WEBVTT - Bush v. Gore: Episode 2 – Real Numbers 0:00:16.311 --> 0:00:23.191 Pushkin. Hey Leon here, Before we get to this episode, 0:00:23.431 --> 0:00:25.191 I want to let you know that you can binge 0:00:25.231 --> 0:00:28.631 the entire season of Fiasco Bush v goor right now 0:00:28.791 --> 0:00:33.071 ad free by becoming a Pushkin Plus subscriber. Sign up 0:00:33.111 --> 0:00:36.271 for Pushkin Plus on the Fiasco Apple Podcast show page, 0:00:36.871 --> 0:00:44.190 or visit Pushkin dot fm slash Plus. Now onto the episode. 0:00:44.790 --> 0:00:46.870 Previously on Fiasco. 0:00:48.671 --> 0:00:51.230 The Vice President step elbows deep into the La and 0:00:51.311 --> 0:00:52.391 Gonzales controversy. 0:00:52.431 --> 0:00:54.151 I used to be a Democrat at the time over 0:00:54.151 --> 0:00:55.111 the lean Gonzalez. 0:00:55.151 --> 0:00:56.591 He was skilled to by association. 0:00:57.191 --> 0:01:00.431 Suddenly it's a two front war against George Bush and 0:01:00.551 --> 0:01:03.311 a new headache consumer advocate Ralph Nader. 0:01:03.431 --> 0:01:06.591 Homestead Air Force Base has become all things to all people. 0:01:06.751 --> 0:01:10.671 Gore had a choice to make, and he decided to 0:01:10.711 --> 0:01:12.911 avoid the choice. It was Waffle City. 0:01:13.671 --> 0:01:16.111 I asked for your help and your vote because I 0:01:16.151 --> 0:01:18.991 want to fight for you. God, bless you, Florida. 0:01:19.031 --> 0:01:19.511 Thank you. 0:01:27.551 --> 0:01:30.031 Murray Adelman was just out of college and working a 0:01:30.031 --> 0:01:32.271 summer job at the US Census Bureau when he met 0:01:32.311 --> 0:01:36.751 an older statistician named Warren Mitofski. It was nineteen sixty six. 0:01:37.711 --> 0:01:40.671 The following year, Mitofsky got an exciting new job with 0:01:40.711 --> 0:01:43.591 the CBS News elections desk, and he started trying to 0:01:43.591 --> 0:01:45.151 convince Aidelman to join him there. 0:01:45.391 --> 0:01:47.351 He knew I was one of the sharper things at 0:01:47.351 --> 0:01:50.231 the bureau at the time, and so he kept after 0:01:50.271 --> 0:01:52.431 me to come to New York and I didn't want to. 0:01:52.951 --> 0:01:56.031 If Adelman were to follow Mitofsky to CBS News, he 0:01:56.071 --> 0:01:58.671 would be entering a TV news tradition dating back to 0:01:58.711 --> 0:02:02.911 the fifties, when the three broadcast news networks NBC, ABC 0:02:03.031 --> 0:02:06.791 and CBS started using computers to cover elections. 0:02:06.431 --> 0:02:10.791 And the computers shows a candidate victory. Gentlemen, let me 0:02:10.831 --> 0:02:13.111 tell you this, if they ever teeth this machine to 0:02:13.231 --> 0:02:17.191 talk you and I while we're out of business war in. 0:02:17.231 --> 0:02:20.391 Matovski's job at CBS News was to best these machines. 0:02:20.831 --> 0:02:23.191 His mission was to build a new statistical model that 0:02:23.231 --> 0:02:26.391 could more accurately and more quickly predict election results while 0:02:26.511 --> 0:02:29.871 vote totals were still coming in on election night. Despite 0:02:29.911 --> 0:02:32.791 his initial reluctance to move to New York City, Murray 0:02:32.791 --> 0:02:36.031 Adelman saw the appeal of the work and accepted Matovsky's invitation. 0:02:36.311 --> 0:02:40.751 CBS News coverage of election night, reporting from election headquarters 0:02:40.791 --> 0:02:42.590 correspondent Water Crunkuites. 0:02:43.471 --> 0:02:46.151 The last election Adelman watched as a civilian was in 0:02:46.231 --> 0:02:48.831 nineteen sixty six, and. 0:02:48.791 --> 0:02:52.111 We were watching the returns and I was saying, that 0:02:52.271 --> 0:02:53.951 was a cool job. You know, you get to actually 0:02:54.191 --> 0:02:56.591 predict something and you get the result like right away. 0:02:57.391 --> 0:02:59.151 You know, I thought it was really cool. 0:03:01.031 --> 0:03:03.710 You'll see figures changing rapidly on these boards and on 0:03:03.831 --> 0:03:06.391 these banks behind me, the mistakes, and we hope there 0:03:06.431 --> 0:03:07.951 won't be any come from us. 0:03:08.071 --> 0:03:13.791 We are going to have what we call for Adelman. 0:03:11.791 --> 0:03:14.351 Worked at CBS News as a consultant while attending graduate 0:03:14.351 --> 0:03:17.711 school at the University of Chicago. During this time, he 0:03:17.751 --> 0:03:20.231 co founded the Chicago chapter of the Gay Liberation Front, 0:03:20.591 --> 0:03:23.751 a radical civil rights organization that formed after the Stonewall riots. 0:03:24.231 --> 0:03:27.031 I had this button that said Gay Revolutionary. I was 0:03:27.071 --> 0:03:29.711 worrying that at CBS, and I remember some producer in 0:03:29.711 --> 0:03:32.711 the office sort of looked at it and she said, oh, 0:03:32.911 --> 0:03:35.791 as we were getting in the elevator. And so a 0:03:35.831 --> 0:03:39.271 lot of those years at CBS and in my professional 0:03:39.311 --> 0:03:41.711 life was making space for who I was. 0:03:42.311 --> 0:03:45.311 Starting in nineteen sixty eight, Adelman and Metowski spent every 0:03:45.311 --> 0:03:48.391 presidential election working side by side keeping track of the 0:03:48.391 --> 0:03:50.991 most important races in the map and analyzing the returns 0:03:50.991 --> 0:03:54.031 as they rolled in. Their most important task was to 0:03:54.031 --> 0:03:56.151 make predictions about who was going to win what race 0:03:56.351 --> 0:03:57.791 once every ballot had been counted. 0:03:57.951 --> 0:04:00.391 We do so badly want to be accurate. 0:04:00.471 --> 0:04:01.351 We want you to have. 0:04:01.351 --> 0:04:05.191 Accurate returns, fast returns put forward to you in a clear. 0:04:05.071 --> 0:04:05.791 Concise way. 0:04:06.071 --> 0:04:08.711 Network executives thought of election night as an opportunity to 0:04:08.711 --> 0:04:12.671 secure prestige, bragging rights, and most importantly, audience share. 0:04:12.951 --> 0:04:14.991 You mad too to do a little dial twas thing 0:04:15.031 --> 0:04:17.671 to see how our competitors are doing. But we hope 0:04:17.711 --> 0:04:18.551 and trust fee. 0:04:18.351 --> 0:04:18.830 Will be back. 0:04:20.551 --> 0:04:23.751 Throughout the seventies and eighties, the three networks invested heavily 0:04:23.751 --> 0:04:27.031 in their election night coverage, with CBS News eager to 0:04:27.111 --> 0:04:30.631 gain any advantage over its competitors. Mitofsky and Aedelman were 0:04:30.631 --> 0:04:33.390 given the resources to create a new analytical method that 0:04:33.391 --> 0:04:37.710 would end up transforming election coverage. It was called exit 0:04:37.751 --> 0:04:38.551 polling an. 0:04:38.551 --> 0:04:41.991 Exit polls we call it a poll of voters as 0:04:42.031 --> 0:04:42.630 they left. 0:04:42.471 --> 0:04:46.231 The polling places across the country and randomly selected precincts. 0:04:47.271 --> 0:04:49.551 Exit polls were inspired by a marketing technique used in 0:04:49.591 --> 0:04:52.630 the film industry, where audiences would be shown movies early 0:04:52.951 --> 0:04:54.831 in an interview about what they liked and didn't like. 0:04:55.991 --> 0:04:58.751 Vitovsky and Aightlman adapted that approach to voting by sending 0:04:58.791 --> 0:05:01.671 an army of temp workers contracted by CBS to sample 0:05:01.711 --> 0:05:05.751 precincts around the country. The workers would stand around outside 0:05:05.791 --> 0:05:09.271 polling places and approach people who had just voted. Then 0:05:09.271 --> 0:05:10.911 they would ask them as series of questions. 0:05:11.191 --> 0:05:13.831 I could tell you like gender, tell you men voted 0:05:13.831 --> 0:05:17.711 this way, women voted this way. By race. It describes 0:05:17.751 --> 0:05:21.191 the electrode. It gives you a whole snapshot of the electrode. 0:05:21.631 --> 0:05:24.791 As the exit poll survey results came in, analysts working 0:05:24.871 --> 0:05:27.351 under Matovsky and Ailmen would mind them for insights and 0:05:27.391 --> 0:05:30.471 de voter behavior. Those insights would then be passed on 0:05:30.511 --> 0:05:33.270 to CBS News anchors, who would turn them into fine 0:05:33.311 --> 0:05:35.830 grained analysis about what the election results were showing. 0:05:35.951 --> 0:05:37.950 The single hotest thing our poll trained up is the 0:05:37.951 --> 0:05:40.991 difference between the sections Carter and Reagan are dead even 0:05:41.031 --> 0:05:41.671 among women. 0:05:42.711 --> 0:05:45.630 CBS News was initially the only network using exit polls 0:05:45.671 --> 0:05:48.591 to enrich their election coverage, but soon enough the others 0:05:48.591 --> 0:05:53.231 started doing it too. Then, in nineteen eighty, NBC realized 0:05:53.231 --> 0:05:55.150 that they could predict the winner of a race based 0:05:55.151 --> 0:05:58.390 exclusively on exit polls, meaning they wouldn't even have to 0:05:58.391 --> 0:06:00.351 wait for the real vote totals to come in before 0:06:00.351 --> 0:06:01.151 making a projection. 0:06:01.831 --> 0:06:05.591 The decision eighty NBC News reports the results of our 0:06:05.711 --> 0:06:06.711 national election. 0:06:07.951 --> 0:06:12.070 That November. NBC accurately called eleven states based solely on 0:06:12.111 --> 0:06:14.751 exit polls instead of vote totals. It was a bold 0:06:14.791 --> 0:06:17.190 strategy that allowed the network to all but declare the 0:06:17.231 --> 0:06:20.431 election for Ronald Reagan in their first minute of coverage. 0:06:20.831 --> 0:06:23.631 Good evening, and welcome to NBC News's coverage of the 0:06:23.711 --> 0:06:27.871 nineteen eighty presidential elections. We have been polling around the 0:06:27.911 --> 0:06:31.150 country and what we're learning in the key states makes 0:06:31.231 --> 0:06:35.431 us believe that Ronald Reagan will win a very substantial 0:06:35.591 --> 0:06:37.991 victory tonight, very substantial. 0:06:38.471 --> 0:06:42.111 The general principle of the networks is that they do 0:06:42.231 --> 0:06:47.871 not call a state unless they have data in from voters. 0:06:48.751 --> 0:06:50.911 That they have some after the polls close, they have 0:06:51.231 --> 0:06:55.471 real data in, and so NBC used the exit poll 0:06:55.511 --> 0:06:59.991 as their real data, and so races that closed at 0:06:59.991 --> 0:07:02.831 eight o'clock they could call on the basis of the 0:07:02.871 --> 0:07:04.471 exit poll. 0:07:04.591 --> 0:07:07.311 By incorporating exit poll data into their prediction model so 0:07:07.351 --> 0:07:11.471 aggressively NBC was able to trounce both ABC and CBS. 0:07:11.871 --> 0:07:13.951 The call came so early in the night that even 0:07:13.951 --> 0:07:17.391 Reagan's Vice President elect, George HW Bush was hesitant to 0:07:17.431 --> 0:07:18.191 declare victory. 0:07:18.671 --> 0:07:21.391 I did hear the NBC report. I think it's too 0:07:21.471 --> 0:07:25.791 early that I must say. It's more encouraging to have 0:07:25.911 --> 0:07:29.391 these so called exit polls speaking favorably. 0:07:30.471 --> 0:07:33.671 After NBC's big night in nineteen eighty, all the networks 0:07:33.671 --> 0:07:37.271 started using exit polls to do projections. Election night coverage 0:07:37.271 --> 0:07:39.231 was an arms race, and no one could afford to 0:07:39.231 --> 0:07:42.831 get left behind. The problem was that conducting exit polls 0:07:42.951 --> 0:07:45.991 nationwide cost a ton of money, and by the nineteen 0:07:46.071 --> 0:07:48.791 ninety mid terms, budget conscious news executives were willing to 0:07:48.791 --> 0:07:53.671 try something different and cheaper. Instead of each network spending 0:07:53.711 --> 0:07:57.711 millions of dollars running its own separate exit polling operation, NBC, 0:07:58.071 --> 0:08:01.591 ABC and CBS, along with newcomers CNN, decided to come 0:08:01.591 --> 0:08:05.471 together and create a jointly owned exit polling consortium. The 0:08:05.511 --> 0:08:07.911 consortion would come to be known as Voter News Service 0:08:08.111 --> 0:08:11.671 or VNS for short. Warren Mitofsky was put in charge 0:08:11.791 --> 0:08:15.631 and Murray Adelman became his number two. Together, they oversaw 0:08:15.711 --> 0:08:19.191 one stop shop for election night coverage, conducting exit polls, 0:08:19.471 --> 0:08:22.831 keeping track of incoming vote tallies, analyzing the data using 0:08:22.831 --> 0:08:27.311 the proprietary model, and calling winners and losers. In exchange 0:08:27.311 --> 0:08:30.431 for funding VNS, the news networks received a live feed 0:08:30.431 --> 0:08:33.550 of Mitofsky and Adelman's conclusions, and the anchors would narrate 0:08:33.591 --> 0:08:34.631 the election accordingly. 0:08:35.151 --> 0:08:39.471 Warren and I were calling the races. We would enter 0:08:39.511 --> 0:08:42.871 it into the system. The networks would all see it, 0:08:43.070 --> 0:08:45.271 and they could then do whatever they wanted with it. 0:08:45.871 --> 0:08:48.670 We're going to make another projection. Now we project that 0:08:48.710 --> 0:08:50.391 Bill Clinton is going to be the next president of 0:08:50.391 --> 0:08:52.070 the United States. We projected Ohio. 0:08:52.271 --> 0:08:54.871 The advent of VNS did not kill off election night 0:08:54.910 --> 0:08:59.631 competition between the networks. It just became less expensive. Yes, 0:08:59.670 --> 0:09:02.070 the networks were now all working off the same VNS 0:09:02.190 --> 0:09:05.631 data and the same VNS projection model, but they could 0:09:05.631 --> 0:09:07.551 make their own choices about when it was safe to 0:09:07.590 --> 0:09:11.591 call a race. Under the VNS system, each news organization 0:09:11.710 --> 0:09:14.071 was free to set its own standards for how likely 0:09:14.111 --> 0:09:16.990 someone's victory needed to be before a winner could be declared. 0:09:17.631 --> 0:09:21.470 You have a statistical model. All right, and the model says, well, 0:09:21.871 --> 0:09:25.231 you might be wrong one out of two hundred close races. Well, 0:09:25.391 --> 0:09:28.230 if you're willing to say I'll be wrong two out 0:09:28.231 --> 0:09:31.830 of two hundred, you have an edge. And so there's 0:09:31.950 --> 0:09:35.030 real benefits to just being faster and a little riskier, 0:09:35.030 --> 0:09:37.631 because the chance of it catching up with you are very, 0:09:37.751 --> 0:09:39.110 very small. 0:09:39.190 --> 0:09:42.271 As the nineties wore on, the network started calling races 0:09:42.310 --> 0:09:45.631 too early for Adelman's taste. The drive to outpace the 0:09:45.631 --> 0:09:48.310 competition seemed to be overpowering the need to be sure 0:09:48.670 --> 0:09:51.470 and the need to be right. Adelman feared that at 0:09:51.471 --> 0:09:54.790 some point the networks would get overconfident with an important race. 0:09:55.910 --> 0:09:59.711 Then on November seventh, two thousand, it happened. 0:10:00.351 --> 0:10:03.151 Good grief, eleven thousand votes. It's less than a half 0:10:03.151 --> 0:10:07.391 a point. That would be something if the network's managed 0:10:07.430 --> 0:10:09.310 to blow it twice in one night. 0:10:10.231 --> 0:10:13.431 Speak for yourself, Adelman told me he would come to 0:10:13.471 --> 0:10:17.670 divide his career into two distinct eras before and after. 0:10:17.830 --> 0:10:18.430 Two thousand. 0:10:18.950 --> 0:10:22.070 You've asked me to remember the most miserable day of 0:10:22.111 --> 0:10:22.511 my life. 0:10:22.550 --> 0:10:23.591 You know we're not there yet. 0:10:23.631 --> 0:10:24.030 I don't. 0:10:24.991 --> 0:10:29.470 I'm Leon Nafok from Prolog Projects and Pushkin industries. This 0:10:29.751 --> 0:10:32.831 is fiasco bush v Gore. 0:10:32.910 --> 0:10:35.511 Some strange, unusual things happening in flog. 0:10:35.590 --> 0:10:38.151 Well, the networks give us, the networks take it away. 0:10:38.391 --> 0:10:40.271 All the networks and all the pollsters are going to 0:10:40.271 --> 0:10:41.471 get lots of egg on their faith. 0:10:41.550 --> 0:10:42.991 I've just never seen anything like this. 0:10:43.070 --> 0:10:43.751 I'm at a loss. 0:10:44.271 --> 0:10:49.030 Episode two, Real Numbers. What went on behind the scenes 0:10:49.070 --> 0:10:53.111 on Election Night two thousand as statisticians, political operatives, and 0:10:53.151 --> 0:10:57.351 TV anchors walked the line between reporting the news, predicting 0:10:57.351 --> 0:11:04.431 the future, and shaping reality. There were a lot of 0:11:04.430 --> 0:11:06.391 states where the two thousand election was going to be 0:11:06.471 --> 0:11:09.710 extremely close. Poles have been tight all over the country 0:11:09.751 --> 0:11:11.871 from mid months, and they were only getting tighter as 0:11:11.910 --> 0:11:12.910 election day drew near. 0:11:13.310 --> 0:11:15.471 The race is as hot and tight as a too 0:11:15.471 --> 0:11:18.311 small bathing suit on a too long car ride back from. 0:11:18.190 --> 0:11:20.951 The beach, and all the polls indicate this remains a 0:11:21.030 --> 0:11:22.670 race too close to call. 0:11:22.830 --> 0:11:24.871 It wasn't just the presidency that hung in the balance. 0:11:25.511 --> 0:11:27.710 The House and the Senate were also up for grabs, 0:11:27.950 --> 0:11:29.910 and many of those races looked close to. 0:11:30.310 --> 0:11:33.030 This is the first time since nineteen forty eight, when 0:11:33.111 --> 0:11:35.511 control of the White House, the Senate and the House 0:11:35.511 --> 0:11:38.790 of Representatives all have been legitimately up for grabs on 0:11:38.830 --> 0:11:40.231 election day Republic. 0:11:40.310 --> 0:11:43.351 A week before election day, Murray Adelman decided it would 0:11:43.351 --> 0:11:45.951 be worth sending out a gentle warning to all the networks, 0:11:46.310 --> 0:11:49.230 including Fox News, which had joined Venness after its founding 0:11:49.271 --> 0:11:52.431 in nineteen ninety six. Adelman urged the networks to be 0:11:52.471 --> 0:11:55.350 careful about calling races when the margin between two candidates 0:11:55.430 --> 0:11:58.751 was half a percentage point or less. Adelman reminded the 0:11:58.751 --> 0:12:01.350 networks that it was always possible for final vote totals 0:12:01.471 --> 0:12:03.231 to shift slightly from where they stood at the end 0:12:03.231 --> 0:12:06.671 of the night. It happened with every election. Ballots would 0:12:06.670 --> 0:12:09.471 get lost or found, Counting errors would be discovered, and 0:12:09.511 --> 0:12:09.910 so on. 0:12:10.151 --> 0:12:11.870 There's a lot of ways you can have errors in 0:12:11.910 --> 0:12:14.431 the vote code. The precincts have to count it right. 0:12:14.670 --> 0:12:16.631 Then they have to get it to the county. The 0:12:16.631 --> 0:12:19.351 county has to count it right. We have people there 0:12:20.030 --> 0:12:22.511 getting it as it's being added up. They have to 0:12:22.550 --> 0:12:24.831 report it right. The person has to enter it right. 0:12:25.310 --> 0:12:26.830 There's a lot of steps for error. 0:12:27.751 --> 0:12:31.271 In his memo, Adelman gave historical examples of races where 0:12:31.271 --> 0:12:33.471 the final vote total had shifted by half a percentage 0:12:33.511 --> 0:12:36.790 point or more, even after most voting precincts had submitted 0:12:36.790 --> 0:12:40.511 their tallies. His point was that with very close races, 0:12:40.590 --> 0:12:42.631 it was better to wait and get it right than 0:12:42.670 --> 0:12:43.910 to be first and get it wrong. 0:12:44.190 --> 0:12:46.830 So that's what I sent out to everybody. I never 0:12:46.871 --> 0:12:50.271 said don't call them. That wasn't my job. That would 0:12:50.271 --> 0:12:52.631 have got me grief. I just said, just be very careful. 0:12:53.271 --> 0:12:57.950 It was just a warning submitted for the network's consideration. Remember, 0:12:57.991 --> 0:13:01.391 the networks owned vns. They didn't have to follow Aedelman's advice. 0:13:02.111 --> 0:13:04.910 Aside from sounding the alarm, there wasn't really anything else 0:13:04.910 --> 0:13:11.591 you could do. What happened next after the break. 0:13:18.991 --> 0:13:22.950 Election day, the day to choose a new president for 0:13:23.151 --> 0:13:25.271 a new censure as. 0:13:25.190 --> 0:13:29.431 Voting continues literally at this hour, the candidates with the 0:13:29.471 --> 0:13:32.071 major parties are right now at their home bases in 0:13:32.151 --> 0:13:35.430 Tennessee and in Texas. They are waiting for the election 0:13:35.550 --> 0:13:36.631 results to roll in. 0:13:37.070 --> 0:13:40.110 On the afternoon of election day, George W. Bush was 0:13:40.111 --> 0:13:42.511 in Austin working out at a gym at the University 0:13:42.550 --> 0:13:44.751 of Texas when he got a call from his chief 0:13:44.751 --> 0:13:48.550 political advisor, Karl Rove. Rove was calling to brief his 0:13:48.670 --> 0:13:52.511 candidate on the campaign's first wave of internal polls. Bush 0:13:52.550 --> 0:13:54.790 did not like what he heard, and he confessed to 0:13:54.871 --> 0:13:57.431 Rove that he could sense defeat in the air, what 0:13:57.550 --> 0:14:01.991 he called the smell. Bush's campaign trajectory up to that 0:14:02.030 --> 0:14:04.391 point had been jagged. He had started off with a 0:14:04.391 --> 0:14:07.991 comfortable advantage over Gore, then fell behind, then vaulted ahead 0:14:07.991 --> 0:14:11.790 again to a small lead going into November. Finally, a 0:14:11.790 --> 0:14:15.110 few days before the election, the local Fox affiliate in Portland, 0:14:15.151 --> 0:14:17.830 Maine reported that Bush had been arrested for drunk driving 0:14:17.871 --> 0:14:19.031 in nineteen seventy six. 0:14:19.391 --> 0:14:21.710 Bush swept across the battleground states. 0:14:21.391 --> 0:14:24.831 Of the Midwest today, competing with front page stories about 0:14:24.830 --> 0:14:25.471 his arrest. 0:14:25.871 --> 0:14:28.471 Obviously, there's a report out tonight that twenty four years ago, 0:14:29.151 --> 0:14:32.271 I was apprehended in chenny Buckport, Maine for a DUI. 0:14:32.590 --> 0:14:33.631 I'm not proud of that. 0:14:34.151 --> 0:14:36.231 I find interesting that four or five days before the 0:14:36.271 --> 0:14:37.710 election is coming to the surface. 0:14:38.631 --> 0:14:41.511 On election night, as polls around the country started to close, 0:14:41.951 --> 0:14:44.511 Bush surrounded himself with his family to watch the returns 0:14:44.511 --> 0:14:46.791 on TV from a suite in the Four Seasons Hotel 0:14:46.871 --> 0:14:50.471 in downtown Austin. In addition to his wife Laura, his 0:14:50.511 --> 0:14:54.230 mother Barbara, his sisters, and his daughters. Bush was joined 0:14:54.231 --> 0:14:56.830 by his father, the former president, and his brother Jeb, 0:14:56.911 --> 0:14:59.951 the governor of Florida. George Bush had watched both of 0:14:59.991 --> 0:15:02.271 them lose big elections in the past, and as his 0:15:02.351 --> 0:15:05.631 campaign wound down to its final hours, the contest looked 0:15:05.631 --> 0:15:08.431 so excruciatingly close that he had no idea whether they 0:15:08.431 --> 0:15:10.271 were about to see the same. Thing happened to him. 0:15:10.271 --> 0:15:13.471 It's the closest election in a generation that we're going 0:15:13.511 --> 0:15:15.710 to see in the course of this evening, whether in 0:15:15.751 --> 0:15:18.151 fact it will live up to its billings. 0:15:18.151 --> 0:15:20.431 If you've ever longed for those nights when people waited 0:15:20.511 --> 0:15:22.511 late to find out who their leader was, pull up 0:15:22.551 --> 0:15:23.750 a chair, this may be it. 0:15:24.431 --> 0:15:26.911 By this point, Bush and his family had migrated to 0:15:26.951 --> 0:15:30.830 the Shoreline Grill, a restaurant near the Four Seasons. There, 0:15:30.871 --> 0:15:33.791 in a private dining room, Bush watched the news. A 0:15:33.791 --> 0:15:37.351 little before seven o'clock Central time, NBC's decision desk made 0:15:37.351 --> 0:15:38.710 a deeply disappointing call. 0:15:39.071 --> 0:15:42.031 We're going to now project an important win for Vice 0:15:42.071 --> 0:15:45.151 President Al Gore. NBC News projects that he wins the 0:15:45.191 --> 0:15:48.551 twenty five electoral votes in the state of Florida. It 0:15:48.590 --> 0:15:51.431 turns out that Governor Jeb Bush was not his brother's keeper. 0:15:51.751 --> 0:15:54.271 Bush was once again hit with the smell of defeat. 0:15:55.271 --> 0:15:58.271 Without Florida's twenty five electoral votes, his path to victory 0:15:58.351 --> 0:15:59.230 was painfully narrow. 0:15:59.351 --> 0:16:01.710 The top advisors are really crunching the numbers. 0:16:01.751 --> 0:16:01.951 Now. 0:16:02.311 --> 0:16:03.751 Florida is very important. 0:16:03.830 --> 0:16:06.751 It is very, very dicey for George W. Bush to 0:16:06.830 --> 0:16:08.911 win this election without Florida. 0:16:09.031 --> 0:16:10.951 In order to stop Gore from getting to two hundred 0:16:10.951 --> 0:16:13.470 and seventy votes in the electoral College, Bush would have 0:16:13.551 --> 0:16:18.830 to win Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Michigan, an ambitious and unrealistic trifecta. 0:16:18.551 --> 0:16:19.590 Looking tough for Bush. 0:16:19.710 --> 0:16:22.031 If al Gore wins Pennsylvania in New Hampshire, then he 0:16:22.071 --> 0:16:24.031 really only has to pick up one more state. 0:16:24.511 --> 0:16:29.271 Bush stood stonefaced taking it in. His brother Jeb might 0:16:29.271 --> 0:16:32.311 have felt even worse. Jeb Bush was the governor of 0:16:32.311 --> 0:16:36.191 Florida for practically the entire campaign. It was assumed that 0:16:36.231 --> 0:16:39.111 he would help deliver the state to the Bush Chainey ticket. 0:16:39.710 --> 0:16:42.951 When all the networks, including Fox News, confirmed that Florida 0:16:42.991 --> 0:16:46.351 was going for Gore, Jeb hugged George and said sorry, brother, 0:16:46.830 --> 0:16:50.311 before leaving the restaurant. According to some reports, he had 0:16:50.311 --> 0:16:51.111 tears in his eyes. 0:16:51.351 --> 0:16:53.191 I think the results in Florida have got to be 0:16:53.191 --> 0:16:56.311 a bittersweet for the Bush family. Of course, the brother 0:16:56.431 --> 0:16:59.391 of the governor sitting governor in Florida, that can't be 0:16:59.431 --> 0:17:00.271 a happy one. 0:17:00.111 --> 0:17:01.351 For the Bush family. 0:17:01.590 --> 0:17:04.271 As the Bushes retreated to the Governor's mansion, the networks 0:17:04.311 --> 0:17:08.871 continued delivering unwelcome news. First Michigan and Illinois went blue, 0:17:09.111 --> 0:17:10.191 then Pennsylvania. 0:17:10.471 --> 0:17:12.951 We now projected Pennsylvania. In fact, he is going to 0:17:12.991 --> 0:17:15.951 go to mister Gore, so that gives him the Big three. 0:17:15.991 --> 0:17:18.630 That gives him Florida and Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those were 0:17:18.630 --> 0:17:20.991 the toughest battleground states of the year, and ABC News 0:17:21.071 --> 0:17:21.711 now projects. 0:17:21.751 --> 0:17:24.190 As the news came in, as Jeb Bush called his 0:17:24.271 --> 0:17:27.390 cousin John Ellis in New York, this was not merely 0:17:27.431 --> 0:17:30.110 a family check in. Ellis ran the decision desk at 0:17:30.110 --> 0:17:32.630 Fox News, and he had been in regular communication with 0:17:32.671 --> 0:17:35.551 the Bush family throughout the night. As Ellis looked at 0:17:35.551 --> 0:17:38.151 the Florida numbers being pumped into Fox's computers by Murray 0:17:38.191 --> 0:17:41.111 Adelman and VNS, he told his cousin Jeb that all 0:17:41.150 --> 0:17:47.351 he saw was a screen full of Gore. Murray Adelman 0:17:47.431 --> 0:17:49.430 and the rest of the VNS team were working out 0:17:49.471 --> 0:17:51.630 of temporary office space at the World Trade Center in 0:17:51.671 --> 0:17:56.071 Manhattan when NBC called Florida for Gore. Adelman looked at 0:17:56.071 --> 0:17:57.911 the numbers to see if he agreed with the projection. 0:17:59.110 --> 0:18:02.150 After comparing VNS exit polls and incoming vote totals to 0:18:02.231 --> 0:18:05.870 data on passed elections, Adelman concluded that the Florida call 0:18:06.031 --> 0:18:09.271 was good. Though only four percent of the state's votes 0:18:09.271 --> 0:18:11.911 have encountered, this was not a case of the networks 0:18:11.951 --> 0:18:14.551 declaring a winner too quickly out of an unhealthy sense 0:18:14.551 --> 0:18:18.430 of competition. The VNS model clearly showed that Gore was 0:18:18.471 --> 0:18:18.991 going to win. 0:18:20.231 --> 0:18:22.791 I mean it was it looked really, really solid. It 0:18:22.830 --> 0:18:26.910 was beyond a maybe, it was really solid, and so 0:18:27.271 --> 0:18:30.190 I called it at seven fifty two PM, which I 0:18:30.271 --> 0:18:33.711 called the pinnacle of my career. That was it was 0:18:33.751 --> 0:18:35.190 all downhill after that moment. 0:18:43.150 --> 0:18:46.190 On any given election day, the two campaigns battling for 0:18:46.231 --> 0:18:50.830 the presidency revolve around two distinct centers of gravity. One 0:18:50.911 --> 0:18:53.630 is composed of the candidate and his inner circle. The 0:18:53.711 --> 0:18:56.910 other is a rapid response team staffed by political operatives, 0:18:57.110 --> 0:19:01.511 polsters and campaign advisors. Their job is to gather information 0:19:01.551 --> 0:19:03.791 about the race all through the day and night and 0:19:03.870 --> 0:19:07.791 fight for any potential advantage they can find. Bush's rapid 0:19:07.830 --> 0:19:10.031 response team was operating out of an office belonging to 0:19:10.271 --> 0:19:14.590 Carl Rove. Stuart Stevens, a media consultant to Bush, spent 0:19:14.630 --> 0:19:17.471 most of his evening in Rove's orbit worrying about the returns. 0:19:17.951 --> 0:19:20.271 It was really tense, and there are a lot of 0:19:20.350 --> 0:19:23.390 highs and lows, you know. The worst point was when 0:19:23.511 --> 0:19:25.670 they called Florida for Gore. 0:19:26.630 --> 0:19:29.431 But if the Bush team ever wallowed in despair over Florida, 0:19:29.830 --> 0:19:33.871 they moved on quickly to indignation and outrage. For one thing, 0:19:33.911 --> 0:19:35.751 they thought the networks were not giving enough weight to 0:19:35.751 --> 0:19:40.231 absentee ballots, which the Bush campaign believed would favor them. Also, 0:19:40.870 --> 0:19:43.590 NBC had called Florida around ten minutes before poles had 0:19:43.590 --> 0:19:45.830 closed and the part of the state known as the Panhandle. 0:19:46.751 --> 0:19:49.751 Unlike the rest of Florida, the Panhandle was on Central Time, 0:19:50.150 --> 0:19:53.510 and it just so happened to be heavily Republican. Stuart 0:19:53.511 --> 0:19:55.910 Stephens thought that by calling Florida for Gore before the 0:19:55.951 --> 0:19:58.910 polls and the Panhandle had closed, the media was robbing 0:19:58.951 --> 0:20:00.910 Bush of an unknowable number of votes. 0:20:01.231 --> 0:20:04.591 You never can calculate what this means. But if you're 0:20:04.590 --> 0:20:07.831 headed to the polls to vote in Florida for your 0:20:07.911 --> 0:20:09.951 candidate and you hear on the radio that your canad 0:20:10.071 --> 0:20:14.431 it's already lost Florida, it's not. I'm sorry to think 0:20:14.511 --> 0:20:16.831 that you might turn around and go home because you're 0:20:16.870 --> 0:20:17.751 both not going to matter. 0:20:18.390 --> 0:20:21.630 There was something else bothering the Bush operatives too. According 0:20:21.671 --> 0:20:24.110 to their internal polling numbers which they got from campaign 0:20:24.191 --> 0:20:26.470