1 00:00:16,311 --> 00:00:23,191 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hey Leon here, Before we get to this episode, 2 00:00:23,431 --> 00:00:25,191 Speaker 1: I want to let you know that you can binge 3 00:00:25,231 --> 00:00:28,631 Speaker 1: the entire season of Fiasco Bush v goor right now 4 00:00:28,791 --> 00:00:33,071 Speaker 1: ad free by becoming a Pushkin Plus subscriber. Sign up 5 00:00:33,111 --> 00:00:36,271 Speaker 1: for Pushkin Plus on the Fiasco Apple Podcast show page, 6 00:00:36,871 --> 00:00:44,190 Speaker 1: or visit Pushkin dot fm slash Plus. Now onto the episode. 7 00:00:44,790 --> 00:00:46,870 Speaker 1: Previously on Fiasco. 8 00:00:48,671 --> 00:00:51,230 Speaker 2: The Vice President step elbows deep into the La and 9 00:00:51,311 --> 00:00:52,391 Speaker 2: Gonzales controversy. 10 00:00:52,431 --> 00:00:54,151 Speaker 3: I used to be a Democrat at the time over 11 00:00:54,151 --> 00:00:55,111 Speaker 3: the lean Gonzalez. 12 00:00:55,151 --> 00:00:56,591 Speaker 4: He was skilled to by association. 13 00:00:57,191 --> 00:01:00,431 Speaker 5: Suddenly it's a two front war against George Bush and 14 00:01:00,551 --> 00:01:03,311 Speaker 5: a new headache consumer advocate Ralph Nader. 15 00:01:03,431 --> 00:01:06,591 Speaker 6: Homestead Air Force Base has become all things to all people. 16 00:01:06,751 --> 00:01:10,671 Speaker 4: Gore had a choice to make, and he decided to 17 00:01:10,711 --> 00:01:12,911 Speaker 4: avoid the choice. It was Waffle City. 18 00:01:13,671 --> 00:01:16,111 Speaker 7: I asked for your help and your vote because I 19 00:01:16,151 --> 00:01:18,991 Speaker 7: want to fight for you. God, bless you, Florida. 20 00:01:19,031 --> 00:01:19,511 Speaker 8: Thank you. 21 00:01:27,551 --> 00:01:30,031 Speaker 1: Murray Adelman was just out of college and working a 22 00:01:30,031 --> 00:01:32,271 Speaker 1: summer job at the US Census Bureau when he met 23 00:01:32,311 --> 00:01:36,751 Speaker 1: an older statistician named Warren Mitofski. It was nineteen sixty six. 24 00:01:37,711 --> 00:01:40,671 Speaker 1: The following year, Mitofsky got an exciting new job with 25 00:01:40,711 --> 00:01:43,591 Speaker 1: the CBS News elections desk, and he started trying to 26 00:01:43,591 --> 00:01:45,151 Speaker 1: convince Aidelman to join him there. 27 00:01:45,391 --> 00:01:47,351 Speaker 4: He knew I was one of the sharper things at 28 00:01:47,351 --> 00:01:50,231 Speaker 4: the bureau at the time, and so he kept after 29 00:01:50,271 --> 00:01:52,431 Speaker 4: me to come to New York and I didn't want to. 30 00:01:52,951 --> 00:01:56,031 Speaker 1: If Adelman were to follow Mitofsky to CBS News, he 31 00:01:56,071 --> 00:01:58,671 Speaker 1: would be entering a TV news tradition dating back to 32 00:01:58,711 --> 00:02:02,911 Speaker 1: the fifties, when the three broadcast news networks NBC, ABC 33 00:02:03,031 --> 00:02:06,791 Speaker 1: and CBS started using computers to cover elections. 34 00:02:06,431 --> 00:02:10,791 Speaker 9: And the computers shows a candidate victory. Gentlemen, let me 35 00:02:10,831 --> 00:02:13,111 Speaker 9: tell you this, if they ever teeth this machine to 36 00:02:13,231 --> 00:02:17,191 Speaker 9: talk you and I while we're out of business war in. 37 00:02:17,231 --> 00:02:20,391 Speaker 1: Matovski's job at CBS News was to best these machines. 38 00:02:20,831 --> 00:02:23,191 Speaker 1: His mission was to build a new statistical model that 39 00:02:23,231 --> 00:02:26,391 Speaker 1: could more accurately and more quickly predict election results while 40 00:02:26,511 --> 00:02:29,871 Speaker 1: vote totals were still coming in on election night. Despite 41 00:02:29,911 --> 00:02:32,791 Speaker 1: his initial reluctance to move to New York City, Murray 42 00:02:32,791 --> 00:02:36,031 Speaker 1: Adelman saw the appeal of the work and accepted Matovsky's invitation. 43 00:02:36,311 --> 00:02:40,751 Speaker 9: CBS News coverage of election night, reporting from election headquarters 44 00:02:40,791 --> 00:02:42,590 Speaker 9: correspondent Water Crunkuites. 45 00:02:43,471 --> 00:02:46,151 Speaker 1: The last election Adelman watched as a civilian was in 46 00:02:46,231 --> 00:02:48,831 Speaker 1: nineteen sixty six, and. 47 00:02:48,791 --> 00:02:52,111 Speaker 4: We were watching the returns and I was saying, that 48 00:02:52,271 --> 00:02:53,951 Speaker 4: was a cool job. You know, you get to actually 49 00:02:54,191 --> 00:02:56,591 Speaker 4: predict something and you get the result like right away. 50 00:02:57,391 --> 00:02:59,151 Speaker 4: You know, I thought it was really cool. 51 00:03:01,031 --> 00:03:03,710 Speaker 2: You'll see figures changing rapidly on these boards and on 52 00:03:03,831 --> 00:03:06,391 Speaker 2: these banks behind me, the mistakes, and we hope there 53 00:03:06,431 --> 00:03:07,951 Speaker 2: won't be any come from us. 54 00:03:08,071 --> 00:03:13,791 Speaker 9: We are going to have what we call for Adelman. 55 00:03:11,791 --> 00:03:14,351 Speaker 1: Worked at CBS News as a consultant while attending graduate 56 00:03:14,351 --> 00:03:17,711 Speaker 1: school at the University of Chicago. During this time, he 57 00:03:17,751 --> 00:03:20,231 Speaker 1: co founded the Chicago chapter of the Gay Liberation Front, 58 00:03:20,591 --> 00:03:23,751 Speaker 1: a radical civil rights organization that formed after the Stonewall riots. 59 00:03:24,231 --> 00:03:27,031 Speaker 4: I had this button that said Gay Revolutionary. I was 60 00:03:27,071 --> 00:03:29,711 Speaker 4: worrying that at CBS, and I remember some producer in 61 00:03:29,711 --> 00:03:32,711 Speaker 4: the office sort of looked at it and she said, oh, 62 00:03:32,911 --> 00:03:35,791 Speaker 4: as we were getting in the elevator. And so a 63 00:03:35,831 --> 00:03:39,271 Speaker 4: lot of those years at CBS and in my professional 64 00:03:39,311 --> 00:03:41,711 Speaker 4: life was making space for who I was. 65 00:03:42,311 --> 00:03:45,311 Speaker 1: Starting in nineteen sixty eight, Adelman and Metowski spent every 66 00:03:45,311 --> 00:03:48,391 Speaker 1: presidential election working side by side keeping track of the 67 00:03:48,391 --> 00:03:50,991 Speaker 1: most important races in the map and analyzing the returns 68 00:03:50,991 --> 00:03:54,031 Speaker 1: as they rolled in. Their most important task was to 69 00:03:54,031 --> 00:03:56,151 Speaker 1: make predictions about who was going to win what race 70 00:03:56,351 --> 00:03:57,791 Speaker 1: once every ballot had been counted. 71 00:03:57,951 --> 00:04:00,391 Speaker 2: We do so badly want to be accurate. 72 00:04:00,471 --> 00:04:01,351 Speaker 7: We want you to have. 73 00:04:01,351 --> 00:04:05,191 Speaker 2: Accurate returns, fast returns put forward to you in a clear. 74 00:04:05,071 --> 00:04:05,791 Speaker 4: Concise way. 75 00:04:06,071 --> 00:04:08,711 Speaker 1: Network executives thought of election night as an opportunity to 76 00:04:08,711 --> 00:04:12,671 Speaker 1: secure prestige, bragging rights, and most importantly, audience share. 77 00:04:12,951 --> 00:04:14,991 Speaker 7: You mad too to do a little dial twas thing 78 00:04:15,031 --> 00:04:17,671 Speaker 7: to see how our competitors are doing. But we hope 79 00:04:17,711 --> 00:04:18,551 Speaker 7: and trust fee. 80 00:04:18,351 --> 00:04:18,830 Speaker 10: Will be back. 81 00:04:20,551 --> 00:04:23,751 Speaker 1: Throughout the seventies and eighties, the three networks invested heavily 82 00:04:23,751 --> 00:04:27,031 Speaker 1: in their election night coverage, with CBS News eager to 83 00:04:27,111 --> 00:04:30,631 Speaker 1: gain any advantage over its competitors. Mitofsky and Aedelman were 84 00:04:30,631 --> 00:04:33,390 Speaker 1: given the resources to create a new analytical method that 85 00:04:33,391 --> 00:04:37,710 Speaker 1: would end up transforming election coverage. It was called exit 86 00:04:37,751 --> 00:04:38,551 Speaker 1: polling an. 87 00:04:38,551 --> 00:04:41,991 Speaker 9: Exit polls we call it a poll of voters as 88 00:04:42,031 --> 00:04:42,630 Speaker 9: they left. 89 00:04:42,471 --> 00:04:46,231 Speaker 2: The polling places across the country and randomly selected precincts. 90 00:04:47,271 --> 00:04:49,551 Speaker 1: Exit polls were inspired by a marketing technique used in 91 00:04:49,591 --> 00:04:52,630 Speaker 1: the film industry, where audiences would be shown movies early 92 00:04:52,951 --> 00:04:54,831 Speaker 1: in an interview about what they liked and didn't like. 93 00:04:55,991 --> 00:04:58,751 Speaker 1: Vitovsky and Aightlman adapted that approach to voting by sending 94 00:04:58,791 --> 00:05:01,671 Speaker 1: an army of temp workers contracted by CBS to sample 95 00:05:01,711 --> 00:05:05,751 Speaker 1: precincts around the country. The workers would stand around outside 96 00:05:05,791 --> 00:05:09,271 Speaker 1: polling places and approach people who had just voted. Then 97 00:05:09,271 --> 00:05:10,911 Speaker 1: they would ask them as series of questions. 98 00:05:11,191 --> 00:05:13,831 Speaker 4: I could tell you like gender, tell you men voted 99 00:05:13,831 --> 00:05:17,711 Speaker 4: this way, women voted this way. By race. It describes 100 00:05:17,751 --> 00:05:21,191 Speaker 4: the electrode. It gives you a whole snapshot of the electrode. 101 00:05:21,631 --> 00:05:24,791 Speaker 1: As the exit poll survey results came in, analysts working 102 00:05:24,871 --> 00:05:27,351 Speaker 1: under Matovsky and Ailmen would mind them for insights and 103 00:05:27,391 --> 00:05:30,471 Speaker 1: de voter behavior. Those insights would then be passed on 104 00:05:30,511 --> 00:05:33,270 Speaker 1: to CBS News anchors, who would turn them into fine 105 00:05:33,311 --> 00:05:35,830 Speaker 1: grained analysis about what the election results were showing. 106 00:05:35,951 --> 00:05:37,950 Speaker 9: The single hotest thing our poll trained up is the 107 00:05:37,951 --> 00:05:40,991 Speaker 9: difference between the sections Carter and Reagan are dead even 108 00:05:41,031 --> 00:05:41,671 Speaker 9: among women. 109 00:05:42,711 --> 00:05:45,630 Speaker 1: CBS News was initially the only network using exit polls 110 00:05:45,671 --> 00:05:48,591 Speaker 1: to enrich their election coverage, but soon enough the others 111 00:05:48,591 --> 00:05:53,231 Speaker 1: started doing it too. Then, in nineteen eighty, NBC realized 112 00:05:53,231 --> 00:05:55,150 Speaker 1: that they could predict the winner of a race based 113 00:05:55,151 --> 00:05:58,390 Speaker 1: exclusively on exit polls, meaning they wouldn't even have to 114 00:05:58,391 --> 00:06:00,351 Speaker 1: wait for the real vote totals to come in before 115 00:06:00,351 --> 00:06:01,151 Speaker 1: making a projection. 116 00:06:01,831 --> 00:06:05,591 Speaker 7: The decision eighty NBC News reports the results of our 117 00:06:05,711 --> 00:06:06,711 Speaker 7: national election. 118 00:06:07,951 --> 00:06:12,070 Speaker 1: That November. NBC accurately called eleven states based solely on 119 00:06:12,111 --> 00:06:14,751 Speaker 1: exit polls instead of vote totals. It was a bold 120 00:06:14,791 --> 00:06:17,190 Speaker 1: strategy that allowed the network to all but declare the 121 00:06:17,231 --> 00:06:20,431 Speaker 1: election for Ronald Reagan in their first minute of coverage. 122 00:06:20,831 --> 00:06:23,631 Speaker 11: Good evening, and welcome to NBC News's coverage of the 123 00:06:23,711 --> 00:06:27,871 Speaker 11: nineteen eighty presidential elections. We have been polling around the 124 00:06:27,911 --> 00:06:31,150 Speaker 11: country and what we're learning in the key states makes 125 00:06:31,231 --> 00:06:35,431 Speaker 11: us believe that Ronald Reagan will win a very substantial 126 00:06:35,591 --> 00:06:37,991 Speaker 11: victory tonight, very substantial. 127 00:06:38,471 --> 00:06:42,111 Speaker 4: The general principle of the networks is that they do 128 00:06:42,231 --> 00:06:47,871 Speaker 4: not call a state unless they have data in from voters. 129 00:06:48,751 --> 00:06:50,911 Speaker 4: That they have some after the polls close, they have 130 00:06:51,231 --> 00:06:55,471 Speaker 4: real data in, and so NBC used the exit poll 131 00:06:55,511 --> 00:06:59,991 Speaker 4: as their real data, and so races that closed at 132 00:06:59,991 --> 00:07:02,831 Speaker 4: eight o'clock they could call on the basis of the 133 00:07:02,871 --> 00:07:04,471 Speaker 4: exit poll. 134 00:07:04,591 --> 00:07:07,311 Speaker 1: By incorporating exit poll data into their prediction model so 135 00:07:07,351 --> 00:07:11,471 Speaker 1: aggressively NBC was able to trounce both ABC and CBS. 136 00:07:11,871 --> 00:07:13,951 Speaker 1: The call came so early in the night that even 137 00:07:13,951 --> 00:07:17,391 Speaker 1: Reagan's Vice President elect, George HW Bush was hesitant to 138 00:07:17,431 --> 00:07:18,191 Speaker 1: declare victory. 139 00:07:18,671 --> 00:07:21,391 Speaker 8: I did hear the NBC report. I think it's too 140 00:07:21,471 --> 00:07:25,791 Speaker 8: early that I must say. It's more encouraging to have 141 00:07:25,911 --> 00:07:29,391 Speaker 8: these so called exit polls speaking favorably. 142 00:07:30,471 --> 00:07:33,671 Speaker 1: After NBC's big night in nineteen eighty, all the networks 143 00:07:33,671 --> 00:07:37,271 Speaker 1: started using exit polls to do projections. Election night coverage 144 00:07:37,271 --> 00:07:39,231 Speaker 1: was an arms race, and no one could afford to 145 00:07:39,231 --> 00:07:42,831 Speaker 1: get left behind. The problem was that conducting exit polls 146 00:07:42,951 --> 00:07:45,991 Speaker 1: nationwide cost a ton of money, and by the nineteen 147 00:07:46,071 --> 00:07:48,791 Speaker 1: ninety mid terms, budget conscious news executives were willing to 148 00:07:48,791 --> 00:07:53,671 Speaker 1: try something different and cheaper. Instead of each network spending 149 00:07:53,711 --> 00:07:57,711 Speaker 1: millions of dollars running its own separate exit polling operation, NBC, 150 00:07:58,071 --> 00:08:01,591 Speaker 1: ABC and CBS, along with newcomers CNN, decided to come 151 00:08:01,591 --> 00:08:05,471 Speaker 1: together and create a jointly owned exit polling consortium. The 152 00:08:05,511 --> 00:08:07,911 Speaker 1: consortion would come to be known as Voter News Service 153 00:08:08,111 --> 00:08:11,671 Speaker 1: or VNS for short. Warren Mitofsky was put in charge 154 00:08:11,791 --> 00:08:15,631 Speaker 1: and Murray Adelman became his number two. Together, they oversaw 155 00:08:15,711 --> 00:08:19,191 Speaker 1: one stop shop for election night coverage, conducting exit polls, 156 00:08:19,471 --> 00:08:22,831 Speaker 1: keeping track of incoming vote tallies, analyzing the data using 157 00:08:22,831 --> 00:08:27,311 Speaker 1: the proprietary model, and calling winners and losers. In exchange 158 00:08:27,311 --> 00:08:30,431 Speaker 1: for funding VNS, the news networks received a live feed 159 00:08:30,431 --> 00:08:33,550 Speaker 1: of Mitofsky and Adelman's conclusions, and the anchors would narrate 160 00:08:33,591 --> 00:08:34,631 Speaker 1: the election accordingly. 161 00:08:35,151 --> 00:08:39,471 Speaker 4: Warren and I were calling the races. We would enter 162 00:08:39,511 --> 00:08:42,871 Speaker 4: it into the system. The networks would all see it, 163 00:08:43,070 --> 00:08:45,271 Speaker 4: and they could then do whatever they wanted with it. 164 00:08:45,871 --> 00:08:48,670 Speaker 7: We're going to make another projection. Now we project that 165 00:08:48,710 --> 00:08:50,391 Speaker 7: Bill Clinton is going to be the next president of 166 00:08:50,391 --> 00:08:52,070 Speaker 7: the United States. We projected Ohio. 167 00:08:52,271 --> 00:08:54,871 Speaker 1: The advent of VNS did not kill off election night 168 00:08:54,910 --> 00:08:59,631 Speaker 1: competition between the networks. It just became less expensive. Yes, 169 00:08:59,670 --> 00:09:02,070 Speaker 1: the networks were now all working off the same VNS 170 00:09:02,190 --> 00:09:05,631 Speaker 1: data and the same VNS projection model, but they could 171 00:09:05,631 --> 00:09:07,551 Speaker 1: make their own choices about when it was safe to 172 00:09:07,590 --> 00:09:11,591 Speaker 1: call a race. Under the VNS system, each news organization 173 00:09:11,710 --> 00:09:14,071 Speaker 1: was free to set its own standards for how likely 174 00:09:14,111 --> 00:09:16,990 Speaker 1: someone's victory needed to be before a winner could be declared. 175 00:09:17,631 --> 00:09:21,470 Speaker 4: You have a statistical model. All right, and the model says, well, 176 00:09:21,871 --> 00:09:25,231 Speaker 4: you might be wrong one out of two hundred close races. Well, 177 00:09:25,391 --> 00:09:28,230 Speaker 4: if you're willing to say I'll be wrong two out 178 00:09:28,231 --> 00:09:31,830 Speaker 4: of two hundred, you have an edge. And so there's 179 00:09:31,950 --> 00:09:35,030 Speaker 4: real benefits to just being faster and a little riskier, 180 00:09:35,030 --> 00:09:37,631 Speaker 4: because the chance of it catching up with you are very, 181 00:09:37,751 --> 00:09:39,110 Speaker 4: very small. 182 00:09:39,190 --> 00:09:42,271 Speaker 1: As the nineties wore on, the network started calling races 183 00:09:42,310 --> 00:09:45,631 Speaker 1: too early for Adelman's taste. The drive to outpace the 184 00:09:45,631 --> 00:09:48,310 Speaker 1: competition seemed to be overpowering the need to be sure 185 00:09:48,670 --> 00:09:51,470 Speaker 1: and the need to be right. Adelman feared that at 186 00:09:51,471 --> 00:09:54,790 Speaker 1: some point the networks would get overconfident with an important race. 187 00:09:55,910 --> 00:09:59,711 Speaker 1: Then on November seventh, two thousand, it happened. 188 00:10:00,351 --> 00:10:03,151 Speaker 12: Good grief, eleven thousand votes. It's less than a half 189 00:10:03,151 --> 00:10:07,391 Speaker 12: a point. That would be something if the network's managed 190 00:10:07,430 --> 00:10:09,310 Speaker 12: to blow it twice in one night. 191 00:10:10,231 --> 00:10:13,431 Speaker 1: Speak for yourself, Adelman told me he would come to 192 00:10:13,471 --> 00:10:17,670 Speaker 1: divide his career into two distinct eras before and after. 193 00:10:17,830 --> 00:10:18,430 Speaker 1: Two thousand. 194 00:10:18,950 --> 00:10:22,070 Speaker 4: You've asked me to remember the most miserable day of 195 00:10:22,111 --> 00:10:22,511 Speaker 4: my life. 196 00:10:22,550 --> 00:10:23,591 Speaker 1: You know we're not there yet. 197 00:10:23,631 --> 00:10:24,030 Speaker 13: I don't. 198 00:10:24,991 --> 00:10:29,470 Speaker 1: I'm Leon Nafok from Prolog Projects and Pushkin industries. This 199 00:10:29,751 --> 00:10:32,831 Speaker 1: is fiasco bush v Gore. 200 00:10:32,910 --> 00:10:35,511 Speaker 2: Some strange, unusual things happening in flog. 201 00:10:35,590 --> 00:10:38,151 Speaker 12: Well, the networks give us, the networks take it away. 202 00:10:38,391 --> 00:10:40,271 Speaker 14: All the networks and all the pollsters are going to 203 00:10:40,271 --> 00:10:41,471 Speaker 14: get lots of egg on their faith. 204 00:10:41,550 --> 00:10:42,991 Speaker 6: I've just never seen anything like this. 205 00:10:43,070 --> 00:10:43,751 Speaker 9: I'm at a loss. 206 00:10:44,271 --> 00:10:49,030 Speaker 1: Episode two, Real Numbers. What went on behind the scenes 207 00:10:49,070 --> 00:10:53,111 Speaker 1: on Election Night two thousand as statisticians, political operatives, and 208 00:10:53,151 --> 00:10:57,351 Speaker 1: TV anchors walked the line between reporting the news, predicting 209 00:10:57,351 --> 00:11:04,431 Speaker 1: the future, and shaping reality. There were a lot of 210 00:11:04,430 --> 00:11:06,391 Speaker 1: states where the two thousand election was going to be 211 00:11:06,471 --> 00:11:09,710 Speaker 1: extremely close. Poles have been tight all over the country 212 00:11:09,751 --> 00:11:11,871 Speaker 1: from mid months, and they were only getting tighter as 213 00:11:11,910 --> 00:11:12,910 Speaker 1: election day drew near. 214 00:11:13,310 --> 00:11:15,471 Speaker 2: The race is as hot and tight as a too 215 00:11:15,471 --> 00:11:18,311 Speaker 2: small bathing suit on a too long car ride back from. 216 00:11:18,190 --> 00:11:20,951 Speaker 12: The beach, and all the polls indicate this remains a 217 00:11:21,030 --> 00:11:22,670 Speaker 12: race too close to call. 218 00:11:22,830 --> 00:11:24,871 Speaker 1: It wasn't just the presidency that hung in the balance. 219 00:11:25,511 --> 00:11:27,710 Speaker 1: The House and the Senate were also up for grabs, 220 00:11:27,950 --> 00:11:29,910 Speaker 1: and many of those races looked close to. 221 00:11:30,310 --> 00:11:33,030 Speaker 4: This is the first time since nineteen forty eight, when 222 00:11:33,111 --> 00:11:35,511 Speaker 4: control of the White House, the Senate and the House 223 00:11:35,511 --> 00:11:38,790 Speaker 4: of Representatives all have been legitimately up for grabs on 224 00:11:38,830 --> 00:11:40,231 Speaker 4: election day Republic. 225 00:11:40,310 --> 00:11:43,351 Speaker 1: A week before election day, Murray Adelman decided it would 226 00:11:43,351 --> 00:11:45,951 Speaker 1: be worth sending out a gentle warning to all the networks, 227 00:11:46,310 --> 00:11:49,230 Speaker 1: including Fox News, which had joined Venness after its founding 228 00:11:49,271 --> 00:11:52,431 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety six. Adelman urged the networks to be 229 00:11:52,471 --> 00:11:55,350 Speaker 1: careful about calling races when the margin between two candidates 230 00:11:55,430 --> 00:11:58,751 Speaker 1: was half a percentage point or less. Adelman reminded the 231 00:11:58,751 --> 00:12:01,350 Speaker 1: networks that it was always possible for final vote totals 232 00:12:01,471 --> 00:12:03,231 Speaker 1: to shift slightly from where they stood at the end 233 00:12:03,231 --> 00:12:06,671 Speaker 1: of the night. It happened with every election. Ballots would 234 00:12:06,670 --> 00:12:09,471 Speaker 1: get lost or found, Counting errors would be discovered, and 235 00:12:09,511 --> 00:12:09,910 Speaker 1: so on. 236 00:12:10,151 --> 00:12:11,870 Speaker 4: There's a lot of ways you can have errors in 237 00:12:11,910 --> 00:12:14,431 Speaker 4: the vote code. The precincts have to count it right. 238 00:12:14,670 --> 00:12:16,631 Speaker 4: Then they have to get it to the county. The 239 00:12:16,631 --> 00:12:19,351 Speaker 4: county has to count it right. We have people there 240 00:12:20,030 --> 00:12:22,511 Speaker 4: getting it as it's being added up. They have to 241 00:12:22,550 --> 00:12:24,831 Speaker 4: report it right. The person has to enter it right. 242 00:12:25,310 --> 00:12:26,830 Speaker 4: There's a lot of steps for error. 243 00:12:27,751 --> 00:12:31,271 Speaker 1: In his memo, Adelman gave historical examples of races where 244 00:12:31,271 --> 00:12:33,471 Speaker 1: the final vote total had shifted by half a percentage 245 00:12:33,511 --> 00:12:36,790 Speaker 1: point or more, even after most voting precincts had submitted 246 00:12:36,790 --> 00:12:40,511 Speaker 1: their tallies. His point was that with very close races, 247 00:12:40,590 --> 00:12:42,631 Speaker 1: it was better to wait and get it right than 248 00:12:42,670 --> 00:12:43,910 Speaker 1: to be first and get it wrong. 249 00:12:44,190 --> 00:12:46,830 Speaker 4: So that's what I sent out to everybody. I never 250 00:12:46,871 --> 00:12:50,271 Speaker 4: said don't call them. That wasn't my job. That would 251 00:12:50,271 --> 00:12:52,631 Speaker 4: have got me grief. I just said, just be very careful. 252 00:12:53,271 --> 00:12:57,950 Speaker 1: It was just a warning submitted for the network's consideration. Remember, 253 00:12:57,991 --> 00:13:01,391 Speaker 1: the networks owned vns. They didn't have to follow Aedelman's advice. 254 00:13:02,111 --> 00:13:04,910 Speaker 1: Aside from sounding the alarm, there wasn't really anything else 255 00:13:04,910 --> 00:13:11,591 Speaker 1: you could do. What happened next after the break. 256 00:13:18,991 --> 00:13:22,950 Speaker 7: Election day, the day to choose a new president for 257 00:13:23,151 --> 00:13:25,271 Speaker 7: a new censure as. 258 00:13:25,190 --> 00:13:29,431 Speaker 5: Voting continues literally at this hour, the candidates with the 259 00:13:29,471 --> 00:13:32,071 Speaker 5: major parties are right now at their home bases in 260 00:13:32,151 --> 00:13:35,430 Speaker 5: Tennessee and in Texas. They are waiting for the election 261 00:13:35,550 --> 00:13:36,631 Speaker 5: results to roll in. 262 00:13:37,070 --> 00:13:40,110 Speaker 1: On the afternoon of election day, George W. Bush was 263 00:13:40,111 --> 00:13:42,511 Speaker 1: in Austin working out at a gym at the University 264 00:13:42,550 --> 00:13:44,751 Speaker 1: of Texas when he got a call from his chief 265 00:13:44,751 --> 00:13:48,550 Speaker 1: political advisor, Karl Rove. Rove was calling to brief his 266 00:13:48,670 --> 00:13:52,511 Speaker 1: candidate on the campaign's first wave of internal polls. Bush 267 00:13:52,550 --> 00:13:54,790 Speaker 1: did not like what he heard, and he confessed to 268 00:13:54,871 --> 00:13:57,431 Speaker 1: Rove that he could sense defeat in the air, what 269 00:13:57,550 --> 00:14:01,991 Speaker 1: he called the smell. Bush's campaign trajectory up to that 270 00:14:02,030 --> 00:14:04,391 Speaker 1: point had been jagged. He had started off with a 271 00:14:04,391 --> 00:14:07,991 Speaker 1: comfortable advantage over Gore, then fell behind, then vaulted ahead 272 00:14:07,991 --> 00:14:11,790 Speaker 1: again to a small lead going into November. Finally, a 273 00:14:11,790 --> 00:14:15,110 Speaker 1: few days before the election, the local Fox affiliate in Portland, 274 00:14:15,151 --> 00:14:17,830 Speaker 1: Maine reported that Bush had been arrested for drunk driving 275 00:14:17,871 --> 00:14:19,031 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy six. 276 00:14:19,391 --> 00:14:21,710 Speaker 7: Bush swept across the battleground states. 277 00:14:21,391 --> 00:14:24,831 Speaker 9: Of the Midwest today, competing with front page stories about 278 00:14:24,830 --> 00:14:25,471 Speaker 9: his arrest. 279 00:14:25,871 --> 00:14:28,471 Speaker 8: Obviously, there's a report out tonight that twenty four years ago, 280 00:14:29,151 --> 00:14:32,271 Speaker 8: I was apprehended in chenny Buckport, Maine for a DUI. 281 00:14:32,590 --> 00:14:33,631 Speaker 7: I'm not proud of that. 282 00:14:34,151 --> 00:14:36,231 Speaker 2: I find interesting that four or five days before the 283 00:14:36,271 --> 00:14:37,710 Speaker 2: election is coming to the surface. 284 00:14:38,631 --> 00:14:41,511 Speaker 1: On election night, as polls around the country started to close, 285 00:14:41,951 --> 00:14:44,511 Speaker 1: Bush surrounded himself with his family to watch the returns 286 00:14:44,511 --> 00:14:46,791 Speaker 1: on TV from a suite in the Four Seasons Hotel 287 00:14:46,871 --> 00:14:50,471 Speaker 1: in downtown Austin. In addition to his wife Laura, his 288 00:14:50,511 --> 00:14:54,230 Speaker 1: mother Barbara, his sisters, and his daughters. Bush was joined 289 00:14:54,231 --> 00:14:56,830 Speaker 1: by his father, the former president, and his brother Jeb, 290 00:14:56,911 --> 00:14:59,951 Speaker 1: the governor of Florida. George Bush had watched both of 291 00:14:59,991 --> 00:15:02,271 Speaker 1: them lose big elections in the past, and as his 292 00:15:02,351 --> 00:15:05,631 Speaker 1: campaign wound down to its final hours, the contest looked 293 00:15:05,631 --> 00:15:08,431 Speaker 1: so excruciatingly close that he had no idea whether they 294 00:15:08,431 --> 00:15:10,271 Speaker 1: were about to see the same. Thing happened to him. 295 00:15:10,271 --> 00:15:13,471 Speaker 7: It's the closest election in a generation that we're going 296 00:15:13,511 --> 00:15:15,710 Speaker 7: to see in the course of this evening, whether in 297 00:15:15,751 --> 00:15:18,151 Speaker 7: fact it will live up to its billings. 298 00:15:18,151 --> 00:15:20,431 Speaker 14: If you've ever longed for those nights when people waited 299 00:15:20,511 --> 00:15:22,511 Speaker 14: late to find out who their leader was, pull up 300 00:15:22,551 --> 00:15:23,750 Speaker 14: a chair, this may be it. 301 00:15:24,431 --> 00:15:26,911 Speaker 1: By this point, Bush and his family had migrated to 302 00:15:26,951 --> 00:15:30,830 Speaker 1: the Shoreline Grill, a restaurant near the Four Seasons. There, 303 00:15:30,871 --> 00:15:33,791 Speaker 1: in a private dining room, Bush watched the news. A 304 00:15:33,791 --> 00:15:37,351 Speaker 1: little before seven o'clock Central time, NBC's decision desk made 305 00:15:37,351 --> 00:15:38,710 Speaker 1: a deeply disappointing call. 306 00:15:39,071 --> 00:15:42,031 Speaker 12: We're going to now project an important win for Vice 307 00:15:42,071 --> 00:15:45,151 Speaker 12: President Al Gore. NBC News projects that he wins the 308 00:15:45,191 --> 00:15:48,551 Speaker 12: twenty five electoral votes in the state of Florida. It 309 00:15:48,590 --> 00:15:51,431 Speaker 12: turns out that Governor Jeb Bush was not his brother's keeper. 310 00:15:51,751 --> 00:15:54,271 Speaker 1: Bush was once again hit with the smell of defeat. 311 00:15:55,271 --> 00:15:58,271 Speaker 1: Without Florida's twenty five electoral votes, his path to victory 312 00:15:58,351 --> 00:15:59,230 Speaker 1: was painfully narrow. 313 00:15:59,351 --> 00:16:01,710 Speaker 7: The top advisors are really crunching the numbers. 314 00:16:01,751 --> 00:16:01,951 Speaker 8: Now. 315 00:16:02,311 --> 00:16:03,751 Speaker 4: Florida is very important. 316 00:16:03,830 --> 00:16:06,751 Speaker 15: It is very, very dicey for George W. Bush to 317 00:16:06,830 --> 00:16:08,911 Speaker 15: win this election without Florida. 318 00:16:09,031 --> 00:16:10,951 Speaker 1: In order to stop Gore from getting to two hundred 319 00:16:10,951 --> 00:16:13,470 Speaker 1: and seventy votes in the electoral College, Bush would have 320 00:16:13,551 --> 00:16:18,830 Speaker 1: to win Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Michigan, an ambitious and unrealistic trifecta. 321 00:16:18,551 --> 00:16:19,590 Speaker 2: Looking tough for Bush. 322 00:16:19,710 --> 00:16:22,031 Speaker 15: If al Gore wins Pennsylvania in New Hampshire, then he 323 00:16:22,071 --> 00:16:24,031 Speaker 15: really only has to pick up one more state. 324 00:16:24,511 --> 00:16:29,271 Speaker 1: Bush stood stonefaced taking it in. His brother Jeb might 325 00:16:29,271 --> 00:16:32,311 Speaker 1: have felt even worse. Jeb Bush was the governor of 326 00:16:32,311 --> 00:16:36,191 Speaker 1: Florida for practically the entire campaign. It was assumed that 327 00:16:36,231 --> 00:16:39,111 Speaker 1: he would help deliver the state to the Bush Chainey ticket. 328 00:16:39,710 --> 00:16:42,951 Speaker 1: When all the networks, including Fox News, confirmed that Florida 329 00:16:42,991 --> 00:16:46,351 Speaker 1: was going for Gore, Jeb hugged George and said sorry, brother, 330 00:16:46,830 --> 00:16:50,311 Speaker 1: before leaving the restaurant. According to some reports, he had 331 00:16:50,311 --> 00:16:51,111 Speaker 1: tears in his eyes. 332 00:16:51,351 --> 00:16:53,191 Speaker 4: I think the results in Florida have got to be 333 00:16:53,191 --> 00:16:56,311 Speaker 4: a bittersweet for the Bush family. Of course, the brother 334 00:16:56,431 --> 00:16:59,391 Speaker 4: of the governor sitting governor in Florida, that can't be 335 00:16:59,431 --> 00:17:00,271 Speaker 4: a happy one. 336 00:17:00,111 --> 00:17:01,351 Speaker 7: For the Bush family. 337 00:17:01,590 --> 00:17:04,271 Speaker 1: As the Bushes retreated to the Governor's mansion, the networks 338 00:17:04,311 --> 00:17:08,871 Speaker 1: continued delivering unwelcome news. First Michigan and Illinois went blue, 339 00:17:09,111 --> 00:17:10,191 Speaker 1: then Pennsylvania. 340 00:17:10,471 --> 00:17:12,951 Speaker 7: We now projected Pennsylvania. In fact, he is going to 341 00:17:12,991 --> 00:17:15,951 Speaker 7: go to mister Gore, so that gives him the Big three. 342 00:17:15,991 --> 00:17:18,630 Speaker 7: That gives him Florida and Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those were 343 00:17:18,630 --> 00:17:20,991 Speaker 7: the toughest battleground states of the year, and ABC News 344 00:17:21,071 --> 00:17:21,711 Speaker 7: now projects. 345 00:17:21,751 --> 00:17:24,190 Speaker 1: As the news came in, as Jeb Bush called his 346 00:17:24,271 --> 00:17:27,390 Speaker 1: cousin John Ellis in New York, this was not merely 347 00:17:27,431 --> 00:17:30,110 Speaker 1: a family check in. Ellis ran the decision desk at 348 00:17:30,110 --> 00:17:32,630 Speaker 1: Fox News, and he had been in regular communication with 349 00:17:32,671 --> 00:17:35,551 Speaker 1: the Bush family throughout the night. As Ellis looked at 350 00:17:35,551 --> 00:17:38,151 Speaker 1: the Florida numbers being pumped into Fox's computers by Murray 351 00:17:38,191 --> 00:17:41,111 Speaker 1: Adelman and VNS, he told his cousin Jeb that all 352 00:17:41,150 --> 00:17:47,351 Speaker 1: he saw was a screen full of Gore. Murray Adelman 353 00:17:47,431 --> 00:17:49,430 Speaker 1: and the rest of the VNS team were working out 354 00:17:49,471 --> 00:17:51,630 Speaker 1: of temporary office space at the World Trade Center in 355 00:17:51,671 --> 00:17:56,071 Speaker 1: Manhattan when NBC called Florida for Gore. Adelman looked at 356 00:17:56,071 --> 00:17:57,911 Speaker 1: the numbers to see if he agreed with the projection. 357 00:17:59,110 --> 00:18:02,150 Speaker 1: After comparing VNS exit polls and incoming vote totals to 358 00:18:02,231 --> 00:18:05,870 Speaker 1: data on passed elections, Adelman concluded that the Florida call 359 00:18:06,031 --> 00:18:09,271 Speaker 1: was good. Though only four percent of the state's votes 360 00:18:09,271 --> 00:18:11,911 Speaker 1: have encountered, this was not a case of the networks 361 00:18:11,951 --> 00:18:14,551 Speaker 1: declaring a winner too quickly out of an unhealthy sense 362 00:18:14,551 --> 00:18:18,430 Speaker 1: of competition. The VNS model clearly showed that Gore was 363 00:18:18,471 --> 00:18:18,991 Speaker 1: going to win. 364 00:18:20,231 --> 00:18:22,791 Speaker 4: I mean it was it looked really, really solid. It 365 00:18:22,830 --> 00:18:26,910 Speaker 4: was beyond a maybe, it was really solid, and so 366 00:18:27,271 --> 00:18:30,190 Speaker 4: I called it at seven fifty two PM, which I 367 00:18:30,271 --> 00:18:33,711 Speaker 4: called the pinnacle of my career. That was it was 368 00:18:33,751 --> 00:18:35,190 Speaker 4: all downhill after that moment. 369 00:18:43,150 --> 00:18:46,190 Speaker 1: On any given election day, the two campaigns battling for 370 00:18:46,231 --> 00:18:50,830 Speaker 1: the presidency revolve around two distinct centers of gravity. One 371 00:18:50,911 --> 00:18:53,630 Speaker 1: is composed of the candidate and his inner circle. The 372 00:18:53,711 --> 00:18:56,910 Speaker 1: other is a rapid response team staffed by political operatives, 373 00:18:57,110 --> 00:19:01,511 Speaker 1: polsters and campaign advisors. Their job is to gather information 374 00:19:01,551 --> 00:19:03,791 Speaker 1: about the race all through the day and night and 375 00:19:03,870 --> 00:19:07,791 Speaker 1: fight for any potential advantage they can find. Bush's rapid 376 00:19:07,830 --> 00:19:10,031 Speaker 1: response team was operating out of an office belonging to 377 00:19:10,271 --> 00:19:14,590 Speaker 1: Carl Rove. Stuart Stevens, a media consultant to Bush, spent 378 00:19:14,630 --> 00:19:17,471 Speaker 1: most of his evening in Rove's orbit worrying about the returns. 379 00:19:17,951 --> 00:19:20,271 Speaker 10: It was really tense, and there are a lot of 380 00:19:20,350 --> 00:19:23,390 Speaker 10: highs and lows, you know. The worst point was when 381 00:19:23,511 --> 00:19:25,670 Speaker 10: they called Florida for Gore. 382 00:19:26,630 --> 00:19:29,431 Speaker 1: But if the Bush team ever wallowed in despair over Florida, 383 00:19:29,830 --> 00:19:33,871 Speaker 1: they moved on quickly to indignation and outrage. For one thing, 384 00:19:33,911 --> 00:19:35,751 Speaker 1: they thought the networks were not giving enough weight to 385 00:19:35,751 --> 00:19:40,231 Speaker 1: absentee ballots, which the Bush campaign believed would favor them. Also, 386 00:19:40,870 --> 00:19:43,590 Speaker 1: NBC had called Florida around ten minutes before poles had 387 00:19:43,590 --> 00:19:45,830 Speaker 1: closed and the part of the state known as the Panhandle. 388 00:19:46,751 --> 00:19:49,751 Speaker 1: Unlike the rest of Florida, the Panhandle was on Central Time, 389 00:19:50,150 --> 00:19:53,510 Speaker 1: and it just so happened to be heavily Republican. Stuart 390 00:19:53,511 --> 00:19:55,910 Speaker 1: Stephens thought that by calling Florida for Gore before the 391 00:19:55,951 --> 00:19:58,910 Speaker 1: polls and the Panhandle had closed, the media was robbing 392 00:19:58,951 --> 00:20:00,910 Speaker 1: Bush of an unknowable number of votes. 393 00:20:01,231 --> 00:20:04,591 Speaker 10: You never can calculate what this means. But if you're 394 00:20:04,590 --> 00:20:07,831 Speaker 10: headed to the polls to vote in Florida for your 395 00:20:07,911 --> 00:20:09,951 Speaker 10: candidate and you hear on the radio that your canad 396 00:20:10,071 --> 00:20:14,431 Speaker 10: it's already lost Florida, it's not. I'm sorry to think 397 00:20:14,511 --> 00:20:16,831 Speaker 10: that you might turn around and go home because you're 398 00:20:16,870 --> 00:20:17,751 Speaker 10: both not going to matter. 399 00:20:18,390 --> 00:20:21,630 Speaker 1: There was something else bothering the Bush operatives too. According 400 00:20:21,671 --> 00:20:24,110 Speaker 1: to their internal polling numbers which they got from campaign 401 00:20:24,191 --> 00:20:26,470 Speaker 1: workers on the ground at which the TV news networks 402 00:20:26,471 --> 00:20:29,390 Speaker 1: did not have access to, the race in Florida was 403 00:20:29,431 --> 00:20:31,950 Speaker 1: way too close for anyone to say with confidence that 404 00:20:31,991 --> 00:20:35,950 Speaker 1: Gore was going to win. To Stevens Rove and the 405 00:20:35,951 --> 00:20:38,470 Speaker 1: rest of the Bush campaign, it seemed clear that the 406 00:20:38,511 --> 00:20:42,111 Speaker 1: networks had jumped the gun, so they went to work. 407 00:20:44,870 --> 00:20:49,191 Speaker 10: All these networks have political producers. You're calling them and saying, look, 408 00:20:49,231 --> 00:20:51,871 Speaker 10: we can't prove to you that we're going to win Florida, 409 00:20:52,231 --> 00:20:54,391 Speaker 10: but you can't prove to us we're going to lose Florida. 410 00:20:55,350 --> 00:20:57,630 Speaker 10: I think everybody was calling anybody you knew. 411 00:20:58,191 --> 00:21:01,191 Speaker 1: Soon Karl Rove in a parade of other Bush surrogates 412 00:21:01,191 --> 00:21:04,031 Speaker 1: were on live television making the campaign's case to the public. 413 00:21:04,511 --> 00:21:07,430 Speaker 14: Let me tell you, Bertie, you all called Florida before 414 00:21:07,471 --> 00:21:08,870 Speaker 14: Florida even closed its poll. 415 00:21:08,991 --> 00:21:11,191 Speaker 1: Florida's a state which some two times. 416 00:21:11,191 --> 00:21:14,031 Speaker 14: I've been asking all evening, Uh, how can you have 417 00:21:14,110 --> 00:21:17,671 Speaker 14: that many absentee ballots out and assume that Governor Bush 418 00:21:17,711 --> 00:21:18,390 Speaker 14: has lost a state? 419 00:21:18,390 --> 00:21:21,390 Speaker 6: And as you know, Karl, what are you suggesting, Mary, 420 00:21:21,471 --> 00:21:23,950 Speaker 6: that I'm suggesting when the real count isn't in the 421 00:21:23,951 --> 00:21:28,630 Speaker 6: absentee ballots are counted, that they are extensive in there, 422 00:21:28,711 --> 00:21:29,950 Speaker 6: and that day's going to flip. 423 00:21:29,991 --> 00:21:30,910 Speaker 5: I really feel that way now. 424 00:21:30,991 --> 00:21:33,231 Speaker 1: Having said that, at nine to fifty five Eastern time, 425 00:21:33,711 --> 00:21:36,751 Speaker 1: Bush himself came out and addressed the situation in Florida. 426 00:21:36,911 --> 00:21:39,870 Speaker 7: This is mister Bush at home or in a hotel, 427 00:21:40,231 --> 00:21:42,431 Speaker 7: to be honest, I've forgotten where I watch. 428 00:21:42,630 --> 00:21:45,511 Speaker 1: Usually presidential candidates stay out of public view on the 429 00:21:45,590 --> 00:21:47,551 Speaker 1: night of an election until it's time for someone to 430 00:21:47,590 --> 00:21:51,071 Speaker 1: concede and someone else to declare victory. Speaking from the 431 00:21:51,071 --> 00:21:54,830 Speaker 1: governor's mansion in Austin, Bush hit a note of unequivocal defiance. 432 00:21:55,511 --> 00:21:57,751 Speaker 1: Florida was still very much in play, and. 433 00:21:58,191 --> 00:22:00,431 Speaker 9: The network's call this thing awfully early, but the people 434 00:22:00,431 --> 00:22:02,110 Speaker 9: are actually counting the votes are coming up with a 435 00:22:02,150 --> 00:22:07,071 Speaker 9: little different perspective, and so pretty dawn out beat about things. 436 00:22:08,271 --> 00:22:11,150 Speaker 7: Okay, Governor Bush, pretty darn upbeat about this. 437 00:22:11,431 --> 00:22:13,830 Speaker 1: And as you we heard, he was spin. But it 438 00:22:13,870 --> 00:22:16,830 Speaker 1: was spin that Bush and his campaign staff sincerely believed. 439 00:22:17,751 --> 00:22:20,191 Speaker 1: Here again is Bush Media consultants, Stuart Stevens. 440 00:22:20,551 --> 00:22:22,111 Speaker 10: And there's a fog of war out there, and you're 441 00:22:22,110 --> 00:22:25,631 Speaker 10: trying to figure out past to victory. And I don't 442 00:22:25,671 --> 00:22:29,830 Speaker 10: think that we were overstating the case. What we were 443 00:22:29,870 --> 00:22:31,751 Speaker 10: saying was accurate. We were saying, you should just pull 444 00:22:31,791 --> 00:22:34,071 Speaker 10: it back, it's too close to call, which is a 445 00:22:34,110 --> 00:22:38,071 Speaker 10: pretty reasonable, as it turns out, very accurate request. 446 00:22:38,870 --> 00:22:41,791 Speaker 1: While the Bush team mobilized, a young researcher at NBC 447 00:22:41,870 --> 00:22:44,671 Speaker 1: News named Michelle Jaconi was also trying to figure out 448 00:22:44,711 --> 00:22:47,711 Speaker 1: what was going on in Florida. Jaconi worked on Meet 449 00:22:47,711 --> 00:22:49,911 Speaker 1: the Press. It was her first job out of college. 450 00:22:50,511 --> 00:22:52,591 Speaker 1: The show is based in DC, but for election night, 451 00:22:52,751 --> 00:22:54,751 Speaker 1: Tim Russert and his staff were working out of thirty 452 00:22:54,830 --> 00:22:56,271 Speaker 1: Rockefeller Plaza in New York. 453 00:22:57,031 --> 00:23:00,031 Speaker 16: Meet the Press at that time was also the politics 454 00:23:00,031 --> 00:23:03,551 Speaker 16: and polling unit of NBC News. I was, you know, 455 00:23:03,951 --> 00:23:07,150 Speaker 16: a researcher, and it was a very tiny team. In 456 00:23:07,150 --> 00:23:10,150 Speaker 16: the res era of Meet the Press. There was five 457 00:23:10,191 --> 00:23:11,590 Speaker 16: to six of us, depending on the year. 458 00:23:12,071 --> 00:23:14,431 Speaker 1: Jacconi had spent the weeks leading up to election day 459 00:23:14,511 --> 00:23:17,551 Speaker 1: putting together a comprehensive guide to every notable race that 460 00:23:17,630 --> 00:23:20,390 Speaker 1: might come up during live coverage. As part of her 461 00:23:20,390 --> 00:23:23,311 Speaker 1: research on Florida, she discovered that the Florida Secretary of 462 00:23:23,311 --> 00:23:25,590 Speaker 1: State's office was going to be posting raw vote totals 463 00:23:25,590 --> 00:23:28,670 Speaker 1: on its website in real time as ballots were being counted. 464 00:23:29,350 --> 00:23:32,231 Speaker 1: Jacony was delighted by this high tech act of transparency, 465 00:23:32,590 --> 00:23:34,391 Speaker 1: but what she saw when she looked at the website 466 00:23:34,471 --> 00:23:36,670 Speaker 1: on election night made her very uneasy. 467 00:23:36,911 --> 00:23:39,710 Speaker 16: I just remembered it was so close, and then I 468 00:23:39,791 --> 00:23:42,590 Speaker 16: thought they must know something about the outstanding vote that 469 00:23:42,630 --> 00:23:43,190 Speaker 16: I don't know. 470 00:23:43,830 --> 00:23:46,110 Speaker 1: What Jacconi saw in these numbers was that, for the 471 00:23:46,150 --> 00:23:48,791 Speaker 1: time being, Bush had a slight lead over Gore in 472 00:23:48,791 --> 00:23:52,191 Speaker 1: the raw vote total. At seven forty nine pm, when 473 00:23:52,311 --> 00:23:55,350 Speaker 1: NBC projected that Gore was going to win Florida, Bush 474 00:23:55,431 --> 00:23:58,470 Speaker 1: was actually up by a few percentage points. The reason 475 00:23:58,551 --> 00:24:00,831 Speaker 1: VNS and the networks believed Gore was going to win 476 00:24:01,071 --> 00:24:03,551 Speaker 1: was that, according to their models, the as yet uncounted 477 00:24:03,630 --> 00:24:07,311 Speaker 1: votes would favor Gore and eventually put him ahead. But 478 00:24:07,390 --> 00:24:09,991 Speaker 1: the longer Jaconi looked at the incoming vote totals online, 479 00:24:10,630 --> 00:24:13,391 Speaker 1: the more uncertain she was that Gore was actually poised 480 00:24:13,390 --> 00:24:17,350 Speaker 1: to overtake Bush's lead. Meanwhile, all the news anchors, including 481 00:24:17,390 --> 00:24:20,511 Speaker 1: Jacconi's boss Tim Russert, were still saying Gore was going 482 00:24:20,551 --> 00:24:21,151 Speaker 1: to carry the state. 483 00:24:21,630 --> 00:24:23,830 Speaker 15: AEP balanced. But I think the networks have all taken 484 00:24:23,870 --> 00:24:26,511 Speaker 15: their time and making this projection. If it's wrong, will 485 00:24:26,551 --> 00:24:28,991 Speaker 15: be the first to admit it. And obviously the information 486 00:24:29,031 --> 00:24:31,511 Speaker 15: that mister Reill provided will be factored in. There was calculation, 487 00:24:31,630 --> 00:24:34,671 Speaker 15: but every network looked at this based on the samplings 488 00:24:34,711 --> 00:24:36,911 Speaker 15: we're getting and awarded it to Vice President Gore. 489 00:24:37,791 --> 00:24:41,551 Speaker 16: I just remembered being petrified for my boss being on 490 00:24:41,630 --> 00:24:45,751 Speaker 16: air and not knowing if information given to him was. 491 00:24:45,711 --> 00:24:46,390 Speaker 1: Accurate or not. 492 00:24:46,870 --> 00:24:49,190 Speaker 16: I thought that they put a story to bed that 493 00:24:49,231 --> 00:24:51,311 Speaker 16: should not have been put to bed, and I was 494 00:24:51,350 --> 00:24:54,311 Speaker 16: scared that the reputation of my boss was on the line. 495 00:24:54,390 --> 00:24:55,751 Speaker 16: And I just was scared. 496 00:24:55,911 --> 00:24:59,071 Speaker 1: But Jacony was also kind of excited. She had studied 497 00:24:59,071 --> 00:25:01,230 Speaker 1: Florida election law, and she had learned that when the 498 00:25:01,271 --> 00:25:04,390 Speaker 1: margin between two candidates was half a percentage point or less, 499 00:25:04,791 --> 00:25:08,151 Speaker 1: it triggered an automatic statewide recount of all ballots. 500 00:25:08,431 --> 00:25:12,151 Speaker 16: I just remember that word trigger triggered an automatic recount 501 00:25:12,231 --> 00:25:15,230 Speaker 16: right within point five percent, meaning that nobody would have 502 00:25:15,271 --> 00:25:17,751 Speaker 16: to ask for a recount, that it would be automatic 503 00:25:18,231 --> 00:25:21,910 Speaker 16: based on how people marked their ballots, and that I 504 00:25:22,071 --> 00:25:26,071 Speaker 16: just thought, what a fascinating scenario if that were to happen. 505 00:25:30,590 --> 00:25:33,630 Speaker 1: Back at VNS headquarters, Murray Aidelman was focused on just 506 00:25:33,630 --> 00:25:37,350 Speaker 1: about everything but Florida. He had called the state hours earlier, 507 00:25:37,751 --> 00:25:40,830 Speaker 1: and he had moved on. But then, what was the 508 00:25:40,830 --> 00:25:42,990 Speaker 1: first indication that there was something wrong with the numbers? 509 00:25:43,511 --> 00:25:45,551 Speaker 4: Well, the first indication was when I got a call 510 00:25:45,590 --> 00:25:46,471 Speaker 4: from Warren. 511 00:25:46,471 --> 00:25:49,951 Speaker 1: Warren, as you'll recall, was Aidelman's longtime colleague, Warren Ntowski. 512 00:25:50,751 --> 00:25:52,710 Speaker 1: He had left Voter News Service after the ninety two 513 00:25:52,751 --> 00:25:55,870 Speaker 1: election and was now calling races for CBS and CNN. 514 00:25:56,751 --> 00:25:59,910 Speaker 1: After Mitowski's departure, Adelman had been handed the reins to 515 00:25:59,911 --> 00:26:02,110 Speaker 1: the VNS projections operation for the first time. 516 00:26:02,590 --> 00:26:05,311 Speaker 4: He wanted to take me with it, but I didn't. 517 00:26:05,511 --> 00:26:07,990 Speaker 4: I didn't go because I had been under a shadow 518 00:26:08,071 --> 00:26:09,431 Speaker 4: for my whole career pretty much. 519 00:26:10,031 --> 00:26:13,110 Speaker 1: Now, Adelman's former mentor was on the phone demanding to 520 00:26:13,110 --> 00:26:15,231 Speaker 1: know what VNS was doing about Florida. 521 00:26:16,031 --> 00:26:18,590 Speaker 4: You know. He started off saying, have you been watching Florida? 522 00:26:18,630 --> 00:26:20,751 Speaker 4: I said, nowhere, and I've got a thousand other things 523 00:26:20,751 --> 00:26:22,670 Speaker 4: to do right now. He said, well, well take a 524 00:26:22,671 --> 00:26:24,830 Speaker 4: look at it, because the status has gone down. 525 00:26:25,150 --> 00:26:28,191 Speaker 1: According to the VNS projection model, Gore and Bush were 526 00:26:28,191 --> 00:26:31,151 Speaker 1: now neck and neck. But Adelman didn't think the call 527 00:26:31,231 --> 00:26:33,951 Speaker 1: needed to be pulled back yet, And when Matoski called 528 00:26:33,991 --> 00:26:36,151 Speaker 1: him a second time, Adelman told him so. 529 00:26:36,630 --> 00:26:38,910 Speaker 4: And I said, well, I've got people looking into it. 530 00:26:38,951 --> 00:26:41,431 Speaker 4: And he said, well, I think we should retract the call. 531 00:26:42,031 --> 00:26:43,951 Speaker 4: And I said, I'm not ready to do that yet. 532 00:26:44,071 --> 00:26:45,231 Speaker 4: I don't think it's there yet. 533 00:26:45,791 --> 00:26:48,350 Speaker 1: But Mitofski felt strongly that the Florida call needed to 534 00:26:48,390 --> 00:26:51,791 Speaker 1: be retracted. At nine fifty four PM, he sent his 535 00:26:51,830 --> 00:26:54,110 Speaker 1: decision to the producers he was working with at CBS 536 00:26:54,110 --> 00:26:58,670 Speaker 1: and CNN. He attached an explanation, we don't entirely trust 537 00:26:58,751 --> 00:27:02,151 Speaker 1: all the information we have in from VNS. Dan rather 538 00:27:02,231 --> 00:27:04,031 Speaker 1: delivered the news on the air moments later. 539 00:27:04,350 --> 00:27:07,031 Speaker 2: This knockdown, drag out battle drags on into the night 540 00:27:07,071 --> 00:27:09,911 Speaker 2: and turned the lights down. The party just got wilder. 541 00:27:10,390 --> 00:27:13,711 Speaker 2: Florida comes out of the Gore column, back up in 542 00:27:13,751 --> 00:27:14,511 Speaker 2: the air, there's dose. 543 00:27:14,870 --> 00:27:17,791 Speaker 1: ABC and Fox News pulled Florida out of the Gore category. 544 00:27:17,830 --> 00:27:19,870 Speaker 7: Next, we now believe that the state of Florida is 545 00:27:19,870 --> 00:27:23,271 Speaker 7: too close to call. We and most other news services 546 00:27:23,271 --> 00:27:26,071 Speaker 7: had called it for mister Gore. We now believe it 547 00:27:26,150 --> 00:27:28,630 Speaker 7: is too close to call. It's always been the biggest 548 00:27:28,630 --> 00:27:29,671 Speaker 7: state for the racist cloth. 549 00:27:29,870 --> 00:27:33,590 Speaker 1: Finally, at ten fifteen PM, Adelman concluded that he needed 550 00:27:33,590 --> 00:27:37,430 Speaker 1: to pull back Florida two. Typing into his terminal, he 551 00:27:37,511 --> 00:27:40,590 Speaker 1: informed the networks that VNS was retracting its call. We 552 00:27:40,671 --> 00:27:42,511 Speaker 1: don't have the confidence we did, he wrote. 553 00:27:43,671 --> 00:27:46,311 Speaker 4: I think for me it was partly not wanting to 554 00:27:46,311 --> 00:27:49,751 Speaker 4: see it. Yeah, what, Ian, Well do you ever like 555 00:27:49,791 --> 00:27:54,110 Speaker 4: saying you're wrong? I mean, it's not fun and you 556 00:27:54,150 --> 00:27:57,991 Speaker 4: get this really heavy, failing so real. I don't recommend. 557 00:27:57,991 --> 00:27:59,110 Speaker 4: It's a really awful feeling. 558 00:27:59,431 --> 00:28:02,190 Speaker 1: Adelman wasn't sad because he wanted Gore to win the election. 559 00:28:03,110 --> 00:28:06,910 Speaker 1: It's because his numbers, the projections generated by his VNS model, 560 00:28:07,311 --> 00:28:12,311 Speaker 1: had been wrong. Remember, before the election, Adelman was worried 561 00:28:12,311 --> 00:28:15,151 Speaker 1: that the networks would be irresponsible and call races before 562 00:28:15,150 --> 00:28:19,071 Speaker 1: they were ready. But this this was his data, his 563 00:28:19,150 --> 00:28:22,151 Speaker 1: exit polls, his vote tallies, that had led the networks 564 00:28:22,150 --> 00:28:24,870 Speaker 1: to incorrectly call one of the most important states in 565 00:28:24,870 --> 00:28:28,791 Speaker 1: the country. And maybe worst of all, Aedelman didn't even 566 00:28:28,830 --> 00:28:30,071 Speaker 1: know what had caused the error. 567 00:28:30,471 --> 00:28:32,791 Speaker 4: We didn't really know what happened. We just know that 568 00:28:32,870 --> 00:28:37,110 Speaker 4: the estimate changed as more information came in. We didn't 569 00:28:37,150 --> 00:28:38,470 Speaker 4: know where the problem was. 570 00:28:39,391 --> 00:28:41,511 Speaker 1: Adelman told me that you could only compare the feeling 571 00:28:41,591 --> 00:28:42,151 Speaker 1: to one thing. 572 00:28:43,151 --> 00:28:45,391 Speaker 4: You must have had the feeling when you found someone died. 573 00:28:46,111 --> 00:28:49,511 Speaker 4: It's like you don't quite believe it at first, you know, 574 00:28:49,671 --> 00:28:52,751 Speaker 4: like sometimes I've said you're kidding or some stupid thing 575 00:28:52,831 --> 00:28:54,871 Speaker 4: like that, but like I didn't don't quite believe it 576 00:28:54,911 --> 00:28:57,751 Speaker 4: at first, and then it just starts the reality comes 577 00:28:57,791 --> 00:29:01,511 Speaker 4: over your whole body. Oh, it was like that. I 578 00:29:01,551 --> 00:29:07,031 Speaker 4: was like, oh, it made a really big mistake and 579 00:29:07,071 --> 00:29:09,991 Speaker 4: that was hard. You know, that was hard to deal with. 580 00:29:12,271 --> 00:29:15,911 Speaker 5: Candy Crowley joins us from Austin the Candy. 581 00:29:15,911 --> 00:29:17,671 Speaker 7: I think you can hear the crowd reaction. 582 00:29:18,751 --> 00:29:20,791 Speaker 3: They're obviously very energized in this crowd. 583 00:29:20,831 --> 00:29:22,710 Speaker 17: I'm not going to assure you in the Bush campaign, 584 00:29:22,911 --> 00:29:23,791 Speaker 17: well we knew. 585 00:29:23,951 --> 00:29:26,951 Speaker 1: While the Bush team celebrated their attracted Florida call in Austin, 586 00:29:27,391 --> 00:29:31,471 Speaker 1: al Gore's staff was recovering from shock. The nerve center 587 00:29:31,511 --> 00:29:33,710 Speaker 1: of the Gore operation was in a single story building 588 00:29:33,751 --> 00:29:36,671 Speaker 1: in Nashville, where a team of data analysts and operatives 589 00:29:36,711 --> 00:29:40,031 Speaker 1: worked in a windowless space known internally as the boiler room. 590 00:29:40,351 --> 00:29:42,950 Speaker 17: It's kept very separate from the candidate. You're not going 591 00:29:42,991 --> 00:29:44,911 Speaker 17: to ever see the candidate in the boiler room. This 592 00:29:45,071 --> 00:29:47,591 Speaker 17: is really the turnout operation, where we're tracking what's coming 593 00:29:47,631 --> 00:29:50,190 Speaker 17: in from the states, and we're feeding it in and 594 00:29:50,191 --> 00:29:51,190 Speaker 17: we're making decisions. 595 00:29:51,471 --> 00:29:54,991 Speaker 1: Jenny Beckis was the communications officer for the Democratic National Committee. 596 00:29:55,431 --> 00:29:57,591 Speaker 1: She spent election day giving input on get out the 597 00:29:57,631 --> 00:30:00,751 Speaker 1: vote efforts and talking to reporters about how various states 598 00:30:00,751 --> 00:30:04,151 Speaker 1: were looking earlier in the day, Long before she turned 599 00:30:04,151 --> 00:30:07,351 Speaker 1: her attention to Florida backus's primary concern had been a 600 00:30:07,391 --> 00:30:09,951 Speaker 1: snowstorm in New Mexico that had the potential to affect 601 00:30:10,111 --> 00:30:10,831 Speaker 1: voter turnout. 602 00:30:11,151 --> 00:30:13,631 Speaker 17: Snow in New Mexico was like a big, big thing 603 00:30:13,671 --> 00:30:16,270 Speaker 17: that was in our heads. But I remember, like I 604 00:30:16,311 --> 00:30:19,511 Speaker 17: was really confident that we had been smart and strategic 605 00:30:19,511 --> 00:30:23,311 Speaker 17: about where we had resources, and I think Gore closed 606 00:30:23,351 --> 00:30:24,111 Speaker 17: pretty strong. 607 00:30:24,591 --> 00:30:28,231 Speaker 1: As Gore racked up one battleground state after another, many 608 00:30:28,231 --> 00:30:30,431 Speaker 1: of the donors and prominent supporters who had been hanging 609 00:30:30,471 --> 00:30:33,551 Speaker 1: out at the campaign headquarters left the building to start celebrating. 610 00:30:34,151 --> 00:30:36,470 Speaker 1: Knowing that Gore would be giving his victory speech at 611 00:30:36,471 --> 00:30:40,031 Speaker 1: the War Memorial Auditorium in downtown Nashville, they headed there 612 00:30:40,071 --> 00:30:41,631 Speaker 1: to wait for his win to become official. 613 00:30:42,151 --> 00:30:44,711 Speaker 17: If you're about to have somebody win the presidency, its 614 00:30:44,791 --> 00:30:47,231 Speaker 17: power closest to the throne. So a lot of people 615 00:30:47,271 --> 00:30:50,591 Speaker 17: had just wanted to be at the hotel or at 616 00:30:50,911 --> 00:30:53,190 Speaker 17: the War Memorial because that's where Gore was, and if 617 00:30:53,231 --> 00:30:56,591 Speaker 17: Gore wins, they're close. The rest of us are in 618 00:30:56,631 --> 00:30:59,391 Speaker 17: a closet trying to figure out what's happening in the snow. 619 00:30:59,431 --> 00:31:01,671 Speaker 1: In New Mexico, there had been a sense in the 620 00:31:01,671 --> 00:31:04,271 Speaker 1: boiler room that the Florida call for Gore might be shaky, 621 00:31:04,911 --> 00:31:07,271 Speaker 1: but it still came as a crushing disappointment when the 622 00:31:07,311 --> 00:31:10,271 Speaker 1: network's and VNS pulled it back of. 623 00:31:10,311 --> 00:31:12,991 Speaker 17: Stomach fell out. Everyone was like, where can we find 624 00:31:13,031 --> 00:31:17,031 Speaker 17: the votes? What's not out? What's still, everyone was starting 625 00:31:17,071 --> 00:31:20,591 Speaker 17: to say, Okay, if we don't win Florida, how do 626 00:31:20,631 --> 00:31:21,311 Speaker 17: we win this thing? 627 00:31:21,431 --> 00:31:23,631 Speaker 14: If you take twenty five votes away from al Gore 628 00:31:24,031 --> 00:31:26,071 Speaker 14: and put it in the underside of column, should they 629 00:31:26,071 --> 00:31:29,311 Speaker 14: break for Bush? The entire calculation of the last hour 630 00:31:29,351 --> 00:31:31,391 Speaker 14: and a half, it changes dramatically. 631 00:31:31,751 --> 00:31:34,671 Speaker 1: Bacchus and her colleague started contacting voting precincts and swing 632 00:31:34,711 --> 00:31:37,911 Speaker 1: states around the country. They were looking for updated vote tallies, 633 00:31:37,951 --> 00:31:40,031 Speaker 1: desperately trying to figure out if there was a pathway 634 00:31:40,071 --> 00:31:42,231 Speaker 1: to victory that did not include Florida. 635 00:31:42,351 --> 00:31:45,351 Speaker 17: New Mexico hadn't closed, and Nevada was still out there, 636 00:31:45,471 --> 00:31:50,671 Speaker 17: and so there were little slivers of hope still going on, 637 00:31:50,751 --> 00:31:54,631 Speaker 17: and Wisconsin was still really close, so we could still win. 638 00:31:55,351 --> 00:31:58,230 Speaker 17: We could win on the other path, and we were 639 00:31:58,271 --> 00:31:59,911 Speaker 17: waiting to see if we were going to get there. 640 00:32:05,191 --> 00:32:07,831 Speaker 1: But as the night stretched on, it became increasingly clear 641 00:32:07,871 --> 00:32:11,031 Speaker 1: that it was going to be Florida or nothing. Because 642 00:32:11,071 --> 00:32:13,871 Speaker 1: of how the other swing states broke. Neither candidate could 643 00:32:13,871 --> 00:32:16,471 Speaker 1: get the two hundred and seventy electoral College votes without 644 00:32:16,471 --> 00:32:17,751 Speaker 1: winning Florida's twenty five. 645 00:32:18,151 --> 00:32:19,791 Speaker 7: It could still go either way. 646 00:32:20,031 --> 00:32:22,111 Speaker 2: The Bush people think they'll win it on the strength 647 00:32:22,111 --> 00:32:24,710 Speaker 2: of absentee ballots. The Gore people think they'll win it 648 00:32:24,711 --> 00:32:27,111 Speaker 2: because they ran so strong in Southeast Florida. 649 00:32:27,151 --> 00:32:29,191 Speaker 12: All the chips have been pushed out of the map 650 00:32:29,551 --> 00:32:32,071 Speaker 12: down in the southeastern corner of the state of Florida. 651 00:32:32,271 --> 00:32:35,190 Speaker 12: There's a big, big stack of chips in that state. 652 00:32:35,471 --> 00:32:38,351 Speaker 12: Both candidates are counting on winning it because that could 653 00:32:38,351 --> 00:32:39,710 Speaker 12: get them to where they need to get to. 654 00:32:40,071 --> 00:32:43,151 Speaker 1: A little after two am, the VNS projection model was 655 00:32:43,191 --> 00:32:45,431 Speaker 1: showing that Bush was going to win Florida by twenty 656 00:32:45,511 --> 00:32:48,831 Speaker 1: nine thousand votes, the exact margin that Murray Adelman had 657 00:32:48,831 --> 00:32:52,231 Speaker 1: warned about in his memo. By this point, ninety six 658 00:32:52,271 --> 00:32:55,351 Speaker 1: percent of Florida's votes have been counted. The head of 659 00:32:55,391 --> 00:32:57,751 Speaker 1: the projection of the desk at NBC News called Adelman 660 00:32:57,871 --> 00:32:59,671 Speaker 1: to ask if it was time to pull the trigger 661 00:32:59,711 --> 00:33:01,431 Speaker 1: for Bush. 662 00:33:00,671 --> 00:33:02,871 Speaker 4: And he said, what do you think we're thinking of 663 00:33:02,911 --> 00:33:07,711 Speaker 4: calling it? And I said, did you read my memo? 664 00:33:07,791 --> 00:33:11,431 Speaker 4: And before he really got to answer than that, he said, oh, 665 00:33:11,511 --> 00:33:13,431 Speaker 4: Fox just called it. I gotta go. 666 00:33:15,191 --> 00:33:18,071 Speaker 1: It was two sixteen am when Fox News reported that 667 00:33:18,151 --> 00:33:20,631 Speaker 1: George W. Bush was the projected winner in Florida. 668 00:33:20,951 --> 00:33:22,950 Speaker 7: Fox is now projects George W. 669 00:33:23,031 --> 00:33:25,591 Speaker 11: Bush the winner in Florida, and thus it appears the 670 00:33:25,631 --> 00:33:28,191 Speaker 11: winner of the presidency of the United States. 671 00:33:29,911 --> 00:33:31,710 Speaker 1: Fox's call had been ordered by the head of the 672 00:33:31,711 --> 00:33:36,311 Speaker 1: network's decision desk, George Bush's cousin John Ellis. Within minutes, 673 00:33:36,431 --> 00:33:40,111 Speaker 1: the call was backed up by NBC, CBS, CNN, and ABC. 674 00:33:40,751 --> 00:33:43,391 Speaker 12: George Bush is the president of elect of the United States. 675 00:33:43,431 --> 00:33:46,431 Speaker 12: He has won the state of Florida. According to our projections. 676 00:33:45,991 --> 00:33:48,791 Speaker 2: Florida goes Busch. The presidency is Bush. 677 00:33:49,031 --> 00:33:49,471 Speaker 7: That's it. 678 00:33:49,951 --> 00:33:53,231 Speaker 2: Let's pause for a second. Let that sink in. Bush 679 00:33:53,271 --> 00:33:55,431 Speaker 2: wins if our CBS News. 680 00:33:55,191 --> 00:33:58,511 Speaker 1: As the election was over, George W. Bush was going 681 00:33:58,551 --> 00:33:59,151 Speaker 1: to be president. 682 00:33:59,951 --> 00:34:03,271 Speaker 12: The scene in Austin, Texas tonight, It's been a long, 683 00:34:03,391 --> 00:34:04,591 Speaker 12: suspenseful evening. 684 00:34:05,071 --> 00:34:08,751 Speaker 1: Carl Adelman declined to join the networks and projecting Florida 685 00:34:08,831 --> 00:34:12,831 Speaker 1: for Bush. The margin was just too narrow, so as 686 00:34:12,831 --> 00:34:16,791 Speaker 1: the calls came down, VNS stayed on the sidelines. Dlman 687 00:34:16,831 --> 00:34:18,511 Speaker 1: didn't think he had any other options. 688 00:34:19,071 --> 00:34:20,790 Speaker 4: If I put a message out, what am I going 689 00:34:20,871 --> 00:34:23,991 Speaker 4: to say? I think this was a bad call. Do 690 00:34:24,031 --> 00:34:25,631 Speaker 4: you really want to do that to four out of 691 00:34:25,671 --> 00:34:28,471 Speaker 4: the six people that pay your salary? You know, that's 692 00:34:28,671 --> 00:34:32,391 Speaker 4: I'm not going to do that, so I didn't do anything. 693 00:34:41,351 --> 00:34:44,830 Speaker 1: At his hotel suite in Nashville, al Gore was lying 694 00:34:44,871 --> 00:34:49,190 Speaker 1: on the floor watching television in silence when he saw 695 00:34:49,190 --> 00:34:52,551 Speaker 1: the networks flash their pre made banners that said President 696 00:34:52,591 --> 00:34:56,671 Speaker 1: elect George W. Bush. Gore turned to his staff and said, 697 00:34:57,311 --> 00:35:00,071 Speaker 1: I'm really grateful to you all. I want to concede. 698 00:35:00,631 --> 00:35:04,311 Speaker 1: I want to be gracious about this. At around two 699 00:35:04,351 --> 00:35:07,351 Speaker 1: thirty in the morning, Gore called Bush on the phone 700 00:35:07,551 --> 00:35:11,151 Speaker 1: and congratulated him on his victory. Then he got into 701 00:35:11,151 --> 00:35:13,431 Speaker 1: the limo that would drive him to the War Memorial 702 00:35:13,551 --> 00:35:15,151 Speaker 1: for what would be his concession speech. 703 00:35:15,671 --> 00:35:19,950 Speaker 5: Al Gore called George Bush on the telephone, congratulated him, 704 00:35:20,311 --> 00:35:24,271 Speaker 5: said he'd run a good campaign, words to that effect. 705 00:35:24,511 --> 00:35:26,991 Speaker 1: Gore's decision to concede was made so quickly that no 706 00:35:26,991 --> 00:35:29,031 Speaker 1: one from the candidate's inner circle had checked in with 707 00:35:29,111 --> 00:35:31,671 Speaker 1: Jenny Backus or the others still working in the boiler room. 708 00:35:31,871 --> 00:35:34,551 Speaker 17: It was maybe fifteen of us in the room at 709 00:35:34,551 --> 00:35:37,790 Speaker 17: that point because everyone was leaving to go down, but 710 00:35:37,871 --> 00:35:39,591 Speaker 17: Michael wasn't coming out of that room yet. 711 00:35:40,151 --> 00:35:43,471 Speaker 1: Michael was Michael Hooley, a Boston lawyer who was overseeing 712 00:35:43,471 --> 00:35:46,911 Speaker 1: the boiler room operation. Hooley's contact in Florida was a 713 00:35:46,951 --> 00:35:50,071 Speaker 1: field operative named Nick Baldick, and Nick Baldick had been 714 00:35:50,071 --> 00:35:53,551 Speaker 1: watching Bush's lead in the vote total steadily drop. Just 715 00:35:53,591 --> 00:35:56,111 Speaker 1: after three am, Bush was up by just forty six 716 00:35:56,230 --> 00:35:59,591 Speaker 1: hundred votes, a margin so narrow that, according to Florida law, 717 00:35:59,791 --> 00:36:01,750 Speaker 1: the race was headed for an automatic recount. 718 00:36:02,031 --> 00:36:04,710 Speaker 17: Michael said, you know, get in here like so I 719 00:36:04,750 --> 00:36:08,350 Speaker 17: went into the room. He put a Nick on speakerphone. Nick' 720 00:36:08,351 --> 00:36:12,671 Speaker 17: said Michael, we could win this. We should not be quitting. 721 00:36:13,190 --> 00:36:14,230 Speaker 17: You need to stop this. 722 00:36:16,071 --> 00:36:19,230 Speaker 1: Hooley, Bacchus and their colleagues rushed to contact anyone they 723 00:36:19,311 --> 00:36:21,911 Speaker 1: knew who might be with the vice president. The problem 724 00:36:21,951 --> 00:36:24,271 Speaker 1: was that he was already in transit, and they didn't 725 00:36:24,270 --> 00:36:26,310 Speaker 1: know exactly where he was or how to reach him. 726 00:36:26,631 --> 00:36:29,350 Speaker 17: We were not really paying attention to Gore. We were 727 00:36:29,471 --> 00:36:32,230 Speaker 17: so wrapped up in what they were saying about those 728 00:36:32,311 --> 00:36:35,911 Speaker 17: numbers and like it may not be over, and like 729 00:36:36,111 --> 00:36:38,230 Speaker 17: trying to do the math a hundred different ways. It 730 00:36:38,270 --> 00:36:39,991 Speaker 17: might not have occurred to Michael that he was actually 731 00:36:40,031 --> 00:36:42,790 Speaker 17: in the car, but we knew we had to get 732 00:36:42,831 --> 00:36:45,591 Speaker 17: to him. Like Gores going down to the motorcade and 733 00:36:45,631 --> 00:36:48,511 Speaker 17: their drive. You know, like it's all happening on live television. 734 00:36:49,991 --> 00:36:52,831 Speaker 7: How Gored now on his way to the War Memorial 735 00:36:52,831 --> 00:36:55,071 Speaker 7: Auditory of the vice presidential motorcade moving. 736 00:36:55,311 --> 00:36:57,111 Speaker 15: You just can't help but think that looks more like 737 00:36:57,190 --> 00:36:59,911 Speaker 15: a funeral procession tonight in a political procession. 738 00:37:00,151 --> 00:37:02,951 Speaker 1: Finally, Michael Hooley got word to a Gore aid who 739 00:37:02,991 --> 00:37:05,151 Speaker 1: was able to intercept the Vice president before he went 740 00:37:05,190 --> 00:37:08,991 Speaker 1: out on stage. Meanwhile, Beckus started calling everyone she knew 741 00:37:08,991 --> 00:37:10,951 Speaker 1: at the networks if she wanted to tell them that, 742 00:37:10,991 --> 00:37:14,591 Speaker 1: despite their earlier proclamations about Bush being president elect, Gore 743 00:37:14,710 --> 00:37:19,350 Speaker 1: was no longer planning to give up the fight. What 744 00:37:19,431 --> 00:37:28,391 Speaker 1: happens next after the break the first person Backus reached 745 00:37:28,431 --> 00:37:31,911 Speaker 1: with Michelle Jaconi, the young researcher at NBC who had 746 00:37:31,911 --> 00:37:35,151 Speaker 1: been obsessively watching Florida all night. She and Beachus had 747 00:37:35,190 --> 00:37:37,631 Speaker 1: first encountered each other while Jacony was doing her research 748 00:37:37,671 --> 00:37:38,991 Speaker 1: in preparation for election day. 749 00:37:39,591 --> 00:37:43,230 Speaker 16: And she says, Michelle, stop that reporting right now. I 750 00:37:43,230 --> 00:37:46,390 Speaker 16: can assuredly say al Gore is not going to concede. 751 00:37:46,551 --> 00:37:48,951 Speaker 16: And I said, can I report that on the record? 752 00:37:48,951 --> 00:37:52,551 Speaker 1: And she says yes, Jacconi rushed into the control room 753 00:37:52,591 --> 00:37:55,391 Speaker 1: and ran to the producer who was directing coverage future 754 00:37:55,431 --> 00:37:56,951 Speaker 1: CNN president Jeff Zucker. 755 00:37:57,951 --> 00:38:00,551 Speaker 16: My heart now is beating so fast and running outside 756 00:38:00,551 --> 00:38:02,270 Speaker 16: of the room, screaming into the phone. Now everybody in 757 00:38:02,311 --> 00:38:04,591 Speaker 16: the room is looking at me. I ducked down the hallway, 758 00:38:04,710 --> 00:38:07,471 Speaker 16: run into the control room, which is pitch black. Everybody 759 00:38:07,471 --> 00:38:10,430 Speaker 16: has headsets on except for Jeff Sucker. And Jeff'sucker, who's 760 00:38:10,471 --> 00:38:14,310 Speaker 16: running coverage, is standing up pacing, and I look at him, 761 00:38:14,351 --> 00:38:16,031 Speaker 16: and I have the phone to my ear, and I said, 762 00:38:16,511 --> 00:38:20,351 Speaker 16: al Gore is not going to concede. And he stops, 763 00:38:20,471 --> 00:38:24,031 Speaker 16: and he grabs my shirt and says, can I report that. 764 00:38:27,710 --> 00:38:30,510 Speaker 1: Jenny Bachus was watching the NBC newscast from the Gore 765 00:38:30,551 --> 00:38:34,551 Speaker 1: boiler room. By this point, Tom Brokaw and Tim Russard 766 00:38:34,551 --> 00:38:36,711 Speaker 1: had been making note of the razor thin margin between 767 00:38:36,710 --> 00:38:39,671 Speaker 1: Gore and Bush and wondering aloud why Bush had not 768 00:38:39,750 --> 00:38:41,511 Speaker 1: yet come out to deliver his victory speech. 769 00:38:41,551 --> 00:38:43,830 Speaker 12: I'm curious about why we're not seeing the governor yet. 770 00:38:43,871 --> 00:38:46,471 Speaker 1: They also began to familiarize themselves with the intricacies of 771 00:38:46,511 --> 00:38:49,311 Speaker 1: Florida election law, starting with the fact that the state's 772 00:38:49,311 --> 00:38:51,510 Speaker 1: top election official was the secretary of state. 773 00:38:51,951 --> 00:38:53,671 Speaker 12: Will someone find out for me whether the Secretary of 774 00:38:53,710 --> 00:38:57,471 Speaker 12: State is a Democrat or a Republican? Okay, he's a 775 00:38:57,471 --> 00:38:59,631 Speaker 12: Democrat or she is? Is it a man? 776 00:38:59,791 --> 00:38:59,911 Speaker 10: Who? 777 00:38:59,991 --> 00:39:02,310 Speaker 12: Do we know who that secretary of State is? Let's 778 00:39:02,311 --> 00:39:03,631 Speaker 12: try to find that out if we can. 779 00:39:03,671 --> 00:39:04,830 Speaker 15: Maybe we could talk to him or her. 780 00:39:04,991 --> 00:39:08,431 Speaker 12: Keep Yeah, we're working on that, We're told in the control. 781 00:39:08,190 --> 00:39:11,471 Speaker 1: Room, phone calls were flying between the network and the campaign. 782 00:39:12,631 --> 00:39:16,111 Speaker 1: Then an NBC reporter stationed in Nashville delivered the latest. 783 00:39:16,750 --> 00:39:19,270 Speaker 1: Gore had placed a second call to George Bush and 784 00:39:19,311 --> 00:39:20,831 Speaker 1: he had taken back his concession. 785 00:39:21,071 --> 00:39:25,830 Speaker 12: Claire ship and what do you have for US's. 786 00:39:24,031 --> 00:39:25,391 Speaker 4: How long we're hearing tonight? 787 00:39:25,471 --> 00:39:27,631 Speaker 5: Is it one of the reasons for al Gore's delay? 788 00:39:27,871 --> 00:39:30,511 Speaker 13: This is, according to some of his low level staffers, 789 00:39:30,871 --> 00:39:32,671 Speaker 13: as if he is actually. 790 00:39:32,311 --> 00:39:33,511 Speaker 16: Called George W. 791 00:39:33,591 --> 00:39:40,031 Speaker 4: Bush and taken back concession bone call, so an extraordinary move. 792 00:39:41,071 --> 00:39:42,711 Speaker 1: It was at around three point thirty in the morning 793 00:39:42,750 --> 00:39:45,230 Speaker 1: when al Gore placed that second call to George W. 794 00:39:45,311 --> 00:39:49,391 Speaker 1: Bush and retracted his concession. At four am, Gore's campaign 795 00:39:49,471 --> 00:39:52,511 Speaker 1: chairman Bill Day addressed the crowd of supporters gathered at 796 00:39:52,511 --> 00:39:53,190 Speaker 1: the War Memorial. 797 00:39:53,991 --> 00:39:56,470 Speaker 3: I'll let me say I've been in politics a very 798 00:39:56,471 --> 00:39:58,871 Speaker 3: long time, but I don't think there's ever been a 799 00:39:58,951 --> 00:40:03,790 Speaker 3: night like this one. Just an hour or so ago, 800 00:40:03,991 --> 00:40:08,551 Speaker 3: the TV networks called this race for Governor Bush. It 801 00:40:08,631 --> 00:40:13,031 Speaker 3: now appears, it now appears that their call was premature. 802 00:40:15,471 --> 00:40:19,390 Speaker 3: This is a very significant for most important reason, and 803 00:40:19,431 --> 00:40:23,031 Speaker 3: that is for under Florida state law, this triggers in 804 00:40:23,071 --> 00:40:27,551 Speaker 3: an automatic recount, and until the results in Florida become official, 805 00:40:28,151 --> 00:40:29,790 Speaker 3: our campaign continues. 806 00:40:31,351 --> 00:40:34,270 Speaker 1: On TV news, anchors tried to summon whatever authority they 807 00:40:34,311 --> 00:40:36,910 Speaker 1: had left to explain that Florida was once again being 808 00:40:36,911 --> 00:40:37,470 Speaker 1: pulled back. 809 00:40:37,710 --> 00:40:38,111 Speaker 10: I thank you. 810 00:40:38,351 --> 00:40:40,631 Speaker 2: I'm always reminded of those West Texas saloons where the 811 00:40:40,710 --> 00:40:43,031 Speaker 2: head a sign says, please don't shoot the piano player. 812 00:40:43,071 --> 00:40:45,270 Speaker 2: He's doing the best he can. And we do the 813 00:40:45,311 --> 00:40:48,270 Speaker 2: best we can on these calls. But we have to 814 00:40:48,311 --> 00:40:49,471 Speaker 2: stand up and take. 815 00:40:49,551 --> 00:40:52,071 Speaker 1: At Gore Headquarters, the boiler room that had been nearly 816 00:40:52,111 --> 00:40:55,350 Speaker 1: empty just a few minutes earlier slowly began to repopulate 817 00:40:55,391 --> 00:40:58,791 Speaker 1: with stunned campaign staffers. Here's Jenny Beckett again. 818 00:40:58,951 --> 00:41:01,111 Speaker 17: So some people start coming back, and they've been drinking, 819 00:41:01,151 --> 00:41:02,951 Speaker 17: and like they smelled a little bit like they had 820 00:41:02,991 --> 00:41:05,431 Speaker 17: been like, you know, having a bunch of beers moaning 821 00:41:05,431 --> 00:41:07,151 Speaker 17: the loss of the campaign, and then all of a sudden, 822 00:41:07,151 --> 00:41:08,991 Speaker 17: they're sort of like, oh my god, you sort of 823 00:41:09,031 --> 00:41:12,190 Speaker 17: have already mentally processed. I've played this game, I did 824 00:41:12,190 --> 00:41:14,471 Speaker 17: my best. All right, fine, I'm gonna drive my sorrows. 825 00:41:14,511 --> 00:41:16,270 Speaker 17: And then all of since, oops, I'm not gonna dry 826 00:41:16,351 --> 00:41:18,390 Speaker 17: my sorrows. I still have another two innings to play 827 00:41:18,511 --> 00:41:21,511 Speaker 17: or overtime. We're in overtime. That's what we were. 828 00:41:21,511 --> 00:41:25,751 Speaker 1: We're in overtime. If the Gore campaign in Nashville was euphoric, 829 00:41:26,071 --> 00:41:28,471 Speaker 1: their counterparts at Bush headquarters in Austin felt like they 830 00:41:28,511 --> 00:41:32,071 Speaker 1: had been hit by a truck. Everyone was exhausted and deflated, 831 00:41:32,750 --> 00:41:35,871 Speaker 1: and now the race wasn't even over here again is 832 00:41:35,911 --> 00:41:37,910 Speaker 1: Bush Media Consultants Stuart Stevens. 833 00:41:38,111 --> 00:41:39,830 Speaker 10: It's a weird feeling. I mean, you're prepared to win, 834 00:41:39,871 --> 00:41:41,631 Speaker 10: you're prepared to lose. To weird feeling. 835 00:41:42,631 --> 00:41:42,790 Speaker 2: You know. 836 00:41:42,831 --> 00:41:44,750 Speaker 10: I've been doing campaigns for a long time. I'm used 837 00:41:44,750 --> 00:41:48,270 Speaker 10: to that end of the world feeling when campaigns in 838 00:41:49,471 --> 00:41:53,111 Speaker 10: win or lose. I look forward to that. But this 839 00:41:53,311 --> 00:41:58,671 Speaker 10: was purgatory. It's like you know, watching a loved one 840 00:41:58,791 --> 00:42:00,750 Speaker 10: like go into the emergency room and wondering if they're 841 00:42:00,791 --> 00:42:03,551 Speaker 10: going to come out. It's like nothing you can do. 842 00:42:07,791 --> 00:42:10,551 Speaker 1: Over the next thirty six days, both sides would blame 843 00:42:10,551 --> 00:42:12,671 Speaker 1: the TV networks for stacking the decks against them with 844 00:42:12,710 --> 00:42:15,831 Speaker 1: their coverage of election night. The Bush side blamed NBC 845 00:42:15,991 --> 00:42:18,591 Speaker 1: for calling Florida before the polls were closed in the Panhandle. 846 00:42:19,270 --> 00:42:22,511 Speaker 1: The Gore side blamed Fox, especially John Ellis, for giving 847 00:42:22,511 --> 00:42:25,031 Speaker 1: Bush a temporary victory and setting up the narrative that 848 00:42:25,071 --> 00:42:27,391 Speaker 1: Gore was a sore loser trying to overturn the election. 849 00:42:28,270 --> 00:42:30,591 Speaker 1: As far apart as they wore on most issues, the 850 00:42:30,591 --> 00:42:33,871 Speaker 1: two campaigns agreed on this one thing. What the networks 851 00:42:33,871 --> 00:42:37,431 Speaker 1: did on Election Night two thousand had real world consequences. 852 00:42:37,991 --> 00:42:40,951 Speaker 17: The irony was as much as we honestly believe that 853 00:42:40,951 --> 00:42:42,791 Speaker 17: you don't want elections, so you have all the numbers. 854 00:42:43,151 --> 00:42:45,071 Speaker 17: In some ways, you can win or lose an election 855 00:42:45,991 --> 00:42:47,270 Speaker 17: based on what the TVs say. 856 00:42:48,511 --> 00:42:50,151 Speaker 1: I've been trying to think about what Backus might have 857 00:42:50,190 --> 00:42:52,711 Speaker 1: meant by that. On the face of it, it shouldn't 858 00:42:52,750 --> 00:42:54,471 Speaker 1: be possible for the outcome of an election to be 859 00:42:54,471 --> 00:42:56,430 Speaker 1: determined by what people are saying about it on TV. 860 00:42:57,471 --> 00:42:59,230 Speaker 1: The cause and effect arrow is supposed to point the 861 00:42:59,311 --> 00:43:02,391 Speaker 1: other way. First, the outcome is determined, and then the 862 00:43:02,391 --> 00:43:04,430 Speaker 1: people on TV try to explain why it came out 863 00:43:04,431 --> 00:43:07,190 Speaker 1: the way it did. The two thousand election and its 864 00:43:07,190 --> 00:43:11,270 Speaker 1: agonizing aftermath tested that natural state of affair. Starting with 865 00:43:11,351 --> 00:43:14,551 Speaker 1: Election Night, both campaigns had to ask themselves did the 866 00:43:14,631 --> 00:43:16,951 Speaker 1: narrative that emerged from media coverage have any bearing on 867 00:43:16,991 --> 00:43:18,591 Speaker 1: who got to be president? At the end of the story. 868 00:43:19,270 --> 00:43:21,310 Speaker 1: Did it matter what reporters and pundits said about what 869 00:43:21,391 --> 00:43:25,470 Speaker 1: was happening. It seems obvious there's a feedback loop between 870 00:43:25,511 --> 00:43:29,071 Speaker 1: perception and reality, but how that feedback loop actually works 871 00:43:29,151 --> 00:43:31,951 Speaker 1: is not self evident. What were the consequences of the 872 00:43:31,951 --> 00:43:34,151 Speaker 1: TV networks showing those graphics at two thirty in the 873 00:43:34,190 --> 00:43:36,671 Speaker 1: morning that said George W. Bush was the forty third 874 00:43:36,671 --> 00:43:39,591 Speaker 1: president of the United States. Did the fact that Bush 875 00:43:39,631 --> 00:43:43,190 Speaker 1: won and then unwon after Gore unconceded shape the way 876 00:43:43,230 --> 00:43:46,111 Speaker 1: the next thirty six days played out. I don't have 877 00:43:46,111 --> 00:43:49,230 Speaker 1: any definitive answers here, but I do see one way 878 00:43:49,270 --> 00:43:51,551 Speaker 1: in which the coverage of Election Knight had an unmistakable 879 00:43:51,591 --> 00:43:54,790 Speaker 1: impact on everything that came after. Between the Gore call 880 00:43:54,831 --> 00:43:56,870 Speaker 1: that turned out to be wrong and then the Bush 881 00:43:56,911 --> 00:43:59,351 Speaker 1: call that also turned out to be wrong, the American 882 00:43:59,351 --> 00:44:01,910 Speaker 1: people witnessed mistakes that had never been made on such 883 00:44:01,911 --> 00:44:06,551 Speaker 1: a spectacular scale before. And these mistakes were destabilizing, not 884 00:44:06,631 --> 00:44:09,350 Speaker 1: because they made everyone feel like they couldn't trust Tom Brokaw, 885 00:44:09,671 --> 00:44:12,031 Speaker 1: but because as they expanded the range of what was possible, 886 00:44:12,710 --> 00:44:15,230 Speaker 1: they underscored the futility of trying to predict what would 887 00:44:15,270 --> 00:44:22,871 Speaker 1: happen next. Murray Aidelman still vividly remembers the aftermath of 888 00:44:22,871 --> 00:44:25,551 Speaker 1: that night when the projection model he'd been using since 889 00:44:25,631 --> 00:44:29,071 Speaker 1: nineteen sixty seven went wobbly on him. He remembers it 890 00:44:29,111 --> 00:44:30,350 Speaker 1: as a turning point in his life. 891 00:44:30,951 --> 00:44:34,310 Speaker 4: I just remember having this really big heaviness over my 892 00:44:34,391 --> 00:44:40,631 Speaker 4: body and just so so depressed, and you know, it's 893 00:44:40,710 --> 00:44:45,310 Speaker 4: like these things used and counted on and suddenly they 894 00:44:45,351 --> 00:44:47,350 Speaker 4: all turned, you know. 895 00:44:48,991 --> 00:44:53,631 Speaker 1: After the election, vns's exit polling operation was widely blamed 896 00:44:53,671 --> 00:44:57,031 Speaker 1: for the blown calls in Florida. Adelman knew it wasn't 897 00:44:57,031 --> 00:44:59,830 Speaker 1: that simple. His exit poll in Florida had in fact 898 00:44:59,831 --> 00:45:03,390 Speaker 1: performed well. The survey results were within the margin of error. 899 00:45:04,351 --> 00:45:06,111 Speaker 1: It was just that the error in the exit poll 900 00:45:06,431 --> 00:45:08,551 Speaker 1: and the raw vote totals that came in early in 901 00:45:08,591 --> 00:45:12,750 Speaker 1: the evening both have and to favor Gore. Separately, the 902 00:45:12,831 --> 00:45:15,671 Speaker 1: vn S model had underestimated the number of absentee ballots, 903 00:45:15,710 --> 00:45:19,671 Speaker 1: which favored Bush. All that created what Aidelman now calls 904 00:45:19,791 --> 00:45:24,151 Speaker 1: a perfect storm. At the time, Aidelman was unable to 905 00:45:24,190 --> 00:45:26,471 Speaker 1: respond to the criticism of his exit polls because the 906 00:45:26,511 --> 00:45:28,991 Speaker 1: networks that paid his salary had instructed him not to comment. 907 00:45:29,791 --> 00:45:33,271 Speaker 1: It was painful for him. Adelman really believed in exit polls, 908 00:45:33,671 --> 00:45:36,190 Speaker 1: both as an analytical tool and as a means of 909 00:45:36,190 --> 00:45:40,190 Speaker 1: giving voice to demographic groups. During the nineties, Adelman had 910 00:45:40,230 --> 00:45:42,510 Speaker 1: pushed for VNS exit polls to include a question about 911 00:45:42,511 --> 00:45:46,351 Speaker 1: sexual orientation, a move that helped establish the LGBT community 912 00:45:46,391 --> 00:45:51,271 Speaker 1: as a political constituency with quantifiable voting power. In any event, 913 00:45:51,911 --> 00:45:54,750 Speaker 1: exit polls only contributed to the first Florida call, the 914 00:45:54,750 --> 00:45:57,991 Speaker 1: one for Gore. The later call, the one for Bush, 915 00:45:58,511 --> 00:46:00,271 Speaker 1: turned out to have been the result of a crucial 916 00:46:00,351 --> 00:46:03,551 Speaker 1: data entry error that inflated Bush's lead by twenty two 917 00:46:03,591 --> 00:46:06,871 Speaker 1: thousand votes just before Fox called the race in his favor. 918 00:46:09,190 --> 00:46:12,230 Speaker 1: VNS was ended in two thousand and three after its 919 00:46:12,230 --> 00:46:16,671 Speaker 1: computers crashed during the previous year's midterms. Warren Thetowski died 920 00:46:16,710 --> 00:46:19,551 Speaker 1: in two thousand and six, and Adelman spoke at his funeral. 921 00:46:20,631 --> 00:46:24,031 Speaker 1: He still believes in the value of projecting elections. He 922 00:46:24,071 --> 00:46:27,151 Speaker 1: doesn't think two thousand proved it's not worth doing, or 923 00:46:27,190 --> 00:46:29,230 Speaker 1: that there's something inherently irresponsible about it. 924 00:46:29,911 --> 00:46:32,111 Speaker 4: Your job is to call races. Your job is to 925 00:46:32,151 --> 00:46:36,631 Speaker 4: look at data and decide. And it's always safer to wait. 926 00:46:38,031 --> 00:46:40,750 Speaker 4: It's always safer to not say anything. But then you're 927 00:46:40,791 --> 00:46:44,430 Speaker 4: not doing what you're there for. That's what the job 928 00:46:44,591 --> 00:46:47,911 Speaker 4: is is. The job is taking risks. If you didn't 929 00:46:47,991 --> 00:46:51,350 Speaker 4: take a risk, who needs a decision person If you're 930 00:46:51,351 --> 00:46:52,831 Speaker 4: going to wait till it's one hundred percent. 931 00:46:59,991 --> 00:47:02,710 Speaker 1: Just after four am, the Gore campaign was scrambling to 932 00:47:02,831 --> 00:47:06,190 Speaker 1: charter a plane from Nashville to Florida. Jill Alper, a 933 00:47:06,190 --> 00:47:09,551 Speaker 1: political consultant working with the DNC, was tasked with rounding 934 00:47:09,631 --> 00:47:13,111 Speaker 1: up Gor staffers for the flight. Alper had spent election 935 00:47:13,190 --> 00:47:15,711 Speaker 1: Day in the boiler room with Jenny Bachus and Michael Hooley. 936 00:47:16,311 --> 00:47:18,270 Speaker 1: Now that it was over, or rather now that it 937 00:47:18,270 --> 00:47:20,310 Speaker 1: had failed to end, she was in charge of the 938 00:47:20,311 --> 00:47:21,871 Speaker 1: logistics of whatever happened next. 939 00:47:22,230 --> 00:47:25,111 Speaker 13: I remember saying, you know, gee, what I need as 940 00:47:25,111 --> 00:47:28,190 Speaker 13: a plane, and somebody saying, oh, right, well, we have 941 00:47:28,230 --> 00:47:32,431 Speaker 13: the Liberman plane and we had a scheduling and advanced 942 00:47:32,471 --> 00:47:35,951 Speaker 13: operation right there, so they could start, you know, renting 943 00:47:35,991 --> 00:47:40,991 Speaker 13: cars and finding hotel rooms and putting the logistics into place. 944 00:47:41,511 --> 00:47:44,830 Speaker 1: Joe Lieberman's plane had seventy two seats, and Alper wanted 945 00:47:44,831 --> 00:47:47,270 Speaker 1: to fill all of them. By four point thirty in 946 00:47:47,311 --> 00:47:49,871 Speaker 1: the morning, there were more than one hundred staffers waiting 947 00:47:49,911 --> 00:47:50,310 Speaker 1: to get on. 948 00:47:50,871 --> 00:47:53,391 Speaker 13: People ran back to their hotel rooms and their apartments 949 00:47:53,391 --> 00:47:56,390 Speaker 13: and got their things, and you know, off we went. 950 00:47:56,471 --> 00:47:58,871 Speaker 13: And when we were on the plane, we used the 951 00:47:58,911 --> 00:48:03,151 Speaker 13: PA system to train folks. While we were flying. 952 00:48:02,871 --> 00:48:06,591 Speaker 1: Down, someone christened the plane Recount one. It left the 953 00:48:06,631 --> 00:48:08,991 Speaker 1: cold dark of Nashville just as the sun was rising. 954 00:48:09,391 --> 00:48:12,430 Speaker 1: While some staff read up on recount strategy, others tried 955 00:48:12,471 --> 00:48:14,790 Speaker 1: to get as much sleep as they could. Many had 956 00:48:14,791 --> 00:48:16,071 Speaker 1: been up for twenty four hours. 957 00:48:16,431 --> 00:48:20,711 Speaker 13: People were tired, and it was intense, but the moment 958 00:48:20,750 --> 00:48:23,911 Speaker 13: was not lost on all of us that it was unusual. 959 00:48:24,671 --> 00:48:26,991 Speaker 13: Who would ever thought, right, you'd be on a plane 960 00:48:27,270 --> 00:48:30,631 Speaker 13: heading to Florida to start a recount that could determine 961 00:48:30,750 --> 00:48:32,270 Speaker 13: who the president is. 962 00:48:34,431 --> 00:48:37,190 Speaker 1: When the Gore plane landed in Tallahassee, Joe Alper looked 963 00:48:37,230 --> 00:48:40,710 Speaker 1: out her window. The Florida sun was shining, and there 964 00:48:40,750 --> 00:48:43,471 Speaker 1: on the tarmac was the plane of Governor Jeb Bush. 965 00:48:44,311 --> 00:48:47,911 Speaker 13: At this point, it was like really clear that there 966 00:48:47,991 --> 00:48:50,870 Speaker 13: was going to be a showdown in Florida, right. I mean, 967 00:48:50,911 --> 00:48:54,591 Speaker 13: we already knew we were into serious stuff, but they 968 00:48:54,591 --> 00:49:09,991 Speaker 13: were just right there. 969 00:49:09,351 --> 00:49:12,151 Speaker 1: On the next step. So to Fiasco, how a national 970 00:49:12,190 --> 00:49:15,751 Speaker 1: election turned into a local story about Palm Beach County. 971 00:49:16,111 --> 00:49:19,471 Speaker 1: The butterfly bell was one way of signifying that something 972 00:49:19,551 --> 00:49:25,871 Speaker 1: had gone horribly wrong with this election. Fiasco is a 973 00:49:25,871 --> 00:49:29,631 Speaker 1: production of Prolog Projects, and it's distributed by Pushkin Industries. 974 00:49:30,551 --> 00:49:34,591 Speaker 1: The show is produced by Andrew Parsons, Madelin kaplan Ula Culpa, 975 00:49:34,831 --> 00:49:38,871 Speaker 1: and me Leon Nafock. Our script editor was Daniel Riley. 976 00:49:39,391 --> 00:49:43,151 Speaker 1: Our editorial consultant was Camilla Hammer, and we received additional 977 00:49:43,270 --> 00:49:46,951 Speaker 1: editorial support from Lisa Chase. Our music and score are 978 00:49:46,951 --> 00:49:50,031 Speaker 1: by Nick Sylvester of god Mode, with additional music from 979 00:49:50,031 --> 00:49:54,310 Speaker 1: Alexis Quadrado. Our theme song is by Spatial Relations. Our 980 00:49:54,391 --> 00:49:58,391 Speaker 1: artwork is by Teddy Blanks at Chips and Y Audio 981 00:49:58,391 --> 00:50:01,911 Speaker 1: mixed by Rob Buyers, Michael Raphael and Johnny Vince Evans 982 00:50:01,951 --> 00:50:06,190 Speaker 1: of Final Final V two Special thanks to Luminary for 983 00:50:06,230 --> 00:50:09,071 Speaker 1: a list of books, articles, and documentaries that we relied 984 00:50:09,071 --> 00:50:11,831 Speaker 1: on in our research. Click the link in the show notes. 985 00:50:12,631 --> 00:50:15,551 Speaker 1: Thanks to the NBC News Archive and CNN for the 986 00:50:15,631 --> 00:50:19,031 Speaker 1: archival material you heard in today's show. Thanks for listening.