bit low on Rashid Rice 268 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 1: and that would fit what you're talking about trying to 269 00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: get an elite wide receiver. The Chiefs get the Colts, Cowboys, 270 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: and then the Texans over their next three Now, obviously 271 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 1: Houston wouldn't be the easiest spot in the world for him, 272 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 1: but Indianapolis in Dallas not bad at all next to Cincinnati. 273 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,479 Speaker 1: You probably can't go with Jamar Chase because of that suspension, 274 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: but Ti Higgins. Maybe they get the Patriots this week 275 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 1: that's a plus matchup, and then the Ravens and then 276 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: a not great matchup against the Bills. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia 277 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: are next the Pennsylvania team, so DK Metcalf, Aj Brown, 278 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: DeVante Smith. Pittsburgh gets the Bears, Bills, and Ravens, which honestly, 279 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 1: I don't love those matchups. And DK Metcalf He's definitely 280 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: not been an elite wide receiver by any means. It's 281 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 1: just that in this case, Baltimore's numbers are being anchored 282 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: a little bit by what happened earlier in the season. 283 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: The Eagles, though, they get Dallas, Chicago and then the Chargers. 284 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: It's not a bad stretch of three games, and then 285 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: Detroit is another one all Dome games like I've talked 286 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 1: about on this show, and they get the Giants, Packers, 287 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: and Cowboys over their next three. Both Aman Ross, Saint Brown, 288 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: and Jamison Williams are on the table with that one. 289 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: No t has like three glorious matchups over their next 290 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: three games. But those are some teams and players who 291 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: could do pretty well during that stretch. 292 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 2: The last question this week is an. 293 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: Email it says HIJJ Love the pod. As we move 294 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 1: past the bye weeks and head towards the playoffs, the 295 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: question of carrying two team defenses is an annual tradition. 296 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: Analysts often say it's a bad idea that makes sense 297 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: if the choice is between a defense and a player 298 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 1: like Blake Korum, who's a clear backup on a strong team. 299 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 2: But where is the real line. 300 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: If the worst running back on your roster is Bam 301 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: Knight and the waiver wires empty, why would you not 302 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: drop him and carry two defenses? In theory, if someone 303 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 1: pops up on the wire, you still have a shot 304 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: at that player. A bench stash depends on an injury 305 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 1: and on the player being good enough to matter. A 306 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: second defense can be a strategic move. Example, use Green 307 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: Bay against Minnesota this week and stash San Francisco play 308 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: them against Cleveland next week. If you already know you 309 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 1: prefer San Francisco over green Bay in week thirteen, you 310 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: remove the first layer of uncertainty that applies to skill players. 311 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: At that point, all that remains is analyzing whether the 312 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: choice was right, and that same risk exists with bench 313 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 1: stashes that fail all the time. Thanks Dan So look, 314 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 1: I talked about stashing multiple defenses a couple of weeks 315 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 1: ago on this show, and since then, I've gotten a 316 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 1: few messages from people that are sort of along these 317 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: exact same lines. So let's just talk about this. When 318 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: I give advice on this show, I obviously can't capture 319 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 1: every league iteration and every possibility that's out there. Yes, 320 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: if the player you're stashing is someone like I don't know, 321 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: Phil MafA, yes, I'd rather roster another defense and play 322 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: things one week ahead. Not only does an injury have 323 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: to occur and other things have to occur for Phil 324 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: MafA to even find the field, but even if he does, 325 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: he's probably not a league winning type player given his 326 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: receiving profile. But ninety nine percent of people listening to 327 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: this show, they're not out there choosing me to a 328 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: defense in Phil MafA. Someone like Blake Korum is still 329 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: rostered in just fifteen percent of Yahoo leagues, and I 330 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 1: know not in your league. I get it, he's rostered 331 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: in all of mine too. But even if a slightly 332 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: more hardcore audience is listening to my show right now, 333 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 1: that still means the majority of people have Blake Krum 334 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 1: sitting on their waiver wire. Now, I don't know where 335 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: that obvious line is because it also depends on what 336 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 1: the defensive situation looks like in your league. For instance, 337 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: I'm in a league where people do hoard defenses. There 338 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: are only like six available defenses right now, so I'm 339 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: forced to roster multiple defenses. But if your league only 340 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 1: has twelve defenses rostered, then there's less of a necessity 341 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: to roster multiple defenses. I try to preach this all 342 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: the time with roster management. When you're trying to judge 343 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: what to stash on your bench, you should be looking 344 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: at what's available on the waiver wire. 345 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 2: This is most obvious at quarterback. If you have a 346 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 2: fringe quarterback starter and you're wondering if you should roster 347 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 2: a second one, see how many quarterbacks are available on 348 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 2: your waiver wire. If you'd have five to six choices 349 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 2: each week with reasonable projections, then you don't need to 350 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 2: roster a second quarterback. If the best waiver wire quarterback 351 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 2: right now is Mason Rudolph, then yeah, you probably want 352 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 2: to backup. There's nuance to all of this. 353 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,199 Speaker 1: My main point in saying that non defensive stashes are 354 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,919 Speaker 1: more important than defenses is that there's a ton of 355 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 1: variance with defenses, and generally speaking, it's a less valuable position. 356 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: You're gonna gain a bigger edge in fantasy football if 357 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: you have a backup running back who emerges from an injury. 358 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 2: Then if you have a defense that has a good matchup. 359 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 1: And yes, that injury still has to happen, and chances 360 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 1: are it's not gonna happen, and yes, you could argue 361 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: that you could just get that guy off the waiver 362 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 1: wire when that injury occurs, but you could also argue 363 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: that you can find a reasonable streaming defense off the 364 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 1: waiver wire without having to stash it, and you can 365 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:04,360 Speaker 1: do that right before your playoff matchup. Really, guys, when 366 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 1: you hear me give advice, I just want you to 367 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: do what's most comfortable for you for your league. I'm 368 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,439 Speaker 1: not here to be a dictator. I'm here to just 369 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 1: give you some ideas to help you manage your fantasy 370 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: teams a little bit better. There's always going to be 371 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: a lot of nuance with the things that I say 372 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 1: on this podcast. 373 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 2: But hopefully you're getting a good. 374 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 1: Baseline for analysis, and hopefully the things that I say 375 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: they're at least making you think a little bit deeper 376 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 1: about this game. 377 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 2: That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of 378 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 2: you for listening. 379 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 1: If you subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, 380 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: make sure you are by searching for it pretty much 381 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 1: anywhere podcast can be found. Andel follow me on Twitter 382 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 1: and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. As usual, 383 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 1: there's going to be a Late Round Perspectives episode dropping 384 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 1: later today, and then myself and David Kitchen we'll be 385 00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 1: live on YouTube YouTube dot com slash at Late Round 386 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: FF will be live at one pm Eastern to do 387 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 1: the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. You can watch that 388 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 1: immediately on YouTube when we're done, or you can wait 389 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 1: for it to hit this podcast feed tomorrow morning. Regardless, 390 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: try to consume it. It's a fun show that we do. 391 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,680 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening everyone. Good luck in week twelve. I'll 392 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: talk to you next week.