Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: President Trump said Monday the US will not be rushed
Speaker 2: into a quote bad deal with Iran, but he also
Speaker 2: said it is highly unlikely he will extend the two
Speaker 2: weeks cease fire with Iran if a deal is not
Speaker 2: reached before it expires Wednesday evening, and that the US
Speaker 2: would continue its blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait
Speaker 2: of Hormuz until a final agreement is reached. Trump's comments
Speaker 2: come as the US and Iran way whether to move
Speaker 2: forward with a second round of talks in Islamabad. Iran
Speaker 2: had initially said it was hesitant to participate in further
Speaker 2: peace talks with the US, but people familiar with the
Speaker 2: plans now say Tehran will send a delegation to Pakistan.
Speaker 2: Tensions between the US and Iran escalated sharply over the
Speaker 2: weekend after US forces fired on and seized in Iranian
Speaker 2: flagged cargo ship.
Speaker 3: Fear and confusion growing over the Strait of horm moves
Speaker 3: ships coming under.
Speaker 2: Fire as they try to transit the critical waterway. President
Speaker 2: Trump posting the US forces have fired on and seized
Speaker 2: an Iranian flag vessel that tried to get past the
Speaker 2: American blockade and ignored warnings to stop. The US said
Speaker 2: the ship had refused to comply with the blockade of
Speaker 2: the Strait of horm Moves. That followed more than a
Speaker 2: day of back and forth between Washington and Tehran, which
Speaker 2: included Iran once again closing the Strait of Horror moves
Speaker 2: and firing on vessels attempting to pass through.
Speaker 1: There already was uncertainty, and it feels like at this
Speaker 1: moment there's just even more uncertainty about the prospects of
Speaker 1: getting a deal here.
Speaker 2: Kate Sullivan is a White House correspondent for Bloomberg. She's
Speaker 2: been watching the president's rhetoric closely.
Speaker 1: He keeps saying, you know, it's almost done or basically there.
Speaker 1: And something he told me was, you know, we have
Speaker 1: all the main points finalized and we're just working out
Speaker 1: a few things. But that's not you know, we hear
Speaker 1: that kind of rhetoric from the President and from White
Speaker 1: House officials. We're hearing a very different narrative from Iranian
Speaker 1: state media, and a lot of things are being contradicted,
Speaker 1: and there's just a lot of confusion around what is
Speaker 1: actually happening.
Speaker 2: I'm Stacey Vanoxmith in for Sarah Holder and David Gura,
Speaker 2: And this is the big take from Bloomberg News Today
Speaker 2: on the show. With the looming expiration of a two
Speaker 2: week cease fire, the US and Iran are once again
Speaker 2: at a dangerous impasse. What we know about a potential
Speaker 2: second round of negotiations in Islamabad, the sticking points driving
Speaker 2: the latest escalation, and where the White House could go
Speaker 2: from here. A brief de escalation in tensions with Iran
Speaker 2: has quickly given way to re escalation. As a White
Speaker 2: House correspondent, Bloomberg's Kate Sullivan has had a front row
Speaker 2: seat to the whiplash. She spoke to President Trump Friday
Speaker 2: when he was optimistic about the strait of Hornmone's reopening
Speaker 2: and finalizing a deal between the US and Iran.
Speaker 1: I just called him. I have his cell phone number
Speaker 1: to report.
Speaker 3: I do.
Speaker 1: And it's really interesting because I think a lot of
Speaker 1: people when I was talking about this with people, they thought, oh, no,
Speaker 1: you call somebody who then puts you on the line
Speaker 1: with him, or there's like a middle person, or you
Speaker 1: call an assistant or somebody else, a White House official,
Speaker 1: perhaps communications director.
Speaker 3: But no, it's just his cell phone number.
Speaker 2: On that call, the President told Kate the deal could
Speaker 2: move quickly and that most of the big issues had
Speaker 2: been worked out already.
Speaker 1: What he was projecting was a real optimism about the
Speaker 1: prospects of getting a deal.
Speaker 2: But oh what a difference a weekend makes now it
Speaker 2: seems lots of sticking points remain.
Speaker 1: So I would say the future of Iran's nuclear program
Speaker 1: is the most important thing for the president. He wants
Speaker 1: Iran to never be able to acquire a nuclear weapon,
Speaker 1: and the sticking points, you know, there are questions about
Speaker 1: what this would be if a deal is breached, whether
Speaker 1: there would be a temporary suspension, whether Iran would be
Speaker 1: able to still enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
Speaker 2: On Friday, the President said the US would work with
Speaker 2: Iran to recover its enriched uranium and bring it to
Speaker 2: the US. A spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry told State
Speaker 2: TV that was never on the table and that Iran
Speaker 2: saw the transfer of its nuclear material to the US
Speaker 2: as a non starter. Then, of course, there's the issue
Speaker 2: of the Strait of horm Moves, through which about a
Speaker 2: fifth of the world's oil and liquid natural gas flowed
Speaker 2: every day before the start of the conflict.
Speaker 1: Because there are concerns now that Iran controls the Strait
Speaker 1: and can really manage the flow of now indefinitely, perhaps
Speaker 1: charge tolls for ships passing through, and just I think
Speaker 1: what happens with the strait, whether there are any restrictions.
Speaker 1: I asked the President a couple of times on Friday,
Speaker 1: are there going to be restrictions?
Speaker 3: Are there going to be tolls?
Speaker 1: And he said no, no, like so it seems this
Speaker 1: is a very important thing for the US to just
Speaker 1: have it actually be completely open. Whether that is actually
Speaker 1: going to be the case is a huge question mark,
Speaker 1: because Iran seems that they are really using the control
Speaker 1: of the Strait as a huge leverage point here for Iran.
Speaker 2: A big point of contention has been the United States
Speaker 2: blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait, which led to
Speaker 2: the seizure of the Iranian flagship over the weekend. Since
Speaker 2: the start of the blockade, the US military has intercepted
Speaker 2: or turned back more than two dozen vessels.
Speaker 1: The President is very focused on projecting strength and sort
Speaker 1: of he's making these maximalist threats and demands, and it's
Speaker 1: very much in line with his negotiating style.
Speaker 3: It's something we've seen over and over again.
Speaker 1: He will, you know, I mean going back to just
Speaker 1: that post about we will take out an entire a
Speaker 1: whole civilization, and we've seen a lot of inflammatory, threatening rhetoric,
Speaker 1: and you know, again there the President is renewed threats
Speaker 1: on Iranian infrastructure and saying that if we don't get
Speaker 1: a deal, you know, the bombing will start again. And
Speaker 1: so I think it's a way for the President to
Speaker 1: just just try to keep up this pressure on Iran.
Speaker 1: I think the sheer volume or amount of military might
Speaker 1: that is in the region right now is just stunning,
Speaker 1: and I think he's just unwilling to really pull back
Speaker 1: those forces and wants to keep that blockade in place
Speaker 1: until he feels like this has been resolved and we
Speaker 1: have an actual deal and it's signed and it's done.
Speaker 2: How much pressure is on Iran right now, like, how
Speaker 2: do we have a sense of how long they can
Speaker 2: withstand a blockade economically and or is that kind of
Speaker 2: an unknown?
Speaker 1: I think the White House is hoping the blockade and
Speaker 1: all the pressure that they're putting on it's something that
Speaker 1: they can't withstand for too long. But I think they
Speaker 1: have also been surprised, frankly, and I think there are
Speaker 1: people within the White House and perhaps allies of the
Speaker 1: White House, and perhaps the President himself had been surprised
Speaker 1: at how resilient Iran has been throughout this. I think
Speaker 1: there was a thinking, especially with Venezuela and just how
Speaker 1: that operation unfolded and how quick that was. The President
Speaker 1: has made some references and you know, spoke about Venezuela
Speaker 1: when he was addressing the nation and giving an update
Speaker 1: on Iran, and it seems like he thought that this
Speaker 1: would be faster and frankly, maybe easier than it has been.
Speaker 1: And I think there has been some surprise at how
Speaker 1: Iran has responded to this, and certainly with the counter
Speaker 1: strikes and the missiles that they launched it neighboring countries,
Speaker 1: But just I think the way that they've been able
Speaker 1: to withstand this pressure so far, it's a great question
Speaker 1: about how long this can actually go on before there's
Speaker 1: really a breaking point. And I'm not sure anyone really
Speaker 1: knows that for sure, but I think the White House
Speaker 1: is hoping that all the pressure that they're putting on
Speaker 1: Iran is going to really help force this deal, because
Speaker 1: it's it is an extraordinary amount of pressure that is
Speaker 1: that is on them right now.
Speaker 2: So the big question is, if talks resume this week,
Speaker 2: can the US and Iran make any progress on these
Speaker 2: issues when the two sides seem so far apart.
Speaker 1: I think the things that I'm watching for are do
Speaker 1: these talks actually take place, what comes out of them?
Speaker 1: Is it going to be like the first round where
Speaker 1: it fell short of their expectations in terms of trying
Speaker 1: to secure a deal, and you know, the last round
Speaker 1: of talks did not produce a deal. JD.
Speaker 3: Vance.
Speaker 1: I thought it was really a big statement to send
Speaker 1: the Vice President to these talks, just.
Speaker 2: As far as like sending a really high powered person.
Speaker 1: Exactly what I was hearing from White House officials was
Speaker 1: that by sending somebody who was actually elected by the
Speaker 1: American people, who was on the ballot, that it added
Speaker 1: an extra layer of credibility and weight and signaled to
Speaker 1: the Iranians that the US was serious about trying to
Speaker 1: make a deal here and that they weren't just trying
Speaker 1: to drag this out.
Speaker 2: As Vice President Vance heads to Pakistan for another round
Speaker 2: of negotiations, how is Kate preparing to parse the mixed
Speaker 2: messaging about those meetings that may come from the White House,
Speaker 2: And how's that back and forth playing with voters that's next.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Kate Sullivan has been describing the mixed messages coming
Speaker 2: out of the US and Iran about pretty much everything
Speaker 2: related to this conflict. The US says one thing, Iran
Speaker 2: says another. So I wanted to ask her is this strategic?
Speaker 2: Is this power struggle? Is this a natural byproduct of
Speaker 2: chaos and confusion?
Speaker 1: It might be all of the above, yes, And okay,
Speaker 1: it's a great question because what we keep hearing from
Speaker 1: the White House. I've been in a few briefings with
Speaker 1: Caroline Levett, who has said what we're hearing from Iran
Speaker 1: publicly is very different from what we're hearing from them privately.
Speaker 1: There are a lot of contradictory messages. The President will say,
Speaker 1: you know, Iran has agreed to do this, or they're
Speaker 1: even just the talks that are supposed to take place
Speaker 1: in the coming days. He said, you know that they're
Speaker 1: taking place. Iran says those talks were never actually confirmed.
Speaker 1: So just even like agreeing to have the talks, I mean,
Speaker 1: there's so much flying around it is overwhelming. I think
Speaker 1: for everybody to try to get a handle on what
Speaker 1: is actually happening. It feels like every time the President
Speaker 1: says Iran has communicated this to us, and this is
Speaker 1: what's going to happen, it's trickled through state media that
Speaker 1: that is not the case. And so the President, he famously,
Speaker 1: you know, considers himself a powerful negotiator, and I think
Speaker 1: part of the deal, it's a big part of his
Speaker 1: public persona and image and reputation. There is some thought
Speaker 1: that goes into, you know, like what is the public
Speaker 1: messaging here in terms of what is the pressure that
Speaker 1: we can put on them publicly. Perhaps they have not
Speaker 1: actually agreed to this, but if we say that they have,
Speaker 1: and I'm just curious how jd. Vance is going to
Speaker 1: explain what happened in those talks versus how the Iranians
Speaker 1: are going to say what happened in those talks, And
Speaker 1: whether you know, the ceasefire is going to get extended
Speaker 1: or we're still going to be back to square one basically.
Speaker 2: I mean, as someone who is reported on this White
Speaker 2: House spoken with the President, I'm assuming you've got some
Speaker 2: insider sources. Is this kind of a mess right now?
Speaker 2: Is their strategy happeningneath the seeming chaos.
Speaker 1: I learned a long time ago to never predict anything
Speaker 1: with certainty when it comes to Donald Trump, and I
Speaker 1: do think that there is a real desire by the
Speaker 1: White House, by the President to find an off ramp
Speaker 1: here and try to wrap this up as soon as possible.
Speaker 3: Relative to other war the President.
Speaker 1: Keeps pointing out, you know, the Vietnam War was so
Speaker 1: much longer, as was the Hunters. Right, we have been
Speaker 1: in this for a while now, but I think there
Speaker 1: is a real desire by the White House to try
Speaker 1: to figure out how to walk away with this and
Speaker 1: declare victory in some way. I think regardless of what
Speaker 1: happens and what the Iranians agree to, there will be
Speaker 1: a great deal of spin about what the US got
Speaker 1: out of this war as he tries to justify it
Speaker 1: to the American people. Again, it's a very unpopular war.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people who voted for him
Speaker 1: are confus used about why the US is involved in
Speaker 1: this in the first place. And we've seen a lot
Speaker 1: of people who voted for the president, conservative podcasters and
Speaker 1: influencers and just people online saying.
Speaker 3: This is not what we voted for.
Speaker 1: We voted for a president who said that he was
Speaker 1: not going to you know, no new wars.
Speaker 3: Get us out of wars.
Speaker 1: And I think the White House is very aware of
Speaker 1: the criticism that they're getting because it's just it's becoming
Speaker 1: louder and louder.
Speaker 2: How do you expect all of this back and forth
Speaker 2: and the attack on Iran and everything happening right now
Speaker 2: to play in the upcoming midterm elections?
Speaker 1: Very critical and it will have a huge impact on
Speaker 1: what the President is able to accomplish, what he's able
Speaker 1: to get through Congress, and just his agenda. I think
Speaker 1: the White House and the President, i think are very
Speaker 1: aware of the economic pain points that high gas prices
Speaker 1: and how people are really feeling that the unpopularity of
Speaker 1: the war.
Speaker 3: It could potentially.
Speaker 1: Have a huge impact on the mid terms. If you remember,
Speaker 1: gas prices was a big part of this where the
Speaker 1: President was at the beginning touting you know, we've had
Speaker 1: lower gas prices than under Biden, and this is this
Speaker 1: is a big selling point. Now it's still over four
Speaker 1: dollars a gallon, and we're hearing mixed messages from top
Speaker 1: cabinet officials about when that might go down because frankly,
Speaker 1: they don't. It depends on what's what's happening with the
Speaker 1: straight of horror moves and the war, and they don't
Speaker 1: know what's going to happen there.
Speaker 2: Sixty seven percent of Americans now disapprove of the way
Speaker 2: Trump is handling the war with Iran. That is, according
Speaker 2: to a new poll from NBC. The same share, sixty
Speaker 2: seven percent also said the US is on the wrong track.
Speaker 2: That's up from sixty percent a year ago. Kate traveled
Speaker 2: with the President last week as he attempted to shift
Speaker 2: focus to domestic issues. He held a round table in
Speaker 2: Las Vegas on his initiative to eliminate taxes on tips.
Speaker 1: Thanks to our cutch it the economy is booming. Our
Speaker 1: economy is booming. You know, you don't read about it.
Speaker 1: You don't see it so much because of what's going
Speaker 1: on in Iran, which is really you know, there was
Speaker 1: a very clear attempt at trying to pivot the conversation
Speaker 1: to you know, domestic politics and the economy. And it's
Speaker 1: a pivot that we've seen tempted several times. You know,
Speaker 1: I feel like every few.
Speaker 2: Weeks, mean, every politician tries to pivot right exactly but
Speaker 2: it tail as old as politics.
Speaker 1: Exactly exactly, and it's just I think the people around
Speaker 1: Trump and his top officials are really eager to have
Speaker 1: that be the messaging. But of course there's no breaking
Speaker 1: through when these like massive headlines about the Iran war
Speaker 1: are really dominating. You know, one person close to the
Speaker 1: White House was telling me, you know, there's just you
Speaker 1: cannot control when he gets in front of the cameras,
Speaker 1: what he's going to say, what he's going to get
Speaker 1: asked about.
Speaker 3: And the implications are huge.
Speaker 1: It is a critical electioneers, of course, not a presidential electioneer,
Speaker 1: but it will have a huge impact on what the
Speaker 1: president is able to get done, depending on what if
Speaker 1: Democrats are controlling the House or the Senate, or just
Speaker 1: what happens in the midterms.
Speaker 2: Kate Sulivin, thank you so much for talking with us.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Stacy Bannocksmith.
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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.