1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg business Week inside from the reporters and 2 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:09,400 Speaker 1: editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 3 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 4 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio. 5 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: All Right, the heat is definitely, but what's really interesting 6 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 1: is you look at the bank trade is You've got 7 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: some stocks doing well, some regionals, some not same with 8 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: the big banks, although it feels like most of the 9 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,880 Speaker 1: big banks holding up. So lots of news coming out. 10 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: You've got UBS's plans to take over Credit Suite with 11 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 1: an assist we know about that. We've got New York 12 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: Community Bank Corps surging by record, leading that broader rally 13 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: and regional bank stocks after the letter was upgraded by 14 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: at least two Alice following its agreement to take over 15 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: Signature Banks, deposits in some of its loans, metime First 16 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: Republic Bank still having a tough time extending its route 17 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: to an all time intraday load. So let's get to it. 18 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 1: Carol Master here with Jess Metton, and let's get to 19 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: our roundtable. Back with us is Alison Williams, Senior Global 20 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: Banks analyst on the phone, Herman Chan, senior analyst for 21 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:16,759 Speaker 1: US regional Banks up both part of our Bloomberg Intelligence team. 22 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: Herman here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. I want 23 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: to start with you, Herman, only because we did have 24 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,759 Speaker 1: some headlines a short time ago, first Citizens saying it's 25 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: continuing its pursuit of Silicon Valley Bank. Remember about s 26 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: Phoebe that's still out there. Tell us about this as 27 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:34,559 Speaker 1: significance of this and the importance of this, and maybe 28 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: starting to calm things down. Yeah, I think what we're 29 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 1: seeing is that we live in a capitalist society and 30 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: banks will fail. That's natural, Yes, exactly. Let's banks take 31 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: risks and inherently sometimes those risks will up end the 32 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: bank and they fail. So what we're seeing is natural 33 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: where other stronger, you know, supposedly stronger banks will come 34 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: in and take over the institution, which I think is 35 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: a vote of confidence that the system still works. And 36 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: if there's a bank out there that feels comfortable enough 37 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 1: to do it, exactly, and the regulators feel comfortable with 38 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 1: that bank to take over. So what we're seeing with 39 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: SVB and for Citizens is it seems like for citizens 40 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: really wants to expand. They've been in expansion mode for 41 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: a bit now. They bought CIA not too long ago, 42 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: a specially lender here based in New York and New Jersey, 43 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: so they have wider ambitions and I think SBB fulfills 44 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: those potential ambitions. But we'll see if the regulators let 45 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,239 Speaker 1: them close that transaction. Alison, I want to bring you 46 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 1: in the conversation because when we're talking about New York 47 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: Bank ORPS and then Signature Bank, is this a guide 48 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:48,359 Speaker 1: for how more banking deals can be reached? I mean, 49 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 1: I think to Hermann's point, it could be a great 50 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: opportunity for both banks, for those that have gotten themselves 51 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: in trouble with mismanagement being taken over by a stronger, 52 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: healthier bank that perhaps has a little bit more pro 53 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:09,119 Speaker 1: west in terms of managing those risks. Um, it's good 54 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: for good for both of those banks and good for 55 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: the system. Alison, how do you see like Jiffian Morgan 56 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 1: holding up certainly eight tens of a percent higher in 57 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 1: today's trade and bringing up being of America's down a 58 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: little bit? Goldman sacks what's going on? Up one point 59 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 1: six percent? And let me just pull up City City 60 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 1: just down about six tens of a percent. How are 61 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 1: you looking at it from the big bank perspective as 62 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: we are focusing so much on the regionals, So I think, um, 63 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: certainly this time around, if you will, the the crux 64 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: of the issue, which really relates to mismanagement of bond portfolios, 65 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: mismanagement of uh you know, sort of we have this 66 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: big blow up of deposits and the bond portfolios. This 67 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: has really been to um centered on the regional banks. 68 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: For the largest banks, they're actually benefiting from some of 69 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: the deposits. A couple of them are very unlikely to 70 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: be acquirers because once you're over ten percent of deposits, 71 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: you are not allowed to you know, the understanding is 72 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,359 Speaker 1: that during a crisis they will be allowed. We did 73 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: see a few deals happened last crisis where that tempercent 74 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: was breached, although others some of the launches around those, 75 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: But for the bigger banks, credit sweets was really I 76 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 1: think the one that people were watching. That's really when 77 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 1: you started to see the bigger banks selling off last 78 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: week was when you know, there started to be rumors 79 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 1: about credit sweezes outflows. People weren't concerned about counterparty risk, 80 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: But since that was such a longer developing story, unlike 81 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 1: Silicon Valley, which happened in the day or so, most 82 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 1: of the banks had managed down that risk successfully. Herman, 83 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you specifically, because this was a 84 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: striking number, looking at the seventeen billion dollars of credit sweezes, 85 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: risky bonds that are now basically worthless, what are the 86 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 1: wider implication for bond markets moving forward it because it 87 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: seems like a controversial deal if you're a shareholder versus 88 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: if you're a bondholder. Right, Yeah, the AT one issue 89 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: I think is unique to Europe. Historically, when you do 90 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: finance one oh one, if something happens with the company 91 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 1: that you own, the equity holders usually get wiped out. 92 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: In the bondholders get a certain percentage based on your 93 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: seniority a priority in your capital stack. So it seems 94 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 1: very unique. I know my colleague Arnold Cacuda had mentioned 95 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 1: that the Swiss regulators and the Swiss version of these 96 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 1: AT one bonds are a bit unique versus the rest 97 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: of Europe. So that's something I would point to. Hey, Herman, 98 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: first republic down forty five, So what's the likely scenario 99 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: and this is after what you know, credit rating lowered 100 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: again by S and P thirty billion dollars infusion. Last 101 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,039 Speaker 1: week we got some more clarity about how many times 102 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: it's been tapping right into funds. I mean, do we 103 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: know what the likely outcome is here? I was expecting 104 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: some sort of news from from First Republic or the 105 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: regulators over the weekend that didn't happen. From what I've read, 106 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: it seems like, um, you know, management is a very 107 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:20,239 Speaker 1: proud sort right. The CEO is the founder of the company, 108 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: has been through multiple cycles nurtured this company to become 109 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: one of the biggest US banks in the unit banks, right. 110 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: So is so is that the problem that you've got 111 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: leaders that are proud? I think so, because the issue 112 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: is the hope was that this thirty billion dollars deposit 113 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: injection would calm the markets. Obviously that hasn't happened, and 114 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 1: your management, I feel like, is now put into a 115 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: corner and they really have to make a decision on 116 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,159 Speaker 1: what's really best for their customer and the bank, both 117 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: of you. I want to ask you. You know, there's 118 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: a great quote this morning about bank failures. I think 119 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,359 Speaker 1: it was on surveillance and it was liking somebody, I 120 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 1: guess said linking them to cockroaches and basically say, when 121 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:05,919 Speaker 1: you see one, even if you don't see another, you 122 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 1: know that there's hundreds behind the walls. And I guess 123 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: our mission all of us right now is to figure 124 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: out if that's the case when it comes to more 125 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 1: bank failures. So, Alison, how are you thinking about your 126 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: sector or you know, the counterparty, you know, exposures if 127 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: you will, to figure out exposure, what could go wrong next? 128 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: In other words, finding that next cockroach. Well, I think 129 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: what's worrisome at this point is just that the market 130 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: sentiment can drive reality, and so I think that that's 131 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: the concern. So if we look at Credit Suite, you know, 132 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 1: the regulators were in there. The capital is fine, the 133 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: liquidity was fine, but if the rest of the market worries, 134 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: it creates an issue. And the Swiss regulators pointed to 135 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: the fact that they were that it was really the 136 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: outflows they were seeing that caused them to step in. 137 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: There were reports of them receiving about ten million of 138 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: outflows that jets, So obviously that's signific again, and so 139 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: I think that you know, to your point, investors are 140 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: looking for sort of the next bank at risk each 141 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: time something happens. And I think that it's tricky for 142 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: regulators because they do you to come out and do 143 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 1: something that's enough to make people's steady sentiment, but not 144 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 1: too much that makes people nervous that there's more to 145 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: be worried about. So sentiment, sentiment is a tricky thing. 146 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: Same question to you, Herman, like, how do you think 147 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: about what could go wrong next? And I feel like, 148 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: you know, it isn't quite whackamole right when it comes 149 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 1: to the regional banks. Maybe it's a slow moving game 150 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:44,559 Speaker 1: of whackamle. I think initially it was whackamle with SBB 151 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: in signature. Now it's more of a okay, we know 152 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: first Republic is the main issue now that the market 153 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 1: is focused on is there is there anything else? Is there? 154 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: Investor Alliance are not worried about or anything. Western Alliance 155 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 1: is a name that continues to come up up quest 156 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: pack West is a name that continues to come up, 157 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: but to banks that operate in California and the West Coast. 158 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 1: I know Western lines a bit better. They offered a 159 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 1: pretty decent update in terms of their balance sheet and 160 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: their cast position on Friday. So I think that placated 161 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: some folks. So really, what's the next you to drop? 162 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,319 Speaker 1: I think what Alison Suggs and market sentimen creates reality. 163 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,719 Speaker 1: And you'll look at a bank's typical balance sheet. You 164 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: don't mark to market there healthy matual securities. You don't 165 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: mark to market their loans. That's a feature of bank 166 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 1: accounting it. But that's the market is saying that's a bug. 167 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: And so we're in this weird position where we have 168 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: to question, you know, what was inherent acceptance of how 169 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: banks managed our balance sheet and that that's really upended 170 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: with what's what's happened with SBB and First Republican. We've 171 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: definitely had regulators coming out and just throwing it feels 172 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: like a lot of money thoughtfully into the system, Allison, 173 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: just about twenty five seconds, the big banks just get 174 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: even bigger and bolder and more powerful they do. I mean, 175 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: that does seem to be what's happening. And I think 176 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 1: again what everyone's waiting to see is if there will 177 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 1: be some kind of announcement on deposit insurance, which will 178 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: really make things interesting, especially because the big banks pay 179 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: the most for that. But regulators are going to want to, 180 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: you know, protect the smaller banks and then globally, what 181 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: does that mean for global deposits? If the US effectively 182 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: ensures higher amounts, does that attract even more to those 183 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,439 Speaker 1: big institutions? And if your boss has told you guys, 184 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: but you guys get this big Caribbean vacation after all 185 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: of this is over because you're working in so I 186 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 1: areed sources. According to Alson Williams, thank you so much 187 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Intelligence and Herman Chan of our Bloomberg Intelligence team. 188 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 1: Following the big banks and the regionals. You're listening and 189 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 1: watching Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. 190 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 1: Catch us Live week do afternoons from three to six 191 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeart Radio app, 192 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 193 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: Hell yeah, we're gonna talk a little bit about Teddy Bears. Um, 194 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: let's sten back for a moment. I'm all our focus 195 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 1: on banking, and rightfully so, but let's get a feel 196 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: of how this change and sentiment over the past couple 197 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: of weeks, or at least this new narrative, if you will, 198 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 1: might be impacting consumers and retail with us right now 199 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 1: is Sharon Price John. She's president CEO of the publicly 200 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 1: held small cap Build a Bear Workshop back with us 201 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 1: via zoom in New York City. Sharon, nice to have 202 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 1: you here with justin myself. Um, last and we talked, 203 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 1: it was more than a year ago, December twenty twenty one. 204 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 1: What's changed for you in your business and what's on 205 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 1: your per view if you will, in the last twelve 206 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: to fifteen months. What's changed? Yeah, well, we've continued to 207 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,959 Speaker 1: post record results. I mean, we just announced our year 208 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 1: in on March ninth, and we're happy to be able 209 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: to share double digit improvement in both the top line 210 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: and the pretax profit line, with our top line up 211 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: about fourteen percent and our bottom line up about twenty 212 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 1: two percent, and that we had seen at that point 213 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 1: continued momentum in the business at first quarter a year 214 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:38,079 Speaker 1: to date. And but that's so that's not what's changed. 215 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:42,240 Speaker 1: That's what's remained the same, and that last year, twenty 216 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 1: twenty one was a record profitability year for us, and 217 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 1: we eclipse that in twenty twenty two with another record 218 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 1: profitability year. What's changed is that we've evolved so much 219 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 1: as a company and that we have a much broader 220 00:12:55,040 --> 00:13:00,439 Speaker 1: addressable market. We appeal to consumers for different reasons for opping, 221 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:04,839 Speaker 1: not just which would be a typical type of event 222 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 1: for us, which would be a birthday for a child. 223 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 1: But now from the adult consumer what's called adulting. A 224 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: big trend with gifting and adult to adult gifts. A 225 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: lot going on with build a Bear, a lot of collectibles. 226 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: We have a lot of fun licenses, like most recently 227 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: announced ted Lasso Bear, but things like a Deadpool Bear 228 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 1: or Matrix Bears, Friends Bears. How well did those kind 229 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: of bears do really fun? Like? How well? I mean 230 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:37,079 Speaker 1: is it? Are they profit drivers? Or give me an idea. Well, 231 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: I'm as a publicly traded company, clearly, you know one 232 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: of our objectives is that we choose to do things 233 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: that hopefully are profit drivers. But the kid that the 234 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: business now has, as I noted, when I speak about 235 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,079 Speaker 1: it having a broader addressable market, I don't mean that 236 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 1: that's not meaningful for us. About forty percent of our 237 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 1: sales are now to teens and adults, and yes, those 238 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: licenses often had Clearly they're going to have a royalty 239 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 1: associated with them, if that's the emphatus for the question, 240 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: But they also generate generally a little higher price point 241 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 1: as well, because that consumer has more latitude and the 242 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:15,959 Speaker 1: way they think about it. At the same time, we 243 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 1: balanced the portfolio with a very accessible prices, with very 244 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: accessible prices for kids, particularly with our Birthday treat Bear, 245 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: where you can come in at the month of your 246 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 1: birthday and pay your age to get the Birthday Treat Bear. 247 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: So if you're turning two years old, you can get 248 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 1: an entire Build the Bear special one thermoney stopping experience 249 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 1: for two bucks. That's pretty cool. Your products have definitely 250 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: evolved with the tastes of children today, So when you 251 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 1: think of Super Mario Brothers or Paul Patrol, Harry Potter 252 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: and I know, a lot of the accessories can definitely 253 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: add up quick. So with the straws earning out look ahead, 254 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: what do you think this really tells us about the 255 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 1: direction of the economy if consumers are still willing to 256 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 1: spend on discretionary items at specialty retailers like yours. Well, 257 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: first of all, we don't think of ourselves is just 258 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 1: a specialty retailer. We think of ourselves as an experiential brand, 259 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 1: an opportunity for families to come together to share memories. 260 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: We're multigenerational, like twenty five years old, and yes we 261 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: do evolve our licenses with the times, as you mentioned, 262 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: but things that are evergreen, like a Harry Potter that 263 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: appeals to a broad broad range of consumers. To your question, though, 264 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 1: our accessories business is, you know, to be able to 265 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: address your bear and make it very much your own. 266 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 1: That's just a part of our creative process. That's how 267 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 1: kids and adults feel empowered by making it incredibly unique. 268 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: And you can even put the sound in the bear, 269 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 1: so it's a one of a kind in many cases, 270 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: and that's you know, And when you think about that 271 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 1: as the experience and the takeaway and the importance that 272 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: Teddy Bears play in the lives of children, particularly as 273 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 1: comfort animals, a lot of psychological background on the need 274 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: for that type of special, kind of special relationship with 275 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: a stuffed animal. Um. I don't know if you can 276 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 1: consider us completely discretionary. I gotta say for my daughter 277 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: it was a discretionary which was a little kid. Hey 278 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 1: I say that. I say that from a vantage point 279 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 1: of a mom of three. So you know, some of 280 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: it could be tongue in cheek, you know, as a CEO, 281 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 1: but there's some reality to that. I remember going on 282 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: a trip and we forgot we forgot our stuffy and 283 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: man we had to get a new one in front 284 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: of replacement one really quickly. Hey, m One thing I 285 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: want to ask you, Sharon is um and I want 286 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: to step back just to some of the bigger, broader 287 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: macro that's going on. As a CEO of a company, 288 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: you have to think about recession, consumer retail in general. 289 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: But the recent market volatility and concerns about our banking system. 290 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: How has that impacted you at all? Yeah, of course 291 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: that's very concerning. I mean, we want to see a 292 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: strong economy, We want to see people in you know, 293 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: good financial situations. I can also say, though, on looking 294 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: back on the last few years, there's certainly been a 295 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 1: lot of volatility. I think some of the most MULTIPLEUS 296 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 1: economic times in our modern history, clearly inclusive of the 297 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: COVID outbreak and even prior to that in retail, the 298 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: retail apocalypse. So constant feels like a lot of constant 299 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: changes and uncertainty. And I think that you know, families 300 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,239 Speaker 1: and businesses have to be prepared for that. You know, 301 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,680 Speaker 1: we're in a strong financial situation. We have very prudent 302 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: financial control. We finished this year with forty million dollars 303 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: in cash and return seventy million over the last two 304 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: years to our shareholders, announced a special dividend, and have 305 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: no borrowings on our credit facility. So with all of 306 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,360 Speaker 1: that in mind, and that we did mention that we 307 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 1: expect are in the guidance that we provided from a 308 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: range perspective, another five to seven percent on the top line, 309 00:17:55,359 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 1: another ten to fifteen percent profit expansion through twenty twenty three. 310 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:05,159 Speaker 1: But the reason that we feel and shared that and 311 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: feel like that there's some confidence. Clearly that's excluding anything 312 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:14,199 Speaker 1: entirely appeaving, but we've been able to manage as a 313 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 1: team and as a company that that brand relationship that 314 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: we have with guests and be able to pull the 315 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 1: proper levers when needed to manage through some of these 316 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: uncertain economic times. Clearly you've probably heard as well, I've 317 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 1: we already been in a recession or we undersid a recession. 318 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: Now are we going into a recession? Right? It's um, 319 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 1: you know, I don't know that we you know, there's 320 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,400 Speaker 1: a lot of different I would say earmarks that are 321 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 1: pointing in different directions, and I think that the key 322 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 1: is to be diversified and flexible, and that's what we've 323 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 1: been attempting to do by pivoting the company to have 324 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: revenue streams in traditional retail as well as e com entertainment, 325 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 1: looking for different ways to meet the needs of guests 326 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: for different reasons. Hang on very second, just quickly, did 327 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 1: you shift around your banking at all because of the 328 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: nervousness within the banking system. We have a very strong 329 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 1: relationship with our banking partners. Okay, that's what I wanted 330 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: to know. You talk about expanding your revenue stream and 331 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: these strategies. You've got the metaverse that you guys are 332 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 1: certainly embracing. You're also thinking about content and linking up 333 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:31,119 Speaker 1: with Rheese Witherspoon and her media company. Just got about 334 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: forty five fifty seconds. Just talk to us a little 335 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: bit about these strategies if you could. Yeah, in a 336 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 1: brand that has sold two hundred and twenty five million 337 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,640 Speaker 1: Furrey Friends over the last twenty five years, and when 338 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 1: you understand that each one of those very friends represents 339 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 1: a story, we're really a storytelling company. So when you 340 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 1: think about the extension and expansion of our brand and 341 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: our business into the entertainment arm and the content driven arm, 342 00:19:56,000 --> 00:20:01,679 Speaker 1: it's not really that much of a stretch from that perspective. Yes, Hello, Sunshines, 343 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 1: Freese Witherspoon's company. We did announce a feature film deal. 344 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 1: We also have Mary Mission our Christmas holiday and holiday. 345 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: This is a particular property that we launched years ago 346 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 1: starring Glisten. We'll be out this holiday as well in 347 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 1: an animated feature, and we're we'll be in launching the 348 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,159 Speaker 1: Build Abair feature documentary with award winning documentary and Taylor 349 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 1: more than later this year. So we have a lot 350 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: of different ways to connect again with a broad base 351 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 1: of consumers yep, and to monetize the value and enormous 352 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 1: quity of the build Away Ram. Sharon's so good to 353 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 1: check in with you. Sharon Price, John CEO of Build 354 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: a Bear Workshop, joining us right here on Bloomberg Business Week. 355 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Catch us 356 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 357 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app and YouTube. You can also listen 358 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 359 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 1: jo say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. All right, folks, 360 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:09,360 Speaker 1: we've seen this movie before. Big tech company cutting jobs again. 361 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 1: Last week it was Meta. This week it's Amazon laying 362 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 1: off an additional nine thousand employees, adding to cuts that 363 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: were already the largest round of firings in the company's history. 364 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: Stuck down on the news, down about one and a 365 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: quarter percent in today's sessions, still up roughly sixteen percent 366 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 1: year to date. So let's get to it with the 367 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:29,640 Speaker 1: latest down the company. Bloomberg's Intelligence senior technology analyst, annoag 368 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 1: Granta joins us via zoom from Chicago. Annorag, good to 369 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 1: have you here with Jess Metten and myself. So I'm 370 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 1: trying to think, first of all, let's get through the news. 371 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 1: Why did they have to cut another round of jobs. 372 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 1: Futt of the update that they gave that they were 373 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: going through an operational planning and trying to figure out 374 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: how much excess capacity do they have? And they did, 375 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 1: you know, the first round a couple of months ago, 376 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: and then the other review wasn't completed. One it was completed, 377 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: they found out they could you know, eliminate another nine 378 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,719 Speaker 1: thousand jobs. That's really the rationale that was given by 379 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:03,880 Speaker 1: the company. So is this smart management in your view, 380 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: saying Okay, we still have too many workers, we had 381 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 1: to cut back, rather than doing a massive layoff and 382 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 1: maybe figuring out they cut too much. One could argue 383 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: that they just took their time in making sure that 384 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,120 Speaker 1: they don't overreact at the first goal. You know, our 385 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: read on this is we don't think the fundamentals of 386 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 1: the cloud business are recovering at this point, which is 387 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,719 Speaker 1: partially the reason why they had to go undergo another 388 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: random layoff. You know, they may have avoided it if 389 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 1: we saw a rebound and talk growth, I mean the 390 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,159 Speaker 1: cloud growth, I would say, I mean, that could be 391 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,199 Speaker 1: a reason, but we won't know that. You know, the 392 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: end of April, when they announced their results on a 393 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 1: rock we're specifically were jobs cut in this latest round 394 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: versus compared to what we saw earlier this year. Yeah. 395 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,880 Speaker 1: So they highlighted four divisions, AWS being one of them, 396 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: at advertising being one of them, Twitch, and PXT, which 397 00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: is their human employee experience segment. Now, from our revenue 398 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 1: side of it, AW is just far bigger than anything 399 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,719 Speaker 1: else we think the majority of the cuts could be 400 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,120 Speaker 1: in that area. They didn't break up by a segment, 401 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: but you know, our thesis is that that's where we 402 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 1: saw a bulk of the cuts. Is that troubling to 403 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,639 Speaker 1: you because we talk about AWS how important that is 404 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:21,440 Speaker 1: to Amazon certainly tap in bottom line and growth. Yeah, 405 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 1: but if you were to say that over the last 406 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 1: few years, the revenue is more than doubled and their 407 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,360 Speaker 1: employee cases, you know, base would have doubled as well 408 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 1: in order to keep up with that. You know, again, 409 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 1: you know if they let's say, for the sake of argument, 410 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: they have hundred thousand employees and they you know, let's 411 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 1: go let's say ten percent of that. I mean, it 412 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,919 Speaker 1: is logical if you see the rate of sales growths 413 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 1: go down. Our argument is if the you know, cloud 414 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: still has a long runway in the long run, when 415 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:49,920 Speaker 1: that growth comes back, they're going to go out a 416 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 1: lot of people back again. And if you look at 417 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 1: it Stark today it was down a little more than 418 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 1: one percent, but still a year to date up about 419 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,720 Speaker 1: sixteen percent. Do you think it's start price will potentially 420 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,719 Speaker 1: remain challenge in the near term due to slowing AWS 421 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 1: sales inflation or do you think it might be a 422 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 1: little bit counter to that. I mean, we've seen even 423 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 1: Meta had quite the rally since obviously it announced more 424 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 1: job cuts last week, but even since November, Metas stock 425 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,479 Speaker 1: had been up more than eighty percent. I'm wondering kind 426 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: of what this means for the trajectory for Amazon stock price. 427 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: One of the things you have to look really locate 428 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,679 Speaker 1: to its relative evaluation. I mean, the Meta is a 429 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 1: far more profitable company. It's trading at a much different 430 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,120 Speaker 1: marketple than what Amazon's trading at. You know, amazto Amazon 431 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 1: to you know, turn around from a stock point of view, 432 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: one of the things they have to really do is 433 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 1: to really look at the profitability of some of their segments. 434 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 1: And no, we have no idea when that's going to 435 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: turn around. Frankly, you know, it's interesting. I was looking 436 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: at what Jassy, the CEO of Amazon, said in a 437 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 1: memo that was published to Amazon's corporate blog. Here's the quote. 438 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,639 Speaker 1: Given the uncertain an economy in which we reside, in 439 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: the uncertainty that exists in the near future, we've chosen 440 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:08,560 Speaker 1: to be more streamlined in our costs and headcount. You know, 441 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,439 Speaker 1: when a CEO I always find it so important in 442 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 1: terms of what the CEOs have to say, certainly in 443 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,439 Speaker 1: an environment where we're you know, worried about banks and 444 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,639 Speaker 1: bank stress and just trying to figure out what happens 445 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: to the economy and recession no recession, landing, no landing. 446 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 1: We're waiting on that FED meeting this week. When a 447 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 1: CEO like any Jazzy says that and uses uncertain and 448 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: certainty twice in a sentence, how do you read it 449 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,400 Speaker 1: and then cross that against the fundamentals at the economy 450 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 1: and the balance sheet. Yeah, I would argue that over 451 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 1: the last five years, or it would take more than 452 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: three and a half to fourdeos, tech companies have hired 453 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 1: very aggressively thinking that this particular growth cycle will never stop, 454 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 1: and that's I think most of them are kind of 455 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 1: paying for, you know, certain abrupt spending in technology right now. 456 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 1: If you go back to the history of Amazon, really 457 00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: the ethos of the company, it has been a very 458 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 1: frugal company in terms of spending since the founding of 459 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 1: the company. I think and Andy has been around with 460 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 1: Jeff Basil since the beginning or near around the beginning, 461 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: so I think, you know, he's reminding people that we've 462 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,959 Speaker 1: got to be very cost conscious when we are not 463 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 1: looking at revenue growth that is in the same that 464 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,360 Speaker 1: it was in the last few years. We just set 465 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,439 Speaker 1: to mind out expenses. And frankly speaking, he's right. Nobody 466 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 1: knows what's going to happen to enterprise tax spending in 467 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 1: the second half of this year, whether we're going to 468 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,199 Speaker 1: see any recovery or you know, no recovery at all, 469 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 1: and whether this is going to be either a twenty 470 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,400 Speaker 1: twenty fourth story or a twenty five story. And we've 471 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 1: seen so many cost cutting efforts, whether we're talking about 472 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,360 Speaker 1: Amazon or met A, Microsoft, Salesforce, Intel, you can name 473 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 1: your big tech company this year, we've seen it or 474 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 1: in the past six months. I'm wondering how much further 475 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 1: do those efforts have to go to shore up investor 476 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 1: confidence about these cost cutting measures. And we are talking 477 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,399 Speaker 1: about big tech companies and growth stocks to one of 478 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: the arguments would be, if growth doesn't come back, you're 479 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,479 Speaker 1: going to see another round of day off from a 480 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,200 Speaker 1: lot of them. And there is you know, there is 481 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,080 Speaker 1: no one size bit all over here. If you look 482 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 1: at a company like Microsoft, in the last five years, 483 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 1: they've doubled their headcount from one hundred thousand to two 484 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty one thousand before they announced a five 485 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: percent layoff. That's a ten thousand person layoff. So if 486 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 1: you are, you know, going out and looking at a 487 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 1: timeframe of slightly longer than just one one and a 488 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,720 Speaker 1: half years that these companies have hired very aggressively, you 489 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: know this is bound to happen. Yeah, I do feel 490 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,679 Speaker 1: like you know, Anarag, and the conversations that we certainly 491 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 1: have had over the last year or so, it does 492 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 1: feel like many of the company, especially within the tech universe, 493 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 1: it's it's a bit of a reset post pandemic. Is 494 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 1: that fair to saying just got about twenty seconds left? Yeah? Absolutely, reset. 495 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,320 Speaker 1: This is really a reset because we thought this is 496 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,199 Speaker 1: now not going to stop. For the first time in 497 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 1: five to six years, we are seeing some slowdown and 498 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 1: you know, job cuts are just a part of reality 499 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 1: at this point. All right, Well, good perspective and just 500 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,159 Speaker 1: putting this in check. Anaag, thank you so much. Anag Grana. 501 00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 1: He's senior technology analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. I guess be 502 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: a zoom. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast 503 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 1: catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern 504 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 1: Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeart Radio app and 505 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 506 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:22,120 Speaker 1: I'm bloom a journal Now, bet you let me drive? 507 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no no no, who's gonna drive home? Honey? Please, 508 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 1: I'll do the riding drivel. I'm want to drive. It's 509 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 1: good question. This is the Drive to the Clothes coming well, 510 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 1: driver up shop down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody, 511 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 1: we are counting down to the close. Just about seventeen 512 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 1: minutes left in today's trading session. Carol Mass along with 513 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,400 Speaker 1: Jess Manton. So let's get to it. Let's get to 514 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 1: our Drive to the Clothes. Guest. Paul Biyaki is with us. 515 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: He's chief ETF strategist at SSNC Apps Advisors, a registered 516 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,800 Speaker 1: investment advisor. They've got some nineteen billion in assets, over 517 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,120 Speaker 1: nineteen billion in assets under management. They are based in Denver. 518 00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: Paul joining us though in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. 519 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 1: It's so nice to have you here in studio. First 520 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 1: of all, you come to New York. How does the 521 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: conversations differ from one you are back at headquarters in Denver. 522 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 1: I always love when people are coming from different parts 523 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 1: of the country. Well, I would say broadly, the conversations 524 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:29,320 Speaker 1: are similar. You know, Denver has people nervous, people are nervous. 525 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 1: I think the reality is Denver's grown. It's one of 526 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 1: these cities like Boise or Nashville that you hear a 527 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 1: lot about people moving from the coasts to some of 528 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 1: these cities. And so I think there's been a diversity 529 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 1: of the population that maybe didn't exist five, ten, fifteen 530 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 1: years ago, not just in terms of demographics, but in 531 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 1: terms of background and in terms of the places where 532 00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 1: people grew up. And so I think that feeds into it. 533 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 1: But you come to New York and there's just this 534 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,920 Speaker 1: energy here in this city that doesn't exist in other places. 535 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 1: And because you're having conversations with people who grew up 536 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,120 Speaker 1: here in many cases or who have spent years in 537 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 1: the business here, there's a seasoned nature to some of 538 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:11,920 Speaker 1: the people you talk to about some of these things. 539 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:13,880 Speaker 1: Been there, done that sort of thing. So, as you 540 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 1: come to New York and you're having meetings, are people 541 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 1: pretty calm about this environment or they suspect, well, we'll 542 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 1: see I mean, I flow in last night, so I've 543 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 1: got some meetings the rest of the week. We'll see, 544 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 1: but I think that's the tone when even internally we've 545 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 1: had some calls. We had one of our fixed income 546 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 1: managers going through their outlook. We had a commodities manager 547 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 1: going through an internal call this morning, and I think 548 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 1: the idea is, look, these are in some cases idiosyncratic dynamics, 549 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: but in other cases they're a symptom of what has 550 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 1: been a pretty dramatic change in capital markets dynamics that 551 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 1: we haven't seen for quite some time. And so I 552 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 1: think some people are just sort of in wait and 553 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 1: ce mode. And especially because you are a strategist for ETFs, 554 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: I was curious as for is what are the flows 555 00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 1: telling us. Do you have exposure were banks? And if so, 556 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,719 Speaker 1: what is it showing us so far as far as 557 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: like following the money at that point, Yeah, so we 558 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,720 Speaker 1: have the we're a distributor for the select sector spiders, 559 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,000 Speaker 1: which are the largest most liquid sector ETFs in the marketplace, 560 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 1: and last week we saw a lot of flows into XLF. 561 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,040 Speaker 1: Believe it or not. I think you think about what 562 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,520 Speaker 1: XLF is and it pulls from the largest financial companies 563 00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 1: in the United States in the SMP five hundred, and 564 00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 1: what we've heard anecdotally is people who had deposits at 565 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 1: smaller regional banks starting to move their money to some 566 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,520 Speaker 1: of these larger banks. We heard Congress talking about it, 567 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,240 Speaker 1: concerned about it and what the impact might be. Bigger 568 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 1: banks becoming bigger, and we saw some people perhaps moving 569 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 1: out of their regional banking exposure into these larger financial companies. 570 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,280 Speaker 1: Within XLF, what we do have some other products that 571 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: are more diversified that have some finance exposure but by 572 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 1: design don't have that regional banking exposure. So one that 573 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 1: we were talking about on the TV side earlier was OUSM, 574 00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: which is a small cap strategy focused on quality, income oriented, 575 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 1: low volatility stocks in the small and MidCap segment. And 576 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 1: if you look at the Russell two thousand, which is 577 00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:12,480 Speaker 1: the benchmark most people using a small cap category, about 578 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 1: nine percent of that portfolios in regional banks, and OUSM, 579 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 1: relative to that index is underweight financials but doesn't have 580 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 1: any regional banking exposure. It's got capital markets and insurance companies. 581 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 1: If you look at the Russell two thousand value, it's 582 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 1: got eighteen percent in regional banks. So it really comes 583 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,840 Speaker 1: down to investors waking up to the reality that in 584 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,320 Speaker 1: some cases they don't know they have exposure to some 585 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 1: of these companies. They don't know that they have exposure 586 00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 1: to some of these segments of the financial sector in 587 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:47,560 Speaker 1: portfolio categories that they didn't anticipate, and that's part of 588 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: the know what you own and why you own it well. 589 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,640 Speaker 1: And it's interesting going back to flows. As you said, 590 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 1: there was money coming into the XLF. Is it continuing 591 00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,320 Speaker 1: to come in The longer this goes on and the 592 00:32:56,360 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 1: more that we are the continuation that we are talking 593 00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 1: about what's going on in banking, does it still come in? Well, 594 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,120 Speaker 1: it's a challenge because XLF is one of those products 595 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 1: that used by such a wide range of investors. You've 596 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:14,280 Speaker 1: got hedge funds, to use, a pensions, endowments, retail investors, advisors, 597 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 1: and so it's hard to get a gauge day to day, 598 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 1: week to week on what's actually happening. But what we 599 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: saw last year was a lot of money coming into 600 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 1: XLF at the beginning of the year, and then middle 601 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,000 Speaker 1: of the year we started to see a lot of outflows. 602 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 1: And if you think about what happened last year. There 603 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 1: was this anticipation that interest rates were going to rise 604 00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 1: that should benefit an interest margins, and so therefore financials 605 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 1: would be an interesting trade. What we saw was that yes, 606 00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,560 Speaker 1: interest rates rose, but we didn't get a steepening of 607 00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 1: the yield curve. In fact, we got inversions in different 608 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,200 Speaker 1: parts of the yield curve, which is not positive for 609 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,000 Speaker 1: an interest margins. And then people started to move out 610 00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,840 Speaker 1: of financials last year. So it remains to be seen 611 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:57,200 Speaker 1: if we see flows from banking stocks into broad based 612 00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,680 Speaker 1: financial stocks. And I think more importantly, the net interest 613 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 1: margins story is interesting because that's ultimately what was the 614 00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,200 Speaker 1: undoing of Silicon Valley Bank is net interest margins went 615 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,480 Speaker 1: against them. They weren't beneficial when interest rates are rising. 616 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,800 Speaker 1: So but it was interesting because we were often talking 617 00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:15,520 Speaker 1: about here that the assumption that as rates go up, 618 00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,280 Speaker 1: this is good for the big banks, but they weren't 619 00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,440 Speaker 1: necessarily rallying, and it was a little bit, not a 620 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 1: little bit, that was a lot of a disconnect. It 621 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 1: didn't quite make sense. Sure. So the core business model 622 00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,920 Speaker 1: of a bank is you borrow short, you land long. 623 00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,959 Speaker 1: But if you've already lent a lot of money long 624 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,719 Speaker 1: by buying bonds with really low interest rates, and then 625 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 1: you're borrowing at higher rates than what you've lent. That's 626 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 1: not good. And the benefit of being a large diversified 627 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 1: financial institution is you have capital markets businesses, you have 628 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:51,160 Speaker 1: other businesses to augment that traditional lending business, and in 629 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:55,319 Speaker 1: theory you have sophisticated risk management in the form of 630 00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 1: swaps and other various mechanisms. Right, And you brought up 631 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,560 Speaker 1: the ou M for small caps, and that I thought 632 00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 1: was interesting because we keep talking about how how small 633 00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,040 Speaker 1: caps perform, what that could mean for large caps? What 634 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:09,960 Speaker 1: is it telling us when you're looking at the flows 635 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,319 Speaker 1: specifically for small cap and just how about twenty five 636 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,319 Speaker 1: thirty seconds? Okay? So I think the idea is is 637 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,600 Speaker 1: that small caps in theory are less exposed to international markets. 638 00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:21,040 Speaker 1: So with the dollar having been strong, there was a 639 00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:25,360 Speaker 1: small cap trade on. Historically, small caps can be very risky. 640 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,800 Speaker 1: Thirty percent of the russell too just doesn't make money. 641 00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 1: So if interest rates are higher, then investors need to 642 00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:34,120 Speaker 1: maybe take that passive exposure to small caps and start 643 00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,440 Speaker 1: to reevaluate and filter that universe down from the quality 644 00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,239 Speaker 1: years well focus get some time right here and hope 645 00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,239 Speaker 1: you'll come back. Called Bayaki, He's Chief ETF Strategist at 646 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:47,080 Speaker 1: SSNC ALPS Advisors, Joining us here in our interactive broker studio. 647 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:52,360 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast of a Little Apple, Spotify, 648 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live week 649 00:35:56,239 --> 00:36:00,000 Speaker 1: afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 650 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,200 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. 651 00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,200 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 652 00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal