WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: March 28, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.960 --> 0:00:05.760 Live from the Bloomberg and Director Burger Studios. This is 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:10.400 Bloomberg Daybreak for Monday, March two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:13.680 another round of peace talks gets under way between Ukraine 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.160 and Russia. The White House tries to walk back President 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:19.720 Biden's comments on Vladimir Putin, and in markets, the steepest 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:22.480 global bond route of the modern era shows no signs 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:26.560 of slowing. The January sixth Panel files contempt cases against 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:30.160 two former Trump allies. Plus it made Academy Awards history, 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:32.760 but not in a good way. I'm Michael bar More 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:36.560 straight Ahead, I'm John Stashdown Swards Kyrie. Everying first home game, 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:38.760 the Nets lost wins with the Knicks and Rangers, and 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:40.839 the n C Double eight tournament is down to the 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:46.640 final four. That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg, Gay Break, 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:51.720 on Bloomberg eleven, Treeo, New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:56.520 Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine six, San Francisco, 0:00:56.840 --> 0:00:59.960 Sirius x M one nine Team, and around the world 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:03.880 on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via The Bloomberg Business. 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:10.560 Good Morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow and 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:13.400 Nasdaq futures are lower to start the week. We are 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:15.160 coming up to five oh one on Wall Street and 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:17.639 we check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.119 day on Bloomberg. Right now, NASDACK features are lower, down 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:24.520 twenty eight points. SNP futures are a little change, and 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:26.920 DAL futures are up to thirty eight. The decks in 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:29.400 Germany is at one point six perst cent. The ten 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:32.080 year treasury down eight thirty seconds yea two point five 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:34.920 zero percent, and they yield on the two year two 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:38.479 point three eight percent. NIMEX screwed oil is down three 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:41.080 point eight per cent on four dollars thirty three cents 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:44.479 at a hundred nine dollars fifty seven cents a barrel. Nathan, 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:46.319 all right, Karen, we'll have more on the markets in 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:49.400 a minute. But first, peace talks between Ukraine and Russia 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:52.560 resumed this week in Turkey. The meetings come as several 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:55.520 Ukrainian cities continue to take heavy fire. We get more 0:01:55.560 --> 0:01:58.600 from Bloomberg Managing editor Dan ten Kate. So let's do 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:01.880 is out again speaking about what Ukraine would be willing 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:05.200 to discuss in these talks. One you know, ready to 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:09.520 declare neutrality, abandoned the push to join NATO, vow not 0:02:09.600 --> 0:02:12.600 to develop nuclear weapons. And you know, the key one 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:14.960 is basically saying that they're willing to talk about that 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:18.960 Dombus region where Russia really had troops already before the 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:21.760 war started. And this is sort of an acknowledgement from 0:02:21.760 --> 0:02:24.480 the Ukrainians that, okay, you know, maybe we could move 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:27.800 the troops back to the positions where they were pre war. 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:32.000 Bloomberg's Dantancate reports that talks resume while heavy explosions were 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:35.760 heard in several Ukrainian cities overnight. Local authorities expect civilians 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:39.239 to keep plaeing the devastated city of Maropol. And those 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:42.880 peace talks, however, Nathan, are being overshadowed by comments made 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:46.120 by President Biden. Some off the cover marks about Russian 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:49.519 President Vladimir Putin are garnering serious attention. And here's what 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:54.080 the President said Saturday. For God's sake, this man cannot 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:57.880 remain Almost immediately, the White House trying to walk back 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:00.239 those words over the weekend, and we get more raba, 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:04.320 Bloomberg said Baxter. The President says he was not advocating 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:07.640 regime change in Russia and that he was just answering 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:10.839 a reporter's question earlier in the day. Secretary of State 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:13.960 Anthony Blancott also walked back the original statement. We do 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:17.320 not have a strategy of regime change in Russia or 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:20.280 anywhere else for that matter. Now, the US Ambassador to NATO, 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:23.840 Julianne Smith, says the President had spent all day with refugees, 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:28.000 listening to heartbreaking stories. In the moment, I think that 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:31.480 was a principled human reaction to the stories that he 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:35.200 had heard that day. But French President Amanya mccron is 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:39.000 warning against words or actions that could inflame the region. 0:03:39.600 --> 0:03:42.720 In San Francisco. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, ed, 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:45.600 thank you. Let's turning to President Biden's agenda back home now. 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:49.200 The White House releases its budget proposal today. It's expected 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:53.080 to detail a minimum tax rates for households worth more 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:56.240 than one million dollars. Amy Morris has the details from 0:03:56.240 --> 0:03:59.800 our Bloomberg mid Washington. The White House calls it the 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:04.000 Millionaire Minimum Income Tax. It's the most aggressive proposal yet 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:07.720 by the administration to increase taxation on the wealthiest Americans. 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:10.360 If enacted, it will hit both the income and the 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:14.160 unrealized capital gains of hundred million dollar households and generate 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:17.560 an estimated three hundred sixty billion dollars in new revenue 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:20.000 over the next decade. That's more than a third of 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:23.160 the White Houses projected trillion dollar cut to deficit spending 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:27.320 over that period. In Washington, I maybe Morris Bloomberg daybreak right, Amy, 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:29.920 thank you. The economy is also in focus this week. 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:32.800 Friday brings the government's jobs report for March, and we 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:36.440 get more from Bloomberg's Viney down judas. US unemployment is 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:39.320 poised to fall, with jobless claims the lowisons in the 0:04:39.400 --> 0:04:43.000 nineteen sixties and job openings at records. The March trade 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:45.120 could go as low as three point six or three 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.720 point seven percent. According to some forecasters. Unemployments at a 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:52.080 record high of fourteen point seven percent in April one, 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:55.120 the pandemic struck the record load two point five percent 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:58.400 dates back to the nineteen fifties. Also this week, h 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:04.839 S M factory data consume we're spending consumer confidence break thanks, Vinny. 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:07.359 Fixed income is front and center this morning. Is the 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:10.159 steepest global bond route of the modern era shows no 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.640 sign of slowing. Ten year treasure yelds of climbed past 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:15.280 two and a half percent, Yields on five year notes 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:18.159 rose above those on thirty year bonds and inversion for 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:21.039 those maturities for the first time since two thousand and six. 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:24.599 It's just concern over an economic downturn and perhaps even 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:27.279 a recession. Well, Nathan, we're seeing big moves in the 0:05:27.360 --> 0:05:30.120 Japanese yenn this morning. This after the Bank of Japan 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:32.640 offered to buy an unlimited amount of bonds for three 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:35.240 straight days. It's the first time the central bank has 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:37.880 made such a move. And checking the yen, it's trading 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:40.960 at the weakest level in seven years at a hundred 0:05:40.960 --> 0:05:43.599 twenty four point six two against the dollar. How many 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:47.080 time Karen Covid is threatening economic activity in China again. 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:50.800 Shanghai has declared a lockdown to combat a surge in cases. 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:54.119 We get the tales from Bloomberg's Emma O'Brien looking down 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:57.680 for four days one part of the city, which does 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:01.040 include the financial district in Podong, and then the next 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.479 four days after that locking down the other side of 0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:06.400 the city. And during those four day periods they will 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:10.240 be mass testing the entire population as part of China's 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:14.120 COVID zero strategy, which they are maintaining to really root 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:17.560 out and suppress virus cases. And Bloomberg exam O'Brien says 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:20.520 the lockdowns will extend to the roads. Private cars will 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:23.680 not be allowed to drive unless necessary, and Nathan that 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:27.560 lockdown will hit production for Tesla in China. Bloomberg News 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:30.320 has learned the electric car maker is extending a production 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:33.719 pause at its Shanghai plant for another four days because 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:37.160 of the restrictions. The original plan called forces spending production 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:39.560 just one day. I meantime, in southern China, care and 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:42.560 investigators have recovered the second black box from last week's 0:06:42.560 --> 0:06:45.599 deadly China Eastern plane crash. All one thirty two people 0:06:45.600 --> 0:06:47.760 on board were killed when the jet nose dived from 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:50.760 nearly thirty thousand feet. We get the latest from Bloomberg's 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:54.479 Philip Glaman. Investigators in Woodjow here in southern China have 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:58.000 a big booster investigations by planning the second black box 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:01.320 that gives them information on the movement of the plane 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.040 in the performance of the engine. And he goes along 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:07.000 with the black box that found earlier that records of 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.920 what was said in the cockpit. Bloomberg's Philip glam And 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:12.520 says the flight data recorder has been sent to Beijing 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:15.880 for analysis. Straight ahead, your latest local headlines and a 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:23.920 check of sports. This is Bloomberg. It's sound five oh 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:26.520 seven on Wall Street. We're twenty four degrees in Central Park. 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:29.480 Vehicle fire earlier on eastbound cross Bronx Expressway and your 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:31.680 bronxter Parkway. We'll get the details on that for you 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:34.400 in traffic. First, Michael bar is here with what else 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:36.280 is going on in New York and around the world. 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:39.200 Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. The Cinderella team of 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:42.280 the n C Double a man's basketball tournament, we'll still 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:46.080 get a hero's welcome. After being illuminated. St. Peter's University 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:49.720 lost to North Carolina, the Peacocks made tournament history as 0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:53.640 the first fifteen seed to reach the Elite eight. Fans 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:56.880 back home in Jersey City launched the game, cheering for 0:07:57.040 --> 0:07:59.840 how far the team advanced. They had a great season. 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.920 He really can't say nothing bad about it. Jersey City 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:07.280 Mayor Stephen Fullip said on Twitter that after the Peacocks 0:08:07.320 --> 0:08:10.520 had their historic tournament run, the city would still hold 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:13.320 a parade and the Keys to the City ceremony for 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:17.240 the team. The January sixth Panel says two ex advisors 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:20.040 to former President Donald Trump should be held in contempt 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:23.320 of Congress because they are withholding information at the House. 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:27.280 Committee considers central to its investigation of events surrounding last 0:08:27.360 --> 0:08:30.160 year's attack on the U. S. Capitol. According to a 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:34.120 report released by the investigating Committee, former White House Deputy 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:38.079 Chief of Staff for Communications Dan Scavino may have had 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:41.680 advance morning about the potential for violence. The panel is 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:44.880 set to meet tonight to hold on recommending that the 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:49.080 House of Representatives holds Comino and Trump's trade advisor Peter 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:54.120 Navarro in contempt. The Academy Emotion, Pictures, Arts and Sciences 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:56.960 says it does not condone violence in any form. After 0:08:57.040 --> 0:09:00.840 fireworks at Sunday Nights OSCARS, minutes before we're accepting his 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:05.280 Best Actor award, Will Smith slap presenter Chris Rock on 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:09.440 stage after taking offense to a joke about his wife Jada, 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:12.080 I love him, g I Jane two. Can't wait to 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:20.480 see it all right? And that was that was a 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:29.360 nice one. Okay? How about here? Oh Richard? Oh Wow. 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.720 Smith later accepted the Best Actor award for King Richard 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:36.720 l said to me a few minutes ago. He said, actually, 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:40.120 highest moment, be careful. That's when the devil comes for you. 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:44.920 It's like a tass. Staine won the Best Actress Award. 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:48.120 The movie Coda on Apple won for Best Picture. Global 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:50.400 News twenty four hours a day on air and on 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:54.560 Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than journalists and analysts 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:59.520 are more than twenty countries. Michael Barrn, this is Bloomberg. Nathan. Okay, Michael, 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:05.920 thank you. Coming up to five ten on Wall Street 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:08.000 time for the Bloomberg Sports up taked morning, John Stan, 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:10.880 Good morning Nathan, and the nets thirty six home game 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:13.600 of the season, the first for Kyrie Irving. His story 0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:16.040 well known as refusal to get the vaccine, a hot 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:18.440 topic not only in sports but at city hall. Last 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.920 week the private sector mandate lifted for him, and Kyrie 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:25.360 took the floor in Brooklyn. My presidents out there, which 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:27.439 are bigger than the basketball game, you know, which is 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:30.240 representing a lot of individuals better out there in similar 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:33.600 situation as me. Um And now that I have the playoff, 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.480 I think you should deal to bit for everybody. I 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:38.160 don't take it for granted. What happened tonight. It was 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:40.520 his story. I'm great for that I got a chance 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:42.120 to be out there with my brothers. The game did 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:44.360 not go well. Irving shot just six of twenty two. 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:47.080 The Nets lost to Charlotte one nine, one ten, almost 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.240 certainly too late for the Knicks playoff hosts, but they 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.000 are playing better of late. At three and oh roach trip. 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:53.559 They held on at Detroit one oh four one oh two. 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:55.679 Knicks blew at twenty one point leave, but Alec Berk's 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:57.440 the hero down the stretch of big three point shot 0:10:57.440 --> 0:10:59.920 in at the game saving steel at the Garden. Ranger 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.640 over Buffalo five for the Coandre Miller Gold too mon 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:05.760 attend to overtime. Recent Ranger pick up Frank Patranto scored 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:09.200 two goals eighteen seconds apart in the opening period. Islanders 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.720 lost to Tampa Bay the Devil's top Montreal in the shootout. 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:15.160 The clock did strike midnight for Cinderella. St. Peter has 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:17.800 lost My twenty to North Carolina. The Peacocks could be 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:21.280 losing their coach now. Shaheen Holloway, widely expected to leave 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:24.079 to become the head coach at his alma mater, Seaton Hall. 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:26.319 Carolina is going to its twenty first final four and 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:29.280 in New Orleans will play arch rival Duke sixteenth Final 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:32.440 four for Kansas and crushed Miami will now take on Villanova. 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.120 Mets had their aces on a mound. Jacob DeGrand pitched 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:37.280 three and as Max Schers are the last six together 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:40.400 twelve strikeouts in the met win the Yankees one, even 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:42.160 though they're ace. Garrett Cole give up a couple of 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:45.800 home runs. John stash Atward Bloomberg Sports Nathan Okay, John 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:49.080 thanks SMP futures down down five point stout futures up 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:52.360 to nast at futures are lower by fifty points. The 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:54.559 ten your treasury is down down six thirty seconds. The 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:57.360 yield at two point four nine percent. Take a look 0:11:57.400 --> 0:12:01.120 at the markets with a more aggressive Dennis Gartman, former 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:03.760 publisher of the Gartment Letter, joins us. Next. This is 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:09.640 Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather turning partly sunny, breeze 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:11.400 and cold. Today. High is only in the mid thirties. 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:13.520 We'll get up to around forty tomorrow with a breeze, 0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:17.120 increasing clouds Wednesday, with highs in the mid forties. Right 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:23.720 now twenty four in central Park markets headlines and breaking 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.600 news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com 0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:30.400 and Bloomberg Business Outland. At Bloomberg Quick Tape, He's a 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:39.960 Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow sovereign bonds are 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.600 tumbling while European stocks are gaining In US Dock Index 0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:47.120 futures are falling once again as economic risks from inflation 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:50.640 and tightening monetary policy hits sentiment. We checked the markets 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:53.840 every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. Right now, 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:56.120 U s and P futures are down eight points down, 0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:59.920 futures down fourteen, nasdack futures down sixty one. The DAD 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.079 and Germany's have one point three percent. Ten year treasury 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:05.480 down six thirties seconds. You have two point four nine 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:07.800 percent the yield on the two year two point three 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:11.319 seven percent. Nimex Screwed oil is down three point eight 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:13.679 percent on four dollars twenty eight cents at a hundred 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:16.599 nine dollars sixty two cents a barrel. Kovacs gold is 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.120 down one point four percent, or twenty seven dollars ninety 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:22.480 cents At nineteen thirty one. Ninety announced the euro one 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:25.360 point o nine seven four against the dollar British found 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.080 one point three one two nine, the yen at one 0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:32.000 twenty four point six six, and bitcoin this morning moving 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:36.000 higher up about two percent at forty seven thousand, sixteen dollars. 0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:39.040 That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Muchael Barr with 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:41.920 more on what's going on around the world. Muchael, Good morning, 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:45.400 Good morning. Karen. Ukrainian and a Russian officials announced that 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:47.600 they have agreed to a new round of in person 0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.320 peace talks to be held in Turkey. It comes as 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.200 the White House walks back comments President Biden made about 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:57.040 Vladimir Putin, saying this man cannot remain in power. It 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.960 is the water cooler talk today. During last night's account 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.440 Me Awards, Will Smith slapped Chris Rock on stage after 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:07.400 the comedian made a joke about Smith's wife, Jada Pinkett Smith. 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:11.360 Smith later won the Best Actor, Oscar Jessica Chastain won 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:14.520 Best Actress. Coda from the Apple streaming Service won for 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.040 Best Picture. The final four set of the Man's nc 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:20.600 Double A basketball tournament, North Carolina plays Duke Kansas will 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.040 face Villanova in the NBA. Kyrie Irving played his first 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.320 home game of the season, but the Nets lost. The 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.320 Knicks and Celtics won. The Wizards beat the Warriors, NHL 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:32.040 Rangers one in ot over the Sabers, the Devil's won 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.120 in a shootout over the Canadiens. The Islanders lost. Global 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.080 News twenty four hours a day on here and on 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:41.080 Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than journalists analysts in 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:43.600 more than a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr, and 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:46.760 this is Bloomberg Nathan. Okay, Michael, thanks for coming up 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:48.960 to five twenty on Wall Street Line from the Bloomberg 0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:52.640 Interactive Brokers Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak as we get 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:55.760 the trading weeks started. We're joined by Dennis Startman, former 0:14:55.800 --> 0:14:58.120 publisher of the Gartment Letter, now Chairman of the University 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:01.440 of Akron and Dowmind Investment Committee. Dennis, Good morning. Tension 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:05.080 isn't only on the Academy Awards stage onder in Hollywood. 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:07.920 We're also seeing lots of tension playing out in the 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:12.600 bond market this morning. The global route continues fives and 0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:16.960 thirties inverted. What is the bond market signaling right now? 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.560 The bottom? I'm afraid the bondom market is signal that 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:22.760 the set is going to be a little tighter than 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:24.960 people had anticipated, that the economy is going to be 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:28.640 a little weaker than anticipated, that recession is a possibility. 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:32.440 The fact I watched the five year ten year spread, 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:34.240 and the fact that you've got five years now at 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:38.200 a substantial premium over ten years. The yield curve belly 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:40.200 of the of the curve has inverted. It did so 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.880 about two weeks ago. It continues to move towards an 0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:46.360 inversion two is or heading quietly higher, likely to go 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:48.880 to an inversion over ten. So the yield curve itself 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:51.520 in the major area of the curve, in the middle 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:53.320 of the curve is going to an inversion. I think 0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:56.360 it's delty the stock market. I think it's deletarious to 0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:58.640 the economy, and I think it tells you that recession 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:02.240 is a possibility, so be careful out there. How much 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:06.320 of a possibility do you see a recession? I think 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:10.120 within the next year there's the sixties sixties. Probability of 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:13.640 recession coming just depends how inverted the yeld curve gets. 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:16.000 People want to talk about the fact that the curve 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:20.680 has in the past not been the greatest anticipator of recessions. Well, 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:22.760 every recession we've had has been and has seen the 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.160 inn inverted curve. But we've seen in inverted curves and 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:28.280 not had recessions. However, when you have an inverted curve 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:31.720 in and a spike in crude oil prices, the odds 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.160 of recession go up rather dramatically. So I think it's 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:38.440 at least in the course of the next twelve months. 0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:41.040 I think it's very likely possibility. Well, what do you 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.480 think the FED is going to do? Obviously the market 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:48.440 has priced in now two full percentage point hikes by 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:51.120 the end of this year. We've heard from analyst at 0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:55.040 City Group calling for fifty basis point increases at the 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:57.040 next four meetings. Do you think the FED will be 0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:00.160 that aggressive? I doubt the FED will be that so 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:01.960 I doubt that they'll go fifty in the next two 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:05.240 I think they'll go fifty, so I shouldn't say certainly, 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.560 but very probably in the May meeting. I doubt that 0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:11.480 they'll go fifty in the next meeting after that. But I, 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:14.119 having been in the market for forty five years, if 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:15.919 I've learned anything about the FED, it's that when they 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:18.560 begin to tighten, or when they begin to ease. They 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:21.720 moved rates much farther than anybody can possibly anticipate in 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.719 either direction. The fact is that the FED has remained 0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.560 far too very for far too long. They will have 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.880 to remain contractionary for far too long and and take 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:33.880 rates far higher than people anticipate. Where will where will 0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:36.080 the overnight said funds right be a year from now 0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:38.600 demonstrably higher than it is right now? But are we 0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:40.840 going to see fifties and fifties and fifties on the 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.200 next several meetings? I doubt that substantially. I think the 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:48.800 FED fears uh imposing recession upon the economy, so it'll 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:51.200 be reticent to move fifty fifty fifty. But will it 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:53.000 take great higher over the course of next year and 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:55.280 a half or so, There's not a question about that. 0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:58.040 Do you think the FED can pull off a soft 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:02.040 landing with the with the path it it's laid out. No, 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:06.119 the FET has been unable to to create soft landings 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.440 in the past. I think the feds ability to create 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:11.440 a soft landing in the future is is marginal at best. 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.600 The set has heard badly almost every time it has 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:17.920 taken an action of major consequence in the in the 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.320 course of history. I don't see that there there any 0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:23.480 smarter now than they were ten years ago, fifteen years ago, 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:26.720 thirty years ago, fifty years ago. The federal or badly 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:30.800 in all directions, always has and always will. So where 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:34.359 do you find hedges in this market? We've heard some 0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:38.320 talk about large cap stocks being the new inflation heads. 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:40.760 Do you think that's a good idea? The only thing 0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:43.800 I trade for myself and I have some some control 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:48.000 University of Akrons endowment, and I've reduced my exposure to 0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:50.560 the stock market dramatically. The only areas of the stocks 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:54.480 that I own are oil companies and a few large 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:58.600 cap high dividend payers that that whose dividends are covered 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:03.359 rather dramatically and covered well. So I'm taking an old 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:08.919 kur mudgeon's rather substantive portfolio blue chips, high dividend payers. 0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:12.080 I'm away from tech. I I don't trust tech even slightly, 0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:14.879 and I don't trust small cap. And one thing that 0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:17.000 I won't have any interest at all, and it's it's 0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:19.440 emerging markets. I'll leave that to other people. As my 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:22.320 friend Don Cox once said, the definition of an oranging 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:24.399 market is a market from which you cannot emerge in 0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:26.800 an emergency, and I remained, I think that's one of 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:29.520 the great lines of all time. Thanks, as always for 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:31.399 your insights, then it's good to have you on with us. 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:34.240 Dennis Gartman, former publisher of the Gartment Letter, now Chairman 0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:39.280 of the University of Akron Endowment Investment Committee. Futures slightly 0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:42.320 lower now with SMP futures down seven point, staff futures 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:45.480 little change, nest ACK futures lower by fifty nine points. 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.840 The tenure treasury is now down seven thirty seconds, the 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.560 yield just shive two and a half percent, yield on 0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:55.120 the two year two point three seven percent, and nim 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:57.800 X crewed right now down three eight percent, down four 0:19:57.840 --> 0:20:00.399 dollars thirty eight cents at a hundred nine dollars fifty 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:08.040 two cents a barrel. You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Bloomberg 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:10.720 eleven three oh weather tourney partly sunny, breezy, cold today 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:12.440 with highs only in the mid thirties, will be near 0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:16.399 forty breezy tomorrow, sunshine Wednesday followed by increasing clouds with 0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:25.000 currently in Central Park. Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interacted 0:20:25.119 --> 0:20:28.960 Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg e Living Freedom to Washington, 0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:33.119 d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.680 do San Francisco, Bloomberg N sixty to the country, Sirius 0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:39.399 XM to the one nineteen and around the globe the 0:20:39.480 --> 0:20:43.359 Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is 0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:51.920 Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty on Wall Street. Good morning. 0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:54.720 I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm Karin Moscow, and we're just 0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:57.520 about four hours away from the open of US trading. 0:20:57.560 --> 0:20:58.920 Let's catch you have to date in the news. You 0:20:59.000 --> 0:21:01.560 need to know what this show or Peacetos between Ukraine 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:05.080 and Russia resuming Turkey this week, but that's being overshadowed 0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:08.200 by comments by President Biden over the weekend. He took 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:11.040 aim at the leadership of Vladimir Putin. We'll have a 0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:14.720 different future, of brighter future, rooted democracy. In principle, open 0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:19.760 right j is the indignitive freedom of possibilities. For God's sake, 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:24.720 this man couldnot remain and quote, this man cannot remain 0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:28.159 in power. Those words reverberating across Europe this morning. The 0:21:28.240 --> 0:21:30.920 White House trying to clarify the president's re mark, saying 0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:34.080 he was not calling for regime changes in Russia. Well, 0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:37.040 critics say President Biden's comment is a boost for Putin, 0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:39.280 Karen and we get more on that from Bloomberg International 0:21:39.320 --> 0:21:41.880 Affairs reporter Mark Champion. The words of what they are, 0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:44.879 they are a gift to as and Putin, who has 0:21:44.920 --> 0:21:47.760 been arguing that this is not a war against Ukraine. 0:21:47.800 --> 0:21:52.240