WEBVTT - With a Ceasefire Deadline Looming, Can the US and Iran Break Their Deadlock?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump said Monday the US will not be rushed

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<v Speaker 2>into a quote bad deal with Iran, but he also

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<v Speaker 2>said it is highly unlikely he will extend the two

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<v Speaker 2>weeks cease fire with Iran if a deal is not

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<v Speaker 2>reached before it expires Wednesday evening, and that the US

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<v Speaker 2>would continue its blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait

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<v Speaker 2>of Hormuz until a final agreement is reached. Trump's comments

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<v Speaker 2>come as the US and Iran way whether to move

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<v Speaker 2>forward with a second round of talks in Islamabad. Iran

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<v Speaker 2>had initially said it was hesitant to participate in further

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<v Speaker 2>peace talks with the US, but people familiar with the

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<v Speaker 2>plans now say Tehran will send a delegation to Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 2>Tensions between the US and Iran escalated sharply over the

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<v Speaker 2>weekend after US forces fired on and seized in Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>flagged cargo ship.

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<v Speaker 3>Fear and confusion growing over the Strait of horm moves

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<v Speaker 3>ships coming under.

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<v Speaker 2>Fire as they try to transit the critical waterway. President

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<v Speaker 2>Trump posting the US forces have fired on and seized

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<v Speaker 2>an Iranian flag vessel that tried to get past the

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<v Speaker 2>American blockade and ignored warnings to stop. The US said

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<v Speaker 2>the ship had refused to comply with the blockade of

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<v Speaker 2>the Strait of horm Moves. That followed more than a

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<v Speaker 2>day of back and forth between Washington and Tehran, which

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<v Speaker 2>included Iran once again closing the Strait of Horror moves

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<v Speaker 2>and firing on vessels attempting to pass through.

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<v Speaker 1>There already was uncertainty, and it feels like at this

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<v Speaker 1>moment there's just even more uncertainty about the prospects of

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<v Speaker 1>getting a deal here.

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<v Speaker 2>Kate Sullivan is a White House correspondent for Bloomberg. She's

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<v Speaker 2>been watching the president's rhetoric closely.

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<v Speaker 1>He keeps saying, you know, it's almost done or basically there.

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<v Speaker 1>And something he told me was, you know, we have

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<v Speaker 1>all the main points finalized and we're just working out

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<v Speaker 1>a few things. But that's not you know, we hear

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<v Speaker 1>that kind of rhetoric from the President and from White

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<v Speaker 1>House officials. We're hearing a very different narrative from Iranian

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<v Speaker 1>state media, and a lot of things are being contradicted,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's just a lot of confusion around what is

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<v Speaker 1>actually happening.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Stacey Vanoxmith in for Sarah Holder and David Gura,

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<v Speaker 2>And this is the big take from Bloomberg News Today

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<v Speaker 2>on the show. With the looming expiration of a two

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<v Speaker 2>week cease fire, the US and Iran are once again

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<v Speaker 2>at a dangerous impasse. What we know about a potential

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<v Speaker 2>second round of negotiations in Islamabad, the sticking points driving

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<v Speaker 2>the latest escalation, and where the White House could go

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<v Speaker 2>from here. A brief de escalation in tensions with Iran

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<v Speaker 2>has quickly given way to re escalation. As a White

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<v Speaker 2>House correspondent, Bloomberg's Kate Sullivan has had a front row

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<v Speaker 2>seat to the whiplash. She spoke to President Trump Friday

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<v Speaker 2>when he was optimistic about the strait of Hornmone's reopening

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<v Speaker 2>and finalizing a deal between the US and Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>I just called him. I have his cell phone number

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<v Speaker 1>to report.

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<v Speaker 3>I do.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's really interesting because I think a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people when I was talking about this with people, they thought, oh, no,

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<v Speaker 1>you call somebody who then puts you on the line

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<v Speaker 1>with him, or there's like a middle person, or you

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<v Speaker 1>call an assistant or somebody else, a White House official,

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps communications director.

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<v Speaker 3>But no, it's just his cell phone number.

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<v Speaker 2>On that call, the President told Kate the deal could

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<v Speaker 2>move quickly and that most of the big issues had

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<v Speaker 2>been worked out already.

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<v Speaker 1>What he was projecting was a real optimism about the

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<v Speaker 1>prospects of getting a deal.

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<v Speaker 2>But oh what a difference a weekend makes now it

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<v Speaker 2>seems lots of sticking points remain.

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<v Speaker 1>So I would say the future of Iran's nuclear program

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<v Speaker 1>is the most important thing for the president. He wants

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<v Speaker 1>Iran to never be able to acquire a nuclear weapon,

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<v Speaker 1>and the sticking points, you know, there are questions about

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<v Speaker 1>what this would be if a deal is breached, whether

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<v Speaker 1>there would be a temporary suspension, whether Iran would be

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<v Speaker 1>able to still enrich uranium for civilian purposes.

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<v Speaker 2>On Friday, the President said the US would work with

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<v Speaker 2>Iran to recover its enriched uranium and bring it to

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<v Speaker 2>the US. A spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry told State

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<v Speaker 2>TV that was never on the table and that Iran

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<v Speaker 2>saw the transfer of its nuclear material to the US

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<v Speaker 2>as a non starter. Then, of course, there's the issue

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<v Speaker 2>of the Strait of horm Moves, through which about a

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<v Speaker 2>fifth of the world's oil and liquid natural gas flowed

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<v Speaker 2>every day before the start of the conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>Because there are concerns now that Iran controls the Strait

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<v Speaker 1>and can really manage the flow of now indefinitely, perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>charge tolls for ships passing through, and just I think

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<v Speaker 1>what happens with the strait, whether there are any restrictions.

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<v Speaker 1>I asked the President a couple of times on Friday,

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<v Speaker 1>are there going to be restrictions?

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<v Speaker 3>Are there going to be tolls?

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<v Speaker 1>And he said no, no, like so it seems this

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<v Speaker 1>is a very important thing for the US to just

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<v Speaker 1>have it actually be completely open. Whether that is actually

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<v Speaker 1>going to be the case is a huge question mark,

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<v Speaker 1>because Iran seems that they are really using the control

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<v Speaker 1>of the Strait as a huge leverage point here for Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>A big point of contention has been the United States

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<v Speaker 2>blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait, which led to

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<v Speaker 2>the seizure of the Iranian flagship over the weekend. Since

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<v Speaker 2>the start of the blockade, the US military has intercepted

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<v Speaker 2>or turned back more than two dozen vessels.

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<v Speaker 1>The President is very focused on projecting strength and sort

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<v Speaker 1>of he's making these maximalist threats and demands, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>very much in line with his negotiating style.

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<v Speaker 3>It's something we've seen over and over again.

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<v Speaker 1>He will, you know, I mean going back to just

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<v Speaker 1>that post about we will take out an entire a

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<v Speaker 1>whole civilization, and we've seen a lot of inflammatory, threatening rhetoric,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, again there the President is renewed threats

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<v Speaker 1>on Iranian infrastructure and saying that if we don't get

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<v Speaker 1>a deal, you know, the bombing will start again. And

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<v Speaker 1>so I think it's a way for the President to

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<v Speaker 1>just just try to keep up this pressure on Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the sheer volume or amount of military might

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<v Speaker 1>that is in the region right now is just stunning,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think he's just unwilling to really pull back

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<v Speaker 1>those forces and wants to keep that blockade in place

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<v Speaker 1>until he feels like this has been resolved and we

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<v Speaker 1>have an actual deal and it's signed and it's done.

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<v Speaker 2>How much pressure is on Iran right now, like, how

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<v Speaker 2>do we have a sense of how long they can

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<v Speaker 2>withstand a blockade economically and or is that kind of

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<v Speaker 2>an unknown?

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<v Speaker 1>I think the White House is hoping the blockade and

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<v Speaker 1>all the pressure that they're putting on it's something that

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<v Speaker 1>they can't withstand for too long. But I think they

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<v Speaker 1>have also been surprised, frankly, and I think there are

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<v Speaker 1>people within the White House and perhaps allies of the

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<v Speaker 1>White House, and perhaps the President himself had been surprised

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<v Speaker 1>at how resilient Iran has been throughout this. I think

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<v Speaker 1>there was a thinking, especially with Venezuela and just how

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<v Speaker 1>that operation unfolded and how quick that was. The President

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<v Speaker 1>has made some references and you know, spoke about Venezuela

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<v Speaker 1>when he was addressing the nation and giving an update

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<v Speaker 1>on Iran, and it seems like he thought that this

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<v Speaker 1>would be faster and frankly, maybe easier than it has been.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think there has been some surprise at how

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<v Speaker 1>Iran has responded to this, and certainly with the counter

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<v Speaker 1>strikes and the missiles that they launched it neighboring countries,

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<v Speaker 1>But just I think the way that they've been able

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<v Speaker 1>to withstand this pressure so far, it's a great question

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<v Speaker 1>about how long this can actually go on before there's

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<v Speaker 1>really a breaking point. And I'm not sure anyone really

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<v Speaker 1>knows that for sure, but I think the White House

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<v Speaker 1>is hoping that all the pressure that they're putting on

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<v Speaker 1>Iran is going to really help force this deal, because

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<v Speaker 1>it's it is an extraordinary amount of pressure that is

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<v Speaker 1>that is on them right now.

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<v Speaker 2>So the big question is, if talks resume this week,

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<v Speaker 2>can the US and Iran make any progress on these

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<v Speaker 2>issues when the two sides seem so far apart.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the things that I'm watching for are do

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<v Speaker 1>these talks actually take place, what comes out of them?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it going to be like the first round where

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<v Speaker 1>it fell short of their expectations in terms of trying

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<v Speaker 1>to secure a deal, and you know, the last round

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<v Speaker 1>of talks did not produce a deal. JD.

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<v Speaker 3>Vance.

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<v Speaker 1>I thought it was really a big statement to send

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<v Speaker 1>the Vice President to these talks, just.

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<v Speaker 2>As far as like sending a really high powered person.

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<v Speaker 1>Exactly what I was hearing from White House officials was

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<v Speaker 1>that by sending somebody who was actually elected by the

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<v Speaker 1>American people, who was on the ballot, that it added

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<v Speaker 1>an extra layer of credibility and weight and signaled to

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<v Speaker 1>the Iranians that the US was serious about trying to

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<v Speaker 1>make a deal here and that they weren't just trying

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<v Speaker 1>to drag this out.

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<v Speaker 2>As Vice President Vance heads to Pakistan for another round

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<v Speaker 2>of negotiations, how is Kate preparing to parse the mixed

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<v Speaker 2>messaging about those meetings that may come from the White House,

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<v Speaker 2>And how's that back and forth playing with voters that's next.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Kate Sullivan has been describing the mixed messages coming

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<v Speaker 2>out of the US and Iran about pretty much everything

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<v Speaker 2>related to this conflict. The US says one thing, Iran

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<v Speaker 2>says another. So I wanted to ask her is this strategic?

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<v Speaker 2>Is this power struggle? Is this a natural byproduct of

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<v Speaker 2>chaos and confusion?

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<v Speaker 1>It might be all of the above, yes, And okay,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a great question because what we keep hearing from

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<v Speaker 1>the White House. I've been in a few briefings with

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<v Speaker 1>Caroline Levett, who has said what we're hearing from Iran

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<v Speaker 1>publicly is very different from what we're hearing from them privately.

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<v Speaker 1>There are a lot of contradictory messages. The President will say,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Iran has agreed to do this, or they're

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<v Speaker 1>even just the talks that are supposed to take place

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<v Speaker 1>in the coming days. He said, you know that they're

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<v Speaker 1>taking place. Iran says those talks were never actually confirmed.

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<v Speaker 1>So just even like agreeing to have the talks, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>there's so much flying around it is overwhelming. I think

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<v Speaker 1>for everybody to try to get a handle on what

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<v Speaker 1>is actually happening. It feels like every time the President

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<v Speaker 1>says Iran has communicated this to us, and this is

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<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen, it's trickled through state media that

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<v Speaker 1>that is not the case. And so the President, he famously,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, considers himself a powerful negotiator, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>part of the deal, it's a big part of his

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<v Speaker 1>public persona and image and reputation. There is some thought

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<v Speaker 1>that goes into, you know, like what is the public

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<v Speaker 1>messaging here in terms of what is the pressure that

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<v Speaker 1>we can put on them publicly. Perhaps they have not

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<v Speaker 1>actually agreed to this, but if we say that they have,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm just curious how jd. Vance is going to

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<v Speaker 1>explain what happened in those talks versus how the Iranians

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<v Speaker 1>are going to say what happened in those talks, And

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<v Speaker 1>whether you know, the ceasefire is going to get extended

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<v Speaker 1>or we're still going to be back to square one basically.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, as someone who is reported on this White

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<v Speaker 2>House spoken with the President, I'm assuming you've got some

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<v Speaker 2>insider sources. Is this kind of a mess right now?

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<v Speaker 2>Is their strategy happeningneath the seeming chaos.

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<v Speaker 1>I learned a long time ago to never predict anything

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<v Speaker 1>with certainty when it comes to Donald Trump, and I

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<v Speaker 1>do think that there is a real desire by the

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<v Speaker 1>White House, by the President to find an off ramp

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<v Speaker 1>here and try to wrap this up as soon as possible.

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<v Speaker 3>Relative to other war the President.

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<v Speaker 1>Keeps pointing out, you know, the Vietnam War was so

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<v Speaker 1>much longer, as was the Hunters. Right, we have been

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<v Speaker 1>in this for a while now, but I think there

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<v Speaker 1>is a real desire by the White House to try

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<v Speaker 1>to figure out how to walk away with this and

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<v Speaker 1>declare victory in some way. I think regardless of what

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<v Speaker 1>happens and what the Iranians agree to, there will be

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<v Speaker 1>a great deal of spin about what the US got

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<v Speaker 1>out of this war as he tries to justify it

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<v Speaker 1>to the American people. Again, it's a very unpopular war.

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of people who voted for him

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<v Speaker 1>are confus used about why the US is involved in

0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:05.320
<v Speaker 1>this in the first place. And we've seen a lot

0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:09.720
<v Speaker 1>of people who voted for the president, conservative podcasters and

0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:11.559
<v Speaker 1>influencers and just people online saying.

0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:13.280
<v Speaker 3>This is not what we voted for.

0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:15.400
<v Speaker 1>We voted for a president who said that he was

0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 1>not going to you know, no new wars.

0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:20.120
<v Speaker 3>Get us out of wars.

0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 1>And I think the White House is very aware of

0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:26.760
<v Speaker 1>the criticism that they're getting because it's just it's becoming

0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:28.080
<v Speaker 1>louder and louder.

0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.520
<v Speaker 2>How do you expect all of this back and forth

0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.240
<v Speaker 2>and the attack on Iran and everything happening right now

0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:38.559
<v Speaker 2>to play in the upcoming midterm elections?

0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:42.319
<v Speaker 1>Very critical and it will have a huge impact on

0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:45.400
<v Speaker 1>what the President is able to accomplish, what he's able

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:49.200
<v Speaker 1>to get through Congress, and just his agenda. I think

0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:51.600
<v Speaker 1>the White House and the President, i think are very

0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:56.600
<v Speaker 1>aware of the economic pain points that high gas prices

0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.800
<v Speaker 1>and how people are really feeling that the unpopularity of

0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:00.480
<v Speaker 1>the war.

0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:02.840
<v Speaker 3>It could potentially.

0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.760
<v Speaker 1>Have a huge impact on the mid terms. If you remember,

0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:08.680
<v Speaker 1>gas prices was a big part of this where the

0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:11.560
<v Speaker 1>President was at the beginning touting you know, we've had

0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 1>lower gas prices than under Biden, and this is this

0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:17.200
<v Speaker 1>is a big selling point. Now it's still over four

0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.680
<v Speaker 1>dollars a gallon, and we're hearing mixed messages from top

0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 1>cabinet officials about when that might go down because frankly,

0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 1>they don't. It depends on what's what's happening with the

0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.440
<v Speaker 1>straight of horror moves and the war, and they don't

0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 1>know what's going to happen there.

0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.080
<v Speaker 2>Sixty seven percent of Americans now disapprove of the way

0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.000
<v Speaker 2>Trump is handling the war with Iran. That is, according

0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:42.360
<v Speaker 2>to a new poll from NBC. The same share, sixty

0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:45.720
<v Speaker 2>seven percent also said the US is on the wrong track.

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 2>That's up from sixty percent a year ago. Kate traveled

0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:51.720
<v Speaker 2>with the President last week as he attempted to shift

0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 2>focus to domestic issues. He held a round table in

0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:58.600
<v Speaker 2>Las Vegas on his initiative to eliminate taxes on tips.

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:02.240
<v Speaker 1>Thanks to our cutch it the economy is booming. Our

0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:04.880
<v Speaker 1>economy is booming. You know, you don't read about it.

0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:07.280
<v Speaker 1>You don't see it so much because of what's going

0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 1>on in Iran, which is really you know, there was

0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>a very clear attempt at trying to pivot the conversation

0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:18.720
<v Speaker 1>to you know, domestic politics and the economy. And it's

0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:22.160
<v Speaker 1>a pivot that we've seen tempted several times. You know,

0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 1>I feel like every few.

0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:26.760
<v Speaker 2>Weeks, mean, every politician tries to pivot right exactly but

0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.040
<v Speaker 2>it tail as old as politics.

0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:32.520
<v Speaker 1>Exactly exactly, and it's just I think the people around

0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:36.400
<v Speaker 1>Trump and his top officials are really eager to have

0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:39.640
<v Speaker 1>that be the messaging. But of course there's no breaking

0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:43.480
<v Speaker 1>through when these like massive headlines about the Iran war

0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:46.400
<v Speaker 1>are really dominating. You know, one person close to the

0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:48.280
<v Speaker 1>White House was telling me, you know, there's just you

0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:50.960
<v Speaker 1>cannot control when he gets in front of the cameras,

0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:52.800
<v Speaker 1>what he's going to say, what he's going to get

0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:53.360
<v Speaker 1>asked about.

0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:55.320
<v Speaker 3>And the implications are huge.

0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:58.920
<v Speaker 1>It is a critical electioneers, of course, not a presidential electioneer,

0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.480
<v Speaker 1>but it will have a huge impact on what the

0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.240
<v Speaker 1>president is able to get done, depending on what if

0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:07.320
<v Speaker 1>Democrats are controlling the House or the Senate, or just

0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 1>what happens in the midterms.

0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:10.800
<v Speaker 2>Kate Sulivin, thank you so much for talking with us.

0:16:11.040 --> 0:16:11.800
<v Speaker 3>Thanks for having me.

0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:18.640
<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Stacy Bannocksmith.

0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:21.760
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0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:24.560
<v Speaker 2>to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe to date at

0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:28.760
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0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:31.240
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0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:33.920
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0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:36.240
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.