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Speaker 1: Good Saturday morning, guys. How are you welcome into another

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Speaker 1: episode of the Daily Juice podcast.

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Speaker 2: My name is Matt Perrault.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all of my socials

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt, and we are here for NFL

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Speaker 1: Divisional Round weekend. Two games on Saturday, two games on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: The live stream will hit you leading you up to

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Speaker 1: kickoff of the first game. It's going to be a

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Speaker 1: three o'clock Eastern times start, a noon Pacific time start

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Speaker 1: for myself and Andrew Erickson. Get ready for the Patriot

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Speaker 1: talk between the two of us on our live stream.

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Speaker 2: But I won't be the.

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Speaker 1: Last time we did this, I was in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 1: This time I'm in Vegas. He's still in Massachuset. So

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Speaker 1: we'll do that coming up for an hour and fifteen minutes,

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Speaker 1: taking you up to kickoff between the.

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Speaker 2: Bills and the Broncos.

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Speaker 1: So today I'm going to add to the card that

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Speaker 1: I gave you on Wednesday for Saturday.

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Speaker 2: I got a couple of player props and I've got a.

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Speaker 1: Teaser to tell you guys about and a strategy as

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Speaker 1: to how I'm going to play these games. So stay

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Speaker 1: tuned for that We have got a lot of cool

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Speaker 1: stuff coming because I'll give you more player props on

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Speaker 1: the live stream. Also the player props of the games

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, we'll give it to you as well, so

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Speaker 1: we'll dive deep. We'll give you sides and totals and

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Speaker 1: picks and parlays and all sorts of fun stuff coming

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Speaker 1: up at three o'clock Eastern time with myself and Andrew Ericsson.

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Speaker 1: Before I give you the plays for today, let's tell

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Speaker 2: Okay, more on the championship game on Monday. We'll get

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Speaker 2: to that later. Let's talk.

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Speaker 1: So I have already given you out Broncos money line

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Speaker 1: Seattle minus seven.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so now what are we going to do? What

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Speaker 2: we're going to add? First?

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Speaker 1: I think this is obvious as to what to do

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Speaker 1: with the very interesting marketplace that we have here for

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Speaker 1: rushing in terms.

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Speaker 2: Of where we are.

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Speaker 1: For this Broncos offense and what this Broncos offense is

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Speaker 1: going to do against the Buffalo Bills defense because they

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Speaker 1: cannot stop the run. I am taking the Broncos to

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Speaker 1: win this game because I believe that they're going to

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Speaker 1: run the football. I believe that they're going to protect Bonnicks.

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Speaker 1: I believe they're not going to ask Bonicks to do

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Speaker 1: very much.

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Speaker 2: A lot of screen.

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Speaker 1: Passes, a lot of draws, a lot of just conservative

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Speaker 1: play calling and then riding the defense and making Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen have to be superman to go into Denver at

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Speaker 1: altitude on a short week and beat the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 1: Last year, Denver whipped the Broncos in the playoffs, but

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Speaker 1: that was with the rookie corps and a better offense

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Speaker 1: for Buffalo. Frankly, so now you have the Bills on

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Speaker 1: the road against this Broncos defense that's better than they

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Speaker 1: were last year, and frankly, Sean Payton not very happy

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Speaker 1: about what happened last year.

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Speaker 2: Sean Payton.

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Speaker 1: I gave you the stat last week, or give it

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Speaker 1: to you again, Sean Payton with extra rest, Sean Payton

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Speaker 1: is four to zero in the playoffs straight out, two

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Speaker 1: and two against the spread. But this number is one,

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Speaker 1: so it's you know, money line minus one.

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Speaker 2: I think RJ.

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Speaker 1: Harvey is going to get the football a lot today.

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Speaker 2: I think RJ.

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Speaker 1: Harvey is going to be asked to carry a lot

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Speaker 1: on this on his head. Frankly, fifty four and a

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Speaker 1: half is the market low shop around. Most books are

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Speaker 1: at fifty five and a half, some are at fifty

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Speaker 1: six and a half. But you can find fifty four

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Speaker 1: and a half in the marketplace. You have to go

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Speaker 1: back to the game against Green Bay in which Denver

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Speaker 1: was a one point dog for this number of yard

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Speaker 1: age to be picked up back in week fifteen by RJ. Harvey,

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Speaker 1: sixty five yards he ran in that game. He ran

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Speaker 1: for seventy five on the road against Vegas. He's had fifty,

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Speaker 1: forty three and twenty eight yards the last three games.

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Speaker 1: But what in the world, I mean, think about this

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Speaker 1: for a second. If you're the Broncos and you and

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Speaker 1: you're practicing right, you're getting ready for this Bills defense,

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Speaker 1: Like what are you doing. You're going to work on

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Speaker 1: the running game. You're going to want the running game

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Speaker 1: to be as effective as possible. You're gonna want to

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Speaker 1: run him as much as you can. The Bills are

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Speaker 1: allowing the fifth most rushing yards on the ground per

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Speaker 1: game this season. Like they just get gashed in the

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Speaker 1: on the ground. I just this is just one of

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Speaker 1: those things, Like I think bo Nicks could pick up

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Speaker 1: a bunch of yards running as well. But I look

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Speaker 1: at this game, I look at the game plan and

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Speaker 1: it's kind of like too easy. But I'm gonna bet

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Speaker 1: it anyway, Like it just it has to be RJ.

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Speaker 1: Harvey over fifty four and a half rushing yards. Because

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Speaker 1: of the Bills being thirty first in DVOA versus the

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Speaker 1: run during the regular season, they give up the six

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Speaker 1: most rushing yards to running backs five yards per carry

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Speaker 1: to running backs.

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Speaker 2: They don't have a great run stopper.

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Speaker 1: And even with Ed Oliver coming back and that's been

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Speaker 1: like everyone's like, you know, and but at Oliver okay

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Speaker 1: off of a bicep injury, who knows how healthy he's

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Speaker 1: gonna be, how many snaps he's gonna have. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think from a pass rushing perspective, having Ed Oliver

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Speaker 1: might be a bigger deal than having him stop the run.

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Speaker 1: But even when they had ed Oliver in there, they

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Speaker 1: were still giving up big plays here. So I just

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Speaker 1: expect the Bills to give up big yardage on the

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Speaker 1: ground because they're trying to confuse bo Nicks in the

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Speaker 1: secondary and hide their coverage.

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Speaker 2: I like RJ.

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Speaker 1: Harvey over fifty four and a half rushing yards for RJ.

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Speaker 1: Harvey for one point one units, and then I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take a little bit of a chance here. So Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen rushing attempts are set at FanDuel and other books.

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Speaker 1: At eight and a half, it's plus money. So Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen's averaging eight point eight carries, attempts rushing attempts in

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Speaker 1: his playoff career. Last year he played three games, he

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Speaker 1: ran the ball twenty nine times. The year before he

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Speaker 1: played two games and he ran the ball twenty times.

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Speaker 1: So last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he ran the

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Speaker 1: ball eleven times eleven attempts, so he's averaging basically like

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Speaker 1: ten attempts in the postseason. In the playoff game last

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Speaker 1: year against the Broncos, he had eight, but that was

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Speaker 1: a blowout, so he didn't need to do very much

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Speaker 1: and he's still had eight carries at plus money. To

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Speaker 1: have Josh Allen carry the ball with nine attempts, I

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Speaker 1: think yardage might be good as well. I mean, but

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Speaker 1: they may have a spy on him and they may

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Speaker 1: try to bottle him up and not let him go

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Speaker 1: off for big yardage. And like I think it's set

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Speaker 1: like thirty five thirty six yards, so that's a little

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Speaker 1: bit scary. I mean, he's averaging about thirty three thirty four,

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Speaker 1: thirty five yards per game on the ground, so I

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Speaker 1: don't really want to get involved with that. But attempts

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Speaker 1: is just scrambling him, getting pressured him getting across the

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Speaker 1: line of scrimmage to run the football as a rushing attempt.

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Speaker 1: If we get nine of those, we get plus money.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a good look. I think that's a

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Speaker 1: decent way of getting involved in the prop bet market.

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Speaker 2: And at plus money, I can't turn that down.

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Speaker 1: I think that that's you know, that's just one of

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Speaker 1: those things where I looked at it because we have

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Speaker 1: a new tool that's coming out that I'm gonna tell

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Speaker 1: you about later, but it's market based EV and the

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Speaker 1: market based EV tool really likes this bet for Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: just simply on the value side of it. It is

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Speaker 1: a value play at plus one twelve on FanDuel, and

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Speaker 1: other books have it as plus as well at over

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Speaker 1: eight and a half. Seven and a half is heavily juiced,

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Speaker 1: so the numbers eight. Books assume the numbers eight. But

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Speaker 1: let's get one extra one and let's take a shot

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Speaker 1: here on Josh Allen putting the cape on and trying

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Speaker 1: to run the football a ton here today and Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen to go over eight and a half rushing attempts

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Speaker 1: at plus one twelve for one unit. Now there is

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Speaker 1: one teaser that I want to play and I want

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Speaker 1: to explain. So here's the thing. The forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: are the most heavily bet side of the day. Everyone's

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Speaker 1: taking the points and I'm laying the points. So let's

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Speaker 1: just say I'm wrong. I've been wrong quite a bit.

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Speaker 1: What if I build a middle for myself here, because

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Speaker 1: I don't believe that if I put fifty two points

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Speaker 1: up for the Bills in the Broncos, I don't think

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Speaker 1: we're going over. In fact, I know a lot of

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Speaker 1: people like the under in the game. Overall it's at

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Speaker 1: forty six six point teaser, you put up to fifty two?

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Speaker 1: Are we getting fifty? Were getting fifty three points out

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Speaker 1: of the Broncos who really can't score? I mean, are

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Speaker 1: the Bills going to score thirty points? Like if they

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Speaker 1: score thirty points, how many points of the Broncos go

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Speaker 1: score forty seven? I mean, sorry, sorry, seventeen to make

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Speaker 1: it go forty seven or twenty? No, thirty to twenty.

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Speaker 1: So I have a hard time seeing the Bills scoring

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Speaker 1: thirty points in this game, even though they did last

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Speaker 1: year against these Broncos. So let's just say the Bills

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Speaker 1: score twenty four points. I like the Broncos to win

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Speaker 1: the game, so that would be twenty seven to twenty four, right,

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Speaker 1: fifty one points. You go to fifty two and we're under.

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Speaker 1: That game goes over, but it goes under our teaser.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to tease the game up to fifty two.

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Speaker 1: But then I'm gonna the forty nine ers and go

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Speaker 1: up to thirteen and give the Niners thirteen. So there's

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Speaker 1: a middle there. We need Seattle because remember we have

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Speaker 1: a fourteen to one ticket on both sides. Okay on

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Speaker 1: both sides, so fourteen to one Seattle, fourteen to one

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Speaker 1: San Francisco. So either team that wins, I'm good.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we have a team in the NFC Championship Game.

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Speaker 1: We will be able to hedge off of that coming

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Speaker 1: up here on in the next round. But if Seattle

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Speaker 1: wins by seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, or thirteen

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Speaker 1: in there, as long as the first game goes under

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Speaker 1: fifty two, which I think it will, we.

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Speaker 2: Cash that we hit that.

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Speaker 1: It also gives us some protection in case the Niners

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Speaker 1: win the game. If the Niners somehow shocked the world,

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Speaker 1: then Kyle Shanahan somehow pulls a miracle and Sam Darnold

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Speaker 1: turned back into a pumpkin and he has the worst

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Speaker 1: game of his life. And the forty nine Ers somehow

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Speaker 1: with Robert Sala and it's banged up defense, they go

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Speaker 1: to Seattle and they snap this ten game winning streak

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Speaker 1: for Seattle at home. We have some protection there with that.

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Speaker 1: You don't have to trail this. This is just me, Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is what I'm betting. This is my own gamification here,

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Speaker 1: making a middle between seven and thirteen for the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: to win. And it'd be fine. If they blow out

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Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers, we have the minus seven. If

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Speaker 1: the Niners keep it close and they cover that seven

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Speaker 1: point line, we have the thirteen. The only thing that

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Speaker 1: burns us is if Buffalo and the Bills gets into

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Speaker 1: a really high scoring shootout type of game. But I

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Speaker 1: just don't think that's gonna happen. I don't think the

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Speaker 1: Broncos are capable of getting into a shootout, nor do

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Speaker 1: I think that they want to get into a shootout.

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Speaker 1: So I think the game may go under forty six,

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Speaker 1: so we may not even need to tease it. But

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Speaker 1: I want that thirteen points for the forty nine ers,

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Speaker 1: So I like that side to go ahead and do that,

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Speaker 1: so I'm taking a shot.

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Speaker 2: It's the last.

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Speaker 1: We don't have any more games on Saturday for football

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Speaker 1: after today. Let's have some fun, all right. Plays for

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Speaker 1: today Broncos on the money line, the Seahawks minus seven

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Speaker 1: r J Harvey Harvey over fifty four and a half

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Speaker 1: rushing yards, Josh Allen over eight and a half rushing

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Speaker 1: attempts at plus money and the Broncos under fifty two

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Speaker 1: teased to fifty two take the under and the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers catching thirteen points for our six point teaser

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Speaker 1: for the day. I will talk to you at three

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Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time with myself and Andrew Ericson for our

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Speaker 1: live stream on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Minus Matt

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Speaker 1: Perrault follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk

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Speaker 1: Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts. It

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Speaker 1: is the Daily

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Speaker 2: Juice Sunday Sundry funded to be f