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Speaker 1: On this episode of the News World. In their new book,

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Speaker 1: The New Imperialists, Herman perchher Elon Bourban deliver eye opening

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Speaker 1: details of how three major global players, Russia, China and

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Speaker 1: Iran are working with each other and with key allies

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Speaker 1: such as North Korea and Venezuela to unseat the US

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Speaker 1: as a global leader. The challenge is profound and requires

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Speaker 1: both leadership and action from Washington. President Trump acted decisively

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Speaker 1: to capture and arrest Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and his

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Speaker 1: wife Celia Flores at their residence in Caracas on January third,

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Speaker 1: and bring them to justice in the United States. I

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Speaker 1: am really pleased to welcome both of my guests, good

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Speaker 1: friends and extraordinary scale Herman Perchsner and Elon Berman from

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Speaker 1: the American Foreign Policy Council, a nonprofit public policy organization

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Speaker 1: headquartered in Washington, d C. Herman and Elon, welcome and

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Speaker 1: thank you for joining me on Newtsort.

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Speaker 2: Pleasure to be with you as always, Thanks so much

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Speaker 2: for having us.

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Speaker 1: We ought to start, I think working our way back

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Speaker 1: into the thesis of your book with the most recent

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Speaker 1: events in Venezuela, because for a very long time, as

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Speaker 1: you know Venezuela is a very prosperous, very stable country.

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Speaker 1: Then Hugo Shavez came along, and at his death he

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Speaker 1: was followed by Maduro and suddenly you're in a different world,

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Speaker 1: both in domestic terms and in terms of their international behavior.

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Speaker 1: Can you sort of give us an overview of what

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Speaker 1: was at stake in Venezuela and what Trump's actions mean.

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Speaker 3: Alan, You've had a good conversation on this recently. Why

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Speaker 3: don't you start?

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Speaker 4: I did, and so I think the background here and

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Speaker 4: sort of the way it ties into that larger frame

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Speaker 4: is that Venezuela isn't always talked about in the same

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Speaker 4: breath as Russia, China, Iran, but it's a very important

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Speaker 4: supporting player because precisely as a result of that reorientation

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Speaker 4: of the country that Jabez did when he came into

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Speaker 4: office in two thousand and three, and then the rapid

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Speaker 4: expansion of his personal ties, including most notably with the

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Speaker 4: Iranian president at the time, Ahmudahmadi and Najad when he

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Speaker 4: was elected in two thousand and five, Venezuela has really

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Speaker 4: positioned itself as a beach head for this anti American

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Speaker 4: axis in the Western hemisphere. And that played I think

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Speaker 4: a big role in the context of what the Trump

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Speaker 4: administration was thinking. There is a conversation to be had

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Speaker 4: about Venezuela's role in drugs, Venezrael's role in the ilicit economy,

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Speaker 4: but the name of the game here, I think, is

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Speaker 4: an expanded version of homeland defense. The Trump administration, in

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Speaker 4: its national security strategy late last year, outlined that the

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Speaker 4: Western Hemisphere is most important in its calculations because of

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Speaker 4: homeland security reasons, and also made very clear that the

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Speaker 4: administration is prepared to take a more activist role in

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Speaker 4: the region to prevent crime, prevent drug smuggling, and prevent

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Speaker 4: the activities of illicit actors and strategic adversaries. And Venezuela

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Speaker 4: over the last twenty twenty five years has really become

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Speaker 4: a hub for that. So it's a very logical place

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Speaker 4: for the administration to start having.

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Speaker 1: Marco Rubio is sort of perfect if you're trying to

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Speaker 1: develop a Western Hemisphere strategy. His parents both came from Cuba.

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Speaker 1: He of course grew up in Miami politics. He thoroughly

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Speaker 1: understands the region to what extent. In that sense, was

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Speaker 1: the replacement of Maduro a geopolitical event vastly bigger than

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Speaker 1: either oil or the drug deals, that there was something

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Speaker 1: between Russia, Iran China that was really growing into a

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Speaker 1: tremendous danger that really had not been very much described

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Speaker 1: in the American media, although people in Capitol Hill had

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Speaker 1: been having hearings and have been warning about it. To

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Speaker 1: what degree does the Trump decision to go after Maduro

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Speaker 1: actually throw down a gauntlet to both of our biggest

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Speaker 1: international competitors, Russia and China.

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Speaker 3: You were lingering thoughts in Beijing and Moscow that it's

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Speaker 3: Taco Trump. Trump always chickens out, and though they received

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Speaker 3: some pause after the bombing of Iran, the fact that

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Speaker 3: he was able to act decisively I think will force

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Speaker 3: a recalculation in both Beijing and Moscow in terms of

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Speaker 3: the Ukraine War, in terms of further Chinese action against Taiwan,

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Speaker 3: I think that's the biggest impact. Of course, there'll be

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Speaker 3: resistance inside of Venzauela that will be stoked by those actors,

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Speaker 3: and we have to see how things play out over

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Speaker 3: the next few months. But in the short term, it

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Speaker 3: gives pauls to our enemies in terms of what Trump

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Speaker 3: may do next, and that makes American diplomacy stronger.

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Speaker 1: The Chevez Maduro machine is pretty big and is pretty ruthless,

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Speaker 1: and has driven eight million people into leaving the country.

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Speaker 1: Who's about twenty nine and a half left. I think,

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Speaker 1: to what extent do you think the underlying patterns of

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Speaker 1: the Maduro dictatorship will survive? Partially why lying will survive

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Speaker 1: the Trump approach of trying to intimidate them but not

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Speaker 1: occupy them.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think it remains to be seen, precisely because,

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Speaker 4: as you point out, this is a large edifice. This

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Speaker 4: isn't just one leader or a small cadre of people.

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Speaker 4: This is a state that has been structured and wired

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Speaker 4: for this sort of anti American cooperation with Russia, with China,

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Speaker 4: with Iran and so Securio State Marco Rubio over the

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Speaker 4: weekend on Meet the Press, when he was asked about

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Speaker 4: how the administration was thinking about Venezuela, he made clear

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Speaker 4: that he thinks, and the president thinks, that this is

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Speaker 4: much more of a criminal enterprise than it is a state.

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Speaker 2: But those same rules attached.

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Speaker 4: Now, if you tackle a criminal enterprise and you simply

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Speaker 4: remove the head, the boss, the don whoever it is,

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Speaker 4: and the enterprise remains intact, it can still do nefarious things.

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Speaker 4: So the real challenge, as I see it, for the

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Speaker 4: administration in weeks ahead, is look at Venezuela not simply

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Speaker 4: as a leadership replacement strategy, but also understand that it's

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Speaker 4: the regime itself that was facilitating cooperation, facilitating tacking energy transfers,

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Speaker 4: facilitating passports for terrorist elements, for elements of Iran's clerical army.

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Speaker 4: Things like that are deeply entrench in the system, and

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Speaker 4: our success is going to be measured by whether or

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Speaker 4: not we can reap that out as well.

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Speaker 3: The question is how successful will the Trump administration's negotiations

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Speaker 3: with Maduro's number two be. I think the sentiment is

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Speaker 3: if the foreign actors, the Cuban military troops, are kicked out,

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Speaker 3: if oil is resumed to production and American interest in

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Speaker 3: the oil companies are reinstated, maybe you can deal with

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Speaker 3: elements of that regime. But as Elon said, it's not

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Speaker 3: clear how this will play out at this point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I have to ask also, Armon, given your extraordinary

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Speaker 1: knowledge of Russia, were you surprised at their effort at

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Speaker 1: reflagging the tanker and then running a bluff with the

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Speaker 1: submarine and then collapsing so decisively.

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Speaker 3: Well, when Russians are on the ropes there's a KGB,

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Speaker 3: they try to be even more threatening right before they cave.

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Speaker 3: And I think the massive misattack on Fiev last night

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Speaker 3: and Leviv sending the submarine to shadow the tanker, these

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Speaker 3: are all signs of pressure being felled in Moscow. An

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Speaker 3: interesting question is, though, what is on that tanker there

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Speaker 3: arrested out tanker that justified the deployment of a nuclear submarine,

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Speaker 3: and I think it'll be very interesting to know what

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Speaker 3: they were carrying and what are people found now that

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Speaker 3: the tanker has been warded and is under American control.

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Speaker 1: I'm assuming because the Russians have had a military advisory

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Speaker 1: group in Venezuela, I'm assuming that forcing them out would

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Speaker 1: be one of the early goals of the Trump administration.

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Speaker 4: I think so, and I think even more so than

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Speaker 4: the Russians. I mean, that's certainly a goal, but precisely

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Speaker 4: because as you know, personnel's policy. One of the issues

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Speaker 4: that Marco Rubio, the current Secretary of State, when he

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Speaker 4: was still a senator, was very focused on was the

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Speaker 4: connection between the Venezuelan regime and Iranian penetration into the Americas.

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Speaker 4: So there's concern about Russia, certainly, but I think there's

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Speaker 4: a generalized sense, if I can sort of impute from

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Speaker 4: my conversations, there's a generalized sense that Iran is the

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Speaker 4: more immediately active actor, because Iran is moving around in

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Speaker 4: Latin America, not just as a state but also through

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Speaker 4: its proxies groups like his Bublah, which are leveraging the

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Speaker 4: very robust Lebanese diaspora communities that exist across the Americas.

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Speaker 4: And so Russia is certainly a focus, but I think

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Speaker 4: Iran is more urgent.

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Speaker 1: I read a report that the Iranians actually had a

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Speaker 1: reached in agreement to build a factory for drones that

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Speaker 1: could have reached South Florida. That struck me both as

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Speaker 1: really unwise on the part of Venezuela, But I mean

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Speaker 1: that would have been a genuine threat if they had

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Speaker 1: been able to compleep none.

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Speaker 4: And by the way, I think it bears noting because

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Speaker 4: not nearly enough people know this. It's sort of been

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Speaker 4: memory hold and we don't really talk about it anymore.

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Speaker 4: But between two thousand and five and the end of

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Speaker 4: last decade, there were no fewer and probably more than

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Speaker 4: three Iranian inspired sponsored attacks originating in Latin America that

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Speaker 4: attempted to carry out terrorism in the US homeland. There

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Speaker 4: was a Iranian inspired plot in two thousand and seven

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Speaker 4: to mobilize a Guianese national to blow up the fuel

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Speaker 4: tanks underneath JFK Airport in New York. There was that

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Speaker 4: famous attempted assassination by the IRGC, working through proxies of

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Speaker 4: the Saudi ambassador to the United States at the time,

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Speaker 4: at the restaurant Cafe Milano here in town. And the

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Speaker 4: same year there was an attempt that was thankfully thwarted

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Speaker 4: by Iranian and Venezuelan diplomats working jointly to carry out

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Speaker 4: cyber attacks on critical infrastructure nodes in the United States.

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Speaker 4: These were all thwarted, These were all apprehended. But it

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Speaker 4: really gives you a flavor of the fact that Iran

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Speaker 4: at least thinks about Latin America not just as a

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Speaker 4: area of economic opportunity, but as a potential staging brad.

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Speaker 1: Before we had done further and around what you want

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Speaker 1: to do. If you looked at how decisively we penetrated

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Speaker 1: Venezuelan airspace, and then you look back at how decisively

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Speaker 1: we penetrated the Iranian airspace. Don't the Russians and the

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Speaker 1: Chinese have to have a sort of crisis of confidence

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Speaker 1: in their weapons systems that they may literally be a

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Speaker 1: generation out of sync with what we're capable of.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think Russian arms sales are not in a

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Speaker 3: bullish position worldwide because everybody's noted the problems. An interesting

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Speaker 3: fact came to my attention recently. In three days, the

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Speaker 3: Ukraine Russian War will have gone on longer than the

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Speaker 3: Great Patriotic War, which is the Soviet Union's name for

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Speaker 3: World War II. In World War II, in that period

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Speaker 3: of time they went from Operation Barbara Rosa to the

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Speaker 3: Brandenburg Gate. And what have they done against little Ukraine

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Speaker 3: one percent of the territory in the last year. So

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Speaker 3: Russian arms are not seen to be up to snuff

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Speaker 3: and militarily is seen to be a bit of a

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Speaker 3: paper tiger.

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Speaker 1: Now to what acent does the dominance of the American

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Speaker 1: air systems. You have to give Jijinping some caution about

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Speaker 1: trying to cross the streets of Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think the lessons of American air defense and

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Speaker 3: Ukrainian drones are causing a rethink in Beijing, but I

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Speaker 3: do not. As we've documented in the book, that Beijing

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Speaker 3: has become ever more aggressive in dealing with Taiwan in

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Speaker 3: terms of invading their defense zone, their airspace, and the

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Speaker 3: number of incursions continue to go up dramatically, and some

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Speaker 3: people are thinking a blockade of Taiwan may be possible.

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Speaker 3: But again, these recent activities by the Trump administration will

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Speaker 3: cause a rethinking and we'll see how that affects actual activity.

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Speaker 1: I actually thought the recent two day exercise was virtually

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Speaker 1: everything they would have to do to set the stage

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Speaker 1: for an attack. On the other hand, at some level

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Speaker 1: that must occur to them that if we could achieve

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Speaker 1: the same level of dominance over the Taiwan area that

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Speaker 1: we've now achieved over Iran in Venezuela, that the second

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Speaker 1: day of the attack might be really bad. But let

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Speaker 1: me go to your point, which I think is at

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Speaker 1: the heart of this book, and I also want to

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Speaker 1: ask you before we get totally into the book. You

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Speaker 1: have a brand new publication that you are developing that

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Speaker 1: I think people need to be aware of, and that's

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Speaker 1: part of the extraordinary work that you do at the

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Speaker 1: American Foreign Policy Council. Could you describe your new publication,

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Speaker 1: why you're doing it, why people might want to subscribe

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Speaker 1: and be part of it.

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Speaker 4: This is all me because I'm heading up the project,

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Speaker 4: but thank you for the advanced promotion.

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Speaker 2: Always good to get the word out.

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Speaker 4: The idea that we had and we've been just stating

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Speaker 4: this for a couple of years, is the fact that

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Speaker 4: as the American political environment and as American thought on

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Speaker 4: national security and foreign policy unfortunately becomes more and more

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Speaker 4: part is it, it also becomes more and more siloed. People

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Speaker 4: read the publications that agree with them. You get confirmation bias.

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Speaker 4: People don't read as widely as they should, and people

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Speaker 4: in physicians of power aren't really hearing the compelling arguments

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Speaker 4: that they need in order to make decisions properly. And

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Speaker 4: so out of that was born this idea of planting

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Speaker 4: a flag and launching a new journal, a new quarterly

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Speaker 4: journal of ideas that would look at the foreign policy

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Speaker 4: and national security space and talk about it in the context,

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Speaker 4: talk about emerging issues and really consequential global trends in

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Speaker 4: a way that really unifies a lot of the voices

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Speaker 4: and really brings out a lot of the voices that

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Speaker 4: aren't as loud or as prominent as they should be

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Speaker 4: right now, and talking about how regions are connected globally,

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Speaker 4: what trend lines are consequential for decision makers in Washington.

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Speaker 4: And so the publication is called state Craft and Strategy.

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Speaker 4: The first issue comes out in March in the spring,

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Speaker 4: and it's going to feature not just a collection of

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Speaker 4: articles on.

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Speaker 2: A specific theme.

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Speaker 4: The first issue is going to cover counter terrorism strategy,

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Speaker 4: but it also features decision makers and statesman interviews like

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Speaker 4: with yourself right, thank you for sort of sitting with

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Speaker 4: me for that first interview. But also something that frankly

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Speaker 4: isn't really captured in the way the Congress in particular

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Speaker 4: is interacting with the world, which is, if you've noticed,

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Speaker 4: Congress tends to travel. I mean, they still do congressional delegations,

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Speaker 4: but they tend to travel less than they did when

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Speaker 4: you were in the Chamber, and as a result, a

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Speaker 4: lot of the insights that they would otherwise get from

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Speaker 4: on the ground where it actually matters are really lost.

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Speaker 4: So one of the features that we've developed in the journal,

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Speaker 4: which I think will really be super interesting for people

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Speaker 4: and positions of power, is a global perspective where you

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Speaker 4: have contributions from officials or from leading subject matter experts

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Speaker 4: in various regions, whether it's Asia, the Middle East, or Europe,

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Speaker 4: essentially talking about ground level insights, whether it's from Warsaw, Poland,

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Speaker 4: or from Tel Aviv, Israel, or wherever it is what

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Speaker 4: they're seeing that is missing in the larger discussion.

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Speaker 1: You have a new book, The New Imperialist, which is

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Speaker 1: essentially arguing that there's a network of people who are

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Speaker 1: trying to reorganize the world into an anti democracy, anti freedom,

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Speaker 1: authoritarian collective. It is a collective, looting organization that doesn't

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Speaker 1: fit normal political science models. At the same time, you

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Speaker 1: now have this brand new publication coming up. To what

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Speaker 1: extent will your new publication be informed by or shaped

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Speaker 1: by this global sense of the competition between free societies

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Speaker 1: and these new imperialists.

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Speaker 4: I think that's precisely the sweet spot. One of the

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Speaker 4: things that we wrestle with a lot at the American

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Speaker 4: Foreign Policy Council is the fact that we're looking at

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Speaker 4: different portfolios. Herman, he's been to Russia more times than

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Speaker 4: Russians at this point. I spent a lot of time

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Speaker 4: in the Middle East and in Africa. But the extent

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Speaker 4: to which there's connective tissue between these different regions and

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Speaker 4: having a global view of these different conflicts, whether it's

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Speaker 4: Chinese intentions against Taiwan or Russian predation on Ukraine. We'll

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Speaker 4: have to wait and see what happens with Iran, but

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Speaker 4: the Islamac Republic traditionally has thought of itself as the

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Speaker 4: geopolitical center of gravity in the Middle East. How these

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Speaker 4: countries move around in their respective regions has bearing on

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Speaker 4: what the other players do as well. So I think

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Speaker 4: it's very useful to have that sixty thousand foot perspective

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Speaker 4: where we're actually looking at everything that's moving around, and

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Speaker 4: so I think the journal is going to try very

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Speaker 4: hard to bring that out.

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Speaker 1: And I think you're onto something if you think of

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Speaker 1: them as the next wave of imperialism. But you know,

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Speaker 1: a tricky kind of area. Talk to me about how

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Speaker 1: you see what Trump is trying to achieve in Greenland,

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Speaker 1: because in some ways it has a little sense of

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Speaker 1: imperialism itself.

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Speaker 3: I think Greenland ties very much into our theme and

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Speaker 3: the new imperialists, because Russia has claims not just to

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Speaker 3: the former Soviet states, but to territory that belongs to Sweden, Norway, Finland,

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Speaker 3: and of course Denmark, which has control over Greenland. And

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Speaker 3: I think that we've as little known that Russia claims

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Speaker 3: three hundred thousand square miles that rightly belong to the

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Speaker 3: Danish economic Zone or Greenland economic zone. So Greenland ties

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Speaker 3: into the imperial ambitions in Russia. And that's a point

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Speaker 3: that I think we have not stressed enough. Greenland is

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Speaker 3: necessarily to American defense. It's valuable for rare earth and

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Speaker 3: everything else, but most importantly, it's central to protecting American

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Speaker 3: interest in the Arctic and protecting defense of the homeland.

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Speaker 2: Two tiny editions here is.

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Speaker 4: First of all, it's useful to remember that this isn't

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Speaker 4: a Trump project, that this has been a project that's

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Speaker 4: been floated before President Trump made it an issue something

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Speaker 4: like half a dozen times by various presidents and various administrations.

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Speaker 4: Because the strategic logic of a widened American stake in

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Speaker 4: Greenland makes sense, and it makes sense across administrations as

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Speaker 4: an early warning outpost, as an ability to have an

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Speaker 4: expanded sphere of hemispheric defense. And that's why, frankly, the

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Speaker 4: Greenland issue is coming up right now, because as the

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Speaker 4: administration focuses on the Western Hemisphere more and more in

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Speaker 4: its expansive view, it sees Greenland as part of that. Now,

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Speaker 4: the second point is a note of caution because this

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Speaker 4: is a Danish territory right now. The implications for transatlantic

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Speaker 4: relations of greater a more forceful American claim to Greenland

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Speaker 4: becomes enormously disruptive for Europe. And my hope is that

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Speaker 4: the Administration navigates this very judiciously, because there's a lot

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Speaker 4: to preserve in the Transatlantic relationship despite all of the

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Speaker 4: demerits that the White House rightly highlights.

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Speaker 3: Just a quick add on to that, you know, in

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Speaker 3: nineteen seventeen the US bought the Virgin Islands from Denmark.

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Speaker 3: It was a sale, and we try to buy Greenland

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Speaker 3: at the same time, and there were efforts after World

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Speaker 3: War Two. So no matter the decade or the administration,

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Speaker 3: Greenland has been seen central to American interests, and it's

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Speaker 3: more so now than ever before because of technological advances.

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Speaker 3: It makes a Ford defense more necessary.

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Speaker 1: And also relates to controlling exploitation of Arctic resources and

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Speaker 1: the potential increase in the Arctic being an ocean way

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Speaker 1: that's dramatically shorter to go from China to Europe by

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Speaker 1: way of the Arctic rather than going around and the

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Speaker 1: way we currently do to what he sent is a

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Speaker 1: very serious economic problem.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, China now builds more ice breakers in the US

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Speaker 3: and Canada combined, and they plan to be a power there.

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Speaker 3: Russia's investment in military assets along the Arctic coast and

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Speaker 3: ice breakers is also substantial, and we are behind the

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Speaker 3: curve in dealing with both the defense and economic ramifications

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Speaker 3: of their activity in the Arctic. We're behind the curve.

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Speaker 3: We're paying attention.

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Speaker 1: Now the number of places where the Trump administration is

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Speaker 1: trying to fill the gap that had been left by

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Speaker 1: a generation of neglect. Now I mean not just to

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Speaker 1: buy an administration, but a long period with the bureaucracies,

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Speaker 1: a just tolerated decay. There's an astonishing amount of work

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Speaker 1: underway trying to sort all this stuff out. I find

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Speaker 1: I've spent about three hours a day just trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out what's going on. I mean, I've never seen

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Speaker 1: anything like.

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Speaker 2: It, but there's certainly a lot going on.

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Speaker 4: And to the point of the conversation we were having earlier,

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Speaker 4: it's not that there's a lot going on and it's

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Speaker 4: not connected. We try to draw this out in the

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Speaker 4: book to the extent that we can. But the type

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Speaker 4: of activity that you see China carrying out in the

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Speaker 4: Indo Pacific, the type of activity that you see Russia

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Speaker 4: engaging in in terms of influence, in terms of political

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Speaker 4: meddling in Europe, these all have bearings on one another.

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Speaker 4: There are essentially stress testing strategies that might work in

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Speaker 4: other theaters, and that's why you see this very ominous convergence.

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Speaker 4: There's another thing which I think is really important. It's

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Speaker 4: what's sort of the driving engine behind the type of

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Speaker 4: cooperation between Russia and China and Iran that you're seeing.

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Speaker 4: And it's why Nude, it's why you're spending so much

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Speaker 4: time focusing on sort of what's happening globally. It's because

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Speaker 4: these imperial drives are, at least for the moment, they're complementary.

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Speaker 4: Nothing that China does in the Indo Pacific is really

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Speaker 4: going to keep the Iranian iatolas up at night. Nothing

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Speaker 4: that Iran, if it survives the current bout of protest

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Speaker 4: that Iran does in the Strait of Foremus, is necessarily

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Speaker 4: going to be fundamentally destabilizing to Russia. Now, these things

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Speaker 4: may change there are areas of contestation. Famously, Russia and

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Speaker 4: China I would argue right late at night if they

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Speaker 4: had enough to drink. Russian and Chinese officials would disagree

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Speaker 4: over the disposition of the Russian Far East. They would

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Speaker 4: disagree over the disposition of Central Asia. But those are

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Speaker 4: battles for another time. Right now, there's much more commonality

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Speaker 4: and convergence than there is divergence, and that's why you're

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Speaker 4: seeing all this interplay on a bilateral or trilateral level

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Speaker 4: on military exercises and economic coordination and disinformation and many

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Speaker 4: other fields.

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Speaker 2: Besides, given all that, you.

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Speaker 1: Know when you talk about the new IMPERIALUS and then

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Speaker 1: it's clear they have some kind of broad coalition. But

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Speaker 1: we were actually pretty brilliant coming out of World War Two.

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Speaker 1: We actually established institutions that did a lot to balance

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Speaker 1: the Soviet Union and contain it. Do you sense any

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Speaker 1: level of coordinated planning at sort of that level between

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Speaker 1: these countries.

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Speaker 3: I think certainly it's true between Russia and China. At

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Speaker 3: this point, they've concluded numerous agreements and we have no

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Speaker 3: idea what the secret protocols are, but they're increased weapons sales.

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Speaker 3: China's very aggressive support of Russia and the war against Ukraine,

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Speaker 3: the question of working together with Iran to avoid sanctions,

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Speaker 3: coordination of information warfare. All that is gradually, i think,

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Speaker 3: being formalized, as opposed to something that began as ad

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Speaker 3: hoc operations.

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Speaker 4: And the flip side of that is in between the

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Speaker 4: United States and America's allies in the West, there's less

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Speaker 4: cooperation than is desired, there's less attention, and I was struck.

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Speaker 4: I was recently in Lithuania and I got a briefing

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Speaker 4: by the NATO Forward deployed commanders there and they told

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Speaker 4: me an astounding figure. They said that as of right now,

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Speaker 4: if there was another sort of an expansion of the

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Speaker 4: conflict beyond Ukraine to NATO's eastern flank, it would take

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Speaker 4: the Alliance in extremists forty five days to bring battlefield

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Speaker 4: kit from the West of Europe to the east of Europe. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: this is an unacceptable position where rounding on the fourth

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Speaker 4: anniversary of the war, we're about to enter the Ukraine

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Speaker 4: War's fifty year and the fact that this is still

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Speaker 4: the state of play and Europe is now mobilizing to

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Speaker 4: do better, but it's still going to take a year

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Speaker 4: or two to widen tunnels, to harden roads, to sort

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Speaker 4: of to build infrastructure, and it's going to cost a

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Speaker 4: lot of money. The fact that we're still in this

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Speaker 4: state of disarray right now speaks volumes about the lack

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Speaker 4: of seriousness that at least some countries still have towards

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Speaker 4: this broader conflict, and frankly, it's emboldening. If you're Vladimir

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Speaker 4: Putin and you look at European mobilization, you may think that,

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Speaker 4: despite all of your current difficulties in Ukraine, you may

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Speaker 4: think that there isn't really enough muscle or enough even

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Speaker 4: more importantly, enough political will to stand against you.

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Speaker 1: I think there's a very real danger that there's somebody

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Speaker 1: joints the other day that you look at their main

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Speaker 1: battle tank production far more goes against Finland and Poland

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00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: than against Ukraine. He has not drawn down his capabilities

438
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: against the West, that he's been using other aspects of

439
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: the Soviet military or in the Russian military to go

440
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: against Ukraine, and has not mobilized all the stuff he

441
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 1: could do if he was willing to back off from

442
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: threatening Finland and the Balkan states in Poland, I don't

443
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: know how accurate that is well.

444
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 3: Part of the reason there are not so many tanks

445
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,360
Speaker 3: in the front with Ukraine is Ukrainians have been knocking

446
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 3: them out with drones. There hasn't been a successful tank

447
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 3: attack regardless of numbers, and at the beginning there were

448
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 3: a lot of numbers against Ukraine. Ukrainian drones are knocking

449
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 3: them out, So I think that's the big lesson there.

450
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 3: Having said that, you have still in Russian circles some

451
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 3: very disturbing ideas. What if the Russian army went ten

452
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 3: kilometers into any or several of the Baltic states, We're

453
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 3: not capable of stopping that advance, and do we go

454
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 3: to war over that? And if we don't protect the

455
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 3: territorial integrity of the Baltic states, what happens to Natro

456
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 3: and how does it escalate? There are other scenarios where

457
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 3: limited use is limited Russian military activity is used against

458
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 3: NATAL partners with expectation that NATO's not ready for war.

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00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 4: Just to add one thing there, because I think that's

460
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 4: absolutely right. NATO is not ready for war, and NATO's

461
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 4: especially not ready for the new type of war that

462
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 4: the Russians are waging because NATO was built around the

463
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 4: idea of conventional war fighting and collective defense. NATO has

464
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 4: not yet developed a serious doctrine that works across domains

465
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 4: to deal with the type of hybrid warfare and graizone

466
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 4: warfare that the Russians are employing, because this is Russian

467
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 4: aggression below the threshold of escalation. These are sabotage operations,

468
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 4: these are Internet shutdowns, these are the targeting of electrical infrastructure,

469
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 4: things that NATO, at least conventionally has not been postured

470
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 4: to with cyber attacks, disinformation. And so NATO really needs

471
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 4: to develop a new doctrine because it has a new mission.

472
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 4: It has a new mission to create alliance solidarity and

473
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 4: reassure its members there's not this one trigger that's really

474
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 4: going to kick off a land war in Europe. That's

475
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 4: not how the Russians are playing these days, and so

476
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,239
Speaker 4: NATO has to figure out what the new groove is.

477
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: I mean, we sort of have a permanent Cold war

478
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: underway that involves a lot of things we're not used to.

479
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 1: You mentioned cyber attacks and shutdowns. I was very struck

480
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,959
Speaker 1: in the last couple of days the Iranian Internet system

481
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: came down, not because of outside interference, but because the

482
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 1: dictatorship wanted to stop people from coordinating their demonstrations. How

483
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 1: serious is the current level of demonstration in Iran and

484
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: what should we do. Is it practical for us to

485
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: try to help the people of Iran take their country

486
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: back and would the value be worth the risks that

487
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 1: might be involved.

488
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 4: I think so, and I think there needs to be

489
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 4: a little bit of sort of unpacking of this because

490
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 4: back in the summer of two thousand and nine, when

491
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 4: Iranian President Mahamudahmadri di Nijad fraudulently won a second term

492
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 4: in office, right fraudulently, because there were precincts that reported

493
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 4: over one hundred percent turnout. So the Iranian people mobilized

494
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 4: and there were millions of Iranians that were out in

495
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 4: the street, and they used the internet very extensively in

496
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 4: order to coordinate. The regime at that time was caught

497
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 4: flat footed. But in the weeks and months that followed,

498
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 4: they went online and throttled the green movement online, and

499
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 4: then the regime stayed online. They built this vast infrastructure

500
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 4: of control by the way through partnership with Chinese companies

501
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 4: like Zpe, for example, that has given the regime a

502
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 4: real ability to turn the Internet on and off, to

503
00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 4: do extensive surveillance of Internet activities, to curate the online

504
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 4: reality for its citizenry. That's coming into effect now. By

505
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 4: the way, this isn't the first time in the last

506
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 4: couple of years we've seen the Iranians shut down the

507
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 4: Internet themselves in response to the woman life freedom movement

508
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 4: that broke out in twenty twenty two. They're doing it

509
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 4: again now because the goal here is, as we're recording this,

510
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 4: there are protests in the streets in places like Tabreez

511
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 4: and Isfahan, but the regime's goal is to make sure

512
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 4: that these protests don't link up, that these protesters in

513
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 4: one place don't coordinate with others, and that requires shutting

514
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 4: down the way that they're communicating. That's sort of where

515
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 4: the focus is in terms of what we can do

516
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 4: about it. Frankly, I think there are a couple things immediately.

517
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 4: The first is to incentivize Elon Musk and Starlink to

518
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 4: really play a larger role, because to his great credit,

519
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 4: he's already begun talking about this, but in the context

520
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 4: of Ukraine, also in the context of the Gospel War,

521
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 4: we've seen how Starlink has the ability to bring connectivity

522
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 4: to denied environments, and so using Starlink not just as

523
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 4: a commercial tool, but as a geopolitical tool for American

524
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 4: objectives is I think very logical. It has a lot

525
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 4: of potential, and so my hope is that the administration

526
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 4: leans into that. And the second thing is that I

527
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 4: think the administration needs to think about how we the

528
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 4: United States communicates with the rating people ourselves, because as

529
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 4: part of the administration's focus on dismantling inefficient and bloated agencies,

530
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 4: there's also been a lot of change that's happened to

531
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 4: the US Agency for Global Media, which is the main

532
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 4: agency that oversees Voice of America and grantee agencies like

533
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,719
Speaker 4: Radio Free Europe. The unfortunate side effect of that is

534
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 4: that our voice has really gotten constricted, has grown smaller.

535
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 2: In places, including in Iran.

536
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 4: Right now, Voice of America Persian does one hour of

537
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 4: television broadcasting and six hours of digital broadcasting to Iran,

538
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 4: and it's not clear that they're in a position to

539
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 4: really scale up. And then there's all sorts of things

540
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 4: that the administration can do to articulate a more fulsome

541
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 4: support for the Ranium protesters and for it, they will

542
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 4: for political gain, but it also requires us to really

543
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 4: reinvigorate the way we talk to them, because they're listening,

544
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 4: but we're not really talking.

545
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to say, I think this conversation is a

546
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 1: good example of why your book matters, The New Imperialist,

547
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 1: and also why your new publication is going to matter,

548
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 1: because you are I think, going to bring some key,

549
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 1: big ideas into play in a way which we really

550
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: need in this very dramatically different world. Herman and Alan,

551
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: I want to thank you for joining me. I'm a

552
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 1: very big fan of the American Foreign Policy Council. You

553
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 1: do amazing work. Your network of context is extraordinary, and

554
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 1: your new book, The New Imperialists is available now in

555
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,879
Speaker 1: Amazon and in bookstairs everywhere, so our listeners by they

556
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 1: can also follow the work you're doing American Foreign Policy

557
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: Council by visiting AFPC dot org. So let me thank

558
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 1: both of you again for joining me.

559
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 3: Pleasure to be with you.

560
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having us.

561
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,760
Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest Hermann Pershner and Elan Berman.

562
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 1: Newsworld is produced by Gingish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our

563
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: executive producer is Guernsey Slim Our researcher is Rachel Peterson.

564
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley.

565
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 1: Special thanks to the team of Ginglish three sixty. If

566
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: you've been enjoying news World, I hope you'll get Apple

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Speaker 1: us a review so others can learn what it's all about.

569
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Speaker 1: Join me on substack at gingrich three sixty dot net.

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Speaker 1: I'm new Gingrich. This is Newsworld